SEPIVAC: a community-based study of stroke incidence in Umbria, Italy

Global Stroke Statistics 2019

BACKGROUND

Data on stroke epidemiology and availability of hospital-based stroke services around the world are important for guiding policy decisions and healthcare planning.

AIMS

To provide the most current incidence, mortality and case-fatality data on stroke and describe current availability of stroke units around the world by country.

METHODS

We searched multiple databases (based on our existing search strategy) to identify new original manuscripts and review articles published between 1 June 2016 and 31 October 2018 that met the ideal criteria for data on stroke incidence and case-fatality. For data on the availability of hospital-based stroke services, we searched PubMed for all literature published up until 31 June 2018. We further screened reference lists, citation history of manuscripts and gray literature for this information. Mortality codes for International Classification of Diseases-9 and International Classification of Diseases-10 were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database for each country providing these data. Population denominators were obtained from the World Health Organization, and when these were unavailable within a two-year period of mortality data, population denominators within a two-year period were obtained from the United Nations. Using country-specific population denominators and the most recent years of mortality data available for each country, we calculated both the crude mortality from stroke and mortality adjusted to the World Health Organization world population.

RESULTS

Since our last report in 2017, there were two countries with new incidence studies, China (n = 1) and India (n = 2) that met the ideal criteria. New data on case-fatality were found for Estonia and India. The most current mortality data were available for the year 2015 (39 countries), 2016 (43 countries), and 2017 (7 countries). No new data on mortality were available for six countries. Availability of stroke units was noted for 63 countries, and the proportion of patients treated in stroke units was reported for 35/63 countries.

CONCLUSION

Up-to-date data on stroke incidence, case-fatality, and mortality statistics provide evidence of variation among countries and changing magnitudes of burden among high and low-middle income countries. Reporting of hospital-based stroke units remains limited and should be encouraged.

The Epidemiological Characteristics of Stroke in Hunan Province, China

Previous studies have shown that Hunan Province has a high incidence of stroke and a high proportion of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Considering the changes over the past three decades, little is known about the current epidemiological characteristics of stroke in Hunan Province. In 2013, a cross-sectional study was conducted at seven national disease surveillance points (DSPs) in Hunan Province. A multistage cluster sampling method was used to select a representative sample. A total of 21,156 participants aged 20 years and older were examined. Among the 21,156 participants, the number of prevalent strokes, incident strokes and deaths was 307, 87, and 36, respectively. The 2010 China census-standardized prevalence, incidence and mortality were 1191.0 per 100,000 people [95% confidence interval (CI) 1044.8-1337.2], 333.6 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 255.7-411.5) and 129.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 81.1-178.3), respectively. Ischemic stroke (IS), ICH, subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and stroke of undetermined type (UND) constituted 50.6, 41.4, 5.7, and 2.3% of all incident stroke cases, respectively. Tianxin, Liuyang, Wuling, and Hongjiang have high proportions of ICH (61.5, 58.3, 60, and 50%, respectively). Hypertension is the most common risk factor for prevalent stroke (71.34%), followed by smoking (30.62%) and alcohol use (25.73%). In conclusion, Hunan Province has an extremely heavy stroke burden. The high proportion of ICH is not limited to the Changsha community; it represents an important issue for all of Hunan Province.

Global stroke statistics

Background Up to date data on incidence, mortality, and case-fatality for stroke are important for setting the agenda for prevention and healthcare. Aims and/or hypothesis We aim to update the most current incidence and mortality data on stroke available by country, and to expand the scope to case-fatality and explore how registry data might be complementary. Methods Data were compiled using two approaches: (1) an updated literature review building from our previous review and (2) direct acquisition and analysis of stroke events in the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for each country providing these data. To assess new and/or updated data on incidence, we searched multiple databases to identify new original papers and review articles that met ideal criteria for stroke incidence studies and were published between 15 May 2013 and 31 May 2016. For data on case-fatality, we searched between 1980 and 31 May 2016. We further screened reference lists and citation history of papers to identify other studies not obtained from these sources. Mortality codes for ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10 were extracted. Using population denominators provided for each country, we calculated both the crude mortality from stroke and mortality adjusted to the WHO world population. We used only the most recent year reported to the WHO for which both population and mortality data were available. Results Fifty-one countries had data on stroke incidence, some with data over many time periods, and some with data in more than one region. Since our last review, there were new incidence studies from 12 countries, with four meeting pre-determined quality criteria. In these four studies, the incidence of stroke, adjusted to the WHO World standard population, ranged from 76 per 100,000 population per year in Australia (2009-10) up to 119 per 100,000 population per year in New Zealand (2011-12), with the latter being in those aged at least 15 years. Only in Martinique (2011-12) was the incidence of stroke greater in women than men. In countries either lacking or with old data on stroke incidence, eight had national clinical registries of hospital based data. Of the 128 countries reporting mortality data to the WHO, crude mortality was greatest in Kazhakstan (in 2003), Bulgaria, and Greece. Crude mortality and crude incidence of stroke were both positively correlated with the proportion of the population aged ≥ 65 years, but not with time. Data on case-fatality were available in 42 studies in 22 countries, with large variations between regions. Conclusions In this updated review, we describe the current data on stroke incidence, case-fatality and mortality in different countries, and highlight the growing trend for national clinical registries to provide estimates in lieu of community-based incidence studies.

Global stroke statistics

In many countries, stroke is a lower priority than other diseases despite its public health impact. One issue is a lack of readily accessible comparative data to help make the case for the development of national stroke strategies. To assist in this process, we need to have a common repository of the latest published information on the impact of stroke worldwide. We aim to provide a repository of the most current incidence and mortality data on stroke available by country and illustrate the gaps in these data. We plan to update this repository annually and expand the scope to address other aspects of the burden of stroke. Data were compiled using two approaches: (1) an extensive literature review with a major focus on published systematic reviews on stroke incidence (between 1980 and May 14, 2013); and (2) direct acquisition and collation of data from the World Health Organization to present the most current estimates of stroke mortality for each country recognized by the World Health Organization. For mortality, ICD8, ICD9, and ICD10 mortality codes were extracted. Using population denominators crude stroke mortality was calculated, as well as adjusting for the World Health Organization world population. We used only the most recent year reported to the World Health Organization. Incidence rates for stroke were available for 52 countries, with some countries having incidence studies undertaken in more than one region. When adjusted to the World Health Organization world standard population, incidence rates for stroke ranged from 41 per 100 000 population per year in Nigeria (1971-74) to 316/ 100 000/year in urban Dar-es-Salaam (Tanzania). Some regions had three to fivefold greater incidence than other countries. Of the 123 countries reporting mortality data, crude mortality was greatest in Kazhakstan (in 2003). In many regions data were very old or nonexistent. Such country-level data are important for citizens, clinicians, and policy makers so that local and global strategies to reduce the overall burden of stroke can be implemented. Through this first annual review of country-specific stroke epidemiology, we hope to promote discussion and provide insights into the worldwide burden of stroke.

Epidemiology of stroke in Italy

This study reviews available data on stroke epidemiology in Italy. Data were identified through Medline/PubMed, Embase, and from reference lists, related articles, and citation lists of each of the retrieved papers. Nineteen papers were considered, referring to selected stroke-registers performed in seven different geographical areas: Acquaviva-Casamassima county, Aeolian Islands, Aosta district, Belluno district, L'Aquila district, Trasimeno area, and Vibo Valentia district. Registers covered a total population of 2 262 940 people, with a hospitalization rate from 82% to 98%. The mean age at stroke onset was 74·6 ± 1·1 years, 72·3 years in men and 76·6 years in women. Among all strokes: • 67·3-82·6% were classified ischemic • 9·9-19·6% as primary intracerebral hemorrhage • 1·6-4·0% as sub-arachnoid hemorrhage, and • 1·2-17·7% as undetermined. Annual incidence rates standardized to the Italian population ranged from 175/1 00 000 to 360/1 00 000 in men and from 130/1 00 000 to 273/1 00 000 in women. Thirty-day case-fatality rates for all strokes ranged from 18·1% to 33·0% while one-year case-fatality rates ranged from 37·9% to 40·2%. Data from selected Italian registers on stroke incidence and case-fatality indicate the great burden of the disease on our national healthcare system. The continuous implementation of preventive strategies, either population-based or addressed to the single patient at a high risk of stroke, is important to reduce the burden of the disease.

Stroke in the very old: a systematic review of studies on incidence, outcome, and resource use

Background and Purpose. Stroke incidence increases with age and is likely to increase in the aging populations. We investigated incidence, outcome, and resource use in very old subjects with stroke. Methods. We performed a systematic review of available data through electronic search of the literature databases and manual search of reference lists. Data were extracted for the age groups of over 80, 80 to 84 years old, and over 85. Overall incidence rates, expressed as the number of first strokes per 1000 person-years, were estimated using Poisson regression analysis. Odds ratios for the comparisons between subjects over and under 80 were calculated with the Mantel-Haenszel method. Results. We found a high incidence of stroke in the very old. The estimated incidence rates were 20.78 (95% CI 19.69 to 21.87) in subjects over 80, 17.23 (95% CI 15.97 to 18.49) for those 80 to 85 years old, and 20.78 (95% CI 16.74 to 23.78) for those over 85. Subjects over 80 contributed 29.95% of strokes; rates were similar among genders. Thirty-day case fatality rate and occurrence of dependency were higher in subjects over 80, although associated with less frequent hospital and stroke unit admission and less diagnostic resource use. Conclusions. The contribution of very old subjects to the global burden of stroke is relevant and may require efficient dedicated stroke services.

Incidence and prognosis of stroke in young adults: a population-based study in Ferrara, Italy

The reported annual incidence of juvenile stroke ranges from 9 to 47 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. We sought to estimate the incidence of first-ever stroke in young adults through a population-based stroke registry in a well-defined and stable population. We planned to collect all cases of new stroke in people aged 15-44 years in Ferrara, Italy, over the period 2002-2007. During the surveillance period, a first-ever stroke was diagnosed in 39 patients, giving a mean annual crude incidence rate of 12.1 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 8.6-16.5), 9.1 when adjusted to the European population. The overall 30-day case fatality rate was 7.7, 21.4% for hemorrhagic stroke. The incidence rate was in the range of estimates detected in western countries. The case-fatality rate was lower than that reported in less recent studies. The stroke subtype predicted the probability of death and the outcome.

The Tayside Stroke Cohort: exploiting advanced regional medical informatics to create a region-wide database for studying the pharmacoepidemiology of stroke

PURPOSE

Observational studies can provide valuable information where data from randomised controlled trials is lacking. We aimed to generate a region-wide longitudinal register of stroke patients using record-linkage of existing clinical and research datasets.

METHODS

The population were residents of Tayside, Scotland from 1994-2005. Stroke cases were identified from hospital inpatient admission records, death certificates and prescribing data. These were augmented with data derived from free-text CT-brain scan reports. Strokes were classified as intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) or ischaemic stroke (IS). The methodology was validated by audit of patient case-records. The incidence was calculated using direct standardisation to the standard European population for ages 45-84. Twenty-eight day case-fatality rates were calculated as percentages.

RESULTS

There were 12 620 all-cause incident strokes (ICH 1057; SAH 511; IS 6257; undetermined 4795). Standardised incidences per 100 000 by subtypes of stroke were: ICH 35 (95%CI 33-38), SAH 19 (17-22) and IS 210 (205-217). The 28-day case-fatality rates were: ICH 49% (95%CI 46-52), SAH 38% (34-43) and IS 19% (18-20). Comparisons with previous studies were favourable for ICH and SAH. For IS the incidence was lower and fatality rate higher than elsewhere. Three hundred and three sets of patient case records were audited. The positive predictive value (PPV) for identifying cases of stroke was 94.7% (95%CI 91.6-96.7).

CONCLUSIONS

The case ascertainment in the TSC compares favourably to established stroke cohorts. This cost effective resource can now be linked with multiple other clinical and research datasets in Tayside to further understanding of stroke and its treatment.

The incidence of major stroke subtypes in southern Italy: a population-based study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Stroke is characterized by well-defined clinical major subtypes, but there are few studies on incidence rates, aetiologies and outcomes in population-based setting. We assessed the age/sex incidence of the major stroke subtypes in a region of Southern Italy.

METHODS

We established a multisource, prospective population-based register in Puglia, Southern Italy to identify all residents with a first-ever stroke between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-seven first-ever strokes were diagnosed, and stroke subtype was defined in 119 cases. The incidence rates per 100 000 adjusted to the European population (AEP) were 112 for cerebral infarction (CI), 30 for intracerebral haemorrhage (IH), four for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SH) and nine for undetermined stroke (US). The incidence rates for CI, IH and US approximately doubled with each decade of life and were higher in men. AEP incidence rates for CI in the age groups 45-84 were lower compared to other studies, whilst the corresponding rates for IH were higher.

CONCLUSIONS

This population had a lower incidence of CI compared to other population-based studies from Northern Europe and the United States. Furthermore, with the projected increase in the segment of the very old in the general population, our data indicate that both CI and IH will dramatically increase in the near future.

Incidence and Case Fatality of Subarachnoid Haemorrhage in Northern Greece: The Evros Registry of Subarachnoid Haemorrhage

Background

Epidemiological data on subarachnoid haemorrhage incidence and case-fatality rates are scarce in the southeastern Mediterranean region. We conducted a population-based study in Evros Province, located in north-eastern Greece, to determine subarachnoid haemorrhage incidence over a 5-year period (2001–2005).

Methods

Evros Province has a well-defined, largely homogeneous population with healthcare organised around a single tertiary-care University Hospital. We organised a prospective computerised registry of permanent Evros residents admitted or transferred to our hospital with a diagnosis of subarachnoid haemorrhage. Standard World Health Organization definitions and overlapping case-finding methods were used to identify all cases of first ever in a lifetime subarachnoid haemorrhage in all age groups, occurring during the study period. The diagnosis was confirmed by computed tomography scan in all hospitalised cases. Sudden deaths attributable to subarachnoid haemorrhage were systematically recorded province-wide by our forensic department and are included in the study.

Results

During the 5-year period, 51 cases of subarachnoid haemorrhage were recorded (28 men, 23 women; mean age 59 ± 17 years). The crude annual incidence rates were 8·3/100000 persons (95% confidence interval: 5·5–12·0) for men, 7·5/100000 (4·8–11·3) for women and 7·9/100000 (5§9–10§4) for all subjects. The standardised incidence rates for groups aged 45–84 years in the European population were 9·3/100000 (5·8–12·8) for men, 6·5/100000 (3·7–9·4) for women and 7·9/100000 (5·7–10·2). The 28-day case-fatality rates for men, women and all subjects were 36% (21–54%), 35% (19–55%) and 35% (24–49%), respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence and case-fatality rate of subarachnoid haemorrhage haemorrhage in Greece appear to be similar to other developed countries. No gender differences in subarachnoid haemorrhage incidence and case-fatality rate were documented.

The impact of stroke in Italy: First step for a National Burden of Disease Study

PURPOSE

To calculate the impact of stroke in Italy in 1998, expressed in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) according to the WHO Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study.

METHOD

The data on first-ever stroke incidence (FES), remission rate and case fatality derived from the health information system and a research on post-FES disability of the Friuli Venezia-Giulia (FVG) Region, were used to compute the years of life lived with disability (YLDs), which were added to the years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), calculated from stroke mortality data, to obtain the DALYs. The results were extrapolated to the rest of Italy after examination of national stroke registries data.

RESULTS

Standardized estimated incidence of FES in FVG in 1998 was lower (135 cases of FES per 100 000 inhabitants) than that reported in other published national and international studies. Estimated case fatality rate and distribution of post-FES disability did not differ from other similar studies. About 100 000 YLLs and 273 000 YLDs due to FES were estimated in 1998 for Italy.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated proportion of the YLDs on total DALYs (27%) is comparable with that obtained in the EURO-A group (the European area including Italy) of the GBD 2000 Study (31%), and the Australian BoD Study (35%).

Changes in case fatality of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage over time, according to age, sex, and region: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In a systematic review, published in 1997, we found that the case fatality of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) decreased during the period 1960-95. Because diagnostic and treatment strategies have improved and new studies from previously non-studied regions have been published since 1995, we did an updated meta-analysis to assess changes in case fatality and morbidity and differences according to age, sex, and region.

METHODS

A new search of PubMed with predefined inclusion criteria for case finding and diagnosis identified reports on prospective population-based studies published between January, 1995, and July, 2007. The studies included in the previous systematic review were reassessed with the new inclusion criteria. Changes in case fatality over time and the effect of age and sex were quantified with weighted linear regression. Regional differences were analysed with linear regression analysis, and the regions of interest were subsequently defined as reference regions and compared with the other regions.

FINDINGS

33 studies (23 of which were published in 1995 or later) were included that described 39 study periods. These studies reported on 8739 patients, of whom 7659 [88%] were reported on after 1995. 11 of the studies that were included in the previous review did not meet the current, more stringent, inclusion criteria. The mean age of patients had increased in the period 1973 to 2002 from 52 to 62 years. Case fatality varied from 8.3% to 66.7% between studies and decreased 0.8% per year (95% CI 0.2 to 1.3). The decrease was unchanged after adjustment for sex, but the decrease per year was 0.4% (-0.5 to 1.2) after adjustment for age. Case fatality was 11.8% (3.8 to 19.9) lower in Japan than it was in Europe, the USA, Australia, and New Zealand. The unadjusted decrease in case fatality excluding the data for Japan was 0.6% per year (0.0 to 1.1), a 17% decrease over the three decades. Six studies reported data on case morbidity, but these were insufficient to assess changes over time.

INTERPRETATION

Despite an increase in the mean age of patients with SAH, case-fatality rates have decreased by 17% between 1973 and 2002 and show potentially important regional differences. This decrease coincides with the introduction of improved management strategies.

FUNDING

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research; ZonMw.

Anticoagulants for preventing recurrence following presumed non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack

BACKGROUND

After a first ischaemic stroke, further vascular events due to thromboembolism are common and often fatal. Anticoagulants could potentially reduce the risk of such events, but any benefits could be offset by an increased risk of fatal or disabling haemorrhages.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of prolonged anticoagulant therapy compared with placebo or open control following presumed non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group Trials Register in May 2008. In June 2008 we searched three online trial registers, used Web of Science Cited Reference Search to identify new citations of previously included studies, contacted a pharmaceutical company, and also contacted authors for additional information on included trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing at least one month of anticoagulant therapy with control in people with previous, presumed non-cardioembolic, ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected trials for inclusion, assessed trial quality and extracted the data.

MAIN RESULTS

Eleven trials involving 2487 participants were included. The quality of the nine trials which predated routine computerised tomography (CT) scanning and the use of the International Normalised Ratio to monitor anticoagulation was poor. There was no evidence of an effect of anticoagulant therapy on either the odds of death or dependency (two trials, odds ratio (OR) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52 to 1.34) or of 'non-fatal stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death' (four trials, OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.37). Death from any cause (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.24) and death from vascular causes (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.13) were not significantly different between treatment and control. The inclusion of two recently completed trials did not alter these conclusions. There was no evidence of an effect of anticoagulant therapy on the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.09). However, anticoagulants increased fatal intracranial haemorrhage (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.19 to 5.45), and major extracranial haemorrhage (OR 3.43, 95% CI 1.94 to 6.08). This is equivalent to anticoagulant therapy causing about 11 additional fatal intracranial haemorrhages and 25 additional major extracranial haemorrhages per year for every 1000 patients given anticoagulant therapy.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Compared with control, there was no evidence of benefit from long-term anticoagulant therapy in people with presumed non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, but there was a significant bleeding risk.

Worldwide stroke incidence and early case fatality reported in 56 population-based studies: a systematic review

This systematic review of population-based studies of the incidence and early (21 days to 1 month) case fatality of stroke is based on studies published from 1970 to 2008. Stroke incidence (incident strokes only) and case fatality from 21 days to 1 month post-stroke were analysed by four decades of study, two country income groups (high-income countries and low to middle income countries, in accordance with the World Bank's country classification) and, when possible, by stroke pathological type: ischaemic stroke, primary intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage. This Review shows a divergent, statistically significant trend in stroke incidence rates over the past four decades, with a 42% decrease in stroke incidence in high-income countries and a greater than 100% increase in stroke incidence in low to middle income countries. In 2000-08, the overall stroke incidence rates in low to middle income countries have, for the first time, exceeded the level of stroke incidence seen in high-income countries, by 20%. The time to decide whether or not stroke is an issue that should be on the governmental agenda in low to middle income countries has now passed. Now is the time for action.

Sex differences in stroke epidemiology: a systematic review

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Epidemiological studies, mainly based on Western European surveys, have shown that stroke is more common in men than in women. In recent years, sex-specific data on stroke incidence, prevalence, subtypes, severity and case-fatality have become available from other parts of the world. The purpose of this article is to give a worldwide review on sex differences in stroke epidemiology.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, tables-of-contents, review articles, and reference lists for community-based studies including information on sex differences. In some areas, such as secular trends, ischemic subtypes and stroke severity, noncommunity-based studies were also reviewed. Male/female ratios were calculated.

RESULTS

We found 98 articles that contained relevant sex-specific information, including 59 incidence studies from 19 countries and 5 continents. The mean age at first-ever stroke was 68.6 years among men, and 72.9 years among women. Male stroke incidence rate was 33% higher and stroke prevalence was 41% higher than the female, with large variations between age bands and between populations. The incidence rates of brain infarction and intracerebral hemorrhage were higher among men, whereas the rate of subarachnoidal hemorrhage was higher among women, although this difference was not statistically significant. Stroke tended to be more severe in women, with a 1-month case fatality of 24.7% compared with 19.7% for men.

CONCLUSIONS

Worldwide, stroke is more common among men, but women are more severely ill. The mismatch between the sexes is larger than previously described.

Low Incidence of Stroke in Southern Italy

Background and Purpose— Although a lower incidence of stroke has been observed in the Mediterranean area compared to other European countries, this is based on only a few studies. We sought to determine the incidence and 28-day case-fatality of stroke through a population-based stroke register in a rural area in Southern Italy, characterized by a stroke unit in the referral hospital.

Methods— We established a multisource prospective population-based register in a well defined geographic area of 38 735 inhabitants in Puglia, Southern Italy. We identified all subjects in the study area with a first-ever stroke between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2002.

Results— We identified 127 first-ever strokes (77 males, 50 females) during the two-year study period. Hospitalization was 95%: 92 cases (72.4%) were cerebral infarction, 24 (18.9%) intracerebral hemorrhage, 3 (2.4%) subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 8 (6.3%) were unclassifiable strokes. The overall crude annual incidence was 1.6 per 1000 (95%CI: 1.4 to 1.9), 2.0 for males (95% CI:1.6 to 2.5), and 1.3 for females (95% CI:0.9 to 1.6). The incidence rates standardized to the 2001 European and world populations were respectively 1.5 (2.0 for males and 1.3 for females) and 0.8 (0.9 for males and 0.6 for females). Incidence rates progressively increased with age in both sexes, reaching their peak at 85 years or more (21.4/1000 overall, 35.0 for men and 13.4 for women). The 28-day case-fatality was 18.1%.

Conclusions— Our study supports previous findings of lower incidence of stroke in the Mediterranean area, whereas the case-fatality in our study was lower than in previous studies from Italy. Further studies are needed to determine the role of prompt referral and stroke units on prognosis in population-based setting.

Patterns of Stroke Recurrence According to Subtype of First Stroke Event: The North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS)

Background

Specific information about the nature of recurrent events that occur after each subtype of index stroke may be useful for refining preventive therapies. We aimed to determine whether stroke recurrence rates, the pattern of subtype recurrence, and prescription of secondary prevention agents differed according to initial stroke subtype.

Methods

Multiple overlapping sources were used to recruit all first-ever stroke patients from a geographically defined region of Melbourne, Australia over a 3-year period from 1996 to 1999. Potential stroke recurrences (fatal and nonfatal) occurring within 2 years of the initial event were identified following patient interview and follow up of death records. Subjects were classified into the different Oxfordshire groups and the type of first-ever stroke was compared with recurrent stroke events.

Results

One thousand, three hundred and sixteen first-ever strokes were registered during the 3-year period (mean age 74·4 years). A total of 103 first recurrent stroke events (fatal and nonfatal) occurred among those with a first-ever ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) during the 2-year follow-up period. The recurrent stroke subtype was different to the index stroke subtype in most (78%) patients. People with partial anterior circulation infarct had the greatest proportion of recurrences (13%), with a third of these being the more severe total anterior circulation infarct subgroup. The relative risk of ICH after an index lacunar infarct (LACI) compared with an index non-LACI was 4·06 (95% CI 1·10–14·97, P=0·038). Prescription of secondary prevention agents was greater at 2 years after stroke than at hospital discharge, and was similar between ischemic stroke subtypes.

Conclusion

Approximately 9% of people with first-ever stroke suffered a recurrent event, despite many being prescribed secondary prevention agents. This has implications for the uptake of current preventive strategies and the development of new strategies. The possibility that ICH is greater among index LACI cases needs to be confirmed.

Prognostic factors of activity limitation and discharge destination after stroke rehabilitation

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify predictive variables related to activity limitation and home destination of a large sample of first-time stroke patients at discharge from a rehabilitation hospital.

DESIGN

A multicenter observational study was conducted among 1023 first-time stroke patients who were admitted to 18 different Italian inpatient rehabilitation centers between February 1999 and November 2000. Only 997 patients were considered eligible. At admission, sociodemographic and clinical data were considered as independent variables. The outcome measures evaluated the ability to become functionally independent (independence gain [Barthel Index score > or =18]) at discharge and home return.

RESULTS

The study data suggest that independence gain is associated with an earlier rehabilitation intervention, being male, and low or absent cognitive deficit. Home return is associated with no indwelling bladder catheterization, no dysphagia, and living with a companion (roommate or family member) before the stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

In postacute stroke rehabilitation, level of cognitive impairment, bladder dysfunction and dysphagia, early diagnosis and treatment, early rehabilitation intervention, and living status (whether the person was residing with a companion before the stroke) are important criteria for outcome measurement at the time of admission. These previous characteristics will most certainly provide clinicians with useful information during the acute phase.

Gender differences in neurological disease: role of estrogens and cytokines

Increasing evidence suggests that inflammatory response may be a critical component of different brain pathologies. However, the role played by this reaction is not fully understood. The present findings suggest that neuroinflammtory mediators such as cytokines may be involved in a number of key steps in the pathological cascade of events leading to neuronal injury. This hypothesis is strongly supported by experimental and clinical observations indicating that inhibition of the inflammatory reaction correlates with less neuronal damage. Estrogens are thought to play a role in the sex difference observed in many neurological diseases with inflammatory components including stroke, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases, multiple sclerosis, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Clinical and experimental studies have established estrogen as a neuroprotective hormone in these diseases. However, the exact mechanisms involved in the neuroprotective effects of estrogens are still unclear. It is possible that the beneficial effects of these hormones may be dependent on their inhibitory activity on the inflammatory reaction associated with the above-mentioned brain pathologies. Here, we review the current clinical and experimental evidence with respect to the inflammation-modulating effects of estrogens as one potential explanatory factor for sexual dimorzphism in the prevalence of numerous neurological diseases.

Risk factors and outcome of subtypes of ischemic stroke. Data from a multicenter multinational hospital-based registry. The European Community Stroke Project

BACKGROUND

Information on determinants and prognosis of ischemic stroke subtypes is scarce. We aimed at evaluating risk factors, pathogenesis, treatment and outcome of different ischemic stroke subtypes.

METHODS

In a European Concerted Action involving seven countries, ischemic stroke subtypes defined according to the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) were evaluated for demographics, baseline risk factors, resource use, 3-month survival, disability (Barthel Index) and handicap (Rankin Scale).

RESULTS

During the 12-month study period, cerebral infarction was diagnosed in 2740 patients with first-in-a-lifetime stroke (mean age 70.5+/-12.4 years, 53.4% males). OCSP classification was achieved in 2472 (90.2%). Of these, 26.7% were total anterior circulation infarctions (TACI), 29.9% partial anterior circulation infarctions (PACI), 16.7% posterior circulation infarctions (POCI) and 26.7% lacunar infarctions (LACI). In multivariate analysis, atrial fibrillation was predictive of TACI (odds ratio [OR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.28-2.03), hypertension (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.16-1.65) and myocardial infarction (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.08-1.86) predictive of PACI, hypertension (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.50) predictive of LACI. A negative association was observed between TACI and hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.42-0.61). Discharge home was 50% less probable in TACI and PACI than in LACI patients. As compared to LACI, TACI significantly increased the risk of 3-month death (OR, 5.73; 95% CI, 3.91-8.41), disability (OR, 3.27; 95% CI, 2.30-4.66) and handicap (OR, 2.71; 95% CI, 1.91-3.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic stroke subtypes have different risk factors profile, with consequences on pathogenesis and prognosis. Information on determinants of the clinical syndromes may impact on prevention and acute-phase interventions.

Racial variations in location and risk of intracerebral hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Risk factors for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) vary by location. Incidence rates of ICH are known to be higher in American blacks than whites, but how rates may differ by hemorrhage location is unknown. We sought to define incidence rates for different ICH locations in a biracial population.

METHODS

All hospitalized patients age > or =20 years with spontaneous ICH were identified in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky metropolitan area from May 1998 to July 2001 and August 2002 to April 2003. Incidence rates per 100,000 persons were age, sex, and race adjusted as appropriate to the 2000 US population. Risk ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs were calculated from unadjusted incidence rates.

RESULTS

There were 1038 qualifying ICHs. Annual incidence rates per 100,000 persons > or =20 years of age were 48.9 for blacks and 26.6 for whites. Annual incidence rates per 100,000 blacks in lobar, deep cerebral, brain stem, and cerebellar locations were 15.2, 25.7, 5.1, and 2.9, respectively. Annual incidence rates per 100,000 whites in the same locations were 9.4, 13.0, 1.3, and 2.9. The greatest excess risk of ICH in blacks compared with whites was found among young to middle-aged (35 to 54 years) persons with brain stem (RR, 9.8; 95% CI, 4.2 to 23.0) and deep cerebral (RR, 4.5; 3.0 to 6.8) hemorrhage.

CONCLUSIONS

The excess risk of ICH in American blacks is largely attributable to higher hemorrhage rates in young and middle-aged persons, particularly for deep cerebral and brain stem locations. Hypertension is the predominant risk factor for hemorrhages in these locations.

Stroke Incidence and 30-Day Case-Fatality in a Suburb of Tbilisi

Background and Purpose— Although stroke is one of the main public health problems worldwide, no study of stroke incidence has been performed in Georgia, and therefore, a population-based registry was established to determine the incidence and case-fatality rates of first-ever stroke.

Methods— We identified all first-ever strokes between November 2000 and July 2003 in a defined population of 51 246 residents in the Sanzona suburb of Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, using overlapping sources of information and standard diagnostic criteria.

Results— A total of 233 first-ever strokes occurred during the study period. The crude annual incidence rate was 165 (95% CI, 145 to 188) per 100 000 residents. The corresponding rate adjusted to the standard “world” population was 103 (95% CI, 89 to 117). In terms of stroke subtype, the crude annual incidence rate per 100 000 inhabitants was 89 (95% CI, 74 to 106) for ischemic stroke, 44 (95% CI, 34 to 57) for intracerebral hemorrhage, 16 (95% CI, 10 to 25) for subarachnoidal hemorrhage, and 16 (95% CI, 10 to 25) for unspecified stroke, and the corresponding case-fatality rates at 1 month were 19.2%, 48.4%, 47.8%, and 69.6%.

Conclusion— The overall stroke incidence rate in an urban population of Georgia is comparable to those reported in developed countries. As for the stroke subtypes, there is an excess of hemorrhagic strokes compared with other registries. Geographical and lifestyle variations may explain these findings, whereas inadequacy of the stroke care system in Georgia might contribute to the high case-fatality.

Direct Assessment of Completeness of Ascertainment in a Stroke Incidence Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Validity of comparisons of stroke incidence between studies or time periods depends on the completeness of ascertainment. Ascertainment cannot be reliably assessed indirectly by statistical methods, such as capture-recapture. We report the first use of direct methods to determine the completeness of different ascertainment strategies in a population-based stroke incidence study (Oxford Vascular Study).

METHODS

We assessed completeness of 2 different ascertainment strategies: the core methods common to most previous incidence studies and core plus supplementary methods used in some studies (including access to carotid and brain imaging referrals and assessment of patients referred as "transient ischemic attack" or "recurrent stroke"). We assessed completeness of ascertainment in 2 ways. First, we searched anonymized primary care electronic patient records of the whole study population (n=90,542). Second, we interviewed and followed-up a high-risk subset of our study population: all patients who had an acute coronary or peripheral vascular event or a related elective investigation or intervention.

RESULTS

126 strokes were ascertained by the core plus supplementary methods, of which only 108 were identified by the core methods alone. Only 2 additional incident strokes were identified by access to primary care electronic patient records of the whole study population. Assessment and follow-up of 1103 high-risk individuals (5.5% of our total study population aged older than 60 years) identified 16 incident strokes. However, all 16 had already been ascertained by the core plus supplementary methods.

CONCLUSIONS

The core methods of ascertainment used in some stroke incidence studies lead to significant underascertainment. However, direct assessment of ascertainment suggests that the supplementary methods used in recent studies can lead to near-complete ascertainment.

Prospective community-based study of stroke in Northern Portugal: incidence and case fatality in rural and urban populations

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Mortality statistics indicate that Portugal has the highest stroke mortality in Western Europe. Data on stroke incidence in Northern Portugal, the region with the highest mortality, are lacking. This study was designed to determine stroke incidence and case fatality in rural and urban populations in Northern Portugal.

METHODS

All suspected first-ever-in-a-lifetime strokes occurring between October 1998 and September 2000 in 37,290 residents in rural municipalities and 86,023 living in the city of Porto were entered in a population-based registry. Standard definitions and comprehensive sources of information were used for identification of patients who were followed-up at 3 and 12 months after onset of symptoms.

RESULTS

During a 24-month period, 688 patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, 226 in rural and 462 in urban areas. The crude annual incidence was 3.05 (95% CI, 2.65 to 3.44) and 2.69 per 1000 (95% CI, 2.44 to 2.93) for rural and urban populations, respectively; the corresponding rates adjusted to the European standard population were 2.02 (95% CI, 1.69 to 2.34) and 1.73 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.92). Age-specific incidence followed different patterns in rural and urban populations, reaching major discrepancy for those 75 to 84 years old, 20.2 (95% CI, 16.1 to 25.0) and 10.9 (95% CI, 9.0 to 12.8), respectively. Case fatality at 28 days was 14.6% (95% CI, 10.2 to 19.3) in rural and 16.9% (95% CI, 13.7 to 20.6) in urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke incidence in rural and urban Northern Portugal is high compared to that reported in other Western Europe regions. The high official mortality in our country, which could be explained by a relatively high incidence, was not because of a high case fatality rate.

Acute stroke in the very elderly: epidemiological features, stroke subtypes, management, and outcome in Martinique, French West Indies

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Stroke incidence increases with increasing age and has an impact on daily living in many areas. With increasing life expectancy, old people will constitute the majority of stroke victims. We present the first stroke study focusing on very old patients in a black Caribbean population (Martinique, French West Indies).

METHODS

All Martinican patients suffering from their first-ever stroke during 1 calendar year between June 1, 1998, and May 31, 1999, were included. Epidemiological, clinical, neuroimaging, management, and outcome data during the first month were collected and compared between very old patients (>or=85 years) and patients aged <85 years.

RESULTS

One hundred patients aged >or=85 years and 480 patients aged <85 years were included (sex ratio, women/men, 2.84 and 0.85, respectively; mean+/-SD age, 88.8+/-3.6 and 65.8+/-13.3 years, respectively). The incidence of first-ever stroke was 1.64/1000 per year in the Martinique population and 18.2/1000 per year in patients aged >or=85 years. Elderly patients showed a significantly lower proportion of diabetes (19.1% versus 32.2%; P=0.012) and smoking (0% versus 8.4%; P=0.004) and a higher proportion of peripheral artery disease (23.4% versus 11.4%; P=0.002). Prevalence of hypertension was identical in the 2 groups (70%). There were no significant differences in stroke types or ischemic stroke subtypes between the 2 groups. Active medical care was poorer in older than in younger patients (hospitalization rate, 89% versus 94.4%; admission to neurological ward, 8% versus 23.8%; rate of performance of a CT scan, 82% versus 94%). The 30-day case fatality rate was approximately twice as high in elderly patients (31% versus 16.7%; P=0.0009), and disability (Rankin Scale score >or=3) in survivors was markedly higher (78% versus 48%; P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

In Martinique, the incidence of first-ever stroke in very old black Caribbean patients seems similar to that in white patients. They have the same pathological type and subtype of stroke as do young patients. The poorer stroke outcome found in the elderly during the first month may be related in large part to less active management than in younger patients.

Recurrence of intracranial aneurysms in autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

The natural history of intracranial aneurysms (ICAs) in individuals with autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is poorly defined.

METHODS

We followed twenty ADPKD subjects, eleven with ruptured and nine with intact ICA, for 15.2 +/- 8.1 years (range, 6.0 to 33.2 years). Initial diagnosis was by four-vessel cerebral angiography in eighteen subjects. Follow-up examinations were four-vessel cerebral angiography in fourteen and magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) in six subjects. We examined the occurrence of new ICAs, an increase in size of existing ICAs, recurrent rupture or surgical intervention, and death.

RESULTS

Age at initial diagnosis of ICA was 37.7 +/- 10.4 years (range, 20.2 to 53.1 years). Seventeen subjects (85%) had an anterior and three (15%) had a posterior ICA at initial diagnosis. On restudy, five subjects (25%) had a significant change, consisting of new ICAs in a different location in all five and an increase in size of an existing ICA in two of the five. All subjects with ruptured ICA and one subject with intact ICA had undergone surgery at the time of initial diagnosis. Ten subjects (50%) underwent further surgery 8.1 +/- 6.1 years later (1.3 to 17 years). No subject died during follow-up and one subject experienced a recurrent RICA (RICA). We were unable to identify risk factors associated with development of a new ICA or increase in size of an existing ICA.

CONCLUSION

Individuals with ADPKD and ICA appear to be at moderate risk for new ICAs and increase in size of existing ICAs; mortality and risk of recurrent rupture, however, appear to be low.

Incidence, risk, and case fatality of first ever stroke in the elderly population. The Rotterdam Study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence, survival, and lifetime risk of stroke in the elderly population.

METHODS

The authors conducted a study in 7,721 participants from the population based Rotterdam Study who were free from stroke at baseline (1990-1993) and were followed up for stroke until 1 January 1999. Age and sex specific incidence, case fatality rates, and lifetime risks of stroke were calculated.

RESULTS

Mean follow up was 6.0 years and 432 strokes occurred. The incidence rate of stroke per 1,000 person years increased with age and ranged from 1.7 (95% CI 0.4 to 6.6) in men aged 55 to 59 years to 69.8 (95% CI 22.5 to 216.6) in men aged 95 years or over. Corresponding figures for women were 1.2 (95% CI 0.3 to 4.7) and 33.1 (95% CI 17.8 to 61.6). Men and women had similar absolute lifetime risks of stroke (21% for those aged 55 years). The survival after stroke did not differ according to sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke incidence increases with age, also in the very old. Although the incidence rate is higher in men than in women over the entire age range, the lifetime risks were similar for both sexes.

Anticoagulants for preventing recurrence following presumed non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack

BACKGROUND

After a first ischaemic stroke, further vascular events due to thromboembolism (especially myocardial infarction and recurrent stroke) are common and often fatal. Anticoagulants could potentially reduce the risk of such events, but any benefits could be offset by an increased risk of fatal or disabling haemorrhages.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this review was to assess the effect of prolonged anticoagulant therapy (compared with placebo or open control) following presumed non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group trials register. We contacted companies marketing anticoagulant agents. The most recent search for this review was carried out in August 2002.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing at least one month of anticoagulant therapy with control in people with previous presumed non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two reviewers independently selected trials for inclusion, assessed trial quality and extracted the data.

MAIN RESULTS

Eleven trials involving 2487 patients were included. The quality of the 9 trials which predated routine computerised tomography scanning and the use of the International Normalised Ratio to monitor anticoagulation was poor. There was no evidence of an effect of anticoagulant therapy on either the odds of death or dependency (two trials, odds ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52 to 1.34) or of 'non-fatal stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death' (four trials, odds ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.68-1.37). Death from any cause (odds ratio 0.95, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.24) and death from vascular causes (odds ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.13) were not significantly different between treatment and control. The inclusion of two recent completed trials did not alter these conclusions. There was no evidence of an effect of anticoagulant therapy on the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke (odds ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.09). However, anticoagulants increased fatal intracranial haemorrhage (odds ratio 2.54, 95% CI 1.19 to 5.45), and major extracranial haemorrhage (odds ratio 3.43, 95% CI 1.94 to 6.08). This is equivalent to anticoagulant therapy causing about 11 additional fatal intracranial haemorrhages and 25 additional major extracranial haemorrhages per year for every 1000 patients given anticoagulant therapy.

REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS

Compared with control, there was no evidence of benefit from long-term anticoagulant therapy in people with presumed non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, but there was a significant bleeding risk.

Development and validation of a model to estimate stroke incidence in a population

Stroke is a common condition with a substantial impact on health care. Using published epidemiological data, a mathematical model was created to predict annual stroke incidence in populations over 45 years old, utilizing age, gender, ethnicity, and stroke risk factor prevalence (hypertension, atrial fibrillation, diabetes, smoking, and ischemic heart disease). The purpose of this study is to assess the models ability to reliably estimate the annual number of first strokes. The model was validated against two cohorts: the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study (NM), performed in 1995 and 1996, and the Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS), undertaken in 1980-84, 1984-88, and 1988-93. Both cohorts provided the actual number of first strokes for respective years and risk factor prevalence. The Mantel-Haenszel test compared actual to predicted incidence rates. The two cohorts differed in risk factor prevalences, size, and demographics. For all cohort groups/years, the predicted number of annual first strokes was not statistically different from actual first stroke incidence (P > .05). In NM, the actual number of first strokes compared to predicted was 7 versus 13 (P = .18) for 1995 and 9 versus 18 (P = .08) for 1996. Actual and predicted annual strokes in CCHS for the time frames 1980-83, 1984-88, and 1988-93 were 65 versus 69 (P = .73), 72 versus 87 (P = .23), and 75 versus 93 (P = .16), respectively. The model provides a tool for estimating annual first strokes within a population, with a tendency of bias toward overestimating the number of incident strokes. This evidence-based model may be utilized by health policy makers to predict stroke burden at a population level.

Predicting outcome after acute and subacute stroke: development and validation of new prognostic models

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Statistical models to predict the outcome of patients with acute and subacute stroke could have several uses, but no adequate models exist. We therefore developed and validated new models.

METHODS

Regression models to predict survival to 30 days after stroke and survival in a nondisabled state at 6 months were produced with the use of established guidelines on 530 patients from a stroke incidence study. Three models were produced for each outcome with progressively more detailed sets of predictor variables collected within 30 days of stroke onset. The models were externally validated and compared on 2 independent cohorts of stroke patients (538 and 1330 patients) by calculating the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and by plotting calibration graphs.

RESULTS

Models that included only 6 simple variables (age, living alone, independence in activities of daily living before the stroke, the verbal component of the Glasgow Coma Scale, arm power, ability to walk) generally performed as well as more complex models in both validation cohorts (AUC 0.84 to 0.88). They had good calibration but were overoptimistic in patients with the highest predicted probabilities of being independent. There were no differences in AUCs between patients seen within 48 hours of stroke onset and those seen later; between ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes; and between those with and without a previous stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The simple models performed well enough to be used for epidemiological purposes such as stratification in trials or correction for case mix. However, clinicians should be cautious about using these models, especially in hyperacute stroke, to influence individual patient management until they have been further evaluated. Further research is required to test whether additional information from brain imaging improves predictive accuracy.

Epidemiology of ischemic stroke subtypes according to TOAST criteria: incidence, recurrence, and long-term survival in ischemic stroke subtypes: a population-based study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence, recurrence, and long-term survival rates of ischemic stroke subtypes by a mechanism-based classification scheme (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment, or TOAST).

METHODS

We identified all 583 residents of the city of Erlangen, Bavaria, Germany, with a first ischemic stroke between 1994 and 1998. Multiple overlapping sources of information were used to ensure completeness of case ascertainment. The cause of ischemic stroke was classified according to the TOAST criteria. Patients were followed up at 3 months and 1 and 2 years after stroke onset.

RESULTS

The age-standardized incidence rates for the European population (per 100 000) regarding ischemic stroke subtypes were as follows: cardioembolism, 30.2 (95% CI 25.6 to 35.7); small-artery occlusion, 25.8 (95% CI 21.5 to 30.9); and large-artery atherosclerosis, 15.3 (95% CI 12 to 19.3). When age-adjusted to the European population, the incidence rate for large-artery atherosclerosis was more than twice as high for men than for women (23.6/100 000 versus 9.2/100 000). Two years after onset, patients in the small-artery occlusion subgroup were 3 times more likely to be alive than those with cardioembolism. Ischemic stroke subtype according to the TOAST criteria was a significant predictor for long-term survival, whereas subtype was not a significant predictor of long-term recurrence up to 2 years, both before and after adjustment for age and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Epidemiological observational studies that possess wide access to appropriate diagnostic technologies and apply standardized etiologic classifications provide a much better understanding of underlying risk factors for initial stroke, recurrence, and mortality.

Early carotid endarterectomy for critical carotid artery stenosis after thrombolysis therapy in acute ischemic stroke in the middle cerebral artery

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) has been shown to be effective for acute ischemic stroke. However, if a high-grade cervical carotid stenosis remains despite tPA therapy, patients are at risk for recurrent stroke. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) has been shown to be effective in symptomatic patients with high-grade cervical carotid stenosis in reducing the risk of stroke, but it is unknown whether CEA can be performed safely after tPA thrombolysis. We describe our experience with 5 patients who underwent early (<48 hours) CEA for residual high-grade cervical carotid stenosis after thrombolytic therapy for acute ischemic stroke in the middle cerebral artery territory.

METHODS

All patients had a critical (>99%) carotid artery stenosis on the symptomatic side after tPA therapy. All patients received intravenous tPA; 3 patients also received intra-aortic tPA. Three patients received intravenous heparin infusion immediately after administration of tPA. All patients showed marked improvement in their National Institutes for Health Stroke Scale scores after treatment with tPA. CEA was then performed within 45 hours (6 hours in 1 patient, 23 hours in 2, 26 hours in 1, and 45 hours in 1).

RESULTS

All 5 patients underwent successful CEA. There were no complications related to surgery. At discharge, 2 patients had a normal examination, and the remaining patients had mild deficits. In a long-term follow-up of 5 to 22 months, no patient had a recurrent cerebrovascular event.

CONCLUSIONS

Early CEA can be performed safely and successfully in patients after tPA treatment for acute ischemic stroke in appropriately selected patients.

Incidence of the major stroke subtypes: initial findings from the North East Melbourne stroke incidence study (NEMESIS)

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Population-based stroke incidence studies are the only accurate way to determine the number of strokes that occur in a given society. Because the major stroke subtypes have different patterns of incidence and outcome, information on the natural history of stroke subtypes is essential. The purpose of the present study was to determine the incidence and case-fatality rate of the major stroke subtypes in a geographically defined region of Melbourne, Australia.

METHODS

All suspected strokes that occurred among 133 816 residents of suburbs north and east of Melbourne, Australia, during a 12-month period of 1996 and 1997 were identified and assessed. Multiple overlapping sources were used to ascertain cases, and standard criteria for stroke and case-fatality were used. Stroke subtypes were defined by CT, MRI, and autopsy.

RESULTS

Three hundred eighty-one strokes occurred among 353 persons during the study period, with 276 (72%) being first-ever-in-a-lifetime strokes. Of these, 72.5% (95% CI 67.2% to 77.7%) were cerebral infarction, 14.5% (95% CI 10.3% to 18.6%) were intracerebral hemorrhage, 4.3% (95% CI 1.9% to 6.8%) were subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 8.7% (95% CI 5.4% to 12.0%) were stroke of undetermined type. The 28-day case-fatality rate was 12% (95% CI 7% to 16%) for cerebral infarction, 45% (95% CI 30% to 60%) for intracerebral hemorrhage, 50% (95% CI 22% to 78%) for subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 38% (95% CI 18% to 57%) for stroke of undetermined type.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall distribution of stroke subtypes and 28-day case-fatality rates are not significantly different from those of most European countries or the United States. There may, however, be some differences in the incidence of subtypes within Australia.

A comparison of the costs and survival of hospital-admitted stroke patients across Europe

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Policy makers require evidence on the costs and outcomes of different ways of organizing stroke care. This study compared the costs and survival of different ways of providing stroke care.

METHODS

Hospitalized stroke patients from 13 European centers were included, with demographic, case-mix, and resource use variables measured for each patient. Unit costs were collected and converted into US dollars using the purchasing power parity (PPP) index. Cox and linear regression analyses were used to compare survival and costs between the centers adjusting for case mix.

RESULTS

A total of 1847 patients were included in the study. After case-mix adjustment, the mean predicted costs ranged from $466 [95% CI 181 to 751] in Riga (Latvia) to $8512 [7696 to 9328] in Copenhagen (Denmark), which reflected differences in unit costs, and resource use. The mean length of hospitalization ranged from 8.3 days in Menorca (Spain) to 36.8 days in Turku B (Finland). In the 3 Finnish centers at least 80% of patients were admitted to wards providing organized stroke care, which was not provided at the centers in Almada (Portugal), Menorca, or Riga. Patients in Turku A and Turku B were less likely to die than those in Riga, Warsaw (Poland), or Menorca. The adjusted hazard ratios were 0.18 [0.10 to 0.32] for Turku A, 0.18 [0.10 to 0.32] for Turku B, 0.68 [0.48 to 0.96] for Warsaw, and 0.56 [0.33 to 0.96] for Menorca, all compared with Riga.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of stroke care varies across Europe because of differences in unit costs, and resource use. Further research is needed to assess which ways of organizing stroke care are the most cost-effective.

Stroke incidence on the east coast of Australia: the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS)

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Community-based stroke incidence studies are the most accurate way of explaining mortality trends and developing public health policy. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of stroke in a geographically defined region of Melbourne, Australia.

METHODS

All suspected strokes occurring in a population of 133 816 residents in suburbs north and east of Melbourne, Australia, during a 12-month period of 1996 and 1997 were found and assessed. Multiple overlapping sources were used to ascertain cases, and standard definitions and criteria for stroke and case fatality were used.

RESULTS

A total of 381 strokes occurred among 353 people during the study period, 276 (72%) of which were first-ever-in-a-lifetime strokes. The crude annual incidence rate (first-ever strokes) was 206 (95% CI, 182 to 231) per 100 000 per year overall, 195 (95% CI, 161 to 229) for males, and 217 (95% CI, 182 to 252) for females. The corresponding rates adjusted to the "world" population were 100 (95% CI, 80 to 119) overall, 113 (95% CI, 92 to 134) for males, and 89 (95% CI, 70 to 107) for females. The 28-day case fatality rate for first-ever strokes was 20% (95% CI, 16% to 25%).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence rate of stroke in our population-based study is similar to that of many European studies but is significantly higher than that observed on the west coast of Australia.

Carotid disease in acute stroke: A review

This article reviews the literature about carotid disease in acute stroke. Several conclusions are drawn. First, carotid disease is an important cause of ipsilateral cortical strokes, with significant ipsilateral disease found in about one fourth of patients. Second, the role of carotid disease in lacunar stroke is less certain but probably causes a small number of lacunar infarcts. Third, the majority of infarcts that occur with severe carotid stenosis or acute carotid occlusion are caused by cerebral emboli, whereas most infarcts with preexisting occlusion are probably caused by hemodynamic factors. Fourth, the optimal timing of carotid surgery in acute stroke is uncertain. Clinical trials of endarterectomy in acute stroke are now required.

Risk of primary intracerebral haemorrhage associated with aspirin and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between use of aspirin or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and intracerebral haemorrhage.

DESIGN

Case-control study.

SETTING

13 major city hospitals in the Melbourne and metropolitan area.

SUBJECTS

331 consecutive cases of stroke verified by computed tomography or postmortem examination, and 331 age (+/- 5 years) and sex matched controls who were community based neighbours.

INTERVENTIONS

Questionnaire administered to all subjects either directly or by proxy with the next of kin. Drug use was validated by reviewing prescribing records held by the participants' doctors.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Previous use of aspirin or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed no increased risk of intracerebral haemorrhage with low dose aspirin use in the preceding 2 weeks. Using multiple logistic regression to control for possible confounding factors, the odds ratio associated with the use of aspirin was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.60 to 1. 66, P=0.998) and the odds ratio associated with the use of other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was 0.85 (0.45 to 1.61, P=0. 611) compared with respective non-users in the preceding fortnight. Moderate to high doses of aspirin (>1225 mg/week spread over at least three doses) yielded an odds ratio of 3.05 (1.02 to 9.14, P=0. 047). There was no evidence of an increased risk among subgroups defined by age, sex, blood pressure status, alcohol intake, smoking, and the presence or absence of previous cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

No increase in risk of intracerebral haemorrhage was found among aspirin users overall or among those who took low doses of the drug or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. These data provide evidence that doses of aspirin usually used for prophylaxis against vascular disease produce no substantial increase in risk of intracerebral haemorrhage.

Stroke incidence and case fatality in southern Greece: the Arcadia stroke registry

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

For Greece, information on incidence of stroke and distribution of type of stroke has not been reported. We determined the incidence of first-ever stroke in men and women, the incidence of stroke by type, and the associated case fatality.

METHODS

A population-based registry was established in the Arcadia province, located in eastern central Peloponessos, in the southern part of Greece. Between November 1, 1993, and October 31, 1995, all subjects with a first-ever stroke were identified. For case ascertainment, information from death certificates, hospital records, public health centers, and general practitioners was used.

RESULTS

During a 24-month period, 555 subjects with a first-ever stroke were registered. The incidence rates (per 100 000) by age group (18 to 34, 35 to 44, 45 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, 75 to 84, >/=85 years) for men were 5, 31, 113, 240, 662, 1275, and 3218, respectively. For women, the rates were 11, 18, 48, 196, 478, 1166, and 2137, respectively. Age- and sex-standardized to the European population, the annual incidence rate for subjects aged 45 to 84 years was 319.4/100 000 (95% CI, 283 to 356). In men, cerebral infarction was diagnosed in 81% of cases, intracerebral hemorrhage in 16%, and subarachnoid hemorrhage in 2%. For women, these figures were 85%, 12%, and 3%, respectively. The 28-day case fatality rate was 26.6% (95% CI, 22.9% to 30.2%), with no differences between men and women. Case-fatality increased with age and was higher for intracerebral hemorrhage than for cerebral infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of stroke in our population-based study ranks low part compared with other European studies. The distribution of stroke types and case fatality rate appear to be similar to those of other industrialized countries.

Stroke incidence and survival in three Sicilian municipalities. Sicilian Neuro-Epidemiologic Study (SNES) Group

We investigated the incidence of first-ever stroke in three Sicilian municipalities over the years 1984-1987. Case ascertainment involved two approaches: a door-to-door two-phase prevalence survey and a study of death certificates. Only first-ever strokes occurring within the study time interval were included, and diagnoses were based on specified criteria. We found 138 subjects who had experienced a first stroke over 73 488 person-years; the average incidence rate (new cases per 1000 population per year) was 1.9 overall, 1.7 in men, and 2.1 in women. Incidence increased steeply with age and was similar in men and women. Incidence was similar in the three study municipalities. The overall case-fatality rate was 35% at 30 days and 22% at one week. Survival after stroke was similar in men and women but better in younger compared to older stroke patients. Comparisons with previous studies suggest the absence of major geographic variations in stroke incidence within Italy.

A prospective community-based study of stroke in Germany--the Erlangen Stroke Project (ESPro): incidence and case fatality at 1, 3, and 12 months

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In Germany, basic data on stroke morbidity are lacking. If a population-based register in former East Germany is excluded, only routine mortality statistics have thus far provided information on epidemiology of stroke. Therefore, a population-based register of stroke was set up in Southern Germany to determine incidence and case fatality in a defined German population.

METHODS

The Erlangen Stroke Project (ESPro) is a prospective community-based study among the 101 450 residents of the city of Erlangen, Bavaria, Germany. Standard definitions and overlapping case-finding methods were used to identify all cases of first-ever stroke in all age-groups, occurring in the 2 years of registration (April 1, 1994, to March 31, 1996). All identified cases of first-ever strokes were followed up at 3 and 12 months from onset.

RESULTS

During 2 years of registration, 354 first-ever-in-a-lifetime strokes (FELS) were registered. The diagnosis and stroke type were confirmed by CT scan in 95% of cases. Fifty-one percent of all FELS occurred in the age group >/=75 years of age. The crude annual incidence rate was 1.74 per 1000 (1.47 for men and 2.01 for women). After age-adjustment to the European population, the incidence rate was 1.34 per 1000 (1.48 for men and 1. 25 for women). The annual crude incidence rate of cerebral infarction was 1.37/1000, intracerebral hemorrhage 0.24/1000, subarachnoid hemorrhage 0.06/1000, and unspecified stroke 0.08/1000. Overall case fatality at 28 days was 19.4%, at 3 months it was 28.5%, and at 1 year 37.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

The first prospective community-based stroke register including all age groups in Germany revealed incidence rates of stroke similar to those reported from other population-based studies in western industrialized countries, but lower than that observed in former East Germany.

Diagnosis of stroke by the nonneurologist. A validation study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The first medical contact of an acute stroke victim is often a nonneurologist. Validation of stroke diagnosis made by these medical doctors is poorly known. The present study seeks to validate the stroke diagnoses made by general practitioners (GPs) and hospital emergency service physicians (ESPs).

METHODS

Validation through direct interview and examination by a neurologist was performed for diagnoses of stroke made by GPs in patients under their care and doctors working at the emergency departments of 3 hospitals.

RESULTS

Validation of the GP diagnosis was confirmed in 44 cases (85%); 3 patients (6%) had transient ischemic attacks and 5 (9%) suffered from noncerebrovascular disorders. Validation of the ESP diagnosis was confirmed in 169 patients (91%); 16 (9%) had a noncerebrovascular diagnosis. Overall, the most frequent conditions misdiagnosed as stroke were neurological in nature (cerebral tumor, 3; subdural hematoma, 1; seizure, 1; benign paroxysmal postural vertigo, 1; peripheral facial palsy, 2; psychiatric condition, 6; and other medical disorders, 7).

CONCLUSIONS

In the majority of cases, nonneurologists (either GPs or ESPs) can make a correct diagnosis of acute stroke. Treatment of acute stroke with drugs that do not cause serious side effects can be started before evaluation by a neurologist and CT scan.