High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming

Influence of anthropogenic nutrient sources on kelp canopies during a marine heat wave

Giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a keystone species in many temperate coastal oceans, is increasingly threatened by global change and local stressors including increased temperature, reduced nutrients, and decreased water clarity. In the Southern California Bight (SCB), a coastal region with enriched nitrogen input from of 23 million, understanding the factors that contribute to the stability of kelp habitat demands comprehensive research to protect this species and its critical ecosystem roles. During the 2014-2016 marine heat wave (MHW), giant kelp exhibited variability in its response across the SCB despite region-wide temperature increases, leading to questions about what might be conferring resilience to thermal stress. To better understand this variation, we spatially analyze kelp forest canopy area before and during the 2014-2016 MHW. We use spatial statistics to determine the correlation between these observations and estimates of anthropogenic dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) derived from a regional physical-biogeochemical model. We find there are regions within the SCB where anthropogenic sources could elevate dissolved inorganic nitrogen to concentrations adequate for kelp growth during periods in which natural supplies would fall below growth thresholds. We also find kelp forests with greater days of anthropogenic influence during the MHW sustained a greater percentage of pre-MHW normalized canopy area. These results suggest possible contribution of anthropogenic nitrogen to kelp nutrient requirements during climate-driven nutrient stress. More work remains to tease apart anthropogenic nutrients from other eutrophication impacts, such as changes to water clarity from increased productivity, as well as other potential environmental and biological factors during MHW and non-MHW periods.

Fishing during extreme heatwaves alters ecological interactions and increases indirect fishing mortality in a ubiquitous nearshore system

Heatwaves may have multifaceted ecological impacts; however, field studies assessing the ecological ramifications of nearshore fishing during heatwaves are rare. We leverage a field experiment simulating clam fishing to document such effects on a ubiquitous ecological system at the land-sea interface. During monthly field trials from May-September 2024, we experimentally fished clams at low tide and tracked reburrowing and mortality rates of marked, sub-legal sized clams returned to the sediment. Half of the clams were protected from crab predation and estimates of predator and scavenger activity were recorded. Clams typically reburrowed quickly and mortality was low. During the heatwave, however, clams appeared unhealthy, failed to reburrow, and suffered near-complete mortality. Predator activity in experimental plots was >4× higher during the heatwave compared to other months. Clam mortality during the heatwave was likely a combined result of physiological death and increased predation. When put into the context of air temperature during fishing, there was a clear ecological shift at 30 °C, whereby clam reburrowing plummeted, and predator/scavenger activity and clam mortality dramatically increased. These results provide in situ documentation of human-climate interactions influencing indirect fishing mortality and altering ecological dynamics, ultimately generating pertinent information for ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Urban and non-urban contributions to the social cost of carbon

The social cost of carbon (SCC) serves as a concise measure of climate change's economic impact, often reported at the global and country level. SCC values tend to be disproportionately high for less-developed, populous countries. Previous studies do not distinguish between urban and non-urban areas and ignore the synergies between local and global warming. High exposure and concurrent socioenvironmental problems exacerbate climate change risks in cities. Using a spatially explicit integrated assessment model, the SCC is estimated at USD$187/tCO2, rising to USD$490/tCO2 when including urban heat island (UHI) warming. Urban SCC dominates, representing about 78%-93% of the global SCC, due to both urban exposure and the UHI. This finding implies that the highest global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitters also experience the largest economic losses. Global cities have substantial leverage on climate policy at the national and global scales and strong incentives for a swift transition to a low-carbon economy.

Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves are extreme climatic events consisting of persistent periods of warm ocean waters that have profound impacts on marine life. These episodes are becoming more intense, longer, and more frequent in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here, we provide a comprehensive and quantitative assessment on the role of global warming on marine heatwaves. To do so, we construct a counterfactual version of observed global sea surface temperatures since 1940, corresponding to a stationary climate without the effect of long-term increasing global temperatures, and use it to calculate the contribution of global air temperature rise on the intensity and persistence of marine heatwaves. We determine that global warming is responsible for nearly half of these extreme events and that, on a global average, it has led to a three-fold increase in the number of days per year that the oceans experience extreme surface heat conditions. We also show that global warming is responsible for an increase of 1 °C in the maximum intensity of the events. Our findings highlight the detrimental role that human-induced global warming plays on marine heatwaves. This study supports the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to address these threats to marine ecosystems.

Extreme compound events in the equatorial and South Atlantic

The impacts of marine heatwaves (MHWs) on marine ecosystems can be amplified when combined with other extreme events. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of compound events of MHW, high acidity and low chlorophyll in the equatorial and South Atlantic, using observation-based datasets and reanalysis products. We show that the frequency and intensity of these triple compound events under a fixed baseline have increased dramatically over the past two decades, peaking in the most recent years. We analyse the drivers of triple compound events for six regions and find that, for the Angola Front and Brazil-Malvinas Confluence regions, these events are associated with a poleward shift of the fronts. In the Agulhas Leakage region, an increase in warmer waters entering from the Indian Ocean leads to compound extremes. In the western equatorial and subtropical Atlantic, they are caused by changes in the air-sea heat fluxes, while in the eastern equatorial by a weakening of upwelling. In addition, triple compound events are widespread over the South Atlantic during El Niño events, which is important because MHWs can be predicted when associated with ENSO.

Frequent land-ocean transboundary migration of tropical heatwaves under climate change

Anthropogenic warming has exacerbated atmospheric heatwaves globally, yet the transboundary migration of heatwaves between land and ocean, along with the anthropogenic influence on this process, remain unclear. Here, we employ a Lagrangian tracking approach to identify and track spatiotemporally contiguous warm-season heatwaves in both reanalyses and simulations. This way, we show that land-ocean transboundary heatwaves, especially in the tropics, exhibit longer persistence, wider areal extent, and greater intensity than those confined to land or ocean. These transboundary migrations are primarily driven by the movement of high-pressure systems (such as the westward extension of subtropical highs) and the propagation of Rossby waves. Associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the frequency of tropical heatwave migrations has increased over the past four decades, and is projected to accelerate further in the twenty-first century under the high-emissions scenario. Anthropogenically-driven landward migrations are amplified by stronger landward winds that drive heat advection, while oceanward processes are likely intensified by increased land-ocean temperature gradient. These intensified transboundary heatwaves not only accentuate humid heat risks for humans but also threaten ecosystems.

Subsurface heatwaves in lakes

Lake heatwaves (extreme hot water events) can substantially disrupt aquatic ecosystems. Although surface heatwaves are well studied, their vertical structures within lakes remain largely unexplored. Here we analyse the characteristics of subsurface lake heatwaves (extreme hot events occurring below the surface) using a spatiotemporal modelling framework. Our findings reveal that subsurface heatwaves are frequent, often longer lasting but less intense than surface events. Deep-water heatwaves (bottom heatwaves) have increased in frequency (7.2 days decade-1), duration (2.1 days decade-1) and intensity (0.2 °C days decade-1) over the past 40 years. Moreover, vertically compounding heatwaves, where extreme heat occurs simultaneously at the surface and bottom, have risen by 3.3 days decade-1. By the end of the century, changes in heatwave patterns, particularly under high emissions, are projected to intensify. These findings highlight the need for subsurface monitoring to fully understand and predict the ecological impacts of lake heatwaves.

Eat more, often: The capacity of piscivores to meet increased energy demands in warming oceans

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) profoundly disturb tropical coral reefs, imperilling species fitness and survival. Ectothermic piscivorous reef fishes are particularly vulnerable to MHWs since all aspects of their survival are dictated by ambient temperature. Severe +4 °C MHWs are projected to escalate daily energy demands by ~32-55 %, compelling piscivores to pursue larger or more frequent prey to survive. However, the feasibility of these responses have been questioned, as evolved predation and digestive strategies are constrained to specific prey types and sizes to safeguard residual aerobic scope (AS) during digestion for other vital processes. Instead, prevailing theory proposes appetite reductions at temperatures above optimal, preserving AS at the expense of growth and/or fitness. We investigated this dichotomy in the thermal foraging responses of Arc-eye hawkfish (Paracirrhites arcatus) and blacktail snapper (Lutjanus fulvus), evaluating energetic demand (standard metabolic rate, SMR), AS, appetite (meal mass intake), and capacity for digestion (specific dynamic action, SDA). Spanning a thermal gradient encompassing present-day winter (24.0 ± 0.1 °C), summer (27.5 ± 0.1 °C), and MHW (31.0 ± 0.1 °C), we show that SMR increased by ~65 % from winter to MHW for both species, while AS increased by ~31-67 %. Contrary to predictions of reduced appetite, both species consumed ~106 % larger meals, yielding a ~ 35-105 % greater SDA magnitude. Surprisingly, increased appetite did not encroach on residual AS as both species maintained the physiological flexibility to process larger meals while retaining ~45-60 % of AS at the post-prandial peak. Although larger meals take longer to digest, both species exhibited faster digestion with rising temperatures resulting in a maintained or shortened SDA duration during MHWs, simultaneously enabling increased feeding rates while preserving aerobic reserves to support heightened predation. Our findings underscore the physiological feasibility of increasing appetite for some piscivores, while highlighting the ecological challenge of increasing prey numbers and sizes amid declining prey densities and prey size-reductions caused by ocean warming.

The Thermal Stress History of South Atlantic Reefs Reveals Increasing Intensity, Duration, Frequency, and Likely Undocumented Bleaching Episodes

The primary consequence of global warming for reefs is coral bleaching, often leading to extensive coral mortality. Although bleaching is well-documented globally, the thermal stress and bleaching experienced by the unique South Atlantic reefs remain largely unknown due to insufficient monitoring on both spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, this work aimed to reconstruct past thermal stress episodes across South Atlantic reefs, and assessed whether episodes are becoming more intense, longer-lasting, and more frequent. We retrieved daily 5 km-resolution Degree Heating Week (DHW) data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch server for 33 reef sites spanning the last 40 years. For each thermal stress episode, we assessed the intensity (maximum DHW value), duration (number of continuous days under stress), and frequency (number of days between episodes). Generalized linear models were fitted to intensity, duration, and frequency data to evaluate the influence of latitude and the time x region interaction as predictors. We recorded multiple thermal stress episodes, increasing from 2010 onwards, ranging from 10 episodes between 1985-89 and 75 between 2020-24. Intensity and duration increased over time across the entire South Atlantic. Frequency also increased across the Southwestern Atlantic coast and oceanic islands, but not for Africa. Episodes at higher latitudes were more intense, prolonged, and frequent. The validity of the thermal stress history reconstruction was groundtruthed using information from the Abrolhos Bank, the only consistently monitored reef site in the South Atlantic-DHW data accurately matched the observed bleaching episodes at this site. With this, our dataset shows that multiple bleaching episodes likely occurred in the South Atlantic, but went undocumented in the field. Therefore, the information currently available for the South Atlantic likely underestimates the extent of bleaching occurring in the area, which is experiencing increases in intensity, duration, and frequency of thermal stress.

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations

Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.

Climate change and variability drive increasing exposure of marine heatwaves across US estuaries

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are among the greatest threats to marine ecosystems, and while substantial advances have been made in oceanic MHWs, little is known about estuarine MHWs. Utilizing a temperature dataset spanning over two decades and 54 stations distributed across 20 estuaries in the United States National Estuarine Research Reserve System, we present a comprehensive analysis of estuarine MHW characteristics and trends. Long-term climate-change-driven warming is driving more frequent MHWs along the East Coast, and if trends continue, this region will be in a MHW state for ~ 1/3 of the year by the end of the century. In contrast, the vast majority of the West Coast showed no trends, highlighting the potential for future thermal refugia. The West Coast was more strongly influenced by climate variability through the enhancement/suppression of MHWs during different phases of climate modes, suggesting long-term predictability potential. These results can provide guidance for management actions and planning in these critical environments.

Interactive effects of elevated temperature and venlafaxine on mitochondrial respiration and enzymatic capacity in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus)

Warming events are becoming more frequent and extreme in aquatic environments worldwide. Concurrently, many environments are polluted with biologically active compounds such as pharmaceuticals. Understanding how these challenges interact is critical for understanding the climate crisis, as contaminants may modulate how ectotherms respond to heat stress or vice versa. One potential site for these heat × contaminant interactions is the mitochondrion, which is central to metabolism, implicated in thermal tolerance, and evolutionarily conserved. Using high-resolution respirometry, we investigated how acute warming (to 35 °C, 40 °C, or 45 °C from 25 °C) impacted the respiration, coupling, and metabolic capacity of liver mitochondria isolated from Nile tilapia, and how exposure to environmentally relevant levels of the ubiquitous antidepressant venlafaxine modulated those effects. Mitochondria exposed to hotter temperatures had higher respiration rates and decreased respiratory control ratio compared to mitochondria exposed to cooler temperatures. The depressive effects of venlafaxine on respiration rates through complex I and II or complex II only (State 3 and State 4), as well as complex IV-linked respiration, were mild except in mitochondria exposed to high temperatures, suggesting an interactive effect of warming and contaminant exposure. Finally, we found that the maximal enzyme activity of intact mitochondria (represented by mitochondrial respiration) showed a different pattern of response to warming and venlafaxine compared to its underlying components (as reflected by the activity of succinate dehydrogenase [complex II] and cytochrome c oxidase [complex IV]), demonstrating the value of incorporating both interactive and reductive approaches in understanding how mitochondria cope with anthropogenic changes in the environment.

Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in response to El Niño-related marine heatwaves in the tropical Pacific Ocean

The tropical Pacific is the largest oceanic source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, where persistent marine heatwaves (MHWs) frequently occur. During persistent MHW events which are associated with strong El Niño events, CO2 outgassing is notably reduced, however, its detailed spatiotemporal response to MHWs has not been fully characterized. In this study, we showed a high degree of consistency between CO2 source regions in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the occurrence regions with average annual MHW days exceeding 45 days (co-occurring area covers 80% of the area where MHWs occur). The spatiotemporal variability of the air-sea CO2 flux on interannual and longer timescales can be reconstructed from annual MHW days and occurrence frequency, respectively, in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean of the co-occurring region. In this region, El Niño-related MHWs reduce the air-sea CO2 flux density up to 0.4-0.8 molC/m2/yr per 100 MHW days, corresponding to a reduction of CO2 emissions by approximately 0.1 PgC per 100 MHW days. This is a 10%-40% reduction in CO2 emissions during MHW periods, with the strongest impact (30%-40% CO2 emission reduction) in the equatorial Pacific (5°S-5°N) of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In contrast, air-sea CO2 flux variations in coastal eastern upwelling region of the co-occurring region are mainly subjected to seasonal mixed layer variations, and thus not notably affected by El Niño-related MHWs on interannual timescales. By establishing the reproducibility between MHWs and air-sea CO2 flux variations, our results pave a way for detailed future spatiotemporal evolutions of MHW-induced changes in air-sea CO2 flux in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Monitoring Fish Bacterial Pathogens of Wild Fish Species From the South China Sea by Applying Next-Generation Sequencing on Gill Tissue

The classic epidemiological triangle model of host-environment-pathogen is recently being reshaped into a tetrahedron, with the growing understanding of the importance of the microbiome in this array. The gills, being a gateway into the fish body, bearing an important role in fish homeostasis, host a complex microbiome that reflects the ambient water, while also showing resemblance to gut microbiome. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) and improvements in data analysis tools enable researchers to gather and analyse a lot more data than ever before, take a closer, more detailed look at microbiota, and gain a much better understanding of the biological processes at work in these complex relations. Here, 16S rRNA amplicons of bacterial DNA extracted from the gills of 36 asymptomatic specimens of three wild fish species from the South China Sea (Nemipterus japonicus, Alepes djebaba, and Saurida tumbil) were sequenced using NGS. Data analyses revealed the presence of 20 potentially pathogenic species, including several zoonotic agents. Gill microbiota exhibited host species-specificity, and expressed a significant difference between demersal and pelagic-amphidromous fish. It is suggested that this method be more widely implemented, in order to gain more insight on ocean ecosystems' health status, as well as fish stocks of commercial importance.

Reduced primary productivity and notable resilience of phytoplankton community in the coastal water of southern China under a marine heatwave

Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of marine heatwaves (MHWs) are supposed to affect coastal biological production in different regions to different extents. To understand how MHWs impact coastal primary productivity and community succession of phytoplankton and assess the changes in resilience of phytoplankton communities, we conducted a mesoscale enclosure experiment simulating a MHW in the coastal water of southern China. After 8 days of the MHW (+3 °C) treatment, community biomass was significantly lower than the control's, and primary productivity per volume of water was reduced by about 56%. Nevertheless, the phytoplankton community retrieved its biomass and primary productivity after the temperature was subsequently reset to that of the control. Although the MHW treatment decreased the abundance of diatom and increased the percentages of Synechococcus and Prasinophytes, the main phytoplankton functional types showed positive resilience that allowed the recovery of the phytoplankton community after the MHW. Our results indicate that key phytoplankton functional types in the southern coastal waters of China exhibited significant resilience, recovery, and temporal stability under the influence of the marine MHW by 3 °C rise. However, reduced primary productivity during the MHW period, along with decreased biomass density, might significantly influence secondary producers. In addition, the altered phytoplankton community structure may affect coastal food web processes at least during the MHW period.

Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model

A shift in depth range enables marine organisms to adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs). Subsurface MHWs could limit this pathway, yet their response to climate warming remains unclear. Here, using an eddy-resolving Earth system model forced under a high emission scenario, we project a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs driven by rising subsurface mean temperatures and enhanced temperature variability. Historically, maximum MHW intensity occurs around 100 m depth, which shifts to the faster-warming surface under greenhouse warming. However, removing the long-term warming trend yields an increase in subsurface MHW intensity and annual days greater than that at the surface, especially in large marine ecosystem regions, primarily due to increased variability. Additionally, days of the surface and subsurface concurrent event increase ten times more than those of individual events. Our study highlights a heightened threat to marine organisms under global warming, as the increased subsurface heatwaves reduce their refuge options.

Heat waves induce milkweed resistance to a specialist herbivore via increased toxicity and reduced nutrient content

Over the last decade, a large effort has been made to understand how extreme climate events disrupt species interactions. Yet, it is unclear how these events affect plants and herbivores directly, via metabolic changes, and indirectly, via their subsequent altered interaction. We exposed common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) and monarch caterpillars (Danaus plexippus) to control (26:14°C, day:night) or heat wave (HW) conditions (36:24°C, day:night) for 4 days and then moved each organism to a new control or HW partner to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of heat exposure on each organism. We found that the HW directly benefited plants in terms of growth and defence expression (increased latex exudation and total cardenolides) and insect her'bivores through faster larval development. Conversely, indirect HW effects caused both plant latex and total cardenolides to decrease after subsequent herbivory. Nonetheless, increasing trends of more toxic cardenolides and lower leaf nutritional quality after herbivory by HW caterpillars likely led to reduced plant damage compared to controls. Our findings reveal that indirect impacts of HWs may play a greater role in shaping plant-herbivore interactions via changes in key physiological traits, providing valuable understanding of how ecological interactions may proceed in a changing world.

Temperature influences immune cell development and body length in purple sea urchin larvae

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves that may broadly impact the health of marine invertebrates. Rising ocean temperatures lead to increases in disease prevalence in marine organisms; it is therefore critical to understand how marine heatwaves impact immune system development. The purple sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) is an ecologically important, broadcast-spawning, omnivore that primarily inhabits kelp forests in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The S. purpuratus life cycle includes a relatively long-lived (∼2 months) planktotrophic larval stage. Larvae have a well-characterized cellular immune system that is mediated, in part, by a subset of mesenchymal cells known as pigment cells. To assess the role of environmental temperature on the development of larval immune cells, embryos were generated from adult sea urchins conditioned at 14 °C. Embryos were then cultured in either ambient (14 °C) or elevated (18 °C) seawater. Results indicate that larvae raised in an elevated temperature were slightly larger and had more pigment cells than those raised at ambient temperature. Further, the larval phenotypes varied significantly among genetic crosses, which highlights the importance of genotype in structuring how the immune system develops in the context of the environment. Overall, these results indicate that larvae are phenotypically plastic in modulating their immune cells and body length in response to adverse developmental conditions.

Bivalves under extreme weather events: A comparative study of five economically important species in the South China sea during marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in frequency and intensity, threatening marine organisms and ecosystems they support. Yet, little is known about impacts of intensifying MHWs on ecologically and economically important bivalves cultured in the South China Sea. Here, we compared survival and physiological responses of five bivalve species, Pinctada fucata, Crassostrea angulata, Perna viridis, Argopecten irradians and Paphia undulata, to two consecutive MHWs events (3 days of thermal exposure to + 4 °C or + 8 °C, following 3 days of recovery under ambient conditions). While P. fucata, P. viridis, and P. undulata are native to the South China Sea region, C. angulata and A. irradians are not. Individuals of P. fucata, C. angulata and P. viridis had higher stress tolerance to MHWs than A. irradians and P. undulata, the latter already experiencing 100% mortality under +8 °C conditions during the first event. With increasing intensity of MHWs, standard metabolic rates of all five species increased significantly, in line with significant depressions of function-related energy-metabolizing enzymes (CMA, NKA, and T-ATP). Likewise, activities of antioxidant enzymes (SOD, CAT, and MDA) and shell mineralization-related enzymes (AKP and ACP) responded significantly to MHWs, despite species-specific performances observed. These findings demonstrate that some bivalve species can likely fail to accommodate intensifying MHWs events in the South China Sea, but some may persist. If this is the case, then one would expect substantial loss of fitness in bivalve aquaculture in the South China Sea under intensifying MHWs conditions.

Role of Morphology on Zinc Oxide Nanostructures for Efficient Photoelectrochemical Activity and Hydrogen Production

Energy generation today heavily relies on the field of photocatalysis, with many conventional energy generation strategies now superseded by the conversion of solar energy into chemical or thermal energy for a variety of energy-related applications. Global warming has pointed to the urgent necessity of moving away from non-renewable energy sources, with a resulting emphasis on creating the best photocatalysts for effective solar conversion by investigating a variety of material systems and material combinations. The present study explores the influence of morphological changes on the photoelectrochemical activity of zinc oxide nanostructures by exploiting electrodeposition and capping agents to control the growth rates of different ZnO facets and obtain well-defined nanostructures and orientations. A zinc nitrate (Zn (NO3)2) bath was used to electrodeposit ZnO nanostructures on an indium tin oxide glass (ITO) substrate at 70 °C with an applied potential of -1.0 V. Ethylenediamine (EDA) or ammonium fluoride (NH4F) were added as capping agents to the zinc nitrate bath. Extensive evaluation and characterization of the photoelectrochemical (PEC) capabilities of the resulting morphology-controlled zinc oxide nanostructures confirmed that altering the ZnO morphology can have positive impacts on PEC properties.

In Hot Water: Current Thermal Threshold Methods Unlikely to Predict Invasive Species Shifts in NW Atlantic

As global temperatures continue to rise, accurate predicted species distribution models will be important for forecasting the movement of range-shifting species. These predictions rely on measurements of organismal thermal tolerance, which can be measured using classical threshold concepts such as Arrhenius break temperatures and critical thermal temperatures, or through ecologically relevant measurements such as the temperature at which reproduction and growth occur. Many species, including invasive species, exhibit thermal plasticity, so these thresholds may change based on ambient temperature, life stage, and measurement techniques. Here, we review thermal thresholds for 15 invertebrate species invasive to the Gulf of Maine. The high degree of variability within a species and between applied conceptual frameworks suggests that modeling the future distribution of these species in all ecosystems, but especially in the rapidly warming northwest Atlantic and Gulf of Maine, will be challenging. While each of these measurement techniques is valid, we suggest contextualization and integration of threshold measurements for accurate modeling.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region.

Resistance of an intertidal oyster(Saccostrea mordax)to marine heatwaves and the implication for reef building

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a significant impact on intertidal bivalves and the ecosystems they sustain, causing the destruction of organisms' original habitats. Saccostrea mordax mainly inhabits the intertidal zone around the equator, exhibiting potential tolerance to high temperatures and maybe a species suitable for habitat restoration. However, an understanding about the tolerance mechanism of S. mordax to high temperatures is unclear. It is also unknown the extent to which S. mordax can tolerate repeated heatwaves of increasing intensity and frequency. Here, we simulated the effects of two scenarios of MHWs and measured the physiological and biochemical responses and gene expression spectrum of S. mordax. The predicted responses varied greatly across heatwaves, and no heatwave had a significant impact on the survival of S. mordax. Specifically, there were no statistically significant changes apparent in the standard metabolic rate and the activities of enzymes of the oyster during repeated heatwaves. S. mordax exposed to high-intensity heatwaves enhanced their standard metabolic rate to fuel essential physiological maintenance and increasing activity of SOD and expression of HSP70/90. These strategies are presumably at the expense of functions related to immunity and growth, as best exemplified by significant depressions in activities of enzymes (NaK, CaMg, T-ATP, and AKP) and expression levels of genes (Rab, eEF-2, HMGR, Rac1, SGK, Rab8, etc.). The performance status of S. mordax tends to improve by implementing a suite of less energy-costly compensatory mechanisms at various levels of biological organization when re-exposed to heatwaves. The adaptive abilities shown by S. mordax indicate that they can play a crucial role in the restoration of oyster reefs in tropical seas.

Northeast Pacific warm blobs sustained via extratropical atmospheric teleconnections

Large-scale marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific (NEP), identified here and previously as 'warm blobs', have devastating impacts on regional ecosystems. An anomalous atmospheric ridge over the NEP is known to be crucial for maintaining these warm blobs, also causing abnormally cold temperatures over North America during the cold season. Previous studies linked this ridge to teleconnections from tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. However, it was unclear whether teleconnections from the extratropics could also contribute to the ridge. Here we show that planetary wave trains, triggered by increased rainfall and latent heat release over the Mediterranean Sea accompanied by decreased rainfall over the North Atlantic, can transport wave energy to the NEP, guided by the westerly jet, and induce a quasi-barotropic ridge there. Our findings provide insights into extratropical teleconnections sustaining the NEP ridge, offering a source of potential predictability for the warm blobs and temperature fluctuations over North America.

Assessing combined effects of long-term exposure to copper and marine heatwaves on the reef-forming serpulid Ficopomatus enigmaticus through a biomarker approach

Sessile benthic organisms can be affected by global changes and local pressures, such as metal pollution, that can lead to damages at different levels of biological organization. Effects of exposure to marine heatwaves (MHWs) alone and in combination with environmentally relevant concentration of copper (Cu) were evaluated in the reef-forming tubeworm Ficopomatus enigmaticus using a multi-biomarker approach. Biomarkers of cell membrane damage, enzymatic antioxidant defences, metabolic activity, neurotoxicity, and DNA integrity were analyzed. The exposure to Cu alone did not produce any significant effect. Exposure to MHWs alone produced effects only on metabolic activity (increase of glutathione S-transferase) and energy reserves (decrease in protein content). MHWs in combination with copper was the condition that most influenced the status of cell homeostasis of exposed F. enigmaticus. The combination of MHWs plus Cu exposure induced increase of protein carbonylation and glutathione S-transferase activity, decrease in protein/carbohydrate content and carboxylesterase activity. This study on a reef-forming organism highlighted the additive effect of a climate change-related stressor to metals pollution of marine and brackish waters.

High temperature delays and low temperature accelerates evolution of a new protein phenotype

Since the origin of life, temperatures on earth have fluctuated both on short and long time scales. How such changes affect the rate at which Darwinian evolution can bring forth new phenotypes remains unclear. On the one hand, high temperature may accelerate phenotypic evolution because it accelerates most biological processes. On the other hand, it may slow phenotypic evolution, because proteins are usually less stable at high temperatures and therefore less evolvable. Here, to test these hypotheses experimentally, we evolved a green fluorescent protein in E. coli towards the new phenotype of yellow fluorescence at different temperatures. Yellow fluorescence evolved most slowly at high temperature and most rapidly at low temperature, in contradiction to the first hypothesis. Using high-throughput population sequencing, protein engineering, and biochemical assays, we determined that this is due to the protein-destabilizing effect of neofunctionalizing mutations. Destabilization is highly detrimental at high temperature, where neofunctionalizing mutations cannot be tolerated. Their detrimental effects can be mitigated through excess stability at low temperature, leading to accelerated adaptive evolution. By modifying protein folding stability, temperature alters the accessibility of mutational paths towards high-fitness genotypes. Our observations have broad implications for our understanding of how temperature changes affect evolutionary adaptations and innovations.

Persistence of fish populations to longer, more intense, and more frequent mass mortality events

Over the last decades, mass mortality events have become increasingly common across taxa with sometimes devastating effects on population biomass. In the aquatic environment, fish are sensitive to mass mortality events, particularly at the early life stages that are crucial for population dynamics. However, it has recently been shown for fish, that a single mass mortality event in early life typically does not lead to population collapse. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of extreme events that can cause mass mortality, such as marine heatwaves, are increasing. Here, we show that increasing frequency and intensity of mass mortality events may lead to population collapse. Since the drivers of mass mortality events are diverse, and often linked to climate change, it is challenging to predict the frequency and severity of future mass mortality events. As an alternative, we quantify the probability of population collapse depending on the frequency and intensity as well as the duration of mass mortality events. Based on 39 fish species, we show that the probability of collapse typically increases with increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of the mortality events. In addition, we show that the collapse depends on key traits such as natural mortality, recruitment variation, and density dependence. The presented framework provides quantitative estimates of the sensitivity of fish species to these increasingly common extreme events, which paves the way for potential mitigation actions to alleviate adverse impacts on harvested fish populations across the globe.

Marine heatwaves recurrence aggravates thermal stress in the surfgrass Phyllospadix scouleri

The surfgrass Phyllospadix scouleri grows in highly productive meadows along the Pacific coast of North America. This region has experienced increasingly severe marine heatwaves (MHWs) in recent years. Our study evaluated the impact of consecutive MHWs, simulated in mesocosms, on essential ecophysiological features of P. scouleri. Overall, our findings show that the plants' overall physiological status has been progressively declining. Interestingly, the indicators of physiological stress in photosynthesis only showed up once the initial heat exposure stopped (i.e., during the recovery period). The warming caused increased oxidative damage and a decrease in nitrate uptake rates. However, the levels of non-structural carbohydrates and relative growth rates were not affected. Our findings emphasize the significance of incorporating recovery periods in this type of study as they expose delayed stress responses. Furthermore, experiencing consecutive intense MHWs can harm surfgrasses over time, compromising the health of their meadows and the services they offer to the ecosystem.

Historical and future maximum sea surface temperatures

Marine heat waves affect ocean ecosystems and are expected to become more frequent and intense. Earth system models' ability to reproduce extreme ocean temperature statistics has not been tested quantitatively, making the reliability of their future projections of marine heat waves uncertain. We demonstrate that annual maxima of detrended anomalies in daily mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over 39 years of global satellite observations are described excellently by the generalized extreme value distribution. If models can reproduce the observed distribution of SST extremes, this increases confidence in their marine heat wave projections. 14 CMIP6 models' historical realizations reproduce the satellite-based distribution and its parameters' spatial patterns. We find that maximum ocean temperatures will become warmer (by 1.07° ± 0.17°C under 2°C warming and 2.04° ± 0.18°C under 3.2°C warming). These changes are mainly due to mean SST increases, slightly reinforced by SST seasonality increases. Our study quantifies ocean temperature extremes and gives confidence to model projections of marine heat waves.

A marine heatwave drives significant shifts in pelagic microbiology

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) cause disruption to marine ecosystems, deleteriously impacting macroflora and fauna. However, effects on microorganisms are relatively unknown despite ocean temperature being a major determinant of assemblage structure. Using data from thousands of Southern Hemisphere samples, we reveal that during an "unprecedented" 2015/16 Tasman Sea MHW, temperatures approached or surpassed the upper thermal boundary of many endemic taxa. Temperate microbial assemblages underwent a profound transition to niche states aligned with sites over 1000 km equatorward, adapting to higher temperatures and lower nutrient conditions bought on by the MHW. MHW conditions also modulate seasonal patterns of microbial diversity and support novel assemblage compositions. The most significant affects of MHWs on microbial assemblages occurred during warmer months, when temperatures exceeded the upper climatological bounds. Trends in microbial response across several MHWs in different locations suggest these are emergent properties of temperate ocean warming, which may facilitate monitoring, prediction and adaptation efforts.

On the persistence of near-surface temperature dynamics in a warming world

We consider issues related to the effect of climate change on the persistence of (trend-corrected) temperatures using global gridded data for both land and oceans. We first discuss how the presence of trends and additive noise affects inference about persistence. Ignoring a trend induces an upward bias, while not accounting for noise induces a downward bias. We show that the increase in persistence in the commonly used Warm Spell Duration Index is simply an artifact of increasing temperatures. To purge the impact of both trends and noise, we adopt a simple state-space model. Of separate interest, we document a much larger noise component for land than for oceans. The estimates of the persistence are much larger for oceans than for land. Inspection of the estimates across various subsamples and the application of tests for structural changes suggest the same pattern of persistence for both land and oceans across time, with few minor exceptions. Hence, our results show that surface temperature persistence has remained constant during the observed period.

Rapid climate change alters the environment and biological production of the Indian Ocean

We synthesize and review the impacts of climate change on the physical, chemical, and biological environments of the Indian Ocean and discuss mitigating actions and knowledge gaps. The most recent climate scenarios identify with high certainty that the Indian Ocean (IO) is experiencing one of the fastest surface warming among the world's oceans. The area of surface waters of >28 °C (IO Warm Pool) has significantly increased during 1982-2021 by expanding into the northern-central basins. A significant decrease in pH and aragonite (building blocks of calcified organisms) levels in the IO was observed from 1981-2020 due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There are also signals of decreasing trends in primary productivity in the north, likely related to enhanced stratification and nutrient depletion. Further, the rapid warming of the IO will manifest more extreme weather conditions along its adjacent continents and oceans, including marine heat waves that are likely to reshape biodiversity. However, the impact of climate change beyond the unprecedented warming, increase in marine heat waves, expansion of the IO Warm Pool, and decrease in pH, remains uncertain for many other key variables in the IO including changes in salinity, oxygen, and net primary production. Understanding the response of these physical, chemical, and biological variables to climate change is vital to project future changes in regional fisheries and identify mitigation actions. We accordingly conclude by identifying knowledge gaps and recommending directions for sustainable fisheries and climate impact studies.

Molecular mechanisms that regulate the heat stress response in sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus intermedius) by comparative heat tolerance performance and whole-transcriptome RNA sequencing

In the context of climate change and extreme high temperature, the commercially important sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius suffers high mortality during summer in Northern China. How sea urchins respond to high temperatures is of great concern to academia and industry. How to understand the heat tolerance of sea urchin from the whole transcriptome level. In this study, the heat-resistant S. intermedius bred by our team and its control group were used as the research objects, then we applied whole-transcriptome RNA sequencing to detect differentially expressed mRNAs, microRNAs, long noncoding RNAs that respond to heat stress in the heat-resistant and control S. intermedius. A competitive endogenous RNA (ceRNA) regulatory network was constructed with predicted pairs of differentially expressed mRNAs and noncoding RNAs and revealed the molecular regulatory mechanisms in S. intermedius responding to heat stress. A functional analysis suggested that the ceRNAs were involved in basal metabolism, calcium ion transport, endoplasmic reticulum stress, and apoptosis. This is the whole-transcriptomic analysis of S. intermedius under heat stress to propose ceRNA networks that will provide a basis for studying the potential functions of long noncoding RNAs and miRNAs in the heat stress response in S. intermedius and provide a theoretical basis for the study of the molecular mechanism of sea urchins in response to environmental changes.

Dominance of the coral Pocillopora acuta around Phuket Island in the Andaman Sea, Thailand

Pocillopora damicornis (Linnaeus, 1758), a species complex, consists of several genetic lineages, some of which likely represent reproductively isolated species, including the species Pocillopora acuta Lamarck, 1816. Pocillopora acuta can exhibit similar morphological characteristics as P. damicornis, thus making it difficult to identify species-level taxonomic units. To determine whether the P. damicornis-like colonies on the reefs in the Andaman Sea (previously often identified as P. damicornis) consist of different species, we sampled individual colonies at five sites along a 50 km coastal stretch at Phuket Island and four island sites towards Krabi Province, Thailand. We sequenced 210 coral samples for the mitochondrial open reading frame and identified six distinct haplotypes, all belonging to P. acuta according to the literature. Recently, P. acuta was observed to efficiently recolonize heat-damaged reefs in Thailand as well as globally, making it a potentially important coral species in future reefs. Specifically in the light of global change, this study underscores the importance of high-resolution molecular species recognition, since taxonomic units are important factors for population genetic studies, and the latter are crucial for management and conservation efforts.

Effects of heatwave events on the seagrass-dwelling crustacean Pandalus latirostris in a subarctic lagoon

Heatwaves often cause mass mortality of organisms in seagrass areas, and they eventually alter some ecological functions of seagrass ecosystems. In subarctic regions, however, the effects of heatwaves on seagrass areas are still unclear. In a subarctic lagoon of northern Japan, we examined the effects of heatwaves on the Hokkai shrimp, Pandalus latirostris, a commercially exploited species distributed in seagrass areas of northern Japan and eastern Russia. A long-term survey of the surface water temperature in the lagoon clarified a gradual increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwave events since 1999. Surveys of the water temperature at a seagrass area in the lagoon during summer have also demonstrated that the maximum water temperature had been exceeding 25 °C, unusually high for this location, regardless of water depth. These results indicate that the effects of heatwaves in seagrass areas in a subarctic region had become as severe as those in tropical and temperate regions. We also experimentally evaluated the effects of this unusually high water temperature (25 °C) on the survival of P. latirostris by changing the length of exposure time. Some individuals suffered damage to their intestinal mucosal structure after exposure for 12 h or longer, and all individuals died after exposure for 120 h. Our results suggest that heatwaves possibly cause mass mortality in P. latirostris in the following sequence: heat stress, damage to the intestinal epithelial mucosal structure, degradation of nutrient absorption and immunological function of the intestine, energy deficiency and disease infection, and finally mortality. This study, conducted in subarctic closed waters, concludes that it is essential to become familiar with not only trends in heatwaves but also the intermittent occurrence of unusually high water temperature in seagrass areas in order to better understand the process of mortality of organisms that inhabit these ecosystems.

A marine protected area network does not confer community structure resilience to a marine heatwave across coastal ecosystems

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have gained attention as a conservation tool for enhancing ecosystem resilience to climate change. However, empirical evidence explicitly linking MPAs to enhanced ecological resilience is limited and mixed. To better understand whether MPAs can buffer climate impacts, we tested the resistance and recovery of marine communities to the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific heatwave in the largest scientifically designed MPA network in the world off the coast of California, United States. The network consists of 124 MPAs (48 no-take state marine reserves, and 76 partial-take or special regulation conservation areas) implemented at different times, with full implementation completed in 2012. We compared fish, benthic invertebrate, and macroalgal community structure inside and outside of 13 no-take MPAs across rocky intertidal, kelp forest, shallow reef, and deep reef nearshore habitats in California's Central Coast region from 2007 to 2020. We also explored whether MPA features, including age, size, depth, proportion rock, historic fishing pressure, habitat diversity and richness, connectivity, and fish biomass response ratios (proxy for ecological performance), conferred climate resilience for kelp forest and rocky intertidal habitats spanning 28 MPAs across the full network. Ecological communities dramatically shifted due to the marine heatwave across all four nearshore habitats, and MPAs did not facilitate habitat-wide resistance or recovery. Only in protected rocky intertidal habitats did community structure significantly resist marine heatwave impacts. Community shifts were associated with a pronounced decline in the relative proportion of cold water species and an increase in warm water species. MPA features did not explain resistance or recovery to the marine heatwave. Collectively, our findings suggest that MPAs have limited ability to mitigate the impacts of marine heatwaves on community structure. Given that mechanisms of resilience to climate perturbations are complex, there is a clear need to expand assessments of ecosystem-wide consequences resulting from acute climate-driven perturbations, and the potential role of regulatory protection in mitigating community structure changes.

The upper temperature and hypoxia limits of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) depend greatly on the method utilized

In this study, Atlantic salmon were: (i) implanted with heart rate (fH) data storage tags (DSTs), pharmacologically stimulated to maximum fH, and warmed at 10°C h-1 (i.e. tested using a 'rapid screening protocol'); (ii) fitted with Doppler® flow probes, recovered in respirometers and given a critical thermal maximum (CTmax) test at 2°C h-1; and (iii) implanted with fH DSTs, recovered in a tank with conspecifics for 4 weeks, and had their CTmax determined at 2°C h-1. Fish in respirometers and those free-swimming were also exposed to a stepwise decrease in water oxygen level (100% to 30% air saturation) to determine the oxygen level at which bradycardia occurred. Resting fH was much lower in free-swimming fish than in those in respirometers (∼49 versus 69 beats min-1) and this was reflected in their scope for fH (∼104 versus 71 beats min-1) and CTmax (27.7 versus 25.9°C). Further, the Arrhenius breakpoint temperature and temperature at peak fH for free-swimming fish were considerably greater than for those tested in the respirometers and given a rapid screening protocol (18.4, 18.1 and 14.6°C; and 26.5, 23.2 and 20.2°C, respectively). Finally, the oxygen level at which bradycardia occurred was significantly higher in free-swimming salmon than in those in respirometers (∼62% versus 53% air saturation). These results: highlight the limitations of some lab-based methods of determining fH parameters and thermal tolerance in fishes; and suggest that scope for fH may be a more reliable and predictive measure of a fish's upper thermal tolerance than their peak fH.

The first arriving virus shapes within-host viral diversity during natural epidemics

Viral diversity has been discovered across scales from host individuals to populations. However, the drivers of viral community assembly are still largely unknown. Within-host viral communities are formed through co-infections, where the interval between the arrival times of viruses may vary. Priority effects describe the timing and order in which species arrive in an environment, and how early colonizers impact subsequent community assembly. To study the effect of the first-arriving virus on subsequent infection patterns of five focal viruses, we set up a field experiment using naïve Plantago lanceolata plants as sentinels during a seasonal virus epidemic. Using joint species distribution modelling, we find both positive and negative effects of early season viral infection on late season viral colonization patterns. The direction of the effect depends on both the host genotype and which virus colonized the host early in the season. It is well established that co-occurring viruses may change the virulence and transmission of viral infections. However, our results show that priority effects may also play an important, previously unquantified role in viral community assembly. The assessment of these temporal dynamics within a community ecological framework will improve our ability to understand and predict viral diversity in natural systems.

Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable

Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time.

Physiological and biochemical responses of clams to recurrent marine heatwaves

In the past decade, the frequency, intensity and duration of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the South China Sea have been increasing strikingly, resulting in serious impacts on intertidal bivalves and their ecosystems. The Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum, is one of the most ecologically and economically important bivalve species in the South China Sea, yet very little is known about its fate under intensifying MHWs events. Here, we examined how R. philippinarum responded to two consecutive scenarios of MHWs, with each composed of 4 °C and 8 °C rises of seawater temperatures, respectively. Up to 87% of Manila clams survived recurrent MHWs events, and significant increases in standard metabolic rate occurred predominantly under extreme conditions (+8 °C), indicating that the clams could trigger compensatory mechanisms to mitigate MHWs-induced thermal stress. Following acute and repeated exposures to MHWs, Manila clams showed similar responses in enzymes underpinning energy metabolism (NKA, CMA, and T-ATP), antioxidant defence (SOD, CAT, and MDA), and biomineralization (AKP and ACP), most of which exhibited significantly increasing and then decreasing trends with the intensification of MHWs. Of eight genes associated with physiological tolerance and fitness, ATAD3A, PFK, SOD, and C3 were significantly down-regulated in response to recurrent MHWs events, demonstrating the certain resistance to MHWs. These findings provide a better understanding that marine bivalves hold the potential to acclimate simulated MHWs events from the physiological and molecular processes.

Simulated upwelling and marine heatwave events promote similar growth rates but differential domoic acid toxicity in Pseudo-nitzschia australis

Along the west coast of the United States, highly toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms have been associated with two contrasting regional phenomena: seasonal upwelling and marine heatwaves. While upwelling delivers cool water rich in pCO2 and an abundance of macronutrients to the upper water column, marine heatwaves instead lead to warmer surface waters, low pCO2, and reduced nutrient availability. Understanding Pseudo-nitzschia dynamics under these two conditions is important for bloom forecasting and coastal management, yet the mechanisms driving toxic bloom formation during contrasting upwelling vs. heatwave conditions remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of what drives Pseudo-nitzschia australis growth and toxicity during these events, multiple-driver scenario or 'cluster' experiments were conducted using temperature, pCO2, and nutrient levels reflecting conditions during upwelling (13 °C, 900 ppm pCO2, replete nutrients) and two intensities of marine heatwaves (19 °C or 20.5 °C, 250 ppm pCO2, reduced macronutrients). While P. australis grew equally well under both heatwave and upwelling conditions, similar to what has been observed in the natural environment, cells were only toxic in the upwelling treatment. We also conducted single-driver experiments to gain a mechanistic understanding of which drivers most impact P. australis growth and toxicity. These experiments indicated that nitrogen concentration and N:P ratio were likely the drivers that most influenced domoic acid production, while the impacts of temperature or pCO2 concentration were less pronounced. Together, these experiments may help to provide both mechanistic and holistic perspectives on toxic P. australis blooms in the dynamic and changing coastal ocean, where cells interact simultaneously with multiple altered environmental variables.

Effects of basin-scale climate modes and upwelling on nearshore marine heatwaves and cold spells in the California Current

Marine heatwaves and cold spells (MHWs/MCSs) have been observed to be increasing globally in frequency and intensity based on satellite remote sensing and continue to pose a major threat to marine ecosystems worldwide. Despite this, there are limited in-situ based observational studies in the very shallow nearshore region, particularly in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling Systems (EBUS). We analyzed a unique dataset collected in shallow waters along central California spanning more than four decades (1978-2020) and assessed links with basin-scale climate modes [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño (MEI)] and regional-scale wind-driven upwelling. We found no significant increase/decrease in MHW/MCS frequency, duration, or intensity over the last four decades, but did observe considerable interannual variability linked with basin-scale climate modes. Additionally, there was a decrease in both MHW/MCS occurrence during the upwelling season, and the initiation of individual MHWs/MCSs coincided with anomalous upwelling. Most notably, the co-occurrence of warm (cold) phases of the PDO and MEI with negative (positive) upwelling anomalies strongly enhanced the relative frequency of positive (negative) temperature anomalies and MHW (MCS) days. Collectively, both basin-scale variability and upwelling forcing play a key role in predicting extreme events and shaping nearshore resilience in EBUS.

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface-level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface- and shallow-foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator-prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface-level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species- and community-level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub-mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

The 2022 summer marine heatwaves and coral bleaching in China's Greater Bay Area

From July to August 2022, scleractinian coral communities in China's Greater Bay Area (GBA) in the northern South China Sea (nSCS) experienced an unprecedented bleaching event, despite the fact that coral communities in this area are often considered coral thermal refugia due to their high latitude distribution. Field surveys of six sites covering three main coral distribution areas of the GBA revealed that coral bleaching occurred at all sites. Bleaching was more severe in shallow water (1-3 m) than in deep water (4-6 m), as indicated by both percent bleached cover (51.80 ± 10.04% vs. 7.09 ± 7.37%) and bleached colonies (45.86 ± 11.22% vs. 6.58 ± 6.53%). Coral genera Acropora, Favites, Montipora, Platygyra, Pocillopora, and Porites showed high susceptibility to bleaching, and Acropora and Pocillopora suffered high post-bleaching mortality. In the three areas surveyed, analysis of oceanographic data detected marine heatwaves (MHWs) during the summer, with mean intensities between 1.62 and 1.97 °C and durations between 5 and 22 days. These MHWs were primarily driven by increased shortwave radiation due to strong western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), combined with reduced mixing between the surface and deep upwelling waters due to reduced wind speed. Comparing with histological oceanographic data showed that the 2022 MHWs were unprecedented, and there was a significant increase in the frequency, intensity, and total days of MHWs during 1982-2022. Furthermore, the heterogeneous distribution of summer MHW characteristics indicates that the coastal upwelling may modulate the spatial distribution of summer MHWs in nSCS through its cooling effect. Overall, our study indicates that MHWs may have affected the structure of the subtropical coral communities in the nSCS, and impaired their potential as thermal refugia.

Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change

Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%-35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%-13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).

Oceanic mesoscale eddies as crucial drivers of global marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme warm water events in the ocean, exerting devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. A comprehensive knowledge of physical processes controlling MHW life cycles is pivotal to improve MHW forecast capacity, yet it is still lacking. Here, we use a historical simulation from a global eddy-resolving climate model with improved representation of MHWs, and show that heat flux convergence by oceanic mesoscale eddies acts as a dominant driver of MHW life cycles over most parts of the global ocean. In particular, the mesoscale eddies make an important contribution to growth and decay of MHWs, whose characteristic spatial scale is comparable or even larger than that of mesoscale eddies. The effect of mesoscale eddies is spatially heterogeneous, becoming more dominant in the western boundary currents and their extensions, the Southern Ocean, as well as the eastern boundary upwelling systems. This study reveals the crucial role of mesoscale eddies in controlling the global MHW life cycles and highlights that using eddy-resolving ocean models is essential, albeit not necessarily fully sufficient, for accurate MHW forecasts.

Heat stress, especially when coupled with high light, accelerates the decline of tropical seagrass (Enhalus acoroides) meadows

Heat stress threatens the survival of seagrass, but its damage mechanisms are unclear. In this study, the results reveal that heat stress exceeding 36 °C in the dark caused inactivation of the PSII reaction center, damaging both the PSII donor and acceptor sides in Enhalus acoroides. High light further increased the damage to the photosynthetic apparatus under heat stress. The stronger the heat stress under high light, the harder the recovery of photosynthetic activity. Therefore, during ebb tide at noon in nature, heat stress combined with strong light would induce a significant, even irreversible decrease in photosynthetic activity. Moreover, the heat stress hindered the transcription of psbA and RuBisCO, enhanced respiratory O₂, and induced severe peroxidation even if the SOD, APX, and GPX activities significantly improved. The results clearly suggest that heat stress, especially when coupled with high light, may be an important cause for the decline of E. acoroides meadows.

Heatwave restructures marine intertidal communities across a stress gradient

Significant questions remain about how ecosystems that are structured by abiotic stress will be affected by climate change. Warmer temperatures are hypothesized to shift species along abiotic gradients such that distributions track changing environments where physical conditions allow. However, community-scale impacts of extreme warming in heterogeneous landscapes are likely to be more complex. We investigated the impacts of a multiyear marine heatwave on intertidal community dynamics and zonation on a wave-swept rocky coastline along the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada. Leveraging an 8-year time series with high seaweed taxonomic resolution (116 taxa) that was established 3 years prior to the heatwave, we document major shifts in zonation and abundance of populations that led to substantial reorganization at the community level. The heatwave was associated with shifts in primary production away from upper elevations through declines in seaweed cover and partial replacement by invertebrates. At low elevations, seaweed cover remained stable or recovered rapidly following decline, being balanced by increases in some species and decreases in others. These results illustrate that, rather than shifting community zonation uniformly along abiotic stress gradients, intense and lasting warming events may restructure patterns of ecological dominance and reduce total habitability of ecosystems, especially at extreme ends of pre-existing abiotic gradients.

Oceanic differences in coral-bleaching responses to marine heatwaves

Anomalously high ocean temperatures have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration over the last several decades because of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming and marine heatwaves. Reef-building corals are sensitive to such temperature anomalies that commonly lead to coral bleaching, mortality, and changes in community structure. Yet, despite these overarching effects, there are geographical differences in thermal regimes, evolutionary histories, and past disturbances that may lead to different bleaching responses of corals within and among oceans. Here we examined the overall bleaching responses of corals in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using both a spatially explicit Bayesian mixed-effects model and a deep-learning neural-network model. We used a 40-year global dataset encompassing 23,288 coral-reef surveys at 11,058 sites in 88 countries, from 1980 to 2020. Focusing on ocean-wide differences we assessed the relationships between the percentage of bleached corals and different temperature-related metrics alongside a suite of environmental variables. We found that while high sea-surface temperatures were consistently, and strongly, related to coral bleaching within all oceans, there were clear geographical differences in the relationships between coral bleaching and most environmental variables. For instance, there was an increase in coral bleaching with depth in the Atlantic Ocean whereas the opposite was observed in the Indian Ocean, and no clear trend could be seen in the Pacific Ocean. The standard deviation of thermal-stress anomalies was negatively related to coral bleaching in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but not in the Indian Ocean. Globally, coral bleaching has progressively occurred at higher temperatures over the last four decades within the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, although, again, there were differences among the three oceans. Together, such patterns highlight that historical circumstances and geographical differences in oceanographic conditions play a central role in contemporary coral-bleaching responses.

Thermal tolerance limits and physiological traits as indicators of Hediste diversicolor's acclimation capacity to global and local change drivers

Global projections predict significant increases in ocean temperature and changes in ocean chemistry, including salinity variations by 2100. This has led to a substantial interest in the study of thermal ecophysiology, as temperature is a major factor shaping marine ectotherm communities. However, responses to temperature may be influenced by other factors such as salinity, highlighting the relevance of multiple stressor studies. In the present work, we experimentally evaluated the thermal tolerance of the marine ragworm Hediste diversicolor under predicted global change scenarios. Organisms were subjected to an experimental trial under control (24 °C), and two temperature treatment scenarios (ocean warming +3 °C - (27 °C) and heat wave +6 °C - (30 °C)), combined with salinity variations (20 and 30) in a full factorial design for 29 days. Environmental data from the field were collected during 2019 and 2020. At day 30 post exposure, upper thermal limits (Critical Thermal Maximum - CTMax), thermal safety margins (TSM) and acclimation capacity were measured. Higher acclimation temperatures led to higher thermal tolerance limits, confirming that H. diversicolor features some physiological plasticity, acclimation capacity and a positive thermal safety margin. This margin was greater considering in situ temperature data from 2019 than maximum temperatures for 2020 (CTMax > maximum habitat temperature-MHT). Moreover, smaller organisms displayed higher upper thermal limits suggesting that thermal tolerance is size dependent. Ragworms subjected to higher salinity also showed a higher CTMax than those acclimated to lower salinity. However, temperature and salinity showed an additive effect on CTMax, as no significant interaction was detected. We conclude that H. diversicolor can easily acclimate to increased water temperature, independently of salinity variations. Given the key role of ragworms in food webs in estuaries and coastal lagoons, substrate bioturbation and aquaculture, this information is relevant to support conservation actions, optimize culture protocols and identify thermal resistant strains.