The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics

The rising global economic costs of invasive Aedes mosquitoes and Aedes-borne diseases

Invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes transmit viruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika, posing a huge public health burden as well as having a less well understood economic impact. We present a comprehensive, global-scale synthesis of studies reporting these economic costs, spanning 166 countries and territories over 45 years. The minimum cumulative reported cost estimate expressed in 2022 US$ was 94.7 billion, although this figure reflects considerable underreporting and underestimation. The analysis suggests a 14-fold increase in costs, with an average annual expenditure of US$ 3.1 billion, and a maximum of US$ 20.3 billion in 2013. Damage and losses were an order of magnitude higher than investment in management, with only a modest portion allocated to prevention. Effective control measures are urgently needed to safeguard global health and well-being, and to reduce the economic burden on human societies. This study fills a critical gap by addressing the increasing economic costs of Aedes and Aedes-borne diseases and offers insights to inform evidence-based policy.

Leveraging wastewater surveillance to detect viral diseases in livestock settings

Wastewater surveillance has evolved into a powerful tool for monitoring public health-relevant analytes. Recent applications in tracking severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection highlight its potential. Beyond humans, it can be extended to livestock settings where there is increasing demand for livestock products, posing risks of disease emergence. Wastewater surveillance may offer non-invasive, cost-effective means to detect potential outbreaks among animals. This approach aligns with the "One Health" paradigm, emphasizing the interconnectedness of animal, human, and ecosystem health. By monitoring viruses in livestock wastewater, early detection, prevention, and control strategies can be employed, safeguarding both animal and human health, economic stability, and international trade. This integrated "One Health" approach enhances collaboration and a comprehensive understanding of disease dynamics, supporting proactive measures in the Anthropocene era where animal and human diseases are on the rise.

Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches. Here, we predict the spatial distribution of spillover risk by approximating general transmission through animal and human interactions. These mass action interactions are approximated through the multiplication of the spatial distribution of zoonotic virus diversity and human population density. Although our results indicate higher risk in regions along the equator and in Southeast Asia where both virus diversity and human population density are high, it should be noted that this is primarily a conceptual exercise. We compared our spillover risk map to key factors, including the model inputs of zoonotic virus diversity estimate map, human population density map, and the spatial distribution of species richness. Despite the limitations of this approach, this viral spillover map is a step towards developing a more comprehensive spillover risk prediction system to inform global monitoring.

Current evidence of the economic value of One Health initiatives: A systematic literature review

Funding and financing for One Health initiatives at country level remain challenging as investments commonly require demonstrated evidence of economic value or returns. The objectives of this review were to i) identify, critically analyse and summarise quantitative evidence of the net economic value of One Health initiatives; ii) document methodologies commonly used in the scientific literature; and iii) describe common challenges and any evidence gaps. Scientific databases were searched for published literature following the PRISMA guidelines and an online survey and workshop with subject matter experts were used to identify relevant grey literature. Studies were included if they reported on quantitative costs and benefits (monetary and non-monetary) and were measured across at least two sectors. Relevant publications were analysed and plotted against the six action tracks of the Quadripartite One Health Joint Plan of Action to help classify the initiatives. Ninety-seven studies were included. Eighty studies involved only two sectors and 78 reported a positive economic value or return. Of those studies that reported a positive return, 49 did not compare with a sectoral counterfactual, 28 studies demonstrated an added value of using a cross-sectoral approach, and 6 studies demonstrated an added value of One Health communication, collaboration, coordination, and capacity building. Included studies most frequently related to endemic zoonotic, neglected tropical and vector-borne diseases, followed by health of the environment and food safety. However, diversity in economic analysis methodology between studies included resulted in difficulty to compare or combine findings. While there is a growing body of evidence of the value of One Health initiatives, a substantial part of the evidence still focuses on "traditional" One Health topics, particularly zoonoses. Developing a standardised and practical approach for One Health economic evaluation will facilitate assessment of the added value and gather evidence for One Health to be invested in and endorsed by multiple sectors.

Uncovering associations between interest in One Health and pre-existing conditions and behaviours: Evidence from a UK survey

This paper endeavours to unveil individual characteristics associated with an interest in One Health. Through the distribution of an online survey randomly distributed among the United Kingdom population, we discovered significant correlations between pre-existing attitudes towards and relationships with nature and animals and interest in One Health, which is quantified by the number of additional pages of One Health information participants agreed to view at the survey's conclusion. Additionally, individuals with poorer mental health demonstrated a higher level of interest in One Health. The findings suggest that interest in One Health and people's connections with nature and animals are driven by the same personal preferences. These insights point towards the potential for more targeted communication strategies to specific groups, facilitating more effective promotion of the One Health concept.

Zoonotic spillover and viral mutations from low and middle-income countries: improving prevention strategies and bridging policy gaps

The increasing frequency of zoonotic spillover events and viral mutations in low and middle-income countries presents a critical global health challenge. Contributing factors encompass cultural practices like bushmeat consumption, wildlife trade for traditional medicine, habitat disruption, and the encroachment of impoverished settlements onto natural habitats. The existing "vaccine gap" in many developing countries exacerbates the situation by allowing unchecked viral replication and the emergence of novel mutant viruses. Despite global health policies addressing the root causes of zoonotic disease emergence, there is a significant absence of concrete prevention-oriented initiatives, posing a potential risk to vulnerable populations. This article is targeted at policymakers, public health professionals, researchers, and global health stakeholders, particularly those engaged in zoonotic disease prevention and control in low and middle-income countries. The article underscores the importance of assessing potential zoonotic diseases at the animal-human interface and comprehending historical factors contributing to spillover events. To bridge policy gaps, comprehensive strategies are proposed that include education, collaborations, specialized task forces, environmental sampling, and the establishment of integrated diagnostic laboratories. These strategies advocate simplicity and unity, breaking down barriers, and placing humanity at the forefront of addressing global health challenges. Such a strategic and mental shift is crucial for constructing a more resilient and equitable world in the face of emerging zoonotic threats.

Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern

The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established.

Selective deforestation and exposure of African wildlife to bat-borne viruses

Proposed mechanisms of zoonotic virus spillover often posit that wildlife transmission and amplification precede human outbreaks. Between 2006 and 2012, the palm Raphia farinifera, a rich source of dietary minerals for wildlife, was nearly extirpated from Budongo Forest, Uganda. Since then, chimpanzees, black-and-white colobus, and red duiker were observed feeding on bat guano, a behavior not previously observed. Here we show that guano consumption may be a response to dietary mineral scarcity and may expose wildlife to bat-borne viruses. Videos from 2017-2019 recorded 839 instances of guano consumption by the aforementioned species. Nutritional analysis of the guano revealed high concentrations of sodium, potassium, magnesium and phosphorus. Metagenomic analyses of the guano identified 27 eukaryotic viruses, including a novel betacoronavirus. Our findings illustrate how "upstream" drivers such as socioeconomics and resource extraction can initiate elaborate chains of causation, ultimately increasing virus spillover risk.

Financial impacts of a housing order on commercial free range egg layers in response to highly pathogenic avian influenza

Recent annual outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have led to mandatory housing orders on commercial free-range flocks. Indefinite periods of housing, after poultry have had access to range, could have production and financial consequences for free range egg producers. The impact of these housing orders on the performance of commercial flocks is seldom explored at a business level, predominantly due to the paucity of commercially sensitive data. The aim of this paper is to assess the financial and production impacts of a housing order on commercial free-range egg layers. We use a unique data set showing week by week performance of layers gathered from 9 UK based farms over the period 2020-2022. These data cover an average of 100,000 laying hens and include two imposed housing orders, in 2020/2021 and in 2021/22. We applied a random intercept linear regression to assess impacts on physical outputs and inputs, bird mortality and the impacts on revenue, feed costs and margin over feed cost. Feed use and feed costs per bird increased during the housing order which is a consequence of increased control over diet intake in housed compared to ranged birds. An increase in revenue was also found, ostensibly due to a higher proportion of large eggs produced, leading to a higher margin over feed cost. Overall, these large commercial poultry sheds were able to mitigate some of the potential adverse economic effects of housing orders. Potential negative impacts may occur dependant on the duration of the housing order and those farms with less control over their input costs.

Facing SARS-CoV-2 emergence on the animal health perspective: The role of the World Organisation for Animal Health in preparedness and official reporting of disease occurrence

AIMS

Current data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) emerged from an animal source. However, to date, there is insufficient scientific evidence to identify the source of SARS-CoV-2 or to explain the original route of transmission to humans. A wide range of mammalian species have been shown to be susceptible to the virus through experimental infection, and in natural environments when in contact with infected humans. The main objective of this work was to provide a summary of the official data shared by countries on SARS-CoV-2 in animals with the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), to highlight the role of WOAH as an international organization in coordinating scientific information actions and to discuss the implications and impact of these activities.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between January 2020 and December 2022, 36 countries in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa officially reported SARS-CoV-2 identification in 26 animal species. Affected countries were generally responsive in confirming the pathogen (median of 5 days after onset) and reporting to WOAH (median of 7 days after confirmation).

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, WOAH, supported by its network of experts, played a crucial role in collecting, analysing and disseminating veterinary scientific information, acting as the reference organization on these issues, thus avoiding misinformation and disinformation. Future perspectives to avoid new emerging threats are discussed.

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

Merging socioecological variables to predict risk of Chagas disease

How far are we from predicting the occurrence of zoonotic diseases? In this paper we have made use of both socioecological and ecological variables to predict Chagas disease occurrence. Chagas disease involves, Trypanosoma cruzi, a complex life-cycle parasite which requires two hosts: blood-feeding triatomine insects and vertebrate hosts including humans. We have used a common risk assessment method combined with datasets that imply critical environmental and socioeconomic drivers of Chagas dynamics to predict the occurrence of this disease. We also carried out a network analysis to assess the interactions among triatomines and mammal host species given their human contact via whether hunted, domesticated or associated with anthropogenic landscapes in Mexico. We found that social backwardness variation, lack of health services and altitude had the largest relative influence Chagas events. Triatoma pallidipennis made use of the largest host diversity. Host species shared by the highest number of different triatomines were a woodrat, the highly appreciated bushmeat, and racoon. These results indicate both the predominance of socio-economic factors over ecological ones, and how close we are from predicting zoonotic diseases.

Optimal environmental testing frequency for outbreak surveillance

Public health surveillance for pathogens presents an optimization problem: we require enough sampling to identify intervention-triggering shifts in pathogen epidemiology, such as new introductions or sudden increases in prevalence, but not so much that costs due to surveillance itself outweigh those from pathogen-associated illness. To determine this optimal sampling frequency, we developed a general mathematical model for the introduction of a new pathogen that, once introduced, increases in prevalence exponentially. Given the relative cost of infection vs. sampling, we derived equations for the expected combined cost per unit time of disease burden and surveillance for a specified sampling frequency, and thus the sampling frequency for which the expected total cost per unit time is lowest.

Emergence of Oropouche fever in Latin America: a narrative review

Since its discovery in 1955, the incidence and geographical spread of reported Oropouche virus (OROV) infections have increased. Oropouche fever has been suggested to be one of the most important vector-borne diseases in Latin America. However, both literature on OROV and genomic sequence availability are scarce, with few contributing laboratories worldwide. Three reassortant OROV glycoprotein gene variants termed Iquitos, Madre de Dios, and Perdões virus have been described from humans and non-human primates. OROV predominantly causes acute febrile illness, but severe neurological disease such as meningoencephalitis can occur. Due to unspecific symptoms, laboratory diagnostics are crucial. Several laboratory tests have been developed but robust commercial tests are hardly available. Although OROV is mainly transmitted by biting midges, it has also been detected in several mosquito species and a wide range of vertebrate hosts, which likely facilitates its widespread emergence. However, potential non-human vertebrate reservoirs have not been systematically studied. Robust animal models to investigate pathogenesis and immune responses are not available. Epidemiology, pathogenesis, transmission cycle, cross-protection from infections with OROV reassortants, and the natural history of infection remain unclear. This Review identifies Oropouche fever as a neglected disease and offers recommendations to address existing knowledge gaps, enable risk assessments, and ensure effective public health responses.

Temporal Dynamics, Discovery, and Emergence of Human-Transmissible RNA Viruses

Transmissibility, the ability to spread within host populations, is a prerequisite for a pathogen to have epidemic or pandemic potential. Here, we estimate the phylogenies of human infectivity and transmissibility using 1,408 genome sequences from 743 distinct RNA virus species/types in 59 genera. By repeating this analysis using data sets censored by virus discovery date, we explore how temporal changes in the known diversity of RNA viruses-especially recent increases in recognized nonhuman viruses-have altered these phylogenies. Over time, we find significant increases in the proportion of RNA virus genera estimated to have a nonhuman-infective ancestral state, in the fraction of distinct human virus lineages that are purely human-transmissible or strictly zoonotic (compared to mixed lineages), and in the number of human viruses with nearest relatives known not to infect humans. Our results are consistent with viruses that are capable of spreading in human populations commonly emerging from a nonhuman reservoir. This is more likely in lineages that already contain human-transmissible viruses but is rare in lineages that contain only strictly zoonotic viruses.

Cross-Reactivity of Human, Wild Boar, and Farm Animal Sera from Pre- and Post-Pandemic Periods with Alpha- and Βeta-Coronaviruses (CoV), including SARS-CoV-2

Panels of pre- and post-pandemic farm animals, wild boar and human sera, including human sera able to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 in vitro, were tested in serological tests to determine their cross-reactivity with β- and α-CoV originating from farm animals. Sera were tested in neutralization assays with high ascending concentrations (up to 1 × 104 TCID50 units/well) of β-CoV Bovine coronavirus (BCV), SARS-CoV-2, and porcine α-CoV-transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV). In addition, sera were tested for immunostaining of cells infected with β-CoV porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis (PHEV). Testing revealed a significantly higher percentage of BCV neutralization (78%) for sera of humans that had experienced a SARS-CoV-2 infection (SARS-CoV-2 convalescent sera) than was observed for human pre-pandemic sera (37%). Also, 46% of these human SARS-CoV-2 convalescent sera neutralized the highest concentration of BCV (5 × 103 TCID50/well) tested, whereas only 9.6% of the pre-pandemic sera did. Largely similar percentages were observed for staining of PHEV-infected cells by these panels of human sera. Furthermore, post-pandemic sera collected from wild boars living near a densely populated area in The Netherlands also showed a higher percentage (43%) and stronger BCV neutralization than was observed for pre-pandemic sera from this area (21%) and for pre- (28%) and post-pandemic (20%) sera collected from wild boars living in a nature reserve park with limited access for the public. High percentages of BCV neutralization were observed for pre- and post-pandemic sera of cows (100%), pigs (up to 45%), sheep (36%) and rabbits (60%). However, this cross-neutralization was restricted to sera collected from specific herds or farms. TGEV was neutralized only by sera of pigs (68%) and a few wild boar sera (4.6%). None of the BCV and PHEV cross-reacting human pre-pandemic, wild boar and farm animal sera effectively neutralized SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. Preexisting antibodies in human sera effectively neutralized the animal β-CoV BCV in vitro. This cross-neutralization was boosted after humans had experienced a SARS-CoV-2 infection, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 activated a "memory" antibody response against structurally related epitopes expressed on the surface of a broad range of heterologous CoV, including β-CoV isolated from farm animals. Further research is needed to elucidate if a symptomless infection or environmental exposure to SARS-CoV-2 or another β-CoV also triggers such a "memory" antibody response in wild boars and other free-living animals.

Geo-temporal patterns to design cost-effective interventions for zoonotic diseases -the case of brucellosis in the country of Georgia

Introduction

Control of zoonosis can benefit from geo-referenced procedures. Focusing on brucellosis, here the ability of two methods to distinguish disease dissemination patterns and promote cost-effective interventions was compared.

Method

Geographical data on bovine, ovine and human brucellosis reported in the country of Georgia between 2014 and 2019 were investigated with (i) the Hot Spot (HS) analysis and (ii) a bio-geographical (BG) alternative.

Results

More than one fourth of all sites reported cases affecting two or more species. While ruminant cases displayed different patterns over time, most human cases described similar geo-temporal features, which were associated with the route used by migrant shepherds. Other human cases showed heterogeneous patterns. The BG approach identified small areas with a case density twice as high as the HS method. The BG method also identified, in 2018, a 2.6-2.99 higher case density in zoonotic (human and non-human) sites than in non-zoonotic sites (which only reported cases affecting a single species) -a finding that, if corroborated, could support cost-effective policy-making.

Discussion

Three dissemination hypotheses were supported by the data: (i) human cases induced by sheep-related contacts; (ii) human cases probably mediated by contaminated milk or meat; and (iii) cattle and sheep that infected one another. This proof-of-concept provided a preliminary validation for a method that may support cost-effective interventions oriented to control zoonoses. To expand these findings, additional studies on zoonosis-related decision-making are recommended.

Financial influence on global risks of zoonotic emerging and re-emerging diseases: an integrative analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), such as Ebola virus disease and highly pathogenic influenza, are serious threats to human health and wellbeing worldwide. The financial sector has an important, yet often ignored, influence as owners and investors in industries that are associated with anthropogenic land-use changes in ecosystems linked to increased EIDs risks. We aimed to analyse financial influence associated with EIDs risks that are affected by anthropogenic land-use changes. We also aimed to provide empirical assessments of such influence to help guide engagements by governments, private organisations, and non-governmental organisations with the financial sector to advance a planetary health agenda.

METHODS

For this integrative analysis, we identified regions in the world where there was evidence of a connection between EIDs and anthropogenic land-use changes between Nov 9, 1999, and Oct 25, 2021, through a targeted literature review of academic literature and grey literature to identify evidence of drivers of anthropogenic land-use change and their association with commodity production in these regions. We only included publications in English that showed a connection between deforestation and the production of one or more commodities. Publications merely describing spatial or temporal land-use change dynamics (eg, a reduction of forest or an increase of palm-oil plantations) were excluded. As we were assessing financial influence on corporate activities through ownership specifically, we focused our analysis on publicly listed companies. Equity data and data about ownership structure were extracted from Orbis, a company information database. We assessed financial influence by identifying financial entities with the largest equity ownership, descriptively mapping transboundary connections between investors and publicly listed companies.

FINDINGS

227 public and private companies operating in five economic sectors (ie, production of palm oil, pulp and wood products, cocoa, soybeans, and beef) between Dec 15, 2020, and March 8, 2021, were identified. Of these 227, 99 (44%) were publicly listed companies, with 2310 unique shareholders. These publicly listed companies operated in six geographical regions, resulting in nine case-study regions. 54 (55%) companies with complete geographical information were included in the countries network. Four financial entities (ie, Dimensional, Vanguard, BlackRock, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund) each had ownership in 39 companies or more in three of the case-study regions (ie, north America, east Asia, and Europe). Four large US-based asset managers (ie, Vanguard, BlackRock, T Rowe Price, and State Street) were the largest owners of publicly listed companies in terms of total equity size, with ownership amounts for these four entities ranging from US$8 billion to $21 billion. The specific patterns of cross-national ownership depended on the region of interest; for example, financial influence on EIDs risks that was associated with commodity production in southeast and east Asia came from not only global asset managers but also Malaysian, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean financial entities. India, Brazil, the USA, Mexico, and Argentina were the countries towards which investments were most directed.

INTERPRETATION

Although commodity supply chains and financial markets are highly globalised, a small number of investors and countries could be viewed as disproportionally influential in sectors that increase EIDs risks. Such financial influence could be used to develop and implement effective policies to reduce ecological degradation and mitigate EIDs risks and their effects on population health.

FUNDING

Formas and Networks of Financial Rupture-how cascading changes in the climate and ecosystems could impact on the financial sector.

Evaluating event-based surveillance capacity in Africa: Use of the Africa CDC scorecard, 2022-2023

Introduction

Event-based surveillance (EBS) is a critical component of Early Warning, Alert and Response (EWAR) capacity needed for outbreak prevention and control. To better understand existing EBS and monitor the progress of capacity-building efforts over time, Africa CDC developed an EBS scorecard as part of a revision to the EBS Framework.

Methods

We distributed the scorecard to African Union (AU) Member States (MSs). Survey responses from the MSs' human health sector were aggregated, cleaned, and analysed. MS, regional, and continental EBS capacity was assessed.

Results

Between 21 July 2022 and 4 April 2023, a total of 63 respondents representing 49 (89%) of 55 MSs completed the survey. Given Africa CDC's public health mandate, we acknowledged the importance of One Health collaboration in MSs but focused on and analysed only the human health sector responses. Thirty-four (71%) MSs stated having EBS in place; hotline was the most common type of EBS implemented (76%). Seventeen (50%) MSs reported multisectoral, One Health collaboration as part of EBS implementation. Scorecard outcomes showed a minimal (score of <60%) to average (score between 60-80%) level of EBS capacity in 29 and five (5) MSs respectively.

Discussion

Current EBS capacity levels need to be strengthened in Africa to ensure the continent remains prepared for future public health threats. The Africa CDC EBS scorecard provides a useful way to measure and track this capacity over time. Results can be used to advocate for and target resources for capacity building to foster public health emergency preparedness efforts.

One Health approach and zoonotic diseases in Indonesia: Urgency of implementation and challenges

The urgency of implementing the One Health approach to overcome zoonotic diseases cannot be overstated. By recognizing the interconnectedness of human health, animal health, and the environment, we can effectively prevent and respond to emerging infectious disease threats. This review article provides information on the importance of generating research on zoonotic diseases, especially in Indonesia, where research is still relatively scarce. The Indonesian government has taken steps to implement the One Health by establishing the One Health Coordinating Unit and the National Zoonosis Committee; however, implementation has not been optimal. The urgency and challenges are focused on critical implementation aspects in the community. The urgency of implementing One Health includes that Indonesia has experienced several outbreaks of zoonotic diseases; high environmental degradation; and the antimicrobial resistance issue in Indonesia has increased. The challenges faced in implementing One Health are overcoming fragmentation due to incohesive communication between important sectors, securing funding and resource investment, aligning policies to eliminate regulation barriers, capacity building to increase awareness and professionals, and addressing critical socioeconomic factors. By prioritizing implementing the One Health approach and addressing existing challenges, Indonesia can build a more resilient and integrated system to protect the well-being of all species, protect ecosystems, and prevent the devastating effects of zoonotic diseases on global health. In this review, we present the urgency of One Health implementation and its challenges comprehensively.

Developing One Health surveillance systems

The health of humans, domestic and wild animals, plants, and the environment are inter-dependent. Global anthropogenic change is a key driver of disease emergence and spread and leads to biodiversity loss and ecosystem function degradation, which are themselves drivers of disease emergence. Pathogen spill-over events and subsequent disease outbreaks, including pandemics, in humans, animals and plants may arise when factors driving disease emergence and spread converge. One Health is an integrated approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimize human, animal and ecosystem health. Conventional disease surveillance has been siloed by sectors, with separate systems addressing the health of humans, domestic animals, cultivated plants, wildlife and the environment. One Health surveillance should include integrated surveillance for known and unknown pathogens, but combined with this more traditional disease-based surveillance, it also must include surveillance of drivers of disease emergence to improve prevention and mitigation of spill-over events. Here, we outline such an approach, including the characteristics and components required to overcome barriers and to optimize an integrated One Health surveillance system.

Organising for One Health in a developing country

Globally, zoonotic diseases pose an enormous and growing public health challenge, and developing countries like India are at the epicentre of it. Although there is general recognition of this reality, governments around the world have struggled to organise appropriately to respond to it. The widely held view is that organising for One Health requires effective cross-sectoral collaboration, but the prerequisites to enable such collaboration appear almost unattainable. Perhaps an entirely different approach is needed, which is over and above effective collaborations between competing government ministries. The approach would have to recognise that while any organisational response will need to be able to address identified zoonotic diseases and respond effectively to them in times of crises, it would also be required to have the ability to shape the response to megatrends such as climate change, deforestation, and the underlying development models of the country. The paper analyses the success and failures associated with the way in which India, Bangladesh, Kenya, and Rwanda have organised for One Health. It also studies the underlying pathways through which zoonotic spillovers take place, and epidemics gather momentum. Based on these critical analyses, the paper concludes that attempts to build single overarching units to address these challenges have only been partially effective. Given the scale and complexity of the challenge, it recommends that, even at the risk of duplication and the very real possibility that unaddressed gaps will remain, an approach, which builds multiple sharply focused units, would have a greater chance of success.

Predicting the fine-scale spatial distribution of zoonotic reservoirs using computer vision

Zoonotic diseases threaten human health worldwide and are often associated with anthropogenic disturbance. Predicting how disturbance influences spillover risk is critical for effective disease intervention but difficult to achieve at fine spatial scales. Here, we develop a method that learns the spatial distribution of a reservoir species from aerial imagery. Our approach uses neural networks to extract features of known or hypothesized importance from images. The spatial distribution of these features is then summarized and linked to spatially explicit reservoir presence/absence data using boosted regression trees. We demonstrate the utility of our method by applying it to the reservoir of Lassa virus, Mastomys natalensis, within the West African nations of Sierra Leone and Guinea. We show that, when trained using reservoir trapping data and publicly available aerial imagery, our framework learns relationships between environmental features and reservoir occurrence and accurately ranks areas according to the likelihood of reservoir presence.

Arbovirus surveillance in mosquitoes: Historical methods, emerging technologies, and challenges ahead

Arboviruses cause millions of infections each year; however, only limited options are available for treatment and pharmacological prevention. Mosquitoes are among the most important vectors for the transmission of several pathogens to humans. Despite advances, the sampling, viral detection, and control methods for these insects remain ineffective. Challenges arise with the increase in mosquito populations due to climate change, insecticide resistance, and human interference affecting natural habitats, which contribute to the increasing difficulty in controlling the spread of arboviruses. Therefore, prioritizing arbovirus surveillance is essential for effective epidemic preparedness. In this review, we offer a concise historical account of the discovery and monitoring of arboviruses in mosquitoes, from mosquito capture to viral detection. We then analyzed the advantages and limitations of these traditional methods. Furthermore, we investigated the potential of emerging technologies to address these limitations, including the implementation of next-generation sequencing, paper-based devices, spectroscopic detectors, and synthetic biosensors. We also provide perspectives on recurring issues and areas of interest such as insect-specific viruses.

A new multiplexed magnetic capture-Droplet digital PCR tool for monitoring wildlife population health and pathogen surveillance

Anthropogenic stressors are exacerbating the emergence and spread of pathogens worldwide. In regions like the Arctic, where ecosystems are particularly susceptible, marked changes are predicted in regional diversity, intensity, and patterns of infectious diseases. To understand such rapidly changing host-pathogen dynamics and mitigate the impacts of novel pathogens, we need sensitive disease surveillance tools. We developed and validated a novel multiplexed, magnetic capture, and ddPCR tool for the surveillance of multiple pathogens in polar bears, a sentinel species that is considered susceptible to climate change and other stressors with a pan-Arctic distribution. Through sequence-specific magnetic capture, we concentrated five target template sequences from three zoonotic bacteria (Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, Francisella tularensis, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex) and two parasitic (Toxoplasma gondii and Trichinella spp.) pathogens from large quantities (<100 g) of host tissue. We then designed and validated two multiplexed probe-based ddPCR assays for the amplification and detection of the low-concentration target DNA. Validations used 48 polar bear tissues (muscle and liver). We detected 14, 1, 3, 4, and 22 tissue positives for E. rhusiopathiae, F. tularensis, M. tuberculosis complex, T. gondii, and Trichinella spp., respectively. These multiplexed assays offer a rapid, specific tool for quantifying and monitoring the changing geographical and host distributions of pathogens relevant to human and animal health.

Viral genomic features predict orthopoxvirus reservoir hosts

Orthopoxviruses (OPVs), including the causative agents of smallpox and mpox have led to devastating outbreaks in human populations worldwide. However, the discontinuation of smallpox vaccination, which also provides cross-protection against related OPVs, has diminished global immunity to OPVs more broadly. We apply machine learning models incorporating both host ecological and viral genomic features to predict likely reservoirs of OPVs. We demonstrate that incorporating viral genomic features in addition to host ecological traits enhanced the accuracy of potential OPV host predictions, highlighting the importance of host-virus molecular interactions in predicting potential host species. We identify hotspots for geographic regions rich with potential OPV hosts in parts of southeast Asia, equatorial Africa, and the Amazon, revealing high overlap between regions predicted to have a high number of potential OPV host species and those with the lowest smallpox vaccination coverage, indicating a heightened risk for the emergence or establishment of zoonotic OPVs. Our findings can be used to target wildlife surveillance, particularly related to concerns about mpox establishment beyond its historical range.

Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots

The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers-landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure-associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways by modeling four scenarios with livestock and mammalian wildlife as potential and known reservoirs before examining how access to healthcare varies within clusters and scenarios. We found 19 clusters with differing risk factor contributions within a single country (N = 9) or transboundary (N = 10). High-risk areas were mainly closer (11-20%) rather than far ( < 1%) from healthcare. Areas far from healthcare reveal healthcare access inequalities, especially Scenario 3, which includes wild mammals and not livestock as secondary hosts. China (N = 2) and Indonesia (N = 1) had clusters with the highest risk. Our findings can help stakeholders in land use planning, integrating healthcare implementation and One Health actions.

Remotely sensed localised primary production anomalies predict the burden and community structure of infection in long-term rodent datasets

The increasing frequency and cost of zoonotic disease emergence due to global change have led to calls for the primary surveillance of wildlife. This should be facilitated by the ready availability of remotely sensed environmental data, given the importance of the environment in determining infectious disease dynamics. However, there has been little evaluation of the temporal predictiveness of remotely sensed environmental data for infection reservoirs in vertebrate hosts due to a deficit of corresponding high-quality long-term infection datasets. Here we employ two unique decade-spanning datasets for assemblages of infectious agents, including zoonotic agents, in rodents in stable habitats. Such stable habitats are important, as they provide the baseline sets of pathogens for the interactions within degrading habitats that have been identified as hotspots for zoonotic emergence. We focus on the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), a measure of vegetation greening that equates to primary productivity, reasoning that this would modulate infectious agent populations via trophic cascades determining host population density or immunocompetence. We found that EVI, in analyses with data standardised by site, inversely predicted more than one-third of the variation in an index of infectious agent total abundance. Moreover, in bipartite host occupancy networks, weighted network statistics (connectance and modularity) were linked to total abundance and were also predicted by EVI. Infectious agent abundance and, perhaps, community structure are likely to influence infection risk and, in turn, the probability of transboundary emergence. Thus, the present results, which were consistent in disparate forest and desert systems, provide proof-of-principle that within-site fluctuations in satellite-derived greenness indices can furnish useful forecasting that could focus primary surveillance. In relation to the well-documented global greening trend of recent decades, the present results predict declining infection burden in wild vertebrates in stable habitats; but if greening trends were to be reversed, this might magnify the already upwards trend in zoonotic emergence.

A rapid, high-throughput, viral infectivity assay using automated brightfield microscopy with machine learning

Infectivity assays are essential for the development of viral vaccines, antiviral therapies, and the manufacture of biologicals. Traditionally, these assays take 2-7 days and require several manual processing steps after infection. We describe an automated viral infectivity assay (AVIATM), using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and high-throughput brightfield microscopy on 96-well plates that can quantify infection phenotypes within hours, before they are manually visible, and without sample preparation. CNN models were trained on HIV, influenza A virus, coronavirus 229E, vaccinia viruses, poliovirus, and adenoviruses, which together span the four major categories of virus (DNA, RNA, enveloped, and non-enveloped). A sigmoidal function, fit between virus dilution curves and CNN predictions, results in sensitivity ranges comparable to or better than conventional plaque or TCID50 assays, and a precision of ∼10%, which is considerably better than conventional infectivity assays. Because this technology is based on sensitizing CNNs to specific phenotypes of infection, it has potential as a rapid, broad-spectrum tool for virus characterization, and potentially identification.

Preparing for future outbreaks in Ghana: An overview of current COVID-19, monkeypox, and Marburg disease outbreaks

Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Ghana is currently grappling with simultaneous outbreaks of Marburg virus disease and human monkeypox virus. The coexistence of these outbreaks emphasizes the imperative for a collaborative and global approach to enhance surveillance and expedite case detection. While Ghana has made efforts to respond to these outbreaks, this paper outlines the lessons learned and proposes recommendations in this regard. It is crucial to intensify response efforts at the local, regional, and national levels to effectively contain the spread of these infectious diseases. Therefore, this paper suggests prioritizing the following recommendations as crucial for assisting Ghana in adequately preparing for future outbreaks and safeguarding global public health: strengthening surveillance system through digitization, rapid and effective response; risk communication and community engagement; healthcare system readiness; and research and collaboration. Also, prioritizing building healthy public policies and developing personal skills of health personnel across the country is key for future outbreak response.

Nutrition policy critical to optimize response to climate, public health crises

The effects of unanticipated crises on health care and first-responder systems are reflected in climate-fueled environmental emergencies, to which human resilience is diminished by our chronic disease epidemic. For example, people who depend on specialized medications, like refrigerated insulin for diabetes, will likely face additional challenges in receiving treatment and care during extreme heat, floods, disasters, and other adverse events. These circumstances may be compounded by staff and equipment shortages, lack of access to fresh food, and inadequate healthcare infrastructure in the wake of a disaster. Simply put, our health care and first-response systems struggle to meet the demands of chronic disease without such crises and may be fundamentally unable to adequately function with such crises present. However, nutrition's primacy in preventing and controlling chronic disease directly enhances individual and public resilience in the face of existential threats. Highlighting the shared diet-related etiology clearly demonstrates the need for a national policy response to reduce the disease burden and potentiate mitigation of the sequelae of climate risks and capacity limits in our food and health care systems. Accordingly, this article proposes four criteria for nutrition policy in the Anthropocene: objective government nutrition recommendations, healthy dietary patterns, adequate nutrition security, and effective nutrition education. Application of such criteria shows strong potential to improve our resiliency despite the climate and public health crises.

Strengthening coordination and collaboration of one health approach for zoonotic diseases in Africa

Despite the One Health progress made in some African countries in addressing zoonotic disease outbreaks, many still lack formal and funded One Health programs. Countries lack diagnostic capacity for zoonotic diseases, coordinated surveillance mechanisms, multisectoral response strategies and skilled workforce. With the devasting impacts of zoonotic disease outbreaks, recent epidemics have caused a loss of lives and negatively impacted the economy. Strengthening One Health approach across African Union (AU) Member States will improve the continent's ability and capacity to efficiently prevent, detect, and respond to emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases. The policy and practice changes needed to address zoonotic diseases require strong political commitment, financial investments, and institutionalised national One Health programs. The African Union endorses a One Health approach in which multiple sectors work jointly to raise awareness, gather credible data, implement programs, and promote evidence-based policy and practice in improve human, animal, and environmental health. The African Union working through its technical agencies set up an interagency multidisciplinary group "the One Health Coordinating Group on Zoonotic Diseases" to strengthen coordinated surveillance, prevention and control of zoonotic diseases on the continent. There is an urgent need to strengthen the coordination of One Health activities across the African continent. The African Union will leverage its unique political position on the continent to raise awareness, secure commitments, and influence policy at the head of state level. This manuscript highlights the opportunity to improve and strengthen One Health coordination and harmonisation of efforts through a continental strategy for zoonotic disease control.

Demystifying a buzzword: Use of the term "human-animal-interface" in One Health oriented research based on a literature review and expert interviews

As of today, 75% of infectious human diseases are caused by zoonotic pathogens, which use the interface between humans and animal species to cross. Due to this ability, zoonoses affect more than just one health sector and the effective control is a matter of the One Health concept. One defining feature of this concept is the "human-animal-interface". However, even though the term is ubiquitously used in the field of infectious disease research, a clear definition of the term is lacking, leading to a rather nebulous understanding of what this interface really encompasses. Based on this observation, this study aimed to analyze the use of the term "human-animal-interface" in scientific literature to identify patterns and categories facilitating a scientific categorization. A systematic literature search of two electronic databases was performed complemented by interviews with health experts in the field of zoonoses/One Health conducted between March 2019 and May 2021. From identified publications, keywords and interface descriptions were extracted and categorized. Interviews followed a questioning route, were audio recorded, transcribed, and qualitative content was inductively categorized. Findings are based on 208 publications and 27 expert interviews. "Transmission" and "zoonosis" were the most frequent literature-based keywords, while the interviewees clearly favored "interface" followed by "contact". Seven categories of contact interfaces were inductively derived: direct contact (physical contact), consumption of animal products, use of animal products (blood transfusion, skin), contact with animal products (blood, secretion, meat), indirect contact (dust, inhalation, droplets), environmental contact (same surface or food), vector contact). Precise descriptions of the interfaces varied greatly depending on the pathogen domain (bacterial, viral, fungal). Specific patterns could be identified that were consistent between the literature and experts. The study results showed a general concordance in defining and describing the human-animal-interface indicating a general understanding of the term. However, studies on a larger scale are recommended (e.g. systematic review) to allow a more thorough view of the understanding and definition of the human-animal-interface.

An immediate way to lower pandemic risk: (not) seizing the low-hanging fruit (bat)

What is the least that humanity can do to mitigate the risks of future pandemics, to prevent worldwide surges in human deaths, illness, and suffering-and more waves of multitrillion US dollar impacts on the global economy? The issues around our consumption and trading of wildlife are diverse and complex, with many rural communities being dependent on wild meat for their nutritional needs. But bats might be one taxonomic group that can be successfully eliminated from the human diet and other uses, with minimal costs or inconvenience to the vast majority of the 8 billion people on Earth. The order Chiroptera merits genuine respect given all that these species contribute to human food supplies through pollination services provided by the frugivores and to disease risk mitigation delivered by insectivorous species. The global community missed its chance to stop SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 from emerging-how many more times will humanity allow this cycle to repeat? How long will governments ignore the science that is in front of them? It's past time for humans to do the least that can be done. A global taboo is needed whereby humanity agrees to leave bats alone, not fear them or try to chase them away or cull them, but to let them have the habitats they need and live undisturbed by humans.

Operationalizing One Health: Environmental Solutions for Pandemic Prevention

Human pressure on the environment is increasing the frequency, diversity, and spatial extent of disease outbreaks. Despite international recognition, the interconnection between the health of the environment, animals, and humans has been historically overlooked. Past and current initiatives have often neglected prevention under the One Health preparedness cycle, largely focusing on post-spillover stages. We argue that pandemic prevention initiatives have yet to produce actionable targets and indicators, connected to overarching goals, like it has been done for biodiversity loss and climate change. We show how the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework, already employed by the Convention on Biological Diversity, can be repurposed to operationalize pandemic prevention. Global responses for pandemic prevention should strive for complementarity and synergies among initiatives, better articulating prevention under One Health. Without agreed-upon goals underpinning specific targets and interventions, current global efforts are unlikely to function at the speed and scale necessary to decrease the risk of disease outbreaks that might lead to pandemics. Threats to the environment are not always abatable, but decreasing the likelihood that environmental pressure leads to pandemics, and developing strategies to mitigate these impacts, are both attainable goals.

Balancing economic and epidemiological interventions in the early stages of pathogen emergence

The global pandemic of COVID-19 has underlined the need for more coordinated responses to emergent pathogens. These responses need to balance epidemic control in ways that concomitantly minimize hospitalizations and economic damages. We develop a hybrid economic-epidemiological modeling framework that allows us to examine the interaction between economic and health impacts over the first period of pathogen emergence when lockdown, testing, and isolation are the only means of containing the epidemic. This operational mathematical setting allows us to determine the optimal policy interventions under a variety of scenarios that might prevail in the first period of a large-scale epidemic outbreak. Combining testing with isolation emerges as a more effective policy than lockdowns, substantially reducing deaths and the number of infected hosts, at lower economic cost. If a lockdown is put in place early in the course of the epidemic, it always dominates the "laissez-faire" policy of doing nothing.

Next Generation Sequencing Revolutionizes Organismal Biology Research in Bats

The advent of next generation sequencing technologies (NGS) has greatly accelerated our understanding of critical aspects of organismal biology from non-model organisms. Bats form a particularly interesting group in this regard, as genomic data have helped unearth a vast spectrum of idiosyncrasies in bat genomes associated with bat biology, physiology, and evolution. Bats are important bioindicators and are keystone species to many eco-systems. They often live in proximity to humans and are frequently associated with emerging infectious diseases, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly four dozen bat genomes have been published to date, ranging from drafts to chromosomal level assemblies. Genomic investigations in bats have also become critical towards our understanding of disease biology and host-pathogen coevolution. In addition to whole genome sequencing, low coverage genomic data like reduced representation libraries, resequencing data, etc. have contributed significantly towards our understanding of the evolution of natural populations, and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations. In this review, we discuss how genomic data have enhanced our understanding of physiological adaptations in bats (particularly related to ageing, immunity, diet, etc.), pathogen discovery, and host pathogen co-evolution. In comparison, the application of NGS towards population genomics, conservation, biodiversity assessment, and functional genomics has been appreciably slower. We reviewed the current areas of focus, identifying emerging topical research directions and providing a roadmap for future genomic studies in bats.

When should global health actors prioritise more uncertain interventions?

Global health actors use economic evaluations, including cost-effectiveness analyses, to estimate the effect of different interventions they might fund. However, producing reliable cost-effectiveness estimates is difficult, meaning organisations must often choose between funding interventions for which reliable predictions of efficacy exist and those for which they do not. In practice, many organisations appear to be risk-averse, favouring more certain interventions simply because they are more certain. We argue that this practice is not justifiable. Prioritising projects backed by greater evidence might often produce greater health benefits. However, a general tendency to prefer more certain interventions will cause global health actors to overlook opportunities to help less well-studied populations, support promising but complex interventions, address the upstream causes of illness, and conduct the most important impact evaluations. We argue that global health actors should instead adopt nuanced attitudes towards uncertainty and be willing to fund highly uncertain interventions in some cases. We further describe the considerations they should take into account in rendering these judgements.

Epidemic intelligence data of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, European Region, 2012 to 2022: a new opportunity for risk mapping of neglected diseases

BackgroundThe Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) system, jointly developed by the World Health Organisation (WHO), the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and various partners, is a web-based platform that facilitate the monitoring of information on public health threats in near real-time from thousands of online sources.AimsTo assess the capacity of the EIOS system to strengthen data collection for neglected diseases of public health importance, and to evaluate the use of EIOS data for improving the understanding of the geographic extents of diseases and their level of risk.MethodsA Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model was implemented to map the risk of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) occurrence in 52 countries and territories within the European Region between January 2012 and March 2022 using data on CCHF occurrence retrieved from the EIOS system.ResultsThe model found a positive association between all temperature-related variables and the probability of CCHF occurrence, with an increased risk in warmer and drier areas. The highest risk of CCHF was found in the Mediterranean basin and in areas bordering the Black Sea. There was a general decreasing risk trend from south to north across the entire European Region.ConclusionThe study highlights that the information gathered by public health intelligence can be used to build a disease risk map. Internet-based sources could aid in the assessment of new or changing risks and planning effective actions in target areas.

WildHealthNet: Supporting the development of sustainable wildlife health surveillance networks in Southeast Asia

Wildlife and wildlife interfaces with people and livestock are essential surveillance targets to monitor emergent or endemic pathogens or new threats affecting wildlife, livestock, and human health. However, limitations of previous investments in scope and duration have resulted in a neglect of wildlife health surveillance (WHS) systems at national and global scales, particularly in lower and middle income countries (LMICs). Building on decades of wildlife health activities in LMICs, we demonstrate the implementation of a locally-driven multi-pronged One Health approach to establishing WHS in Cambodia, Lao PDR and Viet Nam under the WildHealthNet initiative. WildHealthNet utilizes existing local capacity in the animal, public health, and environmental sectors for event based or targeted surveillance and disease detection. To scale up surveillance systems to the national level, WildHealthNet relies on iterative field implementation and policy development, capacity bridging, improving data collection and management systems, and implementing context specific responses to wildlife health intelligence. National WHS systems piloted in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam engaged protected area rangers, wildlife rescue centers, community members, and livestock and human health sector staff and laboratories. Surveillance activities detected outbreaks of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds, African swine fever in wild boar (Sus scrofa), Lumpy skin disease in banteng (Bos javanicus), and other endemic zoonotic pathogens identified as surveillance priorities by local stakeholders. In Cambodia and Lao PDR, national plans for wildlife disease surveillance are being signed into legislation. Cross-sectoral and trans-disciplinary approaches are needed to implement effective WHS systems. Long-term commitment, and paralleled implementation and policy development are key to sustainable WHS networks. WildHealthNet offers a roadmap to aid in the development of locally-relevant and locally-led WHS systems that support the global objectives of the World Organization for Animal Health's Wildlife Health Framework and other international agendas.

Interventions to Reduce Risk for Pathogen Spillover and Early Disease Spread to Prevent Outbreaks, Epidemics, and Pandemics

The pathogens that cause most emerging infectious diseases in humans originate in animals, particularly wildlife, and then spill over into humans. The accelerating frequency with which humans and domestic animals encounter wildlife because of activities such as land-use change, animal husbandry, and markets and trade in live wildlife has created growing opportunities for pathogen spillover. The risk of pathogen spillover and early disease spread among domestic animals and humans, however, can be reduced by stopping the clearing and degradation of tropical and subtropical forests, improving health and economic security of communities living in emerging infectious disease hotspots, enhancing biosecurity in animal husbandry, shutting down or strictly regulating wildlife markets and trade, and expanding pathogen surveillance. We summarize expert opinions on how to implement these goals to prevent outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Artificial intelligence in public health: the potential of epidemic early warning systems

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) to generate automated early warnings in epidemic surveillance by harnessing vast open-source data with minimal human intervention has the potential to be both revolutionary and highly sustainable. AI can overcome the challenges faced by weak health systems by detecting epidemic signals much earlier than traditional surveillance. AI-based digital surveillance is an adjunct to-not a replacement of-traditional surveillance and can trigger early investigation, diagnostics and responses at the regional level. This narrative review focuses on the role of AI in epidemic surveillance and summarises several current epidemic intelligence systems including ProMED-mail, HealthMap, Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources, BlueDot, Metabiota, the Global Biosurveillance Portal, Epitweetr and EPIWATCH. Not all of these systems are AI-based, and some are only accessible to paid users. Most systems have large volumes of unfiltered data; only a few can sort and filter data to provide users with curated intelligence. However, uptake of these systems by public health authorities, who have been slower to embrace AI than their clinical counterparts, is low. The widespread adoption of digital open-source surveillance and AI technology is needed for the prevention of serious epidemics.

COVID-19 Spotlights Connections between Disease and Multiple Lifestyle Factors

The SARS-CoV-2 virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), and the disease it causes (COVID-19), have had a profound impact on global human society and threaten to continue to have such an impact with newly emerging variants. Because of the widespread effects of SARS-CoV-2, understanding how lifestyle choices impact the severity of disease is imperative. This review summarizes evidence for an involvement of chronic, non-resolving inflammation, gut microbiome disruption (dysbiosis with loss of beneficial microorganisms), and impaired viral defenses, all of which are associated with an imbalanced lifestyle, in severe disease manifestations and post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC). Humans' physiological propensity for uncontrolled inflammation and severe COVID-19 are briefly contrasted with bats' low propensity for inflammation and their resistance to viral disease. This insight is used to identify positive lifestyle factors with the potential to act in synergy for restoring balance to the immune response and gut microbiome, and thereby protect individuals against severe COVID-19 and PASC. It is proposed that clinicians should consider recommending lifestyle factors, such as stress management, balanced nutrition and physical activity, as preventative measures against severe viral disease and PASC.