Dynamics of Mara-Serengeti ungulates in relation to land use changes

Distribution range and human-hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibious) conflict in the Lake Tana biosphere reserve, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibious) is a semi-aquatic mammal that is considered the third largest living land mammal still alive on earth. The main objective of this study was to determine the distribution range and human-hippopotamus conflicts in the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve, Ethiopia. Data were collected from June 2022 to January 2023. Total count methods were used to estimate the hippopotamus population, and Arc GIS was used to determine the distribution range and habitat suitability of hippopotamus. Structured questionnaire and focus group discussions were used to collect data on human-hippopotamus conflict. Data were analysed using One-way ANOVA, independent t-test, and chi-sqaure test.

RESULTS

The mean population estimation of hippopotamus in in the study area showed 252.67 ± 15.9 with a density of 0.072 individuals per km2. The suitable slope analysis of hippopotamus along the the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve's shoreline revealed that 4.7% of the shoreline was most suitable, 48.4% moderately suitable, and 46.9% not suitable. Variations in the hippopotamus' habitat suitability within the study area have been associated with a number of factors including availability of water, food, elevation, and vegetation cover. Crop raiding and overgrazing were the primary causes for conflict.

CONCLUSION

In order to conserve hippopotamus in the in the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve, appropriate conservation measures including habitat protection and restoration, and community engagement and education need to be developed. Moreover, further research on the ecological aspects of the Lake's ecosystem is required to ensure the conservation of hippopotamus.

Rethinking livestock encroachment at a protected area boundary

The presence of livestock inside protected areas, or "livestock encroachment," is a global conservation concern because livestock is broadly thought to negatively affect wildlife. The Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR), Kenya, exemplifies this tension as livestock is believed to have resulted in the declining wildlife populations, contributing to the strict and sometimes violent exclusion measures targeting Maasai pastoralists. However, research embedded in the real-world setting that draws insights from the social-ecological contexts is lacking. In this study, we conducted 19 mo of ecological monitoring covering 60 sites in MMNR and found that cattle presence inside the reserve did not significantly impact most co-occurring wild herbivores at the current intensity. Using the Hierarchical Modeling of Species Communities and Gaussian copula graphic models, we showed that cattle had no direct associations-neither negative nor positive-with nearly all wild herbivores despite frequently sharing the same space. Moreover, we did not detect resource degradation correlated with cattle presence near the MMNR boundary. Given the colonial legacy and land use history of Mara, entering MMNR becomes the only viable option for many herders. These results corroborate the emerging perspective that the ecological impacts of extensively herded livestock on wildlife might be more nuanced than previously thought. To effectively balance the needs of people, livestock, and wildlife, the current rigid livestock exclusion measures need to be reassessed to holistically consider herbivore ecology, local land use history, and modern politics of protected area management.

Artificial Water Troughs Use by the Mountain Ungulate Ovis gmelini ophion (Cyprus Mouflon) at Pafos Forest

For large herbivores inhabiting arid/semi-arid environments, water can be a limiting resource affecting their distribution and abundance for periods when water requirements are not met via forage. The Cyprus mouflon (Ovis gmelini ophion) is such a species, which is endemic to the mountain habitats of Cyprus. Recognizing water scarcity to be a major pressure to the mouflon, and with global warming projected to intensify hot and dry periods in the region, the Game and Fauna Service has been maintaining a network of locally designed watering troughs in Pafos Forest-the mouflon's stronghold-since 1997. This study describes the mouflon's use of the water troughs and examines whether visitation rates differed at the daily or weekly scale in response to environmental, climatic or anthropogenic parameters. Using camera traps, ten troughs were monitored from September 2017 to March 2018 (1,065 days; range 29-164 days per trough). Mouflon were detected at seven troughs (mean herd size 1.5 ± 1.2) during 373 independent detections (≥30 min interval between photographs), with visits peaking during late morning and midday hours. Generalized mixed-effect models showed mouflon visiting water troughs more frequently during hotter days, regardless of recent precipitation. Visits were also more frequent at water troughs located close to tar roads. Moreover, there was no evidence of mouflon avoiding water troughs used by predators (red foxes, feral dogs) at either daily or weekly scale, or during hunting days. The study supports the value of artificial water troughs for mediating, partially at least, the effects of climate change on mountain ungulates such as the Cyprus mouflon. Additional studies are proposed that will examine both mouflon drinking patterns across all seasons and ways of improving the effectiveness of the current water trough grid.

New land tenure fences are still cropping up in the Greater Mara

Expanding and intensifying anthropogenic land use is one of the greatest drivers of changes of biodiversity loss and political inequality worldwide. In the Greater Mara, Kenya, a trend of private land enclosure is currently happening, led by smallholders wishing to protect and uphold their land titles. Here we expand on previous work by Løvschal et al. quantifying the rapid, large-scale development of fencing infrastructure that began in 1985 but has increased by 170% from 2010 onwards. We provide fine-scale analysis of the spatial and temporal trends in fencing using high-resolution Sentinel-2 imagery. The formally unprotected regions have distinctly more fences than the rest of the Mara, one experiencing a 740% increase in fenced land in four years. Conservancies have an effect in stemming fencing but fences crop up within and along conservancy boundaries. We estimate the actual geographical coverage of the fences in the Mara to be 130,277 ha (19% of the total region) using an error margin of 8%, derived by calibrating our satellite mapping with ground-truth data. The study suggests the need for revising community-based eco-conservation efforts and pursuing a richer understanding of the socio-political and historical dynamics underlying this phenomenon.

Risk perception and tolerance shape variation in agricultural use for a transboundary elephant population

To conserve wide-ranging species in human-modified landscapes, it is essential to understand how animals selectively use or avoid cultivated areas. Use of agriculture leads to human-wildlife conflict, but evidence suggests that individuals may differ in their tendency to be involved in conflict. This is particularly relevant to wild elephant populations. We analysed GPS data of 66 free-ranging elephants in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem to quantify their use of agriculture. We then examined factors influencing the level of agricultural use, individual change in use across years and differences in activity budgets associated with use. Using clustering methods, our data grouped into four agricultural use tactics: rare (<0.6% time in agriculture; 26% of population), sporadic (0.6%-3.8%; 34%), seasonal (3.9%-12.8%; 31%) and habitual (>12.8%; 9%). Sporadic and seasonal individuals represented two-thirds (67%) of recorded GPS fixes in agriculture, compared to 32% from habitual individuals. Increased agricultural use was associated with higher daily distance travelled and larger home range size, but not with age or sex. Individual tactic change was prevalent and the habitual tactic was maintained in consecutive years by only five elephants. Across tactics, individuals switched from diurnal to nocturnal activity during agricultural use, interpreted as representing similar risk perception of cultivated areas. Conversely, tactic choice appeared to be associated with differences in risk tolerance between individuals. Together, our results suggest that elephants are balancing the costs and benefits of crop usage at both fine (e.g. crop raid events) and long (e.g. yearly tactic change) temporal scales. The high proportion of sporadic and seasonal tactics also highlights the importance of mitigation strategies that address conflict arising from many animals, rather than targeted management of habitual crop raiders. Our approach can be applied to other species and systems to characterize individual variation in human resource use and inform mitigations for human-wildlife coexistence.

ANTIBODY PREVALENCE TO AFRICAN SWINE FEVER VIRUS, MYCOBACTERIUM BOVIS, FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE VIRUS, RIFT VALLEY FEVER VIRUS, INFLUENZA A VIRUS, AND BRUCELLA AND LEPTOSPIRA SPP. IN FREE-RANGING WARTHOG (PHACOCHOERUS AFRICANUS) POPULATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA

The warthog (Phacochoerus africanus) can be used as a model for investigating disease transmission at the human, wildlife, and livestock interface. An omnivore and scavenger, a warthog moves freely between natural ecotypes, farmland, and human communities and is susceptible to diseases of zoonotic, agricultural, and conservation concern. A retrospective study using 100 individual serum samples collected from May 1999 to August 2016 was performed to determine antibody prevalence to seven pathogens in warthogs from five locations in northeastern South Africa. Higher prevalence of antibodies to African swine fever virus and Mycobacterium bovis were detected in warthogs from the Greater Kruger National Park ecosystem in comparison to lower prevalence of antibodies to M. bovis and no antibodies to African swine fever virus in warthogs from uMhkuze Game Reserve. Low prevalence of antibodies to foot-and-mouth disease virus, Rift Valley fever virus, and influenza A virus was detected in all locations, and no antibodies against Brucella and Leptospira spp. were detected. No statistically significant difference in antibody prevalence was found between sexes for any disease. At the univariate analysis, M. bovis seropositivity was significantly different among age categories, with 49% (35/71) of adults found positive versus 29% (4/14) of juveniles and 9% (1/11) of sub-adults (Fisher's exact test, P=0.020), and between the sampling locations (Fisher's exact test, P=0.001). The multivariate model results indicated that juvenile warthogs had lower odds of testing positive to M. bovis antibodies than adults (juveniles' odds ratio [OR]=0.17, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02-1.0), although this result was not statistically significant at the 5% level (P=0.052). For warthogs sampled at Satara Buffalo Camp, the odds (OR=0.22, 95% CI: 0.035-0.96) of being M. bovis antibody positive were significantly lower (P=0.043) than for warthogs sampled at Skukuza. Of particular interest in this study was the detection of warthogs seropositive for influenza A virus.

Animal movement in a pastoralist population in the Maasai Mara Ecosystem in Kenya and implications for pathogen spread and control

Livestock movements are important drivers for infectious disease transmission. However, paucity of such data in pastoralist communities in rangeland ecosystems limits our understanding of their dynamics and hampers disease surveillance and control. The aim of this study was to investigate animal movement networks in a pastoralist community in Kenya, and assess network-based strategies for disease control. We used network analysis to characterize five types of between-village animal movement networks. We then evaluated implications of these networks for disease spread and control by quantifying topological changes in the network associated with targeted and random removal of nodes. To construct these networks, data were collected using standardized questionnaires (N = 165 households) from communities living within the Maasai Mara Ecosystem in southwestern Kenya. Our analyses show that the Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR), a protected wildlife area, was critical for maintaining village connectivity in the agistment network (dry season grazing), with MMNR-adjacent villages being highly utilized during the dry season. In terms of disease dynamics, the network-based basic reproduction number, R₀, was sufficient to allow disease invasion in all the five networks, and removal of villages based on degree or betweenness was not efficient in reducing R₀. However, we show that villages with high degree or betweenness may play an important role in maintaining network connectivity, which may not be captured by assessment of R₀ alone. Such villages may function as potential "firebreaks." For example, targeted removal of highly connected village nodes was more effective at fragmenting each network than random removal of nodes, indicating that network-based targeting of interventions such as vaccination could potentially disrupt transmission pathways in the ecosystem. In conclusion, this work shows that animal movements have the potential to shape patterns of disease transmission in this ecosystem, with targeted interventions being a practical and efficient measure for disease control.

Transboundary Basins Need More Attention: Anthropogenic Impacts on Land Cover Changes in Aras River Basin, Monitoring and Prediction

Changes in land cover (LC) can alter the basin hydrology by affecting the evaporation, infiltration, and surface and subsurface flow processes, and ultimately affect river water quantity and quality. This study aimed to monitor and predict the LC composition of a major, transboundary basin contributing to the Caspian Sea, the Aras River Basin (ARB). To this end, four LC maps of ARB corresponding to the years 1984, 2000, 2010, and 2017 were generated using Landsat satellite imagery from Armenia and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The LC gains and losses, net changes, exchanges, and the spatial trend of changes over 33 years (1984–2017) were investigated. The most important drivers of these changes and the most accurate LC transformation scenarios were identified, and a land change modeler (LCM) was applied to predict the LC change for the years 2027 and 2037. Validation results showed that LCM, with a Kappa index higher than 81%, is appropriate for predicting LC changes in the study area. The LC changes observed in the past indicate significant anthropogenic impacts on the basin, mainly by constructing new reservoir dams and expanding agriculture and urban areas, which are the major water-consuming sectors. Results show that over the past 33 years, agricultural areas have grown by more than 57% from 1984 to 2017 in the study area. Results also indicate that the given similar anthropogenic activities will keep on continuing in the ARB, and agricultural areas will increase by 2% from 2017 to 2027, and by another 1% from 2027 to 2037. Results of this study can support transboundary decision-making processes to analyze potential adverse impacts following past policies with neighboring countries that share the same water resources.

Long-term historical and projected herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro crater, Tanzania

The Ngorongoro Crater is an intact caldera with an area of approximately 310 km² located within the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) in northern Tanzania. It is known for the abundance and diversity of its wildlife and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and an International Biosphere Reserve. Long term records (1963–2012) on herbivore populations, vegetation and rainfall made it possible to analyze historic and project future herbivore population dynamics. NCA was established as a multiple use area in 1959. In 1974 there was a perturbation in that resident Maasai and their livestock were removed from the Ngorongoro Crater. Thus, their pasture management that was a combination of livestock grazing and fire was also removed and 'burning' stopped being a regular occurrence until it was resumed in 2001 by NCA management. The Maasai pasture management would have selected for shorter grasses and more palatable species. Vegetation mapping in 1966–1967 recorded predominately short grasslands. Subsequent vegetation mapping in the crater in 1995 determined that the grassland structure had changed such that mid and tall grasses were dominant. After removal of the Maasai pastoralists from the Ngorongoro Crater in 1974, there were significant changes in population trends for some herbivore species. Buffalo, elephant and ostrich numbers increased significantly during 1974–2012. The zebra population was stable from 1963 to 2012 whereas population numbers of five species declined substantially between 1974 and 2012 relative to their peak numbers during 1974–1976. Grant’s and Thomson’s gazelles, eland, kongoni, and waterbuck (wet season only) declined significantly in the Crater in both seasons after 1974. In addition, some herbivore species were consistently more abundant inside the Crater during the wet than the dry season. This pattern was most evident for the large herbivore species requiring bulk forage, i.e., buffalo, eland, and elephant. Even with a change in grassland structure, total herbivore biomass remained relatively stable from 1963 to 2012, implying that the crater has a stable carrying capacity. Analyses of rainfall indicated that there was a persistent cycle of 4.83 years for the annual component. Herbivore population size was correlated with rainfall in both the wet and dry seasons. The relationships established between the time series of historic animal counts in the wet and dry seasons and lagged wet and dry season rainfall series were used to forecast the likely future trajectories of the wet and dry season population size for each species under three alternative climate change scenarios.

Seroprevalence of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle herds raised in Maasai Mara ecosystem in Kenya

A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) seroprevalence and identify risk factors of exposure among cattle herds raised in three zones with different types of land use and progressively distant from the Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR) boundary. We selected five villages purposively; two in zone 1 (area < 20 km from the MMNR), another two in zone 2 (area between 20-40 km away from the MMNR) and one in zone 3 (area >40 km away from the MMNR). A total of 1170 cattle sera were collected from 390 herds in all the zones and tested for antibodies against the non-structural proteins (NSPs) of FMD virus (FMDV) using two 3ABC-based Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay ELISA kits. All sera samples were also screened for serotype-specific antibodies using Solid Phase Competitive ELISA (SPCE) kits (IZSLER, Italy). We targeted FMDV serotypes A, O, South African Territory [SAT] 1 and SAT 2, known to be endemic in East Africa including Kenya. Data on putative risk factors for FMD seropositivity in cattle were collected using a questionnaire. The overall apparent animal-level FMD seroprevalence based on the parallel comparison of the two anti-NSPs ELISA kits was 83.8 % (95 % CI; 81.8-85.9), and differed significantly across zones. Zone 1 had a higher seroprevalence than zones 2 and 3 (χ² = 116.1, df = 2, p < 0.001). In decreasing order, the overall seroprevalences of FMDV serotypes A, SAT 2, O and SAT 1 were 26.3 % (95 % CI; 23.5-29.2), 21.4 % (95 % CI; 18.8-24.0), 21.2 % (95 % CI; 18.7-23.9) and 13.1 % (95 % CI; 11.1-15.3), respectively. The distribution of these serotypes differed significantly between zones (p < 0.05) except for SAT 2 serotype (χ² = 0.90, df = 2, p = 0.639). Both serotypes A and O were more prevalent in zones 1 and 2 than zone 3 while serotype SAT 1, was higher in zone 3 compared to other zones. The results of multivariable analyses identified animal sex (i.e., female), raising of cattle in zones 1 and 2 (areas < 40 km away from the MMNR); mixing of cattle from multiple herds at watering points, and pastoral husbandry practices, as significant predictors of animal-level FMD seropositivity. This study established that FMD seroprevalence declined with distance from the MMNR.

Consequences of climate-induced vegetation changes exceed those of human disturbance for wild impala in the Serengeti ecosystem

In East Africa, climate change is predicted to reduce vegetation quality, and pervasive human disturbance has already resulted in significant declines in biodiversity. We studied the combined effects of reduced forage quality and human disturbance on faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) concentrations. We predicted that decreasing nutritional quality and increasing human disturbance would have an additive positive effect on FGM levels in wild impala (Aepyceros melampus). Employing a space-for-time approach, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a measure of forage quality, combined with spatially explicit proxies of human disturbance across areas of different protection management strategies in the Serengeti ecosystem. We collected 639 faecal samples, spread over 4 years, including both wet and dry seasons. Impala FGM levels increased significantly with declining NDVI and, to a lesser extent, with increasing proxies for human disturbance. However, we found no interaction between the two, such that impala had elevated FGM levels with low NDVI and low FGM levels with high NDVI regardless of human disturbance levels. This implies that impala will have high FGM levels if forage quality is poor, even with significant protection and reduced human disturbance. Understanding how animals respond to and cope with changes in forage quality and human land use across different protected areas is important for conservationists and managers to better protect species at risk and predict population viability.

Zoonotic Pathogen Seroprevalence in Cattle in a Wildlife-Livestock Interface, Kenya

A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence of Brucella spp. and Leptospira spp. and risk factors of exposure in cattle in three zones with varying land use types and wildlife-livestock interactions. Five villages were selected purposively; two in areas with intensive livestock-wildlife interactions (zone 1), another two in areas with moderate livestock-wildlife interactions (zone 2) and one in areas where wildlife-livestock interactions are rarer (zone 3). Sera samples were collected from 1170 cattle belonging to 390 herds in all the zones and tested for antibodies against Brucella abortus and Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo using ELISA kits. Data on putative risk factors for seropositivity of these pathogens in cattle were collected using a questionnaire. The overall apparent animal-level seroprevalence of brucellosis and leptospirosis was, respectively, 36.9% (95% CI 34.1-39.8) and 23.5% (95% CI 21.1-26.0). Brucella spp. seroprevalence was higher in zone 1 than in zones 2 and 3 (χ2 = 25.1, df = 2, P < 0.001). Zones 1 and 2 had significantly higher Leptospira spp. seroprevalence than zone 3 (χ2 = 7.0, df = 2, P = 0.029). Results of multivariable analyses identified animal sex (female) and zones (high interface area) as significant predictors (P < 0.05) of animal-level seropositivity of Brucella spp. For Leptospira spp., important predictors of animal-level seropositivity were animal sex (female), zones (moderate interface area) and herds utilizing a communal grazing reserve. The seroprevalences of Brucella spp. and Leptospira spp. in cattle were higher in areas with moderate to high wildlife-livestock interactions than those with rare interactions.

Do protection gradients explain patterns in herbivore densities? An example with ungulates in Zambia's Luangwa Valley

Ungulate populations face declines across the globe, and populations are commonly conserved by using protected areas. However, assessing the effectiveness of protected areas in conserving ungulate populations has remained difficult. Using herd size data from four years of line transect surveys and distance sampling models, we modeled population densities of four important herbivore species across a gradient of protection on the edge of Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) while accounting for the role of various ecological and anthropogenic variables. Our goal was to test whether protection was responsible for density dynamics in this protection gradient, and whether a hunting moratorium impacted herbivore densities during the studies. For all four species, we estimated lower densities in partially protected buffer areas adjacent to SLNP (ranging from 4.5-fold to 13.2-fold lower) compared to protected parklands. Density trends through the study period were species-specific, with some species increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable in all or some regions of the protection gradient. Surprisingly, when controlling for other covariates, we found that these observed differences were not always detectably related to the level of protection or year. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for variables beyond strata of interest in evaluating the effectiveness of a protected area. This study highlights the importance of comprehensively modeling ungulate population density across protection gradients, identifies lands within an important protection gradient for targeted conservation and monitoring, documents prey depletion and expands our understanding on the drivers in a critical buffer area in Zambia.

Can hyena behaviour provide information on population trends of sympatric carnivores?

Mammalian carnivores are declining worldwide owing to human activities. Behavioural indicators have the potential to help identify population trends and inform conservation actions, although this area of research is understudied. We investigate whether behaviour is linked to abundance in a community of carnivores in the Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Anthropogenic disturbance increased exponentially in parts of the Reserve between 1988 and 2017, mainly owing to daily incursions by large numbers of livestock and tourists. Previous research showed that hyena behaviour changed markedly during this period. Through a series of vignettes, we inquire whether hyena behaviours correlate with changes in abundance of hyenas themselves, or those of other carnivore species in the region. We find that changes in spotted hyena behaviour in disturbed areas, but not in undisturbed areas, can be linked to changes in their demography (vignette 1). We also find that declines in observed lion-hyena interactions, as well as increases in spotted hyena abundance, are probably caused by competitive release of hyenas from declining lion abundance (vignette 2). Finally, we demonstrate that in some cases, hyena behaviour and demography is linked to the density and distribution of sympatric carnivores, and that behavioural changes in hyenas can provide information on shifts within the carnivore community (vignettes 3 and 4). Our vignettes reveal intriguing relationships between behaviour and demography that should be explored in future research. Pairing behavioural studies with more traditional monitoring efforts can yield useful insights regarding population and community trends, and aid wildlife conservation and management. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Cross-boundary human impacts compromise the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem

Protected areas provide major benefits for humans in the form of ecosystem services, but landscape degradation by human activity at their edges may compromise their ecological functioning. Using multiple lines of evidence from 40 years of research in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, we find that such edge degradation has effectively “squeezed” wildlife into the core protected area and has altered the ecosystem’s dynamics even within this 40,000-square-kilometer ecosystem. This spatial cascade reduced resilience in the core and was mediated by the movement of grazers, which reduced grass fuel and fires, weakened the capacity of soils to sequester nutrients and carbon, and decreased the responsiveness of primary production to rainfall. Similar effects in other protected ecosystems worldwide may require rethinking of natural resource management outside protected areas.

Evaluation of microclimates and assessment of thermal comfort of Panthera leo in the Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya

Quantifying comfort levels of lions within the Masai Mara National Reserve in Kenya is the main focus of this study. Its discourse delineates step by step the process of quantifying comfort levels of lions within the Mara. Resource-efficient measures for humans in the built environment have long been developed through the creation of passive zones and modulated ventilation. In an analogous manner, new procedures are being adapted for creating optimized microclimates in natural game reserves. This involves CFD (computational fluid dynamics)-inspired landscaping. It is seen that the predicted mean vote (PMV) values-measures of thermal comfort-exceed the expected comfortable ranges suitable for normal functioning of lions in the reserve. This calls for a detailed exploration on sustainable development of this sanctuary. The paper illustrates how modern tools in computational fluid dynamics can be used along with standard ecological models to ascertain the optimal extent of airflow, levels of hydration, and land use pattern changes affecting the prevailing microclimate.

A Comparative Overview of the Livestock-Environment Interactions in Asia and Sub-saharan Africa

Understanding the interactions between livestock and the environment in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa is essential to sustainable livestock sector development. In this comparative overview, we review the available evidence on the extent of grassland degradation, land, and water pollution by nutrients and microorganisms, water stress, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions and their relation to livestock production in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. We also draw on Asia's past livestock development trajectories and their impacts to provide guidance for future sustainable livestock development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Forward-looking policies and programs that anticipate long-term changes in the livestock sector and that assess trade-offs between policies and investments in multiple environmental domains in Sub-Saharan Africa are required to support sustainable development and guide policy decisions in the years ahead, from an environmental, social and public health perspective.

Rainfall trends and variation in the Maasai Mara ecosystem and their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics

Rainfall exerts a controlling influence on the availability and quality of vegetation and surface water for herbivores in African terrestrial ecosystems. We analyse temporal trends and variation in rainfall in the Maasai Mara ecosystem of East Africa and infer their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics. The data originated from 15 rain gauges in the Mara region (1965–2015) and one station in Narok Town (1913–2015), in Kenya’s Narok County. This is the first comprehensive and most detailed analysis of changes in rainfall in the region of its kind. Our results do not support the current predictions of the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) of very likely increases of rainfall over parts of Eastern Africa. The dry season rainfall component increased during 1935–2015 but annual rainfall decreased during 1962–2015 in Narok Town. Monthly rainfall was more stable and higher in the Mara than in Narok Town, likely because the Mara lies closer to the high-precipitation areas along the shores of Lake Victoria. Predominantly deterministic and persistent inter-annual cycles and extremely stable seasonal rainfall oscillations characterize rainfall in the Mara and Narok regions. The frequency of severe droughts increased and floods intensified in the Mara but droughts became less frequent and less severe in Narok Town. The timings of extreme droughts and floods coincided with significant periodicity in rainfall oscillations, implicating strong influences of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns on regional rainfall variability. These changing rainfall patterns have implications for animal population dynamics. The increase in dry season rainfall during 1935–2015 possibly counterbalanced the impacts of resource scarcity generated by the declining annual rainfall during 1965–2015 in Narok Town. However, the increasing rainfall extremes in the Mara can be expected to create conditions conducive to outbreaks of infectious animal diseases and reduced vegetation quality for herbivores, particularly when droughts and floods persist over multiple years. The more extreme wet season rainfall may also alter herbivore space use, including migration patterns.

The distribution and numbers of cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) in southern Africa

Assessing the numbers and distribution of threatened species is a central challenge in conservation, often made difficult because the species of concern are rare and elusive. For some predators, this may be compounded by their being sparsely distributed over large areas. Such is the case with the cheetah Acinonyx jubatus. The IUCN Red List process solicits comments, is democratic, transparent, widely-used, and has recently assessed the species. Here, we present additional methods to that process and provide quantitative approaches that may afford greater detail and a benchmark against which to compare future assessments. The cheetah poses challenges, but also affords unique opportunities. It is photogenic, allowing the compilation of thousands of crowd-sourced data. It is also persecuted for killing livestock, enabling estimation of local population densities from the numbers persecuted. Documented instances of persecution in areas with known human and livestock density mean that these data can provide an estimate of where the species may or may not occur in areas without observational data. Compilations of extensive telemetry data coupled with nearly 20,000 additional observations from 39 sources show that free-ranging cheetahs were present across approximately 789,700 km2 of Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe (56%, 22%, 12% and 10% respectively) from 2010 to 2016, with an estimated adult population of 3,577 animals. We identified a further 742,800 km2 of potential cheetah habitat within the study region with low human and livestock densities, where another ∼3,250 cheetahs may occur. Unlike many previous estimates, we make the data available and provide explicit information on exactly where cheetahs occur, or are unlikely to occur. We stress the value of gathering data from public sources though these data were mostly from well-visited protected areas. There is a contiguous, transboundary population of cheetah in southern Africa, known to be the largest in the world. We suggest that this population is more threatened than believed due to the concentration of about 55% of free-ranging individuals in two ecoregions. This area overlaps with commercial farmland with high persecution risk; adult cheetahs were removed at the rate of 0.3 individuals per 100 km2 per year. Our population estimate for confirmed cheetah presence areas is 11% lower than the IUCN's current assessment for the same region, lending additional support to the recent call for the up-listing of this species from vulnerable to endangered status.

Identification of human-carnivore conflict hotspots to prioritize mitigation efforts

Human-carnivore conflict is a primary driver of carnivore declines worldwide and resolving these conflicts is a conservation priority. However, resources to mitigate conflicts are limited and should be focused on areas of highest priority. We conducted 820 semistructured interviews with community members living within Kenya's Maasai Mara ecosystem. A multiscale analysis was used to determine the influence of husbandry and environmental factors on livestock depredation inside livestock enclosures (bomas). Areas with a high proportion of closed habitat and protected areas had the highest risk of depredation. Depredation was most likely to occur at weak bomas and at households where there were fewer dogs. We used the results to identify potential conflict hotspots by mapping the probability of livestock depredation across the landscape. 21.4% of the landscape was classified as high risk, and within these areas, 53.4% of the households that were interviewed had weak bomas. Synthesis and applications. With limited resources available to mitigate human-carnivore conflicts, it is imperative that areas are identified where livestock is most at risk of depredation. Focusing mitigation measures on high-risk areas may reduce conflict and lead to a decrease in retaliatory killings of predators.

A preliminary assessment of the extent and potential impacts of alien plant invasions in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, East Africa

This article provides a preliminary list of alien plant species in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem in East Africa. The list is based on broad-scale roadside surveys in the area and is supplemented by more detailed surveys of tourist facilities in the Masai-Mara National Reserve and adjoining conservancies. We encountered 245 alien plant species; significantly more than previous studies, of which 62 (25%) were considered to have established self-perpetuating populations in areas away from human habitation. These included species which had either been intentionally or accidentally introduced. Of the 245 alien plants, 212 (including four species considered to be native to the region) were intentionally introduced into gardens in the National Reserve and 51 (24%) had established naturalised populations within the boundaries of these tourism facilities. Of the 51 naturalised species, 23 (11% of the 212 alien species) were recorded as being invasive within the ecosystem, outside of lodges and away from other human habitation. Currently, the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem is relatively free of widespread and abundant invasive alien plants, with a few exceptions, but there are extensive populations outside of the ecosystem, particularly to the west, from where they could spread. We address the potential impacts of six species that we consider to pose the highest risks (Parthenium hysterophorus, Opuntia stricta, Tithonia diversifolia, Lantana camara, Chromolaena odorata and Prosopis juliflora). Although invasive alien plants pose substantial threats to the integrity of the ecosystem, this has not yet been widely recognised. We predict that in the absence of efforts to contain, or reverse the spread of invasive alien plants, the condition of rangelands will deteriorate, with severe negative impacts on migrating large mammals, especially wildebeest, zebra and gazelles. This will, in turn, have a substantial negative impact on tourism, which is a major economic activity in the area.Conservation implications: Invasive alien plants pose significant threats to the integrity of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem and steps will need to be taken to prevent these impacts. The most important of these would be the removal of alien species from tourist facilities, especially those which are known to be naturalised or invasive, the introduction of control programmes aimed at eliminating outlier invasive plant populations to slow down the spread, and the widespread use of biological control wherever possible.

Fencing bodes a rapid collapse of the unique Greater Mara ecosystem

With land privatization and fencing of thousands of hectares of communal grazing areas, East Africa is struggling with one of the most radical cultural and environmental changes in its history. The 668,500-hectare Greater Mara is of crucial importance for the great migrations of large mammals and for Maasai pastoralist culture. However, the magnitude and pace of these fencing processes in this area are almost completely unknown. We provide new evidence that fencing is appropriating land in this area at an unprecedented and accelerating speed and scale. By means of a mapped series of multispectral satellite imagery (1985-2016), we found that in the conservancies with the most fences, areal cover of fenced areas has increased with >20% since 2010. This has resulted in a situation where fencing is rapidly increasing across the Greater Mara, threatening to lead to the collapse of the entire ecosystem in the near future. Our results suggest that fencing is currently instantiating itself as a new permanent self-reinforcing process and is about to reach a critical point after which it is likely to amplify at an even quicker pace, incompatible with the region's role in the great wildebeest migration, wildlife generally, as well as traditional Maasai pastoralism.

Wildlife Population Dynamics in Human-Dominated Landscapes under Community-Based Conservation: The Example of Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya

Wildlife conservation is facing numerous and mounting challenges on private and communal lands in Africa, including in Kenya. We analyze the population dynamics of 44 common wildlife species in relation to rainfall variation in the Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy (NWC), located in the Nakuru-Naivasha region of Kenya, based on ground total counts carried out twice each year from March 1996 to May 2015. Rainfall in the region was quasi-periodic with cycle periods dependent on the rainfall component and varying from 2.8 years for the dry season to 10.9 years for the wet season. These oscillations are associated with frequent severe droughts and food scarcity for herbivores. The trends for the 44 wildlife species showed five general patterns during 1996–2015. 1) Steinbuck, bushbuck, hartebeest and greater kudu numbers declined persistently and significantly throughout 1996–2015 and thus merit the greatest conservation attention. 2) Klipspringer, mongoose, oribi, porcupine, cheetah, leopard, ostrich and Sykes monkey numbers also decreased noticeably but not significantly between 1996 and 2015. 3) Dik dik, eland, African hare, Jackal, duiker, hippo and Thomson’s gazelle numbers first increased and then declined between 1996 and 2015 but only significantly for duiker and hippo. 4) Aardvark, serval cat, colobus monkey, bat-eared fox, reedbuck, hyena and baboon numbers first declined and then increased but only the increases in reedbuck and baboon numbers were significant. 5) Grant’s gazelle, Grevy’s zebra, lion, spring hare, Burchell’s zebra, bushpig, white rhino, rock hyrax, topi, oryx, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe, and wildebeest numbers increased consistently between 1996 and 2015. The increase was significant only for rock hyrax, topi, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe and wildebeest. 6) Impala, buffalo, warthog, and waterbuck, numbers increased significantly and then seemed to level off between 1996 and 2015. The aggregate biomass of primates and carnivores increased overall whereas that of herbivores first increased from 1996 to 2006 and then levelled off thereafter. Aggregate herbivore biomass increased linearly with increasing cumulative wet season rainfall. The densities of the 30 most abundant species were either strongly positively or negatively correlated with cumulative past rainfall, most commonly with the early wet season component. The collaborative wildlife conservation and management initiatives undertaken on the mosaic of private, communal and public lands were thus associated with increase or no decrease in numbers of 32 and decrease in numbers of 12 of the 44 species. Despite the decline by some species, effective community-based conservation is central to the future of wildlife in the NWC and other rangelands of Kenya and beyond and is crucially dependent on the good will, effective engagement and collective action of local communities, working in partnerships with various organizations, which, in NWC, operated under the umbrella of the Nakuru Wildlife Forum.

Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72-88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011-2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977-1980. Most of Kenya's wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total "national" wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife conservation policy in Kenya. We suggest policy, institutional and management interventions likely to succeed in reducing the declines and restoring rangeland health, most notably through strengthening and investing in community and private wildlife conservancies in the rangelands.

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning

The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation.

Spatiotemporal trends of illegal activities from ranger-collected data in a Ugandan national park

Within protected areas, biodiversity loss is often a consequence of illegal resource use. Understanding the patterns and extent of illegal activities is therefore essential for effective law enforcement and prevention of biodiversity declines. We used extensive data, commonly collected by ranger patrols in many protected areas, and Bayesian hierarchical models to identify drivers, trends, and distribution of multiple illegal activities within the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area (QECA), Uganda. Encroachment (e.g., by pastoralists with cattle) and poaching of noncommercial animals (e.g., snaring bushmeat) were the most prevalent illegal activities within the QECA. Illegal activities occurred in different areas of the QECA. Poaching of noncommercial animals was most widely distributed within the national park. Overall, ecological covariates, although significant, were not useful predictors for occurrence of illegal activities. Instead, the location of illegal activities in previous years was more important. There were significant increases in encroachment and noncommercial plant harvesting (nontimber products) during the study period (1999-2012). We also found significant spatiotemporal variation in the occurrence of all activities. Our results show the need to explicitly model ranger patrol effort to reduce biases from existing uncorrected or capture per unit effort analyses. Prioritization of ranger patrol strategies is needed to target illegal activities; these strategies are determined by protected area managers, and therefore changes at a site-level can be implemented quickly. These strategies should also be informed by the location of past occurrences of illegal activity: the most useful predictor of future events. However, because spatial and temporal changes in illegal activities occurred, regular patrols throughout the protected area, even in areas of low occurrence, are also required.

Using Poaching Levels and Elephant Distribution to Assess the Conservation Efficacy of Private, Communal and Government Land in Northern Kenya

Efforts to curb elephant poaching have focused on reducing demand, confiscating ivory and boosting security patrols in elephant range. Where land is under multiple uses and ownership, determining the local poaching dynamics is important for identifying successful conservation models. Using 2,403 verified elephant, Loxodonta africana, mortality records collected from 2002 to 2012 and the results of aerial total counts of elephants conducted in 2002, 2008 and 2012 for the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem of northern Kenya, we sought to determine the influence of land ownership and use on diurnal elephant distribution and on poaching levels. We show that the annual proportions of illegally killed (i.e., poached) elephants increased over the 11 years of the study, peaking at 70% of all recorded deaths in 2012. The type of land use was more strongly related to levels of poaching than was the type of ownership. Private ranches, comprising only 13% of land area, hosted almost half of the elephant population and had significantly lower levels of poaching than other land use types except for the officially designated national reserves (covering only 1.6% of elephant range in the ecosystem). Communal grazing lands hosted significantly fewer elephants than expected, but community areas set aside for wildlife demonstrated significantly higher numbers of elephants and lower illegal killing levels relative to non-designated community lands. While private lands had lower illegal killing levels than community conservancies, the success of the latter relative to other community-held lands shows the importance of this model of land use for conservation. This work highlights the relationship between illegal killing and various land ownership and use models, which can help focus anti-poaching activities.

How Rainfall Variation Influences Reproductive Patterns of African Savanna Ungulates in an Equatorial Region Where Photoperiod Variation Is Absent

In high temperate latitudes, ungulates generally give birth within a narrow time window when conditions are optimal for offspring survival in spring or early summer, and use changing photoperiod to time conceptions so as to anticipate these conditions. However, in low tropical latitudes day length variation is minimal, and rainfall variation makes the seasonal cycle less predictable. Nevertheless, several ungulate species retain narrow birth peaks under such conditions, while others show births spread quite widely through the year. We investigated how within-year and between-year variation in rainfall influenced the reproductive timing of four ungulate species showing these contrasting patterns in the Masai Mara region of Kenya. All four species exhibited birth peaks during the putative optimal period in the early wet season. For hartebeest and impala, the birth peak was diffuse and offspring were born throughout the year. In contrast, topi and warthog showed a narrow seasonal concentration of births, with conceptions suppressed once monthly rainfall fell below a threshold level. High rainfall in the previous season and high early rains in the current year enhanced survival into the juvenile stage for all the species except impala. Our findings reveal how rainfall variation affecting grass growth and hence herbivore nutrition can govern the reproductive phenology of ungulates in tropical latitudes where day length variation is minimal. The underlying mechanism seems to be the suppression of conceptions once nutritional gains become insufficient. Through responding proximally to within-year variation in rainfall, tropical savanna ungulates are less likely to be affected adversely by the consequences of global warming for vegetation phenology than northern ungulates showing more rigid photoperiodic control over reproductive timing.

Context-dependent effects of large-wildlife declines on small-mammal communities in central Kenya

Many species of large wildlife have declined drastically worldwide. These reductions often lead to profound shifts in the ecology of entire communities and ecosystems. However, the effects of these large-wildlife declines on other taxa likely hinge upon both underlying abiotic properties of these systems and on the types of secondary anthropogenic changes associated with wildlife loss, making impacts difficult to predict. To better understand how these important contextual factors determine the consequences of large-wildlife declines on other animals in a community, we examined the effects of three common forms of large-wildlife loss (removal without replacement [using fences], removal followed by replacement with domestic stock, and removal accompanied by crop agricultural use) on small-mammal abundance, diversity, and community composition, in landscapes that varied in several abiotic attributes (rainfall, soil fertility, land-use intensity) in central Kenya. We found that small-mammal communities were indeed heavily impacted by all forms of large-wildlife decline, showing, on average: (1) higher densities, (2) lower species richness per site, and (3) different species assemblages in sites from which large wildlife were removed. However, the nature and magnitude of these effects were strongly context dependent. Rainfall, type of land-use change, and the interaction of these two factors were key predictors of both the magnitude and type of responses of small mammals. The strongest effects, particularly abundance responses, tended to be observed in low-rainfall areas. Whereas isolated wildlife removal primarily led to increased small-mammal abundance, wildlife removal associated with secondary uses (agriculture, domestic stock) had much more variable effects on abundance and stronger impacts on diversity and composition. Collectively, these results (1) highlight the importance of context in determining the impacts of large-wildlife decline on small-mammal communities, (2) emphasize the challenges in extrapolating results from controlled experimental studies to predict the effects of wildlife declines that are accompanied by secondary land-uses, and (3) suggest that, because of the context-dependent nature of the responses to large-wildlife decline, large-wildlife status alone cannot be reliably used to predict small-mammal community changes.

Population regulation of African buffalo in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem

Context The processes regulating ungulate populations have been the focus of numerous studies. For the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer Sparrman) population inhabiting the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem, rinderpest was the primary regulatory factor up to the mid-1960s. Following reduction of rinderpest and buffalo population increase, interspecific competition for food, notably with cattle and wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus Burchell), was thought to be the primary regulatory factor in the ecosystem. Aims We analysed buffalo population trends and the relationship between buffalo population growth and rainfall and density dependence in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem and discuss the findings in the context of the key ecosystem processes governing buffalo population dynamics in African savannas, namely, food limitation, competition, predation, disease and land use changes. Methods We analysed buffalo population dynamics in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem in relation to rainfall and density dependence feedback between 1984 and 2010. Key results Buffalo population growth was both significantly density-dependent and positively correlated with the dry season rainfall after, but not before, a severe drought in 1993. Buffalo numbers crashed by 48.6% in 1984–85 and by 76.1% in 1993–94 during severe droughts when food availability was lowest and competition with the more numerous cattle and wildebeest was highest. Conclusions Recovery of buffalo numbers to pre-drought levels took 8–9 years after the 1984–85 drought but was much slower, with buffaloes numbering merely 36% of their 1993 population (12 895 animals) 18 years after the 1993–94 drought despite intermittent periods of high rainfall, probably due to demographic and/or reproductive factors, heightened competition with livestock, land use changes in the adjoining pastoral ranches, lion predation and recurrent severe droughts. Implications Our findings demonstrate how food limitation caused by droughts associated with the hemispheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation can cause severe declines in and threaten the persistence of large ungulate populations. The findings also portray how density-dependent food limitation, competition, predation, land use changes and other factors can accentuate the effect of droughts and greatly prolong population recovery.

The effect of bushmeat consumption on migratory wildlife in the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania

Bushmeat hunting is a threat to wildlife populations in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including to migratory wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus and other wildlife populations in the Serengeti ecosystem. Accurate assessments of offtake through bushmeat hunting are necessary to determine whether hunting pressure on the wildebeest population is unsustainable. We used a panel dataset of local bushmeat consumption to measure offtake of wildlife and examine the long-term threat to the Serengeti wildebeest population. Based on these data we estimate an annual offtake of 97,796–140,615 wildebeest (6–10% of the current population), suggesting that previous estimates based on ecological models underestimated the effect of poaching on these populations.