Spatial scale and the conservation of threatened species

Rates of tree cover loss in key biodiversity areas on Indigenous Peoples' lands

Indigenous Peoples' lands (IPL) cover at least 38 million km2 (28.1%) of Earth's terrestrial surface. These lands can be important for biodiversity conservation. Around 20.7% of IPL intersect areas protected by government (PAs). Many sites of importance for biodiversity within IPL could make a substantial but hitherto unquantified contribution to global site-based conservation targets. Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) represent the largest global network of systematically identified sites of high importance for biodiversity. We assessed the effectiveness of IPL in slowing biodiversity loss inside and outside PAs by quantifying tree cover loss from 2000 to 2019 in KBAs at international and national levels and comparing it with losses at equivalent sites outside mapped IPL. Based on a matched sample of 1-km2 cells in KBAs inside and outside mapped IPL, tree cover loss in KBAs outside PAs was lower inside IPL than outside IPL. By contrast, tree cover loss in KBAs inside PAs was lower outside IPL than inside IPL (although the difference was far smaller). National rates of tree cover loss in KBAs varied greatly in relation to their IPL and PA status. In one half of the 44 countries we examined individually, there was no significant difference in the rate of tree cover loss in KBAs inside and outside mapped IPL. The reasons for this intercountry variation could illuminate the importance of IPL in meeting the Convention on Biological Diversity's ambition of conserving 30% of land by 2030. Critical to this will be coordinated action by governments to strengthen and enforce Indigenous Peoples' rights, secure their collective systems of tenure and governance, and recognize their aspirations for their lands and futures.

Synthesis reveals approximately balanced biotic differentiation and homogenization

It is commonly thought that the biodiversity crisis includes widespread declines in the spatial variation of species composition, called biotic homogenization. Using a typology relating homogenization and differentiation to local and regional diversity changes, we synthesize patterns across 461 metacommunities surveyed for 10 to 91 years, and 64 species checklists (13 to 500+ years). Across all datasets, we found that no change was the most common outcome, but with many instances of homogenization and differentiation. A weak homogenizing trend of a 0.3% increase in species shared among communities/year on average was driven by increased numbers of widespread (high occupancy) species and strongly associated with checklist data that have longer durations and large spatial scales. At smaller spatial and temporal scales, we show that homogenization and differentiation can be driven by changes in the number and spatial distributions of both rare and common species. The multiscale perspective introduced here can help identify scale-dependent drivers underpinning biotic differentiation and homogenization.

Key Factors behind the Dynamic Stability of Pairs of Egyptian Vultures in Continental Spain

Conservation science aims to identify the factors influencing the distribution of threatened species, thereby permitting the implementation of effective management strategies. This is key for long-lived species that require long-term monitoring such as the worldwide endangered Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus). We studied temporal and spatial variations in the distribution of breeding pairs and examined the intrinsic and anthropic factors that may be influencing the abundance of breeding territories in continental Spain. Based on the census data of breeding pairs from 2000, 2008, and 2018, we used Rank Occupancy-Abundance Profiles to assess the temporal stability of the population and identified the spatial heterogeneity through a Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation analysis. The GLMs showed that the abundance distribution was mainly influenced by the abundance of griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus) and cattle at a regional scale. Nonparametric comparisons showed that the presence of wind farms had a significant negative effect on local breeding pairs abundance, but that supplementary feeding stations and food resource-related variables had a positive impact. In light of these findings, we recommend a hierarchical approach in future conservation programs involving actions promoting regional-scale food resource availability and highlight the need to address the negative impact of wind farms at local levels.

What is conservation paleobiology? Tracking 20 years of research and development

Conservation paleobiology has coalesced over the last two decades since its formal coining, united by the goal of applying geohistorical records to inform the conservation, management, and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the field is still attempting to form an identity distinct from its academic roots. Here, we ask a deceptively simple question: What is conservation paleobiology? To track its development as a field, we synthesize complementary perspectives from a survey of the scientific community that is familiar with conservation paleobiology and a systematic literature review of publications that use the term. We present an overview of conservation paleobiology’s research scope and compare survey participants’ perceptions of what it is and what it should be as a field. We find that conservation paleobiologists use a variety of geohistorical data in their work, although research is typified by near-time records of marine molluscs and terrestrial mammals collected over local to regional spatial scales. Our results also confirm the field’s broad disciplinary basis: survey participants indicated that conservation paleobiology can incorporate information from a wide range of disciplines spanning conservation biology, ecology, historical ecology, paleontology, and archaeology. Finally, we show that conservation paleobiologists have yet to reach a consensus on how applied the field should be in practice. The survey revealed that many participants thought the field should be more applied but that most do not currently engage with conservation practice. Reflecting on how conservation paleobiology has developed over the last two decades, we discuss opportunities to promote community cohesion, strengthen collaborations within conservation science, and align training priorities with the field’s identity as it continues to crystallize.

Urbanization causes biotic homogenization of woodland bird communities at multiple spatial scales

Urbanization is a major contributor to biodiversity declines. However, studies assessing effects of urban landscapes per se (i.e., disentangled from focal habitat effects) on biodiversity across spatial scales are lacking. Understanding such scale-dependent effects is fundamental to preserve habitats along an urbanization gradient in a way that maximizes overall biodiversity. We investigated the impact of landscape urbanization on communities of woodland-breeding bird species in individual (local scale) and across multiple (regional scale) cities, while controlling for the quality of sampled habitats (woodlands). We conducted bird point counts and habitat quality mapping of trees, dead wood, and shrubs in 459 woodlands along an urban to rural urbanization gradient in 32 cities in Sweden. Responses to urbanization were measured as local and regional total diversity (γ), average site diversity (α), and diversity between sites (β). We also assessed effects on individual species and to what extent dissimilarities in species composition along the urbanization gradient were driven by species nestedness or turnover. We found that landscape urbanization had a negative impact on γ-, α-, and β-diversity irrespective of spatial scale, both regarding all woodland-breeding species and red-listed species. At the regional scale, dissimilarities in species composition between urbanization levels were due to nestedness, that is, species were lost with increased landscape urbanization without being replaced. In contrast, dissimilarities at the local scale were mostly due to species turnover. Because there was no difference in habitat quality among woodlands across the urbanization gradient, we conclude that landscape urbanization as such systematically causes poorer and more homogeneous bird communities in adjacent natural habitats. However, the high local turnover and the fact that several species benefited from urbanization demonstrates that natural habitats along the entire urbanization gradient are needed to maintain maximally diverse local bird communities.

Important marine areas for endangered African penguins before and after the crucial stage of moulting

The population of the Endangered African penguin Spheniscus demersus has decreased by > 65% in the last 20 years. A major driver of this decrease has been the reduced availability of their principal prey, sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus. To date, conservation efforts to improve prey availability have focused on spatial management strategies to reduce resource competition with purse-seine fisheries during the breeding season. However, penguins also undergo an annual catastrophic moult when they are unable to feed for several weeks. Before moulting they must accumulate sufficient energy stores to survive this critical life-history stage. Using GPS tracking data collected between 2012 and 2019, we identify important foraging areas for pre- and post-moult African penguins at three of their major colonies in South Africa: Dassen Island and Stony Point (Western Cape) and Bird Island (Eastern Cape). The foraging ranges of pre- and post-moult adult African penguins (c. 600 km from colony) was far greater than that previously observed for breeding penguins (c. 50 km from colony) and varied considerably between sites, years and pre- and post-moult stages. Despite their more extensive range during the non-breeding season, waters within 20 and 50 km of their breeding colonies were used intensively and represent important foraging areas to pre- and post-moult penguins. Furthermore, penguins in the Western Cape travelled significantly further than those in the Eastern Cape which is likely a reflection of the poor prey availability along the west coast of South Africa. Our findings identify important marine areas for pre- and post-moult African penguins and support for the expansion of fisheries-related spatio-temporal management strategies to help conserve African penguins outside the breeding season.

The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity

Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.

Protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, but management helps

International policy is focused on increasing the proportion of the Earth's surface that is protected for nature^1,2. Although studies show that protected areas prevent habitat loss^3-6, there is a lack of evidence for their effect on species' populations: existing studies are at local scale or use simple designs that lack appropriate controls^7-13. Here we explore how 1,506 protected areas have affected the trajectories of 27,055 waterbird populations across the globe using a robust before-after control-intervention study design, which compares protected and unprotected populations in the years before and after protection. We show that the simpler study designs typically used to assess protected area effectiveness (before-after or control-intervention) incorrectly estimate effects for 37-50% of populations-for instance misclassifying positively impacted populations as negatively impacted, and vice versa. Using our robust study design, we find that protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, with a strong signal that areas managed for waterbirds or their habitat are more likely to benefit populations, and a weak signal that larger areas are more beneficial than smaller ones. Calls to conserve 30% of the Earth's surface by 2030 are gathering pace¹⁴, but we show that protection alone does not guarantee good biodiversity outcomes. As countries gather to agree the new Global Biodiversity Framework, targets must focus on creating and supporting well-managed protected and conserved areas that measurably benefit populations.

Global determinants and conservation of evolutionary and geographic rarity in land vertebrates

Deciphering global trends in phylogenetic endemism is crucial for understanding broad-scale evolutionary patterns and the conservation of key elements of biodiversity. However, knowledge to date on global phylogenetic endemism and its determinants has been lacking. Here, we conduct the first global analysis of phylogenetic endemism patterns of land vertebrates (>30,000 species), their environmental correlates, and threats. We found that low temperature seasonality and high topographic heterogeneity were the main global determinants of phylogenetic endemism. While phylogenetic endemism hotspots cover 22% of Earth, these regions currently have a high human footprint, low natural land cover, minimal protection, and will be greatly affected by climate change. Evolutionarily unique, narrow-range species are crucial for sustaining biodiversity in the face of environmental change. Our global study advances the current understanding of this imperilled yet previously overlooked facet of biodiversity.

Global identification and mapping of socio-ecological production landscapes with the Satoyama Index

Production landscapes play an important role in conserving biodiversity outside protected areas. Socio-ecological production landscapes (SEPL) are places where people use for primary production that conserve biodiversity. Such places can be found around the world, but a lack of geographic information on SEPL has resulted in their potential for conservation being neglected in policies and programs. We tested the global applicability of the Satoyama Index for identifying SEPL in multi-use cultural landscapes using global land use/cover data and two datasets of known SEPL. We found that the Satoyama Index, which was developed with a focus on biodiversity and tested in Japan, could be used globally to identify landscapes resulting from complex interactions between people and nature with statistical significance. This makes SEPL more relevant in the global conservation discourse. As the Satoyama Index mapping revealed that approximately 80% of SEPL occur outside recognized conservation priorities, such as protected areas and key biodiversity areas, identifying SEPL under the scheme of other area-based conservation measures (OECM) may bring more conservation attention to SEPL. Based on the issues identified in the SEPL mapping, we discuss ways that could improve the Satoyama Index mapping at global scale with the longitudinal temporal dimension and at more local scale with spatial and thematic resolution.

Potential efficiency gains in payment programs from resolving spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the cost of supplying forest carbon

The environmental benefits and costs of conservation policies often vary over space and through time. Accounting for this spatial and temporal heterogeneity has important implications for the potential cost effectiveness of different payment program designs. In this study, we examine the cost efficiency gain from spatial and temporal targeting in payment designs for forest carbon storage in the Central and Southern Appalachian Mountains in the Eastern United States. We run a forest land change model and a carbon simulation model utilizing a panel data on forest land and its competing uses, economic returns, and spatial characteristics for each 1 km² grid cells in 1992, 2001, 2006 and 2011. A time- and space-specific carbon cost for each individual 1 km² grid cell is calculated that captures the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in carbon cost efficiency. From there, we compare carbon cost efficiency levels of various payment designs that allow for different degrees of spatial and temporal flexibility. We find that 1) spatial targeting improves carbon cost efficiency, and this efficiency gain is larger as payments become more narrowly targeted, 2) this carbon efficiency gain is present in all market conditions, but is largest in a moderately growing market and smallest in a downturn market, 3) accounting for temporal heterogeneity results in even larger carbon efficiency gains, almost double those from spatial targeting. Just as policies that enable spatial targeting (e.g., auctions) increase cost efficiency savings, so too will policy mechanisms that emphasize budget flexibility through time. These could include utilizing loans or flexible conservation financing, or allowing movement across budgeting categories within a given time period.

Global patterns of protection of elevational gradients in mountain ranges

Protected areas (PAs) that span elevational gradients enhance protection for taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and facilitate species range shifts under climate change. We quantified the global protection of elevational gradients by analyzing the elevational distributions of 44,155 PAs in 1,010 mountain ranges using the highest resolution digital elevation models available. We show that, on average, mountain ranges in Africa and Asia have the lowest elevational protection, ranges in Europe and South America have intermediate elevational protection, and ranges in North America and Oceania have the highest elevational protection. We use the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 11 to assess the proportion of elevational gradients meeting the 17% suggested minimum target and examine how different protection categories contribute to elevational protection. When considering only strict PAs [International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories I-IV, n = 24,706], nearly 40% of ranges do not contain any PAs, roughly half fail to meet the 17% target at any elevation, and ∼75% fail to meet the target throughout ≥50% of the elevational gradient. Observed elevational protection is well below optimal, and frequently below a null model of elevational protection. Including less stringent PAs (IUCN categories V-VI and nondesignated PAs, n = 19,449) significantly enhances elevational protection for most continents, but several highly biodiverse ranges require new or expanded PAs to increase elevational protection. Ensuring conservation outcomes for PAs with lower IUCN designations as well as strategically placing PAs to better represent and connect elevational gradients will enhance ecological representation and facilitate species range shifts under climate change.

The extent and predictability of the biodiversity-carbon correlation

Protecting biomass carbon stocks to mitigate climate change has direct implications for biodiversity conservation. Yet, evidence that a positive association exists between carbon density and species richness is contrasting. Here, we test how this association varies (1) across spatial extents and (2) as a function of how strongly carbon and species richness depend on environmental variables. We found the correlation weakens when moving from larger extents, e.g. realms, to narrower extents, e.g. ecoregions. For ecoregions, a positive correlation emerges when both species richness and carbon density vary as functions of the same environmental variables (climate, soil, elevation). In 20% of tropical ecoregions, there are opportunities to pursue carbon conservation with direct biodiversity co-benefits, while other ecoregions require careful planning for both species and carbon to avoid potentially perverse outcomes. The broad assumption of a linear relationship between carbon and biodiversity can lead to undesired outcomes.

Defining ecologically relevant scales for spatial protection with long-term data on an endangered seabird and local prey availability

Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, separating the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of nontarget predators is difficult, often because prey availability estimates on appropriate scales are lacking. Understanding how prey abundance at different spatial scales links to population change can help integrate the needs of nontarget predators into fisheries management by defining ecologically relevant areas for spatial protection. We investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of the Bank Cormorant (Phalacrocorax neglectus), a range-restricted endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily fished west coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii). Using Bayesian state-space modeled cormorant counts at 3 colonies, 22 years of fisheries-independent data on local lobster abundance, and generalized additive modeling, we determined the spatial scale pertinent to these relationships in areas with different lobster availability. Cormorant numbers responded positively to lobster availability in the regions with intermediate and high abundance but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure had depleted lobster stocks. The relationships were strongest when lobsters 20-30 km offshore of the colony were considered, a distance greater than the Bank Cormorant's foraging range when breeding, and may have been influenced by prey availability for nonbreeding birds, prey switching, or prey ecology. Our results highlight the importance of considering the scale of ecological relationships in marine spatial planning and suggest that designing spatial protection around focal species can benefit marine predators across their full life cycle. We propose the precautionary implementation of small-scale marine protected areas, followed by robust assessment and adaptive-management, to confirm population-level benefits for the cormorants, their prey, and the wider ecosystem, without negative impacts on local fisheries.

Metapopulation Tracking Juvenile Penguins Reveals an Ecosystem-wide Ecological Trap

Climate change and fisheries are transforming the oceans, but we lack a complete understanding of their ecological impact [1-3]. Environmental degradation can cause maladaptive habitat selection, inducing ecological traps with profound consequences for biodiversity [4-6]. However, whether ecological traps operate in marine systems is unclear [7]. Large marine vertebrates may be vulnerable to ecological traps [6], but their broad-scale movements and complex life histories obscure the population-level consequences of habitat selection [8, 9]. We satellite tracked postnatal dispersal in African penguins (Spheniscus demersus) from eight sites across their breeding range to test whether they have become ecologically trapped in the degraded Benguela ecosystem. Bayesian state-space and habitat models show that penguins traversed thousands of square kilometers to areas of low sea surface temperatures (14.5°C-17.5°C) and high chlorophyll-a (∼11 mg m^-3). These were once reliable cues for prey-rich waters, but climate change and industrial fishing have depleted forage fish stocks in this system [10, 11]. Juvenile penguin survival is low in populations selecting degraded areas, and Bayesian projection models suggest that breeding numbers are ∼50% lower than if non-impacted habitats were used, revealing the extent and effect of a marine ecological trap for the first time. These cascading impacts of localized forage fish depletion-unobserved in studies on adults-were only elucidated via broad-scale movement and demographic data on juveniles. Our results support suspending fishing when prey biomass drops below critical thresholds [12, 13] and suggest that mitigation of marine ecological traps will require matching conservation action to the scale of ecological processes [14].

How Effective Have Thirty Years of Internationally Driven Conservation and Development Efforts Been in Madagascar?

Conservation and development are intricately linked. The international donor community has long provided aid to tropical countries in an effort to alleviate poverty and conserve biodiversity. While hundreds of millions of $ have been invested in over 500 environmental-based projects in Madagascar during the period covered by a series of National Environmental Action Plans (1993–2008) and the protected areas network has expanded threefold, deforestation remains unchecked and none of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) established for 2000–2015 were likely be met. Efforts to achieve sustainable development had failed to reduce poverty or deliver progress toward any of the MDGs. Cross-sectorial policy adjustments are needed that (i) enable and catalyze Madagascar’s capacities rather than deepening dependency on external actors such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and donor countries, and that (ii) deliver improvements to the livelihoods and wellbeing of the country’s rural poor.

Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans

Several global strategies for protected area (PA) expansion have been proposed to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi target 11 as a means to stem biodiversity loss, as required by the Aichi target 12. However, habitat loss outside PAs will continue to affect habitats and species, and PAs may displace human activities into areas that might be even more important for species persistence. Here we measure the expected contribution of PA expansion strategies to Aichi target 12 by estimating the extent of suitable habitat available for all terrestrial mammals, with and without additional protection (the latter giving the counterfactual outcome), under different socio-economic scenarios and consequent land-use change to 2020. We found that expanding PAs to achieve representation targets for ecoregions under a Business-as-usual socio-economic scenario will result in a worse prognosis than doing nothing for more than 50% of the world's terrestrial mammals. By contrast, targeting protection towards threatened species can increase the suitable habitat available to over 60% of terrestrial mammals. Even in the absence of additional protection, an alternative socio-economic scenario, adopting progressive changes in human consumption, leads to positive outcomes for mammals globally and to the largest improvements for wide-ranging species.

Protected areas and global conservation of migratory birds

Migratory species depend on a suite of interconnected sites. Threats to unprotected links in these chains of sites are driving rapid population declines of migrants around the world, yet the extent to which different parts of the annual cycle are protected remains unknown. We show that just 9% of 1451 migratory birds are adequately covered by protected areas across all stages of their annual cycle, in comparison with 45% of nonmigratory birds. This discrepancy is driven by protected area placement that does not cover the full annual cycle of migratory species, indicating that global efforts toward coordinated conservation planning for migrants are yet to bear fruit. Better-targeted investment and enhanced coordination among countries are needed to conserve migratory species throughout their migratory cycle.

Global marine protected areas do not secure the evolutionary history of tropical corals and fishes

Although coral reefs support the largest concentrations of marine biodiversity worldwide, the extent to which the global system of marine-protected areas (MPAs) represents individual species and the breadth of evolutionary history across the Tree of Life has never been quantified. Here we show that only 5.7% of scleractinian coral species and 21.7% of labrid fish species reach the minimum protection target of 10% of their geographic ranges within MPAs. We also estimate that the current global MPA system secures only 1.7% of the Tree of Life for corals, and 17.6% for fishes. Regionally, the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific show the greatest deficit of protection for corals while for fishes this deficit is located primarily in the Western Indian Ocean and in the Central Pacific. Our results call for a global coordinated expansion of current conservation efforts to fully secure the Tree of Life on coral reefs.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are established to conserve species, but the extent to which they also conserve evolutionary history is not clear. Here, Mouillot et al. show that for tropical corals and fish, the current global MPA network secures only 1.7 and 17.6% of phylogenetic diversity, respectively.

Efficient expansion of global protected areas requires simultaneous planning for species and ecosystems

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)'s strategic plan advocates the use of environmental surrogates, such as ecosystems, as a basis for planning where new protected areas should be placed. However, the efficiency and effectiveness of this ecosystem-based planning approach to adequately capture threatened species in protected area networks is unknown. We tested the application of this approach in Australia according to the nation's CBD-inspired goals for expansion of the national protected area system. We set targets for ecosystems (10% of the extent of each ecosystem) and threatened species (variable extents based on persistence requirements for each species) and then measured the total land area required and opportunity cost of meeting those targets independently, sequentially and simultaneously. We discover that an ecosystem-based approach will not ensure the adequate representation of threatened species in protected areas. Planning simultaneously for species and ecosystem targets delivered the most efficient outcomes for both sets of targets, while planning first for ecosystems and then filling the gaps to meet species targets was the most inefficient conservation strategy. Our analysis highlights the pitfalls of pursuing goals for species and ecosystems non-cooperatively and has significant implications for nations aiming to meet their CBD mandated protected area obligations.

Adaptation in practice: how managers of nature conservation areas in eastern england are responding to climate change

Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different conservation areas. Topics investigated include the impacts of climate change perceived to be of the greatest importance; adaptation goals being set; management actions being carried out to achieve these goals; sources of information used; and perceived barriers to taking action. We identified major themes and issues that were apparent across the sites studied. Specifically, we found ways in which adaptation had been informed by past experience; different strategies relating to whether to accept or resist change; approaches for coping with more variable conditions; ways of taking a large-scale approach and managing sites as networks; some practical examples of aspects of adaptive management; and examples of the role that other sectors can play in both constraining and increasing a conservation area's capacity to adapt. We discuss the relevance of these findings to the growing discussion in conservation about identifying adaptation pathways for different conservation areas and a potential progression from a focus on resilience and incremental change to embracing "transformation." Though adaptation will be place-specific, we believe these findings provide useful lessons for future action in both England and other countries.

From continental priorities to local conservation: a multi-level analysis for African tortoises

Terrestrial tortoises are the most endangered group of vertebrates but they are still largely ignored for defining global conservation priorities. In this paper, we explored within a hierarchical framework the potential contribution of prioritization studies at the continental scale to the planning of local initiatives for the conservation of African tortoises at the regional level. First, we modeled the distribution of all the African tortoise species, we calculated three indicators of conservation priority (i.e. species richness, conservation value, and complementarity), and we carried out a gap analysis at continental scale. Second, we focused on the most important region for tortoise conservation and performed the same analyses at higher resolution. Finally, we compared the results from the two scales for understanding the degree to which they are complementary. Southern Africa emerged from the continental analysis as the most important region for tortoises. Within this area, the high-resolution analysis pointed out specific core sites for conservation. The relative degree of species protection was assessed similarly at the two different resolutions. Two species appeared particularly vulnerable at both scales. Priority indices calculated at high resolution were correlated to the values calculated for the corresponding cells at low resolution but the congruence was stronger for species richness. Our results suggest to integrate the calculation of conservation value and complementarity into a hierarchical framework driven by species richness. The advantages of large scale planning include its broad perspective on complementarity and the capability to identify regions with greatest conservation potential. In this light, continental analyses allow targeting fine scale studies toward regions with maximum priority. The regional analyses at fine scale allow planning conservation measure at a resolution similar to that required for the practical implementation, reducing the uncertainty associated with low resolution studies.

Pseudoreplication in tropical forests and the resulting effects on biodiversity conservation

Tropical forest ecosystems are threatened by habitat conversion and other anthropogenic actions. Timber production forests can augment the conservation value of primary forest reserves, but studies of logging effects often yield contradictory findings and thus inhibit efforts to develop clear conservation strategies. We hypothesized that much of this variability reflects a common methodological flaw, simple pseudoreplication, that confounds logging effects with preexisting spatial variation. We reviewed recent studies of the effects of logging on biodiversity in tropical forests (n = 77) and found that 68% were definitively pseudoreplicated while only 7% were definitively free of pseudoreplication. The remaining proportion could not be clearly categorized. In addition, we collected compositional data on 7 taxa in 24 primary forest research plots and systematically analyzed subsets of these plots to calculate the probability that a pseudoreplicated comparison would incorrectly identify a treatment effect. Rates of false inference (i.e., the spurious detection of a treatment effect) were >0.5 for 2 taxa, 0.3-0.5 for 2 taxa, and <0.3 for 3 taxa. Our findings demonstrate that tropical conservation strategies are being informed by a body of literature that is rife with unwarranted inferences. Addressing pseudoreplication is essential for accurately assessing biodiversity in logged forests, identifying the relative merits of specific management practices and landscape configurations, and effectively balancing conservation with timber production in tropical forests.

Native predators reduce harvest of reindeer by Sámi pastoralists

Contemporary efforts to protect biological diversity recognize the importance of sustaining traditional human livelihoods, particularly uses of the land that are compatible with intact landscapes and ecologically complete food webs. However, these efforts often confront conflicting goals. For example, conserving native predators may harm pastoralist economies because predators consume domestic livestock that sustain people. This potential conflict must be reconciled by policy, but such reconciliation requires a firm understanding of the effects of predators on the prey used by people. We used a long-term, large-scale database and Bayesian models to estimate the impacts of lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo), and brown bear (Ursus arctos) on harvest of semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) by Sami pastoralists in Sweden. The average annual harvest of reindeer averaged 25% of the population (95% credible interval = 19, 31). Annual harvest declined by 96.6 (31, 155) reindeer for each lynx family group (the surveyed segment of the lynx population) in a management unit and by 94.3 (20, 160) for each wolverine reproduction (the surveyed segment of the wolverine population). We failed to detect effects of predation by brown bear. The mechanism for effects of predation on harvest was reduced population growth rate. The rate of increase of reindeer populations declined with increasing abundance of lynx and wolverine. The density of reindeer, latitude, and weather indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation also influenced reindeer population growth rate. We conclude that there is a biological basis for compensating the Sámi reindeer herders for predation on reindeer.

Protecting important sites for biodiversity contributes to meeting global conservation targets

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of conservation efforts and now cover nearly 13% of the world's land surface, with the world's governments committed to expand this to 17%. However, as biodiversity continues to decline, the effectiveness of PAs in reducing the extinction risk of species remains largely untested. We analyzed PA coverage and trends in species' extinction risk at globally significant sites for conserving birds (10,993 Important Bird Areas, IBAs) and highly threatened vertebrates and conifers (588 Alliance for Zero Extinction sites, AZEs) (referred to collectively hereafter as ‘important sites’). Species occurring in important sites with greater PA coverage experienced smaller increases in extinction risk over recent decades: the increase was half as large for bird species with>50% of the IBAs at which they occur completely covered by PAs, and a third lower for birds, mammals and amphibians restricted to protected AZEs (compared with unprotected or partially protected sites). Globally, half of the important sites for biodiversity conservation remain unprotected (49% of IBAs, 51% of AZEs). While PA coverage of important sites has increased over time, the proportion of PA area covering important sites, as opposed to less important land, has declined (by 0.45–1.14% annually since 1950 for IBAs and 0.79–1.49% annually for AZEs). Thus, while appropriately located PAs may slow the rate at which species are driven towards extinction, recent PA network expansion has under-represented important sites. We conclude that better targeted expansion of PA networks would help to improve biodiversity trends.

Resource selection and its implications for wide-ranging mammals of the brazilian cerrado

Conserving animals beyond protected areas is critical because even the largest reserves may be too small to maintain viable populations for many wide-ranging species. Identification of landscape features that will promote persistence of a diverse array of species is a high priority, particularly, for protected areas that reside in regions of otherwise extensive habitat loss. This is the case for Emas National Park, a small but important protected area located in the Brazilian Cerrado, the world's most biologically diverse savanna. Emas Park is a large-mammal global conservation priority area but is too small to protect wide-ranging mammals for the long-term and conserving these populations will depend on the landscape surrounding the park. We employed novel, noninvasive methods to determine the relative importance of resources found within the park, as well as identify landscape features that promote persistence of wide-ranging mammals outside reserve borders. We used scat detection dogs to survey for five large mammals of conservation concern: giant armadillo (Priodontes maximus), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), jaguar (Panthera onca), and puma (Puma concolor). We estimated resource selection probability functions for each species from 1,572 scat locations and 434 giant armadillo burrow locations. Results indicate that giant armadillos and jaguars are highly selective of natural habitats, which makes both species sensitive to landscape change from agricultural development. Due to the high amount of such development outside of the Emas Park boundary, the park provides rare resource conditions that are particularly important for these two species. We also reveal that both woodland and forest vegetation remnants enable use of the agricultural landscape as a whole for maned wolves, pumas, and giant anteaters. We identify those features and their landscape compositions that should be prioritized for conservation, arguing that a multi-faceted approach is required to protect these species.