Resilience to climate change in coastal marine ecosystems

Anthropogenic stressors and the marine environment: From sources and impacts to solutions and mitigation

Human-released contaminants are often poorly understood wholistically in marine ecosystems. This review examines the sources, pathways, impacts on marine animals, and mitigation strategies of five pollutants (plastics, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, bisphenol compounds, ethynylestradiol, and petroleum hydrocarbons). Both abiotic and biotic mechanisms contribute to all five contaminants' movement. These pollutants cause short- and long-term effects on many biological processes genetically, molecularly, neurologically, physiologically, reproductively, and developmentally. We explore the extension of adverse outcome pathways to ecosystem effects by considering known inter-generational and trophic relations resulting in large-scale direct and indirect impacts. In doing so, we develop an understanding of their roles as environmental stressors in marine environments for targeted mitigation and future work. Ecosystems are interconnected and so international collaboration, standards, measures preceding mass production, and citizen involvement are required to protect and conserve marine life.

Long-term declines in chlorophyll a and variable phenology revealed by a 60-year estuarine plankton time series

Long-term ecological time series provide a unique perspective on the emergent properties of ecosystems. In aquatic systems, phytoplankton form the base of the food web and their biomass, measured as the concentration of the photosynthetic pigment chlorophyll a (chl a), is an indicator of ecosystem quality. We analyzed temporal trends in chl a from the Long-Term Plankton Time Series in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA, a temperate estuary experiencing long-term warming and changing anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Dynamic linear models were used to impute and model environmental variables (1959 to 2019) and chl a concentrations (1968 to 2019). A long-term chl a decrease was observed with an average decline in the cumulative annual chl a concentration of 49% and a marked decline of 57% in winter-spring bloom magnitude. The long-term decline in chl a concentration was directly and indirectly associated with multiple environmental factors that are impacted by climate change (e.g., warming temperatures, water column stratification, reduced nutrient concentrations) indicating the importance of accounting for regional climate change effects in ecosystem-based management. Analysis of seasonal phenology revealed that the winter-spring bloom occurred earlier, at a rate of 4.9 ± 2.8 d decade-1. Finally, the high degree of temporal variation in phytoplankton biomass observed in Narragansett Bay appears common among estuaries, coasts, and open oceans. The commonality among these marine ecosystems highlights the need to maintain a robust set of phytoplankton time series in the coming decades to improve signal-to-noise ratios and identify trends in these highly variable environments.

We need collaboration and co-creation to address challenges facing coastal communities

Coastal communities across the globe are faced with multifaceted, interconnected challenges with competing environmental, social and economic needs. In rural coastal communities of the Global South, the challenges presented by climate change are complicated by those related to development, resource management and sustainable livelihoods. The rapid growth of such coastal communities exacerbates these challenges and reinforces the need for effective and sustainable governance. Such governance requires a move from top-down approaches to human-centred approaches. Human-centred coastal governance engages multiple stakeholders and combines multidisciplinary knowledge, participatory approaches, co-creation of solutions and multi-institutional partnerships. Here we present case studies from coastal communities in Vanuatu, Ghana and Bangladesh. These illustrate several of the complex challenges facing such communities and the collaborative and empowering strategies that have been used to meet them. Based on these case studies, we present a transdisciplinary framework to inform the co-creation of coastal management strategies that meet interconnected human and environmental needs.

Shifting the paradigm: The role of introduced plants in the resiliency of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Current ecological communities are in a constant state of flux from climate change and from species introductions. Recent discussion has focused on the positive roles introduced species can play in ecological communities and on the importance of conserving resilient ecosystems, but not how these two ideas intersect. There has been insufficient work to define the attributes needed to support ecosystem resilience to climate change in modern communities. Here, I argue that non-invasive, introduced plant species could play an important role in supporting the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Using examples from multiple taxonomic groups and ecosystems, I discuss how introduced plants can contribute to ecosystem resilience via their roles in plant and insect communities, as well as their associated ecosystem functions. I highlight the current and potential contributions of introduced plants and where there are critical knowledge gaps. Determining when and how introduced plants are contributing to the resilience of ecosystems to climate change will contribute to effective conservation strategies.

Towards an integrated view on microbial CH4, N2O and N2 cycles in brackish coastal marsh soils: A comparative analysis of two sites

Coastal ecosystems, facing threats from global change and human activities like excessive nutrients, undergo alterations impacting their function and appearance. This study explores the intertwined microbial cycles of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), encompassing methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and nitrogen gas (N2) fluxes, to determine nutrient transformation processes between the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in the coastal ecosystems with brackish water. Water salinity negatively impacted denitrification, bacterial nitrification, N fixation, and n-DAMO processes, but did not significantly affect archaeal nitrification, COMAMMOX, DNRA, and ANAMMOX processes in the N cycle. Plant species age and biomass influenced CH4 and N2O emissions. The highest CH4 emissions were from old Spartina and mixed Spartina and Scirpus sites, while Phragmites sites emitted the most N2O. Nitrification and incomplete denitrification mainly governed N2O emissions depending on the environmental conditions and plants. The higher genetic potential of ANAMMOX reduced excessive N by converting it to N2 in the sites with higher average temperatures. The presence of plants led to a decrease in the N fixers' abundance. Plant biomass negatively affected methanogenetic mcrA genes. Microbes involved in n-DAMO processes helped mitigate CH4 emissions. Over 93 % of the total climate forcing came from CH4 emissions, except for the Chinese bare site where the climate forcing was negative, and for Phragmites sites, where almost 60 % of the climate forcing came from N2O emissions. Our findings indicate that nutrient cycles, CH4, and N2O fluxes in soils are context-dependent and influenced by environmental factors and vegetation. This underscores the need for empirical analysis of both C and N cycles at various levels (soil-plant-atmosphere) to understand how habitats or plants affect nutrient cycles and greenhouse gas emissions.

Diversity begets stability: Sublinear growth and competitive coexistence across ecosystems

The worldwide loss of species diversity brings urgency to understanding how diverse ecosystems maintain stability. Whereas early ecological ideas and classic observations suggested that stability increases with diversity, ecological theory makes the opposite prediction, leading to the long-standing "diversity-stability debate." Here, we show that this puzzle can be resolved if growth scales as a sublinear power law with biomass (exponent <1), exhibiting a form of population self-regulation analogous to models of individual ontogeny. We show that competitive interactions among populations with sublinear growth do not lead to exclusion, as occurs with logistic growth, but instead promote stability at higher diversity. Our model realigns theory with classic observations and predicts large-scale macroecological patterns. However, it makes an unsettling prediction: Biodiversity loss may accelerate the destabilization of ecosystems.

Allochthonous marsh subsidies enhances food web productivity in an estuary and its surrounding ecosystem mosaic

Terrestrial organic matter is believed to play an important role in promoting resilient estuarine food webs, but the inherent interconnectivity of estuarine systems often obscures the origins and importance of these terrestrial inputs. To determine the relative contributions of terrestrial (allochthonous) and aquatic (autochthonous) organic matter to the estuarine food web, we analyzed carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur stable isotopes from multiple trophic levels, environmental strata, and habitats throughout the estuarine habitat mosaic. We used a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model (SIMM) to parse out relationships among primary producers, invertebrates, and a pelagic and demersal fish species (juvenile Chinook salmon and sculpin, respectively). The study was carried out in the Nisqually River Delta (NRD), Washington, USA, a recently-restored, macrotidal estuary with a diverse habitat mosaic. Plant groupings of macroalgae, eelgrass, and tidal marsh plants served as the primary base components of the NRD food web. About 90% of demersal sculpin diets were comprised of benthic and pelagic crustaceans that were fed by autochthonous organic matter contributions from aquatic vegetation. Juvenile salmon, on the other hand, derived their energy from a mix of terrestrial, pelagic, and benthic prey, including insects, dipterans, and crustaceans. Consequently, allochthonous terrestrial contributions of organic matter were much greater for salmon, ranging between 26 and 43%. These findings demonstrate how connectivity among estuarine habitat types and environmental strata facilitates organic matter subsidies. This suggests that management actions that improve or restore lateral habitat connectivity as well as terrestrial-aquatic linkages may enhance allochthonous subsidies, promoting increased prey resources and ecosystem benefits in estuaries.

How resilience is framed matters for governance of coastal social-ecological systems

Effective governance of social-ecological systems (SES) is an enduring challenge, especially in coastal environments where accelerating impacts of climate change are increasing pressure on already stressed systems. While resilience is often proposed as a suitable framing to re-orient governance and management, the literature includes many different, and sometimes conflicting, definitions and ideas that influence how the concept is applied, especially in coastal environments. This study combines discourse analysis of the coastal governance literature and key informant interviews in Tasmania, Australia, demonstrating inconsistencies and confusion in the way that resilience is framed in coastal governance research and practice. We find that resilience is most often framed as (1) a rate of recovery from disturbance or (2) the process of acting in response to, or anticipation of, a disturbance. A third framing considers resilience as an emergent property of SESs. This framing, social-ecological resilience, accounts for multiple configurations of SES, which necessitates adaptation and transformation strategies to address changes across temporal and spatial scales. Coastal managers recognised the value of this third framing for governing coastal SESs, yet the confusion and inconsistency in the literature was also evident in how they understood and applied resilience in practice. Expanding the use of social-ecological resilience is essential for more effective coastal governance, given the dynamics of coastal SESs and the intensity of social, economic, and environmental drivers of change these systems face. However, this requires addressing the unclear, confused, and superficial use of resilience-oriented concepts in research and policy discourse.

Habitat sensitivity in the West African coastal area: inferences and implications for regional adaptations to climate change and ocean acidification

This study focuses on assessing coastal vulnerability and habitat sensitivity along the West African coast by delineating hotspots based on surface temperature, pH, chlorophyll-a, particulate organic carbon, and carbonate concentrations between 2018 and 2023 depending on data availability. Initial exploration of these variables revealed two distinct focal points i.e., the Togo-Nigerian coastal stretch and the stretch from Sierra Leone to Mauritania. Lower pH trends (acidification) in surface waters were observed off the West African coast, particularly in areas around the south-south Niger Delta in Nigeria and the coastal regions of Guinea and Guinea Bissau. Sea surface temperature analysis revealed highest temperatures (27-30°C) within Nigeria to Guinea coastal stretch, intermediate temperatures (24-27°C) within the Guinea Bissau and Senegal coastal stretch, and the lowest temperatures off the coast of Mauritania. Furthermore, correlation analysis between sea surface temperature and calcite concentration in the Mauritania-Senegal hotspot, as well as between overland runoff and particulate organic carbon in the Togo-Nigeria hotspot, revealed strong positive associations (r>0.60) and considerable predictive variability (R2 ≈ 0.40). From the habitat sensitivity analysis, certain regions, including Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone, exhibited high sensitivity due to environmental challenges and strong human dependence on coastal resources. Conversely, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Togo displayed lower sensitivity, influenced by geographical-related factors (e.g. coastal layout, topography, etc.) and current levels of economic development (relatively lower industrialization levels). Regional pH variations in West African coastal waters have profound implications for ecosystems, fisheries, and communities. Addressing these challenges requires collaborative regional policies to safeguard shared marine resources. These findings underscore the link between ecosystem health, socioeconomics, and the need for integrated coastal management and ongoing research to support effective conservation.

Ocean connectivity and habitat characteristics predict population genetic structure of seagrass in an extreme tropical setting

Understanding patterns of gene flow and processes driving genetic differentiation is important for a broad range of conservation practices. In marine organisms, genetic differentiation among populations is influenced by a range of spatial, oceanographic, and environmental factors that are attributed to the seascape. The relative influences of these factors may vary in different locations and can be measured using seascape genetic approaches. Here, we applied a seascape genetic approach to populations of the seagrass, Thalassia hemprichii, at a fine spatial scale (~80 km) in the Kimberley coast, western Australia, a complex seascape with strong, multidirectional currents greatly influenced by extreme tidal ranges (up to 11 m, the world's largest tropical tides). We incorporated genetic data from a panel of 16 microsatellite markers, overwater distance, oceanographic data derived from predicted passive dispersal on a 2 km-resolution hydrodynamic model, and habitat characteristics from each meadow sampled. We detected significant spatial genetic structure and asymmetric gene flow, in which meadows 12-14 km apart were less connected than ones 30-50 km apart. This pattern was explained by oceanographic connectivity and differences in habitat characteristics, suggesting a combined scenario of dispersal limitation and facilitation by ocean current with local adaptation. Our findings add to the growing evidence for the key role of seascape attributes in driving spatial patterns of gene flow. Despite the potential for long-distance dispersal, there was significant genetic structuring over small spatial scales implicating dispersal and recruitment bottlenecks and highlighting the importance of implementing local-scale conservation and management measures.

Community theory: Testing environmental stress models

Intensifying climate change and an increasing need for understanding its impacts on ecological communities places new emphasis on testing environmental stress models (ESMs). Using a prior literature search plus references from a more recent search, I evaluated empirical support for ESMs, focusing on whether consumer pressure on prey decreased (consumer stress model; CSM) or increased (prey stress model; PSM) with increasing environmental stress. Applying the criterion that testing ESMs requires conducting research at multiple sites along environmental stress gradients, the analysis found that CSMs were most frequent, with 'No Effect' and PSMs occurring at low but similar frequencies. This result contrasts to a prior survey in which 'No Effect' studies were most frequent, thus suggesting that consumers are generally more suppressed by stress than prey. Thus, increased climate change-induced environmental stress seems likely to reduce, not increase impacts of consumers on prey more often than the reverse.

Energetic connectivity of diverse elasmobranch populations - implications for ecological resilience

Understanding the factors shaping patterns of ecological resilience is critical for mitigating the loss of global biodiversity. Throughout aquatic environments, highly mobile predators are thought to serve as important vectors of energy between ecosystems thereby promoting stability and resilience. However, the role these predators play in connecting food webs and promoting energy flow remains poorly understood in most contexts. Using carbon and nitrogen isotopes, we quantified the use of several prey resource pools (small oceanic forage, large oceanics, coral reef, and seagrass) by 17 species of elasmobranch fishes (n = 351 individuals) in The Bahamas to determine their functional diversity and roles as ecosystem links. We observed remarkable functional diversity across species and identified four major groups responsible for connecting discrete regions of the seascape. Elasmobranchs were responsible for promoting energetic connectivity between neritic, oceanic and deep-sea ecosystems. Our findings illustrate how mobile predators promote ecosystem connectivity, underscoring their functional significance and role in supporting ecological resilience. More broadly, strong predator conservation efforts in developing island nations, such as The Bahamas, are likely to yield ecological benefits that enhance the resilience of marine ecosystems to combat imminent threats such as habitat degradation and climate change.

A balancing act: Principles, criteria and indicator framework to operationalize social-ecological resilience of forests

Against a background of intensifying climate-induced disturbances, the need to enhance the resilience of forests and forest management is gaining urgency. In forest management, multiple trade-offs exist between different demands as well as across and within temporal and spatial scales. However, methods to assess resilience that consider these trade-offs are presently lacking. Here we propose a hierarchical framework of principles, criteria, and indicators to assess the resilience of a social-ecological system by focusing on the mechanisms behind resilience. This hierarchical framework balances trade-offs between mechanisms, different parts of the social-ecological system, ecosystem services, and spatial as well as temporal scales. The framework was developed to be used in a participatory manner in forest management planning. It accounts for the major parts of the forest-related social-ecological system and considers the multiple trade-offs involved. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by applying it to a landscape dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Central Europe, managed for three different management goals. The framework highlights how forest resilience varies with the pursued management goals and related management strategies. The framework is flexible and can be applied to various forest management contexts as part of a participatory process with stakeholders. It thus is an important step towards operationalizing social-ecological resilience in forest management systems.

Interannual changes in winter-spring zooplankton estuarine community forced by hydroclimatic variability - With special reference to bioindicator species Eurytemora americana

Climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures impact the structure and dynamics of pelagic ecosystems and copepods are good indicators of such changes. This investigation aims to explore the interannual pattern of the mesozooplankton community, in relation to environmental variables in the Bahía Blanca Estuary during winter-spring from last two decades focusing on the dominant species Eurytemora americana. Main changes recorded include increased temperature, alteration of the nutrient balance, a decrease in chlorophyll-a, modifications in the abundance-structure of the phytoplankton assemblages, and changes in the abundance-structure of the mesozooplankton community. A significant decrease was observed in species richness of the mesozooplankton over time. Alterations in abundance and reproductive traits of E. americana, were also found. The population of E. americana dropped from mean relative abundance of 47% in first years to 20-12% in lasts one, accompanied with an increase of copepod species characterized by higher trophic plasticity in eutrophic conditions, like Acartia tonsa and Euterpina acutifrons.

Enzyme adaptation to habitat thermal legacy shapes the thermal plasticity of marine microbiomes

Microbial communities respond to temperature with physiological adaptation and compositional turnover. Whether thermal selection of enzymes explains marine microbiome plasticity in response to temperature remains unresolved. By quantifying the thermal behaviour of seven functionally-independent enzyme classes (esterase, extradiol dioxygenase, phosphatase, beta-galactosidase, nuclease, transaminase, and aldo-keto reductase) in native proteomes of marine sediment microbiomes from the Irish Sea to the southern Red Sea, we record a significant effect of the mean annual temperature (MAT) on enzyme response in all cases. Activity and stability profiles of 228 esterases and 5 extradiol dioxygenases from sediment and seawater across 70 locations worldwide validate this thermal pattern. Modelling the esterase phase transition temperature as a measure of structural flexibility confirms the observed relationship with MAT. Furthermore, when considering temperature variability in sites with non-significantly different MATs, the broadest range of enzyme thermal behaviour and the highest growth plasticity of the enriched heterotrophic bacteria occur in samples with the widest annual thermal variability. These results indicate that temperature-driven enzyme selection shapes microbiome thermal plasticity and that thermal variability finely tunes such processes and should be considered alongside MAT in forecasting microbial community thermal response.

Marine protected areas, marine heatwaves, and the resilience of nearshore fish communities

Anthropogenic stressors from climate change can affect individual species, community structure, and ecosystem function. Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are intense thermal anomalies where water temperature is significantly elevated for five or more days. Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and severity of MHWs in the coming decades. While there is evidence that marine protected areas (MPAs) may be able to buffer individual species from climate impacts, there is not sufficient evidence to support the idea that MPAs can mitigate large-scale changes in marine communities in response to MHWs. California experienced an intense MHW and subsequent El Niño Southern Oscillation event from 2014 to 2016. We sought to examine changes in rocky reef fish communities at four MPAs and associated reference sites in relation to the MHW. We observed a decline in taxonomic diversity and a profound shift in trophic diversity inside and outside MPAs following the MHW. However, MPAs seemed to dampen the loss of trophic diversity and in the four years following the MHW, taxonomic diversity recovered 75% faster in the MPAs compared to reference sites. Our results suggest that MPAs may contribute to long-term resilience of nearshore fish communities through both resistance to change and recovery from warming events.

Standing Crop, Turnover, and Production Dynamics of Macrocystis pyrifera and Understory Species Hedophyllum nigripes and Neoagarum fimbriatum in High Latitude Giant Kelp Forests

Production rates reported for canopy-forming kelps have highlighted the potential contributions of these foundational macroalgal species to carbon cycling and sequestration on a globally relevant scale. Yet, the production dynamics of many kelp species remain poorly resolved. For example, productivity estimates for the widely distributed giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera are based on a few studies from the center of this species' range. To address this geospatial bias, we surveyed giant kelp beds in their high latitude fringe habitat in southeast Alaska to quantify foliar standing crop, growth and loss rates, and productivity of M. pyrifera and co-occurring understory kelps Hedophyllum nigripes and Neoagarum fimbriatum. We found that giant kelp beds at the poleward edge of their range produce ~150 g C · m-2 · year-1 from a standing biomass that turns over an estimated 2.1 times per year, substantially lower rates than have been observed at lower latitudes. Although the productivity of high latitude M. pyrifera dwarfs production by associated understory kelps in both winter and summer seasons, phenological differences in growth and relative carbon and nitrogen content among the three kelp species suggests their complementary value as nutritional resources to consumers. This work represents the highest latitude consideration of M. pyrifera forest production to date, providing a valuable quantification of kelp carbon cycling in this highly seasonal environment.

Spatial and seasonal variation in macrozoobenthic density, biomass and community composition in a major tropical intertidal area, the Bijagós Archipelago, West-Africa

The coastal intertidal ecosystem of the Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau, one of the largest and most important in West Africa, sustains a considerable proportion of the migratory shorebird populations of the East Atlantic Flyway and operates as a nursery area for benthic fish in the region. The macrozoobenthos in these mudflats constitute the main food source for both groups so that spatial and temporal variation in their abundance and community composition is likely to influence the abundance and distribution of fish and birds. In this study we described the spatial and temporal dynamics in the density, biomass, and community composition of macrozoobenthos across six intertidal flats in three islands of the Bijagós Archipelago. Overall, the Bijagós Archipelago was characterised by a highly species-rich macrozoobenthic community, with ca. 88 taxa identified across all sites, reaching a mean density of 1871 ± 58.3 ind.m-2 (mean ± SE) and mean biomass of 5.65 ± 0.41 g of AFDM.m-2 (ash-free dry mass per m2), values much lower than what was described for nearby intertidal areas, namely the Band d'Arguin, Mauritania. Density and biomass of major macrozoobenthos classes (Bivalvia, Polychaeta, Malacostraca and Gastropoda) differed across sites and months, displaying an overall increase in density towards the final months of the dry season (March and April). Similarly, community composition also differed significantly between sites and throughout the season. The site with most distinct community composition (Adonga) supported low diversity and high abundance of a few bivalve species, whilst other two sites that hosted the most diverse communities, were also the most similar between them (Anrumai and Abu). These spatial and temporal patterns constitute an important baseline to improve knowledge of this intertidal ecosystem and will contribute towards a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of their consumers.

Cascading effects of climate change on recreational marine flats fishes and fisheries

Tropical and subtropical coastal flats are shallow regions of the marine environment at the intersection of land and sea. These regions provide myriad ecological goods and services, including recreational fisheries focused on flats-inhabiting fishes such as bonefish, tarpon, and permit. The cascading effects of climate change have the potential to negatively impact coastal flats around the globe and to reduce their ecological and economic value. In this paper, we consider how the combined effects of climate change, including extremes in temperature and precipitation regimes, sea level rise, and changes in nutrient dynamics, are causing rapid and potentially permanent changes to the structure and function of tropical and subtropical flats ecosystems. We then apply the available science on recreationally targeted fishes to reveal how these changes can cascade through layers of biological organization-from individuals, to populations, to communities-and ultimately impact the coastal systems that depend on them. We identify critical gaps in knowledge related to the extent and severity of these effects, and how such gaps influence the effectiveness of conservation, management, policy, and grassroots stewardship efforts.

Persistence of phenotypic responses to short-term heat stress in the tabletop coral Acropora hyacinthus

Widespread mapping of coral thermal resilience is essential for developing effective management strategies and requires replicable and rapid multi-location assays of heat resistance and recovery. One- or two-day short-term heat stress experiments have been previously employed to assess heat resistance, followed by single assays of bleaching condition. We tested the reliability of short-term heat stress resistance, and linked resistance and recovery assays, by monitoring the phenotypic response of fragments from 101 Acropora hyacinthus colonies located in Palau (Micronesia) to short-term heat stress. Following short-term heat stress, bleaching and mortality were recorded after 16 hours, daily for seven days, and after one and two months of recovery. To follow corals over time, we utilized a qualitative, non-destructive visual bleaching score metric that correlated with standard symbiont retention assays. The bleaching state of coral fragments 16 hours post-heat stress was highly indicative of their state over the next 7 days, suggesting that symbiont population sizes within corals may quickly stabilize post-heat stress. Bleaching 16 hours post-heat stress predicted likelihood of mortality over the subsequent 3–5 days, after which there was little additional mortality. Together, bleaching and mortality suggested that rapid assays of the phenotypic response following short-term heat stress were good metrics of the total heat treatment effect. Additionally, our data confirm geographic patterns of intraspecific variation in Palau and show that bleaching severity among colonies was highly correlated with mortality over the first week post-stress. We found high survival (98%) and visible recovery (100%) two months after heat stress among coral fragments that survived the first week post-stress. These findings help simplify rapid, widespread surveys of heat sensitivity in Acropora hyacinthus by showing that standardized short-term experiments can be confidently assayed after 16 hours, and that bleaching sensitivity may be linked to subsequent survival using experimental assessments.

Responses to simultaneous anthropogenic and biological stressors were mixed in an experimental saltmarsh ecosystem

Coastal ecosystems are essential for absorbing and bouncing back from the impacts of climate change, yet accelerating climate change is causing anthropogenically-derived stressors in these ecosystems to grow. The effects of stressors are more difficult to foresee when they act simultaneously, however, predicting these effects is critical for understanding ecological change. Spartina alterniflora (Spartina), a foundational saltmarsh plant key to coastal resilience, is subject to biological stress such as herbivory, as well as anthropogenic stress such as chemical pollution. Using saltmarsh mesocosms as a model system in a fully factorial experiment, we tested whether the effects of herbivory and two chemicals (oil and dispersant) were mediated or magnified in combination. Spartina responded to stressors asynchronously; ecophysiology responded negatively to oil and herbivores in the first 2-3 weeks of the experiment, whereas biomass responded negatively to oil and herbivores cumulatively throughout the experiment. We generally found mixed multi-stressor effects, with slightly more antagonistic effects compared to either synergistic or additive effects, despite significant reductions in Spartina biomass and growth from both chemical and herbivore treatments. We also observed an indirect positive effect of oil on Spartina, via a direct negative effect on insect herbivores. Our findings suggest that multi-stressor effects in our model system, 1) are mixed but can be antagonistic more often than expected, a finding contrary to previous assumptions of primarily synergistic effects, 2) can vary in duration, 3) can be difficult to discern a priori, and 4) can lead to ecological surprises through indirect effects with implications for coastal resilience. This leads us to conclude that understanding the simultaneous effects of multiple stressors is critical for predicting foundation-species persistence, discerning ecosystem resilience, and managing and mitigating impacts on ecosystem services.

Resilient biotic response to long-term climate change in the Adriatic Sea

Preserving adaptive capacities of coastal ecosystems, which are currently facing the ongoing climate warming and a multitude of other anthropogenic impacts, requires an understanding of long-term biotic dynamics in the context of major environmental shifts prior to human disturbances. We quantified responses of nearshore mollusk assemblages to long-term climate and sea-level changes using 223 samples (~71,300 specimens) retrieved from latest Quaternary sediment cores of the Adriatic coastal systems. These cores provide a rare chance to study coastal systems that existed during glacial lowstands. The fossil mollusk record indicates that nearshore assemblages of the penultimate interglacial (Late Pleistocene) shifted in their faunal composition during the subsequent ice age, and then reassembled again with the return of interglacial climate in the Holocene. These shifts point to a climate-driven habitat filtering modulated by dispersal processes. The resilient, rather than persistent or stochastic, response of the mollusk assemblages to long-term environmental changes over at least 125 thousand years highlights the historically unprecedented nature of the ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., pollution, eutrophication, bottom trawling, and invasive species) that are currently shifting coastal regions into novel system states far outside the range of natural variability archived in the fossil record.

Post-settlement demographics of reef building corals suggest prolonged recruitment bottlenecks

For many organisms, early life stages experience significantly higher rates of mortality relative to adults. However, tracking early life stage individuals through time in natural settings is difficult, limiting our understanding of the duration of these ‘mortality bottlenecks’, and the time required for survivorship to match that of adults. Here, we track a cohort of juvenile corals (1–5 cm maximum diameter) from 12 taxa at a remote atoll in the Central Pacific from 2013 to 2017 and describe patterns of annual survivorship. Of the 537 juveniles initially detected, 219 (41%) were alive 4 years later, 163 (30%) died via complete loss of live tissue from the skeleton, and the remaining 155 (29%) died via dislodgement. The differing mortality patterns suggest that habitat characteristics, as well as species-specific features, may influence early life stage survival. Across most taxa, survival fit a logistic model, reaching > 90% annual survival within 4 years. These data suggest that mortality bottlenecks characteristic of ‘recruitment’ extend up to 5 years after individuals can be visually detected. Ultimately, replenishment of adult coral populations via sexual reproduction is needed to maintain both coral cover and genetic diversity. This study provides key insights into the dynamics and time scales that characterize these critical early life stages.

High gene flow in the silverlip pearl oyster Pinctada maxima between inshore and offshore sites near Eighty Mile Beach in Western Australia

An understanding of stock recruitment dynamics in fisheries is fundamental to successful management. Pinctada maxima is a bivalve mollusc widely distributed throughout the Indo-Pacific and is the main species targeted for cultured pearl and pearl shell production in Australia. Pearl production in Australia relies heavily on wild-caught individuals, the majority of which come from the Eighty Mile Beach region near Broome in Western Australia. In this study, we used a genotyping by sequencing approach to explore fine-scale patterns of genetic connectivity among inshore shallow and offshore deep populations of P. maxima near Eighty Mile Beach. Our results revealed high-levels of gene flow among inshore and offshore sites and no differences in genetic diversity between depths. Global estimates of genetic differentiation were low (F ST = 0.006) but significantly different from zero, and pairwise estimates of genetic differentiation among sites were significant in only 3% of comparisons. Moreover, Bayesian clustering detected no separation of inshore and offshore sample sites, and instead showed all samples to be admixed among sites, locations and depths. Despite an absence of any clear spatial clustering among sites, we identified a significant pattern of isolation by distance. In a dynamic environment like Eighty Mile Beach, genetic structure can change from year-to-year and successive dispersal and recruitment events over generations likely act to homogenize the population. Although we cannot rule out the null hypothesis of panmixia, our data indicate high levels of dispersal and connectivity among inshore and offshore fishing grounds.

Distinct realized physiologies in green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) populations from barren and kelp habitats

Overgrazing of habitat-forming kelps by sea urchins is reshaping reef seascapes in many temperate regions. Loss of kelp, in particular as a food source, may alter individual consumer physiology, which in turn may impair their ability to respond to climate warming. Here, we measured the temperature dependence of absolute and mass-independent oxygen consumption ([Formula: see text]) using two different exposure protocols (acute exposure and temperature “ramping”), as proxies of realized physiology, between green sea urchin ( Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) populations from neighbouring barren and kelp habitats. Sea urchins from kelp habitats consumed 8%–78% more oxygen than sea urchins from barrens (across the range of temperatures tested (4–32 °C)) and had higher maximum [Formula: see text] values (by 26%). This was in part because kelp urchins typically had greater body masses. However, higher mass-independent [Formula: see text] values of kelp urchins suggest metabolic plasticity in response to habitat per se. In addition, the [Formula: see text] of sea urchins from kelp habitats was less sensitive to increases in temperature. We conclude that sea urchins from barren and kelp habitats of comparable body mass represent different energetic units. This highlights that habitat type can drive population-level variation that may shape urchins activities and environmental impact. Such variation should be integrated into energy-based models.

An evaluation of the marine environmental resilience to the north of Qeshm Island

There is always an adamant need to comprehend and draw the complex challenges of sustainability in order to help organize studies, due to the increasing human-related pressures on coastal zones. Hence, by formulating such a comprehensive framework, it could be possible to anticipate changes and support managerial decisions, as well as the degree of resilience of the region's environment. One of the approaches utilized in littoral or coastal zones is the conceptual framework of drivers, pressure, status, impact, and responses (DPSIR)..Qeshm Island, the largest island in the Persian Gulf, is accounted for being the most vital and strategic areas of the mentioned region. In recent decades, Qeshm has become one of the major cultural, natural, geological, and tourism hubs of the country due to its unique regional characteristics, along with its biodiversity and environmental sensitivity. Thereby, in the present research, a combined approach shall be followed to explore the resilience of the marine environment on the northern coast of Qeshm Island by taking advantage of the socioeconomic criterion. In this respect, the conceptual framework of the DPSIR model is utilized in combination with the structural equation model (SEM-PLS) (or partial least squares), which is one of the nonexperimental techniques, to quantify the results in the best manner possible. On the basis of the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM), the regional economic index bearing the weights of 0.62, 0.62, and 0.5, along with an institutional-managerial and biological index, respectively, denotes a two-way positive correlation, whereas this factor has a two-way, but adverse correlation, relationship with a weight of 0.65 in terms of the sociocultural index. Similarly, there is also a one-way and negative relationship, as to the economic index, with a weight of 0.69 which is in relevance with the physio-chemical index.

Biogeochemical extremes and compound events in the ocean

The ocean is warming, losing oxygen and being acidified, primarily as a result of anthropogenic carbon emissions. With ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation projected to increase for decades, extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, will intensify, occur more often, persist for longer periods of time and extend over larger regions. Nevertheless, our understanding of oceanic extreme events that are associated with warming, low oxygen concentrations or high acidity, as well as their impacts on marine ecosystems, remains limited. Compound events-that is, multiple extreme events that occur simultaneously or in close sequence-are of particular concern, as their individual effects may interact synergistically. Here we assess patterns and trends in open ocean extremes based on the existing literature as well as global and regional model simulations. Furthermore, we discuss the potential impacts of individual and compound extremes on marine organisms and ecosystems. We propose a pathway to improve the understanding of extreme events and the capacity of marine life to respond to them. The conditions exhibited by present extreme events may be a harbinger of what may become normal in the future. As a consequence, pursuing this research effort may also help us to better understand the responses of marine organisms and ecosystems to future climate change.

Diet mediates thermal performance traits: implications for marine ectotherms

Thermal acclimation is a key process enabling ectotherms to cope with temperature change. To undergo a successful acclimation response, ectotherms require energy and nutritional building blocks obtained from their diet. However, diet is often overlooked as a factor that can alter acclimation responses. Using a temperate omnivorous fish, opaleye (Girella nigricans), as a model system, we tested the hypotheses that (1) diet can impact the magnitude of thermal acclimation responses and (2) traits vary in their sensitivity to both temperature acclimation and diet. We fed opaleye a simple omnivorous diet (ad libitum Artemia sp. and Ulva sp.) or a carnivorous diet (ad libitum Artemia sp.) at two ecologically relevant temperatures (12 and 20°C) and measured a suite of whole-animal (growth, sprint speed, metabolism), organ (cardiac thermal tolerance) and cellular-level traits (oxidative stress, glycolytic capacity). When opaleye were offered two diet options compared with one, they had reduced cardiovascular thermal performance and higher standard metabolic rate under conditions representative of the maximal seasonal temperature the population experiences (20°C). Further, sprint speed and absolute aerobic scope were insensitive to diet and temperature, while growth was highly sensitive to temperature but not diet, and standard metabolic rate and maximum heart rate were sensitive to both diet and temperature. Our results reveal that diet influences thermal performance in trait-specific ways, which could create diet trade-offs for generalist ectotherms living in thermally variable environments. Ectotherms that alter their diet may be able to regulate their performance at different environmental temperatures.

Assessing social-ecological vulnerability of coastal systems to fishing and tourism

Detecting areas with high social-ecological vulnerability (SEV) is essential to better inform management interventions for building resilience in coastal systems. The SEV framework, developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is a robust method to identify SEV of tropical coastal systems to climate change. Yet, the application of this framework to temperate regions and other drivers of change remains underexplored. This study operationalizes the SEV framework to assess the social-ecological implications of fishing and tourism in temperate coastal systems. We spatially represented the SEV of coastal systems and identified the social and ecological vulnerability dimensions underpinning this SEV. Our results demonstrate that different dimensions contribute differently to the SEV, suggesting the need for distinctive management intervention to reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems. Our findings also highlight that livelihood diversification and the protection of marine areas may be plausible strategies to build resilience in temperate coastal systems that face fishing and tourism pressures. With this study, we hope to encourage the application of the SEV framework to other drivers of change for building more resilient coastal systems.

Operationalising coastal resilience to flood and erosion hazard: A demonstration for England

Resilience is widely seen as an important attribute of coastal systems and, as a concept, is increasingly prominent in policy documents. However, there are conflicting ideas on what constitutes resilience and its operationalisation as an overarching principle of coastal management remains limited. In this paper, we show how resilience to coastal flood and erosion hazard could be measured and applied within policy processes, using England as a case study. We define resilience pragmatically, integrating what is presently a disparate set of policy objectives for coastal areas. Our definition uses the concepts of resistance, recovery and adaptation, to consider how the economic, social and environmental dimensions of coastal systems respond to change. We develop a set of composite indicators for each dimension, grounded empirically with reference to national geospatial datasets. A prototype Coastal Resilience Model (CRM) has been developed, which combines the dimensions and generates a quantitative resilience index. We apply it to England's coastal hazard zone, capturing a range of different stakeholder perspectives using relative indicator weightings. The illustrative results demonstrate the practicality of formalising and quantifying resilience. To re-focus national policy around the stated desire of enhancing resilience to coastal flooding and erosion would require firm commitment from government to monitor progress towards resilience, requiring extension of the present risk-based approach, and a consensus methodology in which multiple (and sometimes conflicting) stakeholder values are explicitly considered. Such a transition may also challenge existing governance arrangements at national and local levels, requiring incentives for coastal managers to engage with and apply this new approach, more departmental integration and inter-agency cooperation. The proposed Coastal Resilience Model, with the tools to support planning and measure progress, has the potential to help enable this transition.

Genetic structure of Turbinaria peltata in the northern South China Sea suggest insufficient genetic adaptability of relatively high-latitude scleractinian corals to environment stress

With the rapid degradation of coral reefs due to global warming and anthropogenic impacts, relatively high-latitude areas, such as the northern South China Sea (SCS), are likely to become refuges for tropical coral species. Here we investigated the genetic features and adaptability of one dominant scleractinian coral species, Turbinaria peltata, in the northern SCS. A total of 81 samples from 5 sites were studied to explore potential mechanisms of adaptability to environmental stress as a result of climate change. Ten microsatellite markers developed in this study, one nuclear gene (internal transcribed spacer, ITS), and one mitochondrial gene (mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene, mtDNA COI) were used. Our results indicated that the genetic diversity of T. peltata in the northern SCS is low (A_r = 1.403-2.011, H_o = 0.105-0.248, H_e = 0.187-0.421) with the lowest in Dongfang population (DF) (A_r = 1.403, H_o = 0.22, H_e = 0.187). These results indicate that T. peltata has insufficient genetic adaptability and may unable to handle increasingly complex global changes. A significantly moderate genetic differentiation was observed among T. peltata populations (Φ_ST = 0.167), in addition to a high genetic differentiation between DF and other populations (F_ST = 0.272-0.536 > 0.25). The DF population near a fishing port was exposed to severe anthropogenic environmental stress, which may drive the extraordinarily high genetic differentiation between DF and other populations. Furthermore, the Mantel test results showed that the genetic differentiation of the other four populations was strongly correlated with the average sea surface temperature (SST) (R² = 0.82, Mantel test P < 0.05) and geographical distance (R² = 0.57, Mantel test P < 0.05). Our results suggest that the genetic structure of T. peltata in the relatively high-latitude of the SCS was significantly affected by average SST, geographical isolation, and anthropogenic activities. These findings provide a theoretical foundation for the protection of relatively high-latitude coral reefs.

Identification of dispersal barriers for a colonising seagrass using seascape genetic analysis

Seagrasses are important habitats providing many ecological services. Most species have broad distributions with maximum dispersal distances of 100's of kms, however there is limited understanding of dispersal distances of colonising species like Halodule uninervis. It commonly grows in disturbed environments and could disperse to other meadows via clonal fragments. Effective conservation management requires greater understanding of genetic structure, dispersal barriers, and connectivity timescales to predict recovery following disturbance. Despite fragment viability of up to 28 days in a congenera, this theory remains untested in situ. Using 80 neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms, we investigated genetic diversity, gene flow patterns and structure among 15 populations of H. uninervis along 2000 km of Western Australian coastline. These data were combined with a multi-generational oceanographic dispersal model and a barrier dispersal analysis to identify dispersal barriers and determine which fragment dispersal duration (FDD) and timescale over which stepping-stone connectivity occurred, best matched the observed genetic structure. The 2-7 day FDD best matched the genetic structure with 4-12 clusters, with barriers to dispersal that persisted for up to 100 years. Modelling suggested greater fragmentation of metapopulations towards the southern edge of the species distribution, but genetic diversity did not decline. Several long-term boundaries were identified even with fragment viability of up to 28 days. This suggests H. uninervis dispersal is spatially limited by factors like oceanographic features and habitat continuity which may limit dispersal of this species. This study reiterates that potential dispersal does not equal realised dispersal, and management scales of 10's of kilometers are required to maintain existing meadows. Recruitment from distances further than this scale are unlikely to aid recovery after extreme disturbance events, particularly towards the range edge of H. uninervis distribution.

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.

Mangrove ecological services at the forefront of coastal change in the French overseas territories

Mangroves are located at the land-sea interface and are therefore confronted with human settlement in the coastal areas and associated pressures and uses. This unique habitat provides important ecosystem services to coastal communities worldwide, but the global decline of their surface area and their degradation over the past decades has put coastal communities even more at risk from the effects of climate change. This paper aims to present the first ecosystem services valuation of the mangroves of the French overseas Territories. We provide the economic value of mangroves for coastal protection, carbon sequestration, water purification and fish biomass production. We coupled a geospatial analysis of mangrove's distribution with the characterisation of land artificialisation behind mangroves. Then we developed a vulnerability index based on multiple indicators of exposure to environmental and anthropogenic stressors, mangroves' sensitivity to pressures, and mangroves' adaptive capacity to adjust their production functions accordingly. We estimated the monetary value of regulation and support services provided by mangroves in French overseas territories to be on average EUR 1.6 billion annually, 60% of which is carbon sequestration, 28% coastal protection, 7% water purification and 6% fish biomass production. When considering mangroves services without the vulnerability adjustment, the total value for those services would reach EUR 2 billion per year. Although much of the spatio-temporal variability in mangrove functioning could not be considered given the spatial scale of our study, these results demonstrate the value and socio-economic importance of mangroves to face and adapt from the effects of coastal change, at local and national scales, but also highlight the loss of services due to their vulnerability. This paper emphasises on the value of ecosystem services provided by mangroves to face coastal change so that a service-based approach to conservation would plead for increased national investment into their protection.

Revealing environmentally driven population dynamics of an Arctic diatom using a novel microsatellite PoolSeq barcoding approach

Ecological stability under environmental change is determined by both interspecific and intraspecific processes. Particularly for planktonic microorganisms, it is challenging to follow intraspecific dynamics over space and time. We propose a new method, microsatellite PoolSeq barcoding (MPB), for tracing allele frequency changes in protist populations. We successfully applied this method to experimental community incubations and field samples of the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina from the Arctic, a rapidly changing ecosystem. Validation of the method found compelling accuracy in comparison with established genotyping approaches within different diversity contexts. In experimental and environmental samples, we show that MPB can detect meaningful patterns of population dynamics, resolving allelic stability and shifts within a key diatom species in response to experimental treatments as well as different bloom phases and years. Through our novel MPB approach, we produced a large dataset of populations at different time-points and locations with comparably little effort. Results like this can add insights into the roles of selection and plasticity in natural protist populations under stable experimental but also variable field conditions. Especially for organisms where genotype sampling remains challenging, MPB holds great potential to efficiently resolve eco-evolutionary dynamics and to assess the mechanisms and limits of resilience to environmental stressors.

Temperature Stress Induces Shift From Co-Existence to Competition for Organic Carbon in Microalgae-Bacterial Photobioreactor Community - Enabling Continuous Production of Microalgal Biomass

To better predict the consequences of environmental change on aquatic microbial ecosystems it is important to understand what enables community resilience. The mechanisms by which a microbial community maintain its overall function, for example, the cycling of carbon, when exposed to a stressor, can be explored by considering three concepts: biotic interactions, functional adaptations, and community structure. Interactions between species are traditionally considered as, e.g., mutualistic, parasitic, or neutral but are here broadly defined as either coexistence or competition, while functions relate to their metabolism (e.g., autotrophy or heterotrophy) and roles in ecosystem functioning (e.g., oxygen production, organic matter degradation). The term structure here align with species richness and diversity, where a more diverse community is though to exhibit a broader functional capacity than a less diverse community. These concepts have here been combined with ecological theories commonly used in resilience studies, i.e., adaptive cycles, panarchy, and cross-scale resilience, that describe how the status and behavior at one trophic level impact that of surrounding levels. This allows us to explore the resilience of a marine microbial community, cultivated in an outdoor photobioreactor, when exposed to a naturally occurring seasonal stress. The culture was monitored for 6weeks during which it was exposed to two different temperature regimes (21 ± 2 and 11 ± 1°C). Samples were taken for metatranscriptomic analysis, in order to assess the regulation of carbon uptake and utilization, and for amplicon (18S and 16S rRNA gene) sequencing, to characterize the community structure of both autotrophs (dominated by the green microalgae Mychonastes) and heterotrophs (associated bacterioplankton). Differential gene expression analyses suggested that community function at warm temperatures was based on concomitant utilization of inorganic and organic carbon assigned to autotrophs and heterotrophs, while at colder temperatures, the uptake of organic carbon was performed primarily by autotrophs. Upon the shift from high to low temperature, community interactions shifted from coexistence to competition for organic carbon. Network analysis indicated that the community structure showed opposite trends for autotrophs and heterotrophs in having either high or low diversity. Despite an abrupt change of temperature, the microbial community as a whole responded in a way that maintained the overall level of diversity and function within and across autotrophic and heterotrophic levels. This is in line with cross-scale resilience theory describing how ecosystems may balance functional overlaps within and functional redundancy between levels in order to be resilient to environmental change (such as temperature).

Resilience of the zooplankton community in the northeast Gulf of Mexico during and after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

We evaluated the resilience of the zooplankton community to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, by assessing abundance, biomass, spatial distribution, species composition, and diversity indices during spring, summer, and winter, May 2010 to August 2014. SEAMAP samples collected between spring and summer 2005-2009 were analyzed as a baseline. Our results did not indicate that there was a long-term impact from the oil spill, but did demonstrate that environmental variability and riverine processes strongly governed zooplankton community dynamics. Zooplankton abundances during the oil spill (spring 2010) were not significantly different from abundances during spring 2011 and 2012. Summer 2010 abundances were the highest observed for the 2005 to 2014 period, due to high river discharge, high chlorophyll, and aggregation in eddies. High densities of the dinoflagellate, Noctiluca, during the oil spill, and the copepod, Centropages velificatus, and larvaceans in all years, suggest that these taxa warrant further investigation. Ecosystem connectivity (zooplankton transport by currents into the oil spill region), high fecundity, relatively short generation times, and refugia in deeper depths are key factors in zooplankton resilience to major perturbations. This study serves as a baseline for assessment of future impacts to this system.

On the robustness of an eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem exposed to multiple stressors

The resistance of an east border upwelling system was investigated using relative index of marine pelagic biomass estimates under a changing environment spanning 20-years in the strongly exploited southern Canary Current Large marine Ecosystem (sCCLME). We divided the sCCLME in two parts (north and south of Cap Blanc), based on oceanographic regimes. We delineated two size-based groups (“plankton” and “pelagic fish”) corresponding to lower and higher trophic levels, respectively. Over the 20-year period, all spatial remote sensing environmental variables increased significantly, except in the area south of Cap Blanc where sea surface Chlorophyll-a concentrations declined and the upwelling favorable wind was stable. Relative index of marine pelagic abundance was higher in the south area compared to the north area of Cap Blanc. No significant latitudinal shift to the mass center was detected, regardless of trophic level. Relative pelagic abundance did not change, suggesting sCCLME pelagic organisms were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Despite strong annual variability and the presence of major stressors (overfishing, climate change), the marine pelagic ressources, mainly fish and plankton remained relatively stable over the two decades, advancing our understanding on the resistance of this east border upwelling system.

Assessing the Fractional Abundance of Highly Mixed Salt-Marsh Vegetation Using Random Forest Soft Classification

Coastal salt marshes are valuable and critical components of tidal landscapes, currently threatened by increasing rates of sea level rise, wave-induced lateral erosion, decreasing sediment supply, and human pressure. Halophytic vegetation plays an important role in salt-marsh erosional and depositional patterns and marsh survival. Mapping salt-marsh halophytic vegetation species and their fractional abundance within plant associations can provide important information on marsh vulnerability and coastal management. Remote sensing has often provided valuable methods for salt-marsh vegetation mapping; however, it has seldom been used to assess the fractional abundance of halophytes. In this study, we developed and tested a novel approach to estimate fractional abundance of halophytic species and bare soil that is based on Random Forest (RF) soft classification. This approach can fully use the information contained in the frequency of decision tree “votes” to estimate fractional abundance of each species. Such a method was applied to WorldView-2 (WV-2) data acquired for the Venice lagoon (Italy), where marshes are characterized by a high diversity of vegetation species. The proposed method was successfully tested against field observations derived from ancillary field surveys. Our results show that the new approach allows one to obtain high accuracy (6.7% < root-mean-square error (RMSE) < 18.7% and 0.65 < R2 < 0.96) in estimating the sub-pixel fractional abundance of marsh-vegetation species. Comparing results obtained with the new RF soft-classification approach with those obtained using the traditional RF regression method for fractional abundance estimation, we find a superior performance of the novel RF soft-classification approach with respect to the existing RF regression methods. The distribution of the dominant species obtained from the RF soft classification was compared to the one obtained from an RF hard classification, showing that numerous mixed areas are wrongly labeled as populated by specific species by the hard classifier. As for the effectiveness of using WV-2 for salt-marsh vegetation mapping, feature importance analyses suggest that Yellow (584–632 nm), NIR 1 (near-infrared 1, 765–901 nm) and NIR 2 (near-infrared 2, 856–1043 nm) bands are critical in RF soft classification. Our results bear important consequences for mapping and monitoring vegetation-species fractional abundance within plant associations and their dynamics, which are key aspects in biogeomorphic analyses of salt-marsh landscapes.

Recovery and variation of the coastal fish community following a cold intrusion event in the Penghu Islands, Taiwan

Knowledge of community resilience aids the development of strategies to mitigate the impacts of a disturbance. An extreme low-seawater temperature event in late January and February 2008 resulted in high fish mortality in the coastal waters of the Penghu Islands, Taiwan. In this study, we used underwater diving visual censuses to analyze fish communities at eight sampling stations along the coast of the Penghu Islands for seven years after the 2008 event. We evaluated community metrics, including species richness, abundance-weighted diversity, average thermal affinity, and average trophic level, and described the temporal variation in select dominant species abundances. Species richness and diversity of the communities required 53 months to reach a steady-state at the sampling stations following the cold water intrusion. The cold event initially reduced community thermal affinity, which then increased throughout the study period, reflecting the recovery of the community to baseline thermal conditions. The increased average trophic level after the cold event implied that the temperature shock decreased the proportion of lower trophic-level fishes. Average trophic level declined as the communities recovered from the disturbance, reflecting the recovery of the community to baseline species composition in terms of feeding habit. Our results suggest that functional diversity may require longer to recover than taxonomic diversity for communities in the Penghu Islands.

A New Long-Term Marine Biodiversity Monitoring Program for the Knowledge and Management in Marine Protected Areas of the Mexican Caribbean

In the Mexican Caribbean, 15 marine protected areas (MPAs) have been established for managing and protecting marine ecosystems. These MPAs receive high anthropogenic pressure from coastal development, tourism, and fishing, all in synergy with climate change. To contribute to the MPAs’ effectiveness, it is necessary to provide a long-term observation system of the condition of marine ecosystems and species. Our study proposes the establishment of a new marine biodiversity monitoring program (MBMP) focusing on three MPAs of the Mexican Caribbean. Five conservation objects (COs) were defined (coral reefs, seagrass beds, mangroves, marine turtles, and sharks-rays) for their ecological relevance and the pressures they are facing. Coral reef, seagrass and mangroves have multiple biological, biogeochemical and physical interactions. Marine turtles are listed as endangered species, and the status of their populations is unknown in the marine area of the MPAs. Elasmobranchs play a key role as top and medium predators, and their populations have been poorly studied. Indicators were proposed for monitoring each CO. As a technological innovation, all information obtained from the MBMP will be uploaded to the Coastal Marine Information and Analysis System (SIMAR), a public, user-friendly and interactive web platform that allows for automatic data management and processing.

Marine heatwaves and the collapse of marginal North Atlantic kelp forests

Extreme climatic events including marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming more frequent and severe in the Anthropocene. However, our understanding of how these events affect population dynamics of ecologically important species is limited, in part because extreme events are rare and difficult to predict. Here, we quantified the occurrence and severity of MHWs over 60 years in warm range edge kelp forests on both sides of the North Atlantic. The cumulative annual intensity of MHWs increased two- to four-fold during this period, coinciding with the disappearance of kelps. We experimentally demonstrated a relationship between strong and severe 2018 heatwaves and high kelp mortality in both regions. Patterns of kelp mortality were strongly linked to maximum temperature anomalies, which crossed lethal thresholds in both regions. Translocation and tagging experiments revealed similar kelp mortality rates on reefs dominated by healthy kelp forests and degraded sediment-laden algal 'turfs', indicating equal vulnerability to extreme events. These results suggest a mechanistic link between MHWs and broad-scale kelp loss, and highlight how warming can make ecosystem boundaries unstable, forcing shifts to undesirable ecosystem states under episodically extreme climatic conditions.

Zooplankton dynamics in a changing environment: A 13-year survey in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

Dynamics of the subsurface (2-3 m) mesozooplankton (i.e., > 200 μm) in the Bay of Calvi (Corsica, France) were explored, combining time series (2004-2016) of 14 zooplankton groups, wind gusts, water temperature, nitrate and chlorophyll-a. Zooplankton data was obtained through image analysis. While contrasted group-specific seasonal patterns were observed, the most productive zooplankton annual event occurred in April (spring peak), concentrating on average 25% of the total annual abundance. A "typical" year was defined based on the annual succession of different community states, highlighting particular years (2007, 2015 and 2012) mainly characterized by weak spring peak. Environmental influences on the interannual variability of zooplankton were explored and while relationship between chlorophyll-a and zooplankton abundance was unclear, the availability of nutrients (December-March), potentially mediated via the wind regime (October-January) seemed to be essential to the occurrence of the spring peak. Additionally, we observed an influence of temperature, with winter thermal thresholds (between 12.1 °C and 13.4 °C) conditioning the spring peak. Also, the occurrence of lower annual abundances after 2010 was synchronous with the sharp increase of seawater warming trend, especially regarding winter temperature (0.30 °C.year^-1). Finally, winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was found to be correlated to both winter water temperature and spring peak abundance, which suggests large-scale processes to impact regional zooplankton community.

Warming and temperature variability determine the performance of two invertebrate predators

In a warming ocean, temperature variability imposes intensified peak stress, but offers periods of stress release. While field observations on organismic responses to heatwaves are emerging, experimental evidence is rare and almost lacking for shorter-scale environmental variability. For two major invertebrate predators, we simulated sinusoidal temperature variability (±3 °C) around todays' warm summer temperatures and around a future warming scenario (+4 °C) over two months, based on high-resolution 15-year temperature data that allowed implementation of realistic seasonal temperature shifts peaking midpoint. Warming decreased sea stars' (Asterias rubens) energy uptake (Mytilus edulis consumption) and overall growth. Variability around the warming scenario imposed additional stress onto Asterias leading to an earlier collapse in feeding under sinusoidal fluctuations. High-peak temperatures prevented feeding, which was not compensated during phases of stress release (low-temperature peaks). In contrast, increased temperatures increased feeding on Mytilus but not growth rates of the recent invader Hemigrapsus takanoi, irrespective of the scale at which temperature variability was imposed. This study highlights species-specific impacts of warming and identifies temperature variability at the scale of days to weeks/months as important driver of thermal responses. When species' thermal limits are exceeded, temperature variability represents an additional source of stress as seen from future warming scenarios.

Substrate rugosity and temperature matters: patterns of benthic diversity at tropical intertidal reefs in the SW Atlantic

Modeling and forecasting ocean ecosystems in a changing world will require advances in observational efforts to monitor marine biodiversity. One of the observational challenges in coastal reef ecosystems is to quantify benthic and climate interactions which are key to community dynamics across habitats. Habitat complexity (i.e., substrate rugosity) on intertidal reefs can be an important variable explaining benthic diversity and taxa composition, but the association between substrate and seasonal variability is poorly understood on lateritic reefs in the South Atlantic. We asked if benthic assemblages on intertidal reefs with distinct substrate rugosity would follow similar seasonal patterns of succession following meteo-oceanographic variability in a tropical coastal area of Brazil. We combined an innovative 3D imaging for measuring substrate rugosity with satellite monitoring to monitor spatio-temporal patterns of benthic assemblages. The dataset included monthly in situ surveys of substrate cover and taxon diversity and richness, temporal variability in meteo-oceanographic conditions, and reef structural complexity from four sites on the Eastern Marine Ecoregion of Brazil. Additionally, correlation coefficients between temperature and both benthic diversity and community composition from one year of monitoring were used to project biodiversity trends under future warming scenarios. Our results revealed that benthic diversity and composition on intertidal reefs are strongly regulated by surface rugosity and sea surface temperatures, which control the dominance of macroalgae or corals. Intertidal reef biodiversity was positively correlated with reef rugosity which supports previous assertions of higher regional intertidal diversity on lateritic reefs that offer increased substrate complexity. Predicted warming temperatures in the Eastern Marine Ecoregion of Brazil will likely lead to a dominance of macroalgae taxa over the lateritic reefs and lower overall benthic diversity. Our findings indicate that rugosity is not only a useful tool for biodiversity mapping in reef intertidal ecosystems but also that spatial differences in rugosity would lead to very distinct biogeographic and temporal patterns. This study offers a unique baseline of benthic biodiversity on coastal marine habitats that is complementary to worldwide efforts to improve monitoring and management of coastal reefs.