Usefulness and applicability of the revised dengue case classification by disease: multi-centre study in 18 countries

The Value of Warning Signs From the WHO 2009 Dengue Classification in Detecting Severe Dengue in Children

BACKGROUND

World Health Organization proposed 7 warning signs to identify the risk of severe dengue in 2009. This study aimed to evaluate the value of these warning signs in detecting severe dengue in children.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted utilizing data of children with clinical dengue infection obtained from medical records between January 2009 and December 2018 in Jakarta. Children with confirmed dengue were analyzed and stratified into 3 age groups: infants less than 1 year old, children 1-14 years and adolescents 15-18 years of age. Positive predictive value, negative predictive value (NPV), sensitivity and specificity of each warning sign present or absent on admission in detecting severe dengue were computed.

RESULTS

Six hundred ninety-nine children with clinical dengue infection were enrolled, among whom 614 (87.8%) had confirmed dengue infection, either by antigen or antibody serological tests. Severe dengue occurred in 211/614 (34.4%) cases. In infants, important warning signs on admission to detect or exclude severe dengue were liver enlargement (NPV 80.8%) and clinical fluid accumulation (NPV 75%). In children and adolescents, warning sign with highest NPV (in children 76.6% and in adolescents 91.9%) was increase in hematocrit concurrent with a rapid decrease in platelet count. Other warning signs with high NPV values in children were abdominal pain (72%), vomiting (70%), clinical fluid accumulation (69.3%), and in adolescents' abdominal pain (80.7%), vomiting (75.7%), clinical fluid accumulation (82.7%). NPVs increase with more than 1 warning sign in all age groups.

CONCLUSION

In infants, liver enlargement or clinical fluid accumulation are important warning signs for severe dengue, when both are absent, severe dengue is unlikely. In older children and adolescents, an increase in hematocrit with the concurrent rapid decrease in platelet count is most discriminative; followed by the absence of abdominal pain, vomiting or fluid accumulation are unlikely severe dengue.

Global and cell type-specific immunological hallmarks of severe dengue progression identified via a systems immunology approach

Severe dengue (SD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. To define dengue virus (DENV) target cells and immunological hallmarks of SD progression in children's blood, we integrated two single-cell approaches capturing cellular and viral elements: virus-inclusive single-cell RNA sequencing (viscRNA-Seq 2) and targeted proteomics with secretome analysis and functional assays. Beyond myeloid cells, in natural infection, B cells harbor replicating DENV capable of infecting permissive cells. Alterations in cell type abundance, gene and protein expression and secretion as well as cell-cell communications point towards increased immune cell migration and inflammation in SD progressors. Concurrently, antigen-presenting cells from SD progressors demonstrate intact uptake yet impaired interferon response and antigen processing and presentation signatures, which are partly modulated by DENV. Increased activation, regulation and exhaustion of effector responses and expansion of HLA-DR-expressing adaptive-like NK cells also characterize SD progressors. These findings reveal DENV target cells in human blood and provide insight into SD pathogenesis beyond antibody-mediated enhancement.

Twenty-two years of dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: epidemiology, clinical spectrum, serotypes, and future disease risks

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease and has become a major public health threat, particularly for tropical and subtropical countries including Bangladesh. This comprehensive review aims to summarize the overall scenario of dengue, including disease burden, clinical spectrum, seroprevalence, circulating serotypes/genotypes, and spatial distribution since the first recorded outbreak in Bangladesh. Since the first recorded outbreak in 2000, dengue epidemiology has shown the typical epidemic pattern with more frequent and bigger outbreaks and gradual geographic expansion to non-endemic regions in Bangladesh. For instance, highly confined Rohingya refugee camps that provide shelters to nearly 1.2 million forcibly displaced vulnerable Myanmar nationals in Cox's Bazar district confronted a massive outbreak in 2022. Recent major outbreaks are found to be associated with the emergence of serotype DENV-3, which was undetected for a long time. Consequently, changes in serotypes might be attributed to increased severity in clinical manifestation in recent years. The existing weak surveillance and risk management systems are inadequate to deal with impending dengue risks. The healthcare system, particularly at the district level, is not prepared to manage impending large-scale dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh. Our findings would contribute to the development of strategies for dengue control and management in Bangladesh as well as other similar settings elsewhere in the world.

Learning meaningful latent space representations for patient risk stratification: Model development and validation for dengue and other acute febrile illness

Background

Increased data availability has prompted the creation of clinical decision support systems. These systems utilise clinical information to enhance health care provision, both to predict the likelihood of specific clinical outcomes or evaluate the risk of further complications. However, their adoption remains low due to concerns regarding the quality of recommendations, and a lack of clarity on how results are best obtained and presented.

Methods

We used autoencoders capable of reducing the dimensionality of complex datasets in order to produce a 2D representation denoted as latent space to support understanding of complex clinical data. In this output, meaningful representations of individual patient profiles are spatially mapped in an unsupervised manner according to their input clinical parameters. This technique was then applied to a large real-world clinical dataset of over 12,000 patients with an illness compatible with dengue infection in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam between 1999 and 2021. Dengue is a systemic viral disease which exerts significant health and economic burden worldwide, and up to 5% of hospitalised patients develop life-threatening complications.

Results

The latent space produced by the selected autoencoder aligns with established clinical characteristics exhibited by patients with dengue infection, as well as features of disease progression. Similar clinical phenotypes are represented close to each other in the latent space and clustered according to outcomes broadly described by the World Health Organisation dengue guidelines. Balancing distance metrics and density metrics produced results covering most of the latent space, and improved visualisation whilst preserving utility, with similar patients grouped closer together. In this case, this balance is achieved by using the sigmoid activation function and one hidden layer with three neurons, in addition to the latent dimension layer, which produces the output (Pearson, 0.840; Spearman, 0.830; Procrustes, 0.301; GMM 0.321).

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that when adequately configured, autoencoders can produce two-dimensional representations of a complex dataset that conserve the distance relationship between points. The output visualisation groups patients with clinically relevant features closely together and inherently supports user interpretability. Work is underway to incorporate these findings into an electronic clinical decision support system to guide individual patient management.

A Novel CNN-TLSTM Approach for Dengue Disease Identification and Prevention using IoT-Fog Cloud Architecture

One of the mosquito-borne pandemic viral infections is Dengue which is mostly transmitted to humans by the Aedes agypti or female Aedes albopictis mosquitoes. The dengue disease expansion is mainly due to the different factors such as climate change, socioeconomic factors, viral evolution, globalization, etc. The unavailability of certain antiviral therapy and specific vaccine increases the risk of the dengue disease spreading even further. This arises the need for a novel technique that overcomes the complexities associated with dengue disease prediction such as low reporting level, misclassification, and incompatible disease monitoring framework. This paper mainly overcomes the above-mentioned problems by integrating the Internet of Things (IoT), fog-cloud, and deep learning techniques for efficient dengue monitoring. A compatible disease monitoring framework is formed via the IoT devices and the reports are effectively created and transferred to the healthcare facilities via the fog-cloud model. The misdiagnosis error is overcome in this paper using the novel Hybrid Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with Tanh Long and Short Term Memory (TLSTM) based Adaptive Teaching Learning Based Optimization (ATLBO) algorithm. The ATLBO optimized CNN-TLSTM architecture mainly analyzes the dengue-related parameters such as Soft Bleeding, Muscle Pain, Joint Pain, Skin rash, Fever, Water Site, Carbon Dioxide, Water Site Humidity, Water Site Temperature, etc. for an efficient clinical decision making and timely disease diagnosis. The experimental results are conducted using a real-time dataset and its performance is validated using various performance metrics. When compared in terms of different statistical parameters such as accuracy, f-measure, mean square error, and reliability, the proposed method offers superior results in the case of dengue disease detection than other existing methods. The ATLBO optimized hybrid CNN-TLSTM shows an accuracy of 96.9%, a precision of 95.7%, recall of 96.8%, and F-measure of 96.2% which is relatively high when compared to the existing techniques. The proposed model is capable of identifying the patients in a certain geographical region and preventing the disease emergency via immediate disease diagnosis and alerting the healthcare officials to offer the stipulated services.

An 8-gene machine learning model improves clinical prediction of severe dengue progression

BACKGROUND

Each year 3-6 million people develop life-threatening severe dengue (SD). Clinical warning signs for SD manifest late in the disease course and are nonspecific, leading to missed cases and excess hospital burden. Better SD prognostics are urgently needed.

METHODS

We integrated 11 public datasets profiling the blood transcriptome of 365 dengue patients of all ages and from seven countries, encompassing biological, clinical, and technical heterogeneity. We performed an iterative multi-cohort analysis to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between non-severe patients and SD progressors. Using only these DEGs, we trained an XGBoost machine learning model on public data to predict progression to SD. All model parameters were "locked" prior to validation in an independent, prospectively enrolled cohort of 377 dengue patients in Colombia. We measured expression of the DEGs in whole blood samples collected upon presentation, prior to SD progression. We then compared the accuracy of the locked XGBoost model and clinical warning signs in predicting SD.

RESULTS

We identified eight SD-associated DEGs in the public datasets and built an 8-gene XGBoost model that accurately predicted SD progression in the independent validation cohort with 86.4% (95% CI 68.2-100) sensitivity and 79.7% (95% CI 75.5-83.9) specificity. Given the 5.8% proportion of SD cases in this cohort, the 8-gene model had a positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) of 20.9% (95% CI 16.7-25.6) and 99.0% (95% CI 97.7-100.0), respectively. Compared to clinical warning signs at presentation, which had 77.3% (95% CI 58.3-94.1) sensitivity and 39.7% (95% CI 34.7-44.9) specificity, the 8-gene model led to an 80% reduction in the number needed to predict (NNP) from 25.4 to 5.0. Importantly, the 8-gene model accurately predicted subsequent SD in the first three days post-fever onset and up to three days prior to SD progression.

CONCLUSIONS

The 8-gene XGBoost model, trained on heterogeneous public datasets, accurately predicted progression to SD in a large, independent, prospective cohort, including during the early febrile stage when SD prediction remains clinically difficult. The model has potential to be translated to a point-of-care prognostic assay to reduce dengue morbidity and mortality without overwhelming limited healthcare resources.

Dengue Management in Triage using Ultrasound in children from Cambodia: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection with increasing global prevalence. It is endemic in more than 100 countries, with a heavy burden in Asia. Ultrasound findings including gallbladder wall thickening, ascites, and pleural effusions secondary to plasma leakage have been described in dengue. We aimed to determine if the presence of point-of-care ultrasound findings early in suspected dengue could predict clinical worsening in ambulatory pediatric patients.

METHODS

We did a prospective, single-blinded, observational cohort study at a children's hospital in Siem Reap, Cambodia during periods of dengue outbreak. Ambulatory patients were screened and children ages > 3 month and ≤ 16 years with suspected acute, non-severe dengue were enrolled. Subjects had chest and abdominal ultrasound exams. Independently, subjects were evaluated by a blinded physician who determined a treatment plan as per usual practice. Follow-up was conducted 7-10 days after the initial visit. Analysis of ultrasound findings was performed to determine their relationship with outcome measures including need for unplanned hospital visits or admissions.

FINDINGS

A total of 2,186 children were screened during periods of national dengue outbreak in Cambodia in consecutive years 2018-2019, and 253 children met eligibility criteria. Results showed patients with gallbladder wall thickening (> 3·0 mm) who were discharged had a significantly more likely need for unplanned visit or hospitalization than those with normal gallbladder wall, 67% (95% CI 44 - 84) versus 17% (95% CI 12 - 24), p < 0.0001. Subjects with any abnormal ultrasound finding were more likely to be directly admitted versus discharged upon initial presentation, 62·2% (95% CI 46.1 - 76.0) versus 19.5% (95% CI 14.8 - 25.4), p < 0.0001.

INTERPRETATION

Point-of-care ultrasound findings, particularly gallbladder wall thickening, in suspected early dengue can help predict disease progression in ambulatory patients. Ultrasound has potential to help guide management of suspected dengue patients and resource management during periods of dengue outbreak.

FUNDING

Society for Academic Emergency Medicine Foundation.

Integrated view of molecular diagnosis and prognosis of dengue viral infection: future prospect of exosomes biomarkers

Dengue viruses (DENVs) are the viruses responsible for dengue infection which affects lungs, liver, heart and also other organs of individuals. DENVs consist of the group of four serotypically diverse dengue viruses transmitted in tropical and sub-tropical countries of world. Aedes mosquito is the principal vector which spread the infection from infected person to healthy humans. DENVs can cause different syndromes depending on serotype of virus which range from undifferentiated mild fever to dengue hemorrhagic fever resulting in vascular leakage due to release of cytokine and Dengue shock syndrome with fluid loss and hypotensive shock, or other severe manifestations such as bleeding and organ failure. Increase in dengue cases in pediatric population is a major concern. Transmission of dengue depends on various factors like temperature, rainfall, and distribution of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The present review describes a comprehensive overview of dengue, pathophysiology, diagnosis, treatment with an emphasis on potential of exosomes as biomarkers for early prediction of dengue in pediatrics.

Applied machine learning for the risk-stratification and clinical decision support of hospitalised patients with dengue in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Identifying patients at risk of dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is vital for effective healthcare delivery. This can be challenging in endemic settings because of high caseloads and limited resources. Machine learning models trained using clinical data could support decision-making in this context.

METHODS

We developed supervised machine learning prediction models using pooled data from adult and paediatric patients hospitalised with dengue. Individuals from 5 prospective clinical studies in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam conducted between 12th April 2001 and 30th January 2018 were included. The outcome was onset of dengue shock syndrome during hospitalisation. Data underwent random stratified splitting at 80:20 ratio with the former used only for model development. Ten-fold cross-validation was used for hyperparameter optimisation and confidence intervals derived from percentile bootstrapping. Optimised models were evaluated against the hold-out set.

FINDINGS

The final dataset included 4,131 patients (477 adults and 3,654 children). DSS was experienced by 222 (5.4%) of individuals. Predictors were age, sex, weight, day of illness at hospitalisation, indices of haematocrit and platelets over first 48 hours of admission and before the onset of DSS. An artificial neural network model (ANN) model had best performance with an area under receiver operator curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.85) in predicting DSS. When evaluated against the independent hold-out set this calibrated model exhibited an AUROC of 0.82, specificity of 0.84, sensitivity of 0.66, positive predictive value of 0.18 and negative predictive value of 0.98.

INTERPRETATION

The study demonstrates additional insights can be obtained from basic healthcare data, when applied through a machine learning framework. The high negative predictive value could support interventions such as early discharge or ambulatory patient management in this population. Work is underway to incorporate these findings into an electronic clinical decision support system to guide individual patient management.

A study on maternal and foetal prognosis and predictive factors for adverse outcome in pregnant patients with dengue in an endemic state of India

Aims:

Dengue fever is a major health problem with high morbidity and mortality especially during epidemic season; pregnant females being no exception. But, there is paucity of published data on dengue fever during pregnancy. Hence, this study was planned to study the clinical profile, maternal outcome and predictors of poor outcome in pregnant dengue patients.

Materials and Methods:

All pregnant females attending labour room of Tata Main Hospital, Jamshedpur from April 2016 to October2020 with acute febrile illness caused by dengue virus at any gestational age were included in the study. Diagnosis of dengue was made by detection of NS1 antigen or dengue serology. A predesigned proforma was used to record materno-foetal outcomes and were analysed.

Results:

Dengue was the cause of fever in 7.1% febrile patients. Maternal complications included abortions (26%), abruptio (1.9%), postpartum haemorrhage (11.9%) . Of all the pregnant dengue patients, five had severe dengue(SD) with high mortality (3/5; 60%). Fetal complications were intrauterine death(7.7%),preterm(42.3%). Thrombocytopenia and elevated transaminases were associated with adverse outcome.

Conclusions:

Dengue fever in pregnancy is associated with poor outcomes more in cases of SD rather than dengue fever . Pregnant females with high risk predictors should be identified and managed aggressively in intensive care units to improve outcomes.

Successful Outpatient Management of Children at a Secondary Care Hospital in Pakistan in a Dengue Fever Epidemic and Their Clinical Outcomes

Background

There is limited published literature on the feasibility of WHO 2009 guidelines for the management of dengue fever (DF) in Pakistani children. This study aimed to assess the outcome of children with DF who received outpatient treatment according to these guidelines during a DF epidemic.

Method

This was a prospective cohort study conducted at Federal General Hospital, a secondary care hospital, Islamabad, Pakistan, from 1st August to 31st October 2019. Using WHO DF 2009 guidelines, children ≤13 years, diagnosed as confirmed DF (NS1 Ag +), were classified into the outpatient (DF) or the inpatient group (DF with warning signs or severe dengue (SD)). The inpatient group was admitted to the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences, a tertiary care hospital, and discharged on recovery. These children were followed for the primary outcome, i.e., recovery or hospitalization by day 14 of enrollment. Additionally, clinical and laboratory features (Hb, HCT, TLC, PLT, and ALT) of the patients in the outpatient who remained stable with those who progressed to inpatient care during follow-up were compared; also, time of recovery of blood counts was assessed.

Results

Of 93 children with DF, 87 (93.5%) received outpatient care at enrollment. Of these, 6 (7.8%) deteriorated by day 7 and were admitted to inpatient care. SD was present in 6/93 (6.4%) patients at presentation and were admitted. All children showed signs of recovery until day 14. Male gender (p=0.049), lower normal mean platelet (p=0.02), and high mean hematocrit (p=0.001) were associated with disease progression.

Conclusion

The majority of children with confirmed DF who received outpatient treatment according to WHO 2009 guidelines were successfully managed. Additionally, confirmed DF with warning signs or SD were admitted and recovered. Regular follow-ups according to the guidelines are pertinent. Thrombocytopenia and high HCT were associated with disease progression.

Survey of knowledge, attitude and practice of healthcare professionals on dengue transmission, diagnosis and clinical classification

BACKGROUND

To investigate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of the healthcare professionals (HCPs) including physicians and nurses regarding dengue transmission, diagnosis and clinical classification using the warning signs of World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 classification.

RESULTS

Out of 471 respondents from three countries, 80.9% of physicians and 74% of nurses did not receive previous training regarding the dengue infection. The majority of respondents could identify the primary dengue vector (86%), while only a third of HCPs knew the biting time of dengue mosquitoes. Only half of our respondents knew about immunity induced by serotypes; Moreover, half of our participants could determine the diagnostic tests. On the other hand, about 90% of the respondents took responsibility for talking to the patients about preventive measures. Our respondents also showed wide variations in definition of warning signs listed in the WHO 2009 classification. Multivariate analysis linked the impact of different cofactors including prior training on dengue infection, type of profession, frequency of taking care of dengue patients and country on how HCPs defined these warning signs.

CONCLUSIONS

This study could declare the variation in employing the warning signs listed in the WHO 2009 classification. We have figured that most of the HCPs did not take prior training on the dengue viral infection; Also, we found gaps in the knowledge regarding various topics in dengue fever. This paper recommends the gathering of efforts to establish the proper knowledge of dengue infection and the warning signs listed by the WHO.

Knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of severe dengue impede vaccine evaluation

The most severe consequences of dengue virus infection include shock, haemorrhage, and major organ failure; however, the frequency of these manifestations varies, and the relative contribution of pre-existing anti-dengue virus antibodies, virus characteristics, and host factors (including age and comorbidities) are not well understood. Reliable characterisation of the epidemiology of severe dengue first depends on the use of consistent definitions of disease severity. As vaccine trials have shown, severe dengue is a crucial interventional endpoint, yet the infrequency of its occurrence necessitates the inclusion of thousands of study participants to appropriately compare its frequency among participants who have and have not been vaccinated. Hospital admission is frequently used as a proxy for severe dengue; however, lack of specificity and variability in clinical practices limit the reliability of this approach. Although previous infection with a dengue virus is the best characterised risk factor for developing severe dengue, the influence of the timing between dengue virus infections and the sequence of dengue virus infections on disease severity is only beginning to be elucidated. To improve our understanding of the diverse factors that shape the clinical spectrum of disease resulting from dengue virus infection, prospective, community-based and clinic-based immunological, virological, genetic, and clinical studies across a range of ages and geographical regions are needed.

Risk predictors of progression to severe disease during the febrile phase of dengue: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The ability to accurately predict early progression of dengue to severe disease is crucial for patient triage and clinical management. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have found significant heterogeneity in predictors of severe disease due to large variation in these factors during the time course of the illness. We aimed to identify factors associated with progression to severe dengue disease that are detectable specifically in the febrile phase.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors identifiable during the febrile phase associated with progression to severe disease defined according to WHO criteria. Eight medical databases were searched for studies published from Jan 1, 1997, to Jan 31, 2020. Original clinical studies in English assessing the association of factors detected during the febrile phase with progression to severe dengue were selected and assessed by three reviewers, with discrepancies resolved by consensus. Meta-analyses were done using random-effects models to estimate pooled effect sizes. Only predictors reported in at least four studies were included in the meta-analyses. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochrane Q and I2 statistics, and publication bias was assessed by Egger's test. We did subgroup analyses of studies with children and adults. The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018093363.

FINDINGS

Of 6643 studies identified, 150 articles were included in the systematic review, and 122 articles comprising 25 potential predictors were included in the meta-analyses. Female patients had a higher risk of severe dengue than male patients in the main analysis (2674 [16·2%] of 16 481 vs 3052 [10·5%] of 29 142; odds ratio [OR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·01-1·26) but not in the subgroup analysis of studies with children. Pre-existing comorbidities associated with severe disease were diabetes (135 [31·3%] of 431 with vs 868 [16·0%] of 5421 without; crude OR 4·38 [2·58-7·43]), hypertension (240 [35·0%] of 685 vs 763 [20·6%] of 3695; 2·19 [1·36-3·53]), renal disease (44 [45·8%] of 96 vs 271 [16·0%] of 1690; 4·67 [2·21-9·88]), and cardiovascular disease (nine [23·1%] of 39 vs 155 [8·6%] of 1793; 2·79 [1·04-7·50]). Clinical features during the febrile phase associated with progression to severe disease were vomiting (329 [13·5%] of 2432 with vs 258 [6·8%] of 3797 without; 2·25 [1·87-2·71]), abdominal pain and tenderness (321 [17·7%] of 1814 vs 435 [8·1%] of 5357; 1·92 [1·35-2·74]), spontaneous or mucosal bleeding (147 [17·9%] of 822 vs 676 [10·8%] of 6235; 1·57 [1·13-2·19]), and the presence of clinical fluid accumulation (40 [42·1%] of 95 vs 212 [14·9%] of 1425; 4·61 [2·29-9·26]). During the first 4 days of illness, platelet count was lower (standardised mean difference -0·34 [95% CI -0·54 to -0·15]), serum albumin was lower (-0·5 [-0·86 to -0·15]), and aminotransferase concentrations were higher (aspartate aminotransferase [AST] 1·06 [0·54 to 1·57] and alanine aminotransferase [ALT] 0·73 [0·36 to 1·09]) among individuals who progressed to severe disease. Dengue virus serotype 2 was associated with severe disease in children. Secondary infections (vs primary infections) were also associated with severe disease (1682 [11·8%] of 14 252 with vs 507 [5·2%] of 9660 without; OR 2·26 [95% CI 1·65-3·09]). Although the included studies had a moderate to high risk of bias in terms of study confounding, the risk of bias was low to moderate in other domains. Heterogeneity of the pooled results varied from low to high on different factors.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis supports monitoring of the warning signs described in the 2009 WHO guidelines on dengue. In addition, testing for infecting serotype and monitoring platelet count and serum albumin, AST, and ALT concentrations during the febrile phase of illness could improve the early prediction of severe dengue.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Collaborative Project to Increase Production of Rural Doctors, and Royal Thai Government.

Clinical signs and symptoms associated with WHO severe dengue classification: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the new dengue classification in 2009. We aimed to assess the association of clinical signs and symptoms with WHO severe dengue classification in clinical practice. A systematic literature search was performed using the databases of PubMed, Embase, and Scopus between 2009 and 2018 according to PRISMA guideline. Meta-analysis was performed with the RevMan software. A random or fixed-effect model was applied to pool odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of important signs and symptoms across studies. Thirty nine articles from 1790 records were included in this review. In our meta-analysis, signs and symptoms associated with higher risk of severe dengue were comorbidity, vomiting, persistent vomiting, abdominal pain or tenderness, pleural effusion, ascites, epistaxis, gum bleeding, GI bleeding, skin bleeding, lethargy or restlessness, hepatomegaly (>2 cm), increased HCT with decreased platelets, shock, dyspnea, impaired consciousness, thrombocytopenia, elevated AST and ALT, gall bladder wall thickening and secondary infection. This review shows new factors comorbidity, epistaxis, GI and skin bleeding, dyspnea, gall bladder wall thickening and secondary infection may be useful to refine the 2009 classification to triage severe dengue patients.

Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics associated with dengue fever in 2011-2016 in Bang Phae district, Ratchaburi province, Thailand

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a major public health problem in Thailand, but data are often focused on certain dengue-endemic areas. Methods: To better understand dengue epidemiology and clinical characteristics in Thailand, a fever surveillance study was conducted among patients aged 1-55 years, who presented with non-localized febrile illness at Bang Phae Community Hospital in Ratchaburi province, Thailand from October 2011 to September 2016.

RESULTS

Among 951 febrile episodes, 130 were dengue-confirmed. Individuals aged 10-14 years were mostly affected, followed by those 15-19 years-of-age, with about 15% of dengue-confirmed cases from adults 25 years and older. There were annual peaks of dengue occurrence between June-November. Most prevalent serotype in circulation was DENV-2 in 2012, DENV-3 in 2014, and DENV-4 & -3 in 2015. Among dengue cases, 65% were accurately detected using the dengue NS1 RDT. Detection rate was similar between secondary and primary dengue cases where 66% of secondary vs. 60% of primary dengue cases had positive results on the NS1 RDT. Among dengue cases, 66% were clinically diagnosed with suspected dengue or DHF, prior to lab confirmation. Dengue was positively associated with rash, headache, hematemesis and alterations to consciousness, when compared to non-dengue. Dengue patients were 10.6 times more likely to be hospitalized, compared to non-dengue cases. Among dengue cases, 95 were secondary and 35 were primary infections. There were 8 suspected DHF cases and all were identified to be secondary dengue. Secondary dengue cases were 3.5 times more likely to be hospitalized compared to primary dengue cases. Although the majority of our dengue-positive patients were secondary dengue cases, with few patients showing manifestations of DHF, our dengue cases were mostly mild disease. Even among children < 10 years-of-age, 61% had secondary infection and the rate of secondary infection increased with age.

CONCLUSION

While the majority of dengue-confirmed cases were children, almost three-quarters of dengue-confirmed cases in this study were secondary dengue. Our study results consistent with previous data from the country confirm the hyperendemic transmission of DENV in Thailand, even in the non-epidemic years. With various interventions becoming available for dengue prevention and control, including dengue vaccines, decision-making on future implementation strategies should be based on such burden of disease data.

A Case Series of Severe Dengue with Neurological Presentation in Children from a Colombian Hyperendemic Area

Dengue transmission is sustained in Colombia with increasing prevalence mainly in children. This work aimed to describe a case series of children diagnosed with dengue presenting neurological disease in Huila Province of Colombia. Eleven pediatric febrile patients confirmed for dengue disease and presenting neurological signs were studied in the University Hospital of Neiva, Huila Province. Clinical and laboratory findings, CSF cytochemical analysis, neurology images, and serology and molecular studies were performed. Viral RNA was detected in all patients' sera by RT-PCR. Nine out of 11 were primary infections. Tonic-clonic seizures (73%), consciousness alterations (27%), irritability (27%), and ataxia (18%) were the most frequent neurological signs. None of the patients had plasma leakage, hypovolemic shock, or liver disease, confirming the encephalitis diagnosis. Diagnostic images did not show abnormal findings, but neither bacterial nor fungal infections were detected in CSF analysis. All patients survived without sequelae except for one patient that presented ataxia for months. In conclusion, we described a group of children with neurological signs during severe dengue disease as the main finding, indicating the importance to including dengue as a differential diagnosis in neurological patients from endemic areas.

Dengue Virus and Vaccines: How Can DNA Immunization Contribute to This Challenge?

Dengue infections still have a tremendous impact on public health systems in most countries in tropical and subtropical regions. The disease is systemic and dynamic with broad range of manifestations, varying from mild symptoms to severe dengue (Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever and Dengue Shock Syndrome). The only licensed tetravalent dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, is a chimeric yellow fever virus with prM and E genes from the different dengue serotypes. However, recent results indicated that seronegative individuals became more susceptible to develop severe dengue when infected after vaccination, and now WHO recommends vaccination only to dengue seropositive people. One possibility to explain these data is the lack of robust T-cell responses and antibody-dependent enhancement of virus replication in vaccinated people. On the other hand, DNA vaccines are excellent inducers of T-cell responses in experimental animals and it can also elicit antibody production. Clinical trials with DNA vaccines have improved and shown promising results regarding the use of this approach for human vaccination. Therefore, in this paper we review preclinical and clinical tests with DNA vaccines against the dengue virus. Most of the studies are based on the E protein since this antigen is the main target for neutralizing antibody production. Yet, there are other reports with DNA vaccines based on non-structural dengue proteins with protective results, as well. Combining structural and non-structural genes may be a solution for inducing immune responses aging in different infection moments. Furthermore, DNA immunizations are also a very good approach in combining strategies for vaccines against dengue, in heterologous prime/boost regimen or even administering different vaccines at the same time, in order to induce efficient humoral and cellular immune responses.

Data quality and arbovirus infection associated factors in pregnant and non-pregnant women of childbearing age in Brazil: A surveillance database analysis

The dengue surveillance system in Brazil has registered changes in the disease's morbidity and mortality profile over successive epidemics. Vulnerable groups, such as pregnant women, have been particularly hard hit. This study assessed the quality of notifications of dengue cases among pregnant women and non-pregnant women of childbearing age in Brazil, in addition to discussing the factors associated with arbovirus infection in the group of pregnant women. We carried out a retrospective study of cases registered in the national arbovirus surveillance system between 2007 and 2017. The indicator for assessing quality was incompleteness. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between dengue during pregnancy and sociodemographic, epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory variables. The incompleteness of the data in the notification form for dengue cases in women of childbearing age and pregnant women indicates a significant loss of information. Dengue was shown to be positively associated with Social Determinants of Health in both groups, with more severe effects among pregnant women. The incompleteness of the data can limit the quality of information from the notification system and the national assessment of the situation of the disease in women of childbearing age and pregnant women.

Dengue epidemic in a non-endemic zone of Bangladesh: Clinical and laboratory profiles of patients

BACKGROUNDS

Approximately, half of the population in the world including tropical and sub-tropical climates region is at risk of dengue. Being an endemic country, Bangladesh has experienced the largest dengue epidemic in 2019. The present study aimed at evaluating the clinical and laboratory profile of dengue patients in northern Bangladesh during the epidemic.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 319 serologically confirmed dengue patients admitted in Shaheed Ziaur Rahman Medical College Hospital in Bogra district. It is one of the main tertiary care hospitals in northern Bangladesh. Data were collected from July to September 2019. Patients' clinical and laboratory data were extracted from clinical records. Patients were classified into two classes according to the WHO 2009 dengue classification such as (i) non-severe dengue and (ii) severe dengue. Chi-square test and independent t-test were used in this study.

RESULTS

Of the 319 patients, 94.1% had non-severe dengue and the remaining 5.9% had severe dengue (severe plasma leakage 68.4%, severe organ involvement 68.4%, and severe clinical bleeding 10.5%). Most of the patients were suffering from primary dengue infection. The most common clinical presentation was fever followed by headache and myalgia. Vomiting and abdominal pain were the most prevalent warning signs. The common hematological findings on admission were leukopenia (63.3%), thrombocytopenia (30.4%) and increased hematocrit (26.6%). Raised serum ALT or AST was observed in 14.1% cases whereas raised serum creatinine was observed in 6.6% cases. Signs of plasma leakage (pleural effusion, respiratory distress, and ascites, rise of hematocrit >20% during hospital stay) and hepatic or renal involvement (serum ALT >42UI/L or serum creatinine >1.2 mg/dL) on admission were mostly associated with severe dengue.

CONCLUSION

The study provides clinical evidence on presentation as well as hematological and biochemical profile of dengue patients in northern Bangladesh that should be implicated in effective patient management.

Comparison of dengue case classification schemes and evaluation of biological changes in different dengue clinical patterns in a longitudinal follow-up of hospitalized children in Cambodia

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) proposed guidelines on dengue clinical classification in 1997 and more recently in 2009 for the clinical management of patients. The WHO 1997 classification defines three categories of dengue infection according to severity: dengue fever (DF), dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Alternative WHO 2009 guidelines provide a cross-sectional classification aiming to discriminate dengue fever from dengue with warning signs (DWWS) and severe dengue (SD). The primary objective of this study was to perform a comparison of two dengue classifications. The secondary objective was to describe the changes of hematological and biochemical parameters occurring in patients presenting with different degrees of severity during the course of the disease, since progression to more severe clinical forms is unpredictable.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We performed a prospective, monocentric, cross-sectional study of hospitalized children in Cambodia, aged from 2 to 15 years old with severe and non-severe dengue. We enrolled 243 patients with acute dengue-like illness: 71.2% were dengue infections confirmed using quantitative reverse transcription PCR or NS1 antigen capture ELISA, of which 87.2% and 9.0% of DF cases were respectively classified DWWS and SD, and 35.9% of DHF were designated SD using an adapted WHO 2009 classification for SD case definition. Systematic use of ultrasound at patient admission was crucial for detecting plasma leakage. No difference was observed in the concentration of secreted NS1 protein between different dengue severity groups. Lipid profiles were different between DWWS and SD at admission, characterized by a decrease in total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol, in SD.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results show discrepancies between the two classifications, including misclassification of severe dengue cases as mild cases by the WHO 1997 classification. Using an adapted WHO 2009 classification, SD more precisely defines the group of patients requiring careful clinical care at a given time during hospitalization.

Untapped Potential: A Qualitative Study of a Hospital-Based Dengue Surveillance System

The incidence and geographical distribution of dengue fever has increased in recent decades. The actual disease burden is unknown owing to frequent underreporting and misclassification of cases. A well-functioning system for diagnosing, treating, and reporting cases is of prime importance as disease statistics is the foundation for decisions aiming to control the disease. This study aimed to explore the hospital-based disease surveillance system in Yogyakarta, a dengue-endemic region on Java, Indonesia. Semi-structured interviews were performed with 16 informants from four hospitals, including five general practitioners, three internists, four pediatricians, and four administrative staff working with administration relating to dengue diagnostics and reporting. Data were analyzed using content analysis. A theme arose from the analysis “Dengue surveillance stands and falls by the rigor of the health system.” The theme, and underlying categories and subcategories, describes a surveillance system that in the best-case scenario works well and is likely to produce reliable dengue case data. However, there is a lack of synchronization between regulations and guidelines in different hospitals and some friction between regulatory bodies and the care provider. Knowledge among the staff appears to vary, and many clinical and financial decisions are made rather arbitrarily, which ultimately might lead to unequal health service delivery. In conclusion, the dengue surveillance system under study could improve further, particularly by ensuring that all regulations and recommended procedures are standardized and that all staff are given the best opportunity to stay updated on dengue-related matters, clinical as well as regulatory, on a regular basis.

Severe dengue and liver involvement: an overview and review of the literature

Introduction: Two billion population are at risk of dengue fever and by 2080, over six billion population will be at risk. Hepatitis is common in dengue and the liver is invariably involved in severe cases. We conducted a literature review using the PubMed database on articles covering a broad range of issues related to dengue and hepatitis.Areas covered: This article overviews available literature on changes in the definition of severe dengue, pathogenesis of liver involvement in dengue, clinical manifestations, and predictors of mortality in severe dengue with liver involvement, impact of viral hepatitis co-infections and hepatotoxic drugs, and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis.Expert commentary: Hepatitis is commonly seen in dengue however the degree of elevation of transaminases did not correlate well with severity of illness in observational studies, except in the elderly. The underlying pathogenesis of liver injury is still being elucidated and further studies are required to fully understand the cellular pathways. Acute or chronic viral hepatitis does not appear to affect dengue outcomes. Commonly used medications such as paracetamol and statins may influence dengue outcomes.

Warning signs and severe dengue in end stage renal disease dialysis patients

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

The 2009 WHO guideline established warning signs (WS) to predict severe dengue (SD). However, their positive predictive value has been found to be low in the general adult population, but they might be higher in a different population. This study investigated the association between WS and SD in end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on maintenance dialysis in Taiwan where both diseases are prevalent.

METHODS

This study enrolled ESRD dialysis patients with dengue in 2015. Demographic, laboratory data, symptoms/signs and complication of dengue were retrospectively collected from medical records at our hospital.

RESULTS

Of 49 ESRD patients with dengue, 44 patients were receiving hemodialysis and 5 peritoneal dialysis. Older patients (>65 years old) tended to have the WS(56% vs 16.7%, P = 0.007). The rate of hospitalization, intensive care unit admission and in-hospital mortality was 79.6%, 22.5%, and 8.2%, respectively. Eighteen patients (36.7%) presented WS and eighteen patients (36.7%) developed to SD, including ten with plasma leakage, twelve with hemorrhage, and six with organ failure. Patients with WS were seven times more likely to develop SD than those without (OR: 7.06; 95%CI: 1.34-37.21). WS was associated with plasma leakage (OR: 12.36; 95% CI: 1.56-97.74) and severe hemorrhage (OR: 5.1; 95% CI: 1.03-25.18), but not organ failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of SD is high in ESRD dialysis patients. The presence of WSs in this group was highly correlated with SD. Thus, more attention should be paid to treating ESRD patients with dengue fever if they present WSs.

Assessment of the new World Health Organization's dengue classification for predicting severity of illness and level of healthcare required

The objective of this study was to assess the validity of the new dengue classification proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2009 and to develop pragmatic guidelines for case triage and management. This retrospective study involved 357 laboratory-confirmed cases of dengue infection diagnosed at King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia over a 4-year period from 2014 to 2017. The sensitivity of the new classification for identifying severe cases was limited (65%) but higher than the old one (30%). It had a higher sensitivity for identifying patients who needed advanced healthcare compared to the old one (72% versus 32%, respectively). We propose adding decompensation of chronic diseases and thrombocytopenia-related bleeding to the category of severe dengue in the new classification. This modification improves sensitivity from 72% to 98% for identifying patients who need advanced healthcare without altering specificity (97%). It also improves sensitivity in predicting severe outcomes from 32% to 88%. In conclusion, the new classification had a low sensitivity for identifying patients needing advanced care and for predicting morbidity and mortality. We propose to include decompensation of chronic diseases and thrombocytopenia-related bleeding to the category of severe dengue in the new classification to improve the sensitivity of predicting cases requiring advanced care.

Dengue fever, the most prevalent arthropod-borne viral disease in humans, has been conventionally classified into four main categories: non-classical, classical, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and dengue shock syndrome. Several studies reported lack of correlation between the categories of the conventional classification and the disease severity. As a consequence, the World Health Organization proposed in 2008 a new classification that divides dengue into two categories: non-severe and severe dengue; the non-severe dengue is further divided into two categories: dengue with warning signs and dengue without warning signs. In this retrospective study we reviewed 357 cases of dengue diagnosed in our institution over a 4-year period to assess the validity of the new dengue classification in order to develop pragmatic guidelines for case triage and management in the Emergency Departments. We found that the sensitivity of the new classification for identifying severe cases was limited even though it had a higher sensitivity for identifying patients who needed advanced healthcare compared to the old one. We propose adding decompensation of chronic diseases and low platelets-related bleeding to the category of severe dengue in the new classification. This modification dramatically improves the sensitivity for identifying patients who need advanced healthcare and the sensitivity to predict severe outcomes.

Characterization of clinical patterns of dengue patients using an unsupervised machine learning approach

Background

Despite the greater sensitivity of the new dengue clinical classification proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2009, there is a need for a better definition of warning signs and clinical progression of dengue cases. Classic statistical methods have been used to evaluate risk criteria in dengue patients, however they usually cannot access the complexity of dengue clinical profiles. We propose the use of machine learning as an alternative tool to identify the possible characteristics that could be used to develop a risk criterion for severity in dengue patients.

Method

In this study, we analyzed the clinical profiles of 523 confirmed dengue cases using self-organizing maps (SOM) and random forest algorithms to identify clusters of patients with similar patterns.

Results

We identified four natural clusters, two with features of dengue without warning signs or mild disease, one that comprises the severe dengue cases and high frequency of warning signs, and another with intermediate characteristics. Age appeared as the key variable for splitting the data into these four clusters although warning signs such as abdominal pain or tenderness, clinical fluid accumulation, mucosal bleeding, lethargy, restlessness, liver enlargement and increased hematocrit associated with a decrease in platelet counts should also be considered to evaluate severity in dengue patients.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that age must be the first characteristic to be considered in places where dengue is hyperendemic. Our results show that warning signs should be closely monitored, mainly in children. Further studies exploring these results in a longitudinal approach may help to understand the full spectrum of dengue clinical manifestations.

Influence of chemokines on the endothelial permeability and cellular transmigration during dengue

During a pathogenic infection, an inflammatory process is triggered in which several inflammatory mediators, such as cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, complement system components, nitric oxide, and others induce integrity alteration on the endothelial barrier. Chemokines are responsible for regulating leukocyte trafficking under homeostatic conditions as well as activating immune system cells under inflammatory conditions. They are crucial molecules in the early stages of infection, leading to the recruitment of immune cells, namely neutrophils, monocytes, natural killer (NK) cells, natural killer T cells (NKT), dendritic cells (DC), T lymphocytes and all cells expressing chemokine receptors for inflammatory sites. Other functions, such as collagen production, tissue repair, a proliferation of hematopoietic precursors and angiogenesis, are also performed by these molecules. Chemokines, amongst inflammatory mediators, play a key role in dengue immunopathogenesis. Dengue fever is a disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV). It is characterized by a broad spectrum of clinical manifestations ranging from asymptomatic cases to mild and severe symptomatic ones. As for the latter, the appearance of hemorrhagic manifestations and changes in vascular permeability may lead the patient to develop cavitary effusions, organ involvement, and even death. As chemokines exert an influence on various homeostatic and inflammatory processes, acting vigorously on vascular endothelial activation and cell migration, the main purpose of this chapter is to discuss the influence of chemokines on the alteration of endothelial permeability and migration of T lymphocytes in DENV infection.

Environmental management for dengue control: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Dengue is among the most important mosquito-borne diseases, with more than half of the world's population at risk of infection in dengue endemic countries. Environmental management, which includes any activities that involve environmental modification, environmental manipulation and changes to human behaviour have been used to mitigate the risk of dengue transmission. In this protocol, we will integrate the data from various sources to assess the overall effect of environmental management on the incidence of dengue and other entomological indices.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

We will conduct a systematic review of intervention that assess the effect of environmental management on the incidence of dengue and/or entomological indices. We will include any studies that include intervention through environmental management for dengue control, involving environmental modification, environmental manipulation and changes to human behaviour. A comprehensive search will be performed in electronic databases PUBMED, CENTRAL, SCOPUS, Web of Science and relevant research websites such as PROPSERO, WHO ICTRP and ClinicalTrials.gov to identify studies that meet our inclusion criteria. A systematic approach to searching, screening, reviewing and data extraction will be applied based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis. Titles, abstract, keywords for eligibility will be examined independently by researchers. The quality of the included studies will be assessed using quality assessment tool for studies with diverse design and Cochrane risk of bias tool. The characteristics of the selected articles will be described based on the study design, types of intervention and outcomes of the study in various countries. These include the types of environmental management intervention methods and the effectiveness of the intervention in reducing dengue cases or incidence and impact on entomological indices.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We will register this systematic review with the National Medical Research Register, Ministry of Health Malaysia. This protocol also had been registered with the PROSPERO. No ethical approval is necessary, as there will be no collection of primary data. The results will be disseminated though a peer-reviewed publication and conference presentation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018092189.

30 years of fatal dengue cases in Brazil: a review

BACKGROUND

Over the last 30 years, extensive dengue epidemics have occurred in Brazil, characterized by emergences and re-emergences of different serotypes, a change in the epidemiological profile and an increase in the number of severe and fatal cases. Here, we present a review on the dengue fatal cases that occurred in Brazil in 30 years (1986-2015).

METHODS

We performed an ecological study by using secondary data on dengue fatal cases obtained in the National System of Reported Diseases (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação -SINAN) and in the Mortality Information System (SIM), both maintained by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Cases were analyzed by region, demographic variables, clinical classification and complications based on the data available.

RESULTS

In 30 years (1986-2015), the Southeast region reported 43% (n = 2225) of all dengue deaths in the country. The Midwest region was responsible for 18% of the fatal cases. After 2000, deaths occurred in almost all states, with the exception of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, South region. From 2006 to 2010, the number of deaths increased, with higher rates of mortality, especially in Goiás and Mato Grosso. From 2011 to 2015, Goiás became the state with the highest mortality rate in the country, and Rio Grande do Sul reported its first dengue deaths. In 30 years, a total of 2682 dengue deaths occurred in males and 2455 in females, and an equal distribution between the sexes was observed. From 1986 to 2006, dengue deaths occurred predominantly in individuals over 15 years old, but this scenario changed in 2007-2008. After 2009, fatal cases on individuals above 15 years old became more frequent, with peaks in the years of 2010, 2013 and 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

The Brazil is experiencing a hyperendemic scenario, which has resulted in the co-circulation of the four DENV serotypes and with the increasing occurrence of severe and fatal cases. The disease surveillance and studies characterizing what has been reported overtime, are still important tools to better understand the factors involved in the disease outcome.

Decoding the enigma of antiviral crisis: Does one target molecule regulate all?

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IL-6 class switching provides regulation over pro- and anti-inflammatory responses.

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Unregulated IL-6 trans-signaling promotes uncontrolled pro-inflammatory responses.

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ADAM-17 regulates class switching between IL-6 trans- and classical-signaling.

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Selective ADAM-17 blocking restricts overexpression of pro-inflammatory cytokines.

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ADAM-17 may be an antiviral drug target to reduce immunopathology disease severity.

Disease fatality associated with Ebola, SARS-CoV and dengue infections in humans is attributed to a cytokine storm that is triggered by excessive pro-inflammatory responses. Interleukin (IL)-6 acts as a mediator between pro- and anti-inflammatory reactivity by initiating trans- and classical-signaling, respectively. Hence, IL-6 is assumed to provide a target for a broad range of antiviral agents. Available immunosuppressive antivirals are directed to control an often exaggerated pro-inflammatory response that gives rise to complex clinical conditions such as lymphocytopenia. It is known that IL-6, via its soluble receptor (sIL-6R), initiates a pro-inflammatory response while an anti-inflammatory response is triggered by the membrane-bound IL-6 receptor (IL-6R). Future antivirals should thus aim to target the mechanism that regulates switching between IL-6 trans- and classical-signaling. In this review, we propose that the tumour necrosis factor-α converting enzyme ADAM-17 could be the master molecule involved in regulating IL-6 class switching and through this in controlling pro- and anti-inflammatory responses to viral antigenic stimuli. Therefore, ADAM-17 should be considered as a potential target molecule for novel antiviral drug discovery that would regulate host reactivity to infection and thereby limit or prevent fatal outcomes.

Development of standard clinical endpoints for use in dengue interventional trials: introduction and methodology

Background

As increasing numbers of dengue vaccines and therapeutics are in clinical development, standardized consensus clinical endpoint definitions are urgently needed to assess the efficacy of different interventions with respect to disease severity. We aimed to convene dengue experts representing various sectors and dengue endemic areas to review the literature and propose clinical endpoint definitions for moderate and severe disease based on the framework provided by the WHO 2009 classification.

Methods

The endpoints were first proposed and discussed in a structured expert consultation. After that, the Delphi method was carried out to assess the usefulness, validity and feasibility of the standardized clinical disease endpoints for interventional dengue research.

Results

Most respondents (> 80%) agreed there is a need for both standardized clinical endpoints and operationalization of severe endpoints. Most respondents (67%) felt there is utility for moderate severity endpoints, but cited challenges in their development. Hospitalization as a moderate endpoint of disease severity or measure of public health impact was deemed to be useful by only 47% of respondents, but 89% felt it could bring about supplemental information if carefully contextualized according to data collection setting. Over half of the respondents favored alignment of the standard endpoints with the WHO guidelines (58%), but cautioned that the endpoints could have ramifications for public health practice. In terms of data granularity of the endpoints, there was a slight preference for a categorical vs numeric system (e.g. 1–10) (47% vs 34%), and 74% of respondents suggested validating the endpoints using large prospective data sets.

Conclusion

The structured consensus-building process was successful taking into account the history of the debate around potential endpoints for severe dengue. There is clear support for the development of standardized endpoints for interventional clinical research and the need for subsequent validation with prospective data sets. Challenges include the complexity of developing moderate disease research endpoints for dengue.

Classification of dengue cases in Southwest India based on the WHO systems-a retrospective analysis

Background

The WHO dengue classification 1997 was revised in 2009 and the revised classification system has now been in use for the past decade. This study was carried out to compare the 1997 and revised classifications in assessing the severity of dengue infection among all age groups during a dengue outbreak in southwest India.

Methodology

This retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out including serologically confirmed dengue cases. A total of 1033 dengue cases were classified on the basis of the 1997 WHO classification and 2009 revised classification. The statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS 15.0 for Windows (SPSSTM Inc, Chicago, IL, USA).

Results

Both the 1997 and revised WHO classifications were applied to 1033 confirmed dengue cases, including 692 males (67%) and 341 females (33%). The median age of the study participants was 23 years (IQR 10-33), including 112 (10.8%) children at and below the age of 5 years. The level of agreement between the two systems of classification was poor (kappa=0.143, 0.055-0.198, p-value <0.001).

Conclusion

A greater sensitivity and specificity of the revised classification was observed in comparison with the 1997 WHO classification. In the context of changing dengue epidemiology and geographical expansion, the revised classification is helpful in the identification of severe cases, facilitating timely management.

Validation of Serum Aminotransferases Levels to Define Severe Dengue Fever in Children

PURPOSE

We aimed to study the pattern of liver-injury in children with dengue fever (DF) and validate serum aminotransferase ≥1,000 IU/L as a marker of severe DF.

METHODS

Children admitted with DF were included. DF was defined by presence of clinical criteria and positive serological or antigen tests in absence of other etiology. DF severity was graded as dengue without or with warning signs and severe dengue. Liver-injury was defined as alanine aminotransferase (ALT) more than twice the upper limit of normal (boys, 30 IU/L; girls, 21 IU/L).

RESULTS

Of 372 children with DF, 144 (38.7%) had liver-injury. Risk of liver-injury and aminotransferase levels increased with DF severity (p<0.001). Recommended ALT and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) cut-off at ≥1,000 IU/L had sensitivity 4.8% (5/105), specificity 99.3% (265/267) for detection of severe DF. In children with ALT and AST <1,000 IU/L (n=365), the area under receiver operating curves for prediction for severe DF, were 0.651 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.588-0.714; p<0.001) for ALT and 0.647 (95% CI, 0.582-0.712; p<0.001) for AST. Serum ALT at 376 IU/L and AST at 635 IU/L had sensitivity and specificity comparable to ≥1,000 IU/L for defining severe DF.

CONCLUSION

Liver-injury is common in DF. The ALT and AST levels increase with DF severity. ALT and AST levels of ≥1,000 IU/L could be lowered to 376 IU/L and 635 IU/L respectively for defining severe DF.

Different aspects of platelet evaluation in dengue: Measurement of circulating mediators, ability to interact with the virus, the degree of activation and quantification of intraplatelet protein content

Platelets play a role in hemostasis, coagulation, angiogenesis, inflammation and immune response is one of the most affected cells in dengue. Here we describe some aspects of platelets by observing their specific circulating mediators, the ability to interact with the virus and morphological consequences of this interaction, activation markers and intraplatelet protein contents in dengue. We conducted this study using dengue-patients as well as healthy donors. Immunoenzymatic assay, flow cytometry, transmission electron microscopy and intraplatelet proteins expression assays were carried out. Briefly, we found an increase in sCD62L, NO or TBX2 ratio in platelet count, mostly in patients with the worse clinical outcome. After in vitro DENV infection or during natural infection, platelets underwent morphological alteration with increased expression of platelet activation markers, particularly in natural infections. Analysis of intraplatelet protein contents revealed different angiogenic and inflammatory profiles, maintaining or not extracellular matrix integrity between DF and DFWS patients. Thus, platelets are frequently affected by dengue, either by altering their own functionality, as "carrier" of the virus, or as an antiviral and mediator-secreting effector cell. Thus, strategies aimed at recovering platelet amounts in dengue seem to be essential for a better clinical outcome of the patients.

30 years of dengue fatal cases in Brazil: a laboratorial-based investigation of 1047 cases

BACKGROUND

Dengue viruses (DENV) have emerged and reemerged in Brazil in the past 30 years causing explosive epidemics. The disease may range from clinically asymptomatic infections to severe and fatal outcomes. We aimed to describe the epidemiological, clinical and laboratorial aspects of the dengue fatal cases received by a Regional Reference Laboratory, Brazil in 30 years.

METHODS

A total of 1047 suspected fatal dengue cases were received from 1986 to 2015 and analyzed in the Laboratory of Flavivirus, FIOCRUZ. Suspected cases were submitted to viral detection, serological and molecular methods for cases confirmation. Influence of gender, age, serotype and type of infection (primary/secondary) on death outcome, as well the interactions between serotype and age or infection and age and type of infection were also studied.

RESULTS

A total of 359 cases (34.2%) were confirmed and DENV-1 (11.1%), DENV-2 (43.9%), DENV-3 (32.8%) and DENV-4 (13.7%) were detected. Overall, fatal cases occurred more often in primary infections (59.3%, p = 0.001). However, in 2008, fatal cases were mainly associated to secondary infections (p = 0.003). In 2008 and 2011, deaths were more frequent on children and those infected by DENV-2 presented a higher risk for fatal outcome. Moreover, children with secondary infections had a 4-fold higher risk for death.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue is a multifactorial disease and, factors such as viral strain/serotype, occurrence of secondary infections and co-morbidities may lead to a severe outcome. However, the high dengue incidence and transmission during epidemics, such as those observed in Brazil may overwhelm and collapse the public health services, potentially impacting on increased disease severity and mortality.

Dengue infection in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Dengue is the most extensively spread mosquito-borne disease; endemic in more than 100 countries. Information about dengue disease burden, its prevalence, incidence and geographic distribution is critical in planning appropriate control measures against dengue fever. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of dengue fever in India.

METHODS

We searched for studies published until 2017 reporting the incidence, the prevalence or case fatality of dengue in India. Our primary outcomes were (a) prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection among clinically suspected patients, (b) seroprevalence in the general population and (c) case fatality ratio among laboratory confirmed dengue patients. We used binomial-normal mixed effects regression model to estimate the pooled proportion of dengue infections. Forest plots were used to display pooled estimates. The metafor package of R software was used to conduct meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 2285 identified articles on dengue, we included 233 in the analysis wherein 180 reported prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection, seven reported seroprevalence as evidenced by IgG or neutralizing antibodies against dengue and 77 reported case fatality. The overall estimate of the prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection among clinically suspected patients was 38.3% (95% CI: 34.8%-41.8%). The pooled estimate of dengue seroprevalence in the general population and CFR among laboratory confirmed patients was 56.9% (95% CI: 37.5-74.4) and 2.6% (95% CI: 2-3.4) respectively. There was significant heterogeneity in reported outcomes (p-values<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Identified gaps in the understanding of dengue epidemiology in India emphasize the need to initiate community-based cohort studies representing different geographic regions to generate reliable estimates of age-specific incidence of dengue and studies to generate dengue seroprevalence data in the country.

Global dengue death before and after the new World Health Organization 2009 case classification: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Since the introduction of 2009 WHO dengue case classification, no literature was found regarding its effect on dengue death. This study was to evaluate the effect of 2009 WHO dengue case classification towards dengue case fatality rate.

METHODS

Various databases were used to search relevant articles since 1995. Studies included were cohort and cross-sectional studies, all patients with dengue infection and must report the number of death or case fatality rate. The Joanna Briggs Institute appraisal checklist was used to evaluate the risk of bias of the full-texts. The studies were grouped according to the classification adopted: WHO 1997 and WHO 2009. Meta-regression was employed using a logistic transformation (log-odds) of the case fatality rate. The result of the meta-regression was the adjusted case fatality rate and odds ratio on the explanatory variables.

RESULTS

A total of 77 studies were included in the meta-regression analysis. The case fatality rate for all studies combined was 1.14% with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.82-1.58%. The combined (unadjusted) case fatality rate for 69 studies which adopted WHO 1997 dengue case classification was 1.09% with 95% CI of 0.77-1.55%; and for eight studies with WHO 2009 was 1.62% with 95% CI of 0.64-4.02%. The unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio of case fatality using WHO 2009 dengue case classification was 1.49 (95% CI: 0.52, 4.24) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.26, 2.63) respectively, compared to WHO 1997 dengue case classification. There was an apparent increase in trend of case fatality rate from the year 1992-2016. Neither was statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

The WHO 2009 dengue case classification might have no effect towards the case fatality rate although the adjusted results indicated a lower case fatality rate. Future studies are required for an update in the meta-regression analysis to confirm the findings.

Development of a Prognostic Prediction Model to Determine Severe Dengue in Children

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic prediction model using the seven warning signs highlighted by WHO revised Dengue fever classification 2009 to determine severe dengue in children.

METHODS

In this prospective analytical study conducted in a tertiary care centre, consecutive sampling of all children aged 1mo to 12y admitted with serologically confirmed Dengue was done from May 2015 through August 2016. After excluding 27 patients with co-infections and co-morbidities, 359 patients were followed up daily to assess clinical and laboratory progression till discharge/ death. Independent predictors were abdominal pain or tenderness, persistent vomiting, lethargy, mucosal bleed, clinical fluid accumulation, hepatomegaly >2 cm and rising hematocrit concurrent with platelet count <100 × 10⁹/L. Outcome measure was severe dengue defined as per WHO guidelines 2009.

RESULTS

Among 359 children, 93 progressed to severe dengue. In univariate analysis, significant predictors were clinical fluid accumulation (OR 4.773, p = 0.000, 95%CI 2.511-9.075), persistent vomiting (OR 1.944, p = 0.010, 95%CI 1.170-3.225), mucosal bleed (OR 2.045, p = 0.019, 95%CI 1.127-3.711) and hematocrit ≥0.40 concurrent with platelet count <100 × 10⁹/L (OR 2.985, p = 0.000, 95%CI 1.783-4.997). The final multivariable model included clinical fluid accumulation (aOR 3.717, p = 0.000, 95%CI 1.901-7.269), hematocrit ≥0.40 concurrent with platelet count <100 × 10⁹/L (aOR 2.252, p = 0.004, 95%CI 1.302-3.894) and persistent vomiting (p = 0.056) as predictors of severe dengue.

CONCLUSIONS

Among seven WHO warning signs, predictors of severe dengue as suggested by the present multivariable prediction model include clinical fluid accumulation, persistent vomiting and hematocrit ≥0.40 concurrent with platelet count <100 × 10⁹/L.

[Science and technological innovation in health in Cuba: results in selected problemsCiência e inovação tecnológica em saúde em Cuba: resultados em problemas selecionados]

In Cuba, health research is based on the priorities of national scientific policy, derived from the health status of the population. The objective of this article is to describe the characteristics of the System of Science and Technological Innovation and how the results of its research benefit the health of the population groups. To this end, research related to the generation of products and technologies, diabetes, dengue and disability was selected. This system follows a methodology outlined by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment and has 37 research entities. It is organized into programs and projects that favor basic and applied research, with a multidisciplinary and intersectoral approach; these programs and projects are funded mostly by the State and are organized in self-contained cycles, i.e., the same entity is responsible for the entire process, from research to marketing, including market studies and post-marketing surveillance. The selected research shows an alignment between the research, the generalization of the results and its effect in improving health and universal access to health in the population. Positive results were obtained in diagnostic methods, preventive and therapeutic vaccines, warning signs for the prognosis and treatment of dengue, prevention of congenital malformations, and policies and programs that have benefited people with disabilities and their families. The will of the State to develop and fund scientific research, intersectoral action, the definition of research priorities, and the systematic training and attention to human resources have been key factors for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system.

Predicting the severity of dengue fever in children on admission based on clinical features and laboratory indicators: application of classification tree analysis

Background

Dengue fever is a re-emerging viral disease commonly occurring in tropical and subtropical areas. The clinical features and abnormal laboratory test results of dengue infection are similar to those of other febrile illnesses; hence, its accurate and timely diagnosis for providing appropriate treatment is difficult. Delayed diagnosis may be associated with inappropriate treatment and higher risk of death. Early and correct diagnosis can help improve case management and optimise the use of resources such as hospital staff, beds, and intensive care equipment. The goal of this study was to develop a predictive model to characterise dengue severity based on early clinical and laboratory indicators using data mining and statistical tools.

Methods

We retrieved data from a study of febrile illness in children at Angkor Hospital for Children, Cambodia. Of 1225 febrile episodes recorded, 198 patients were confirmed to have dengue. A classification and regression tree (CART) was used to construct a predictive decision tree for severe dengue, while logistic regression analysis was used to independently quantify the significance of each parameter in the decision tree.

Results

A decision tree algorithm using haematocrit, Glasgow Coma Score, urine protein, creatinine, and platelet count predicted severe dengue with a sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 60.5%, 65% and 64.1%, respectively.

Conclusions

The decision tree we describe, using five simple clinical and laboratory indicators, can be used to predict severe cases of dengue among paediatric patients on admission. This algorithm is potentially useful for guiding a patient-monitoring plan and outpatient management of fever in resource-poor settings.

Generation and Characterization of Antinonstructural Protein 1 Monoclonal Antibodies and Development of Diagnostics for Dengue Virus Serotype 2

Dengue virus (DENV) circulates in tropical and subtropical areas around the world, where it causes high morbidity and mortality. There is no effective treatment of infection, with supportive care being the only option. Furthermore, early detection and diagnosis are important to facilitate clinical decisions. In this study, seven monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) recognizing nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) of DENV were generated by hybridoma techniques. These antibodies can be divided into two groups: serotype-specific (DB6-1, DB12-3, and DB38-1) and nonspecific (consisting of antibodies DB16-1, DB20-6, DB29-1, and DB41-2). The B-cell epitopes of DB20-6 and DB29-1 were identified by phage display and site-directed mutagenesis, and its binding motif, WXXWGK, was revealed to correspond to amino acid residues 115-120 of the DENV-2 NS1 protein. A diagnostic platform, consisting of a serotype-specific capture antibody and a complex detection antibody, exhibited a detection limit of about 1 ng/mL, which is sufficient to detect NS1 in clinical serum samples from dengue patients. This diagnostic platform displayed better specificity and sensitivity than two examined commercial NS1 diagnostic platforms. In summary, our results indicate that these newly generated mAbs are suitable for detection of NS1 protein of DENV-2 in clinical samples.

Management of dengue in Australian travellers: a retrospective multicentre analysis

OBJECTIVES

To describe the epidemiology, clinical and laboratory features and outcomes of dengue in returned Australian travellers, applying the revised WHO dengue classification (2009) to this population.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective case series analysis of confirmed dengue cases hospitalised at one of four Australian tertiary hospitals, January 2012 - May 2015.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinical features, laboratory findings and outcomes of patients with dengue; dengue classification according to 2009 WHO guidelines.

RESULTS

208 hospitalised patients (median age, 32 years; range, 4-76 years) were included in the study. Dengue was most frequently acquired in Indonesia (94 patients, 45%) and Thailand (40, 19%). The most common clinical features were fever (98% of patients) and headache (76%). 84 patients (40%) met the WHO criteria for dengue with warning signs, and one the criteria for severe dengue; the most common warning signs were mucosal bleeding (44 patients, 21%) and abdominal pain (43, 21%). Leukopenia (176 patients, 85%), thrombocytopenia (133, 64%), and elevated liver enzyme levels (154, 76%) were the most common laboratory findings. 46 patients (22%) had serological evidence of previous exposure to dengue virus. WHO guidelines were documented as a management benchmark in ten cases (5%); 46 patients (22%) received non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs).

CONCLUSIONS

A significant proportion of returning Australian travellers hospitalised for dengue have unrecognised warning signs of severe disease. Many received NSAIDs, which can increase the risk of haemorrhage in dengue. As travel to Asia from Australia continues to increase, it is vital for averting serious outcomes that clinicians can recognise and manage dengue.

Epidemiological assessment of the severity of dengue epidemics in French Guiana

Background

Dengue fever is the most important arboviral infection that affects humans, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Here, we provide the first comprehensive overview of the severity of dengue epidemics in French Guiana.

Methodology/Principal findings

We monitored hospitalized cases between 2008 and 2013. Detailed clinical features and biological parameters were collected on a daily basis from all cases. Among the 1,356 cases, 216 (16%) were classified according to the WHO 2009 classification as dengue without warning signs (WS), 926 (68%) were classified as dengue with WS and 214 (16%) were classified as severe dengue. The severity rates were similar between the three major epidemics that occurred during the study period, whereas the hospitalization rate was highest in 2013. Fluid accumulation, aspartate aminotransferase (ASAT) counts>193 IU/L and platelet counts<75,000 cells/mm³ were associated with dengue severity.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings provide a recent epidemiological description of the severity of dengue epidemics in French Guiana. These results highlight the potential impacts and consequences of implementing the WHO 2009 classification on hospital activity. Future studies should include virological and immunological investigations of well-documented serum samples.

A Cohort Study of Adult Patients with Severe Dengue in Taiwanese Intensive Care Units: The Elderly and APTT Prolongation Matter for Prognosis

Background

There was a large dengue outbreak in Taiwan in 2015, in which the ages of the affected individuals were higher than those in other countries. The aim of this study was to explore the characteristics and prognostic factors for adults with severe dengue in intensive care units (ICUs).

Methods

All adults admitted to ICUs with dengue virus infection (DENV) at a medical center from July 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015 were enrolled. DENV was diagnosed by the presence of serum NS1 antigen, IgM antibodies to dengue virus, or dengue virus RNA by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Demographic data, clinical features, and lab data were collected, and a multivariate Cox model was used to identify the predictive factors for in-hospital mortality.

Results

Seventy-five patients admitted to ICUs with laboratory-confirmed DENV were enrolled (mean age 72.3±9.3 years). The most common comorbidities included hypertension (72.0%), diabetes (43.7%), and chronic kidney disease (22.7%). The in-hospital case fatality rate (CFR) was 41.3%. The patients who died were predominantly female, had higher disease severity at ICU admission, shorter ICU/hospital stay, longer initial activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and higher initial serum aspartate transaminase levels. Cardiac arrest before ICU admission (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.26 [1.91–20.54]), prolonged APTT (>48 seconds; HR: 3.91 [1.69–9.07]), and the presence of acute kidney injury on admission (HR: 2.48 [1.07–5.74]), were independently associated with in-hospital fatality in the Cox multivariate analysis.

Conclusion

During the 2015 dengue outbreak in Taiwan, the patients with severe dengue in ICUs were characterized by old age, multiple comorbidities, and a high CFR. Organ failure (including cardiac failure, and renal failure) and coagulation disturbance (prolongation of initial APTT) were independent predictive factors for in-hospital fatality.

Severe forms of dengue fever (DF) are usually considered as a pediatric disease in southern Asia and are graded from dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) to dengue with shock syndrome (DSS). However, the age of affected individuals is increasing in Singapore, Thailand, Mainland China, Taiwan and many other countries. Limited data are available on the elderly with DF in intensive care units (ICUs). DF in the elderly is an emerging infectious disease and poses a new clinical challenge to physicians. We enrolled the patients with laboratory-confirmed dengue in our ICU during the 2015 dengue outbreak in Taiwan. These patients were characterized by old age, multiple comorbidities, and a high case fatality rate (CFR). All of the patients were classified as severe dengue, and the in-hospital CFR was 41.3%. Renal failure and cardiac arrest were associated with fatality. In addition to organ failure, initial prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) in our study was consistent with an independent predictive factor for in-hospital fatality. Previous studies have also reported that prolongation of APTT is a clinical predictor of dengue virus infection (DENV) or DHF. Our results highlight that APTT prolongation may be a prognostic factor in critically ill adults with severe dengue.

Evaluation of the importance of fever with respect to dengue prognosis according to the 2009 WHO classification: a retrospective study

Background

The 2009 revised World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for dengue describe fever as the core symptom. Accordingly, the diagnosis of non-febrile patients is complicated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of fever in patients with dengue according to the 2009 revised WHO classification.

Methods

In this study, we assessed 30,670 dengue cases using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, detection of the non-structural protein 1, or polymerase chain reaction for diagnostic confirmation. Fisher’s exact test was used to evaluate associations between fever and related clinical manifestations. The Mann–Whitney U test was used to assess the association of dengue classification with fever and time to treatment. The effects of fever and time to treatment on the risk of progression were analyzed using an ordinal logistic regression to stereotype the model.

Results

Disease classification was found to associate significantly with both fever and time to treatment (both P < 0.001). Non-febrile patients were nearly four-fold more likely to exhibit “dengue without warning signs” than “severe dengue” (odds ratio [OR] = 3.74; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.20–4.36). Patients who received treatment within 7 days were twice as likely to have “dengue without warning signs” as opposed to “severe dengue” when compared to those who waited >7 days (OR = 2.23; 95% CI: 1.78–2.80). However, this difference was negligible in the multivariate analysis (OR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.98–1.07).

Conclusions

Fever is a risk factor for disease progression in patients with dengue. However, non-febrile patients should not be neglected because this may delay treatment and could lead to more severe disease.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2128-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Development and multi-use applications of dengue NS1 monoclonal antibody for early diagnosis

Swift and early diagnosis of dengue is important for case management and epidemiological purpose.