Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches

Metabarcoding and co-occurrence network reveal significant effects of mariculture on benthic eukaryotic microalgal community: A case study in Daya Bay of the South China Sea

Benthic eukaryotic microalgae were analyzed by metabarcoding the partial 18S rRNA gene in Daya Bay bi-monthly in 2021. Altogether 941 eukaryotic microalgal OTUs were detected, belonging to 27 classes of 8 phyla. Dinophyta and Chlorophyta were the dominant phyla. Microalgal community in the mariculture zone differed significantly from those in non-mariculture zone, reflected by low alpha diversity indexes and increasing abundance and richness of chlorophytes and correspondingly decreasing of dinoflagellates. The abundant occurrences of the pico- and nano-sized taxa such as the chlorophyte Picochlorum in the mariculture zone suggested that nutrient enrichment might result in the miniaturization of the benthic eukaryotic microalgae. The co-occurrence network suggested more negative interactions between taxa in the mariculture zone. A total of 41 algal bloom and/or harmful algal bloom (HAB) species were detected in this study, suggesting a high potential risk of HABs in Daya Bay, especially for the recurrent bloom species Scrippsiella acuminata.

Water stratification alters phytoplankton assemblages in scallop farming waters of the North Yellow Sea in China

As evaluation indicators of the primary productivity, the phytoplankton biomass and community structure are of great significance to the fishery industry, which can be driven by ocean currents, nutrients and water stratification. In the present study, the characteristics of phytoplankton assemblages in different water layers of a typical Yesso scallop farming area in Zhangzi Island, the North Yellow Sea were investigated from March 2021 to January 2022. According to the vertical distribution of temperature, water stratification was observed from June to August (stratification period), and disappeared in March, October and the following January with vertical homogeneity (mixing period). 18S rRNA gene sequencing results revealed that Pyrrophyta was the most dominant phylum during the sampling period, with high gene proportions in the stratification (63.36%) and mixing periods (77.35%). The gene proportion of Bacillariophyta in the stratification period was 5.44%, which was significantly lower than that in the mixing period of 8.93% (p < 0.05). Moreover, Pseudo-nitzschia, a toxin-producing taxon affiliated with Bacillariophyta, exhibited a significantly higher proportion in the stratification period than in the mixing period. During the stratification period, a number of toxin-producing taxa such as Pseudo-nitzschia and Karlodinium were enriched in the bottom layer, which was 1.29-fold and 1.37-fold of that in the surface layer, respectively. Redundancy analysis showed that phosphate and water temperature were major environmental factors driving the vertical distribution of phytoplankton assemblages. The phosphate (0.11 μM) and silicate (2.09 μM) concentrations in the surface layer approached the minimum threshold for phytoplankton growth, and the stoichiometric limitation of phosphate was detected in the surface and middle layers. Collectively, these results indicated that the decreased proportion ratio of Bacillariophyta to Pyrrophyta and unfavorable community composition of Bacillariophyta for scallops were observed during summer, which might result from the phosphate limitation driven by water stratification. The results will further our understanding of the dynamics of phytoplankton communities under the background of intensifying ocean stratification and provide ecological guidance for mollusc mariculture.

Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization

Climate change is profoundly affecting the physical environment and biota of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf ecosystem. To understand adaptations to climate change, in particular warming temperatures, we used bottom trawl survey data to describe the size of individual fish and macroinvertebrates. Using species distribution models to estimate abundance and biomass, we determined body size in weight for all modeled species. We demonstrate a tendency for increased abundance and biomass and a concomitant decline in body size over time. An analysis of length frequency data supports this assertion. There was no trend in the combined anthropogenic removals from the ecosystem, i.e. catches, suggesting a limited role of fisheries in influencing these changes. The changes in the fish and macroinvertebrate communities are consistent with the hypothesis of a tropicalization of this ecosystem, where the ecosystem experiences a change in diversity, abundance, biomass, and the size of individuals consistent with lower latitudes. The changes in how productivity is expressed in the ecosystem factors into how human populations relate to it; in a practical sense, change in body size will likely influence the strategies and efficiencies of harvest procedures and the industries built to support them.

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate-impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.

Sustainable reference points for multispecies coral reef fisheries

Sustainably managing fisheries requires regular and reliable evaluation of stock status. However, most multispecies reef fisheries around the globe tend to lack research and monitoring capacity, preventing the estimation of sustainable reference points against which stocks can be assessed. Here, combining fish biomass data for >2000 coral reefs, we estimate site-specific sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries and use these and available catch estimates to assess the status of global coral reef fish stocks. We reveal that >50% of sites and jurisdictions with available information have stocks of conservation concern, having failed at least one fisheries sustainability benchmark. We quantify the trade-offs between biodiversity, fish length, and ecosystem functions relative to key benchmarks and highlight the ecological benefits of increasing sustainability. Our approach yields multispecies sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries using environmental conditions, a promising means for enhancing the sustainability of the world's coral reef fisheries.

An integrative perspective on fish health: Environmental and anthropogenic pathways affecting fish stress

Multifactorial studies assessing the cumulative effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on individual stress response are crucial to understand how organisms and populations cope with environmental change. We tested direct and indirect causal pathways through which environmental stressors affect the stress response of wild gilthead seabream in Mediterranean costal lagoons using an integrative PLS-PM approach. We integrated information on 10 environmental variables and 36 physiological variables into seven latent variables reflecting lagoons features and fish health. These variables concerned fish lipid reserves, somatic structure, inorganic contaminant loads, and individual trophic and stress response levels. This modelling approach allowed explaining 30 % of the variance within these 46 variables considered. More importantly, 54 % of fish stress response was explained by the dependent lagoon features, fish age, fish diet, fish reserve, fish structure and fish contaminant load latent variables included in our model. This integrative study sheds light on how individuals deal with contrasting environments and multiple ecological pressures.

Response of phytoplankton functional types to Hurricane Fabian (2003) in the Sargasso Sea

Understanding how tropical cyclones affect phytoplankton communities is important for studies on ecological variability. Most studies assessing the post-storm phytoplankton response rely on satellite observations of chlorophyll a concentration, which inform on the ocean surface conditions and the whole phytoplankton community. In this work, we assess the potential of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology marine ecosystem model to account for the response of individual phytoplankton functional types (PFTs, coccolithophores, diatoms, diazotrophs, mixotrophic dinoflagellates, picoeukaryotes, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus) in the euphotic zone to the passage of Hurricane Fabian (2003) across the tropical and subtropical Sargasso Sea. Fabian induced a significant mean concentration increase (t-test, p < 0.05) of all PFTs in the tropical waters (except for Prochlorococcus), which was driven by the mean nutrient concentration increase and by a limited zooplankton grazing pressure. More specifically, the post-storm nutrient enrichment increased the contribution of fast-growing PFTs (e.g. diatoms and coccolithophores) to the total phytoplankton concentration and decreased the contribution of slow-growing dominant groups (e.g. picoeukaryotes, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus), which lead to a significant increase (t-test, p < 0.05) of the Shannon diversity index values. Overall, the model captured the causal relationship between nutrient and PFT concentration increases in the tropical waters, although it only reproduced the most pronounced PFT responses such as those in the deep euphotic zone. In contrast, the model did not capture the oceanic perturbations induced by Fabian as observed in satellite imagery in the subtropical waters, probably due to its limited performance in this complex oceanographic area.

Coral reefs benefit from reduced land-sea impacts under ocean warming

Coral reef ecosystems are being fundamentally restructured by local human impacts and climate-driven marine heatwaves that trigger mass coral bleaching and mortality1. Reducing local impacts can increase reef resistance to and recovery from bleaching2. However, resource managers lack clear advice on targeted actions that best support coral reefs under climate change3 and sector-based governance means most land- and sea-based management efforts remain siloed4. Here we combine surveys of reef change with a unique 20-year time series of land-sea human impacts that encompassed an unprecedented marine heatwave in Hawai'i. Reefs with increased herbivorous fish populations and reduced land-based impacts, such as wastewater pollution and urban runoff, had positive coral cover trajectories predisturbance. These reefs also experienced a modest reduction in coral mortality following severe heat stress compared to reefs with reduced fish populations and enhanced land-based impacts. Scenario modelling indicated that simultaneously reducing land-sea human impacts results in a three- to sixfold greater probability of a reef having high reef-builder cover four years postdisturbance than if either occurred in isolation. International efforts to protect 30% of Earth's land and ocean ecosystems by 2030 are underway5. Our results reveal that integrated land-sea management could help achieve coastal ocean conservation goals and provide coral reefs with the best opportunity to persist in our changing climate.

Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world's oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world's oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world's oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.

A composite fishing index to support the monitoring and sustainable management of world fisheries

Overfishing has severe social, economic, and environmental ramifications. Eliminating global overfishing is one of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs require effective policy and progress monitoring. However, current indicators are issue-specific and cannot be utilized to measure fisheries efficacy holistically. This study develops a comprehensive index that takes into account the inputs, outputs, and ecological implications of fisheries. These components are then merged to form a single composite fishing index that evaluates both total fishing pressure on the ecosystem and historical patterns. The global fishing intensity grew by a factor of eleven between 1950 and 2017, and geographical differences emerged. The fishing intensity of developed countries peaked in 1997 and has since fallen due to management, but developing countries' fishing intensity has increased continuously over the whole research period, with quasi-linear growth after 1980. Africa has experienced the most rapid expansion in fishing activity and now has the highest fishing intensity. This index takes a more comprehensive and objective look at fisheries. Its worldwide spatial-temporal comparison enables the identification of similar temporal trends across countries or regions, as well as areas of uneven development and hotspot sites for targeted policy action.

Redistribution of fisheries catch potential in Mediterranean and North European waters under climate change scenarios

The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of global warming where key commercial species, such as demersal and pelagic fishes, and cephalopods, could experience abrupt distribution shifts in the near future. However, the extent to which these range shifts may impact fisheries catch potential remains poorly understood at the scale of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Here, we evaluated the projected changes in Mediterranean fisheries catches potential, by target fishing gears, under different climate scenarios throughout the 21st century. We show that the future Mediterranean maximum catch potential may decrease considerably by the end of the century under high emission scenarios in South Eastern Mediterranean countries. These projected decreases range between -20 to -75 % for catch by pelagic trawl and seine, -50 to -75 % for fixed nets and traps and exceed -75 % for benthic trawl. In contrast, fixed nets and traps, and benthic trawl fisheries may experience an increase in their catch potential in the North and Celtic seas, while future catches by pelagic trawl and seine may decrease in the same areas. We show that a high emission scenario may considerably amplify the future redistribution of fisheries catch potential across European Seas, thus highlighting the need to limit global warming. Our projections at the manageable scale of EEZ and the quantification of climate-induced impacts on a large part of the Mediterranean and European fisheries is therefore a first, and considerable step toward the development of climate mitigation and adaptations strategies for the fisheries sector.

Toward a Global Model of Methylmercury Biomagnification in Marine Food Webs: Trophic Dynamics and Implications for Human Exposure

Marine fish is an excellent source of nutrition but also contributes the most to human exposure to methylmercury (MMHg), a neurotoxicant that poses significant risks to human health on a global scale and is regulated by the Minamata Convention. To better predict human exposure to MMHg, it is important to understand the trophic transfer of MMHg in the global marine food webs, which remains largely unknown, especially in the upper trophic level (TL) biota that is more directly relevant to human exposure. In this study, we couple a fish ecological model and an ocean methylmercury model to explore the influencing factors and mechanisms of MMHg transfer in marine fish food webs. Our results show that available MMHg in the zooplankton strongly determines the MMHg in fish. Medium-sized fish are critical intermediaries that transfer more than 70% of the MMHg circulating in food webs. Grazing is the main factor to control MMHg concentrations in different size categories of fish. Feeding interactions affected by ecosystem structures determine the degree of MMHg biomagnification. We estimate a total of 6.1 metric tons of MMHg potentially digested by the global population per year through marine fish consumption. The model provides a useful tool to quantify human exposure to MMHg through marine fish consumption and thus fills a critical gap in the effectiveness evaluation of the convention.

Carbon footprint, economic benefits and sustainable fishing: Lessons for the future from the Western Mediterranean

Ensuring an economically viable, sustainable and low CO₂ emission extractive fishery is critical in order to achieve the life below water UN sustainable development goals and the climate change commitments of Paris agreement. This challenge is even more relevant in the most overexploited region of the world: The Mediterranean Sea. Here, we use the socio-ecological system of the Spanish Mediterranean commercial fisheries (Northern Alboran Sea, Northern Spain and the Balearic Islands) to develop an integrative impact assessment, including detailed socio-economic, ecosystem indices of the trophic structure of extractive fishery and CO₂ emission analyses combining different gear, vessel size classes as well as a wide range estimation of carbon release from the seafloor by bottom trawling. Northern Alboran Sea preferentially requires reduction in purse seine fishery while in Northern Spain bottom trawling should be reduced first to reach sustainable exploitation. Fuel CO₂ footprint of purse seine and bottom trawling are among the lowest footprints of animal protein production, but considering sweeping released CO₂ from the seafloor the bottom trawling footprint becomes the animal protein production with the highest footprint. Moreover, the lowest bottom released CO₂ estimation overrides 2.7-10 times the CO₂ buried in the seafloor through the biological pump in trawled areas potentially turning the continental shelf from a CO₂ sink to a CO₂ source. Net profit per fuel derived CO₂ emission for all fleets is lower than 1€ kgCO₂^-1, being lowest for large bottom trawler (0.025 € kgCO₂^-1). Thus, urgent mitigation and adaptation measures are necessary to obtain sustainable fishery in terms of net profit, sustainable seafood extraction and CO₂ emission reduction. Our study provides scientific bases to develop these measures such as the restriction of harmful fishing gear in carbon rich river influenced areas, reduction of bottom contact of the fishing gear, favouring purse seine fishery and smaller bottom trawlers.

Delayed trophic response of a marine predator to ocean condition and prey availability during the past century

Understanding the response of predators to ecological change at multiple temporal scales can elucidate critical predator-prey dynamics that would otherwise go unrecognized. We performed compound-specific nitrogen stable isotope analysis of amino acids on 153 harbor seal museum skull specimens to determine how trophic position of this marine predator has responded to ecosystem change over the past century. The relationships between harbor seal trophic position, ocean condition, and prey abundance, were analyzed using hierarchical modeling of a multi-amino-acid framework and applying 1, 2, and 3 years temporal lags. We identified delayed responses of harbor seal trophic position to both physical ocean conditions (upwelling, sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge) and prey availability (Pacific hake, Pacific herring, and Chinook salmon). However, the magnitude and direction of the trophic position response to ecological changes depended on the temporal delay. For example, harbor seal trophic position was negatively associated with summer upwelling but had a 1-year delayed response to summer sea surface temperature, indicating that some predator responses to ecosystem change are not immediately observable. These results highlight the importance of considering dynamic responses of predators to their environment as multiple ecological factors are often changing simultaneously and can take years to propagate up the food web.

Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Phytoplankton Primary Production in a Shallow Temperate Coastal Lagoon (Ria Formosa, Portugal)

Coastal lagoons are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, and they provide a wide range of ecosystem services and resources. In the Ria Formosa (southern Portugal), phytoplankton production has rarely been addressed. The main goal of this study is thus to evaluate the variability of phytoplankton production and photosynthetic characteristics over the seasonal cycle and in different locations (landward, urban, intermediate, and seaward boundaries) of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, subjected to distinct natural and anthropogenic stressors. Primary production was evaluated using the ¹⁴C incorporation technique, and photosynthetic parameters were estimated by fitting photosynthesis-irradiance curves. Primary production showed significant seasonal variations, with higher values in the summer associated with lower euphotic depths, higher water temperatures, and higher nutrient concentrations. No spatial differences were found for primary production or photosynthetic parameters. Primary production values were lower than previous estimates, which reflects an improvement in water quality in the Ria Formosa, but values are higher than primary production estimates for other temperate coastal ecosystems, which reflects the highly productive nature of this coastal lagoon.

Bacterioplankton communities reveal horizontal and vertical influence of an Island Mass Effect

Coral reefs are highly productive ecosystems with distinct biogeochemistry and biology nestled within unproductive oligotrophic gyres. Coral reef islands have often been associated with a nearshore enhancement in phytoplankton, a phenomenon known as the Island Mass Effect (IME). Despite being documented more than 60 years ago, much remains unknown about the extent and drivers of IMEs. Here we utilized 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding as a biological tracer to elucidate horizontal and vertical influence of an IME around the islands of Mo'orea and Tahiti, French Polynesia. We show that those nearshore oceanic stations with elevated chlorophyll a included bacterioplankton found in high abundance in the reef environment, suggesting advection of reef water is the source of altered nearshore biogeochemistry. We also observed communities in the nearshore deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) with enhanced abundances of upper euphotic bacterioplankton that correlated with intrusions of low-density, O₂ rich water, suggesting island influence extends into the DCM.

Stochastic Modelling to Assess External Environmental Drivers of Atlantic Chub Mackerel Population Dynamics

The population dynamics of small and middle-sized pelagic fish are subject to considerable interannual and interdecadal fluctuations in response to fishing pressure and natural factors. However, the impact of environmental forcing on these stocks is not well documented. The Moroccan Atlantic coast is characterized by high environmental variability due to the upwelling phenomenon, resulting in a significant abundance and variation in the catches of small and middle-sized pelagic species. Therefore, understanding the evolution of stock abundance and its relationship with different oceanographic conditions is a key issue for fisheries management. However, because of the limited availability of independent-fishery data along the Moroccan Atlantic coast, there is a lack of knowledge about the population dynamics. The main objective of this study is to test the correlation between the environment conditions and the stock fluctuations trends estimated by a stock assessment model that does not need biological information on growth, reproduction, and length or age structure as input. To achieve this objective, the fishery dynamics are analyzed with a stochastic surplus production model able to assimilate data from surveys and landings for a biomass trend estimation. Then, in a second step, the model outputs are correlated with different environmental (physical and biogeochemical) variables in order to assess the influence of different environmental drivers on population dynamics. This two-step procedure is applied for chub mackerel along the Moroccan coast, where all these available datasets have not been used together before. The analysis performed showed that larger biomass estimates are linked with periods of lower salinity, higher chlorophyll, higher net primary production, higher nutrients, and lower subsurface oxygen, i.e., with an enhanced strength of the upwelling. In particular, acute anomalies of these environmental variables are observed in the southern part presumably corresponding to the wintering area of the species in the region. The results indicate that this is a powerful procedure, although with important limitations, to deepen our understanding of the spatiotemporal relationships between the population and the environment in this area. Moreover, once these relationships have been identified, they could be used to generate a mathematical relationship to simulate future population trends in diverse environmental scenarios.

Linking key human-environment theories to inform the sustainability of coral reefs

Effective solutions to the ongoing "coral reef crisis" will remain limited until the underlying drivers of coral reef degradation are better understood. Here, we conduct a global-scale study of how four key metrics of ecosystem states and processes on coral reefs (top predator presence, reef fish biomass, trait diversity, and parrotfish scraping potential) are explained by 11 indicators based on key human-environment theories from the social sciences. Our global analysis of >1,500 reefs reveals three key findings. First, the proximity of the nearest market has the strongest and most consistent relationships with these ecosystem metrics. This finding is in keeping with a body of terrestrial research on how market accessibility shapes agricultural practices, but the integration of these concepts in marine systems is nascent. Second, our global study shows that resource conditions tend to display a n-shaped relationship with socioeconomic development. Specifically, the probabilities of encountering a top predator, fish biomass, and fish trait diversity were highest where human development was moderate but lower where development was either high or low. This finding contrasts with previous regional-scale research demonstrating an environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (which predicts a U-shaped relationship between socioeconomic development and resource conditions). Third, together, our ecosystem metrics are best explained by the integration of different human-environment theories. Our best model includes the interactions between indicators from different theoretical perspectives, revealing how marine reserves can have different outcomes depending on how far they are from markets and human settlements, as well as the size of the surrounding human population.

Highly-resolved interannual phytoplankton community dynamics of the coastal Northwest Atlantic

Microbial observatories can track phytoplankton at frequencies that resolve monthly, seasonal, and multiyear trends in environmental change from short-lived events. Using 4-years of weekly flow cytometry along with chloroplast and cyanobacterial 16S rRNA gene sequence data from a time-series station in the coastal Northwest Atlantic (Bedford Basin, Nova Scotia, Canada), we analyzed temporal observations for globally-relevant genera (e.g., Bolidomonas, Teleaulax, Minidiscus, Chaetoceros, Synechococcus, and Phaeocystis) in an oceanic region that has been recognized as a likely hotspot for phytoplankton diversity. Contemporaneous Scotian Shelf data also collected during our study established that the major phytoplankton within the Bedford Basin were important in the Scotian Shelf during spring and fall, therefore pointing to their broader significance within the coastal Northwest Atlantic (NWA). Temporal trends revealed a subset of indicator taxa along with their DNA signatures (e.g., Eutreptiella and Synechococcus), whose distribution patterns make them essential for timely detection of environmentally-driven shifts in the NWA. High-resolution sampling was key to identifying important community shifts towards smaller phytoplankton under anomalous environmental conditions, while further providing a detailed molecular view of community compositions underpinning general phytoplankton succession within the coastal NWA. Our study demonstrates the importance of accessible coastal time-series sites where high-frequency DNA sampling allows for the detection of shifting baselines in phytoplankton communities.

Long-term prediction of sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration based on the combination of spatio-temporal features

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) events have a serious impact on marine fisheries and marine management. They occur globally with high frequency and are characterized by a long duration and difficult governance. HABs incidents have occurred in the South China Sea (SCS), and the frequency of occurrence has been on the rise in recent decades. Predicting the long-term chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration has the potential to facilitate long-term monitoring and early warning of HABs events. Currently, long-term predictions of ocean circulation and temperature are common, while long-term predictions of marine biochemistry are still in their infancy. Traditional Chl-a prediction methods have problems, such as low accuracy and the inability to carry out long-term predictions. This research improved the CNN-LSTM model by combining spatio-temporal features to predict Chl-a concentrations. This model can extract both the temporal and spatial features of Chl-a, expand the dataset, and improve the prediction accuracy and training speed. The predictions were made using a Chl-a dataset for the Reed Tablemount in the SCS. The time series of Chl-a used was the satellite data of NASA's official website from January 2002 to June 2020. The results indicate that the predictions of the CNN-LSTM model are better than those of the LSTM and SARIMA models. The five-year long-term rolling prediction of Chl-a was carried out, and the three-year Pearson correlation coefficient reached 0.5. The novelty of this study is the realization of a three-year long-term prediction of Chl-a concentrations. The Mann-Kendall trend test method and the least square method were used to fit the straight line to detect the trend of the five-year predicted value and the true value, respectively. The results indicated that the prediction value and true value of the sea surface Chl-a from 2015 to 2020 both exhibited an overall upward trend. In addition, the prediction performance of the model in large-scale prediction is better than that in small-scale prediction.

Protecting connectivity promotes successful biodiversity and fisheries conservation

The global decline of coral reefs has led to calls for strategies that reconcile biodiversity conservation and fisheries benefits. Still, considerable gaps in our understanding of the spatial ecology of ecosystem services remain. We combined spatial information on larval dispersal networks and estimates of human pressure to test the importance of connectivity for ecosystem service provision. We found that reefs receiving larvae from highly connected dispersal corridors were associated with high fish species richness. Generally, larval "sinks" contained twice as much fish biomass as "sources" and exhibited greater resilience to human pressure when protected. Despite their potential to support biodiversity persistence and sustainable fisheries, up to 70% of important dispersal corridors, sinks, and source reefs remain unprotected, emphasizing the need for increased protection of networks of well-connected reefs.

Efficiency in Chinese Large Yellow Croaker Aquaculture: Implication for Sustainable Aquaculture in China

Aquaculture supply from China has been a remedy to meet the growing global demand for seafood in the last decades. However, output growth has decreased dramatically in China in the 2000s. Previous literature focuses on the ecosystem problems arising in intensive farming in China. In this study, we used stochastic production analysis (SPA) to estimate the technical efficiency of Chinese large yellow croaker farming, which provides implications for impediments to the sustainable development of Chinese aquaculture. Data were collected from 430 large yellow croaker farmers in nine farming areas located along the coastline of southeastern China. The technical efficiency of large yellow croak farming is estimated to be 0.829, suggesting that farming is operated close to the production frontier with a maximal margin of 17% for improvement under the current technology. It further suggests that Chinese aquaculture growth is geared by conventional factors, expansion of fishing sites, and intensive farming, and is not sustainable under the constraint of farming areas and environmental problems in China. For the sustainable development of Chinese aquaculture, it is necessary to adopt new technology through innovation. The family-based farming model is a hinder to adopting new technology that requires systematic significant investment. Large-scale industrialized farming based on research and new technology development thus should be a modern trend in the future.

Spatial subsidies drive sweet spots of tropical marine biomass production

Spatial subsidies increase local productivity and boost consumer abundance beyond the limits imposed by local resources. In marine ecosystems, deeper water and open ocean subsidies promote animal aggregations and enhance biomass that is critical for human harvesting. However, the scale of this phenomenon in tropical marine systems remains unknown. Here, we integrate a detailed assessment of biomass production in 3 key locations, spanning a major biodiversity and abundance gradient, with an ocean-scale dataset of fish counts to predict the extent and magnitude of plankton subsidies to fishes on coral reefs. We show that planktivorous fish-mediated spatial subsidies are widespread across the Indian and Pacific oceans and drive local spikes in biomass production that can lead to extreme productivity, up to 30 kg ha-1 day-1. Plankton subsidies form the basis of productivity "sweet spots" where planktivores provide more than 50% of the total fish production, more than all other trophic groups combined. These sweet spots operate at regional, site, and smaller local scales. By harvesting oceanic productivity, planktivores bypass spatial constraints imposed by local primary productivity, creating "oases" of tropical fish biomass that are accessible to humans.

Primary production ultimately limits fisheries economic performance

Living marine resources (LMRs) contribute considerably to marine economies. Oceans continue to respond to the effects of global change, with environmental factors anticipated to impact future seafood production and its associated economic performance. Here we document novel relationships between primary productivity and LMR-based economics for US regional marine ecosystems and 64 international large marine ecosystems (LMEs). Intermediate relationships between production, total biomass, fisheries landings, revenue, and LMR-based employment are also elucidated. We found that all these factors were dependent on the amount of basal production in a given system. In addition, factors including human population, exploitation history, and governance interventions significantly influenced these relationships. As system productivity plays a foundational role in determining fisheries-based economics throughout global LMEs, greater accounting for these relationships has significant implications for global seafood sustainability and food security. Quantifying the direct link between primary production and fisheries economic performance serves to better inform ecosystem overfishing thresholds and their economic consequences. Further recognition and understanding of these relationships is key to ensuring that these connections are accounted for more effectively in sustainable management practices.

Assessing Summertime Primary Production Required in Changed Marine Environments in Upwelling Ecosystems Around the Taiwan Bank

The Taiwan Bank (TB) is located in the southern Taiwan Strait, where the marine environments are affected by South China Sea Warm Current and Kuroshio Branch Current in summer. The bottom water flows upward along the edge of the continental shelf, forming an upwelling region that is an essential high-productivity fishing ground. Using trophic dynamic theory, fishery resources can be converted into primary production required (PPR) by primary production, which indicates the environmental tolerance of marine ecosystems. This study calculated the PPR of benthic and pelagic species, sea surface temperature (SST), upwelling size, and net primary production (NPP) to analyze fishery resource structure and the spatial distribution of PPR in upwelling, non-upwelling, and thermal front (frontal) areas of the TB in summer. Pelagic species, predominated by those in the Scombridae, Carangidae families and Trachurus japonicus, accounted for 77% of PPR (67% of the total catch). The benthic species were dominated by Mene maculata and members of the Loliginidae family. The upwelling intensity was the strongest in June and weakest in August. Generalized additive models revealed that the benthic species PPR in frontal habitats had the highest deviance explained (28.5%). Moreover, frontal habitats were influenced by NPP, which was also the main factor affecting the PPR of benthic species in all three habitats. Pelagic species were affected by high NPP, as well as low SST and negative values of the multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index in upwelling habitats (16.9%) and non-upwelling habitats (11.5%). The composition of pelagic species varied by habitat; this variation can be ascribed to impacts from the ENSO. No significant differences were noted in benthic species composition. Overall, pelagic species resources are susceptible to climate change, whereas benthic species are mostly insensitive to climatic factors and are more affected by NPP.

Development of photosynthetic carbon fixation model using multi-excitation wavelength fast repetition rate fluorometry in Lake Biwa

Direct measurements of gross primary productivity (GPP) in the water column are essential, but can be spatially and temporally restrictive. Fast repetition rate fluorometry (FRRf) is a bio-optical technique based on chlorophyll a (Chl-a) fluorescence that can estimate the electron transport rate (ETR_PSII) at photosystem II (PSII) of phytoplankton in real time. However, the derivation of phytoplankton GPP in carbon units from ETR_PSII remains challenging because the electron requirement for carbon fixation (Ф_e,C), which is mechanistically 4 mol e⁻ mol C⁻¹ or above, can vary depending on multiple factors. In addition, FRRf studies are limited in freshwater lakes where phosphorus limitation and cyanobacterial blooms are common. The goal of the present study is to construct a robust Ф_e,C model for freshwater ecosystems using simultaneous measurements of ETR_PSII by FRRf with multi-excitation wavelengths coupled with a traditional carbon fixation rate by the ¹³C method. The study was conducted in oligotrophic and mesotrophic parts of Lake Biwa from July 2018 to May 2019. The combination of excitation light at 444, 512 and 633 nm correctly estimated ETR_PSII of cyanobacteria. The apparent range of Ф_e,C in the phytoplankton community was 1.1–31.0 mol e⁻ mol C⁻¹ during the study period. A generalised linear model showed that the best fit including 12 physicochemical and biological factors explained 67% of the variance in Ф_e,C. Among all factors, water temperature was the most significant, while photosynthetically active radiation intensity was not. This study quantifies the in situ FRRf method in a freshwater ecosystem, discusses core issues in the methodology to calculate Ф_e,C, and assesses the applicability of the method for lake GPP prediction.

Overfishing and habitat loss drive range contraction of iconic marine fishes to near extinction

Extinctions on land are often inferred from sparse sightings over time, but this technique is ill-suited for wide-ranging species. We develop a space-for-time approach to track the spatial contraction and drivers of decline of sawfishes. These iconic and endangered shark-like rays were once found in warm, coastal waters of 90 nations and are now presumed extinct in more than half (n = 46). Using dynamic geography theory, we predict that sawfishes are gone from at least nine additional nations. Overfishing and habitat loss have reduced spatial occupancy, leading to local extinctions in 55 of the 90 nations, which equates to 58.7% of their historical distribution. Retention bans and habitat protections are urgently necessary to secure a future for sawfishes and similar species.

On the robustness of an eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem exposed to multiple stressors

The resistance of an east border upwelling system was investigated using relative index of marine pelagic biomass estimates under a changing environment spanning 20-years in the strongly exploited southern Canary Current Large marine Ecosystem (sCCLME). We divided the sCCLME in two parts (north and south of Cap Blanc), based on oceanographic regimes. We delineated two size-based groups (“plankton” and “pelagic fish”) corresponding to lower and higher trophic levels, respectively. Over the 20-year period, all spatial remote sensing environmental variables increased significantly, except in the area south of Cap Blanc where sea surface Chlorophyll-a concentrations declined and the upwelling favorable wind was stable. Relative index of marine pelagic abundance was higher in the south area compared to the north area of Cap Blanc. No significant latitudinal shift to the mass center was detected, regardless of trophic level. Relative pelagic abundance did not change, suggesting sCCLME pelagic organisms were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Despite strong annual variability and the presence of major stressors (overfishing, climate change), the marine pelagic ressources, mainly fish and plankton remained relatively stable over the two decades, advancing our understanding on the resistance of this east border upwelling system.

Links between Phenology of Large Phytoplankton and Fisheries in the Northern and Central Red Sea

Phytoplankton phenology and size structure are key ecological indicators that influence the survival and recruitment of higher trophic levels, marine food web structure, and biogeochemical cycling. For example, the presence of larger phytoplankton cells supports food chains that ultimately contribute to fisheries resources. Monitoring these indicators can thus provide important information to help understand the response of marine ecosystems to environmental change. In this study, we apply the phytoplankton size model of Gittings et al. (2019b) to 20-years of satellite-derived ocean colour observations in the northern and central Red Sea, and investigate interannual variability in phenology metrics for large phytoplankton (>2 µm in cell diameter). Large phytoplankton consistently bloom in the winter. However, the timing of bloom initiation and termination (in autumn and spring, respectively) varies between years. In the autumn/winter of 2002/2003, we detected a phytoplankton bloom, which initiated ~8 weeks earlier and lasted ~11 weeks longer than average. The event was linked with an eddy dipole in the central Red Sea, which increased nutrient availability and enhanced the growth of large phytoplankton. The earlier timing of food availability directly impacted the recruitment success of higher trophic levels, as represented by the maximum catch of two commercially important fisheries (Sardinella spp. and Teuthida) in the following year. The results of our analysis are essential for understanding trophic linkages between phytoplankton and fisheries and for marine management strategies in the Red Sea.

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

An understated danger: Antimicrobial resistance in aquaculture and pet fish in Switzerland, a retrospective study from 2000 to 2017

Aquaculture is a rapidly growing field of food production. However, morbidity and mortality are higher in aquaculture species than in domestic animals. Bacterial diseases are a leading cause of farmed fish morbidity and are often treated with antimicrobials. Since most Swiss fish farms release effluents directly into surface water without treatment and since aquaculture fish are consumed by humans, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and multi-resistance in aquaculture fish are important for environmental and public health. In this study, AMR tests for 14 antimicrobials were performed on 1,448 isolates from 1,134 diagnostic laboratory submissions from farmed and ornamental fish submissions for the period from 2000 to 2017. Amoxicillin, gentamycin and norfloxacin had the lowest proportion of resistant samples. However, AMR was highly variable over time. Resistance proportions were higher in: (a) ornamental fish compared with farmed fish, (b) fish from recirculation systems compared with those from other farming systems and (c) isolates originating from skin compared with those originating from inner organs. Multiple resistances were common. The results of this study provide useful data for Swiss fish veterinarians and some interesting hypotheses about risk factors for AMR in aquaculture and pet fish in Switzerland. However, further research is needed to define risk factors.

Increasing picocyanobacteria success in shelf waters contributes to long-term food web degradation

Continental margins are disproportionally important for global primary production, fisheries and CO₂ uptake. However, across the Northeast Atlantic shelves, there has been an ongoing summertime decline of key biota-large diatoms, dinoflagellates and copepods-that traditionally fuel higher tropic levels such as fish, sea birds and marine mammals. Here, we combine multiple time series with in situ process studies to link these declines to summer nutrient stress and increasing proportions of picophytoplankton that can comprise up to 90% of the combined pico- and nanophytoplankton biomass in coastal areas. Among the pico-fraction, it is the cyanobacterium Synechococcus that flourishes when iron and nitrogen resupply to surface waters are diminished. Our field data show how traits beyond small size give Synechococcus a competitive edge over pico- and nanoeukaryotes. Key is their ability to grow at low irradiances near the nutricline, which is aided by their superior light-harvesting system and high affinity to iron. However, minute size and lack of essential biomolecules (e.g. omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and sterols) render Synechococcus poor primary producers to sustain shelf sea food webs efficiently. The combination of earlier spring blooms and lower summer food quantity and quality creates an increasing period of suboptimal feeding conditions for zooplankton at a time of year when their metabolic demand is highest. We suggest that this nutrition-related mismatch has contributed to the widespread, ~50% decline in summer copepod abundance we observe over the last 60 years. With Synechococcus clades being prominent from the tropics to the Arctic and their abundances increasing worldwide, our study informs projections of future food web dynamics in coastal and shelf areas where droughts and stratification lead to increasing nutrient starvation of surface waters.

Quantifying the primary biotic resource use by fisheries: A global assessment

In this paper, the specific primary production required (SPPR expressed as kg-NPP/kg-fish in wet weight) of more than 1700 marine species were calculated directly from 96 published food web models using the newly developed SPPR calculation framework. The relationship between SPPR and other ecological factors were then statistically analyzed. Among- and within-species variability of SPPR were found to be both explained by trophic level (TL), suggesting similar mechanisms underpinning both sources of variability. Among species, we found that harvesting species at higher mean trophic levels (MTL) increases the mean SPPR by a factor of 19 per 1 unit increase in MTL. Based on our empirical relationship, the mean SPPR of more than 9000 marine species were predicted and subsequently used to assess the primary production required (PPR) to support fisheries in five major fishing countries in Europe. The results indicated that conventional approach to estimating PPR, which neglects food web ecology, can underestimate PPR by up to a factor of 5. Within species, we found that harvesting populations occupying a higher TL leads to a higher SPPR. For example, the SPPR of Atlantic cod in the Celtic Sea (TL = 4.75) was 5 times higher than in the Gilbert Bay (TL = 3.3). Our results, which are based on large amounts of field data, highlight the importance of properly accounting for ecological factors during the impact assessment of fisheries.

Validation of a Primary Production Algorithm of Vertically Generalized Production Model Derived from Multi-Satellite Data around the Waters of Taiwan

Basin-scale sampling for high frequency oceanic primary production (PP) is available from satellites and must achieve a strong match-up with in situ observations. This study evaluated a regionally high-resolution satellite-derived PP using a vertically generalized production model (VGPM) with in situ PP. The aim was to compare the root mean square difference (RMSD) and relative percent bias (Bias) in different water masses around Taiwan. Determined using light–dark bottle methods, the spatial distribution of VGPM derived from different Chl-a data of MODIS Aqua (PPA), MODIS Terra (PPT), and averaged MODIS Aqua and Terra (PPA&T) exhibited similar seasonal patterns with in situ PP. The three types of satellite-derived PPs were linearly correlated with in situ PPs, the coefficients of which were higher throughout the year in PPA&T (r2 = 0.61) than in PPA (r2 = 0.42) and PPT (r2 = 0.38), respectively. The seasonal RMSR and bias for the satellite-derived PPs were in the range of 0.03 to 0.09 and −0.14 to −0.39, respectively, which suggests the PPA&T produces slightly more accurate PP measurements than PPA and PPT. On the basis of environmental conditions, the subareas were further divided into China Coast water, Taiwan Strait water, Northeastern upwelling water, and Kuroshio water. The VPGM PP in the four subareas displayed similar features to Chl-a variations, with the highest PP in the China Coast water and lowest PP in the Kuroshio water. The RMSD was higher in the Kuroshio water with an almost negative bias. The PPA exhibited significant correlations with in situ PP in the subareas; however, the sampling locations were insufficient to yield significant results in the China Coast water.

Primary productivity connects hilsa fishery in the Bay of Bengal

Tropical hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha) contributes significantly to the society and economy of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar, but little is known about their habitats across the life cycle and their relationship with environmental drivers. This study describes spatial and temporal variability of productivity in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) relating to hilsa fishery. Decadal data on net primary productivity, nutrients (i.e. nitrate, phosphate and silicate) and zooplankton were collected from Aqua MODIS, world ocean database and COPEPOD respectively with spatial resolution 1°×1°. Moreover, monthly abundance of phytoplankton, hilsa catch and long-term catch dynamics were analyzed to determine the associations between variables. The present study was extended over 3.568 million km² area, of which 0.131–0.213 million km² area characterized as the most productive with net primary production of >2,000 mg C/m²/day, 0.373–0.861 million km² area as moderately productive with 500–2,000 mg C/m²/day, and 2.517–3.040 million km² area as the least productive with <500 mg C/m²/day which were consistent with field verification data. In case of nutrients, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta was rich in nitrate and phosphate than that of the Ayeyarwady delta, while silicate concentration persisted high all over the northern BoB including the deltas. A peak abundance of phytoplankton was observed in GBM delta during the months of August-November, when ~80% of total hilsa are harvested in Bangladesh annually. Variations in seasonal productivity linked with nutrients and phytoplankton abundance are important factors for predicting hilsa habitat and their migration patterns in the deltaic regions and shelf waters of BoB. These results can be useful in forecasting potential responses of the hilsa in BoB ecosystem to changing global ocean productivity.

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life-history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the 'no effective mitigation' representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.

Cascading effects of climate change on plankton community structure

Plankton communities account for at least half of global primary production and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Warming and acidification may alter the interaction chains in these communities from the bottom and top of the food web. Yet, the relative importance of these potentially complex interactions has not yet been quantified. Here, we examine the isolated and combined effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in phytoplankton and predator abundances in a series of factorial experiments. We find that warming directly impacts the top of the food web, but that the intermediate trophic groups are more strongly influenced by indirect effects mediated by altered top-down interactions. Direct manipulations of predator and phytoplankton abundance reveal similar strong top-down interactions following top predator decline. A meta-analysis of published experiments further supports the conclusion that warming has stronger direct impacts on the top and bottom of the food web rather than the intermediate trophic groups, with important differences between freshwater and marine plankton communities. Our results reveal that the trophic effect of warming cascading down from the top of the plankton food web is a powerful agent of global change.

Linking the scientific knowledge on marine frontal systems with ecosystem services

Primary production hotspots in the marine environment occur where the combination of light, turbulence, temperature and nutrients makes the proliferation of phytoplankton possible. Satellite-derived surface chlorophyll-a distributions indicate that these conditions are frequently associated with sharp water mass transitions named "marine fronts". Given the link between primary production, consumers and ecosystem functions, marine fronts could play a key role in the production of ecosystem services (ES). Using the shelf break front in the Argentine Sea as a study case, we show that the high primary production found in the front is the main ecological feature that supports the production of tangible (fisheries) and intangible (recreation, regulation of atmospheric gases) marine ES and the reason why the provision of ES in the Argentine Sea concentrates there. This information provides support to satellite chlorophyll as a good indicator of multiple marine ES. We suggest that marine fronts could be considered as marine ES hot spots.

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs).

RECENT FINDINGS

The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models.

SUMMARY

Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Factors Regulating the Relationship Between Total and Size-Fractionated Chlorophyll-a in Coastal Waters of the Red Sea

Phytoplankton biomass and size structure are recognized as key ecological indicators. With the aim to quantify the relationship between these two ecological indicators in tropical waters and understand controlling factors, we analyzed the total chlorophyll-a concentration, a measure of phytoplankton biomass, and its partitioning into three size classes of phytoplankton, using a series of observations collected at coastal sites in the central Red Sea. Over a period of 4 years, measurements of flow cytometry, size-fractionated chlorophyll-a concentration, and physical-chemical variables were collected near Thuwal in Saudi Arabia. We fitted a three-component model to the size-fractionated chlorophyll-a data to quantify the relationship between total chlorophyll and that in three size classes of phytoplankton [pico- (<2 μm), nano- (2–20 μm) and micro-phytoplankton (>20 μm)]. The model has an advantage over other more empirical methods in that its parameters are interpretable, expressed as the maximum chlorophyll-a concentration of small phytoplankton (pico- and combined pico-nanophytoplankton, Cpm and Cp,nm, respectively) and the fractional contribution of these two size classes to total chlorophyll-a as it tends to zero (D_p and D_p,n). Residuals between the model and the data (model minus data) were compared with a range of other environmental variables available in the dataset. Residuals in pico- and combined pico-nanophytoplankton fractions of total chlorophyll-a were significantly correlated with water temperature (positively) and picoeukaryote cell number (negatively). We conducted a running fit of the model with increasing temperature and found a negative relationship between temperature and parameters Cpm and Cp,nm and a positive relationship between temperature and parameters D_p and D_p,n. By harnessing the relative red fluorescence of the flow cytometric data, we show that picoeukaryotes, which are higher in cell number in winter (cold) than summer (warm), contain higher chlorophyll per cell than other picophytoplankton and are slightly larger in size, possibly explaining the temperature shift in model parameters, though further evidence is needed to substantiate this finding. Our results emphasize the importance of knowing the water temperature and taxonomic composition of phytoplankton within each size class when understanding their relative contribution to total chlorophyll. Furthermore, our results have implications for the development of algorithms for inferring size-fractionated chlorophyll from satellite data, and for how the partitioning of total chlorophyll into the three size classes may change in a future ocean.

Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model

Climate variations have a profound impact on marine ecosystems and the communities that depend upon them. Anticipating ecosystem shifts using global Earth system models (ESMs) could enable communities to adapt to climate fluctuations and contribute to long-term ecosystem resilience. We show that newly developed ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions can skillfully predict satellite-derived seasonal to multiannual chlorophyll fluctuations in many regions. Prediction skill arises primarily from successfully simulating the chlorophyll response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and capturing the winter reemergence of subsurface nutrient anomalies in the extratropics, which subsequently affect spring and summer chlorophyll concentrations. Further investigations suggest that interannual fish-catch variations in selected large marine ecosystems can be anticipated from predicted chlorophyll and sea surface temperature anomalies. This result, together with high predictability for other marine-resource-relevant biogeochemical properties (e.g., oxygen, primary production), suggests a role for ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions in dynamic marine resource management efforts.

Remote sensing of spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton assemblages in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and east China sea

Marine phytoplankton accounts for roughly half the planetary primary production, and plays significant roles in marine ecosystem functioning, physical and biogeochemical processes, and climate changes. Documenting phytoplankton assemblages' dynamics, particularly their community structure properties, is thus a crucial and also challenging task. A large number of in situ and space-borne observation datasets are collected that cover the marginal seas in the west Pacific, including Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. Here, a customized region-specific semi-analytical model is developed in order to detect phytoplankton community structure properties (using phytoplankton size classes, PSCs, as its first-order delegate), and repeatedly tested to assure its reliable performance. Independent in situ validation datasets generate relatively low and acceptable predictive errors (e.g., mean absolute percentage errors, MAPE, are 38.4%, 22.7%, and 34.4% for micro-, nano-, and picophytoplankton estimations, respectively). Satellite synchronization verification also produces comparative predictive errors. By applying this model to long time-series of satellite data, we document the past two-decadal (namely from 1997 to 2017) variation on the PSCs. Satellite-derived records reveal a general spatial distribution rule, namely microphytoplankton accounts for most variation in nearshore regions, when nanophytoplankton dominates offshore water areas, together with a certain high contribution from picophytoplankton. Long time-series of data records indicate a roughly stable tendency during the period of the past twenty years, while there exist periodical changes in a short-term one-year scale. High covariation between marine environment factors and PSCs are further found, with results that underwater light field and sea surface temperature are the two dominant climate variables which exhibit a good ability to multivariate statistically model the PSCs changes in these marginal seas. Specifically, three types of influence induced by underwater light field and sea surface temperature can be generalized to cover different water conditions and regions, and meanwhile a swift response time (approximately < 1 month) of phytoplankton to the changing external environment conditions is found by the wavelet analysis. This study concludes that phytoplankton community structures in the marginal seas remain stable and are year-independent over the past two decades, together with a short-term in-year cycle; this change rule need to be considered in future oceanographic studies.

Global ecosystem overfishing: Clear delineation within real limits to production

The well-documented value of marine fisheries is threatened by overfishing. Management typically focuses on target populations but lacks effective tools to document or restrain overexploitation of marine ecosystems. Here, we present three indices and accompanying thresholds to detect and delineate ecosystem overfishing (EOF): the Fogarty, Friedland, and Ryther indices. These are based on widely available and readily interpreted catch and satellite data that link fisheries landings to primary production using known limits of trophic transfer efficiency. We propose theoretically and empirically based thresholds for each of those indices; with these criteria, several ecosystems are fished sustainably, but nearly 40 to 50% of tropical and temperate ecosystems exceed even extreme thresholds. Applying these criteria to global fisheries data results in strong evidence for two specific instances of EOF, increases in both pressure on tropical fish and a climate-mediated polar shift. Here, we show that these two patterns represent evidence for global EOF.

Metabolic asymmetry and the global diversity of marine predators

Species richness of marine mammals and birds is highest in cold, temperate seas—a conspicuous exception to the general latitudinal gradient of decreasing diversity from the tropics to the poles. We compiled a comprehensive dataset for 998 species of sharks, fish, reptiles, mammals, and birds to identify and quantify inverse latitudinal gradients in diversity, and derived a theory to explain these patterns. We found that richness, phylogenetic diversity, and abundance of marine predators diverge systematically with thermoregulatory strategy and water temperature, reflecting metabolic differences between endotherms and ectotherms that drive trophic and competitive interactions. Spatial patterns of foraging support theoretical predictions, with total prey consumption by mammals increasing by a factor of 80 from the equator to the poles after controlling for productivity.