Global determinants and conservation of evolutionary and geographic rarity in land vertebrates

Capability of big data to capture threatened vertebrate diversity in protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are an essential tool for conservation amid the global biodiversity crisis. Optimizing PAs to represent species at risk of extinction is crucial. Vertebrate representation in PAs is assessed using species distribution databases from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Evaluating and addressing discrepancies and biases in these data sources are vital for effective conservation strategies. Our objective was to gain insights into the potential constraints (e.g., differences and biases) of these global repositories to objectively depict the diversity of threatened vertebrates in the global system of PAs. We assessed differences in species richness (SR) of threatened vertebrates as reported by IUCN and GBIF in PAs globally and then compared how biased this information was with reports from independent sources for a subset of PAs. Both databases showed substantial differences in SR in PAs (t = -62.35, p ≤ 0.001), but differences varied among regions and vertebrate groups. When these results were compared with data from independent assessments, IUCN overestimated SR by 575% on average and GBIF underestimated SR by 63% on average, again with variable results among regions and groups. Our results indicate the need to improve analyses of the representativeness of threatened vertebrates in PAs such that robust and unbiased assessments of PA effectiveness can be conducted. The scientific community and decision makers should consider these regional and taxonomic disparities when using IUCN and GBIF distributional data sources in PA assessment. Overall, supplementing information in these databases could lead to more robust and reliable analyses. Additional efforts to acquire more comprehensive and unbiased data on species distributions to support conservation decisions are clearly needed.

Advancing EDGE Zones to identify spatial conservation priorities of tetrapod evolutionary history

The biodiversity crisis is pruning the Tree of Life in a way that threatens billions of years of evolutionary history and there is a need to understand where the greatest losses are predicted to occur. We therefore present threatened evolutionary history mapped for all tetrapod groups and describe patterns of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) species. Using a complementarity procedure with uncertainty incorporated for 33,628 species, we identify 25 priority tetrapod EDGE Zones, which are insufficiently protected and disproportionately exposed to high human pressure. Tetrapod EDGE Zones are spread over five continents, 33 countries, and 117 ecoregions. Together, they occupy 0.723% of the world's surface but harbour one-third of the world's threatened evolutionary history and EDGE tetrapod species, half of which is endemic. These EDGE Zones highlight areas of immediate concern for researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and communicators looking to safeguard the tetrapod Tree of Life.

Global biogeographic regions for ants have complex relationships with those for plants and tetrapods

On a global scale, biodiversity is geographically structured into regions of biotic similarity. Delineating these regions has been mostly targeted for tetrapods and plants, but those for hyperdiverse groups such as insects are relatively unknown. Insects may have higher biogeographic congruence with plants than tetrapods due to their tight ecological and evolutionary links with the former, but it remains untested. Here, we develop a global regionalization for a major and widespread insect group, ants, based on the most comprehensive distributional and phylogenetic information to date, and examine its similarity to regionalizations for tetrapods and vascular plants. Our ant regionalization supports the newly proposed Madagascan and Sino-Japanese realms based on tetrapod delineations, and it recovers clusters observed in plants but not in tetrapods, such as the Holarctic and Indo-Pacific realms. Quantitative comparison suggests strong associations among different groups-plants showed a higher congruence with ants than with tetrapods. These results underscore the wide congruence of diverse distribution patterns across the tree of life and the similarities shared by insects and plants that are not captured by tetrapod groups. Our analysis highlights the importance of developing global biogeographic maps for insect groups to obtain a more comprehensive geographic picture of life on Earth.

Global conservation status of the jawed vertebrate Tree of Life

Human-driven extinction threatens entire lineages across the Tree of Life. Here we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history, using three policy-relevant approaches. First, we calculate an index of threat to overall evolutionary history, showing that we expect to lose 86-150 billion years (11-19%) of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history over the next 50-500 years. Second, we rank jawed vertebrate species by their EDGE scores to identify the highest priorities for species-focused conservation of evolutionary history, finding that chondrichthyans, ray-finned fish and testudines rank highest of all jawed vertebrates. Third, we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate families. We found that species within monotypic families are more likely to be threatened and more likely to be in decline than other species. We provide a baseline for the status of families at risk of extinction to catalyse conservation action. This work continues a trend of highlighting neglected groups-such as testudines, crocodylians, amphibians and chondrichthyans-as conservation priorities from a phylogenetic perspective.

Escarpment evolution drives the diversification of the Madagascar flora

Madagascar exhibits high endemic biodiversity that has evolved with sustained and stable rates of speciation over the past several tens of millions of years. The topography of Madagascar is dominated by a mountainous continental rift escarpment, with the highest plant diversity and rarity found along the steep, eastern side of this geographic feature. Using a process-explicit model, we show that precipitation-driven erosion and landward retreat of this high-relief topography creates transient habitat organization through multiple mechanisms, including catchment expansion, isolation of highland remnants, and formation of topographic barriers. Habitat isolation and reconnection on a million-year timescale serves as an allopatric speciation pump creating the observed biodiversity.

Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees

Across the globe, tree species are under high anthropogenic pressure. Risks of extinction are notably more severe for species with restricted ranges and distinct evolutionary histories. Here, we use a global dataset covering 41,835 species (65.1% of known tree species) to assess the spatial pattern of tree species' phylogenetic endemism, its macroecological drivers, and how future pressures may affect the conservation status of the identified hotspots. We found that low-to-mid latitudes host most endemism hotspots, with current climate being the strongest driver, and climatic stability across thousands to millions of years back in time as a major co-determinant. These hotspots are mostly located outside of protected areas and face relatively high land-use change and future climate change pressure. Our study highlights the risk from climate change for tree diversity and the necessity to strengthen conservation and restoration actions in global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees to avoid major future losses of tree diversity.

A conservation planning strategy applied to the evolutionary history of the mantellid frogs of Madagascar

Phylogenetic diversity is an increasingly applied metric used to maximize the representation of evolutionary history in spatial conservation planning. When following this approach, researchers commonly overlook sites with a relatively higher proportion of recently diverged endemic species, also known as centers of neo-endemism. Here we aim to demonstrate how targeting the conservation of different facets of diversity (taxonomic diversity, phylogenetic diversity and centers of endemism) can provide more cost-effective solutions to the conservation of the all evolutionary spectrum of biodiversity. We do so by using the mantellid frogs of Madagascar as a case study. Our results confirm that areas with high concentrations of neo-endemism can be effectively identified as conservation planning priorities only if we specifically target them. Neglecting areas that are poor in phylogenetic diversity may therefore compromise the maintenance of diversification processes, particularly when lesser proportions of the landscape are protected. This approach can be of particular interest to island ecosystems, since they often harbor unique and restricted evolutionary radiations.

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900-1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.

Disentangling the drivers of continental mammalian endemism

Endemic species and species with small ranges are ecologically and evolutionarily distinct and are vulnerable to extinction. Determining which abiotic and biotic factors structure patterns of endemism on continents can advance our understanding of global biogeographic processes, but spatial patterns of mammalian endemism have not yet been effectively predicted and reconstructed. Using novel null model techniques, we reconstruct trends in mammalian endemism and describe the isolated and combined effects of physiographic, ecological, and evolutionary factors on endemism. We calculated weighted endemism for global continental ecoregions and compared the spatial distribution of endemism to niche-based, geographic null models of endemism. These null models distribute species randomly across continents, simulating their range sizes from their degree of climatic specialization. They isolate the effects of physiography (topography and climate) and species richness on endemism. We then ran linear and structural models to determine how topography and historical climate stability influence endemism. The highest rates of mammalian endemism were found in topographically rough, climatically stable ecoregions with many species. The null model that isolated physiography did not closely approximate the observed distribution of endemism (r²  = .09), whereas the null model that incorporated both physiography and species richness did (r²  = .59). The linear models demonstrate that topography and climatic stability both influenced endemism values, but that average climatic niche breadth was not highly correlated with endemism. Climate stability and topography both influence weighted endemism in mammals, but the spatial distribution of mammalian endemism is driven by a combination of physiography and species richness. Despite its relationship to individual range size, average climate niche breadth has only a weak influence on endemism. The results highlight the importance of historical biogeographic processes (e.g. centers of speciation) and geography in driving endemism patterns, and disentangle the mechanisms structuring species ranges worldwide.

Range restricted old and young lineages show the southern Western Ghats to be both a museum and a cradle of diversity for woody plants

The Western Ghats (WG) mountain chain is a global biodiversity hotspot with high diversity and endemicity of woody plants. The latitudinal breadth of the WG offers an opportunity to determine the evolutionary drivers of latitudinal diversity patterns. We examined the spatial patterns of evolutionary diversity using complementary phylogenetic diversity and endemism measures. To examine if different regions of the WG serve as a museum or cradle of evolutionary diversity, we examined the distribution of 470 species based on distribution modelling and occurrence locations across the entire region. In accordance with the expectation, we found that the southern WG is both a museum and cradle of woody plant evolutionary diversity, as a higher proportion of both old and young evolutionary lineages are restricted to the southern WG. The diversity gradient is likely driven by high geo-climatic stability in the south and phylogenetic niche conservatism for moist and aseasonal sites. This is corroborated by persistent lineage nestedness at almost all evolutionary depths (10-135 million years), and a strong correlation of evolutionary diversity with drought seasonality, precipitation and topographic heterogeneity. Our results highlight the global value of the WG, demonstrating, in particular, the importance of protecting the southern WG-an engine of plant diversification and persistence.

A new, rare, small-ranged, and endangered mountain snake of the genus Elaphe from the Southern Levant

The genus Elaphe Fitzinger, 1833 includes 17 species of charismatic, large-sized, non-venomous, Eurasian snakes. In the Western Palearctic, the genus is represented by three species from the Elaphe quatuorlineata group ranging from the Apennine peninsula to Central Asia. The southernmost population of this group is distributed in the mountains of the Southern Levant, with more than 400 km gap to other Elaphe populations. This population has been known to science for only 50 years and is virtually unstudied due to its extreme rarity. We studied these snakes' morphological and genetic variation from the three countries where they are known to occur, i.e., Israel (Hermon, the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights), Lebanon, and Syria. We used nine mitochondrial and nuclear genes, complete mitogenome sequences, and a comprehensive morphological examination including published data, our own field observations, and museum specimens, to study its relationship to other species in the group. The three currently recognized species of the group (E. quatuorlineata, E. sauromates, E. urartica), and the Levant population, form four deeply divergent, strongly supported clades. Three of these clades correspond to the abovementioned species while the Southern Levant clade, which is genetically and morphologically distinct from all named congeners, is described here as a new species, Elaphe druzei sp. nov. The basal divergence of this group is estimated to be the Late Miocene with subsequent radiation from 5.1 to 3.9 Mya. The revealed biogeography of the E. quatuorlineata group supports the importance of the Levant as a major center of endemism and diversity of biota in Eurasia. The new species is large-sized and is one of the rarest snakes in the Western Palearctic. Because of its small mountain distribution range, in an area affected by land use and climate change, the new Elaphe urgently needs strict protection. Despite political issues, we hope this will be based on the cooperation of all countries where the new species occurs.

Diversity and Endemism of Southern African Gekkonids Linked with the Escarpment Has Implications for Conservation Priorities

South Africa is recognised for its high reptile diversity and endemism, specifically among lizards. Phylogenetic diversity, endemism, and richness can have clear implications or raise important questions in a range of fields, and most urgently in conservation. Among squamate reptiles, these indices are very commonly associated with high temperatures and topographic heterogeneity. Indeed, mountainous biogeography has been a critical driver in the radiation of the family Gekkonidae within the subregion. Here, we assess the species richness, diversity, and endemism of Gekkonidae species inhabiting South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini, accounting for phylogenetic relationships. We also employ the CANAPE method to identify regions that have neo- and/or paleoendemics. Southern African gekkonids appear to be most diverse and show high levels of endemism in three regions of Southern Africa: the northwestern Richtersveld, the escarpment running west to southeast, and the northeastern escarpment in the Limpopo province. Implications for conservation priorities are discussed.

The EDGE2 protocol: Advancing the prioritisation of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered species for practical conservation action

The conservation of evolutionary history has been linked to increased benefits for humanity and can be captured by phylogenetic diversity (PD). The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to prioritise threatened species for practical conservation that embody large amounts of evolutionary history. While there have been important research advances since 2007, they have not been adopted in practice because of a lack of consensus in the conservation community. Here, building from an interdisciplinary workshop to update the existing EDGE approach, we present an "EDGE2" protocol that draws on a decade of research and innovation to develop an improved, consistent methodology for prioritising species conservation efforts. Key advances include methods for dealing with uncertainty and accounting for the extinction risk of closely related species. We describe EDGE2 in terms of distinct components to facilitate future revisions to its constituent parts without needing to reconsider the whole. We illustrate EDGE2 by applying it to the world's mammals. As we approach a crossroads for global biodiversity policy, this Consensus View shows how collaboration between academic and applied conservation biologists can guide effective and practical priority-setting to conserve biodiversity.

Parental provisioning drives brain size in birds

Large brains support numerous cognitive adaptations and therefore may appear to be highly beneficial. Nonetheless, the high energetic costs of brain tissue may have prevented the evolution of large brains in many species. This problem may also have a developmental dimension: juveniles, with their immature and therefore poorly performing brains, would face a major energetic hurdle if they were to pay for the construction of their own brain, especially in larger-brained species. Here, we explore the possible role of parental provisioning for the development and evolution of adult brain size in birds. A comparative analysis of 1,176 bird species shows that various measures of parental provisioning (precocial vs. altricial state at hatching, relative egg mass, time spent provisioning the young) strongly predict relative brain size across species. The parental provisioning hypothesis also provides an explanation for the well-documented but so far unexplained pattern that altricial birds have larger brains than precocial ones. We therefore conclude that the evolution of parental provisioning allowed species to overcome the seemingly insurmountable energetic constraint on growing large brains, which in turn enabled bird species to increase survival and population stability. Because including adult eco- and socio-cognitive predictors only marginally improved the explanatory value of our models, these findings also suggest that the traditionally assessed cognitive abilities largely support successful parental provisioning. Our results therefore indicate that the cognitive adaptations underlying successful parental provisioning also provide the behavioral flexibility facilitating reproductive success and survival.

Environmental and topographic drivers of amphibian phylogenetic diversity and endemism in the Iberian Peninsula

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes driving biodiversity patterns and allowing their persistence is of utmost importance. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain spatial diversity patterns, including water-energy availability, habitat heterogeneity, and historical climatic refugia. The main goal of this study is to identify if general spatial drivers of species diversity patterns of phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic endemism (PE) at the global scale are also predictive of PD and PE at regional scales, using Iberian amphibians as a case study. Our main hypothesis assumes that topography along with contemporary and historical climate are drivers of phylogenetic diversity and endemism, but that the strength of these predictors may be weaker at the regional scale than it tends to be at the global scale. We mapped spatial patterns of Iberian amphibians' phylogenetic diversity and endemism, using previously published phylogenetic and distribution data. Furthermore, we compiled spatial data on topographic and climatic variables related to the water-energy availability, topography, and historical climatic instability hypotheses. To test our hypotheses, we used Spatial Autoregressive Models and selected the best model to explain diversity patterns based on Akaike Information Criterion. Our results show that, out of the variables tested in our study, water-energy availability and historical climate instability are the most important drivers of amphibian diversity in Iberia. However, as predicted, the strength of these predictors in our case study is weaker than it tends to be at global scales. Thus, additional drivers should also be investigated and we suggest caution when interpreting these predictors as surrogates for different components of diversity.

The homogenization of avian morphological and phylogenetic diversity under the global extinction crisis

Biodiversity is facing a global extinction crisis that will reduce ecological trait diversity, evolutionary history, and ultimately ecosystem functioning and services.1-4 A key challenge is understanding how species losses will impact morphological and phylogenetic diversity at global scales.5,6 Here, we test whether the loss of species threatened with extinction according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) leads to morphological and phylogenetic homogenization7,8 across both the whole avian class and within each biome and ecoregion globally. We use a comprehensive set of continuous morphological traits extracted from museum collections of 8,455 bird species, including geometric morphometric beak shape data,9 and sequentially remove species from those at most to least threat of extinction. We find evidence of morphological, but not phylogenetic, homogenization across the avian class, with species becoming more alike in terms of their morphology. We find that most biome and ecoregions are expected to lose morphological diversity at a greater rate than predicted by species loss alone, with the most imperiled regions found in East Asia and the Himalayan uplands and foothills. Only a small proportion of assemblages are threatened with phylogenetic homogenization, in particular parts of Indochina. Species extinctions will lead to a major loss of avian ecological strategies, but not a comparable loss of phylogenetic diversity. As the decline of species with unique traits and their replacement with more widespread generalist species continues, the protection of assemblages at most risk of morphological and phylogenetic homogenization should be a key conservation priority.

The effectiveness of a large protected area to conserve a global endemism hotspot may vanish in the face of climate and land-use changes

Endemic vertebrates are a crucial component of biodiversity, yet face disproportionally high extinction risk as climate and land-use changes drive habitat loss. Large protected areas are therefore deemed necessary to mitigate biodiversity loss. In 2021, China’s Giant Panda National Park (GPNP, 27,134 km2) was established in one of the global endemism hotspots. In this study we ask the question whether this large national park is able to conserve the many threatened endemic vertebrates occurring in the region in the face of climate and land-use changes, in order to assess the long-term effectiveness of the GPNP. We used species distribution modeling techniques to project the distributions of 40 threatened terrestrial (and freshwater) endemic vertebrates under land-use and climate change scenarios SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 in 2081–2100, and assessed the extent to which their distributions are covered by the GPNP, now and in the future. We found that by 2081–2100, two thirds of the threatened endemic vertebrates are predicted to lose part (15–79%, N = 4) of or (nearly) their entire (80–100% loss, N = 23) range under all three climate and land-use change scenarios. Consequently, fewer species are predicted to occur in the GPNP than at present. Our findings confirm the high vulnerability of threatened endemic species to climate and land-use changes, despite protected areas. Habitat loss due to climate and land-use changes elevate extinction risk of species in endemism hotspots across the globe. Urgent, widespread and intensified mitigation measures and adaptation measures are required at a landscape scale for effective conservation efforts in the future.

Factors related to species richness, endemism, and conservation status of the herpetofauna (Amphibia and Reptilia) of Mexican states

Mexico is a megadiverse country with high endemicity in its herpetofauna. We examine how species richness, proportion of state and country endemic species, and proportion of species in a category of conservation concern using listings in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List and the Secretaría del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) in 27 of 32 Mexican states are related to environmental and human demographic and socioeconomic variables. Amphibian and reptile species richness were positively related to latitude range and number of physiographic regions and negatively related to latitude. The proportion of state endemic amphibian species in a state was negatively related to latitude whereas no variables influenced the proportion in reptiles. The proportion of country endemics in a state was positively related to human population density and the number of physiographic regions and negatively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and latitude range for amphibians; it was positively related to human population density and elevation range and negatively related to latitude range for reptiles. The proportion of amphibian species in an IUCN category of concern in a state was positively related to human population density and negatively related to latitude; for reptiles, it was negatively related to human population density. The proportion of SEMARNAT-listed species in a state was positively related to human population density for both amphibians and reptiles and negatively related to latitude range for amphibians. Our analyses found that larger macroecological patterns (e.g., latitudinal species gradient, heterogeneity-richness relationships) and human population density play important roles in determining the richness and conservation status of Mexican amphibians and reptiles.

Biodiversity of vertebrates in Argentina: patterns of richness, endemism and conservation status

Optimising conservation efforts requires an accurate record of the extant species as well as their geographic distributions. Nevertheless, most current conservation strategies start from an incomplete biodiversity inventory. Argentina has an extraordinary diversity of species, however, until now an updated inventory of its fauna has not been carried out. In this context, the main objective of this work is to present the results of the first national inventory of vertebrate species. Experts from each major vertebrate taxonomic group assembled and compiled its respective inventory. The information gathered included taxonomic rank, conservation status, endemism and geographic distribution. Species richness and representativeness were calculated for each taxonomic group, distinguishing between native, endemic and exotic, for each Argentinian province. Our results show Argentina harbours 3,303 species: 574 marine fish, 561 freshwater fish, 177 amphibians, 450 reptiles, 1,113 birds, and 428 mammals. Native species constitute 98.1% of the total taxa. The results achieved were spatially represented showing a pattern of higher richness from north to south and from east to west. Species considered as threatened account for 17.8% and 15.2% are endemic. There are five Extinct species. These results provide key information on developing strategies and public policies at the national and provincial levels and constitute a tool for the management and conservation of biodiversity.