Disentangling the numbers behind agriculture-driven tropical deforestation

Understanding local connectivity and complexity in the skeleton of deforestation

Current spatial analyses of deforestation predominantly focus on quantification, often overlooking the geometric and topological configurations that are essential for formulating spatially concrete remedial actions. Skeletons and local connected fractal dimension (LCFD) are established techniques that have been used to summarise geometric features and capture connectivity patterns. The present study analysed deforested areas in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve at three time points from 1990 to 2018. The skeleton captured 62%, 44%, and 40% of the original deforested patches, respectively, and the complexity of connectivity patterns increased over time. A spatially explicit characterisation of the deforested patches was conducted by combining the LCFD and topological descriptors, which enabled the definition of five prioritisation levels for informed decision-making. In addition, we observed an increase in the complexity of pixel neighbourhood relationships over time. In conclusion, the spatial characterisation of the deforestation skeleton serves to further understand the dynamics of deforestation expansion from the local to the regional scale by highlighting complex connections that are significant for forest protection and mitigation efforts.

A possible role of NDVI time series from Landsat Mission to characterize lemurs habitats degradation in Madagascar

Deforestation is one of the main drivers of environmental degradation around the world. Slash-and-burn is a common practice, performed in tropical forests to create new agricultural lands for local communities. In Madagascar, this practice affects many natural areas that host lemur habitats. Reforestation within nature reserves including fast-growing native species is desirable, for example in this area using native bamboo with the aim of restoring the habitat increased plantation success. In this context, the extensive detection of forest disturbances can effectively support restoration actions, providing an overall framework to address priorities and maximizing ecological benefits. In this work and with respect to a study area located around the Maromizaha New Protected Area (Madagascar), an analysis was conducted based on a time series of NDVI maps from Landsat missions (GSD = 30 m). The period between 1991 and 2022 was investigated to detect the location and moment of forest disturbances with the additional aim of quantifying the level of damage and of the recovery process at every disturbed location. It is worth noting that the Maromizaha New Protected Area currently hosts 12 species of endangered lemurs, highlighting its pivotal role as a critical conservation and restoration priority due to the ecological significance of preserving habitat integrity to sustain these threatened species. Detection was operated at pixel level by analyzing the local temporal profile of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - NDVI (yearly step). Time of the eventual detected disturbance was found within the profile looking for the first derivative minimum. Significance of NDVI change was evaluated testing the Chebyshev condition and the following parameters mapped: i) year of disturbance; ii) significance of NDVI change; iii) level of damage; (iv) year of vegetation recovery; (v) rate of recovery. Accordingly, the level of the damage and the rate of recovery were used to estimate resistance and resilience indices of lemurs' habitat (inherently forested areas). Finally, temporal trends of both forest loss and recovery were analyzed to investigate potential impacts onto local lemur populations and, more in general, to the entire Reserve.

Explosive growth of secondary roads is linked to widespread tropical deforestation

In the tropics and beyond, roads are key proximate drivers of environmental impacts, including forest fragmentation,1,2 fires,3 mining,4,5 and land clearing.6,7,8 Such impacts may be amplified for the initial roads constructed in intact forests-which we term "first-cut roads"-which often promote a rash of associated secondary roads branching off the new infrastructure.9,10,11,12,13 These secondary roads in turn can dramatically elevate forest and biodiversity losses.10,14,15 Although widely seen as a conservation concern,12,15,16,17 the magnitude and effects of secondary road development have not been previously quantified. Without such information, impact assessment procedures for road projects risk misjudging the level of expected forest loss, hampering decision-making.16,18,19,20 Here, we quantify the environmental impacts of both first-cut and secondary roads in three of the world's major tropical regions where high-quality road maps have recently become available: the Brazilian Amazon, the Congo Basin, and New Guinea. We identified 92 first-cut roads across our study region for which we quantified the length of adjoining secondary roads and the area of related forest loss and degradation. On average, we found 4.8, 9.8, and 49.1 km of secondary road for every kilometer of first-cut road in the Congo Basin, New Guinea, and Brazilian Amazon regions, respectively. Forest loss and degradation associated with these secondary roads was remarkably heavy, being 31.5, 22.2, and 305.2 times greater, respectively, than that directly linked with first-cut roads. Our findings provide key insights into the potential scale and extent of forest loss and degradation that will emerge with proposed roads and development corridors in tropical forests.

Novel wildfire regimes under climate change and human activity: patterns, driving mechanisms and ecological impacts

Fire regime refers to the statistical characteristics of fire events within specific spatio-temporal contexts, shaped by interactions among climatic conditions, vegetation types and natural or anthropogenic ignitions. Under the dual pressures of intensified global climate changes and human activities, fire regimes worldwide are undergoing unprecedented transformations, marked by increasing frequency of large and intense wildfires in some regions, yet declining fire activity in others. These fire regime changes (FRC) may drive responses in ecosystem structure and function across spatio-temporal scales, posing significant challenges to socio-economic adaptation and mitigation capacities. To date, research on the patterns and mechanisms of global FRC has rapidly expanded, with investigations into driving factors revealing complex interactions. This review synthesizes research advancements in FRC by analysing 17 articles from this special issue and 249 additional publications retrieved from the Web of Science. We systematically outline the key characteristics of FRC, geographical hotspots of fire regime transformation, critical fire-prone vegetation types, primary climatic and anthropogenic drivers and ecosystem adaptations and feedbacks. Finally, we highlight research frontiers and identify key approaches to advance this field and emphasize an interdisciplinary perspective in understanding and adapting to FRC.This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel fire regimes under climate changes and human influences: impacts, ecosystem responses and feedbacks'.

Global biodiversity loss from outsourced deforestation

Globalization increasingly allows countries to externalize the environmental costs of land use, including biodiversity loss1. So far, we have a very incomplete understanding of how countries cause biodiversity loss outside their own borders through their demand for agricultural and forestry products grown in other countries2. Here we quantify the global range losses to forest vertebrates from 2001 to 2015 caused by deforestation attributable to 24 developed countries by means of their consumption of products obtained through global supply chains. We show that these driver countries are responsible for much greater cumulative range loss to species outside their own borders than within them. These international impacts were concentrated geographically, allowing us to map global hotspots of outsourced losses of biodiversity. Countries had the greatest external impacts on species occurring in nearby regions. However, in a few cases, developed countries also inflicted disproportionate harm on vertebrates in distant countries.

Choosing fit-for-purpose biodiversity impact indicators for agriculture in the Brazilian Cerrado ecoregion

Understanding and acting on biodiversity loss requires robust tools linking biodiversity impacts to land use change, the biggest threat to terrestrial biodiversity. Here we estimate agriculture's impact on the Brazilian Cerrado's biodiversity using three approaches-countryside Species-Area Relationship, Species Threat Abatement and Restoration and Species Habitat Index. By using same input data, we show how indicator scope and design affects impact assessments and resulting decision-support. All indicators show agriculture expansion's increasing pressure on biodiversity. Results suggest that metrics are complementary, providing distinctly different insight into biodiversity change drivers and impacts. Meaningful applications of biodiversity indicators therefore require compatibility between focal questions and indicator choice regarding temporal, spatial, and ecological perspectives on impact and drivers. Backward-looking analyses focused on historical land use change and accountability are best served by the countryside-Species Area Relationship and the Species Habitat Index. Forward-looking analyses of impact risk hotspots and global extinctions mitigation are best served by the Species Threat Abatement and Restoration.

Adoption of improved crop varieties limited biodiversity losses, terrestrial carbon emissions, and cropland expansion in the tropics

Research investments in crop improvements, including by national and international agricultural research centers, have made significant contributions to raising yields of staple food crops in developing countries. Although mostly intended to improve food security and rural incomes, innovations in crop production also have major implications for the environment. Building on the latest productivity estimates from historical crop improvements in developing countries and using a gridded (0.25 degrees) equilibrium model of global agriculture, we assess the impacts of improved crop varieties on cropland use, threatened biodiversity, and terrestrial carbon stocks over 1961-2015. We replicate a historical baseline and produce a counterfactual scenario which shows the impact of omitting productivity improvements from these technologies. The results show that higher crop productivity generally lowered commodity prices, which reduced incentives to expand cropland except in those areas where productivity gains outweighed price declines. The net global effect of technology adoption was to limit conversion of natural habitat to agricultural use, although it did cause cropland to expand in some areas. We estimate that adoption of improved crop varieties in developing countries saved on net 16.03 [95% CI, 12.33 to 20.89] million hectares worldwide. With more natural habitat preserved, around 1,043 [95% CI, 616 to 1,503] threatened animal and plant species extinctions were avoided over this period. In addition, net land use savings from the improved crop varieties resulted in avoided terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of around 5.35 [95% CI, 3.75 to 7.22] billion metric tons CO2 equivalent retained in terrestrial carbon stocks.

Sustainable high-yield farming is essential for bending the curve of biodiversity loss

Food production does more damage to wild species than any other sector of human activity, yet how best to limit its growing impact is greatly contested. Reviewing progress to date in interventions that encourage less damaging diets or cut food loss and waste, we conclude that both are essential but far from sufficient. In terms of production, field studies from five continents quantifying the population-level impacts of land sharing, land sparing, intermediate and mixed approaches for almost 2000 individually assessed species show that implementing high-yield farming to spare natural habitats consistently outperforms land sharing, particularly for species of highest conservation concern. Sparing also offers considerable potential for mitigating climate change. Delivering land sparing nevertheless raises several important challenges-in particular, identifying and promoting higher yielding farm systems that are less environmentally harmful than current industrial agriculture, and devising mechanisms to limit rebound effects and instead tie yield gains to habitat conservation. Progress will depend on conservationists forging novel collaborations with the agriculture sector. While this may be challenging, we suggest that without it there is no realistic prospect of slowing biodiversity loss.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

Persistent Effects of Landscape Context on Recruitment Dynamics During Secondary Succession of Tropical Forests

Large-scale reforestation is promoted as an important strategy to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss. A persistent challenge for efforts to restore ecosystems at scale is how to accelerate ecological processes, particularly natural regeneration. Yet, despite being recognized as an important barrier to the recovery of diverse plant communities in tropical agricultural landscapes, the impacts of dispersal limitation on natural regeneration in secondary forests-and especially how this changes as these forests grow older-are still poorly studied. In a region where animals have been shown to be the dominant seed dispersers, we evaluate the impacts of proximity to a connected network of narrow streamside strips of forest (SSF) on recruitment in 1-40-year-old secondary forests. We used 8 years of annual census data from 45 sites with paired plots, one directly adjoining an SSF and the other further uphill (henceforth "landscape context"), and a null model approach to test the effects of proximity to SSFs and basal area, while accounting for variation in soil, topography, and distance between plots and stand structure. In general, we found that landscape context affects multiple aspects of recruitment, including species diversity and the proportion of rarer and less-widely distributed species among the recruits. Unexpectedly, this effect did not weaken over time, despite a fast increase in stand basal area and diversity. This suggests that forest development over the first decades of succession may not be sufficient to attract the animals that disperse rarer tree species. Our results provide empirical evidence to guide restoration initiatives in agricultural landscapes in tropical regions, principally prioritizing the restoration of forest corridor networks along streams, while also highlighting the knowledge gap about restoring animal dispersers in secondary forests.

Mantled howler monkeys (Alouatta palliata) alter activity and spatial cohesion across a continuous forest and forest fragment in Costa Rica

Habitat loss due to deforestation is a primary threat to global biodiversity. Clearing tropical rainforests for agriculture or development leads to forest fragmentation. Forest fragments contain fewer large trees and provide lower food availability for primates compared to continuous forests. Mantled howler monkeys (Alouatta palliata) inhabit fragmented rainforests and may need to alter their activity budgets and spatial cohesion to mitigate competition and conserve energy in fragments where food quality is lower. We compared howler monkey activity and spatial cohesion across a small forest fragment (La Suerte Biological Research Station, LSBRS) and a large, continuous forest (La Selva Research Station) in Costa Rica. We predicted that monkeys at LSBRS would rest more, feed more, travel less, and be less spatially cohesive compared to La Selva to contend with fewer resources in the small fragment. Using instantaneous scan sampling at 2-min intervals during 30-min focal samples, we recorded activity and the number of individuals within 5 m of the focal animal. We collected 1505 h of data from 2017-2024. Monkey activity and spatial cohesion differed significantly across sites. As predicted, monkeys at LSBRS spent more time feeding than at La Selva, but contrary to our predictions, they rested less and traveled more. The mean number of individuals within 5 m was significantly lower at LSBRS compared to La Selva. The ability to modify their activity and spatial cohesion in response to fragmentation provides insight into how primates can contend with fewer resources and higher competition in changing ecosystems worldwide.

Cultivable root endophytic fungi associated with Acrocomia aculeata and its antagonistic activity against phytopathogenic oomycetes

Macaw palm (Acrocomia aculeata Jacq.) is a palm, native to Brazilian territory that stands out due to the amount of oil produced with applications in the biodiesel industry, cosmetics, and food. Its commercial exploitation in Brazil, including phytosanitary management is based on concepts and practices of regenerative agriculture, which has the responsibility of sustainable cultivation by avoiding, for example, the use of chemical pesticides. Recently, root and stem rot disease were reported in macaw palm seedlings caused by Phytophthora palmivora. Managing this plant pathogen is complex, and the chemical control of this soil-borne oomycete is not viable, in addition to the negative impact on the environment. Many microorganisms are studied and used as biological control agents (BCAs) against pathogens, among them the community of endophytic fungi associated with plants. This is a sustainable biotechnological alternative for plant disease control. The community of cultivable endophytic fungi associated with healthy roots of macaw palm was explored using the extinction cultivation technique and a screening was carried out to select potential antagonists against oomycetes through the dual culture test. Specific gene regions from the best isolates were amplified for identification. A total of 250 isolates were obtained, and 46 were selected for in vitro tests against representatives of phytopathogenic oomycetes. After tests against Phytophthora heterospora, Phytophthora palmivora, Pythium aphanidermatum, and Pythium deliense, two isolates were selected as potential antagonists. The phylogenetic analysis of selected isolates showed that they belong to two different species: Talaromyces sayulitensis COAD 3605 and Epicoccum italicum COAD 3608. The percentage of inhibition of phytopathogenic oomycetes testedwas until 82% in the antagonism tests conducted. From the 46 isolates selected, only 2 were selected which showed great antagonistic activity towards all oomycetes tested. These fungi will be used in upcoming studies that aim to determine the effectiveness of endophytes in controlling diseases caused by oomycetes in the field.

Redesigning payments for ecosystem services to increase cost-effectiveness

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) are a widely used approach to incentivize conservation efforts such as avoided deforestation. Although PES effectiveness has received significant scholarly attention, how PES design modifications can improve program outcomes is less explored. We present findings from a randomized trial in Mexico that tested whether a PES contract that requires enrollees to enroll all of their forest is more effective than the traditional PES contract that allows them to choose which forest parcels to enroll. The modification's aim is to prevent landowners from enrolling only parcels they planned to conserve anyway while leaving aside other parcels to deforest. We find that the full-enrollment treatment significantly reduces deforestation compared to the traditional contract (41% less deforestation; p = 0.01). As a result, cost-effectiveness of the PES program quadruples. This result highlights the potential to substantially improve the efficacy of conservation payments through simple contract modifications.

Charting the future of high forest low deforestation jurisdictions

High forest low deforestation jurisdictions (HFLDs) contain many of the world's last intact forests with historically low deforestation. Since carbon financing typically uses historical deforestation rates as baselines, HFLDs facing the prospect of future threats may receive insufficient incentives to be protected. We found that from 2002 to 2020, HFLDs (n = 310) experienced 44% higher deforestation rates than their historical baselines, and 60 HFLDs underwent periods of high deforestation (deforestation rate > 0.501%) at 0.983 ± 0.649% (mean ± SD)-a rate 7.5 times higher than the 10-y historical baseline of all HFLDs. For HFLDs to receive sufficient carbon finance requires baselines that can better reflect future deforestation trajectories of HFLDs. Using an empirical multifactorial model, we show that most contemporary HFLDs are expected to undergo higher deforestation from 2020 to 2038 than their historical baselines, with 72 HFLDs likely (>66% probability) to undergo high deforestation. Over the next 18 y, HFLDs are expected to lose 2.16 Mha y-1 of forests corresponding to 585 ± 74 MtCO2e y-1 (mean ± SE) of emissions. Efforts to protect HFLD forests from future threats will be crucial. In particular, improving baselining methods is key to ensuring that sufficient financing can flow to HFLDs to prevent deforestation.

Impacts of deforestation and land use/land cover change on carbon stock dynamics in Jomoro District, Ghana

Tropical deforestation in the African continent plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and bears significant implications in terms of climate change and sustainable development. Especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where more than two-thirds of the population rely on forest and woodland resources for their livelihoods, deforestation and land use changes for crop production lead to a substantial loss of ecosystem-level carbon stock. Unfortunately, the impacts of deforestation and land use change can be more critical than in any other region, but these are poorly quantified. We analyse changes in the main carbon pools (above- and below-ground, soil and litter, respectively) after deforestation and land use/land cover change, for the Jomoro District (Ghana), by assessing the initial reference level of carbon stock for primary forest and the subsequent stock changes and dynamics as a consequence of conversion to the secondary forest and to five different tree plantations (rubber, coconut, cocoa, oil palm, and mixed plantations) on a total of 72 plots. Results indicate overall a statistically significant carbon loss across all the land uses/covers and for all the carbon pools compared to the primary forest with the total carbon stock loss ranging between 35% and 85% but with no statistically significant differences observed in the comparison between primary forest and mixed plantations and secondary forest. Results also suggest that above-ground carbon and soil organic carbon are the primary pools contributing to the total carbon stocks but with opposite trends of carbon loss and accumulation. Strategies for sustainable development, policies to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, carbon stock enhancement (REDD+), and planning for sustainable land use management should carefully consider the type of conversion and carbon stock dynamics behind land use change for a win-win strategy while preserving carbon stocks potential in tropical ecosystems.

Enhanced agricultural carbon sinks provide benefits for farmers and the climate

Carbon sequestration on agricultural land, albeit long-time neglected, offers substantial mitigation potential. Here we project, using an economic land-use model, that these options offer cumulative mitigation potentials comparable to afforestation by 2050 at 160 USD2022 tCO2 equivalent (tCO2e-1), with most of it located in the Global South. Carbon sequestration on agricultural land could provide producers around the world with additional revenues of up to 375 billion USD2022 at 160 USD2022 tCO2e-1 and allow achievement of net-zero emissions in the agriculture, forestry and other land-use sectors by 2050 already at economic costs of around 80-120 USD2022 tCO2e-1. This would, in turn, decrease economy-wide mitigation costs and increase gross domestic product (+0.6%) by the mid-century in 1.5 °C no-overshoot climate stabilization scenarios compared with mitigation scenarios that do not consider these options. Unlocking these potentials requires the deployment of highly efficient institutions and monitoring systems over the next 5 years across the whole world, including sub-Saharan Africa, where the largest mitigation potential exists.

Deforestation-induced runoff changes dominated by forest-climate feedbacks

Large-scale deforestation alters water availability through its direct effect on runoff generation and indirect effect through forest-climate feedbacks. However, these direct and indirect effects and their spatial variations are difficult to separate and poorly understood. Here, we develop an attribution framework that combines the Budyko theory and deforestation experiments with climate models, showing that widespread runoff reductions caused by the indirect effect of forest-climate feedbacks can largely offset the direct effect of reduced forest cover on runoff increases. The indirect effect dominates the hydrological responses to deforestation over 63% of deforested areas worldwide. This indirect effect arises from deforestation-induced reductions in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which decrease and increase runoff, respectively, leading to complex patterns of runoff responses. Our findings underscore the importance of forest-climate feedbacks for improved understanding and prediction of climate and hydrological changes caused by deforestation, with profound implications for sustainable management of forests and water resources.

Land conflicts from overlapping claims in Brazil's rural environmental registry

Satellite-based land use monitoring and farm-level traceability offer opportunities for targeted zero-deforestation interventions on private lands. Brazil's Rural Environmental Registry (Cadastro Ambiental Rural, or "CAR"), a land cadaster based on self-declaration of property boundaries, was created to monitor compliance with national forest laws. It has become an important enabling measure for sustainable supply chain initiatives like the Amazon Soy Moratorium. However, CAR enrollment is increasingly used to bolster illegal land claims, putting it at the heart of land grabbing dynamics. Self-declaration of properties in the CAR offers a unique situation to study land conflicts and their impact on land use decisions on a large scale. We quantified competing land claims among 846,420 registrations in the Brazilian Legal Amazon and applied a series of generalized linear mixed-effects models. We determined that CAR overlaps are more prevalent on larger registrations, in more densely settled areas, and in areas with less secure land tenure. We tested how landholders respond to land conflicts, finding significantly more deforestation and declared legal forest reserve on lands with multiple claims. CAR overlap results in an overestimation of forest reserves by up to 9.7 million hectares when considering double-counted and deforested areas of reserves, highlighting an overlooked form of Forest Code noncompliance. While the CAR continues to be used as evidence of land tenure, we conclude that the formalization of land claims through self-declarations is inadequate to decrease conflicts. CAR overlap information provides objective evidence of land conflict that authorities can leverage with field inspection to ensure peaceful occupation before issuing land titles.

Biodiversity conservation, human-animal interactions, and zootherapy in ecological knowledge of Indonesian Healers

We examined the entanglement of biodiversity conservation, human-animal interactions, zootherapy, and local beliefs among Sumatran Healers and their local community by completing an ethnography of 43 Indigenous Healers across 8 tribes in Bengkulu Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Data collection tools were interviews, observations, videos, photographs, and a researcher journal. Of the 43 Healers, 30 used animals and mentioned 62 species. Of the animals identified, the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List lists 34% (n = 21) as endangered, decreasing, or vulnerable, including Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae), Sumatran elephant (Elephas maximus sumatranus), and Sumatran rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis). Of the 30 Healers using animals, 50% (n = 15) practiced healing with at least one endangered, decreasing, or vulnerable animal. We defined 3 personas: Healer self-persona, Healer-imposed persona, and community-imposed persona. A persona represented a group's opinions and sentiments related to Healers killing animals for medicinal purposes. Using an iterative data analysis process, we grouped the data across the 3 personas into 5 themes: ease of killing and preparing animals, emotions related to killing animals, animal value, relationship to religion, and Healers are tricksters. The complexity of merging the identities of Healers and the community within an actor-network embodies the relationality of actions, interactions, and feelings among Healers, between Healers and animals, and between Healers and the community. Conservationists should be cognizant of Healers' medicinal use of animals, views of human-animal interactions, and zootherapy from all social and emotional perspectives. The data led to defining Indigenous Healer ecological knowledge components of zootherapy, human-animal interactions, and biodiversity conservation.

Using historical habitat loss to predict contemporary mammal extirpations in Neotropical forests

Understanding which species will be extirpated in the aftermath of large-scale human disturbance is critical to mitigating biodiversity loss, particularly in hyperdiverse tropical biomes. Deforestation is the strongest driver of contemporary local extinctions in tropical forests but may occur at different tempos. The 2 most extensive tropical forest biomes in South America-the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon-have experienced historically divergent pathways of habitat loss and biodiversity decay, providing a unique case study to investigate rates of local species persistence on a single continent. We quantified medium- to large-bodied mammal species persistence across these biomes to elucidate how landscape configuration affects their persistence and associated ecological functions. We collected occurrence data for 617 assemblages of medium- to large-bodied mammal species (>1 kg) in the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon. Analyzing natural habitat cover based on satellite data (1985-2022), we employed descriptive statistics and generalized linear models (GLMs) to investigate ecospecies occurrence patterns in relation to habitat cover across the landscapes. The subregional erosion of Amazonian mammal assemblage diversity since the 1970s mirrors that observed since the colonial conquest of the Atlantic Forest, given that 52.8% of all Amazonian mammals are now on a similar trajectory. Four out of 5 large mammals in the Atlantic Forest were prone to extirpation, whereas 53% of Amazonian mammals were vulnerable to extirpation. Greater natural habitat cover increased the persistence likelihood of ecospecies in both biomes. These trends reflected a median local species loss 63.9% higher in the Atlantic Forest than in the Amazon, which appears to be moving toward a turning point of forest habitat loss and degradation. The contrasting trajectories of species persistence in the Amazon and Atlantic Forest domains underscore the importance of considering historical habitat loss pathways and regional biodiversity erosion in conservation strategies. By focusing on landscape configuration and identifying essential ecological functions associated with large vertebrate species, conservation planning and management practices can be better informed.

Land in limbo: Nearly one third of Indonesia's cleared old-growth forests left idle

Indonesia has experienced rapid primary forest loss, second only to Brazil in modern history. We examined the fates of Indonesian deforested areas, immediately after clearing and over time, to quantify deforestation drivers in Indonesia. Using time-series satellite data, we tracked degradation and clearing events in intact and degraded natural forests from 1991 to 2020, as well as land use trajectories after forest loss. While an estimated 7.8 Mha (SE = 0.4) of forest cleared during this period had been planted with oil palms by 2020, another 8.8 Mha (SE = 0.4) remained unused. Of the 28.4 Mha (SE = 0.7) deforested, over half were either initially left idle or experienced crop failure before a land use could be detected, and 44% remained unused for 5 y or more. A majority (54%) of these areas were cleared mechanically (not by escaped fires), and in cases where idle lands were eventually converted to productive uses, oil palm plantations were by far the most common outcome. The apparent deliberate creation of idle deforested land in Indonesia and subsequent conversion of idle areas to oil palm plantations indicates that speculation and land banking for palm oil substantially contribute to forest loss, although failed plantations could also contribute to this dynamic. We also found that in Sumatra, few lowland forests remained, suggesting that a lack of remaining forest appropriate for palm oil production, together with an extensive area of banked deforested land, may partially explain slowing forest loss in Indonesia in recent years.

Explaining the emergence of land-use frontiers

Land-use expansion is linked to major sustainability concerns including climate change, food security and biodiversity loss. This expansion is largely concentrated in so-called 'frontiers', defined here as places experiencing marked transformations owing to rapid resource exploitation. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these frontiers is crucial for sustainability. Previous work focused mainly on explaining how active frontiers advance, in particular, into tropical forests. Comparatively, our understanding of how frontiers emerge in territories considered marginal in terms of agricultural productivity and global market integration remains weak. We synthesize conceptual tools explaining resource and land-use frontiers, including theories of land rent and agglomeration economies, of frontiers as successive waves, spaces of territorialization, friction and opportunities, anticipation and expectation. We then propose a new theory of frontier emergence, which identifies exogenous pushes, legacies of past waves and actors' anticipations as key mechanisms by which frontiers emerge. Processes of differential rent creation and capture and the built-up of agglomeration economies then constitute key mechanisms sustaining active frontiers. Finally, we discuss five implications for the governance of frontiers for sustainability. Our theory focuses on agriculture and deforestation frontiers in the tropics but can be inspirational for other frontier processes including for extractive resources, such as minerals.

Human degradation of tropical moist forests is greater than previously estimated

Tropical forest degradation from selective logging, fire and edge effects is a major driver of carbon and biodiversity loss1-3, with annual rates comparable to those of deforestation4. However, its actual extent and long-term impacts remain uncertain at global tropical scale5. Here we quantify the magnitude and persistence of multiple types of degradation on forest structure by combining satellite remote sensing data on pantropical moist forest cover changes4 with estimates of canopy height and biomass from spaceborne6 light detection and ranging (LiDAR). We estimate that forest height decreases owing to selective logging and fire by 15% and 50%, respectively, with low rates of recovery even after 20 years. Agriculture and road expansion trigger a 20% to 30% reduction in canopy height and biomass at the forest edge, with persistent effects being measurable up to 1.5 km inside the forest. Edge effects encroach on 18% (approximately 206 Mha) of the remaining tropical moist forests, an area more than 200% larger than previously estimated7. Finally, degraded forests with more than 50% canopy loss are significantly more vulnerable to subsequent deforestation. Collectively, our findings call for greater efforts to prevent degradation and protect already degraded forests to meet the conservation pledges made at recent United Nations Climate Change and Biodiversity conferences.

Where the rubber meets the road: Emerging environmental impacts of tire wear particles and their chemical cocktails

About 3 billion new tires are produced each year and about 800 million tires become waste annually. Global dependence upon tires produced from natural rubber and petroleum-based compounds represents a persistent and complex environmental problem with only partial and often-times, ineffective solutions. Tire emissions may be in the form of whole tires, tire particles, and chemical compounds, each of which is transported through various atmospheric, terrestrial, and aquatic routes in the natural and built environments. Production and use of tires generates multiple heavy metals, plastics, PAH's, and other compounds that can be toxic alone or as chemical cocktails. Used tires require storage space, are energy intensive to recycle, and generally have few post-wear uses that are not also potential sources of pollutants (e.g., crumb rubber, pavements, burning). Tire particles emitted during use are a major component of microplastics in urban runoff and a source of unique and highly potent toxic substances. Thus, tires represent a ubiquitous and complex pollutant that requires a comprehensive examination to develop effective management and remediation. We approach the issue of tire pollution holistically by examining the life cycle of tires across production, emissions, recycling, and disposal. In this paper, we synthesize recent research and data about the environmental and human health risks associated with the production, use, and disposal of tires and discuss gaps in our knowledge about fate and transport, as well as the toxicology of tire particles and chemical leachates. We examine potential management and remediation approaches for addressing exposure risks across the life cycle of tires. We consider tires as pollutants across three levels: tires in their whole state, as particulates, and as a mixture of chemical cocktails. Finally, we discuss information gaps in our understanding of tires as a pollutant and outline key questions to improve our knowledge and ability to manage and remediate tire pollution.

Corporate zero deforestation commitments and company-internal organizational change

This paper addresses knowledge gaps related to implementation of corporate zero deforestation commitments (ZDCs). Drawing on an analytical framework of organizational change, we scrutinize changes and processes internal to a company in adjusting to zero deforestation supply chains. The empirical data consists of 48 online questionnaires and 49 online interviews with actors involved in forest-risk commodity supply chains, both internal actors in companies and external actors (e.g., non-governmental organizations). Concerning organizational changes, the findings show that diverse drivers have triggered companies to adopt ZDCs, but most are external drivers. Organizational change following ZDCs has taken place within companies but only to a limited extent. Our study concludes that while corporate ZDCs can be seen as having advanced private governance in the fight against deforestation, more is needed still for effective implementation. Public governance and regulations could play an increasing role in stimulating adoption and implementation of private governance initiatives, like corporate ZDCs.

Ghost roads and the destruction of Asia-Pacific tropical forests

Roads are expanding at the fastest pace in human history. This is the case especially in biodiversity-rich tropical nations, where roads can result in forest loss and fragmentation, wildfires, illicit land invasions and negative societal effects1-5. Many roads are being constructed illegally or informally and do not appear on any existing road map6-10; the toll of such 'ghost roads' on ecosystems is poorly understood. Here we use around 7,000 h of effort by trained volunteers to map ghost roads across the tropical Asia-Pacific region, sampling 1.42 million plots, each 1 km2 in area. Our intensive sampling revealed a total of 1.37 million km of roads in our plots-from 3.0 to 6.6 times more roads than were found in leading datasets of roads globally. Across our study area, road building almost always preceded local forest loss, and road density was by far the strongest correlate11 of deforestation out of 38 potential biophysical and socioeconomic covariates. The relationship between road density and forest loss was nonlinear, with deforestation peaking soon after roads penetrate a landscape and then declining as roads multiply and remaining accessible forests largely disappear. Notably, after controlling for lower road density inside protected areas, we found that protected areas had only modest additional effects on preventing forest loss, implying that their most vital conservation function is limiting roads and road-related environmental disruption. Collectively, our findings suggest that burgeoning, poorly studied ghost roads are among the gravest of all direct threats to tropical forests.

Impacts of commodity prices and governance on the expansion of tropical agricultural frontiers

Deforestation in the tropics remains a significant global challenge linked to carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Agriculture, forestry, wildfires, and urbanization have been repeatedly identified as main drivers of tropical deforestation. Understanding the underlying mechanisms behind these direct causes is crucial to navigate the multiple tradeoffs between competing forest uses, such as food and biomass production (SDG 2), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). This paper develops and implements a global-scale empirical approach to quantify two key factors affecting land use decisions at tropical forest frontiers: agricultural commodity prices and national governance. It relies on data covering the period 2004-2015 from multiple public sources, aggregated to countries and agro-ecological zones. Our analysis confirms the persistent influence of commodity prices on agricultural land expansion, especially in forest-abundant regions. Economic and environmental governance quality co-determines processes of expansion and contraction of agricultural land in the tropics, yet at much smaller magnitudes than other drivers. We derive land supply elasticities for direct use in standard economic impact assessment models and demonstrate that our results make a difference in a Computable General Equilibrium framework.

Driver-response relationships in a large shallow lake since the Anthropocene: Short-term abrupt perturbations versus long-term sustainable

Lakes, as integral social-ecological systems, are hotspots for exploring climatic and anthropogenic impacts, with crucial pathways revealed by continuous sediment records. However, the response of multi-proxies in large shallow lakes to typical abrupt events and sustained drivers since the Anthropocene remains unclear. Here, we explored the driver-identification relationships between multi-proxy peaks and natural and anthropogenic events as well as the attribution of short-term perturbations and long-term pressures. To this end, sediment core records, socio-ecological data, and documented events from official records were integrated into a large shallow lake (Dongting Lake, China). Significant causal cascades and path effects (goodness-of-fit: 0.488; total effect: -1.10; p < .001) were observed among catchment environmental proxies, lake biogenic proxies, and mixed-source proxies. The peak-event identification rate (PEIR) and event-peak driving rate were proposed, and values of 28.57%-46.43% and 50%-81.25% were obtained, respectively. The incomplete accuracy of depicting event perturbations using sediment proxies was caused by various information filters both inside and outside the lake. PEIRs for compound events were 1.41 (±0.72) and 1.09 (±0.46) times greater than those for anthropogenic-dominated and natural-dominated events, respectively. Furthermore, socio-economic activity, hydrologic dynamics, land-use changes, and agriculture exerted significant and persistent pressures, cumulatively contributing 55.3%-80.9% to alterations in sediment proxies. Relatively synergistic or antagonistic trends in temporal contributions of these forces were observed after 2000, which were primarily attributed to the "Grain for Green" project and the Three Gorges Dam. This study represents one of the few investigations to distinguish the driver-response relationship of multiple proxies in large shallow lakes under typical event perturbations and long-term sustained pressures since the Anthropocene. The findings will help policymakers and managers address ecological perturbations triggered by climate change and human activities over long-term periods.

Deforestation impacts soil biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide

Deforestation poses a global threat to biodiversity and its capacity to deliver ecosystem services. Yet, the impacts of deforestation on soil biodiversity and its associated ecosystem services remain virtually unknown. We generated a global dataset including 696 paired-site observations to investigate how native forest conversion to other land uses affects soil properties, biodiversity, and functions associated with the delivery of multiple ecosystem services. The conversion of native forests to plantations, grasslands, and croplands resulted in higher bacterial diversity and more homogeneous fungal communities dominated by pathogens and with a lower abundance of symbionts. Such conversions also resulted in significant reductions in carbon storage, nutrient cycling, and soil functional rates related to organic matter decomposition. Responses of the microbial community to deforestation, including bacterial and fungal diversity and fungal guilds, were predominantly regulated by changes in soil pH and total phosphorus. Moreover, we found that soil fungal diversity and functioning in warmer and wetter native forests is especially vulnerable to deforestation. Our work highlights that the loss of native forests to managed ecosystems poses a major global threat to the biodiversity and functioning of soils and their capacity to deliver ecosystem services.

Silvopastoral management for lowering trade-offs between beef production and carbon storage in tropical dry woodlands

Tropical dry woodlands and savannas harbour high levels of biodiversity and carbon, but are also important regions for agricultural production. This generates trade-offs between agriculture and the environment, as agricultural expansion and intensification typically involve the removal of natural woody vegetation. Cattle ranching is an expanding land use in many of these regions, but how different forms of ranching mediate the production/environment trade-off remains weakly understood. Here, we focus on the Argentine Chaco, to evaluate trade-offs between beef production and carbon storage in grazing systems with different levels of woody cover (n = 27). We measured beef productivity and carbon storage during 2018/19 and used a regression framework to quantify the trade-off between both, and to analyze which agroclimatic and management variables explain the observed trade-off. Our main finding was that silvopastures had the lowest trade-off between beef production and carbon storage, as management in these systems seeks to increase herbaceous forage by removing shrubs, while maintaining most of the bigger trees that contain most above-ground carbon. The most important variable explaining the beef production/carbon storage trade-off was pasture management, specifically the number of shrub encroachment control interventions, with a lower trade-off for higher numbers of interventions. Unfortunately, more interventions can also result in woody cover degradation over time, and shrub encroachment management must therefore be improved to become sustainable. Overall, our study highlights the strong environmental trade-offs associated with beef production in dry woodlands and savanna, but also the key role of good management practices in lowering this trade-off. Specifically, silvopastoral systems can increase beef production as much as converting woodlands to tree-less pastures, but silvopastures retain much more carbon in aboveground vegetation. Silvopastoral systems thus represent a promising land-use option to lower production/environment trade-offs in the Dry Chaco and likely many other tropical dry woodlands and savannas.

Anthropogenic disturbance driving population decline of a dominant tree in East Asia evergreen broadleaved forests over the last 11,000 years

Current biodiversity loss is generally considered to have been caused by anthropogenic disturbance, but it is unclear when anthropogenic activities began to affect biodiversity loss. One hypothesis suggests it began with the Industrial Revolution, whereas others propose that anthropogenic disturbance has been associated with biodiversity decline since the early Holocene. To test these hypotheses, we examined the unique vegetation of evergreen broadleaved forests (EBLFs) in East Asia, where humans have affected landscapes since the early Holocene. We adopted a genomic approach to infer the demographic history of a dominant tree (Litsea elongata) of EBLFs. We used Holocene temperature and anthropogenic disturbance factors to calculate the correlation between these variables and the historical effective population size of L. elongata with Spearman statistics and integrated the maximum-entropy niche model to determine the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on fluctuation in its effective population size. We identified 9 well-defined geographic clades for the populations of L. elongata. Based on the estimated historical population sizes of these clades, all the populations contracted, indicating persistent population decline over the last 11,000 years. Demographic history of L. elongata and human population change, change in cropland use, and change in irrigated rice area were significantly negatively correlated, whereas climate change in the Holocene was not correlated with demographic history. Our results support the early human impact hypothesis and provide comprehensive evidence that early anthropogenic disturbance may contribute to the current biodiversity crisis in East Asia.

Even low levels of tree cover improve dietary quality in West Africa

Forests are attracting attention as a promising avenue to provide nutritious and "free" food without damaging the environment. Yet, we lack knowledge on the extent to which this holds in areas with sparse tree cover, such as in West Africa. This is largely due to the fact that existing methods are poorly designed to quantify tree cover in drylands. In this study, we estimate how various levels of tree cover across West Africa affect children's (aged 12-59 months) consumption of vitamin A-rich foods. We do so by combining detailed tree cover estimates based on PlanetScope imagery (3 m resolution) with Demographic Health Survey data from >15,000 households. We find that the probability of consuming vitamin A-rich foods increases from 0.45 to 0.53 with an increase in tree cover from the median value of 8.8 to 16.8% (which is the tree cover level at which the predicted probability of consuming vitamin A-rich foods is the highest). Moreover, we observe that the effects of tree cover vary across poverty levels and ecoregions. The poor are more likely than the non-poor to consume vitamin A-rich foods at low levels of tree cover in the lowland forest-savanna ecoregions, whereas the difference between poor and non-poor is less pronounced in the Sahel-Sudan. These results highlight the importance of trees and forests in sustainable food system transformation, even in areas with sparse tree cover.

Mapping the diversity of land uses following deforestation across Africa

African forest are increasingly in decline as a result of land-use conversion due to human activities. However, a consistent and detailed characterization and mapping of land-use change that results in forest loss is not available at the spatial-temporal resolution and thematic levels suitable for decision-making at the local and regional scales; so far they have only been provided on coarser scales and restricted to humid forests. Here we present the first high-resolution (5 m) and continental-scale mapping of land use following deforestation in Africa, which covers an estimated 13.85% of the global forest area, including humid and dry forests. We use reference data for 15 different land-use types from 30 countries and implement an active learning framework to train a deep learning model for predicting land-use following deforestation with an F1-score of [Formula: see text] for the whole of Africa. Our results show that the causes of forest loss vary by region. In general, small-scale cropland is the dominant driver of forest loss in Africa, with hotspots in Madagascar and DRC. In addition, commodity crops such as cacao, oil palm, and rubber are the dominant drivers of forest loss in the humid forests of western and central Africa, forming an "arc of commodity crops" in that region. At the same time, the hotspots for cashew are found to increasingly dominate in the dry forests of both western and south-eastern Africa, while larger hotspots for large-scale croplands were found in Nigeria and Zambia. The increased expansion of cacao, cashew, oil palm, rubber, and large-scale croplands observed in humid and dry forests of western and south-eastern Africa suggests they are vulnerable to future land-use changes by commodity crops, thus creating challenges for achieving the zero deforestation supply chains, support REDD+ initiatives, and towards sustainable development goals.

Beyond the Farm to Fork Strategy: Methodology for designing a European agro-ecological future

The publication of the European Commission's Farm to Fork Strategy has sparked a heated debate between those who advocate the intensification of agriculture in the name of food security and those who recommend its de-intensification for environmental reasons. The design of quantified scenarios is a key approach to objectively evaluate the arguments of the two sides. To this end, we used the accounting methodology GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agri-Food Systems) to describe the agri-food system of Europe divided into 127 geographical units of similar agricultural area, in terms of nitrogen (N) fluxes across cropland, grassland, livestock, and human consumption. This analysis reveals, in current European agriculture, a high level of territorial specialization, a strong dependence on long distance trade, and environmental N losses amounting to about 14 TgN/yr, i.e. nearly 70 % of the annual N input (including N synthetic fertilizers, symbiotic N fixation, oxidized N deposition and import of food and feed). Based on the analysis of the yield-fertilization relationship of cropping systems at the scale of their full rotation cycle, and on a simplified model of livestock ingestion, excretion and production, we advanced the GRAFS methodology for prospective scenario design. Three scenarios for the European agri-food system were explored for 2050: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, a scenario based on the measures considered by the EU Farm to Fork Strategy (F2F), and a fully agro-ecological scenario (AE). The results show that the F2F scenario reduces the dependence of Europe on imports of synthetic fertilizers and feed resources by 40 % as well as the environmental N losses by 30 %, but not to the level of its claimed ambitions as N lost to the environment still amounts to about 10 TgN/yr, i.e. 67 % of N inputs. Of the three scenarios studied, only in the AE scenario, involving the relocation of feed production, the generalization of organic crop rotations with N fixing legume crops, and a shift of agricultural production and food consumption toward less animal-based products, would Europe be able to dispense with N imports, still being able to export some cereals, meat, and milk products to the rest of the world, while halving today's reactive N emissions to the environment.

Balancing Ambitions and Realities: Stakeholder Perspectives on Jurisdictional Approach Outcomes in Sabah's Forests

The jurisdictional approach concept emerged in response to the widespread failure of sectoral forest conservation projects. Despite its increasing popularity, understanding jurisdictional approach outcomes is challenging, given that many remain in either the formation or implementation stage. Furthermore, diverse stakeholders hold different perspectives on what exactly a jurisdictional approach is intended to pursue. These different perspectives are important to unravel, as having a shared understanding of the outcomes is important to build the critical support needed for it. This study aims to add to the limited evidence with a case study in Sabah, Malaysia, which is committed to addressing a leading deforestation driver (palm oil) through sustainability certification in a jurisdiction. We used Q-methodology to explore stakeholder perceptions, revealing three distinct perspectives regarding what outcomes jurisdictional approaches should pursue. We asked about outcomes achievable within ten years (2022-2032) and considering real-world constraints. We found different perspectives regarding economic, environmental, governance, and smallholders' welfare outcomes. However, we found consensus among stakeholders about some outcomes: (i) that achieving zero-deforestation is untenable, (ii) that issuing compensation or incentives to private land owners to not convert forests into plantations is unrealistic, (iii) that the human well-being of plantation workers could improve through better welfare, and (iv) the free, prior and informed consent given by local communities being required legally. The findings offer insights into key stakeholders' perceptions of the deliverables of jurisdictional approaches and the difficulty of achieving its objectives under real-world constraints.

Mixed success for carbon payments and subsidies in support of forest restoration in the neotropics

Restoration of forests in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has the potential to contribute to international carbon mitigation targets. However, high upfront costs and variable cashflows are obstacles for many landholders. Carbon payments have been promoted as a mechanism to incentivize restoration and economists have suggested cost-sharing by third parties to reduce financial burdens of restoration. Yet empirical evidence to support this theory, based on robust, dynamic field sampling is lacking. Here we use large, long-term datasets from Panama to evaluate the financial prospects of three forest restoration methods under different cost-sharing and carbon payment designs where income is generated through timber harvests. We show some, but not all options are economically viable. Further work combining growth and survival data from field trials with more sophisticated financial analyses is essential to understanding barriers and realizing the potential of forest restoration in LMICs to help meet global carbon mitigation commitments.

Financial influence on global risks of zoonotic emerging and re-emerging diseases: an integrative analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), such as Ebola virus disease and highly pathogenic influenza, are serious threats to human health and wellbeing worldwide. The financial sector has an important, yet often ignored, influence as owners and investors in industries that are associated with anthropogenic land-use changes in ecosystems linked to increased EIDs risks. We aimed to analyse financial influence associated with EIDs risks that are affected by anthropogenic land-use changes. We also aimed to provide empirical assessments of such influence to help guide engagements by governments, private organisations, and non-governmental organisations with the financial sector to advance a planetary health agenda.

METHODS

For this integrative analysis, we identified regions in the world where there was evidence of a connection between EIDs and anthropogenic land-use changes between Nov 9, 1999, and Oct 25, 2021, through a targeted literature review of academic literature and grey literature to identify evidence of drivers of anthropogenic land-use change and their association with commodity production in these regions. We only included publications in English that showed a connection between deforestation and the production of one or more commodities. Publications merely describing spatial or temporal land-use change dynamics (eg, a reduction of forest or an increase of palm-oil plantations) were excluded. As we were assessing financial influence on corporate activities through ownership specifically, we focused our analysis on publicly listed companies. Equity data and data about ownership structure were extracted from Orbis, a company information database. We assessed financial influence by identifying financial entities with the largest equity ownership, descriptively mapping transboundary connections between investors and publicly listed companies.

FINDINGS

227 public and private companies operating in five economic sectors (ie, production of palm oil, pulp and wood products, cocoa, soybeans, and beef) between Dec 15, 2020, and March 8, 2021, were identified. Of these 227, 99 (44%) were publicly listed companies, with 2310 unique shareholders. These publicly listed companies operated in six geographical regions, resulting in nine case-study regions. 54 (55%) companies with complete geographical information were included in the countries network. Four financial entities (ie, Dimensional, Vanguard, BlackRock, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund) each had ownership in 39 companies or more in three of the case-study regions (ie, north America, east Asia, and Europe). Four large US-based asset managers (ie, Vanguard, BlackRock, T Rowe Price, and State Street) were the largest owners of publicly listed companies in terms of total equity size, with ownership amounts for these four entities ranging from US$8 billion to $21 billion. The specific patterns of cross-national ownership depended on the region of interest; for example, financial influence on EIDs risks that was associated with commodity production in southeast and east Asia came from not only global asset managers but also Malaysian, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean financial entities. India, Brazil, the USA, Mexico, and Argentina were the countries towards which investments were most directed.

INTERPRETATION

Although commodity supply chains and financial markets are highly globalised, a small number of investors and countries could be viewed as disproportionally influential in sectors that increase EIDs risks. Such financial influence could be used to develop and implement effective policies to reduce ecological degradation and mitigate EIDs risks and their effects on population health.

FUNDING

Formas and Networks of Financial Rupture-how cascading changes in the climate and ecosystems could impact on the financial sector.

Sublethal consequences of ultraviolet radiation exposure on vertebrates: Synthesis through meta-analysis

Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) from the sun is a natural daytime stressor for vertebrates in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. UVR effects on the physiology of vertebrates manifest at the cellular level, but have bottom-up effects at the tissue level and on whole-animal performance and behaviours. Climate change and habitat loss (i.e. loss of shelter from UVR) could interact with and exacerbate the genotoxic and cytotoxic impacts of UVR on vertebrates. Therefore, it is important to understand the range and magnitude of effects that UVR can have on a diversity of physiological metrics, and how these may be shaped by taxa, life stage or geographical range in the major vertebrate groups. Using a meta-analytical approach, we used 895 observations from 47 different vertebrate species (fish, amphibian, reptile and bird), and 51 physiological metrics (i.e. cellular, tissue and whole-animal metrics), across 73 independent studies, to elucidate the general patterns of UVR effects on vertebrate physiology. We found that while UVR's impacts on vertebrates are generally negative, fish and amphibians were the most susceptible taxa, adult and larvae were the most susceptible life stages, and animals inhabiting temperate and tropical latitudes were the most susceptible to UVR stress. This information is critical to further our understanding of the adaptive capacity of vulnerable taxon to UVR stress, and the wide-spread sublethal physiological effects of UVR on vertebrates, such as DNA damage and cellular stress, which may translate up to impaired growth and locomotor performance. These impairments to individual fitness highlighted by our study may potentially cause disruptions at the ecosystem scale, especially if the effects of this pervasive diurnal stressor are exacerbated by climate change and reduced refuge due to habitat loss and degradation. Therefore, conservation of habitats that provide refuge to UVR stress will be critical to mitigate stress from this pervasive daytime stressor.

High-resolution maps show that rubber causes substantial deforestation

Understanding the effects of cash crop expansion on natural forest is of fundamental importance. However, for most crops there are no remotely sensed global maps1, and global deforestation impacts are estimated using models and extrapolations. Natural rubber is an example of a principal commodity for which deforestation impacts have been highly uncertain, with estimates differing more than fivefold1-4. Here we harnessed Earth observation satellite data and cloud computing5 to produce high-resolution maps of rubber (10 m pixel size) and associated deforestation (30 m pixel size) for Southeast Asia. Our maps indicate that rubber-related forest loss has been substantially underestimated in policy, by the public and in recent reports6-8. Our direct remotely sensed observations show that deforestation for rubber is at least twofold to threefold higher than suggested by figures now widely used for setting policy4. With more than 4 million hectares of forest loss for rubber since 1993 (at least 2 million hectares since 2000) and more than 1 million hectares of rubber plantations established in Key Biodiversity Areas, the effects of rubber on biodiversity and ecosystem services in Southeast Asia could be extensive. Thus, rubber deserves more attention in domestic policy, within trade agreements and in incoming due-diligence legislation.

Tropical dry woodland loss occurs disproportionately in areas of highest conservation value

Tropical and subtropical dry woodlands are rich in biodiversity and carbon. Yet, many of these woodlands are under high deforestation pressure and remain weakly protected. Here, we assessed how deforestation dynamics relate to areas of woodland protection and to conservation priorities across the world's tropical dry woodlands. Specifically, we characterized different types of deforestation frontier from 2000 to 2020 and compared them to protected areas (PAs), Indigenous Peoples' lands and conservation areas for biodiversity, carbon and water. We found that global conservation priorities were always overrepresented in tropical dry woodlands compared to the rest of the globe (between 4% and 96% more than expected, depending on the type of conservation priority). Moreover, about 41% of all dry woodlands were characterized as deforestation frontiers, and these frontiers have been falling disproportionately in areas with important regional (i.e. tropical dry woodland) conservation assets. While deforestation frontiers were identified within all tropical dry woodland classes of woodland protection, they were lower than the average within protected areas coinciding with Indigenous Peoples' lands (23%), and within other PAs (28%). However, within PAs, deforestation frontiers have also been disproportionately affecting regional conservation assets. Many emerging deforestation frontiers were identified outside but close to PAs, highlighting a growing threat that the conserved areas of dry woodland will become isolated. Understanding how deforestation frontiers coincide with major types of current woodland protection can help target context-specific conservation policies and interventions to tropical dry woodland conservation assets (e.g. PAs in which deforestation is rampant require stronger enforcement, inactive deforestation frontiers could benefit from restoration). Our analyses also identify recurring patterns that can be used to test the transferability of governance approaches and promote learning across social-ecological contexts.

Forest carbon offsets are failing

Analysis reveals emission reductions from forest conservation have been overestimated.

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear understanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5,6,7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8,9,10,11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world's most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepresented in biodiversity databases.13,14,15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may eliminate pieces of the Amazon's biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological communities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple organism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region's vulnerability to environmental change. 15%-18% of the most neglected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lost.

Complex relationships between soybean trade destination and tropical deforestation

Over the last few years, understanding of the effects of increasingly interconnected global flows of agricultural commodities on coupled human and natural systems has significantly improved. However, many important factors in environmental change that are influenced by these commodity flows are still not well understood. Here, we present an empirical spatial modelling approach to assess how changes in forest cover are influenced by trade destination. Using data for soybean-producing municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, between 2004 and 2017, we evaluated the relationships between forest cover change and the annual soybean trade destination. Results show that although most of the soybean produced in Mato Grosso during the study period (60%) was destined for international markets, municipalities with greater and more consistent soybean production not destined for international markets during the study period were more strongly associated with deforestation. In these municipalities, soybean production was also significantly correlated with cattle and pasture expansion. These results have important implications for the sustainable management of natural resources in the face of an increasingly interconnected world, while also helping to identify the most suitable locations for implementing policies to reduce deforestation risks.

Broadening the focus of forest conservation beyond carbon

Two concurrent trends are contributing towards a much broader view of forest conservation. First, the appreciation of the role of forests as a nature-based climate solution has grown rapidly, particularly among governments and the private sector. Second, the spatiotemporal resolution of forest mapping and the ease of tracking forest changes have dramatically improved. As a result, who does and who pays for forest conservation is changing: sectors and people previously considered separate from forest conservation now play an important role and need to be held accountable and motivated or forced to conserve forests. This change requires, and has stimulated, a broader range of forest conservation solutions. The need to assess the outcomes of conservation interventions has motivated the development and application of sophisticated econometric analyses, enabled by high resolution satellite data. At the same time, the focus on climate, together with the nature of available data and evaluation methods, has worked against a more comprehensive view of forest conservation. Instead, it has encouraged a focus on trees as carbon stores, often leaving out other important goals of forest conservation, such as biodiversity and human wellbeing. Even though both are intrinsically connected to climate outcomes, these areas have not kept pace with the scale and diversification of forest conservation. Finding synergies between these 'co-benefits', which play out on a local scale, with the carbon objective, related to the global amount of forests, is a major challenge and area for future advances in forest conservation.

Eudaimonia in the Amazon: Relational Values as a Deep Leverage Point to Curb Tropical Deforestation

Tropical deforestation has been recognized as a major and multi-faceted sustainability issue, frequently analyzed in terms of its economic drivers, the effectiveness of protection policies, or broader political dynamics. Meanwhile, the role of values as underlying social factors affecting land-use choices remains underexplored. Recognizing that values can, however, be important “deep” leverage points for transformative change, we delve into that dimension using the Brazilian Amazon as a case study. Through a total of 72 key-informant interviews and field visits to 25 sustainable land-use initiatives in the states of Acre and Mato Grosso, we identify values that have motivated choices for conservation in deforestation frontiers and how stakeholders articulate them. Our results reveal that different land users make economic considerations, but these are interwoven with relational values—about connections to the landscape or social relations mediated by nature. Eudaimonic values, such as increased meaningfulness, personal growth through learning and knowledge sharing, as well as a sense of contributing to the world, are shown to be key in those initiatives. These findings challenge the commonplace distinction between ‘traditional’ and ‘modern’ people, showing that relational values are relevant across the board and may deserve much more attention as leverage points.

Livelihood Capitals and Opportunity Cost for Grazing Areas' Restoration: A Sustainable Intensification Strategy in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Land use change in pastures is considered one of the leading drivers of tropical deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region (EAR). To halt and reverse this process, it is necessary to understand, among other factors, the local livelihoods, income from grazing area and the appropriate options to foster sustainable production, incorporating the land-sparing and land-sharing approach. This work was conducted using 167 household surveys along an altitudinal gradient within the buffer and transition zone of the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve (SBR) in the EAR. The results of a comparative analysis of the main capital variables (human, social, natural, financial, and physical), and the opportunity cost of grazing area assessment provides the following key findings: (a) the concepts of land sparing and land sharing should be considered as complementary local strategies, including household livelihoods and the opportunity cost of the grazing area; (b) we should encourage markets with differentiated restoration rights, based on households engaged in low grazing areas' opportunity costs, and making less impact on capitals' livelihood a key element of economic and conservation initiatives; and (c) sectoral policy implications, including moderate intensification and technological improvements to strengthen the pastureland-sparing and -sharing approach, are discussed.

Agricultural commercialization in borderlands: Capturing the transformation of a tropical forest frontier through participatory mapping

Forest-frontier landscapes in the humid tropics display distinct land use change dynamics compared to other world regions, providing useful examples of current global environmental and development challenges. In northwestern Laos, part of the former Golden Triangle region, investments in value chains for commercial crops—mainly to fulfill Chinese market demands—have triggered various land use changes and put increasing pressure on remaining biodiverse forest areas. Capturing the existing land use change trajectories is a key initial step toward further studies assessing land use change impacts. However, methodological challenges arise when conducting spatially-explicit change assessments in these regions, given the high temporal variability of land use at the plot level, compounded by the paucity of good quality satellite imagery. Thus, we applied a novel approach combining analysis of very high-resolution (VHR) satellite imagery with participatory mapping. This enabled joint collection of annual land use information for the last 17 years together with local land users, shedding light on temporally dense land system dynamics. For decades, the government of Laos has sought to halt shifting cultivation, labeling it environmentally degrading, and to reduce poverty through promotion of permanent commodity-oriented commercial agriculture. Among other things, this gave rise to a boom in banana and rubber investments in Luang Namtha province in order to satisfy growing Chinese demand for these commodities. The present paper investigates the impact of these cash crop booms on land use transitions and whether they reduced pressure on forest-frontier areas, as ostensibly desired by government authorities. Our study is among the first to demonstrate in a spatially-explicit manner that subsistence agriculture—in less than two decades—has virtually disappeared in northern Laos due to diverse cash-crop production and agricultural commercialization initiatives linked to Chinese investments. As subsistence-focused cultivation systems are being replaced by land uses solely aimed at commercial production for export, a telecoupled land system is being developed in northwestern Laos with potentially manifold impacts for sustainable development.

Explaining the stickiness of supply chain relations in the Brazilian soybean trade

The global trade of agricultural commodities has profound social-ecological impacts, from potentially increasing food availability and agricultural efficiency, to displacing local communities, and to incentivizing environmental destruction. Supply chain stickiness, understood as the stability in trading relationships between supply chain actors, moderates the impacts of agricultural commodity production and the possibilities for supply-chain interventions. However, what factors determine stickiness, that is, how and why farmers, traders, food processors, and consumer countries, develop and maintain trading relationships with specific producing regions, remains unclear. Here, we use data on the Brazilian soy supply chain, a mixed methods approach based on extensive actor-based fieldwork, and an explanatory regression model, to identify and explore the factors that influence stickiness between places of production and supply chain actors. We find four groups of factors to be important: economic incentives, institutional enablers and constraints, social and power dimensions, and biophysical and technological conditions. Among the factors we explore, surplus capacity in soy processing infrastructure, (i.e., crushing and storage facilities) is important in increasing stickiness, as is export-oriented production. Conversely, volatility in market demand expressed by farm-gate soy prices and lower land-tenure security are key factors reducing stickiness. Importantly, we uncover heterogeneity and context-specificity in the factors determining stickiness, suggesting tailored supply-chain interventions are beneficial. Understanding supply chain stickiness does not, in itself, provide silver-bullet solutions to stopping deforestation, but it is a crucial prerequisite to understanding the relationships between supply chain actors and producing regions, identifying entry points for supply chain sustainability interventions, assessing the effectiveness of such interventions, forecasting the restructuring of trade flows, and considering sourcing patterns of supply chain actors in territorial planning.