Insights from the first global population estimate of Weddell seals in Antarctica

Temporal and spatial equivalence in demographic responses of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) to environmental change

Population ecology and biogeography applications often necessitate the transfer of models across spatial and/or temporal dimensions to make predictions outside the bounds of the data used for model fitting. However, ecological data are often spatiotemporally unbalanced such that the spatial or the temporal dimension tends to contain more data than the other. This unbalance frequently leads model transfers to become substitutions, which are predictions to a different dimension than the predictive model was built on. Despite the prevalence of substitutions in ecology, studies validating their performance and their underlying assumptions are scarce. Here, we present a case study demonstrating both space-for-time and time-for-space substitutions (TFSS) using emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) as the focal species. Using an abundance-based species distribution model (aSDM) of adult emperor penguins in attendance during spring across 50 colonies, we predict long-term annual fluctuations in fledgling abundance and breeding success at a single colony, Pointe Géologie. Subsequently, we construct statistical models from time series of extended counts on Pointe Géologie to predict average colony abundance distribution across 50 colonies. Our analysis reveals that the distance to nearest open water (NOW) exhibits the strongest association with both temporal and spatial data. Space-for-time substitution performance of the aSDM, as measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient, was 0.63 and 0.56 when predicting breeding success and fledgling abundance time series, respectively. Linear regression of fledgling abundance on NOW yields similar TFSS performance when predicting the abundance distribution of emperor penguin colonies with a correlation coefficient of 0.58. We posit that such space-time equivalence arises because: (1) emperor penguin colonies conform to their existing fundamental niche; (2) there is not yet any environmental novelty when comparing the spatial versus temporal variation of distance to the nearest open water; and (3) models of more specific components of life histories, such as fledgling abundance, rather than total population abundance, are more transferable. Identifying these conditions empirically can enhance the qualitative validation of substitutions in cases where direct validation data are lacking.

Advances and shortfalls in knowledge of Antarctic terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

Antarctica harbors many distinctive features of life, yet much about the diversity and functioning of Antarctica's life remains unknown. Evolutionary histories and functional ecology are well understood only for vertebrates, whereas research on invertebrates is largely limited to species descriptions and some studies on environmental tolerances. Knowledge on Antarctic vegetation cover showcases the challenges of characterizing population trends for most groups. Recent community-level microbial studies have provided insights into the functioning of life at its limits. Overall, biotic interactions remain largely unknown across all groups, restricted to basic information on trophic level placement. Insufficient knowledge of many groups limits the understanding of ecological processes on the continent. Remedies for the current situation rely on identifying the caveats of each ecological discipline and finding targeted solutions. Such precise delimitation of knowledge gaps will enable a more aware, representative, and strategic systematic conservation planning of Antarctica.

Improving Ocean Management Using Insights from Space

Advancements in space-based ocean observation and computational data processing techniques have demonstrated transformative value for managing living resources, biodiversity, and ecosystems of the ocean. We synthesize advancements in leveraging satellite-derived insights to better understand and manage fishing, an emerging revolution of marine industrialization, ocean hazards, sea surface dynamics, benthic ecosystems, wildlife via electronic tracking, and direct observations of ocean megafauna. We consider how diverse space-based data sources can be better coupled to modernize and improve ocean management. We also highlight examples of how data from space can be developed into tools that can aid marine decision-makers managing subjects from whales to algae. Thoughtful and prospective engagement with such technologies from those inside and outside the marine remote sensing community is, however, essential to ensure that these tools meet their full potential to strengthen the effectiveness of ocean management.

Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) -26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was -1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = -3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Biogeographic survey of soil bacterial communities across Antarctica

BACKGROUND

Antarctica and its unique biodiversity are increasingly at risk from the effects of global climate change and other human influences. A significant recent element underpinning strategies for Antarctic conservation has been the development of a system of Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs). The datasets supporting this classification are, however, dominated by eukaryotic taxa, with contributions from the bacterial domain restricted to Actinomycetota and Cyanobacteriota. Nevertheless, the ice-free areas of the Antarctic continent and the sub-Antarctic islands are dominated in terms of diversity by bacteria. Our study aims to generate a comprehensive phylogenetic dataset of Antarctic bacteria with wide geographical coverage on the continent and sub-Antarctic islands, to investigate whether bacterial diversity and distribution is reflected in the current ACBRs.

RESULTS

Soil bacterial diversity and community composition did not fully conform with the ACBR classification. Although 19% of the variability was explained by this classification, the largest differences in bacterial community composition were between the broader continental and maritime Antarctic regions, where a degree of structural overlapping within continental and maritime bacterial communities was apparent, not fully reflecting the division into separate ACBRs. Strong divergence in soil bacterial community composition was also apparent between the Antarctic/sub-Antarctic islands and the Antarctic mainland. Bacterial communities were partially shaped by bioclimatic conditions, with 28% of dominant genera showing habitat preferences connected to at least one of the bioclimatic variables included in our analyses. These genera were also reported as indicator taxa for the ACBRs.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our data indicate that the current ACBR subdivision of the Antarctic continent does not fully reflect bacterial distribution and diversity in Antarctica. We observed considerable overlap in the structure of soil bacterial communities within the maritime Antarctic region and within the continental Antarctic region. Our results also suggest that bacterial communities might be impacted by regional climatic and other environmental changes. The dataset developed in this study provides a comprehensive baseline that will provide a valuable tool for biodiversity conservation efforts on the continent. Further studies are clearly required, and we emphasize the need for more extensive campaigns to systematically sample and characterize Antarctic and sub-Antarctic soil microbial communities. Video Abstract.

Ninety years of change, from commercial extinction to recovery, range expansion and decline for Antarctic fur seals at South Georgia

With environmental change, understanding how species recover from overharvesting and maintain viable populations is central to ecosystem restoration. Here, we reconstruct 90 years of recovery trajectory of the Antarctic fur seal at South Georgia (S.W. Atlantic), a key indicator species in the krill-based food webs of the Southern Ocean. After being harvested to commercial extinction by 1907, this population rebounded and now constitutes the most abundant otariid in the World. However, its status remains uncertain due to insufficient and conflicting data, and anthropogenic pressures affecting Antarctic krill, an essential staple for millions of fur seals and other predators. Using integrated population models, we estimated simultaneously the long-term abundance for Bird Island, northwest South Georgia, epicentre of recovery of the species after sealing, and population adjustments for survey counts with spatiotemporal applicability. Applied to the latest comprehensive survey data, we estimated the population at South Georgia in 2007-2009 as 3,510,283 fur seals [95% CI: 3,140,548-3,919,604] (ca. 98% of global population), after 40 years of maximum growth and range expansion owing to an abundant krill supply. At Bird Island, after 50 years of exponential growth followed by 25 years of slow stable growth, the population collapsed in 2009 and has thereafter declined by -7.2% [-5.2, -9.1] per annum, to levels of the 1970s. For the instrumental record, this trajectory correlates with a time-varying relationship between coupled climate and sea surface temperature cycles associated with low regional krill availability, although the effects of increasing krill extraction by commercial fishing and natural competitors remain uncertain. Since 2015, fur seal longevity and recruitment have dropped, sexual maturation has retarded, and population growth is expected to remain mostly negative and highly variable. Our analysis documents the rise and fall of a key Southern Ocean predator over a century of profound environmental and ecosystem change.

Where to live? Landfast sea ice shapes emperor penguin habitat around Antarctica

Predicting species survival in the face of climate change requires understanding the drivers that influence their distribution. Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) incubate and rear chicks on landfast sea ice, whose extent, dynamics, and quality are expected to vary substantially due to climate change. Until recently, this species' continent-wide observations were scarce, and knowledge on their distribution and habitat limited. Advances in satellite imagery now allow their observation and characterization of habitats across Antarctica at high resolution. Using circumpolar high-resolution satellite images, unique fast ice metrics, and geographic and biological factors, we identified diverse penguin habitats across the continent, with no significant difference between areas with penguins or not. There is a clear geographic partitioning of colonies with respect to their defining habitat characteristics, indicating possible behavioral plasticity among different metapopulations. This coincides with geographic structures found in previous genetic studies. Given projections of quasi-extinction for this species in 2100, this study provides essential information for conservation measures.

Genetic diversity and demographic history of the leopard seal: A Southern Ocean top predator

Leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) are top predators that can exert substantial top-down control of their Antarctic prey species. However, population trends and genetic diversity of leopard seals remain understudied, limiting our understanding of their ecological role. We investigated the genetic diversity, effective population size and demographic history of leopard seals to provide fundamental data that contextualizes their predatory influence on Antarctic ecosystems. Ninety leopard seals were sampled from the northern Antarctic Peninsula during the austral summers of 2008-2019 and a 405bp segment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced for each individual. We uncovered moderate levels of nucleotide (π = 0.013) and haplotype (Hd = 0.96) diversity, and the effective population size was estimated at around 24,000 individuals (NE = 24,376; 95% CI: 16,876-33,126). Consistent with findings from other ice-breeding pinnipeds, Bayesian skyline analysis also revealed evidence for population expansion during the last glacial maximum, suggesting that historical population growth may have been boosted by an increase in the abundance of sea ice. Although leopard seals can be found in warmer, sub-Antarctic locations, the species' core habitat is centered on the Antarctic, making it inherently vulnerable to the loss of sea ice habitat due to climate change. Therefore, detailed assessments of past and present leopard seal population trends are needed to inform policies for Antarctic ecosystems.

Deep learning enables satellite-based monitoring of large populations of terrestrial mammals across heterogeneous landscape

New satellite remote sensing and machine learning techniques offer untapped possibilities to monitor global biodiversity with unprecedented speed and precision. These efficiencies promise to reveal novel ecological insights at spatial scales which are germane to the management of populations and entire ecosystems. Here, we present a robust transferable deep learning pipeline to automatically locate and count large herds of migratory ungulates (wildebeest and zebra) in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem using fine-resolution (38-50 cm) satellite imagery. The results achieve accurate detection of nearly 500,000 individuals across thousands of square kilometers and multiple habitat types, with an overall F1-score of 84.75% (Precision: 87.85%, Recall: 81.86%). This research demonstrates the capability of satellite remote sensing and machine learning techniques to automatically and accurately count very large populations of terrestrial mammals across a highly heterogeneous landscape. We also discuss the potential for satellite-derived species detections to advance basic understanding of animal behavior and ecology.

Patterns, sources, and consequences of variation in age-specific vital rates: Insights from a long-term study of Weddell seals

Variations in the reproductive and survival abilities of individuals within a population are ubiquitous in nature, key to individual fitness, and affect population dynamics, which leads to strong interest in understanding causes and consequences of vital-rate variation. For long-lived species, long-term studies of large samples of known-age individuals are ideal for evaluating vital-rate variation. A population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, has been studied each Austral spring since the 1960s. Since 1982, all newborns have been tagged each year and multiple capture-mark-recapture (CMR) surveys have been conducted annually. Over the past 20 years, a series of analyses have built on results of earlier research by taking advantage of steady improvements in the project's long-term CMR data and available analytical methods. Here, I summarize progress made on four major topics related to variation in age-specific vital rates for females: early-life survival and age at first reproduction, costs of reproduction, demographic buffering, and demographic senescence. Multistate modelling found that age at first reproduction varies widely (4-14 years of age) and identified contrasting influences of maternal age on survival and recruitment rates of offspring. Subsequent analyses of data for females after recruitment revealed costs of reproduction to both survival and future reproduction and provided strong evidence of demographic buffering. Recent results indicated that important levels of among-individual variation exist in vital rates and revealed contrasting patterns for senescence in reproduction and survival. Sources of variation in vital rates include age, reproductive state, year, and individual. The combination of luck and individual quality results in strong variation in individual fitness outcomes: ~80% of females born in the population produce no offspring, and the remaining 20% vary strongly in lifetime reproductive output (range: 1-23 pups). Further research is needed to identify the specific environmental conditions that lead to annual variation in vital rates and to better understand the origins of individual heterogeneity. Work is also needed to better quantify the relative roles of luck, maternal effects, and environmental conditions on variation in vital rates and to learn the importance of such variation to demographic performance of offspring and on overall population dynamics.

Seasonal habitat preference and foraging behaviour of post-moult Weddell seals in the western Ross Sea

Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) are important predators in the Southern Ocean and are among the best-studied pinnipeds on Earth, yet much still needs to be learned about their year-round movements and foraging behaviour. Using biologgers, we tagged 62 post-moult Weddell seals in McMurdo Sound and vicinity between 2010 and 2012. Generalized additive mixed models were used to (i) explain and predict the probability of seal presence and foraging behaviour from eight environmental variables, and (ii) examine foraging behaviour in relation to dive metrics. Foraging probability was highest in winter and lowest in summer, and foraging occurred mostly in the water column or just above the bottom; across all seasons, seals preferentially exploited the shallow banks and deeper troughs of the Ross Sea, the latter providing a pathway for Circumpolar Deep Water to flow onto the shelf. In addition, the probability of Weddell seal occurrence and foraging increased with increasing bathymetric slope and where water depth was typically less than 600 m. Although the probability of occurrence was higher closer to the shelf break, foraging was higher in areas closer to shore and over banks. This study highlights the importance of overwinter foraging for recouping body mass lost during the previous summer.

Forecasting the future of life in Antarctica

Antarctic ecosystems are under increasing anthropogenic pressure, but efforts to predict the responses of Antarctic biodiversity to environmental change are hindered by considerable data challenges. Here, we illustrate how novel data capture technologies provide exciting opportunities to sample Antarctic biodiversity at wider spatiotemporal scales. Data integration frameworks, such as point process and hierarchical models, can mitigate weaknesses in individual data sets, improving confidence in their predictions. Increasing process knowledge in models is imperative to achieving improved forecasts of Antarctic biodiversity, which can be attained for data-limited species using hybrid modelling frameworks. Leveraging these state-of-the-art tools will help to overcome many of the data scarcity challenges presented by the remoteness of Antarctica, enabling more robust forecasts both near- and long-term.

Using a combination of midazolam and butorphanol is a safe and effective reversible field sedation protocol for Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) pups

BACKGROUND

Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) are a well-studied species of phocid with an apparent sensitivity to immobilising agents. Mortality as high as 31% has been reported during field immobilisation. This study investigated the use of a benzodiazepine in combination with an opioid agonist/antagonist for sedation in Weddell seal pups as part of a physiological study.

METHODS

During the 2017 and 2019 Antarctic pupping seasons, 18 Weddell seal pups were sedated by intramuscular administration of a combination of midazolam and butorphanol or intravenous midazolam alone. Individuals were sedated at 1, 3, 5 and 7 weeks of age. Naltrexone and flumazenil were used to reverse sedation. The combination was 100% effective in providing appropriate sedation for the intended procedures.

RESULTS

Analyses were performed to investigate relationships between dose administered, age, individual reactions, adverse effects and changes in dive physiology. Transient apnoea (10-60 seconds) was the most frequently observed adverse effect. No sedation-associated morbidity or mortality occurred.

LIMITATIONS

The sample size is small and there is no pharmacokinetic information for either sedative or reversal in phocid species.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of midazolam (0.2-0.3 mg/kg) and butorphanol (0.1-0.2 mg/kg) provided safe and effective sedation, with reversible effects, in Weddell seal pups.

Remote sensing techniques for automated marine mammals detection: a review of methods and current challenges

Marine mammals are under pressure from multiple threats, such as global climate change, bycatch, and vessel collisions. In this context, more frequent and spatially extensive surveys for abundance and distribution studies are necessary to inform conservation efforts. Marine mammal surveys have been performed visually from land, ships, and aircraft. These methods can be costly, logistically challenging in remote locations, dangerous to researchers, and disturbing to the animals. The growing use of imagery from satellite and unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) can help address some of these challenges, complementing crewed surveys and allowing for more frequent and evenly distributed surveys, especially for remote locations. However, manual counts in satellite and UAS imagery remain time and labor intensive, but the automation of image analyses offers promising solutions. Here, we reviewed the literature for automated methods applied to detect marine mammals in satellite and UAS imagery. The performance of studies is quantitatively compared with metrics that evaluate false positives and false negatives from automated detection against manual counts of animals, which allows for a better assessment of the impact of miscounts in conservation contexts. In general, methods that relied solely on statistical differences in the spectral responses of animals and their surroundings performed worse than studies that used convolutional neural networks (CNN). Despite mixed results, CNN showed promise, and its use and evaluation should continue. Overall, while automation can reduce time and labor, more research is needed to improve the accuracy of automated counts. With the current state of knowledge, it is best to use semi-automated approaches that involve user revision of the output. These approaches currently enable the best tradeoff between time effort and detection accuracy. Based on our analysis, we identified thermal infrared UAS imagery as a future research avenue for marine mammal detection and also recommend the further exploration of object-based image analysis (OBIA). Our analysis also showed that past studies have focused on the automated detection of baleen whales and pinnipeds and that there is a gap in studies looking at toothed whales, polar bears, sirenians, and mustelids.

Circoviruses and cycloviruses identified in Weddell seal fecal samples from McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

Circoviridae is a family of circular single-stranded DNA viruses whose members infect a wide variety of hosts. While well characterized in avian and mammalian hosts, little is known about circoviruses associated with Antarctic animals. From 48 Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) fecal samples collected on the sea ice in McMurdo between Nov 2014 and Dec 2014, we identified and determined the genomes of novel viruses that fall within two genera of the family Circoviridae, i.e. Circovirus (n = 7) and Cyclovirus (n = 45). We named these viruses as werosea circovirus (WerCV) and werosea cyclovirus (WerCyV). The genomes of WerCV and WerCyV share ~63-64% genome-wide pairwise identity with classified circoviruses and cycloviruses, respectively. Based on the species demarcation threshold of 80% for members of the Circoviridae, the genomes of WerCV and WerCyV represent new species in their respective genera. Evidence indicated recombination in five of the 45 WerCyV genomes identified in this study. These are the first circoviruses found associated with Antarctic pinnipeds, adding to those recently identified associated with Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and chinstrap penguins (P. antarcticus).