Preventing type 2 diabetes: systematic review of studies of cost-effectiveness of lifestyle programmes and metformin, with and without screening, for pre-diabetes

Cost-effectiveness of prevention program for type 2 diabetes mellitus in high risk patients in the Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Republic of Srpska (RS), as a part of the Western Balkans (WB) region, has a higher diabetes prevalence than the EU. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of early treatment of high-risk patients with pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in our setting. We designed a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model which reflects the current International Diabetes Federation (IDF) three-step plan for the prevention of T2DM in those at increased risk. The model captures the evolution of the disease in FINDRISC high-risk patients from normal glucose tolerance (NGT) to impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and then to T2DM and its complications. We developed two MCMC models, in order to follow the progression of the disease in high-risk cases, ie, when early treatment is undertaken or when it is not undertaken. The health costs and quality adjusted life years (QALY) were discounted at an annual rate of 3%. The key model parameters were varied in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Early treatment resulted in increased life expectancy, postponement of the onset of diabetes and increased QALY for all patients. The discounted incremental cost-effectiveness-ratios (ICER) in NGT, IFG, IGT, and T2DM patients were -289.9, 9724.03, -1478.59 and 4084.67 €. In high-risk IGT patients, ICER was the most favorable, being both a cost saving and QALY gaining, with the consistent results confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. The results recommend the acceptance of a new health policy of identifying IGT patients with the use of FINDRISC questionnaire and plasma glucose measurements; providing them with a lifestyle change program; and implementing intensive diabetes treatment, as their disease progresses. Our results are especially significant for the Western Balkan countries, since this was the first cost-effectiveness study of T2DM prevention in this region.

Policy models for preventative interventions in cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs), including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), are major contributors to morbidity, mortality, and rising healthcare costs. Effective disease prevention programs rely on robust mathematical models to generate long-term evidence regarding the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and policy implications of interventions in the population. Population-level interventions, such as dietary policies, are recognised as essential prevention strategies, yet there is limited syntheis of policy models assessing their impact. This study systematically reviews existing CMD policy models to provide: (i) a comprehensive overview of current models, and (ii) a critical appraisal of their application, particularly in the context of primordial prevention programmes.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL, Google Scholar, and Open Grey. The search focused on publications from 1st January 2000, to 31st May 2024, using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) for "cardiovascular," "diabetes," "decision model," and "policy model." Full-text articles were independently appraised independently by three reviewers using the Phillips et al. checklist, and the review process adhered to PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Thirty-two articles met the inclusion criteria and were critically appraised. Policy models were assessed across three domains: structure, data, and consistency. Most models (79%) demonstrated well-defined structures, aligning inputs and objectives with the stated perspective and initial justifications. However, fewer than 60% of studies clearly reported the quality of their data sources and provided clear information in terms of consistency. The reviewed studies employed diverse methodologies, including parameter incorporation, simulation modelling, and outcome analysis.

CONCLUSION

The review highlights substantial heterogeneity in the quality, structure, and data use of policy models evaluating dietary interventions for CMD prevention. To advance CMD policy modeling, this study provides recommendations for improving conceptualisation, methodological rigor, and applicability to prevention programmes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered protocol at PROSPERO: CRD42022354399.

Impact of time-restricted feeding on glycemic indices, vascular oxidative stress, and inflammation in an obese prediabetes rat model induced by a high-fat diet and sugar drink

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the effects of time-restricted feeding (TRF) on glycaemic indices and aortic tissue oxidative stress and inflammation in an obese prediabetes rat model.

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

Male Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into two normal and four obese groups. Obese prediabetes was induced by feeding a high-fat diet and sucrose water (HFSD) for 10 weeks; normal rats were given a standard diet and plain water. For the next 6 weeks, rats were grouped into the normal group (NR), which continued on the standard diet; the normal group was switched to TRF with the standard diet (NR + TRFSD); the prediabetes group (OR) was continued on HFSD; the prediabetes group was switched to TRF of HFSD (OR + TRFHFSD); the prediabetes group was switched to TRF of the standard diet (OR + TRFSD); and the prediabetes group was switched to the standard diet (OR + SD). Rats were then sacrificed, and aortic tissues were isolated and quantified for oxidative stress markers malondialdehyde, antioxidant enzyme superoxide dismutase, and inflammation markers tumor necrosis factor-α, and interleukin 1. Fasting blood glucose (FBG), body weight, Lee's index, serum insulin level, and resistance (Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance) were also measured.

RESULTS

Mean FBG and body weight in obese groups were higher compared to the normal groups after 10 weeks of HFDSD. Both obese-prediabetes groups that underwent TRF had reduced levels of tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin 1, body weight, Lee's index, FBG, and insulin resistance. Furthermore, obese prediabetes on TRF with SD also reduced levels of lipid peroxidation (malondialdehyde), insulin levels and increased levels of the antioxidant enzyme (superoxide dismutase).

CONCLUSION

TRF reduced weight, improved glycaemic indices, vascular oxidative stress, and inflammation in obese-prediabetic rats.

Development and validation of a machine learning model for prediction of type 2 diabetes in patients with mental illness

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is approximately twice as common among individuals with mental illness compared with the background population, but may be prevented by early intervention on lifestyle, diet, or pharmacologically. Such prevention relies on identification of those at elevated risk (prediction). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning model for prediction of T2D among patients with mental illness.

METHODS

The study was based on routine clinical data from electronic health records from the psychiatric services of the Central Denmark Region. A total of 74,880 patients with 1.59 million psychiatric service contacts were included in the analyses. We created 1343 potential predictors from 51 source variables, covering patient-level information on demographics, diagnoses, pharmacological treatment, and laboratory results. T2D was operationalised as HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol, fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/mol, oral glucose tolerance test ≥11.1 mmol/mol or random plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol/mol. Two machine learning models (XGBoost and regularised logistic regression) were trained to predict T2D based on 85% of the included contacts. The predictive performance of the best performing model was tested on the remaining 15% of the contacts.

RESULTS

The XGBoost model detected patients at high risk 2.7 years before T2D, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Of the 996 patients developing T2D in the test set, the model issued at least one positive prediction for 305 (31%).

CONCLUSION

A machine learning model can accurately predict development of T2D among patients with mental illness based on routine clinical data from electronic health records. A decision support system based on such a model may inform measures to prevent development of T2D in this high-risk population.

Evidence on the effectiveness and equity of population-based policies to reduce the burden of type 2 diabetes: a narrative review

There is increasing evidence for the effectiveness of population-based policies to reduce the burden of type 2 diabetes. Yet, there are concerns about the equity effects of some policies, whereby socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are not reached or are adversely affected. There is a lack of knowledge on the effectiveness and equity of policies that are both population based (i.e. targeting both at-risk and low-risk populations) and low agency (i.e. not requiring personal resources to benefit from the policy). In this narrative review, we selected 16 policies that were both population based and low agency and reviewed the evidence on their effectiveness and equity. Substantial evidence suggests that fruit and vegetable subsidies, unhealthy food taxes, mass media campaigns, and school nutrition and physical activity education are effective in promoting healthier lifestyle behaviours. Less evidence was available for mandatory food reformulation, reduced portion sizes, marketing restrictions and restriction of availability and promotion of unhealthy products, although the available evidence suggested that these policies were effective in reducing unhealthy food choices. Effects could rarely be quantified across different studies due to substantial heterogeneity. There is an overall lack of evidence on equity effects of population-based policies, although available studies mostly concluded that the policies had favourable equity effects, with the exception of food-labelling policies. Each of the policies is likely to have a relatively modest effect on population-level diabetes risks, which emphasises the importance of combining different policy measures. Future research should consider the type of evidence needed to demonstrate the real-world effectiveness and equity of population-based diabetes prevention policies.

FINDRISC modified for Cuba as a tool for the detection of prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in cuban population

BACKGROUND

Motivation for the study. There is an increase in obesity and diabetes mellitus cases in Cuba, so it is necessary to provide easy to use, fast and inexpensive tools for the identification of people with dysglycemia. Main findings. For the first time in CUBA, the optimal cut-off point for FINDRISC, LA-FINDRISC and modified FINDRISC for Cuba (CUBDRISC) questionnaires was established with its own anthropometric parameters to identify people with dysglycemia. Implications. The use of the CUBDRISC scale as a simple, fast and low-cost tool for the active screening of people with dysglycemia in Cuban population will be useful to establish timely intervention strategies for people with risk score to develop dysglycemia.

OBJECTIVES.

To evaluate the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) modified for Cuba as a tool for the detection of prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in Cuban population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS.

An analytical cross-sectional and secondary source epidemiological study was conducted in 3737 adults aged 19 years and older with at least one risk factor for diabetes, they did not have previous diagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes mellitus and underwent oral glucose tolerance test for the diagnosis of dysglycemia. We applied the FINDRISC and the FINDRISC modified for Latin America (LA-FINDRISC) and Cuba (CUBDRISC), each with their own anthropometric parameters. The ROC curve was used to establish the cut-off point of each scale for the diagnosis of dysglycemia. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios were calculated. The concordance between scales was calculated with Cohen's Kappa coefficient.

RESULTS.

We found that 34.5% (n=1289) of the subjects were diagnosed with dysglycemia (28.1% had prediabetes and 6.4% had type 2 diabetes without previous diagnosis). The LA-FINDRISC and CUBDRISC scales showed an almost perfect concordance with the FINDRISC scale for the different cut-off values from 11 to 16 (0.882-0.890 and 0.910-0.922, respectively). The optimal cutoff point for detecting persons with dysglycemia was ≥ 13 for the FINDRISC and CUBDRISC scales (sensitivity was 63.6% and 61.6%; specificity was 84.3% and 86.0%, respectively) and ≥11 for LA-FINDRISC (sensitivity 58.0% and specificity 88.0%).

CONCLUSIONS.

We found almost perfect concordance between the diabetes risk scales. The FINDRISC score modified for Cuba proved to be a useful tool to identify persons with prediabetes and diabetes with a cut-off point of 13 in a Cuban population.

Economic Evaluation of Fasting Mimicking Diet Versus Standard Care in Diabetic Patients on Dual or Triple Medications at Baseline in the United States: A Cost-Utility Analysis

OBJECTIVES

According to most guidelines, dietary interventions are essential in the management of diabetes. Fasting has emerged as potential therapeutic regimes for diabetes. The proof-of-concept study and the fasting in diabetes treatment trial are the first to explore the clinical impact of the Fasting Mimicking Diet (FMD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Their results showed that FMD cycles improve glycemic management and can be integrated into usual care complementary to current guidelines. This economic evaluation aims to assess the 10-year quality-of-life effects, cost implications, and cost-effectiveness of adding a 3-year FMD program to diabetes standard care in diabetic population on dual or triple medications at baseline from the perspective of the US payer.

METHODS

We constructed a microsimulation model in TreeAge using a published US-specific diabetes model. The model was populated using FMD effectiveness outcomes and publicly available clinical and economic data associated with diabetes complications, use of diabetes medications, hypoglycemia incidence, direct medical costs in 2021 USD, quality of life, and mortality. All benefits were discounted by 3%.

RESULTS

This cost-utility analysis showed that the FMD program was associated with 11.4% less diabetes complications, 67.2% less overall diabetes medication use, and 45.0% less hypoglycemia events over the 10-year simulation period. The program generated an additional effectiveness benefit of 0.211 quality-adjusted life year and net monetary benefit of 41 613 USD per simulated patient. Thus, the FMD program is cost saving.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that the FMD program is a beneficial first-line strategy in T2DM management.

Effects of lifestyle interventions on the prevention of type 2 diabetes and reversion to normoglycemia by prediabetes phenotype: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

To explore the effects of lifestyle interventions on the prevention of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and reversion to normoglycemia by prediabetes phenotype.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated the effects of lifestyle interventions in adults with prediabetes for a minimum duration of one year. Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data, and performed quality assessment. The relative effects were analyzed using a random-effects model, subgroup analysis was employed to explore the potential effects among subpopulations.

RESULTS

A total of 31 RCTs involving 23684 participants were analyzed. Compared with usual care, lifestyle interventions reduced the incident T2D by 41 % (RR 0.59 [95 % CI 0.52-0.68]) and increased the probability of reverting to normoglycemia by 44 % (RR 1.44 [95 % CI 1.15-1.81]) in adults with prediabetes. No significant difference was observed between the impaired fasting glucose (IFG5.6)/impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and IFG6.1/IGT (P = 0.752). IGT + IFG benefited more than isolated IGT in prevention of T2D (RRIGT + IFG 0.47 [95 % CI 0.41-0.55]; RRisolatedIGT 0.77 [95 % CI 0.64-0.93]), whereas no benefit was found in isolated IFG (RR 0.77 [95 % CI 0.51-1.16]) or elevated HbA1c (RR 0.89 [95 % CI 0.74-1.07]).

CONCLUSIONS

Lifestyle intervention could help prevent T2D and revert to normoglycemia in adults with prediabetes, with significant benefit in people with IGT but not in those with isolated IFG or elevated HbA1c.

Modern-Day Management of the Dysglycemic Continuum: An Expert Viewpoint from the Arabian Gulf

Prediabetes is the first stage of a continuum that extends through the diagnosis of clinical type 2 diabetes towards long-standing diabetes with multiple comorbidities. The diagnosis of prediabetes provides an opportunity to interrupt the diabetes continuum at an early stage to ensure long-term optimization of clinical outcomes. All people with prediabetes should receive intervention to improve their lifestyles (quality of diet and level of physical activity), as this has been proven beyond doubt to reduce substantially the risk of conversion to diabetes. Additionally, a large base of clinical evidence supports the use of metformin in preventing or delaying the transition from prediabetes to clinical type 2 diabetes, for some people with prediabetes. For many years, guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes focused on lowering blood glucose, with metformin prescribed first for those without contraindications. More recently, guidelines have shifted towards prevention of diabetes complications as the primary goal, with increased use of GLP-1 receptor agonists (or multi-agonist incretin peptides) or SGLT-2 inhibitors for patients with existing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure or chronic kidney disease. Access to these medications often remains challenging. Metformin remains a suitable option for initial pharmacologic intervention to manage glycemia for many people with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes along with other therapy to maintain control of blood glucose or to address specific comorbidities as the patient progresses along the diabetes continuum.

Contribution of body mass index, waist circumference, and 25-OH-D3 on the risk of pre-diabetes mellitus in the Chinese population

This study aimed to investigate the associations between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), 25-hydroxy-vitamin D3 (25-OH-D3), and the risk of pre-diabetes mellitus (PDM), as well as their predictive values in identifying PDM. A total of 1688 participants were included in this cross-sectional investigation. Spearman's correlation analysis was used to assess the relationships between candidate indicators and PDM. The impact of indicators on PDM risk was determined by multivariate logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of indicators. Our study indicated a positive correlation between WC, BMI, and 25-OH-D3 and PDM. WC (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.04-1.06, p < 0.001), BMI (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.15, p < 0.001), and 25-OH-D3 (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.02, p = 0.037) and an increased risk of PDM. Additionally, the ROC analysis demonstrated that WC (AUC = 0.651, Specificity = 55.00%, Sensitivity = 67.900%) had a higher diagnostic value for predicting PDM compared to the other variables (BMI, 25-OH-D3, TG, TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, and UA). A cut-off value of WC > 80.5 cm predicted PDM with both good sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, the cut-off value of waist circumference (WC) for men with prediabetes was 86.500, while for women with prediabetes, it was 76.500.

Lifestyle interventions for cardiometabolic health

Unhealthy lifestyle behaviors such as poor diets and physical inactivity account for most of the cardiometabolic disease (CMD) burden, including type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Much of this burden is mediated by the effects of unhealthy lifestyle behaviors on overweight and obesity, and disproportionally impacts certain population groups-including those from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds. Combined lifestyle interventions (CLIs), which target multiple behaviors, have the potential to prevent CMD, but their implementation, reach and effectiveness in routine practice are often limited. Considering the increasing availability of effective but expensive pharmaceutical options for weight loss, we review the short-term and long-term benefits and cost-effectiveness of CLIs on overweight, obesity and associated CMDs, in controlled studies and in routine care. Against the backdrop of changing living environments, we discuss the effective components of CLIs and the many challenges associated with implementing them. Finally, we outline future directions for research and implications for policy and practice to improve lifestyle behaviors and cardiometabolic health at the population level.

Nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabolomics with machine learning for predicting progression from prediabetes to diabetes

Background

Identification of individuals with prediabetes who are at high risk of developing diabetes allows for precise interventions. We aimed to determine the role of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based metabolomic signature in predicting the progression from prediabetes to diabetes.

Methods

This prospective study included 13,489 participants with prediabetes who had metabolomic data from the UK Biobank. Circulating metabolites were quantified via NMR spectroscopy. Cox proportional hazard (CPH) models were performed to estimate the associations between metabolites and diabetes risk. Supporting vector machine, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting were used to select the optimal metabolite panel for prediction. CPH and random survival forest (RSF) models were utilized to validate the predictive ability of the metabolites.

Results

During a median follow-up of 13.6 years, 2525 participants developed diabetes. After adjusting for covariates, 94 of 168 metabolites were associated with risk of progression to diabetes. A panel of nine metabolites, selected by all three machine-learning algorithms, was found to significantly improve diabetes risk prediction beyond conventional risk factors in the CPH model (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 1 year: 0.823 for risk factors + metabolites vs 0.759 for risk factors, 5 years: 0.830 vs 0.798, 10 years: 0.801 vs 0.776, all p < 0.05). Similar results were observed from the RSF model. Categorization of participants according to the predicted value thresholds revealed distinct cumulative risk of diabetes.

Conclusions

Our study lends support for use of the metabolite markers to help determine individuals with prediabetes who are at high risk of progressing to diabetes and inform targeted and efficient interventions.

Funding

Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (2022XD017). Innovative Research Team of High-level Local Universities in Shanghai (SHSMU-ZDCX20212501). Shanghai Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau (2020074). Clinical Research Plan of Shanghai Hospital Development Center (SHDC2020CR4006). Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (22015810500).

Interprofessional follow-up for people at risk of type 2 diabetes in primary healthcare - a randomized controlled trial with embedded qualitative interviews

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of an empowerment-based interprofessional lifestyle intervention program among people at risk of type 2 diabetes on knowledge, skills, and confidence in self-management, health, psychological well-being, and lifestyle characteristics, and to explore the participants' perceptions of participating in the intervention.

DESIGN AND METHODS

In line with the Medical Research Council complex interventions research methods framework, we conducted a randomized controlled trial with embedded qualitative interviews in primary healthcare clinics in Norway between 2019-2021. Of the patients at risk (The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score Calculator (FINDRISC) ≥15 or Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥30) 142 accepted the invitation, and 14 participants from the intervention group participated in individual interviews after the 12-month follow-up. Our primary outcome was the Patient Activation Measure (PAM-13). Secondary outcomes were EQ-5D-5L, EQ-VAS, WHO-Overall health, WHO-Overall QOL, weight, height, waist circumference, and regularity of physical activity. We used thematic analysis to analyse the qualitative data.

RESULTS

There was no clinically relevant differences of neither the primary nor the secondary endpoints between intervention and control group. As to the qualitative data, we identified two distinct features: 'Meaningful perspectives on lifestyle changes' and 'Lifestyle change is not a linear process due to challenges faced along the way' putting ownership of their choices in life into picture.

CONCLUSION

The negative results of the RCT stand in contrast to the findings given by the participants voices, perceiving the intervention as a key eye opener placing their health challenges in perspective. How to interpret these seemingly conflicting findings of participants being seen, heard, and understood, helping them to take more conscious ownership of their choices in life, and at the same time demonstrating no improvements in symptoms or measures, is a dilemma that needs further exploration. We should be careful to implement interventions that do not demonstrate any effects on the quantitative outcomes.

A Comparison of Emergency Room Visits and Hospital Admissions Between People with Prediabetes and Diabetes

The purpose of this study was to characterize risk factors and groups at risk among people with diabetes and prediabetes for increased hospital utilization. Electronic health records for all people who visited the emergency department (ED) and had type II diabetes mellitus (PWD) or prediabetes (PWPD) were collected. ED use, hospital admissions, demographics, and clinical characteristics were compared between the groups. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the odds of ED high utilization (HU) (3+ visits per year) and hospital admissions between PWD and PWPD with interactions for socioeconomic status, race, marital status, and total comorbidities. PWD had higher mean ED visits per year compared with PWPD (1.5 vs. 1.2) and were more likely to be admitted (57.3% vs. 34.9%). PWD had higher odds of ED HU (2.1 [1.6, 2.7]) and hospital admissions (1.9 [1.6, 2.1]). Among PWD, Black, not married, and those with more than one comorbidity had the highest odds of ED HU. Among PWPD, those of low SES, Black, and divorced had the higher odds of ED HU. Hospital admissions were a risk for PWD and PWPD with increasing comorbidities. Early recognition and identification of prediabetes and clear criteria for diagnosis could reduce ED visits and hospital admissions.

Prevalence and Associated Factors of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Among Chinese Hakka Individuals Aged 35-65 Years: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

The prevalence of diabetes in China is increasing, influenced by economic and genetic factors, with varying rates across regions. The Hakka population in Ganzhou city has unique exposures compared to surrounding districts, while limited research reported the epidemiological characteristics of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in this population. This study aims to investigate the prevalence and influencing factors of T2DM among the population, thereby establishing a robust foundation for disease prevention and control measures.

Patients and Methods

In 2017, a multistage random sampling method selected 3028 individuals from Ganzhou City's permanent resident population. Physical examinations, blood tests, and questionnaire surveys were conducted for data collection, with binary logistic regression analysis used to examine factors affecting T2DM prevalence.

Results

A total of 2978 valid samples were included in this study. The average age of the surveyed population was 52.83±7.88 years, comprising 966 males and 2012 females. The prevalence rates of T2DM were 11.8% and 12.9% in males and females, respectively, while the standardized prevalence rate was recorded as 9.1%. Logistic regression analysis revealed that age (Odds Ratio[OR]=1.05, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]:1.03-1.06), hypertension (OR=2.22, 95% CI:1.71-2.93), family history of diabetes (OR= 3.54, 95% CI: 2.58-4.85), overweight (OR=1.73, 95% CI: 1.20-2.48), high total cholesterol (OR=1.17, 95% CI:1.09-1.27), elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR=1.19, 95% CI:1.00-1.40) and serum insulin (OR=1.05, 95% CI:1.03-1.06) were identified as significant risk factors for T2DM, Conversely, a higher level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR=0.55, 95% CI:0.36-0.84) was found to be inversely related to T2DM development.

Conclusion

The prevalence of T2DM in Ganzhou city has significantly increased. The effective implementation of comprehensive management strategies aimed at addressing hypertension, overweight, dyslipidemia, and abnormal serum insulin level is essential for promoting overall well-being and efficiently controlling the prevalence of T2DM.

Evaluating the Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of the English NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme using a Markov Model

BACKGROUND

In 2016, England launched the largest nationwide diabetes mellitus prevention programme, the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP). This paper seeks to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of this programme.

METHODS

A Markov cohort state transition model was developed with a 35-year time horizon and yearly cycles to compare referral to the NHS DPP to usual care for individuals with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia. The modelled cohort of individuals mirrored the age profile of referrals received by the programme by April 2020. A health system perspective was taken, with costs in UK £ Sterling (price year 2020) and outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Probabilistic analysis with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations was used. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the uncertainty surrounding the base case results, particularly varying the length of time for which the effectiveness of the programme was expected to last.

RESULTS

In the base case, using only the observed effectiveness of the NHS DPP at 3 years, it was found that the programme is likely to dominate usual care, by generating on average 40.8 incremental QALYs whilst saving £135,755 in costs for a cohort of 1000. At a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY, 98.1% of simulations were on or under the willingness-to-pay threshold. Scaling this up to the number of referrals actually received by the NHS DPP prior to April 2020, cost savings of £71.4 million were estimated over the 35-year time horizon and an additional 21,472 QALYs generated. These results are robust to several sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

The NHS DPP is likely to be cost-effective. Indeed, in the majority of the simulations, the NHS DPP was cost-saving and generated greater QALYs, dominating usual care. This research should serve as evidence to support the continued investment or recommissioning of diabetes prevention programmes.

Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Sodium-Glucose Co-transporter 2 Inhibitors in Subjects with Prediabetes: A Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

INTRODUCTION

Prediabetes is a state of subclinical glycemic impairment, bridging normal glucose tolerance and diabetes. Globally, over 30% of individuals exhibit prediabetic conditions, with a significant proportion progressing to diabetes. Prediabetes augments risks of various diseases including cardiovascular and kidney disease. While interventions like lifestyle changes have shown promise in diabetes prevention, their long-term sustainability is challenging. Alternative pharmacological treatments, such as acarbose and metformin, have demonstrated efficacy in certain populations. Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors, a novel class of glucose-lowering agents, have shown potential benefits for heart and kidney health in patients with diabetes. This research aims to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of dapagliflozin in individuals with prediabetes, elucidating its potential role in diabetes prevention strategies.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This prospective trial is being conducted at Peking University Third Hospital. A total of 240 participants with prediabetes will be enrolled and randomly divided into two groups: one receiving dapagliflozin (10 mg/day) with lifestyle education, and the other with lifestyle education alone over a 12-week duration (with male/female = 1:1 in each group). Anthropometric, clinical and laboratory tests, including body mass index, waist circumference, fasting blood glucose, oral glucose tolerance test, insulin, lipid profile, liver and kidney function, sperm quality, will be conducted at the onset and conclusion of the trial. For adherence monitoring, participants will receive phone follow-ups at week 4 and week 8. The primary outcome is the change in 2-h plasma glucose during an oral glucose tolerance test over the study duration. Secondary outcomes encompass changes in various health metrics, including body mass index, lipid profiles, and liver function.

PLANNED OUTCOMES

The proposed study is set to refine diabetes prevention strategies on the basis of its potential benefits observed in patients with diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

This will be the first randomized controlled trial to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors compared with lifestyle education for individuals with prediabetes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT05914857 (registered 24 July 2023).

Cost saving analysis of prediabetes intervention modalities in comparison with inaction using Markov state transition model-A multiregional case study

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes management is a priority for policymakers globally, to avoid/delay type 2 diabetes (T2D) and reduce severe, costly health consequences. Countries moving from low to middle income are most at risk from the T2D "epidemic" and may find implementing preventative measures challenging; yet prevention has largely been evaluated in developed countries.

METHODS

Markov cohort simulations explored costs and benefits of various prediabetes management approaches, expressed as "savings" to the public health care system, for three countries with high prediabetes prevalence and contrasting economic status (Poland, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam). Two scenarios were compared up to 15 y: "inaction" (no prediabetes intervention) and "intervention" with metformin extended release (ER), intensive lifestyle change (ILC), ILC with metformin (ER), or ILC with metformin (ER) "titration."

RESULTS

T2D was the highest-cost health state at all time horizons due to resource use, and inaction produced the highest T2D costs, ranging from 9% to 34% of total health care resource costs. All interventions reduced T2D versus inaction, the most effective being ILC + metformin (ER) "titration" (39% reduction at 5 y). Metformin (ER) was the only strategy that produced net saving across the time horizon; however, relative total health care system costs of other interventions vs inaction declined over time up to 15 y. Viet Nam was most sensitive to cost and parameter changes via a one-way sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Metformin (ER) and lifestyle interventions for prediabetes offer promise for reducing T2D incidence. Metformin (ER) could reduce T2D patient numbers and health care costs, given concerns regarding adherence in the context of funding/reimbursement challenges for lifestyle interventions.

Test and Treat for Prediabetes: A Review of the Health Effects of Prediabetes and the Role of Screening and Prevention

The term prediabetes describes blood glucose levels above the normal range but below the threshold to diagnose type 2 diabetes. Several population health initiatives encourage a test and treat approach for prediabetes. In this approach, screening and identification of individuals with prediabetes should be followed by prompt referral to structured lifestyle modification programs or pharmacologic interventions that have been shown to prevent or delay the progression to type 2 diabetes in clinical trials. Here we provide a critical review of evidence for this test and treat approach by examining health outcomes associated with prediabetes and the availability and effectiveness of lifestyle modification approaches that target prediabetes. We also describe current limitations to the reach and uptake of evidence-based treatment options for prediabetes. Finally, we highlight lessons learned from identifying and labeling other preconditions to consider challenges and opportunities that may arise with increasing awareness of prediabetes as part of routine preventive care.

Cost effectiveness of nonpharmacological prevention programs for diabetes: A systematic review of trial-based studies

Trial-based economic value of prevention programs for diabetes is inexplicit. We aimed to review the cost-effectiveness of nonpharmacological interventions to prevent type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) for high-risk people. Six electronic databases were searched up to March 2022. Studies assessing both the cost and health outcomes of nonpharmacological interventions for people at high-risk of T2DM were included. The quality of the study was assessed by the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 checklist. The primary outcome for synthesis was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs were standardized in 2022 US dollars. Narrative synthesis was performed, considering different types and delivery methods of interventions. Sixteen studies included five based on the US diabetes prevention program (DPP), six on non-DPP-based lifestyle interventions, four on health education, and one on screening plus lifestyle intervention. Compared with usual care, lifestyle interventions showed higher potential of cost-effectiveness than educational interventions. Among lifestyle interventions, DPP-based programs were less cost-effective (median of ICERs: $27,077/QALY) than non-DPP-based programs (median of ICERs: $1395/QALY) from healthcare perspectives, but with larger decreases in diabetes incidence. Besides, the cost-effectiveness of interventions was more possibly realized through the combination of different delivery methods. Different interventions to prevent T2DM in high-risk populations are both cost-effective and feasible in various settings. Nevertheless, economic evidence from low- and middle-income countries is still lacking, and interventions delivered by trained laypersons and combined with peer support sessions or mobile technologies could be potentially a cost-effective solution in such settings with limited resources.

Pharmacoeconomic Aspects of Diabetes Mellitus: Outcomes and Analysis of Health Benefits Approach

Pharmacoeconomics is an important tool for investigating and restructuring healthcare policies. In India, recent statistical studies have shown that the number of diabetic patients is rapidly increasing in the rural, middle and upper-class settings. The aim of this review is to call attention towards the need to carry out pharmacoeconomic studies for diabetes mellitus and highlight the outcome of these studies on healthcare. A well-structured literature search from PubMed, Embase, Springer, ScienceDirect, and Cochrane was done. Studies that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of various anti-diabetic agents for type 2 diabetes were eligible for inclusion in the analysis and review. Two independent reviewers sequentially assessed the titles, abstracts, and full articles to select studies that met the predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria for data abstraction. Any discrepancies between the reviewers were resolved through consensus. By employing search terms such as pharmacoeconomics, diabetes mellitus, cost-effective analysis, cost minimization analysis, cost-utility analysis, and cost-benefit analysis, a total of 194 papers were gathered. Out of these, 110 papers were selected as they aligned with the defined search criteria and underwent the removal of duplicate entries. This review outlined four basic pharmacoeconomic studies carried out on diabetes mellitus. It gave a direction that early detection, patient counseling, personalized medication, appropriate screening intervals, and early start of pharmacotherapy proved to be a cost-effective as well as health benefits approach.

Analysis of Methylglyoxal Concentration in a Group of Patients with Newly Diagnosed Prediabetes

BACKGROUND

The abnormal serum concentration of methylglyoxal (MGO) has been presented as an indicator of chronic complications in diabetes (DM). Because such complications are also found in pre-DM, we decided to assess the concentration of this compound in individuals with pre-DM, without cardio-vascular diseases.

METHODS

Frozen samples from individuals newly diagnosed with pre-DM (N = 31) and healthy subjects (N = 11) were prepared and MGO concentration was determined using UHPLC-ESI-QqTOF-MS.

RESULTS

Statistical significance was established when the groups were compared for body weight, BMI, fasting glucose level, fatty liver and use of statins but not for the other descriptive parameters. The positive linear correlation showed that the higher HbA1c, the higher MGO concentration (p = 0.01). The values of MGO were within the normal range in both groups (mean value for pre-DM: 135.44 nM (±SD = 32.67) and for the control group: 143.25 nM (±SD = 17.93); p = 0.46 (±95% CI)), with no statistical significance between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not confirm the elevated MGO levels in the group of patients with pre-DM. The available data suggests a possible effect of statin intake on MGO levels. This thesis requires confirmation on a larger number of patients with an assessment of MGO levels before and after the introduction of statins.

The effect of using mobile health on self-management of type 2 diabetic patients: A systematic review in Iran

Type 2 diabetes, as one of the most common chronic diseases, requires ongoing management and support from the patient; therefore, patient participation and self-management play a pivotal role in controlling and preventing this disease. The increasing use of smartphones has provided a good opportunity for controlling and managing patients with type 2 diabetes. This study aimed to investigate the effect of mobile health on the self-management of patients with type 2 diabetes in Iran. A systematic review study was conducted from 2010 to 2021. Searches in Persian and English scientific databases, IranDoc, MagIran, SID Web of science, and PubMed, were performed using keywords such as diabetes and mobile health. The process of reviewing and selecting articles based on inclusion and exclusion criteria was performed by two researchers independently. The study evaluation was performed by using a standard tool. After selecting articles, data extraction was performed using a data extraction form. Data analysis was performed with a content analysis approach. Finally, 23 articles were included from the 7767 articles found in the initial search stage, which examined patients' self-care in 11 areas using mobile health. Fourteen studies (61%) considered mobile health to be effective in increasing hemoglobin control. Other studies also found the use of mobile health in increasing adherence to exercise (n = 10), increasing adherence to medication (n = 9), increasing adherence to diet (n = 11), increasing care for diabetic foot ulcers (n = 8), increasing self-efficacy and empowerment (n = 5), increasing cholesterol control (n = 4), increasing awareness and attitude (n = 4), increasing control of insulin dose (n = 2), increasing adherence to education (n = 1), and increasing control of blood urea (n = 1), which were considered effective. The use of m-health effectively controls the disease and promotes self-management in type 2 diabetic patients. Considering the high cost of diabetes treatment, policymakers should implement appropriate interventions and strategies in the field of using mobile health to improve adherence to self-management of the disease.

Glycated Hemoglobin Is Suboptimal for the Screening of Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Adults With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

OBJECTIVES

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but T2D screening tests are not well validated in this population. In this study, we assessed performance of glycated hemoglobin (A1C) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in glucose dysmetabolism screening and aimed to optimize detection thresholds for individuals with NAFLD.

METHODS

We retrospectively included oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) from consecutive patients undergoing a specialized clinic for NAFLD, if A1C and/or fasting glucose was available within 3 months of OGTT. We compared performances of A1C and fasting glucose with the "gold standard" of OGTT using thresholds from the 2018 Diabetes Canada guidelines. A1C and FPG thresholds were optimized for detection of glucose dysmetabolism using receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

We included 63 OGTTs from individuals with NAFLD (52% female, age 48 [interquartile range 35 to 63] years, body mass index 34 [interquartile range 29 to 40] kg/m2). A1C had 16% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6% to 38%) sensitivity (Se) and 97% (95% CI 85% to 100%) specificity (Sp) for T2D detection, and 45% (95% CI 30% to 62%) Se and 100% (95% CI 83% to 100%) Sp for abnormal blood glucose detection. FPG had 67% (95% CI 45% to 83%) Se and 100% (95% CI 92% to 100%) Sp for T2D detection, and 74% (95% CI 59% to 85%) Se and 92% (95% CI 74% to 99%) Sp for abnormal blood glucose detection. Optimal A1C and FPG thresholds were 5.6% and 6.3 mmol/L for T2D detection, which are lower than current recommendations.

CONCLUSIONS

A1C is less sensitive than FPG and is suboptimal for T2D detection, suggesting that OGTT may be obtained if A1C is ≥5.6% or FPG is ≥6.3 mmol/L in individuals with NAFLD, to avoid underdiagnosis and treatment inertia.

Cost effectiveness review of text messaging, smartphone application, and website interventions targeting T2DM or hypertension

Digital health interventions have been shown to be clinically-effective for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and hypertension prevention and treatment. This study synthesizes and compares the cost-effectiveness of text-messaging, smartphone application, and websites by searching CINAHL, Cochrane Central, Embase, Medline and PsycInfo for full economic or cost-minimisation studies of digital health interventions in adults with or at risk of T2DM and/or hypertension. Costs and health effects are synthesised narratively. Study quality appraisal using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria (CHEC) list results in recommendations for future health economic evaluations of digital health interventions. Of 3056 records identified, 14 studies are included (7 studies applied text-messaging, 4 employed smartphone applications, and 5 used websites). Ten studies are cost-utility analyses: incremental cost-utility ratios (ICUR) vary from dominant to €75,233/quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with a median of €3840/QALY (interquartile range €16,179). One study finds no QALY difference. None of the three digital health intervention modes is associated with substantially better cost-effectiveness. Interventions are consistently cost-effective in populations with (pre)T2DM but not in populations with hypertension. Mean quality score is 63.0% (standard deviation 13.7%). Substandard application of time horizon, sensitivity analysis, and subgroup analysis next to transparency concerns (regarding competing alternatives, perspective, and costing) downgrades quality of evidence. In conclusion, smartphone application, text-messaging, and website-based interventions are cost-effective without substantial differences between the different delivery modes. Future health economic studies should increase transparency, conduct sufficient sensitivity analyses, and appraise the ICUR more critically in light of a reasoned willingness-to-pay threshold.Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42021247845).

Cost and cost-effectiveness analysis of a digital diabetes prevention program: results from the PREDICTS trial

Although technology-assisted diabetes prevention programs (DPPs) have been shown to improve glycemic control and weight loss, information are limited regarding relevant costs and their cost-effectiveness. To describe a retrospective within-trial cost and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to compare a digital-based DPP (d-DPP) with small group education (SGE), over a 1-year study period. The costs were summarized into direct medical costs, direct nonmedical costs (i.e., times that participants spent engaging with the interventions), and indirect costs (i.e., lost work productivity costs). The CEA was measured by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity analysis was performed using nonparametric bootstrap analysis. Over 1 year, the direct medical costs, direct nonmedical costs, and indirect costs per participant were $4,556, $1,595, and $6,942 in the d-DPP group versus $4,177, $1,350, and $9,204 in the SGE group. The CEA results showed cost savings from d-DPP relative to SGE based on a societal perspective. Using a private payer perspective for d-DPP, ICERs were $4,739 and $114 to obtain an additional unit reduction in HbA1c (%) and weight (kg), and were $19,955 for an additional unit gain of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared to SGE, respectively. From a societal perspective, bootstrapping results indicated that d-DPP has a 39% and a 69% probability, at a willingness-to-pay of $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY, respectively, of being cost-effective. The d-DPP was cost-effective and offers the prospect of high scalability and sustainability due to its program features and delivery modes, which can be easily translated to other settings.

Optimizing strategies to identify high risk of developing type 2 diabetes

Introduction

The success of diabetes prevention based on early treatment depends on high-quality screening. This study compared the diagnostic properties of currently recommended screening strategies against alternative score-based rules to identify those at high risk of developing diabetes.

Methods

The study used data from ELSA-Brasil, a contemporary cohort followed up for a mean (standard deviation) of 7.4 (0.54) years, to develop risk functions with logistic regression to predict incident diabetes based on socioeconomic, lifestyle, clinical, and laboratory variables. We compared the predictive capacity of these functions against traditional pre-diabetes cutoffs of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) alone or combined with recommended screening questionnaires.

Results

Presenting FPG > 100 mg/dl predicted 76.6% of future cases of diabetes in the cohort at the cost of labeling 40.6% of the sample as high risk. If FPG testing was performed only in those with a positive American Diabetes Association (ADA) questionnaire, labeling was reduced to 12.2%, but only 33% of future cases were identified. Scores using continuously expressed clinical and laboratory variables produced a better balance between detecting more cases and labeling fewer false positives. They consistently outperformed strategies based on categorical cutoffs. For example, a score composed of both clinical and laboratory data, calibrated to detect a risk of future diabetes ≥20%, predicted 54% of future diabetes cases, labeled only 15.3% as high risk, and, compared to the FPG ≥ 100 mg/dl strategy, nearly doubled the probability of future diabetes among screen positives.

Discussion

Currently recommended screening strategies are inferior to alternatives based on continuous clinical and laboratory variables.

Reaching high-risk Black adults for diabetes prevention programming during a pandemic: The design of Fit & Faithful a randomized controlled community trial

Obesity is a key risk factor for Type 2 diabetes (T2D). Alarmingly, 87% of US adults have overweight or obesity, with non-Hispanic black adults having higher obesity and T2D prevalence than non-Hispanic white. The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) demonstrated the clinical benefits of lifestyle intervention (LI). While the DPP LI is effective, some participants don't achieve clinically significant weight loss in the current group-based translation paradigm. Black adults have the lowest adjusted weight loss (3.2%) among all racial/ethnic groups. Early intervention nonresponse defined as ≤1% weight loss at intervention week 4 is linked to lower probability of achieving weight loss goals. This paper describes the design and methods of a cluster randomized controlled trial among black weight loss nonresponders nested in 20 community sites (primarily churches). Descriptions of the adaptations made to transition the program to virtual format during the COVID-19 pandemic are also included. Trained community health workers deliver a group-based, 6-month long DPP over 18 sessions via Zoom. Additionally, nonresponders in the enhanced group receive weekly telephone support to provide individual-level intervention to help overcome weight loss barriers. Outcomes include weight, physical activity level, blood pressure, and dietary behaviors; these are compared between nonresponders in the enhanced intervention group and nonresponders in the active control group. Cost, mediators, and moderators are explored. If found to efficacious, these enhanced strategies could be standardized as a supplement for use with DPP nonresponders.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening to Identify Pre-Diabetes and Diabetes in the Oral Healthcare Setting

Background: This study assesses the long-term cost-effectiveness of this screening protocol from a healthcare system perspective. Methods: Australians presenting to private oral healthcare practices recruited to the iDENTify study were included as the study population. A Markov model preceded by a decision tree was developed to assess the intervention’s long-term cost-effectiveness when rolled out to all eligible Australians, and measured against ‘no-intervention’ current practice. The model consisted of four health states: normoglycaemia; pre-diabetes; type 2 diabetes and death. Intervention reach of various levels (10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%) were assessed. The model adopted a 30-year lifetime horizon and a 2020 reference year. Costs and benefits were discounted at 5% per annum. Results: If the intervention reached a minimum of 10% of the target population, over the lifetime time horizon, each screened participant would incur a cost of $38,462 and a gain of 10.564 QALYs, compared to $38,469 and 10.561 QALYs for each participant under current practice. Screening was associated with lower costs and higher benefits (a saving of $8 per person and 0.003 QALYs gained), compared to current standard practice without such screening. Between 8 and 34 type 2 diabetes cases would be avoided per 10,000 patients screened if the intervention were taken up by 10% to 40% of private oral healthcare practices. Sensitivity analyses showed consistent results. Conclusions: Implementing type 2 diabetes screening in the private oral healthcare setting using a simple risk assessment tool was demonstrated to be cost-saving. The wider adoption of such screening is recommended.

Cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies based on Chinese diabetes risk score for pre-diabetes in China

Objective

Studies have shown that screening for pre-diabetes mellitus (pre-DM) is essential to prevent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies that apply the Chinese Diabetes Risk Score (CDRS) to screen for pre-DM in China.

Methods

A Markov microsimulation model was conducted from a social perspective, and the input parameters were obtained from published literature or publicly available data. Two screening strategies for pre-DM based on CDRS were built and compared with the control group to determine the cost-effective strategy. The screening strategy of the control group was screening for pre-DM by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) test in adults undergoing annual health examination and no screening in adults without an annual health examination (status quo). Two screening strategies were strategy 1: screening for pre-DM using CDRS in all adults (including with or without an annual health examination); and strategy 2: supplemental self-screening for pre-DM using CDRS in adults without an annual health examination, based on the status quo. We focus on the cumulative prevalence of T2DM and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio which signifies the cost per case of T2DM prevented. We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness from the health system perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to verify the robustness of the results.

Results

The costs a case of T2DM prevented for strategy 1 compared with the control group and strategy 2 were $299.67 (95% CI 298.88, 300.46) and $385.89 (95% CI 381.58, 390.20), respectively. In addition, compared with the control group, the cost of strategy 2 to prevent a case of T2DM was $272.23 (95% CI 271.50, 272.96).

Conclusions

Screening for pre-DM using CDRS in all adults was the most cost-effective health policy. We suggest that medical institutions replace FPG with CDRS for pre-DM screening; at the same time, self-screening for pre-DM using CDRS is widely promoted among adults without an annual health examination. There were still some disputes about how CDRS is included in the health examination projects, so strategy 2 should be considered as an alternative screening strategy. Findings provide a reference for the application of the CDRS in pre-DM screening and contribute to T2DM prevention.

Sex differences in predictive factors for onset of type 2 diabetes in Japanese individuals: A 15-year follow-up study

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

The increase in the number of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus is an important concern worldwide. The goal of this study was to investigate factors involved in the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and sex differences in long-term follow up of people with normal glucose tolerance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Of 1,309 individuals who underwent screening at our facility in 2004, 748 individuals without diabetes were enrolled. Correlations of metabolic markers including serum adiponectin (APN) with onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus were examined over 15 years in these individuals.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier curve for onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus for 15 years in the decreased APN group was examined. Hazard ratios for the APN concentration for onset of diabetes were 1.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.63, P = 0.004) in all participants, 1.48 (95% CI 0.96-2.29, P = 0.078) for men and 3.01 (95% CI 1.37-6.59, P = 0.006) for women. During the follow-up period of 15 years, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, fatty liver, C-reactive protein and alanine aminotransferase in men were significant in univariate analysis, but only estimated glomerular filtration rate and fatty liver were significantly related to onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus in multivariate analysis. In women, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, fatty liver and APN were significant in univariate analysis, and APN was the only significant risk factor in multivariate analysis (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

There are differences between men and women with regard to targets for intervention to prevent the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Individuals requiring intensive intervention should be selected with this finding to maximize the use of limited social and economic resources.

Economic Evaluation of Health Behavior Interventions to Prevent and Manage Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Asia: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

Health behavior interventions implemented in Asian countries often lack economic evaluations that effectively address the problems of type 2 diabetes mellitus. This review systematically assessed the existing literature on economic evaluation of health behavior interventions to prevent and manage type 2 diabetes mellitus for people living in Asian countries. Eligible studies were identified through a search of six bibliographic databases, namely, PubMed, Scopus, Public Health Database by ProQuest, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature Complete, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Randomized controlled trials of health behavior interventions and studies published in the English language from January 2000 to May 2022 were included in the review. The search yielded 3867 records, of which 11 studies were included in the review. All included studies concluded that health behavior interventions were cost-effective. Eight of these studies undertook an evaluation from a health system perspective, two studies used both societal and health system perspectives, and one study utilized a societal and multi-payer perspective. This review identified the time horizon, direct and indirect medical costs, and discount rates as the most important considerations in determining cost effectiveness. These findings have implications in extending health behavior interventions to prevent and manage type 2 diabetes mellitus in low-resource settings, and are likely to yield the most promising outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Vascular hyperacetylation is associated with vascular smooth muscle dysfunction in a rat model of non-obese type 2 diabetes

Background

Advanced type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) accelerates vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) dysfunction which contributes to the development of vasculopathy, associated with the highest degree of morbidity of T2DM. Lysine acetylation, a post-translational modification (PTM), has been associated with metabolic diseases and its complications. Whether levels of global lysine acetylation are altered in vasculature from advanced T2DM remains undetermined. We hypothesized that VSMC undergoes dysregulation in advanced T2DM which is associated with vascular hyperacetylation.

Methods

Aged male Goto Kakizaki (GK) rats, a non-obese murine model of T2DM, and age-matched male Wistar rats (control group) were used in this study. Thoracic aortas were isolated and examined for measurement of global levels of lysine acetylation, and vascular reactivity studies were conducted using a wire myograph. Direct arterial blood pressure was assessed by carotid catheterization. Cultured human VSMCs were used to investigate whether lysine acetylation participates in high glucose-induced reactive oxygen species (ROS), a crucial factor triggering diabetic vascular dysfunction.

Results

The GK rats exhibited marked glucose intolerance as well as insulin resistance. Cardiovascular complications in GK rats were confirmed by elevated arterial blood pressure and reduced VSMC-dependent vasorelaxation. These complications were correlated with high levels of vascular global lysine acetylation. Human VSMC cultures incubated under high glucose conditions displayed elevated ROS levels and increased global lysine acetylation. Inhibition of hyperacetylation by garcinol, a lysine acetyltransferase and p300/CBP association factor (PCAF) inhibitor, reduced high glucose-induced ROS production in VSMC.

Conclusion

This study provides evidence that vascular hyperacetylation is associated with VSMC dysfunction in advanced T2DM. Understanding lysine acetylation regulation in blood vessels from diabetics may provide insight into the mechanisms of diabetic vascular dysfunction, and opportunities for novel therapeutic approaches to treat diabetic vascular complications.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s10020-022-00441-4.

Simulating lifestyle and medical interventions to prevent type-2 diabetes: an economic evaluation for Belgium

By 2040, over half a billion people globally are expected to have diabetes. This disease implies a loss in life quality and comes with a significant financial impact. To avoid prevalence increases in the main category of diabetes-type-2 diabetes (T-2D)-, preventive action among high-risk groups is necessary. Lifestyle and medical interventions with metformin among prediabetic individuals show strong potential to decrease or delay T-2D. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of a nation-wide implementation of these interventions, between 2020 and 2040, in Belgium. This is done through a dynamic, non-homogeneous, semi-Markov model which simulates prevalence and costs of a type of prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance or IGT) and T-2D in Belgium. High-risk individuals are first screened; individuals with IGT then enroll in a lifestyle or metformin program. Compared to no intervention, both programs are very cost effective from the perspective of the health care system and cost-saving from a broader societal perspective. Both interventions require an initial, affordable government investment and later yield government savings. The lifestyle program is a cost-effective alternative to the metformin intervention and may yield additional benefits through, for example, improvements in mental health.

IDF diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of undiagnosed diabetes in adults for 2021

AIMS

To provide up-to-date estimates of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (UDM) prevalence - both globally, and by region/country, for the year 2021.

METHODS

Data sources reporting diabetes prevalence were identified through a systematic search in the peer-reviewed and grey literature. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was estimated from the data from each country where data was available. For countries without in-country data, the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was approximated by extrapolating the average of the estimates from countries with data sources within the same International Diabetes Federation (IDF) region and World Bank income grouping. We then applied these stratified prevalence estimates of UDM from each country to the number of adults in each strata and summed the counts to generate the number of adults with UDM (aged 20-79 years) for 215 countries and territories.

RESULTS

In 2021, almost one in two adults (20-79 years old) with diabetes were unaware of their diabetes status (44.7%; 239.7 million). The highest proportions of undiagnosed diabetes (53.6%) were found in the Africa, Western Pacific (52.8%) and South-East Asia regions (51.3%), respectively. The lowest proportion of undiagnosed diabetes was observed in North America and the Caribbean (24.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes surveillance needs to be strengthened to reduce the prevalence of UDM, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

Self-administered oral glucose tolerance test with capillary glucose measurements for the screening of diabetes mellitus in high-risk adults: a feasibility study

INTRODUCTION

Early diagnosis of prediabetes based on blood sampling for the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is crucial for intervention but multiple barriers hinder its uptake. This study aimed to assess the feasibility and precision of a self-administered capillary OGTT for type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in high-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Participants with history of gestational diabetes or prediabetes were recruited in primary care. Due to their prediabetic status and previous diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus, a proportion of participants had previous experience doing OGTT. They self-administered the capillary OGTT and concurrently their venous glucose samples were obtained. They filled a questionnaire to collect their demographic information, views of their capillary OGTT, and their preferred site of the test.

RESULTS

Among 30 participants enrolled in this feasibility study, 93.3% of them felt confident of performing the capillary OGTT themselves, and 70.0% preferred the test at home. Older, less educated participants found it less acceptable. Mean capillary glucose values were significantly higher than venous glucose values, with mean difference at 0.31 mmol/L (95% CI 0.13 to 0.49) at fasting, and 0.47 mmol/L (95% CI 0.12 to 0.92) 2 hours post-OGTT. Capillary and venous glucose measurements were correlated for fasting (r=0.95; p<0.001) and 2-hour-post-OGTT (r=0.95;p<0.001). The Fleiss-Kappa Score (0.79, p<0.0001) indicated fair agreement between the two methods. The capillary OGTT had excellent sensitivity (94.1%) and negative predictive value (NPV=91.7%) in identifying prediabetes or T2DM status, vis-a-vis to venous glucose samples.

CONCLUSION

Self-administered capillary OGTT is feasible and acceptable, especially among younger adults, with excellent sensitivity and NPV compared with plasma-based OGTT.

Cost-Effectiveness of Peer-Educator-Delivered Lifestyle Modification for Type 2 Diabetes Prevention in a Young Healthy Population in Sri Lanka: A Trial-Based Economic Evaluation and Economic Model

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of an intensive lifestyle modification (LSM) intervention delivered by peer educators for the prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a young at-risk population in a low healthcare resource setting.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the short-term and long-term cost effectiveness of an intensive lifestyle modification intervention for type 2 diabetes prevention in a young urban at-risk population in Sri Lanka.

METHODS

This was an economic evaluation using cost and outcome data from a randomized controlled trial. We randomized 3539 healthy individuals aged 5-40 years with risk factors for type 2 diabetes to either 3-monthly (P-LSM n = 1727) or 12-monthly (C-LSM n = 1812) peer-educator advice aimed at reducing weight, improving diet, reducing psychological stress and increasing physical activity. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a health system perspective with outcomes expressed as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Intervention costs and outcomes were collected during a median clinical trial period of 3 years and extrapolated to a lifetime horizon using economic modelling. Uncertainty in the lifetime model was explored by structural and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The costs of the more intensive peer support programme were partially offset by reduced costs of type 2 diabetes complications recorded over the trial period and completely offset by lifetime cost savings of 6000 LKR. The more intensive P-LSM also averted more DALYs, estimated at 0.456 DALYs over the lifetime of participants.

CONCLUSIONS

In a young at-risk Sri Lanka population, an intensive LSM programme was cost effective, averting more DALYs at an acceptable additional cost than a much less intensive LSM programme. Early intervention in young at-risk people represents good value for money from the Sri Lankan health care payer perspective.

Economic impact and health care utilization outcomes of Diabetes Self-Management Education and Support interventions for persons with diabetes: a systematic review protocol

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this systematic review is to summarize and synthesize existing research on the economic impact of Diabetes Self-Management Education and Support.

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes Self-Management Education and Support is an essential component of diabetes care, yet it continues to be underutilized. A gap exists regarding the true measured economic impact of this intervention.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

This review will consider studies that report the measured economic impact and health care utilization of Diabetes Self-Management Education and Support for persons with diabetes or their caregivers. The inclusion criteria are as follows: quantitative studies providing measured data on the economic outcomes and health care utilization of Diabetes Self-Management Education and Support interventions that include at least one of the Association for Diabetes Care and Education Specialists Seven Self-Care Behaviors (ADCES7).

METHODS

The review will search the following databases: MEDLINE; Epub Ahead of Print, In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Daily and Versions; Embase; Scopus; CINAHL; ERIC, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials. Additionally, a search of the grey literature will be performed using Google Scholar. Date limitations will be from January 2006 to May 2020. Two members of the research team will independently screen abstracts and full texts, and extract data. The screening process will be described using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Articles will be assessed for risk of bias using the JBI critical appraisal tools. Data will be narratively summarized.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42020166743).

Metformin for diabetes prevention: update of the evidence base

We have conducted a narrative review based on a structured search strategy, focusing on the effects of metformin on the progression of non-diabetic hyperglycemia to clinical type 2 diabetes mellitus. The principal trials that demonstrated a significantly lower incidence of diabetes in at-risk populations randomized to metformin (mostly with impaired glucose tolerance [IGT]) were published mainly from 1999 to 2012. Metformin reduced the 3-year risk of diabetes by -31% in the randomized phase of the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), vs. -58% for intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI). Metformin was most effective in younger, heavier subjects. Diminishing but still significant reductions in diabetes risk for subjects originally randomized to these groups were present in the trial's epidemiological follow-up, the DPP Outcomes Study (DPPOS) at 10 years (-18 and -34%, respectively), 15 years (-18 and -27%), and 22 years (-18 and -25%). Long-term weight loss was also seen in both groups, with better maintenance under metformin. Subgroup analyses from the DPP/DPPOS have shed important light on the actions of metformin, including a greater effect in women with prior gestational diabetes, and a reduction in coronary artery calcium in men that might suggest a cardioprotective effect. Improvements in long-term clinical outcomes with metformin in people with non-diabetic hyperglycemia ("prediabetes") have yet to be demonstrated, but cardiovascular and microvascular benefits were seen for those in the DPPOS who did not vs. did develop diabetes. Multiple health economic analyses suggest that either metformin or ILI is cost-effective in a community setting. Long-term diabetes prevention with metformin is feasible and is supported in influential guidelines for selected groups of subjects. Future research will demonstrate whether intervention with metformin in people with non-diabetic hyperglycemia will improve long-term clinical outcomes.

Screening for Diabetes and Prediabetes

Overt type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is preceded by prediabetes and latent diabetes (lasts 9-12 years). Key dysglycemia screening tests are fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1C. Screen-detected T2DM benefits from multifactorial management of cardiovascular risk beyond glycemia. Prediabetes is best addressed by lifestyle modification, with the goal of preventing T2DM. Although there is no trial evidence of prediabetes/T2DM screening effectiveness, simulations suggest that clinic-based opportunistic screening of high-risk individuals is cost-effective. The most rigorous extant recommendations are those of the American Diabetes Association and US Preventive Services Task Force, which advise opportunistic 3-yearly screening.

Choice of HbA1c threshold for identifying individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes and implications for diabetes prevention programmes: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is common and increasing in prevalence. It is possible to prevent or delay T2D using lifestyle intervention programmes. Entry to these programmes is usually determined by a measure of glycaemia in the 'intermediate' range. This paper investigated the relationship between HbA1c and future diabetes risk and determined the impact of varying thresholds to identify those at high risk of developing T2D.

METHODS

We studied 4227 participants without diabetes aged ≥ 40 years recruited to the Exeter 10,000 population cohort in South West England. HbA1c was measured at study recruitment with repeat HbA1c available as part of usual care. Absolute risk of developing diabetes within 5 years, defined by HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol (6.5%), according to baseline HbA1c, was assessed by a flexible parametric survival model.

RESULTS

The overall absolute 5-year risk (95% CI) of developing T2D in the cohort was 4.2% (3.6, 4.8%). This rose to 7.1% (6.1, 8.2%) in the 56% (n = 2358/4224) of participants classified 'high-risk' with HbA1c ≥ 39 mmol/mol (5.7%; ADA criteria). Under IEC criteria, HbA1c ≥ 42 mmol/mol (6.0%), 22% (n = 929/4277) of the cohort was classified high-risk with 5-year risk 14.9% (12.6, 17.2%). Those with the highest HbA1c values (44-47 mmol/mol [6.2-6.4%]) had much higher 5-year risk, 26.4% (22.0, 30.5%) compared with 2.1% (1.5, 2.6%) for 39-41 mmol/mol (5.7-5.9%) and 7.0% (5.4, 8.6%) for 42-43 mmol/mol (6.0-6.1%). Changing the entry criterion to prevention programmes from 39 to 42 mmol/mol (5.7-6.0%) reduced the proportion classified high-risk by 61%, and increased the positive predictive value (PPV) from 5.8 to 12.4% with negligible impact on the negative predictive value (NPV), 99.6% to 99.1%. Increasing the threshold further, to 44 mmol/mol (6.2%), reduced those classified high-risk by 59%, and markedly increased the PPV from 12.4 to 23.2% and had little impact on the NPV (99.1% to 98.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of people are identified as high-risk using current thresholds. Increasing the risk threshold markedly reduces the number of people that would be classified as high-risk and entered into prevention programmes, although this must be balanced against cases missed. Raising the entry threshold would allow limited intervention opportunities to be focused on those most likely to develop T2D.

Women With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Have an Increased Risk of Major Cardiovascular Events: a Population Study

CONTEXT

The effects of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This work aims to establish the relative risk of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, angina, revascularization, and cardiovascular mortality for women with PCOS.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. Patients with PCOS were matched to controls (1:1) by age, body mass index (BMI) category, and primary care practice. The primary outcome was the time to major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE); a composite end point incorporating MI, stroke, angina, revascularization and cardiovascular mortality. Secondary outcomes were the individual MACE end points.

RESULTS

Of 219 034 individuals with a diagnosis of PCOS, 174 660 (79.7%) met the eligibility criteria and were matched. Crude rates of the composite end point, MI, stroke, angina, revascularization, and cardiovascular mortality were respectively 82.7, 22.7, 27.4, 32.8, 10.5, and 6.97 per 100 000 patient-years for cases, and 64.3, 15.9, 25.7, 19.8, 7.13, and 7.75 per 100 000 patient-years for controls. In adjusted Cox proportional hazard models (CPHMs), the hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.26 (95% CI, 1.13-1.41), 1.38 (95% CI, 1.11-1.72), 1.60 (95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and 1.50 (95% CI, 1.08-2.07) for the composite outcome, MI, angina, and revascularization, respectively. In a time-dependent CPHM, weight gain (HR 1.01; 1.00-1.01), prior type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (HR 2.40; 1.76-3.30), and social deprivation (HR 1.53; 1.11-2.11) increased risk of progression to the composite end point.

CONCLUSION

The risk of incident MI, angina, and revascularization is increased in young women with PCOS. Weight and T2DM are potentially modifiable risk factors amenable to intervention.

Ethnic differences in prevalence of actionable HbA1c levels in UK Biobank: implications for screening

INTRODUCTION

Early detection and treatment of diabetes as well as its prevention help lessen longer-term complications. We determined the prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in the UK Biobank and standardized the results to the UK general population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study analyzed baseline UK Biobank data on plasma glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to compare the prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in white, South Asian, black, and Chinese participants. The overall and ethnic-specific results were standardized to the UK general population aged 40-70 years of age.

RESULTS

Within the UK Biobank, the overall crude prevalence was 3.6% for pre-diabetes, 0.8% for undiagnosed diabetes, and 4.4% for either. Following standardization to the UK general population, the results were similar at 3.8%, 0.8%, and 4.7%, respectively. Crude prevalence was much higher in South Asian (11.0% pre-diabetes; 3.6% undiagnosed diabetes; 14.6% either) or black (13.8% pre-diabetes; 3.0% undiagnosed diabetes; 16.8% either) participants. Only six middle-aged or old-aged South Asian individuals or seven black would need to be tested to identify an HbA1c result that merits action.

CONCLUSIONS

Single-stage population screening for pre-diabetes or undiagnosed diabetes in middle-old or old-aged South Asian and black individuals using HbA1c could be efficient and should be considered.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.

METHODS

We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.

RESULTS

A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

Background

Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.

Methods

We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.

Results

A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.

Conclusions

Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.

Targeting of the diabetes prevention program leads to substantial benefits when capacity is constrained

OBJECTIVE

Approximately 84 million people in the USA have pre-diabetes, but only a fraction of them receive proven effective therapies to prevent type 2 diabetes. We estimated the value of prioritizing individuals at highest risk of progression to diabetes for treatment, compared to non-targeted treatment of individuals meeting inclusion criteria for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP).

METHODS

Using microsimulation to project outcomes in the DPP trial population, we compared two interventions to usual care: (1) lifestyle modification and (2) metformin administration. For each intervention, we compared targeted and non-targeted strategies, assuming either limited or unlimited program capacity. We modeled the individualized risk of developing diabetes and projected diabetic outcomes to yield lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy, from which we estimated net monetary benefits (NMB) for both lifestyle and metformin versus usual care.

RESULTS

Compared to usual care, lifestyle modification conferred positive benefits and reduced lifetime costs for all eligible individuals. Metformin's NMB was negative for the lowest population risk quintile. By avoiding use when costs outweighed benefits, targeted administration of metformin conferred a benefit of $500 per person. If only 20% of the population could receive treatment, when prioritizing individuals based on diabetes risk, rather than treating a 20% random sample, the difference in NMB ranged from $14,000 to $20,000 per person.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting active diabetes prevention to patients at highest risk could improve health outcomes and reduce costs compared to providing the same intervention to a similar number of patients with pre-diabetes without targeted selection.