Sino-MONICA project: a collaborative study on trends and determinants in cardiovascular diseases in China, Part i: morbidity and mortality monitoring

Effectiveness of treat-to-target cholesterol-lowering interventions on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risk in the community-dwelling population: a target trial emulation

Little is known about the long-term effectiveness of risk-based treat-to-target cholesterol-lowering interventions on cardiovascular risk. Here, we show the emulated effectiveness of guideline-recommended low-density and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering interventions using the absolute risk reduction (ARR) and the restricted mean event-free time-based number needed to treat (NNT). With 5,375 participants, the 29-year risks for cardiovascular disease (CVD), all-cause mortality, and atherosclerotic CVD were 18.6%, 25.6%, and 17.7%, respectively. Long-term treat-to-target interventions showed significant reductions in CVD (ARR -2.3%, 95%CI -3.4% to -0.8%; NNT 115), all-cause mortality (-3.0%, -4.3% to -1.8%; 95), and atherosclerotic CVD (-2.6%, -3.5% to -1.2%; 104). Such effects appear more pronounced in women, smokers, and those with body mass index < 24 kg/m² or higher adherence rates.

Predictive etiological classification of acute ischemic stroke through interpretable machine learning algorithms: a multicenter, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The prognosis, recurrence rates, and secondary prevention strategies varied significantly among different subtypes of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Machine learning (ML) techniques can uncover intricate, non-linear relationships within medical data, enabling the identification of factors associated with etiological classification. However, there is currently a lack of research utilizing ML algorithms for predicting AIS etiology.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to use interpretable ML algorithms to develop AIS etiology prediction models, identify critical factors in etiology classification, and enhance existing clinical categorization.

METHODS

This study involved patients with the Third China National Stroke Registry (CNSR-III). Nine models, which included Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and logistic regression (LR), were employed to predict large artery atherosclerosis (LAA), small vessel occlusion (SVO), and cardioembolism (CE) using an 80:20 randomly split training and test set. We designed an SFS-XGB with 10-fold cross-validation for feature selection. The primary evaluation metrics for the models included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination and the Brier score (or calibration plots) for calibration.

RESULTS

A total of 5,213 patients were included, comprising 2,471 (47.4%) with LAA, 2,153 (41.3%) with SVO, and 589 (11.3%) with CE. In both LAA and SVO models, the AUC values of the ML models were significantly higher than that of the LR model (P < 0.001). The optimal model for predicting SVO (AUC [RF model] = 0.932) outperformed the optimal LAA model (AUC [NGB model] = 0.917) and the optimal CE model (AUC [LGBM model] = 0.846). Each model displayed relatively satisfactory calibration. Further analysis showed that the optimal CE model could identify potential CE patients in the undetermined etiology (SUE) group, accounting for 1,900 out of 4,156 (45.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

The ML algorithm effectively classified patients with LAA, SVO, and CE, demonstrating superior classification performance compared to the LR model. The optimal ML model can identify potential CE patients among SUE patients. These newly identified predictive factors may complement the existing etiological classification system, enabling clinicians to promptly categorize stroke patients' etiology and initiate optimal strategies for secondary prevention.

Independent Relationship of Lipoprotein(a) and Carotid Atherosclerosis With Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) is considered to be a causal risk factor of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), but whether there is an independent or joint association of Lp(a) and atherosclerotic plaque with ASCVD risk remains uncertain. This study aims to assess ASCVD risk independently or jointly conferred by Lp(a) and carotid atherosclerotic plaque.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 5471 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline were recruited and followed up for ASCVD events (all fatal and nonfatal acute coronary and ischemic stroke events) over a median of 11.5 years. Independent association of Lp(a), or the joint association of Lp(a) and carotid plaque with ASCVD risk, was explored using Cox proportional hazards models. Overall, 7.6% of the participants (60.0±7.9 years of age; 2649 [48.4%] men) had Lp(a) ≥50 mg/dL, and 539 (8.4/1000 person-years) incident ASCVD events occurred. Lp(a) concentrations were independently associated with long-term risk of total ASCVD events, as well as coronary events and ischemic stroke events. Participants with Lp(a) ≥50 mg/dL had a 62% higher risk of ASCVD incidence (95% CI, 1.19-2.21) than those with Lp(a) <10 mg/dL, and they exhibited a 10-year ASCVD incidence of 11.7%. This association exists even after adjusting for prevalent plaque. Moreover, participants with Lp(a) ≥30 mg/dL and prevalent plaque had a significant 4.18 times higher ASCVD risk than those with Lp(a) <30 mg/dL and no plaque.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher Lp(a) concentrations are independently associated with long-term ASCVD risk and may exaggerate cardiovascular risk when concomitant with atherosclerotic plaque.

Association of neighborhood physical activity facilities with incident cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

The availability of physical activity (PA) facilities in neighborhoods is hypothesized to influence cardiovascular disease (CVD), but evidence from individual-level long-term cohort studies is limited. We aimed to assess the association between neighborhood exposure to PA facilities and CVD incidence.

METHODS

A total of 4658 participants from the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study without CVD at baseline (2007-2008) were followed for the incidence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. Availability of PA facilities was defined as both the presence and the density of PA facilities within a 500-m buffer zone around the participants' residential addresses. Time-dependent Cox regression models were performed to estimate the associations between the availability of PA facilities and risks of incident CVD, CHD, and stroke.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, there were 518 CVD events, 188 CHD events, and 355 stroke events. Analyses with the presence indicator revealed significantly lower risks of CVD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.80, 95% confidence interval ([CI] 0.65-0.99) and stroke (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60-0.97) in participants with PA facilities in the 500-m buffer zone compared with participants with no nearby facilities in fully adjusted models. In analyses with the density indicator, exposure to 2 and ≥ 3 PA facilities was associated with 35% (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.47-0.91) and 28% (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56-0.92) lower risks of CVD and 40% (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.40-0.90) and 38% (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.46-0.84) lower risks of stroke compared with those without any PA facilities in 500-m buffer, respectively. Effect modifications between presence of PA facilities and a history of hypertension for incident stroke (P = 0.049), and a history of diabetes for incident CVD (P = 0.013) and stroke (P = 0.009) were noted.

CONCLUSIONS

Residing in neighborhoods with better availability of PA facilities was associated with a lower risk of incident CVD. Urban planning intervention policies that increase the availability of PA facilities could contribute to CVD prevention.

Prognostic models for survival and consciousness in patients with primary brainstem hemorrhage

Objectives

Primary brainstem hemorrhage (PBSH) is one of the most catastrophic spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage diseases, with a mortality rate of 70-80%. We explored the predictive factors for survival and consciousness in patients with PBSH (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT04910490).

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed 211 patients with PBSH admitted to our institution between January 2014 and October 2020. Clinical outcomes included the 30-day survival rate and the 90-day consciousness rate as evaluated by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed.

Results

The overall 30-day survival rate of 211 patients with PBSH was 70%. Several predictive factors including hematoma volume, hematoma location, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) upon admission, and therapeutic strategy were significantly related to 30-day survival. Compared with conservative treatment, stereotactic aspiration in our prediction model is strongly associated with improved 30-day survival (odds ratio, 6.67; 95% confidence interval, 3.13-14.29; P < 0.001). The prognosis prediction model of 90-day consciousness including factors such as mydriasis, APTT value, hematoma location, and hematoma volume upon admission has a good predictive effect (AUC, 0.835; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.89; P < 0.001).

Conclusion

In patients with PBSH, conscious state upon admission, coagulation function, hematoma volume, hematoma location, and therapeutic strategy were significantly associated with prognosis. Stereotactic aspiration could significantly reduce the 30-day mortality rate.

Five-Year Clinical Outcomes After XIENCE PRIME Everolimus Elution Coronary Stent System (EECSS) Implantation

Background/aim: This study was aimed at evaluating 5-year effectiveness and safety in participants after XIENCE PRIME Everolimus Elution Coronary Stent System (EECSS) implantation.

Materials and methods: From December 2013 to May 2014, 108 patients (127 lesions) were treated with the XIENCE PRIME EECSS. The entire follow-up included annual assessments for 5 years after treatment or until one of the clinical endpoints was reached. We evaluated the 5-year clinical outcomes with Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Cox regression model.

Results: Nearly three-quarters of the participants were men (76.8%), and the average age was 65.6 ± 10.8 years. Bifurcation lesions accounted for 96.1% (122 lesions), and left main lesions accounted for 3.9% (five lesions), with a total count of 127 lesions. The cumulative rate of major adverse cardiac events was as follows: 1 year, 1.9%; 2 year, 4.0%; and 5 year, 10.0%. No definite or probable stent thrombosis was observed, and the rate of target lesion failure was only 3.3% over 5 years. The cumulative rate of major bleeding eventually increased to only 4.4%.

Conclusions: The 5-year clinical outcomes were favorable in patients treated with XIENCE PRIME EECSS, and the incidence of stent thrombosis and target lesion failure was relatively low. The incidence of major bleeding gradually increased but remained moderate.

Predictive Value of the Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction (ACEF) Score in Cardiovascular Disease among Middle-Aged Population

PURPOSE

To explore the predictive value of ACEF scores for identifying the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population.

METHODS

A total of 8613 participants without a history of CVD were enrolled in the follow-up. The endpoint was CVD incidence, defined as stroke or coronary heart disease (CHD) diagnosed during the follow-up period. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with respect to the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) scores and CVD. A Kaplan-Meier curve was used to analyze the probability of CVD in different quartiles of ACEF. Restricted cubic spline was used to further explore whether the relationship between ACEF and CVD was linear. Finally, we assessed the discriminatory ability of ACEF for CVD using C-statistics, net reclassification index, and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 4.66 years, 388 participants were diagnosed with CVD. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that ACEF was associated with CVD, and participants with high ACEF scores were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with CVD compared to participants with low ACEF scores in the general population. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the adjusted HRs for four quartiles of ACEF were as follows: the first quartile was used as a reference; the second quartile: HR = 2.33; the third quartile: HR = 4.81; the fourth quartile: HR = 8.00. Moreover, after adding ACEF to the original risk prediction model, we observed that new models had higher C-statistic values of CVD than the traditional model. Furthermore, the results of both NRI and IDI were positive, indicating that ACEF enhanced the prediction of CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that the ACEF score was associated with CVD in the general population in northeastern China. Furthermore, ACEF could be a new tool for identifying patients at high risk of primary CVD in the general population.

Associations of Hypertriglyceridemia Onset Age With Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in Adults: A Cohort Study

Background Limited studies have involved new-onset hypertriglyceridemia, and this study was to evaluate the associations of hypertriglyceridemia onset age with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause mortality. Methods and Results This population-based prospective study enrolled 98 779 participants free of hypertriglyceridemia and CVD at baseline in the Kailuan study initiated in June 2006. All participants underwent health checkups biennially until December 2017, and a total of 13 832 participants developed new hypertriglyceridemia. A 1:1 age- (±1 year) and sex-matched analysis was applied to select control subject of the same year for each new-onset case. There were 13 056 case-control pairs included. The total follow-up time was 179 409 person-years, with a median follow-up time of 7.0 years. Primary outcomes were CVD and all-cause mortality, and hazard ratios were estimated after adjustment for baseline characteristics. A total of 807 incident CVD events and 600 all-cause mortality events were documented. After multivariable adjustment, participants with hypertriglyceridemia onset age <45 years had the highest risk compared with matched controls, with hazard ratios of 2.61 (95% CI, 1.59-4.27) for CVD, 4.69 (95% CI, 2.34-9.40) for all-cause mortality, 2.23 (95% CI, 0.67-7.38) for myocardial infarction, and 2.68 (95% CI, 1.56-4.62) for stroke. The risk estimates gradually decreased with each decade increase in the onset age of hypertriglyceridemia. Conclusions Among Chinese adults, hypertriglyceridemia identified at an earlier onset age was associated with higher risks for CVD and all-cause mortality.

Association of Serum Potassium Levels with Mortality and Cardiovascular Events: Findings from the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Dyskalemia involves critical electrolyte abnormalities and increases mortality risk in patients with acute clinical conditions. However, the association between dyskalemia and adverse outcomes in the general population is less well established.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of serum potassium levels with mortality and cardiovascular events in the general population and to explore the characteristics of individuals at high risk.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 5220 participants aged 50-79 years in the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study.

MAIN MEASURES

Serum potassium levels were measured by the ion-selective electrode method. The outcomes were incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), CVD death, non-CVD death, and total death.

KEY RESULTS

Of the 5220 participants, 48.2% were men, and the mean age was 62.3 (SD 7.6) years. Hyperkalemia was found in 8.7% of the participants and was significantly associated with total death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-2.23) and CVD death (HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.25-3.61) after adjustment. Furthermore, the HRs (95% CIs) of hyperkalemia combined with 2 and ≥ 3 risk factors were 2.37 (1.50-3.74) and 4.06 (2.37-6.95) for total death and 3.26 (1.56-6.80) and 8.42 (4.06-17.50) for CVD death, respectively. The 10-year cumulative incidence of total death was 17.4% for participants with 2 or more risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Hyperkalemia is associated with an increased risk of all-cause and CVD death, and this risk is more pronounced in patients with multiple risk factors. Our findings suggest that early identification and management of hyperkalemia in the general population are warranted.

Balloon Angioplasty vs. Stenting for Symptomatic Intracranial Arterial Stenosis

Aims

We performed a meta-analysis to indirectly compare the treatment effectiveness of balloon angioplasty and stenting for patients with intracranial arterial stenosis.

Methods

Literature searches were performed in well-known databases to identify eligible studies published before January 04, 2021. The incidence of restenosis, transient ischemic attack (TIA), stroke, death, and dissection after balloon angioplasty or stenting were pooled. An indirect comparison of balloon angioplasty vs. stenting was performed, and the ratios of incidence (RIs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the random-effects model.

Results

120 studies that recruited 10,107 patients with intracranial arterial stenosis were included. The pooled incidence of restenosis after balloon angioplasty and stenting were 13% (95%CI: 8-17%) and 11% (95%CI: 9-13%), respectively, with no significant difference between them (RI: 1.18; 95%CI: 0.78–1.80; P = 0.435). Moreover, the pooled incidence of TIA after balloon angioplasty and stenting was 3% (95%CI: 0–6%) and 4% (95%CI: 3%-5%), and no significant difference was observed (RI: 0.75; 95%CI: 0.01–58.53; P = 0.897). The pooled incidence of stroke after balloon angioplasty and stenting was 7% (95%CI: 5–9%) and 8% (95%CI: 7–9%), respectively, and the difference between groups was found to be statistically insignificant (RI: 0.88; 95%CI: 0.64–1.20; P = 0.413). Additionally, the pooled incidence of death after balloon angioplasty and stenting was 2% (95%CI: 1–4%) and 2% (95%CI: 1–2%), with no significant difference between groups (RI: 1.00; 95%CI: 0.44–2.27; P = 1.000). Finally, the pooled incidence of dissection after balloon angioplasty and stenting was 13% (95%CI: 5–22%) and 3% (95%CI: 2–5%), respectively, and balloon angioplasty was associated with a higher risk of dissection than that with stenting for patients with intracranial arterial stenosis (RI: 4.33; 95%CI: 1.81–10.35; P = 0.001).

Conclusion

This study found that the treatment effectiveness of balloon angioplasty and stenting were similar for patients with symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis.

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Potential Risk Factor in China: A Multi-Dimensional Assessment by a Grey Relational Approach

Objectives: This study aims to investigate the impact of hypertension, diabetes, and high blood cholesterol on increased mortality from cardiovascular diseases such as coronary heart disease, stroke, and pulmonary heart disease in a multi-dimensional way. Methods: The grey relational analysis methodology is adopted to assess the connection between cardiac risk factors and related mortality. The Hurwicz and the Conservative (Min-Max) criterion approach are also utilized to identify the prospective risk factor that contributes the most to increased cardiac mortality. Results: The findings reveal that hypertension has a more grounded relationship with stroke and pulmonary heart disease mortality, whereas high blood cholesterol appears to be the leading contributor to deaths from coronary heart disease. The results based on the Hurwicz and the Min-Max criterion show a robust connection between dyslipidemia, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease mortality. Conclusion: Combating uncontrolled blood cholesterol and blood pressure levels would necessitate a multi-pronged strategy at both the national and local levels. Besides, the suggested methodologies provide a valuable tool and additional practical knowledge for public health policymakers and decision-makers in drawing rational decisions to combat China's rising CVD burden.

Geographical Disparities in Pooled Stroke Incidence and Case Fatality in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Geographical variations in stroke incidence and case fatality in China have been reported. Nonetheless, pooled estimates in major Chinese regions are unknown.

Objective

This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to investigate pooled estimates of incidence and short-term case fatality of stroke in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao.

Methods

Longitudinal studies published in English and indexed in PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science, or in Chinese and indexed in SinoMed and CQVIP will be targeted. Articles reporting on adults living in China who experience first-ever stroke or die within 1 year from newly onset stroke will be included. The 95% confidence intervals of the event will be estimated using the exact method based on the Poisson distribution. The log incidence rates together with their corresponding log standard errors will be meta-analyzed using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. Pooled case fatality rates will also be estimated using a random effect model. Time trends in pooled age-standardized stroke incidence and case fatality will be estimated. The heterogeneity of the included studies will be measured using the I² statistic and meta-regressions will be run to analyze the effect of reported covariates on found heterogeneity. Risk of bias will be examined using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Publication bias will be tested using funnel plots and Egger tests. Sensitivity analysis will be run by risk of bias.

Results

This study was funded and registered in 2020. The systematic searches, study selections, and quality assessments were completed in July 2021. Data extraction and analysis and manuscript writing are scheduled to be completed by December 2021.

Conclusions

This will be the first study to provide regional differences in pooled estimates of stroke incidence with case fatality in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao. This study will assist in addressing inequalities in stroke care across China.

Trial Registration

PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42020170724; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=170724

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/32566

Trends in Regional Disparity in Cardiovascular Mortality in Korea, 1983–2019

Mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) had been significantly improved in several decades. However, the recent reduction was slowed down, and the burden remained high. Understanding regional disparity in cardiovascular deaths would help facilitate the improvement. Thus, we investigated geographic variation in CVD mortality and its spatiotemporal trend in Korea between 1983 and 2019. The findings showed higher mortality in the southeastern regions, while the regional disparity converged over time. It suggested that these regions call for action in terms of prevention and management of CVDs, in addition to an effort to reduce the death rates in other regions.

Background and Objectives

Despite remarkable reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, the burden has remained the leading cause of death. Since little research has focused on regional disparity in CVD mortality, this study aims to investigate its spatiotemporal trends in Korea from 1983 to 2019.

Methods

Using the causes of death statistics in Korea, we analyzed the geographic variation in deaths from CVDs from 1983 to 2019. The sex and age-standardized mortality rate was calculated according to the 17 administrative regions. The analyses include all diseases of the circulatory system (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes, I00–I99), along with the following 6 subcategories which were not mutually exclusive: total heart disease (I00–I13 and I20–I51), hypertensive heart disease (I10–I13), ischemic heart disease (I20–I25), myocardial infarction (I21–I23), heart failure (I50), and cerebrovascular disease (I60–I69).

Results

Overall, heart failure death rate increased across all regions, and other CVD death rates showed a decreasing trend. Regional disparity in mortality was substantial in the early 1980s but converged over time. In all types of cardiovascular mortality, Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam remained the highest, although they showed a downward trend like other regions. Jeju continued to have a relatively low CVD mortality rate.

Conclusions

The regional disparity substantially decreased compared to the 1980s. However, the relatively high burden of CVD mortality in the southeastern region has not been fully resolved.

Potential Influential Factors of In-Hospital Myocardial Reinfarction in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) Patients: Finding from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China- (CCC-) Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) Project

In this study, 39915 inpatients with a discharge diagnosis of STEMI from the CCC-ACS project phase I and II were included. The prevalence of the medical history, clinical complications on admission and treatment during hospitalization in the STEMI inpatients with and without in-hospital reinfarction was presented. The factors that were differentially distributed and of critical clinical significance (e.g., age, sex, heart rate, smoking, MI history, HF history, COPD history, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, PCI treatment, administration of DAPT, and statins) were entered into standard Cox regression model and competing risk model for potential influential factors of in-hospital reinfarction. Patients with a higher heart rate (OR 1.018; 95% CI 1.003 to 1.033) were more susceptible to in-hospital reinfarction. Myocardial infarction history (OR 2.840; 95% CI 1.160 to 6.955) was a risk factor of in-hospital reinfarction independent of hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia.

Attenuating the Variability of Lipids Is Beneficial for the Hypertension Management to Reduce the Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Older Adults

Objective: To investigate the beneficial of attenuating the variability of lipids to the hypertension management in older adults.

Methods: Between April 2008 and November 2010, 1,244 hypertensive patients aged ≥60 years were recruited and randomized into placebo and rosuvastatin groups. Outcomes and inter-visit plasma lipids variability were assessed.

Results: Over an average follow-up of 83.5 months, the coefficients of variation (CVs) in total cholesterol (TCHO), triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) were significantly lower in the rosuvastatin group than the placebo group (p < 0.05). The risks of composite cardiovascular event, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, heart failure, total stroke, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death were significantly lower in the rosuvastatin group than the placebo group (all p < 0.05). The differences in the risks were significantly diminished after the CVs for TCHO, triglycerides, HDL-c, and LDL-c were separately included as confounders. One-SD of CVs for TCHO, triglycerides, HDL-c, and LDL-c increment were significantly associated with the risks of composite cardiovascular event, myocardial infarction, heart failure, total stroke, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death, respectively (all p < 0.05).

Conclusions: Rosuvastatin significantly attenuated the intra-visit variability in lipids and decreased the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Controlling the variability of lipids is as important as antihypertensive treatment to reduce the cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the management of older hypertensive patients.

Clinical Trial Registration:ChiCTR.org.cn, ChiCTR-IOR-17013557.

Changes in Six-Month Prevalence of Circulatory System Diseases among People Aged 20 Years and Older between 2013 and 2018 in Hunan, China

Recent changes in population-based prevalence for circulatory system diseases (CSDs) remain unreported either nationally or locally for China. Data were from the two-round health service household interview survey of Hunan Province, China, in 2013 and 2018. A Rao–Scott chi-square test was performed to examine prevalence differences across socio-demographic variables. The overall age-standardized prevalence of CSDs increased substantially between 2013 and 2018 for inhabitants aged 20 years and older (14.25% vs. 21.25%; adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.24–2.04). Hypertensive disease was the most prevalent type of CSD, accounting for 87.24% and 83.83% of all CSDs in 2013 and in 2018, respectively. After controlling for other socio-demographic factors, the prevalence of CSDs was significantly higher in 2018 (adjusted OR = 1.40), urban residents (adjusted OR = 1.43), females (adjusted OR = 1.12) and older age groups (adjusted OR = 5.36 for 50–59 years, 9.51 for 60–69 years, 15.19 for 70–79 years, and 12.90 for 80 years and older) than in 2013, rural residents, males and the youngest age group (20–49 years). The recent increase in the overall age-standardized CSD prevalence and the large prevalence disparities across urban/rural residents, sex and age groups merit the attention of policymakers and researchers. Further prevention efforts are needed to curb the increasing tendency and to reduce the prevalence of disparities across socio-demographic groups.

Management characteristics and prognosis after stroke in China: findings from a large nationwide stroke registry

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

There is limited nationwide evidence about the standard management characteristics of stroke types and prognosis in China. This study aimed to assess clinical characteristics, in-hospital and after-discharge management characteristics and prognosis for stroke types in China.

METHODS

A nationwide registry recruited 14 244 imaging-confirmed first-ever incident strokes from 132 hospitals across 31 provinces of China during 2007-2008, recording presenting characteristics, diagnostic procedures and in-hospital treatment. After hospital discharge, patients were followed up for 6 months. Conventional statistical methods were used to examine the patterns of management and prognosis.

RESULTS

Overall, 68.7%, 26.9% and 4.4% were ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), respectively. Only 20% were managed in a dedicated stroke unit. Among IS, 1.3% received thrombolysis within 3 hours after symptom onset, whereas the proportions of receiving in-hospital antiplatelet therapy, neuroprotective agents and traditional Chinese medicines (TCM) were 88.4%, 69.7% and 70.6%, respectively. For ICH, 63.3% and 36.3% received neuroprotective agents and TCM in hospital, respectively. At discharge, 70.7% and 38.0% of the patients with IS were given antiplatelet and statin therapies, respectively, decreasing to 64.8% and 23.9%, respectively, at 6 months. In-hospital mortality was 3.2%, 9.3% and 10.1% for IS, ICH and SAH, respectively, with a further 8.6%, 18.2% and 22.0%, respectively, died by 6 month. Meanwhile, in-hospital recurrence rate was 2.6%, 1.9% and 7.2% for IS, ICH and SAH, respectively, with a further 8.0%, 5.1% and 7.5%, respectively, recurred by 6 month.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, the mortality rate of stroke is lower than that reported from west populations, though most strokes are not managed in specialised stroke unit. There is widespread use of some unproven therapies but limited proven treatments, especially after discharge, leading to unnecessary recurrent risks.

Combined effect of menopause and cardiovascular risk factors on death and cardiovascular disease: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Observational studies suggest that early menopause is associated with increased risk of death and cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the results of these studies have been inconsistently. We aimed to assess the association of menopause with death and CVD and whether this association was modified by cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS

The study population was women age 35-64 years living in two communities of Beijing who were enrolled in the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study in 1992. Participants were followed until first cardiovascular event, death, or the end of follow-up (2018). Self-reported age at menopause was recorded. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of death and CVD after adjusting for baseline covariates of age, family history of CVD, and white blood cell count, as well as time-varying covariates of menopause, use of oral estrogen, and conventional risk factors. Additionally, we assessed the combined effect of age at menopause and risk factors on the primary endpoint.

RESULTS

Of 2104 eligible women, 124 died and 196 had a first CVD event (33 fatal CVD and 163 non-fatal CVD). Compared with women who experienced menopause at age 50-51 years, the risk of death was higher in women with menopause at age 45-49 years (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.24-3.21; P = 0.005), and the risk of ischemic stroke was higher in women with menopause at age < 45 years (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.04-4.51; P = 0.04) and at age 45-49 years (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.15-3.63; P = 0.01). Women who had menopause before age 50 years and at least one elevated risk factor at baseline had a higher risk of death (HR 11.10, 95% CI 1.51-81.41; P = 0.02), CVD (HR 3.98, 95% CI 1.58-10.01; P = 0.003), ischemic CVD (HR 4.53, 95% CI 1.63-12.62; P = 0.004), coronary heart disease (HR 8.63, 95% CI 1.15-64.50; P = 0.04), and stroke (HR 2.92, 95% CI 1.03-8.29; P = 0.04) than those with menopause at age 50-51 years and optimal levels of all risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Earlier menopause may predict death and ischemic stroke. Furthermore, there is a combined effect of earlier menopause and elevated risk factors on death and CVD.

Development and validation of a 2-year new-onset stroke risk prediction model for people over age 45 in China

Multiple factors, including increasing incidence, poor knowledge of stroke and lack of effective, noninvasive and convenient stroke risk prediction tools, make it more difficult for precautions against stroke in China. Effective prediction models for stroke may assist to establish better risk awareness and management, healthier lifestyle, and lower stroke incidence for people.The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey was the development cohort. Logistic regression was applied to model's development, in which the candidate variables with statistically significant coefficient were included in the prediction model. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and 10-times cross-validation were used for internal validation. Cutoff point of high-risk group was measured by Youden index. The China Health and Nutrition Survey was the validation cohort.The development cohort and the validation cohort included 16557 and 5065 participants, and the incidence density was 358.207/100,000 person-year and 350.701/100,000 person-year, respectively. The model for 2-year new-onset stroke risk prediction included age, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and smoking. The AUC and cross-validation AUC were 0.707 (95% confidence interval[CI]: 0.664, 0.750) and the 0.710 (95% CI: 0.650, 0.736). The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the cutoff point were 0.774, 0.545, and 0.319. The AUC and cross-validation AUC were 0.800 (95% CI: 0.744, 0.856) and 0.811(95% CI:0.714, 0.847), and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of cutoff point being 0.857,0.569, and 0.426 in external validation.A simple prediction tool using 5 noninvasive and easily accessible factors can assist in 2-year new-onset stroke risk prediction in Chinese people over 45 years old, which is believed to be applicable in identifying high-risk individuals and health management in China.

Comparison and Analysis of Epidemiologic Characteristics of Stroke in Sichuan Province, China

Previous studies have shown that there is a geographic variation in the prevalence of stroke, with a lower prevalence of stroke in Sichuan province. And a stroke transition was found during the period of economic development as well. However, as the center of Southwest China, with a greatly developed economy, whether the geographic variation remained with lower burden of stroke in Sichuan province is unknown. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the secular stroke status in Sichuan province to help explore the potential reasons for geographic disparity. From a cross-sectional study conducted based on eight national disease surveillance points (DSPs) in Sichuan province in 2013, the epidemiologic data of stroke were collected. Data of risk factors were obtained from a cross-sectional study based on 12 national DSPs in Sichuan province in 2013. The results showed that the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and mortality of stroke in Sichuan province were 338.6/100,000 people [95% confidence interval (CI), 267.8–409.4], 147.1/100,000 person-years (95% CI = 100.6–193.6), and 72.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI = 40.0–104.8), respectively, which were significantly lower than those determined from the contemporary data of China in 2013. The analysis of the risk factors showed that the weights of contribution of the potential risk factors to stroke were in consistency with those published reports from other areas. In conclusion, the disparity of lower stroke burden in Sichuan than the average China remained, although with the great developments in Sichuan province over all those decades. In addition to traditional modifiable factors, we suggest that unknown or intrinsic differences such as genetic factors might play an important role in geographic disparity, which should be investigated in future studies.

Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a serious public health issue worldwide, and DM patients have higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which is the leading cause of DM-related deaths. China has the largest DM population, yet a robust model to predict CVDs in Chinese DM patients is still lacking. This systematic review is carried out to summarize existing models and identify potentially important predictors for CVDs in Chinese DM patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched for data from April 1st, 2011 to May 31st, 2018. A study was eligible if it developed CVD (defined as total CVD or any major cardiovascular component) risk prediction models or explored potential predictors of CVD specifically for Chinese people with type 2 DM. Standardized forms were utilized to extract information, appraise applicability, risk of bias, and availabilities.

RESULTS

Five models and 29 studies focusing on potential predictors were identified. Models for a primary care setting, or to predict total CVD, are rare. A number of common predictors (e.g. age, sex, diabetes duration, smoking status, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure, lipid profile, and treatment modalities) were observed in existing models, in which urine albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are highly recommended for the Chinese population. Variability of blood pressure (BP) and HbA1c should be included in prediction model development as novel factors. Meanwhile, interactions between age, sex, and risk factors should also be considered.

CONCLUSIONS

A 10-year prediction model for CVD risk in Chinese type 2 DM patients is lacking and urgently needed. There is insufficient evidence to support the inclusion of other novel predictors in CVDs risk prediction functions for routine clinical use.

The association of outdoor temperature with blood pressure, and its influence on future cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk in cold areas

OBJECTIVES

To explore whether lower outdoor temperature increases cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk through regulating blood pressure and whether indoor heating in winter is beneficial to prevent cardio-cerebrovascular disease in cold areas.

METHODS

We analyzed the data of 38 589 participants in Harbin from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) during 2004-2008, with an average of 7.14-year follow-up. Linear regression analysis was performed to estimate the relationship between outdoor temperature and blood pressure. Cox regression analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the association of blood pressure with cardio-cerebrovascular event risk. Mediation analysis was performed to explore the role of blood pressure in the association between outdoor temperature and cardio-cerebrovascular events risk.

RESULTS

There was an increase of 6.7 mmHg in SBP and 2.1 mmHg in DBP for each 10 °C decrease in outdoor temperature when outdoor temperature was higher than 5 °C. There was an inverse association between outdoor temperature and cardio-cerebrovascular event morbidity. The increases in blood pressure and cardio-cerebrovascular event morbidity were attenuated in months when central heating was fully provided. Participants with hypertension have higher risks of cardio-cerebrovascular disease (hazard ratio 1.347; 95% CI 1.281--1.415), CVD (hazard ratio 1.347; 95% CI 1.282--1.416), MACE (hazard ratio 1.670; 95% CI 1.560--1.788) and stroke (hazard ratio 1.683; 95% CI 1.571--1.803). Mediation analysis demonstrated that the association between outdoor temperature and cardio-cerebrovascular events risk was potentially mediated by blood pressure.

CONCLUSION

Temperature-driven blood pressure potentially mediates the association between outdoor temperature and cardio-cerebrovascular events risk. Indoor heating in winter is probably beneficial to cardio-cerebrovascular disease prevention by inhibition of blood pressure increase.

Study protocol: The INTERMAP China Prospective (ICP) study

Background: Unfavourable blood pressure (BP) level is an established risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), while the exact underlying reasons for unfavourable BP are poorly understood.  The INTERMAP China Prospective (ICP) Study is a prospective cohort to investigate the relationship of environmental and nutritional risk factors with key indicators of vascular function (BP, arterial stiffness, carotid-intima media thickness) among middle-aged/older men and women. Methods: A total of 839 Chinese participants aged 40-59 years from three diverse regions of China were enrolled in INTERMAP in 1997/98; data collection included repeated BP measurements, 24-hour urine specimens, and 24-hour dietary recalls.  In 2015/16, 574 of these 839 persons were re-enrolled along with 208 new participants aged 40-59 years that were randomly selected from the same study villages.  Participant’s environmental and dietary exposures and health outcomes were assessed in this open cohort study, including BP, 24-hour dietary recalls, personal exposures to air pollution, grip strength, arterial stiffness, carotid-media thickness and plaques, cognitive function, and sleep patterns.  Serum and plasma specimens were collected with 24-hour urine specimens. A follow-up visit has been scheduled for 2020-2021. Discussion:  Winter and summer assessments of a comprehensive set of vascular indicators and their environmental and nutritional risk factors were conducted with high precision.  We will leverage advances in exposome research to identify biomarkers of exposure to environmental and nutritional risk factors and improve our understanding of the mechanisms and pathways of their hazardous cardiovascular effects.  The ICP Study is observational by design, thus subject to several biases including selection bias (e.g., loss to follow-up), information bias (e.g., measurement error), and confounding that we sought to mitigate through our study design and measurements.  However, extensive efforts will apply to minimize those limitations (continuous observer training, repeated measurements of BP, standardized methods in data collection and measurements, and on-going quality control).

Association between blood pressure levels and cardiovascular deaths: a 20-year follow-up study in rural China

OBJECTIVES

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) hypertension guideline recommended 130/80 mm Hg as blood pressure (BP) target goals. However, the generalisability of this recommendation to populations at large with hypertension remains controversial. We assessed the association between BP and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) mortality using a 20-year follow-up study among Chinese populations.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

7314 participants were followed up for a median of 20 years in Fangshan District, Beijing, China.

METHODS

The primary outcome variable was death from cardiovascular causes. The adjusted HR for CVDs mortality associated with baseline BP was calculated using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 350 deaths from CVDs (148 stroke, 113 coronary heart disease and 89 other CVDs) during follow-up. Hypertension (defined by systolic BP (SBP)/diastolic BP (DBP) ≥140/90 mm Hg) was significantly associated with mortality due to CVDs (HR=2.49, 95% CI=1.77 to 3.50) among people aged 35-59 years rather than people aged ≥60 years. In addition, there was no significant association between stage 1 hypertension defined by the 2017 ACC/AHA (SBP/DBP of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg) and CVDs mortality when compared with SBP/DBP of <120/80 in neither the participants aged <60 years (HR=0.90, 95% CI=0.54 to 1.50) nor participants aged ≥60 years (HR=1.47, 95% CI=0.94 to 2.29).

CONCLUSION

The study revealed hypertension of SBP/DBP≥140/90 mm Hg was an important risk factor of CVDs mortality, especially among people aged 35-59 years. However, stage 1 hypertension under the definition of 2017 ACC/AHA was not associated with an increased risk of CVDs mortality. This study indicated that whether adopting the new hypertension definition needs further consideration in rural Chinese populations.

Long Sleep Duration is Associated with Increased High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein: A Nationwide Study on Chinese Population

PURPOSE

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) has been shown as an important predictor of cardiovascular risk, and sleep duration is an important factor influencing health outcomes. However, the association between hs-CRP and sleep duration among Chinese adults remained unknown and controversial. We aimed to explore the associations between sleep duration and hs-CRP levels among Chinese adults, and the differences in sex and geographical regions.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was based on nationally representative Chinese samples from the 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey, which employed multistage, random cluster designs. Habitual sleep duration was self-reported with short and long sleep duration defined as ≤6h and ≥9h per day, respectively. Participants were divided into 4 groups based on the categories of self-reported sleep duration (≤6h, 7h, 8h, ≥9h per day), excluding hs-CRP levels ≥10 mg/L. Subset samples were stratified by sex and geographical regions.

RESULTS

A total of 8170 Chinese adults with a mean age of 50.0±14.9 years and 4369 (53.5%) men were included. Participants sleeping eight hours had the lowest hs-CRP levels. Long sleep duration (≥9h) was significantly associated with elevated hs-CRP levels after adjusting for multiple covariates in full samples (β=0.0356; 95% CI: 0.0050-0.0663; P=0.0228), but the associations of short sleep duration (≤ 6h) were limited to the unadjusted model. Long sleep duration was associated with elevated hs-CRP levels in women (β= 0.0512; 95% CI: 0.0097-0.0927; P=0.0155) and in the northern region of China (β=0.0699; 95% CI: 0.0210-0.1187; P=0.0051), but not in men or the southern region.

CONCLUSION

Long but not short sleep duration was positively associated with elevated hs-CRP levels, independent from traditional risk factors among Chinese adults, and sex and geographical differences were observed. Our findings imply that modifications of long sleep duration might be added to behavioral therapy to reduce cardiovascular risk in Chinese adults.

Prevalence and risk factors for dyslipidemia among adults in rural and urban China: findings from the China National Stroke Screening and prevention project (CNSSPP)

Background

Dyslipidemia is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated the prevalence and associated risk factors of dyslipidemia- raised total cholesterol (TC), raised triglycerides (TG), raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C), low high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C), and raised non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL-C) in rural and urban China.

Methods

We analyzed data from 136,945 participants aged 40–100 years of the CNSSPP project for 2014. Dyslipidemia was defined by the NCEP-ATP III and the 2016 Chinese guidelines for the management of dyslipidemia in adults. Complete data on demographic, metabolic and lifestyle characteristics were used. Chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression were used to obtain age- and sex-adjusted prevalence and risk factors for dyslipidemia among participants.

Results

A total of 53.1% participants lived in rural areas. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was similar among rural and urban participants (43.2% vs. 43.3%). Regarding the components of dyslipidemia: urban compared with rural participants had a higher prevalence of low HDL-C (20.8% vs. 19.2%), whereas the prevalence of raised LDL-C (7.8% vs. 8.3%), raised TC (10.9% vs.11.8%) and raised non-HDL-C (10.0% vs. 10.9%) were lower in urban residents, (all p < 0.001). Women were more likely to have raised TC than men (adjusted OR [AOR] =1.83, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.75–1.91), raised LDL-C (AOR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.47–1.63) and high non-HDL-C (AOR = 1.52 95% CI: 1.45–1.59) (all p < 0.001). Compared with rural, urban participants had higher odds of dyslipidemia: low HDL-C (AOR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01–1.07), and raised TG (AOR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04–1.09). Hypertension and current drinker were less likely to get low HDL-C with AOR 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90–0.96) and AOR 0.73 (95% CI: 0.70–75), respectively. Overweight, obesity, central obesity and diabetes had higher odds of all dyslipidemias (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Low HDL-C was higher in urban areas, whereas the remaining dyslipidemia types were more common in rural areas. Dyslipidemia was more common in women in both areas of residence. Overweight, obesity, central obesity and diabetes were associated with dyslipidemias. The need to intensify intervention programs to manage dyslipidemia and risk factors should be prioritized.

Study protocol: The INTERMAP China Prospective (ICP) study

Background: Unfavourable blood pressure (BP) level is an established risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), while the exact underlying reasons for unfavourable BP are poorly understood.  The INTERMAP China Prospective (ICP) Study is a prospective cohort to investigate the relationship of environmental and nutritional risk factors with key indicators of vascular function including BP, arterial stiffness, and carotid-intima media thickness. Methods: A total of 839 Chinese participants aged 40-59 years from three diverse regions of China were enrolled in INTERMAP in 1997/98; data collection included repeated BP measurements, 24-hour urine specimens, and 24-hour dietary recalls.  In 2015/16, 574 of these 839 persons were re-enrolled along with 208 new participants aged 40-59 years that were randomly selected from the same study villages.  Participant’s environmental and dietary exposures and health outcomes were assessed in this open cohort study, including BP, 24-hour dietary recalls, personal exposures to air pollution, grip strength, arterial stiffness, carotid-media thickness and plaques, cognitive function, and sleep patterns.  Serum and plasma specimens were collected with 24-hour urine specimens. Discussion:  Winter and summer assessments of a comprehensive set of vascular indicators and their environmental and nutritional risk factors were conducted with high precision.  We will leverage advances in exposome research to identify biomarkers of exposure to environmental and nutritional risk factors and improve our understanding of the mechanisms and pathways of their hazardous cardiovascular effects.  The ICP Study is observational by design, thus subject to several biases including selection bias (e.g., loss to follow-up), information bias (e.g., measurement error), and confounding that we sought to mitigate through our study design and measurements.  However, extensive efforts will apply to minimize those limitations (continuous observer training, repeated measurements of BP, standardized methods in data collection and measurements, and on-going quality control).

Stroke epidemiology and stroke policies in China from 1980 to 2017: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Stroke is the leading cause of death and years of life lost in China, and this problem is growing because stroke risk factors such as hypertension and hypercholesteremia have been on the rise as China experiences the demographic transition. The Chinese government has created public health initiatives in the form of guidelines, policies and programs to combat this problem, but the dissemination and effectiveness of these policies are not well known.

Aims

The aim of this study was to determine trends in stroke incidence, prevalence, and stroke-related mortality in China and to report these trends in the context of stroke initiatives that have been enacted by the Chinese government.

Summary of review

We systematically reviewed articles on stroke rates and stroke initiatives from 1980 to 2017. A meta-regression including 11 studies showed that stroke incidence remained stable at 128.3 per 100,000 per year from 1980 to 2005 and has increased by 21.3 per 100,000 per year since then to 298.7 per 100,000 per year in 2013. A meta-regression including seven studies demonstrated a gradual decline in stroke-related mortality by 6.5 per 100,000 per year since 1980 (a decline from 369.2 in 1980 to 154.7 per 100,000 per year in 2013). Average stroke prevalence was 898.4 per 100,000 over the entire time-period. Limitations included heterogeneity between the studies. We identified 12 stroke initiatives, the first of which was enacted in 2006.

Conclusions

Despite numerous public health initiatives aimed at combating stroke that started in 2006, stroke incidence in China has increased over the last decade, likely as a result of aging and urbanization of the Chinese population.

Spatiotemporal variations in cardiovascular disease mortality in China from 1991 to 2009

BACKGROUND

In China, the spatiotemporal variations in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality are seldom characterized to understand their epidemiological features. It would be helpful to evaluate the performance of CVD-related interventions for subsequent adjustments.

METHODS

The 2010 Census data as well as the coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality data from the Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) were used to calculate the age standardized death rates (ASDRs) of CVD in the DSP counties during 1991-1995, 1996-2000, 2004-2005, and 2006-2009. The ordinary kriging (OK) method was used to estimate the county-level death rates of CHD and stroke and achieved satisfactory results.

RESULTS

The goodness-of-fit between measured and estimated values of CVD mortality was significant at the 0.01 level (0.34 < R2 < 0.98). The counties with high CHD death rates (> 75 per 105) were located in the Northwest, North, and Northeast in 1991-2000 and then extended toward the North, Central, and South, yielding an inverted-triangle-shaped area in 2004-2009. The counties with a CHD death rate increase greater than 100% were concentrated in the Northeast and South. The Northeast-Southwest regions with a high stroke death rate gradient (> 150 per 105) narrowed in1991-2000, was followed by a slight expansion during 2004-2005, finally reducing in 2006-2009. The counties with a stroke mortality increase greater than 100% were scattered across the Northeast, Northwest, Central, and South.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiological characteristics of both CHD and stroke mortality in China was spatiotemporally featured on the county level during 1991-2009.

Effects of occupation on intracerebral hemorrhage-related deaths in Inner Mongolia

This study assessed the relationship between occupation and Intracerebral Hemorrhage-related deaths and compared the differences in ICH-related deaths rates between the eastern and midwestern regions of Inner Mongolia. We used the case-control method. Cases included Intracerebral Hemorrhage-related deaths that occurred from 2009 to 2012 in Inner Mongolia while controls included non-circulatory system disease deaths that occurred during the same period. Odds ratios (ORs) for Intracerebral Hemorrhage-related deaths were calculated using logistic regression analysis, estimated according to occupation, and adjusted for marital status and age. The Intracerebral Hemorrhage mortality rate in the eastern regions (125.19/100000) was nearly 3 times higher than that in the midwestern regions (45.31/100000). ORs for agriculture-livestock workers, service professionals and general workers, professional workers and senior officials were in descending order. The age-adjusted OR for Intracerebral Hemorrhage-related deaths was lowest in unmarried men senior officials (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.14-0.99). The Intracerebral Hemorrhage mortality rate in the eastern regions was much higher than that of the midwestern regions, since about 90% of Intracerebral Hemorrhage-related deaths in the eastern regions were those of agriculture-livestock workers who has the largest labor intensity of any other occupation assessed.

Drug Treatment of Hyperlipidemia in Chinese Patients: Focus on the Use of Simvastatin and Ezetimibe Alone and in Combination

Elevated serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a major risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). Many guidelines recommend LDL-C as a primary treatment target, and statins represent the cornerstone of treatment for lipid management. Recently revised guidelines recommend even more intense management of LDL-C, especially in patients at moderate and high risk. However, LDL-C levels in the Chinese population differ from those in Western populations, and the benefits and safety of the maximum allowable dose of statins have yet to be determined. Furthermore, in practice, many patients do not achieve the increasingly stringent LDL-C goals. Consequently, alternative approaches to lipid management are required. Combination therapy with ezetimibe and a statin, which have complementary mechanisms of action, is more effective than statin monotherapies, even at high doses. Several clinical studies have consistently shown that combination therapy with ezetimibe and simvastatin lowers LDL-C more potently than statin monotherapies. Moreover, the safety and tolerability profile of the combination therapy appears to be similar to that of low-dose statin monotherapies. This review discusses the role of simvastatin in combination with ezetimibe in controlling dyslipidemia in Chinese patients, particularly the efficacy and safety of combination therapy in light of recently published clinical data.

Association of Blood Pressure With Stroke Risk, Stratified by Age and Stroke Type, in a Low-Income Population in China: A 27-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Association of stroke risk with new blood pressure criterion 2017 is unknown in China. We assessed the association between blood pressure (BP) values and stroke risk in a low-income population in Tianjin, China. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) values were categorized into five strata and strokes were recorded as stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. Stroke risk was analyzed according to blood pressure stratum using Cox regression analysis. Overall, 4,017 residents (age, ≥18 years) were included in this prospective cohort study. Over a 27-year follow-up period (total, 86,515.78 person-years), 638 participants experienced first-ever strokes. The stroke risk was higher among individuals with SBPs ≥140 mmHg or DBPs ≥90 mmHg than among those with SBPs < 130 mmHg or DBPs < 80 mmHg (reference group), after adjusting for covariates. However, hemorrhagic stroke risk increased only in participants with SBPs ≥160 mmHg. The stroke risk increased for individuals < 65-years-old having BP values ≥130/80 mmHg and for individuals ≥65-years-old with BP values ≥160/90 mmHg. To reduce the stroke burden in China, target BP goals must be established for adults, with different targets for the middle-aged and the elderly segments of the population. These results are very important for guiding clinical practice and may be generalized to other developing countries experiencing rapid economic development and where transitions in the spectrum of prevalent diseases have occurred.

High prevalence of stroke and uncontrolled associated risk factors are major public health challenges in rural northeast China: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Stroke has become a major burden and public health problem in rural China. We aimed to comprehensively assess the current status of stroke burden as well as the associated risk factors in rural northeast China.

METHODS

This population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in 10,926 adults (response rate 85.3%) aged ≥40 years residing in rural northeast China. A multistage cluster sampling method was used to select the representative sample. The prevalent stroke cases were considered as stroke survivors on 31 August 2017. Stroke was diagnosed according to the World Health Organization's recommendations and was classified as ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke based on the results of computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. The status of related risk factors was also evaluated.

RESULTS

Of the 10,926 participants, 731 were diagnosed with stroke (602 patients with ischemic stroke, 151 with hemorrhage stroke, and 22 with both ischemic stroke and hemorrhage stroke). The crude prevalence of overall stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhage stroke was 6690.5, 5509.8, and 1382.0 per 100,000 people, respectively, and the age-standardized rate was 4903.8, 4041.7, and 990.9 per 100,000 people. Among the overall stroke population, 13.4% were living with consequences of stroke. Hypertension (86.7%), dyslipidemia (37.2%), and diabetes (24.5%) were highly prevalent in stroke participants. However, most of those comorbidities remained uncontrolled (93.7, 44.7, and 88.9%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The burden of stroke in rural northeast China was substantial, with a high prevalence of stroke, recurrence, and disabilities. Uncontrolled comorbidities will likely contribute to recurrence and worsening disabilities in the coming decades. Strategies of long-term management of stroke and related risk factors are urgently required in rural northeast China.

Performance of atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk prediction models in a rural Northern Chinese population: Results from the Fangshan Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Performance of Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risks varied across populations. Whether the recently developed Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) model could accurately predict cardiovascular risks in real practice remains unclear.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study in rural Beijing in the "stroke belt" in North China was used to externally validate PCE and China-PAR models for 5-year ASCVD risk prediction. Expected 5-year prediction risk using China-PAR model was compared with PCE (white). The models were assessed for calibration, discrimination, and reclassification.

RESULTS

Among 11,169 adults aged 40 to 79 years over a median 6.44 years of follow-up, 1,921 participants developed a first ASCVD event during total 70,951 person-years. China-PAR model fairly predicted ASCVD risk in men but overestimated by 29.4% risk in women (calibration χ² = 81.4, P < .001). Underestimations were shown by PCE as 76.2% in men and 88.2% in women with poor calibration (both P < .001). However, discrimination was similar in both models: C-statistics in men were 0.685 (95% CI 0.660-0.710) for China-PAR and 0.675 (95% CI 0.649-0.701) for PCE; C-statistics in women were 0.711 (95% CI 0.694-0.728) for China-PAR and 0.714 (95% CI 0.697-0.731) for PCE. Moreover, China-PAR did not substantially improve accuracy of reclassification compared with PCE.

CONCLUSIONS

China-PAR outperformed PCE in 5-year ASCVD risk prediction in this rural Northern Chinese population at average population risk level, fairly predicted risk in men, but overestimated risk in women; however, China-PAR did not meaningfully improve the accuracy of discrimination and reclassification at individual risk level.

Outcomes after stenting for symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Stenting is a common endovascular therapy for symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis (ICAS). We sought to update the evaluation of global short-term safety and long-term efficacy outcomes after stenting for symptomatic ICAS and explore their distributional characteristics.

METHODS

Major databases including Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE were systematically searched from January 1st, 2005, for RCTs and observational studies which reported short- and long-term outcomes after stenting for symptomatic ICAS. Each outcome was pooled with meta-analysis and the impacts of study location, publication time, and other population characteristics were further assessed by the univariate and multivariate Poisson regression analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 8408 patients were identified in 92 studies from 16 countries across five WHO regions. The estimated rate of short-term stroke or death was 6.68% (95% CI 5.60-8.36%), and the rate of long-term stroke or death was 4.43% (95% CI 2.61-6.60%). After adjustment of age, sex, study location, preprocedual stenosis, publication period and study design, multivariate regression analysis showed that the rate of short-term stroke or death was different between Western and Eastern countries (10.27% versus 5.52%, p = 0.018). The rates of short-term, stroke, ischemic stroke and long-term death were also significantly higher in Western compared to Eastern countries.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review provided the worldwide profile of short- and long-term outcomes of stenting for symptomatic ICAS. The generally acceptable outcomes indicate that stenting may still be feasible in selected patients. Regional disparity calls for more cautious decisions and future studies.

The Epidemiological Characteristics of Stroke in Hunan Province, China

Previous studies have shown that Hunan Province has a high incidence of stroke and a high proportion of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Considering the changes over the past three decades, little is known about the current epidemiological characteristics of stroke in Hunan Province. In 2013, a cross-sectional study was conducted at seven national disease surveillance points (DSPs) in Hunan Province. A multistage cluster sampling method was used to select a representative sample. A total of 21,156 participants aged 20 years and older were examined. Among the 21,156 participants, the number of prevalent strokes, incident strokes and deaths was 307, 87, and 36, respectively. The 2010 China census-standardized prevalence, incidence and mortality were 1191.0 per 100,000 people [95% confidence interval (CI) 1044.8-1337.2], 333.6 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 255.7-411.5) and 129.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 81.1-178.3), respectively. Ischemic stroke (IS), ICH, subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and stroke of undetermined type (UND) constituted 50.6, 41.4, 5.7, and 2.3% of all incident stroke cases, respectively. Tianxin, Liuyang, Wuling, and Hongjiang have high proportions of ICH (61.5, 58.3, 60, and 50%, respectively). Hypertension is the most common risk factor for prevalent stroke (71.34%), followed by smoking (30.62%) and alcohol use (25.73%). In conclusion, Hunan Province has an extremely heavy stroke burden. The high proportion of ICH is not limited to the Changsha community; it represents an important issue for all of Hunan Province.

Twenty-year epidemiologic study on LDL-C levels in relation to the risks of atherosclerotic event, hemorrhagic stroke, and cancer death among young and middle-aged population in China

BACKGROUND

Lowering elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels is a key strategy in primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), but the optimal LDL-C level is not well established in Chinese.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to search for the LDL-C level that associated with the lowest long-term ASCVD risk without excess risk of other life-threatening diseases.

METHODS

Totally 20,954 participants aged 35-64 years were followed up for about 20 years. Cumulative and relative risks of ASCVD, hemorrhagic stroke, and cancer death, according to baseline LDL-C levels, were calculated using modified Kaplan-Meier and Fine & Gray models, considering competing risks. Preventable ASCVD cases against increased harms were estimated by simulation, replacing elevated LDL-C levels with lower LDL-C levels in the risk prediction models for individuals with different ASCVD risk.

RESULTS

The lower the baseline LDL-C, the lower the 20-year risk of ASCVD in participants with LDL-C levels ranging from the lowest category (<40 mg/dL) to the highest (≥160 mg/dL). We found no association between lower LDL-C levels and long-term risk of cancer death. If all people with LDL-C ≥130 mg/dL were assumed to have the LDL-C level <70 mg/dL and other risk factors remained unchanged, a substantial number of ASCVD cases would be preventable. However, for uncontrolled hypertensive patients, the LDL-C level <70 mg/dL would have extra harm from hemorrhagic stroke.

CONCLUSION

Participants with baseline LDL-C <40 mg/dL had the lowest ASCVD risk. An excess risk of hemorrhagic stroke was observed in patients with uncontrolled hypertension and LDL-C <70 mg/dL. LDL-C 70-99 mg/dL had reasonably low ASCVD risk without excess risk of other life-threatening diseases.

Establishment and validation of a prediction model for ischemic stroke risks in patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

A risk scoring system for predicting ischemic stroke incidence may identify type 2 diabetes patients at high risk for ischemic stroke who can benefit from preventive intervention programs. Such a risk scoring system can serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.

METHODS

The study adopted a retrospective cohort, including 28,124 Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes aged 30-84 years during 2001-2004. Participants were randomly assigned to the derivation and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. Cox's proportional hazard regression model was used to identify risk factors of ischemic stroke incidence in the derivation set. And then the steps proposed by the Framingham Heart Study for establishing an ischemic stroke prediction model with a scoring system was used.

RESULTS

Among 9374 patients in the validation set, 1076 subjects (11.48%) developed ischemic stroke with a mean follow up period of 8.0 years. We identified the following risk factors: age, gender, smoking habit, duration of type 2 diabetes, blood pressure, HbA1c level, total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein ratio, creatinine, fasting plasma glucose variation (FPG-CV), arterial embolism and thrombosis, diabetes retinopathy, hypoglycemia, anti-diabetes medication use, and cardiovascular medication. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year ischemic stroke incidence risks were 0.72, 0.71, and 0.68 for the validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This proposed ischemic stroke incidence risk prediction model is the first model established for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes recruited from nationwide clinical settings.

Re-look at socioeconomic inequalities in stroke prevalence among urban Chinese: is the inflexion approaching?

Background

The present association between socioeconomic status (SES) and stroke is positive in developing communities, but it is negative in developed countries where a positive SES-stroke relationship was recorded several decades ago. We hypothesized that the SES-stroke relationship in developing societies mirrors the trajectory of the Western countries at some stage of economic development. This study aimed to examine whether this inflexion is approaching in China.

Methods

This study comprises of two cross-sectional surveys conducted in the same urban areas of Nanjing, China in 2000 (S2000) and 2011 (S2011) using the same selection criteria (i.e., aged≥35 years) and sampling approach. Physician-diagnosed stroke was the outcome event, while family average income (FAI) was the explanatory variable and tertiled in our anlaysis. Mixed-effects models were used to examine the FAI-stroke association.

Results

Overall, 19,861 (response rate = 90.1%) and 7824 (response rate = 82.8%) participants participated in the S2000 and S2011, respectively. The prevalence of stroke increased by 2.5-folds (95%CI = 2.2, 2.9) from 2000 (2.1%, 95%CI = 1.9%, 2.3%) to 2011 (5.1%, 95%CI = 4.6%, 5.6%) (p < 0.01). Compared with the lower FAI category, the positive association between stroke prevalence and the higher FAI group decreased from 1.99 (95%CI = 1.55, 2.56) in 2000 to 1.49 (95%CI = 1.09, 2.03) in 2011 after control for potential confounders. A similar pattern was also observed for the middle FAI group (1.60, 95% CI = 1.23, 2.08 in 2000 vs. 1.37, 95%CI = 1.01, 1.88 in 2011).

Conclusions

This study revealed that socioeconomic inequalities in stroke were diminishing in regional China during the recent 11-year period, although the SES-stroke association was still positive. Tailored intervention against stroke should currently target on SES-vulnerable people.

Hypertension and Related Cardiovascular Disease Burden in China

BACKGROUND

With rapid economic development, urbanization, and an aging population, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have become the leading cause of death in China.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive review on the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension (HTN) as well as blood pressure (BP)-related morbidity and mortality of CVD in Chinese adults over time.

FINDINGS

The prevalence of HTN in China is high and increasing. Recent estimates are variable but indicate 33.6% (35.3% in men and 32% in women) or 335.8 million (178.6 million men and 157.2 million women) of the Chinese adult population had HTN in 2010, which represents a significant increase from previous surveys. BP-related CVD remains the leading cause of death in Chinese adults, with stroke being the predominant cause of cardiovascular deaths. Of those with HTN, 33.4% (30.4% in men and 36.7% in women) were aware of their condition, 23.9% (20.6% in men and 27.7% in women) were treated, and only 3.9% (3.5% in men and 4.3% in women) were controlled to the currently recommended target of BP <140/90 mm Hg. Awareness and treatment of HTN have improved over time, but HTN control has not. Geographic differences in the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of HTN are evident, both in terms of a north-south gradient and urban-rural disparity.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of HTN is high and increasing, while the control rate is low in Chinese adults. Combatting HTN and BP-related morbidity and mortality will require a comprehensive approach at national and local levels. The major challenge moving forward is to develop and implement effective, practical, and sustainable prevention and treatment strategies in China.

Associations between thromboxane A synthase 1 gene polymorphisms and the risk of ischemic stroke in a Chinese Han population

Thromboxane A synthase 1 (TBXAS1) catalyses the synthesis of thromboxane A2 (TXA2), which plays an important role in the pathogenesis of ischemic stroke. Thus, the TBXAS1 gene was investigated as a candidate gene involved in the formation of atherosclerosis. This case-control study collected peripheral blood specimens and clinical data of 370 ischemic stroke patients and 340 healthy controls in the Northern Chinese Han population from October 2010 to May 2011. Two TBXAS1 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, rs2267682 and rs10487667, were analyzed using a SNaPshot Multiplex sequencing assay to explore the relationships between the single-nucleotide polymorphisms in TBXAS1 and ischemic stroke. The TT genotype frequency and T allele frequency of rs2267682 in the patients with ischemic stroke were significantly higher than those in the controls (P < 0.01 and P = 0.02). Furthermore, compared with the GG + GT genotype, the TT rs2267682 genotype was associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke (odds ratio (OR) = 1.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16–2.79, P < 0.01). Multivariate logistic analysis with adjustments for confounding factors revealed that rs2267682 was still associated with ischemic stroke (OR = 1.94, 95% CI : 1.13–3.33, P = 0.02). The frequency of the T-G haplotype in the patients was significantly higher than that in the controls according haplotype analysis (OR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.10–2.00, P < 0.01). These data reveal that the rs2267682 TBXAS1 polymorphism is associated with ischemic stroke. The TT genotype of TBXAS1 and T allele of rs2267682 increase susceptibility to ischemic stroke in this Northern Chinese Han population. The protocol has been registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (registration number: ChiCTR-COC-17013559).

Large-Scale Epidemiologic Studies of Cardiovascular Diseases in China: Need for Improved Data Collection, Methods, Transparency, and Documentation

With the advent of international precision medicine initiatives, it is important to evaluate existing large-scale studies to inform future investigation. This study sought to review, describe, and evaluate all large-scale cardiovascular disease (CVD) studies completed in China. We undertook a review of all large-scale CVD studies completed in China to describe and evaluate their design, implementation, and dissemination in published medical reports. Seventeen studies met the inclusion criteria. There were substantial variations in study design, geographic location, and data collection. Most studies lacked standard study names, did not publish their methods, and provided no publicly available data. Few studies included underdeveloped regions or minority groups. Most published articles contained only descriptions of the average population at risk of CVD, and no study predicted individual CVD risk or identified people at high risk. Future CVD studies in China may need to incorporate stronger systematic data collection methods, increased data transparency, clearer documentation, and standard study names to most gain from China's burgeoning field of CVD research.

Interactions between ACYP2 genetic polymorphisms and environment factors with susceptibility to ischemic stroke in a Han Chinese Population

Aims

To investigate the association of several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within ACYP2 gene and additional gene- environment interaction with ischemic stroke (IS) risk in a Chinese population.

Results

IS risk was significantly higher in carriers with the G allele of rs11896604 than those with CC genotype (CG or GG versus CC), adjusted OR (95%CI) =1.60 (1.18-2.20), and higher in carriers with the A allele of rs12615793 than those with GG genotype (GA or AA versus GG), adjusted OR (95%CI) = 1.66 (1.24-2.15). GMDR model shown a significant two-locus model (p = 0.0010) involving rs11896604 and alcohol drinking, and a significant two-locus model (p = 0.0010) involving rs12615793 and smoking. Current smokers with rs12615793- GA or AA genotype have the highest IS risk, compared to never- smokers with rs12615793-GG genotype, OR (95%CI) = 2.72 (1.64-3.86); current drinkers with rs11896604-CG or GG genotype have the highest IS risk, compared to never- drinkers with rs11896604-CC genotype, OR (95%CI) = 2.51 (1.70-3.40).

Materials and Methods

A total of 1202 participants (660 males, 542 females) were selected, including 600 IS patients and 602 control participants. The mean age of all participants was 68.2 ± 15.8 years. Generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) was used to screen the best interaction combination. Logistic regression was performed to investigate the impact of 4 SNPs within ACYP2 gene, additional gene-smoking or drinking interaction on IS risk.

Conclusions

We found that the G allele of rs11896604 and the A allele of rs12615793 within ACYP2 gene, rs12615793- smoking interaction, and rs11896604-alcohol drinking interaction were all associated with increased IS risk.

Apolipoprotein E-containing high-density lipoprotein (HDL) modifies the impact of cholesterol-overloaded HDL on incident coronary heart disease risk: A community-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Experimental studies have shown that cholesterol-overloaded high-density lipoprotein (HDL) can promote the formation of apolipoprotein E (APOE)-containing HDL, a process correcting the atherogenic function of cholesterol-overloaded HDL.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to explore whether APOE-containing HDL can attenuate the defective impact of cholesterol-overloaded HDL on the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) in humans.

METHODS

We measured APOE-HDL cholesterol (APOE-HDLC), HDL cholesterol (HDLC), and HDL particle number in 1112 participants aged 45 to 74 years at baseline in a community-based cohort study. Cholesterol molecules per HDL particle (HDL-C/P ratio) were calculated as the ratio of HDLC to HDL particle number. The ratio of APOE-HDLC to total HDLC (APOE-HDLC/HDLC ratio) was calculated to assess the relative proportion of APOE-HDLC in total HDLC.

RESULTS

The HDL-C/P ratio was strongly correlated with APOE-HDLC (partial-r: 0.615). Participants with cholesterol-overloaded HDL (indicated by the highest level of the HDL-C/P ratio) had a high APOE-HDLC/HDLC ratio. Baseline cholesterol-overloaded HDL significantly increased the 10-year risk of incident CHD (hazard ratio = 2.42; 95% confidence interval = 1.06-8.32), but this was attenuated by an increased APOE-HDLC/HDLC ratio. Participants with high HDL-C/P ratio and APOE-HDLC/HDLC ratio had a 42% lower risk, whereas those with a high HDL-C/P ratio and low APOE-HDLC/HDLC ratio had a 2.54-fold higher risk, than those with low HDL-C/P ratio and APOE-HDLC/HDLC ratio after multiple adjustments.

CONCLUSION

Cholesterol-overloaded HDLs are related with increased APOE-containing HDL species. APOE-containing HDL was found to attenuate the impact of cholesterol-overloaded HDL on increased incident CHD risk, suggesting that APOE-containing HDL may correct the dysfunction of cholesterol-overloaded HDL.

Impacts of undetected and inadequately treated hypertension on incident stroke in China

OBJECTIVES

China carries the greatest burden of stroke given its largest volume of people with hypertension. This study assessed the impacts of suboptimal controls of hypertension on incident stroke and projected the number of patients with stroke saved after the control of blood pressure improved in population.

SETTING

Anhui, China.

PARTICIPANTS

We examined data from the Anhui cohort of 2001-2011, consisting of 3336 participants aged ≥60 years who were randomly recruited from the urban and rural Anhui. 2852 participants (89.2%) had hypertensive status measured and no stroke at baseline, and were followed up until 2011 in three surveys using a standard method of interview.

RESULTS

At baseline, 1646 participants (57.7%) were identified to have hypertension, among whom 912 (55.4%) were previously undetected, 115 (7.0%) detected but not treated, 452 (27.5%) treated but not controlled and only 127 (7.7%) controlled. During the 10-year follow-up, 211 incident stroke cases (12.8/1000 person-years) occurred. Compared with normotensive individuals at baseline, multivariate adjusted HR for having stroke increased in those with undetected hypertension by 1.63 (95%CI 1.15 to 2.32), untreated by 2.21 (1.26-3.85) and uncontrolled hypertension by 3.34 (2.28-4.88), but did not differ from those with controlled hypertension (1.34; 0.60-2.99). Based on a two-fold increase in the detection and management of current levels of hypertension and algorithms on the current situation in China, approximately 250 000 incident stroke cases could be prevented annually.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, hypertension is frequently undetected or inadequately treated. With appropriate management of hypertension, a substantial number of people could be saved form stroke.

Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China.

Methods:

The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35–84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35–60 years.

Results:

A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35–40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8–10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35–60 years at baseline.

Conclusion:

In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation.