Hospital Volume and Social Determinants of Health Do Not Impact Outcomes in Fenestrated Visceral Segment Endovascular Aortic Repair for Patients Treated at VQI Centers

ObjectiveThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of social determinants of health on access to high volume centers and clinical outcomes in fenestrated abdominal aortic endografting. Further, the effect of center volume in fenestrated endografting on outcomes will be sought as this is ill defined. The data herein have the potential to affect referral patterns and locations of complex fenestrated aortic aneurysm care. If lower volume centers achieve equivalent outcomes to higher volume centers, then limiting access to a small number of centers may not be justified.MethodsVascular Quality Initiative (VQI) was utilized as the data source. Four adverse outcomes categories were investigated : (1) Lack of follow up data in the VQI database at 1 year postoperatively; (2) Thirty day operative mortality; (3) Composite perioperative adverse event outcome; and (4) Twelve month mortality. Social determinants of health exposure variables included rural status, non-metropolitan living area, highest and lowest decile and quintile area deprivation index, insurance status, and non-home living status. Designated categories were created for patients operated on in centers within the top 25% of case volume, centers in the bottom 25% of case volume, and in centers with less than 10 total fenestrated endograft cases. Univariable analyses were performed with Chi-squared testing for categorical variables and t test for comparison of means. Multivariable binary logistic regression was performed to identify risks for the composite adverse perioperative event.ResultsThere was no statistically significant association with the composite adverse perioperative event category, 30-day mortality or 12-month mortality for any of the social determinants of health or center volume categories. Patients who live in rural areas (P = .029) and patients with Military/VA insurance (P < .001) were significantly more likely to be lost to follow up at their index VQI center at 1 year. When accounting for all standard co-morbidities, none of the following variables had any significant association with the composite adverse perioperative event on multivariable analysis: absolute center volume as an ordinal variable (P = .985); procedure at a bottom 25th percentile volume center (P = .214); procedure at a center with less than 10 total fenestrated cases in the database (P = .521); rural home status (P = .622); remote from metropolitan home status (P = .619); highest 10% ADI (P = .903); highest 20% ADI (P = .219); Lowest 10% of ADI (P = .397). The variables that had a statistically significant multivariable association with the composite adverse event were 3 or 4 visceral vessels stented vs 2 vessels (P < .001), baseline renal insufficiency (P < .001), female sex (P < .001), ESRD on dialysis (P = .002), and history of coronary revasculizaiton (P = .047). There was noted to be a statistically significant (P < .01) increase in 30 day mortality, composite adverse perioperative event, and 12 month mortality in moving from 2 to 3 to 4 fenestrated stented vessels. However, amongst patients who were treated with 3 and 4 vessel fenestrated stenting, patients treated at bottom 25th percentile centers and centers with less than 10 total cases did not experience a higher rate of composite adverse perioperative event, 30 day mortality, or 12 month mortality relative to top 25% volume centers indicating safety of these procedures in lower volume centers.ConclusionsSocial determinants of health and center volume do not impact outcomes in fenestrated visceral segment aortic endograft procedures performed at centers participating in the Vascular Quality Initiative. There is progressive morbidity and mortality in moving from 2 to 3 to 4 visceral stents and fenestrations, however lower volume centers within VQI achieve equivalent outcomes to high volume centers in performing 3 and 4 vessel visceral fenestrated stent cases. Female sex, ESRD, prior coronary revascularization, and baseline renal insufficiency portend an increased risk for perioperative morbidity for fenestrated visceral segment aortic endografting.

Mapping domains of early life determinants of future multimorbidity across three UK longitudinal cohort studies

Many studies use a reductionist approach to isolate the influence of one factor in childhood on multimorbidity rather than consider the combined effect of wider determinants. We explored how potential multiple early life determinants of multimorbidity can be characterised across three UK cohort studies. We used the National Child Development Study (NCDS), the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70), and the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s Study (ACONF) to identified early life variables that fit into 12 conceptualised domains of early life determinants of multimorbidity. Variables were assigned into 12 domains; principal component analysis reduced the dimensionality of the data and structured variables into subgroups. The data audit identified 7 domains in ACONF, 10 domains in NCDS and 12 domains in BCS70. Dominant components included maternal fertility histories within the prenatal, antenatal and birth domain, long-term illnesses within the child health domain, educational ability within the child education and health literacy domain, ethnicity within the demography domain, parental health behaviours within the transgenerational domain, housing within the socioeconomic domain and parental-child interactions within the parental-family domain. We demonstrated that if multiple large scale longitudinal studies are used, there is enough data available for researchers to consider conceptualising early life risk factors of multimorbidity across groups or domains. Such conceptualisation can help challenge the existing understanding of disease aetiology and develop new ideas for prevention of multimorbidity.

Assessing Cardiometabolic Disease Risk Factors Among Healthcare Workers in a Rural Tertiary Care Hospital in Wardha, India: A Study Protocol

Background Cardiometabolic diseases pose a significant public health challenge globally, particularly among healthcare workers, who often face heightened occupational stress and lifestyle challenges. This study aims to assess the prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors and their determinants among healthcare workers at Acharya Vinoba Bhave Rural Hospital, a tertiary care hospital in rural Wardha, Maharashtra, India. Methods A cross-sectional study design was employed, involving the recruitment of healthcare workers from various job roles. Data on demographic characteristics, behavioral risk factors, anthropometric measurements, biochemical parameters, and mental health status was collected using standardized instruments and procedures. Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics, inferential tests, and multivariate analyses to identify significant associations and predictors of cardiometabolic risk factors. Expected results Anticipated findings include a notable prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors among healthcare workers, including elevated BMI, fasting blood glucose, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. Behavioral risk factors such as physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary habits, tobacco use, and alcohol consumption are expected to be prevalent. Additionally, varying degrees of psychological distress, including depression, anxiety, and stress, are anticipated. Significant associations between cardiometabolic risk factors and demographic variables are expected to be identified. Conclusion The study findings provide valuable insights into the prevalence and determinants of cardiometabolic risk factors among healthcare workers in a rural setting. These insights can inform targeted interventions and public health strategies aimed at improving the cardiovascular health and overall well-being of healthcare workers, ultimately contributing to the enhancement of healthcare delivery and outcomes in rural areas.

Role of the microbiota-gut-heart axis between bile acids and cardiovascular disease

Bile acid (BA) receptors (e.g., farnesoid X-activated receptor, muscarinic receptor) are expressed in cardiomyocytes, endothelial cells, and vascular smooth muscle cells, indicating the relevance of BAs to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Hydrophobic BAs are cardiotoxic, while hydrophilic BAs are cardioprotective. For example, fetal cardiac insufficiency in maternal intrahepatic cholestasis during pregnancy, and the degree of fetal cardiac abnormality, is closely related to the level of hydrophobic BAs in maternal blood and infant blood. However, ursodeoxycholic acid (the most hydrophilic BA) can reverse/prevent these detrimental effects of increased levels of hydrophobic BAs on the heart. The gut microbiota (GM) and GM metabolites (especially secondary BAs) have crucial roles in hypertension, atherosclerosis, unstable angina, and heart failure. Herein, we describe the relationship between CVD and the GM at the BA level. We combine the concept of the "microbiota-gut-heart axis" (MGHA) and postulate the role and mechanism of BAs in CVD development. In addition, the strategies for treating CVD with BAs under the MGHA are proposed.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease: a causal perspective

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) persist in high-income countries despite marked overall declines in CVD-related morbidity and mortality. After decades of research, the field has struggled to unequivocally answer a crucial question: is the association between low socioeconomic position (SEP) and the development of CVD causal? We review relevant evidence from various study designs and disciplinary perspectives. Traditional observational, family-based and Mendelian randomization studies support the widely accepted view that low SEP causally influences CVD. However, results from quasi-experimental and experimental studies are both limited and equivocal. While more experimental and quasi-experimental studies are needed to aid causal understanding and inform policy, high-quality descriptive studies are also required to document inequalities, investigate their contextual dependence and consider SEP throughout the lifespan; no simple hierarchy of evidence exists for an exposure as complex as SEP. The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the context-dependent nature of CVD inequalities, with the generation of potentially new causal pathways linking SEP and CVD. The linked goals of understanding the causal nature of SEP and CVD associations, their contextual dependence, and their remediation by policy interventions necessitate a detailed understanding of society, its change over time and the phenotypes of CVD. Interdisciplinary research is therefore key to advancing both causal understanding and policy translation.

Cardiovascular diseases in European ethnic minorities: Beyond the traditional cardiovascular risk factors

This editorial is intended to be a reflection on cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in European ethnic minorities. In some European countries, ethnic minority realities, due to their recent appearance, are still to be studied in depth. The experience of several European countries, where the migration processes started earlier, even more than a century ago, can help by being an example. Many studies have shown that major differences in CVD burden exist not only between countries, but also within the same country when considering different social strata and ethnic groups. The CV risk factors underlying heart disease have been well established. Important epidemiological studies have helped us understand that the underlying causes of heart disease as well as the behaviors that can help prevent them are the same. We are now well aware that CVD should be treated by considering a holistic approach. This is why the social determinants (SDs) of health that may worsen the disease burden or that, vice versa, may improve the treatment, and even more significantly, the prognosis of a patient's illness should be taken into consideration. For ethnic minority patients, this holistic, hermeneutic approach is of importance. Several SDs of health that influence CVDs have been identified but their relevance for the health of ethnic minorities has not yet been clearly defined. In some European countries, most ethnic minorities are largely also religious minorities. Only a few studies have evaluated the role of religion, which is an important SD that affects the probability of having CV risk factors and diseases. Adolescents, particularly those belonging to the second generation, seem to be the weak link. If we believe that these young people are really citizens of their country of birth, then a way of recognizing their belonging to the community starts from a will to better understand their condition, in order to assist them while they grow physically and mentally. Thinking about safeguarding the health of this population should be more than a health task, rather a goal of social justice.

Epidemiological transition: a historical analysis of immigration patterns by country of origin (1861-1986) related to circulatory system diseases and all-cause mortality in twentieth-century Australia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Circulatory system disease (CSD) patterns vary over time and between countries, related to lifestyle risk factors, associated in turn with socioeconomic circumstances. Current global CSD epidemics in developing economies are similar in scale to those observed previously in the USA and Australasia. Australia exhibits an important macroeconomic phenomenon as a rapidly transitioning economy with high immigration throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. We wished to examine how that historical immigration related to CSD patterns subsequently.

METHODS AND SETTING

We provide a novel empirical analysis employing census-derived place of birth by age bracket and sex from 1891 to 1986, in order to map patterns of immigration against CSD mortality rates from 1907 onwards. Age-specific generalised additive models for both CSD mortality in the general population, and all-cause mortality for the foreign-born (FB) only, from 1910 to 1980 were also devised for both males and females.

RESULTS

The percentage of FB fell from 32% in 1891 to 9.8% in 1947. Rates of CSD rose consistently, particularly from the 1940s onwards, peaked in the 1960s, then declined sharply in the 1980s and showed a strong period effect across age groups and genders. The main effects of age and census year and their interaction were highly statistically significant for CSD mortality for males (p<0.001, each term) and for females (p<0.001, each term). The main effect of age and year were statistically significant for all-cause mortality minus net migration rates for the FB females (each p<0.001), and for FB males, age (p<0.001) was significant.

CONCLUSIONS

We argue our empirical calculations, supported by historical and socioepidemiological evidence, employing immigration patterns as a proxy for epidemiological transition, affirm the life course hypothesis that both early life circumstances and later life lifestyle drive CSD patterns.

Clinical determinants of ischemic heart disease in Eastern Europe

Cardiovascular inequalities remain pervasive in the European countries. Disparities in disease burden is apparent among population groups based on sex, ethnicity, economic status or geography. To address this challenge, The Lancet Regional Health - Europe convened experts from a broad range of countries to assess the current state of knowledge of cardiovascular disease inequalities across Europe. This report presents the main challenges in Eastern Europe. There were pronounced variations in cardiovascular disease mortality rates across Eastern European countries with a remarkably high disease burden in the North-Eastern Europe. There were also significant differences in access and delivery to healthcare and unmet healthcare needs. Addressing the cardiovascular determinants of health and reducing health disparities in its many dimensions has long been a priority of the European Parliament's work through resolutions and by financing pilot projects. Yet, despite these efforts, few large-scale studies have been conducted to examine the feasibility of reducing cardiovascular disparities in Eastern Europe. There is an urgent need for improved data, measurements, reporting, and comparisons; and for dedicated, collaborative research. There is also a need for a broader understanding of the typology of actions needed to tackle cardiovascular inequalities and a clear political will.

The importance of socio-economic determinants of health in the care of patients with peripheral artery disease: A narrative review from VAS

Socio-economic determinants of health (SDoH) include various nonmedical factors in the socio-economic sphere with a potentially significant impact on health outcomes. Their effects manifest through several mediators/moderators (behavioral characteristics, physical environment, psychosocial circumstances, access to care, and biological factors). Various critical covariates (age, gender/sex, race/ethnicity, culture/acculturation, and disability status) also interact. Analyzing the effects of these factors is challenging due to their enormous complexity. Although the significance of SDoH for cardiovascular diseases is well documented, research regarding their impact on peripheral artery disease (PAD) occurrence and care is less well documented. This narrative review explores to what extent SDoH are multifaceted in PAD and how they are associated with its occurrence and care. Additionally, methodological issues that may hamper this effort are addressed. Finally, the most important question, whether this association may contribute to reasonable interventions aimed at SDoH, is analyzed. This endeavor requires attention to the social context, a whole systems approach, multilevel-thinking, and a broader alliance that reaches out to more stakeholders outside the medical sphere. More research is needed to justify the power in this concept to improve PAD-related outcomes like lower extremity amputations. At the present time, some evidence, reasonable consideration, and intuitive reasoning support the implementation of various interventions in SDoH in this field.

Spatial variation of cardiovascular mortality in Cali, Colombia, between 2010 and 2017

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide and in Colombia. The analysis of CVD mortality has been mainly relied on individual factors and rates, but occurrence is also related to contextual conditions. Understanding the distribution of CVD in a region will contribute to implement more focused-preventive and care interventions.

METHODS

Using the national mortality register established by the Department of National Statistics, standardized rates and spatial distribution of CVD mortality were estimated for Cali, Colombia, between 2010-2017. Global and local spatial aggregation was assessed using the Geary's C test and for each district standardized mortality ratios smoothed by the Bayesian empirical were estimated.

RESULTS

Over the period, CVD was the main cause of mortality with 28,804 deaths accounting for 23,8% of total deaths. The global CVD mortality rate varied from 235.9 to 257.4 per 100.000 habitants, with an average increase of 9.1% in the percentage change. The main cause of mortality were hypertensive diseases following by ischemic heart diseases and stroke. The standardized mortality ratios smoothed by the Bayesian empirical method showed that the districts 7, 13, 14, 15 and 16 located at the eastern area with the lowest socio-economic strata and the district 22 at the south of the city with the highest socio-economic strata had the high risks of CVD mortality. All these areas were at the boundary of the city. The the lowest risk was observed in districts 1 and 2 at the northwest area with the upper socio-economic strata. Over the study period, a spatial autocorrelation was found in the districts 1,9 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 19, and 21 by using the Geary's C test. The highest significant spatial association was found in the districts 1 and 21.

CONCLUSION

Of 22 districts in Cali, the highest risk of CVD mortality was found in three at the lowest and one in the upper socio-economic strata between 2013 and 2017. Over the period a global spatial aggregation was identified due mainly to districts peripherical located suggesting that there could be contextual conditions influencing the risk. Therefore, there is a need for considering local conditions to prevent CVD mortality.

Construction and validation of CAPSES scale as a composite indicator of SES for health research: an application to modeling social determinants of cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

The main objective of this study was to construct and validate a composite socioeconomic status indicator containing material capital, human capital, and social capital (CAPSES scale) and also appropriate it for CVDs in a large population-based study.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study, the Urban HEART-2 project, was conducted in Tehran, Iran, in 2011. A total of 34,116 households covering 118,542 individuals were assessed in this study. A 14-parts questionnaire was completed for all selected households. All the gathered data were based on the participants' self-reports. Literacy, wealth index, expenditure, skill level, and Townsend index were used as SES indexes. CVDs, including Hypertension, Myocardial infarction, and stroke, were considered the main outcomes. A structural equation model (SEM) was used to construct a CAPSES scale and a composition index of SES. Criterion validity and Construct validity were used to assess this scale.

RESULTS

A total of 91,830 subjects consisting of 33,884 (49%) men were included in this analysis. The mean age of the participants was 41.5 ± 11.37 years. Among the assessed participants, 5904(6.4%) reported hypertension, 1507(1.6%) myocardial infarction, and 407(0.4%) strokes. The overall weighted prevalence of self-reported cardiovascular events (hypertension, stroke, and MI) was 8.03% (95%CI: 7.8-8.2). Inverse associations were seen between the CAPSES scale and its domains with CVDs, adjusted for sex, age, BMI, smoking, and diabetes by a multiple logistic regression model.

CONCLUSION

The CAPSES scale was significantly associated with stroke and hypertension. Our findings showed that the CAPSES index could be useful for public health research.

Relationships between neighborhood disadvantage and cardiovascular findings at autopsy in subjects with sudden death

BACKGROUND

Neighborhood disadvantage is associated with a higher risk of sudden cardiac death. However, autopsy findings have never been investigated in this context. Here, we sought to explore associations between neighborhood disadvantage and cardiovascular findings at autopsy in cases of sudden death in the State of Maryland.

METHODS

State of Maryland investigation reports from 2,278 subjects within the CVPath Sudden Death Registry were screened for street addresses and 9-digit zip codes. Area deprivation index (ADI), used as metric for neighborhood disadvantage, was available for 1,464 subjects; 650 of whom self-identified as Black and 814 as White. The primary study outcome measurements were causes of death and gross and histopathologic findings of the heart.

RESULTS

Subjects from most disadvantaged neighborhoods (i.e., ADI ≥ 8; n = 607) died at younger age compared with subjects from less disadvantaged neighborhoods (i.e., ADI ≤ 7; n = 857; 46.07 ± 14.10 vs 47.78 ± 13.86 years; P = 0.02) and were more likely Black or women. They were less likely to die from cardiac causes of death (61.8% vs 67.7%; P = 0.02) and had less severe atherosclerotic plaque features, including plaque burden, calcification, intraplaque hemorrhage, and thin-cap fibroatheromas. In addition, subjects from most disadvantaged neighborhoods had lower frequencies of plaque rupture (18.8% vs 25.1%, P = 0.004). However, these associations were omitted after adjustment for traditional risk factors and race.

CONCLUSION

Neighborhood disadvantage did not associate with cause of death or coronary histopathology after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and race, implying that social determinants of health other than neighborhood disadvantage play a more prominent role in sudden cardiac death.

Multidisciplinary ecosystem to study lifecourse determinants and prevention of early-onset burdensome multimorbidity (MELD-B) - protocol for a research collaboration

Background

Most people living with multiple long-term condition multimorbidity (MLTC-M) are under 65 (defined as 'early onset'). Earlier and greater accrual of long-term conditions (LTCs) may be influenced by the timing and nature of exposure to key risk factors, wider determinants or other LTCs at different life stages. We have established a research collaboration titled 'MELD-B' to understand how wider determinants, sentinel conditions (the first LTC in the lifecourse) and LTC accrual sequence affect risk of early-onset, burdensome MLTC-M, and to inform prevention interventions.

Aim

Our aim is to identify critical periods in the lifecourse for prevention of early-onset, burdensome MLTC-M, identified through the analysis of birth cohorts and electronic health records, including artificial intelligence (AI)-enhanced analyses.

Design

We will develop deeper understanding of 'burdensomeness' and 'complexity' through a qualitative evidence synthesis and a consensus study. Using safe data environments for analyses across large, representative routine healthcare datasets and birth cohorts, we will apply AI methods to identify early-onset, burdensome MLTC-M clusters and sentinel conditions, develop semi-supervised learning to match individuals across datasets, identify determinants of burdensome clusters, and model trajectories of LTC and burden accrual. We will characterise early-life (under 18 years) risk factors for early-onset, burdensome MLTC-M and sentinel conditions. Finally, using AI and causal inference modelling, we will model potential 'preventable moments', defined as time periods in the life course where there is an opportunity for intervention on risk factors and early determinants to prevent the development of MLTC-M. Patient and public involvement is integrated throughout.

A conceptual framework for characterising lifecourse determinants of multiple long-term condition multimorbidity

Objective

Social, biological and environmental factors in early-life, defined as the period from preconception until age 18, play a role in shaping the risk of multiple long-term condition multimorbidity. However, there is a need to conceptualise these early-life factors, how they relate to each other, and provide conceptual framing for future research on aetiology and modelling prevention scenarios of multimorbidity. We develop a conceptual framework to characterise the population-level domains of early-life determinants of future multimorbidity.

Method

This work was conducted as part of the Multidisciplinary Ecosystem to study Lifecourse Determinants and Prevention of Early-onset Burdensome Multimorbidity (MELD-B) study. The conceptualisation of multimorbidity lifecourse determinant domains was shaped by a review of existing research evidence and policy, and co-produced with public involvement via two workshops.

Results

Early-life risk factors incorporate personal, social, economic, behavioural and environmental factors, and the key domains discussed in research evidence, policy, and with public contributors included adverse childhood experiences, socioeconomics, the social and physical environment, and education. Policy recommendations more often focused on individual-level factors as opposed to the wider determinants of health discussed within the research evidence. Some domains highlighted through our co-production process with public contributors, such as religion and spirituality, health screening and check-ups, and diet, were not adequately considered within the research evidence or policy.

Conclusions

This co-produced conceptualisation can inform research directions using primary and secondary data to investigate the early-life characteristics of population groups at risk of future multimorbidity, as well as policy directions to target public health prevention scenarios of early-onset multimorbidity.

Patterns of emergency department use in rural and metropolitan New South Wales by socioeconomic status: A population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the patterns of ED use in metropolitan and rural New South Wales (NSW) by socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective, population-based study of de-identified data from the NSW Emergency Department Data Collection (EDDC). The study population comprised of NSW residents who presented to an NSW public hospital ED in 2013-2019 and were registered in the NSW EDDC. Total ED presentations, negative binomial regression modelled annual changes in ED presentations over 2013-2019, and age- and sex-standardised rates of ED presentations in 2019 were assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, between 2013 and 2019, ED presentations increased in metropolitan and rural NSW, with mean annual percentage increases of 3.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-3.5) and 2.5% (95% CI 2.0-2.9), respectively. This growth varied by SES, with larger increases observed in higher SES groups. The bulk of presentations in rural NSW were from individuals living in disadvantaged areas. Standardised rates of ED presentations were highest in the most disadvantaged quintiles (SES 1) and progressively decreased with increasing SES in both rural and metropolitan NSW (negative gradients). Rates were higher in rural NSW compared to metropolitan NSW across all SES quintiles for total, low acuity and non-low acuity presentations.

CONCLUSIONS

Negative gradients in rates of ED presentations with increasing SES were observed in both metropolitan and rural NSW. At each SES quintile, rates of ED presentations were higher in rural compared to metropolitan areas. Further research exploring the underlying causal mechanisms leading to increased ED demand in rural NSW and socioeconomically disadvantaged populations is warranted.

Machine learning identifies prominent factors associated with cardiovascular disease: findings from two million adults in the Kashgar Prospective Cohort Study (KPCS)

BACKGROUND

Identifying factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) is critical for its prevention, but this topic is scarcely investigated in Kashgar prefecture, Xinjiang, northwestern China. We thus explored the CVD epidemiology and identified prominent factors associated with CVD in this region.

METHODS

A total of 1,887,710 adults at baseline (in 2017) of the Kashgar Prospective Cohort Study were included in the analysis. Sixteen candidate factors, including seven demographic factors, 4 lifestyle factors, and 5 clinical factors, were collected from a questionnaire and health examination records. CVD was defined according to International Clinical Diagnosis (ICD-10) codes. We first used logistic regression models to investigate the association between each of the candidate factors and CVD. Then, we employed 3 machine learning methods-Random Forest, Random Ferns, and Extreme Gradient Boosting-to rank and identify prominent factors associated with CVD. Stratification analyses by sex, ethnicity, education level, economic status, and residential setting were also performed to test the consistency of the ranking.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CVD in Kashgar prefecture was 8.1%. All the 16 candidate factors were confirmed to be significantly associated with CVD (odds ratios ranged from 1.03 to 2.99, all p values < 0.05) in logistic regression models. Further machine learning-based analysis suggested that age, occupation, hypertension, exercise frequency, and dietary pattern were the five most prominent factors associated with CVD. The ranking of relative importance for prominent factors in stratification analyses showed that the factor importance generally followed the same pattern as that in the overall sample.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD is a major public health concern in Kashgar prefecture. Age, occupation, hypertension, exercise frequency, and dietary pattern might be the prominent factors associated with CVD in this region.In the future, these factors should be given priority in preventing CVD in future.

Socioeconomic status and modification of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk prediction: epidemiological analysis using data from the atherosclerosis risk in communities study

OBJECTIVE

Examine whether the relationship between the pooled cohort equations (PCE) predicted 10-year risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and absolute risk for ASCVD is modified by socioeconomic status (SES).

DESIGN

Population-based longitudinal cohort study-Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC)-investigating the development of cardiovascular disease across demographic subgroups.

SETTING

Four communities in the USA-Forsyth County, North Carolina, Jackson, Mississippi, suburbs of Minneapolis, Minnesota and Washington County, Maryland.

PARTICIPANTS

We identified 9782 ARIC men and women aged 54-73 without ASCVD at study visit 4 (1996-1998).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Risk ratio (RR) differences in 10-year incident hospitalisations or death for ASCVD by SES and PCE predicted 10-year ASCVD risk categories to assess for risk modification. SES measures included educational attainment and census-tract neighbourhood deprivation using the Area Deprivation Index. PCE risk categories were 0%-5%, >5%-10%, >10%-15% and >15%. SES as a prognostic factor to estimate ASCVD absolute risk categories was further investigated as an interaction term with the PCE.

RESULTS

ASCVD RRs for participants without a high school education (referent college educated) increased at higher PCE estimated risk categories and was consistently >1. Results indicate education is both a risk modifier and delineates populations at higher ASCVD risk independent of PCE. Neighbourhood deprivation did modify association but was less consistent in direction of effect. However, for participants residing in the most deprived neighbourhoods (referent least deprived neighbourhoods) with a PCE estimated risk >10%-15%, risk was significantly elevated (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.59). Education and neighbourhood deprivation inclusion as an interaction term on the PCE risk score was statistically significant (likelihood ratio p≤0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

SES modifies the association between PCE estimated risk and absolute risk of ASCVD. SES added into ASCVD risk prediction models as an interaction term may improve our ability to predict absolute ASCVD risk among socially disadvantaged populations.

Disparities in cardiovascular disease prevalence among middle-aged and older adults: Roles of socioeconomic position, social connection, and behavioral and physiological risk factors

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of premature death globally and a major contributor to decreasing quality of life. In the present study, we investigated the contribution of social, behavioral, and physiological determinants of CVD and their different patterns among middle-aged and older adults.

Methods

We used harmonized data from 6 nationally representative individual-level longitudinal studies across 25 countries. We restricted the age to ≥50 years and defined cases as a self-reported history of CVD. The exposure variables were the demographic status (age and sex), socioeconomic position (education level, employment, and household income level), social connections (marital status and family size), behavioral factors (smoking, alcohol drinking, and frequency of moderate to vigorous physical activity), and physiological risk factors (obesity, presence of hypertension, and presence of diabetes). Mixed logistic regression models were fitted to investigate the associations, and dominance analysis was conducted to examine the relative contributions.

Results

In total, 413,203 observations were included in the final analysis, with the CVD prevalence ranging from 10.4% in Mexico to 28.8% in the United States. Physiological risk factors were the main driver of CVD prevalence with the highest dominance proportion, which was higher in developing countries (China, 57.5%; Mexico, 72.8%) than in developed regions (United States, England, 10 European countries, and South Korea). Socioeconomic position and behavioral factors also highly contributed but were less significant in developing countries than in developed regions. The relative contribution of socioeconomic position ranged from 9.4% in Mexico to 23.4% in the United States, and that of behavioral factors ranged from 5.7% in Mexico to 26.1% in England.

Conclusion

The present study demonstrated the different patterns of determinant contributions to CVD prevalence across developing and developed countries. With the challenges produced by different risk factors, the implementation of tailored prevention and control strategies will likely narrow disparities in the CVD prevalence by promoting health management and enhancing the capacity of health systems across different countries.

Prevalence and determinants of return to work after various coronary events: meta-analysis of prospective studies

Return to work (RTW) after a coronary event remains a major concern. This systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies published between January 1988 and August 2020, aim to evaluate the prevalence of RTW after a coronary event (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, angina pectoris) and to assess the determinants of RTW (such as follow-up duration, date of recruitment, country, gender, occupational factors, etc.). PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines were followed. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale. Random-effects models were carried out to determine pooled prevalence estimates and 95% confident interval. A total of 43 prospective studies (34,964 patients) were investigated. RTW overall random effects pooled prevalence was estimated at 81.1% [95% CI 75.8–85.8]. Country, year of implementation or gender did not significantly modify the prevalence estimates. Lower level of education and degraded left ventricular ejection fraction decreased RTW prevalence estimates (respectively, 76.1% vs 85.6% and 65.3% vs 77.8%). RTW prevalence estimates were higher for white-collars (81.2% vs 65.0% for blue-collars) and people with low physical workload (78.3% vs 64.1% for elevated physical workload).Occupational physical constraints seem to have a negative role in RTW while psycho-logical factors at work are insufficiently investigated. A better understanding of the real-life working conditions influencing RTW would be useful to maintain coronary patients in the labor market.

Urbanization and systolic/diastolic blood pressure from a gender perspective: Separating longitudinal from cross-sectional association

There has been a generally negative view of the impact of urbanization on a rising burden of non-communicable diseases including cardiovascular disease. However, the evidence on the relationship between urbanization and cardiovascular health has remained inconclusive. A comprehensive picture of the relationship is lacking, given an implicit assumption that the longitudinal association between changes in cardiovascular health and an increasingly urbanized environment is similar between less and more urbanized communities, men and women. We used the longitudinal data on adults (18-64 years) from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1991-2015) and employed within-between random-effects models to disaggregates the longitudinal and cross-sectional associations between urbanization and systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) and examined heterogeneities in the longitudinal association by average urbanization level and gender. We found that the positive longitudinal association of urbanization with SBP/DBP was stronger in less urbanized than more urbanized communities. The cross-sectional association between urbanization and SBP was negative and significant, although the cross-sectional association between urbanization and DBP was of no statistical significance. Moreover, the positive longitudinal association between urbanization and DBP was stronger among men than women, although the gender heterogeneity in the longitudinal association of urbanization with SBP was not significant.

Socioeconomic inequalities in physiological risk biomarkers and the role of lifestyles among Russians aged 35-69 years

Background

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular (CVD) health outcomes are well documented. While Russia has one of the highest levels of CVD mortality in the world, the literature on contemporary socio-economic inequalities in biomarker CVD risk factors is sparse. This paper aims to assess the extent and the direction of SEP inequalities in established physiological CVD risk biomarkers, and to explore the role of lifestyle factors in explaining SEP inequalities in physiological CVD risk biomarkers.

Methods

We used cross-sectional data from a general population-based survey of Russians aged 35-69 years living in two cities (n = 4540, Know Your Heart study 2015-18). Logistic models were used to assess the associations between raised physiological risk biomarkers levels (blood pressure levels, cholesterol levels, triglycerides, HbA1C, and C-reactive protein) and socioeconomic position (SEP) (education and household financial constraints) adjusting for age, obesity, smoking, alcohol and health-care seeking behavior.

Results

High education was negatively associated with a raised risk of blood pressure (systolic and diastolic) and C-reactive protein for both men and women. High education was positively associated with total cholesterol, with higher HDL levels among women, and with low triglycerides and HbA1c levels among men. For the remaining risk biomarkers, we found little statistical support for SEP inequalities. Adjustment for lifestyle factors, and particularly BMI and waist-hip ratio, led to a reduction in the observed SEP inequalities in raised biomarkers risk levels, especially among women. High financial constraints were weakly associated with high risk biomarkers levels, except for strong evidence for an association with C-reactive protein (men).

Conclusions

Notable differences in risk biomarkers inequalities were observed according to the SEP measure employed. Clear educational inequalities in raised physiological risk biomarkers levels, particularly in blood pressure and C-reactive protein were seen in Russia and are partly explained by lifestyle factors, particularly obesity among women. These findings provide evidence-based information on the need for tackling health inequalities in the Russian population, which may help to further contribute to CVD mortality decline.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-022-01650-3.

County-Level Trends in Hypertension-Related Cardiovascular Disease Mortality-United States, 2000 to 2019

Background

Amid stagnating declines in national cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, documenting trends in county‐level hypertension‐related CVD death rates can help activate local efforts prioritizing hypertension prevention, detection, and control.

Methods and Results

Using death certificate data from the National Vital Statistics System, Bayesian spatiotemporal models were used to estimate county‐level hypertension‐related CVD death rates and corresponding trends during 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019 for adults aged ≥35 years overall and by age group, race or ethnicity, and sex. Among adults aged 35 to 64 years, county‐level hypertension‐related CVD death rates increased from a median of 23.2 per 100 000 in 2000 to 43.4 per 100 000 in 2019. Among adults aged ≥65 years, county‐level hypertension‐related CVD death rates increased from a median of 362.1 per 100 000 in 2000 to 430.1 per 100 000 in 2019. Increases were larger and more prevalent among adults aged 35 to 64 years than those aged ≥65 years. More than 75% of counties experienced increasing hypertension‐related CVD death rates among patients aged 35 to 64 years during 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019 (76.2% [95% credible interval, 74.7–78.4] and 86.2% [95% credible interval, 84.6–87.6], respectively), compared with 48.2% (95% credible interval, 47.0–49.7) during 2000 to 2010 and 66.1% (95% credible interval, 64.9–67.1) for patients aged ≥65 years. The highest rates for both age groups were among men and Black populations. All racial and ethnic categories in both age groups experienced widespread county‐level increases.

Conclusions

Large, widespread county‐level increases in hypertension‐related CVD mortality sound an alarm for intensified clinical and public health actions to improve hypertension prevention, detection, and control and prevent subsequent CVD deaths in counties across the nation.

Roles of Nutraceuticals and Functional Food in Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease

The chapter provides an overview of cardiovascular disease, a major cause of mortality worldwide. It relates economic and social impacts to the disease, especially in developing countries. One of the approaches to addressing this challenge is increasing awareness within society, through implementation of education programs. It is important for society to understand the types and roles of the risk factors leading to cardiovascular disease. Emphasis is on the role of functional food and nutraceuticals as dietary sources that could prevent development of cardiovascular disease. The chapter highlights roles of nutraceuticals and functional food sources from medical plants, seeds, berries, and tropical fruits in lowering risk factors. Key findings from trials conducted in Asia, China, Europe, and America provide supporting evidence for the importance of functional food to health, and its potential for modifying the level of risk factors related to cardiovascular diseases.

Declining Life Expectancy in the United States: Missing the Trees for the Forest

In recent years, life expectancy in the United States has stagnated, followed by three consecutive years of decline. The decline is small in absolute terms but is unprecedented and has generated considerable research interest and theorizing about potential causes. Recent trends show that the decline has affected nearly all race/ethnic and gender groups, and the proximate causes of the decline are increases in opioid overdose deaths, suicide, homicide, and Alzheimer's disease. A slowdown in the long-term decline in mortality from cardiovascular diseases has also prevented life expectancy from improving further. Although a popular explanation for the decline is the cumulative decline in living standards across generations, recent trends suggest that distinct mechanisms for specific causes of death are more plausible explanations. Interventions to stem the increase in overdose deaths, reduce access to mechanisms that contribute to violent deaths, and decrease cardiovascular risk over the life course are urgently needed to improve mortality in the United States.

Social Determinants in Machine Learning Cardiovascular Disease Prediction Models: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide, and cardiovascular disease burden is increasing in low-resource settings and for lower socioeconomic groups. Machine learning algorithms are being developed rapidly and incorporated into clinical practice for cardiovascular disease prediction and treatment decisions. Significant opportunities for reducing death and disability from cardiovascular disease worldwide lie with accounting for the social determinants of cardiovascular outcomes. This study reviews how social determinants of health are being included in machine learning algorithms to inform best practices for the development of algorithms that account for social determinants.

METHODS

A systematic review using 5 databases was conducted in 2020. English language articles from any location published from inception to April 10, 2020, which reported on the use of machine learning for cardiovascular disease prediction that incorporated social determinants of health, were included.

RESULTS

Most studies that compared machine learning algorithms and regression showed increased performance of machine learning, and most studies that compared performance with or without social determinants of health showed increased performance with them. The most frequently included social determinants of health variables were gender, race/ethnicity, marital status, occupation, and income. Studies were largely from North America, Europe, and China, limiting the diversity of the included populations and variance in social determinants of health.

DISCUSSION

Given their flexibility, machine learning approaches may provide an opportunity to incorporate the complex nature of social determinants of health. The limited variety of sources and data in the reviewed studies emphasize that there is an opportunity to include more social determinants of health variables, especially environmental ones, that are known to impact cardiovascular disease risk and that recording such data in electronic databases will enable their use.

Multiple Socioeconomic Circumstances and Initiation of Cardiovascular Medication among Ageing Employees

There are persisting socioeconomic differences in cardiovascular diseases, but studies on socioeconomic differences in the initiation of cardiovascular medication are scarce. This study examined the associations between multiple socioeconomic circumstances and cardiovascular medication. The Helsinki Health Study baseline survey (2000-2002) of 40-60-year-old employees was linked with cardiovascular medication data from national registers. The analyses included 5805 employees concerning lipid medication and 4872 employees concerning hypertension medication. Medication purchases were followed for 10 years. The analyses were made using logistic regression, and the odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for childhood, conventional and material socioeconomic circumstances. Low parental education showed an association with lipid medication among women only (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.11-1.61), whereas childhood economic difficulties showed more widespread associations. Low education and occupational class were associated with an increased risk of both hypertension (education: OR 1.58, 1.32-1.89; occupational class: 1.31, 1.08-1.59) and lipid medication (education: 1.34, 1.12-1.61; occupational class: 1.38, 1.13-1.67). Rented housing (1.35, 1.18-1.54 for hypertension medication; 1.21, 1.05-1.38 for lipid medication) and current economic difficulties (1.59, 1.28-1.98 for hypertension medication; 1.35, 1.07-1.71 for lipid medication) increased the risk. Several measures of socioeconomic circumstances acting at different stages of the life course were associated with cardiovascular medication, with individuals in disadvantageous socioeconomic circumstances having elevated risks.

Socioeconomic inequalities in prevalence and development of multimorbidity across adulthood: A longitudinal analysis of the MRC 1946 National Survey of Health and Development in the UK

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate multimorbidity trajectories and quantify socioeconomic inequalities based on childhood and adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) in the risks and rates of multimorbidity accumulation across adulthood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Participants from the UK 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) birth cohort study who attended the age 36 years assessment in 1982 and any one of the follow-up assessments at ages 43, 53, 63, and 69 years (N = 3,723, 51% males). Information on 18 health conditions was based on a combination of self-report, biomarkers, health records, and prescribed medications. We estimated multimorbidity trajectories and delineated socioeconomic inequalities (based on childhood and adulthood social class and highest education) in multimorbidity at each age and in longitudinal trajectories. Multimorbidity increased with age (0.7 conditions at 36 years to 3.7 at 69 years). Multimorbidity accumulation was nonlinear, accelerating with age at the rate of 0.08 conditions/year (95% CI 0.07 to 0.09, p < 0.001) at 36 to 43 years to 0.19 conditions/year (95% CI 0.18 to 0.20, p < 0.001) at 63 to 69 years. At all ages, the most socioeconomically disadvantaged had 1.2 to 1.4 times greater number of conditions on average compared to the most advantaged. The most disadvantaged by each socioeconomic indicator experienced an additional 0.39 conditions (childhood social class), 0.83 (adult social class), and 1.08 conditions (adult education) at age 69 years, independent of all other socioeconomic indicators. Adverse adulthood SEP was associated with more rapid accumulation of multimorbidity, resulting in 0.49 excess conditions in partly/unskilled compared to professional/intermediate individuals between 63 and 69 years. Disadvantaged childhood social class, independently of adulthood SEP, was associated with accelerated multimorbidity trajectories from age 53 years onwards. Study limitations include that the NSHD cohort is composed of individuals of white European heritage only, and findings may not be generalizable to the non-white British population of the same generation and did not account for other important dimensions of SEP such as income and wealth.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals have earlier onset and more rapid accumulation of multimorbidity resulting in widening inequalities into old age, with independent contributions from both childhood and adulthood SEP.

Socioeconomic inequalities in co-morbidity of overweight, obesity and mental ill-health from adolescence to mid-adulthood in two national birth cohort studies

AIM

To examine socioeconomic inequalities in comorbidity risk for overweight (including obesity) and mental ill-health in two national cohorts. We investigated independent effects of childhood and adulthood socioeconomic disadvantage on comorbidity from childhood to mid-adulthood, and differences by sex and cohort.

METHODS

Data were from 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS58) and 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) [total N=30,868, 51% males] assessed at ages 10, 16, 23/26, 34 and 42 years. Socioeconomic indicators included childhood and adulthood social class and educational level. Risk for i. having healthy BMI and mental ill-health, ii. overweight and good mental health, and iii. overweight and mental ill-health was analysed using multinomial logistic regression.

FINDINGS

Socioeconomic disadvantage was consistently associated with greater risk for overweight-mental ill-health comorbidity at all ages (RRR 1.43, 2.04, 2.38, 1.64 and 1.71 at ages 10, 16, 23, 34 and 42 respectively for unskilled/skilled vs. professional/managerial class). The observed inequalities in co-morbidity were greater than those observed for either condition alone (overweight; RRR 1.39 and 1.25, mental ill-health; 1.36 and 1.22 at ages 16 and 42 respectively, for unskilled/skilled vs. professional/managerial class). In adulthood, both childhood and adulthood socioeconomic disadvantage were independently associated with comorbid overweight-mental ill-health, with a clear inverse gradient between educational level and risk for comorbidity. For instance, for the no education group (compared to university education) the RRR is 6.11 (95% CI 4.31-8.65) at age 34 and 4.42 (3.28-5.96) at age 42. There were no differences observed in the extent of inequalities by sex and differences between cohorts were limited.

INTERPRETATION

While socioeconomic disadvantage in childhood and adulthood are consistently and independently associated with greater risk for mental ill-health and being overweight separately, these associations are even larger for their comorbidity across the lifecourse. These findings are significant given the increasing global prevalence of obesity and mental ill-health, and their implications for lifelong health and mortality.

FUNDING

This research was supported by grants from the Wellcome Trust (ISSF3/ H17RCO/NG1) and Medical Research Council (MRC) [MC_UU_00019/3].

Population with high cardiovascular risk receiving drug therapy and counseling: Brazil's status regarding the global goal, 2014-2015

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of high cardiovascular risk (CVR), the proportion of people with high CVR who receive treatment and counseling, and to investigate the sociodemographic factors associated with this outcome, in Brazil.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study, using subsample data from the National Health Survey, collected via biochemical tests, in 2014-2015. Poisson regression was used.

RESULTS

The proportion of high CVR in men was 11.2% (95%CI 9.6;12.9), and 10.4% (95%CI 9.2;11.8%) in women. In the group with high CVR, 68.8% (95%CI 63.7;73.4%) received counseling, 59.3% (95%CI 54.2;64.3%) received medication, and 55.6% (95%CI 50.4;60.7%) received both. In the multivariate analysis, receiving treatment and counseling was associated with being aged 50 years and over, and poor/very poor self-rated health (PR=1.26 - 95%CI 1.06;1.51).

CONCLUSION

The proportion of people with high CVR who had received treatment and counseling was over 50%.

Cardiovascular disease in people born to unmarried mothers in two historical periods: The Helsinki Birth Cohort Study 1934-1944

Aims:Socio-economic conditions in early life are important contributors to cardiovascular disease – the leading cause of mortality globally – in later life. We studied coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in adulthood among people born out of wedlock in two historical periods: before and during World War II in Finland. Methods: We compared offspring born out of wedlock before (1934–1939) and during (1940–1944) World War II with the offspring of married mothers in the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study. The war affected the position of unmarried mothers in society. We followed the study subjects from 1971 to 2014 and identified deaths and hospital admissions from CHD and stroke. Data were analysed using a Cox regression, adjusting for other childhood and adulthood socio-economic circumstances. Results: The rate of out-of-wedlock births was 240/4052 (5.9%) before World War II and 397/9197 (4.3%) during World War II. Among those born before World War II, out-of-wedlock birth was associated with an increased risk of stroke (hazard ratio (HR)=1.44; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00–2.07) and CHD (HR=1.37; 95% CI 1.02–1.86). Among those born out of wedlock during World War II, the risks of stroke (HR=0.89; 95% CI 0.58–1.36) and CHD (HR=0.70; 95% CI 0.48=1.03) were similar to those observed for the offspring of married mothers. The p-values for interaction of unmarried×World War II were (p=0.015) for stroke and (p=0.003) for CHD. Conclusions: In a society in which marriage is normative, being born out of wedlock is an important predictor of lifelong health disadvantage. However, this may change rapidly when societal circumstances change, such as during a war.

Cardiovascular Risk Estimates in Ten Years in the Brazilian Population, a Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality, resulting in high health costs and significant economic losses. The Framingham score has been widely used to stratify the cardiovascular risk of the individuals, identifying those at higher risk for the implementation of prevention measures directed to this group.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cardiovascular risk at 10 years in the adult Brazilian population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study using laboratory data from a subsample of the National Health Survey. To calculate cardiovascular risk, the Framingham score stratified by sex was used.

RESULTS

Most women (58.4%) had low cardiovascular risk, 32.9% had medium risk and 8.7% had high risk. Among men, 36.5% had low cardiovascular risk, 41.9% had medium risk and 21.6% had high risk. The risk increased with age and was high in the low-educated population. The proportion of the components of the Framingham model, by risk and sex, shows that, among women at high risk, the indicators that mostly contributed to cardiovascular risk were: systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL, diabetes and tobacco. Among men, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL, tobacco and diabetes.

CONCLUSION

The study estimates, for the first time in Brazil, the risk of developing cardiovascular disease in ten years. The risk score is useful to support the prevention practices of these diseases, considering the clinical and epidemiological context.

Bending the Curve in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Bethesda + 40 and Beyond

More than 40 years after the 1978 Bethesda Conference on the Declining Mortality from Coronary Heart Disease provided the scientific community with a blueprint for systematic analysis to understand declining rates of coronary heart disease, there are indications the decline has ended or even reversed despite advances in our knowledge about the condition and treatment. Recent data show a more complex situation, with mortality rates for overall cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke, decelerating, whereas those for heart failure are increasing. To mark the 40th anniversary of the Bethesda Conference, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the American Heart Association cosponsored the "Bending the Curve in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Bethesda + 40" symposium. The objective was to examine the immediate and long-term outcomes of the 1978 conference and understand the current environment. Symposium themes included trends and future projections in cardiovascular disease (in the United States and internationally), the evolving obesity and diabetes epidemics, and harnessing emerging and innovative opportunities to preserve and promote cardiovascular health and prevent cardiovascular disease. In addition, participant-led discussion explored the challenges and barriers in promoting cardiovascular health across the lifespan and established a potential framework for observational research and interventions that would begin in early childhood (or ideally in utero). This report summarizes the relevant research, policy, and practice opportunities discussed at the symposium.

Changing Spatiotemporal Trends in County-Level Heart Failure Death Rates in the United States, 1999 to 2018

Background

Amid recently rising heart failure (HF) death rates in the United States, we describe county‐level trends in HF mortality from 1999 to 2018 by racial/ethnic group and sex for ages 35 to 64 years and 65 years and older.

Methods and Results

Applying a hierarchical Bayesian model to National Vital Statistics data representing all US deaths, ages 35 years and older, we estimated annual age‐standardized county‐level HF death rates and percent change by age group, racial/ethnic group, and sex from 1999 through 2018. During 1999 to 2011, ~30% of counties experienced increasing HF death rates among adults ages 35 to 64 years. However, during 2011 to 2018, 86.9% (95% CI, 85.2–88.2) of counties experienced increasing mortality. Likewise, for ages 65 years and older, during 1999 to 2005 and 2005 to 2011, 27.8% (95% CI, 25.8–29.8) and 12.6% (95% CI, 11.2–13.9) of counties, respectively, experienced increasing mortality. However, during 2011 to 2018, most counties (67.4% [95% CI, 65.4–69.5]) experienced increasing mortality. These temporal patterns by age group held across racial/ethnic group and sex.

Conclusions

These results provide local context to previously documented recent national increases in HF death rates. Although county‐level declines were most common before 2011, some counties and demographic groups experienced increasing HF death rates during this period of national declines. However, recent county‐level increases were pervasive, occurring across counties, racial/ethnic group, and sex, particularly among ages 35 to 64 years. These spatiotemporal patterns highlight the need to identify and address underlying clinical risk factors and social determinants of health contributing to these increasing trends.

Decomposing Race and Ethnic Differences in CVD Risk Factors for Mid-life Women

OBJECTIVE

This study decomposes race and ethnic differences in hypertension, waist circumference, obesity and allostatic load between black non-Hispanic (BNH), Mexican American (MA), and white non-Hispanic (WNH) women.

DATA

This study uses 10,109 observations from The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from years 1999-2014 for BNH, MA women, and WNH between 40 and 75 years old.

METHODOLOGY

We used the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to explore how demographic, socioeconomic, healthcare access, and health behavior factors are associated with race and ethnic differences in blood pressure, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), and allostatic load score (ALS).

RESULTS

We found that demographic factors, socioeconomic status, healthcare access, and health behaviors explained from 0 to 50% of the difference in CVD risk factors between BNH and WNH. However, these factors explain from 39 to 100% of the difference in CVD risk factors between MA and WNH. Differences in demographic, socioeconomic, access to care, and health behavior factor variables explained very little of the differences in CVD risk factors between NHB and MA women.

CONCLUSION

The impact of the determinants on CVD risk factors varies by race and ethnicity. Efforts to address differences in CVD risk factors should promote health equity programs and acknowledge that even race and ethnic groups that have similar demographic, SES, access to care, and health behavior factors can have different outcomes.

Socioeconomic position and cardiovascular mortality in 63 million adults from Brazil

BACKGROUND

It has been suggested that cardiovascular disease exhibits a 'social cross-over', from greater risk in higher socioeconomic groups to lower socioeconomic groups, on economic development, but robust evidence is lacking. We used standardised data to compare the social inequalities in cardiovascular mortality across states at varying levels of economic development in Brazil.

METHODS

We used national census and mortality data from 2010. We used age-adjusted multilevel Poisson regression to estimate the association between educational status and cardiovascular mortality by state-level economic development (assessed by quintiles of Human Development Index).

RESULTS

In 2010, there were 185 383 cardiovascular deaths among 62.5 million adults whose data were analysed. The age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rate ratio for women with <8 years of education (compared with 8+ years) was 3.75 (95% CI 3.29 to 4.28) in the least developed one-fifth of states and 2.84 (95% CI 2.75 to 2.92) in the most developed one-fifth of states (p value for linear trend=0.002). Among men, corresponding rate ratios were 2.53 (95% CI 2.32 to 2.77) and 2.26 (95% CI 2.20 to 2.31), respectively (p value=0.258). Associations were similar across subtypes of cardiovascular disease (ischaemic heart disease and stroke) and robust to the size of geographical unit used for analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results do not support a 'social crossover' in cardiovascular mortality on economic development. Our analyses, based on a large standardised dataset from a country that is currently experiencing economic transition, provide strong evidence that low socioeconomic groups experience the highest risk of cardiovascular disease, irrespective of the stage of national economic development.

Prevalence of high risk for cardiovascular disease among the Brazilian adult population, according to different risk calculators: a comparative study

This study compares the proportion of the Brazilian adult population classified as being at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on six different CVD risk calculators in order to assess the agreement across different tools. A cross-sectional study was conducted using laboratory data from the National Health Survey (NHS). The prevalence rates of high 10-year risk of CVD among individuals aged between 45 and 64 years were as follows: Brazilian Society of Cardiology (BSC) global risk score (GRS) - 38.1%; American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) score - 44.1%; Framingham Heart Study/GRS - 19.4%; European Society of Cardiology SCORE - 14.6%; World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) score - 3.1%; and Lim et al. - 2.5%. The CVD calculators showed poor agreement for the identification of high-risk individuals and a high level of agreement for the identification of low/moderate risk individuals, except for the ACC/AHA risk score. The findings show that the proportion of individuals classified as eligible for preventive drug therapy varies from tool to tool, which could lead to the misinterpretation of risk, poor cost-effectiveness of therapy and difficulty implementing public policies.

Production of Vegetables and Artichokes Is Associated with Lower Cardiovascular Mortality: An Ecological Study

Mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD), including cerebrovascular disease (CED) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD), was considerably different in eight municipalities of the province of Castellón, Community of Valencia (Spain) during the period of 1991-2011. In addition, these villages showed differences in agricultural practices and production. Since high vegetable consumption has been linked to decreased all-cause, CVD, and CED mortalities, we hypothesized that the diversity in vegetable and artichoke production, used as proxies for their consumption, could be associated with the diversity of mortality rates. In order to test our hypothesis, we estimated the smoothed standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of CVD, CED, and IHD mortalities and a directed, age-adjusted mortality rate (AMR). We used a multilevel linear regression analysis to account for the ecological nature of our study. After adjustment, the CVD and CED SMRs were inversely associated with vegetable and artichoke production, with a reduction in SMRs for CVD: -0.19 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] -0.31 to -0.07) and -0.42 (95% CI -0.70 to -0.15) per hectare/10³ inhabitants, respectively. The SMRs for CED also decreased: -0.68 (95% CI -1.61 to -0.19) and -1.47 (95% CI -2.57 to -0.36) per hectare/10³ inhabitants, respectively. The SMRs for IHD were not associated with vegetal and artichoke production. When the directed AMR was used, CED mortality was consistent with the previous results, whereas the CVD mortality association was lost. Our results indicate that vegetable and artichoke production may act as protective factors of CED and CVD mortalities.

Associations between social determinants and the presence of chronic diseases: data from the osteoarthritis Initiative

BACKGROUND

Some studies investigated the relationship between musculoskeletal conditions and chronic diseases. However, no study examined the association between social determinants and chronic diseases among people at high risk for knee osteoarthritis. Thus, the current study was aimed to address this gap.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis was conducted on a total of 3280 men and women aged 45 to 79 who were recruited in the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

RESULTS

Multivariable logistic regression analyses show that age ≥ 65 years was associated with 1.98, 1.96, and 1.46 times odds of the presence of diabetes, heart attack, and multi-morbidity, respectively than age ≤ 64 years. Men were associated with 1.39, 1.41, 1.76, and 2.24 times odds of the presence of arthritis, cancer, diabetes, and heart attack, respectively than women. African American/Asian/ non-Caucasian was associated with 2.71, 2.56, and 1.93 times odds of the presence of arthritis, diabetes, and heart attack, respectively than Caucasian. Primary school/less education was associated with twice or more times the odds of arthritis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) than ≥high school education. Unemployment was associated with 1.41-, 1.73-, 1.58-, and 1.70-time odds of the presence of arthritis, cancer, COPD, and heart attack, respectively, then employed. Unmarried/widowed/separated was associated with 1.41, 1.75, 2.77, 2.76, 1.86, and 3.34 times odds of the presence of arthritis, asthma, cancer, COPD, diabetes, and heart attack, respectively than married. Annual income < 50,000 was associated with 1.33-, 1.44-, and 1.38-time odds of the presence of arthritis, diabetes, and multi-morbidity, respectively, then annual income ≥50,000. Overweight/obese was associated with 2.28 times the odds of the presence of diabetes than healthy weight. Current/former smoker was associated with 1.57, 2.47, 2.53, 1.63, and 1.24 times odds of the presence of arthritis, cancer, COPD, heart attack, and multi-morbidity, respectively than a nonsmoker. Consuming alcohol was associated with 1.32-, 1.65-, 1.50-, and 1.24-time odds of the presence of arthritis, COPD, diabetes, and multi-morbidity, respectively, then nonalcoholic.

CONCLUSIONS

Social determinants are associated with the presence of chronic diseases. Some of the social determinants are modifiable or treatable. Thus, these findings can inform public health strategies in the United States.

Historic and recent trends in county-level coronary heart disease death rates by race, gender, and age group, United States, 1979-2017

Given recent slowing of declines in national all-cause, heart disease, and stroke mortality, examining spatiotemporal distributions of coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates and trends can provide data critical to improving the cardiovascular health of populations. This paper documents county-level CHD death rates and trends by age group, race, and gender from 1979 through 2017. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System and a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model, we estimated county-level age-standardized annual CHD death rates for 1979 through 2017 by age group (35–64 years, 65 years and older), race (white, black, other), and gender (men, women). We then estimated county-level total percent change in CHD death rates during four intervals (1979–1990, 1990–2000, 2000–2010, 2010–2017) using log-linear regression models. For all intervals, national CHD death rates declined for all groups. Prior to 2010, although most counties across age, race, and gender experienced declines, pockets of increasing CHD death rates were observed in the Mississippi Delta, Oklahoma, East Texas, and New Mexico across age groups and gender, and were more prominent among non-white populations than whites. Since 2010, across age, race, and gender, county-level declines in CHD death rates have slowed, with a marked increase in the percent of counties with increasing CHD death rates (e.g. 4.4% and 19.9% for ages 35 and older during 1979–1990 and 2010–2017, respectively). Recent increases were especially prevalent and geographically widespread among ages 35–64 years, with 40.5% of counties (95% CI: 38.4, 43.1) experiencing increases. Spatiotemporal differences in these long term, county-level results can inform responses by the public health community, medical providers, researchers, and communities to address troubling recent trends.

Association of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundations' social determinants of health and Medicare hospitalisations for ischaemic strokes: a cross-sectional data analysis

Objective

Social determinants of health (SDH) have previously demonstrated to be important risk factors in determining health outcomes. To document whether the SDH are associated with hospitalisations for ischaemic stroke.

Methods

This cross-sectional study examines data from fiscal year 2015. Patients from the national Medicare 100% Inpatient Limited Dataset were linked with SDH measures from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) County Health Rankings. Medicare patients were included in the study group if they had either an admitting or primary diagnosis of ischaemic stroke. Counties without RWJF data were excluded from the study. Ischaemic strokes were compared with all other hospitalisations associated with characteristics of the SDH measures and benchmarked to above or below their respective national median. Estimates were performed with nested logistic regression.

Results

Approximately 256 766 Medicare patients had ischaemic stroke hospitalisations compared with all other Medicare patients (n=6 386 180) without ischaemic stroke hospitalisations while 30 853 patients were excluded due to residence in US territories. Significant factors included air pollution exceeding the national median (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.07), per cent of children in single parent households exceeding the national median, (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03), violent crime rates exceeding the national median, (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03) and per cent smoking exceeding the national median, (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03).

Conclusions

When cross-sectional SDH are benchmarked to national median for ischaemic stroke hospitalisations and compared with all-cause hospitalisations, the effects remain significant. Further research on the longitudinal effects of the SDH and cardiovascular health, particularly disease-specific outcomes, is needed.

Stable socioeconomic inequalities in ischaemic heart disease mortality during the economic crisis: a time trend analysis in 2 Spanish settings

Background

Prior studies have identified a decrease in ischaemic heart disease mortality during the recent economic recession. The Spanish population was severely affected by the Great Recession, however, there is little evidence on its effects on socioeconomic inequalities in ischaemic heart disease mortality. This study examines trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD).

Methods

We used linked census records with mortality registers available from the Basque Country and Barcelona city for population above 25 years, between 2001 and 04, the accelerated economic growth period of 2005–08, and 2009–12, with the last period coinciding with the Great Recession. Applying Poisson models, we calculated relative and absolute indexes of inequalities by education level for each period, age group, gender, and site.

Results

We found moderate age-adjusted inequalities in IHD with a gradient of increasing rates through less educational level, but no significant evidence of increasing trends in socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality, rather an inverted U-shape time trend in some groups below 75 years in relative inequalities. Absolute inequalities decrease in the last period except for women from 50 to 64 years.

Conclusions

This study shows that the economic crisis has not increased socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality in two geographical settings in Spain.

Social Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease among Michigan Residents: A Call to Action for Population Health Initiatives

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about the cardiovascular health (CVH) and social determinants of cardiovascular diseases (SDCVDs) among Michigan residents by race and ethnicity. Therefore, the objective of this cross-sectional study was to determine the CVH of Michigan residents and to examine the relationship between CVH and SDCVDs by race/ethnicity and age.

METHODOLOGY

Michigan-level data consisting of 10,889 participants was extracted from the 2017 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data. Descriptive statistics examined the adjusted proportions of the CVH measures and determined the adjusted mean CVH score for the SDCVDs among racial/ethnic groups by age. Generalized ordinal logistic regression analyses assessed the relationship between residents' CVH and SDCVDs by racial/ethnic status. All analyses were performed using STATA MP14.

RESULTS

Residents from each racial/ethnic group did not meet the criteria for ideal BMI. The mean CVH score was found to be low for Black (2.65; 95% CI, 2.41-2.89) and Hispanic (2.84; 95% CI, 2.29-3.40) residents ≥ 50 years old with a high school degree or less. Black residents unemployed for more than a year were less likely to have a high CVH score (OR = 0.45; 95% CI, 0.21-80.97) compared with Black residents employed for wages.

CONCLUSION

Michigan residents' CVH is lacking across multiple dimensions. Multifaceted population health initiatives are warranted to address influential SDCVDs to diminish the CVH disparities identified across racial/ethnic and age groups.

Effect of Physical Activity on Hospital Service Use and Expenditures of Patients with Coronary Heart Disease: Results from Dongfeng-Tongji Cohort Study in China

The intervention of behaviors, including physical activity (PA), has become a strategy for many hospitals dealing with patients with chronic diseases. Given the limited evidence available about PA and healthcare use with chronic diseases, this study explored the association between different levels of PA and annual hospital service use and expenditure for inpatients with coronary heart disease (CHD) in China. We analyzed PA information from the first follow-up survey (2013) of the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study of 1460 CHD inpatients. We examined factors such as PA exercise volume and years of PA and their associations with the number of inpatient visits, number of hospital days, and inpatient costs and total medical costs. We found that the number of hospital days and the number of inpatient visits were negatively associated with intensity of PA level. Similarly, total inpatient and outpatient costs declined when the PA exercise volume levels increased. Furthermore, there were also significant associations between the number of hospital days, inpatient costs or total medical costs and levels of PA years. This study provides the first empirical evidence about the effects of the intensity and years of PA on hospital service use and expenditure of CHD in China. It suggests that the patients' PA, especially the vigorous PA, should be promoted widely to the public and patients in order to relieve the financial burden of CHD.

Association of income and health-related quality of life in atrial fibrillation

Objective

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a patient-centred benchmark promoted by clinical guidelines in atrial fibrillation (AF). Income is associated with health outcomes, but how income effects HRQoL in AF has limited investigation.

Methods

We enrolled a convenience cohort with AF receiving care at a regional healthcare system and assessed demographics, medical history, AF treatment, income, education and health literacy. We defined income as a categorical variable (<$20 000; $20 000-$49 999; $50 000-$99 999; >$100 000). We used two complementary HRQoL measures: (1) the atrial fibrillation effect on quality of life (AFEQT), measuring composite and domain scores (daily activity, symptoms, treatment concerns, treatment satisfaction; range 0-100); (2) the 12-item Short Form Survey (SF-12), measuring general HRQoL with physical and mental health domains (range 0-100). We related income to HRQoL and adjusted for relevant covariates.

Results

In 295 individuals with AF (age 71±10, 40% women), we observed significant differences in HRQoL by income. Higher mean composite AFEQT scores were observed for higher income groups: participants with income <$20 000 had the lowest HRQoL (n=35, 68.2±21.4), and those with income >$100 000 had the highest HRQoL (n=64, 81.9±17.0; p=0.04). We also observed a significant difference by income in the AFEQT daily activity domain (p=0.02). Lower income was also associated with lower HRQoL in the mental health composite score of the SF-12 (59.7±21.5, income <$20 000 vs 79.3±16.3, income >$100 000; p<0.01).

Conclusion

We determined that income was associated with HRQoL in a cohort with prevalent AF. Given the marked differences, we consider income as essential for understanding patient-centred outcomes in AF.