Epidemiology, disease burden and outcomes of cirrhosis in a large secondary care hospital in South Auckland, New Zealand

Meta-Analysis: Global Prevalence and Mortality of Cirrhosis in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is responsible for a significant global health burden. Despite this burden, the prevalence and mortality of MASLD-related cirrhosis remain inadequately defined, hindering effective public health strategies. This study aimed to estimate the global prevalence and mortality associated with MASLD-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and SCOPUS was conducted using keywords related to MASLD and cirrhosis from inception of each database used through June 2024. COVIDENCE was used for abstract and manuscript review. MASLD populations were categorised into 'general practice setting' and 'high risk setting', which indicated studies from inpatient setting or those referred for liver biopsy for an indication (elevated liver enzymes). Our data extraction and quality assessment followed PRISMA guidelines. A random-effects model was utilised for meta-analysis.

RESULTS

From 7924 identified articles, 35 studies comprising 513,742 patients with MASLD met the inclusion criteria. The pooled global prevalence of cirrhosis among MASLD patients was 3.26% (95% CI: 2.47%-4.31%) in general practice settings (4 studies) and 14.51% (95% CI: 11.22%-18.57%) among those in inpatient settings or referred for liver biopsy (31 studies). Regionally, higher prevalence rates in high-risk settings were observed in North America and Australia (18.38%; 95% CI: 9.06%-33.75%), followed by Europe (10.16%; 95% CI: 5.71%-17.44%) and Asia (9.12%; 95% CI: 6.11%-13.40%) (p = 0.007). Notably, ICD-based diagnoses indicated a significantly higher prevalence of cirrhosis (27.43%) compared to those diagnosed by liver biopsy (13.24%; p < 0.001). The pooled all-cause mortality rate for MASLD-cirrhosis patients was estimated at 7.91 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.44-13.71) (9 studies).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis underscores the substantial prevalence of cirrhosis among MASLD patients and highlights significant geographic and demographic variability, calling for improved screening and management strategies.

Extra-hepatic morbidity and mortality in alcohol-related liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use increases the risk of many conditions in addition to liver disease; patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are therefore at risk from both extra-hepatic and hepatic disease.

AIMS

This review synthesises information about non-liver-related mortality in persons with ALD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed to identify studies describing non-liver outcomes in ALD. Information about overall non-liver mortality was extracted from included studies and sub-categorised into major causes: cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-liver cancer and infection. Single-proportion meta-analysis was done to calculate incidence rates (events/1000 patient-years) and relative risks (RR) compared with control populations.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven studies describing 50 302 individuals with 155 820 patient-years of follow-up were included. Diabetes, CVD and obesity were highly prevalent amongst included patients (5.4%, 10.4% and 20.8% respectively). Outcomes varied across the spectrum of ALD: in alcohol-related fatty liver the rate of non-liver mortality was 43.4/1000 patient-years, whereas in alcoholic hepatitis the rate of non-liver mortality was 22.5/1000 patient-years. The risk of all studied outcomes was higher in ALD compared with control populations: The RR of death from CVD was 2.4 (1.6-3.8), from non-hepatic cancer 2.2 (1.6-2.9) and from infection 8.2 (4.7-14.3).

CONCLUSION

Persons with ALD are at high risk of death from non-liver causes such as cardiovascular disease and non-hepatic cancer.

NAFLD-related hepatocellular carcinoma: The growing challenge

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common cause of cancer-related mortality and morbidity worldwide. With the obesity pandemic, NAFLD-related HCC is contributing to the burden of disease exponentially. Genetic predisposition and clinical risk factors for NAFLD-related HCC have been identified. Cirrhosis is a well-known and major risk factor for NAFLD-related HCC. However, the occurrence of NAFLD-related HCC in patients without cirrhosis is increasingly recognized and poses a significant challenge regarding cancer surveillance. It is of paramount importance to develop optimal risk stratification scores and models to identify subsets of the population at high risk so they can be enrolled in surveillance programs. In this review, we will discuss the risks and prediction models for NAFLD-related HCC.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Meta-regression

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may be a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the extent of this association still needs to be addressed. Pooled incidence rates of HCC across the disease spectrum of NAFLD have never been estimated by meta-analysis.

METHODS

In this systematic review, we searched Web of Science, Embase, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library from January 1, 1950 through July 30, 2020. We included studies reporting on HCC incidence in patients with NAFLD. The main outcomes were pooled HCC incidences in patients with NAFLD at distinct severity stages. Summary estimates were calculated with random-effects models. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression analyses were carried out to address heterogeneity.

RESULTS

We included 18 studies involving 470,404 patients. In patients with NAFLD at a stage earlier than cirrhosis, the incidence rate of HCC was 0.03 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01-0.07; I² = 98%). In patients with cirrhosis, the incidence rate was 3.78 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.47-5.78; I² = 93%). Patients with cirrhosis undergoing regular screening for HCC had an incidence rate of 4.62 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.77-7.72; I² = 77%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NAFLD-related cirrhosis have a risk of developing HCC similar to that reported for patients with cirrhosis from other etiologies. Evidence documenting the risk in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis or simple steatosis is limited, but the incidence of HCC in these populations may lie below thresholds used to recommend a screening. Well-designed prospective studies in these subpopulations are needed. The protocol for this systematic review is registered in the Prospero database (registration number CRD42018092861).

The Change in Metabolic Syndrome Status and the Risk of Nonviral Liver Cirrhosis

Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is considered to be the hepatic component of metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, the association between changes in MetS status and the risk of liver cirrhosis (LC) has not been investigated to date. This study assessed the association between changes in MetS and subsequent nonviral LC development. Methods: Data were obtained from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Individuals who participated in health screenings from both 2009 to 2010 and 2011 to 2012 were included. The primary outcome was LC development according to the static and dynamic MetS status. Subjects were stratified into four groups according to the change in MetS status observed from the two-year interval screening (2009–2011). Cox regression analysis was used to examine the hazard ratios of LC. Results: During a median of 7.3 years of follow-up, 24,923 incident LC cases developed among 5,975,308 individuals. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, regular exercise, and body mass index, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for LC development were 1.39 (1.33–1.44) for the MetS-Developed group, 1.32 (1.26–1.37) for the MetS-Recovered group, and 1.51 (1.45–1.56) for the MetS-Sustained group, relative to the MetS-Free group. Stratified analyses according to age, sex, smoking, alcohol intake, exercise, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and chronic kidney disease showed similar results. Conclusions: Both static and dynamic MetS status are independent risk factors for LC development. The risk of LC was the highest in people with sustained MetS and was lower in the MetS-Recovered group than in the MetS-Sustained group. These results suggest that improving a person’s MetS status may be helpful in preventing LC.

IL-6 and IL-10 gene polymorphisms and cirrhosis of liver risk from a comprehensive analysis

BACKGROUND

Different inflammatory and immune cytokines play a key role in the development of cirrhosis of liver (CL). To investigate the association between interleukin-6,10 (IL-6,10) genes polymorphisms and CL risk through comparison of the allele and genotype distribution frequencies by meta-analysis.

METHODS

A literature search covered with the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Google Scholar, SinoMed (CNKI and Wanfang) through 20th April, 2021. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to assess the strength of associations.

RESULTS

After a comprehensive search, three common polymorphisms (rs1800872, rs1800871, rs1800896) in IL-10 gene were selected, and three common polymorphisms (rs1800795, rs1800796, rs1800797) in IL-6 gene were also identified. The important finding was that IL-10 rs1800872 was a risk factor for CL development. For example, there has a significantly increased relationship between rs1800872 polymorphism and CL both in the whole group (OR: 1.30, 95%CI: 1.01-1.67 in heterozygote model), Asian population (OR: 1.40, 95%CI: 1.03-1.88 in heterozygote model) and hospital-based source of control (OR: 1.40, 95%CI: 1.01-1.96 in dominant model). In addition, significant association was found between rs1800896 and primary biliary cirrhosis subtype disease (OR: 1.30, 95%CI: 1.01-1.68 in allelic contrast model). No association was observed in all three polymorphisms in IL-6 gene.

CONCLUSION

Our present study suggests that the IL-10 rs1800872 and rs1800896 polymorphisms is potentially associated with the risk of CL susceptibility.

Liver Stiffness-Based Risk Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. We established and validated a liver stiffness (LS)-based risk prediction model for HCC development in patients with NAFLD. A total of 2666 and 467 patients with NAFLD were recruited in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. NAFLD was defined as controlled attenuated parameter ≥238 dB/m by transient elastography. Over a median of 64.6 months, HCC developed in 22 (0.8%) subjects in the training cohort. Subjects who developed HCC were older and had higher prevalence of diabetes and cirrhosis, lower platelet count, and higher AST levels compared to those who did not develop HCC (all p < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, age ≥60 years (hazard ratio (HR) = 9.1), platelet count <150 × 103/μL (HR = 3.7), and LS ≥9.3 kPa (HR = 13.8) were independent predictors (all p < 0.05) that were used to develop a risk prediction model for HCC development, together with AST ≥34 IU/L. AUCs for predicting HCC development at 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.948, 0.947, and 0.939, respectively. This model was validated in the validation cohort (AUC 0.777, 0.781, and 0.784 at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively). The new risk prediction model for NAFLD-related HCC development showed acceptable performance in the training and validation cohorts.

Global epidemiology of NAFLD-related HCC: trends, predictions, risk factors and prevention

One quarter of the global population is estimated to have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The incidence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is projected to increase by up to 56% in the next 10 years. NAFLD is already the fastest growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the USA, France and the UK. Globally, the prevalence of NAFLD-related HCC is likely to increase concomitantly with the growing obesity epidemic. The estimated annual incidence of HCC ranges from 0.5% to 2.6% among patients with NASH cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC among patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD is lower, approximately 0.1 to 1.3 per 1,000 patient-years. Although the incidence of NAFLD-related HCC is lower than that of HCC of other aetiologies such as hepatitis C, more people have NAFLD than other liver diseases. Urgent measures that increase global awareness and tackle the metabolic risk factors are necessary to reduce the impending burden of NAFLD-related HCC. Emerging evidence indicates that reduced immune surveillance, increased gut inflammation and gut dysbiosis are potential key steps in tumorigenesis. In this Review, we discuss the global epidemiology, projections and risk factors for NAFLD-related HCC, and propose preventive strategies to tackle this growing problem.

Changes in Characteristics of Patients with Liver Cirrhosis Visiting a Tertiary Hospital over 15 Years: a Retrospective Multi-Center Study in Korea

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis has become a heavy burden not only for patients, but also for our society. However, little is known about the recent changes in clinical outcomes and characteristics of patients with cirrhosis-related complications in Korea. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate changes in characteristics of patients with liver cirrhosis in Daegu-Gyeongbuk province in Korea over the past 15 years.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 15,716 liver cirrhotic patients from 5 university hospitals in Daegu-Gyeongbuk province from 2000 to 2014. The Korean Standard Classification of Diseases-6 code associated with cirrhosis was investigated through medical records and classified according to the year of first visit.

RESULTS

A total of 15,716 patients was diagnosed with cirrhosis. A number of patients newly diagnosed with cirrhosis has decreased each year. In 2000, patients were most likely to be diagnosed with hepatitis B virus (HBV) cirrhosis, followed by alcoholic cirrhosis. There was a significant decrease in HBV (P < 0.001), but alcohol, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) showed a significant increase during the study period (alcohol, P = 0.036; HCV, P = 0.001; NAFLD, P = 0.001). At the time of initial diagnosis, the ratio of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class A gradually increased from 23.1% to 32.9% (P < 0.001). The most common cause of liver-related hospitalization in 2000 was hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (25.5%); in 2014, gastrointestinal bleeding with esophageal and gastric varices (21.4%) was the most common cause. Cases of hospitalization with liver-related complication represented 76.4% of all cases in 2000 but 70.9% in 2014. Incidence rate of HCC has recently increased. In addition, HCC-free survival was significantly lower in CTP class A than in classes B and C. Finally, there was significant difference in HCC occurrence according to causes (P < 0.001). HBV and HCV cirrhosis had lower HCC-free survival than alcoholic and NAFLD cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

In recent years, the overall number of cirrhosis patients has decreased. This study confirmed the recent trend in decrease of cirrhosis, especially of cirrhosis due to HBV, and the increase of HCV, alcoholic and NAFLD cirrhosis. Targeted screening for at-risk patients will facilitate early detection of liver diseases allowing effective intervention and may have decreased the development of cirrhosis and its complications.

Similarities and Differences Between Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis and Other Causes of Cirrhosis

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease includes a spectrum of liver disorders that range from simple steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), fibrosis, and cirrhosis. Risk factors such as obesity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, chronic kidney disease, and smoking status increase risk of progression to cirrhosis among patients with NASH. Cirrhosis derived from non-NASH causes may share similar features with patients with NASH but embody distinct pathogenetic mechanisms, genetic associations, prognosis, and outcomes. This article discusses in detail the comparison of clinical, genetic, and outcome characteristics between patients with NASH cirrhosis as opposed to alternative causes of chronic liver disease.

Short-term clinical outcomes of patients admitted with chronic liver disease to selected teaching hospitals in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a progressive destruction of liver tissue with subsequent necrosis that persists for at least 6 months. In Ethiopia, despite the high burden report, data on CLD is limited. The objective of this study was to assess short-term clinical outcomes in patients admitted with chronic liver disease to three tertiary teaching hospitals in Ethiopia and to identify predictors of mortality.

METHODS

A cohort of 109 patients admitted with CLD to three tertiary teaching hospitals in Ethiopia, were prospectively followed from the time of admission to 30-days of hospital discharge. The study was conducted from April 1, 2018, to October 5, 2018. Kaplan-Maier curve was used to estimate survival and cox-regression analysis to identify predictors of mortality.

RESULT

A total of 109 patients (80% male) diagnosed with CLD were included. Median age of the participants was 38(IQR, 30-48). The overall median length of hospital stay was 7(IQR, 4-11) days. Of the total, 39(35.8%) patients were HBsAg positive, and 12(11%) patients were anti-HCV positive. The 30-day mortality was 38(34.9%), and most of the deaths, 31(81.6%) occurred before hospital discharge. Hepatic encephalopathy at admission; being with unidentified risk factor/etiologies of CLD and total bilirubin level were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Patients with hepatic encephalopathy at admission had approximately 11 times increased risk of death as compared to patients without hepatic encephalopathy at admission. Similarly, the hazard of mortality was 5.8 times higher in those patients with unidentified risk factor/etiology as compared to others. The risk of dying had also increased with an increase in bilirubin (1.188[95% CI, 1.0719-1.316]) level.

CONCLUSION

Approximately one-quarter of patients with CLD died during their hospital stay, and the risk of death continued after hospital discharge. Hepatic encephalopathy at admission, unidentified risk factor/etiology and increased level of total bilirubin are poor prognostic factors. Given that more than one third the patients had HBV-infection, access to antiviral drugs could help improve the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver disease in Ethiopia, as well as prevent the progression of the disease if initiated earlier.

Transitions Through Stages of Alcohol Use, Use Disorder and Remission: Findings from Te Rau Hinengaro, The New Zealand Mental Health Survey

Aims

To understand transitions from alcohol use to disorder, we examine timing of transitions between stages of alcohol use and associations between transitions and socio-demographic factors.

Short summary

Using nationally representative data, we found that the majority of alcohol use disorders develop by age 25. Increased alcohol use within a participant's cohort was associated with subsequent transition across all stages of alcohol use and disorder. Fifty percent of dependence cases had not remitted after 9 years.

Methods

A nationally representative sample with a 73% response rate included 12,992 participants aged 16 and older. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0) was used to assess age at initial alcohol consumption, commencement of regular consumption, symptoms of alcohol abuse and dependence, and year-long remission. Alcohol consumption in an age- and gender-matched cohort, education, gender and age at commencement of use were investigated as covariates.

Results

Among all respondents, 94.6% used alcohol, 85.1% used alcohol regularly, 11.4 and 4.6% had developed alcohol abuse and dependence disorders, respectively. Of those with an abuse or dependence disorder, 79.9 and 67.2% had remitted, respectively. Increased alcohol use within a participant's cohort was associated with subsequent transition across all stages. The majority of disorders had developed by age 25. Considerable time was spent with disorder; 50% of dependence cases had not remitted after 9 years. Men were at greater risk of disorder and less likely to remit.

Conclusions

Interventions should target young people and cohort-specific consumption with resources also allocated to long-term treatment provision for alcohol dependency.

A pilot study to examine the association between human gut microbiota and the host's central obesity

Background and Aim

Perturbance in the composition of human gut microbiota has been associated with metabolic disorders such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, and insulin resistance. The objectives of this study are to examine the effects of ethnicity, central obesity, and recorded dietary components on potentially influencing the human gut microbiome. We hypothesize that these factors have an influence on the composition of the gut microbiome.

Methods

Subjects of Chinese (n = 14), Malay (n = 10), and Indian (n = 11) ancestry, with a median age of 39 years (range: 22–70 years old), provided stool samples for gut microbiome profiling using 16S rRNA sequencing and completed a dietary questionnaire. The serum samples were assayed for a panel of biomarkers (interleukin‐6, tumor necrosis factor alpha, adiponectin, cleaved cytokeratin 18, lipopolysaccharide‐binding protein, and limulus amebocyte lysate). Central obesity was defined by waist circumference cut‐off values for Asians.

Results

There were no significant differences in Shannon alpha diversity for ethnicity and central obesity and no associations between levels of inflammatory cytokines and obesity. The relative abundances of Anaerofilum (P = 0.02), Gemellaceae (P = 0.02), Streptococcaceae (P = 0.03), and Rikenellaceae (P = 0.04) were significantly lower in the obese group. From principle coordinate analysis, the effects of the intake of fiber and fat/saturated fat were in contrast with each other, with clustering of obese individuals leaning toward fiber.

Conclusion

The study demonstrated that there were differences in the gut microbiome in obese individuals. Certain bacterial taxa were present in lower abundance in the group with central obesity. Fiber and fat/saturated fat diets were not the key determinants of central obesity.

Rising Inpatient Encounters and Economic Burden for Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in the USA

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the fastest-growing chronic liver disease. However, little is known about NAFLD inpatient resource utilization and clinical outcomes.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to quantify inpatient NAFLD encounters using patient-level data over time.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of de-identified data for NAFLD patients from the California Patient Discharge Database from 2006 to 2013. NAFLD patients were identified by ICD9 codes 571.40, 571.41, 571.49, 571.8, and 571.9.

RESULTS

NAFLD patients (n = 91,558) were predominantly female (60%), 45-65 years old (44%), and white (53%). Inpatient encounters increased from 8153 in 2006 to 16,457 in 2013 and were associated with a 207% increase in charges ($686 million in 2006 to $1.42 billion in 2013) and average increase in charges of 9.8% per year adjusting for inflation. Comorbidities (obesity, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, cardiovascular disease, other cancer, and renal disease) increased significantly over time (all P < 0.05). From 2006 to 2011, there were 11,463 deaths (1849 for liver-related hospitalizations) (mean follow-up 4.00 ± 2.13 years). The most significant predictors of death were age > 75 (aHR 3.9, P < 0.0001), male gender (aHR 1.10, P < 0.0001), white race (aHR 1.2, P < 0.0001), decompensated cirrhosis (aHR 2.1, P < 0.0001), and cancer other than HCC (aHR 3.2, P < 0.0001). Within the liver-related hospitalization cohort, mortality predictors were similar, except for Hispanic race (aHR 0.92, P < 0.0096) and renal disease (aHR 1.50, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The number of NAFLD inpatient encounters increased significantly from 2006 to 2013, as did the inflation-adjusted inpatient charges. The most significant predictors of death were non-liver cancers (HR 3.11, P < 0.0001, CI 3.06-3.16) and age > 75 years (HR 3.94, P < 0.0001, HR 3.86-4.03).

High-throughput metabolomics screen coupled with multivariate statistical analysis identifies therapeutic targets in alcoholic liver disease rats using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry

Identification of metabolic alterations is useful for elucidating the pathophysiology and mass spectrometry-aided metabolomic, which provides small molecule metabolites to understand underlying mechanisms of complex diseases. In this work, we developed a novel liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry-based metabolomics screen coupled with multivariate statistical analysis workflow to obtaining the metabolite annotation, visualization and rapid characterization of small molecular metabolites, then revealed the altered metabolic pathway in a rat model of alcohol-induced liver damage rats as case study. The ions were detected in both positive and negative mode, and the key biomarkers were selected through multivariate statistical screening analysis. We employed the enhanced mass spectrometry coverage method to comprehensive analysis of the metabolite data. Importantly, we further find these small molecule metabolites were associated with multiple metabolic pathways. The elucidation of these altered metabolic pathways should help identify new and specific therapeutic targets. In addition, this metabolomics workflow coupled to LC-MS/MS has been successfully applied to the identification of small molecule metabolites in this complex disease. We strongly believe that metabolomics studies will benefit from incorporating liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry strategies.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis without cirrhosis compared to other liver diseases

BACKGROUND

Given the lack of long-term prospective studies, it is challenging for clinicians to make informed decisions about screening and treatment decisions regarding the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) who do not have cirrhosis.

AIM

To characterise the pooled risk of HCC in the non-cirrhosis population.

METHODS

Published studies were identified through April 2016 in MEDLINE, Scopus, Science Citation Index, AMED and the Cochrane Library. Two independent reviewers screened citations and extracted data. Random effect odds ratios (OR) were calculated to obtain aggregate estimates of effect size between NASH and non-NASH groups. Between-study variability and heterogeneity were assessed.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies with 168 571 participants were included. Eighty-six per cent of included subjects had cirrhosis. The prevalence of HCC in non-cirrhotic NASH was 38.0%; among other aetiologies in non-cirrhotics, it was 14.2% (P < 0.001). Non-cirrhotic NASH subjects were at greater odds of developing HCC than non-cirrhotic subjects of other aetiologies (OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.27-5.35, P = 0.009). When examining all NASH subjects either with or without cirrhosis, those with NASH as the underlying liver disease did not have a significantly increased risk of HCC (OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.77-2.65, P = 0.250).

CONCLUSIONS

In non-cirrhotic subjects, those with NASH have a higher risk of HCC compared to other aetiologies of liver disease. Further study investigating the risk factors of HCC among non-cirrhotic NASH patients is needed.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Cirrhosis: A Review of Its Epidemiology, Risk Factors, Clinical Presentation, Diagnosis, Management, and Prognosis

Cirrhosis is the common end stage of a number of chronic liver conditions and a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. With the growing epidemic of obesity and metabolic syndrome, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the most common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and will become one of the leading causes of cirrhosis. Increased awareness and understanding of NAFLD cirrhosis are essential. To date, there has been no published systematic review on NAFLD cirrhosis. Thus, this article reviews recent studies on the epidemiology, risk factors, clinical presentation, diagnosis, management, and prognosis of NAFLD cirrhosis.

Clinical features and natural history of cryptogenic cirrhosis compared to hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis

AIM

To characterize natural history of cryptogenic cirrhosis (CC) and compare its clinical features and outcomes to those of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 102 consecutive patients at their first diagnosis of CC were enrolled in this study. The clinical data and outcomes were compared to an age- and Child-Pugh class-matched cohort of 110 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Diagnosis of cirrhosis was based on compatible clinical and laboratory parameters, ultrasound/endoscopic parameters and, whenever possible, on histological grounds and transient elastography. All cases of cirrhosis without a definite etiology were enrolled in the CC group. The parameters assessed were: (1) severity of liver disease at the time of first diagnosis; (2) liver decompensation during follow-up; (3) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); (4) orthotopic liver transplantation; and (5) death. The independent associated factors were evaluated by multiple logistic regression analysis, and survival and its determinants by the Kaplan-Meier model, log-rank test and Cox regression.

RESULTS

At the first observation, median age was 66 and 65 years and male gender was 36% and 58% for CC and HCV cirrhosis, respectively. CC showed Child-Pugh class A/B/C of 47%/31%/22%, respectively. Compared to HCV cirrhosis, CC exhibited a significantly higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (12% vs 54%, respectively), overweight/obesity, high BMI, impaired glucose tolerance, high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, cardiovascular diseases, extrahepatic cancer, and gallstones. Over a median period of 42 mo of follow-up, liver decompensation, HCC development and death for CC and HCV-related cirrhosis were 60.8%, and 54.4%, 16.7% and 17.2%, 39.2% and 30%, respectively. The median survival was 60 mo for CC. Independent predictors of death were age and Child-Pugh class at diagnosis. CC showed an approximately twofold higher incidence of HCC in Child-Pugh class A.

CONCLUSION

Undiagnosed nonalcoholic fatty liver disease has an etiologic role in CC that is associated with a poor prognosis, early HCC development, high risk of cardiovascular disease and extrahepatic cancer.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma among people with HBV or HCV notification in Australia (2000-2014)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

This study evaluates trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among people with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 2000 and 2014.

METHODS

Data on HBV and HCV notifications between January 1993 and December 2012 were linked to the NSW Admitted Patients Data Collection database between July 2000 and June 2014 and NSW Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages. The burden, crude and age-standardised incidence of HCC based on first hospitalization were calculated.

RESULTS

In NSW between 2000-2014, there were 54,399, 93,099 and 3,809 individuals notified with HBV, HCV and HBV/HCV coinfection respectively. There were 725 (1.3%) with HCC among those with HBV notification as compared to 1,309 with HCC (1.4%) in those with HCV notification. The population-level burden of new HCC cases per year has stabilised in the HBV cohort (53 in 2001 and 44 in 2013), but increased markedly in the HCV cohort (49 in 2001 to 151 in 2013). The age-standardised incidence rates of HCC (per 1,000 person-years) declined from 2.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4, 3.1) in 2001 to 0.9 (95% CI 0.6, 1.2) in 2012 among those with HBV and remained stable between 2001 (1.4; 95% CI 0.8, 1.9) and 2012 (1.5; 95% CI 1.2, 1.7) in those with HCV. Main factors associated with HCC in those with HBV included later study period (2005-2009; 2010-2014) (hazard ratio (HR)=0.54, 95% CI 0.42, 0.70), male gender (HR=4.50, 95% CI 3.6, 5.6), Asia-Pacific country of birth (HR=3.84, 95% CI 2.58, 5.71) and alcohol dependency (HR=2.84, 95% CI 1.95, 4.13). Main factors associated with HCC in those with HCV included male gender (HR=2.56, 95% CI 2.20, 2.98), rural place of residence (HR=0.73, 95% CI 0.62, 0.86), Asia-Pacific country of birth (HR=2.37, 95% CI 1.99, 2.82) and alcohol dependency (HR=3.90, 95% CI 3.39, 4.49).

CONCLUSIONS

Individual-level risk of HBV-related HCC has declined, suggesting an impact of more effective antiviral therapy from mid-2000s. In contrast, the interferon-containing HCV treatment era had no impact on individual-level HCV-related HCC risk and has seen escalating population-level HCC burden.

LAY SUMMARY

Individual-level risk of HBV-related HCC has declined, suggesting an impact of more effective antiviral therapy from mid-2000s. In contrast, the interferon-containing HCV treatment era had no impact on individual-level HCV-related HCC risk and has seen escalating population-level HCC burden.

Incidence, survival and cause-specific mortality in alcoholic liver disease: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We studied the incidence of severe ALD requiring hospitalization in Finland, and survival and causes of death among the ALD patients.

METHODS

A cohort of 11,873 persons (8796 men and 3077 women) with diagnosis of ALD during the years 1996-2012 was identified from Finnish national Inpatient Register. The annual incidence of alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and alcoholic liver cirrhosis was calculated. The cohort was combined with the data from national Cause of Death Register of Statistics Finland.

RESULTS

The incidence of alcoholic liver cirrhosis increased from 8.8/100,000 in year 2001 to 14.6/100,000 in year 2012 among men and from 2.4 to 4.2/100,000 among women. The incidence of AH increased from 3.7 to 6.5/100,000 among men and from 1.3 to 2.7/100,000 among women. The relative 5-year survival ratios of patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis and AH were 29 and 50% among men and 38 and 52% among women, respectively. Out of 8440 deaths, 65% were due to alcoholic-related causes. The risk of death among ALD patients was increased in malignancies (SMR 6.82; 95% CI: 6.35-7.29), cardiovascular diseases (6.13; 5.74-6.52), respiratory diseases (7.86; 6.70-9.10), dementia (3.31; 2.41-4.44) and accidents and violence (11.12; 10.13-12.15).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of AH and alcoholic liver cirrhosis is increasing. The survival is poor. Most deaths are alcohol-related and other common causes of excess deaths are cancers especially in the upper aerodigestive tract and cardiovascular, digestive and respiratory diseases as well as violence and accidents.

Prevalence and knowledge of hepatitis C in a middle-aged population, Dunedin, New Zealand

AIM: To determine the prevalence of infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in those most at risk of advanced liver disease and to identify gaps in knowledge of HCV.

METHODS: Questionnaires were mailed to randomly selected residents aged 40-59 to assess the extent of their general knowledge about HCV. The questionnaire assessed demographics, the extent of general knowledge about viral hepatitis, potential risks for infection and the prevalence of risk factors associated with increased progression of liver fibrosis. Anonymised residual laboratory blood samples from 40-59 years old people from Dunedin taken in hospital or in the community, were tested for HCV antibodies and alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT). Linear regression was performed to examine whether the demographics sex, age, socio-economic status, qualification level and occupation sector (categorical variables) were predictors of level of general knowledge about hepatitis. For the demographics that were found to be significant predictors of score outcome, multiple regression analysis was used to determine independent effects. χ² tests were used to compare our selected sample and our responder population demographics, to the demographics of the entire 40-59 years old population in Dunedin using the 2006 NZ census data. Exact confidence intervals for the proportion positive for HCV and HBV were calculated using the binomial distribution.

RESULTS: The response rate to the mailed questionnaire was 431/1400 (30.8%). On average 59.4% questions were answered correctly. Predictors for higher scores, indicating greater knowledge about symptoms and transmission included sex (female, P < 0.01), higher level of qualification (P < 0.000) and occupation sector (P < 0.000). Sharing intravenous drug utensils was a known risk factor for disease transmission (94.4%), but the sharing of common household items such as a toothbrush was not. 93% of the population were unaware that HCV infection can be asymptomatic. 25% did not know that treatment was available in New Zealand and of those who did know, only 40% assumed it was funded. Six hundred and eighty-two residual anonymised blood samples were tested for HCV antibodies, ALT, AST and GGT. The prevalence for HCV was 4.01%, 95%CI: 2.6%-5.8%. Liver function tests were not useful for identifying likelyhood of HCV infection.

CONCLUSION: Prevalence of HCV in our population is high, and the majority have limited knowledge of HCV and its treatment.