Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis

Evaluation of Ground and Aerial Ultra-Low Volume Applications Using ReMoa Tri Against Deltamethrin-Resistant Aedes aegypti from Collier County, Florida

New intervention methods and product formulations are needed to better control pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti populations and mitigate the risk of mosquito-borne disease. ReMoa Tri is a novel adulticidal space spray that utilizes a different mode of action than the commonly used adulticides: pyrethroids and organophosphates. As a triple-action space spray, ReMoa Tri combines three components: Fenpropathrin, a mixed-type I/II pyrethroid; abamectin, a macrocyclic lactone; and C8910, a patented fatty acid chain. Prior studies performed by Collier Mosquito Control District showed that ReMoa Tri is effective at controlling type I pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. To further validate these results and the performance of ReMoa Tri, we conducted a semi-field evaluation using ground and aerial ULV (ultra-low volume) applications with field-caught deltamethrin-resistant Ae. aegypti and a susceptible Ae. aegypti laboratory strain. Ground evaluations tested ReMoa Tri and a type II pyrethroid-based product, DeltaGard. While ReMoa Tri was equally effective against Collier's deltamethrin-resistant Ae. aegypti and the susceptible laboratory strain, DeltaGard was effective against both strains, with reduced efficacy at farther distances. Similarly, aerial evaluations also showed that ReMoa Tri was equally effective against Collier's deltamethrin-resistant Ae. aegypti strain and susceptible laboratory strain. This study further confirms ReMoa Tri's potential as an effective alternative to pyrethroid-based adulticides, both in ground and aerial applications, for managing pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti.

Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections

Global risk maps are an important tool for assessing the global threat of mosquito and tick-transmitted arboviral diseases. Public health officials increasingly rely on risk maps to understand the drivers of transmission, forecast spread, identify gaps in surveillance, estimate disease burden, and target and evaluate the impact of interventions. Here, we describe how current approaches to mapping arboviral diseases have become unnecessarily siloed, ignoring the strengths and weaknesses of different data types and methods. This places limits on data and model output comparability, uncertainty estimation and generalisation that limit the answers they can provide to some of the most pressing questions in arbovirus control. We argue for a new generation of risk mapping models that jointly infer risk from multiple data types. We outline how this can be achieved conceptually and show how this new framework creates opportunities to better integrate epidemiological understanding and uncertainty quantification. We advocate for more co-development of risk maps among modellers and end-users to better enable risk maps to inform public health decisions. Prospective validation of risk maps for specific applications can inform further targeted data collection and subsequent model refinement in an iterative manner. If the expanding use of arbovirus risk maps for control is to continue, methods must develop and adapt to changing questions, interventions and data availability.

Mapping Potential Malaria Vector Larval Habitats for Larval Source Management in Western Kenya: Introduction to Multimodel Ensembling Approaches

Identification and mapping of larval sources are a prerequisite for effective planning and implementing mosquito larval source management (LSM). Ensemble modeling is increasingly used for prediction modeling, but it lacks standard procedures. We proposed a detailed framework to predict potential malaria vector larval habitats by using multimodel ensemble modeling, which includes selection of models, ensembling method, and predictors, evaluation of variable importance, prediction of potential larval habitats, and assessment of prediction uncertainty. The models were built and validated based on multisite, multiyear field observations and climatic/environmental variables. Model performance was tested using independent field observations. Overall, we found that the ensembled model predicted larval habitats with about 20% more accuracy than the average of the individual models ensembled. Key larval habitat predictors in western Kenya were elevation, geomorphon class, and precipitation for the 2 months prior. Additional predictors may be required to increase the predictive accuracy of the larva-positive habitats. This is the first study to provide a detailed framework for the process of multimodel ensemble modeling for malaria vector habitats. Mapping of potential habitats will be helpful in LSM planning.

Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available.

METHODS

We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution.

FINDINGS

In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R0 when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain).

INTERPRETATION

Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised.

FUNDING

EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

Diel activity patterns of vector mosquito species in the urban environment: Implications for vector control strategies

Mathematical models have been widely used to study the population dynamics of mosquitoes as well as to test and validate the effectiveness of arbovirus outbreak responses and mosquito control strategies. The objective of this study is to assess the diel activity of mosquitoes in Miami-Dade, Florida, and Brownsville, Texas, the most affected areas during the Zika outbreak in 2016-2017, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated adulticide treatments on local mosquito populations. To assess variations in the diel activity patterns, mosquitoes were collected hourly for 96 hours once a month from May through November 2019 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and Brownsville, Texas. We then performed a PERMANOVA followed by a SIMPER analysis to assess whether the abundance and species richness significantly varies at different hours of the day. Finally, we used a mathematical model to simulate the population dynamics of 5 mosquito vector species and evaluate the effectiveness of the simulated adulticide applications. A total of 14,502 mosquitoes comprising 17 species were collected in Brownsville and 10,948 mosquitoes comprising 19 species were collected in Miami-Dade County. Aedes aegypti was the most common mosquito species collected every hour in both cities and peaking in abundance in the morning and the evening. Our modeling results indicate that the effectiveness of adulticide applications varied greatly depending on the hour of the treatment. In both study locations, 9 PM was the best time for adulticide applications targeting all mosquito vector species; mornings/afternoons (9 AM- 5 PM) yielded low effectiveness, especially for Culex species, while at night (12 AM- 6 AM) the effectiveness was particularly low for Aedes species. Our results indicate that the timing of adulticide spraying interventions should be carefully considered by local authorities based on the ecology of the target mosquito species in the focus area.

Past, present and future distribution of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti: The European paradox

The global distribution of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti is the subject of considerable attention because of its pivotal role as a biological vector of several high profile disease pathogens including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. There is also a lot of interest in the projected future species' distribution. However, less effort has been focused on its historical distribution, which has changed substantially over the past 100 years, especially in southern Europe where it was once widespread, but largely disappeared by the middle of the 20th century. The present work utilises all available historical records of the distribution of Ae. aegypti in southern Europe, the Near East within the Mediterranean Basin and North Africa from the late 19th century until the 1960's to construct a spatial distribution model using matching historical climatic and demographic data. The resulting model was then implemented using current climate and demographic data to assess the potential distribution of the vector in the present. The models were rerun with several different assumptions about the thresholds that determine habitat suitability for Ae. aegypti. The historical model matches the historical distributions well. When it is run with current climate values, the predicted present day distribution is somewhat broader than it used to be particularly in north-west France, North Africa and Turkey. Though it is beginning to reappear in the eastern Caucasus, this 'potential' distribution clearly does not match the actual distribution of the species, which suggests some other factors are responsible for its absence. Future distributions based on the historical model also do not match future distributions derived from models based only on present day vector distributions, which predict little or no presence in the Mediterranean Region. At the same time, the vector is widespread in the USA which is predicted to consolidate its range there in future. This contradiction and the implication for possible re-invasion of Europe are discussed.

Snow-Covered Tires Generate Microhabitats That Enhance Overwintering Survival of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Midwest, USA

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is a public health threat because it can potentially transmit multiple pathogenic arboviruses, exhibits aggressive diurnal biting, and is highly invasive. As Ae. albopictus moved northward into the United States, the limits of expansion were predicted as locations with a mean January temperature warmer than -2.5°C. We postulated that the range of Ae. albopictus could exceed these temperature limits if eggs in diapause overwinter in tires that provide an insulating effect from extreme temperatures. Fifteen tires with Ae. albopictus and Aedes triseriatus (Say) eggs, a native cold hardy species, were placed outside at five locations along a latitudinal gradient in Wisconsin and Illinois during the winter of 2018-2019; notably, in January 2019, a regional arctic air event brought the lowest temperatures recorded in over 20 yr. External and internal tire temperatures were recorded at 3 hr intervals, and egg survival was recorded after six months. Aedes albopictus eggs survived only from tires at northernmost locations. The mean internal January temperature of tires that supported survival was -1.8°C, while externally the mean temperature was -5.3°C, indicating that tires provided an average of +3.5°C of insulation. Tires that supported egg survival also had over 100 mm of snow cover during January. In the absence of snow cover, tires across the study area provided an average +0.79°C [95% CI 0.34-1.11] insulation. This work provides strong argument for the inclusion of microhabitats in models of dispersal and establishment of Ae. albopictus and other vector species.

Needs Assessment of Southeastern United States Vector Control Agencies: Capacity Improvement Is Greatly Needed to Prevent the Next Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak

A national 2017 vector control capacity survey was conducted to assess the United States’ (U.S.’s) ability to prevent emerging vector-borne disease. Since that survey, the southeastern U.S. has experienced continued autochthonous exotic vector-borne disease transmission and establishment of invasive vector species. To understand the current gaps in control programs and establish a baseline to evaluate future vector control efforts for this vulnerable region, a focused needs assessment survey was conducted in early 2020. The southeastern U.S. region was targeted, as this region has a high probability of novel vector-borne disease introduction. Paper copies delivered in handwritten envelopes and electronic copies of the survey were delivered to 386 unique contacts, and 150 returned surveys were received, corresponding to a 39% response rate. Overall, the survey found vector control programs serving areas with over 100,000 residents and those affiliated with public health departments had more core capabilities compared to smaller programs and those not affiliated with public health departments. Furthermore, the majority of vector control programs in this region do not routinely monitor for pesticide resistance. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that the majority of the southeastern U.S. is vulnerable to vector-borne disease outbreaks. Results from this survey raise attention to the critical need of providing increased resources to bring all vector control programs to a competent level, ensuring that public health is protected from the threat of vector-borne disease.

Mosquito surveillance in maritime entry ports in Miami-Dade County, Florida to increase preparedness and allow the early detection of invasive mosquito species

Invasive mosquito vector species have been inadvertently transported to new areas by humans for decades. Strong evidence supports that monitoring maritime, terrestrial, and aerial points of entry is an essential part of the effort to curb the invasion and establishment of invasive vector mosquito species. Miami-Dade County, Florida is an important operational hub for the cruise ship industry and leisure boats that routinely visit nearby areas in the Caribbean, and freight cargo ships transporting goods from Miami-Dade to Caribbean countries and vice versa. To deal with the increasing public health concern, we hypothesized that mosquito surveillance in small- and medium-sized maritime ports of entry in Miami-Dade is crucial to allow the early detection of invasive mosquito species. Therefore, we have selected 12 small- and medium-sized maritime ports of entry in Miami-Dade County with an increased flow of people and commodities that were not covered by the current mosquito surveillance system. Collection sites were comprised of two distinct environments, four marinas with international traffic of leisure boats, and eight maintenance and commercial freight cargo ship ports. Mosquitoes were collected weekly at each of the 12 collection sites for 24 hours for 6 weeks in the Spring and then for 6 additional weeks in the Summer using BG-Sentinel traps. A total of 32,590 mosquitoes were collected, with Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti being the most abundant species totaling 19,987 and 11,247 specimens collected, respectively. Our results show that important mosquito vector species were present in great numbers in all of the 12 maritime ports of entry surveyed during this study. The relative abundance of Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. aegypti was substantially higher in the commercial freight cargo ship ports than in the marinas. These results indicate that even though both areas are conducive for the proliferation of vector mosquitoes, the port area in the Miami River is especially suitable for the proliferation of vector mosquitoes. Therefore, this potentially allows the establishment of invasive mosquito species inadvertently brought in by cargo freights.

Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) Ensemble Distribution Modeling: Applications for Malaria Elimination

In the absence of entomological information, tools for predicting Anopheles spp. presence can help evaluate the entomological risk of malaria transmission. Here, we illustrate how species distribution models (SDM) could quantify potential dominant vector species presence in malaria elimination settings. We fitted a 250 m resolution ensemble SDM for Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann. The ensemble SDM included predictions based on seven different algorithms, 110 occurrence records and 70 model projections. SDM covariates included nine environmental variables that were selected based on their importance from an original set of 28 layers that included remotely and spatially interpolated locally measured variables for the land surface of Costa Rica. Goodness of fit for the ensemble SDM was very high, with a minimum AUC of 0.79. We used the resulting ensemble SDM to evaluate differences in habitat suitability (HS) between commercial plantations and surrounding landscapes, finding a higher HS in pineapple and oil palm plantations, suggestive of An. albimanus presence, than in surrounding landscapes. The ensemble SDM suggested a low HS for An. albimanus at the presumed epicenter of malaria transmission during 2018-2019 in Costa Rica, yet this vector was likely present at the two main towns also affected by the epidemic. Our results illustrate how ensemble SDMs in malaria elimination settings can provide information that could help to improve vector surveillance and control.

Urbanization favors the proliferation of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus in urban areas of Miami-Dade County, Florida

Urbanization processes are increasing globally. Anthropogenic alterations in the environment have profound effects on biodiversity. Decreased biodiversity due to biotic homogenization processes as a consequence of urbanization often result in increased levels of mosquito vector species and vector-borne pathogen transmission. Understanding how anthropogenic alterations in the environment will affect the abundance, richness, and composition of vector mosquito species is crucial for the implementation of effective and targeted mosquito control strategies. We hypothesized that anthropogenic alterations in the environment are responsible for increasing the abundance of mosquito species that are adapted to urban environments such as Aedesaegypti and Culexquinquefasciatus. Therefore, our objective was to survey mosquito relative abundance, richness, and community composition in Miami-Dade County, Florida, in areas with different levels of urbanization. We selected 24 areas, 16 remote areas comprised of natural and rural areas, and 8 urban areas comprised of residential and touristic areas in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Mosquitoes were collected weekly in each area for 24 h for 5 consecutive weeks from August to October 2020 using BG-Sentinel traps baited with dry ice. A total of 36,645 mosquitoes were collected, from which 34,048 were collected in the remote areas and 2,597 in the urban areas. Our results show a clear and well-defined pattern of abundance, richness, and community composition according to anthropogenic modifications in land use and land cover. The more urbanized a given area the fewer species were found and those were primary vectors of arboviruses, Ae.aegypti and Cx.quinquefasciatus.

Modelling distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus using climate, host density and interspecies competition

Florida faces the challenge of repeated introduction and autochthonous transmission of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Empirically-based predictive models of the spatial distribution of these species would aid surveillance and vector control efforts. To predict the occurrence and abundance of these species, we fit a mixed-effects zero-inflated negative binomial regression to a mosquito surveillance dataset with records from more than 200,000 trap days, representative of 53% of the land area and ranging from 2004 to 2018 in Florida. We found an asymmetrical competitive interaction between adult populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus for the sampled sites. Wind speed was negatively associated with the occurrence and abundance of both vectors. Our model predictions show high accuracy (72.9% to 94.5%) in validation tests leaving out a random 10% subset of sites and data since 2017, suggesting a potential for predicting the distribution of the two Aedes vectors.

The Eco-Bio-Social Factors That Modulate Aedes aegypti Abundance in South Texas Border Communities

Simple Summary

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is distributed worldwide and has become a major public health concern due to its proclivity for the urban environment, human feeding behavior, and ability to transmit agents of diseases such as Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. In the continental United States, the region known as the Lower Rio Grande Valley is one of the few areas with local mosquito transmission of these pathogens transmitted by Ae. aegypti. With limited resources for mosquito control in this region, understanding the ecological, biological, and social factors that affect Ae. aegypti population can help guide and improve current control efforts. We were able to observe widespread knowledge regarding Zika, but with very low importance given to mosquitoes as a problem. We found that the presence of window-mounted air conditioning units, number of windows and doors, characteristics of the property, and presence of children in the household all influenced the abundance of Ae. aegypti. The current results not only show a need for improved community engagement for increasing disease and mosquito risk awareness, but also provide risk factors that can guide current vector control activities.

Abstract

Aedes aegypti control requires dedicated resources that are usually scarce, limiting the reach and sustainability of vector control programs. This generates a need to focus on areas at risk of disease transmission and also understand the factors that might modulate local mosquito abundance. We evaluated the eco-bio-social factors that modulate indoor and outdoor relative abundance of female Ae. aegypti in communities of South Texas. We conducted housing quality and Knowledge Attitudes and Practices surveys in households that were part of a weekly mosquito surveillance program in November of 2017 and 2018. Our results showed widespread knowledge of mosquitoes and Zika virus by our participants. However, less than 35% considered them as serious problems in this region. The presence of window-mounted air conditioning units increased the risk of female mosquito relative abundance indoors. An increase in outdoor relative abundance was associated with larger properties and a higher number of children between 6 to 17 years of age. Interestingly, we observed that an increasing number of children <5 years of age modulated both indoor and outdoor relative abundance, with a 52% increase indoors and 30% decrease outdoors. The low perception of mosquito and disease risk highlights engagement needs for vector-borne disease prevention in this region. The identified risk factors can help guide public health officials in their efforts to reduce human and vector contact.

AeDES: a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for environmental suitability of Aedes-borne disease transmission

Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endemic regions by travelers, who can become new sources of mosquito infection upon their return home if the exposed population is susceptible to the disease, and if suitable environmental conditions for the mosquitoes and the virus are present. Since the susceptibility of the human population can be determined via periodic monitoring campaigns, the environmental suitability for the presence of mosquitoes and viruses becomes one of the most important pieces of information for decision makers in the health sector. We present a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for [Formula: see text]-borne diseases' environmental suitability (AeDES) of transmission in the conterminous United States and transboundary regions, using calibrated ento-epidemiological models, climate models and temperature observations. After analyzing the seasonal predictive skill of AeDES, we briefly consider the recent Zika epidemic, and the compound effects of the current Central American dengue outbreak happening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to illustrate how a combination of tailored deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can inform key prevention and control strategies .

Risk of yellow fever virus importation into the United States from Brazil, outbreak years 2016-2017 and 2017-2018

Southeast Brazil has experienced two large yellow fever (YF) outbreaks since 2016. While the 2016–2017 outbreak mainly affected the states of Espírito Santo and Minas Gerais, the 2017–2018 YF outbreak primarily involved the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro, the latter two of which are highly populated and popular destinations for international travelers. This analysis quantifies the risk of YF virus (YFV) infected travelers arriving in the United States via air travel from Brazil, including both incoming Brazilian travelers and returning US travelers. We assumed that US travelers were subject to the same daily risk of YF infection as Brazilian residents. During both YF outbreaks in Southeast Brazil, three international airports—Miami, New York-John F. Kennedy, and Orlando—had the highest risk of receiving a traveler infected with YFV. Most of the risk was observed among incoming Brazilian travelers. Overall, we found low risk of YFV introduction into the United States during the 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 outbreaks. Decision makers can use these results to employ the most efficient and least restrictive actions and interventions.