Short term estimates of adult HIV incidence by mode of transmission: Kenya and Thailand as examples

Cost-Effectiveness of Therapeutic Use of Safety-Engineered Syringes in Healthcare Facilities in India

BACKGROUND

Globally, 16 billion injections are administered each year of which 95% are for curative care. India contributes 25-30% of the global injection load. Over 63% of these injections are reportedly unsafe or deemed unnecessary.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained with the introduction of safety-engineered syringes (SES) as compared to disposable syringes for therapeutic care in India.

METHODS

A decision tree was used to compute the volume of needle-stick injuries (NSIs) and reuse episodes among healthcare professionals and the patient population. Subsequently, three separate Markov models were used to compute lifetime costs and QALYs for individuals infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Three SES were evaluated-reuse prevention syringe (RUP), sharp injury prevention (SIP) syringe, and syringes with features of both RUP and SIP. A lifetime study horizon starting from a base year of 2017 was considered appropriate to cover all costs and consequences comprehensively. A systematic review was undertaken to assess the SES effects in terms of reduction in NSIs and reuse episodes. These were then modelled in terms of reduction in transmission of blood-borne infections, life-years and QALYs gained. Future costs and consequences were discounted at the rate of 3%. Incremental cost per QALY gained was computed to assess the cost-effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to account for parameter uncertainties.

RESULTS

The introduction of RUP, SIP and RUP + SIP syringes in India is estimated to incur an incremental cost of Indian National Rupee (INR) 61,028 (US$939), INR 7,768,215 (US$119,511) and INR 196,135 (US$3017) per QALY gained, respectively. A total of 96,296 HBV, 44,082 HCV and 5632 HIV deaths are estimated to be averted due to RUP in 20 years. RUP has an 84% probability to be cost-effective at a threshold of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The RUP syringe can become cost saving at a unit price of INR 1.9. Similarly, SIP and RUP + SIP syringes can be cost-effective at a unit price of less than INR 1.2 and INR 5.9, respectively.

CONCLUSION

RUP syringes are estimated to be cost-effective in the Indian context. SIP and RUP + SIP syringes are not cost-effective at the current unit prices. Efforts should be made to bring down the price of SES to improve its cost-effectiveness.

Role of medicinal plants in HIV/AIDS therapy

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) causes the potentially life-threatening and chronic disease called acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). The main target of this viral disease is to suppress the immune system and make the body unresponsive to external stimuli. According to global health observatory data since epidemic, more than 78 million people were affected by HIV and 39 million people died globally. Until 2017, 36.5 million people were living with HIV. An estimated 0.8% (0.6%-0.9%) of adults aged 15-49 years worldwide is living with HIV. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that the African region remains most severely affected, with nearly one in every 25 adults (4.1%) living with HIV and accounting for nearly two-thirds of the people living with HIV worldwide. WHO reported that globally only 21.7 million (19.1 million-22.6 million) people have had access to antiretroviral therapy up to 2017. Currently, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is available for the control of HIV but has serious associated side effects such as lipodystrophy. Because of the limitations, associated with ART, researchers throughout the world are trying to explore and develop more reliable and safe drugs from natural resources to manage HIV infection. A wide range of medicinal plants have been studied and have reported significant potential against HIV. Plants like Rheum palmatum L., Rheum officinale, Trigonostem axyphophylloides, Vatica astrotricha, Vernonia amygdalina, Hypoxias pelargonium, Sidoides hemerocallidea and Sutherlandia frutescens etc. have high efficacy to cure HIV. The exact mechanism of action is still not known but various phytoconstituents isolated from medicinal plants such as alkaloids, flavonoids, polyphenols, terpenoids, tannins, proteins and coumarins have the potential to interrupt the life cycle of HIV as well as act as immunomodulators to enhance the immune system of infected patients with no well reported side effects. It could be concluded that medicinal plants have potential for the management of HIV/AIDS but more studies are needed to reveal rigorous efficacy and safety concerns by conducting clinical trials at vast level to explore therapeutic impact of medicinal plants.

Genetic Cluster Analysis for HIV Prevention

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review summarizes the use of genetic similarity clusters to understand HIV transmission and inform prevention efforts.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent emphases include the development of real-time cluster identification in order to interrupt transmission chains, the use of clusters to estimate rates of transmission along the HIV care cascade, and the extension of cluster analyses to understand transmission in the generalized epidemics of sub-Saharan Africa. Importantly, this recent empirical work has been accompanied by theoretical work that elucidates the processes that underlie HIV genetic similarity clusters; multiple studies suggest that clusters are not necessarily enriched with individuals with high transmission rates, but rather can reflect variation in sampling times within a population, with individuals sampled early in infection more likely to cluster. Analyses of genetic similarity clusters have great promise to inform HIV epidemiology and prevention. Future emphases should include the collection of additional sequence data from underrepresented populations, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa, and further development and evaluation of clustering methods.

Pharmaceutical Approaches to HIV Treatment and Prevention

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection continues to pose a major infectious disease threat worldwide. It is characterized by the depletion of CD4+ T cells, persistent immune activation, and increased susceptibility to secondary infections. Advances in the development of antiretroviral drugs and combination antiretroviral therapy have resulted in a remarkable reduction in HIV-associated morbidity and mortality. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) leads to effective suppression of HIV replication with partial recovery of host immune system and has successfully transformed HIV infection from a fatal disease to a chronic condition. Additionally, antiretroviral drugs have shown promise for prevention in HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and treatment as prevention. However, ART is unable to cure HIV. Other limitations include drug-drug interactions, drug resistance, cytotoxic side effects, cost, and adherence. Alternative treatment options are being investigated to overcome these challenges including discovery of new molecules with increased anti-viral activity and development of easily administrable drug formulations. In light of the difficulties associated with current HIV treatment measures, and in the continuing absence of a cure, the prevention of new infections has also arisen as a prominent goal among efforts to curtail the worldwide HIV pandemic. In this review, the authors summarize currently available anti-HIV drugs and their combinations for treatment, new molecules under clinical development and prevention methods, and discuss drug delivery formats as well as associated challenges and alternative approaches for the future.

Late Presentation of HIV Infection in the Netherlands: Reasons for Late Diagnoses and Impact on Vocational Functioning

Late diagnosis of HIV remains a major challenge in the HIV epidemic. In Europe, about 50% of all people living with HIV are diagnosed late after infection has occurred. Insight into the reasons for late diagnoses is necessary to increase the number of early diagnoses and optimize treatment options. This qualitative study explored the experiences of 34 late-presenters through in-depth semi-structured interviews. A variety of reasons for late diagnoses emerged from our data and led to a division into four groups, characterized by two dimensions. Regarding vocational functioning, the consequences of late diagnoses were health-related problems prior to and since diagnosis, and problems concealing the HIV status. Healthcare providers should offer HIV tests to groups at risk, and be alert for clinical HIV indicator conditions. It is recommended to increase awareness of HIV transmission routes, symptoms and tests, and the benefits of early testing and early entry to HIV care.

Risk Behaviors Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in Bangkok: A Qualitative Study to Understand and Contextualize High HIV Incidence

The Bangkok Men Who Have Sex With Men (MSM) Cohort Study has shown high HIV incidence (8-12/100 person-years) among 18-21-year-old MSM. These data led to a further study using qualitative methods among young (18-24 years old) MSM in order to understand the factors driving the HIV epidemic among YMSM. We conducted eight focus group discussions and 10 key informant interviews among YMSM in Bangkok, Thailand. Sociodemographic and behavioral data were collected using a questionnaire. We audio-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed qualitative and questionnaire data using computer software. The categories relating to risk behavior were (1) the use of social networks for seeking sexual partners and the marketing promotions of MSM entertainment venues, (2) social influence by peers and older MSM, (3) easy access to high parties and group sex, (4) easy access to club drugs, (5) conceptions related to HIV risk, and (6) sexual preferences of YMSM. Increased HIV testing, same-sex education, and YMSM-specific HIV prevention efforts are urgently needed for YMSM in Bangkok.

Dynamics and control of infections on social networks of population types

Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption of random mixing is inappropriate for epidemics that are concentrated in groups of people at high risk, including female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients (MCF), injecting drug users (IDU) and men who have sex with men (MSM). To find out who transmits infection to whom and how that affects the spread and containment of infection remains a major empirical challenge in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. Here we develop a technique, based on the routine sampling of infection in linked population groups (a social network of population types), which shows how an HIV/AIDS epidemic in Can Tho Province of Vietnam began in FSW, was propagated mainly by IDU, and ultimately generated most cases among the female partners of MCF (FPM). Calculation of the case reproduction numbers within and between groups, and for the whole network, provides insights into control that cannot be deduced simply from observations on the prevalence of infection. Specifically, the per capita rate of HIV transmission was highest from FSW to MCF, and most HIV infections occurred in FPM, but the number of infections in the whole network is best reduced by interrupting transmission to and from IDU. This analysis can be used to guide HIV/AIDS interventions using needle and syringe exchange, condom distribution and antiretroviral therapy. The method requires only routine data and could be applied to infections in other populations.

Modular programming for tuberculosis control, the "AuTuMN" platform

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is now the world's leading infectious killer and major programmatic advances will be needed if we are to meet the ambitious new End TB Targets. Although mathematical models are powerful tools for TB control, such models must be flexible enough to capture the complexity and heterogeneity of the global TB epidemic. This includes simulating a disease that affects age groups and other risk groups differently, has varying levels of infectiousness depending upon the organ involved and varying outcomes from treatment depending on the drug resistance pattern of the infecting strain.

RESULTS

We adopted sound basic principles of software engineering to develop a modular software platform for simulation of TB control interventions ("AuTuMN"). These included object-oriented programming, logical linkage between modules and consistency of code syntax and variable naming. The underlying transmission dynamic model incorporates optional stratification by age, risk group, strain and organ involvement, while our approach to simulating time-variant programmatic parameters better captures the historical progression of the epidemic. An economic model is overlaid upon this epidemiological model which facilitates comparison between new and existing technologies. A "Model runner" module allows for predictions of future disease burden trajectories under alternative scenario situations, as well as uncertainty, automatic calibration, cost-effectiveness and optimisation. The model has now been used to guide TB control strategies across a range of settings and countries, with our modular approach enabling repeated application of the tool without the need for extensive modification for each application.

CONCLUSIONS

The modular construction of the platform minimises errors, enhances readability and collaboration between multiple programmers and enables rapid adaptation to answer questions in a broad range of contexts without the need for extensive re-programming. Such features are particularly important in simulating an epidemic as complex and diverse as TB.

Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets despite expected donor withdrawal by combining improved ART procurement mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies

BACKGROUND

Despite a non-decreasing HIV epidemic, international donors are soon expected to withdraw funding from Kazakhstan. Here we analyze how allocative, implementation, and technical efficiencies could strengthen the national HIV response under assumptions of future budget levels.

METHODOLOGY

We used the Optima model to project future scenarios of the HIV epidemic in Kazakhstan that varied in future antiretroviral treatment unit costs and management expenditure-two areas identified for potential cost-reductions. We determined optimal allocations across HIV programs to satisfy either national targets or ambitious targets. For each scenario, we considered two cases of future HIV financing: the 2014 national budget maintained into the future and the 2014 budget without current international investment.

FINDINGS

Kazakhstan can achieve its national HIV targets with the current budget by (1) optimally re-allocating resources across programs and (2) either securing a 35% [30%-39%] reduction in antiretroviral treatment drug costs or reducing management costs by 44% [36%-58%] of 2014 levels. Alternatively, a combination of antiretroviral treatment and management cost-reductions could be sufficient. Furthermore, Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious targets of halving new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 2020 compared to 2014 levels by attaining a 67% reduction in antiretroviral treatment costs, a 19% [14%-27%] reduction in management costs, and allocating resources optimally.

SIGNIFICANCE

With Kazakhstan facing impending donor withdrawal, it is important for the HIV response to achieve more with available resources. This analysis can help to guide HIV response planners in directing available funding to achieve the greatest yield from investments. The key changes recommended were considered realistic by Kazakhstan country representatives.

Strengthening HIV surveillance: measurements to track the epidemic in real time

Surveillance for HIV as a public health initiative requires timely, detailed and robust data to systematically understand burden of infection, transmission patterns, direct prevention efforts, guide funding, identify new infections and predict future trends in the epidemic. The methods for HIV surveillance have evolved to reliably track the epidemic and identify new infections in real time. Initially HIV surveillance relied primarily on the reporting of AIDS cases followed by measuring antibodies to HIV to determine prevalence in key populations. With the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) resulting in better survival and the corresponding increase in HIV prevalence, the landscape of surveillance shifted further to track HIV prevalence and incidence within the context of programmes. Recent developments in laboratory assays that potentially measure and differentiate recent versus established HIV infection offer a cost-effective method for the rapid estimation of HIV incidence. These tests continue to be validated and are increasingly useful in informing the status of the epidemic in real time. Surveillance of heterogeneity of infections contributing to sub-epidemics requires methods to identify affected populations, density, key geographical locations and phylogenetically linked or clustered infections. Such methods could provide a nuanced understanding of the epidemic and prioritise prevention efforts to those most vulnerable. This paper brings together recent developments and challenges facing HIV surveillance, together with the application of newer assays and methods to fast-track the HIV prevention and treatment response.

Data and methods to characterize the role of sex work and to inform sex work programs in generalized HIV epidemics: evidence to challenge assumptions

In the context of generalized human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemics, there has been limited recent investment in HIV surveillance and prevention programming for key populations including female sex workers. Often implicit in the decision to limit investment in these epidemic settings are assumptions including that commercial sex is not significant to the sustained transmission of HIV, and HIV interventions designed to reach "all segments of society" will reach female sex workers and clients. Emerging empiric and model-based evidence is challenging these assumptions. This article highlights the frameworks and estimates used to characterize the role of sex work in HIV epidemics as well as the relevant empiric data landscape on sex work in generalized HIV epidemics and their strengths and limitations. Traditional approaches to estimate the contribution of sex work to HIV epidemics do not capture the potential for upstream and downstream sexual and vertical HIV transmission. Emerging approaches such as the transmission population attributable fraction from dynamic mathematical models can address this gap. To move forward, the HIV scientific community must begin by replacing assumptions about the epidemiology of generalized HIV epidemics with data and more appropriate methods of estimating the contribution of unprotected sex in the context of sex work.

Identifying Risk Factors for Recent HIV Infection in Kenya Using a Recent Infection Testing Algorithm: Results from a Nationally Representative Population-Based Survey

Introduction

A recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) that can distinguish recent from long-standing HIV infection can be applied to nationally representative population-based surveys to characterize and identify risk factors for recent infection in a country.

Materials and Methods

We applied a RITA using the Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay (LAg) on stored HIV-positive samples from the 2007 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey. The case definition for recent infection included testing recent on LAg and having no evidence of antiretroviral therapy use. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with recent and long-standing infection compared to HIV-uninfected persons. All estimates were weighted to adjust for sampling probability and nonresponse.

Results

Of 1,025 HIV-antibody-positive specimens, 64 (6.2%) met the case definition for recent infection and 961 (93.8%) met the case definition for long-standing infection. Compared to HIV-uninfected individuals, factors associated with higher adjusted odds of recent infection were living in Nairobi (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 11.37; confidence interval [CI] 2.64–48.87) and Nyanza (AOR 4.55; CI 1.39–14.89) provinces compared to Western province; being widowed (AOR 8.04; CI 1.42–45.50) or currently married (AOR 6.42; CI 1.55–26.58) compared to being never married; having had ≥ 2 sexual partners in the last year (AOR 2.86; CI 1.51–5.41); not using a condom at last sex in the past year (AOR 1.61; CI 1.34–1.93); reporting a sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis or symptoms of STI in the past year (AOR 1.97; CI 1.05–8.37); and being aged <30 years with: 1) HSV-2 infection (AOR 8.84; CI 2.62–29.85), 2) male genital ulcer disease (AOR 8.70; CI 2.36–32.08), or 3) lack of male circumcision (AOR 17.83; CI 2.19–144.90). Compared to HIV-uninfected persons, factors associated with higher adjusted odds of long-standing infection included living in Coast (AOR 1.55; CI 1.04–2.32) and Nyanza (AOR 2.33; CI 1.67–3.25) provinces compared to Western province; being separated/divorced (AOR 1.87; CI 1.16–3.01) or widowed (AOR 2.83; CI 1.78–4.45) compared to being never married; having ever used a condom (AOR 1.61; CI 1.34–1.93); and having a STI diagnosis or symptoms of STI in the past year (AOR 1.89; CI 1.20–2.97). Factors associated with lower adjusted odds of long-standing infection included using a condom at last sex in the past year (AOR 0.47; CI 0.36–0.61), having no HSV2-infection at aged <30 years (AOR 0.38; CI 0.20–0.75) or being an uncircumcised male aged <30 years (AOR 0.30; CI 0.15–0.61).

Conclusion

We identified factors associated with increased risk of recent and longstanding HIV infection using a RITA applied to blood specimens collected in a nationally representative survey. Though some false-recent cases may have been present in our sample, the correlates of recent infection identified were epidemiologically and biologically plausible. These methods can be used as a model for other countries with similar epidemics to inform targeted combination prevention strategies aimed to drastically decrease new infections in the population.

Behaviors Associated With a Risk of HIV Transmission From HIV-Positive Street Youth to Non-Street Youth in Ukraine

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the extent to which HIV-infected street youth (living part or full time on the streets) exhibit behaviors associated with HIV transmission in their interactions with youth not living on the streets ("non-street youth"). We aimed to determine prevalences and predictors of such "bridging behaviors": inconsistent condom use and needle sharing between HIV-positive street youth and non-street youth.

METHODS

A total of 171 street youth in 3 Ukrainian cites were identified as HIV infected after testing of eligible participants aged 15 to 24 years after random selection of venues. Using data from these youth, we calculated prevalence estimates of bridging behaviors and assessed predictors using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall, two-thirds of HIV-infected street youth exhibited bridging behaviors; subgroups with high prevalences of bridging included females (78.3%) and those involved in transactional sex (84.2%). In multivariable analysis, inconsistent condom use with non-street youth was associated with being female (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR], 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.4), working (aPR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.03-1.4), multiple partners (aPR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.6), and "never" (aPR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6) or "sometimes" (aPR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.02-1.8) versus "always" sleeping on the street. Needle sharing with non-street youth was associated with being male (aPR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.02-2.0), orphaned (aPR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.8-3.0), and 2 years or less living on the streets (aPR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.5-2.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Bridging behaviors between HIV-infected street youth and non-street youth are common. Addressing the comprehensive needs of street and other at-risk youth is a critical prevention strategy.

Estimating HIV incidence among key affected populations in China from serial cross-sectional surveys in 2010-2014

Introduction

HIV incidence is an important measure for monitoring the development of the epidemic, but it is difficult to ascertain. We combined serial HIV prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence among key affected populations (KAPs) in China.

Methods

Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted among KAPs from 2010 to 2014. Trends in HIV prevalence were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test, adjusted by risk group. HIV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model that describes the relationship between changes in HIV incidence with HIV prevalence and mortality.

Results

The crude HIV prevalence for the survey samples remained stable at 1.1 to 1.2% from 2010 to 2014. Among drug users (DUs), HIV prevalence declined from 4.48 to 3.29% (p<0.0001), and among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV prevalence increased from 5.73 to 7.75% (p<0.0001). Changes in HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) and male patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics were more modest but remained statistically significant (all p<0.0001). The MSM population had the highest incidence estimates at 0.74% in 2011, 0.59% in 2012, 0.57% in 2013 and 0.53% in 2014. Estimates of the annual incidence for DUs and FSWs were very low and may not be reliable.

Conclusions

Serial cross-sectional prevalence data from representative samples may be another approach to construct approximate estimates of national HIV incidence among key populations. We observed that the MSM population had the highest incidence for HIV among high-risk groups in China, and we suggest that interventions targeting MSM are urgently needed to curb the growing HIV epidemic.

Lessons learned from respondent-driven sampling recruitment in Nairobi: experiences from the field

BACKGROUND

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is used in a variety of settings to study hard-to-reach populations at risk for HIV and sexually transmitted infections. However, practices leading to successful recruitment among diverse populations in low-resource settings are seldom reported. We implemented the first, integrated, bio-behavioural surveillance survey among men who have sex with men, female sex workers and people who injected drugs in Nairobi, Kenya.

METHODS

The survey period was June 2010 to March 2011, with a target sample size of 600 participants per key populations. Formative research was initially conducted to assess feasibility of the survey. Weekly monitoring reports of respondent characteristics and recruitment chain graphs from NetDraw illustrated patterns and helped to fill recruitment gaps.

RESULTS

RDS worked well with men who have sex with men and female sex workers with recruitment initiating at a desirable pace that was maintained throughout the survey. Networks of people who injected drugs were well-integrated, but recruitment was slower than the men who have sex with men and female sex workers surveys.

CONCLUSION

By closely monitoring RDS implementation and conducting formative research, RDS studies can effectively develop and adapt strategies to improve recruitment and improve adherence to the underlying RDS theory and assumptions.

Male circumcision to prevent syphilis in 1855 and HIV in 1986 is supported by the accumulated scientific evidence to 2015: Response to Darby

An article by Darby disparaging male circumcision (MC) for syphilis prevention in Victorian times (1837-1901) and voluntary medical MC programs for HIV prevention in recent times ignores contemporary scientific evidence. It is one-sided and cites outlier studies as well as claims by MC opponents that support the author's thesis, but ignores high quality randomised controlled trials and meta-analyses. While we agree with Darby that risky behaviours contribute to syphilis and HIV epidemics, there is now compelling evidence that MC helps reduce both syphilis and HIV infections. Although some motivations for MC in Victorian times were misguided, others, such as protection against syphilis, penile cancer, phimosis, balanitis and poor hygiene have stood the test of time. In the absence of a cure or effective prophylactic vaccine for HIV, MC should help lower heterosexually acquired HIV, especially when coupled with other interventions such as condoms and behaviour. This should save lives, as well as reducing costs and suffering. In contrast to Darby, our evaluation of the evidence leads us to conclude that MC would likely have helped reduce syphilis in Victorian times and, in the current era, will help lower both syphilis and HIV, so improving global public health.

Optima: A Model for HIV Epidemic Analysis, Program Prioritization, and Resource Optimization

Optima is a software package for modeling HIV epidemics and interventions that we developed to address practical policy and program problems encountered by funders, governments, health planners, and program implementers. Optima's key feature is its ability to perform resource optimization to meet strategic HIV objectives, including HIV-related financial commitment projections and health economic assessments. Specifically, Optima allows users to choose a set of objectives (such as minimizing new infections, minimizing HIV-related deaths, and/or minimizing long-term financial commitments) and then determine the optimal resource allocation (and thus program coverage levels) for meeting those objectives. These optimizations are based on the following: calibrations to epidemiological data; assumptions about the costs of program implementation and the corresponding coverage levels; and the effects of these programs on clinical, behavioral, and other epidemiological outcomes. Optima is flexible for which population groups (specified by behavioral, epidemiological, and/or geographical factors) and which HIV programs are modeled, the amount of input data used, and the types of outputs generated. Here, we introduce this model and compare it with existing HIV models that have been used previously to inform decisions about HIV program funding and coverage targets. Optima has already been used in more than 20 countries, and there is increasing demand from stakeholders to have a tool that can perform evidence-based HIV epidemic analyses, revise and prioritize national strategies based on available resources, set program coverage targets, amend subnational program implementation plans, and inform the investment strategies of governments and their funding partners.

Mucosal Blood Group Antigen Expression Profiles and HIV Infections: A Study among Female Sex Workers in Kenya

Background

The ABO blood group antigens are carbohydrate moieties expressed on human red blood cells however; these antigens can also be expressed on some other cells particularly the surface of epithelial cells and may be found in mucosal secretions. In many human populations 80% secrete ABO antigens (termed ‘secretors’) while 20% do not (termed ‘non-secretors’). Furthermore, there are disease conditions that are associated with secretor status.

Objective

To investigate correlations between secretor status and HIV infection among female sex workers in Nairobi, Kenya.

Methodology

This cross-sectional study recruited 280 female sex workers aged 18–65 years from the Pumwani Majengo cohort, Kenya. Blood typing was determined by serological techniques using monoclonal antibodies to the ABO blood group antigens. Secretor phenotyping was determined using anti-H specific lectins specific to salivary, vaginal and cervical blood group H antigen using the agglutination inhibition technique and correlated to individual HIV sero-status. Participants were additionally screened for Bacterial vaginosis, Neisseria gonorrhoea and Trichomonas vaginalis.

Results

Out of the 280 participants, 212 (75.7%) were secretors and 68 (24.3%) were non-secretors. The incidence of all infections: HIV, Bacterial vaginosis, Neisseria gonorrhoea and Trichomonas vaginalis was higher among secretors compared to non-secretors. However, this difference was only statistically significant for HIV infection incidence rates: HIV infected secretors (83.7%) versus HIV un-infected secretors (71.8%) (p = 0.029) Based on ABO phenotype stratification, the incidence of HIV infection was higher among blood group A secretors (26/52 = 50%), in comparison to B (12/39 = 33.3%: p = 0.066), AB (3/9 = 33.3%: p = 0.355), and O secretors (36/112 = 32.1%: p = 0.028).

Conclusion

This is the first report to document the variable expression of the ABH blood group antigens profiling secretor and non-secretor phenotypes in the female genital tract among a high-risk population in a Kenyan population. These findings suggest the non-secretor phenotype may confer a certain degree of protection against HIV infection.

The prevalence of HSV-2 infection in HIV-1 discordant couples

We aimed to investigate the prevalence and associated factors of HSV-2 discordance and concordance in HIV-1-discordant couples. This study used the baseline data from a cohort study of HIV-1-discordant couples in Dehong prefecture of Yunnan province, China. Of 954 participating couples, 42·4% were affected by HSV-2, of which 20·4% were HSV-2-concordant positive, 7·6% were HSV-2-discordant where the male was HSV-2 positive, and 14·4% were HSV-2 discordant where the female was HSV-2 positive. Compared to HSV-2-negative concordance, HSV-2 discordance with an HSV-2-positive male spouse was significantly associated with characteristics of the male spouse, including Han ethnicity and being in a second marriage. HSV-2 discordance with an HSV-2-positive female spouse was significantly associated with characteristics of the female spouse, including Han ethnicity, having engaged in commercial sex, having a sexual relationship of <3 years and being HIV-1 infected. Compared to HSV-2 discordance, HSV-2-positive concordance was significantly associated with an education level of middle school or higher for both spouses, a sexual relationship of ⩾3 years, more frequent sex and having an HIV-1-infected male spouse. The findings highlight the need for HSV-2 prevention and treatment efforts to reduce HSV-2 transmission in this population, and emphasize the importance of implementing prevention interventions early in couples' relationships.

HIV and STI prevalence and injection behaviors among people who inject drugs in Nairobi: results from a 2011 bio-behavioral study using respondent-driven sampling

There is a dearth of evidence on injection drug use and associated HIV infections in Kenya. To generate population-based estimates of characteristics and HIV/STI prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Nairobi, a cross-sectional study was conducted with 269 PWID using respondent-driven sampling. PWID were predominantly male (92.5 %). An estimated 67.3 % engaged in at least one risky injection practice in a typical month. HIV prevalence was 18.7 % (95 % CI 12.3–26.7), while STI prevalence was lower [syphilis: 1.7 % (95 % CI 0.2–6.0); gonorrhea: 1.5 % (95 % CI 0.1–4.9); and Chlamydia: 4.2 % (95 % CI 1.2–7.8)]. HIV infection was associated with being female (aOR, 3.5; p = 0.048), having first injected drugs 5 or more years ago (aOR, 4.3; p = 0.002), and ever having practiced receptive syringe sharing (aOR, 6.2; p = 0.001). Comprehensive harm reduction programs tailored toward PWID and their sex partners must be fully implemented as part of Kenya’s national HIV prevention strategy.

Male circumcision for protection against HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: the evidence in favour justifies the implementation now in progress

This article responds to a recent 'controversy study' in Global Public Health by de Camargo et al. directed at three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of male circumcision (MC) for HIV prevention. These trials were conducted in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and published in 2005 and 2007. The RCTs confirmed observational data that had accumulated over the preceding two decades showing that MC reduces by 60% the risk of HIV infection in heterosexual men. Based on the RCT results, MC was adopted by global and national HIV policy-makers as an additional intervention for HIV prevention. Voluntary medical MC (VMMC) is now being implemented in 14 SSA countries. Thus referring to MC for HIV prevention as 'debate' and viewing MC through a lens of controversy seems mistaken. In their criticism, de Camargo et al. misrepresent and misinterpret current science supporting MC for HIV prevention, omit previous denunciations of arguments similar to theirs, and ignore evidence from ongoing scientific research. Here we point out the flaws in three areas de Camargo et al. find contentious. In doing so, we direct readers to growing evidence of MC as an efficacious, safe, acceptable, relatively low-cost one-off biomedical intervention for HIV prevention.

Comparing the cost effectiveness of harm reduction strategies: a case study of the Ukraine

Background

Harm reduction strategies commonly include needle and syringe programmes (NSP), opioid substitution therapy (OST) and interventions combining these two strategies. Despite the proven effectiveness of harm-reduction strategies in reducing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among injecting drug users (IDUs), no study has compared the cost-effectiveness of these interventions, nor the incremental cost effectiveness of combined therapy. Using data from the Global Fund, this study compares the cost-effectiveness of harm reduction strategies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, using the Ukraine as a case study.

Methods

A Markov Monte Carlo simulation is carried out using parameters from the literature and cost data from the Global Fund. Effectiveness is presented as both QALYs and infections averted. Costs are measured in 2011 US dollars.

Results

The Markov Monte Carlo simulation estimates the cost-effectiveness ratio per infection averted as $487.4 [95% CI: 488.47-486.35] in NSP and $1145.9 [95% CI: 1143.39-1148.43] in OST. Combined intervention is more costly but more effective than the alternative strategies with a cost effectiveness ratio of $851.6[95% CI: 849.82-853.55].

The ICER of the combined strategy is $1086.9/QALY [95% CI: 1077.76:1096.24] compared with NSP, and $461.0/infection averted [95% CI: 452.98:469.04] compared with OST. These results are consistent with previous studies.

Conclusions

Despite the inherent limitations of retrospective data, this study provides evidence that harm-reduction interventions are a cost-effective way to reduce HIV prevalence. More research on into cost effectiveness in different settings, and the availability of fiscal space for government uptake of programmes, is required.

Psychosocial health conditions and HIV prevalence and incidence in a cohort of men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand: evidence of a syndemic effect

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Bangkok may experience multiple psychosocial health conditions, such as substance use, suicidality, and a history of sexual abuse. These factors may contribute to HIV vulnerability in a syndemic way. A syndemic is defined as a number of synergistically interacting health conditions producing excess disease in a population. The objective of this study is to examine whether psychosocial health conditions among MSM have a syndemic association with HIV prevalence and HIV incidence. To do this, we evaluated psychosocial health conditions and their associations with unprotected sex, HIV prevalence and HIV incidence in a cohort of Thai MSM (N = 1,292). There was a positive and significant association between the number of psychosocial health conditions and increased levels of unprotected sex and HIV prevalence at study baseline. The number of psychosocial health conditions at baseline was also associated with increased HIV incidence during follow-up (no conditions, HIV incidence = 15.3 %; one to three conditions, 23.7 %; four to five conditions, 33.2 %). The number of psychosocial health conditions was positively associated with HIV risk behavior and HIV prevalence and incidence. Prevention efforts among MSM need to address the existence of multiple psychosocial health conditions and their synergy to effectively decrease the spread of HIV infection.

Validation of the modes of transmission model as a tool to prioritize HIV prevention targets: a comparative modelling analysis

Background

The static Modes of Transmission (MOT) model predicts the annual fraction of new HIV infections acquired across subgroups (MOT metric), and is used to focus HIV prevention. Using synthetic epidemics via a dynamical model, we assessed the validity of the MOT metric for identifying epidemic drivers (behaviours or subgroups that are sufficient and necessary for HIV to establish and persist), and the potential consequence of MOT-guided policies.

Methods and Findings

To generate benchmark MOT metrics for comparison, we simulated three synthetic epidemics (concentrated, mixed, and generalized) with different epidemic drivers using a dynamical model of heterosexual HIV transmission. MOT metrics from generic and complex MOT models were compared against the benchmark, and to the contribution of epidemic drivers to overall HIV transmission (cumulative population attributable fraction over t years, PAF_t). The complex MOT metric was similar to the benchmark, but the generic MOT underestimated the fraction of infections in epidemic drivers. The benchmark MOT metric identified epidemic drivers early in the epidemics. Over time, the MOT metric did not identify epidemic drivers. This was not due to simplified MOT models or biased parameters but occurred because the MOT metric (irrespective of the model used to generate it) underestimates the contribution of epidemic drivers to HIV transmission over time (PAF_5–30). MOT-directed policies that fail to reach epidemic drivers could undermine long-term impact on HIV incidence, and achieve a similar impact as random allocation of additional resources.

Conclusions

Irrespective of how it is obtained, the MOT metric is not a valid stand-alone tool to identify epidemic drivers, and has limited additional value in guiding the prioritization of HIV prevention targets. Policy-makers should use the MOT model judiciously, in combination with other approaches, to identify epidemic drivers.

The HIV Modes of Transmission model: a systematic review of its findings and adherence to guidelines

INTRODUCTION

The HIV Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the annual fraction of new HIV infections (FNI) acquired by different risk groups. It was designed to guide country-specific HIV prevention policies. To determine if the MOT produced context-specific recommendations, we analyzed MOT results by region and epidemic type, and explored the factors (e.g. data used to estimate parameter inputs, adherence to guidelines) influencing the differences.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and UNAIDS reports, and contacted UNAIDS country directors for published MOT results from MOT inception (2003) to 25 September 2012.

RESULTS

We retrieved four journal articles and 20 UNAIDS reports covering 29 countries. In 13 countries, the largest FNI (range 26 to 63%) was acquired by the low-risk group and increased with low-risk population size. The FNI among female sex workers (FSWs) remained low (median 1.3%, range 0.04 to 14.4%), with little variability by region and epidemic type despite variability in sexual behaviour. In India and Thailand, where FSWs play an important role in transmission, the FNI among FSWs was 2 and 4%, respectively. In contrast, the FNI among men who have sex with men (MSM) varied across regions (range 0.1 to 89%) and increased with MSM population size. The FNI among people who inject drugs (PWID, range 0 to 82%) was largest in early-phase epidemics with low overall HIV prevalence. Most MOT studies were conducted and reported as per guidelines but data quality remains an issue.

CONCLUSIONS

Although countries are generally performing the MOT as per guidelines, there is little variation in the FNI (except among MSM and PWID) by region and epidemic type. Homogeneity in MOT FNI for FSWs, clients and low-risk groups may limit the utility of MOT for guiding country-specific interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics.

Correlates of Knowledge of HIV Transmission Among Incident Cases of HIV in a Cohort of Injection Drug Users Receiving Harm Reduction Services at Karachi, Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of risk factors for HIV transmission in high-risk population plays a critical role in averting the risk of HIV transmission. In Pakistan, injection drug users (IDUs) constitute the core risk group of HIV prevalence, where the epidemic has transitioned to a "concentrated level." Still nothing is known about the role of knowledge in HIV transmission and HIV sero-conversion among IDUs in Pakistan.

METHODS

From 2009 to 2011, a nested case-control study was conducted in a cohort of 636 IDUs receiving harm reduction services in the mega city of Karachi.

RESULTS

In multivariable regression analysis, 3 factors, namely HIV does not spread through unprotected sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-6.90, P value .01), HIV does not transmit by sharing syringes (AOR: 3.5, 95% CI 1.97-6.40, P value <.00), and the risk of HIV cannot be minimized by using new syringe every time (AOR: 2.0, 95% CI 1.16-3.60, P value .01), were significantly associated with the incident cases of HIV.

CONCLUSION

The study findings suggest the association between knowledge of HIV transmission and HIV sero-incident cases.

'Behold, a virgin is with HIV!' misreporting sexual behavior among infected adolescents

In four Southern African countries where the HIV prevalence rate is among the highest in the world, 46.4% of a sample of female adolescents infected with HIV report having never engaged in sex. This would indicate either the dominance of non-sexual modes of HIV transmission or rampant misreporting of sexual behavior in the sample. We propose a method to estimate the extent of misreporting and calculate that the true percentages of virgins among the sample of HIV-infected adolescent women is 32.1%. After accounting for misreporting, the contribution of sexual modes of HIV transmission is projected as 50.4%, compared with an estimate of 35.5% if we assume no misreporting.

Epidemic impacts of a community empowerment intervention for HIV prevention among female sex workers in generalized and concentrated epidemics

Introduction

Sex workers have endured a high burden of HIV infection in and across HIV epidemics. A comprehensive, community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention emphasizes sex worker organization and mobilization to address HIV risk and often includes community-led peer education, condom distribution, and other activities. Meta-analysis of such interventions suggests a potential 51% reduction in inconsistent condom use. Mathematical modeling exercises provide theoretical insight into potential impacts of the intervention on HIV incidence and burden in settings where interventions have not yet been implemented.

Methods

We used a deterministic model, Goals, to project the impact on HIV infections when the community empowerment interventions were scaled up among female sex workers in Kenya, Thailand, Brazil, and Ukraine. Modeling scenarios included expansion of the comprehensive community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention from baseline coverage over a 5-year period (5–65% in Kenya and Ukraine; 10–70% in Thailand and Brazil), while other interventions were held at baseline levels. A second exercise increased the intervention coverage simultaneously with equitable access to ART for sex workers. Impacts on HIV outcomes among sex workers and adults are observed from 2012–2016 and, compared to status quo when all interventions are held constant.

Results

Optimistic but feasible coverage (65%–70%) of the intervention demonstrated a range of impacts on HIV: 220 infections averted over 5 yrs. among sex workers in Thailand, 1,830 in Brazil, 2,220 in Ukraine, and 10,800 infections in Kenya. Impacts of the intervention for female sex workers extend to the adult population, cumulatively averting 730 infections in Thailand to 20,700 adult infections in Kenya. Impacts vary by country, influenced by HIV prevalence in risk groups, risk behaviors, intervention use, and population size.

Discussion

A community empowerment approach to HIV prevention and access to universal ART for female sex workers is a promising human rights-based solution to overcoming the persistent burden of HIV among female sex workers across epidemic settings.

Distribution of new HIV infections among key risk population groups in Togo

Introduction

Good data on the epidemiology of modes of transmission of HIV among population at risk are important for development of prevention strategies, and resource allocation for the implementation of the interventions. We sought to estimate new HIV infections among key risk groups in Togo.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of epidemiological data on HIV and AIDS as part of the HIV control strategies in Togo from 2001 to 2012 following the PRISMA guidelines. We used the Mode of Transmission (MoT) modelling tool to estimate the incidence of new HIV infections in high risk groups. The MoT tool was developed and validated by UNAIDS and implemented by several countries using data on the HIV epidemic to estimate new HIV infections that will appear in the core groups. We used Epi-MoT tool to assess the availability and the quality of data. A score of availability of data over 50% and the quality over 1.5 were required to proceed to the MoT analysis. Uncertainty analysis to assess the reliability of the results was performed.

Results

Incidence of new HIV infections was estimated at 6,643 (95% CI = 5274, 9005) with an incidence rate of 203 per 1,000,000 inhabitants. The proportion of new HIV infections was 61.9% (95% CI = 46.2 to 71.7) in stable heterosexual couples compare to 14.01% (95% CI = 7.2 to 23.3) in people having casual sex. In high-risk groups new HIV infections accounted for 2.4% among sex workers (SWs) (95% CI = 1.2 - 4.1), 7.9% among clients of SWs (95% CI = 3.9-14.1) and 6.9% among men who have sex with men (MSM) (95% CI = 3.1 to 13.1).

Conclusion

We describe the prediction of the HIV epidemic with a large contribution of stable heterosexual couples in the occurrence of new infections. But HIV incidence remains high in key risk populations. Innovative strategies for risk reduction should be strengthened to reduce the transmission especially in stable heterosexual couples.

Needle stick injury and HIV risk among health care workers in North India

OBJECTIVES

To determine the occurrence of needle stick injuries among various categories of health care workers (HCWs), the causal factors, and the circumstances under which these occur. 2. To explore the possibilities of measures to prevent these through improvement in knowledge, attitude, and practice.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was conducted in two government tertiary level hospitals. Study sample comprised 107 HCWs, providing medical care in two government tertiary level hospitals of Chandigarh. Subjects were enquired about their exposure to needle prick injuries during patient management in the last 6 months and also the action taken following exposure. The statistical tools employed were: ratio, proportions, and other basic methods of data interpretation.

RESULTS

The study among 107 HCWs included 27 doctors (25.2%), 68 nurses (63.5%), and 12 paramedics (11.2%), with 87 (81.3%) being females. The prevalence of needle stick injury and exposure to blood was reported by 73 (68.2%) participants. The main factor ascribed for this exposure was heavy patient load (42.5%). The maximum accidents occurred during emergency care (30.1%). Most common action following exposure was cleaning with spirit (46.3%). Only 51 (47.7%) of HCWs admitted following universal precautions. Among those exposed, only 10 (13.7%) persons had undergone HIV testing.

CONCLUSION

Two-thirds of HCWs were exposed to needle stick injuries. Lack of awareness about post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) was found.

A systematic review of heterosexual anal intercourse and its role in the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in Papua New Guinea

Background

Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a high burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and the highest adult HIV prevalence in the Pacific region. Despite this burden of disease, heterosexual anal intercourse (HAI) has rarely been considered. Given the increasing number of, and interest in, behavioural surveys in PNG and the changing nature of PNG’s HIV epidemic, it is timely to conduct a systematic review of HAI in PNG order to improve sexual health.

Methods

We performed a systematic review of HAI in PNG as reported in peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed publications for the period 1950–May 2012. The search strategy identified 475 publications. After screening by geographical location, topic and methodology, we identified 23 publications for full text review, following which 13 publications were included in the final review. Using data from the review, we performed a risk equation analysis to demonstrate the potential impact of HAI on HIV acquisition and incidence in PNG.

Results

There is a paucity of well-informed behavioural research on HAI in PNG. Inconsistency in key questions on HAI made it impossible to conduct a meta-analysis. The data available on HAI shows that it is practiced in all geographical areas and among all populations. Of those who reported HAI, rates varied from as low as 8% to as high as 77% depending on the recall period and partner type. Condom use during HAI was consistently low. Our risk equation analysis indicates that even if only 20% of females engage in HAI, and only 10% of sex acts involve HAI, the total number of new HIV infections among females would be 40% greater than if vaginal intercourse only occurred.

Conclusions

Our findings of indicate that HAI may be an important driver of the HIV epidemic in PNG. In order to improve the sexual health of Papua New Guineans, efforts are required to improve behavioural surveillance of HAI as well as develop national HIV/STI programing and policy to better address the risks associated with unprotected HAI.

Distinguishing sources of HIV transmission from the distribution of newly acquired HIV infections: why is it important for HIV prevention planning?

OBJECTIVE

The term 'source of HIV infections' has been referred to as the source of HIV transmission. It has also been interpreted as the distribution of newly acquired HIV infections across subgroups. We illustrate the importance of distinguishing the two interpretations for HIV prevention planning.

METHODS

We used a dynamical model of heterosexual HIV transmission to simulate three HIV epidemics, and estimated the sources of HIV transmission (cumulative population attributable fraction) and the single-year distribution of new HIV infections. We focused an intervention guided by the largest transmission source versus the largest single-year distribution of new HIV infections, and compared the fraction of discounted HIV infections averted over 30 years.

RESULTS

The single-year distribution of newly acquired HIV infections underestimated the source of HIV transmission in the long term, when the source was unprotected sex in high-risk groups. Under equivalent and finite resources, an intervention strategy directed by the long-term transmission source was shown to achieve a greater impact than a distribution-directed strategy, particularly in the long term.

CONCLUSIONS

Impact of HIV prevention strategies may vary depending on whether they are directed by the long-term transmission source or by the distribution of new HIV infections. Caution is required when interpreting the 'source of HIV infections' to avoid misusing the distribution of new HIV infections in HIV prevention planning.

Overview of the current state of the epidemic

At the end of 2011, about half of the 34.0 million [31.4-35.9 million] people living with HIV infection knew their HIV status. With large regional variations, an estimated 0.8% of all adults aged 15 to 49 years have HIV infection and HIV subtype diversity is increasing. Although HIV incidence has declined in 39 countries, it is stable or increasing in others. HIV prevalence continues to rise as antiretroviral treatment scale-up results in fewer HIV-related deaths while new infections continue to occur. Increased treatment uptake is likely reducing HIV transmission in countries with large mortality declines. Key populations, including sex workers, men who have sex with men, transgender people, people who inject drugs and young women in high prevalence settings require effective prevention programs urgently. Correcting mismatches in resource allocation and reducing community viral load will accelerate incidence declines and affect future epidemic trends, if concerted action is taken now.

A decade of research involving men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa: current knowledge and future directions

It has been just over 10 years since the first large behavioral survey of men who have sex with men (MSM) was implemented in Senegal in 2001. Since then, behavioral and/or HIV prevalence surveys have been conducted in over 14 other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Current available evidence and review have established that HIV prevalence among MSM in these countries are significantly higher than corresponding general populations, that MSM engage in sexual risk behaviors that place them and sexual partners at higher risk, and that issues of discrimination and stigmatization inhibit HIV interventions for MSM. This paper summarizes the existing knowledge, describes limitations of this evidence, and proposes new and enhanced research approaches to fulfill needed gaps to inform national HIV responses for MSM populations.

The impact of HAART on the respiratory complications of HIV infection: longitudinal trends in the MACS and WIHS cohorts

OBJECTIVE

To review the incidence of respiratory conditions and their effect on mortality in HIV-infected and uninfected individuals prior to and during the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

DESIGN

Two large observational cohorts of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected men (Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study [MACS]) and women (Women's Interagency HIV Study [WIHS]), followed since 1984 and 1994, respectively.

METHODS

Adjusted odds or hazards ratios for incident respiratory infections or non-infectious respiratory diagnoses, respectively, in HIV-infected compared to HIV-uninfected individuals in both the pre-HAART (MACS only) and HAART eras; and adjusted Cox proportional hazard ratios for mortality in HIV-infected persons with lung disease during the HAART era.

RESULTS

Compared to HIV-uninfected participants, HIV-infected individuals had more incident respiratory infections both pre-HAART (MACS, odds ratio [adjusted-OR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-2.7; p<0.001) and after HAART availability (MACS, adjusted-OR, 1.5; 95%CI 1.3-1.7; p<0.001; WIHS adjusted-OR, 2.2; 95%CI 1.8-2.7; p<0.001). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was more common in MACS HIV-infected vs. HIV-uninfected participants pre-HAART (hazard ratio [adjusted-HR] 2.9; 95%CI, 1.02-8.4; p = 0.046). After HAART availability, non-infectious lung diseases were not significantly more common in HIV-infected participants in either MACS or WIHS participants. HIV-infected participants in the HAART era with respiratory infections had an increased risk of death compared to those without infections (MACS adjusted-HR, 1.5; 95%CI, 1.3-1.7; p<0.001; WIHS adjusted-HR, 1.9; 95%CI, 1.5-2.4; p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

HIV infection remained a significant risk for infectious respiratory diseases after the introduction of HAART, and infectious respiratory diseases were associated with an increased risk of mortality.

Considerations regarding antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis and heterosexuals in generalized epidemic settings

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To discuss the factors pertinent to the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) by at-risk heterosexuals in countries with generalized HIV epidemics.

RECENT FINDINGS

PrEP will have the greatest prevention effect if targeted to those at highest risk, but identifying and engaging such persons is challenging. Serodiscordant couples account for a high proportion of new infections and are an appropriate target for PrEP, but the proportion of people in such relationships is small and outside partnerships are common. Differences in adherence coupled to pharmacology of the drugs may account for differences in efficacy seen in the trials. Mathematical modeling indicates that the benefits of PrEP in highly endemic settings outweigh the risk of induced viral resistance. Behavioral risk compensation was not observed in the trials, but current open-label studies will better determine if disinhibition will be an important problem.

CONCLUSIONS

PrEP is a potentially useful HIV-prevention strategy for generalized heterosexual epidemics. Optimal implementation will require learning more about ways to improve acceptability and adherence and how best to deliver PrEP within the context of limited resource availability.

The distribution of new HIV infections by mode of exposure in Morocco

Objectives

Building on a wealth of new empirical data, the objective of this study was to estimate the distribution of new HIV infections in Morocco by mode of exposure using the modes of transmission (MoT) mathematical model.

Methods

The MoT model was implemented within a collaboration with the Morocco Ministry of Health and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. The model was parameterised through a comprehensive review and synthesis of HIV and risk behaviour data in Morocco, mainly through the Middle East and North Africa HIV/AIDS Synthesis Project. Uncertainty analyses were used to assess the reliability of and uncertainty around our calculated estimates.

Results

Female sex workers (FSWs), clients of FSWs, men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs) contributed 14%, 24%, 14% and 7% of new HIV infections, respectively. Two-thirds (67%) of new HIV infections occurred among FSWs, clients of FSWs, MSM and IDUs, or among the stable sexual partners of these populations. Casual heterosexual sex contributed 7% of HIV infections. More than half (52%) of HIV incidence is among females, but 71% of these infections are due to an infected spouse. The vast majority of HIV infections among men (89%) are due to high-risk behaviour. A very small HIV incidence is predicted to arise from medical injections or blood transfusions (0.1%).

Conclusions

The HIV epidemic in Morocco is driven by HIV incidence in high-risk population groups, with commercial heterosexual sex being the largest contributor to incidence. There is a need to focus HIV response more on these populations, mainly through proactive and sustainable HIV surveillance, and the expansion and increased geographical coverage of services such as condom promotion among FSWs, voluntary counselling and testing, harm reduction and treatment.

Focusing the HIV response through estimating the major modes of HIV transmission: a multi-country analysis

Objective

An increasing number of countries have been estimating the distribution of new adult HIV infections by modes of transmission (MOT) to help prioritise prevention efforts. We compare results from studies conducted between 2008 and 2012 and discuss their use for planning and responding to the HIV epidemic.

Methods

The UNAIDS recommended MOT model helps countries to estimate the proportion of new HIV infections that occur through key transmission modes including sex work, injecting drug use (IDU), men having sex with men (MSM), multiple sexual partnerships, stable relationships and medical interventions. The model typically forms part of a country-led process that includes a comprehensive review of epidemiological data. Recent revisions to the model are described.

Results

Modelling results from 25 countries show large variation between and within regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, new infections occur largely in the general heterosexual population because of multiple partnerships or in stable discordant relationships, while sex work contributes significantly to new infections in West Africa. IDU and sex work are the main contributors to new infections in the Middle East and North Africa, with MSM the main contributor in Latin America. Patterns vary substantially between countries in Eastern Europe and Asia in terms of the relative contribution of sex work, MSM, IDU and spousal transmission.

Conclusions

The MOT modelling results, comprehensive review and critical assessment of data in a country can contribute to a more strategically focused HIV response. To strengthen this type of research, improved epidemiological and behavioural data by risk population are needed.

Two unique recombinant forms identified in incident HIV type 1 infections in Thai blood donors

HIV-1 genetic diversity of recently seroconverting (<12 months) Thai repeated blood donors attending the National Blood Centre, Thai Red Cross Society (NBC, TRCS) from September 2007 until March 2008 was assessed. Ten HIV-1 recent seroconvertors (10/239,134 donations) were identified during the study period. The estimated median time to seroconversion was 67.3 days (range: 45.5-102.0 days), and viral load ranged from 307 to 341,805 copies HIV-1 RNA/ml. MHAbce, a real-time-based PCR genotyping assay, identified six CRF01_AE, two CRF01_AE/B recombinants, one subtype B, and one CRF01_AE/B dual infection. Nine samples were further characterized by full genome sequencing, identifying CRF01_AE (N=6), unique CRF01_AE/B recombinants (N=2), and subtype B (N=1). One recombinant contained 13 breakpoints located in gag, pol, vif, vpr, env, and nef while the other recombinant contained 10 breakpoints located in pol, vif, env, and nef. This study found two unique CRF01B recombinants circulating in 10 recent HIV-1-positive subjects from a blood donor population in Thailand.

The cost-effectiveness and budget impact of Vietnam's methadone maintenance treatment programme in HIV prevention and treatment among injection drug users

We analysed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) programme in HIV prevention and treatment among injection drug users (DUs) in Vietnam. The costs and health outcomes of providing MMT for opioid-dependent DUs versus non-MMT were estimated using a decision analytical model. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to justify uncertainties of model parameters simultaneously. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of MMT in HIV prevention was US$3324 per one averted HIV case. The decision model showed that the cost-effectiveness ratio of MMT and non-MMT strategies was US$480 and US$204 per 1 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), equivalent to 0.43 and 0.18 times the gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc). The ICER for MMT versus non-MMT strategy was US$1964, approximately 1.76 times the GDPpc/QALY, classifying MMT as a cost-effective intervention. At the willingness to pay threshold of three times the GDPpc, the probability of MMT and non-MMT strategies being cost-effective was 80.3 and 19.7%, respectively. The budget impact of scaling up MMT from 2011 to 2015 will be US$97 million for 65% coverage or US$49 million for treating 80,000 DUs. The results indicated that MMT was cost-effective in HIV prevention and treatment among DUs who were opioid dependent.

Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning

The modes of transmission model has been widely used to help decision-makers target measures for preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The model estimates the number of new HIV infections that will be acquired over the ensuing year by individuals in identified risk groups in a given population using data on the size of the groups, the aggregate risk behaviour in each group, the current prevalence of HIV infection among the sexual or injecting drug partners of individuals in each group, and the probability of HIV transmission associated with different risk behaviours. The strength of the model is its simplicity, which enables data from a variety of sources to be synthesized, resulting in better characterization of HIV epidemics in some settings. However, concerns have been raised about the assumptions underlying the model structure, about limitations in the data available for deriving input parameters and about interpretation and communication of the model results. The aim of this review was to improve the use of the model by reassessing its paradigm, structure and data requirements. We identified key questions to be asked when conducting an analysis and when interpreting the model results and make recommendations for strengthening the model's application in the future.

HIV treatment as prevention: optimising the impact of expanded HIV treatment programmes

Until now, decisions about how to allocate ART have largely been based on maximising the therapeutic benefit of ART for patients. Since the results of the HPTN 052 study showed efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing HIV transmission, there has been increased interest in the benefits of ART not only as treatment, but also in prevention. Resources for expanding ART in the short term may be limited, so the question is how to generate the most prevention benefit from realistic potential increases in the availability of ART. Although not a formal systematic review, here we review different ways in which access to ART could be expanded by prioritising access to particular groups based on clinical or behavioural factors. For each group we consider (i) the clinical and epidemiological benefits, (ii) the potential feasibility, acceptability, and equity, and (iii) the affordability and cost-effectiveness of prioritising ART access for that group. In re-evaluating the allocation of ART in light of the new data about ART preventing transmission, the goal should be to create policies that maximise epidemiological and clinical benefit while still being feasible, affordable, acceptable, and equitable.

Family Kinship Patterns and Female Sex Work in the Informal Urban Settlement of Kibera, Nairobi, Kenya

A basic ecological and epidemiological question is why some women enter into commercial sex work while other women in the same socio-economic environment never do. To address this question respondent driven sampling principles were adopted to recruit and collect data for 161 female sex workers and 159 same aged women who never engaged in commercial sex in Kibera, a large informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya. Univariate analysis indicated that basic kinship measures, including number of family members seen during adolescence and at present, not having a male guardian while growing up, and earlier times of ending relationships with both male and female guardians were associated with commercial sex work in Kibera. Multivariate analysis via logistic regression modeling showed that not having a male guardian during childhood, low education attainment and a small number of family members seen at adolescence were all significant predictors of entering sex work. By far the most important predictor of entering sex work was not having any male guardian, e.g., father, uncle, older brother, etc. during childhood. Results are interpreted in light of the historic pattern of sub-Saharan African child fostering and their relevance for young women in Kibera today.

Polling booth surveys: a novel approach for reducing social desirability bias in HIV-related behavioural surveys in resource-poor settings

This study compared rates of HIV-related sexual risk behaviours reported in individual face-to-face (FTFI) and group anonymous polling booth (PBS) interviews in India. In PBS, respondents grouped by gender and marital status answered yes/no questions by putting tokens with question numbers in colour-coded containers. Data were subsequently collated for each group as a whole, so responses were not traceable back to individuals. Male and female PBS participants reported substantially higher rates of pre-marital, extra-marital, commercial and anal sex than FTFI participants; e.g. 11 vs. 2% married males reported paying for sex; 6 vs. 1% unmarried males reported homosexual anal sex.

HIV risk behavior among HIV-infected men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand

We assessed prevalence of sexually transmitted infection (STIs), sexual risk behaviors, and factors associated with risk behaviors among HIV-infected MSM attending a public STI clinic serving MSM in Bangkok, Thailand. Between October 2005-October 2007, 154 HIV-infected MSM attending the clinic were interviewed about sexual risk behaviors and evaluated for STIs. Patients were examined for genital ulcers and had serologic testing for syphilis and PCR testing for chlamydia and gonorrhea. Results showed that sexual intercourse in the last 3 months was reported by 131 men. Of these, 32% reported anal sex without a condom. STIs were diagnosed in 41%. Factors associated with having sex without a condom were having a steady male partner, having a female partner and awareness of HIV status <1 month. Sexual risk behaviors and STIs were common among HIV-infected MSM in this study. This highlights the need for increased HIV prevention strategies for HIV-infected MSM.

HIV epidemic appraisals for assisting in the design of effective prevention programmes: shifting the paradigm back to basics

BACKGROUND

To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1) their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2) they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3) the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.

CONCLUSIONS

Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with which policy makers can design intervention programmes.

Consistent partnership formation: application to a sexually transmitted disease model

We apply a consistent sexual partnership formation model which hinges on the assumption that one gender's choices drives the process (male or female dominant model). The other gender's behavior is imputed. The model is fitted to UK sexual behavior data and applied to a simple incidence model of HSV-2. With a male dominant model (which assumes accurate male reports on numbers of partners) the modeled incidences of HSV-2 are 77% higher for men and 50% higher for women than with a female dominant model (which assumes accurate female reports). Although highly stylized, our simple incidence model sheds light on the inconsistent results one can obtain with misreported data on sexual activity and age preferences.

Male circumcision for HIV prevention: current evidence and implementation in sub-Saharan Africa

Heterosexual exposure accounts for most HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, and this mode, as a proportion of new infections, is escalating globally. The scientific evidence accumulated over more than 20 years shows that among the strategies advocated during this period for HIV prevention, male circumcision is one of, if not, the most efficacious epidemiologically, as well as cost-wise. Despite this, and recommendation of the procedure by global policy makers, national implementation has been slow. Additionally, some are not convinced of the protective effect of male circumcision and there are also reports, unsupported by evidence, that non-sex-related drivers play a major role in HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we provide a critical evaluation of the state of the current evidence for male circumcision in reducing HIV infection in light of established transmission drivers, provide an update on programmes now in place in this region, and explain why policies based on established scientific evidence should be prioritized. We conclude that the evidence supports the need to accelerate the implementation of medical male circumcision programmes for HIV prevention in generalized heterosexual epidemics, as well as in countering the growing heterosexual transmission in countries where HIV prevalence is presently low.

The potential impact of an HIV vaccine with limited protection on HIV incidence in Thailand: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

The RV144 trial on the ALVAC/AIDSVAX candidate HIV vaccine, carried out in Thailand, showed short-lived protection against infection.

METHODS

Using a deterministic compartmental model we explored the potential impact of this vaccine on heterosexual HIV transmission in Thailand. Both one-off vaccination strategies, as well as strategies with regular boosting, either annually or every two years, were explored. Both targeting the general adult population and prioritizing sex workers were modeled. The impact of risk compensation among high risk groups, as well as whether higher levels of safe sex in high risk groups could be an alternative to vaccination, was studied.

RESULTS

One-off vaccination campaigns had only transient effects, and boosting appears to be a key component of successful vaccination campaigns. Intensive vaccination campaigns may reduce HIV incidence by up to 75% after 10 years of vaccination. Targeting only sex workers has a smaller impact but has a more favorable cost-benefit ratio. Risk compensation has the potential of undoing much of the benefits of a vaccination program and may even increase incidence. In contrast, higher levels of safe sex among sex workers would provide a viable alternative to vaccinating this group.

DISCUSSION

The new vaccine holds promise for controlling HIV in Thailand and similar countries. In view of the short lived protection of the vaccine, regular boosting of immunity as well as avoidance of risk compensation are essential. Targeting sex workers would achieve the greatest reduction in incidence per vaccination and may be considered for expensive vaccines but its cost-effectiveness has to be compared to alternatives.

Estimates of the number of prevalent and incident human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in Canada, 2008

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the number of prevalent and incident HIV infections in Canada in 2008.

METHODS

We applied multiple methods to estimate national HIV prevalence and incidence in Canada, including the workbook method, two statistical modelling methods, and an iterative spreadsheet model.

RESULTS

The estimated number of people living with diagnosed or undiagnosed HIV infection (including AIDS) continues to rise, from an estimated 57,000 in 2005 to 65,000 in 2008. Nearly half (48%) of these HIV-infected persons were men who have sex with men (MSM) and 22% were women. An estimated 16,900 persons with prevalent infection (26% of total prevalent infections) were unaware of their HIV-infected status and this proportion varied from an estimated 19% of HIV-infected MSM, to 25% of HIV-infected people who inject drugs, and 35% of HIV-infected heterosexuals. An estimated 3,300 new infections occurred in Canada in 2008, which was about the same as the estimate of 3200 in 2005. Of those new infections, 26% were among women and 12.5% were of Aboriginal descent; in terms of exposure category, MSM continued to comprise the greatest proportion of new infections (44%) and heterosexuals who originated in countries where HIV is endemic comprised 16%.

CONCLUSION

HIV incidence in Canada is not decreasing. Aboriginal people and people from HIV-endemic countries continue to be over-represented in Canada's HIV epidemic. People unaware of their HIV infection are a priority for being tested and diagnosed to enable them to take advantage of care services and receive counselling to prevent further spread of HIV.