Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for severe community-acquired pneumonia

Comparison of performances between risk scores for predicting mortality at 30 days in patients with community acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Risk scores facilitate the assessment of mortality risk in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Despite their utilities, there is a scarcity of evidence comparing the various RS simultaneously. This study aims to evaluate and compare multiple risk scores reported in the literature for predicting 30-day mortality in adult patients with CAP.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study on patients diagnosed with CAP was conducted across two hospitals in Colombia. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC-curves) were calculated for the outcome of survival or death at 30 days using the scores obtained for each of the analyzed questionnaires.

RESULTS

A total of 7454 potentially eligible patients were included, with 4350 in the final analysis, of whom 15.2% (662/4350) died within 30 days. The average age was 65.4 years (SD: 21.31), and 59.5% (2563/4350) were male. Chronic kidney disease was 3.7% (9.2% vs. 5.5%; p < 0.001) (OR: 1.85) higher in subjects who died compared to those who survived. Among the patients who died, 33.2% (220/662) presented septic shock compared to 7.3% (271/3688) of the patients who survived (p < 0.001). The best performances at 30 days were shown by the following scores: PSI, SMART-COP and CURB 65 scores with the areas under ROC-curves of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.8-0.85), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.83), and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71-0.76), respectively. The RS with the lowest performance was SIRS with the area under ROC-curve of 0.53 (95% CI: 0.51-0.56).

CONCLUSION

The PSI, SMART-COP and CURB 65, demonstrated the best diagnostic performances for predicting 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with CAP. The burden of comorbidities and complications associated with CAP was higher in patients who died.

Prognostic clinical decision support for pneumonia in the emergency department: A randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Hospitalization rates for childhood pneumonia vary widely. Risk-based clinical decision support (CDS) interventions may reduce unwarranted variation.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic randomized trial in two US pediatric emergency departments (EDs) comparing electronic health record (EHR)-integrated prognostic CDS versus usual care for promoting appropriate ED disposition in children (<18 years) with pneumonia. Encounters were randomized 1:1 to usual care versus custom CDS featuring a validated pneumonia severity score predicting risk for severe in-hospital outcomes. Clinicians retained full decision-making authority. The primary outcome was inappropriate ED disposition, defined as early transition to lower- or higher-level care. Safety and implementation outcomes were also evaluated.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 536 encounters (269 usual care and 267 CDS). Baseline characteristics were similar across arms. Inappropriate disposition occurred in 3% of usual care encounters and 2% of CDS encounters (adjusted odds ratio: 0.99, 95% confidence interval: [0.32, 2.95]). Length of stay was also similar and adverse safety outcomes were uncommon in both arms. The tool's custom user interface and content were viewed as strengths by surveyed clinicians (>70% satisfied). Implementation barriers include intrinsic (e.g., reaching the right person at the right time) and extrinsic factors (i.e., global pandemic).

CONCLUSIONS

EHR-based prognostic CDS did not improve ED disposition decisions for children with pneumonia. Although the intervention's content was favorably received, low subject accrual and workflow integration problems likely limited effectiveness. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT06033079.

Staphylococcus aureus Pneumonia in Can Tho, Vietnam: Clinical Characteristics, Antimicrobial Resistance Profile and Risk Factors of Mortality

INTRODUCTION

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) is an important pathogen in both community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia. S. aureus pneumonia has a high mortality rate and serious complications. Resistance to multiple antibiotics is a major challenge in the treatment of S. aureus pneumonia. Understanding the antibiotic resistance profile of S. aureus and the risk factors for mortality can help optimize antibiotic regimens and improve patient outcomes in S. aureus pneumonia.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study of 118 patients diagnosed with S. aureus pneumonia between May 2021 and June 2023 was conducted, with a 30-day follow-up period. Demographic information, comorbidities, Charlson Comorbidity Index, clinical characteristics, outcomes, and complications were collected for each enrolled case. The data were processed and analyzed using R version 3.6.2.

RESULTS

S. aureus pneumonia has a 30-day mortality rate of approximately 50%, with complication rates of 22% for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), 26.3% for septic shock, and 14.4% for acute kidney injury (AKI). Among patients with methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) pneumonia treated with vancomycin (n = 40), those with a vancomycin minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) ≤ 1 had significantly higher cumulative survival at day 30 compared to those with MIC ≥ 2 (log-rank test p = 0.04). The prevalence of MRSA among S. aureus isolates was 84.7%. Hemoptysis, methicillin resistance, acidosis (pH < 7.35), and meeting the Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society (IDSA/ATS) criteria for severe pneumonia were significantly associated with mortality in a multivariate Cox regression model based on the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO).

CONCLUSIONS

S. aureus pneumonia is a severe clinical condition with high mortality and complication rates. MRSA has a high prevalence in Can Tho City, Vietnam. Hemoptysis, methicillin resistance, acidosis (pH < 7.35), and meeting the IDSA/ATS criteria for severe pneumonia are risk factors for mortality in S. aureus pneumonia.

Enhancing pneumonia prognosis in the emergency department: a novel machine learning approach using complete blood count and differential leukocyte count combined with CURB-65 score

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia poses a major global health challenge, necessitating accurate severity assessment tools. However, conventional scoring systems such as CURB-65 have inherent limitations. Machine learning (ML) offers a promising approach for prediction. We previously introduced the Blood Culture Prediction Index (BCPI) model, leveraging solely on complete blood count (CBC) and differential leukocyte count (DC), demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting bacteremia. Nevertheless, its potential in assessing pneumonia remains unexplored. Therefore, this study aims to compare the effectiveness of BCPI and CURB-65 in assessing pneumonia severity in an emergency department (ED) setting and develop an integrated ML model to enhance efficiency.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted at a 3400-bed tertiary medical center in Taiwan. Data from 9,352 patients with pneumonia in the ED between 2019 and 2021 were analyzed in this study. We utilized the BCPI model, which was trained on CBC/DC data, and computed CURB-65 scores for each patient to compare their prognosis prediction capabilities. Subsequently, we developed a novel Cox regression model to predict in-hospital mortality, integrating the BCPI model and CURB-65 scores, aiming to assess whether this integration enhances predictive performance.

RESULTS

The predictive performance of the BCPI model and CURB-65 score for the 30-day mortality rate in ED patients and the in-hospital mortality rate among admitted patients was comparable across all risk categories. However, the Cox regression model demonstrated an improved area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.713 than that of CURB-65 (0.668) for in-hospital mortality (p<0.001). In the lowest risk group (CURB-65=0), the Cox regression model outperformed CURB-65, with a significantly lower mortality rate (2.9% vs. 7.7%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The BCPI model, constructed using CBC/DC data and ML techniques, performs comparably to the widely utilized CURB-65 in predicting outcomes for patients with pneumonia in the ED. Furthermore, by integrating the CURB-65 score and BCPI model into a Cox regression model, we demonstrated improved prediction capabilities, particularly for low-risk patients. Given its simple parameters and easy training process, the Cox regression model may be a more effective prediction tool for classifying patients with pneumonia in the emergency room.

Long-Term Outcomes in Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is globally one of the major causes of hospitalization and mortality. Severe CAP (sCAP) presents great challenges and need a comprehensive understanding of its long-term outcomes. Cardiovascular events and neurological impairment, due to persistent inflammation and hypoxemia, contribute to long-term outcomes in CAP, including mortality. Very few data are available in the specific population of sCAP. Multiple studies have reported variable 1-year mortality rates for patients with CAP up to 40.7%, with a clear influence by age, comorbidities, and disease severity. In terms of treatment, the potential protective role of macrolides in reducing mortality emphasizes the importance of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy. This narrative review explores the growing interest in the literature focusing on the long-term implications of sCAP. Improved understanding of long-term outcomes in sCAP can facilitate targeted interventions and enhance posthospitalization care protocols.

The Role of Biomarkers in the Diagnosis and Management of Pneumonia

Biomarkers are used in the diagnosis, severity determination, and prognosis for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Selected biomarkers may indicate a bacterial infection and need for antibiotic therapy (C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells). Biomarkers can differentiate CAP patients who require hospital admission and severe CAP requiring intensive care unit admission. Biomarker-guided antibiotic therapy may limit antibiotic exposure without compromising outcome and thus improve antibiotic stewardship. The authors discuss the role of biomarkers in diagnosing, determining severity, defining the prognosis, and limiting antibiotic exposure in CAP and ventilator-associated pneumonia patients.

Machine learning-based prediction of in-ICU mortality in pneumonia patients

Conventional severity-of-illness scoring systems have shown suboptimal performance for predicting in-intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in patients with severe pneumonia. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models for mortality prediction in patients with severe pneumonia. This retrospective study evaluated patients admitted to the ICU for severe pneumonia between January 2016 and December 2021. The predictive performance was analyzed by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC) of ML models to that of conventional severity-of-illness scoring systems. Three ML models were evaluated: (1) logistic regression with L2 regularization, (2) gradient-boosted decision tree (LightGBM), and (3) multilayer perceptron (MLP). Among the 816 pneumonia patients included, 223 (27.3%) patients died. All ML models significantly outperformed the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (AU-ROC: 0.650 [0.584-0.716] vs 0.820 [0.771-0.869] for logistic regression vs 0.827 [0.777-0.876] for LightGBM 0.838 [0.791-0.884] for MLP; P < 0.001). In the analysis for NRI, the LightGBM and MLP models showed superior reclassification compared with the logistic regression model in predicting in-ICU mortality in all length of stay in the ICU subgroups; all age subgroups; all subgroups with any APACHE II score, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio < 200; all subgroups with or without history of respiratory disease; with or without history of CVA or dementia; treatment with mechanical ventilation, and use of inotropic agents. In conclusion, the ML models have excellent performance in predicting in-ICU mortality in patients with severe pneumonia. Moreover, this study highlights the potential advantages of selecting individual ML models for predicting in-ICU mortality in different subgroups.

Predicting Persistent Acute Respiratory Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: The Accuracy of Two Lung Injury Indices

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Early and accurate identification of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) at high risk of persistent acute respiratory failure (PARF) is crucial. We sought to determine the accuracy of simplified Lung Injury Prediction Score (sLIPS) and simplified Early Acute Lung Injury (sEALI) for predicting PARF in ward AP patients.

METHODS

Consecutive AP patients in a training cohort from West China Hospital of Sichuan University (n = 912) and a validation cohort from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (n = 1033) were analyzed. PARF was defined as oxygen in arterial blood/fraction of inspired oxygen < 300 mmHg that lasts for > 48 h. The sLIPS was composed by shock (predisposing condition), alcohol abuse, obesity, high respiratory rate, low oxygen saturation, high oxygen requirement, hypoalbuminemia, and acidosis (risk modifiers). The sEALI was calculated from oxygen 2 to 6 L/min, oxygen > 6 L/min, and high respiratory rate. Both indices were calculated on admission.

RESULTS

PARF developed in 16% (145/912) and 22% (228/1033) (22%) of the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In these patients, sLIPS and sEALI were significantly increased. sLIPS ≥ 2 predicted PARF in the training (AUROC 0.87, 95% CI 0.84-0.89) and validation (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83) cohorts. sLIPS was significantly more accurate than sEALI and current clinical scoring systems in both cohorts (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Using routinely available clinical data, the sLIPS can accurately predict PARF in ward AP patients and outperforms the sEALI and current existing clinical scoring systems.

Extended-Spectrum Antibiotics for Community-Acquired Pneumonia with a Low Risk of Drug-Resistant Pathogens

OBJECTIVES

The potential hazards of extended-spectrum antibiotic therapy for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) with low risk of drug-resistant pathogens (DRPs) remains unclear, although risk assessment for DRPs is essential to determine the initial antibiotics to be administered. The study objective is to assess the effect of unnecessary extended-spectrum therapy on mortality of such patients.

METHODS

A post-hoc analysis was conducted after a prospective multicenter observational study for CAP. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of extended-spectrum therapy on 30-day mortality. Three sensitivity analyses, including propensity score analysis to confirm the robustness of findings, were also performed.

RESULTS

Among 750 patients with CAP, 416 with CAP with a low risk of DRPs were analyzed; of these, 257 underwent standard therapy and 159 underwent extended-spectrum therapy. The 30-day mortality was 3.9% and 13.8% in the standard and extended-spectrum therapy groups, respectively. Primary analysis revealed that extended-spectrum therapy was associated with increased 30-day mortality compared with standard therapy (adjusted odds ratio, 2.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-6.66). The results of the sensitivity analyses were consistent with those of the primary analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Physicians should assess the risk of DRPs when determining the empirical antibiotic therapy and should refrain from administering unnecessary extended-spectrum antibiotics for patients with CAP with a low risk of DRPs.

Sex and gender differences in community-acquired pneumonia

Awareness of the influence of sex ands gender on the natural history of several diseases is increasing. Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common acute respiratory disease, and it is associated with both morbidity and mortality across all age groups. Although a role for sex- and gender-based differences in the development and associated complications of CAP has been postulated, there is currently high uncertainty on the actual contribution of these factors in the epidemiology and clinical course of CAP. More evidence has been produced on the topic during the last decades, and sex- and gender-based differences have also been extensively studied in COVID-19 patients since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This review aims to provide an extensive outlook of the role of sex and gender in the epidemiology, pathogenesis, treatment, and outcomes of patients with CAP, and on the future research scenarios, with also a specific focus on COVID-19.

Utility of Differential White Cell Count and Cell Population Data for Ruling Out COVID-19 Infection in Patients With Community-Acquired Pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

The main aim of this study was to assess the utility of differential white cell count and cell population data (CPD) for the detection of COVID-19 in patients admitted for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) of different etiologies.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, observational, prospective study of adults aged ≥18 years admitted to three teaching hospitals in Spain from November 2019 to November 2021 with a diagnosis of CAP. At baseline, a Sysmex XN-20 analyzer was used to obtain detailed information related to the activation status and functional activity of white cells.

RESULTS

The sample was split into derivation and validation cohorts of 1065 and 717 patients, respectively. In the derivation cohort, COVID-19 was confirmed in 791 patients and ruled out in 274 patients, with mean ages of 62.13 (14.37) and 65.42 (16.62) years, respectively (p<0.001). There were significant differences in all CPD parameters except MO-Y. The multivariate prediction model showed that lower NE-X, NE-WY, LY-Z, LY-WY, MO-WX, MO-WY, and MO-Z values and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were related to COVID-19 etiology with an AUC of 0.819 (0.790, 0.846). No significant differences were found comparing this model to another including biomarkers (p=0.18).

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormalities in white blood cell morphology based on a few cell population data values as well as NLR were able to accurately identify COVID-19 etiology. Moreover, systemic inflammation biomarkers currently used were unable to improve the predictive ability. We conclude that new peripheral blood biomarkers can help determine the etiology of CAP fast and inexpensively.

Point-of-care application of diaphragmatic ultrasonography in the emergency department for the prediction of development of respiratory failure in community-acquired pneumonia: A pilot study

Background

Early recognition of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at risk of poor outcomes is crucial. However, there is no effective assessment tool for predicting the development of respiratory failure in patients with CAP. Diaphragmatic ultrasonography (DUS) is a novel technique developed for evaluating diaphragmatic function via measurements of the diaphragm thickening fraction (DTF) and diaphragm excursion (DE). This study evaluated the accuracy of DUS in predicting the development of respiratory failure in patients with CAP, as well as the feasibility of its use in the emergency department (ED) setting.

Materials and methods

This was a single-center prospective cohort study. We invited all patients with ED aged ≥ 20 years who were diagnosed with CAP of pneumonia severity index (PSI) SIe diagnosed with CAP of pneumonia severe with respiratory failure or septic shock were excluded. Two emergency physicians performed DUS to obtain DTF and DE measurements. Data were collected to calculate PSI, CURB-65 score, and Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society severity criteria. Study endpoints were taken at the development of respiratory failure or 30 days post-ED presentation. Continuous variables were analyzed using T-tests, while categorical variables were analyzed using chi-square tests. Further logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed to examine the ability to predict the development of respiratory failure. Intra- and inter-rater reliability was examined with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs).

Results

In this study, 13 of 50 patients with CAP enrolled developed respiratory failure. DTF was found to be an independent predictor (OR: 0.939, p = 0.0416). At the optimal cut-off point of 23.95%, DTF had 69.23% of sensitivity, 83.78% of specificity, 88.57% of negative predictive value, and 80% of accuracy. Intra- and inter-rater analysis demonstrated good consistency (intra-rater ICC 0.817, 0.789; inter-rater ICC 0.774, 0.781).

Conclusion

DUS assessment of DTF may reliably predict the development of respiratory failure in patients with CAP presenting to the ED. Patients with DTF > 23.95% may be considered for outpatient management.

Comparison of the prognostic performance of the CURB-65 and a modified version of the pneumonia severity index designed to identify high-risk patients using the International Community-Acquired Pneumonia Collaboration Cohort

BACKGROUND

Although the PSI and CURB-65 represent well-validated prediction rules for pneumonia prognosis, PSI was designed to identify patients at low risk and CURB- 65 patients at high risk of mortality. We compared the prognostic performance of a modified version of the PSI designed to identify high-risk patients (i.e., PSI-HR) to CURB-65 in predicting short-term mortality.

METHODS

Using data from 6 pneumonia cohorts, we designed PSI-HR as a 6-class prediction rule using the original prognostic weights of all PSI variables and modifying the risk score thresholds to define risk classes. We calculated the proportion of low-risk and high-risk patients using CURB-65 and PSI-HR and 30-day mortality in these subgroups. We compared the rules' sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for mortality at all risk class thresholds and assessed discriminatory power using areas under their receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs).

RESULTS

Among 13,874 patients with pneumonia, 1,036 (7.5%) died. For PSI-HR versus CURB-65, aggregate mortality was lower in low-risk patients (1.6% vs. 2.2%, p = 0.005) and higher in high-risk patients (36.5% vs. 32.2%, p = 0.27). PSI-HR had higher sensitivities than CURB-65 at all thresholds; PSI-HR also had higher specificities at the 3 lowest thresholds and specificities within 0.5% points of CURB-65 at the 2 highest thresholds. The AUROC was larger for PSI-HR than CURB- 65 (0.82 vs. 0.77, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

PSI-HR demonstrated superior prognostic accuracy to CURB-65 at the lower end of the severity spectrum and identified high-risk patients with nonsignificant higher short-term mortality at the higher end.

Development and validation of a composite score to predict severe forms of ischemic colitis

OBJECTIVE

To develop a simple scoring system in order to predict the risk of severe (death and/or surgery) ischemic colitis METHODS: In this retrospective study, 205 patients diagnosed with ischemic colitis in a tertiary hospital were consecutively included over a 6-year period. The study sample was sequentially divided into a training cohort (n = 103) and a validation cohort (n = 102). In the training cohort, multivariable analysis was used to identify clinical, biological, and CT variables associated with poor outcome and to build a risk scoring system. The discriminative ability of the score (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value) was estimated in the two cohorts to externally validate the score, and a receiver operating characteristic curve was established to estimate the area under the curve of the score. Bootstrapping was used to validate the score internally.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, four independent variables were associated with unfavorable outcome: hemodynamic instability (2 pts), involvement of the small bowel (1 pt), paper-thin wall pattern (3 pts), no stratified enhancement pattern (1 pt). The score was used to categorize patients into low risk (score: 0, 1), high risk (score: 2-3), and very high risk (score: 4-7) groups with sensitivity and specificity of 97% and 67%, respectively, and a good discriminating capability, with a C-statistic of 0.94. Internal and external validation showed good discrimination capability (C-statistics of 0.9 and 0.84, respectively).

CONCLUSION

A simple risk score can stratify patients into three distinct prognosis groups, which can optimize patient management.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT04662268 KEY POINTS: • Simple scoring system predicting the risk of severe ischemic colitis • First study to include CT findings to the clinical and biological data used to determine a severity score.

Predictors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and risk score formulation for prioritizing tertiary care-An experience from South India

Background

We retrospectively data-mined the case records of Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized to a tertiary care centre to derive mortality predictors and formulate a risk score, for prioritizing admission.

Methods and findings

Data on clinical manifestations, comorbidities, vital signs, and basic lab investigations collected as part of routine medical management at admission to a COVID-19 tertiary care centre in Chengalpattu, South India between May and November 2020 were retrospectively analysed to ascertain predictors of mortality in the univariate analysis using their relative difference in distribution among ‘survivors’ and ‘non-survivors’. The regression coefficients of those factors remaining significant in the multivariable logistic regression were utilised for risk score formulation and validated in 1000 bootstrap datasets.

Among 746 COVID-19 patients hospitalised [487 “survivors” and 259 “non-survivors” (deaths)], there was a slight male predilection [62.5%, (466/746)], with a higher mortality rate observed among 40–70 years age group [59.1%, (441/746)] and highest among diabetic patients with elevated urea levels [65.4% (68/104)]. The adjusted odds ratios of factors [OR (95% CI)] significant in the multivariable logistic regression were SaO₂<95%; 2.96 (1.71–5.18), Urea ≥50 mg/dl: 4.51 (2.59–7.97), Neutrophil-lymphocytic ratio (NLR) >3; 3.01 (1.61–5.83), Age ≥50 years;2.52 (1.45–4.43), Pulse Rate ≥100/min: 2.02 (1.19–3.47) and coexisting Diabetes Mellitus; 1.73 (1.02–2.95) with hypertension and gender not retaining their significance. The individual risk scores for SaO₂<95–11, Urea ≥50 mg/dl-15, NLR >3–11, Age ≥50 years-9, Pulse Rate ≥100/min-7 and coexisting diabetes mellitus-6, acronymed collectively as ‘OUR-ARDs score’ showed that the sum of scores ≥ 25 predicted mortality with a sensitivity-90%, specificity-64% and AUC of 0.85.

Conclusions

The ‘OUR ARDs’ risk score, derived from easily assessable factors predicting mortality, offered a tangible solution for prioritizing admission to COVID-19 tertiary care centre, that enhanced patient care but without unduly straining the health system.

A prediction rule for severe adverse events in all inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia: a multicenter observational study

Background

Prediction of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk for severe adverse events (SAEs) requiring higher-intensity treatment is critical. However, evidence regarding prediction rules applicable to all patients with CAP including those with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) is limited. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new prediction system for SAEs in inpatients with CAP.

Methods

Logistic regression analysis was performed in 1334 inpatients of a prospective multicenter study to develop a multivariate model predicting SAEs (death, requirement of mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor support within 30 days after diagnosis). The developed ALL-COP-SCORE rule based on the multivariate model was validated in 643 inpatients in another prospective multicenter study.

Results

The ALL-COP SCORE rule included albumin (< 2 g/dL, 2 points; 2–3 g/dL, 1 point), white blood cell (< 4000 cells/μL, 3 points), chronic lung disease (1 point), confusion (2 points), PaO₂/F_IO₂ ratio (< 200 mmHg, 3 points; 200–300 mmHg, 1 point), potassium (≥ 5.0 mEq/L, 2 points), arterial pH (< 7.35, 2 points), systolic blood pressure (< 90 mmHg, 2 points), PaCO₂ (> 45 mmHg, 2 points), HCO₃⁻ (< 20 mmol/L, 1 point), respiratory rate (≥ 30 breaths/min, 1 point), pleural effusion (1 point), and extent of chest radiographical infiltration in unilateral lung (> 2/3, 2 points; 1/2–2/3, 1 point). Patients with 4–5, 6–7, and ≥ 8 points had 17%, 35%, and 52% increase in the probability of SAEs, respectively, whereas the probability of SAEs was 3% in patients with ≤ 3 points. The ALL-COP SCORE rule exhibited a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.85) compared with the other predictive models, and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points exhibited 92% sensitivity and 60% specificity.

Conclusions

ALL-COP SCORE rule can be useful to predict SAEs and aid in decision-making on treatment intensity for all inpatients with CAP including those with HCAP. Higher-intensity treatment should be considered in patients with CAP and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points.

Trial registration

This study was registered with the University Medical Information Network in Japan, registration numbers UMIN000003306 and UMIN000009837.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-022-01819-0.

Development and validation of a new scoring system for prognostic prediction of community-acquired pneumonia in older adults

The discriminative power of CURB-65 for mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is suspected to decrease with age. However, a useful prognostic prediction model for older patients with CAP has not been established. This study aimed to develop and validate a new scoring system for predicting mortality in older patients with CAP. We recruited two prospective cohorts including patients aged ≥ 65 years and hospitalized with CAP. In the derivation (n = 872) and validation cohorts (n = 1,158), the average age was 82.0 and 80.6 years and the 30-day mortality rate was 7.6% (n = 66) and 7.4% (n = 86), respectively. A new scoring system was developed based on factors associated with 30-day mortality, identified by multivariate analysis in the derivation cohort. This scoring system named CHUBA comprised five variables: confusion, hypoxemia (SpO₂ ≤ 90% or PaO₂ ≤ 60 mmHg), blood urea nitrogen ≥ 30 mg/dL, bedridden state, and serum albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL. With regard to 30-day mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for CURB-65 and CHUBA was 0.672 (95% confidence interval, 0.607–0.732) and 0.809 (95% confidence interval, 0.751–0.856; P < 0.001), respectively. The effectiveness of CHUBA was statistically confirmed in the external validation cohort. In conclusion, a simpler novel scoring system, CHUBA, was established for predicting mortality in older patients with CAP.

A literature review of severity scores for adults with influenza or community-acquired pneumonia - implications for influenza vaccines and therapeutics

Influenza vaccination and antiviral therapeutics may attenuate disease, decreasing severity of illness in vaccinated and treated persons. Standardized assessment tools, definitions of disease severity, and clinical endpoints would support characterizing the attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and antivirals. We review potential clinical parameters and endpoints that may be useful for ordinal scales evaluating attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and antivirals in hospital-based studies. In studies of influenza and community-acquired pneumonia, common physiologic parameters that predicted outcomes such as mortality, ICU admission, complications, and duration of stay included vital signs (hypotension, tachypnea, fever, hypoxia), laboratory results (blood urea nitrogen, platelets, serum sodium), and radiographic findings of infiltrates or effusions. Ordinal scales based on these parameters may be useful endpoints for evaluating attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and therapeutics. Factors such as clinical and policy relevance, reproducibility, and specificity of measurements should be considered when creating a standardized ordinal scale for assessment.

A catalogue of tools and variables from crisis and routine care to support decision-making about allocation of intensive care beds and ventilator treatment during pandemics: Scoping review

PURPOSE

This scoping review sought to identify objective factors to assist clinicians and policy-makers in making consistent, objective and ethically sound decisions about resource allocation when healthcare rationing is inevitable.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Review of guidelines and tools used in ICUs, hospital wards and emergency departments on how to best allocate intensive care beds and ventilators either during routine care or developed during previous epidemics, and association with patient outcomes during and after hospitalisation.

RESULTS

Eighty publications from 20 countries reporting accuracy or validity of prognostic tools/algorithms, or significant correlation between prognostic variables and clinical outcomes met our eligibility criteria: twelve pandemic guidelines/triage protocols/consensus statements, twenty-two pandemic algorithms, and 46 prognostic tools/variables from non-crisis situations. Prognostic indicators presented here can be combined to create locally-relevant triage algorithms for clinicians and policy makers deciding about allocation of ICU beds and ventilators during a pandemic. No consensus was found on the ethical issues to incorporate in the decision to admit or triage out of intensive care.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides a unique reference intended as a discussion starter for clinicians and policy makers to consider formalising an objective a locally-relevant triage consensus document that enhances confidence in decision-making during healthcare rationing of critical care and ventilator resources.

A combined risk modeling strategy for clinical prediction of beta-lactam allergies in children

Background: Drug provocation test (DPT) without skin tests is increasingly recommended in the evaluation of children with low-risk beta-lactam (BL) allergies. However, risk definitions are unclear. Objective: The aim of this study was to compose a clinical predictive model that could identify the children at low risk who could safely undergo direct DPT. Methods: The clinical data of 204 children who underwent a full diagnostic algorithm for suspected BL allergy were analyzed. Clinical data were used to construct mathematical predictive model for confirmed BL allergies. A prospective new sample was used for external validation of the final model. Results: The presentations during the index reaction were anaphylaxis in 5.9% and cutaneous reactions in the majority. BL allergy was confirmed in 15.7% of suspected cases. A backward multiple logistic regression model showed that a family history of drug allergy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.52), anaphylaxis (aOR, 5.14), any atopic disease other than asthma (aOR, 4.38), and a reaction interval of 0-6 hours during the index reaction (aOR, 5.32) were significantly associated with a confirmed BL allergy. A mathematical combined model based on these factors showed a sensitivity of 77.8% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 94.3%. The validation study replicated sensitivity and NPV values of the main cohort. Conclusion: The risk definition in BL allergies should depend on population-specific predictive models, including a combination of significant risk factors rather than empiric risk approaches. This may help to accurately determinate children at low risk who may safely proceed to direct DPT.

Burden of primary influenza and respiratory syncytial virus pneumonia in hospitalized adults: insights from a two-year multi-centre cohort study (2017-2018)

This two-year (2017-2018) multi-centre study on 356 adults hospitalized for influenza A/B and RSV pneumonia analysed factors associated with non-invasive ventilation (NIV) failure and in-hospital death (IHD.) Patients with both obstructive sleep apnoea or obesity hypoventilation syndrome and influenza-A virus pneumonia showed a higher risk for NIV failure (OR 4.66; 95% CI 1.42-15.30). Patients submitted to NIV showed a higher risk for IHD, regardless of comorbidities (influenza-A OR 3.00; 95% CI 1.35-6.65, influenza-B OR 4.52; 95% CI 1.13-18.01, RSV OR 5.61; 95% CI 1.26-24.93). The increased knowledge of influenza-A/B and RSV pneumonia burden may contribute to a better management of patients with viral pneumonia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Clinical and laboratory findings in elderly with Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Babol, northern Iran – 2017-2019

Morbidity and mortality are higher in older adults with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) than in other age groups. Also, CAP in older adults has various clinical manifestations with other. A higher mortality rate in the elderly with CAP may contribute to a delay in management. Consequently, the purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical and laboratory manifestations of CAP in the elderly. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 221 elderly patients with CAP who were admitted to Ayatollah Rouhani Hospital, in Babol, northern of Iran, in 2017-2019. Patient outcomes included 170 cases that recovered from CAP, and 51 cases that died of complications. Patients were evaluated in terms of their clinical and laboratory manifestations. The most common symptoms of pneumonia were cough (79.6%), sputum (73.8%), weakness (72.9%), fever (56%), dyspnea (46.2%). The most frequent underlying disease was ischemic heart disease (43.9%). In our study, clinical and laboratory characteristics in older patients with CAP were evaluated and compared with other studies confirming past findings, but there were differences in some cases, such as vital signs, gastrointestinal symptoms, and disturbance of the level of consciousness. Therefore, it recommends carefully taking the patients’ initial histories and accurately recording their clinical and laboratory symptoms.

Community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia is not usually considered a high-priority problem by the public, although it is responsible for substantial mortality, with a third of patients dying within 1 year after being discharged from hospital for pneumoniae. Although up to 18% of patients with community-acquired pneumonia who were hospitalised (admitted to hospital and treated there) have at least one risk factor for immunosuppression worldwide, strong evidence on community-acquired pneumonia management in this population is scarce. Several features of clinical management for community-acquired pneumonia should be addressed to reduce mortality, morbidity, and complications related to community-acquired pneumonia in patients who are immunocompetent and patients who are immunocompromised. These features include rapid diagnosis, microbiological investigation, prevention and management of complications (eg, respiratory failure, sepsis, and multiorgan failure), empirical antibiotic therapy in accordance with patient's risk factors and local microbiological epidemiology, individualised antibiotic therapy according to microbiological data, appropriate outcomes for therapeutic switch from parenteral to oral antibiotics, discharge planning, and long-term follow-up. This Seminar offers an updated view on community-acquired pneumonia in adults, with suggestions for clinical and translational research.

Chest radiograph-based artificial intelligence predictive model for mortality in community-acquired pneumonia

Background

Chest radiograph (CXR) is a basic diagnostic test in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) with prognostic value. We developed a CXR-based artificial intelligence (AI) model (CAP AI predictive Engine: CAPE) and prospectively evaluated its discrimination for 30-day mortality.

Methods

Deep-learning model using convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained with a retrospective cohort of 2235 CXRs from 1966 unique adult patients admitted for CAP from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019. A single-centre prospective cohort between 11 May 2020 and 15 June 2020 was analysed for model performance. CAPE mortality risk score based on CNN analysis of the first CXR performed for CAP was used to determine the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 30-day mortality.

Results

315 inpatient episodes for CAP occurred, with 30-day mortality of 19.4% (n=61/315). Non-survivors were older than survivors (mean (SD)age, 80.4 (10.3) vs 69.2 (18.7)); more likely to have dementia (n=27/61 vs n=58/254) and malignancies (n=16/61 vs n=18/254); demonstrate higher serum C reactive protein (mean (SD), 109 mg/L (98.6) vs 59.3 mg/L (69.7)) and serum procalcitonin (mean (SD), 11.3 (27.8) μg/L vs 1.4 (5.9) μg/L). The AUC for CAPE mortality risk score for 30-day mortality was 0.79 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.85, p<0.001); Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) 0.80 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.86, p<0.001); Confusion of new onset, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, 65 (CURB-65) score 0.76 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81, p<0.001), respectively. CAPE combined with CURB-65 model has an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.88, p<0.001). The best performing model was CAPE incorporated with PSI, with an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.89, p<0.001).

Conclusion

CXR-based CAPE mortality risk score was comparable to traditional pneumonia severity scores and improved its discrimination when combined.

[Management of Adult Community-Acquired Pneumonia and Prevention - Update 2021 - Guideline of the German Respiratory Society (DGP), the Paul-Ehrlich-Society for Chemotherapy (PEG), the German Society for Infectious Diseases (DGI), the German Society of Medical Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DGIIN), the German Viological Society (DGV), the Competence Network CAPNETZ, the German College of General Practitioneers and Family Physicians (DEGAM), the German Society for Geriatric Medicine (DGG), the German Palliative Society (DGP), the Austrian Society of Pneumology Society (ÖGP), the Austrian Society for Infectious and Tropical Diseases (ÖGIT), the Swiss Respiratory Society (SGP) and the Swiss Society for Infectious Diseases Society (SSI)]

The present guideline provides a new and updated concept of the management of adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia. It replaces the previous guideline dating from 2016.The guideline was worked out and agreed on following the standards of methodology of a S3-guideline. This includes a systematic literature search and grading, a structured discussion of recommendations supported by the literature as well as the declaration and assessment of potential conflicts of interests.The guideline has a focus on specific clinical circumstances, an update on severity assessment, and includes recommendations for an individualized selection of antimicrobial treatment.The recommendations aim at the same time at a structured assessment of risk for adverse outcome as well as an early determination of treatment goals in order to reduce mortality in patients with curative treatment goal and to provide palliation for patients with treatment restrictions.

Evaluation of severity scoring systems in patients with severe community acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of severity scoring systems to predict 30-day mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia.

METHODS

The study included 98 patients aged ≥18 years with community acquired pneumonia hospitalized at the Intensive Care Unit of the University Clinic for Infectious Diseases in Skopje, Republic of North Macedonia, during a 3-year period. We recorded demographic, clinical and common biochemical parameters. Five severity scores were calculated at admission: CURB 65 (Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood pressure, Age ≥65 years), SCAP (Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia score), SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score), SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score) and MPM (Mortality Prediction Model). Primary outcome variable was 30-day in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 59.08 ± 15.76 years, predominantly males (68%). The overall 30-day mortality was 52%. Charlson Comorbidity index was increased in non-survivors (3.72 ± 2.33) and was associated with the outcome. All severity indexes had higher values in patients who died, that showed statistical significance between the analysed groups. The areas under curve (AUC) values of the five scores for 30-day mortality were 0.670, 0.732, 0,726, 0.785 and 0.777, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Widely used severity scores accurately detected patients with pneumonia that had increased risk for poor outcome, but none of them individually demonstrated any advantage over the others.

Predictive Value of the Pneumonia Severity Score on Mortality due to Aspiration Pneumonia

Objective: Designing an efficient management strategy for aspiration is of high priority in our aging society because of its high incidence. We evaluated the prognostic value of both the A-DROP (age, dehydration, respiratory, disorientation, and pressure) and the modified A-DROP scoring systems (adding respiratory rate and comorbidity to A-DROP) in patients with aspiration pneumonia.Design: This is a retrospective study using electronic medical records at Saitama Medical University (SMU) hospital.Setting: A 965-bed university tertiary medical center in Japan.Participants: Data were extracted from the electronic medical records of patients from SMU hospital.Methods: In-hospital mortality was compared between two groups: (1) those with a 'severe' to 'advanced severe' A-DROP score; and (2) those with a 'low' to 'middle' A-DROP score. Area under the curve (AUC) for mortality for both the A-DROP and modified A-DROP scoring systems were compared.Results: The in-hospital mortality rates for patients with a high and a low A-DROP score were 28.6% and 9.0%, respectively. The mortality rates in the high modified A-DROP score group and in the low modified A-DROP score group were 28.2% and 9.9%, respectively. These differences in the mortality rates between the two groups were statistically significant for both the A-DROP and the modified A-DROP scoring systems. The AUC of the receiver operating characteristics curve for the A-DROP (0.700; 95% confidence interval, 0.608-0.779) was statistically significant.Conclusion: The A-DROP and modified A-DROP scoring systems are associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with aspiration pneumonia. The A-DROP scoring system is easy to use and may be a clinically valuable tool in the management of aspiration pneumonia.

Comparing scoring systems for prediction of mortality in patients with bloodstream infection

BACKGROUND

Blood stream infections (BSIs) are associated with significant short-term mortality. There are many different scoring systems for assessing the severity of BSI.

AIM

We studied confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age 65(CURB65), Confusion Respiratory Rate, Blood pressure, age 65(CRB65), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and assessed how effective they were at predicting 30-day mortality across three separate BSI cohorts.

DESIGN

A retrospective analysis was performed on three established BSI cohorts: (i) All cause BSI, (ii) Escherichia coli and (iii) Streptococcus pneumoniae.

METHODS

The performance characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under receiver operating curve [AUROC]) for the prediction of 30-day mortality were calculated for the 5 scores using clinically relevant cut-offs.

RESULTS

528 patients were included: All cause BSI-148, E. coli-191 and S. pneumoniae-189. Overall, 30-day mortality was 22%. In predicting mortality, the AUROC for CURB65 and CRB65 were superior compared with qSOFA, SIRS and NEWS in the all cause BSI (0.72, 0.70, 0.66, 0.51 and 0.53) and E. coli cohorts (0.81, 0.76, 0.73, 0.55 and 0.71). In the pneumococcal cohort, CURB65, CRB65, qSOFA and NEWS were broadly equal (0.63, 0.65, 0.66 and 0.62), but all were superior to SIRS (0.57). CURB65, CRB65 and qSOFA had considerably higher accuracy than SIRS or NEWS across all cohorts.

CONCLUSION

CURB65 was superior to other scores in predicting 30-day mortality in the E. coli and all cause BSI cohorts. Further research is required to assess the potential of broadening the application of CURB65 beyond pneumonia.

Community-acquired pneumonia severity assessment tools in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: a validation and clinical applicability study

Objective

To externally validate community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) tools on patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia from two distinct countries, and compare their performance with recently developed COVID-19 mortality risk stratification tools.

Methods

We evaluated 11 risk stratification scores in a binational retrospective cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia in São Paulo and Barcelona: Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), CURB, CURB-65, qSOFA, Infectious Disease Society of America and American Thoracic Society Minor Criteria, REA-ICU, SCAP, SMART-COP, CALL, COVID GRAM and 4C. The primary and secondary outcomes were 30-day in-hospital mortality and 7-day intensive care unit (ICU) admission, respectively. We compared their predictive performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, calibration plots and decision curve analysis.

Results

Of 1363 patients, the mean (SD) age was 61 (16) years. The 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 24.6% (228/925) in São Paulo and 21.0% (92/438) in Barcelona. For in-hospital mortality, we found higher AUCs for PSI (0.79, 95% CI 0.77–0.82), 4C (0.78, 95% CI 0.75–0.81), COVID GRAM (0.77, 95% CI 0.75–0.80) and CURB-65 (0.74, 95% CI 0.72–0.77). Results were similar for both countries. For the 1%–20% threshold range in decision curve analysis, PSI would avoid a higher number of unnecessary interventions, followed by the 4C score. All scores had poor performance (AUC <0.65) for 7-day ICU admission.

Conclusions

Recent clinical COVID-19 assessment scores had comparable performance to standard pneumonia prognostic tools. Because it is expected that new scores outperform older ones during development, external validation studies are needed before recommending their use.

Community-acquired pneumonia: similarities and differences between European and American guidelines - A narrative review

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is severe disease. Early prescription of an adequate treatment has a positive impact in the CAP outcome. Despite the evidence of existing relevant differences between CAP across geographical areas, general guidelines can be designed to be applied everywhere. Eight years have passed between the publication of the European (EG) and American (AG) CAP guidelines, thus the aim of this narrative review is to compare both guidelines and summarize their recommendations. The main similarity between both guidelines is the antibiotics recommendation with the exception that AG mention new antimicrobials that were not available at the time of EG publication. Both guidelines recommend against routinely adding steroids as an adjuvant treatment. Finally, both guidelines acknowledge that the decision to hospitalize a patient is clinical and should be complemented with an objective tool for risk assessment. EG recommend the CRB-65 while AG recommend the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI). EG and AG share a similar core of recommendations and only differ in minor issues such as new antibiotics. Likewise, both guidelines recommend against the routine prescription of steroids as an adjuvant therapy.

Clinical Policy: Critical Issues in the Management of Adult Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department With Community-Acquired Pneumonia

This clinical policy from the American College of Emergency Physicians is a revision of the 2009 "Clinical Policy: Critical Issues in the Management of Adult Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department With Community-Acquired Pneumonia." A writing subcommittee conducted a systematic review of the literature to derive evidence-based recommendations to answer the following clinical questions: (1) In the adult emergency department patient diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia, what clinical decision aids can inform the determination of patient disposition? (2) In the adult emergency department patient with community-acquired pneumonia, what biomarkers can be used to direct initial antimicrobial therapy? (3) In the adult emergency department patient diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia, does a single dose of parenteral antibiotics in the emergency department followed by oral treatment versus oral treatment alone improve outcomes? Evidence was graded and recommendations were made based on the strength of the available data.

New guidelines for severe community-acquired pneumonia

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We highlight the recent advances in the guidelines for treating patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (sCAP).

RECENT FINDINGS

sCAP is a significant cause of hospital admissions. We performed an extensive review of the literature, covering studies from the last several years, to summarise the most important points in the diagnosis and treatment of patients hospitalised with sCAP.

SUMMARY

sCAP is associated with a high clinical burden. Therefore, deep knowledge is necessary for its management. In general, diagnosis, treatment and management are based on many published guidelines. However, the mortality rate is still unacceptably high, indicating the need for clear recommendations in the management of patients with sCAP. The choice of empirical antibiotic therapy for sCAP depends on multiple factors, such as national and local antimicrobial susceptibility data and the characteristics of the patients, including their risk factors for acquiring infections caused by multidrug-resistant pathogens. Currently, there are several published international guidelines. The aim of this review is to explore the areas that require further knowledge and new recommendations for current clinical practice.

Validation of a Clinical Risk-scoring Algorithm for Scrub Typhus Severity in South India

Background

A clinical risk-scoring algorithm (CRSA) to forecast the scrub typhus severity was developed from two general hospitals in Thailand where patients were classified into three groups-nonsevere, severe, and fatal. In this study, an attempt was made to validate the risk-scoring algorithm for prognostication of scrub typhus severity in India.

Materials and methods

This prospective study was conducted at a hospital in South India between November 2017 and March 2019. Patients of scrub typhus were categorized into nonsevere, severe, and fatal according to the CRSA. The patients were also grouped into severe and nonsevere according to the definition of severe scrub typhus which was used as a gold standard. The obtained CRSA score was validated against the classification based on the definition of severe scrub typhus. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve for the scores was plotted and the Youden's index for optimal cutoff was used.

Results

A total of 198 confirmed cases of scrub typhus were included in the study. According to the ROC curve, at a severity score ≥7, an optimal combination of sensitivity of 75.9% and specificity of 77.5% was achieved. It correctly predicted 76.77% (152 of 198) of patients as severe, with an underestimation of 10.61% (21 patients) and an overestimation of 12.63% (25 patients).

Conclusion

In the present study setting, a cutoff of ≥7 for severity prediction provides an optimum combination of sensitivity and specificity. These findings need to be validated in further studies.

How to cite this article

Gulati S, Chunduru K, Madiyal M, Setia MS, Saravu K. Validation of a Clinical Risk-scoring Algorithm for Scrub Typhus Severity in South India. Indian J Crit Care Med 2021;25(5):551-556.

Disease burden and prognostic factors for clinical failure in elderly community acquired pneumonia patients

BACKGROUND

The study was to evaluate initial antimicrobial regimen and clinical outcomes and to explore risk factors for clinical failure (CF) in elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

METHODS

3011 hospitalized elderly patients were enrolled from 13 national teaching hospitals between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2014 initiated by the CAP-China network. Risk factors for CF were screened by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The incidence of CF in elderly CAP patients was 13.1%. CF patients were older, longer hospital stays and higher treatment costs than clinical success (CS) patients. The CF patients were more prone to present hyperglycemia, hyponatremia, hypoproteinemia, pleural effusion, respiratory failure and cardiovascular events. Inappropriate initial antimicrobial regimens in CF group were significantly higher than CS group. Undertreatment, CURB-65, PH < 7.3, PaO2/FiO2 < 200 mmHg, sodium < 130 mmol/L, healthcare-associated pneumonia, white blood cells > 10,000/mm3, pleural effusion and congestive heart failure were independent risk factors for CF in multivariable logistic regression analysis. Male and bronchiectasis were protective factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Discordant therapy was a cause of CF. Early accurate detection and management of prevention to potential causes is likely to improve clinical outcomes in elderly patients CAP.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

A Retrospective Study on Hospitalized Patients With Community-acquired Pneumonia in China (CAP-China) (RSCAP-China), NCT02489578. Registered 16 March 2015, https://register.clinicaltrials.gov/prs/app/action/SelectProtocol?sid=S0005E5S&selectaction=Edit&uid=U0000GWC&ts=2&cx=1bnotb.

Updates on community acquired pneumonia management in the ICU

While the world is grappling with the consequences of a global pandemic related to SARS-CoV-2 causing severe pneumonia, available evidence points to bacterial infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae as the most common cause of severe community acquired pneumonia (SCAP). Rapid diagnostics and molecular testing have improved the identification of co-existent pathogens. However, mortality in patients admitted to ICU remains staggeringly high.

The American Thoracic Society and Infectious Diseases Society of America have updated CAP guidelines to help streamline disease management. The common theme is use of timely, appropriate and adequate antibiotic coverage to decrease mortality and avoid drug resistance. Novel antibiotics have been studied for CAP and extend the choice of therapy, particularly for those who are intolerant of, or not responding to standard treatment, including those who harbor drug resistant pathogens. In this review, we focus on the risk factors, microbiology, site of care decisions and treatment of patients with SCAP.

Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia: general characteristics and early predictive factors for poor outcome

Purpose: Nowadays, most cases of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (PCAP) are diagnosed by positive urinary antigen. Our aims were to analyse process of care in patients hospitalised with non-bacteremic PCAP (NB-PCAP) and identify factors associated with poor outcome (PO) in this population.Methods: We conducted a prospective study, including patients hospitalised for NB-PCAP (positive urinary antigen and negative blood culture) over a 15 year period. We performed multivariate analysis of predisposing factors for PO, defined as need for mechanical ventilation and/or shock and/or in-hospital death.Results: Of the 638 patients included, 4.1% died in hospital and 12.8% had PO. Host-related factors were similar in patients with and without PO, but patients with PO had higher illness severity on admission. Adjusted analysis revealed the following independent factors associated with PO: being a nursing home resident (OR: 6.156; 95% CI: 1.827-20.750; p = .003), respiratory rate ≥30 breaths/min (OR: 3.030; 95% CI: 1.554-5.910; p = .001), systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg (OR: 4.789; 95% CI: 1.967-11.660; p = .001), diastolic blood pressure <60 mmHg (OR: 2.820; 95% CI: 1.329-5.986; p = .007), pulse rate ≥125 beats/min (OR: 3.476; 95% CI: 1.607-7.518; p = .002), pH <7.35 (OR: 9.323; 95% CI: 3.680-23.622; p < .001), leukocytes <4000/µL (OR: 10.007; 95% CI: 2.960-33.835; p < .001), and severe inflammation (OR: 2.364; 95% CI 1.234-4.526; p = .009). The area under the curve for predicting PO was 0.890 (95% CI: 0.851-0.929).Conclusions: Since patients with PO seem different and had worse in-hospital course, we identified eight independent risk factors for PO measurable on admission.

Efficacy of the quick sequential organ failure assessment for predicting clinical outcomes among community-acquired pneumonia patients presenting in the emergency department

Background

The study aimed to investigate the predictive value of the quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) for clinical outcomes in emergency patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

Methods

A total of 742 CAP cases from the emergency department (ED) were enrolled in this study. The scoring systems including the qSOFA, SOFA and CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age) were used to predict the prognostic outcomes of CAP in ICU-admission, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and 28-day mortality. According to the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the accuracies of prediction of the scoring systems were analyzed among CAP patients.

Results

The AUC values of the qSOFA, SOFA and CURB-65 scores for ICU-admission among CAP patients were 0.712 (95%CI: 0.678–0.745, P < 0.001), 0.744 (95%CI: 0.711–0.775, P < 0.001) and 0.705 (95%CI: 0.671–0.738, P < 0.001), respectively. For ARDS, the AUC values of the qSOFA, SOFA and CURB-65 scores were 0.730 (95%CI: 0.697–0.762, P < 0.001), 0.724 (95%CI: 0.690–0.756, P < 0.001) and 0.749 (95%CI: 0.716–0.780, P < 0.001), respectively. After 28 days of follow-up, the AUC values of the qSOFA, SOFA and CURB-65 scores for 28-day mortality were 0.602 (95%CI: 0.566–0.638, P < 0.001), 0.587 (95%CI: 0.551–0.623, P < 0.001) and 0.614 (95%CI: 0.577–0.649, P < 0.001) in turn. There were no statistical differences between qSOFA and SOFA scores for predicting ICU-admission (Z = 1.482, P = 0.138), ARDS (Z = 0.321, P = 0.748) and 28-day mortality (Z = 0.573, P = 0.567). Moreover, we found no differences to predict the ICU-admission (Z = 0.370, P = 0.712), ARDS (Z = 0.900, P = 0.368) and 28-day mortality (Z = 0.768, P = 0.442) using qSOFA or CURB-65 scores.

Conclusion

qSOFA was not inferior to SOFA or CURB-65 scores in predicting the ICU-admission, ARDS and 28-day mortality of patients presenting in the ED with CAP.

Initial diagnosis and management of adult community-acquired pneumonia: a 5-day prospective study in Shanghai

Background

Despite the release of a national guideline in 2016, the actual practices with respect to adult community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remain unknown in China. We aimed to investigate CAP patient management practices in Shanghai to identify potential problems and provide evidence for policy making.

Methods

A short-period, 5-day prospective cross-sectional study was performed with sampled pulmonologists from 36 hospitals, encompassing all the administrative districts of Shanghai, during January 8–12, 2018. The medical information was recorded and analyzed for the patients with the diagnosis of CAP who were cared for by 46 pulmonologists during the study period.

Results

Overall, 435 patients were included in the final analysis, and 94.3% had a low risk of death in terms of CRB-65 criteria (C: disturbance of consciousness, R: respiratory rate, B: blood pressure, 65: age). When diagnosed with CAP, 70.1% of patients were not evaluated using the CURB-65 score (CRB-65 + U: urea nitrogen), but most patients (95.4%) were evaluated using CRB-65. Time to achieve clinical stability was longer in patients with hypoxemia than in those without hypoxemia (8.42±6.36 vs. 5.53±4.12 days, P=0.004). Overall, 84.4% of patients with a CRB-65 score of 0 were administered antibiotics intravenously, and 19.4% were still hospitalized after excluding hypoxemia and comorbidities. The average duration of antibiotic treatment was 10.4±4.9 days. Overall, 72.6% of patients received antibiotics covering atypical pathogens whose time to clinical stability was significantly shortened compared with those without coverage, but the antibiotic duration was similar and not correspondingly shortened.

Conclusions

CRB-65 seems to be more practical than CURB-65 for the initial evaluation of CAP in the context of local practice, and oxygenation assessment should be included in the evaluation of severity. Overtreatment may be relatively common in patients at low risk of death, including unreasonable hospitalization, intravenous administration, and antibiotic duration.

Community-Acquired Pneumonia. Spanish Society of Pulmonology and Thoracic Surgery (SEPAR) Guidelines. 2020 Update

The guidelines for community-acquired pneumonia, last published in 2010, have been updated to provide recommendations based on a critical summary of the latest literature to help health professionals make the best decisions in the care of immunocompetent adult patients. The methodology was based on 6 PICO questions (on etiological studies, assessment of severity and decision to hospitalize, antibiotic treatment and duration, and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination), agreed by consensus among a working group of pulmonologists and an expert in documentation science and methodology. A comprehensive review of the literature was performed for each PICO question, and these were evaluated in in-person meetings. The American Thoracic Society guidelines were published during the preparation of this paper, so the recommendations of this association were also evaluated. We concluded that the etiological source of the infection should be investigated in hospitalized patients who have suspected resistance or who fail to respond to treatment. Prognostic scales, such as PSI, CURB 65, and CRB65, are useful for assessing severity and the decision to hospitalize. Different antibiotic regimens are indicated, depending on the treatment setting - outpatient, hospital, or intensive care unit - and the resistance of PES microorganisms should be calculated. The minimum duration of antibiotic treatment should be 5 days, based on criteria of clinical stability. Finally, we reviewed the indication of the 13-valent conjugate vaccine in immunocompetent patients with risk factors and comorbidity.

Markov State Modelling of Disease Courses and Mortality Risks of Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most frequent infectious diseases worldwide, with high lethality. Risk evaluation is well established at hospital admission, and re-evaluation is advised for patients at higher risk. However, severe disease courses may develop from all levels of severity. We propose a stochastic continuous-time Markov model describing daily development of time courses of CAP severity. Disease states were defined based on the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. Model calibration was based on longitudinal data from 2838 patients with a primary diagnosis of CAP from four clinical studies (PROGRESS, MAXSEP, SISPCT, VISEP). We categorized CAP severity into five disease states and estimated transition probabilities for CAP progression between these states and corresponding sojourn times. Good agreement between model predictions and clinical data was observed. Time courses of mortality were correctly predicted for up to 28 days, including validation with patient data not used for model calibration. We conclude that CAP disease course follows a Markov process, suggesting the necessity of daily monitoring and re-evaluation of patient's risk. Our model can be used for regular updates of risk assessments of patients and could improve the design of clinical trials by estimating transition rates for different risk groups.

New perspectives in aspiration community acquired Pneumonia

Introduction: Aspiration pneumonia is a subclass of community-acquired pneumonia that is expected to have an increasing contribution in mortality and morbidity, particularly in the elderly population over the next coming decades. While studies have revealed significant progress in identifying risk factors for aspiration pneumonia, the clinical presentation and diagnosis remain challenging to healthcare providers. Areas covered: We conducted a broad literature review using the MeSH heading in PubMed/MEDLINE of 'aspiration pneumonia' from January 1970 to July 2019. The understanding of the microbiology of aspiration pneumonia has evolved from a possible shift in the causative organisms away from anaerobes to traditional community-acquired pneumonia organisms. The importance of this shift is not yet known, but it has questioned the pathogenic role of anaerobes, appropriate anaerobic testing and the role of these pathogens in the pulmonary microbiome in patients with pneumonia. The identification of risk factors led to strategies to prevent or minimize the risk of aspiration pneumonia with moderate success. Expert opinion: Our expert opinion is that further research is needed to determine the role of the microbiome with aspiration pneumonia and patient risk factors. There is also a great need to develop clinical tools to help providers diagnose, treat, and prevent aspiration pneumonia.

Meta-analysis of vitamin D and lung function in patients with asthma

Background

There is growing literature suggesting a link between vitamin D and asthma lung function, but the results from systematic reviews are conflicting. We conducted this meta-analysis to investigate the relation between serum vitamin D and lung function in asthma patients.

Methods

Major databases, including OVID, MEDLINE, Web of Science and PUBMED, were searched until 10th October 2018. All published observational studies related to vitamin D and asthma were extracted. All meta-analyses were performed using Review Manager 5.3.5.

Results

This quantitative synthesis found that asthma patients with low vitamin D levels had lower forced expiratory volume In 1 s (FEV1) (mean difference (MD) = − 0.1, 95% CI = − 0.11 to − 0.08,p < 0.01;I2 = 49%, p = 0.12) and FEV1% (MD = − 10.02, 95% CI = − 11 to − 9.04, p < 0.01; I2 = 0%, p = 0.82) than those with sufficient vitamin D levels. A positive relation was found between vitamin D and FEV1 (r = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.2, p = 0.003; I2 = 59%,p = 0.01), FEV1% (r = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.26, p < 0.001; I2 = 42%, p = 0.11), forced vital capacity (FVC) (r = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.00 to 0.34, p = 0.05; I2 = 60%, p = 0.04), FEV1/FVC (r = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.3 to 0.51, p < 0.001; I2 = 48%, p = 0.07), and the asthma control test (ACT) (r = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.2 to 0.47, p < 0.001; I2 = 0%, p = 0.7). Subgroup analysis indicated that the positive correlation between vitamin D and lung function remained significant in both children and adults.

Conclusions

Our meta-analysis suggested that serum vitamin D levels may be positively correlated with lung function in asthma patients. Future comprehensive studies are required to confirm these relations and to elucidate potential mechanisms.

Optimal approaches to preventing severe community-acquired pneumonia

Introduction: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has the highest rate of mortality of all infectious diseases, especially among the elderly. Severe CAP (sCAP) is defined as a CAP in which intensive care management is required and is associated with an unfavorable clinical course. Areas covered: This review aims to identify prevention strategies for reducing the incidence of CAP and optimized management of sCAP. We highlight the main prevention approaches for CAP, focusing on the latest vaccination plans and on the influence of health-risk behaviors. Lastly, we report the latest recommendations about the optimal approach for sCAP when CAP has already been diagnosed, including prompt admission to ICU, early empirical antibiotic therapy, and optimization of antibiotic use. Expert opinion: Despite improvements in the diagnosis and treatment of sCAP, more efforts are needed to combat preventable causes, including the implementation and improvement of vaccine coverage, anti-tobacco campaigns and correct oral hygiene. Moreover, future research should aim to assess the benefits of early antimicrobial therapy in primary care. Pharmacokinetic studies in the target population may help clinicians to adjust dosage regimens in critically ill patients with CAP and thus reduce rates of treatment failure.

Invasive Respiratory or Vasopressor Support and/or Death as a Proposed Composite Outcome Measure for Perioperative Care Research

BACKGROUND

There is a need for a clinically relevant and feasible outcome measure to facilitate clinical studies in perioperative care medicine. This large-scale retrospective cohort study proposed a novel composite outcome measure comprising invasive respiratory or vasopressor support (IRVS) and death. We described the prevalence of IRVS in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery and assessed the validity of combining IRVS and death to form a composite outcome measure.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected perioperative data for 2776 patients undergoing major abdominal surgery (liver, colorectal, gastric, pancreatic, or esophageal resection) at Kyoto University Hospital. We defined IRVS as requirement for mechanical ventilation for ≥24 hours postoperatively, postoperative reintubation, or postoperative vasopressor administration. We evaluated the prevalence of IRVS within 30 postoperative days and examined the association between IRVS and subsequent clinical outcomes. The primary outcome of interest was long-term survival. Multivariable Cox proportional regression analysis was performed to adjust for the baseline patient and operative characteristics. The secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay and hospital mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 85 patients (3.1%) received IRVS within 30 postoperative days, 15 of whom died by day 30. Patients with IRVS had a lower long-term survival rate (1- and 3-year survival probabilities, 66.1% and 48.5% vs 95.2% and 84.0%, respectively; P < .001, log-rank test) compared to those without IRVS. IRVS was significantly associated with lower long-term survival after adjustment for the baseline patient and operative characteristics (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.97-3.77; P < .001). IRVS was associated with a longer hospital stay (median [interquartile range], 65 [39-326] vs 15 [12-24] days; adjusted P < .001) and a higher hospital mortality (24.7% vs 0.5%; adjusted P < .001). Moreover, IRVS was adversely associated with subsequent clinical outcomes including lower long-term survival (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-2.63; P = .004) when the analyses were restricted to 30-day survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with IRVS can experience ongoing risk of serious morbidity and less long-term survival even if alive at postoperative day 30. Our findings support the validity of using IRVS and/or death as a composite outcome measure for clinical studies in perioperative care medicine.

Sequential organ failure assessment score is an excellent operationalization of disease severity of adult patients with hospitalized community acquired pneumonia - results from the prospective observational PROGRESS study

BACKGROUND

CAP (Community acquired pneumonia) is frequent, with a high mortality rate and a high burden on health care systems. Development of predictive biomarkers, new therapeutic concepts, and epidemiologic research require a valid, reproducible, and quantitative measure describing CAP severity.

METHODS

Using time series data of 1532 patients enrolled in the PROGRESS study, we compared putative measures of CAP severity for their utility as an operationalization. Comparison was based on ability to correctly identify patients with an objectively severe state of disease (death or need for intensive care with at least one of the following: substantial respiratory support, treatment with catecholamines, or dialysis). We considered IDSA/ATS minor criteria, CRB-65, CURB-65, Halm criteria, qSOFA, PSI, SCAP, SIRS-Score, SMART-COP, and SOFA.

RESULTS

SOFA significantly outperformed other scores in correctly identifying a severe state of disease at the day of enrollment (AUC = 0.948), mainly caused by higher discriminative power at higher score values. Runners-up were the sum of IDSA/ATS minor criteria (AUC = 0.916) and SCAP (AUC = 0.868). SOFA performed similarly well on subsequent study days (all AUC > 0.9) and across age groups. In univariate and multivariate analysis, age, sex, and pack-years significantly contributed to higher SOFA values whereas antibiosis before hospitalization predicted lower SOFA.

CONCLUSIONS

SOFA score can serve as an excellent operationalization of CAP severity and is proposed as endpoint for biomarker and therapeutic studies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov NCT02782013 , May 25, 2016, retrospectively registered.

Severity scoring systems for pneumonia: current understanding and next steps

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To describe the current understanding and clinical applicability of severity scoring systems in pneumonia management.

RECENT FINDINGS

Severity scores in community-acquired pneumonia are strong markers of mortality, but are not necessarily clinical decision-aid tools. The use of severity scores to support outpatient care in low-risk patients has moderate-to-strong evidence available in the literature, mainly for the pneumonia severity index, and must be applied together with clinical judgment. It is not clear that severity scores are helpful to guide empiric antibiotic treatment. The inclusion of biomarkers and performance status might improve the predictive performance of the well known severity scores in community-acquired pneumonia. We should improve our methods for score evaluation and move toward the development of decision-aid tools.

SUMMARY

The application of the available evidence favors the use of severity scoring systems to improve the delivery of care for pneumonia patients. The incorporation of new methodologies and the formulation of different questions other than mortality prediction might help the further development of severity scoring systems, and enhance their support to the clinical decision-making process for the pneumonia-management cascade.

Pneumonia

Pneumonia remains the main cause of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases in the world. The important reason for the increased global mortality is the impact of pneumonia on chronic diseases especially in the elderly population and the virulence factors of the causative microorganisms. Because elderly individuals present with comorbidities, particular attention should be paid for multidrug-resistant pathogens. Streptococcus pneumoniae remains the most frequently encountered pathogen. Enteric gram-negative rods, as well as anaerobes, should be considered in patients with aspiration pneumonia. Interventions for modifiable risk factors will reduce the risk of this infection. The adequacy of the initial antimicrobial therapy and determination of patients’ follow-up place is a key factor for prognosis. Also, vaccination is one of the most important preventive measures. In this section it was focused on several aspects, including the atypical presentation of pneumonia in the elderly, the methods to evaluate the severity of illness, the appropriate take care place and the management with prevention strategies.

Factors Associated With Pneumonia Severity in Children: A Systematic Review

Community-acquired pneumonia in children is associated with significant morbidity and mortality; however, data are limited in predicting which children will have negative outcomes, including clinical deterioration, severe disease, or development of complications. The Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America (PIDS/IDSA) pediatric pneumonia guideline includes criteria that were modified from adult criteria and define pneumonia severity to assist with resource allocation and site-of-care decision-making. However, the PIDS/IDSA criteria have not been formally developed or validated in children. Definitions for mild, moderate, and severe pneumonia also vary across the literature, further complicating the development of standardized severity criteria. This systematic review summarizes (1) the current state of the evidence for defining and predicting pneumonia severity in children as well as (2) emerging evidence focused on risk stratification of children with pneumonia.