Climate Drives Sea Change

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.

Human-induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human-driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity-based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high-quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Forest Carbon Storage in a Tropical/Subtropical Island with Multiple Ecozones

Visual data on the geographic distribution of carbon storage help policy makers to formulate countermeasures for global warming. However, Taiwan, as an island showing diversity in climate and topography, had lacked valid visual data on the distribution of forest carbon storage between the last two forest surveys (1993-2015). This study established a model to estimate and illustrate the distribution of forest carbon storage. This model uses land use, stand morphology, and carbon conversion coefficient databases accordingly for 51 types of major forests in Taiwan. An estimation in 2006 was conducted and shows an overall carbon storage of 165.65 Mt C, with forest carbon storage per unit area of 71.56 t C ha-1, where natural forests and plantations respectively contributed 114.15 Mt C (68.9%) and 51.50 Mt C (31.1%). By assuming no change in land use type, the carbon sequestration from 2006 to 2007 by the 51 forest types was estimated to be 5.21 Mt C yr-1 using historical tree growth and mortality rates. The result reflects the reality of the land use status and the events of coverage shifting with time by combining the two forest surveys in Taiwan.

Flood risk public perception in flash flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan

Floods due to higher severity of destruction are considered the most destructive natural hazards in the world. Initiating the appropriate strategies of disaster risk reduction is necessary to understand risk perception. This study attempted to examine the flood risk public perception in flash flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan. A simple random sampling technique was used for collecting the data of 560 household respondents, and a logistic regression model was employed to make out the factors of flood risk perception. In classification of low and high perceived risk of relevant indicators, flood risk perception index was constructed. Risk perception is significantly influenced by socioeconomic factors which have a direct impact on disaster preparedness and potential adaptive capacities. After that, potential correlation of risk perception with the demographic status of respondents was investigated in this study. Empirical estimates indicated as respondents' schooling, ownership of house, size of household, employment status and past flood experience significantly influence flood risk perception. Risk perception determinants also diverse among both communities portray spatial differences. Inadequate protection measures from public authorities and institutions, limited preparedness regarding actions of private mitigation, reduced intensity of reliance in institutions and authorities are major reasons for high risk and lower mitigation in these flash flood-prone areas. The outcomes of this research can facilitate to understand flood risk perception and its factors for conniving appropriate management plan of flood risk and communication strategies. Furthermore, this research can help consider multidimensional flood risks and its spatial vibrancy from the perspective of social science.

Unprecedented decline of Arctic sea ice outflow in 2018

Fram Strait is the major gateway connecting the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, where nearly 90% of the sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean takes place. The exported sea ice is a large source of freshwater to the Nordic Seas and Subpolar North Atlantic, thereby preconditioning European climate and deep water formation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that in 2018, the ice export through Fram Strait showed an unprecedented decline since the early 1990s. The 2018 ice export was reduced to less than 40% relative to that between 2000 and 2017. The minimum export is attributed to regional sea ice-ocean processes driven by an anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The result indicates that a drastic change of the Arctic sea ice outflow and its environmental consequences happen not only through Arctic-wide ice thinning, but also by regional scale atmospheric anomalies.

Fram Strait is the major gateway connecting the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, where nearly 90% of the sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean takes place. Here, the authors show that in 2018, ice export showed an unprecedented decline since at least the 1990s, attributed to ongoing Arctic-wide ice thinning and regional-scale atmospheric anomalies.

From coast to coast to coast: ecology and management of seagrass ecosystems across Canada

Seagrass meadows are among the most productive and diverse marine ecosystems, providing essential structure, functions, and services. They are also among the most impacted by human activities and in urgent need of better management and protection. In Canada, eelgrass ( Zostera marina) meadows are found along the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic coasts, and thus occur across a wide range of biogeographic conditions. Here, we synthesize knowledge of eelgrass ecosystems across Canada’s coasts, highlighting commonalities and differences in environmental conditions, plant, habitat, and community structure, as well as current trends and human impacts. Across regions, eelgrass life history, phenology, and general species assemblages are similar. However, distinct regional differences occur in environmental conditions, particularly with water temperature and nutrient availability. There is considerable variation in the types and strengths of human activities among regions. The impacts of coastal development are prevalent in all regions, while other impacts are of concern for specific regions, e.g., nutrient loading in the Atlantic and impacts from the logging industry in the Pacific. In addition, climate change represents a growing threat to eelgrass meadows. We review current management and conservation efforts and discuss the implications of observed differences from coast to coast to coast.

Atlas of Shipwrecks in Inner Ionian Sea (Greece): A Remote Sensing Approach

Underwater cultural heritage (UCH) sites constitute an important part of the overall cultural heritage both nationally and globally as they carry cultural, environmental, scientific, technological, political, economic and social viewpoints. UCH includes not only submerged sites and buildings, but also vessels and aircrafts. The Inner Ionian Sea in Greece is a place rich in a significant number of shipwrecks with a timespan ranging from ancient times right through to the 20th century. The results herein present the study of ancient, World War I (WWI), World War II (WWII) and more recent shipwrecks in the inner Ionian Sea. A total of 11 out of 36 known shipwrecks in the area have been systematically studied using marine remote sensing and ground truthing techniques. The marine remote sensing sensors include: side scan sonars, sub-bottom profilers and multi-beam echo-sounders. At each wreck site, the condition of the wreck, the debris field and man-made activities were determined based mainly on acoustic data. The history of each wreck is also briefly documented. The conclusion of the current research work is that there is an immediate need for a shipwreck protection framework in the Inner Ionian Sea; wrecks included in this work are a highly important part of UCH and man-made activities (e.g., fishing) threaten their integrity.

The North Atlantic Ecosystem, from Plankton to Whales

Compared with terrestrial ecosystems, marine ecosystems have a higher proportion of heterotrophic biomass. Building from this observation, we define the North Atlantic biome as the region where the large, lipid-rich copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant mesozooplankton species. This species is superbly adapted to take advantage of the intense pulse of productivity associated with the North Atlantic spring bloom. Most of the characteristic North Atlantic species, including cod, herring, and right whales, rely on C. finmarchicus either directly or indirectly. The notion of a biome rests inherently on an assumption of stability, yet conditions in the North Atlantic are anything but stable. Humans have reduced the abundance of many fish and whales (though some recovery is underway). Humans are also introducing physical and chemical trends associated with global climate change. Thus, the future of the North Atlantic depends on the biome's newest species, Homo sapiens.

Biogeographic responses of the copepod Calanus glacialis to a changing Arctic marine environment

Dramatic changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean over the past few decades, especially in terms of sea ice loss and ocean warming. Those environmental changes may modify the planktonic ecosystem with changes from lower to upper trophic levels. This study aimed to understand how the biogeographic distribution of a crucial endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, may respond to both abiotic (ocean temperature) and biotic (phytoplankton prey) drivers. A copepod individual-based model coupled to an ice-ocean-biogeochemical model was utilized to simulate temperature- and food-dependent life cycle development of C. glacialis annually from 1980 to 2014. Over the 35-year study period, the northern boundaries of modeled diapausing C. glacialis expanded poleward and the annual success rates of C. glacialis individuals attaining diapause in a circumpolar transition zone increased substantially. Those patterns could be explained by a lengthening growth season (during which time food is ample) and shortening critical development time (the period from the first feeding stage N3 to the diapausing stage C4). The biogeographic changes were further linked to large-scale oceanic processes, particularly diminishing sea ice cover, upper ocean warming, and increasing and prolonging food availability, which could have potential consequences to the entire Arctic shelf/slope marine ecosystems.

Predation and food–weather interactions drive colony collapse in a managed metapopulation of Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea)

Seabirds are considered bioindicators of bottom-up ecosystem processes, owing to seabirds’ dependence on marine prey. However, ground-nesting seabirds are susceptible to predation, which can limit their use as bioindicators. Machias Seal Island (MSI) supported the largest colony of Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea Pontoppidan, 1763) in the Gulf of Maine metapopulation, but prolonged breeding failure led ∼90% of terns to abandon the colony in 2006. We analyzed 12 years of food, weather, and predation data using logistic regression models to determine which had the strongest influence on breeding success. Food–weather interactions were important; under low rainfall, more euphausiids (northern krill, Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars, 1857)) in the diet increased breeding success, but euphausiids had a negative effect as rainfall became moderate or high. Predation by Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus Pontoppidan, 1763) increased following the cessation of lethal predator control; we identified a predation threshold of 25%, beyond which terns could not breed successfully. The collapse of MSI’s tern colony can be attributed entirely to gull predation. The breeding success of terns at MSI cannot be used as a bottom-up ecosystem bioindicator without accounting for predation. Managers of ground-nesting seabirds should consider predation and food as equally valid potential causes of population or reproductive declines.

Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean

Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate-associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture-recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980-2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species.

Long-term declines in an intertidal foundation species parallel shifts in community composition

The earth is in the midst of a biodiversity crisis, and projections indicate continuing and accelerating rates of global changes. Future alterations in communities and ecosystems may be precipitated by changes in the abundance of strongly interacting species, whose disappearance can lead to profound changes in abundance of other species, including an increase in extinction rate for some. Nearshore coastal communities are often dependent on the habitat and food resources provided by foundational plant (e.g., kelp) and animal (e.g., shellfish) species. We quantified changes in the abundance of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), a foundation species known to influence diversity and productivity of intertidal habitats, over the past 40 years in the Gulf of Maine, USA, one of the fastest warming regions in the global ocean. Using consistent survey methods, we compared contemporary population sizes to historical data from sites spanning >400 km. The results of these comparisons showed that blue mussels have declined in the Gulf of Maine by >60% (range: 29-100%) at the site level since the earliest benchmarks in the 1970s. At the same time as mussels declined, community composition shifted: at the four sites with historical community data, the sessile community became increasingly algal dominated. Contemporary (2013-2014) surveys across 20 sites showed that sessile species richness was positively correlated to mussel abundance in mid to high intertidal zones. These results suggest that declines in a critical foundation species may have already impacted the intertidal community. To inform future conservation efforts, we provide a database of historical and contemporary baselines of mussel population abundance and dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Our results underscore the importance of anticipating not only changes in diversity but also changes in the abundance and identity of component species, as strong interactors like foundation species have the potential to drive cascading community shifts.

Dissolved organic carbon fluxes in the Middle Atlantic Bight: An integrated approach based on satellite data and ocean model products

Continental margins play an important role in global carbon cycle, accounting for 15-21% of the global marine primary production. Since carbon fluxes across continental margins from land to the open ocean are not well constrained, we undertook a study to develop satellite algorithms to retrieve dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and combined these satellite data with physical circulation model products to quantify the shelf boundary fluxes of DOC for the U.S. Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB). Satellite DOC was computed through seasonal relationships of DOC with colored dissolved organic matter absorption coefficients, which were derived from an extensive set of in situ measurements. The multiyear time series of satellite-derived DOC stocks (4.9 Teragrams C; Tg) shows that freshwater discharge influences the magnitude and seasonal variability of DOC on the continental shelf. For the 2010-2012 period studied, the average total estuarine export of DOC into the MAB shelf is 0.77 Tg C yr^-1 (year). The integrated DOC tracer fluxes across the shelf boundaries are 12.1 Tg C yr^-1 entering the MAB from the southwest alongshore boundary, 18.5 Tg C yr^-1 entering the MAB from the northeast alongshore boundary, and 29.0 Tg C yr^-1 flowing out of the MAB across the entire length of the 100 m isobath. The magnitude of the cross-shelf DOC flux is quite variable in time (monthly) and space (north to south). The highly dynamic exchange of water along the shelf boundaries regulates the DOC budget of the MAB at subseasonal time scales.

A holistic view of marine regime shifts

Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

Productivity in the barents sea--response to recent climate variability

The temporal and spatial dynamics of primary and secondary biomass/production in the Barents Sea since the late 1990s are examined using remote sensing data, observations and a coupled physical-biological model. Field observations of mesozooplankton biomass, and chlorophyll a data from transects (different seasons) and large-scale surveys (autumn) were used for validation of the remote sensing products and modeling results. The validation showed that satellite data are well suited to study temporal and spatial dynamics of chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea and that the model is an essential tool for secondary production estimates. Temperature, open water area, chlorophyll a, and zooplankton biomass show large interannual variations in the Barents Sea. The climatic variability is strongest in the northern and eastern parts. The moderate increase in net primary production evident in this study is likely an ecosystem response to changes in climate during the same period. Increased open water area and duration of open water season, which are related to elevated temperatures, appear to be the key drivers of the changes in annual net primary production that has occurred in the northern and eastern areas of this ecosystem. The temporal and spatial variability in zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled largely by predation pressure. In the southeastern Barents Sea, statistically significant linkages were observed between chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass, as well as between net primary production and fish biomass, indicating bottom-up trophic interactions in this region.

Decadal changes in zooplankton of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf

The abundance of the subarctic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, and temperate, shelf copepod, Centropages typicus, was estimated from samples collected bi-monthly over the Northeast U.S. continental shelf (NEUS) from 1977–2010. Latitudinal variation in long term trends and seasonal patterns for the two copepod species were examined for four sub-regions: the Gulf of Maine (GOM), Georges Bank (GB), Southern New England (SNE), and Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). Results suggested that there was significant difference in long term variation between northern region (GOM and GB), and the MAB for both species. C. finmarchicus generally peaked in May – June throughout the entire study region and Cen. typicus had a more complex seasonal pattern. Time series analysis revealed that the peak time for Cen. typicus switched from November – December to January - March after 1985 in the MAB. The long term abundance of C. finmarchicus showed more fluctuation in the MAB than the GOM and GB, whereas the long term abundance of Cen. typicus was more variable in the GB than other sub-regions. Alongshore transport was significantly correlated with the abundance of C. finmarchicus, i.e., more water from north, higher abundance for C. finmarchicus. The abundance of Cen. typicus showed positive relationship with the Gulf Stream north wall index (GSNWI) in the GOM and GB, but the GSNWI only explained 12–15% of variation in Cen. typicus abundance. In general, the alongshore current was negatively correlated with the GSNWI, suggesting that Cen. typicus is more abundant when advection from the north is less. However, the relationship between Cen. typicus and alongshore transport was not significant. The present study highlights the importance of spatial scales in the study of marine populations: observed long term changes in the northern region were different from the south for both species.

Bottom-up regulation of capelin, a keystone forage species

The Northwest Atlantic marine ecosystem off Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, has been commercially exploited for centuries. Although periodic declines in various important commercial fish stocks have been observed in this ecosystem, the most drastic changes took place in the early 1990s when the ecosystem structure changed abruptly and has not returned to its previous configuration. In the Northwest Atlantic, food web dynamics are determined largely by capelin (Mallotus villosus), the focal forage species which links primary and secondary producers with the higher trophic levels. Notwithstanding the importance of capelin, the factors that influence its population dynamics have remained elusive. We found that a regime shift and ocean climate, acting via food availability, have discernible impacts on the regulation of this population. Capelin biomass and timing of spawning were well explained by a regime shift and seasonal sea ice dynamics, a key determinant of the pelagic spring bloom. Our findings are important for the development of ecosystem approaches to fisheries management and raise questions on the potential impacts of climate change on the structure and productivity of this marine ecosystem.

Changes in the distribution of atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the Gulf of Maine 1979-2005

The Gulf of Maine, NW Atlantic Ocean, is a productive, seasonal foraging ground for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus), but commercial landings of adult size classes were up to 40% below the allocated total allowable catch between 2004 to 2008 for the rod and reel, harpoon, and purse seine categories in the Gulf of Maine. Reduction in Atlantic bluefin tuna catches in the Gulf of Maine could represent a decline in spawning stock biomass, but given wide-ranging, complex migration patterns, and high energetic requirements, an alternative hypothesis is that their dispersal patterns shifted to regions with higher prey abundance or profitability, reducing availability to U.S. fishing fleets. This study fit generalized linear models to Atlantic bluefin tuna landings data collected from fishermen's logbooks (1979-2005) as well as the distances between bluefin tuna schools and Atlantic herring (Clupeaharengus), a primary prey species, to test alternative hypotheses for observed shifts in Atlantic bluefin tuna availability in the Gulf of Maine. For the bluefin model, landings varied by day of year, latitude and longitude. The effect of latitude differed by day of year and the effect of longitude differed by year. The distances between Atlantic bluefin tuna schools and Atlantic herring schools were significantly smaller (p<0.05) than would be expected from a randomly distributed population. A time series of average bluefin tuna school positions was positively correlated with the average number of herring captured per tow on Georges Bank in spring and autumn surveys respectively (p<0.01, r(2)=0.24, p<0.01, r(2)=0.42). Fishermen's logbooks contributed novel spatial and temporal information towards testing these hypotheses for the bluefin tuna fishery.

Using hierarchical bayes to understand movement, health, and survival in the endangered north atlantic right whale

Body condition is an indicator of health, and it plays a key role in many vital processes for mammalian species. While evidence of individual body condition can be obtained, these observations provide just brief glimpses into the health state of the animal. An analytical framework is needed for understanding how health of animals changes over space and time.Through knowledge of individual health we can better understand the status of populations. This is particularly important in endangered species, where the consequences of disruption of critical biological functions can push groups of animals rapidly toward extinction. Here we built a state-space model that provides estimates of movement, health, and survival. We assimilated 30+ years of photographic evidence of body condition and three additional visual health parameters in individual North Atlantic right whales, together with survey data, to infer the true health status as it changes over space and time. We also included the effect of reproductive status and entanglement status on health. At the population level, we estimated differential movement patterns in males and females. At the individual level, we estimated the likely animal locations each month. We estimated the relationship between observed and latent health status. Observations of body condition, skin condition, cyamid infestation on the blowholes, and rake marks all provided measures of the true underlying health. The resulting time series of individual health highlight both normal variations in health status and how anthropogenic stressors can affect the health and, ultimately, the survival of individuals. This modeling approach provides information for monitoring of health in right whales, as well as a framework for integrating observational data at the level of individuals up through the health status of the population. This framework can be broadly applied to a variety of systems – terrestrial and marine – where sporadic observations of individuals exist.

Tipping points in the arctic: eyeballing or statistical significance?

Arctic ecosystems have experienced and are projected to experience continued large increases in temperature and declines in sea ice cover. It has been hypothesized that small changes in ecosystem drivers can fundamentally alter ecosystem functioning, and that this might be particularly pronounced for Arctic ecosystems. We present a suite of simple statistical analyses to identify changes in the statistical properties of data, emphasizing that changes in the standard error should be considered in addition to changes in mean properties. The methods are exemplified using sea ice extent, and suggest that the loss rate of sea ice accelerated by factor of ~5 in 1996, as reported in other studies, but increases in random fluctuations, as an early warning signal, were observed already in 1990. We recommend to employ the proposed methods more systematically for analyzing tipping points to document effects of climate change in the Arctic.

A critical review on the improvement of photosynthetic carbon assimilation in C3 plants using genetic engineering

Global warming is one of the most serious challenges facing us today. It may be linked to the increase in atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), leading to a rise in sea level, notable shifts in ecosystems, and in the frequency and intensity of wild fires. There is a strong interest in stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other GHGs by decreasing carbon emission and/or increasing carbon sequestration. Biotic sequestration is an important and effective strategy to mitigate the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations by increasing carbon sequestration and storage capacity of ecosystems using plant photosynthesis and by decreasing carbon emission using biofuel rather than fossil fuel. Improvement of photosynthetic carbon assimilation, using transgenic engineering, potentially provides a set of available and effective tools for enhancing plant carbon sequestration. In this review, firstly different biological methods of CO2 assimilation in C3, C4 and CAM plants are introduced and three types of C4 pathways which have high photosynthetic performance and have evolved as CO2 pumps are briefly summarized. Then (i) the improvement of photosynthetic carbon assimilation of C3 plants by transgenic engineering using non-C4 genes, and (ii) the overexpression of individual or multiple C4 cycle photosynthetic genes (PEPC, PPDK, PCK, NADP-ME and NADP-MDH) in transgenic C3 plants (e.g. tobacco, potato, rice and Arabidopsis) are highlighted. Some transgenic C3 plants (e.g. tobacco, rice and Arabidopsis) overexpressing the FBP/SBPase, ictB and cytochrome c6 genes showed positive effects on photosynthetic efficiency and growth characteristics. However, over the last 28 years, efforts to overexpress individual, double or multiple C4 enzymes in C3 plants like tobacco, potato, rice, and Arabidopsis have produced mixed results that do not confirm or eliminate the possibility of improving photosynthesis of C3 plants by this approach. Finally, a prospect is provided on the challenges of enhancing carbon assimilation of C3 plants using transgenic engineering in the face of global warming, and the trends of the most promising approaches to improving the photosynthetic performance of C3 plants.

Biodiversity and ecosystem function in the Gulf of Maine: pattern and role of zooplankton and pelagic nekton

This paper forms part of a broader overview of biodiversity of marine life in the Gulf of Maine area (GoMA), facilitated by the GoMA Census of Marine Life program. It synthesizes current data on species diversity of zooplankton and pelagic nekton, including compilation of observed species and descriptions of seasonal, regional and cross-shelf diversity patterns. Zooplankton diversity in the GoMA is characterized by spatial differences in community composition among the neritic environment, the coastal shelf, and deep offshore waters. Copepod diversity increased with depth on the Scotian Shelf. On the coastal shelf of the western Gulf of Maine, the number of higher-level taxonomic groups declined with distance from shore, reflecting more nearshore meroplankton. Copepod diversity increased in late summer, and interdecadal diversity shifts were observed, including a period of higher diversity in the 1990s. Changes in species diversity were greatest on interannual scales, intermediate on seasonal scales, and smallest across regions, in contrast to abundance patterns, suggesting that zooplankton diversity may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem response to inter annual climate variation than zoo plankton abundance. Local factors such as bathymetry, proximity of the coast, and advection probably drive zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity patterns in the GoMA, while ocean-basin scale diversity patterns probably contribute to the increase in diversity at the Scotian Shelf break, a zone of mixing between the cold-temperate community of the shelf and the warm-water community offshore. Pressing research needs include establishment of a comprehensive system for observing change in zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity, enhanced observations of "underknown" but important functional components of the ecosystem, population and metapopulation studies, and development of analytical modeling tools to enhance understanding of diversity patterns and drivers. Ultimately, sustained observations and modeling analysis of biodiversity must be effectively communicated to managers and incorporated into ecosystem approaches for management of GoMA living marine resources.

The impact of whaling on the ocean carbon cycle: why bigger was better

Background

Humans have reduced the abundance of many large marine vertebrates, including whales, large fish, and sharks, to only a small percentage of their pre-exploitation levels. Industrial fishing and whaling also tended to preferentially harvest the largest species and largest individuals within a population. We consider the consequences of removing these animals on the ocean's ability to store carbon.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Because body size is critical to our arguments, our analysis focuses on populations of baleen whales. Using reconstructions of pre-whaling and modern abundances, we consider the impact of whaling on the amount of carbon stored in living whales and on the amount of carbon exported to the deep sea by sinking whale carcasses. Populations of large baleen whales now store 9.1×10⁶ tons less carbon than before whaling. Some of the lost storage has been offset by increases in smaller competitors; however, due to the relative metabolic efficiency of larger organisms, a shift toward smaller animals could decrease the total community biomass by 30% or more. Because of their large size and few predators, whales and other large marine vertebrates can efficiently export carbon from the surface waters to the deep sea. We estimate that rebuilding whale populations would remove 1.6×10⁵ tons of carbon each year through sinking whale carcasses.

Conclusions/Significance

Even though fish and whales are only a small portion of the ocean's overall biomass, fishing and whaling have altered the ocean's ability to store and sequester carbon. Although these changes are small relative to the total ocean carbon sink, rebuilding populations of fish and whales would be comparable to other carbon management schemes, including ocean iron fertilization.

An overview of marine biodiversity in United States waters

Marine biodiversity of the United States (U.S.) is extensively documented, but data assembled by the United States National Committee for the Census of Marine Life demonstrate that even the most complete taxonomic inventories are based on records scattered in space and time. The best-known taxa are those of commercial importance. Body size is directly correlated with knowledge of a species, and knowledge also diminishes with distance from shore and depth. Measures of biodiversity other than species diversity, such as ecosystem and genetic diversity, are poorly documented. Threats to marine biodiversity in the U.S. are the same as those for most of the world: overexploitation of living resources; reduced water quality; coastal development; shipping; invasive species; rising temperature and concentrations of carbon dioxide in the surface ocean, and other changes that may be consequences of global change, including shifting currents; increased number and size of hypoxic or anoxic areas; and increased number and duration of harmful algal blooms. More information must be obtained through field and laboratory research and monitoring that involve innovative sampling techniques (such as genetics and acoustics), but data that already exist must be made accessible. And all data must have a temporal component so trends can be identified. As data are compiled, techniques must be developed to make certain that scales are compatible, to combine and reconcile data collected for various purposes with disparate gear, and to automate taxonomic changes. Information on biotic and abiotic elements of the environment must be interactively linked. Impediments to assembling existing data and collecting new data on marine biodiversity include logistical problems as well as shortages in finances and taxonomic expertise.

Decline in top predator body size and changing climate alter trophic structure in an oceanic ecosystem

Globally, overfishing large-bodied groundfish populations has resulted in substantial increases in their prey populations. Where it has been examined, the effects of overfishing have cascaded down the food chain. In an intensively fished area on the western Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic, the biomass of prey species increased exponentially (doubling time of 11 years) even though the aggregate biomass of their predators remained stable over 38 years. Concomitant reductions in herbivorous zooplankton and increases in phytoplankton were also evident. This anomalous trophic pattern led us to examine how declines in predator body size (approx. 60% in body mass since the early 1970s) and climatic regime influenced lower trophic levels. The increase in prey biomass was associated primarily with declines in predator body size and secondarily to an increase in stratification. Sea surface temperature and predator biomass had no influence. A regression model explained 65 per cent of prey biomass variability. Trait-mediated effects, namely a reduction in predator size, resulted in a weakening of top predation pressure. Increased stratification may have enhanced growing conditions for prey fish. Size-selective harvesting under changing climatic conditions initiated a trophic restructuring of the food chain, the effects of which may have influenced three trophic levels.

Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

Basin-scale coherence in phenology of shrimps and phytoplankton in the North Atlantic Ocean

Climate change could lead to mismatches between the reproductive cycles of marine organisms and their planktonic food. We tested this hypothesis by comparing shrimp (Pandalus borealis) egg hatching times and satellite-derived phytoplankton bloom dynamics throughout the North Atlantic. At large spatial and long temporal (10 years or longer) scales, hatching was correlated with the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom. Annual egg development and hatching times were determined locally by bottom water temperature. We conclude that different populations of P. borealis have adapted to local temperatures and bloom timing, matching egg hatching to food availability under average conditions. This strategy is vulnerable to interannual oceanographic variability and long-term climatic changes.

Influence of environmental changes in the north-western Atlantic Ocean on a parasite, Echinorhynchus gadi (Acanthocephala) of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) occurring off coastal Labrador, Canada

A study was conducted to determine the influence of environmental change on an endoparasite, Echinorhynchus gadi (Acanthocephala) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) over a 30-year period off the coast of Labrador in the north-western Atlantic, North Atlantic Fisheries Organization subareas 2J-3K. Cod, once an abundant fish species that had been commercially exploited for many decades, declined precipitously during the mid-1980s onwards. This decline was attributed to climatic changes that affected the entire food chain from zooplankton to fish, sea birds and marine mammals. A monitoring programme was introduced, sampling cod by otter trawling using research vessels. The fish, after capture, were frozen at - 20 degrees C, subsequently thawed and the digestive tract removed and examined for the parasite in 2006. Data from samples taken in 1976, 1980-81, 1986, 1990, 2000 and 2003 were compared statistically with those collected in 2006. The results indicate a decline in the prevalence and mean abundance of E. gadi in 1986 with a minimum in 2000 but increasing gradually in 2003 and 2006. These changes were coincident initially with a decline of oceanic temperature and the entire food web, including capelin (Mallotus villosus), a preferred prey of cod and primary source of E. gadi. The increase in prevalence and mean abundance of the parasite in 2006 were associated with an increase of oceanic temperature and the return of small schools of capelin to offshore areas. Cod older than 4 years harboured a greater abundance of E. gadi than younger fish, while no difference was observed between the sexes. The results suggest that the abundance of E. gadi can be useful as a bioindicator of environmental changes in the north-western Atlantic.

Divergence with gene flow between Ponto-Caspian refugia in an anadromous cyprinid Rutilus frisii revealed by multiple gene phylogeography

The Black and Caspian Seas have experienced alternating periods of isolation and interconnection over many Milankovitch climate oscillations and most recently became separated when the meltwater overflow from the Caspian Sea ceased at the end of the last glaciation. Climate-induced habitat changes have indisputably had profound impacts on distribution and demography of aquatic species, yet uncertainties remain about the relative roles of isolation and dispersal in the response of species shared between the Black and Caspian Sea basins. We examined these issues using phylogeographical analysis of an anadromous cyprinid fish Rutilus frisii. Bayesian coalescence analyses of sequence variation at two nuclear and one mitochondrial genes suggest that the Black and Caspian Seas supported separate populations of R. frisii during the last glaciation. Parameter estimates from the fitted isolation-with-migration model showed that their separation was not complete, however, and that the two populations continued to exchange genes in both directions. These analyses also suggested that majority of migrations occurred during the Pleistocene, showing that the variation shared between the Black and Caspian Seas is the result of ancient dispersal along the temporary natural connections between the basins, rather than of incomplete lineage sorting or recent human-mediated dispersal. Gene flow between the refugial populations was therefore an important source of genetic variation, and we suggest that it facilitated the evolutionary response of the populations to changing climate.

Carbon sequestration

Developing technologies to reduce the rate of increase of atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) from annual emissions of 8.6PgCyr-1 from energy, process industry, land-use conversion and soil cultivation is an important issue of the twenty-first century. Of the three options of reducing the global energy use, developing low or no-carbon fuel and sequestering emissions, this manuscript describes processes for carbon (CO2) sequestration and discusses abiotic and biotic technologies. Carbon sequestration implies transfer of atmospheric CO2 into other long-lived global pools including oceanic, pedologic, biotic and geological strata to reduce the net rate of increase in atmospheric CO2. Engineering techniques of CO2 injection in deep ocean, geological strata, old coal mines and oil wells, and saline aquifers along with mineral carbonation of CO2 constitute abiotic techniques. These techniques have a large potential of thousands of Pg, are expensive, have leakage risks and may be available for routine use by 2025 and beyond. In comparison, biotic techniques are natural and cost-effective processes, have numerous ancillary benefits, are immediately applicable but have finite sink capacity. Biotic and abiotic C sequestration options have specific nitches, are complementary, and have potential to mitigate the climate change risks.

Oscillating trophic control induces community reorganization in a marine ecosystem

Understanding how climate regulates trophic control may help to elucidate the causes of transitions between alternate ecosystem states following climate regime shifts. We used a 34-year time series of the abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and five prey species to show that the nature of trophic control in a North Pacific ecosystem depends on climate state. Rapid warming in the 1970s caused an oscillation between bottom-up and top-down control. This shift to top-down control apparently contributed to the transition from an initial, prey-rich ecosystem state to the final, prey-poor state. However, top-down control could not be detected in the final state without reference to the initial state and transition period. Complete understanding of trophic control in ecosystems capable of transitions between alternate states may therefore require observations spanning more than one state.