Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Contrasting range changes and drivers of four forest foundation species under future climate change in China

Forest foundation species, vital for shaping community structure and dynamics through non-trophic level interactions, are key to forest succession and sustainability. Despite their ecological importance, the habitat ranges of these species in China and their responses to future climate change remain unclear. Our study employed the optimal MaxEnt model to assess the range shifts and their essential drivers of four typical forest foundation species from three climatic zones in China under climate scenarios, including Acer tegmentosum, Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (temperate zone), Quercus glandulifera (subtropical zone), and Ficus hispida (tropical zone). The optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC values > 0.90) for the four foundation species, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, we observed that A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum are predominantly inhabited temperate forest areas in northeastern China, Q. glandulifera is primarily concentrated in subtropical forests in southeastern China, and F. hispida is mainly distributed across the tropical forests in southern China. Climate factors, particularly temperature, emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the potential range of forest foundation species. Moreover, precipitation strongly influenced the potential range of A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum, while elevation exhibited a greater impact on the range of Q. glandulifera and F. hispida. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas for A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum tend to expand southward, F. hispida tends to expand northward, while Q. glandulifera exhibited a tendency to contract towards the center. This study advances our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest foundation species in China under climate change, providing critical insights for conservation efforts and sustainable forest management practices.

Microplastics in Arctic waters of the Finnish Sámi area

We explored the presence of microplastics in the Finnish Arctic Sámi home area. A dialogue between Indigenous knowledge and scientific field work produced data about microplastics in remote wilderness aquatic ecosystems. Methods included geographical Indigenous knowledge analysis, water sampling with fraction filtration, and imaging Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The MPs found were small; the mean particle size was 126 ± 121 μm. Particle concentrations of MPs in freshwater and marine samples varied between 45 and 423 MPs m-3 and the most common polymer types were polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyethylene terephthalate. In conclusion, because microplastics are present even in the wilderness areas, their abundance should be monitored to assess plastic pollution in the relatively pristine Arctic environments. Sámi Indigenous knowledge proved to be a beneficial and important initiator, because locals recognize the possible sources and transport pathways of plastic litter, and practical sampling sites in the complex freshwater systems of the area.

Identifying protected areas in biodiversity hotspots at risk from climate and human-induced compound events for conserving threatened species

Anthropogenic pressure in areas of biodiversity importance erodes the integrity of the ecosystems they harbour, making features of biodiversity less buffered against extreme climatic events. We define the combination of these disturbances as compound events. We assessed compound event risk in protected areas (PAs) applying a spatial framework guided by criteria and quantitative thresholds associated with exposure to cyclones, drought, and intense human pressure. This assessment was used in a relational matrix to classify PAs with different risk of compound event occurrence. We identified PAs of higher conservation concern by quantifying the extent of human pressure in their surrounding landscape while harbouring large numbers of threatened vertebrate species. Of the 39,694 PAs assessed, very high risk of compound events was determined for 6965 PAs (17.5 %) related to cyclones and human pressure (mainly island hotspots), 6367 PAs (16 %) related to droughts and human pressure (island and continental hotspots), and 2031 PAs (5 %) to cyclones, drought and human pressure (mainly in island hotspots). From the subset of 2031 PAs assessed at very high risk, we identified 239 PAs of higher conservation concern distributed predominantly in the Caribbean Islands, Japan, North America Coastal Plain, Philippines, and Southwest Australia. Our work highlights PAs in the biodiversity hotspots where high risk of compound event occurrence poses a greater threat to species. We encourage researchers to adapt and apply this framework across other globally significant sites for conserving biodiversity to identify high risk-prone areas, and prevent further biodiversity decline.

Greenhouse gases emissions and global climate change: Examining the influence of CO2, CH4, and N2O

An in-depth analysis of the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in climate change is examined here along with their diverse sources, including the combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture, and industrial processes. Key GHG components such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are considered, along with data on emissions across various economic sectors. The consequences of climate change are also highlighted, ranging from more frequent and intense extreme weather events to rising sea levels and impacts on ecosystems and human health. The industrial revolution and unrestricted use of fossil fuels are key factors leading to an increase in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Global efforts to reduce emissions are considered, starting with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and culminating in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The limited effectiveness of early initiatives is underscored, emphasizing the significant importance of the Paris Agreement that provides a global framework for establishing goals to reduce GHG emissions by country. The Green Climate Fund and other international financial mechanisms are also considered as essential tools for financing sustainable projects in developing countries. The global community faces the challenge and necessity for more ambitious efforts to achieve the set goals for reducing GHG emissions. Successful strategies are examined by Sweden, Costa Rica, and Denmark to achieve zero GHG emissions that integrate renewable energy sources and technologies. The importance of global cooperation for creating a sustainable future is also emphasized.

Vegetation redistribution is predicted to intensify soil organic carbon loss under future climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau

Vegetation redistribution may bring unexpected climate-soil carbon cycling in terrestrial biomes. However, whether and how vegetation redistribution alters the soil carbon pool under climate change is still poorly understood on the Tibetan Plateau. Here, we applied the G-Range model to simulate the cover of herbs, shrubs and trees, net primary productivity (NPP) and soil organic carbon density (SOCD) at the depth of 60 cm on Tibetan Plateau for the individual years 2020 and 2060, using climate projection for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with the RegCM4.6 model system. Vegetation redistribution was defined as the transitions in bare ground, herbs, shrubs and trees between 2020 and 2060, with approximately 57.9 % (RCP4.5) and 59 % (RCP8.5) of the area will redistribute vegetation over the whole Tibetan Plateau. The vegetation cover will increase by about 2.4 % (RCP4.5) and 1.9 % (RCP8.5), while the NPP and SOCD will decrease by about -14.3 g C m-2 yr-1 and -907 g C m-2 (RCP4.5), and -1.8 g C m-2 yr-1and -920 g C m-2 (RCP8.5). Shrubs and trees will expand in the east, and herbs will expand in the northwest part of the Plateau. These areas are projected to be hotspots with greater SOCD reduction in response to future climate change, and will include lower net plant carbon input due to the negative NPP. Our study indicates that the SOC pool will become a carbon source under increased air temperature and rainfall on the Tibetan Plateau by 2060, especially for the area with vegetation redistribution. These results revealed the potential risk of vegetation redistribution under climate change in alpine ecosystems, indicating the policymakers need to pay attention on the vegetation redistribution to mitigate the soil carbon emission and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality on the Tibetan Plateau.

Suitable habitat shifts and ecological niche overlay assessments among benthic Oplegnathus species in response to climate change

Climate change has had a significant impact on many marine organisms. To investigate the effects of environmental changes on deep-water benthic fishes, we selected the genus Oplegnathus and applied species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling. From the last glacial maximum to the present, the three Oplegnathus species (O. conwayi, O. robinsoni, and O. peaolopesi) distributed in the Cape of Good Hope region of southern Africa experienced fitness zone fluctuations of 39.9%, 13%, and 5.7%, respectively. In contrast, O. fasciatus and O. punctatus, which were primarily distributed in the western Pacific Ocean, had fitness zone fluctuations of -6.5% and 11.7%, respectively. Neither the O. insignis nor the O. woodward varied by more than 5% over the period. Under future environmental conditions, the range of variation in fitness zones for the three southern African Oplegnathus species was expected to be between -30.8% and -26.5%, while the range of variation in fitness zones for the two western Pacific stonefish species was expected to remain below 13%. In addition, the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. insignis was projected to be between -2.3% and 7.1%, and the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. woodward is projected to be between -5.7% and -2%. The results indicated that O. fasciatus and O. punctatus had a wide distribution and high expansion potential, while Oplegnathus species might have originated in western Pacific waters. Our results showed that benthic fishes were highly adaptable to extreme environments, such as the last glacial maximum. The high ecological niche overlap between Oplegnathus species in the same region suggested that they competed with each other. Future research could explore the impacts of environmental change on marine organisms and make conservation and management recommendations.

Unravelling consumer acceptance of local food: Physical versus social distance and the important role of social identification

Including more locally grown products in our diet is a way to reduce our diets' environmental impact. Therefore, it is important to investigate how this can be effectively communicated on food products to increase consumer acceptance. We propose that product communication that focuses on decreasing the physical and social distance between the food producer and the consumer can result in consumers identifying more with the food producer, which, in turn, can increase the buying intention of food products. The current research comprises an online survey that includes an experimental design and a real-life assessment among 825 Dutch participants. Results of the experiment show that decreasing physical distance, but not social distance, increases consumers' intention to buy a food product. This effect can be explained by increased feelings of identification with a food producer. Moreover, the real-life assessment provides a first indication that both having a food producer living close by (physical distance) and personally knowing a food producer (social distance) might increase acceptance of the producer and the product, and highlights the relevance of perceived connection. These findings give insights into how food producers can market local food products to increase acceptance; communication on a decreased distance between consumers and the food producer is only effective when it results in more identification with the food producer. Perceived connection seems to be an essential part of the acceptance of local products.

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Can large-scale tree planting in China compensate for the loss of climate connectivity due to deforestation?

Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China's forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China's large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.

Kelp holdfast microclimates buffer invertebrate inhabitants from extreme temperatures

Climate change is altering environmental conditions, with microclimates providing small-scale refuges within otherwise challenging environments. Durvillaea (southern bull kelp; rimurapa) is a genus of large intertidal fucoid algae, and some species harbour diverse invertebrate communities in their holdfasts. We hypothesised that animal-excavated Durvillaea holdfasts provide a thermal refuge for epibiont species, and tested this hypothesis using the exemplar species D. poha. Using a southern Aotearoa New Zealand population as a case-study, we found extreme temperatures outside the holdfast were 4.4 °C higher in summer and 6.9 °C lower in winter than inside the holdfast. A microclimate model of the holdfasts was built and used to forecast microclimates under 2100 conditions. Temperatures are predicted to increase by 2-3 °C, which may exceed the tolerances of D. poha. However, if D. poha or a similar congeneric persists, temperatures inside holdfasts will remain less extreme than the external environment. The thermal tolerances of two Durvillaea-associated invertebrates, the trochid gastropod Cantharidus antipodum and the amphipod Parawaldeckia kidderi, were also assessed; C. antipodum, but not P. kidderi, displayed metabolic depression at temperatures above and below those inside holdfasts, suggesting that they would be vulnerable outside the holdfast and with future warming. Microclimates, such as those within D. poha holdfasts or holdfasts of similar species, will therefore be important refuges for the survival of species both at the northern (retreating edge) and southern (expanding edge) limits of their distributions.

Long-term changes in autumn-winter harvest distributions vary among duck species, months, and subpopulations

Our aim was to describe shifts in autumn and winter harvest distributions of three species of dabbling ducks (blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) in the Central and Mississippi flyways of North America during 1960-2019. We measured shifts in band recovery distributions corrected for changes in hunting season dates and zones by using kernel density estimators to calculate 10 distributional metrics. We then assessed interannual and intraspecific variation by comparing species-specific changes in distributional metrics for 4 months (October-January) and three geographically based subpopulations. During 1960-2019, band recovery distributions shifted west- and southwards (blue-winged teal) or east- and northwards (mallard and northern pintail) by one hundred to several hundred kilometers. For all three species, the broad (95% isopleth) and core distributions (50% isopleth) showed widespread decreases in overlap and increases in relative area compared to a 1960-1979 baseline period. Shifts in band recovery distributions varied by month, with southward shifts for blue-winged teal most pronounced in October and northward shifts for mallard and northern pintail greatest during December and January. Finally, distributional metric response varied considerably among mallard subpopulations, including 2-4-fold differences in longitude, latitude, and overlap, whereas differences among subpopulations were minimal for blue-winged teal and northern pintail. Our findings support the popular notion that winter (December-January) distributions of duck species have shifted north; however, the extent and direction of distributional changes vary among species and subpopulations. Long-term distributional changes are therefore complex and summarizing shifts across species, months, or subpopulations could mask underlying finer-scale patterns that are important to habitat conservation and population management. A detailed understanding of how species distributions have changed over time will help quantify important drivers of species occurrence, identify habitat management options, and could inform decisions on where to focus conservation or restoration efforts.

Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches

The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (~49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower-yet still alarming-rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.

Legacies of millennial-scale climate oscillations in contemporary biodiversity in eastern North America

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Future changes in society and climate may strongly shape wild large-herbivore faunas across Europe

Restoring wild communities of large herbivores is critical for the conservation of biodiverse ecosystems, but environmental changes in the twenty-first century could drastically affect the availability of habitats. We projected future habitat dynamics for 18 wild large herbivores in Europe and the relative future potential patterns of species richness and assemblage mean body weight considering four alternative scenarios of socioeconomic development in human society and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5). Under SSP1-RCP2.6, corresponding to a transition towards sustainable development, we found stable habitat suitability for most species and overall stable assemblage mean body weight compared to the present, with an average increase in species richness (in 2100: 3.03 ± 1.55 compared to today's 2.25 ± 1.31 species/area). The other scenarios are generally unfavourable for the conservation of wild large herbivores, although under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario there would be increase in species richness and assemblage mean body weight in some southern regions (e.g. + 62.86 kg mean body weight in Balkans/Greece). Our results suggest that a shift towards a sustainable socioeconomic development would overall provide the best prospect of our maintaining or even increasing the diversity of wild herbivore assemblages in Europe, thereby promoting trophic complexity and the potential to restore functioning and self-regulating ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and United States (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey between the 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and the USA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Limits on the evolutionary rates of biological traits

This paper focuses on the maximum speed at which biological evolution can occur. I derive inequalities that limit the rate of evolutionary processes driven by natural selection, mutations, or genetic drift. These rate limits link the variability in a population to evolutionary rates. In particular, high variances in the fitness of a population and of a quantitative trait allow for fast changes in the trait's average. In contrast, low variability makes a trait less susceptible to random changes due to genetic drift. The results in this article generalize Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection to dynamics that allow for mutations and genetic drift, via trade-off relations that constrain the evolutionary rates of arbitrary traits. The rate limits can be used to probe questions in various evolutionary biology and ecology settings. They apply, for instance, to trait dynamics within or across species or to the evolution of bacteria strains. They apply to any quantitative trait, e.g., from species' weights to the lengths of DNA strands.

Microrefugia and microclimate: Unraveling decoupling potential and resistance to heatwaves

Microrefugia, defined as small areas maintaining populations of species outside their range margins during environmental extremes, are increasingly recognized for their role in conserving species in the face of climate change. Understanding their microclimatic dynamics becomes crucial with global warming leading to severe temperature and precipitation changes. This study investigates the phenomenon of short-term climatic decoupling within microrefugia and its implications for plant persistence in the Mediterranean region of southeastern France. We focus on microrefugia's ability to climatically disconnect from macroclimatic trends, examining temperature and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) dynamics in microrefugia, adjacent control plots, and weather stations. Our study encompasses both "normal" conditions and heatwave episodes to explore the role of microrefugia as thermal and moisture insulators during extreme events. Landscape attributes such as relative elevation, solar radiation, distance to streams, and vegetation height are investigated for their contribution to short-term decoupling. Our results demonstrate that microrefugia exhibit notable decoupling from macroclimatic trends. This effect is maintained during heatwaves, underscoring microrefugia's vital role in responding to climatic extremes. Importantly, microrefugia maintain lower VPD levels than their surroundings outside and during heatwaves, potentially mitigating water stress for plants. This study advances our understanding of microclimate dynamics within microrefugia and underscores their ecological importance for plant persistence in a changing climate. As heatwaves become more frequent and severe, our findings provide insights into the role of microrefugia in buffering but also decoupling against extreme climatic events and, more generally, against climate warming. This knowledge emphasizes the need to detect and protect existing microrefugia, as they can be integrated into conservation strategies and climate change adaptation plans.

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

Research on aquatic microcosm: Bibliometric analysis, toxicity comparison and model prediction

Recently, aquatic microcosms have attracted considerable attention because they can be used to simulate natural aquatic ecosystems. First, to evaluate the development of trends, hotspots, and national cooperation networks in the field, bibliometric analysis was performed based on 1841 articles on aquatic microcosm (1962-2022). The results of the bibliometric analysis can be categorized as follows: (1) Aquatic microcosm research can be summarized in two sections, with the first part focusing on the ecological processes and services of aquatic ecosystems, and the second focusing on the toxicity and degradation of pollutants. (2) The United States (number of publications: 541, proportion: 29.5%) and China (248, 13.5%) are the two most active countries. Second, to determine whether there is a difference between single-species and microcosm tests, that is, to perform different-tier assessments, the recommended aquatic safety thresholds in risk assessment [i.e., the community-level no effect concentration (NOECcommunity), hazardous concentrations for 5% of species (HC5) and predicted no effect concentration (PNEC)] were compared based on these tests. There was a significant difference between the NOECcommunity and HC5 (P < 0.05). Moreover, regression models predicting microcosm toxicity values were constructed to provide a reference for ecological systemic risk assessments based on aquatic microcosms.

Deciphering mycobiota and its functional dynamics in root hairs of Rhododendron campanulatum D. Don through Next-gen sequencing

The Himalayas provide unique opportunities for the extension of shrubs beyond the upper limit of the tree. However, little is known about the limitation of the biotic factors belowground of shrub growth at these cruising altitudes. To fill this gap, the present study deals with the documentation of root-associated microbiota with their predicted functional profiles and interactions in the host Rhododendron campanulatum, a krummholz species. While processing 12 root samples of R. campanulatum from the sites using Omics we could identify 134 root-associated fungal species belonging to 104 genera, 74 families, 39 orders, 17 classes, and 5 phyla. The root-associated microbiota members of Ascomycota were unambiguously dominant followed by Basidiomycota. Using FUNGuild, we reported that symbiotroph and pathotroph as abundant trophic modes. Furthermore, FUNGuild revealed the dominant prevalence of the saptroptroph guild followed by plant pathogens and wood saprotrophs. Alpha diversity was significantly different at the sites. The heatmap dendrogram showed the correlation between various soil nutrients and some fungal species. The study paves the way for a more in-depth exploration of unidentified root fungal symbionts, their interactions and their probable functional roles, which may serve as an important factor for the growth and conservation of these high-altitude ericaceous plants.

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

Selective sweep probabilities in spatially expanding populations

Evolution during range expansions shapes biological systems from microbial communities and tumours up to invasive species. A fundamental question is whether, when a beneficial mutation arises during a range expansion, it will evade clonal interference and sweep through the population to fixation. However, most theoretical investigations of range expansions have been confined to regimes in which selective sweeps are effectively impossible, while studies of selective sweeps have either assumed constant population size or have ignored spatial structure. Here we use mathematical modelling and analysis to investigate selective sweep probabilities in the alternative yet biologically relevant scenario in which mutants can outcompete and displace a slowly spreading wildtype. Assuming constant radial expansion speed, we derive probability distributions for the arrival time and location of the first surviving mutant and hence find surprisingly simple approximate and exact expressions for selective sweep probabilities in one, two and three dimensions, which are independent of mutation rate. Namely, the selective sweep probability is approximately 1 - c w t / c m d , where c w t and c m are the wildtype and mutant radial expansion speeds, and d the spatial dimension. Using agent-based simulations, we show that our analytical results accurately predict selective sweep frequencies in the two-dimensional spatial Moran process. We further compare our results with those obtained for alternative growth laws. Parameterizing our model for human tumours, we find that selective sweeps are predicted to be rare except during very early solid tumour growth, thus providing a general, pan-cancer explanation for findings from recent sequencing studies.

Multiple scale assessment of habitat, landscape, and geographic-specific attributes driving decapod assemblages in Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows

Seagrass meadows are biodiversity hotspots for invertebrate species including decapods. Understanding the drivers of species abundance, richness and diversity of decapod assemblages is crucial for the conservation of such hotspots, but how drivers act across multiple spatial scales remains unexplored. Here we describe the decapod assemblages of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows and assess the influence of attributes from three increasing spatial scales (habitat, landscape, and geographical levels) on the assemblages' structure and composition, as well as the variability partitioning among each one of these levels. Overall, geographical level attributes (i.e., inlet aperture, confinement) affected the most the decapod assemblages, while we only found a modest contribution from habitat (e.g., detritus biomass, sediment organic matter) and landscape attributes (e.g., fragmentation). We suggest that decapod assemblages are driven by the interaction of multiple processes occurring at different scales and other highly stochastic phenomena such as larval dispersion and recruitment.

Vrba was right: Historical climate fragmentation, and not current climate, explains mammal biogeography

Climate plays a crucial role in shaping species distribution and evolution over time. Dr Vrba's Resource-Use hypothesis posited that zones at the extremes of temperature and precipitation conditions should host a greater number of climate specialist species than other zones because of higher historical fragmentation. Here, we tested this hypothesis by examining climate-induced fragmentation over the past 5 million years. Our findings revealed that, as stated by Vrba, the number of climate specialist species increases with historical regional climate fragmentation, whereas climate generalist species richness decreases. This relationship is approximately 40% stronger than the correlation between current climate and species richness for climate specialist species and 77% stronger for generalist species. These evidences suggest that the effect of climate historical fragmentation is more significant than that of current climate conditions in explaining mammal biogeography. These results provide empirical support for the role of historical climate fragmentation and physiography in shaping the distribution and evolution of life on Earth.

Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change

Predicting the effects of global environmental changes on species distribution is a top conservation priority, particularly for large carnivores, that contribute to regulating and maintaining ecosystems. As the most widespread and adaptable large felid, ranging across Africa and Asia, leopards are crucial to many ecosystems as both keystone and umbrella species, yet they are threatened across their ranges. We used intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range suitability for leopards under future climate and land-use change and identify conservation gaps and opportunities. We generated intraspecific SDMs for the three western leopard subspecies, the African, Panthera pardus pardus; Arabian, Panthera pardus nimr; and Persian, Panthera pardus tulliana, leopards, and overlapped predictions with protected areas (PAs) coverage. We show that leopard subspecies differ in their environmental associations and vulnerability to future changes. The African and Arabian leopards are predicted to lose ~25% and ~14% of their currently suitable range, respectively, while the Persian leopard is predicted to experience ~12% range gains. We found that most areas predicted to be suitable were not protected, with only 4%-16% of the subspecies' ranges falling inside PAs, and that these proportions will decrease in the future. The highly variable responses we found between leopard subspecies highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling vulnerability to climate and land-use changes. The predicted decrease in proportion of suitable ranges falling inside PAs threatens global capacity to effectively conserve leopards because survival rates are substantially lower outside PAs due to persecution. Hence, it is important to work with local communities to address negative human-wildlife interactions and to restore habitats to retain landscape connectivity where PA coverage is low. On the other hand, the predicted increase in range suitability across southern Europe presents opportunities for expansion outside of their contemporary range, capitalising on European rewilding schemes.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

Aquatic connectivity: challenges and solutions in a changing climate

The challenge of managing aquatic connectivity in a changing climate is exacerbated in the presence of additional anthropogenic stressors, social factors, and economic drivers. Here we discuss these issues in the context of structural and functional connectivity for aquatic biodiversity, specifically fish, in both the freshwater and marine realms. We posit that adaptive management strategies that consider shifting baselines and the socio-ecological implications of climate change will be required to achieve management objectives. The role of renewable energy expansion, particularly hydropower, is critically examined for its impact on connectivity. We advocate for strategic spatial planning that incorporates nature-positive solutions, ensuring climate mitigation efforts are harmonized with biodiversity conservation. We underscore the urgency of integrating robust scientific modelling with stakeholder values to define clear, adaptive management objectives. Finally, we call for innovative monitoring and predictive decision-making tools to navigate the uncertainties inherent in a changing climate, with the goal of ensuring the resilience and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems.

Regional reef fish assemblage maps provide baseline biogeography for tropicalization monitoring

The Anthropocene rise in global temperatures is facilitating the expansion of tropical species into historically non-native subtropical locales, including coral reef fish. This redistribution of species, known as tropicalization, has serious consequences for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health, and culture. Measuring the tropicalization of subtropical reef fish assemblages is difficult due to expansive species ranges, temporal distribution shifts with the movement of isotherms, and many dynamic density-dependent factors affecting occurrence and density. Therefore, in locales where tropical and subtropical species co-occur, detecting tropicalization changes relies on regional analyses of the relative densities and occurrence of species. This study provides a baseline for monitoring reef fish tropicalization by utilizing extensive monitoring data from a pivotal location in southeast Florida along a known transition between tropical and subtropical ecotones to define regional reef fish assemblages and use benthic habitat maps to spatially represent their zoogeography. Assemblages varied significantly by ecoregion, habitat depth, habitat type, and topographic relief. Generally, the southern assemblages had higher occurrences and densities of tropical species, whereas the northern assemblages had a higher occurrence and density of subtropical species. A total of 108 species were exclusive to regions south of the Bahamas Fracture Zone (BFZ) (South Palm Beach, Deerfield, Broward-Miami) and 35 were exclusive to the north (North Palm Beach, Martin), supporting the BFZ as a pivotal location that affects the coastal biogeographic extent of tropical marine species in eastern North America. Future tropicalization of reef fish assemblages are expected to be evident in temporal deviance of percent occurrence and/or relative species densities between baseline assemblages, where the poleward expansion of tropical species is expected to show the homogenization of assemblage regions as adjacent regions become more similar or the regional boundaries expand poleward. Ecoregions, habitat depth, habitat type, and relief should be incorporated into the stratification and analyses of reef fish surveys to statistically determine assemblage differences across the seascape, including those from tropicalization.

Local reflects global: Life stage-dependent changes in the phenology of coastal habitat use by North Sea herring

Climate warming is affecting the suitability and utilization of coastal habitats by marine fishes around the world. Phenological changes are an important indicator of population responses to climate-induced changes but remain difficult to detect in marine fish populations. The design of large-scale monitoring surveys does not allow fine-grained temporal inference of population responses, while the responses of ecologically and economically important species groups such as small pelagic fish are particularly sensitive to temporal resolution. Here, we use the longest, highest resolution time series of species composition and abundance of marine fishes in northern Europe to detect possible phenological shifts in the small pelagic North Sea herring. We detect a clear forward temporal shift in the phenology of nearshore habitat use by small juvenile North Sea herring. This forward shift might be linked to changes in water temperatures in the North Sea. We next assessed the robustness of the effects we found with respect to monitoring design. We find that reducing the temporal resolution of our data to reflect the resolution typical of larger surveys makes it difficult to detect phenological shifts and drastically reduces the effect sizes of environmental covariates such as seawater temperature. Our study therefore shows how local, long-term, high-resolution time series of fish catches are essential to understand the general phenological responses of marine fishes to climate warming and to define ecological indicators of system-level changes.

Degeneration of foundation cushion species induced by ecological constraints can cause massive changes in alpine plant communities

Foundational cushion plants can re-organize community structures and sustain a prominent proportion of alpine biodiversity, but they are sensitive to climate change. The loss of cushion species can have broad consequences for associated biota. The potential plant community changes with the population dynamics of cushion plants remain, however, unclear. Using eight plant communities along a climatic and community successional gradient, we assessed cushion population dynamics, the underlying ecological constraints and hence associated plant community changes in alpine communities dominated by the foundational cushion plant Arenaria polytrichoides. The population dynamics of Arenaria are attributed to ecological constraints at a series of life history stages. Reproductive functions are constrained by increasing associated beneficiary plants; subsequent seedling establishment is constrained by temperature, water and light availability, extreme climate events, and interspecific competition; strong competitive exclusion may accelerate mortality and degeneration of cushion populations. Along with cushion dynamics, species composition, abundance and community structure gradually change. Once cushion plants completely degenerate, previously cushion-dominated communities shift to relatively stable communities that are overwhelmingly dominated by sedges. Climate warming may accelerate the degeneration process of A. polytrichoides. Degeneration of this foundational cushion plant will possibly induce massive changes in alpine plant communities and hence ecosystem functions in alpine ecosystems. The assessment of the population dynamics of foundation species is critical for an effective conservation of alpine biodiversity.

Different response of females and males Neotropical catfish (Rhamdia quelen) upon short-term temperature increase

Climate change has been one of the most discussed topics in the world. Global warming is characterized by an increase in global temperature, also in aquatic environments. The increased temperature can affect aquatic organisms with lethal and sublethal effects. Thus, it is necessary to understand how different species respond to temperature. This study aimed to evaluate how the Neotropical catfish species Rhamdia quelen responds to temperature increases. The fish were exposed to temperatures of 25 °C (control) and 30 °C after gradual temperature increase for 7 days. After 96 h in each temperature, the fish were anesthetized, blood was collected, and after euthanasia, brain, liver, posterior kidney, gills, muscle, and gonads were collected. The gonads were used for sexing, while other tissues were used for the hematological, biochemical, genotoxic, and histopathological biomarkers analysis. Hepatic proteomic analysis with a focus on energy production was also carried out. Blood parameter changes in both sexes, including an increase in glucose in males, leukopenia in females, and genotoxicity in both sexes. Hepatic proteins related to energy production were altered in both sexes, but mainly in males. Others biomarker alterations, such as histopathological, were not observed in other tissues; however, the antioxidant system was affected differently between sexes. These showed that R. quelen juveniles, at temperatures higher than its optimum temperature such as 30 °C, has several sublethal changes, such as hematological alterations, antioxidant system activation, and energetic metabolism alteration, especially in males. Thus, short-term temperature rise can affect females and males of R. quelen differently.

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

Dyadic inter-group cooperation in shotgun hunting activities in a Congo Basin village

Understanding the dynamics of inter-group cooperation in human adaptation has been the subject of recent empirical and theoretical studies in evolutionary anthropology, beginning to fill gaps in our knowledge of how interactions across political, economic and social domains can - and often do - lead to stable, large-scale cooperation. Here we investigate dyadic intergroup cooperation in shotgun hunting in the Republic of the Congo. In the Congo Basin, inter-group cooperation between foragers and farmers is at the centre of an exchange system maintained by traditional norms and institutions such as fictive kinship. Here, we focused on what factors predict cooperative shotgun hunting exchanges between BaYaka and Yambe. We conducted structured interviews with 48 BaYaka hunters and 18 Yambe men who organise hunts in a village along the Motaba River. We used Bayesian multilevel regression models to investigate the influence of Yambe and BaYaka attributes on probability of dyadic cooperation. We found that BaYaka men's reputations as skilled hunters and their family size each predicted cooperation in shotgun hunting, whereas there was no effect of Yambe attributes (status, wealth, family size). We discuss the results in terms of evolutionary models of men as hunters and inter-group cooperation, as well as biodiversity conservation implications.

Increasing spread rates of tropical non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea

Warming as well as species introductions have increased over the past centuries, however a link between cause and effect of these two phenomena is still unclear. Here we use distribution records (1813-2023) to reconstruct the invasion histories of marine non-native macrophytes, macroalgae and seagrasses, in the Mediterranean Sea. We defined expansion as the maximum linear rate of spread (km year-1) and the accumulation of occupied grid cells (50 km2) over time and analyzed the relation between expansion rates and the species' thermal conditions at its native distribution range. Our database revealed a marked increase in the introductions and spread rates of non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea since the 1960s, notably intensifying after the 1990s. During the beginning of this century species velocity of invasion has increased to 26 ± 9 km2 year-1, with an acceleration in the velocity of invasion of tropical/subtropical species, exceeding those of temperate and cosmopolitan macrophytes. The highest spread rates since then were observed in macrophytes coming from native regions with minimum SSTs two to three degrees warmer than in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, most non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean (>80%) do not exceed the maximum temperature of their range of origin, whereas approximately half of the species are exposed to lower minimum SST in the Mediterranean than in their native range. This indicates that tropical/subtropical macrophytes might be able to expand as they are not limited by the colder Mediterranean SST due to the plasticity of their lower thermal limit. These results suggest that future warming will increase the thermal habitat available for thermophilic species in the Mediterranean Sea and continue to favor their expansion.

Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century

Habitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades1-3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere4-8. We demonstrate coherent declines of bumblebee populations since 1900 over most of Europe and identify future large-scale range contractions and species extirpations under all future climate and land use change scenarios. Around 38-76% of studied European bumblebee species currently classified as 'Least Concern' are projected to undergo losses of at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2014. All scenarios highlight that parts of Scandinavia will become potential refugia for European bumblebees; it is however uncertain whether these areas will remain clear of additional anthropogenic stressors not accounted for in present models. Our results underline the critical role of global change mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere.

Herbivore effects increase with latitude across the extent of a foundational seagrass

Climate change is altering the functioning of foundational ecosystems. While the direct effects of warming are expected to influence individual species, the indirect effects of warming on species interactions remain poorly understood. In marine systems, as tropical herbivores undergo poleward range expansion, they may change food web structure and alter the functioning of key habitats. While this process ('tropicalization') has been documented within declining kelp forests, we have a limited understanding of how this process might unfold across other systems. Here we use a network of sites spanning 23° of latitude to explore the effects of increased herbivory (simulated via leaf clipping) on the structure of a foundational marine plant (turtlegrass). By working across its geographic range, we also show how gradients in light, temperature and nutrients modified plant responses. We found that turtlegrass near its northern boundary was increasingly affected (reduced productivity) by herbivory and that this response was driven by latitudinal gradients in light (low insolation at high latitudes). By contrast, low-latitude meadows tolerated herbivory due to high insolation which enhanced plant carbohydrates. We show that as herbivores undergo range expansion, turtlegrass meadows at their northern limit display reduced resilience and may be under threat of ecological collapse.

The great urban shift: Climate change is predicted to drive mass species turnover in cities

Human experiences with nature are important for our culture, economy, and health. Anthropogenically-driven climate change is causing widespread shifts in biodiversity and resident urban wildlife are no exception. We modelled over 2,000 animal species to predict how climate change will impact terrestrial wildlife within 60 Canadian and American cities. We found evidence of an impending great urban shift where thousands of species will disappear across the selected cities, being replaced by new species, or not replaced at all. Effects were largely species-specific, with the most negatively impacted taxa being amphibians, canines, and loons. These predicted shifts were consistent across scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, but our results show that the severity of change will be defined by our action or inaction to mitigate climate change. An impending massive shift in urban wildlife will impact the cultural experiences of human residents, the delivery of ecosystem services, and our relationship with nature.

Exploring Epigenetic and Genetic Modulation in Animal Responses to Thermal Stress

There is increasing evidence indicating that global temperatures are rising significantly, a phenomenon commonly referred to as 'global warming', which in turn is believed to be causing drastic changes to the global climate. Global warming (GW) directly impacts animal health, reproduction, production, and welfare, presenting several challenges to livestock enterprises. Thermal stress (TS) is one of the key consequences of GW, and all animal species, including livestock, have diverse physiological, epigenetic and genetic mechanisms to respond to TS. As a result, TS can significantly affect an animals' health, immune responsiveness, metabolic pathways etc. which can also influence the productivity, performance, and welfare of animals. Moreover, prolonged exposure to TS can lead to transgenerational and intergenerational changes that are mediated by epigenetic changes. For example, in several animal species, the effects of TS are encoded epigenetically during the animals' growth or productive stage, and these epigenetic changes can be transmitted intergenerationally. Such epigenetic changes can affect animal productivity by changing the phenotype so that it aligns with its ancestors' environment, irrespective of its immediate environment. Furthermore, epigenetic and genetic changes can also help protect cells from the adverse effects of TS by modulating the transcriptional status of heat-responsive genes in animals. This review focuses on the genetic and epigenetic modulation and regulation that occurs in TS conditions via HSPs, histone alterations and DNA methylation.

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Priority Protection for Cupressus gigantea on the Tibetan Plateau

Cupressus gigantea (C. gigantea) is an endemic endangered species on the Tibetan Plateau; its potential suitable areas and priority protection in the context of global climate change remain poorly predicted. This study utilized Biomod2 and Marxan to assess the potential suitable areas and priority protection for C. gigantea. Our study revealed that the suitable areas of C. gigantea were concentrated in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, with the center in Lang County. Temperature was identified as a crucial environmental factor influencing the distribution of C. gigantea. Over the coming decades, the suitable range of C. gigantea expanded modestly, while its overall distribution remained relatively stable. Moreover, the center of the highly suitable areas tended to migrate towards Milin County in the northeast. Presently, significant areas for improvement are needed to establish protected areas for C. gigantea. The most feasible priority protected areas were located between the Lang and Milin counties in Tibet, which have more concentrated and undisturbed habitats. These results provide scientific guidance for the conservation and planning of C. gigantea, contributing to the stability and sustainability of ecosystems.

Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification

As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040-2060) and late (2061-2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Multiscale stability of an intertidal kelp (Postelsia palmaeformis) near its northern range edge through a period of prolonged heatwaves

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Climate change, including gradual changes and extreme weather events, is driving widespread species losses and range shifts. These climatic changes are felt acutely in intertidal ecosystems, where many organisms live close to their thermal limits and experience the extremes of both marine and terrestrial environments. A recent series of multiyear heatwaves in the northeast Pacific Ocean might have impacted species even towards their cooler, northern range edges. Among them, the high intertidal kelp Postelsia palmaeformis has traits that could make it particularly vulnerable to climate change, but it is critically understudied.

METHODS

In 2021 and 2022, we replicated in situ and aerial P. palmaeformis surveys that were conducted originally in 2006 and 2007, in order to assess the state of northern populations following recent heatwaves. Changes in P. palmaeformis distribution, extent, density and morphometrics were assessed between these two time points over three spatial scales, ranging from 250 m grid cells across the entire 167 km study region, to within grid cells and the individual patch.

KEY RESULTS

We found evidence consistent with population stability at all three scales: P. palmaeformis remained present in all 250 m grid cells in the study region where it was previously found, and neither the extent within cells nor the patch density changed significantly between time points. However, there was evidence of slight distributional expansion, increased blade lengths and a shift to earlier reproductive timing.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that apparent long-term stability of P. palmaeformis might be attributable to thermal buffering near its northern range edge and from the wave-exposed coastlines it inhabits, which may have decreased the impacts of heatwaves. Our results highlight the importance of multiscale assessments when examining changes within species and populations, in addition to the importance of dispersal capability and local conditions in regulating the responses of species to climate change.

Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas

Ocean warming and acidification, decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations, and changes in primary production are causing an unprecedented global redistribution of marine life. The identification of underlying ecological processes underpinning marine species turnover, particularly the prevalence of increases of warm-water species or declines of cold-water species, has been recently debated in the context of ocean warming. Here, we track changes in the mean thermal affinity of marine communities across European seas by calculating the Community Temperature Index for 65 biodiversity time series collected over four decades and containing 1,817 species from different communities (zooplankton, coastal benthos, pelagic and demersal invertebrates and fish). We show that most communities and sites have clearly responded to ongoing ocean warming via abundance increases of warm-water species (tropicalization, 54%) and decreases of cold-water species (deborealization, 18%). Tropicalization dominated Atlantic sites compared to semi-enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, probably due to physical barrier constraints to connectivity and species colonization. Semi-enclosed basins appeared to be particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, experiencing the fastest rates of warming and biodiversity loss through deborealization.

Japanese honey bees (Apis cerana japonica) have swarmed more often over the last two decades

The impacts of temperature increase are a concern for honey bees, which are major pollinators of crops and wild plants. Swarming is the reproductive behavior of honey bees that increases colony numbers. Honey bee colonies sometimes swarm multiple times, with each swarming termed a "swarming event" and a series of these events called a "swarming cycle." The number of swarming events per swarming cycle varies widely depending on climatic conditions and subspecies, and the recent temperature increase due to global warming might be affecting the number of swarming events per swarming cycle of native honey bees. We clarified long-term changes in the number of swarming events per swarming cycle of Japanese honey bees (Apis cerana japonica) by collecting beekeepers' swarming logbooks. The survey showed that between 2000 and 2022, Japanese honey bees swarmed 1 to 8 times per swarming cycle. Generalized linear model analysis indicated that year had a significant positive effect (coefficient, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.01-0.04); that is, the number of swarming events per swarming cycle showed a moderate increase over time. In addition, we found that colonies swarmed more often in a cycle when the swarming process began in early spring, especially in March. Considering the notably strong trend in Japan of warmer temperatures in March, the number of swarming events per swarming cycle may be increasing because reproduction is beginning earlier in the year. Further analyses are needed to verify the causal relationship of temperature increase on the number of swarming events per swarming cycle.

Fate characteristics and risk quantification of cyflumetofen from tomato cultivation to processing based on large-scale applications

Elucidating the fate characteristics of cyflumetofen and its main metabolite 2-TFMBA in tomato from cultivation to processing is crucial for safeguarding the environment and humans from hazardous effects. Cyflumetofen and 2-TFMBA could exist stably in tomato matrices for at least 343 days under frozen and dark conditions according to UHPLC-MS/MS, with a limit of quantitation of 0.001 mg/kg and retention time within 2.12 min. The occurrence, dissipation, and concentration variation of cyflumetofen were reflected by original depositions of 0.02-0.44 mg/kg, half-lives of 1.7-7.2 days, and terminal magnitudes of 0.005-0.30 mg/kg, respectively, with various influencing factors, e.g., climate conditions and tomato cultivars. Additionally, 13.5-59.3% of cyflumetofen was metabolized to 2-TFMBA, showing significant toxicological effects ranging from cultivation to processing. When the concentration decreased by 0.06 mg/kg, cyflumetofen was effectively removed by peeling, while washing was the recommended method for removing 2-TFMBA with a processing factor of 0.70. The comparative dietary risks of sum cyflumetofen were assessed for all life cycle populations using deterministic and probabilistic models. The risk quotients decreased to 1.3-4.8 times during the preparation of home canning tomato paste. Despite the low exposure risk, the potential health hazards of sum cyflumetofen should be considered, given its ubiquity and cumulative effects.

Climate change reduces long-term population benefits from no-take marine protected areas through selective pressures on species movement

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools that confer ecosystem benefits by removing fishing within their borders to allow stocks to rebuild. Fishing mortality outside a traditionally fixed MPA can exert selective pressure for low movement alleles, resulting in enhanced protection. While evolving to move less may be useful for conservation presently, it could be detrimental in the face of climate change for species that need to move to track their thermal optimum. Here, we build a spatially explicit simulation model to assess the impact of movement evolution in and around static MPAs resulting from both fishing mortality and temperature-dependent natural mortality on conservation benefits across five climate scenarios: (i) linear mean temperature shift, (ii) El Niño/La Niña conditions, (iii) heat waves, (iv) heatwaves with a mean temperature shift, and (v) no climate change. While movement evolution allows populations within MPAs to survive longer, we find that over time, climate change degrades the benefits by selecting for higher movement genotypes. Resulting population declines within MPAs are faster than expected based on climate mortality alone, even within the largest MPAs. Our findings suggest that while static MPAs may conserve species for a time, other strategies, such as dynamic MPA networks or assisted migration, may also be required to effectively incorporate climate change into conservation planning.

Fire sparks upslope range shifts of North Cascades plant species

As ongoing climate change drives suitable habitats to higher elevations, species ranges are predicted to follow. However, observed range shifts have been surprisingly variable, with most species differing in rates of upward shift and others failing to shift at all. Disturbances such as fires could play an important role in accelerating range shifts by facilitating recruitment in newly suitable habitats (leading edges) and removing adults from areas no longer suited for regeneration (trailing edges). To date, empirical evidence that fires interact with climate change to mediate elevational range shifts is scarce. Resurveying historical plots in areas that experienced climate change and fire disturbance between surveys provides an exciting opportunity to fill this gap. To investigate whether species have tended to shift upslope and if shifts depend on fires, we resurveyed historical vegetation plots in North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA, an area that has experienced warming, drying, and multiple fires since the original surveys in 1983. We quantified range shifts by synthesizing across two lines of evidence: (1) displacement at range edges and the median elevation of species occurrences, and (2) support for the inclusion of interactions among time, fire and elevation in models of species presence with elevation. Among species that experienced fire since the original survey, a plurality expanded into new habitats at their upper edge. In contrast, a plurality of species not experiencing fire showed no evidence of shifts, with the remainder exhibiting responses that were variable in magnitude and direction. Our results suggest that fires can facilitate recruitment at leading edges, while species in areas free of disturbance are more likely to experience stasis.

Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity

BACKGROUND

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health.

METHODS

We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070.

FINDINGS

Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health.

INTERPRETATION

Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades.

FUNDING

German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, European Regional Development Fund.

The chemical stoichiometry characteristics of plant-soil carbon and nitrogen in subtropical Pinus massoniana natural forests

Ecological stoichiometry is essential for understanding changes in ecosystem structure and nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems. However, the stoichiometric characteristics of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in different organs or layers, such as leaves, branches, trunks, roots, understory vegetation, litter, and soil within a forest ecosystem, have remained poorly understood. In this study, four age groups of Pinus massoniana natural forest including young, middle-aged, near-mature, and mature were selected as research subjects to illustrate the C and N stoichiometry interactions among different layers and organs in the forest ecosystem. The results showed that the average C and N concentrations in the leaves of the tree layer, shrub layer, and herb aboveground parts (HAP) were higher than that of other tree and shrub organs, as well as the herb underground parts (HUP), respectively. The N concentrations of tree branches and trunks showed a trend of increase first and decrease later from young to mature phases, but the C:N ratios presented an opposite trend. The C concentrations.in all tissues in shrubs showed a first decline and then a rise with age. As age progressed, the N concentration in each ecosystem layer increased gradually and demonstrated high synergy. The mineralization of organic matter in the soil was generally slow. The C concentrations in the understory vegetation layer were significantly positively correlated with the C concentrations in the litter layer but negatively correlated with the soil layer, and the C concentrations in the litter layer were also significantly negatively correlated with the C concentrations in the soil layer. The research findings can provide a reference basis for the formulation of nutrient regulation and sustainable management measures in the natural forests of P. massoniana in the study area.