Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic

Reconciling scale using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework to improve management of woody encroachment in grasslands

Implementing strategies to navigate large-scale ecological transitions in grasslands is one of this century's greatest conservation challenges. In the US Great Plains, managing areas impacted by woody transitions have been reactive, short-lived, costly, and ineffective. Along with current technological innovation in rangeland monitoring, the promise of early warning science is to provide managers with sufficient time to be better prepared for novel signals of ecological change. Combining the science of early warning signals and frameworks such as the Resist - Accept - Direct (RAD) can provide land managers with guidelines to identify proactive strategies when facing ecological change. Using this approach, we found that opportunities to resist woody transitions decreased from 84 % to 60 % between 1990 and 2020 over the entire biome but remained highest in the northern and western Great Plains, which contributes to large scale conservation targets. These are key areas to prioritize resist opportunities. In contrast, 11 % of the biome exhibited early warning transition signals across all hierarchical scales by 2020, a fourfold increase since 1990. Lastly by 2020, 30 % of the biome exhibited early warning signals across multiple but not all scales. Here, efforts may be more effective when management is directed to conserve fragmented grassland legacies within a woody-dominated matrix and avoid large-scale monocultures of problematic encroaching woody species. Our multi-scale study indicates that 1) anchoring to the last remaining grassland core areas with no early warning of transitions and 2) strategically investing in these intact grasslands may provide the best results for grassland conservation.

A significant increase in forest regeneration failure following logging is driven by climatic and management factors

Regeneration following disturbance is a key natural process in forests worldwide and understanding the factors influencing it is critical to forest management. Here, using satellite data, historical logging data (1980-2019), and on-ground surveys, we quantified the spatial and temporal extent of regeneration failure following logging in the Eucalyptus forests of south-eastern Australia. We asked: What is the spatial extent and distribution of regeneration failure? Has the prevalence of regeneration failure changed over time? And, what climatic, topographic and other factors influence regeneration failure? We found that 19.2 % of areas logged between 1980 and 2019 in our study area (8030 ha of 41,819 ha cut) were characterized by regeneration failure. There was strong evidence of a significant increase in the extent of failed regeneration over the 40 years of our study, increasing from an average of <2 ha per cutblock in 1980 (∼7.5%) to an average of >9 ha per cutblock in 2019 (∼85%). The rate of change in regeneration failure also has increased. Regeneration failure was greatest on cutblocks with particular attributes including those: (1) with a high edge-area ratio (corresponding to long narrow logged areas), (2) on steep slopes, (3) at low elevation, and (4) dominated by Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forest compared to other species (e.g. Alpine Ash [Eucalyptus delegatensis]). Our results suggest that attempts to regenerate forest cover in some areas may become challenging after logging, including cutblocks on steep slopes that experience comparatively drier conditions.

Increasing severity of large-scale fires prolongs recovery time of forests globally since 2001

Ongoing and sharply increased global forest fires, especially extreme large-scale fires (LFs) with their greater destructiveness, have significantly altered forest structures and functions. However, long-term variations in the severity of LFs and corresponding effects on the natural post-LF recovery time of global forests remain unclear. Here, we rigorously identified 3,281 global large-scale (>10 km2) single-time fire events (LSFs) from 2001 to 2021, and used multiple indicators to understand the post-LSF recovery dynamics from different perspectives and comprehensively reveal major driving factors across regions and forests types based on multiple models. Compared with pre-2010, LSFs after 2010 caused greater forest damage, with the fire severity expanding further from low to high latitudes and from humid to arid regions, particularly affecting evergreen needleleaf forests. Fewer than one-third of the forests recovered successfully within 7 years, and most of these were tropical, moisture-rich broadleaf forests. The average time required for three indicators to recover to pre-fire conditions increased by 7.5% (vegetation density), 11.1% (canopy structure) and 27.3% (gross primary productivity). Moreover, the positive sensitivity of recovery time to increased fire severity was significantly intensified. Notably, more forests experienced recovery stagnation with increased severity, especially in boreal forests, further extending recovery time. The negative impact of the severity of LSFs on forest recovery was much stronger than that of post-LSF climate conditions. Soil moisture after LSFs was identified as the primary facilitating factor. Temperature generally had a positive role before 2010, but a strong negative influence on post-LSF forest recovery after 2010. These findings provide a useful reference for better understanding global forest recovery mechanisms, estimating forest carbon sinks and implementing post-LSF management accordingly.

Large-scale and long-term wildlife research and monitoring using camera traps: a continental synthesis

Camera traps are widely used in wildlife research and monitoring, so it is imperative to understand their strengths, limitations, and potential for increasing impact. We investigated a decade of use of wildlife cameras (2012-2022) with a case study on Australian terrestrial vertebrates using a multifaceted approach. We (i) synthesised information from a literature review; (ii) conducted an online questionnaire of 132 professionals; (iii) hosted an in-person workshop of 28 leading experts representing academia, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and government; and (iv) mapped camera trap usage based on all sources. We predicted that the last decade would have shown: (i) exponentially increasing sampling effort, a continuation of camera usage trends up to 2012; (ii) analytics to have shifted from naive presence/absence and capture rates towards hierarchical modelling that accounts for imperfect detection, thereby improving the quality of outputs and inferences on occupancy, abundance, and density; and (iii) broader research scales in terms of multi-species, multi-site and multi-year studies. However, the results showed that the sampling effort has reached a plateau, with publication rates increasing only modestly. Users reported reaching a saturation point in terms of images that could be processed by humans and time for complex analyses and academic writing. There were strong taxonomic and geographic biases towards medium-large mammals (>500 g) in forests along Australia's southeastern coastlines, reflecting proximity to major cities. Regarding analytical choices, bias-prone indices still accounted for ~50% of outputs and this was consistent across user groups. Multi-species, multi-site and multiple-year studies were rare, largely driven by hesitancy around collaboration and data sharing. There is no widely used repository for wildlife camera images and the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) is the dominant repository for sharing tabular occurrence records. However, the ALA is presence-only and thus is unsuitable for creating detection histories with absences, inhibiting hierarchical modelling. Workshop discussions identified a pressing need for collaboration to enhance the efficiency, quality and scale of research and management outcomes, leading to the proposal of a Wildlife Observatory of Australia (WildObs). To encourage data standards and sharing, WildObs should (i) promote a metadata collection app; (ii) create a tagged image repository to facilitate artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) computer vision research in this space; (iii) address the image identification bottleneck via the use of AI/ML-powered image-processing platforms; (iv) create data commons for detection histories that are suitable for hierarchical modelling; and (v) provide capacity building and tools for hierarchical modelling. Our review highlights that while Australia's investments in monitoring biodiversity with cameras position it to be a global leader in this context, realising that potential requires a paradigm shift towards best practices for collecting, curating, sharing and analysing 'Big Data'. Our findings and framework have broad applicability outside Australia to enhance camera usage to meet conservation and management objectives ranging from local to global scales. This review articulates a country/continental observatory approach that is also suitable for international collaborative wildlife research networks.

Evaluating models of expert judgment to inform assessment of ecosystem viability and collapse

Expert judgment underpins assessment of threatened ecosystems. However, experts are often narrowly defined, and variability in their judgments may be substantial. Models built from structured elicitation with large diverse expert panels can contribute to more consistent and transparent decision-making. We conducted a structured elicitation under a broad definition of expertise to examine variation in judgments of ecosystem viability and collapse in a critically endangered ecosystem. We explored whether variation in judgments among 83 experts was related to affiliation and management expertise and assessed performance of an average model based on common ecosystem indicators. There were systematic differences among individuals, much of which were not explained by affiliation or expertise. However, of the individuals affiliated with government, those in conservation and environmental departments were more likely to determine a patch was viable than those in agriculture and rural land management. Classification errors from an average model, in which all individuals were weighted equally, were highest among government agriculture experts (27%) and lowest among government conservation experts (12%). Differences were mostly cases in which the average model predicted a patch was viable but the individual thought it was not. These differences arose primarily for areas that were grazed or cleared of mature trees. These areas are often the target of restoration, but they are also valuable for agriculture. These results highlight the potential for conflicting advice and disagreement about policies and actions for conserving and restoring threatened ecosystems. Although adoption of an average model can improve consistency of ecosystem assessment, it can fail to capture and convey diverse opinions held by experts. Structured elicitation and models of ecosystem viability play an important role in providing data-driven evidence of where differences arise among experts to support engagement and discussion among stakeholders and decision makers and to improve the management of threatened ecosystems.

The cost of recovering Australia's threatened species

Accounting for the cost of repairing the degradation of Earth's biosphere is critical to guide conservation and sustainable development decisions. Yet the costs of repairing nature through the recovery of a continental suite of threatened species across their range have never been calculated. We estimated the cost of in situ recovery of nationally listed terrestrial and freshwater threatened species (n = 1,657) across the megadiverse continent of Australia by combining the spatially explicit costs of all strategies required to address species-specific threats. Individual species recovery required up to 12 strategies (mean 2.3), predominantly habitat retention and restoration, and the management of fire and invasive species. The estimated costs of maximizing threatened species recovery across Australia varied from AU$0-$12,626 per ha, depending on the species, threats and context of each location. The total cost of implementing all strategies to recover threatened species in their in situ habitat across Australia summed to an estimated AU$583 billion per year, with management of invasive weeds making up 81% of the total cost. This figure, at 25% of Australia's GDP, does not represent a realistic biodiversity conservation budget, but needs to be accounted for when weighing up decisions that lead to further costly degradation of Australia's natural heritage.

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) Indicate Mammalian Abundance Across Broad Spatial Scales

Ongoing ecosystem change and biodiversity decline across the Afrotropics call for tools to monitor the state of biodiversity or ecosystem elements across extensive spatial and temporal scales. We assessed relationships in the co-occurrence patterns between great apes and other medium to large-bodied mammals to evaluate whether ape abundance serves as a proxy for mammal diversity across broad spatial scales. We used camera trap footage recorded at 22 research sites, each known to harbor a population of chimpanzees, and some additionally a population of gorillas, across 12 sub-Saharan African countries. From ~350,000 1-min camera trap videos recorded between 2010 and 2016, we estimated mammalian community metrics, including species richness, Shannon diversity, and mean animal mass. We then fitted Bayesian Regression Models to assess potential relationships between ape detection rates (as proxy for ape abundance) and these metrics. We included site-level protection status, human footprint, and precipitation variance as control variables. We found that relationships between detection rates of great apes and other mammal species, as well as animal mass were largely positive. In contrast, relationships between ape detection rate and mammal species richness were less clear and differed according to site protection and human impact context. We found no clear association between ape detection rate and mammal diversity. Our findings suggest that chimpanzees hold potential as indicators of specific elements of mammalian communities, especially population-level and composition-related characteristics. Declines in chimpanzee populations may indicate associated declines of sympatric medium to large-bodied mammal species and highlight the need for improved conservation interventions.Changes in chimpanzee abundance likely precede extirpation of sympatric mammals.

Quorum sensing regulates virulence factors in the coral pathogen Vibrio coralliilyticus

The bacterial pathogen Vibrio coralliilyticus causes disease in coral species worldwide. The mechanisms of V. coralliilyticus coral colonization, coral microbiome interactions, and virulence factor production are understudied. In other model Vibrio species, virulence factors like biofilm formation, toxin secretion, and protease production are controlled through a density-dependent communication system called quorum sensing (QS). Comparative genomics indicated that V. coralliilyticus genomes share high sequence identity for most of the QS signaling and regulatory components identified in other Vibrio species. Here, we identify an active QS signaling pathway in two V. coralliilyticus strains with distinct infection etiologies: type strain BAA-450 and coral isolate OCN008. In V. coralliilyticus, the inter-species AI-2 autoinducer signaling pathway in both strains controls expression of the master QS transcription factor and LuxR/HapR homolog VcpR to regulate >300 genes, including protease production, biofilm formation, and two conserved type VI secretion systems (T6SSs). Activation of T6SS1 by QS results in the secretion of effectors and enables interbacterial competition and killing of prey bacteria. We conclude that the QS system in V. coralliilyticus is functional and controls the expression of genes involved in relevant bacterial behaviors typically associated with host infection.IMPORTANCEVibrio coralliilyticus infects many marine organisms, including multiple species of corals, and is a primary causative agent of tissue loss diseases and bacterial-induced bleaching. Here, we investigated a common cell-cell communication mechanism called quorum sensing, which is known to be intimately connected to virulence in other Vibrio species. Our genetic and chemical studies of V. coralliilyticus quorum sensing uncovered an active pathway that directly regulates the following key virulence factors: proteases, biofilms, and secretion systems. These findings connect bacterial signaling in communities to the infection of corals, which may lead to novel treatments and earlier diagnoses of coral diseases in reefs.

No More Extinctions: Recovering Australia's Biodiversity

Most conservation programs and laws aim to prevent extinction. However, there is a gulf between such aspirations and the current reality of escalating biodiversity loss. This review focuses on efforts to prevent extinctions in Australia, but much of this consideration is likely to apply globally. As context, we consider the reasons for trying to prevent extinction, review Australia's extinction record, and note that there are likely to be many more extinctions than formally recognized. We describe recent cases where conservation actions have prevented extinction. We note that extinction is a pathway rather than solely an endpoint, and many decisions made or not made on that pathway can determine the fate of species. We conclude that all looming extinctions can and should be prevented. This will require transformational change in legislation, increased resourcing, more consideration of poorly known species, and increased societal recognition of the need to be responsible for the care of country.

Fine-scale landscape heterogeneity drives microbial community structure at Robinson Ridge, East Antarctica

Life at Robinson Ridge, located in the Windmill Islands region of East Antarctica, is susceptible to a changing climate. At this site, responses of the vegetation communities and moss-beds have been well researched, but corresponding information for microbial counterparts is still lacking. To bridge this knowledge gap, we established baseline data for monitoring the environmental drivers shaping the soil microbial community on the local 'hillslope' scale. Using triplicate 300-m long transects encompassing a hillslope with wind-exposed arid soils near the top, and snowmelt-sustained-moss beds at the bottom, we assessed the fine-scale heterogeneity of the soil environmental and microbial properties. Moist, low-lying, and vegetated soils exhibited higher soil fertility and unique biodiversity, with taxa adapted to thrive in moist conditions (i.e., Tardigrada, Phragmoplastophyta, Chloroflexi) and those that have previously demonstrated strong specificity for moss species (i.e., Fibrobacterota, Mucoromycota and Cyanobacteria) dominating. In contrast, elevated soils with limited moisture and nutrients were dominated by metabolically diverse phyla like Actinobacteriota and Ascomycota. Significant differences in microbial communities were observed at both hillslope (50-300 m) and fine spatial scales, as small as 0.1 m. Vertical heterogeneity was observed with higher abundances of Cyanobacteria and micro-algae in surfaces compared to subsoil, potentially indicating early biocrust formation. Stochastic and deterministic processes governing phylogenetic assembly were linked to soil positional groups and microbial domains rather than soil depth. Gradient Forest modeling identified critical environmental thresholds, such as ammonia, manganese, and sulphur, responsible for drastic community changes following level alterations. This reinforces the existence of strong niche preferences and distinct distribution patterns within the local microbial communities. This study highlights the need for finer-scale investigations considering site topography to better understand the relationship between environmental drivers and local microbiota. Ultimately, these insights enable us to understand environmental drivers and predict Antarctic ecosystem responses, helping safeguard this fragile environment.

The concepts of irreversibility and reversibility in research on anthropogenic environmental changes

The concept of "irreversibility" and its counterpart "reversibility" have become prominent in environmental and ecological research on human-induced changes, thresholds, climate tipping points, ecosystem degradation, and losses in the cryosphere and biosphere. Through a systematic literature review, we show that in these research fields, these notions are not only descriptive terms, but can have different semantic functions and normative aspects. The results suggest that, in the context of environmental and ecological research the concepts of irreversibility and reversibility have taken on additional usages in comparison to their contexts in theoretical thermodynamics and mechanics. Irreversible as a classification of anthropogenic environmental change can be used categorically, in the sense of a finite end, or relatively, i.e. on time or spatial scales of interest. Surprisingly, most of the analyzed scientific articles that use the terminology of (ir)reversibility substantively do not provide an explicit conceptualization or definition (74.7%). The research on potential (ir)reversibility of environmental change may affect the social and political willingness to bear the costs of interventions to mitigate or prevent undesirable environmental change. In particular, classifying a change as reversible or irreversible and determining the timescale(s) and spatial scale(s) involved has implications for policy and ecosystem management decisions, as suggested by its use in several high-level scientific and policy reports on ecosystem and climate change. Therefore, it is important to explicitly present a clear definition of irreversibility or reversibility for the readers from other fields, even if it could be the case that within a specific community an implicit definition was considered to be sufficient. We propose further recommendations for inter- and transdisciplinary reflection and conceptual use in the context of environmental, ecological, and sustainability research.

Improving multiple stressor-response models through the inclusion of nonlinearity and interactions among stressor gradients

Stressor-response models are used to detect and predict changes within ecosystems in response to anthropogenic and naturally occurring stressors. While nonlinear stressor-response relationships and interactions between stressors are common in nature, predictive models often do not account for them due to perceived difficulties in the interpretation of results. We used Irish river monitoring data from 177 river sites to investigate if multiple stressor-response models can be improved by accounting for nonlinearity, interactions in stressor-response relationships and environmental context dependencies. Out of the six models of distinct biological responses, five models benefited from the inclusion of nonlinearity while all six benefited from the inclusion of interactions. The addition of nonlinearity means that we can better see the exponential increase in Trophic Diatom Index (TDI3) as phosphorus increases, inferring ecological conditions deteriorating at a faster rate with increasing phosphorus. Furthermore, our results show that the relationship between stressor and response has the potential to be dependent on other variables, as seen in the interaction of elevation with both siltation and nutrients in relation to Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) richness. Both relationships weakened at higher elevations, perhaps demonstrating that there is a decreased capacity for resilience to stressors at lower elevations due to greater cumulative effects. Understanding interactions such as this is vital to managing ecosystems. Our findings provide empirical support for the need to further develop and employ more complex modelling techniques in environmental assessment and management.

Re-thinking human interactions with the oceans

Earth's marine ecosystems are changing rapidly, in large part owing to the damaging effects of human activities. Unless humans find better ways of interacting with the seas and oceans, the marine resources upon which we rely will diminish as more ecosystems collapse. The consequences for human health and wellbeing will be severe. The meta-discipline of Oceans and Human Health has catalogued how the oceans and their constituents benefit human lives. Examples include access to seafood, pharmaceuticals and physical and mental health benefits. This interdisciplinary research effort has also revealed how the integrated impact of anthropogenic activities has disrupted ocean processes resulting in extensive losses of marine biodiversity, increasing chemical and microbial pollution, proliferation of harmful algal blooms and increased coastal inundation, all of which threaten human populations. In response, non-governmental organizations and national governments have established various agreements and treaties to prevent further damage, restore what has been lost and grasp new economic opportunities. Nevertheless, ocean-related risks continue to escalate rapidly in the absence of political commitment. New thinking regarding the interconnectedness of all human/ocean interactions is required to remove the barriers and impediments that hamper tackling the wicked problem of fostering health and wellbeing while achieving ocean sustainability.

Effects of increasing soil moisture on Antarctic desert microbial ecosystems

Overgeneralization and a lack of baseline data for microorganisms in high-latitude environments have restricted the understanding of the microbial response to climate change, which is needed to establish Antarctic conservation frameworks. To bridge this gap, we examined over 17,000 sequence variants of bacteria and microeukarya across the hyperarid Vestfold Hills and Windmill Islands regions of eastern Antarctica. Using an extended gradient forest model, we quantified multispecies response to variations along 79 edaphic gradients to explore the effects of change and wind-driven dispersal on community dynamics under projected warming trends. We also analyzed a second set of soil community data from the Windmill Islands to test our predictions of major environmental tipping points. Soil moisture was the most robust predictor for shaping the regional soil microbiome; the highest rates of compositional turnover occurred at 10-12% soil moisture threshold for photoautotrophs, such as Cyanobacteria, Chlorophyta, and Ochrophyta. Dust profiles revealed a high dispersal propensity for Chlamydomonas, a microalga, and higher biomass was detected at trafficked research stations. This could signal the potential for algal blooms and increased nonendemic species dispersal as human activities increase in the region. Predicted increases in moisture availability on the Windmill Islands were accompanied by high photoautotroph abundances. Abundances of rare oligotrophic taxa, such as Eremiobacterota and Candidatus Dormibacterota, which play a crucial role in atmospheric chemosynthesis, declined over time. That photosynthetic taxa increased as soil moisture increased under a warming scenario suggests the potential for competition between primary production strategies and thus a more biotically driven ecosystem should the climate become milder. Better understanding of environmental triggers will aid conservation efforts, and it is crucial that long-term monitoring of our study sites be established for the protection of Antarctic desert ecosystems. Furthermore, the successful implementation of an improved gradient forest model presents an exciting opportunity to broaden its use on microbial systems globally.

Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.

Extended ozone depletion and reduced snow and ice cover-Consequences for Antarctic biota

Stratospheric ozone, which has been depleted in recent decades by the release of anthropogenic gases, is critical for shielding the biosphere against ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation. Although the ozone layer is expected to recover before the end of the 21st century, a hole over Antarctica continues to appear each year. Ozone depletion usually peaks between September and October, when fortunately, most Antarctic terrestrial vegetation and soil biota is frozen, dormant and protected under snow cover. Similarly, much marine life is protected by sea ice cover. The ozone hole used to close before the onset of Antarctic summer, meaning that most biota were not exposed to severe springtime UV-B fluxes. However, in recent years, ozone depletion has persisted into December, which marks the beginning of austral summer. Early summertime ozone depletion is concerning: high incident UV-B radiation coincident with snowmelt and emergence of vegetation will mean biota is more exposed. The start of summer is also peak breeding season for many animals, thus extreme UV-B exposure (UV index up to 14) may come at a vulnerable time in their life cycle. Climate change, including changing wind patterns and strength, and particularly declining sea ice, are likely to compound UV-B exposure of Antarctic organisms, through earlier ice and snowmelt, heatwaves and droughts. Antarctic field research conducted decades ago tended to study UV impacts in isolation and more research that considers multiple climate impacts, and the true magnitude and timing of current UV increases is needed.

Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.

Carbonservation with Demonstrated Biodiversity and Carbon Gains: Carbon Can Pay But Biodiversity Must Lead

Land use has a critical role to play in both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and increasingly there have been calls to integrate policies for concurrently meeting Paris Agreement commitments and the UN decade on ecosystem restoration 2021-2030. Currently however, investment activities have been dominated by climate change mitigation activities, including through the development of carbon markets (both voluntary and compliance markets). Whilst climate change mitigation is to be welcomed, the prioritization of carbon in avoided deforestation and reforestation can lead to suboptimal or negative outcomes for biodiversity. Restoration of degraded native vegetation may provide an opportunity for concurrent production of both carbon and biodiversity benefits, by harnessing existing carbon markets without the need to trade-off biodiversity outcomes. Here we demonstrate that carbon sequestered by restoring degraded temperate woodland can pay the price of the restored biodiversity. This is shown using conservative carbon prices in an established market (during both a voluntary and compliance market phase), and the restoration price revealed by a 10-year conservation incentive payment scheme. When recovery rates are high, market prices for carbon could pay the full price of restoration, with additional independent investment needed in cases where recovery trajectories are slower. Using carbon markets to fund restoration of degraded native vegetation thereby provides a solution for constrained resources and problematic trade-offs between carbon and biodiversity outcomes. Multi-attribute markets offer the potential to greatly increase the extent of restoration for biodiversity conservation, while providing an affordable source of carbon sequestration and enhancing economic benefits to landowners.

Habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under CMIP6 climate scenarios

BACKGROUND

Spatial information about the location and suitability of areas for native plant and animal species under different climate futures is an important input to land use and conservation planning and management. Australia, renowned for its abundant species diversity and endemism, often relies on modeled data to assess species distributions due to the country's vast size and the challenges associated with conducting on-ground surveys on such a large scale. The objective of this article is to develop habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under different climate futures.

RESULTS

Using MaxEnt, we produced Australia-wide habitat suitability maps under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP7.0-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5 climate futures for 1,382 terrestrial vertebrates and 9,251 vascular plants vascular plants at 5 km2 for open access. This represents 60% of all Australian mammal species, 77% of amphibian species, 50% of reptile species, 71% of bird species, and 44% of vascular plant species. We also include tabular data, which include summaries of total quality-weighted habitat area of species under different climate scenarios and time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial data supplied can help identify important and sensitive locations for species under various climate futures. Additionally, the supplied tabular data can provide insights into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Australia. These habitat suitability maps can be used as input data for landscape and conservation planning or species management, particularly under different climate change scenarios in Australia.

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world

Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire are having profound implications for ecosystems and society globally, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which fire regimes will reorganize in a warming world. While predicting regime shifts remains challenging because of complex climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks, understanding the climate niches of fire regimes provides a simple way to identify locations most at risk of regime change. Using globally available satellite datasets, we constructed 14 metrics describing the spatiotemporal dimensions of fire and then delineated Australia's pyroregions-the geographic area encapsulating a broad fire regime. Cluster analysis revealed 18 pyroregions, notably including the (1) high-intensity, infrequent fires of the temperate forests, (2) high-frequency, smaller fires of the tropical savanna, and (3) low-intensity, diurnal, human-engineered fires of the agricultural zones. To inform the risk of regime shifts, we identified locations where the climate under three CMIP6 scenarios is projected to shift (i) beyond each pyroregion's historical climate niche, and (ii) into climate space that is novel to the Australian continent. Under middle-of-the-road climate projections (SSP2-4.5), an average of 65% of the extent of the pyroregions occurred beyond their historical climate niches by 2081-2100. Further, 52% of pyroregion extents, on average, were projected to occur in climate space without present-day analogues on the Australian continent, implying high risk of shifting to states that also lack present-day counterparts. Pyroregions in tropical and hot-arid climates were most at risk of shifting into both locally and continentally novel climate space because (i) their niches are narrower than southern temperate pyroregions, and (ii) their already-hot climates lead to earlier departure from present-day climate space. Such a shift implies widespread risk of regime shifts and the emergence of no-analogue fire regimes. Our approach can be applied to other regions to assess vulnerability to rapid fire regime change.

Landscape quantifies the intermediate state and transition dynamics in ecological networks

Understanding the ecological mechanisms associated with the collapse and restoration is especially critical in promoting harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. So far, it remains challenging to elucidate the mechanisms of stochastic dynamical transitions for ecological systems. Using an example of plant-pollinator network, we quantified the energy landscape of ecological system. The landscape displays multiple attractors characterizing the high, low and intermediate abundance stable states. Interestingly, we detected the intermediate states under pollinator decline, and demonstrated the indispensable role of the intermediate state in state transitions. From the landscape, we define the barrier height (BH) as a global quantity to evaluate the transition feasibility. We propose that the BH can serve as a new early-warning signal (EWS) for upcoming catastrophic breakdown, which provides an earlier and more accurate warning signal than traditional metrics based on time series. Our results promote developing better management strategies to achieve environmental sustainability.

Reconfiguration of Amazon's connectivity in the climate system

With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature increase required for such a catastrophic event are still uncertain. However, our analysis presented here shows that signatures of changing Amazon are already apparent in historical climate data sets. Here, we extend the methods of climate network analysis and apply them to study the temporal evolution of the connectivity between the Amazon rainforest and the global climate system. We observe that the Amazon rainforest is losing short-range connectivity and gaining more long-range connections, indicating shifts in regional-scale processes. Using embeddings inspired by manifold learning, we show that the Amazon connectivity patterns have undergone a fundamental shift in the 21st century. By investigating edge-based network metrics on similar regions to the Amazon, we see the changing properties of the Amazon are noticeable in comparison. Furthermore, we simulate diffusion and random walks on these networks and observe a faster spread of perturbations from the Amazon in recent decades. Our methodology innovations can act as a template for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of regional climate change and its impact on global climate using the toolbox of climate network analysis.

Theory and classification of mass extinction causation

Theory regarding the causation of mass extinctions is in need of systematization, which is the focus of this contribution. Every mass extinction has both an ultimate cause, i.e. the trigger that leads to various climato-environmental changes, and one or more proximate cause(s), i.e. the specific climato-environmental changes that result in elevated biotic mortality. With regard to ultimate causes, strong cases can be made that bolide (i.e. meteor) impacts, large igneous province (LIP) eruptions and bioevolutionary events have each triggered one or more of the Phanerozoic Big Five mass extinctions, and that tectono-oceanic changes have triggered some second-order extinction events. Apart from bolide impacts, other astronomical triggers (e.g. solar flares, gamma bursts and supernova explosions) remain entirely in the realm of speculation. With regard to proximate mechanisms, most extinctions are related to either carbon-release or carbon-burial processes, the former being associated with climatic warming, ocean acidification, reduced marine productivity and lower carbonate δ13C values, and the latter with climatic cooling, increased marine productivity and higher carbonate δ13C values. Environmental parameters such as marine redox conditions and terrestrial weathering intensity do not show consistent relationships with carbon-cycle changes. In this context, mass extinction causation can be usefully classified using a matrix of ultimate and proximate factors. Among the Big Five mass extinctions, the end-Cretaceous biocrisis is an example of a bolide-triggered carbon-release event, the end-Permian and end-Triassic biocrises are examples of LIP-triggered carbon-release events, and the Late Ordovician and Late Devonian biocrises are examples of bioevolution-triggered carbon-burial events. Whereas the bolide-impact and LIP-eruption mechanisms appear to invariably cause carbon release, bioevolutionary triggers can result in variable carbon-cycle changes, e.g. carbon burial during the Late Ordovician and Late Devonian events, carbon release associated with modern anthropogenic climate warming, and little to no carbon-cycle impact due to certain types of ecosystem change (e.g. the advent of the first predators around the end-Ediacaran; the appearance of Paleolithic human hunters in Australasia and the Americas). Broadly speaking, studies of mass extinction causation have suffered from insufficiently critical thinking-an impartial survey of the extant evidence shows that (i) hypotheses of a common ultimate cause (e.g. bolide impacts or LIP eruptions) for all Big Five mass extinctions are suspect given manifest differences in patterns of environmental and biotic change among them; (ii) the Late Ordovician and Late Devonian events were associated with carbon burial and long-term climatic cooling, i.e. changes that are inconsistent with a bolide-impact or LIP-eruption mechanism; and (iii) claims of periodicity in Phanerozoic mass extinctions depended critically on the now-disproven idea that they shared a common extrinsic trigger (i.e. bolide impacts).

Long-term livestock exclusion increases plant richness and reproductive capacity in arid woodlands

Herbivore exclusion is implemented globally to recover ecosystems from grazing by introduced and native herbivores, but evidence for large-scale biodiversity benefits is inconsistent in arid ecosystems. We examined the effects of livestock exclusion on dryland plant richness and reproductive capacity. We collected data on plant species richness and seeding (reproductive capacity), rainfall, vegetation productivity and cover, soil strength and herbivore grazing intensity from 68 sites across 6500 km2 of arid Georgina gidgee (Acacia georginae) woodlands in central Australia between 2018 and 2020. Sites were on an actively grazed cattle station and two destocked conservation reserves. We used structural equation modeling to examine indirect (via soil or vegetation modification) versus direct (herbivory) effects of grazing intensity by two introduced herbivores (cattle, camels) and a native herbivore (red kangaroo), on seasonal plant species richness and seeding of all plants, and the richness and seeding of four plant groups (native grasses, forbs, annual chenopod shrubs, and palatable perennial shrubs). Non-native herbivores had a strong indirect effect on plant richness and seeding by reducing vegetative ground cover, resulting in decreased richness and seeding of native grasses and forbs. Herbivores also had small but negative direct impacts on plant richness and seeding. This direct effect was explained by reductions in annual chenopod and palatable perennial shrub richness under grazing activity. Responses to grazing were herbivore-dependent; introduced herbivore grazing reduced native plant richness and seeding, while native herbivore grazing had no significant effect on richness or seeding of different plant functional groups. Soil strength decreased under grazing by cattle but not camels or kangaroos. Cattle had direct effects on palatable perennial shrub richness and seeding, whereas camels had indirect effects, reducing richness and seeding by reducing the abundance of shrubs. We show that considering indirect pathways improves evaluations of the effects of disturbances on biodiversity, as focusing only on direct effects can mask critical mechanisms of change. Our results indicate substantial biodiversity benefits from excluding livestock and controlling camels in drylands. Reducing introduced herbivore impacts will improve soil and vegetation condition, ensure reproduction and seasonal persistence of species, and protect native plant diversity.

Facing the flames: insect responses to megafires and changing fire regimes

The rise of megafires and extreme fire behaviors poses a significant threat to insect populations, affecting their survival and postfire recolonization. Megafires threaten the entire insect communities by changing fire regimes and habitats. These fires are now burning non-fire-prone ecosystems, endangering non-fire-adapted insects and habitats. While implementing prescribed burn programs can reduce the chances of megafires from developing, some megafires will be unpreventable. Land managers can mitigate the fire impacts by creating refugia and promoting heterogeneity in burn severity through fire control measures. Last, these post-megafire landscapes can provide an opportunity to restore historical fire regimes through subsequent prescribed burn management. This will revitalize ecosystems, benefit insects, and reduce the likelihood of future megafires and subsequent insect loss.

Basking in the sun: how mosses photosynthesise and survive in Antarctica

The Antarctic environment is extremely cold, windy and dry. Ozone depletion has resulted in increasing ultraviolet-B radiation, and increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone have altered Antarctica's climate. How do mosses thrive photosynthetically in this harsh environment? Antarctic mosses take advantage of microclimates where the combination of protection from wind, sufficient melt water, nutrients from seabirds and optimal sunlight provides both photosynthetic energy and sufficient warmth for efficient metabolism. The amount of sunlight presents a challenge: more light creates warmer canopies which are optimal for photosynthetic enzymes but can contain excess light energy that could damage the photochemical apparatus. Antarctic mosses thus exhibit strong photoprotective potential in the form of xanthophyll cycle pigments. Conversion to zeaxanthin is high when conditions are most extreme, especially when water content is low. Antarctic mosses also produce UV screening compounds which are maintained in cell walls in some species and appear to protect from DNA damage under elevated UV-B radiation. These plants thus survive in one of the harshest places on Earth by taking advantage of the best real estate to optimise their metabolism. But survival is precarious and it remains to be seen if these strategies will still work as the Antarctic climate changes.

Widespread synchronous decline of Mediterranean-type forest driven by accelerated aridity

Large-scale, abrupt ecosystem change in direct response to climate extremes is a critical but poorly documented phenomenon1. Yet, recent increases in climate-induced tree mortality raise concern that some forest ecosystems are on the brink of collapse across wide environmental gradients2,3. Here we assessed climatic and productivity trends across the world's five Mediterranean forest ecosystems from 2000 to 2021 and detected a large-scale, abrupt forest browning and productivity decline in Chile (>90% of the forest in <100 days), responding to a sustained, acute drought. The extreme dry and warm conditions in Chile, unprecedented in the recent history of all Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are akin to those projected to arise in the second half of the century4. Long-term recovery of this forest is uncertain given an ongoing decline in regional water balance. This dramatic plummet of forest productivity may be a spyglass to the future for other Mediterranean ecosystems.

Reservoir-derived subsidies provide a potential management opportunity for novel river ecosystems

Aquatic ecosystems world-wide are being irreversibly altered, suggesting that new and innovative management strategies are necessary to improve ecosystem function and sustainability. In river ecosystems degraded by dams environmental flows and selective withdrawal (SWD) infrastructure have been used to improve habitat for native species. Yet, few studies have quantified nutrient and food web export subsidies from upstream reservoirs, despite their potential to subsidize downstream riverine food webs. We sampled nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton concentrations in outflows from the Shasta-Keswick reservoir complex in Northern California over a 12-month period to understand how SWD operation and internal reservoir conditions interact to influence subsidies to the Sacramento River. We found that nutrients, phytoplankton, and zooplankton were continuously exported from Shasta Reservoir to the Sacramento River and that gate operations at Shasta Dam were important in controlling exports. Further, our results indicate that gate operations and water-export depth strongly correlated with zooplankton community exports, whereas internal reservoir conditions (mixing and residence time) controlled concentrations of exported zooplankton biomass and chlorophyll a. These results demonstrate that reservoirs can be an important source of nutrient and food web subsidies and that selective withdrawal infrastructure may provide a valuable management tool to control ecosystem-level productivity downstream of dams.

Early-melting snowpatch plant communities are transitioning into novel states

Snowpatch plant community distribution and composition are strongly tied to the duration of long-lasting snow cover in alpine areas; they are vulnerable to global climatic changes that result in warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. We used a revisitation study to quantify early-melting snowpatch floristic and functional diversity change in southern Australia, and document shrub size-class distributions over time to detect evidence for their encroachment into snowpatches, a key prediction with climatic change. Early-melting snowpatch vegetation has declined in areal extent, changed in species composition, and shrub and tussock grass cover has increased, but changes in functional trait diversity were less clear. Species gains, particularly by non-clonal species, accounted for most of the floristic change observed. Shrub recruitment was ongoing by most shrub species. Biotic differentiation is occurring; many early-melting snowpatches are transitioning to a novel state with changed composition and taller vegetation structure, but there is little evidence for species loss having occurred. Given enough time, however, the long-term loss of species is likely (i.e. biotic homogenisation) if taller shrubs outcompete short-statured snowpatch species. Our results provide evidence that this alpine ecosystem is forming a novel community with an uncertain future.

Loss of terrestrial biodiversity in Australia: Magnitude, causation, and response

Australia's biota is species rich, with high rates of endemism. This natural legacy has rapidly diminished since European colonization. The impacts of invasive species, habitat loss, altered fire regimes, and changed water flows are now compounded by climate change, particularly through extreme drought, heat, wildfire, and flooding. Extinction rates, already far exceeding the global average for mammals, are predicted to escalate across all taxa, and ecosystems are collapsing. These losses are symptomatic of shortcomings in resourcing, law, policy, and management. Informed by examples of advances in conservation practice from invasive species control, Indigenous land management, and citizen science, we describe interventions needed to enhance future resilience. Many characteristics of Australian biodiversity loss are globally relevant, with recovery requiring society to reframe its relationship with the environment.

Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk

Ecosystem management in the face of global change requires understanding how co-occurring threats affect species and communities. Such an understanding allows for effective management strategies to be identified and implemented. An important component of this is differentiating between factors that are within (e.g. invasive predators) or outside (e.g. drought, large wildfires) of a local manager's control. In the global biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia, small- and medium-sized mammal species are severely affected by anthropogenic threats and environmental disturbances, including invasive predators, fire, and declining rainfall. However, the relative importance of different drivers has not been quantified. We used data from a long-term monitoring program to fit Bayesian state-space models that estimated spatial and temporal changes in the relative abundance of four threatened mammal species: the woylie (Bettongia penicillata), chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii), koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula) and quenda (Isoodon fusciventor). We then use Bayesian structural equation modelling to identify the direct and indirect drivers of population changes, and scenario analysis to forecast population responses to future environmental change. We found that habitat loss or conversion and reduced primary productivity (caused by rainfall declines) had greater effects on species' spatial and temporal population change than the range of fire and invasive predator (the red fox Vulpes vulpes) management actions observed in the study area. Scenario analysis revealed that a greater extent of severe fire and further rainfall declines predicted under climate change, operating in concert are likely to further reduce the abundance of these species, but may be mitigated partially by invasive predator control. Considering both historical and future drivers of population change is necessary to identify the factors that risk species recovery. Given that both anthropogenic pressures and environmental disturbances can undermine conservation efforts, managers must consider how the relative benefit of conservation actions will be shaped by ongoing global change.

The cost of not acting: Delaying invasive grass management increases costs and threatens assets in a national park, northern Australia

Globally, invasive grasses are a major threat to protected areas (PAs) due to their ability to alter community structure and function, reduce biodiversity, and alter fire regimes. However, there is often a mismatch between the threat posed by invasive grasses and the management response. We document a case study of the spread and management of the ecosystem-transforming invasive grass, Andropogon gayanus Kunth. (gamba grass), in Litchfield National Park; an iconic PA in northern Australia that contains significant natural, cultural and social values. We undertook helicopter-based surveys of A. gayanus across 143,931 ha of Litchfield National Park in 2014 and 2021-2022. We used these data to parametrise a spatially-explicit spread model, interfaced with a management simulation model to predict 10-year patterns of spread, and associated management costs, under three scenarios. Our survey showed that between 2014 and 2021-22 A. gayanus spread by 9463 ha, and 47%. The gross A. gayanus infestation covered 29,713 ha of the total survey area, making it the largest national park infestation in Australia. A. gayanus had not been locally eradicated within the Park's small existing 'gamba grass eradication zone', and instead increased by 206 ha over the 7-year timeframe. Our modelled scenarios predict that without active management A. gayanus will continue spreading, covering 42,388 ha of Litchfield within a decade. Alternative scenarios predict that: (i) eradicating A. gayanus in the small existing eradication zone would likely protect 18% of visitor sites, and cost ∼AU$825,000 over 5 years - more than double the original predicted cost in 2014; or (ii) eradicating A. gayanus in a much larger eradication zone would likely protect 86% of visitor sites and several species of conservation significance, and cost ∼AU$6.6 million over 5 years. Totally eradicating A. gayanus from the Park is no longer viable due to substantial spread since 2014. Our study demonstrates the value of systematic landscape-scale surveys and costed management scenarios to enable assessment and prioritisation of weed management. It also demonstrates the increased environmental and financial costs of delaying invasive grass management, and the serious threat A. gayanus poses to PAs across northern Australia.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean "scapes." We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature's contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.

Continent-wide declines in shallow reef life over a decade of ocean warming

Human society is dependent on nature^1,2, but whether our ecological foundations are at risk remains unknown in the absence of systematic monitoring of species' populations³. Knowledge of species fluctuations is particularly inadequate in the marine realm⁴. Here we assess the population trends of 1,057 common shallow reef species from multiple phyla at 1,636 sites around Australia over the past decade. Most populations decreased over this period, including many tropical fishes, temperate invertebrates (particularly echinoderms) and southwestern Australian macroalgae, whereas coral populations remained relatively stable. Population declines typically followed heatwave years, when local water temperatures were more than 0.5 °C above temperatures in 2008. Following heatwaves^5,6, species abundances generally tended to decline near warm range edges, and increase near cool range edges. More than 30% of shallow invertebrate species in cool latitudes exhibited high extinction risk, with rapidly declining populations trapped by deep ocean barriers, preventing poleward retreat as temperatures rise. Greater conservation effort is needed to safeguard temperate marine ecosystems, which are disproportionately threatened and include species with deep evolutionary roots. Fundamental among such efforts, and broader societal needs to efficiently adapt to interacting anthropogenic and natural pressures, is greatly expanded monitoring of species' population trends^7,8.

Soft robotics towards sustainable development goals and climate actions

Soft robotics technology can aid in achieving United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement through development of autonomous, environmentally responsible machines powered by renewable energy. By utilizing soft robotics, we can mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change on human society and the natural world through fostering adaptation, restoration, and remediation. Moreover, the implementation of soft robotics can lead to groundbreaking discoveries in material science, biology, control systems, energy efficiency, and sustainable manufacturing processes. However, to achieve these goals, we need further improvements in understanding biological principles at the basis of embodied and physical intelligence, environment-friendly materials, and energy-saving strategies to design and manufacture self-piloting and field-ready soft robots. This paper provides insights on how soft robotics can address the pressing issue of environmental sustainability. Sustainable manufacturing of soft robots at a large scale, exploring the potential of biodegradable and bioinspired materials, and integrating onboard renewable energy sources to promote autonomy and intelligence are some of the urgent challenges of this field that we discuss in this paper. Specifically, we will present field-ready soft robots that address targeted productive applications in urban farming, healthcare, land and ocean preservation, disaster remediation, and clean and affordable energy, thus supporting some of the SDGs. By embracing soft robotics as a solution, we can concretely support economic growth and sustainable industry, drive solutions for environment protection and clean energy, and improve overall health and well-being.

Effects of interactions between anthropogenic stressors and recurring perturbations on ecosystem resilience and collapse

Insights into declines in ecosystem resilience and their causes and effects can inform preemptive action to avoid ecosystem collapse and loss of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. Empirical studies of ecosystem collapse are rare and hampered by ecosystem complexity, nonlinear and lagged responses, and interactions across scales. We investigated how an anthropogenic stressor could diminish ecosystem resilience to a recurring perturbation by altering a critical ecosystem driver. We studied groundwater-dependent, peat-accumulating, fire-prone wetlands known as upland swamps in southeastern Australia. We hypothesized that underground mining (stressor) reduces resilience of these wetlands to landscape fires (perturbation) by diminishing groundwater, a key ecosystem driver. We monitored soil moisture as an indicator of ecosystem resilience during and after underground mining. After landscape fire, we compared responses of multiple state variables representing ecosystem structure, composition, and function in swamps within the mining footprint with unmined reference swamps. Soil moisture declined without recovery in swamps with mine subsidence (i.e., undermined), but was maintained in reference swamps over 8 years (effect size 1.8). Relative to burned reference swamps, burned undermined swamps showed greater loss of peat via substrate combustion; reduced cover, height, and biomass of regenerating vegetation; reduced postfire plant species richness and abundance; altered plant species composition; increased mortality rates of woody plants; reduced postfire seedling recruitment; and extirpation of a hydrophilic animal. Undermined swamps therefore showed strong symptoms of postfire ecosystem collapse, whereas reference swamps regenerated vigorously. We found that an anthropogenic stressor diminished the resilience of an ecosystem to recurring perturbations, predisposing it to collapse. Avoidance of ecosystem collapse hinges on early diagnosis of mechanisms and preventative risk reduction. It may be possible to delay or ameliorate symptoms of collapse or to restore resilience, but the latter appears unlikely in our study system due to fundamental alteration of a critical ecosystem driver. Efectos de las interacciones entre los estresantes antropogénicos y las perturbaciones recurrentes sobre la resiliencia y el colapso de los ecosistemas.

Forest restoration in a time of fire: perspectives from tall, wet eucalypt forests subject to stand-replacing wildfires

Wildfires have the potential to add considerably to the already significant challenge of achieving effective forest restoration in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. While fire can sometimes promote forest restoration (e.g. by creating otherwise rare, early successional habitats), it can thwart it in others (e.g. by depleting key patch types and stand structures). Here we outline key considerations in facilitating restoration of some tall wet temperate forest ecosystems and some boreal forest ecosystems where the typical fire regime is rare high-severity stand-replacing fire. Some of these ecosystems are experiencing altered fire regimes such as increased fire extent, severity and/or frequency. Achieving good restoration outcomes in such ecosystems demands understanding fire regimes and their impacts on vegetation and other elements of biodiversity and then selecting ecosystem-appropriate management interventions. Potential actions range from doing nothing (as the ecosystem already maintains full post-fire regenerative capacity) to interventions prior to a conflagration like prescribed burning to limit the risks of high-severity fire, excluding activities that impair post-fire recovery (e.g. post-fire logging), and artificial seeding where natural regeneration fails. The most ecologically effective actions will be ecosystem-specific and context-specific and informed by knowledge of the ecosystem in question (such as plant life-history attributes) and inter-relationships with attributes like vegetation condition at the time it is burnt (e.g. young versus old forest). This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Temporal dynamics in alpine snowpatch plants along a snowmelt gradient explained by functional traits and strategies

Alpine snowpatches are characterised by persistent snow cover, short growing seasons and periglacial processes, which has resulted in highly specialised plant communities. Hence, these snowpatch communities are among the most threatened from climate change. However, temporal dynamics in snowpatch microclimate and plant composition are rarely explored, especially in the marginal alpine environments of Australia. Seven snowpatches were categorised into early, mid and late snowmelt zones based on growing season length, with soil temperatures recorded from 2003 to 2020 and plant composition surveyed in 84 1 m² quadrats in 2007, 2013 and 2020. Microclimate, species diversity, plant cover and composition, along with community-weighted trait means and plant strategies were assessed to understand snowpatch dynamics in response to climate change. We found that growing season length and temperatures have increased in late melt zones, while changes were less consistent in early and mid melt zones. There were few changes in species diversity, but increases in graminoids and declines in snowpatch specialists in mid and late melt zones. Community-weighted plant height, leaf area and leaf weight also increased, particularly in mid and late melt zones, while plant strategies shifted from compositions of ruderal-tolerant to stress-tolerant. Here, we show that snowpatch communities are rapidly changing in response to longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures, with the greatest changes occurring where snow persists the longest. The results highlight the climate-induced loss of defining biotic and abiotic characteristics of snowpatches, as temporal convergence of compositions along snowmelt gradients threatens the distinctiveness of snowpatch plant communities.

Islands in the ice: Potential impacts of habitat transformation on Antarctic biodiversity

Antarctic biodiversity faces an unknown future with a changing climate. Most terrestrial biota is restricted to limited patches of ice-free land in a sea of ice, where they are adapted to the continent's extreme cold and wind and exploit microhabitats of suitable conditions. As temperatures rise, ice-free areas are predicted to expand, more rapidly in some areas than others. There is high uncertainty as to how species' distributions, physiology, abundance, and survivorship will be affected as their habitats transform. Here we use current knowledge to propose hypotheses that ice-free area expansion (i) will increase habitat availability, though the quality of habitat will vary; (ii) will increase structural connectivity, although not necessarily increase opportunities for species establishment; (iii) combined with milder climates will increase likelihood of non-native species establishment, but may also lengthen activity windows for all species; and (iv) will benefit some species and not others, possibly resulting in increased homogeneity of biodiversity. We anticipate considerable spatial, temporal, and taxonomic variation in species responses, and a heightened need for interdisciplinary research to understand the factors associated with ecosystem resilience under future scenarios. Such research will help identify at-risk species or vulnerable localities and is crucial for informing environmental management and policymaking into the future.

Climate change and extreme events are changing the biology of Polar Regions

Polar landscapes and their unique biodiversity are threatened by climate change. Wild reindeer are cultural and ecological keystone species, traversing across the northern Eurasian Arctic throughout the year (Wild reindeer in the sub-Arctic in Kuhmo, Finland. Photo: Antti Leinonen, Snowchange Cooperative. Used with permission). In contrast, Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity is found on islands in the ice (or ocean) which support unique assemblages of plants and animals (King George Island, South Shetlands; photo Andrew Netherwood. Used with permission). This VSI examines how the changing climate threatens these diverse marine and terrestrial habitats and the biodiversity that they support.

Eight things you should never do in a monitoring program: an Australian perspective

Monitoring is critical to gauge the effect of environmental management interventions as well as to measure the effects of human disturbances such as climate change. Recognition of the critical need for monitoring means that, at irregular intervals, recommendations are made for new government-instigated programs or to revamp existing ones. Using insights from past well-intentioned (but sadly also often failed) attempts to establish and maintain government-instigated monitoring programs in Australia, we outline eight things that should never be done in environmental monitoring programs (if they aim to be useful). These are the following: (1) Never commence a new environmental management initiative without also committing to a monitoring program. (2) Never start a monitoring program without clear questions. (3) Never implement a monitoring program without first doing a proper experimental design. (4) Never ignore the importance of matching the purpose and objectives of a monitoring program to the design of that program. (5) Never change the way you monitor something without ensuring new methods can be calibrated with the old ones. (6) Never try to monitor everything. (7) Never collect data without planning to curate and report on it. (8) If possible, avoid starting a monitoring program without the necessary resources secured. To balance our "nevers", we provide a checklist of actions that will increase the chances a monitoring program will actually measure the effectiveness of environmental management. Scientists and resource management practitioners need to be part of a stronger narrative for, and key participants in, well-designed, implemented, and maintained government-led monitoring programs. We argue that monitoring programs should be mandated in threatened species conservation programs and all new environmental management initiatives.

Wilderness forms and their implications for global environmental policy and conservation

With the intention of securing industry-free land and seascapes, protecting wilderness entered international policy as a formal target for the first time in the zero draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Given this increased prominence in international policy, it is timely to consider the extent to which the construct of wilderness supports global conservation objectives. We evaluated the construct by overlaying recently updated cumulative human pressure maps that offer a global-scale delineation of industry-free land as wilderness with maps of carbon stock, species richness, and ground travel time from urban centers. Wilderness areas took variable forms in relation to carbon stock, species richness, and proximity to urban centers, where 10% of wilderness areas represented high carbon and species richness, 20% low carbon and species richness, and 3% high levels of remoteness (>48 h), carbon, and species richness. Approximately 35% of all remaining wilderness in 2013 was accessible in <24 h of travel time from urban centers. Although the construct of wilderness can be used to secure benefits in specific contexts, its application in conservation must account for contextual and social implications. The diverse characterization of wilderness under a global environmental conservation lens shows that a nuanced framing and application of the construct is needed to improve understanding, communication, and retention of its variable forms as industry-free places.

Bridge to the future: Important lessons from 20 years of ecosystem observations made by the OzFlux network

In 2020, the Australian and New Zealand flux research and monitoring network, OzFlux, celebrated its 20th anniversary by reflecting on the lessons learned through two decades of ecosystem studies on global change biology. OzFlux is a network not only for ecosystem researchers, but also for those 'next users' of the knowledge, information and data that such networks provide. Here, we focus on eight lessons across topics of climate change and variability, disturbance and resilience, drought and heat stress and synergies with remote sensing and modelling. In distilling the key lessons learned, we also identify where further research is needed to fill knowledge gaps and improve the utility and relevance of the outputs from OzFlux. Extreme climate variability across Australia and New Zealand (droughts and flooding rains) provides a natural laboratory for a global understanding of ecosystems in this time of accelerating climate change. As evidence of worsening global fire risk emerges, the natural ability of these ecosystems to recover from disturbances, such as fire and cyclones, provides lessons on adaptation and resilience to disturbance. Drought and heatwaves are common occurrences across large parts of the region and can tip an ecosystem's carbon budget from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source. Despite such responses to stress, ecosystems at OzFlux sites show their resilience to climate variability by rapidly pivoting back to a strong carbon sink upon the return of favourable conditions. Located in under-represented areas, OzFlux data have the potential for reducing uncertainties in global remote sensing products, and these data provide several opportunities to develop new theories and improve our ecosystem models. The accumulated impacts of these lessons over the last 20 years highlights the value of long-term flux observations for natural and managed systems. A future vision for OzFlux includes ongoing and newly developed synergies with ecophysiologists, ecologists, geologists, remote sensors and modellers.

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Forest 404: Using a BBC drama series to explore the impact of nature's changing soundscapes on human wellbeing and behavior

Extensive ecosystem degradation and increasing urbanization are altering human relationships with nature. To explore these trends, we created a transdisciplinary, narrative-led podcast series produced by the BBC, called Forest 404. The series explored the implications of a world without nature. An online experimental component mobilized audience participation (n = 7,596) to assess responses to natural soundscapes with and without abiotic, biotic, and poetic elements across five biomes. Conditions featuring the sounds of wildlife, such as bird song, were perceived to be more psychologically restorative than those without. Participants' personal lived experiences were strongly related to these outcomes; those who had memories triggered by the sounds were more likely to find them psychologically restorative and exhibited a greater motivation to preserve them. Moreover, the effects of both soundscape composition and memories on preservation behavior were partially mediated by restorative potential; respondents were more likely to want to protect the sounds they heard if they thought they might offer therapeutic outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of art-science collaborations and demonstrate how maintaining contact with the natural world can promote wellbeing and foster behaviors that protect planetary health.