Success, failure and ambiguity of the dilution effect among competitors

Bat species assemblage predicts coronavirus prevalence

Anthropogenic disturbances and the subsequent loss of biodiversity are altering species abundances and communities. Since species vary in their pathogen competence, spatio-temporal changes in host assemblages may lead to changes in disease dynamics. We explore how longitudinal changes in bat species assemblages affect the disease dynamics of coronaviruses (CoVs) in more than 2300 cave-dwelling bats captured over two years from five caves in Ghana. This reveals uneven CoV infection patterns between closely related species, with the alpha-CoV 229E-like and SARS-related beta-CoV 2b emerging as multi-host pathogens. Prevalence and infection likelihood for both phylogenetically distinct CoVs is influenced by the abundance of competent species and naïve subadults. Broadly, bat species vary in CoV competence, and highly competent species are more common in less diverse communities, leading to increased CoV prevalence in less diverse bat assemblages. In line with the One Health framework, our work supports the notion that biodiversity conservation may be the most proactive measure to prevent the spread of pathogens with zoonotic potential.

Inconsistent dilution: experimental but not field evidence for a dilution effect in Daphnia-bacteria interactions

The dilution effect hypothesis, which suggests greater host biodiversity can reduce infectious disease transmission, occurs in many systems but is not universal. Most studies only investigate the dilution of a single parasite in a community, but many host communities have multiple parasites circulating. We studied a zooplankton host community with prior support for a dilution effect in laboratory- and field-based studies of a fungal parasite, Metschnikowia bicuspidata. We used paired experiments and field studies to ask whether dilution also occurred for a bacterial parasite, Pasteuria ramosa. We hypothesized that the similarities between the parasites might mean the dilution pattern seen in Metschnikowia would also be seen in Pasteuria. However, because Daphnia-Pasteuria interactions have strong host-parasite genotype specificity, dilution may be less likely if diluter host genotypes vary in their capacity to dilute Pasteuria. In a lab experiment, Pasteuria prevalence in susceptible Daphnia dentifera was reduced strongly by higher densities of D. pulicaria and marginally by higher densities of D. retrocurva. In a second experiment, different D. pulicaria genotypes had a similar capacity to dilute both Metschnikowia and Pasteuria, suggesting that Pasteuria's strong host-parasite genotype specificity should not prevent dilution. However, we found no evidence of an impact of the dilution effect on the size of Pasteuria epidemics in D. dentifera in Midwestern U.S. lakes. Our finding that a second parasite infecting the same host community does not show a similar dilution effect in the field suggests the impact of biodiversity can differ even among parasites in the same host community.

Is there a sicker sex? Dose relationships modify male-female differences in infection prevalence

Throughout the animal kingdom, there are striking differences in the propensity of one sex or the other to become infected. However, precisely when we should expect males or females to be the sicker sex remains unclear. A major barrier to answering this question is that very few studies have considered how the susceptibility of males and females changes across the full range of pathogen doses encountered in nature. Without quantifying this 'dose-susceptibility' relationship, we have likely underestimated the scope for sex differences to arise. Here, we use the Daphnia magnia-Pasteuria ramosa system to reveal that sex differences in susceptibility are entirely dose-dependent, with pathogens having a higher probability of successfully establishing an infection in mature males at low doses, but mature females at high doses. The scope for male-female differences to emerge is therefore much greater than previously appreciated-extending to sex differences in the upper limits to infection success, per-propagule infectivity risks and density-dependent pathogen behaviour. Applying this expanded scope across the animal kingdom will help us understand when and why a sicker sex emerges, and the implications for diseases in nature-where sex ratios, age structure and pathogen densities vary drastically.

Host-pathogen interactions under pressure: A review and meta-analysis of stress-mediated effects on disease dynamics

Human activities have increased the intensity and frequency of natural stressors and created novel stressors, altering host-pathogen interactions and changing the risk of emerging infectious diseases. Despite the ubiquity of such anthropogenic impacts, predicting the directionality of outcomes has proven challenging. Here, we conduct a review and meta-analysis to determine the primary mechanisms through which stressors affect host-pathogen interactions and to evaluate the impacts stress has on host fitness (survival and fecundity) and pathogen infectivity (prevalence and intensity). We assessed 891 effect sizes from 71 host species (representing seven taxonomic groups) and 78 parasite taxa from 98 studies. We found that infected and uninfected hosts had similar sensitivity to stressors and that responses varied according to stressor type. Specifically, limited resources compromised host fecundity and decreased pathogen intensity, while abiotic environmental stressors (e.g., temperature and salinity) decreased host survivorship and increased pathogen intensity, and pollution increased mortality but decreased pathogen prevalence. We then used our meta-analysis results to develop susceptible-infected theoretical models to illustrate scenarios where infection rates are expected to increase or decrease in response to resource limitations or environmental stress gradients. Our results carry implications for conservation and disease emergence and reveal areas for future work.

Differential gene expression in response to fungal pathogen exposure in the aquatic invertebrate, Daphnia dentifera

While vertebrate immune systems are appreciated for their complexity and adaptability, invertebrate immunity is often considered to be less complex. However, immune responses in many invertebrates likely involve sophisticated processes. Interactions between the crustacean host Daphnia dentifera and its fungal pathogen Metschnikowia bicuspidata provide an excellent model for exploring the mechanisms underlying crustacean immunity. To explore the genomic basis of immunity in Daphnia, we used RNA-sequencing technology to quantify differential gene expression between individuals of a single host genotype exposed or unexposed to M. bicuspidata over 24 h. Transcriptomic analyses showed that the number of differentially expressed genes between the control (unexposed) and experimental (exposed) groups increased over time. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed that differentially expressed genes were enriched for immune-related molecules and processes, such as cuticle development, prostaglandin, and defense response processes. Our findings provide a suite of immunologically relevant genes and suggest the presence of a rapidly upregulated immune response involving the cuticle in Daphnia. Studies involving gene expression responses to pathogen exposure shine a light on the processes occurring during the course of infection. By leveraging knowledge on the genetic basis for immunity, immune mechanisms can be more thoroughly understood to refine our understanding of disease spread within invertebrate populations.

Interspecific host competition and parasite virulence evolution

Virulence, the harm to hosts caused by parasite infection, can be selected for by several ecological factors acting synergistically or antagonistically. Here, we focus on the potential for interspecific host competition to shape virulence through such a network of effects. We first summarize how host natural mortality, body mass changes, population density and community diversity affect virulence evolution. We then introduce an initial conceptual framework highlighting how these host factors, which change during host competition, may drive virulence evolution via impacts on life-history trade-offs. We argue that the multi-faceted nature of both interspecific host competition and virulence evolution still requires consideration and experimentation to disentangle contrasting mechanisms. It also necessitates a differential treatment for parasites with various transmission strategies. However, such a comprehensive approach focusing on the role of interspecific host competition is essential to understand the processes driving the evolution of virulence in a tangled bank.

Concurrent dilution and amplification effects in an intraguild predation eco-epidemiological model

The dilution and amplification effects are important concepts in the field of zoonotic diseases. While the dilution effect predicts that pathogen prevalence is negatively correlated with increased species diversity, the opposite trend is observed when the amplification effect occurs. Understanding how interspecific interactions such as predation and competition within a community influence disease transmission is highly relevant. We explore the conditions under which the dilution and amplification effects arise, using compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We formulate an intraguild predation model where each species is divided into two compartments: susceptible and infected individuals. We obtained that increasing predation increases the disease transmission potential of the predator and the density of infected individuals, but decreases the disease transmission potential of the prey, as well as their density. Also, we found that interspecific competition always helps to decrease the number of infected individuals in the population of the two species. Therefore, dilution and amplification effects can be observed simultaneously but depending on different types of cological interactions.

Spatial scale-dependent dilution effects of biodiversity on plant diseases in grasslands

The rapid biodiversity losses of the Anthropocene have motivated ecologists to understand how biodiversity affects infectious diseases. Spatial scale is thought to moderate negative biodiversity-disease relationships (i.e., dilution effects) in zoonotic diseases, whereas evidence from plant communities for an effect of scale remains limited, especially at local scales where the mechanisms (e.g., encounter reduction) underlying dilution effects actually work. Here, we tested how spatial scale affects the direction and magnitude of biodiversity-disease relationships. We utilized a 10-year-old nitrogen addition experiment in a Tibetan alpine meadow, with 0, 5, 10, and 15 g/m² nitrogen addition treatments. Within the treatment plots, we arranged a total of 216 quadrats (of either 0.125 × 0.125 m, 0.25 × 0.25 m or 0.5 × 0.5 m size) to test how the sample area affects the relationship between plant species richness and foliar fungal disease severity. We found that the dilution effects were stronger in the 0.125 × 0.125 m and 0.25 × 0.25 m quadrats, compared with 0.5 × 0.5 m quadrats. There was a significant interaction between species richness and nitrogen addition in the 0.125 × 0.125 m and 0.25 × 0.25 m quadrats, indicating that a dilution effect was more easily observed under higher levels of nitrogen addition. Based on multigroup structural equation models, we found that even accounting for the direct impact of nitrogen addition (i.e., "nitrogen-disease hypothesis"), the dilution effect still worked at the 0.125 × 0.125 m scale. Overall, these findings suggest that spatial scale directly determines the occurrence of dilution effects, and can partly explain the observed variation in biodiversity-disease relationships in grasslands. Next-generation frameworks for predicting infectious diseases under rapid biodiversity loss scenarios need to incorporate spatial information.

Parasite dilution improves lamb growth more than does the complementarity of forage niches in a mesic pasture grazed by sheep and cattle

Agroecological practices can improve the functioning of livestock farming systems by optimizing their underlying biological processes. Sheep/cattle mixed-grazing is an example of such a practice in which sheep grazing with cattle can achieve a higher liveweight gain (LWG), than sheep grazing alone. We conducted an experiment to assess the relative roles of parasite dilution and forage niche complementarity in improving sheep LWGs. We used continuous grazing and compared the LWGs of 5- to 9-month ewe lambs, grazing alone or with heifers, at two contrasting sheep/cattle ratios (~50/50% and 20/80% in livestock units). The animals were not treated for strongyles (gastrointestinal parasites) before or during the experiment. We assessed parasitism by counting the number of strongyle eggs excreted per gram of feces (EPG) and evaluated the forage niche complementarity through observations of feeding behavior, combined with measurements of fecal nitrogen content (N). We observed that i) the diet was moderately improved by mixed-grazing (+4% of dicots and +11% of young vegetative grass at most, but these improvement were not statistically significant (resp. P=0.28 and P=0.35); ii) N levels were not significantly different across treatments (~2%; P=0.75); iii) EPGs were ~50% lower for mixed-grazing than for monospecific grazing (545 and 716 vs. 1278, P<0.01), iv) LWGs were much higher for mixed-grazing than for monospecific grazing (~40 g per day higher, P<0.001); and v) LWGs and EPGs did not significantly differ between the two sheep/cattle ratios studied (resp. P=0.91 and P=0.56). We thus attributed most of the improved ewe lamb LWGs in our experiment to parasite dilution rather than to forage niche complementarity. In addition, the similar EPGs and LWGs observed in mixed-grazing suggest that the benefits of this practice can be obtained easily, i.e. over a wide range of sheep/cattle ratios. Based on the definition of the adjective operable (‘capable of being put into use, operation or practice’), we also conclude that mixed-grazing seems an operable practice from a biological viewpoint.

Host competence, interspecific competition and vector preference interact to determine the vector-borne infection ecology

Understanding how ecological interactions affect vector-borne disease dynamics is crucial in the context of rapid biodiversity loss and increased emerging vector-borne diseases. Although there have been many studies on the impact of interspecific competition and host competence on disease dynamics, few of them have addressed the case of a vector-borne disease. Using a simple compartment model with two competing host species and one vector, we investigated the combined effects of vector preference, host competence, and interspecific competition on disease risk in a vector-borne system. Our research demonstrated that disease transmission dynamics in multi-host communities are more complex than anticipated. Vector preference and differences in host competence shifted the direction of the effect of competition on community disease risk, yet interspecific competition quantitatively but not qualitatively changed the effect of vector preference on disease risk. Our work also identified the conditions of the dilution effect and amplification effect in frequency-dependent transmission mode, and we discovered that adding vector preference and interspecific competition into a simple two-host-one-vector model altered the outcomes of how increasing species richness affects disease risk. Our work explains some of the variation in outcomes in previous empirical and theoretical studies on the dilution effect.

An eco-epidemiological modeling approach to investigate dilution effect in two different tick-borne pathosystems

Disease (re)emergence appears to be driven by biodiversity decline and environmental change. As a result, it is increasingly important to study host-pathogen interactions within the context of their ecology and evolution. The dilution effect is the concept that higher biodiversity decreases pathogen transmission. It has been observed especially in zoonotic vector-borne pathosystems, yet evidence against it has been found. In particular, it is still debated how the community (dis)assembly assumptions and the degree of generalism of vectors and pathogens affect the direction of the biodiversity-pathogen transmission relationship. The aim of this study was to use empirical data and mechanistic models to investigate dilution mechanisms in two rodent-tick-pathogen systems differing in their vector degree of generalism. A community was assembled to include ecological interactions that expand from purely additive to purely substitutive. Such systems are excellent candidates to analyze the link between vector ecology, community (dis)assembly dynamics, and pathogen transmission. To base our mechanistic models on empirical data, rodent live-trapping, including tick sampling, was conducted in Wales across two seasons for three consecutive years. We have developed a deterministic single-vector, multi-host compartmental model that includes ecological relationships with non-host species, uniquely integrating theoretical and observational approaches. To describe pathogen transmission across a gradient of community diversity, the model was populated with parameters describing five different scenarios differing in ecological complexity; each based around one of the pathosystems: Ixodes ricinus (generalist tick)-Borrelia burgdorferi and I. trianguliceps (small mammals specialist tick)-Babesia microti. The results suggested that community composition and interspecific dynamics affected pathogen transmission with different dilution outcomes depending on the vector degree of generalism. The model provides evidence that dilution and amplification effects are not mutually exclusive in the same community but depend on vector ecology and the epidemiological output considered (i.e., the "risk" of interest). In our scenarios, more functionally diverse communities resulted in fewer infectious rodents, supporting the dilution effect. In the pathosystem with generalist vector we identified a hump shaped relationship between diversity and infections in hosts, while for that characterized by specialist tick, this relationship was more complex and more dependent upon specific parameter values.

Transmission potential of human schistosomes can be driven by resource competition among snail intermediate hosts

Predicting and disrupting transmission of human parasites from wildlife hosts or vectors remains challenging because ecological interactions can influence their epidemiological traits. Human schistosomes, parasitic flatworms that cycle between freshwater snails and humans, typify this challenge. Human exposure risk, given water contact, is driven by the production of free-living cercariae by snail populations. Conventional epidemiological models and management focus on the density of infected snails under the assumption that all snails are equally infectious. However, individual-level experiments contradict this assumption, showing increased production of schistosome cercariae with greater access to food resources. We built bioenergetics theory to predict how resource competition among snails drives the temporal dynamics of transmission potential to humans and tested these predictions with experimental epidemics and demonstrated consistency with field observations. This resource-explicit approach predicted an intense pulse of transmission potential when snail populations grow from low densities, i.e., when per capita access to resources is greatest, due to the resource-dependence of cercarial production. The experiment confirmed this prediction, identifying a strong effect of infected host size and the biomass of competitors on per capita cercarial production. A field survey of 109 waterbodies also found that per capita cercarial production decreased as competitor biomass increased. Further quantification of snail densities, sizes, cercarial production, and resources in diverse transmission sites is needed to assess the epidemiological importance of resource competition and support snail-based disruption of schistosome transmission. More broadly, this work illustrates how resource competition can sever the correspondence between infectious host density and transmission potential.

How do noncompetent hosts cause dilution of parasitism? Testing hypotheses for native and invasive mosquitoes

Parasite dilution occurs in varied systems, via multiple potential mechanisms. We used laboratory manipulation and field surveys to test for invader-induced parasite dilution via two specific mechanisms: host-host competition and encounter reduction. In the laboratory, single Aedes triseriatus larvae were exposed to one of eight combinations of: parasitic Ascogregarina barretti, +/-1 cohabiting Aedes albopictus larva during parasite exposure, and +/-1 cohabiting A. albopictus larva after infectious parasite removal. Larval infection intensity (predicted to decrease via dilution by encounter reduction) was not significantly affected by A. albopictus. Adult infection prevalence and intensity (predicted to decrease via dilution by host-host competition) were significantly greater with A. albopictus, suggesting parasite amplification by interspecific competition, an effect potentially mediated by competition increasing A. triseriatus development time. In the field, we tested for effects of potential dilution host abundances on prevalence and abundance of A. barretti in A. triseriatus larvae. Piecewise path analysis yielded no evidence of host-host competition impacting parasitism in the field, but instead indicated a significant direct negative effect of Aedes spp. abundance on parasite abundance in A. triseriatus, which is consistent with dilution via encounter reduction in the field, but only in tree holes, not in man-made containers. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that a noncompetent invader can alter the native host-parasite relationship, but our laboratory and field data yield differing results. This difference is likely due to laboratory experiment testing for per capita effects of dilution hosts on parasitism, but field analysis testing for effects of dilution host abundance on parasitism. Individually, host-host competition with the invader amplifies, rather than dilutes, parasite success. In contrast, our path analysis is consistent with the hypothesis that dilution of parasitism results from increased abundance of noncompetent hosts in the field.

Community-level prevalence of a forest pathogen, not individual-level disease risk, declines with tree diversity

Understanding why diversity sometimes limits disease is essential for managing outbreaks; however, mechanisms underlying this 'dilution effect' remain poorly understood. Negative diversity-disease relationships have previously been detected in plant communities impacted by an emerging forest disease, sudden oak death. We used this focal system to empirically evaluate whether these relationships were driven by dilution mechanisms that reduce transmission risk for individuals or from the fact that disease was averaged across the host community. We integrated laboratory competence measurements with plant community and symptom data from a large forest monitoring network. Richness increased disease risk for bay laurel trees, dismissing possible dilution mechanisms. Nonetheless, richness was negatively associated with community-level disease prevalence because the disease was aggregated among hosts that vary in disease susceptibility. Aggregating observations (which is surprisingly common in other dilution effect studies) can lead to misinterpretations of dilution mechanisms and bias towards a negative diversity-disease relationship.

Dilution effects in disease ecology

For decades, people have reduced the transmission of pathogens by adding low‐quality hosts to managed environments like agricultural fields. More recently, there has been interest in whether similar ‘dilution effects’ occur in natural disease systems, and whether these effects are eroded as diversity declines. For some pathogens of plants, humans and other animals, the highest‐quality hosts persist when diversity is lost, so that high‐quality hosts dominate low‐diversity communities, resulting in greater pathogen transmission. Meta‐analyses reveal that these natural dilution effects are common. However, studying them remains challenging due to limitations on the ability of researchers to manipulate many disease systems experimentally, difficulties of acquiring data on host quality and confusion about what should and should not be considered a dilution effect. Because dilution effects are widely used in managed disease systems and have been documented in a variety of natural disease systems, their existence should not be considered controversial. Important questions remain about how frequently they occur and under what conditions to expect them. There is also ongoing confusion about their relationships to both pathogen spillover and general biogeographical correlations between diversity and disease, which has resulted in an inconsistent and confusing literature. Progress will require rigorous and creative research.

Genotypic variation in an ecologically important parasite is associated with host species, lake and spore size

Genetic variation in parasites has important consequences for host–parasite interactions. Prior studies of the ecologically important parasite Metschnikowia bicuspidata have suggested low genetic variation in the species. Here, we collected M. bicuspidata from two host species (Daphnia dentifera and Ceriodaphnia dubia) and two regions (Michigan and Indiana, USA). Within a lake, outbreaks tended to occur in one host species but not the other. Using microsatellite markers, we identified six parasite genotypes grouped within three distinct clades, one of which was rare. Of the two main clades, one was generally associated with D. dentifera, with lakes in both regions containing a single genotype. The other M. bicuspidata clade was mainly associated with C. dubia, with a different genotype dominating in each region. Despite these associations, both D. dentifera- and C. dubia-associated genotypes were found infecting both hosts in lakes. However, in lab experiments, the D. dentifera-associated genotype infected both D. dentifera and C. dubia, but the C. dubia-associated genotype, which had spores that were approximately 30% smaller, did not infect D. dentifera. We hypothesize that variation in spore size might help explain patterns of cross-species transmission. Future studies exploring the causes and consequences of variation in spore size may help explain patterns of infection and the maintenance of genotypic diversity in this ecologically important system.

Dose relationships can exacerbate, mute, or reverse the impact of heterospecific host density on infection prevalence

The likelihood an individual becomes infected depends on the community in which it is embedded. For environmentally transmitted parasites, host community composition can alter host density, the density of parasites that hosts encounter in the environment, and the dose to which hosts are subsequently exposed. While some multi-host theory incorporates some of these factors (e.g., competition among hosts), it does not currently consider the nonlinear relationships between parasite exposure dose and per-propagule infectivity (dose-infectivity relationships), between exposure dose and infected host mortality (dose-mortality relationships), and between exposure dose and parasite propagule excretion (dose-excretion relationships). This makes it difficult to predict the impact of host species on one another's likelihood of infection. To understand the implications of these nonlinear dose relationships for multi-host communities, we first performed a meta-analysis on published dose-infectivity experiments to quantify the proportion of accelerating, linear, or decelerating dose-infectivity relationships; we found that most experiments demonstrated decelerating dose-infectivity relationships. We then explored how dose-infectivity, dose-mortality, and dose-excretion relationships might alter the impact of heterospecific host density on infectious propagule density, infection prevalence, and density of a focal host using two-host, one-parasite models. We found that dose relationships either decreased the magnitude of the impact of heterospecific host density on propagule density and infection prevalence via negative feedback loops (decelerating dose-infectivity relationships, positive dose-mortality relationships, and negative dose-excretion relationships), or increased the magnitude of the impact of heterospecific host density on infection prevalence via positive feedback loops (accelerating dose-infectivity relationships and positive dose-excretion relationships). Further, positive dose-mortality relationships resulted in hosts that traditionally decrease disease (e.g., low competence, strong competitors) increasing infection prevalence, and vice versa. Finally, we found that dose relationships can create positive feedback loops that facilitate friendly competition (i.e., increased heterospecific density has a positive effect on focal host density because the reduction in disease outweighs the negative effects of interspecific competition). This suggests that without taking dose relationships into account, we may incorrectly predict the effect of heterospecific host interactions, and thus host community composition, on environmentally transmitted parasites.

Size-asymmetric competition among snails disrupts production of human-infectious Schistosoma mansoni cercariae

Parasites can harm hosts and influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. However, parasites are reciprocally affected by population- and community-level dynamics. Understanding feedbacks between infection dynamics and larger-scale epidemiological and ecological processes could improve predictions and reveal novel control methods. We evaluated how exploitative resource competition among hosts, a fundamental aspect of population biology, influences within-host infection dynamics of the widespread human parasite Schistosoma mansoni in its intermediate host, Biomphalaria glabrata. We added size-dependent consumption of shared resources to a parameterized bioenergetics model to predict a priori the growth, parasite production, and survival of an infected focal host coexisting with an uninfected conspecific competitor in an experiment that varied competitor size. The model quantitatively anticipated that competitors disrupt growth and parasite production and that these effects increase with competitor size. Fitting the model to these data improved its match to host survivorship. Thus, resource competition alters infection dynamics, there are strong size asymmetries in these effects, and size-asymmetric resource competition effects on infection dynamics can be accurately predicted by bioenergetics theory. More broadly, this framework can assess parasite transmission and control in other contexts, such as in resource competitive host communities, or in response to eutrophication, food supplementation, or culling.

The dilution effect behind the scenes: testing the underlying assumptions of its mechanisms through quantifying the long-term dynamics and effects of a pathogen in multiple host species

Disentangling the mechanisms that mediate the relationships between species diversity and disease risk has both theoretical and applied implications. We employed a model system of rodents and their Mycoplasma pathogens, in which an extreme negative diversity-disease relationship was demonstrated, to test the assumptions underlying three mechanisms that may explain this field pattern. Through quantifying the long-term dynamics and effects of the pathogen in its three host species, we estimated the between-host differences in pathogen spreading and transmission potentials, and host recovery potential and vulnerability to infection. The results suggest that one of the hosts is a pathogen amplifier and the other two hosts function as diluters. Considering the similarity in infection success and intensity among hosts, and the failure to detect any pathogen-induced damage, we could not validate the assumption underlying the hypotheses that diluters reduce the overall transmission or increase the mortality of infected hosts in the system. Instead, the results demonstrate that diluters clear the infection faster than amplifiers, supporting the possibility that the addition of diluters to the community may reduce the overall number of infected hosts through this mechanism. This study highlights the contribution of experimental studies that simultaneously explore different aspects of host-pathogen interactions in multiple hosts, in diversity-disease research.

The Context-Dependent Effects of Host Competence, Competition, and Pathogen Transmission Mode on Disease Prevalence

AbstractBiodiversity in communities is changing globally, including the gain and loss of host species in host-pathogen communities. Increased host diversity can cause infection prevalence in a focal host to increase (amplification) or decrease (dilution). However, it is unclear what general rules govern the context-dependent effects, in part because theories for pathogens with different transmission modes have developed largely independently. Using a two-host model, we explore how the pathogen transmission mode and characteristics of a second host (disease competence and competitive ability) influence disease prevalence in a focal host. Our work shows how the theories for pathogens with environmental transmission, density-dependent direct transmission, and frequency-dependent direct transmission can be unified. Our work also identifies general rules about how host and pathogen characteristics affect amplification/dilution. For example, higher-competence hosts promote amplification, unless they are strong interspecific competitors; strong interspecific competitors promote dilution, unless they are large sources of new infections; and dilution occurs under frequency-dependent direct transmission more than density-dependent direct transmission, unless interspecific host competition is sufficiently strong. Our work helps explain how the characteristics of the pathogen and a second host affect disease prevalence in a focal host.

Using sensitivity analysis to identify factors promoting higher versus lower infection prevalence in multi-host communities

Relationships between host species richness and levels of disease in a focal host are likely to be context-dependent, depending on the characteristics of which particular host species are present in a community. I use a multi-host epidemiological model with environmental transmission to explore how the characteristics of the host species (e.g., competence and competitive ability), host density, and the pathogen transmission mechanism affect the proportion of infected individuals (i.e., infection prevalence) in a focal host. My sensitivity-based approach identifies the indirect pathways through which specific ecological and epidemiological processes affect focal host infection prevalence. This in turn yields predictions about the context-dependent rules governing whether increased host species richness increases (amplifies) or decreases (dilutes) infection prevalence in a focal host. For example, in many cases, amplification and dilution are predicted to occur when added host species are sources or sinks of infectious propagules, respectively. However, if the added host species have strong and asymmetric competitive effects on resident host species, then amplification and dilution are predicted to occur when the added host species have stronger competitive effects on resident host species that are sources or sinks of infectious propagules, respectively. My results also predict that greater dilution and less amplification is more likely to occur under frequency-dependent direct transmission than density-dependent direct transmission when (i) the added hosts have lower competence than resident host species and (ii) interspecific competition between the added host species and resident host species is lower; the opposite conditions promote greater amplification and less dilution under frequency-dependent direct transmission. This work helps identify and explain the mechanisms shaping the context-dependent relationships between host species richness and disease in multi-host communities.

Pollinator community species richness dilutes prevalence of multiple viruses within multiple host species

Most pathogens are embedded in complex communities composed of multiple interacting hosts, but we are still learning how community-level factors, such as host diversity, abundance, and composition, contribute to pathogen spread for many host-pathogen systems. Evaluating relationships among multiple pathogens and hosts may clarify whether particular host or pathogen traits consistently drive links between community factors and pathogen prevalence. Pollinators are a good system to test how community composition influences pathogen spread because pollinator communities are extremely variable and contain several multi-host pathogens transmitted on shared floral resources. We conducted a field survey of four pollinator species to test the prevalence of three RNA viruses (deformed wing virus, black queen cell virus, and sacbrood virus) among pollinator communities with variable species richness, abundance, and composition. All three viruses showed a similar pattern of prevalence among hosts. Apis mellifera and Bombus impatiens had significantly higher viral prevalence than Lasioglossum spp. and Eucera pruinosa. In each species, lower virus prevalence was most strongly linked with greater pollinator community species richness. In contrast, pollinator abundance, species-specific pollinator abundance, and community composition were not associated with virus prevalence. Our results support a consistent dilution effect for multiple viruses and host species. Pollinators in species-rich communities had lower viral prevalence than pollinators from species-poor communities, when accounting for differences in pollinator abundance. Species-rich communities likely had lower viral prevalence because species-rich communities contained more native bee species likely to be poor viral hosts than species-poor communities, and all communities contained the highly competent hosts A. mellifera and B. impatiens. Interestingly, the strength of the dilution effect was not consistent among hosts. Instead, host species with low viral prevalence exhibited weaker dilution effects compared to hosts with high viral prevalence. Therefore, host species susceptibility and competence for each virus may contribute to variation in the strength of dilution effects. This study expands biodiversity-disease studies to the pollinator-virus system, finding consistent evidence of the dilution effect among multiple similar pathogens that infect "replicate" host communities.

Microgeographic Wing-Shape Variation in Aedes albopictus and Aedes scapularis (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations

Aedes albopictus and Aedes scapularis are vectors of several arboviruses, including the dengue, chikungunya, and Rocio virus infection. While Ae. albopictus is a highly invasive species native to Asia and has been dispersed by humans to most parts of the world, Ae. scapularis is native to Brazil and is widely distributed in the southeast of the country. Both species are highly anthropophilic and are often abundant in places with high human population densities. Because of the great epidemiological importance of these two mosquitoes and the paucity of knowledge on how they have adapted to different urban built environments, we investigated the microgeographic population structure of these vector species in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, using wing geometric morphometrics. Females of Ae. albopictus and Ae. scapularis were collected in seven urban parks in the city. The right wings of the specimens were removed and digitized, and eighteen landmarks based on vein intersections in the wing venation patterns were used to assess cross-sectional variation in wing shape and size. The analyses revealed distinct results for Ae. albopictus and Ae. scapularis populations. While the former had less wing shape variation, the latter had more heterogeneity, indicating a higher degree of intraspecific variation. Our results indicate that microgeographic selective pressures exerted by different urban built environments have a distinct effect on wing shape patterns in the populations of these two mosquito species studied here.

Comparing the Indirect Effects between Exploiters in Predator-Prey and Host-Pathogen Systems

AbstractIn multipredator and multipathogen systems, exploiters interact indirectly via shared victim species. Interspecific prey competition and the degree of predator specialization are known to influence whether predators have competitive (i.e., (-,-)) or noncompetitive (i.e., (-,+) or (+,+)) indirect interactions. Much less is known about the population-level indirect interactions between pathogens that infect the same populations of host species. In this study, we use two-predator-two-prey and two-host-two-pathogen models to compare the indirect effects between predators with the indirect effects between pathogens. We focus on how the indirect interactions between pathogens are affected by the competitive abilities of susceptible and infected hosts, whether the pathogens are specialists or generalists, and the transmission pathway (direct vs. environmental transmission). In many cases, indirect effects between pathogens and predators follow similar patterns, for example, more positive indirect effects with increased interspecific competition between victim species. However, the indirect effects between pathogens can qualitatively differ, for example, more negative indirect effects with increased interspecific host competition. These contrasting patterns show that an important mechanistic difference between predatory and parasitic interactions (specifically, whether interactions are immediately lethal) can have important population-level effects on the indirect interactions between exploiters.

Deconstructing the Impact of Malaria Vector Diversity on Disease Risk

AbstractRecent years have seen significant progress in understanding the impact of host community assemblage on disease risk, yet diversity in disease vectors has rarely been investigated. Using published malaria and mosquito surveys from Kenya, we analyzed the relationship between malaria prevalence and multiple axes of mosquito diversity: abundance, species richness, and composition. We found a net amplification of malaria prevalence by vector species richness, a result of a strong direct positive association between richness and prevalence alongside a weak indirect negative association between the two, mediated through mosquito community composition. One plausible explanation of these patterns is species niche complementarity, whereby less competent vector species contribute to disease transmission by filling spatial or temporal gaps in transmission left by dominant vectors. A greater understanding of vector community assemblage and function, as well as any interactions between host and vector biodiversity, could offer insights to both fundamental and applied ecology.

Community context for mechanisms of disease dilution: insights from linking epidemiology and plant-soil feedback theory

In many natural systems, diverse host communities can reduce disease risk, though less is known about the mechanisms driving this "dilution effect." We relate feedback theory, which focuses on pathogen-mediated coexistence, to mechanisms of dilution derived from epidemiological models, with the central goal of gaining insights into host-pathogen interactions in a community context. We first compare the origin, structure, and application of epidemiological and feedback models. We then explore the mechanisms of dilution, which are grounded in single-pathogen, single-host epidemiological models, from the perspective of feedback theory. We also draw on feedback theory to examine how coinfecting pathogens, and pathogens that vary along a host specialist-generalist continuum, apply to dilution theory. By identifying synergies among the feedback and epidemiological approaches, we reveal ways in which organisms occupying different trophic levels contribute to diversity-disease relationships. Additionally, using feedbacks to distinguish dilution in disease incidence from dilution in the net effect of disease on host fitness allows us to articulate conditions under which definitions of dilution may not align. After ascribing dilution mechanisms to macro- or microorganisms, we propose ways in which each contributes to diversity-disease and productivity-diversity relationships. Our analyses lead to predictions that can guide future research efforts.

Resource fluctuations inhibit the reproduction and virulence of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni in its snail intermediate host

Resource availability can powerfully influence host-parasite interactions. However, we currently lack a mechanistic framework to predict how resource fluctuations alter individual infection dynamics. We address this gap with experiments manipulating resource supply and starvation for a human parasite, Schistosoma mansoni, and its snail intermediate host to test a hypothesis derived from mechanistic energy budget theory: resource fluctuations should reduce schistosome reproduction and virulence by inhibiting parasite ingestion of host biomass. Low resource supply caused hosts to remain small, reproduce less and produce fewer human-infectious cercariae. Periodic starvation also inhibited cercarial production and prevented infection-induced castration. The periodic starvation experiment also revealed substantial differences in fit between two bioenergetic model variants, which differ in their representation of host starvation. Simulations using the best-fit parameters of the winning model suggest that schistosome performance substantially declines with resource fluctuations with periods greater than 7 days. These experiments strengthen mechanistic theory, which can be readily scaled up to the population level to understand key feedbacks between resources, host population dynamics, parasitism and control interventions. Integrating resources with other environmental drivers of disease in an explicit bioenergetic framework could ultimately yield mechanistic predictions for many disease systems.

Towards common ground in the biodiversity-disease debate

The disease ecology community has struggled to come to consensus on whether biodiversity reduces or increases infectious disease risk, a question that directly affects policy decisions for biodiversity conservation and public health. Here, we summarize the primary points of contention regarding biodiversity–disease relationships and suggest that vector-borne, generalist wildlife and zoonotic pathogens are the types of parasites most likely to be affected by changes to biodiversity. One synthesis on this topic revealed a positive correlation between biodiversity and human disease burden across countries, but as biodiversity changed over time within these countries, this correlation became weaker and more variable. Another synthesis—a meta-analysis of generally smaller-scale experimental and field studies—revealed a negative correlation between biodiversity and infectious diseases (a dilution effect) in various host taxa. These results raise the question of whether biodiversity–disease relationships are more negative at smaller spatial scales. If so, biodiversity conservation at the appropriate scales might prevent wildlife and zoonotic diseases from increasing in prevalence or becoming problematic (general proactive approaches). Further, protecting natural areas from human incursion should reduce zoonotic disease spillover. By contrast, for some infectious diseases, managing particular species or habitats and targeted biomedical approaches (targeted reactive approaches) might outperform biodiversity conservation as a tool for disease control. Importantly, biodiversity conservation and management need to be considered alongside other disease management options. These suggested guiding principles should provide common ground that can enhance scientific and policy clarity for those interested in simultaneously improving wildlife and human health.

There has been intense debate as to whether biodiversity increases or reduces the risk of infectious disease. This Review is the result of researchers from both sides of the debate attempting to reach a consensus.

Measuring the shape of the biodiversity-disease relationship across systems reveals new findings and key gaps

Diverse host communities commonly inhibit the spread of parasites at small scales. However, the generality of this effect remains controversial. Here, we present the analysis of 205 biodiversity-disease relationships on 67 parasite species to test whether biodiversity-disease relationships are generally nonlinear, moderated by spatial scale, and sensitive to underrepresentation in the literature. Our analysis of the published literature reveals that biodiversity-disease relationships are generally hump-shaped (i.e., nonlinear) and biodiversity generally inhibits disease at local scales, but this effect weakens as spatial scale increases. Spatial scale is, however, related to study design and parasite type, highlighting the need for additional multiscale research. Few studies are unrepresentative of communities at low diversity, but missing data at low diversity from field studies could result in underreporting of amplification effects. Experiments appear to underrepresent high-diversity communities, which could result in underreporting of dilution effects. Despite context dependence, biodiversity loss at local scales appears to increase disease, suggesting that at local scales, biodiversity loss could negatively impact human and wildlife populations.

Quantifying the dilution effect for models in ecological epidemiology

The dilution effect, where an increase in biodiversity results in a reduction in the prevalence of an infectious disease, has been the subject of speculation and controversy. Conversely, an amplification effect occurs when increased biodiversity is related to an increase in prevalence. We explore the conditions under which these effects arise, using multi species compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We introduce three potential metrics for quantifying dilution and amplification, one based on infection prevalence in a focal host species, one based on the size of the infected subpopulation of that species and one based on the basic reproduction number. We introduce our approach in the simplest epidemiological setting with two species, and show that the existence and strength of a dilution effect is influenced strongly by the choices made to describe the system and the metric used to gauge the effect. We show that our method can be generalized to any number of species and to more complicated ecological and epidemiological dynamics. Our method allows a rigorous analysis of ecological systems where dilution effects have been postulated, and contributes to future progress in understanding the phenomenon of dilution in the context of infectious disease dynamics and infection risk.

Host traits and competitive ability jointly structure disease dynamics and community assembly

Parasitism and competition are both ubiquitous interactions in ecological communities. The ability of host species to interact directly via competition and indirectly through shared parasites suggests that host traits related to competition and parasitism are likely important in structuring communities and disease dynamics. Specifically, those host traits affecting competition and those mediating parasitism are often correlated either because of trade-offs (in resource acquisition or resource allocation) or condition dependence, yet the consequences of these trait relationships for community and epidemiological dynamics are poorly understood. We conducted a literature review of parasite-related host traits-competitive ability relationships. We found that transmission-competitive ability relationships were most often reported, and that superior competitors exhibited elevated transmission relative to their less-competitive counterparts in nearly 80% of the cases. We also found a significant number of virulence-competitive ability and parasite shedding-competitive ability relationships. We investigated these links by altering the relationship between host competitive ability and three parasite-related traits (transmission, virulence and parasite shedding rates) in a simple model, incorporating competitive asymmetries in a multi-host community. We show that these relationships can lead to a range of different communities. For example, depending on the strength and direction of these distinct trait relationships, we observed communities with anywhere from high parasite prevalence to complete parasite extinction, and either one, two or the maximum of three host species coexisting. Our results suggest that parasite-competitive ability relationships may be common in nature, that further integration of these relationships can produce novel and unexpected community and disease dynamics, and that generalizations may allow for the prediction of how parasitism and competition jointly structure disease and diversity in natural communities.

Coinfection Organizes Epidemiological Networks of Viruses and Hosts and Reveals Hubs of Transmission

Multiple virus infections affect the competence of host plants to transmit disease. The effects of coinfection on transmission are expected to produce ecologically complex pathogen and host-pathogen interactions. However, the prediction of disease risk will rely on untangling nonrandom from random patterns of infection to identify underlying processes that drive these interactions. Are the spatial distributions of infections in complex multispecies systems random or not? For the first time, we use an empirical evaluation of this basic but nontrivial question to test the hypothesis that coinfection contributes to (i) nonrandom ecological interactions between hosts and viruses and (ii) structuring infection distributions. We use a novel approach that decomposed the ecological interactions of 11 generalist viruses in 47 host species in four habitats of an agroecosystem into single-infection and coinfection "modes." Then, we relate ecological structuring in infection networks to the distribution of infection using generalized regression models. The network analyses of coinfection showed that virus-host interactions occurred more often than expected at random in one of the four habitats, Edge. A pattern of specific interactions was shared between Edge and the ecosystem, indicating scale invariance. The regression modeling also showed that the plant community characteristics of Edge were unique in explaining infection distributions. The results showed that the spatial distribution of infection at the ecosystem level was not only a species-specific phenomenon but also, strongly structured by specific virus-virus and host-virus interactions. The evidence of scale invariance and the special role of Edge as a reservoir suggest that ecological interactions were less strongly structured by community differences among habitats than by wider-scale processes and traits underlying the interactions. Addressing whether reservoir communities significantly contribute to epidemiological processes at the ecosystem scale is a promising avenue for future research.

Chance or choice? Understanding parasite selection and infection in multi-host communities

Ongoing debate over the relationship between biodiversity and disease risk underscores the need to develop a more mechanistic understanding of how changes in host community composition influence parasite transmission, particularly in complex communities with multiple hosts. A key challenge involves determining how motile parasites select among potential hosts and the degree to which this process shifts with community composition. Focusing on interactions between larval amphibians and the pathogenic trematode Ribeiroia ondatrae, we designed a novel, large-volume set of choice chambers to assess how the selectivity of free-swimming infectious parasites varied among five host species and in response to changes in assemblage composition (four different permutations). In a second set of trials, cercariae were allowed to contact and infect hosts, allowing comparison of host-parasite encounter rates (parasite choice) with infection outcomes (successful infections). Cercariae exhibited consistent preferences for specific host species that were independent of the community context; large-bodied amphibians, such as larval bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana), exhibited the highest level of parasite attraction. However, because host attractiveness was decoupled from susceptibility to infection, assemblage composition sharply affected both per-host infection as well as total infection (summed among co-occurring hosts). Species such as the non-native R. catesbeiana functioned as epidemiological 'sinks' or dilution hosts, attracting a disproportionate fraction of parasites relative to the number that established successfully, whereas Taricha granulosa and especially Pseudacris regilla supported comparatively more metacercariae relative to cercariae selection. These findings provide a framework for integrating information on parasite preference in combination with more traditional factors such as host competence and density to forecast how changes within complex communities will affect parasite transmission.

Assessing the direct and indirect effects of food provisioning and nutrient enrichment on wildlife infectious disease dynamics

Anthropogenic resource supplementation can shape wildlife disease directly by altering the traits and densities of hosts and parasites or indirectly by stimulating prey, competitor or predator species. We first assess the direct epidemiological consequences of supplementation, highlighting the similarities and differences between food provisioning and two widespread forms of nutrient input: agricultural fertilization and aquatic nutrient enrichment. We then review an aquatic disease system and a general model to assess whether predator and competitor species can enhance or overturn the direct effects of enrichment. All forms of supplementation can directly affect epidemics by increasing host population size or altering parasite production within hosts, but food provisioning is most likely to aggregate hosts and increase parasite transmission. However, if predators or competitors increase in response to supplementation, they could alter resource-fuelled outbreaks in focal hosts. We recommend identifying the traits of hosts, parasites or interacting species that best predict epidemiological responses to supplementation and evaluating the relative importance of these direct and indirect mechanisms. Theory and experiments should examine the timing of behavioural, physiological and demographic changes for realistic, variable scenarios of supplementation. A more integrative view of resource supplementation and wildlife disease could yield broadly applicable disease management strategies.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

Parasite rearing and infection temperatures jointly influence disease transmission and shape seasonality of epidemics

Seasonal epidemics erupt commonly in nature and are driven by numerous mechanisms. Here, we suggest a new mechanism that could determine the size and timing of seasonal epidemics: rearing environment changes the performance of parasites. This mechanism arises when the environmental conditions in which a parasite is produced impact its performance-independently from the current environment. To illustrate the potential for "rearing effects", we show how temperature influences infection risk (transmission rate) in a Daphnia-fungus disease system through both parasite rearing temperature and infection temperature. During autumnal epidemics, zooplankton hosts contact (eat) fungal parasites (spores) reared in a gradually cooling environment. To delineate the effect of rearing temperature from temperature at exposure and infection, we used lab experiments to parameterize a mechanistic model of transmission rate. We also evaluated the rearing effect using spores collected from epidemics in cooling lakes. We found that fungal spores were more infectious when reared at warmer temperatures (in the lab and in two of three lakes). Additionally, the exposure (foraging) rate of hosts increased with warmer infection temperatures. Thus, both mechanisms cause transmission rate to drop as temperature decreases over the autumnal epidemic season (from summer to winter). Simulations show how these temperature-driven changes in transmission rate can induce waning of epidemics as lakes cool. Furthermore, via thermally dependent transmission, variation in environmental cooling patterns can alter the size and shape of epidemics. Thus, the thermal environment drives seasonal epidemics through effects on hosts (exposure rate) and the infectivity of parasites (a rearing effect). Presently, the generality of parasite rearing effects remains unknown. Our results suggest that they may provide an important but underappreciated mechanism linking temperature to the seasonality of epidemics.

Scale dependencies and generalism in host use shape virus prevalence

Processes that generate the distribution of pathogens and their interactions with hosts are not insensitive to changes in spatial scale. Spatial scales and species traits are often selected intentionally, based on practical considerations, ignoring biases that the scale and type of observation may introduce. Specifically, these biases might change the interpretation of disease-diversity relationships that are reported as either 'dilution' or 'amplification' effects. Here, we combine field data of a host-pathogen community with empirical models to test the effects that (i) spatial scale and (ii) host range have on the relationship between plant-virus infection prevalence and diversity. We show that prevalence-diversity relationships are scale-dependent and can produce opposite effects associated with different habitats at sub-ecosystem scales. The total number of host species of each virus reflected generalism at the ecosystem scale. However, plasticity in host range resembled habitat-specific specialization and also changed model predictions. We show that habitat heterogeneity, ignored at larger (ecosystem) spatial scales, influences pathogen distributions. Hence, understanding disease distributions and the evolution of pathogens requires reconciling specific hypotheses of the study with an appropriate spatial scale, or scales, and consideration of traits, such as host range, that might strongly contribute to biotic interactions.

Rapid evolution rescues hosts from competition and disease but-despite a dilution effect-increases the density of infected hosts

Virulent parasites can depress the densities of their hosts. Taxa that reduce disease via dilution effects might alleviate this burden. However, 'diluter' taxa can also depress host densities through competition for shared resources. The combination of disease and interspecific competition could even drive hosts extinct. Then again, genetically variable host populations can evolve in response to both competitors and parasites. Can rapid evolution rescue host density from the harm caused by these ecological enemies? How might such evolution influence dilution effects or the size of epidemics? In a mesocosm experiment with planktonic hosts, we illustrate the joint harm of competition and disease: hosts with constrained evolutionary ability (limited phenotypic variation) suffered greatly from both. However, populations starting with broader phenotypic variation evolved stronger competitive ability during epidemics. In turn, enhanced competitive ability-driven especially by parasites-rescued host densities from the negative impacts of competition, disease, and especially their combination. Interspecific competitors reduced disease (supporting dilution effects) even when hosts rapidly evolved. However, this evolutionary response also elicited a potential problem. Populations that evolved enhanced competitive ability and maintained robust total densities also supported higher densities of infections. Thus, rapid evolution rescued host densities but also unleashed larger epidemics.

Ecological Complexity in Plant Virus Host Range Evolution

The host range of a plant virus is the number of species in which it can reproduce. Most studies of plant virus host range evolution have focused on the genetics of host-pathogen interactions. However, the distribution and abundance of plant viruses and their hosts do not always overlap, and these spatial and temporal discontinuities in plant virus-host interactions can result in various ecological processes that shape host range evolution. Recent work shows that the distributions of pathogenic and resistant genotypes, vectors, and other resources supporting transmission vary widely in the environment, producing both expected and unanticipated patterns. The distributions of all of these factors are influenced further by competitive effects, natural enemies, anthropogenic disturbance, the abiotic environment, and herbivory to mention some. We suggest the need for further development of approaches that (i) explicitly consider resource use and the abiotic and biotic factors that affect the strategies by which viruses exploit resources; and (ii) are sensitive across scales. Host range and habitat specificity will largely determine which phyla are most likely to be new hosts, but predicting which host and when it is likely to be infected is enormously challenging because it is unclear how environmental heterogeneity affects the interactions of viruses and hosts.

Temperature Drives Epidemics in a Zooplankton-Fungus Disease System: A Trait-Driven Approach Points to Transmission via Host Foraging

Climatic warming will likely have idiosyncratic impacts on infectious diseases, causing some to increase while others decrease or shift geographically. A mechanistic framework could better predict these different temperature-disease outcomes. However, such a framework remains challenging to develop, due to the nonlinear and (sometimes) opposing thermal responses of different host and parasite traits and due to the difficulty of validating model predictions with observations and experiments. We address these challenges in a zooplankton-fungus (Daphnia dentifera-Metschnikowia bicuspidata) system. We test the hypothesis that warmer temperatures promote disease spread and produce larger epidemics. In lakes, epidemics that start earlier and warmer in autumn grow much larger. In a mesocosm experiment, warmer temperatures produced larger epidemics. A mechanistic model parameterized with trait assays revealed that this pattern arose primarily from the temperature dependence of transmission rate (β), governed by the increasing foraging (and, hence, parasite exposure) rate of hosts (f). In the trait assays, parasite production seemed sufficiently responsive to shape epidemics as well; however, this trait proved too thermally insensitive in the mesocosm experiment and lake survey to matter much. Thus, in warmer environments, increased foraging of hosts raised transmission rate, yielding bigger epidemics through a potentially general, exposure-based mechanism for ectotherms. This mechanistic approach highlights how a trait-based framework will enhance predictive insight into responses of infectious disease to a warmer world.

Parasite transmission in a natural multihost-multiparasite community

Understanding the transmission and dynamics of infectious diseases in natural communities requires understanding the extent to which the ecology, evolution and epidemiology of those diseases are shaped by alternative hosts. We performed laboratory experiments to test how parasite spillover affected traits associated with transmission in two co-occurring parasites: the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa and the fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata Both parasites were capable of transmission from the reservoir host (Daphnia dentifera) to the spillover host (Ceriodaphnia dubia), but this occurred at a much higher rate for the fungus than the bacterium. We quantified transmission potential by combining information on parasite transmission and growth rate, and used this to compare parasite fitness in the two host species. For both parasites, transmission potential was lower in the spillover host. For the bacterium, virulence was higher in the spillover host. Transmission back to the original host was high for both parasites, with spillover influencing transmission rate of the fungus but not the bacterium. Thus, while inferior, the spillover host is not a dead-end for either parasite. Overall, our results demonstrate that the presence of multiple hosts in a community can have important consequences for disease transmission, and host and parasite fitness.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.