Time trends in smoking in Russia in the light of recent tobacco control measures: synthesis of evidence from multiple sources

Smoking status and voting behaviour and intentions in countries of the former Soviet Union

Smokers experience multiple disadvantages throughout their lives, yet there is another disadvantage, political, that is less widely recognised. Smokers are less likely to vote but only so far in studies conducted in Western democratic regimes. This cross-sectional study aimed to examine the association between current smoking and voting behaviour and intentions in nine countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU). Data were analysed from 18,000 individuals aged ≥ 18 in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine, collected in the Health in Times of Transition (HITT) survey in 2010/11. Information was obtained on smoking status and voting behaviour and intentions. In a fully adjusted logistic regression analysis, current smoking was associated with significantly higher odds of 'never voting' (not having voted in the past or intending to vote in future) in the pooled sample (OR: 1.29, 95% CI 1.13-1.47). In stratified analyses, smoking was associated with never voting in women but not men and in young but not middle-aged or older adults. The smoking-never voting association was observed in flawed democracies (OR: 1.57, 95% CI 1.07-2.32) and hybrid regimes (OR: 1.31, 95% CI 1.08-1.59) but not in authoritarian regimes (OR: 1.02, 95% CI 0.81-1.29). Smoking is associated with never voting in these FSU countries although not in all population subgroups or types of political regime. A necessary task for future research will be determining the factors associated with not voting among smokers in these countries.

Is the affordability of cigarettes associated with the prevalence of smoking and quitting at the regional level in Russia?

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco prices and income determine the affordability of cigarettes. Affordability in turn affects smoking prevalence. Both prices and incomes can vary widely across a large country. The aim of this paper is to find out whether there is an association between affordability of cigarettes and smoking/cessation prevalence across Russian regions. We assess the proportions of people who smoke and those who smoked and quit.

METHODS

We use microdata from a repeated survey on the living conditions of the Russian population that is representative at the regional level (2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 77 regions). We aggregate the microdata by region and combine them with official macro data. Using descriptive and multivariable analyses, we identify factors that correlate with the prevalence of smoking and quitting in the regions.

RESULTS

A one per cent increase in real prices was associated with a 0.1% decrease in the smoking prevalence rate and with a 0.2% increase in quitting prevalence rate. A 1% decrease in real income is associated with a 0.5% increase in the proportion of those who quit. The more cigarettes that can be purchased for a daily per capita income, the higher the smoking prevalence rate and the lower the proportion of quitting, with affordability elasticities of 0.1 and -0.27 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Rising real prices, as well as reduced affordability of cigarettes not only reduce the proportion of people who smoke, but also increase the proportion of those who quit. In a country with a large geographical spread and high regional income inequality, tobacco taxes should be set at the regional level to eliminate significant differences in the affordability of cigarettes.

Time trends in stomach cancer mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021

Objectives

Stomach cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer death, and its epidemiologic characteristics are regionally heterogeneous worldwide. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa) have markedly increasing influences on the international stage. We aim to investigate time trends in stomach cancer mortality among the BRICS countries from 1982 to 2021.

Methods

Data for this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 public dataset to investigate the deaths, all-age mortality rate, and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of stomach cancer. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to estimate net drift, local drift, age-specific curves, and period (cohort) relative risks, and the Bayesian generalized linear model was employed to evaluate the relationship between food intake and mortality rate.

Results

In 2021, there were approximately 572,000 stomach cancer deaths across the BRICS, accounting for 59.9% of global death. Russian Federation exhibited the most significant reduction in ASMR of stomach cancer among the BRICS. In contrast, China continued to report the highest number of stomach cancer deaths. The risk of mortality associated with stomach cancer exhibited a marked increase with advancing age, both within these countries and at the global level. PUFA, sodium, calcium and trans fat may have an impact on the mortality rate of stomach cancer. Favorable trends in period and birth cohort effects were observed in these five nations over the past decades.

Conclusion

BRICS countries have made varying progress in reducing stomach cancer mortality. Given the diverse environments, it is recommended to progressively develop customized stomach cancer prevention strategies, utilizing available resources. Healthcare services should be extended to all age groups, with a particular emphasis on vulnerable populations.

The trends of lung cancer burden in BRICS from 1990 to 2021 and its projection to 2035

Background

Lung cancer has become the malignant tumor with the highest morbidity and mortality in the world. This study aims to analyze the burden of lung cancer and risk factors associated with lung cancer in the BRICS from 1990-2021 and to project the burden of lung cancer in the BRICS from 2021-2035.

Methods

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database was searched to collect the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors of lung cancer in the BRICS. Trends in lung cancer burden from 1990-2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analyses were performed using R4.4.1 to project the disease burden of lung cancer from 2021-2035.

Results

AAPC(average annual percentage change) and EAPC(estimated average percentage change) of ASIR(age-standardized incidence), ASPR(age-standardized prevalence), ASMR(age-standardized mortality), and ASDR(age-standardized disability-adjusted life year) for lung cancer in Brazil, Russia, and Ethiopia 1990-2021 were less than 0. Egypt's AAPC and EAPC for ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were all greater than 0 for 1990-2021, and China's ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were all at the top of the BRICS in 2021. According to BAPC projection Brazil, Iran, Russia, and South Africa will have a decreasing trend in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR from 2021-2035. Egypt will have an increasing trend in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR from 2021-2035. With the exception of Ethiopia, the top tier level 1 and level 2 risk factors in the rest of the BRICS were behavioral factors and smoking factors, respectively.

Conclusion

The BRICS still have a heavy burden of lung cancer, and there are significant differences in the burden of lung cancer among the BRICS. At the same time, many BRICS lung cancer prevention and control measures are worth learning from other developing countries.

Trends in mortality due to tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer across the BRICS: An age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) is a major cause of mortality and top contributor to productivity loss in large emerging economies such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). We examined the time trends of TBL mortality across the BRICS to better understand the disease burden in these countries and inform public health and healthcare resource allocation.

METHODS

TBL mortality-related data between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and analyzed using age-period-cohort models. Net drift (local drift) was used to describe the expected age-adjusted TBL mortality rate over time overall (each age group); the longitudinal age curve was used to reflect the age effect; the period rate ratios (RRs) were used to reflect the period effect; and the cohort RR was used to reflect the cohort effect.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 958.3 thousand TBL deaths across the BRICS, representing 46.9% of the global TBL deaths. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of TBL decreased in Russia, Brazil, and South Africa while increased in China and India, with the largest reduction reported in Russia (-29.6%) and the largest increase in China (+22.4%). India showed an overall increase (+15.7%) in TBL mortality but the mortality risk decreased among individuals born after 1990 (men) and 1995 (women). Although South Africa and Brazil experienced an overall decline in TBL mortality, their recent birth cohorts, such as Brazilian individuals born after 1985 (men) and 1980 (women), and South African men born after 1995, had an increasing TBL mortality risk. China has experienced an overall increase in TBL mortality, with the mortality risk rising among individuals born after 1995 for both men and women. Russia, which had the highest TBL mortality among the BRICS countries in 1990, has demonstrated significant improvement over the past three decades.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past 30 years, the BRICS accounted for an increasing proportion of global TBL mortality. TBL mortality increased in older women in all the BRICS countries except Russia. Among the recent birth cohort, the risk of TBL mortality increased in Brazil, China, and South Africa. More effective efforts are needed in the BRICS to reduce the burden of TBL and help achieve the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

Sex differences in lung cancer incidence and mortality in Russia in the light of computed tomography usage expansion: breakpoint and age-period-cohort analyses

BACKGROUND

Russia has one of the highest lung cancer burdens globally, particularly in men. Mortality started to decline in the 1990s after the reduction in smoking prevalence. However, Russia's recent experience is largely unknown. This study aims to describe recent trends in the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Russia along with the use of computed tomography (CT).

METHODS

We obtained incidence data from national cancer reports covering 1993-2021 and mortality and population data from the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database covering 1965-2021. The number of CT scanners was obtained from the OECD. Changes in age-standardized rates (Segi-Doll, per 100,000) were assessed using segmented regression and temporal effects using age-period-cohort analysis.

RESULTS

Lung cancer rates in men have been substantially higher than in women and have declined sharply since their peak in the 1990s. The latest breakpoints in incidence in women were in 2012 (95 % CI: 2000; 2014) from stagnation with an annual change of 0.7 % (-0.2; 1.5) to 3.4 % (1.6; 5.2) increase. In men, the decrease in incidence stopped in 2013 (2011; 2014) from -1.8 % (-2.1; -1.4) to 0.3 % (-0.7; 1.3). The growing number of CT scans accompanied the recent changes in incidence rates. Incidence declined sharply in 2020 in men and women. There were no substantial changes in declining mortality trends. Period effects were visible after 2012 when incidence rates increased and deviated from mortality. After accounting for the period effect, generations born after the 1950s had lower risks.

CONCLUSION

Increasing lung cancer incidence rates in Russia in the late 2010s, especially in women, and the stable mortality trends could be a possible sign of diagnostic or treatment period effect. The increased use of CT should be monitored for possible benefits and harms.

Time trends in the incidence of interstitial lung disease across Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The global incidence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) has risen over the past few decades. However, few studies have evaluated the status and incidence trends of ILD in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study assesses the trends of ILD incidence across the BRICS with an emphasis on ILD changes from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Incidence rates were estimated by the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Age-period-cohort modelling was used to estimate the effects on ILD from 1990 to 2019, and the net drift and local drift were calculated.

RESULTS

In 2019, a total of 11.4 million cases of ILD were reported in the BRICS countries. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate of ILD in BRICS showed an upward trend. India consistently reported the highest incidence rate, while China showed the fastest growth rate (107.6%). Russia reported a similar incidence rates for men and women, with a lower age of peak incidence compared to the other four countries. We found the time effect was unfavourable for BRICS in the first decade, especially for Brazil; in China and Brazil, the risk of people born after 1960 has rapidly decreased.

CONCLUSION

ILD shows a rising incidence in BRICS. with the trends varying based on age and other environmental factors. BRICS should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies for different stages and populations.

[Prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease in Russia: a meta-analysis of population-based studies]

AIM

To systematize data on the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) in the adult population of Russia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The search for studies was conducted in the electronic databases MEDLINE/PubMed, EMBASE, and RSCI (Russian Science Citation Index) from January 2000 to December 2022. The review included relevant publications in peer-reviewed periodicals in English or Russian, publications with data from cross-sectional epidemiological studies assessing the prevalence of GERD in the Russian population, studies on adult patients with GERD, and publications with detailed descriptive statistics that allow using the data in the meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The final analysis included 6 studies involving 34,192 subjects. The overall prevalence of GERD (prevalence of heartburn ± regurgitation once a week or more frequently) in the analyzed studies was 25.605% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17.913-34.147). The analysis used a random effect model, as there was significant heterogeneity between the results in both groups (I2=99.63%; p<0.0001). The overall mean age of GERD patients in the study population was 48.14 (95% CI 32.25-4.03) years. The prevalence of GERD in the male population was 23.653% (95% CI 13.351-35.832) and 25.457% (95% CI 17.094-34.849) in females.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis demonstrated that GERD is a common esophageal disease in the Russian population, affecting approximately one in four country residents.

Unmet need for healthcare in the Russian Federation: subnational retrospective modelling analysis (2014-2018)

Introduction

Unmet need for healthcare is a proxy indicator used to assess the performance of healthcare systems throughout the world. While the Russian Federation is committed to improving healthcare for its citizens, barriers to access remain.

Methods

Using data from a region-level survey, we document and analyse the extent of the unmet need for healthcare at both national and subnational levels in the Russian Federation for the years 2014-2018. We used a panel fixed effects modelling approach to examine the link between unmet need and its correlates at the subnational level. We also used data from various sources that addressed the reasons underlying unmet need to interpret the findings from the modelling analysis.

Results

Approximately one-third of the Russian population (34.7% in 2018) reported that healthcare was not received when it was needed with little change observed between 2014 and 2018. We observed significant variation across the various regions in Russia. The prevalence of unmet need was substantially higher in the regions of the Volga, Siberia and Far East Federal Districts. Our analysis revealed that the density of hospital beds and economic development across regions were correlated with the prevalence of unmet need. Dissatisfaction with healthcare services, perceived lack of effective treatments and financial constraints were the main reasons offered for forgoing healthcare when needed.

Conclusions

An unanticipated positive link between unmet need and hospital bed density might be attributed to the low accessibility and quality of primary healthcare. High demand and supply of inpatient care do not compensate for the structural imbalances of the current healthcare model. Strengthening and improving the quality of primary care might significantly reduce the prevalence of unmet need.

Is Abstinence from Alcohol and Smoking Associated with Less Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms Among People with HIV?

Achieving abstinence from alcohol, tobacco, or both may improve mental health, but is understudied in people with HIV (PWH). The St PETER HIV randomized clinical trial compared varenicline, cytisine, and nicotine replacement therapy on alcohol and smoking behavior among 400 PWH in Russia. The primary exposure was thirty-day point prevalence abstinence (PPA) from (1) alcohol, (2) smoking, (3) both, or (4) neither and was assessed at 1, 3, 6 and 12-months as were the study outcomes of anxiety (GAD-7) and depressive (CES-D) symptoms. The primary aim was to examine the association between smoking and/or alcohol abstinence and subsequent symptoms of depression and anxiety. Primary analysis used repeated measures generalized linear modeling to relate PPA with mental health scores across time. In secondary analyses, Kruskal-Wallis tests related PPA with mental health scores at each timepoint. Primary analyses did not identify significant differences in anxiety or depressive symptoms between exposure groups over time. Secondary analyses found CES-D scores across PPA categories were similar at 1-month (11, 10, 11, 11) and 6-months (10, 10, 11, 11) but differed at 3-months (9, 11, 10, 12; p = 0.035) and 12-months (10, 6, 11, 10; p = 0.019). GAD-7 scores did not vary across PPA categories at any time point. While abstinence was associated with fewer depressive symptoms at times, findings were not consistent during follow-up, perhaps reflecting intermittent relapse. PWH with polysubstance use and mental health comorbidity are complex, and larger samples with sustained abstinence would further elucidate effects of abstinence on mental health.

Changing profiles of the burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias attributable to smoking in the belt and road initiative countries: A secondary analysis of global burden of disease 2019

Objectives

This study was aimed at analyzing the burden and trend of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias attributed to smoking (SADD) in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries during 1990-2019.

Methods

Data from The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study was used to extract information on the burden of SADD in terms of the numbers and age-standardized rate of mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASDALR) in the BRI countries for 1990-2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the temporal trends of ASDALR from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade by Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

The DALYs of SADD were the highest in China, India, and the Russian Federation in 1990 and in Lebanon, Montenegro and Bosnia, and Herzegovina in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDALR in China had increased from 55.50/105 to 66.18/105, but decreased from 2010 to 2019, while that of India had declined from 32.84/105 to 29.35/105, but increased from 2010 to 2019. The ASDALR showed the fastest increase in the Russian Federation, with AAPC of 1.97% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.77%, 2.16%), and the fastest decline in Sri Lanka, with AAPC of -2.69% (95% CI: 2.79%, -2.59%). ASMR and ASDALR from SADD showed a substantial decline during 1990-2019 both globally and in the different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions (all P < 0.05, except for the high-middle-SDI region). Compared to the rates in males, the AAPC in ASDALR of females was significantly greater in 20 countries(all P < 0.05). In the age group of 20-54 years, the DALYs rate showed a decreasing trend only in 13 members in the low-SDI region (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion

Under the premise of eliminating the differences, mobilizing resources in the country itself, the BRI organization, and globally will help reduce the global SADD burden and achieve healthy and sustainable development.

Trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to smoking in the five countries with the highest number of smokers during 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis

Introduction

Smoking increases the risk of various cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD). This study aimed to assess the impact of age, period, and cohort on long-term trends in IHD mortality in China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and Russia, the five countries with the highest number of smokers, from 1990 to 2019.

Material and methods

The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the magnitude and direction of trends in smoking-attributable mortality from IHD. Age-period-cohort (APC) studies were used to estimate net drift (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC)s), local drift (age-specific EAPCs), and independent trends in age, period, and cohort effects.

Results

The analysis revealed a significant downward trend in ASMRs attributable to IHD as a result of smoking in the United States, India, and Russia. Indonesia and China showed an upward trend. Age effects were increasing for both country and sex, with China showing the most significant increase in the older age group; period effects were decreasing in all countries except Indonesia, and cohort effects were increasing only in Indonesia and China.

Conclusions

From 1990 to 2019, mortality from IHD caused by smoking showed a downward trend in these five countries. However, the pattern of increased mortality from IHD in women caused by smoking warrants further study.

International burden of cancer deaths and years of life lost from cancer attributable to four major risk factors: a population-based study in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and United States

Background

We provide a comprehensive view of the impact of alcohol consumption, tobacco smoking, excess body weight, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection on cancer mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK), and United States (US).

Methods

We collected population attributable fractions of the four risk factors from global population-based studies and applied these to estimates of cancer deaths in 2020 to obtain potentially preventable cancer deaths and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Using life tables, we calculated the number and age-standardised rates of YLLs (ASYR).

Findings

In Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the UK, and the US in 2020, an estimated 5.9 million (3.3 million-8.6 million) YLLs from cancer were attributable to alcohol consumption, 20.8 million (17.0 million-24.6 million) YLLs to tobacco smoking, 3.1 million (2.4 million-3.8 million) YLLs to excess body weight, and 4.0 million (3.9 million-4.2 million) YLLs to HPV infection. The ASYR from cancer due to alcohol consumption was highest in China (351.4 YLLs per 100,000 population [95% CI 194.5-519.2]) and lowest in the US (113.5 [69.6-157.1]) and India (115.4 [49.7-172.7). For tobacco smoking, China (1159.9 [950.6-1361.8]) had the highest ASYR followed by Russia (996.8 [831.0-1154.5). For excess body weight, Russia and the US had the highest ASYRs (385.1 [280.6-481.2] and 369.4 [299.6-433.6], respectively). The highest ASYR due to HPV infection was in South Africa (457.1 [453.3-462.6]). ASYRs for alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking were higher among men than women, whereas women had higher ASYRs for excess body weight and HPV infection.

Interpretation

Our findings demonstrate the importance of cancer control efforts to reduce the burden of cancer death and YLLs due to modifiable cancer risk factors and promote the use of YLLs to summarise disease burden.

Funding

Cancer Research UK.

Preventable mortality in the Russian Federation: a retrospective, regional level study

Background

Avoidable mortality, including both treatable and preventable deaths, is frequently used as an indicator of health system performance. Whilst the term treatable mortality refers to deaths that might be averted by medical interventions, preventable mortality generally reflects the impact of system-wide health policies. The concept of preventable mortality has not been evaluated extensively in the Russian Federation, particularly at the regional or sub-national (oblast) level.

Methods

We calculated total preventable mortality as well as individual rates for males and females in each oblast using data from the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database (RusFMD) and computed the contributions of specific preventable causes of death to the overall rates. We also evaluated the relationship between preventable mortality and its main correlates during the years 2014-2018 using panel fixed effects modelling with variables that reflected both, behavioural risk factors and access to health care.

Findings

Overall preventable mortality in the Russian Federation has been on a downward trend. Whilst 548 preventable deaths per 100,000 person-years were reported in the year 2000, only 301 per 100,000 person-years were reported in 2018. Whilst mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular, and alcohol-related diseases has declined (albeit unevenly) amongst both males and females, deaths resulting from complications of diabetes and human immunodeficiency virus infection have increased. Our findings also revealed significant heterogeneity in preventable mortality at the oblast level. For example, in 2018, deaths due to preventable causes were concentrated primarily in Siberia and the Far East. Smoking and the availability of nurses were identified as significant correlates of preventable mortality at the oblast level.

Interpretations

Efforts designed to strengthen the current health care system, notably those serving the rural and less densely populated oblasts, might reduce the rate of preventable mortality in Russia. These efforts might be coupled with an ongoing focus on programs designed to reduce smoking.

Funding

None.

Prevalence of Smoking Various Tobacco Types in the Kazakhstani Adult Population in 2021: A Cross-Sectional Study

Tobacco use was the second-leading risk factor for death, accounting for 15.4% of total deaths in 2019. In 2019, 20.4% (2.7 million) of the adult population in Kazakhstan, 36.5% of men, and 6.0% of women smoked tobacco. A cross-sectional study of a random sample (n = 1201) was conducted between October and December 2021 in accordance with the STEPwise approach. The tobacco-use questions were focused on current and previous smoking status, initiation and duration of smoking, amount of tobacco use, exposure to secondhand smoke, and information related to quitting smoking. From 20.8% of smokers, 93.8% of men and 80.2% of women use tobacco products daily, χ2 = 10.983, p-score < 0.001. The earliest initiation of smoking was 6 years old. The prevalence of smoking tobacco products in Kazakhstan is 20.8%, which means that every fifth adult smokes. In addition, the proportion of smokers among men was 38.5%, and among women, it was 10.1%. A total of 93.8% of men and 80.2% of women smoked daily. The role of healthcare professionals in smoking prevention is very low, and only 16.9% of respondents have been advised to quit smoking in the last 12 months. New interventions for tobacco smoking prevention are urgently needed in Kazakhstan.

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent among the HIV-negative population and ranks first among the HIV-positive population. However, few studies have assessed tuberculosis trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or with an emphasis on HIV status. This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained tuberculosis data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD 2019). We calculated the relative proportion of tuberculosis to all communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases by HIV status across the BRICS. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate cohort and period effects in tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019, and calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks.

FINDINGS

There were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths. Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease much slower than China's (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24 per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in 2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980.

INTERPRETATION

BRICS' actions on controlling tuberculosis achieved positive results, but the overall improvements were less than those in high-income Asia Pacific countries. BRICS and other high-burden countries should strengthen specified public health approaches and policies targeted at different priority groups in each country.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073573; 72074009), Peking University Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group.

International patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades: A joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer, as the one of most fatal malignancies, remains a critical issue in the global burden of disease.

AIM

To estimate trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality worldwide in the last three decades.

METHODS

A descriptive epidemiological study was done. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the database of the World Health Organization. Analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality during 2020 was performed. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100000) were presented. To estimate trends of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, joinpoint regression analysis was used: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated. Additionally, analysis was performed by sex and age. In this paper, the trend analysis included only countries with high and medium data quality.

RESULTS

A total of 495773 (262865 male and 232908 female) new cases and 466003 (246840 male and 219163 female) deaths from pancreatic cancer were reported worldwide in 2020. In both sexes, most of the new cases (191348; 38.6% of the total) and deaths (182074; 39.1% of the total) occurred in the Western Pacific Region. In both sexes, the highest ASRs were found in the European Region, while the lowest rates were reported in the South-East Asia Region. The general pattern of rising pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality was seen across countries worldwide in observed period. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer incidence, females in France and India showed the most marked rise in incidence rates (AAPC = +3.9% and AAPC = +3.7%, respectively). Decreasing incidence trends for pancreatic cancer were observed in some countries, but without significance. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer mortality rates, Turkmenistan showed the most marked rise both in males (AAPC = +10.0%, 95%CI: 7.4-12.5) and females (AAPC = +6.4%, 95%CI: 3.5-9.5). The mortality trends of pancreatic cancer were decreasing in both sexes only in Canada and Mexico.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to explain the cause of large international differences in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in last three decades.

The first day of smoking abstinence is more challenging for women than men: A meta-analysis and meta-regression across 12 low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Maintained abstinence during the first 24 h of a quit attempt is a critical predictor of long-term smoking cessation. Little is known about sex differences in the very early abstinence period, particularly in the context of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with varying anti-smoking policies and female smoking prevalences. We examined female sex effects on one-day relapse in a cross-national sample from 12 LMICs.

METHODS

Data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (2008-2012) included nationally representative samples from 12 LMICs restricted to smokers with ≥ 1 quit attempt in the past 12 months (n = 16,576). We ran adjusted logistic regression models for female sex effects on one-day relapse, adjusting for nine individual-level demographics (e.g., age, education, age at smoking initiation) and smoking cessation variables (e.g., exposure to health warnings, receipt of counseling). We then conducted a meta-analysis adjusted for national-level and policy measures through meta-regression (e.g., cigarette consumption per capita, percent of cigarette box covered with warning labels).

RESULTS

One-day relapse prevalence varied across countries (2.7-13.6%). The odds of one-day relapse were significantly higher for women than for men in six countries (adjusted for nine individual-level sociodemographic variables), and there were no significant sex differences in the remaining six countries. Result remained significant after meta-regressions for national-level tobacco consumption and policy measures. Sensitivity analyses showed that the odds of one-day relapse for women remained significant when excluding countries with both higher and lower relative rates of female smoking. Larger warning labels on cigarette packs were associated with reduced odds of one-day relapse among women.

CONCLUSION

The first day of a quit attempt is more challenging for women than men in LMICs. Tailored interventions incorporating national policies, in addition to counseling and pharmacotherapy, could play an essential role in supporting women during the initial abstinence phase of smoking cessation in LMICs.

Socioeconomic inequalities in physiological risk biomarkers and the role of lifestyles among Russians aged 35-69 years

Background

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular (CVD) health outcomes are well documented. While Russia has one of the highest levels of CVD mortality in the world, the literature on contemporary socio-economic inequalities in biomarker CVD risk factors is sparse. This paper aims to assess the extent and the direction of SEP inequalities in established physiological CVD risk biomarkers, and to explore the role of lifestyle factors in explaining SEP inequalities in physiological CVD risk biomarkers.

Methods

We used cross-sectional data from a general population-based survey of Russians aged 35-69 years living in two cities (n = 4540, Know Your Heart study 2015-18). Logistic models were used to assess the associations between raised physiological risk biomarkers levels (blood pressure levels, cholesterol levels, triglycerides, HbA1C, and C-reactive protein) and socioeconomic position (SEP) (education and household financial constraints) adjusting for age, obesity, smoking, alcohol and health-care seeking behavior.

Results

High education was negatively associated with a raised risk of blood pressure (systolic and diastolic) and C-reactive protein for both men and women. High education was positively associated with total cholesterol, with higher HDL levels among women, and with low triglycerides and HbA1c levels among men. For the remaining risk biomarkers, we found little statistical support for SEP inequalities. Adjustment for lifestyle factors, and particularly BMI and waist-hip ratio, led to a reduction in the observed SEP inequalities in raised biomarkers risk levels, especially among women. High financial constraints were weakly associated with high risk biomarkers levels, except for strong evidence for an association with C-reactive protein (men).

Conclusions

Notable differences in risk biomarkers inequalities were observed according to the SEP measure employed. Clear educational inequalities in raised physiological risk biomarkers levels, particularly in blood pressure and C-reactive protein were seen in Russia and are partly explained by lifestyle factors, particularly obesity among women. These findings provide evidence-based information on the need for tackling health inequalities in the Russian population, which may help to further contribute to CVD mortality decline.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-022-01650-3.

The Health Status and Healthcare Utilization of Ethnic Germans in Russia

Ethnic German resettlers from the former Soviet Union are one of the largest migrant groups in Germany. In comparison with the majority of the German population, resettlers exhibit worse subjective health and utilize fewer preventive measures. However, there is little evidence on health among ethnic Germans who remained in Russia. Hence, the objective of this study was to determine the differences in subjective health, diabetes, smoking, and utilization of health check-ups between ethnic Germans and the majority population in Russia. We used data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey II from 1994 to 2018 (general population of Russia n = 41,675, ethnic Germans n = 158). Multilevel logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for age, sex, period, and place of residence. Analyses were furthermore stratified by the periods 1994-2005 and 2006-2018. Ethnic Germans in Russia rated their health less often as good compared with the Russian majority population (OR = 0.67, CI = 0.48-0.92). Furthermore, ethnic Germans were more likely to smoke after 2006 (OR = 1.91, CI = 1.09-3.37). Lower subjective health among ethnic Germans in Russia is in line with findings among minority populations in Europe. Increased odds of smoking after 2006 may indicate the deteriorating risk behavior of ethnic Germans in Russia.

Long-term trends in blood pressure and hypertension in Russia: an analysis of data from 14 health surveys conducted in 1975-2017

Background

Hypertension is recognized as an important contributor to high cardiovascular mortality in Russia. A comprehensive analysis of data from Russian studies that measured blood pressure in population-based samples has not been previously undertaken. This study aims to identify trends and patterns in mean blood pressure and the prevalence of hypertension in Russia over the most recent 40 years.

Methods

We obtained anonymized individual records of blood pressure measurements from 14 surveys conducted in Russia in 1975–2017 relating to a total of 137,687 individuals. For comparative purposes we obtained equivalent data from 4 surveys in the USA and England for 23,864 individuals. A meta-regression on aggregated data adjusted for education was undertaken to estimate time trends in mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure, the prevalence of elevated blood pressure (> 140/90 mmHg), and hypertension (defined as elevated blood pressure and/or the use of blood pressure-lowering) medication. A meta-analysis of pooled individual-level data was used to assess male-female differences in blood pressure and hypertension.

Results

During the period 1975–2017 mean blood pressure, the prevalence of elevated blood pressure and hypertension remained stable among Russian men. Among Russian women, mean systolic blood pressure decreased at an annual rate of 0.25 mmHg (p < 0.1) at age 35–54 years and by 0.8 mmHg (p < 0.01) at ages 55 and over. The prevalence of elevated blood pressure also decreased by 0.8% per year (p < 0.01), but the prevalence of hypertension remained stable. Mean blood pressure and prevalence of hypertension were higher in Russia compared to the USA and England at all ages and for both sexes.

Conclusions

In contrast to the generally observed downward trend in elevated blood pressure in many other countries, levels in Russia have changed little over the past 40 years, although there are some positive trends among women. Improved strategies to bring down the high levels of mean blood pressure and hypertension in Russia compared to countries such as England and the USA are important to further reduce the high burden of CVD in Russia.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12320-4.

Trends in tobacco smoking and smoking cessation in Russia with a focus on Indigenous populations: A narrative review

Introduction

Tobacco smoking is one of the main preventable causes of illness and premature death. Globally, more than 7 million people die annually from diseases associated with smoking, and this number is projected to increase to 8 million per year by 2030. Wide disparities in smoking prevalence exist by gender, age, socioeconomic status, rurality and ethnicity. In several countries, smoking is disproportionately high among the Indigenous populations.

Objective

This review assesses the prevalence and harm of smoking and current trends in smoking cessation among the diverse multi-ethnic populations of Russia, with a particular emphasis on Indigenous populations.

Data sources

We systematically searched health, nursing, social science and grey literature databases and bibliographies for relevant studies. Search strings combined keywords related to smoking prevalence and smoking cessation with keywords related to Russia and the Indigenous populations of Russia.

Study selection

Studies were included if they were published between 1 January 2005 and 14 October 2020, and if they reported prevalence of tobacco smoking and/or activities and outcomes of a smoking cessation programme or ban in the Russian Federation.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking is significant in the entire Russian population, a higher prevalence of smoking in Indigenous populations compared to the dominant Russian (Slavic) ethnic group is common. Smoking prevalence data for most of the Indigenous ethnic groups of Russia remains unclear. Tobacco control interventions for Indigenous groups are underdeveloped even though they have the potential to deliver proportionately greater reduction in smoking harm.

Mortality in Russia Since the Fall of the Soviet Union

Adult mortality increased enormously in Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union when the Soviet system collapsed 30 years ago. What has happened to mortality in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union? What explains the wide swings of mortality over time? This paper documents changes in mortality in Russia since 1989, and reviews the research in the economics and public health literature on the causes of the changes. The focus is on the post-2000 period, and the possible role played in recent declining mortality rates by Russia's alcohol and tobacco control policies. The two themes that emerge are (1) that government policies are critical for understanding both rising and falling male mortality over this period, and (2) that the underlying causes of the mortality crisis and its reversal are difficult to clearly identify empirically and remain, at best, partially understood, leaving much scope for future research on this issue.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41294-021-00169-w.

Risk Factors of In-Hospital Mortality in Non-Specialized Tertiary Center Repurposed for Medical Care to COVID-19 Patients in Russia

The purpose of our study is to investigate the risk factors of in-hospital mortality among patients who were admitted in an emergency setting to a non-specialized tertiary center during the first peak of coronavirus disease in Moscow in 2020. The Federal Center of Brain and Neurotechnologies of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency of Russia was repurposed for medical care for COVID-19 patients from 6th of April to 16th of June 2020 and admitted the patients who were transported by an ambulance with severe disease. In our study, we analyzed the data of 635 hospitalized patients aged 59.1 ± 15.1 years. The data included epidemiologic and demographic characteristics, laboratory, echocardiographic and radiographic findings, comorbidities, and complications of the COVID-19, developed during the hospital stay. Results of our study support previous reports that risk factors of mortality among hospitalized patients are older age, male gender (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.03–3.52), previous myocardial infarction (OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.47–6.73), previous acute cerebrovascular event (stroke, OR = 3.78, 95% CI 1.44–9.92), known oncological disease (OR = 3.39, 95% CI 1.39–8.26), and alcohol abuse (OR 6.98, 95% CI 1.62–30.13). According to the data collected, high body mass index and smoking did not influence the clinical outcome. Arterial hypertension was found to be protective against in-hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus pneumonia in the older age group. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio showed a significant increase in those patients who died during the hospitalization, and the borderline was found to be 2.5. CT pattern of “crazy paving” was more prevalent in those patients who died since their first CT scan, and it was a 4-fold increase in the risk of death in case of aortic and coronal calcinosis (4.22, 95% CI 2.13–8.40). Results largely support data from other studies and emphasize that some factors play a major role in patients’ stratification and medical care provided to them.

Socio-demographic, behavioural and psycho-social factors associated with depression in two Russian cities

BACKGROUND

Russia has a high burden of suicide and alcohol-attributable mortality. However there have been few studies of the epidemiology of depression.

METHODS

The study population was 5077 men and women aged 35-69 years from a cross-sectional population based survey in the cities of Arkhangelsk and Novosibirsk (2015-17). Moderate depression was defined as Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) score≥10. Risk factors considered were socio-demographic factors (age, sex, marital status, living alone, education, employment status, financial constraints); health behaviours (smoking, alcohol use) and psycho-social factors (life events and social support).

RESULTS

After mutual adjustment for all other factors, there was evidence that PHQ-9≥10 was associated with sex (higher in women), financial constraints, employment status, being a non-drinker, problem drinking, smoking, not having enough people to confide in and the number of life events in the past 6 months. Employment status was more strongly associated in men (OR 1.84 (95%CI 1.17, 2.88)) than women (OR 1.15 95% CI 0.86, 1.55). The effect size was particularly striking for financial constraints (odd ratio over 3 times higher in those with not enough money for food and clothes compared to no financial constraints), problem drinking (OR 1.72 (1.12, 2.65) among drinkers with CAGE score of 2 and 2.25 (95% CI 1.42, 3.57) in those with score ≥3 compared to zero) and life events (85% higher odds in those experiencing one life event and over 4 times higher odds in those experiencing 3 or more life events) all of which demonstrated a dose-response with PHQ-9>=10.

LIMITATIONS

The study was cross-sectional in nature therefore temporal relationships could not be assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified here a range of risk factors for depression among the Russian general population consistent with findings from other populations. The strikingly strong association with financial constraints indicates the importance of social inequality for the burden of depression.

Essential and non-essential elements in biological samples of inhabitants residing in Nenets Autonomous Okrug of the Russian Arctic

Exposure of Arctic residents to environmental pollutants is an emerging public health problem receiving little global attention. The objective of this study was to assess whole blood concentrations of nine selected essential (Co, Cu, Mn, Se, Zn) and non-essential (As, Cd, Hg, Pb) elements among Nenets and non-Nenets adult residents of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) living in seven coastal and inland settlements. Urine was collected in two settlements for assessment of iodine status. Altogether 297 whole blood and 68 urine samples were analysed by inductively coupled mass spectrometry and the accuracy of the measurements was assessed by use of human whole blood and urine quality control materials. Several essential and non-essential showed significant variations in whole blood concentrations characterized by gender, population group and locality. Cd levels among non-Nenets non-smokers (0.19 µg/L) indicated a dietary intake at a natural global background level. Hg concentrations in whole blood show that not more than 10% of women in the fertile age had a Hg intake above the EFAS's recommendation. The Pb concentrations were in the range of, or partly exceeding reference values for increased risk of nephrotoxicity, and there is a need for a continued effort to reduce Pb exposure among the population groups in NAO. With high prevalence of obesity among the Nenets and non-Nenets population, a high prevalence of Fe-deficiency among menstruating women (<50 years) (37.2%) and a lower I status than recommended by WHO, these nutritional dependent components deserve further attention.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Population Studies in Russia and Norway: Comparison of Prevalence, Awareness and Management

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite a high prevalence of smoking and respiratory symptoms, two recent population-based studies in Russia found a relatively low prevalence of obstructive lung function. Here, we investigated the prevalence of both obstructive lung disease and respiratory symptoms in a population-based study conducted in two Russian cities and compared the findings with a similar study from Norway conducted in the same time period.

Methods

The study population was a sub-sample of participants aged 40–69 years participating in the Know Your Heart (KYH) study in Russia in 2015–18 (n=1883) and in the 7th survey of the Tromsø Study (n=5271) carried out in Norway in 2015–16 (Tromsø 7) who participated in spirometry examinations. The main outcome was obstructive lung function (FEV₁/FVC ratio< lower limit of normal on pre-bronchodilator spirometry examination) with and without respiratory symptoms (chronic cough and breathlessness). In those with obstructive lung function, awareness (known diagnosis) and management (use of medications, smoking cessation) were compared.

Results

The age-standardized prevalence of obstructive lung function was similar among men in both studies (KYH 11.0% vs Tromsø 7 9.8%, p=0.21) and higher in the Norwegian (9.4%) than Russian (6.8%) women (p=0.006). In contrast, the prevalence of obstructive lung function plus respiratory symptoms was higher in Russian men (KYH 8.3% vs Tromsø 7 4.7%, p<0.001) but similar in women (KYH 5.9% vs Tromsø 7 6.4%, p=0.18). There was a much higher prevalence of respiratory symptoms in Russian than Norwegian participants of both sexes regardless of presence of obstructive lung function.

Conclusion

The prevalence of respiratory symptoms was strikingly high among Russian participants but this was not explained by a higher burden of obstructive lung function on spirometry testing in comparison with Norwegian participants. Further work is needed to understand the reasons and health implications of this high prevalence of cough and breathlessness.

Quantifying the contribution of established risk factors to cardiovascular mortality differences between Russia and Norway

Surprisingly few attempts have been made to quantify the simultaneous contribution of well-established risk factors to CVD mortality differences between countries. We aimed to develop and critically appraise an approach to doing so, applying it to the substantial CVD mortality gap between Russia and Norway using survey data in three cities and mortality risks from the Emerging Risk Factor Collaboration. We estimated the absolute and relative differences in CVD mortality at ages 40-69 years between countries attributable to the risk factors, under the counterfactual that the age- and sex-specific risk factor profile in Russia was as in Norway, and vice-versa. Under the counterfactual that Russia had the Norwegian risk factor profile, the absolute age-standardized CVD mortality gap would decline by 33.3% (95% CI 25.1-40.1) among men and 22.1% (10.4-31.3) among women. In relative terms, the mortality rate ratio (Russia/Norway) would decline from 9-10 to 7-8. Under the counterfactual that Norway had the Russian risk factor profile, the mortality gap reduced less. Well-established CVD risk factors account for a third of the male and around a quarter of the female CVD mortality gap between Russia and Norway. However, these estimates are based on widely held epidemiological assumptions that deserve further scrutiny.