The cost-effectiveness of controlling dengue in Indonesia using wMel Wolbachia released at scale: a modelling study

Wolbachia: A bacterial weapon against dengue fever- a narrative review of risk factors for dengue fever outbreaks

Arboviruses constitute the largest known group of viruses and are responsible for various infections that impose significant socioeconomic burdens worldwide, particularly due to their link with insect-borne diseases. The increasing incidence of dengue fever in non-endemic regions underscores the urgent need for innovative strategies to combat this public health threat. Wolbachia, a bacterium, presents a promising biological control method against mosquito vectors, offering a novel approach to managing dengue fever. We systematically investigated biomedical databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Science Direct, and Embase) using "AND" as a Boolean operator with keywords such as "dengue fever," "dengue virus," "risk factors," "Wolbachia," and "outbreak." We prioritized articles that offered significant insights into the risk factors contributing to the outbreak of dengue fever and provided an overview of Wolbachia's characteristics and functions in disease management, considering studies published until December 25, 2024. Field experiments have shown that introducing Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes can effectively reduce mosquito populations and lower dengue transmission rates, signifying its potential as a practical approach for controlling this disease.

Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections

Global risk maps are an important tool for assessing the global threat of mosquito and tick-transmitted arboviral diseases. Public health officials increasingly rely on risk maps to understand the drivers of transmission, forecast spread, identify gaps in surveillance, estimate disease burden, and target and evaluate the impact of interventions. Here, we describe how current approaches to mapping arboviral diseases have become unnecessarily siloed, ignoring the strengths and weaknesses of different data types and methods. This places limits on data and model output comparability, uncertainty estimation and generalisation that limit the answers they can provide to some of the most pressing questions in arbovirus control. We argue for a new generation of risk mapping models that jointly infer risk from multiple data types. We outline how this can be achieved conceptually and show how this new framework creates opportunities to better integrate epidemiological understanding and uncertainty quantification. We advocate for more co-development of risk maps among modellers and end-users to better enable risk maps to inform public health decisions. Prospective validation of risk maps for specific applications can inform further targeted data collection and subsequent model refinement in an iterative manner. If the expanding use of arbovirus risk maps for control is to continue, methods must develop and adapt to changing questions, interventions and data availability.

Exploiting Wolbachia as a Tool for Mosquito-Borne Disease Control: Pursuing Efficacy, Safety, and Sustainability

Despite the application of control measures, mosquito-borne diseases continue to pose a serious threat to human health. In this context, exploiting Wolbachia, a common symbiotic bacterium in insects, may offer effective solutions to suppress vectors or reduce their competence in transmitting several arboviruses. Many Wolbachia strains can induce conditional egg sterility, known as cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), when infected males mate with females that do not harbor the same Wolbachia infection. Infected males can be mass-reared and then released to compete with wild males, reducing the likelihood of wild females encountering a fertile mate. Furthermore, certain Wolbachia strains can reduce the competence of mosquitoes to transmit several RNA viruses. Through CI, Wolbachia-infected individuals can spread within the population, leading to an increased frequency of mosquitoes with a reduced ability to transmit pathogens. Using artificial methods, Wolbachia can be horizontally transferred between species, allowing the establishment of various laboratory lines of mosquito vector species that, without any additional treatment, can produce sterilizing males or females with reduced vector competence, which can be used subsequently to replace wild populations. This manuscript reviews the current knowledge in this field, describing the different approaches and evaluating their efficacy, safety, and sustainability. Successes, challenges, and future perspectives are discussed in the context of the current spread of several arboviral diseases, the rise of insecticide resistance in mosquito populations, and the impact of climate change. In this context, we explore the necessity of coordinating efforts among all stakeholders to maximize disease control. We discuss how the involvement of diverse expertise-ranging from new biotechnologies to mechanistic modeling of eco-epidemiological interactions between hosts, vectors, Wolbachia, and pathogens-becomes increasingly crucial. This coordination is especially important in light of the added complexity introduced by Wolbachia and the ongoing challenges posed by global change.

The cost of the production and release of male Aedes aegypti mosquitoes sterilised by irradiation

INTRODUCTION

Classic vector control tools do not sustainably reduce Aedes populations or prevent the surge of arboviruses. The sterile insect technique (SIT) by irradiation relies on mass-rearing and release of male insects that will not produce viable offspring. It has been successfully integrated into controlling agricultural and livestock pests. Experiments are conducted to determine the effectiveness of the approach for suppressing Aedes aegypti and curbing dengue transmission. Detailed implementation cycle costs have not been reported yet.

OBJECTIVE

To detail the costs of producing and releasing male A. aegypti mosquitoes sterilised by irradiation.

METHOD

We carried out a cost analysis during a SIT pilot trial in Havana. We took a provider perspective and used microcosting. From the cost function, we subsequently calculated costs for base case variations in production volume and mosquito release rate per hectare.

RESULTS

The setup expenses to establish the capacity to produce and release 450,000 mosquitoes weekly amounted to 155,452.00 and 2456.40 USD in capital means and training, respectively. The average number of sterile mosquitoes released per hectare per week during the trial was 1500, utilising 17% of the installed capacity. Including capital depreciation, the average cost per 10,000 sterile male mosquitoes released was 110.12 USD. When producing at 85% capacity, this reduces nearly threefold, to 41.06 USD. At that production level, releasing 500 or 4500 sterile male mosquitoes per hectare costs on average 2.70 or 16.54 USD per hectare covered. In densely populated areas with 500 inhabitants per hectare, this corresponds to 0.28 or 1.72 USD per inhabitant per year.

CONCLUSION

Our cost estimates for SIT by irradiation are within the range of estimates reported for alternative mass-rearing and release methods to control Aedes populations, and the approach appears competitive with insecticide-based interventions. The cost-effectiveness in different contexts remains to be investigated.

Wolbachia-based emerging strategies for control of vector-transmitted disease

Dengue fever is a mosquito-transmitted disease of great public health importance. Dengue lacks adequate vaccine protection and insecticide-based methods of mosquito control are proving increasingly ineffective. Here we review the emerging use of mosquitoes transinfected with the obligate intracellular bacterium Wolbachia pipientis for vector control. Wolbachia often induces cytoplasmic incompatibility in its mosquito hosts, resulting in infertile progeny between an infected male and an uninfected female. Wolbachia infection also suppresses the replication of pathogens in the mosquito, a process known as "pathogen blocking". Two strategies have emerged. The first one releases Wolbachia carriers (both male and female) to replace the wild mosquito population, a process driven by cytoplasmic incompatibility and that becomes irreversible once a threshold is reached. This suppresses disease transmission mainly by pathogen blocking and frequently requires a single intervention. The second strategy floods the field population with an exclusively male population of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes to generate infertile hybrid progeny. In this case, transmission suppression depends largely on decreasing the population density of mosquitoes driven by infertility and requires continued mosquito release. The efficacy of both Wolbachia-based approaches has been conclusively demonstrated by randomized and non-randomized studies of deployments across the world. However, results conducted in one setting cannot be directly or easily extrapolated to other settings because dengue incidence is highly affected by the conditions into which the mosquitoes are released. Compared to traditional vector control methods, Wolbachia-based approaches are much more environmentally friendly and can be effective in the medium/long term. On the flip side, they are much more complex and cost-intensive operations, requiring a substantial investment, infrastructure, trained personnel, coordination between agencies, and community engagement. Finally, we discuss recent evidence suggesting that the release of Wolbachia-transinfected mosquitoes has a moderate potential risk of spreading potentially dangerous genes in the environment.

Assessing the direct and spillover protective effectiveness of Wolbachia-mediated introgression to combat dengue

BACKGROUND

Dengue remains a global health challenge with limited treatment options, highlighting the need for effective vector control strategies. The introduction of Wolbachia pipientis into Aedes aegypti populations has shown success in reducing dengue transmission across global field trials. However, the spillover effectiveness of the technology on untreated areas is not well-known. This study estimates the spillover protective effectiveness (PE) of Wolbachia-mediated introgression on dengue.

METHODS

We used the synthetic control method (SCM) under assumption of partial interference to evaluate the direct and spillover PEs of Wolbachia-mediated introgression in a long-running operational trial of the intervention in Malaysia. Synthetic controls (SCs), which comprise of a weighted sum of non-spillover controls, were constructed for each directly-treated and spillover site in the pre-intervention period to account for historical imbalances in dengue risk and risk trajectories. SCs were compared to directly/spillover-treated sites to estimate the impact of Wolbachia-introgression on dengue incidence across each site, calendar year and intervention time. Robustness checks, including visual inspections, root-mean-square error (RMSE) calculations, in-space and in-time placebo checks, and permutation tests, were used to inspect the model's ability in attributing dengue incidence reductions to the Wolbachia interventions.

FINDINGS

The direct and spillover PEs of Wolbachia on dengue incidence were expressed as a percentage reduction of dengue incidence, or the absolute case reductions, by comparing SCs to actual intervention/spillover sites. Findings indicate a direct reduction in dengue incidence by 64.35% (95% CI: 63.50-66.71, p < 0.05 using permutation tests) in directly treated areas, corresponding to 1802 (95% CI: 1768-1932) cases averted. Meanwhile, spillover effects contributed to a 37.69% (95% CI: 36.45-38.49, p < 0.05) reduction in adjacent non-intervention areas, accounting for 115 (95% CI: 104-132) absolute cases averted. Tracking PEs by intervention time revealed a dose-response relationship, where PEs increased concomitantly with Wolbachia frequency. Model checks confirmed the robustness of these results, and ascertained that these PEs were not an artefact of poor control selection, pre-trends in dengue incidence or poor predictive ability of the fitted SCs.

INTERPRETATION

Wolbachia-introgression effectively diminished dengue incidence in directly-treated and surrounding spillover regions. This dual effectiveness highlights the potential of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes as a sustainable, cost-effective strategy against dengue.

FUNDING

This research is hosted by CNRS@CREATE and supported by the National Research Foundation, Prime Minister's Office, Singapore, under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE) program, and is funded by the Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine-Ministry of Education Start-Up Grant. The original Hoffmann et al. (2024) study was funded by the Wellcome Trust Awards 226166, 108508, 202888 and the Ministry of Health Malaysia NMRR-16-297-28898.

Using models and maps to inform Target Product Profiles and Preferred Product Characteristics: the example of Wolbachia replacement

Background

The global prevalence of diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika and Yellow Fever, is increasing, but development of promising new mosquito control technologies could reverse this trend. Target Product Profiles (TPPs) and Preferred Product Characteristics (PPCs) documents issued by the World Health Organization can guide the research and development pathways of new products and product combinations transitioning from proof of concept to operational use.

Methods

We used high resolution global maps of the case and economic burden of dengue to derive programmatic cost targets to support a TPP for Wolbachia replacement. A compartmental entomological model was used to explore how release size, spacing and timing affect replacement speed and acceptability. To support a PPC for a hybrid suppress-then-replace approach we tested whether Wolbachia replacement could be achieved faster, more acceptably or at a lower cost if preceded by a mosquito suppression programme.

Results

We show how models can reveal trade-offs, identify quantitative thresholds and prioritise areas and intervention strategies for further development. We estimate that for Wolbachia replacement to be deployable in enough areas to make major contributions to reducing global dengue burden by 25% (in line with 2030 WHO targets), it must have the potential for cost to be reduced to between $7.63 and $0.24 (USD) per person protected or less. Suppression can reduce the number of Wolbachia mosquitoes necessary to achieve replacement fixation by up to 80%. A hybrid approach can also achieve fixation faster and potentially improve acceptability, but may not justify their cost if they require major new investments in suppression technologies.

Conclusions

Here we demonstrate the value dedicated modelling can provide for interdisciplinary groups of experts when developing TPPs and PPCs. These models could be used by product developers to prioritise and shape development decisions for new Wolbachia replacement products.

[Rapid review: effectiveness of the Wolbachia strategy for arbovirus controlRevisión sistemática rápida: efectividad de la estrategia de control con Wolbachia en la lucha contra las arbovirosis]

Objective

To identify and synthesize evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Wolbachia-Aedes methodology for reducing cases of arboviral infection.

Methodology

Rapid systematic review. A search of five online portals and bibliographic databases was conducted in February 2022. Two reviewers conducted the selection stages, with any disagreements resolved by a third investigator. Data were extracted by one reviewer and subsequently checked by another. The inclusion criteria were studies describing the cost-effectiveness and effectiveness of the Wolbachia-Aedes methodology, based on field interventions, published in Portuguese, English, and Spanish, with no restrictions on date of publication.

Results

Four studies were included: one cluster randomized trial, two quasi-experimental studies, and one pre-post study, published between 2019 and 2021 in four countries. The included studies reported effectiveness for some of the outcomes of interest, such as a reduction in the incidence of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya cases. Although no experimental studies addressing the cost-effectiveness of the Wolbachia-Aedes strategy were identified, some modeling studies have demonstrated potential cost-benefit of this methodology.

Conclusion

Considering the results of the included studies, Wolbachia has the potential to be an economically effective strategy that leads to reductions in the incidence of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Nevertheless, this strategy cannot yet be recommended as a public policy; additional large-scale studies with high methodological quality are still needed to inform political decision-making.

Estimating dengue disease and economic burden to inform municipal-level policymakers: Method for a pragmatic city-level observational cohort study

Background

Recent trials have confirmed the effectiveness of promising dengue control technologies - two vaccines and Wolbachia. These would generally be applied at the municipal level. To help local officials decide which, if any, control strategy to implement, they need affordable, timely, and accurate data on dengue burden. Building on our previous work in Mexico, Indonesia, and Thailand, we developed a streamlined prospective method to estimate dengue burden at the municipal level quickly, accurately, and efficiently.

Methods

The method entails enrolling and repeatedly interviewing 100 patients with laboratory-confirmed dengue. They will be selected after screening and testing about 1,000 patients with clinical dengue. The method will capture both acute and chronic effects relating to disease, economic burden, and psychological impacts (presenteeism). The total time requirements are 1.5 years, comprised of 0.25 years for planning and approvals, 1 year for data collection (a full dengue cycle), and 0 .25 years for data cleaning and analysis. A collaboration with municipal and academic colleagues in the city of Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia shows how the method could be readily applied in Indonesia's eighth largest city (population 1.8 million).

Conclusions

Many surveillance studies gather only information on numbers of cases. This proposed method will provide a comprehensive picture of the dengue burden to the health system, payers, and households at the local level.

Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

Economic optimization of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti release to prevent dengue

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is a major public health concern affecting ≈3.83 billion people worldwide. Recent releases of Wolbachia-transinfected Ae. aegypti in several cities worldwide have shown that it can reduce dengue transmission. However, these releases are costly, and, to date, no framework has been proposed for determining economically optimal release strategies that account for both costs associated with disease risk and releases.

RESULTS

We present a flexible stochastic dynamic programming framework for determining optimal release schedules for Wolbachia-transinfected mosquitoes that balances the cost of dengue infection with the costs of rearing and releasing transinfected mosquitoes. Using an ordinary differential equation model of Wolbachia and dengue in a hypothetical city loosely describing areas at risk of new dengue epidemics, we determined that an all-or-nothing release strategy that quickly brings Wolbachia to fixation is often the optimal solution. Based on this, we examined the optimal facility size, finding that it was inelastic with respect to the mosquito population size, with a 100% increase in population size resulting in a 50-67% increase in optimal facility size. Furthermore, we found that these results are robust to mosquito life-history parameters and are mostly determined by the mosquito population size and the fitness costs associated with Wolbachia.

CONCLUSIONS

These results reinforce that Wolbachia-transinfected mosquitoes can reduce the cost of dengue epidemics. Furthermore, they emphasize the importance of determining the size of the target population and fitness costs associated with Wolbachia before releases occur. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

The rising global economic costs of invasive Aedes mosquitoes and Aedes-borne diseases

Invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes transmit viruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika, posing a huge public health burden as well as having a less well understood economic impact. We present a comprehensive, global-scale synthesis of studies reporting these economic costs, spanning 166 countries and territories over 45 years. The minimum cumulative reported cost estimate expressed in 2022 US$ was 94.7 billion, although this figure reflects considerable underreporting and underestimation. The analysis suggests a 14-fold increase in costs, with an average annual expenditure of US$ 3.1 billion, and a maximum of US$ 20.3 billion in 2013. Damage and losses were an order of magnitude higher than investment in management, with only a modest portion allocated to prevention. Effective control measures are urgently needed to safeguard global health and well-being, and to reduce the economic burden on human societies. This study fills a critical gap by addressing the increasing economic costs of Aedes and Aedes-borne diseases and offers insights to inform evidence-based policy.

Simulation-based economic evaluation of the Wolbachia method in Brazil: a cost-effective strategy for dengue control

Background

Dengue virus (DENV) is an arbovirus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which can cause severe conditions such as hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. These conditions are associated with adverse social, clinical, and economic consequences in Brazil. Herein, the Wolbachia mosquito replacement method is a promising dengue control strategy.

Methods

We estimated the economic impact of implementing the Wolbachia mosquito replacement method in seven Brazilian cities. A mathematical microsimulation model tracked nearly 23 million inhabitants over a 20-year period, considering the transitions between five different health states (susceptible, inapparent, outpatient, hospitalised and death). Direct costs included local dengue control programs, Wolbachia implementation and dengue care. Indirect costs related to death and productivity loss, as well as disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted were also considered.

Findings

Without Wolbachia, the model projected 1,762,688 reported dengue cases over 20 years. Implementing the Wolbachia method would avert at least 1,295,566 dengue cases, resulting in lower costs and greater effectiveness in all simulated cities. On average, for every 1000 inhabitants followed for 20 years, the Wolbachia method yielded a cost difference of USD 538,233.68 (BRL 2,691,168.40) and averted 5.56 DALYs. Net monetary benefits (NMB) were positive in all seven cities, ranging from USD 110.72 (BRL 553.59) to USD 1399.19 (BRL 6995.95) per inhabitant. Alternative scenarios have also shown a favourable return on investment with a positive benefit-cost ratio (BCR).

Interpretation

Wolbachia is likely a cost-effective strategy in the Brazilian context, consistent with international studies. Sensitivity analysis and alternative scenarios confirmed the robustness of the results.

Funding

This study was funded by the Wellcome Trust under a grant (224459/Z/21/Z).

Occupational exposure to malaria, leishmaniasis and arbovirus vectors in endemic regions: A systematic review

Vector-borne diseases, including dengue, leishmaniasis and malaria, may be more common among individuals whose occupations or behaviours bring them into frequent contact with these disease vectors outside of their homes. A systematic review was conducted to ascertain at-risk occupations and situations that put individuals at increased risk of exposure to these disease vectors in endemic regions and identify the most suitable interventions for each exposure. The review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines on articles published between 1945 and October 2021, searched in 16 online databases. The primary outcome was incidence or prevalence of dengue, leishmaniasis or malaria. The review excluded ecological and qualitative studies, abstracts only, letters, commentaries, reviews, and studies of laboratory-acquired infections. Studies were appraised, data extracted, and a descriptive analysis conducted. Bite interventions for each risk group were assessed. A total of 1170 articles were screened and 99 included. Malaria, leishmaniasis and dengue were presented in 47, 41 and 24 articles, respectively; some articles presented multiple conditions. The most represented populations were soldiers, 38% (43 of 112 studies); refugees and travellers, 15% (17) each; migrant workers, 12.5% (14); miners, 9% (10); farmers, 5% (6); rubber tappers and missionaries, 1.8% (2) each; and forest workers, 0.9% (1). Risk of exposure was categorised into round-the-clock or specific times of day/night dependent on occupation. Exposure to these vectors presents a critical and understudied concern for outdoor workers and mobile populations. When devising interventions to provide round-the-clock vector bite protection, two populations are considered. First, mobile populations, characterized by their high mobility, may find potential benefits in insecticide-treated clothing, though more research and optimization are essential. Treated clothing offers personal vector protection and holds promise for economically disadvantaged individuals, especially when enabling them to self-treat their clothing to repel vectors. Secondly, semi-permanent and permanent settlement populations can receive a combination of interventions that offer both personal and community protection, including spatial repellents, suitable for extended stays. Existing research is heavily biased towards tourism and the military, diverting attention and resources from vulnerable populations where these interventions are most required like refugee populations as well as those residing in sub-Saharan Africa.

Successful introgression of wMel Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti populations in Fiji, Vanuatu and Kiribati

Pacific Island countries have experienced periodic dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks for decades. The prevention and control of these mosquito-borne diseases rely heavily on control of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which in most settings are the primary vector. Introgression of the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia pipientis (wMel strain) into Ae. aegypti populations reduces their vector competence and consequently lowers dengue incidence in the human population. Here we describe successful area-wide deployments of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti in Suva, Lautoka, Nadi (Fiji), Port Vila (Vanuatu) and South Tarawa (Kiribati). With community support, weekly releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes for between 2 to 5 months resulted in wMel introgression in nearly all locations. Long term monitoring confirmed a high, self-sustaining prevalence of wMel infecting mosquitoes in almost all deployment areas. Measurement of public health outcomes were disrupted by the Covid19 pandemic but are expected to emerge in the coming years.

Introduction of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes carrying wAlbB Wolbachia sharply decreases dengue incidence in disease hotspots

Partial replacement of resident Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with introduced mosquitoes carrying certain strains of inherited Wolbachia symbionts can result in transmission blocking of dengue and other viruses of public health importance. Wolbachia strain wAlbB is an effective transmission blocker and stable at high temperatures, making it particularly suitable for hot tropical climates. Following trial field releases in Malaysia, releases using wAlbB Ae. aegypti have become operationalized by the Malaysian health authorities. We report here on an average reduction in dengue fever of 62.4% (confidence intervals 50-71%) in 20 releases sites when compared to 76 control sites in high-rise residential areas. Importantly the level of dengue reduction increased with Wolbachia frequency, with 75.8% reduction (61-87%) estimated at 100% Wolbachia frequency. These findings indicate large impacts of wAlbB Wolbachia invasions on dengue fever incidence in an operational setting, with incidence expected to further decrease as wider areas are invaded.

Reduced dengue incidence following city-wide wMel Wolbachia mosquito releases throughout three Colombian cities: Interrupted time series analysis and a prospective case-control study

BACKGROUND

The introduction of Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Randomised and non-randomised studies in multiple countries have shown significant reductions in dengue incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti. We report the public health outcomes from phased, large-scale releases of wMel-Ae. aegypti mosquitoes throughout three contiguous cities in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Following pilot releases in 2015-2016, staged city-wide wMel-Ae. aegypti deployments were undertaken in the cities of Bello, Medellín and Itagüí (3.3 million people) between October 2016 and April 2022. The impact of the Wolbachia intervention on dengue incidence was evaluated in two parallel studies. A quasi-experimental study using interrupted time series analysis showed notified dengue case incidence was reduced by 95% in Bello and Medellín and 97% in Itagüí, following establishment of wMel at ≥60% prevalence, compared to the pre-intervention period and after adjusting for seasonal trends. A concurrent clinic-based case-control study with a test-negative design was unable to attain the target sample size of 63 enrolled virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) cases between May 2019 and December 2021, consistent with low dengue incidence throughout the Aburrá Valley following wMel deployments. Nevertheless, VCD incidence was 45% lower (OR 0.55 [95% CI 0.25, 1.17]) and combined VCD/presumptive dengue incidence was 47% lower (OR 0.53 [95% CI 0.30, 0.93]) among participants resident in wMel-treated versus untreated neighbourhoods.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Stable introduction of wMel into local Ae. aegypti populations was associated with a significant and sustained reduction in dengue incidence across three Colombian cities. These results from the largest contiguous Wolbachia releases to-date demonstrate the real-world effectiveness of the method across large urban populations and, alongside previously published results, support the reproducibility of this effectiveness across different ecological settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03631719.

Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia

The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.

An economic evaluation of Wolbachia deployments for dengue control in Vietnam

INTRODUCTION

Dengue is a major public health challenge and a growing problem due to climate change. The release of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia is a novel form of vector control against dengue. However, there remains a need to evaluate the benefits of such an intervention at a large scale. In this paper, we evaluate the potential economic impact and cost-effectiveness of scaled Wolbachia deployments as a form of dengue control in Vietnam-targeted at the highest burden urban areas.

METHODS

Ten settings within Vietnam were identified as priority locations for potential future Wolbachia deployments (using a population replacement strategy). The effectiveness of Wolbachia deployments in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue cases was assumed to be 75%. We assumed that the intervention would maintain this effectiveness for at least 20 years (but tested this assumption in the sensitivity analysis). A cost-utility analysis and cost-benefit analysis were conducted.

RESULTS

From the health sector perspective, the Wolbachia intervention was projected to cost US$420 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. From the societal perspective, the overall cost-effectiveness ratio was negative, i.e. the economic benefits outweighed the costs. These results are contingent on the long-term effectiveness of Wolbachia releases being sustained for 20 years. However, the intervention was still classed as cost-effective across the majority of the settings when assuming only 10 years of benefits.

CONCLUSION

Overall, we found that targeting high burden cities with Wolbachia deployments would be a cost-effective intervention in Vietnam and generate notable broader benefits besides health gains.

Wolbachia-based strategies for control of agricultural pests

Wolbachia-based incompatible insect technique (IIT) and pathogen blocking technique (PBT) have been shown to be effective at protecting humans from mosquito-borne diseases in the past decades. Population suppression based on IIT and population replacement based on PBT have become major field application strategies that have continuously been improved by the translational research on Wolbachia-transinfected mosquitoes. Similarly, Wolbachia-based approaches have been proposed for the protection of plants from agricultural pests and their associated diseases. However, a bottleneck in Wolbachia-based strategies for the control of agricultural pests is the need for methods to establish Wolbachia-transinfected insect lines. As a first step in this direction, we compare field control strategies for mosquitos with the potential strategies for agricultural pests based on Wolbachia. Our results show that there is a critical need for establishing productive insect lines and accumulating field test data.

Importance of Wolbachia-mediated biocontrol to reduce dengue in Bangladesh and other dengue-endemic developing countries

Mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue and chikungunya have become global threats, infecting millions of people worldwide, including developing countries of Southeast Asia and Latin America. Bangladesh, like many other developing countries, is experiencing frequent dengue outbreaks. This article, therefore, critically discussed the current status of dengue disease, vector control approaches, and the need for Wolbachia-mediated intervention in Bangladesh and other dengue-endemic developing countries. In this narrative review study, relevant literature was searched from major databases and search engines such as PubMed, BanglaJol, World Health Organization (WHO)/European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and Google Scholar. Considering the selection criteria, our search strategies finally involved 55 related literature for further investigation. Findings showed that current vector control strategies could not render protection for an extended period, and the disease burden of arboviruses is increasing. The impoverished outbreak preparedness, urbanization, climate change, and less efficacy of existing control methods have made people susceptible to vector-borne diseases. Hence, Wolbachia, a naturally occurring endosymbiont of many mosquito species that can potentially limit virus transmission through several host genetic alterations, would be a potential alternative for dengue prevention. We also critically discussed the challenges and prospects of Wolbachia-based dengue control in developing countries. The evidence supporting the efficacy and safety of this intervention and its mechanism have also been elucidated. Empirical evidence suggests that this introgression method could be an eco-friendly and long-lasting dengue control method. This review would help the policymakers and health experts devise a scheme of Wolbachia-based dengue control that can control mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue in Bangladesh and other developing countries.

Wolbachia in Dengue Control: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever outbreaks have been an important public health issue causing high morbidity and mortality, and serious economic effects, particularly in Asia. Control strategies are a challenge to be implemented due to a variety of factors. However, new approaches such as Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti have been shown to successfully lowering the life spans of the mosquito, eggs resistance, and disease transmission capabilities. Field trials are still on-going, and there are data to support its benefit in a large population. This systematic review aims to determine the current progress and impact of using Wolbachia in curbing dengue cases in high dengue case locations worldwide. METHODOLOGY: The study uses the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses review protocol, while the formulation of the research question was based on population of interest, comparison, and outcome. The selected databases include Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, SAGE, and EBSCOhost. A thorough identification, screening, and included process were done and the results retrieved four articles. These articles were then ranked based on quality using mixed methods appraisal tool. RESULTS: A total of four articles were included from 2019 and 2020 reports in both dengue- and non-dengue-endemic settings. In this review, comparisons in terms of the hierarchy of the study design, community engagement and acceptance, Wolbachia-infected A. aegypti deployment, entomological outcome, and epidemiological outcomes were detailed. All four studies showed a decrease in dengue incidence in Wolbachia-intervention populations. CONCLUSION: Wolbachia programs have been shown to be an effective method in combating dengue diseases. Strong community engagement and involvement from multidisciplinary teams are important factors to ensure the effectiveness and good outcomes of the program.

Microsporidia: a promising vector control tool for residual malaria transmission

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) have resulted in a major decrease in malaria transmission. However, it has become apparent that malaria can be effectively transmitted despite high coverage of LLINs/IRS. Residual transmission can occur due to Plasmodium-carrying Anopheles mosquitoes that are insecticide resistant and have feeding and resting behavior that reduces their chance of encountering the currently deployed indoor malaria control tools. Residual malaria transmission is likely to be the most significant hurdle to achieving the goal of malaria eradication and research and development towards new tools and strategies that can control residual malaria transmission is therefore critical. One of the most promising strategies involves biological agents that are part of the mosquito microbiome and influence the ability of Anopheles to transmit Plasmodium. These differ from biological agents previously used for vector control in that their primary effect is on vectoral capacity rather than the longevity and fitness of Anopheles (which may or may not be affected). An example of this type of biological agent is Microsporidia MB, which was identified in field collected Anopheles arabiensis and caused complete inhibition of Plasmodium falciparum transmission without effecting the longevity and fitness of the host. Microsporidia MB belongs to a unique group of rapidly adapting and evolving intracellular parasites and symbionts called microsporidia. In this review we discuss the general biology of microsporidians and the inherent characteristics that make some of them particularly suitable for malaria control. We then discuss the research priorities for developing a transmission blocking strategy for the currently leading microsporidian candidate Microsporidia MB for malaria control.

Preparing an Insectary in Burkina Faso to Support Research in Genetic Technologies for Malaria Control

The Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé (IRSS) of Burkina Faso, West Africa, was the first African institution to import transgenic mosquitoes for research purposes. A shift from the culture of mosquito research to regulated biotechnology research and considerable management capacity is needed to set up and run the first insectary for transgenic insects in a country that applied and adapted the existing biosafety framework, first developed for genetically modified (GM) crops, to this new area of research. The additional demands arise from the separate regulatory framework for biotechnology, referencing the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and the novelty of the research strain, making public understanding and acceptance early in the research pathway important. The IRSS team carried out extensive preparations following recommendations for containment of GM arthropods and invested efforts in local community engagement and training with scientific colleagues throughout the region. Record keeping beyond routine practice was established to maintain evidence related to regulatory requirements and risk assumptions. The National Biosafety Agency of Burkina Faso, Agence Nationale de Biosécurité (ANB), granted the permits for import of the self-limiting transgenic mosquito strain, which took place in November 2016, and for conducting studies in the IRSS facility in Bobo-Dioulasso. Compliance with permit terms and conditions of the permits and study protocols continued until the conclusion of studies, when the transgenic colonies were terminated. All this required close coordination between management and the insectary teams, as well as others. This article outlines the experiences of the IRSS to support others undertaking such studies. The IRSS is contributing to the ongoing development of genetic technologies for malaria control, as a partner of Target Malaria. The ultimate objective of the innovation is to reduce malaria transmission by using GM mosquitoes of the same species released to reduce the disease-vectoring native populations of Anopheles gambiae s.l.

Economic impact of dengue in Singapore from 2010 to 2020 and the cost-effectiveness of Wolbachia interventions

The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is a promising disease intervention strategy that aims to control dengue and other arboviral infections. While early field trials and modelling studies suggest promising epidemiological and entomological outcomes, the overall cost effectiveness of the technology is not well studied in a resource rich setting nor under the suppression approach that aims to suppress the wild-type mosquito population through the release of Wolbachia-infected males. We used economical and epidemiological data from 2010 to 2020 to first ascertain the economic and health costs of dengue in Singapore, a high income nation where dengue is hyper-endemic. The hypothetical cost effectiveness of a national Wolbachia suppression program was then evaluated historically from 2010 to 2020. We estimated that the average economic impact of dengue in Singapore from 2010 to 2020 in constant 2010US$ ranged from $1.014 to $2.265 Billion. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated a disease burden of 7,645-21,262 DALYs from 2010-2020. Under an assumed steady-state running cost of a national Wolbachia suppression program in Singapore, we conservatively estimate that Wolbachia would cost an estimated $50,453-$100,907 per DALYs averted and would lead to an estimated $329.40 Million saved in economic costs over 2010 to 2020 under 40% intervention efficacy. Wolbachia releases in Singapore are expected to be highly cost-effective and its rollout must be prioritised to reduce the onward spread of dengue.

Designing effective Wolbachia release programs for mosquito and arbovirus control

Mosquitoes carrying endosymbiotic bacteria called Wolbachia are being released in mosquito and arbovirus control programs around the world through two main approaches: population suppression and population replacement. Open field releases of Wolbachia-infected male mosquitoes have achieved over 95% population suppression by reducing the fertility of wild mosquito populations. The replacement of populations with Wolbachia-infected females is self-sustaining and can greatly reduce local dengue transmission by reducing the vector competence of mosquito populations. Despite many successful interventions, significant questions and challenges lie ahead. Wolbachia, viruses and their mosquito hosts can evolve, leading to uncertainty around the long-term effectiveness of a given Wolbachia strain, while few ecological impacts of Wolbachia releases have been explored. Wolbachia strains are diverse and the choice of strain to release should be made carefully, taking environmental conditions and the release objective into account. Mosquito quality control, thoughtful community awareness programs and long-term monitoring of populations are essential for all types of Wolbachia intervention. Releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes show great promise, but existing control measures remain an important way to reduce the burden of mosquito-borne disease.

An economic evaluation of implementing a decentralized dengue screening intervention under the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme in Tamil Nadu, South India

Background

Lack of effective early screening is a major obstacle for reducing the fatality rate and disease burden of dengue. In light of this, the government of Tamil Nadu has adopted a decentralized dengue screening strategy at the primary healthcare (PHC) facilities using blood platelet count. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of a decentralized screening strategy for dengue at PHC facilities compared with the current strategy at the tertiary health facility (THC) level.

Methods

Decision tree analysis followed a hypothetical cohort of 1000 suspected dengue cases entering the model. The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed at a 3% discount rate for the proposed and current strategy. The outcomes are expressed in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per quality-adjusted life years gained. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were done to check the uncertainty in the outcome.

Results

The proposed strategy was found to be cost-saving and ICER was estimated to be −41 197. PSA showed that the proposed strategy had a 0.84 probability of being an economically dominant strategy.

Conclusions

The proposed strategy is cost-saving, however, it is recommended to consider optimal population coverage, costs to economic human resources and collateral benefits of equipment.

Efficacy of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquito Deployments for the Control of Dengue

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia pipientis are less susceptible than wild-type A. aegypti to dengue virus infection.

METHODS

We conducted a cluster-randomized trial involving releases of wMel-infected A. aegypti mosquitoes for the control of dengue in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. We randomly assigned 12 geographic clusters to receive deployments of wMel-infected A. aegypti (intervention clusters) and 12 clusters to receive no deployments (control clusters). All clusters practiced local mosquito-control measures as usual. A test-negative design was used to assess the efficacy of the intervention. Patients with acute undifferentiated fever who presented to local primary care clinics and were 3 to 45 years of age were recruited. Laboratory testing was used to identify participants who had virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) and those who were test-negative controls. The primary end point was symptomatic VCD of any severity caused by any dengue virus serotype.

RESULTS

After successful introgression of wMel into the intervention clusters, 8144 participants were enrolled; 3721 lived in intervention clusters, and 4423 lived in control clusters. In the intention-to-treat analysis, VCD occurred in 67 of 2905 participants (2.3%) in the intervention clusters and in 318 of 3401 (9.4%) in the control clusters (aggregate odds ratio for VCD, 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.35; P = 0.004). The protective efficacy of the intervention was 77.1% (95% CI, 65.3 to 84.9) and was similar against the four dengue virus serotypes. The incidence of hospitalization for VCD was lower among participants who lived in intervention clusters (13 of 2905 participants [0.4%]) than among those who lived in control clusters (102 of 3401 [3.0%]) (protective efficacy, 86.2%; 95% CI, 66.2 to 94.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Introgression of wMel into A. aegypti populations was effective in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue and resulted in fewer hospitalizations for dengue among the participants. (Funded by the Tahija Foundation and others; AWED ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03055585; Indonesia Registry number, INA-A7OB6TW.).

Reducing dengue fever cases at the lowest budget: a constrained optimization approach applied to Thailand

Background

With the challenges that dengue fever (DF) presents to healthcare systems and societies, public health officials must determine where best to allocate scarce resources and restricted budgets. Constrained optimization (CO) helps to address some of the acknowledged limitations of conventional health economic analyses and has typically been used to identify the optimal allocation of resources across interventions subject to a variety of constraints.

Methods

A dynamic transmission model was developed to predict the number of dengue cases in Thailand at steady state. A CO was then applied to identify the optimal combination of interventions (release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes and paediatric vaccination) within the constraints of a fixed budget, set no higher than cost estimates of the current vector control programme, to minimize the number of dengue cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Epidemiological, cost, and effectiveness data were informed by national data and the research literature. The time horizon was 10 years. Scenario analyses examined different disease management and intervention costs, budget constraints, vaccine efficacy, and optimization time horizon.

Results

Under base-case budget constraints, the optimal coverage of the two interventions to minimize dengue incidence was predicted to be nearly equal (Wolbachia 50%; paediatric vaccination 49%) with corresponding coverages under lower bound (Wolbachia 54%; paediatric vaccination 10%) and upper bound (Wolbachia 67%; paediatric vaccination 100%) budget ceilings. Scenario analyses indicated that the most impactful situations related to the costs of Wolbachia and paediatric vaccination with decreases/ increases in costs of interventions demonstrating a direct correlation with coverage (increases/ decreases) of the respective control strategies under examination.

Conclusions

Determining the best investment strategy for dengue control requires the identification of the optimal mix of interventions to implement in order to maximize public health outcomes, often under fixed budget constraints. A CO model was developed with the objective of minimizing dengue cases (and DALYs lost) over a 10-year time horizon, within the constraints of the estimated budgets for vector control in the absence of vaccination and Wolbachia. The model provides a tool for developing estimates of optimal coverage of combined dengue control strategies that minimize dengue burden at the lowest budget.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10747-3.

Vaccines for neglected, emerging and re-emerging diseases

Efforts to produce vaccines against SARS and MERS were prematurely halted since their scope was perceived to be geographically restricted and they were subsequently categorized as neglected diseases. However, when a similar virus spread globally triggering the COVID-19 pandemic, we were harshly reminded that several other neglected diseases might also be waiting for the perfect opportunity to become mainstream. As climate change drives urbanization, natural selection of pathogens and their intermediate vectors and reservoirs, the risk of neglected diseases emerging within a larger susceptible pool becomes an even greater threat. Availability of a vaccine for COVID-19 is widely considered the only way to end this pandemic. Similarly, vaccines are also seen as the best tools available to control the spread of neglected (sometimes referred to as emerging or re-emerging) diseases, until the water, hygiene and sanitation infrastructure is improved in areas of their prevalence. Vaccine production is usually cost and labour intensive and thus minimal funding is directed towards controlling and eliminating neglected diseases (NDs). A customised but sustainable approach is needed to develop and deploy vaccines against NDs. While safety, efficacy and public trust are the three main success pillars for most vaccines, affordability is vital when formulating vaccines for neglected diseases.