Ecological modeling from time-series inference: insight into dynamics and stability of intestinal microbiota

Unravelling microbial interactions in a synthetic broad bean paste microbial community

The biotic factors governing the assembly and functionality of broad bean paste microbiota remain largely unexplored due to its highly complex fermentation ecosystem. This study constructed a synthetic community comprising Zygosaccharomyces rouxii, Staphylococcus carnosus, Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus amyloliquefaciens, Tetragenococcus halophilus and Weissella confusa, representing key microorganisms involved in broad bean paste fermentation. The generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) model revealed that the microbial interaction network among the six species was dominated by pairwise interactions. The abundances of most species in the multi-species communities at 2 and 4 days were accurately predicted using the gLV model, based on pairwise species combinations outcomes. Among pairwise interactions, negative interactions (57 %) were significantly more prevalent than positive interactions (37 %), with the former generally being stronger. Subsequent investigations demonstrated that the tested Z. rouxii inhibited acid accumulation by acid-producing bacteria, while the two strains belonging to the genus Bacillus stimulated lactic acid bacteria growth and lactic acid accumulation. The sequential inoculation strategy, informed by the interaction network, enhanced the synthetic community's bioaugmentation in broad bean paste, significantly improving ester and mellow flavors, reducing unpleasant odors, and increasing volatile flavor substances to 9.43 times that of natural fermentation. Overall, this study revealed the interaction network of six key microorganisms in broad bean paste using the gLV model and guided the application of the synthetic community in its fermentation, significantly enhancing flavor quality.

Methodology for microbiome data analysis: An overview

It is known that microbiome and health are related, in addition, recent research has found that microbiome has potential clinical uses. These facts highlight the importance of the microbiome in actual science. However, microbiome data has some characteristics that makes its statistical study challenging. In recent years, longitudinal and non-longitudinal methods have been designed to analyze the microbiota and knowing more about the bacterial behavior. In this article in the form of a review we summarize the characteristics of microbiome data and the statistical methods most widespread to analyze it. We have taken into account if the strategies are longitudinal or not. We also classify the methods based on their specific analytical objectives and based on their mathematical characteristics. The methods are structured according to their biological goals and mathematical features, ensuring that the insights provided are both relevant and accessible to professionals in biology and statistics. We present this review as a reference for the most widely used methods in microbiome data analysis and as a foundation for identifying potential areas for future research. We want to point out that this review can be particularly useful to remark the importance of the methodology designed in order to study microbiome longitudinal datasets.

Inference of Pairwise Interactions from Strain Frequency Data Across Settings and Context-Dependent Mutual Invasibilities

We propose a method to estimate pairwise strain interactions from population-level frequencies across different endemic settings. We apply the framework of replicator dynamics, derived from a multi-strain SIS model with co-colonization, to extract from 5 datasets the fundamental backbone of strain interactions. In our replicator, each pairwise invasion fitness explicitly arises from local environmental context and trait variations between strains. We adopt the simplest formulation for multi-strain coexistence, where context is encoded in basic reproduction number R 0 and mean global susceptibility to co-colonization k, and trait variations α ij capture pairwise deviations from k. We integrate Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype frequencies and serotype identities collected from 5 environments: epidemiological surveys in Denmark, Nepal, Iran, Brazil and Mozambique, and mechanistically link their distributions. Our results have twofold implications. First, we offer a new proof-of-concept in the inference of multi-species interactions based on cross-sectional data. We also discuss 2 key aspects of the method: the site ordering for sequential fitting, and stability constraints on the dynamics. Secondly, we effectively estimate at high-resolution more than 70% of the 92 × 92 pneumococcus serotype interaction matrix in co-colonization, allowing for further projections and hypotheses testing. We show that, in these bacteria, both within- and between- serotype interaction coefficients' distribution emerge to be unimodal, their difference in mean broadly reflecting stability assumptions on serotype coexistence. This framework enables further model calibration to global data: cross-sectional across sites, or longitudinal in one site over time, - and should allow a more robust and integrated investigation of intervention effects in such biodiverse ecosystems.

[18F]flutemetamol uptake in the colon of a memory clinic population and its association with brain amyloidosis and the gut microbiota profile: an exploratory study

PURPOSE

Some Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients report gastro-intestinal symptoms and present alterations in the gut microbiota (GM) composition. Elevated colonic amyloid immunoreactivity has been shown in patients and animal models. We evaluated the colonic uptake of the amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) imaging agent [18F]flutemetamol (FMM) in a memory clinic population and investigated its association with brain amyloidosis and GM composition.

METHODS

Forty-five participants underwent (i) abdominal and cerebral FMM PET, acquired at 40 (early phase) and 120 min (late phase) after tracer injection, (ii) abdominal computed tomography, and (iii) cerebral T1-weighted MRI. Colonic standardized uptake value ratio (SUVr) was determined through manual tracing and automatic segmentation (TotalSegmentator), using the aortic blood signal as a reference region. Fecal GM composition was assessed using 16 S rRNA sequencing. Amyloid positive (A+) and negative (A-) participants, based on cortical FMM quantification (PetSurfer), were compared in terms of SUVr and GM features.

RESULTS

Increased colonic early SUVr was reported in A+ than A- (manual, p =.008; automated, p =.035). Altered GM composition was found in A + as shown by lower Pielou's evenness (p =.023), lower abundance of Eubacterium hallii group, and higher abundance of several genera. High UC5-1-2E3 abundance positively correlated with high colonic early SUVr (whole group: manual, p =.012, automated, p =.082; A+: manual, p =.074; automated, p =.016).

CONCLUSION

This exploratory study showed that subjects with cerebral amyloidosis have greater colonic FMM uptake than subjects with normal cerebral amyloid load, correlating with altered GM composition. Further analysis is needed to determine if these changes denote amyloid-related changes or other phenomena.

Directing microbial co-culture composition using cybernetic control

We demonstrate a cybernetic approach to control the composition of a P. putida and E. coli co-culture that does not rely on genetic engineering to interface cells with computers. We first show how composition information can be extracted from different bioreactor measurements and then combined with a system model using an extended Kalman filter to generate accurate estimates of a noisy system. We then demonstrate that adjusting the culture temperature can drive the composition due to the species' different optimal temperatures. Using a proportional-integral control algorithm, we are able to track dynamic references with real-time noise rejection and independence from starting conditions such as inoculation ratio. We stabilize the co-culture for 7 days (∼250 generations) with the experiment ending before the cells could adapt out of the control. This cybernetic framework is broadly applicable, with different microbes' unique characteristics enabling robust control over diverse co-cultures.

Annual cycle variations in the gut microbiota of migratory black-necked cranes

Introduction

Migratory birds exhibit unique annual cycles that complicate their gut microbiota. However, the annual dynamics of gut microbiota in migratory birds remain unclear, hindering our understanding of their environmental adaptation.

Methods

Here, we collected fecal samples from black-necked cranes (Grus nigricollis) across four seasons at their breeding grounds and used wintering ground data from databases to characterize their gut microbial compositions throughout the year.

Results and discussion

The results showed that the gut microbiota was clustered by season (Bray-Curtis: R 2 = 0.348, p < 0.001; UniFrac: R 2 = 0.352, p < 0.001). And the summer samples exhibited higher alpha (Simpson and Shannon), beta diversity (Bray-Curtis and UniFrac) and more diverse functions in gut microbiota compared to other seasons. Furthermore, in summer, the gut microbiota exhibited several balanced relative abundances at the family level, whereas Lactobacillaceae family dominated during the other seasons. Thirty-six ASVs were identified by random forest analysis to distinguish samples from distinct seasons. Despite having greater diversity, the summer gut microbiota had a simpler network structure than the other seasons (fewer edges and nodes). The dispersal limitation during random processes also significantly influenced gut microbial community assembly. Overall, the gut microbiota of the black-necked crane undergoes dynamic adjustments to adapt to seasonal environmental changes, which may be associated with the variations in diet across seasons. These results enhance our understanding of the gut microbiota of wild migratory birds and support further research on black-necked cranes.

An in silico framework for the rational design of vaginal probiotic therapy

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is a common condition characterized by a shift in vaginal microbiome composition that is linked to negative reproductive outcomes and increased susceptibility to sexually transmitted infections. Despite the commonality of BV, standard-of-care antibiotics provide limited control of recurrent BV episodes and development of new biotherapies is limited by the lack of controlled models needed to evaluate new dosing and treatment regimens. Here, we develop an in silico framework to evaluate selection criteria for potential probiotic strains, test adjunctive therapy with antibiotics, and alternative dosing strategies. This computational framework highlighted the importance of resident microbial species on the efficacy of hypothetical probiotic strains, identifying specific interaction parameters between resident non-optimal anaerobic bacteria (nAB) and Lactobacillus spp. with candidate probiotic strains as a necessary selection criterion. Model predictions were able to replicate results from a recent phase 2b clinical trial for the live biotherapeutic product, Lactin-V, demonstrating the relevance of the in silico platform. Results from the computational model support that the probiotic strain in Lactin-V requires adjunctive antibiotic therapy to be effective, and that increasing the dosing frequency of the probiotic could have a moderate impact on BV recurrence at 12 and 24 weeks. Altogether, this framework could provide evidence for the rational selection of probiotic strains and help optimize dosing frequency or adjunctive therapies.

The architecture of theory and data in microbiome design: towards an S-matrix for microbiomes

Designing microbiomes for applications in health, bioengineering, and sustainability is intrinsically linked to a fundamental theoretical understanding of the rules governing microbial community assembly. Microbial ecologists have used a range of mathematical models to understand, predict, and control microbiomes, ranging from mechanistic models, putting microbial populations and their interactions as the focus, to purely statistical approaches, searching for patterns in empirical and experimental data. We review the success and limitations of these modeling approaches when designing novel microbiomes, especially when guided by (inevitably) incomplete experimental data. Although successful at predicting generic patterns of community assembly, mechanistic and phenomenological models tend to fall short of the precision needed to design and implement specific functionality in a microbiome. We argue that to effectively design microbiomes with optimal functions in diverse environments, ecologists should combine data-driven techniques with mechanistic models - a middle, third way for using theory to inform design.

Inferring resource competition in microbial communities from time series

The competition for resources is a defining feature of microbial communities. In many contexts, from soils to host-associated communities, highly diverse microbes are organized into metabolic groups or guilds with similar resource preferences. The resource preferences of individual taxa that give rise to these guilds are critical for understanding fluxes of resources through the community and the structure of diversity in the system. However, inferring the metabolic capabilities of individual taxa, and their competition with other taxa, within a community is challenging and unresolved. Here we address this gap in knowledge by leveraging dynamic measurements of abundances in communities. We show that simple correlations are often misleading in predicting resource competition. We show that spectral methods such as the cross-power spectral density (CPSD) and coherence that account for time-delayed effects are superior metrics for inferring the structure of resource competition in communities. We first demonstrate this fact on synthetic data generated from consumer-resource models with time-dependent resource availability, where taxa are organized into groups or guilds with similar resource preferences. By applying spectral methods to oceanic plankton time-series data, we demonstrate that these methods detect interaction structures among species with similar genomic sequences. Our results indicate that analyzing temporal data across multiple timescales can reveal the underlying structure of resource competition within communities.

Optimal control of agent-based models via surrogate modeling

This paper describes and validates an algorithm to solve optimal control problems for agent-based models (ABMs). For a given ABM and a given optimal control problem, the algorithm derives a surrogate model, typically lower-dimensional, in the form of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), solves the control problem for the surrogate model, and then transfers the solution back to the original ABM. It applies to quite general ABMs and offers several options for the ODE structure, depending on what information about the ABM is to be used. There is a broad range of applications for such an algorithm, since ABMs are used widely in the life sciences, such as ecology, epidemiology, and biomedicine and healthcare, areas where optimal control is an important purpose for modeling, such as for medical digital twin technology.

Novel class IIb microcins show activity against Gram-negative ESKAPE and plant pathogens

Interspecies interactions involving direct competition via bacteriocin production play a vital role in shaping ecological dynamics within microbial ecosystems. For instance, the ribosomally produced siderophore bacteriocins, known as class IIb microcins, affect the colonization of host-associated pathogenic Enterobacteriaceae species. Notably, to date, only five of these antimicrobials have been identified, all derived from specific Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae strains. We hypothesized that class IIb microcin production extends beyond these specific compounds and organisms. With a customized informatics-driven approach, screening bacterial genomes in public databases with BLAST and manual curation, we have discovered 12 previously unknown class IIb microcins in seven additional Enterobacteriaceae species, encompassing phytopathogens and environmental isolates. We introduce three novel clades of microcins (MccW, MccX, and MccZ), while also identifying eight new variants of the five known class IIb microcins. To validate their antimicrobial potential, we heterologously expressed these microcins in E. coli and demonstrated efficacy against a variety of bacterial isolates, including plant pathogens from the genera Brenneria, Gibbsiella, and Rahnella. Two newly discovered microcins exhibit activity against Gram-negative ESKAPE pathogens, i.e., Acinetobacter baumannii or Pseudomonas aeruginosa, providing the first evidence that class IIb microcins can target bacteria outside of the Enterobacteriaceae family. This study underscores that class IIb microcin genes are more prevalent in the microbial world than previously recognized and that synthetic hybrid microcins can be a viable tool to target clinically relevant drug-resistant pathogens. Our findings hold significant promise for the development of innovative engineered live biotherapeutic products tailored to combat these resilient bacteria.

An ecological and stochastic perspective on persisters resuscitation

Resistance, tolerance, and persistence to antibiotics have mainly been studied at the level of a single microbial isolate. However, in recent years it has become evident that microbial interactions play a role in determining the success of antibiotic treatments, in particular by influencing the occurrence of persistence and tolerance within a population. Additionally, the challenge of resuscitation (the capability of a population to revive after antibiotic exposure) and pathogen clearance are strongly linked to the small size of the surviving population and to the presence of fluctuations in cell counts. Indeed, while large population dynamics can be considered deterministic, small populations are influenced by stochastic processes, making their behaviour less predictable. Our study argues that microbe-microbe interactions within a community affect the mode, tempo, and success of persister resuscitation and that these are further influenced by noise. To this aim, we developed a theoretical model of a three-member microbial community and analysed the role of cell-to-cell interactions on pathogen clearance, using both deterministic and stochastic simulations. Our findings highlight the importance of ecological interactions and population size fluctuations (and hence the underlying cellular mechanisms) in determining the resilience of microbial populations following antibiotic treatment.

Co-evolution and Gene Transfers Drive Speciation Patterns in Host-Associated Bacteria

Microbial communities that maintain symbiotic relationships with animals evolve by adapting to the specific environmental niche provided by their host, yet understanding their patterns of speciation remains challenging. Whether bacterial speciation occurs primarily through allopatric or sympatric processes remains an open question. In addition, patterns of DNA transfers, which are pervasive in bacteria, are more constrained in a closed host-gut system. Eusocial bees have co-evolved with their specialized microbiota for over 85 million years, constituting a simple and valuable system to study the complex dynamics of host-associated microbial interactions. Here, we studied the patterns of speciation and evolution of seven specialized gut bacteria from three clades of eusocial bee species: western honey bees, eastern honey bees, and bumblebees. We conducted genomic analyses to infer species delineation relative to the patterns of homologous recombination (HR), and horizontal gene transfer (HGT). The studied bacteria presented various modes of evolution and speciation relative to their hosts, but some trends were consistent across all of them. We observed a clear interruption of HR between bacteria inhabiting different bee hosts, which is consistent with a mechanism of allopatric speciation, but we also identified interruptions of HR within hosts, suggesting recent or ongoing sympatric speciation. In contrast to HR, we observed that HGT events were not constrained by species borders. Overall, our findings show that in host-associated bacterial populations, patterns of HR and HGT have different impacts on speciation patterns, which are driven by both allopatric and sympatric speciation processes.

Connecting the ruminant microbiome to climate change: insights from current ecological and evolutionary concepts

Ruminant livestock provide meat, milk, wool, and other products required for human subsistence. Within the digestive tract of ruminant animals, the rumen houses a complex and diverse microbial ecosystem. These microbes generate many of the nutrients that are needed by the host animal for maintenance and production. However, enteric methane (CH4) is also produced during the final stage of anaerobic digestion. Growing public concern for global climate change has driven the agriculture sector to enhance its investigation into CH4 mitigation. Many CH4 mitigation methods have been explored, with varying outcomes. With the advent of new sequencing technologies, the host-microbe interactions that mediate fermentation processes have been examined to enhance ruminant enteric CH4 mitigation strategies. In this review, we describe current knowledge of the factors driving ruminant microbial assembly, how this relates to functionality, and how CH4 mitigation approaches influence ecological and evolutionary gradients. Through the current literature, we elucidated that many ecological and evolutionary properties are working in tandem in the assembly of ruminant microbes and in the functionality of these microbes in methanogenesis. Additionally, we provide a conceptual framework for future research wherein ecological and evolutionary dynamics account for CH4 mitigation in ruminant microbial composition. Thus, preparation of future research should incorporate this framework to address the roles ecology and evolution have in anthropogenic climate change.

Evolutionary shift of a tipping point can precipitate, or forestall, collapse in a microbial community

Global ecosystems are rapidly approaching tipping points, where minute shifts can lead to drastic ecological changes. Theory predicts that evolution can shape a system's tipping point behaviour, but direct experimental support is lacking. Here we investigate the power of evolutionary processes to alter these critical thresholds and protect an ecological community from collapse. To do this, we propagate a two-species microbial system composed of Escherichia coli and baker's yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, for over 4,000 generations, and map ecological stability before and after coevolution. Our results reveal that tipping points-and other geometric properties of ecological communities-can evolve to alter the range of conditions under which our microbial community can flourish. We develop a mathematical model to illustrate how evolutionary changes in parameters such as growth rate, carrying capacity and resistance to environmental change affect ecological resilience. Our study shows that adaptation of key species can shift an ecological community's tipping point, potentially promoting ecological stability or accelerating collapse.

Inferring strain-level mutational drivers of phage-bacteria interaction phenotypes arising during coevolutionary dynamics

The enormous diversity of bacteriophages and their bacterial hosts presents a significant challenge to predict which phages infect a focal set of bacteria. Infection is largely determined by complementary-and largely uncharacterized-genetics of adsorption, injection, cell take-over, and lysis. Here we present a machine learning approach to predict phage-bacteria interactions trained on genome sequences of and phenotypic interactions among 51 Escherichia coli strains and 45 phage λ strains that coevolved in laboratory conditions for 37 days. Leveraging multiple inference strategies and without a priori knowledge of driver mutations, this framework predicts both who infects whom and the quantitative levels of infections across a suite of 2,295 potential interactions. We found that the most effective approach inferred interaction phenotypes from independent contributions from phage and bacteria mutations, accurately predicting 86% of interactions while reducing the relative error in the estimated strength of the infection phenotype by 40%. Feature selection revealed key phage λ and Escherchia coli mutations that have a significant influence on the outcome of phage-bacteria interactions, corroborating sites previously known to affect phage λ infections, as well as identifying mutations in genes of unknown function not previously shown to influence bacterial resistance. The method's success in recapitulating strain-level infection outcomes arising during coevolutionary dynamics may also help inform generalized approaches for imputing genetic drivers of interaction phenotypes in complex communities of phage and bacteria.

Inferring strain-level mutational drivers of phage-bacteria interaction phenotypes arising during coevolutionary dynamics

The enormous diversity of bacteriophages and their bacterial hosts presents a significant challenge to predict which phages infect a focal set of bacteria. Infection is largely determined by complementary - and largely uncharacterized - genetics of adsorption, injection, cell take-over and lysis. Here we present a machine learning approach to predict phage-bacteria interactions trained on genome sequences of and phenotypic interactions amongst 51 Escherichia coli strains and 45 phage λ strains that coevolved in laboratory conditions for 37 days. Leveraging multiple inference strategies and without a priori knowledge of driver mutations, this framework predicts both who infects whom and the quantitative levels of infections across a suite of 2,295 potential interactions. We found that the most effective approach inferred interaction phenotypes from independent contributions from phage and bacteria mutations, accurately predicting 86 % of interactions while reducing the relative error in the estimated strength of the infection phenotype by 40 % . Feature selection revealed key phage λ and E. coli mutations that have a significant influence on the outcome of phage-bacteria interactions, corroborating sites previously known to affect phage λ infections, as well as identifying mutations in genes of unknown function not previously shown to influence bacterial resistance. The method's success in recapitulating strain-level infection outcomes arising during coevolutionary dynamics may also help inform generalized approaches for imputing genetic drivers of interaction phenotypes in complex communities of phage and bacteria.

Game-Theoretic Flux Balance Analysis Model for Predicting Stable Community Composition

Models for microbial interactions attempt to understand and predict the steady state network of inter-species relationships in a community, e.g. competition for shared metabolites, and cooperation through cross-feeding. Flux balance analysis (FBA) is an approach that was introduced to model the interaction of a particular microbial species with its environment. This approach has been extended to analyzing interactions in a community of microbes; however, these approaches have two important drawbacks: first, one has to numerically solve a differential equation to identify the steady state, and second, there are no methods available to analyze the stability of the steady state. We propose a game theory based community FBA model wherein species compete to maximize their individual growth rate, and the state of the community is given by the resulting Nash equilibrium. We develop a computationally efficient method for directly computing the steady state biomasses and fluxes without solving a differential equation. We also develop a method to determine the stability of a steady state to perturbations in the biomasses and to invasion by new species. We report the results of applying our proposed framework to a small community of four E. coli mutants that compete for externally supplied glucose, as well as cooperate since the mutants are auxotrophic for metabolites exported by other mutants, and a more realistic model for a gut microbiome consisting of nine species.

Stochastic models allow improved inference of microbiome interactions from time series data

How can we figure out how the different microbes interact within microbiomes? To combine theoretical models and experimental data, we often fit a deterministic model for the mean dynamics of a system to averaged data. However, in the averaging procedure a lot of information from the data is lost-and a deterministic model may be a poor representation of a stochastic reality. Here, we develop an inference method for microbiomes based on the idea that both the experiment and the model are stochastic. Starting from a stochastic model, we derive dynamical equations not only for the average, but also for higher statistical moments of the microbial abundances. We use these equations to infer distributions of the interaction parameters that best describe the biological experimental data-improving identifiability and precision. The inferred distributions allow us to make predictions but also to distinguish between fairly certain parameters and those for which the available experimental data does not give sufficient information. Compared to related approaches, we derive expressions that also work for the relative abundance of microbes, enabling us to use conventional metagenome data, and account for cases where not a single host, but only replicate hosts, can be tracked over time.

Unfolding and de-confounding: biologically meaningful causal inference from longitudinal multi-omic networks using METALICA

A key challenge in the analysis of microbiome data is the integration of multi-omic datasets and the discovery of interactions between microbial taxa, their expressed genes, and the metabolites they consume and/or produce. In an effort to improve the state of the art in inferring biologically meaningful multi-omic interactions, we sought to address some of the most fundamental issues in causal inference from longitudinal multi-omics microbiome data sets. We developed METALICA, a suite of tools and techniques that can infer interactions between microbiome entities. METALICA introduces novel unrolling and de-confounding techniques used to uncover multi-omic entities that are believed to act as confounders for some of the relationships that may be inferred using standard causal inferencing tools. The results lend support to predictions about biological models and processes by which microbial taxa interact with each other in a microbiome. The unrolling process helps identify putative intermediaries (genes and/or metabolites) to explain the interactions between microbes; the de-confounding process identifies putative common causes that may lead to spurious relationships to be inferred. METALICA was applied to the networks inferred by existing causal discovery, and network inference algorithms were applied to a multi-omics data set resulting from a longitudinal study of IBD microbiomes. The most significant unrollings and de-confoundings were manually validated using the existing literature and databases.

IMPORTANCE

We have developed a suite of tools and techniques capable of inferring interactions between microbiome entities. METALICA introduces novel techniques called unrolling and de-confounding that are employed to uncover multi-omic entities considered to be confounders for some of the relationships that may be inferred using standard causal inferencing tools. To evaluate our method, we conducted tests on the inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) dataset from the iHMP longitudinal study, which we pre-processed in accordance with our previous work. From this dataset, we generated various subsets, encompassing different combinations of metagenomics, metabolomics, and metatranscriptomics datasets. Using these multi-omics datasets, we demonstrate how the unrolling process aids in the identification of putative intermediaries (genes and/or metabolites) to explain the interactions between microbes. Additionally, the de-confounding process identifies potential common causes that may give rise to spurious relationships to be inferred. The most significant unrollings and de-confoundings were manually validated using the existing literature and databases.

Microbiome time series data reveal predictable patterns of change

The human gut microbiome is crucial in health and disease. Longitudinal studies are becoming increasingly important compared to traditional cross-sectional approaches, as precision medicine and individualized interventions are coming to the forefront. Investigating the temporal dynamics of the microbiome is essential for comprehending its function and impact on health. This knowledge has implications for targeted therapeutic strategies, such as personalized diets or probiotic therapy. In this study, we focused on developing and implementing methods specifically designed for analyzing gut microbiome time series. Our statistical framework provides researchers with tools to examine the temporal behavior of the gut microbiome. Key features of our framework include statistical tests for time series properties, predictive modeling, classification of bacterial species based on stability and noise, and clustering analyses to identify groups of bacteria with similar temporal patterns. We analyzed dense amplicon sequencing time series from four generally healthy subjects. Using our developed statistical framework, we analyzed both the overall community dynamics and the behavior of individual bacterial species. We showed six longitudinal regimes within the gut microbiome and discussed their features. Additionally, we explored whether specific bacterial clusters undergo similar fluctuations, suggesting potential functional relationships and interactions within the microbiome. Our development of specialized methods for analyzing human gut microbiome time series significantly enhances the understanding of its dynamic nature and implications for human health. The guidelines and tools provided by our framework support scientists in studying the complex dynamics of the gut microbiome, fostering further research and advancements in microbiome analysis. The gut microbiome is integral to human health, influencing various diseases. Longitudinal studies offer deeper insights into its temporal dynamics compared to cross-sectional approaches. In this study, we developed a statistical framework for analyzing the time series of the human gut microbiome. This framework provides robust tools for examining microbial community dynamics over time. It includes statistical tests for time series properties, predictive modeling, classification of bacterial species based on stability and noise, and clustering analyses. Our approach significantly enhances the methodologies available to researchers, promoting further exploration and innovation in microbiome analysis.

IMPORTANCE

This project developed innovative methods to analyze gut microbiome time series data, offering fresh insights into its dynamic nature. Unlike many studies that focus on static snapshots, we found that the healthy gut microbiome is predictably stable over time, with only a small subset of bacteria showing significant changes. By identifying groups of bacteria with diverse temporal behaviors and clusters that change together, we pave the way for more effective probiotic therapies and dietary interventions, addressing the overlooked dynamic aspects of gut microbiome changes.

Predicting and Prioritising Community Assembly: Learning Outcomes via Experiments

Community assembly provides the foundation for applications in biodiversity conservation, climate change, invasion, restoration and synthetic ecology. However, predicting and prioritising assembly outcomes remains difficult. We address this challenge via a mechanism-free approach useful when little data or knowledge exist (LOVE; Learning Outcomes Via Experiments). We carry out assembly experiments ('actions', here, random combinations of species additions) potentially in multiple environments, wait, and measure abundance outcomes. We then train a model to predict outcomes of novel actions or prioritise actions that would yield the most desirable outcomes. Across 10 single- and multi-environment datasets, when trained on 89 randomly selected actions, LOVE predicts outcomes with 0.5%-3.4% mean error, and prioritises actions for maximising richness, maximising abundance, or removing unwanted species, with 94%-99% mean true positive rate and 10%-84% mean true negative rate across tasks. LOVE complements existing mechanism-first approaches for community ecology and may help address numerous applied challenges.

mbDriver: identifying driver microbes in microbial communities based on time-series microbiome data

Alterations in human microbial communities are intricately linked to the onset and progression of diseases. Identifying the key microbes driving these community changes is crucial, as they may serve as valuable biomarkers for disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. However, there remains a need for further research to develop effective methods for addressing this critical task. This is primarily because defining the driver microbe requires consideration not only of each microbe's individual contributions but also their interactions. This paper introduces a novel framework, called mbDriver, for identifying driver microbes based on microbiome abundance data collected at discrete time points. mbDriver comprises three main components: (i) data preprocessing of time-series abundance data using smoothing splines based on the negative binomial distribution, (ii) parameter estimation for the generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) model using regularized least squares, and (iii) quantification of each microbe's contribution to the community's steady state by manipulating the causal graph implied by gLV equations. The performance of nonparametric spline-based denoising and regularized least squares estimation is comprehensively evaluated on simulated datasets, demonstrating superiority over existing methods. Furthermore, the practical applicability and effectiveness of mbDriver are showcased using a dietary fiber intervention dataset and an ulcerative colitis dataset. Notably, driver microbes identified in the dietary fiber intervention dataset exhibit significant effects on the abundances of short-chain fatty acids, while those identified in the ulcerative colitis dataset show a significant correlation with metabolism-related pathways.

Interpolation of microbiome composition in longitudinal data sets

The human gut microbiome significantly impacts health, prompting a rise in longitudinal studies that capture microbiome samples at multiple time points. Such studies allow researchers to characterize microbiome changes over time, but importantly, also present major analytical challenges due to incomplete or irregular sampling. To address this challenge, longitudinal microbiome studies often employ various interpolation methods, aiming to infer missing microbiome data. However, to date, a comprehensive assessment of such microbiome interpolation techniques, as well as best practice guidelines for interpolating microbiome data, is still lacking. This work aims to fill this gap, rigorously implementing and systematically evaluating a large array of interpolation methods, spanning several different categories, for longitudinal microbiome interpolation. To assess each method and its ability to accurately infer microbiome composition at missing time points, we used three longitudinal microbiome data sets that follow individuals over a long period of time and a leave-one-out approach. Overall, our analysis demonstrated that the K-nearest neighbors algorithm consistently outperforms other methods in interpolation accuracy, yet, accuracy varied widely across data sets, individuals, and time. Factors such as microbiome stability, sample size, and the time gap between interpolated and adjacent samples significantly influenced accuracy, allowing us to develop a model for predicting the expected interpolation accuracy at a missing time point. Our findings, combined, suggest that accurate interpolation in longitudinal microbiome data is feasible, especially in dense cohorts. Furthermore, using our predictive model, future studies can interpolate data only in time points where the expected interpolation accuracy is high.

IMPORTANCE

Since missing samples are common in longitudinal microbiome dataset due to inconsistent collection practices, it is important to evaluate and benchmark different interpolation methods for predicting microbiome composition in such samples and facilitate downstream analysis. Our study rigorously evaluated several such methods and identified the K-nearest neighbors approach as particularly effective for this task. The study also notes significant variability in interpolation accuracy among individuals, influenced by factors such as age, sample size, and sampling frequency. Furthermore, we developed a predictive model for estimating interpolation accuracy at a specific time point, enhancing the reliability of such analyses in future studies. Combined, our study, thus, provides critical insights and tools that enhance the accuracy and reliability of data interpolation methods in the growing field of longitudinal microbiome research.

Expanding the toolbox: Novel class IIb microcins show activity against Gram-negative ESKAPE and plant pathogens

Interspecies interactions involving direct competition via bacteriocin production play a vital role in shaping ecological dynamics within microbial ecosystems. For instance, the ribosomally-produced siderophore bacteriocins, known as class IIb microcins, affect the colonization of host-associated pathogenic Enterobacteriaceae species. Notably, to date, only five of these antimicrobials have been identified, all derived from specific Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae strains. We hypothesized that class IIb microcin production extends beyond these specific compounds and organisms. With a customized informatics-driven approach, screening bacterial genomes in public databases with BLAST and manual curation, we have discovered twelve previously unknown class IIb microcins in seven additional Enterobacteriaceae species, encompassing phytopathogens and environmental isolates. We introduce three novel clades of microcins (MccW, MccX, and MccZ), while also identifying eight new variants of the five known class IIb microcins. To validate their antimicrobial potential, we heterologously expressed these microcins in E. coli and demonstrated efficacy against a variety of bacterial isolates, including plant pathogens from the genera Brenneria, Gibbsiella, and Rahnella . Two newly discovered microcins exhibit activity against Gram-negative ESKAPE pathogens, i.e. Acinetobacter baumannii or Pseudomonas aeruginosa , providing the first evidence that class IIb microcins can target bacteria outside of the Enterobacteriaceae family. This study underscores that class IIb microcin genes are more prevalent in the microbial world than previously recognized and that synthetic hybrid microcins can be a viable tool to target clinically relevant drug-resistant pathogens. Our findings hold significant promise for the development of innovative engineered live biotherapeutic products tailored to combat these resilient bacteria.

Host control and species interactions jointly determine microbiome community structure

The host microbiome can be considered an ecological community of microbes present inside a complex and dynamic host environment. The host is under selective pressure to ensure that its microbiome remains beneficial. The host can impose a range of ecological filters including the immune response that can influence the assembly and composition of the microbial community. How the host immune response interacts with the within-microbiome community dynamics to affect the assembly of the microbiome has been largely unexplored. We present here a mathematical framework to elucidate the role of host immune response and its interaction with the balance of ecological interactions types within the microbiome community. We find that highly mutualistic microbial communities characteristic of high community density are most susceptible to changes in immune control and become invasion prone as host immune control strength is increased. Whereas highly competitive communities remain relatively stable in resisting invasion to changing host immune control. Our model reveals that the host immune control can interact in unexpected ways with a microbial community depending on the prevalent ecological interactions types for that community. We stress the need to incorporate the role of host-control mechanisms to better understand microbiome community assembly and stability.

Symbioses between fungi and bacteria: from mechanisms to impacts on biodiversity

Symbiotic interactions between fungi and bacteria range from positive to negative. They are ubiquitous in free-living as well as host-associated microbial communities worldwide. Yet, the impact of fungal-bacterial symbioses on the organization and dynamics of microbial communities is uncertain. There are two reasons for this uncertainty: (1) knowledge gaps in the understanding of the genetic mechanisms underpinning fungal-bacterial symbioses and (2) prevailing interpretations of ecological theory that favor antagonistic interactions as drivers stabilizing biological communities despite the existence of models emphasizing contributions of positive interactions. This review synthesizes information on fungal-bacterial symbioses common in the free-living microbial communities of the soil as well as in host-associated polymicrobial biofilms. The interdomain partnerships are considered in the context of the relevant community ecology models, which are discussed critically.

mbtransfer: Microbiome intervention analysis using transfer functions and mirror statistics

Time series studies of microbiome interventions provide valuable data about microbial ecosystem structure. Unfortunately, existing models of microbial community dynamics have limited temporal memory and expressivity, relying on Markov or linearity assumptions. To address this, we introduce a new class of models based on transfer functions. These models learn impulse responses, capturing the potentially delayed effects of environmental changes on the microbial community. This allows us to simulate trajectories under hypothetical interventions and select significantly perturbed taxa with False Discovery Rate guarantees. Through simulations, we show that our approach effectively reduces forecasting errors compared to strong baselines and accurately pinpoints taxa of interest. Our case studies highlight the interpretability of the resulting differential response trajectories. An R package, mbtransfer, and notebooks to replicate the simulation and case studies are provided.

Surrogate modeling and control of medical digital twins

The vision of personalized medicine is to identify interventions that maintain or restore a person's health based on their individual biology. Medical digital twins, computational models that integrate a wide range of health-related data about a person and can be dynamically updated, are a key technology that can help guide medical decisions. Such medical digital twin models can be high-dimensional, multi-scale, and stochastic. To be practical for healthcare applications, they often need to be simplified into low-dimensional surrogate models that can be used for optimal design of interventions. This paper introduces surrogate modeling algorithms for the purpose of optimal control applications. As a use case, we focus on agent-based models (ABMs), a common model type in biomedicine for which there are no readily available optimal control algorithms. By deriving surrogate models that are based on systems of ordinary differential equations, we show how optimal control methods can be employed to compute effective interventions, which can then be lifted back to a given ABM. The relevance of the methods introduced here extends beyond medical digital twins to other complex dynamical systems.

Kinetics-based inference of environment-dependent microbial interactions and their dynamic variation

Microbial communities in nature are dynamically evolving as member species change their interactions subject to environmental variations. Accounting for such context-dependent dynamic variations in interspecies interactions is critical for predictive ecological modeling. In the absence of generalizable theoretical foundations, we lack a fundamental understanding of how microbial interactions are driven by environmental factors, significantly limiting our capability to predict and engineer community dynamics and function. To address this issue, we propose a novel theoretical framework that allows us to represent interspecies interactions as an explicit function of environmental variables (such as substrate concentrations) by combining growth kinetics and a generalized Lotka-Volterra model. A synergistic integration of these two complementary models leads to the prediction of alterations in interspecies interactions as the outcome of dynamic balances between positive and negative influences of microbial species in mixed relationships. The effectiveness of our method was experimentally demonstrated using a synthetic consortium of two Escherichia coli mutants that are metabolically dependent (due to an inability to synthesize essential amino acids) but competitively grow on a shared substrate. The analysis of the E. coli binary consortium using our model not only showed how interactions between the two amino acid auxotrophic mutants are controlled by the dynamic shifts in limiting substrates but also enabled quantifying previously uncharacterizable complex aspects of microbial interactions, such as asymmetry in interactions. Our approach can be extended to other ecological systems to model their environment-dependent interspecies interactions from growth kinetics.IMPORTANCEModeling environment-controlled interspecies interactions through separate identification of positive and negative influences of microbes in mixed relationships is a new capability that can significantly improve our ability to understand, predict, and engineer the complex dynamics of microbial communities. Moreover, the prediction of microbial interactions as a function of environmental variables can serve as valuable benchmark data to validate modeling and network inference tools in microbial ecology, the development of which has often been impeded due to the lack of ground truth information on interactions. While demonstrated against microbial data, the theory developed in this work is readily applicable to general community ecology to predict interactions among macroorganisms, such as plants and animals, as well as microorganisms.

Sediment DNA Records the Critical Transition of Bacterial Communities in the Arid Lake

It is necessary to predict the critical transition of lake ecosystems due to their abrupt, non-linear effects on social-economic systems. Given the promising application of paleolimnological archives to tracking the historical changes of lake ecosystems, it is speculated that they can also record the lake's critical transition. We studied Lake Dali-Nor in the arid region of Inner Mongolia because of the profound shrinking the lake experienced between the 1300 s and the 1600 s. We reconstructed the succession of bacterial communities from a 140-cm-long sediment core at 4-cm intervals and detected the critical transition. Our results showed that the historical trajectory of bacterial communities from the 1200 s to the 2010s was divided into two alternative states: state1 from 1200 to 1300 s and state2 from 1400 to 2010s. Furthermore, in the late 1300 s, the appearance of a tipping point and critical slowing down implied the existence of a critical transition. By using a multi-decadal time series from the sedimentary core, with general Lotka-Volterra model simulations, local stability analysis found that bacterial communities were the most unstable as they approached the critical transition, suggesting that the collapse of stability triggers the community shift from an equilibrium state to another state. Furthermore, the most unstable community harbored the strongest antagonistic and mutualistic interactions, which may imply the detrimental role of interaction strength on community stability. Collectively, our study showed that sediment DNA can be used to detect the critical transition of lake ecosystems.

The MTIST platform: a microbiome time series inference standardized test

The human gut microbiome is a promising therapeutic target, but interventions are hampered by our limited understanding of microbial ecosystems. Here, we present a platform to develop, evaluate, and score approaches to learn ecological interactions from microbiome time series data. The microbiome time series inference standardized test (MTIST) comprises: a simulation framework for the in silico generation of microbiome study data akin to what is obtained with quantitative next-generation sequencing approaches, a compilation of a large curated data set generated by the simulation framework representing 648 simulated microbiome studies containing 18,360 time series, with a total of 2,182,800 species abundance measurements, and a scoring method to rank ecological inference algorithms. We use the MTIST platform to rank five implementations of microbiome inference approaches, revealing that while all algorithms performed well on ecosystems with few species (3 and 10), all algorithms failed to infer most interaction in a large ecosystem with 100 member species. However, we do find that the strongest interactions within a large ecosystem are inferred with higher success by all algorithms. Finally, we use the MTIST platform to compare different microbiome study designs, characterizing tradeoffs between samples per subject and number of subjects. Interestingly, we find that when only few samples can be collected per subject, ecological inference is most successful when these samples are collected with highest feasible temporal frequency. Taken together, we provide a computational tool to aid the development of better microbiome ecosystem inference approaches, which will be crucial towards the development of reliable and predictable therapeutic approaches that target the microbiome ecosystem.

A digital twin of the infant microbiome to predict neurodevelopmental deficits

Despite the recognized gut-brain axis link, natural variations in microbial profiles between patients hinder definition of normal abundance ranges, confounding the impact of dysbiosis on infant neurodevelopment. We infer a digital twin of the infant microbiome, forecasting ecosystem trajectories from a few initial observations. Using 16S ribosomal RNA profiles from 88 preterm infants (398 fecal samples and 32,942 abundance estimates for 91 microbial classes), the model (Q-net) predicts abundance dynamics with R2 = 0.69. Contrasting the fit to Q-nets of typical versus suboptimal development, we can reliably estimate individual deficit risk (Mδ) and identify infants achieving poor future head circumference growth with ≈76% area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 95% ± 1.8% positive predictive value at 98% specificity at 30 weeks postmenstrual age. We find that early transplantation might mitigate risk for ≈45.2% of the cohort, with potentially negative effects from incorrect supplementation. Q-nets are generative artificial intelligence models for ecosystem dynamics, with broad potential applications.

Modeling Microbial Community Networks: Methods and Tools for Studying Microbial Interactions

Microbial interactions function as a fundamental unit in complex ecosystems. By characterizing the type of interaction (positive, negative, neutral) occurring in these dynamic systems, one can begin to unravel the role played by the microbial species. Towards this, various methods have been developed to decipher the function of the microbial communities. The current review focuses on the various qualitative and quantitative methods that currently exist to study microbial interactions. Qualitative methods such as co-culturing experiments are visualized using microscopy-based techniques and are combined with data obtained from multi-omics technologies (metagenomics, metabolomics, metatranscriptomics). Quantitative methods include the construction of networks and network inference, computational models, and development of synthetic microbial consortia. These methods provide a valuable clue on various roles played by interacting partners, as well as possible solutions to overcome pathogenic microbes that can cause life-threatening infections in susceptible hosts. Studying the microbial interactions will further our understanding of complex less-studied ecosystems and enable design of effective frameworks for treatment of infectious diseases.

DEFM: Delay-embedding-based forecast machine for time series forecasting by spatiotemporal information transformation

Making accurate forecasts for a complex system is a challenge in various practical applications. The major difficulty in solving such a problem concerns nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics with time-varying characteristics. Takens' delay embedding theory provides a way to transform high-dimensional spatial information into temporal information. In this work, by combining delay embedding theory and deep learning techniques, we propose a novel framework, delay-embedding-based forecast Machine (DEFM), to predict the future values of a target variable in a self-supervised and multistep-ahead manner based on high-dimensional observations. With a three-module spatiotemporal architecture, the DEFM leverages deep neural networks to effectively extract both the spatially and temporally associated information from the observed time series even with time-varying parameters or additive noise. The DEFM can accurately predict future information by transforming spatiotemporal information to the delay embeddings of a target variable. The efficacy and precision of the DEFM are substantiated through applications in three spatiotemporally chaotic systems: a 90-dimensional (90D) coupled Lorenz system, the Lorenz 96 system, and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation with inhomogeneity. Additionally, the performance of the DEFM is evaluated on six real-world datasets spanning various fields. Comparative experiments with five prediction methods illustrate the superiority and robustness of the DEFM and show the great potential of the DEFM in temporal information mining and forecasting.

Progress on network modeling and analysis of gut microecology: a review

The gut microecological network is a complex microbial community within the human body that plays a key role in linking dietary nutrition and host physiology. To understand the complex relationships among microbes and their functions within this community, network analysis has emerged as a powerful tool. By representing the interactions between microbes and their associated omics data as a network, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of the ecological mechanisms that drive the human gut microbiota. In addition, the network-based approach provides a more intuitive analysis of the gut microbiota, simplifying the study of its complex dynamics and interdependencies. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the methods used to construct and analyze networks in the context of gut microecological background. We discuss various types of network modeling approaches, including co-occurrence networks, causal networks, dynamic networks, and multi-omics networks, and describe the analytical techniques used to identify important network properties. We also highlight the challenges and limitations of network modeling in this area, such as data scarcity and heterogeneity, and provide future research directions to overcome these limitations. By exploring these network-based methods, researchers can gain valuable insights into the intricate relationships and functional roles of microbial communities within the gut, ultimately advancing our understanding of the gut microbiota's impact on human health.

Integrating microbial abundance time series with fermentation dynamics of the rumen microbiome via mathematical modelling

The rumen represents a dynamic microbial ecosystem where fermentation metabolites and microbial concentrations change over time in response to dietary changes. The integration of microbial genomic knowledge and dynamic modelling can enhance our system-level understanding of rumen ecosystem's function. However, such an integration between dynamic models and rumen microbiota data is lacking. The objective of this work was to integrate rumen microbiota time series determined by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing into a dynamic modelling framework to link microbial data to the dynamics of the volatile fatty acids (VFA) production during fermentation. For that, we used the theory of state observers to develop a model that estimates the dynamics of VFA from the data of microbial functional proxies associated with the specific production of each VFA. We determined the microbial proxies using CowPi to infer the functional potential of the rumen microbiota and extrapolate their functional modules from KEGG (Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes). The approach was challenged using data from an in vitro RUSITEC experiment and from an in vivo experiment with four cows. The model performance was evaluated by the coefficient of variation of the root mean square error (CRMSE). For the in vitro case study, the mean CVRMSE were 9.8% for acetate, 14% for butyrate and 14.5% for propionate. For the in vivo case study, the mean CVRMSE were 16.4% for acetate, 15.8% for butyrate and 19.8% for propionate. The mean CVRMSE for the VFA molar fractions were 3.1% for acetate, 3.8% for butyrate and 8.9% for propionate. Ours results show the promising application of state observers integrated with microbiota time series data for predicting rumen microbial metabolism.

Temporal profiling of sediment microbial communities in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area discovered time-dissimilarity patterns and multiple stable states

Microbial communities play vital roles in cycling nutrients and maintaining water quality in aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the dynamics of microbial communities and to pave way to effective ecological remediation, it's essential to reveal the temporal patterns of the communities and to identify their states. However, research exploring the dynamic changes of microbial communities needs a large amount of time-series data, which could be an extravagant requirement for a single study. In this research, we overcame this challenge by conducting a meta-analysis of years of accumulations of 16S rRNA high-throughput sequencing data from the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA), an ecological and environmental hotspot. For better understanding the microbial communities time-dissimilarity dynamics, three microbial communities time-dissimilarity patterns were hypothesized, and the linear pattern in the TGRA was validated. In addition, to explore the stability of microbial communities in the TGRA, two alternative stable states were revealed, and their differences in community richness, alpha diversity indices, community composition, ecological network topological properties, and metabolic functions were demonstrated. In short, two states of microbial communities showed distinct richness and alpha diversity indices, and the communities in one state were more dominated by Halomonas and Nitrosopumilaceae genera, facilitating nitrogen cycling metabolic processes; whilst the main genera of the other state were Bathyarchaeia and Methanosaeta, which favored methane-related metabolism. Moreover, different studies and environmental differences between mainstream and tributaries were attributed as the potential inducing factors of the state division. Our study provides a comprehensive insight into the dynamics and stability of microbial communities in the TGRA, and a reference for future studies on microbial community dynamics.

Impact of evolution on lifestyle in microbiome

This chapter analyses the interaction between microbiota and humans from an evolutionary point of view. Long-term interactions between gut microbiota and host have been generated as a result of dietary choices through coevolutionary processes, where mutuality of advantage is essential. Likewise, the characteristics of the intestinal environment have made it possible to describe different intrahost evolutionary mechanisms affecting microbiota. For its part, the intestinal microbiota has been of great importance in the evolution of mammals, allowing the diversification of dietary niches, phenotypic plasticity and the selection of host phenotypes. Although the origin of the human intestinal microbial community is still not known with certainty, mother-offspring transmission plays a key role, and it seems that transmissibility between individuals in adulthood also has important implications. Finally, it should be noted that certain aspects inherent to modern lifestyle, including refined diets, antibiotic intake, exposure to air pollutants, microplastics, and stress, could negatively affect the diversity and composition of our gut microbiota. This chapter aims to combine current knowledge to provide a comprehensive view of the interaction between microbiota and humans throughout evolution.

Antibiotic induced adipose tissue browning in C57BL/6 mice: An association with the metabolic profile and the gut microbiota

AIMS

The use of antibiotics affects health. The gut microbial dysbiosis by antibiotics is thought to be an essential pathway to influence health. It is important to have optimized energy utilization, in which adipose tissues (AT) play crucial roles in maintaining health. Adipocytes regulate the balance between energy expenditure and storage. While it is known that white adipose tissue (WAT) stores energy and brown adipose tissue (BAT) produces energy by thermogenesis, the role of an intermediate AT plays an important role in balancing host internal energy. In the current study, we tried to understand how treating an antibiotic cocktail transforms WAT into BAT or, more precisely, into beige adipose tissue (BeAT).

METHODS

Since antibiotic treatment perturbs the host microbiota, we wanted to understand the role of gut microbial dysbiosis in transforming WAT into BeAT in C57BL/6 mice. We further correlated the metabolic profile at the systemic level with this BeAT transformation and gut microbiota profile.

KEY FINDINGS

In the present study, we have reported that the antibiotic cocktail treatment increases the Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria while reducing the Bacteroidetes phylum. We observed that prolonged antibiotic treatment could induce the formation of BeAT in the inguinal and perigonadal AT. The correlation analysis showed an association between the gut microbiota phyla, beige adipose tissue markers, and serum metabolites.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our study revealed that the gut microbiota has a significant role in regulating the metabolic health of the host via microbiota-adipose axis communication.

Metabolic model-based ecological modeling for probiotic design

The microbial community composition in the human gut has a profound effect on human health. This observation has lead to extensive use of microbiome therapies, including over-the-counter 'probiotic' treatments intended to alter the composition of the microbiome. Despite so much promise and commercial interest, the factors that contribute to the success or failure of microbiome-targeted treatments remain unclear. We investigate the biotic interactions that lead to successful engraftment of a novel bacterial strain introduced to the microbiome as in probiotic treatments. We use pairwise genome-scale metabolic modeling with a generalized resource allocation constraint to build a network of interactions between taxa that appear in an experimental engraftment study. We create induced sub-graphs using the taxa present in individual samples and assess the likelihood of invader engraftment based on network structure. To do so, we use a generalized Lotka-Volterra model, which we show has strong ability to predict if a particular invader or probiotic will successfully engraft into an individual's microbiome. Furthermore, we show that the mechanistic nature of the model is useful for revealing which microbe-microbe interactions potentially drive engraftment.

Interpretable predictions of chaotic dynamical systems using dynamical system deep learning

Making accurate predictions of chaotic dynamical systems is an essential but challenging task with many practical applications in various disciplines. However, the current dynamical methods can only provide short-term precise predictions, while prevailing deep learning techniques with better performances always suffer from model complexity and interpretability. Here, we propose a new dynamic-based deep learning method, namely the dynamical system deep learning (DSDL), to achieve interpretable long-term precise predictions by the combination of nonlinear dynamics theory and deep learning methods. As validated by four chaotic dynamical systems with different complexities, the DSDL framework significantly outperforms other dynamical and deep learning methods. Furthermore, the DSDL also reduces the model complexity and realizes the model transparency to make it more interpretable. We firmly believe that the DSDL framework is a promising and effective method for comprehending and predicting chaotic dynamical systems.

Community-scale models of microbiomes: Articulating metabolic modelling and metagenome sequencing

Building models is essential for understanding the functions and dynamics of microbial communities. Metabolic models built on genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions (GENREs) are especially relevant as a means to decipher the complex interactions occurring among species. Model reconstruction increasingly relies on metagenomics, which permits direct characterisation of naturally occurring communities that may contain organisms that cannot be isolated or cultured. In this review, we provide an overview of the field of metabolic modelling and its increasing reliance on and synergy with metagenomics and bioinformatics. We survey the means of assigning functions and reconstructing metabolic networks from (meta-)genomes, and present the variety and mathematical fundamentals of metabolic models that foster the understanding of microbial dynamics. We emphasise the characterisation of interactions and the scaling of model construction to large communities, two important bottlenecks in the applicability of these models. We give an overview of the current state of the art in metagenome sequencing and bioinformatics analysis, focusing on the reconstruction of genomes in microbial communities. Metagenomics benefits tremendously from third-generation sequencing, and we discuss the opportunities of long-read sequencing, strain-level characterisation and eukaryotic metagenomics. We aim at providing algorithmic and mathematical support, together with tool and application resources, that permit bridging the gap between metagenomics and metabolic modelling.

Identifying keystone species in microbial communities using deep learning

Previous studies suggested that microbial communities can harbour keystone species whose removal can cause a dramatic shift in microbiome structure and functioning. Yet, an efficient method to systematically identify keystone species in microbial communities is still lacking. Here we propose a data-driven keystone species identification (DKI) framework based on deep learning to resolve this challenge. Our key idea is to implicitly learn the assembly rules of microbial communities from a particular habitat by training a deep-learning model using microbiome samples collected from this habitat. The well-trained deep-learning model enables us to quantify the community-specific keystoneness of each species in any microbiome sample from this habitat by conducting a thought experiment on species removal. We systematically validated this DKI framework using synthetic data and applied DKI to analyse real data. We found that those taxa with high median keystoneness across different communities display strong community specificity. The presented DKI framework demonstrates the power of machine learning in tackling a fundamental problem in community ecology, paving the way for the data-driven management of complex microbial communities.

Optimizing chemotherapy treatment outcomes using metaheuristic optimization algorithms: A case study

BACKGROUND

This study explores the dynamics of a mathematical model, utilizing ordinary differential equations (ODE), to depict the interplay between cancer cells and effector cells under chemotherapy. The stability of the equilibrium points in the model is analysed using the Jacobian matrix and eigenvalues. Additionally, bifurcation analysis is conducted to determine the optimal values for the control parameters.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of the model and control strategies, benchmarking simulations are performed using the PlatEMO platform.

METHODS

The Pure Multi-objective Optimal Control Problem (PMOCP) and the Hybrid Multi-objective Optimal Control Problem (HMOCP) are two different forms of optimal control problems that are solved using revolutionary metaheuristic optimisation algorithms. The utilization of the Hypervolume (HV) performance indicator allows for the comparison of various metaheuristic optimization algorithms in their efficacy for solving the PMOCP and HMOCP.

RESULTS

Results indicate that the MOPSO algorithm excels in solving the HMOCP, with M-MOPSO outperforming for PMOCP in HV analysis.

CONCLUSION

Despite not directly addressing immediate clinical concerns, these findings indicates that the stability shifts at critical thresholds may impact treatment efficacy.

Molecular ecology of microbiomes in the wild: Common pitfalls, methodological advances and future directions

The study of microbiomes across organisms and environments has become a prominent focus in molecular ecology. This perspective article explores common challenges, methodological advancements, and future directions in the field. Key research areas include understanding the drivers of microbiome community assembly, linking microbiome composition to host genetics, exploring microbial functions, transience and spatial partitioning, and disentangling non-bacterial components of the microbiome. Methodological advancements, such as quantifying absolute abundances, sequencing complete genomes, and utilizing novel statistical approaches, are also useful tools for understanding complex microbial diversity patterns. Our aims are to encourage robust practices in microbiome studies and inspire researchers to explore the next frontier of this rapidly changing field.

Methodological Considerations in Longitudinal Analyses of Microbiome Data: A Comprehensive Review

Biological processes underlying health and disease are inherently dynamic and are best understood when characterized in a time-informed manner. In this comprehensive review, we discuss challenges inherent in time-series microbiome data analyses and compare available approaches and methods to overcome them. Appropriate handling of longitudinal microbiome data can shed light on important roles, functions, patterns, and potential interactions between large numbers of microbial taxa or genes in the context of health, disease, or interventions. We present a comprehensive review and comparison of existing microbiome time-series analysis methods, for both preprocessing and downstream analyses, including differential analysis, clustering, network inference, and trait classification. We posit that the careful selection and appropriate utilization of computational tools for longitudinal microbiome analyses can help advance our understanding of the dynamic host-microbiome relationships that underlie health-maintaining homeostases, progressions to disease-promoting dysbioses, as well as phases of physiologic development like those encountered in childhood.

Dissecting the Impact of the Gut Microbiome on Cancer Immunotherapy

The gut microbiome has emerged as a key regulator of response to cancer immunotherapy. However, there is a gap in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which the microbiome influences immunotherapy. To this end, we developed a mathematical model based on i) gut microbiome data derived from preclinical studies on melanomas after fecal microbiota transplant, ii) mechanistic modeling of antitumor immune response, and iii) robust association analysis of murine and human microbiome profiles with model-predicted immune profiles. Using our model, we could distill the complexity of these murine and human studies on microbiome modulation in terms of just two model parameters: the activation and killing rate constants of immune cells. We further investigated associations between specific bacterial taxonomies and antitumor immunity and immunotherapy efficacy. This model can guide the design of studies to refine and validate mechanistic links between the microbiome and immune system.

Reactivity of complex communities can be more important than stability

Understanding stability-whether a community will eventually return to its original state after a perturbation-is a major focus in the study of various complex systems, particularly complex ecosystems. Here, we challenge this focus, showing that short-term dynamics can be a better predictor of outcomes for complex ecosystems. Using random matrix theory, we study how complex ecosystems behave immediately after small perturbations. Our analyses show that many communities are expected to be 'reactive', whereby some perturbations will be amplified initially and generate a response that is directly opposite to that predicted by typical stability measures. In particular, we find reactivity is prevalent for complex communities of mixed interactions and for structured communities, which are both expected to be common in nature. Finally, we show that reactivity can be a better predictor of extinction risk than stability, particularly when communities face frequent perturbations, as is increasingly common. Our results suggest that, alongside stability, reactivity is a fundamental measure for assessing ecosystem health.

Inflammatory bowel disease biomarkers revealed by the human gut microbiome network

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are complex medical conditions in which the gut microbiota is attacked by the immune system of genetically predisposed subjects when exposed to yet unclear environmental factors. The complexity of this class of diseases makes them suitable to be represented and studied with network science. In this paper, the metagenomic data of control, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis subjects' gut microbiota were investigated by representing this data as correlation networks and co-expression networks. We obtained correlation networks by calculating Pearson's correlation between gene expression across subjects. A percolation-based procedure was used to threshold and binarize the adjacency matrices. In contrast, co-expression networks involved the construction of the bipartite subjects-genes networks and the monopartite genes-genes projection after binarization of the biadjacency matrix. Centrality measures and community detection were used on the so-built networks to mine data complexity and highlight possible biomarkers of the diseases. The main results were about the modules of Bacteroides, which were connected in the control subjects' correlation network, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, where co-enzyme A became central in IBD correlation networks and Escherichia coli, whose module has different patterns of integration within the whole network in the different diagnoses.