Global beta-diversity of angiosperm trees is shaped by Quaternary climate change

Climate Variability Modulates the Temporal Stability of Carbon Sequestration by Changing Multiple Facets of Biodiversity in Temperate Forests Across Scales

Climate variability poses a significant threat to ecosystem function and stability. Previous studies suggest that multiple facets of biodiversity enhance the temporal stability of forest ecosystem functioning through compensatory effects. However, as climate change intensifies, two key questions remain unresolved: (1) the mechanisms by which different biodiversity facets sustain the temporal stability of carbon sequestration across spatial scales and (2) how climate variability influences biodiversity and stability at different scales. In this study, based on data from 262 natural communities in the temperate forests of northeastern China, we aggregated metacommunities at varying spatial extents. Using ordinary-least squares regression, we examined the relationships between different facets of biodiversity and the temporal stability of carbon sequestration (hereafter, "stability") across scales. We then employed mixed-effects models to assess how multiple facets of biodiversity influence biotic stability mechanisms at different scales. Additionally, we applied piecewise structural equation modeling to disentangle the relationships among climate variability, multiple facets of biodiversity, and stability across scales. Our findings indicate that biodiversity facets (taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity) enhance ecosystem stability at multiple scales primarily through insurance effects. Temperature variability was negatively correlated with all biodiversity facets, and declines in biodiversity were associated with reduced ecosystem stability at different scales. Precipitation variability, in contrast, was negatively correlated with α diversity facets but positively correlated with β diversity facets. Unexpectedly, precipitation variability exhibited an overall positive correlation with stability across scales. These results suggest that increasing temperature variability may pose a greater threat to temperate forest ecosystems in the future. Thus, preserving multiple facets of biodiversity across spatial scales will be critical for mitigating the adverse effects of climate warming. Furthermore, the impact of precipitation variability cannot be overlooked in arid and semi-arid regions. Our study provides novel insights into biodiversity conservation under global climate change.

Future climate change facilitates the herb drought-tolerant species distribution than woody species

Drought-tolerant species play a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem services in arid and semi-arid regions wherein subject to rapid climate change. However, how future climate change affect the distribution of drought-tolerant plants with different growth forms (e.g., herb and woody) remains largely unknown. Here, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential species distribution under current conditions, and predicted the future species distribution of 82 common drought-tolerant plants in China under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) in the future. We found that the western and northern regions of China are hotspots for drought-tolerant plant distribution. Compared with other predictors, aridity index (AI) explained the largest portion of variation (45%) in the distribution patterns of drought-tolerant plant plants. Climate change would change the distribution of drought-tolerant plants, with more than 50% of the species showing a trend of shrinking ranges in China. For both herb and woody plants, the highest turnover values were observed under SSP585 for the period 2081-2100, reaching 37.67% and 29.08%, respectively. Our results highlighted that herb and woody plants respond differently to climate change stresses, with herb plants projected to greatly expand their ranges in the future. These insights are vital for evaluating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and informing the development of effective adaptation strategies.

Late Quaternary fluctuation in upper range limit of trees shapes endemic flora diversity on the Tibetan Plateau

The influence of paleoclimate in shaping current biodiversity pattern is widely acknowledged. However, it remains unclear how the upper paleo-range limit of trees, which dictated the habitat of endemic alpine species, affects the variability in endemic alpine species composition across space over the Tibetan Plateau. We integrated satellite-derived upper range limit of trees, dendrochronological data, and fossil pollen records with a paleoclimate dataset in a climate-driven predictive model to reconstruct the spatio-temporal upper range limit of trees at 100-year intervals since the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results show that trees distributed at the lowest elevations during the Last Glacial Maximum (~3426 m), and ascended to the highest elevations during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (~4187 m), a level ~180 m higher than the present-day (~4009 m). The temporal fluctuations in paleo-range limits of trees play a more important role than paleoclimate in shaping the current spatial pattern of beta-diversity of endemic flora, with regions witnessing higher fluctuations having lower beta-diversity. We therefore suggest that anthropogenic-caused climate change on decadal-to-centennial timescales could lead to higher fluctuations in range limits than orbitally-forced climate variability on centennial-to-millennium timescales, which consequently could cause spatial homogenization of endemic alpine species composition, threatening Tibetan endemic species pool.

Biodiversity Patterns Redefined in Environmental Space

Ecological and evolutionary questions addressing diversity-environment relationships have been evaluated almost entirely in geographic space, yet most hypotheses are formulated in terms of environmental conditions. Recent examples evaluating macroecological patterns directly in environmental space suggest that such refocusing provides different perspectives on the mechanisms driving broad-scale patterns of diversity. Yet, we lack both conceptual frameworks and targeted studies to fully evaluate the potential contribution of such a refocus. Here, we focus on the concept of environmental space by briefly reviewing its use in ecology and evolution and suggesting avenues for further development. We encourage a re-evaluation of hypotheses and frameworks that have dominated ecological theory since the foundations of ecology with a very simple shift in the lens, that is, from geographical to environmental space. Focusing on environmental space also provides a crucial lens for climate change research, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of biodiversity dynamics and offering a holistic view of the interplay between species and their evolving environments. This shift enhances our ability to predict and adapt to future changes, enriching our understanding of biodiversity beyond more commonly done geographic analyses.

Climate change alters the future of natural floristic regions of deep evolutionary origins

Biogeographic regions reflect the organization of biotas over long evolutionary timescales but face alterations from recent anthropogenic climate change. Here, we model species distributions for 189,269 vascular plant species of the world under present and future climates and use this data to generate biogeographic regions based on phylogenetic dissimilarity. Our analysis reveals declines in phylogenetic beta diversity for years 2040 to 2100, leading to a future homogenization of biogeographic regions. While some biogeographic boundaries will persist, climate change will alter boundaries separating biogeographic realms. Such boundary alterations will be determined by altitude variation, heterogeneity of temperature seasonality, and past climate velocity. Our findings suggest that human activities may now surpass the geological forces that shaped floristic regions over millions of years, calling for the mitigation of climate impacts to meet international biodiversity targets.

Environment and management jointly shape the spatial patterns of plant species diversity of moist grasslands in the mountains of northeastern Yunnan

Grasslands account for about a quarter of the Earth's land area and are one of the major terrestrial ecosystems, with significant ecological and economic values. The influence of environmental factors and management types on grassland biodiversity has garnered considerable attention. This study investigated how patterns of species richness are influenced by geographical distance, environmental gradients, and management type in the moist mountain grasslands of northeastern Yunnan, China. We used structural equation modeling to disentangle the impacts of environment and management on phylogenetic community structure, and using partial Mantel tests estimated the roles of dispersal limitation and environmental filtering on taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity of three types of grasslands. Our results show that taxonomic alpha diversity increased in grazed grasslands and decreased in mowed grasslands, compared with protected grasslands. However, the phylogenetic structure of both grazed and mowed grassland communities was clustered, whereas that of protected communities was random. Moreover, both grazing and mowing significantly reduced the taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity of grasslands, with the lowest values observed in mowed grasslands. Both taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity were dominated by species turnover under different management types. The taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversities of protected and grazed grasslands were simultaneously affected by environmental filtering and dispersal limitation, with the later playing a stronger role. In addition, mowing and following management measures had a stronger filtering effect on grassland community structure, as reflected by changes in community composition.

Detection of functional diversity gradients and their geoclimatic filters is sensitive to data types (occurrence vs. abundance) and spatial scales (sites vs. regions)

Functional diversity (FD) reflects within- and between-site variation of species traits (α- and β-FD, respectively). Understanding how much data types (occurrence-based vs. abundance-weighted) and spatial scales (sites vs. regions) change FD and ultimately interfere with the detection of underlying geoclimatic filters is still debated. To contribute to this debate, we explored the occurrence of 1690 species in 690 sites, abundances of 1198 species in 343 sites, and seven functional traits of the Atlantic Forest woody flora in South America. All FD indices were sensitive and dependent on the data type at both scales, with occurrence particularly increasing α richness and dispersion (occurrence > abundance in 80% of the sites) while abundance increased β total, β replacement, and α evenness (abundance > occurrence in 60% of the sites). Furthermore, detecting the effect of geoclimatic filters depended on the data type and was scale-dependent. At the site scale, precipitation seasonality and soil depth had weak effects on α- and β-FD (max. R2 = 0.11). However, regional-scale patterns of α richness, dispersion, and evenness strongly mirrored the variation in precipitation seasonality, soil depth, forest stability over the last 120 kyr, and cation exchange capacity (correlations > 0.80), suggesting that geoclimatic filters manifest stronger effects at the regional scale. Also, the role of edaphic gradients expands the idea of biogeographical filters beyond climate. Our findings caution functional biogeographic studies to consider the effect of data type and spatial scale before designing and reaching ecological conclusions about the complex nature of FD.

The Potential Habitat Response of Cyclobalanopsis gilva to Climate Change

Cyclobalanopsis gilva, a valuable timber species in China, holds significant importance for understanding the constraints imposed by climate change on the dynamic geographic distribution of tree species. This study utilized the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to reconstruct the migratory dynamics of C. gilva geographical distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum. The objective was to comprehend the restrictive mechanisms of environmental factors on its potential geographical distribution, aiming to provide insights for mid-to-long-term afforestation planning of C. gilva. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibited a significantly high predictive accuracy, with an average AUC value of 0.949 ± 0.004 for the modern suitable habitat model of C. gilva. The total suitable habitat area for C. gilva in contemporary times was 143.05 × 104 km2, with a highly suitable habitat area of 3.14 × 104 km2. The contemporary suitable habitat was primarily located in the southeastern regions of China, while the highly suitable habitat was concentrated in eastern Fujian and central-eastern Taiwan. Bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range (Bio2), min temperature of coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) predominantly influenced the modern geographic distribution pattern of C. gilva, with temperature factors playing a leading role. With global climate warming, there is a risk of fragmentation or even loss of suitable habitat for C. gilva by 2050 and 2090. Therefore, the findings of this study can significantly contribute to initiating a habitat conservation campaign for this species.

Unravelling the functional and phylogenetic dimensions of novel ecosystem assemblages

Human activities are causing taxonomic rearrangements across ecosystems that often result in the emergence of novel communities (assemblies with no historical representative). It is commonly assumed that these changes in the taxonomic makeup of ecosystems also inevitably lead to changes in other aspects of biodiversity, namely functional and phylogenetic diversity. However, this assumption is not always valid, as the changes in functional and phylogenetic composition resulting from taxonomic shifts depend on the level of redundancy in the evaluated community. Therefore, we need improved theoretical frameworks to predict when we can expect coordinated or decoupled responses among these three facets of biodiversity. To advance this understanding, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues that complicate establishing a link between taxonomic rearrangements driven by human activities and the associated functional and phylogenetic changes. Here, we show that is crucial to consider the expected changes in functional and phylogenetic composition as communities are reshaped owing to human drivers of biodiversity loss to forecast the impacts of novel assemblages on ecosystem functions and the services they provide to humanity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Africa as an evolutionary arena for large fruits

Strong paleoclimatic change and few Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions make mainland Africa unique among continents. Here, we hypothesize that, compared with elsewhere, these conditions created the ecological opportunity for the macroevolution and geographic distribution of large fruits. We assembled global phylogenetic, distribution and fruit size data for palms (Arecaceae), a pantropical, vertebrate-dispersed family with > 2600 species, and integrated these with data on extinction-driven body size reduction in mammalian frugivore assemblages since the Late Quaternary. We applied evolutionary trait, linear and null models to identify the selective pressures that have shaped fruit sizes. We show that African palm lineages have evolved towards larger fruit sizes and exhibited faster trait evolutionary rates than lineages elsewhere. Furthermore, the global distribution of the largest palm fruits across species assemblages was explained by occurrence in Africa, especially under low canopies, and extant megafauna, but not by mammalian downsizing. These patterns strongly deviated from expectations under a null model of stochastic (Brownian motion) evolution. Our results suggest that Africa provided a distinct evolutionary arena for palm fruit size evolution. We argue that megafaunal abundance and the expansion of savanna habitat since the Miocene provided selective advantages for the persistence of African plants with large fruits.

Geographic patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity of angiosperm genera in regional floras across the world

Beta diversity (β-diversity) is the scalar between local (α) and regional (γ) diversity. Understanding geographic patterns of β-diversity is central to ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology. A full understanding of the origin and maintenance of geographic patterns of β-diversity requires exploring both taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity, as well as their respective turnover and nestedness components, and exploring phylogenetic β-diversity at different evolutionary depths. In this study, we explore and map geographic patterns of β-diversity for angiosperm genera in regional floras across the world. We examine both taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity and their constituent components, and both tip-weighted and basal-weighted phylogenetic β-diversity, and relate them to latitude. On the one hand, our study found that the global distribution of β-diversity is highly heterogeneous. This is the case for both taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity, and for both tip-weighted and basal-weighted phylogenetic β-diversity. On the other hand, our study found that there are highly consistent geographic patterns among different metrics of β-diversity. In most cases, metrics of β-diversity are negatively associated with latitude, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Different metrics of taxonomic β-diversity are strongly and positively correlated with their counterparts of phylogenetic β-diversity.