Phenological sensitivity to climate change is higher in resident than in migrant bird populations among European cavity breeders

A long-term study on the impact of climatic variables on two common nest-dwelling ectoparasites of the Eurasian blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus)

We explored the potential influence of temperature and precipitation on the abundance of two nest-dwelling ectoparasites (blowflies and mites) of Eurasian blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) during a period of 21 years and compared the results with those of a shorter period. The abundance of blowflies was negatively related to precipitation, which could prevent flies from locating their host, and laying date. In addition, blowflies were positively related to brood size (more food implies more parasites) and the interaction between precipitation and temperature. The highest abundances of blowfly pupae were attained in conditions of increasing precipitation and decreasing temperature, which should be more common at the beginning of the bird breeding season. Mites were significantly and positively related to laying date and the interaction between average precipitation and temperature but only for the larger dataset. Higher abundances of mites were related to intermediate values of temperature and precipitations, conditions that are found at the end of the breeding season. These results imply that optimal conditions for both parasites differ, with blowflies preferring earlier breeders and colder and more humid conditions than mites. Thus, the effects of the climatic conditions studied on parasite abundances are non-monotonic and can vary with years and parasite species. Finally, the fact that average temperature and precipitation decreases across the years of study is probably due to the advancement in Eurasian blue tit laying date because we calculated those variables for the period of birds' reproduction. This earlier nesting does not affect parasite abundance.

Among-species variation in six decades of changing migration timings explained through ecology, life-history and local migratory abundance

Species exploiting seasonal environments must alter timings of key life-history events in response to large-scale climatic changes in order to maintain trophic synchrony with required resources. Yet, substantial among-species variation in long-term phenological changes has been observed. Advancing from simply describing such variation towards predicting future phenological responses requires studies that rigorously quantify and explain variation in the direction and magnitude of changing timings across diverse species in relation to key ecological and life-history variables. Accordingly, we fitted multi-quantile regressions to 59 years of multi-species data on spring and autumn bird migration timings through northern Scotland. We demonstrate substantial variation in changes in timings among 72 species, and tested whether such variation can be explained by species ecology, life-history and changes in local abundance. Consistent with predictions, species that advanced their migration timing in one or both seasons had more seasonally restricted diet types, fewer suitable breeding habitat types, shorter generation lengths and capability to produce multiple offspring broods per year. In contrast, species with less seasonally restricted diet types and that produce single annual offspring broods, showed no change. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, long-distance and short-distance migrants advanced migration timings similarly. Changes in migration timing also varied with changes in local migratory abundance, such that species with increasing seasonal abundance apparently altered their migration timing, whilst species with decreasing abundance did not. Such patterns broadly concur with expectation given adaptive changes in migration timing. However, we demonstrate that similar patterns can be generated by numerical sampling given changing local abundances. Any apparent phenology-abundance relationships should, therefore, be carefully validated and interpreted. Overall, our results show that migrant bird species with differing ecologies and life-histories showed systematically differing phenological changes over six decades contextualised by large-scale environmental changes, potentially facilitating future predictions and altering temporal dynamics of seasonal species co-occurrences.

Responses in the breeding parameters of the collared flycatcher to the changing climate

Global climate change involves various aspects of climate, including precipitation changes and declining surface wind speeds, but studies investigating biological responses have often focused on the impacts of rising temperatures. Additionally, related long-term studies on bird reproduction tend to concentrate on breeding onset, even though other aspects of breeding could also be sensitive to the diverse weather aspects. This study aimed to explore how multiple aspects of breeding (breeding onset, hatching delay, breeding season length, clutch size, fledgling number) were associated with different weather components. We used an almost four-decade-long dataset to investigate the various aspects of breeding parameters of a collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population in the Carpathian Basin. Analyses revealed some considerable associations, for example, breeding seasons lengthened with the amount of daily precipitation, and clutch size increased with the number of cool days. Parallel and opposing changes in the correlated pairs of breeding and weather parameters were also observed. The phenological mismatch between prey availability and breeding time slightly increased, and fledgling number strongly decreased with increasing mistiming. Our results highlighted the intricate interplay between climate change and the reproductive patterns of migratory birds, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach. The results also underscored the potential threats posed by climate change to bird populations and the importance of adaptive responses to changing environmental conditions.

Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: a systematic map

BACKGROUND

Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America's ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America.

METHODS

We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature.

REVIEW FINDINGS

We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), elk (Cervus canadensis), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.

Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change

Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

Dry season temperature and rainy season precipitation significantly affect the spatio-temporal pattern of rubber plantation phenology in Yunnan province

The ongoing global warming trajectory poses extensive challenges to plant ecosystems, with rubber plantations particularly vulnerable due to their influence on not only the longevity of the growth cycle and rubber yield, but also the complex interplay of carbon, water, and energy exchanges between the forest canopy and atmosphere. However, the response mechanism of phenology in rubber plantations to climate change remains unclear. This study concentrates on sub-optimal environment rubber plantations in Yunnan province, Southwest China. Utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform, multi-source remote sensing images were synthesized at 8-day intervals with a spatial resolution of 30-meters. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series was reconstructed using the Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filter, coupled with the application of the seasonal amplitude method to extract three crucial phenological indicators, namely the start of the growing season (SOS), the end of the growing season (EOS), and the length of the growing season (LOS). Linear regression method, Pearson correlation coefficient, multiple stepwise regression analysis were used to extract of the phenology trend and find the relationship between SOS, EOS and climate factors. The findings demonstrated that 1) the phenology of rubber plantations has undergone dynamic changes over the past two decades. Specifically, the SOS advanced by 9.4 days per decade (R2 = 0.42, p< 0.01), whereas the EOS was delayed by 3.8 days per decade (R2 = 0.35, p< 0.01). Additionally, the LOS was extended by 13.2 days per decade (R2 = 0.55, p< 0.01); 2) rubber phenology demonstrated a notable sensitivity to temperature fluctuations during the dry season and precipitation patterns during the rainy season. The SOS advanced 2.0 days (r =-0.19, p< 0.01) and the EOS advanced 2.8 days (r =-0.35, p< 0.01) for every 1°C increase in the cool-dry season. Whereas a 100 mm increase in rainy season precipitation caused the SOS to be delayed by 2.0 days (r = 0.24, p< 0.01), a 100 mm increase in hot-dry season precipitation caused the EOS to be advanced by 7.0 days (r =-0.28, p< 0.01); 3) rubber phenology displayed a legacy effect of preseason climate variations. Changes in temperature during the fourth preseason month and precipitation during the fourth and eleventh preseason months are predominantly responsible for the variation in SOS. Meanwhile, temperature changes during the second, fourth, and ninth preseason months are primarily responsible for the variation in EOS. The study aims to enhance our understanding of how rubber plantations respond to climate change in sub-optimal environments and provide valuable insights for sustainable rubber production management in the face of changing environmental conditions.

Climate change does not equally affect temporal patterns of natural selection on reproductive timing across populations in two songbird species

Climate change has led to changes in the strength of directional selection on seasonal timing. Understanding the causes and consequences of these changes is crucial to predict the impact of climate change. But are observed patterns in one population generalizable to others, and can spatial variation in selection be explained by environmental variation among populations? We used long-term data (1955-2022) on blue and great tits co-occurring in four locations across the Netherlands to assess inter-population variation in temporal patterns of selection on laying date. To analyse selection, we combine reproduction and adult survival into a joined fitness measure. We found distinct spatial variation in temporal patterns of selection which overall acted towards earlier laying, and which was due to selection through reproduction rather than through survival. The underlying relationships between temperature, bird and caterpillar phenology were however the same across populations, and the spatial variation in selection patterns is thus caused by spatial variation in the temperatures and other habitat characteristics to which birds and caterpillars respond. This underlines that climate change is not necessarily equally affecting populations, but that we can understand this spatial variation, which enables us to predict climate change effects on selection for other populations.

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of selective interspecific information use

Recent work has shown that animals frequently use social information from individuals of their own species as well as from other species; however, the ecological and evolutionary consequences of this social information use remain poorly understood. Additionally, information users may be selective in their social information use, deciding from whom and how to use information, but this has been overlooked in an interspecific context. In particular, the intentional decision to reject a behaviour observed via social information has received less attention, although recent work has indicated its presence in various taxa. Based on existing literature, we explore in which circumstances selective interspecific information use may lead to different ecological and coevolutionary outcomes between two species, such as explaining observed co-occurrences of putative competitors. The initial ecological differences and the balance between the costs of competition and the benefits of social information use potentially determine whether selection may lead to trait divergence, convergence or coevolutionary arms race between two species. We propose that selective social information use, including adoption and rejection of behaviours, may have far-reaching fitness consequences, potentially leading to community-level eco-evolutionary outcomes. We argue that these consequences of selective interspecific information use may be much more widespread than has thus far been considered.

A predictive timeline of wildlife population collapse

Contemporary rates of biodiversity decline emphasize the need for reliable ecological forecasting, but current methods vary in their ability to predict the declines of real-world populations. Acknowledging that stressor effects start at the individual level, and that it is the sum of these individual-level effects that drives populations to collapse, shifts the focus of predictive ecology away from using predominantly abundance data. Doing so opens new opportunities to develop predictive frameworks that utilize increasingly available multi-dimensional data, which have previously been overlooked for ecological forecasting. Here, we propose that stressed populations will exhibit a predictable sequence of observable changes through time: changes in individuals' behaviour will occur as the first sign of increasing stress, followed by changes in fitness-related morphological traits, shifts in the dynamics (for example, birth rates) of populations and finally abundance declines. We discuss how monitoring the sequential appearance of these signals may allow us to discern whether a population is increasingly at risk of collapse, or is adapting in the face of environmental change, providing a conceptual framework to develop new forecasting methods that combine multi-dimensional (for example, behaviour, morphology, life history and abundance) data.

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Population differences in the length and early-life dynamics of telomeres among European pied flycatchers

Telomere length and shortening rate are increasingly being used as biomarkers for long-term costs in ecological and evolutionary studies because of their relationships with survival and fitness. Both early-life conditions and growth, and later-life stressors can create variation in telomere shortening rate. Studies on between-population telomere length and dynamics are scarce, despite the expectation that populations exposed to varying environmental constraints would present divergent telomere length patterns. The pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) is a passerine bird breeding across Eurasia (from Spain to western Siberia) and migrating through the Iberian Peninsula to spend the nonbreeding period in sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, different populations show marked differences in migration distance. We studied the large-scale variation of telomere length and early-life dynamics in the pied flycatcher by comparing six European populations across a north-south gradient (Finland, Estonia, England and Spain) predicting a negative effect of migration distance on adult telomere length, and of nestling growth on nestling telomere dynamics. There were clear population differences in telomere length, with English birds from midlatitudes having the longest telomeres. Telomere length did not thus show consistent latitudinal variation and was not linearly linked to differences in migration distance. Early-life telomere shortening rate tended to vary between populations. Fast growth was associated with shorter telomeres in the early life, but faster nestling growth affected telomeres more negatively in northern than southern populations. While the sources of between-population differences in telomere-related biology remain to be more intensively studied, our study illustrates the need to expand telomere studies at the between-population level.

Temporal Acoustic Patterns of the Oriental Turtle Dove in a Subtropical Forest in China

There is an abundance of bird species in subtropical areas, but studies on the vocal behavior of non-passerines in subtropical regions are limited. In this study, passive acoustic monitoring was used to investigate the temporal acoustic patterns of the vocal activities of the Oriental Turtle Dove (Streptopelia orientalis) in Yaoluoping National Nature Reserve (YNNR) in eastern China. The results show that the vocal production of the Oriental Turtle Dove exhibited a seasonal variation, peaking in the period April–August. Additionally, its diurnal vocal activity displayed a bimodal pattern in late spring and summer, with the first peak in the morning and a secondary peak at dusk. Among weather factors, temperature significantly affected the temporal sound pattern of the Oriental Turtle Dove, instead of humidity and precipitation. This study, which was focused on sound monitoring technology, provides knowledge for further research on bird behavior and ecology. In the future, long-term sound monitoring could be used for managing and conserving bird biodiversity.

Bird Communities in a Changing World: The Role of Interspecific Competition

Significant changes in the environment have the potential to affect bird species abundance and distribution, both directly, through a modification of the landscape, habitats, and climate, and indirectly, through a modification of biotic interactions such as competitive interactions. Predicting and mitigating the consequences of global change thus requires not only a sound understanding of the role played by biotic interactions in current ecosystems, but also the recognition and study of the complex and intricate effects that result from the perturbation of these ecosystems. In this review, we emphasize the role of interspecific competition in bird communities by focusing on three main predictions derived from theoretical and empirical considerations. We provide numerous examples of population decline and displacement that appeared to be, at least in part, driven by competition, and were amplified by environmental changes associated with human activities. Beyond a shift in relative species abundance, we show that interspecific competition may have a negative impact on species richness, ecosystem services, and endangered species. Despite these findings, we argue that, in general, the role played by interspecific competition in current communities remains poorly understood due to methodological issues and the complexity of natural communities. Predicting the consequences of global change in these communities is further complicated by uncertainty regarding future environmental conditions and the speed and efficacy of plastic and evolutionary responses to fast-changing environments. Possible directions of future research are highlighted.

Seasonal trends in adult apparent survival and reproductive trade-offs reveal potential constraints to earlier nesting in a migratory bird

Birds aim to optimize resources for feeding young and self-maintenance by timing reproduction to coincide with peak food availability. When reproduction is mistimed, birds could incur costs that affect their survival. We studied whether nesting phenology correlated with the apparent survival of American kestrels (Falco sparverius) from two distinct populations and examined trends in clutch-initiation dates. We estimated apparent survival using multi-state mark-recapture models with nesting timing, nesting success, sex, age, and weather covariates. Nesting timing predicted the apparent survival of successful adults; however, the effect differed between populations. Early nesting kestrels had higher apparent survival than later nesters in the western population, where kestrels have a relatively long nesting season. At the eastern site, where kestrels have a relatively short nesting season, the pattern was reversed-later nesters had higher apparent survival than earlier nesters. Nesting timing did not affect the apparent survival of adults with failed nests suggesting that the energetic cost of producing fledglings contributed to the timing effect. Finally, clutch-initiation dates advanced in the western population and remained static in the eastern population. Given that both populations have seasonal declines in productivity, population-specific survival patterns provide insight into seasonal trade-offs. Specifically, nesting timing effects on survival paralleled productivity declines in the western population and inverse patterns of survival and reproduction in the eastern population suggest a condition-dependent trade-off. Concomitant seasonal declines in reproduction and survival may facilitate population-level responses to earlier springs, whereas seasonal trade-offs may constrain phenology shifts and increase vulnerability to mismatch.

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species' range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

High Blood Parasite Infection Rate and Low Fitness Suggest That Forest Water Bodies Comprise Ecological Traps for Pied Flycatchers

Blood parasites are considered to have strong negative effects on host fitness. Negative fitness consequences may be associated with proximity to areas where blood parasite vectors reproduce. This study tested for relationships between haemosporidian infection prevalence, parasitemia, and fitness parameters of breeding Pied Flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) at different distances from forest water bodies. Prevalence and parasitemias (the intensity of infection) of haemosporidians and vector abundance generally decreased with increasing distance from forest lakes, streams, and bogs. Fledgling numbers were lower, and their condition was worse in the vicinity of water bodies, compared with those located one kilometer away from lakes and streams. At the beginning of the breeding season, adult body mass was not related to distance to the nearest water body, whereas at the end of the breeding season body mass was significantly lower closer to water bodies. Forest areas around water bodies may represent ecological traps for Pied Flycatchers. Installing nest boxes in the vicinity of forest water bodies creates unintended ecological traps that may have conservation implications.

Failure to advance migratory phenology in response to climate change may pose a significant threat to a declining Nearctic-Neotropical songbird

Populations of long-distance migrants that breed in seasonal habitats can be significantly impacted by climate change. We examined the migratory and breeding phenologies of the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), a declining long-distance Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that breeds in deciduous forests of Indiana. Our primary objectives were to determine temporal trends in cerulean warbler migratory timing, and to identify climate variables that explain variation in this species' migratory and breeding phenologies. We reviewed trends in cerulean warbler first arrival to Indiana from 1982 to 2019, and compared them to several explanatory climate variables: spring temperature, growing degree days (GDD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). We also compared the timing of cerulean warbler first lay dates from 2012 to 2019 with the aforementioned climate variables and annual spring precipitation. Cerulean warblers exhibited a minimal advance in first arrival timing (≤4 days in 38 years). Arrival timing was best predicted by GDD and a null model, but trends in GDD indicate that spring warming in Indiana has advanced by a greater margin, approximately 14 days. Climate variables did not predict first lay timing better than a null model. Springtime in Indiana is occurring earlier, but cerulean warblers are advancing their migratory timing to a much smaller degree. This failure to adapt may have a detrimental effect on warbler populations if it results in an asynchronization of important biological timings between them and their prey. Further studies of cerulean warbler breeding and prey phenologies are necessary to determine how climate change is impacting this species' reproductive success.

Mismatch-induced growth reductions in a clade of Arctic-breeding shorebirds are rarely mitigated by increasing temperatures

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

Extra-pair paternity explains cooperation in a bird species

In many monogamous species, a substantial proportion of offspring is sired by other males than the one providing care at the nest. Although females often solicit extra-pair mating, the benefits of extra-pair copulations to females are not fully understood. In this study on pied flycatchers, we tested whether extra-pair paternity in neighboring nests may have affected the likelihood that males helped defend extra-pair offspring against predators. We found that extra-pair sires were more often engaged and invested more heavily in cooperative predator defense than males without extra-pair offspring. For female flycatchers, extra-pair mating may thus be an adaptive strategy for enhancing offspring survival and breeding success.

In many social animals, females mate with multiple males, but the adaptive value of female extra-pair mating is not fully understood. Here, we tested whether male pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) engaging in extra-pair copulations with neighboring females were more likely to assist their neighbors in antipredator defense. We found that extra-pair sires joined predator-mobbing more often, approached predators more closely, and attacked predators more aggressively than males without extra-pair offspring in the neighboring nest. Extra-pair mating may incentivize males to assist in nest defense because of the benefits that this cooperative behavior has on their total offspring production. For females, this mating strategy may help recruit more males to join in antipredator defense, offering better protection and ultimately improving reproductive success. Our results suggest a simple mechanism by which extra-pair mating can improve reproductive success in breeding birds. In summary, males siring extra-pair offspring in neighboring nests assist neighbors in antipredator defense more often than males without extra-pair offspring.

An observational analysis of Canada Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) foraging and caching ecology in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA

Arctic and subarctic wildlife are among the most vulnerable species to climate change. Canada Jays (Perisoreus canadensis (Linnaeus, 1776)) are generalist residents of northern boreal forests and scatter-hoard food to insulate against food scarcity during winter. Unlike most scatter-hoarders, however, Canada Jays primarily cache perishable food, rendering their caches more susceptible to climate change induced degradation and loss. Here we use a mostly noninvasive approach to document Canada Jay foraging ecology among a population in interior Alaska, USA, including the types of food acquired, foraging and caching rates, and cache longevity and loss. We also tested for associations between foraging and caching rates with reproductive metrics to assess possible relationships among food and productivity. We found that Canada Jays have a varied diet that changed seasonally, and responded to a record-setting warm spring by directing foraging efforts away from cache recovery and towards the emergence of fresh food. We did not find evidence for relationships between foraging and caching rate with reproductive output, possibly owing to small sample sizes. We found that caches were recovered quickly (<4 weeks) and frequently lost to conspecific and heterospecific competitors. Our study suggests that Canada Jays may be better poised to respond to changes in cache integrity and food availability than has been previously recognized.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

From individual to population level: Temperature and snow cover modulate fledging success through breeding phenology in greylag geese (Anser anser)

Local weather conditions may be used as environmental cues by animals to optimize their breeding behaviour, and could be affected by climate change. We measured associations between climate, breeding phenology, and reproductive output in greylag geese (Anser anser) across 29 years (1990-2018). The birds are individually marked, which allows accurate long-term monitoring of life-history parameters for all pairs within the flock. We had three aims: (1) identify climate patterns at a local scale in Upper Austria, (2) measure the association between climate and greylag goose breeding phenology, and (3) measure the relationship between climate and both clutch size and fledging success. Ambient temperature increased 2 °C across the 29-years study period, and higher winter temperature was associated with earlier onset of egg-laying. Using the hatch-fledge ratio, average annual temperature was the strongest predictor for the proportion of fledged goslings per season. There is evidence for an optimum time window for egg-laying (the earliest and latest eggs laid had the lowest fledging success). These findings broaden our understanding of environmental effects and population-level shifts which could be associated with increased ambient temperature and can thus inform future research about the ecological consequences of climate changes and reproductive output in avian systems.

Ecological traps: evidence of a fitness cost in a cavity-nesting bird

Habitat quality has direct effects on the evolutionary fitness of breeding organisms, which is why it is believed that animals tend to have an evolved preference for the best possible habitats. However, some animals may mistakenly choose to reproduce in habitats that decrease their fitness, resulting in 'ecological traps'. In this study, we tested whether great tits (Parus major) attracted to areas affected by outbreaks of the great web-spinning sawfly (Acantholyda posticalis) had fitness detriments characteristic of ecological traps. Sawfly larvae consume pine needles, which decreases resource availability for birds co-habiting the forest. Using artificial nesting sites, we found that great tits inhabiting areas of sawfly outbreaks had similar clutch sizes as tits breeding in healthy forest patches; however, the fledgling number was significantly lower, and fledgling condition was worse in the damaged forests. While moth larvae are the most important food for bird nestlings, the forest patches damaged by sawflies had lower larval biomass. Although most ecological traps occur in environments altered by humans, this study shows that pest insects can lower habitat quality, forming ecological traps. Our results indicate that attracting cavity-nesting birds should be done with caution because it may negatively impact birds' nutritional status and reproductive fitness.

The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500-km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes

Global warming affects breeding phenology of birds differentially with latitude, but there is contrasting evidence about how the changing climate influences the breeding of migrating songbirds at their northern breeding range. We investigate the effect of climate warming on breeding time and breeding success of European pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Sweden during a period of 36 years using nest reports from bird ringing. To account for the latitudinal variation, we divided Sweden into three latitudinal bands (northern, intermediate, and southern). We applied a sliding window approach to find the most influential period and environment characteristics (temperature, vegetation greenness, and precipitation), using linear mixed models and model averaging. Our results show a long-term advancement of breeding time related to increasing spring temperature and vegetation greenness during a period before hatching. Northern breeders revealed a larger advancement over the years (8.3 days) compared with southern breeders (3.6 days). We observed a relatively stronger effect of temperature and greenness on breeding time in the north. Furthermore, northern birds showed an increase in breeding success over time, while birds breeding at southern and intermediate latitudes showed reduced breeding success in years with higher prehatching temperatures. Our findings with stronger environment effects on breeding time advancement in the north suggest that pied flycatchers are more responsive to weather cues at higher latitudes. Breeding time adjustment and, potentially, low competition help explain the higher long-term success observed in the north. Reduced breeding success at more southerly latitudes suggests an inability to match breeding time to very early and warm springs, a fate that with continued climate change could also be expected for pied flycatchers and other long-distance migrants at their very northern breeding range.

Epidemiology of human West Nile virus infections in the European Union and European Union enlargement countries, 2010 to 2018

Background

West Nile virus (WNV) circulates in an enzootic cycle involving mosquitoes and birds; humans are accidental hosts.

Aim

We analysed human WNV infections reported between 2010 and 2018 to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to better understand WNV epidemiology.

Methods

We describe probable and confirmed autochthonous human cases of WNV infection reported by European Union (EU) and EU enlargement countries. Cases with unknown clinical manifestation or with unknown place of infection at NUTS 3 or GAUL 1 level were excluded from analysis.

Results

From southern, eastern and western Europe, 3,849 WNV human infections and 379 deaths were reported. Most cases occurred between June and October. Two large outbreaks occurred, in 2010 (n = 391) and in 2018 (n = 1,993). The outbreak in 2018 was larger than in all previous years and the first cases were reported unusually early. The number of newly affected areas (n = 45) was higher in 2018 than in previous years suggesting wider spread of WNV.

Conclusion

Real-time surveillance of WNV infections is key to ensuring that clinicians and public health authorities receive early warning about the occurrence of cases and potential unusual seasonal patterns. Human cases may appear shortly after first detection of animal cases. Therefore, public health authorities should develop preparedness plans before the occurrence of human or animal WNV infections.

Dehydration risk is associated with reduced nest attendance and hatching success in a cooperatively breeding bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor

High air temperatures have measurable negative impacts on reproduction in wild animal populations, including during incubation in birds. Understanding the mechanisms driving these impacts requires comprehensive knowledge of animal physiology and behaviour under natural conditions. We used a novel combination of a non-invasive doubly labelled water (DLW) technique, nest temperature data and field-based behaviour observations to test effects of temperature, rainfall and group size on physiology and behaviour during incubation in southern pied babblers Turdoides bicolor, a cooperatively breeding passerine endemic to the arid savanna regions of southern Africa. The proportion of time that clutches were incubated declined as air temperatures increased, a behavioural pattern traditionally interpreted as a benefit of ambient incubation. However, we show that (i) clutches had a <50% chance of hatching when exposed to daily maximum air temperatures of >35.3°C; (ii) pied babbler groups incubated their nests almost constantly (99% of daylight hours) except on hot days; (iii) operative temperatures in unattended nests frequently exceeded 40.5°C, above which bird embryos are at risk of death; (iv) pied babblers incubating for long periods of time failed to maintain water balance on hot days; and (v) pied babblers from incubating groups lost mass on hot days. These results suggest that pied babblers might leave their nests during hot periods to lower the risk of dehydration associated with prolonged incubation at high operative temperatures. As mean air temperatures increase and extreme heat events become more frequent under climate change, birds will likely incur ever greater thermoregulatory costs of incubation, leading to compromised nest attendance and increased potential for eggs to overheat, with implications for nest success and, ultimately, population persistence.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

Over the past half century, populations of neotropical migratory birds in North America have plummeted while populations of resident species have largely remained stable. We show that resident and migratory birds in eastern North America have responded differently to climate change over this period, with the ranges of resident species expanding along their northern margin while the ranges of migratory species have contracted at their southern margin. These results suggest that the ability to colonize newly suitable areas may make resident species resilient to future climate change but that climate-induced range contractions may make neotropical migrants vulnerable to these changes.

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.

Associations of breeding-bird abundance with climate vary among species and trait-based groups in southern California

The responses of individuals and populations to climate change vary as functions of physiology, ecology, and plasticity. We investigated whether annual variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation was associated with relative abundances of breeding bird species at local and regional levels in southern California, USA, from 1968-2013. We tested our hypotheses that abundances were correlated positively with precipitation and negatively with temperature in this semiarid to arid region. We also examined whether responses to climate varied among groups of species with similar land-cover associations, nesting locations, and migratory patterns. We investigated relations between seasonal climate variables and the relative abundances of 41 species as estimated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Associations with climate variables varied among species. Results of models of species associated with arid scrublands or that nest on the ground strongly supported our hypotheses, whereas those of species associated with coniferous forests or that nest in cavities did not. Associations between climate variables and the abundances of other trait-based groups were diverse. Our results suggest that species in arid areas may be negatively affected by increased temperature and aridity, but species in nearby areas that are cooler and less arid may respond positively to those fluctuations in climate. Relations with climate variables can differ among similar species, and such knowledge may inform projections of future abundance trajectories and geographic ranges.

Phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change: the importance of cue variation

Phenotypic plasticity is a major mechanism of response to global change. However, current plastic responses will only remain adaptive under future conditions if informative environmental cues are still available. We briefly summarize current knowledge of the evolutionary origin and mechanistic underpinnings of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity, before highlighting the potentially complex effects of global change on cue availability and reliability. We then illustrate some of these aspects with a case study, comparing plasticity of blue tit breeding phenology in two contrasted habitats: evergreen and deciduous forests. Using long-term datasets, we investigate the climatic factors linked to the breeding phenology of the birds and their main food source. Blue tits occupying different habitats differ extensively in the cues affecting laying date plasticity, as well as in the reliability of these cues as predictors of the putative driver of selective pressure, the date of caterpillar peak. The temporal trend for earlier laying date, detected only in the evergreen populations, is explained by increased temperature during their cue windows. Our results highlight the importance of integrating ecological mechanisms shaping variation in plasticity if we are to understand how global change will affect plasticity and its consequences for population biology. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi-brooded songbird

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi-brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi-brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a "sliding window" approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species' phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals' breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi-brooded species may have been underestimated.

Recent phenological shifts of migratory birds at a Mediterranean spring stopover site: Species wintering in the Sahel advance passage more than tropical winterers

Spring migration phenology is shifting towards earlier dates as a response to climate change in many bird species. However, the patterns of change might not be the same for all species, populations, sex and age classes. In particular, patterns of change could differ between species with different ecology. We analyzed 18 years of standardized bird capture data at a spring stopover site on the island of Ponza, Italy, to determine species-specific rates of phenological change for 30 species following the crossing of the Mediterranean Sea. The advancement of spring passage was more pronounced in species wintering in Northern Africa (i.e. short-distance migrants) and in the Sahel zone. Only males from species wintering further South in the forests of central Africa advanced their passage, with no effect on the overall peak date of passage of the species. The migration window on Ponza broadened in many species, suggesting that early migrants within a species are advancing their migration more than late migrants. These data suggest that the cues available to the birds to adjust departure might be changing at different rates depending on wintering location and habitat, or that early migrants of different species might be responding differently to changing conditions along the route. However, more data on departure time from the wintering areas are required to understand the mechanisms underlying such phenological changes.

Evolutionary Response to Climate Change in Migratory Pied Flycatchers

Climate change is rapidly advancing spring phenology [1-3] but at different rates in different species [1, 4]. Whether these advances are solely driven by phenotypic plasticity [2, 5] or also involve evolution is hotly debated (e.g., [5-7]). In some species, including avian long-distance migrants, plastic responses to early springs may be constrained by inherited circannual timing programs [8, 9], making evolutionary adjustment the only viable mechanism for keeping pace with shifting phenology [5, 10]. This constraint may be contributing to population declines in migratory species [5, 10-12]. To test whether a migrant's timing program has evolved [10, 12], we replicated an experimental study of the annual cycle of long-distance migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) after 21 years of warming. Flycatchers are a model for studying constrained ecological responses to climate change [6, 10, 12, 13]. We show that the phase of the flycatcher circannual clock controlling spring moult, migration, and reproductive timing advanced by 9 days. A nearby wild population mirrored these changes, concurrently advancing egg-laying by 11 days. Furthermore, the time window during which wild flycatcher reproductive timing was most sensitive to ambient temperature advanced by 0.8 days year^-1. These results support a role of phenotypic evolution [14] in changing spring phenology [15, 16]. We suggest that the timing programs of long-distance migratory birds may have greater adaptive potential than previously thought, leaving some scope for evolutionary rescue in a changing climate.

Cue identification in phenology: A case study of the predictive performance of current statistical tools

Changes in the timing of life-history events (phenology) are a widespread consequence of climate change. Predicting population resilience requires knowledge of how phenology is likely to change over time, which can be gained by identifying the specific environmental cues that drive phenological events. Cue identification is often achieved with statistical testing of candidate cues. As the number of methods used to generate predictions increases, assessing the predictive accuracy of different approaches has become necessary. This study aims to (a) provide an empirical illustration of the predictive ability of five commonly applied statistical methods for cue identification (absolute and relative sliding time window analyses, penalized signal regression, climate sensitivity profiles and a growing degree-day model) and (b) discuss approaches for implementing cue identification methods in different systems. Using a dataset of mean clutch initiation timing in wild great tits (Parus major), we explored how the days of the year identified as most important, and the aggregate statistic identified as a cue, differed between statistical methods and with respect to the time span of data used. Each method's predictive capacity was tested using cross-validation and assessed for robustness to varying sample size. We show that the identified critical time window of cue sensitivity was consistent across four of the five methods. The accuracy and precision of predictions differed by method with penalized signal regression resulting in the most accurate and most precise predictions in our case. Accuracy was maximal for near-future predictions and showed a relationship with time. The difference between predictions and observations systematically shifted across the study from preceding observations to lagging. This temporal trend in prediction error suggests that the current statistical tools either fail to capture a key component of the cue-phenology relationship, or the relationship itself is changing through time in our system. These two influences need to be teased apart if we are to generate realistic predictions of phenological change. We recommend future phenological studies to challenge the idea of a static cue-phenology relationship and should cross-validate results across multiple time periods.

Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species

Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.