Predicting the 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease: the framingham heart study

Cardiovascular disease in women with early-onset preeclampsia: a matched case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the risk of cardiovascular disease and the occurrence of cardiovascular events in the mid-long term after delivery, between women with and without a history of early-onset preeclampsia.

METHODS

A prospective case-control study has been conducted in Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid. 50 women with early-onset preeclampsia (diagnosed < 34 + 0 weeks) who delivered between 2008 and 2017 and a matched group (by age, parity, pregestational body mass index and date of delivery) of 50 women with uncomplicated pregnancies were recruited. In them, a 1-day visit for cardiovascular assessment was performed 3-12 years after delivery, consisting of the completion of blood and urine tests including oxidative stress analysis, vascular ultrasound to assess subclinical atherosclerosis and 24-hour blood pressure monitoring. Furthermore, Framingham10 and Framingham30 scales of cardiovascular disease risk were applied. Univariate analysis was used for comparisons, and the Kaplan-Meier method was performed to estimate their survival time until the development of a cardiovascular disease event (chronic hypertension, renal disease, myocardial infarction, thromboembolism and cerebrovascular disease).

RESULTS

Patients were evaluated at a median of 7.5 years (interquartile range, 6.5-9) after delivery. Women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia vs controls showed significantly lower levels of hemoglobin (12.9 vs 13.7 g/dL), hematocrit (38.9 vs 40.8%), prothrombin activity (93.1 vs 99.8%), IgA (223.5 vs 279.9 mg/dL) and C3 factor (101.0 vs 110.5 mg/dL) and prolongated prothrombin time (12.4 vs 11.6 s). Early-onset preeclampsia cases showed worse blood pressure control, with higher percentages of over-limit systolic blood pressure (17.9 vs. 11.2%, p < 0.01) and diastolic blood pressure (28.1 vs. 18.7%, p < 0.01) readings in 24 h. There were no significant differences in the vascular ultrasound studies as well as in the estimated cardiovascular risk obtained with the Framingham scales. At the visit time, a cardiovascular event was present in 44% women with history of early-onset preeclampsia vs 10% in the control group (p < 0.01). The most common event was chronic hypertension, with a relative risk of 4.7 (95% confidence interval 1.7-13.0) for the early-onset preeclampsia group.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia, compared to their matched controls, showed a greater risk of cardiovascular disease mainly at the expense of a 4.7-fold risk of developing chronic hypertension, with a median follow-up of 7.5 years after delivery.

Association Between Breastfeeding and Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

OBJECTIVE

To estimate whether breastfeeding is associated with the estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and whether this association varies with prior gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis from the prospective HAPO (Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome) Follow-Up Study. The exposure was any breastfeeding (yes or no). The primary outcomes, measured 10-14 years after delivery with the Framingham Risk Score, were estimated ASCVD risk (composite of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease and stroke) over the subsequent 10- and 30-year time periods. Multivariable linear regression models were used and adjusted for baseline pregnancy covariates: field center, age, body mass index (BMI), height, smoking and alcohol use, parity, and time from delivery to ASCVD risk assessment. Secondarily, we examined whether the association between breastfeeding and ASCVD varied by GDM status (effect modification).

RESULTS

Of 4,540 individuals, the median age was 30.6 years at baseline. More than three-fourths (79.7%) reported breastfeeding, which did not vary by GDM status (79.5% vs 81.0%). At 10-14 years after delivery (median 11.6 years), individuals who breastfed had a lower estimated risk of ASCVD over the subsequent 10 years (2.3% vs 2.5%, adjusted β -0.13, 95% CI, -0.25 to -0.02) and 30 years (6.2% vs 6.9%, adjusted β -0.36, 95% CI, -0.66 and -0.05). The association between breastfeeding and estimated ASCVD risk varied significantly by GDM status: The protective effect of breastfeeding was greater for individuals with GDM for estimated 10-year ASCVD risk (GDM: adjusted β -0.52, 95% CI, -0.98 and -0.05; no GDM: adjusted β -0.09, 95% CI, -0.20 and -0.02; interaction P=.004) and 30-year ASCVD risk (GDM: adjusted β -1.33, 95% CI, -2.53 and -0.14; no GDM: adjusted β -0.25, 95% CI, -0.54 and 0.03; interaction P=.003).

CONCLUSION

Breastfeeding, particularly after an individual had GDM, was associated with a lower estimated risk of long-term ASCVD. These findings indicate the potential benefit of breastfeeding for long-term cardiovascular health, especially among those with GDM.

Vigorous But Not Moderate Physical Activity Is Associated With Reduced Cardiovascular Disease Risk In Young Hispanic Men

Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans recommend at least 150 min/week of moderate (MPA) to vigorous (VPA) physical activity to maintain health, regardless of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study assessed whether physical activity (PA) intensity distinguishes between low and high CVD risk in 196 lean and obese Hispanic men aged 18-40 from the Study of Male Reproductive Epigenomics. PA was measured for 7 days using triaxial accelerometry. The 30-year "full" Framingham Risk Score (FRS) was calculated. Diet quality was assessed using the Healthy Eating Index (HEI-2020). Mean age was 30 ± 5 years with a median FRS of 14% (range: 3-85%). The high-risk group (n=89) had a mean full FRS of 20.3 ± 11.1%, compared to 7.0 ± 3.6% in the low-risk group (n=107; p<0.001). Both groups met guideline-recommended PA levels. However, the low-risk group performed more VPA (25 ± 20 vs 12 ± 12 min/day; p<0.001). Logistic regressions showed that each additional 1 min/day of VPA reduced the odds of high CVD risk by 4.4% (p=0.007), adjusted for smoking, diet, age and Body Mass Index (BMI), while MPA did not significantly predict CVD risk (p=0.823). Stepwise regressions showed that smoking status, BMI, VPA, and diet explained 47.8% of FRS variance (p<0.001), while MPA was excluded. In conclusion, VPA, but not MPA, significantly distinguished low from high CVD risk in young Hispanic men, highlighting the potential role of higher-intensity exercise to reduce CVD risk in this population.

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and gestational diabetes mellitus and predicted risk of maternal cardiovascular disease 10-14 years after delivery: A prospective cohort

AIMS

Studies evaluating the relationship between adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs), namely hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), with the estimated risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) remains limited and could inform patient-centred decision-making in the postpartum period. We examined whether HDP or GDM were associated with a higher 10- and 30-year predicted risk of ASCVD measured 10-14 years after delivery.

METHODS

A secondary analysis from the international prospective Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome Follow-up Study (2013-2016) cohort. The exposures were HDP or GDM (untreated according to the International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups criteria). Outcomes were 10- and 30-year predicted risk of ASCVD (composite of fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and stroke) as quantified by the validated Framingham Risk Score as a continuous measure, and secondarily, at thresholds used for clinical decision-making of ≥7.5% for 10-year predicted risk and ≥20% for 30-year predicted risk.

RESULTS

Of 4432 individuals at a median age of 30.5 years and a median gestational age of 27.9 weeks at pregnancy enrollment, 10.7% developed HDP and 13.7% developed GDM. At 10-14 years after delivery, individuals with HDP had a higher 10-year predicted risk of ASCVD (least squares mean: 2.9% vs. 2.2%; adj. β: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.41-0.77) and a higher 30-year predicted risk of ASCVD (7.7% vs. 6.1%; adj. β: 1.27; 95% CI: 0.81-1.72) compared with those without HDP. Similarly, individuals with GDM had a higher predicted risk of ASCVD (10-year: 3.2% vs. 2.1%; adj. β: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.34-0.67 and 30-year: 8.8% vs. 5.8%; adj. β: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.11-2.01) compared with those without GDM. These results were similar when predicted ASCVD risk was assessed at thresholds of ≥7.5% at 10 years and ≥20% at 30 years.

CONCLUSION

Individuals who experienced HDP or GDM had a higher predicted 10- and 30-year risk of ASCVD measured 10-14 years after delivery compared with individuals who did not experience these APOs.

Expert-Reviewed Nutritional Guidance for Adults with Spinal Cord Injury: A Delphi Study

Background/Objectives: Nutritional needs for people with chronic spinal cord injury (SCI) are inadequately addressed due to the lack of comprehensive evidence and scattered research. We established a consensus-based framework for addressing the nutritional needs of community-dwelling adults with chronic SCI who can ingest food orally. Methods: A web-based Delphi design was employed to ascertain an expert consensus. The Delphi panel consisted of physicians, registered dietitians (RDs), and researchers knowledgeable in SCI and nutrition. Informed by a literature review, 18 nutrition statements were rated by 15 panelists. The survey included statements about SCI-specific dietary energy assessments and macro- and micronutrients. Results: The response rate for the panel (N = 15) was 100%. Consensus levels, scores, stability levels, and response numbers were documented for each statement. The statements received consensus scores ranging from 4.14 to 8.13 on a 9-point Likert scale. Alternative expert comments and suggestions were also provided for each statement. Conclusion: Engaging a diverse panel of experts, the real-time Delphi process yielded expert-reviewed nutrition statements based on an extensive literature review and expert opinions. The rated statements contribute to the ongoing dialogue in SCI-specific nutrition, providing a practical resource for healthcare professionals working with adults with chronic SCI.

Multiomics Analysis of a Micronutrient-Rich Dietary Pattern and the Aging Genotype 9p21 on the Plasma Proteome of Young Adults

Background: Diet is one of the most significant modifiable lifestyle factors influencing human health, contributing to both morbidity and mortality. Genetic variations in the pleiotropic 9p21 risk locus further shape premature aging, disease susceptibility, and have been strongly linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD), metabolic disorders, certain cancers, and neurodegenerative conditions. However, given that this region was discovered based on Genome-Wide Association Studies, the mechanisms by which 9p21 exerts its effects remain poorly understood and its interactions with diet and biomarkers are insufficiently explored. Methods: This study investigated the association between the rs2383206 SNP in 9p21, dietary patterns, and plasma proteomic biomarkers in a multi-ethnic cohort of 1280 young adults from the Toronto Nutrigenomics and Health Study. Participants' dietary intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire, and dietary patterns were categorized using principal component analysis. Plasma proteomics analyses quantified 54 abundant proteins involved in the cardiometabolic and inflammatory pathways. Genotyping identified individuals who were homozygous for the 9p21 risk allele (GG), known to confer the highest susceptibility risk to premature aging and multiple chronic diseases. Results: A significant interaction was observed between the 9p21 genotype and adherence to a micronutrient-rich Prudent dietary pattern for eight plasma proteins (α1 Antichymotrypsin, Complement C4 β chain, Complement C4 γ chain, Complement C9, Fibrinogen α chain, Hemopexin, and Serum amyloid P-component). However, only Complement C4-γ showed a pattern consistent with the risks associated with the 9p21 genotype and adherence to a Prudent diet. Individuals with the high-risk GG genotype had significantly higher concentrations of Complement C4-γ, but only among those with a low adherence to a Prudent diet. Conclusions: These findings suggest that Prudent dietary patterns rich in micronutrients may counteract genetic-mediated proinflammatory susceptibility by modulating key proteomic biomarkers in young adults, highlighting the potential for tailored dietary interventions to mitigate disease risk. This study also introduces a novel framework for post hoc micronutrient resolution within dietary pattern analysis, offering a new lens to interpret nutrient synergies in gene-diet interaction research.

Pregnancy-Induced Hypertension and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score in China

Background

Pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) poses a significant threat to maternal health. This study aims to explore the association between PIH and the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

Methods

The cohort comprised 1947 pregnant women delivering a single child between 2004 and 2020 in the Kailuan study. Participants, categorized into PIH and non-PIH (NPIH) groups based on PIH history, completed questionnaires and underwent physical examinations and laboratory assessments within 2 years after delivery. Predicted ASCVD risks used the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR) model, distinguishing lifetime ASCVD risk as "low" (<32.8%) and "high" (≥32.8%). χ2 tests and logistic regression were used to investigate the association between PIH and high lifetime risk China-PAR categories.

Results

Overall, 6.17% of the PIH group had high lifetime risk, compared with 0.96% in the NPIH group (χ2 29.59, P < 0.001). After adjusting for confounders, PIH was independently associated with high-risk China-PAR categories, with the PIH group having a 5.03 times higher probability than the NPIH group (95% CI 2.20-11.51, P < 0.01).

Conclusion

Pregnancy-induced hypertension was associated with increased lifetime risk of ASCVD.

Concordance Indices for Risk Scores With Policy Evaluations

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate the differences between concordance index (C-index) methodologies and clarify the appropriate usage for risk score evaluations in health services applications.

STUDY SETTING AND DESIGN

We performed a methodological comparison of C-index metrics and illustrated the consequences of these differences through a study of liver failure patients.

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYTIC SAMPLE

We analyzed secondary adult liver transplant registry data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN), including all waitlist registrations from 2002 to 2022.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The recommended concordance metric based on Gerds' weighting was higher for the original model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) than Harrell's C-Index, Uno's C-Index, and naïve binary outcome metrics (0.864 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.840, 0.888] versus 0.854 [95% CI: 0.844, 0.864], 0.832 [95% CI: 0.819, 0.844], and 0.727 [95% CI: 0.715, 0.740]), and it did not increase after the latest MELD formula update (0.874 [95% CI: 0.859, 0.889] to 0.869 [95% CI: 0.853, 0.885]).

CONCLUSIONS

The concordance indices that are often used in health services applications have important deficiencies under policy-related dependent censoring, and researchers must apply appropriate weighting schemes to avoid bias. The findings uncover new interpretations of past evaluation results that have shaped national liver transplant policies.

Mapping the impact of age and APOE risk factors for late onset Alzheimer's disease on long range brain connections through multiscale bundle analysis

Alzheimer's disease currently has no cure and is usually detected too late for interventions to be effective. In this study we have focused on cognitively normal subjects to study the impact of risk factors on their long-range brain connections. To detect vulnerable connections, we devised a multiscale, hierarchical method for spatial clustering of the whole brain tractogram and examined the impact of age and APOE allelic variation on cognitive abilities and bundle properties including texture e.g., mean fractional anisotropy, variability, and geometric properties including streamline length, volume, shape, as well as asymmetry. We found that the third level subdivision in the bundle hierarchy provided the most sensitive ability to detect age and genotype differences associated with risk factors. Our results indicate that frontal bundles were a major age predictor, while the occipital cortex and cerebellar connections were important risk predictors that were heavily genotype dependent, and showed accelerated decline in fractional anisotropy, shape similarity, and increased asymmetry. Cognitive metrics related to olfactory memory were mapped to bundles, providing possible early markers of neurodegeneration. In addition, physiological metrics associated with cardiovascular disease risk were associated with changes in white matter tracts. Our novel method for a data driven analysis of sensitive changes in tractography may differentiate populations at risk for AD and isolate specific vulnerable networks.

Are We Able to Optimize Outcomes and Predict Complications in Pelvic Floor Surgery With a Better Understanding of Hormonal, Microbial and Other Factors? A Report From the ICI-RS 2024

INTRODUCTION

Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) is a common condition, affecting women worldwide and is known to have a significant impact on Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). Although there are various treatment options available, including pelvic floor muscle training and support pessaries, many women opt for or require surgery, with a lifetime risk of needing surgery of 12%-19%. As with any operation, this does not come without its complications and the reoperation rate following POP surgery is up to 36%. This International Consultation on Incontinence-Research Society (ICI-RS) report aims to look at the different factors which may play a role in objective and subjective outcomes following pelvic floor surgery and to summarize the evidence and uncertainties regarding prediction of POP surgical outcomes, how to optimize them and the tools available to predict them. Research question proposals to further this field have been highlighted.

METHODS

At ICI-RS 2024, the evidence for predicting the outcomes from POP surgery and methods to optimize outcomes were discussed and presented in this paper.

RESULTS

There are many reasons why POP surgery may fail, such as variations in lifestyle and occupation, persistent constipation, failure in the perineal body, connective tissue types or the shape of the pelvis. There may also be inherent conditions of the vagina, such as hormonal or microbial features. The literature lacks evidence about the potential use of advanced statistical modeling or supervised machine learning in the development of management plans for patients with POP. Furthermore, future research is needed to determine the role of UDS in the preoperative evaluation of POP patients.

CONCLUSIONS

High-quality powered studies are required to assess optimization for long-term outcomes of pelvic surgery and then, once these are well established, and possible interventions are elucidated, prediction modeling can have a real impact clinically.

Subphenotypes of body composition and their association with cardiometabolic risk - Magnetic resonance imaging in a population-based sample

BACKGROUND

For characterizing health states, fat distribution is more informative than overall body size. We used population-based whole-body magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify distinct body composition subphenotypes and characterize associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

METHODS

Bone marrow, visceral, subcutaneous, cardiac, renal, hepatic, skeletal muscle and pancreatic adipose tissue were measured by MRI in n = 299 individuals from the population-based KORA cohort. Body composition subphenotypes were identified by data-driven k-means clustering. CVD risk was calculated by established scores.

RESULTS

We identified five body composition subphenotypes, which differed substantially in CVD risk factor distribution and CVD risk. Compared to reference subphenotype I with favorable risk profile, two high-risk phenotypes, III&V, had a 3.8-fold increased CVD risk. High-risk subphenotype III had increased bone marrow and skeletal muscle fat (26.3 % vs 11.4 % in subphenotype I), indicating ageing effects, whereas subphenotype V showed overall high fat contents, and particularly elevated pancreatic fat (25.0 % vs 3.7 % in subphenotype I), indicating metabolic impairment. Subphenotype II had a 2.7-fold increased CVD risk, and an unfavorable fat distribution, probably smoking-related, while BMI was only slightly elevated. Subphenotype IV had a 2.8-fold increased CVD risk with comparably young individuals, who showed high blood pressure and hepatic fat (17.7 % vs 3.0 % in subphenotype I).

CONCLUSIONS

Whole-body MRI can identify distinct body composition subphenotypes associated with different degrees of cardiometabolic risk. Body composition profiling may enable a more comprehensive risk assessment than individual fat compartments, with potential benefits for individualized prevention.

Exploring the impact of insurance switching on the cost-effectiveness of population genetic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia to US payers

BACKGROUND

Widespread familial hypercholesterolemia screening requires a large upfront economic investment, but the health benefits and cost savings of cardiovascular disease prevention directed by screening occur over many years.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of population genetic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia compared to cascade testing to US payers while accounting for patient insurance switching between commercial and Medicare insurance.

METHODS

We developed a hybrid decision-tree Markov model to assess genetic screening in 20-year-old adults over a lifetime horizon in which cohort members transitioned between commercial payers representing 3 commercial plans and Medicare. Health state and coverage transition probabilities, utilities, and event costs were primarily sourced from published literature. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per quality-adjusted life year gained and conducted probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analyses to explore parameters.

RESULTS

Population genetic screening cost an additional $1,024,126, $495,909, and $479,170 per quality-adjusted life year gained for the high, medium, and low benefit commercial payers. Medicare experienced both cost savings and greater quality-adjusted life years in its members under population genetic screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Insurance switching substantially affects the cost-effectiveness of population genetic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia to US payers. Future research examining screening and treatments for other rare diseases that require high investment early in life for downstream health benefits should consider the impact of insurance switching in the US.

COPD and cardiovascular risk

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) usually presents joined to other pathologies we call comorbidities. The more frequent of them are those related to cardiovascular risk, either its risk factors or its clinical manifestations. Cardiovascular risk of these patients grows up with the severity of the airflow obstruction, specially during and after an exacerbation of COPD. Patients with COPD have between 2 and 5 times more risk of ischaemic heart disease than people without COPD, even after adjusting for cofounding factors. Cardiovascular diseases are up to the second cause of mortality in these patients, close to those due to the lung disease. Although COPD is associated to several cardiovascular risk factors such as tobacco, arterial hypertension or Diabetes Mellitus, they don't explain all the excess in cardiovascular risk these patients have. Despite that excess of cardiovascular risk in COPD patients, most widely used cardiovascular risk scores don't include COPD as a risk factor itself, so global risk is understimated in these patients. In this review, we make a bibliography revision of the avaliable evidence about COPD and cardiovascular risk factors as well as the excess of cardiovascular risk COPD itself involves.

Non-HDL-C, Symptomatic Intracranial Arterial Stenosis, and Recurrent Vascular Risk in Minor Stroke

AIM

We aimed to assess the association between non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) and symptomatic intracranial artery stenosis (sICAS), as well as the impact of non-HDL-C on recurrent vascular events in patients with mild ischemic stroke ( NIHSS score ≤ 5).

METHODS

This prospective study was based on data from patients presenting within 72 hours of stroke occurrence. We included patients admitted to 8 Chinese hospitals between September 2019 and November 2021. The associations of non-HDL-C with sICAS and recurrent vascular risk were assessed using multivariate regression models and a restricted cubic spline analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 2,544 patients analyzed at 12 months, 652 (25.6%) were diagnosed with sICAS. Elevated non-HDL-C was linked to a higher incidence of sICAS, and the adjusted odd ratios for quintile variables and continuous variables were 1.36 ([95% CI, 1.01-1.81]) and 1.14 ([95% CI, 1.04-1.24). In comparison to those in the first quintile, the adjusted hazard ratio of the fifth quintile of non-HDL-C was 1.19 ([95% CI 0.78-1.80]) for recurrent ischemic stroke and was 0.39 ([95% CI, 0.17-0.91]) for intracranialhemorrhage.

CONCLUSIONS

The non-HDL-C level may be a useful predictor of sICAS. Higher non-HDL-C levels may be associated with a lower risk of intracranial hemorrhage in mild, noncardiogenic stroke, but not a higher risk of recurrent ischemic stroke.

Socioeconomic disadvantage in pregnancy and postpartum risk of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Pregnancy is an educable and actionable life stage to address social determinants of health (SDOH) and lifelong cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. However, the link between a risk score that combines multiple neighborhood-level social determinants in pregnancy and the risk of long-term CVD remains to be evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage measured by the Area Deprivation Index (ADI) in early pregnancy is associated with a higher 30-year predicted risk of CVD postpartum, as measured by the Framingham Risk Score.

STUDY DESIGN

An analysis of data from the prospective Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study-Monitoring Mothers-to-Be Heart Health Study longitudinal cohort. Participant home addresses during early pregnancy were geocoded at the Census-block level. The exposure was neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage using the 2015 ADI by tertile (least deprived [T1], reference; most deprived [T3]) measured in the first trimester. Outcomes were the predicted 30-year risks of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD, composite of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease and stroke) and total CVD (composite of ASCVD plus coronary insufficiency, angina pectoris, transient ischemic attack, intermittent claudication, and heart failure) using the Framingham Risk Score measured 2 to 7 years after delivery. These outcomes were assessed as continuous measures of absolute estimated risk in increments of 1%, and, secondarily, as categorical measures with high-risk defined as an estimated probability of CVD ≥10%. Multivariable linear regression and modified Poisson regression models adjusted for baseline age and individual-level social determinants, including health insurance, educational attainment, and household poverty.

RESULTS

Among 4309 nulliparous individuals at baseline, the median age was 27 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 23-31) and the median ADI was 43 (IQR: 22-74). At 2 to 7 years postpartum (median: 3.1 years, IQR: 2.5, 3.7), the median 30-year risk of ASCVD was 2.3% (IQR: 1.5, 3.5) and of total CVD was 5.5% (IQR: 3.7, 7.9); 2.2% and 14.3% of individuals had predicted 30-year risk ≥10%, respectively. Individuals living in the highest ADI tertile had a higher predicted risk of 30-year ASCVD % (adjusted ß: 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19, 0.63) compared with those in the lowest tertile; and those living in the top 2 ADI tertiles had higher absolute risks of 30-year total CVD % (T2: adj. ß: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.72; T3: adj. ß: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.36, 1.13). Similarly, individuals living in neighborhoods in the highest ADI tertile were more likely to have a high 30-year predicted risk of ASCVD (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]: 2.21; 95% CI: 1.21, 4.02) and total CVD ≥10% (aRR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.69).

CONCLUSION

Neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage in early pregnancy was associated with a higher estimated long-term risk of CVD postpartum. Incorporating aggregated SDOH into existing clinical workflows and future research in pregnancy could reduce disparities in maternal cardiovascular health across the lifespan, and requires further study.

Predicted Heart Age and Life's Essential 8 Among U.S. Adults: NHANES 2015-March 2020

INTRODUCTION

This study examined the association between American Heart Association's (AHA) cardiovascular health (CVH) metrics, Life's Essential 8 (LE8), and predicted heart age among U.S. adults.

METHODS

The sample comprised 7,075 participants aged 30-74 years without CVD and/or stroke from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2015-March 2020. LE8 was measured according to AHA's metrics (overall score ranging from 0 to 100 points), and nonlaboratory-based Framingham Risk Score was used to estimate predicted heart age. Analyses were completed in June 2024.

RESULTS

Median LE8 scores were 62.8 for men and 66.0 for women. Over 80% of participants had less than optimal CVH scores, affecting 141.5 million people and 1-in-6 participants had a low CVH score, impacting 30.0 million people. Mean predicted heart age and excess heart age (EHA, difference between actual and predicted heart age) were 56.6 (95% CI 56.1-57.1) and 8.6 (8.1-9.1) years for men and 54.0 (53.4-54.7) and 5.9 (5.2-6.5) years for women. Participants in the low CVH group (scores<50), had an EHA that was 20.7 years higher than those in the high CVH group (score 80-100). Compared to the high CVH group, participants in low CVH group had 15 times (for men) and 44 times (for women) higher risk of having EHA ≥10 years. The pattern of differences in predicted heart age, EHA, and prevalence of EHA ≥10 years by LE8 groups remained largely consistent across subpopulations.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle to improve cardiovascular health and reduce excess heart age.

A Life Course Approach to Cardiovascular Disease Prevention

ABSTRACT

During the past 3 decades, life course socio-ecological frameworks have received considerable attention from clinical and public health professionals; developmental, social, and behavioral scientists; and scholars. Substantial evidence underscores the importance of a life course approach to prevention of cardiovascular (CV) disease and the promotion of optimal CV health. This article provides an overview of evidence on early origins and progression of CV disease (CVD) processes across the life course of individuals from diverse populations. Emphasis is placed on the evidence-based guidelines designed to prevent CVD and promote CV health with recommendations for implementation by CV health professionals and directions for future research in global CVD prevention.

Machine-learning-based prediction of cardiovascular events for hyperlipidemia population with lipid variability and remnant cholesterol as biomarkers

Purpose

Dyslipidemia poses a significant risk for the progression to cardiovascular diseases. Despite the identification of numerous risk factors and the proposal of various risk scales, there is still an urgent need for effective predictive models for the onset of cardiovascular diseases in the hyperlipidemic population, which are essential for the prevention of CVD.

Methods

We carried out a retrospective cohort study with 23,548 hyperlipidemia patients in Shenzhen Health Information Big Data Platform, including 11,723 CVD onset cases in a 3-year follow-up. The population was randomly divided into 70% as an independent training dataset and remaining 30% as test set. Four distinct machine-learning algorithms were implemented on the training dataset with the aim of developing highly accurate predictive models, and their performance was subsequently benchmarked against conventional risk assessment scales. An ablation study was also carried out to analyze the impact of individual risk factors to model performance.

Results

The non-linear algorithm, LightGBM, excelled in forecasting the incidence of cardiovascular disease within 3 years, achieving an area under the 'receiver operating characteristic curve' (AUROC) of 0.883. This performance surpassed that of the conventional logistic regression model, which had an AUROC of 0.725, on identical datasets. Concurrently, in direct comparative analyses, machine-learning approaches have notably outperformed the three traditional risk assessment methods within their respective applicable populations. These include the Framingham cardiovascular disease risk score, 2019 ESC/EAS guidelines for the management of dyslipidemia and the 2016 Chinese recommendations for the management of dyslipidemia in adults. Further analysis of risk factors showed that the variability of blood lipid levels and remnant cholesterol played an important role in indicating an increased risk of CVD.

Conclusions

We have shown that the application of machine-learning techniques significantly enhances the precision of cardiovascular risk forecasting among hyperlipidemic patients, addressing the critical issue of disease prediction's heterogeneity and non-linearity. Furthermore, some recently-suggested biomarkers, including blood lipid variability and remnant cholesterol are also important predictors of cardiovascular events, suggesting the importance of continuous lipid monitoring and healthcare profiling through big data platforms.

Multi-modality risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases for breast cancer cohort in the All of Us Research Program

OBJECTIVE

This study leverages the rich diversity of the All of Us Research Program (All of Us)'s dataset to devise a predictive model for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors. Central to this endeavor is the creation of a robust data integration pipeline that synthesizes electronic health records (EHRs), patient surveys, and genomic data, while upholding fairness across demographic variables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We have developed a universal data wrangling pipeline to process and merge heterogeneous data sources of the All of Us dataset, address missingness and variance in data, and align disparate data modalities into a coherent framework for analysis. Utilizing a composite feature set including EHR, lifestyle, and social determinants of health (SDoH) data, we then employed Adaptive Lasso and Random Forest regression models to predict 6 CVD outcomes. The models were evaluated using the c-index and time-dependent Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve over a 10-year period.

RESULTS

The Adaptive Lasso model showed consistent performance across most CVD outcomes, while the Random Forest model excelled particularly in predicting outcomes like transient ischemic attack when incorporating the full multi-model feature set. Feature importance analysis revealed age and previous coronary events as dominant predictors across CVD outcomes, with SDoH clustering labels highlighting the nuanced impact of social factors.

DISCUSSION

The development of both Cox-based predictive model and Random Forest Regression model represents the extensive application of the All of Us, in integrating EHR and patient surveys to enhance precision medicine. And the inclusion of SDoH clustering labels revealed the significant impact of sociobehavioral factors on patient outcomes, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive health determinants in predictive models. Despite these advancements, limitations include the exclusion of genetic data, broad categorization of CVD conditions, and the need for fairness analyses to ensure equitable model performance across diverse populations. Future work should refine clinical and social variable measurements, incorporate advanced imputation techniques, and explore additional predictive algorithms to enhance model precision and fairness.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the liability of the All of Us's diverse dataset in developing a multi-modality predictive model for CVD in BC survivors risk stratification in oncological survivorship. The data integration pipeline and subsequent predictive models establish a methodological foundation for future research into personalized healthcare.

Association Between Kidney Stone History and Cardiovascular Event Risk in US Adults

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between kidney stone history and predicted 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in a nationally representative US adult sample without existing CVD.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study of the 2017-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey that included a nationally representative sample of 3842 adults aged 40-79 free from CVD. Kidney stone history was assessed through self-reporting. The 10-year risk of an atherosclerotic CVD event was predicted using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort Equations.

RESULTS

The weighted prevalence of kidney stones was 12.2% (95% CI: 10.5% to 14.1%). In unadjusted analysis, the odds of borderline or higher (≥5%) atherosclerotic CVD risk were higher in stone formers (odds ratio=1.56; 95% CI 1.01-2.40; P = .046). This association persisted after adjustment for demographics and clinical covariates (adjusted odds ratio=1.57; 95% CI=1.02 to 2.43; P = .04). A significant interaction by biological sex was identified (P = .002), with excess risk conferred by kidney stones in males but not females.

CONCLUSION

Kidney stone history was independently associated with increased 10-year predicted atherosclerotic CVD event risk, with excess risk observed among males but not females. Intensified CVD screening may be warranted among stone formers given their increased cardiovascular risk.

Screening of CAD-related secretory genes associated with type II diabetes based on comprehensive bioinformatics analysis and machine learning

BACKGROUND

Type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is strongly linked with a heightened risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Exploring biological targets common to T2DM and CAD is essential for CAD intervention strategies.

METHODS

RNA transcriptome data from CAD and T2DM patients and single-cell transcriptional data from myocardial tissue of CAD patients were used for bioinformatics analysis. Differential analysis and Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) were conducted to identify hub genes associated with the CAD Index (CADi) in these cells. We then intersected these genes with differentially expressed genes in the T2DM dataset to validate the key gene FGF7. Additional analyses included immune analysis, drug sensitivity, competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) networks, and smooth muscle cell -related functional analysis.

RESULTS

An abnormally high proportion of smooth muscle cells was observed in CAD tissues compared to normal cardiomyocytes. The gene FGF7, which encodes the keratinocyte growth factor 7 protein, showed increased expression in both CAD and T2DM and was significantly positively correlated with the CADi (correlation = 0.24, p < 0.05). FGF7 expression was inversely correlated with CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell immune infiltration and correlated with the cardiovascular drugs. Overexpression of FGF7 in CAD samples enhanced interactions with mononuclear macrophages and influenced the metabolism of alanine, glutamate, nicotinamide, and retinol. We also identified that hsa-miR-15a-5p, hsa-miR-373-3p, hsa-miR-20a-5p, and hsa-miR-372-3p could regulate FGF7 expression.

CONCLUSION

FGF7 serves as a critical shared biological target for T2DM and CAD, playing a significant role in CAD progression with potential therapeutic implications.

Antenatal Glycemic Management and Postpartum Cardiovascular Disease Risk Screening

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to evaluate the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profiles of patients referred to the Maternal Health Clinic (MHC) with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

METHODS

Eligible patients had their MHC appointment at 6 months postpartum between November 2011 and May 2022 and experienced GDM in their most recent pregnancy. Included participants were then divided into subgroups comparing methods of glycemic control: diet-controlled GDM and insulin-controlled GDM. Additionally, the MHC recruited 47 patients who have not experienced a complication in pregnancy to act as a comparator group in research studies. Demographics, medical and pregnancy history, and CVD risk scores were compared between the 3 groups.

RESULTS

In total, 344 patients with GDM were included in the analysis; 165 were insulin-controlled and 179 diet-controlled. When measuring the median 30-year Framingham risk score based on both BMI and lipids, there was a significant stepwise increase seen from the unexposed group, the diet-controlled GDM, and the insulin-controlled groups, respectively (all P < 0.05). The presence of metabolic syndrome showed a stepwise increase in prevalence when comparing the unexposed group, diet-exposure group, and the insulin-exposure group, respectively (16.7%; 21.5%-44.8%, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reinforce the prevalence of maternal CVD risk among GDM-diagnosed patients in the postpartum period and the necessity for screening. More specifically, our findings show how CVD risk may differ based on required interventions for glycemic control throughout pregnancy. Future research should aim to compare a more diverse patient population to optimise the generalizability of glycemic control-specific CVD outcomes.

Serum peroxiredoxin-4, a biomarker of oxidative stress, associates with new-onset chronic kidney disease: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), is often detected late due to its asymptomatic nature in the early stage of the disease. Overproduction of reactive oxygen species contributes to various pathological processes through oxidative stress (OS), impacting on cellular structures and functions with previous studies suggesting a link between OS and CKD progression. This study investigated the association between serum peroxiredoxin-4 (Prx4), a biomarker of oxidative stress, and the development of CKD in the general population.

METHODS

This study featured data from the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort, involving 5341 participants without CKD at baseline who underwent extensive prospective health evaluations. Serum Prx4 levels were quantified using an immunoluminometric assay. The primary outcome was new-onset CKD as defined by the composite of urinary albumin excretion (UAE) > 30 mg/24-h, an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, or both.

RESULTS

Baseline median Prx4 level was 0.65 [interquartile range (IQR): 0.42-1.04] U/L, median eGFR was 98 [IQR: 87-108] mL/min/1.73 m2, and median UAE was 8.1 [IQR: 6.0-12.1] mg/L. During a median follow-up of 10.4 [IQR: 6.3-11.4] years, 867 (16.2 %) patients developed new-onset CKD. Higher Prx4 levels were significantly associated with an increased risk of CKD (hazard ratio (HR) per doubling: 1.29 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.21-1.37], p < 0.001), also after adjustment for risk factors including sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, chronic heart failure, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidemia (HR per doubling: 1.16 [1.06-1.24], p < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the hypothesis that systemic oxidative stress, reflected by higher serum Prx4 levels, is significantly associated with the risk of developing CKD in the general population. These findings suggest that Prx4 could be a valuable biomarker for early risk stratification and prevention strategies in CKD management.

A single risk assessment for the most common diseases of ageing, developed and validated on 10 cohort studies

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop risk tools for dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and diabetes, for adults aged ≥ 65 years using shared risk factors.

METHODS

Data were obtained from 10 population-based cohorts (N = 41,755) with median follow-up time (years) for dementia, stroke, MI, and diabetes of 6.2, 7.0, 6.8, and 7.4, respectively. Disease-free participants at baseline were included, and 22 risk factors (sociodemographic, medical, lifestyle, laboratory biomarkers) were evaluated. Two risk tools (DemNCD and DemNCD-LR based on Fine and Gray sub-distribution and logistic regression [LR], respectively) were developed and validated. Predictive accuracies of these risk tools were assessed using Harrel's C-statistics and area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Model calibration was conducted using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test along calibration plots.

RESULTS

Both the DemNCD and DemNCD-LR resulted in similar predictive accuracy for each outcome. The overall AUC (95% CI) for dementia, stroke, MI, and diabetes risk tool were 0·68 (0·65, 0·70), 0·58 (0·54, 0·61), 0·65 (0·61, 0·68), and 0·68 (0·64, 0·72), respectively, for males. For females, these figures were 0·65 (0·63, 0·67), 0·55 (0·52, 0·57), 0·65 (0·62, 0·68), and 0·61 (0·57, 0·65).

CONCLUSIONS

The DemNCD is the first tool to predict both dementia and multiple cardio-metabolic diseases using comprehensive risk factors and provided similar predictive accuracy to existing risk tools. It has similar predictive accuracy as tools designed for single outcomes in this age-group. DemNCD has the potential to be used in community and clinical settings as it includes self-reported and routinely available clinical measures.

Predicting cardiometabolic disease in medical students using FibroScan and 30-year Framingham risk scores

Introduction

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) has become a major cause of end-stage hepatic disease worldwide requiring liver transplantation, whereas cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Development of MASLD and CVD among young adults is understudied. This study aimed to assess CVD risk in healthy young medical university students using lipid-based and body mass index (BMI)-based 30-year Framingham risk scores (FS30) and to evaluate disease burden for asymptomatic patients with MASLD by performing FibroScan.

Methods

We included medical university students aged 18-30 years without any known medical conditions. All participants underwent physical and anthropometric measurements, and completed a questionnaire. Blood samples were collected for the analysis of glycosylated haemoglobin levels, renal and liver function, biomarker analysis to calculate liver fibrosis risk, and subclinical atherosclerosis biomarkers. Liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) values were measured using FibroScan 430 mini to calculate liver fibrosis and steatosis, respectively. FS30 based on body mass index (FS30-BMI) and lipid levels (FS30-Lipid) were also calculated.

Results

Overall, 138 medical students participated in this study after providing informed consent. Using FS30-Lipid and FS30-BMI, CVD risk was identified in two (1.5%; n = 138) and 23 (17.6%; n = 132) individuals, respectively. MASLD fibrosis was identified based on FibroScan LSMs >7.0 kPa in 12 medical students (9.4%, n = 128; 95% CI, 4.7-14.8%). Consumption of coffee and sugary soft drinks were predictive of liver fibrosis. In total, 36 students (28.6%; n = 128) were found to have hepatic steatosis based on FibroScan CAP values >236 dB, and the predictive factors included increased body fat percentage, male sex, and lack of physical activity. Levels of inflammatory biomarkers, such as C-reactive protein and lipids were not elevated in participants with MASLD.

Discussion

CVD risk was identified in >17% of young medical students. The frequency of liver fibrosis and steatosis was also high among the participants, indicating that liver damage starts at a relatively early age. Early intervention is needed among young adults via health promotion and lifestyle changes.

School Segregation During Adolescence is Associated with Higher 30-Year Cardiovascular Risk of Black but not White Young Adults

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates are declining for American adults, a disparity remains between non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White adults. Previous research has shown that residential segregation, a form of structural racism, experienced in childhood is associated with later-life racial and ethnic health disparities, including disparities in CVD and its risk factors. However, little is known about the health consequences of exposure to segregated schools, especially among those living in neighborhoods with high concentrations of minoritized people. This study used data from the In-School, Wave I, and Wave IV surveys of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to examine a novel school measure of school racial segregation (Index of the Concentration of Extremes, ICE) as a predictor of Framingham 30-year CVD risk scores. We used General Estimating Equation models to evaluate the association between ICE, measured at Wave I, and two different 30-year CVD risk scores, measured at Wave IV, and examined whether the relationship varied by race. We observed that higher levels of school segregation were associated with a higher 30-year CVD risk among non-Hispanic Black participants while higher segregation was associated with a lower 30-year CVD risk for non-Hispanic White participants. This research suggests that exposure to segregation in the school setting may contribute to observed disparities in CVD among US adults.

Association Between Obesity and Risk of Total and Obesity-Related Cancer in People With Incident Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer frequently co-occur due to shared risk factors such as obesity, which is linked to CVD and 14 cancer types. This study explores whether CVD pathophysiologies, combined with obesity, increase cancer risk, impacting clinical management.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study, spanning 28 years, were analyzed. The cohort included 5127 participants with incident CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, coronary heart disease), of whom 1511 developed a first primary cancer. Follow-up began at CVD diagnosis after Visit 1. Obesity was assessed using body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio. Incidence rate differences between obesity groups were adjusted for age, sex, and center, whereas the obesity-cancer association was estimated using Fine-Gray regression adjusted for shared risk factors including smoking. Cancer incidence in obese individuals with CVD (body mass index: rate differences=226.6/100 000 person-years) was higher than in those with normal weight. Although obesity was not linked to overall cancer after adjusting for shared risk factors, it was nominally associated with obesity-related cancers. Specifically, women with CVD and obesity had increased obesity-related cancer risk (body mass index: hazard ratio, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.17-2.31]). No significant associations were found in men, even after excluding prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that obesity is linked to higher obesity-related cancer risk in women with incident CVD, independent of shared risk factors. Further research is needed to eliminate residual confounding, understand sex differences, and explore how CVD pathophysiologies and obesity together influence cancer risk.

Structural inequality modifies midlife outcomes of a multisystemic early childhood program

INTRODUCTION

The role of structural inequalities in the long-term benefits of early childhood programs has not been assessed. Previous findings in the Chicago Longitudinal Study, an early childhood cohort investigation with low-income families, indicate that Child-Parent Center (CPC) participation beginning in preschool was associated with a variety of positive health behaviors. In this secondary analysis, we assessed if structural inequalities (neighborhood poverty, history of discrimination) modified the magnitude of associations between CPC and health and education outcomes (cardiovascular health, body mass index, educational attainment) 30 years later.

METHOD

The Chicago Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,539 children (93% Black, 7% Hispanic) grew up in high-poverty neighborhoods and attended CPCs or the usual district programs. At midlife (ages 32-37, M = 34.9 years, 2012-2017), 1,073 participants completed telephone interviews on structural inequalities, health, and education. Regression analyses were conducted with inverse propensity score weighting.

RESULTS

After accounting for structural inequality, CPC participation was significantly associated with outcomes. Mean differences on Framingham risk scores, for example, were significant for CPC preschool at ages 3 and 4 (coefficient = -2.15, p = .004, standardized difference = -0.20). Neighborhood poverty moderated (reduced) the association between CPC and cardiovascular health. Neighborhood poverty and perceived discrimination had independent contributions with outcomes.

DISCUSSION

Findings show that structural inequalities, especially poverty, directly influence and/or moderate long-term effects of CPC participation. Increasing neighborhood resources and socioeconomic status may help comprehensive programs sustain their impacts. Early childhood and sociostructural influences reflect the increasing importance of community contexts to health promotion. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Associations of an HDL apolipoproteomic index with cardiometabolic risk factors before and after exercise training in the HERITAGE Family Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous studies have derived and validated an HDL apolipoproteomic score (pCAD) that predicts coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. However, the associations between pCAD and markers of cardiometabolic health in healthy adults are not known, nor are the effects of regular exercise on pCAD.

METHODS

A total of 641 physically inactive adults free of cardiovascular disease from the HERITAGE Family Study completed 20 weeks of exercise training. The pCAD index (range 0-100) was calculated using measurements of apolipoproteins A-I, C-I, C-II, C-III, and C-IV from ApoA-I-tagged serum (higher index = higher CAD risk). The associations between pCAD index and cardiometabolic traits at baseline and their training responses were assessed with Spearman correlation and general linear models. A Bonferroni correction of p < 8.9 × 10-04 was used to determine statistical significance.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD baseline pCAD index was 29 ± 32, with 106 (16.5 %) participants classified as high CAD risk. At baseline, pCAD index was positively associated with blood pressure, systemic inflammation, and body composition. HDL size, VO2max, and HDL-C were negatively associated with pCAD index at baseline. Of those classified as high CAD risk at baseline, 52 (49 %) were reclassified as normal risk after training. Following training, pCAD index changes were inversely correlated (p < 1.4 × 10-04) with changes in HDL-C, HDL size, and LDL size.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher pCAD index was associated with a worse cardiometabolic profile at baseline but improved with regular exercise. The results from this study highlight the potential role of HDL apolipoproteins as therapeutic targets for lifestyle interventions, particularly in high-risk individuals.

Pitfalls in Developing Machine Learning Models for Predicting Cardiovascular Diseases: Challenge and Solutions

In recent years, there has been explosive development in artificial intelligence (AI), which has been widely applied in the health care field. As a typical AI technology, machine learning models have emerged with great potential in predicting cardiovascular diseases by leveraging large amounts of medical data for training and optimization, which are expected to play a crucial role in reducing the incidence and mortality rates of cardiovascular diseases. Although the field has become a research hot spot, there are still many pitfalls that researchers need to pay close attention to. These pitfalls may affect the predictive performance, credibility, reliability, and reproducibility of the studied models, ultimately reducing the value of the research and affecting the prospects for clinical application. Therefore, identifying and avoiding these pitfalls is a crucial task before implementing the research. However, there is currently a lack of a comprehensive summary on this topic. This viewpoint aims to analyze the existing problems in terms of data quality, data set characteristics, model design, and statistical methods, as well as clinical implications, and provide possible solutions to these problems, such as gathering objective data, improving training, repeating measurements, increasing sample size, preventing overfitting using statistical methods, using specific AI algorithms to address targeted issues, standardizing outcomes and evaluation criteria, and enhancing fairness and replicability, with the goal of offering reference and assistance to researchers, algorithm developers, policy makers, and clinical practitioners.

MSGene: a multistate model using genetic risk and the electronic health record applied to lifetime risk of coronary artery disease

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. Current methods lack the ability to incorporate new information throughout the life course or to combine innate genetic risk factors with acquired lifetime risk. We designed a general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. This model is designed to handle longitudinal data over the lifetime to address this unmet need and support clinical decision-making. We analyze longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improves discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), in held-out data. We also use MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore our multistate model's potential public health value for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics toward earlier more effective prevention.

An evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of population genetic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia in US patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Familial hypercholesterolemia is an underdiagnosed genetic metabolic condition limiting the clearance of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and increasing lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease. Population genetic screening in unselected individuals could quickly identify cases of familial hypercholesterolemia and enable early prevention, but the economic impact of widespread screening on patients has not been studied.

METHODS

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of population genetic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia in 20 and 35-year-old adults in the United States from the perspective of patients. We developed a decision tree Markov hybrid model to examine diagnoses, cardiovascular disease, cardiac events, quality of life, and costs under population genetic screening compared to family-based cascade testing.

RESULTS

While population genetic screening increased diagnoses and reduced incidence of cardiovascular disease, population genetic screening was not cost-effective compared to cascade testing at current levels of willingness to pay. Lower genetic testing costs, combined screening with other genetic conditions, and support to maintain lipid-lowering therapy use over time could improve the cost-effectiveness of population genetic screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research is needed to examine how cost-sharing strategies may affect the cost-effectiveness of screening to patients and how families and providers experience the clinical and economic outcomes of population screening.

Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Predicted 30-Year Risk of Maternal Cardiovascular Disease 2-7 Years After Delivery

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether adverse pregnancy outcomes are associated with a higher predicted 30-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD; ie, coronary artery disease or stroke).

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of the prospective Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study-Monitoring Mothers-to-Be Heart Health Study longitudinal cohort. The exposures were adverse pregnancy outcomes during the first pregnancy (ie, gestational diabetes mellitus [GDM], hypertensive disorder of pregnancy, preterm birth, and small- and large-for-gestational-age [SGA, LGA] birth weight) modeled individually and secondarily as the cumulative number of adverse pregnancy outcomes (ie, none, one, two or more). The outcome was the 30-year risk of atherosclerotic CVD predicted with the Framingham Risk Score assessed at 2-7 years after delivery. Risk was measured both continuously in increments of 1% and categorically, with high predicted risk defined as a predicted risk of atherosclerotic CVD of 10% or more. Linear regression and modified Poisson models were adjusted for baseline covariates.

RESULTS

Among 4,273 individuals who were assessed at a median of 3.1 years after delivery (interquartile range 2.5-3.7), the median predicted 30-year atherosclerotic CVD risk was 2.2% (interquartile range 1.4-3.4), and 1.8% had high predicted risk. Individuals with GDM (least mean square 5.93 vs 4.19, adjusted β=1.45, 95% CI, 1.14-1.75), hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (4.95 vs 4.22, adjusted β=0.49, 95% CI, 0.31-0.68), and preterm birth (4.81 vs 4.27, adjusted β=0.47, 95% CI, 0.24-0.70) were more likely to have a higher absolute risk of atherosclerotic CVD. Similarly, individuals with GDM (8.7% vs 1.4%, adjusted risk ratio [RR] 2.02, 95% CI, 1.14-3.59), hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (4.4% vs 1.4%, adjusted RR 1.91, 95% CI, 1.17-3.13), and preterm birth (5.0% vs 1.5%, adjusted RR 2.26, 95% CI, 1.30-3.93) were more likely to have a high predicted risk of atherosclerotic CVD. A greater number of adverse pregnancy outcomes within the first birth was associated with progressively greater risks, including per 1% atherosclerotic CVD risk (one adverse pregnancy outcome: 4.86 vs 4.09, adjusted β=0.59, 95% CI, 0.43-0.75; two or more adverse pregnancy outcomes: 5.51 vs 4.09, adjusted β=1.16, 95% CI, 0.82-1.50), and a high predicted risk of atherosclerotic CVD (one adverse pregnancy outcome: 3.8% vs 1.0%, adjusted RR 2.33, 95% CI, 1.40-3.88; two or more adverse pregnancy outcomes: 8.7 vs 1.0%, RR 3.43, 95% CI, 1.74-6.74). Small and large for gestational age were not consistently associated with a higher atherosclerotic CVD risk.

CONCLUSION

Individuals who experienced adverse pregnancy outcomes in their first birth were more likely to have a higher predicted 30-year risk of CVD measured at 2-7 years after delivery. The magnitude of risk was higher with a greater number of adverse pregnancy outcomes experienced.

A Prospective Study of the Association Between Plasma Calprotectin Levels and New-Onset CKD in the General Population

Introduction

Systemic inflammation has been associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). In this study, we aimed to investigate a potential association between the plasma biomarker of inflammation calprotectin and new-onset CKD in a population-based cohort study.

Methods

Individuals without CKD at baseline (n = 4662) who participated in the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) prospective population-based cohort study in the Netherlands were included. Baseline plasma calprotectin levels were assessed in samples that had been stored at -80 °C. Occurrence of new-onset CKD was defined as a composite outcome of an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2, urinary albumin excretion (UAE) >30 mg/24h, or both.

Results

Baseline median (interquartile range) plasma calprotectin levels were 0.49 (0.35-0.68) mg/l and baseline median eGFR was 95.9 (interquartile range: 85.0-105.7) ml/min per 1.73 m2. After median follow-up of 8.3 (7.8-8.9) years, 467 participants developed new-onset CKD. Baseline plasma calprotectin levels were significantly associated with an increased risk of new-onset CKD (hazard ratio [HR] per doubling 1.28 [95% confidence interval, CI: 1.14-1.44], P < 0.001), independent of potentially confounding factors (HR 1.14 [95% CI: 1.01-1.29], P = 0.034), except for baseline high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) (HR 1.05 [0.91-1.21], P = 0.494). In secondary analyses, the association between plasma calprotectin and occurrence of UAE >30 mg/24h remained significant (HR 1.17 [1.02-1.34], P = 0.027), but not significantly so for the incidence of eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 as individual outcome (HR 1.15 [0.92-1.43], P = 0.218).

Conclusion

Higher plasma calprotectin levels are associated with an increased risk of developing CKD in the general population. This association is mitigated after adjustment for hs-CRP, and more pronounced with new-onset CKD defined by UAE.

Networks of gut bacteria relate to cardiovascular disease in a multi-ethnic population: the HELIUS study

AIMS

Gut microbiota have been linked to blood lipid levels and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The composition and abundance of gut microbiota trophic networks differ between ethnicities. We aim to evaluate the relationship between gut microbiotal trophic networks and CVD phenotypes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included cross-sectional data from 3860 individuals without CVD history from 6 ethnicities living in the Amsterdam region participating in the prospective Healthy Life in Urban Setting (HELIUS) study. Genetic variants were genotyped, faecal gut microbiota were profiled, and blood and anthropometric parameters were measured. A machine learning approach was used to assess the relationship between CVD risk (Framingham score) and gut microbiota stratified by ethnicity. Potential causal relationships between gut microbiota composition and CVD were inferred by performing two-sample Mendelian randomization with hard CVD events from the Pan-UK Biobank and microbiome genome-wide association studies summary data from a subset of the HELIUS cohort (n = 4117). Microbial taxa identified to be associated with CVD by machine learning and Mendelian randomization were often ethnic-specific, but some concordance across ethnicities was found. The microbes Akkermansia muciniphila and Ruminococcaceae UCG-002 were protective against ischaemic heart disease in African-Surinamese and Moroccans, respectively. We identified a strong inverse association between blood lipids, CVD risk, and the combined abundance of the correlated microbes Christensenellaceae-Methanobrevibacter-Ruminococcaceae (CMR). The CMR cluster was also identified in two independent cohorts and the association with triglycerides was replicated.

CONCLUSION

Certain gut microbes can have a potentially causal relationship with CVD events, with possible ethnic-specific effects. We identified a trophic network centred around Christensenellaceae, Methanobrevibacter, and various Ruminococcaceae, frequently lacking in South-Asian Surinamese, to be protective against CVD risk and associated with low triglyceride levels.

Apolipoprotein E-ε2 and Resistance to Atherosclerosis in Midlife: The PESA Observational Study

BACKGROUND

APOE is a known genetic contributor to cardiovascular disease, but the differential role APOE alleles play in subclinical atherosclerosis remains unclear.

METHODS

The PESA (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis) is an observational cohort study that recruited 4184 middle-aged asymptomatic individuals to be screened for cardiovascular risk and multiterritorial subclinical atherosclerosis. Participants were APOE-genotyped, and omics data were additionally evaluated.

RESULTS

In the PESA study, the frequencies for APOE -ε2, -ε3, and -ε4 alleles were 0.060, 0.844, and 0.096, respectively. This study included a subcohort of 3887 participants (45.8±4.3 years of age; 62% males). As expected, APOE-ε4 carriers were at the highest risk for cardiovascular disease and had significantly greater odds of having subclinical atherosclerosis compared with ε3/ε3 carriers, which was mainly explained by their higher levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol. In turn, APOE-ε2 carriers were at the lowest risk for cardiovascular disease and had significantly lower odds of having subclinical atherosclerosis in several vascular territories (carotids: 0.62 [95% CI, 0.47-0.81]; P=0.00043; femorals: 0.60 [0.47-0.78]; P=9.96×10-5; coronaries: 0.53 [0.39-0.74]; P=0.00013; and increased PESA score: 0.58 [0.48-0.71]; P=3.16×10-8). This APOE-ε2 atheroprotective effect was mostly independent of the associated lower LDL-cholesterol levels and other cardiovascular risk factors. The protection conferred by the ε2 allele was greater with age (50-54 years: 0.49 [95% CI, 0.32-0.73]; P=0.00045), and normal (<150 mg/dL) levels of triglycerides (0.54 [0.44-0.66]; P=4.70×10-9 versus 0.90 [0.57-1.43]; P=0.67 if ≥150 mg/dL). Omics analysis revealed an enrichment of several canonical pathways associated with anti-inflammatory mechanisms together with the modulation of erythrocyte homeostasis, coagulation, and complement activation in ε2 carriers that might play a relevant role in the ε2's atheroprotective effect.

CONCLUSIONS

This work sheds light on the role of APOE in cardiovascular disease development with important therapeutic and prevention implications on cardiovascular health, especially in early midlife.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01410318.

Repeat Coronary Angiography in Patients Aged over 50 Years with Previously Normal/Non-Obstructive Coronary Angiogram-Insights from a Retrospective Study

(1) Introduction: A significant proportion of patients undergoing coronary angiography (CAG) have normal (NCA) or non-obstructive coronary artery disease (NOCAD). This study retrospectively tested the incidence of re-catheterization, and long-term outcomes of this population in patients aged over 50 years. (2) Methods: We identified all patients above 50 years of age with NOCAD who underwent their first CAG at our center between January 2008 and December 2019. Patients were evaluated for their baseline characteristics, risk factors profile, and indication for CAG. Patients undergoing repeat CAG after the index procedure were assessed for the above, including the primary preventive pharmacotherapy prescribed. (3) Results: A total of 1939 patients were reported to have NOCAD. Of these, 1756 (90%) patients (62% males, median age 66 (56-75) years) had no repeat angiography (group 1). Repeat angiography was performed in 10%: 136 (7%) proved futile (median time for repeat angiography 5 (3-8) years) (group 3), and 47 (3%) ended with angioplasty (median time for repeat angiography 4 (3-6) years) (group 2). Male gender, BMI above 30 (23% vs. 13%), hypertension (68% vs. 57%), diabetes (28% vs. 17%) and smoking (36% vs. 19%) were significantly higher in the interventional group. Regression analysis showed both paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and hyperlipidemia were significantly associated with repeat CAG. The indication for the first CAG was mainly symptoms related. In the interventional repeat angiography (n = 47) the incidence of troponin positive cases increased from 8.2% before intervention to 57.5%, 50% being ST elevation cases. The symptoms-related cases went from 36.7% to 18.4%. Intriguingly, 85% of the interventional group were not prescribed statin and/or aspirin on a regular basis, and/or did not adhere to treatment. (4) Conclusions: NOCAD is a frequent occurrence. The threshold for repeat angiography must be higher, better reserved to troponin positive cases. Moreover, patients must be handled according to their risk profile, not being mistakenly reassured by a snapshot benign coronary angiography.

Do Police Encounters Increase the Risk for Cardiovascular Disease? Police Encounters and Framingham 30-Year Cardiovascular Risk Score

INTRODUCTION

Despite increased attention to the societal consequences of aggressive policing, the focus on rarer instances of deaths/severe injuries fails to fully capture the day-to-day experiences that racially minoritized groups face during police encounters (PEs). We explored differential vulnerability by race/ethnicity in the relationship between PEs and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

METHODS

Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we regressed the Framingham 30-Year CVD risk score on a high number of lifetime PEs (6 + among men and 2 + among women). To explore differential vulnerability by race, we added an interaction between PEs and race/ethnicity. We also examined sex- and race and sex-stratified models.

RESULTS

We observed no association between PEs and CVD risk in the sample overall, but the interaction between PEs and race/ethnicity was statistically significant. In race stratified models, we found that higher PEs were associated with a lower CVD risk among Black respondents, whereas among White respondents there was no relationship. In the sex-stratified analysis, reporting higher PEs was associated with lower CVD risk among men, while among women there was no relationship. In sex- and race-stratified models, higher PEs was associated with lower CVD risk among Black men and higher CVD risk among White women, while there was no association among Black women and White men.

CONCLUSION

The association between PEs and CVD risk depends on race/ethnicity and sex. More work is needed to understand the counterintuitive finding that high PEs are associated with lower CVD risk among Black men.

Clinical characteristics and statin eligibility of patients under 50 with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

AIMS

This study seeks to understand the clinical characteristics, risk factors, and statin eligibility of younger adults who present with STEMI.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort of STEMI patients <50 years. Baseline characteristics, medical history, prior medications, drug use, lipid profiles, cardiovascular risk factors were examined. Ten-year ASCVD risk was calculated utilizing the Pooled Cohort Equations. Statin eligibility was determined according to the 2019 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) and the 2022 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines.

RESULTS

Six hundred and thirty-five individuals were included, the majority were men (82.4%) and white (89%), with a median age was 46.9 [42.0-48.0]. The most prevalent risk factors were current smoking (59%), hyperlipidemia (44%), and hypertension (37%). Drug use was rare (8.3%). Preventative medication use was low, aspirin was the most common (14%), followed by ACE inhibitors/ARBs (12%), statins (11%), and beta-blockers (9.1%). Mean HDL-C was low at 36.4 ± 12.0 mg/dL, while mean LDL was unremarkable at 112.4 ± 37.9 mg/dL. According to the 2019 ACC/AHA guidelines, 45.5% were classified as statin recommended, 8.7% were classified as statin considered, and 45.8% were classified as statin not recommended. According to the 2022 USPSTF guidelines, 29% were classified as statin recommended, 12.4% were classified as statin considered, and 58.6% were classified as statin not recommended.

CONCLUSIONS

Younger adults with STEMI exhibit high rates of tobacco use and low rates of preventative medications use. Approximately half of the cohort did not meet criteria for statin initiation.

Plasma Calprotectin Levels Associate With New-Onset Hypertension in the General Population: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Low-grade systemic inflammation is a relevant pathogenic mechanism underlying the development of hypertension. In this study, we hypothesized that plasma calprotectin levels, as a biomarker of neutrophil-mediated inflammation, is associated with developing new-onset hypertension in the general population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Plasma calprotectin levels were determined in 3524 participants who participated in the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease) study, a prospective population-based cohort study. Plasma calprotectin levels were studied for associations with the risk of new-onset hypertension, defined as systolic blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, or the first recorded use of antihypertensives. Participants with hypertension at baseline were excluded. Median plasma calprotectin levels were 0.48 (0.34-0.66) mg/L, and median systolic blood pressure was 117 (109-126) mm Hg. Plasma calprotectin levels were significantly associated with the risk of new-onset hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], per doubling 1.30 [95% CI, 1.21-1.41]; P<0.001), also after adjustment for age and sex (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.16-1.37]; P<0.001), but not after additional adjustment for potentially confounding factors, including baseline systolic blood pressure (HR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.90-1.11]; P=0.996). Stratified analyses showed significant effect modification by sex (Pinteraction=0.023) and urinary albumin excretion (Pinteraction=0.004), with higher HRs in men (compared with women) and in individuals with higher urinary albumin excretion (>9.3 mg per 24 hours) compared with lower urinary albumin excretion (≤9.3 mg per 24 hours).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher plasma calprotectin levels are associated with an increased risk of new-onset hypertension in the general population. This association is dependent on baseline systolic blood pressure and is particularly prominent in men compared with women.

Anatomical variations in the circle of Willis on magnetic resonance angiography in a south Trinidad population

Objectives

This article seeks to determine the prevalence of a complete circle of Willis (CoW) and its common morphological variations in a south Trinidad population, while also investigating the influence of gender, age, and ethnicity on CoW morphology.

Methods

A prospective, descriptive, cross-sectional study was done on the magnetic resonance images for consecutive patients who had a brain MRI/magnetic resonance angiography at a tertiary health institution in south Trinidad between October 2019 and September 2020. Patients with significant cerebrovascular disease and/or a history of prior neurosurgical intervention were excluded.

Results

A complete CoW was seen in 24.3%, with more complete circles observed in younger participants (≤45 years) and Afro-Trinidadians. No gender predilection for a complete CoW was demonstrated. The most common variations in the anterior and posterior parts of the circle were a hypoplastic anterior communicating artery (8.6%, n = 13) and bilateral aplastic posterior communicating arteries (18.4%, n = 28), respectively.

Conclusions

Significant variations exist in the CoW of a south Trinidad population with a frequency of complete in 24.3%, and more complete circles in younger patients and Afro-Trinidadians. Gender did not influence CoW morphology.

Advances in knowledge

Structural abnormalities in the CoW may be linked to future incidence of cerebrovascular diseases and should therefore be communicated to the referring physician in the written radiology report. Knowledge of variant anatomy and its frequency for a particular populations is also required by neurosurgeons and neuro-interventional radiologists to help with preprocedural planning and to minimize complications.

Assessment of Lifetime Risk for Cardiovascular Disease: Time to Move Forward

Over the past decades, there has been a notable increase in the risk of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD), even among younger individuals. Policymakers and the health community have revised CVD prevention programs to include younger people in order to take these new circumstances into account. A variety of CVD risk assessment tools have been developed in the past years with the aim of identifying potential CVD candidates at the population level; however, they can hardly discriminate against younger individuals at high risk of CVD.Therefore, in addition to the traditional 10-year CVD risk assessment, lifetime CVD risk assessment has recently been recommended by the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology and the European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines, particularly for young individuals. Methodologically, the benefits of these lifetime prediction models are the incorporation of left truncation observed in survival curves and the risk of competing events which are not considered equivalent in the common survival analysis. Thus, lifetime risk data are easily understandable and can be utilized as a risk communication tool for Public Health surveillance. However, given the peculiarities behind these estimates, structural harmonization should be conducted in order to create a sex-, race-specific tool that is sensitive to accurately identifying individuals who are at high risk of CVD. In this review manuscript, we present the most commonly used lifetime CVD risk tools, elucidate several methodological and critical points, their limitations, and the rationale behind their integration into everyday clinical practice.

Early insulin resistance in normoglycemic low-risk individuals is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Elevated glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is associated with a higher burden of subclinical atherosclerosis (SA). However, the association with SA of earlier insulin resistance markers is poorly understood. The study assessed the association between the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR) and SA in addition to the effect of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in individuals with normal HbA1c.

METHODS

A cohort of 3,741 middle-aged individuals from the Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis (PESA) study with basal HbA1c < 6.0% (< 42 mmol/mol) and no known CV disease underwent extensive imaging (multiterritorial vascular ultrasound and coronary artery calcium score, CACS) to assess the presence, burden, and extent of SA.

RESULTS

Individuals with higher HOMA-IR values had higher rates of CVRFs. HOMA-IR showed a direct association with the multiterritorial extent of SA and CACS (p < 0.001) and with global plaque volume measured by 3-dimensional vascular ultrasound (p < 0.001). After adjusting for key CVRFs and HbA1c, HOMA-IR values ≥ 3 were associated with both the multiterritorial extent of SA (odds ratio 1.41; 95%CI: 1.01 to 1.95, p = 0.041) and CACS > 0 (odds ratio 1.74; 95%CI: 1.20 to 2.54, p = 0.004), as compared with the HOMA-IR < 2 (the reference HOMA-IR category). In a stratified analysis, this association remained significant in individuals with a low-to-moderate SCORE2 risk estimate (75.6% of the cohort) but not in high-risk individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of HOMA-IR identified low-risk individuals with a higher burden of SA, after adjusting for the effects of key traditional CVRFs and HbA1c. HOMA-IR is a simple measure that could facilitate earlier implementation of primary CV prevention strategies in clinical practice.

30-Year High Cardiovascular Risk Incidence and its Determinants: CUME Study

OBJECTIVE

Estimate the incidence of the 30-year high cardiovascular risk and its determinants among graduates of federal universities in Minas Gerais.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort of 2,854 adults aged 20 to 59. The incidence of the outcome was calculated using the Framingham equation and its determinants were determined through multivariate Cox regression.

RESULTS

After an average of 2.62 years, the incidence of high cardiovascular risk was 8.09 and 20.1 cases per 1,000 person-years, for females and males respectively. Being male (HR: 2.34; 95% CI: 1.58 - 3.46), employment (HR: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.13 - 3.99), high consumption of processed foods (HR: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.21 - 4.90), and being physically active (HR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.41 - 0.98) were associated with high cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Among highly educated adults, being male, employment, and high consumption of processed foods are predictors of high cardiovascular risk, while being physically active acts as a protective factor.

MSGene: Derivation and validation of a multistate model for lifetime risk of coronary artery disease using genetic risk and the electronic health record

Currently, coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. We designed a novel and general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. MSGene supports decision making about CAD prevention related to any of these states. We analyzed longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improved discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), with external validation. We also used MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore the potential public health value of our novel multistate model for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics.

Comparison of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Cardiometabolic Profiles Between Current and Never Users of Marijuana

BACKGROUND

The relationship between marijuana use and cardiovascular health remains uncertain, with several observational studies suggesting a potential association with increased adverse atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) outcomes. This study examined the relationship between marijuana use, ASCVD risk factors, and cardiometabolic risk profiles.

METHODS

US adults (18-59 years) without cardiovascular disease were identified from the National Health And Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2018) based on self-reported marijuana use. Current users (used within the past month) and never users were compared with assess the burden and control of traditional ASCVD risk factors and biomarkers, using inverse probability of treatment weighting to adjust for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, including tobacco use.

RESULTS

Of the 13 965 participants identified (mean age, 37.5; 51.2% female; 13% non-Hispanic Black), 26.6% were current users. Current users were predominantly male, low-income, and more likely to be concurrent tobacco users. Inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis showed no significant differences in the burden and control of hypertension (19.3% versus 18.8%, P=0.76; 79.8% versus 77.8%, P=0.75), dyslipidemia (24.0% versus 19.9%, P=0.13; 82% versus 75%, P=0.95), diabetes (4.8% versus 6.4%, P=0.19; 52.9% versus 50.6%, P=0.84), obesity (35.8% versus 41.3%, P=0.13), and physical activity levels (71.9% versus 69.3%, P=0.37) between current and never users. Likewise, mean 10-year ASCVD risk scores (2.8% versus 3.0%, P=0.49), 30-year Framingham risk scores (22.7% versus 24.2%, P=0.25), and cardiometabolic profiles including high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (3.5 mg/L versus 3.7 mg/L, P=0.65), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (2.1 versus 2.1, P=0.89), low-density lipoprotein (114.3 mg/dL versus 112.2 mg/dL, P=0.53), total cholesterol (191.2 mg/dL versus 181.7 mg/dL, P=0.58), and hemoglobin A1C (5.4% versus 5.5%, P=0.25) were similar between current and never users.

CONCLUSIONS

This cross-sectional study found no association between self-reported marijuana use and increased burden of traditional ASCVD risk factors, estimated long-term ASCVD risk, or cardiometabolic profiles. Further studies are needed to explore potential pathways between adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes and marijuana use.

30-year Cardiovascular Disease Risk for Young Adults with Serious Mental Illness

Objective

To estimate 30-year CVD risk and modifiable risk factors in young adults with serious mental illness (SMI) versus those without, and assess variations in CVD risk by race, ethnicity, and sex.

Method

In this cross-sectional study, we estimated and compared the Framingham 30-year CVD risk score and individual modifiable CVD risk factors in young adult (20-39 years) primary care patients with and without SMI at two US healthcare systems (January 2016-Septemeber 2018). Interaction terms assessed whether the SMI-risk association differed across demographic groups.

Results

Covariate-adjusted 30-year CVD risk was significantly higher for those with (n=4228) versus those without (n=155,363) SMI (RR 1.28, 95% CI [1.26, 1.30]). Patients with SMI had higher rates of hypertension (OR 2.02 [1.7, 2.39]), diabetes (OR 3.14 [2.59, 3.82]), obesity (OR 1.93 [1.8, 2.07]), and smoking (OR 4.94 [4.6, 5.36]). The increased 30-year CVD risk associated with SMI varied significantly by race and sex: there was an 8% higher risk in Black compared to White patients (RR 1.08, [1.04, 1.12]) and a 9% lower risk in men compared to women (RR 0.91 [0.88, 0.94]).

Conclusions

Young adults with SMI are at increased 30-year risk of CVD, and further disparities exist for Black individuals and women.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pharmacist Prescribing for Managing Hypertension in the United States

Importance

Pharmacist-led interventions can significantly improve blood pressure (BP) control. The long-term cost-effectiveness of pharmacist-prescribing interventions implemented on a large scale in the US remains unclear.

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of implementing a pharmacist-prescribing intervention to improve BP control in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This economic evaluation included a 5-state Markov model based on the pharmacist-prescribing intervention used in The Alberta Clinical Trial in Optimizing Hypertension (or RxACTION) (2009 to 2013). In the trial, control group patients received an active intervention, including a BP wallet card, education, and usual care. Data were analyzed from January to June 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cardiovascular (CV) events, end-stage kidney disease events, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). CV risk was calculated using Framingham risk equations. Costs were based on the reimbursement rate for level 1 encounters, medication costs from published literature, and event costs from national surveys and pricing data sets. Quality of life was determined using a published catalog of EQ-5D utility values. One-way sensitivity analyses were used to assess alternative reimbursement values, a reduced time horizon of 5 years, alternative assumptions for BP reduction, and the assumption of no benefit to the intervention after 10 years. The model was expanded to the US population to estimate population-level cost and health impacts.

Results

Assumed demographics were mean (SD) age, 64 (12.5) years, 121 (49%) male, and a mean (SD) baseline BP of 150/84 (13.9/11.5) mm Hg. Over a 30-year time horizon, the pharmacist-prescribing intervention yielded 2100 fewer cases of CV disease and 8 fewer cases of kidney disease per 10 000 patients. The intervention was also associated with 0.34 (2.5th-97.5th percentiles, 0.23-0.45) additional life years and 0.62 (2.5th-97.5th percentiles, 0.53-0.73) additional QALYs. The cost savings were $10 162 (2.5th-97.5th percentiles, $6636-$13 581) per person due to fewer CV events with the pharmacist-prescribing intervention, even after the cost of the visits and medication adjustments. The intervention continued to produce benefits in more conservative analyses despite increased costs as the ICER ranged from $2093 to $24 076. At the population level, a 50% intervention uptake was associated with a $1.137 trillion in cost savings and would save an estimated 30.2 million life years over 30 years.

Conclusion and Relevance

These findings suggest that a pharmacist-prescribing intervention to improve BP control may provide high economic value. The necessary tools and resources are readily available to implement pharmacist-prescribing interventions across the US; however, reimbursement limitations remain a barrier.

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.

METHODS

We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).