Shifting patterns of Aedes aegypti fine scale spatial clustering in Iquitos, Peru

Diflubenzuron larvicide auto-dissemination: A modeling study

Proposing substitutes for Pyriproxyfen (PPF) in the auto-dissemination strategy is essential to ensure the continuity of the strategy in the field, especially in the case of the emergence of populations resistant to this larvicide. One possible substitute among the compounds already in use in Brazil is the larvicide Diflubenzuron (DFB). The equation that defines the proportion of oviposition sites (habitats) contaminated by the auto-dissemination strategy was modified to account for the number of visits required to reach the necessary concentration of DFB for contamination, considering scenarios with varying numbers of oviposition sites and mosquito densities. The dissemination was evaluated in oviposition sites of 2 L, 1.5 L, 1 L, 0.5 L, 0.2 L, and 0.1 L. The minimum concentration of active ingredient (a.i) of DFB required for a commercial product to contaminate at least 50% of oviposition sites was also investigated, along with the impact of other vector control methods, such as the removal/destruction of oviposition sites and the use of insecticides to kill adult 'females, on the auto-dissemination approach. The use of pure DFB compounds enabled contamination efficiency of more than 50% in oviposition sites with a volume of less than 2 L in scenarios with fewer oviposition sites. On the other hand, with the use of the commonly used concentration of the product, similar efficacy was only achieved in oviposition sites of 0.1 L and 0.2 L in medium and high infestation scenarios. Strategies that reduce the number of available oviposition sites work synergistically with the auto-dissemination strategy, making it possible to use less concentrated products and contaminated sites of larger volume. The strategy proved to be resilient in situations of insecticide application according to the concentration of DFB used, abundance of females, and low number of oviposition sites. Increasing the number of dissemination traps on the field also contributes to better results, especially for oviposition sites of 0.5 L and 1 L. The results of the model obtained under the stipulated conditions provide further support for the potential use of DFB as a substitute for PPF in the auto-dissemination strategy.

Role of Non-Residential Larval Habitats in Aedes Spatiotemporal Egg Production

Aedes mosquitoes play a pivotal role as vectors of several arboviral diseases, presenting significant public health challenges worldwide. Their invasive success in tropical regions has raised substantial medical concerns. In Guatemala, Aedes mosquitoes are widely distributed and are the primary vectors of the dengue virus. Efforts to control and monitor Aedes populations have evolved over time, incorporating strategies such as spatial repellents, larvicides, genetic modifications, and targeted interventions. Previous research has shown the heterogeneous spatial-temporal distribution of these mosquitoes within each season, influenced by temperature variations and favorable environmental conditions for breeding. This study analyzed hot-spot patterns of spatiotemporal egg density in Santa Elena de la Cruz, Petén, Guatemala, from March to September 2022. The aim was to determine whether these patterns were influenced by non-residential larval habitats with plant cover that are not treated by healthcare entities, as well as the proximity between such habitats. Our findings include the collection and registration of over 16,000 Aedes eggs during the study period. Local analyses revealed hot-spot patterns in egg densities associated with non-residential larval habitats and their proximity. These insights highlight critical focal points where targeted interventions could be implemented more effectively, resulting in cost-efficient mosquito vector control.

Economic optimization of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti release to prevent dengue

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is a major public health concern affecting ≈3.83 billion people worldwide. Recent releases of Wolbachia-transinfected Ae. aegypti in several cities worldwide have shown that it can reduce dengue transmission. However, these releases are costly, and, to date, no framework has been proposed for determining economically optimal release strategies that account for both costs associated with disease risk and releases.

RESULTS

We present a flexible stochastic dynamic programming framework for determining optimal release schedules for Wolbachia-transinfected mosquitoes that balances the cost of dengue infection with the costs of rearing and releasing transinfected mosquitoes. Using an ordinary differential equation model of Wolbachia and dengue in a hypothetical city loosely describing areas at risk of new dengue epidemics, we determined that an all-or-nothing release strategy that quickly brings Wolbachia to fixation is often the optimal solution. Based on this, we examined the optimal facility size, finding that it was inelastic with respect to the mosquito population size, with a 100% increase in population size resulting in a 50-67% increase in optimal facility size. Furthermore, we found that these results are robust to mosquito life-history parameters and are mostly determined by the mosquito population size and the fitness costs associated with Wolbachia.

CONCLUSIONS

These results reinforce that Wolbachia-transinfected mosquitoes can reduce the cost of dengue epidemics. Furthermore, they emphasize the importance of determining the size of the target population and fitness costs associated with Wolbachia before releases occur. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Density of Aedes aegypti and dengue virus transmission risk in two municipalities of Northwestern Antioquia, Colombia

The high infestation of Aedes aegypti populations in Urabá, Antioquia, Colombia represents a risk factor for increased dengue morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to determine the risk of dengue transmission by estimating the population of Ae. aegypti using entomological indices, density of females per dwelling and inhabitant, and virological surveillance in two municipalities in Colombia. A cross-sectional study was conducted with quarterly entomological surveys in three neighborhoods of Apartadó and Turbo between 2021 and 2022. Aedes indices and vector density per dwelling and per inhabitant were calculated. The Kernel method was used for spatial analysis, and correlations between climatic variables and mosquito density were examined. Virus detection and serotyping in mosquitoes was performed using single-step reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The housing, reservoir, and Breteau indices were 48.9%, 29.5%, and 70.2%, respectively. The mean density of Ae. aegypti was 1.47 females / dwelling and 0.51 females / inhabitant. The overall visual analysis showed several critical points in the neighborhoods studied. There was significant correlation of vector density and relative humidity and precipitation in the neighborhoods 29 de noviembre and 24 de diciembre. Additionally, serotypes DENV-1 and DENV-2 were found. The overall indices for dwellings, reservoirs, and Breteau were lower than those recorded in 2014 in Urabá. The vector density results in this study were similar to those reported in other studies conducted in Latin America, and vector infection was detected. The Aedes and density indices are complementary, emphasizing the importance of continuous surveillance of Ae. aegypti to inform appropriate control strategies and prevent future dengue outbreaks in these municipalities.

Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types

Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since outbreak data are often incomplete and may vary in type across outbreaks (e.g., daily case counts, serology, cases per household). We propose that outbreaks described with varied data types can be directly compared by using those data to estimate a common set of epidemiological parameters. To demonstrate this for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), we developed a realistic model of CHIKV transmission, along with a Bayesian inference method that accommodates any type of outbreak data that can be simulated. The inference method makes use of the fact that all data types arise from the same transmission process, which is simulated by the model. We applied these tools to data from three real-world outbreaks of CHIKV in Italy, Cambodia, and Bangladesh to estimate nine model parameters. We found that these populations differed in several parameters, including pre-existing immunity and house-to-house differences in mosquito activity. These differences resulted in posterior predictions of local CHIKV transmission risk that varied nearly fourfold: 16% in Italy, 28% in Cambodia, and 62% in Bangladesh. Our inference method and model can be applied to improve understanding of the epidemiology of CHIKV and other pathogens for which outbreaks are described with varied data types.

Spatial patterns associated with the distribution of immature stages of Aedes aegypti in three dengue high-risk municipalities of Southwestern Colombia

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the main vector of human arbovirosis in tropical and subtropical areas. Their adaptation to urban and rural environments generates infestations inside households. Therefore, entomological surveillance associated with spatio-temporal analysis is an innovative approach for vector control and dengue management. Here, our main aim was to inspect immature pupal stages in households belonging to municipalities at high risk of dengue in Cauca, Colombia, by implementing entomological indices and relating how they influence adult mosquitos' density. We provide novel data for the geographical distribution of 3,806 immature pupal stages of Ae. aegypti. We also report entomological indices and spatial characterization. Our results suggest that, for Ae. aegypti species, pupal productivity generates high densities of adult mosquitos in neighbouring households, evidencing seasonal behaviour. Our dataset is essential as it provides an innovative strategy for mitigating vector-borne diseases using vector spatial patterns. It also delineates the association between these vector spatial patterns, entomological indicators, and breeding sites in high-risk neighbourhoods.

Density of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in a low-income Brazilian urban community where dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses co-circulate

BACKGROUND

Low-income urban communities in the tropics often lack sanitary infrastructure and are overcrowded, favoring Aedes aegypti proliferation and arboviral transmission. However, as Ae. aegypti density is not spatially homogeneous, understanding the role of specific environmental characteristics in determining vector distribution is critical for planning control interventions. The objectives of this study were to identify the main habitat types for Ae. Aegypti, assess their spatial densities to identify major hotspots of arbovirus transmission over time and investigate underlying factors in a low-income urban community in Salvador, Brazil. We also tested the field-collected mosquitoes for arboviruses.

METHODS

A series of four entomological and socio-environmental surveys was conducted in a random sample of 149 households and their surroundings between September 2019 and April 2021. The surveys included searching for potential breeding sites (water-containing habitats) and for Ae. aegypti immatures in them, capturing adult mosquitoes and installing ovitraps. The spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti density indices were plotted using kernel density-ratio maps, and the spatial autocorrelation was assessed for each index. Visual differences on the spatial distribution of the Ae. aegypti hotspots were compared over time. The association of entomological findings with socio-ecological characteristics was examined. Pools of female Ae. aegypti were tested for dengue, Zika and chikungunya virus infection.

RESULTS

Overall, 316 potential breeding sites were found within the study households and 186 in the surrounding public spaces. Of these, 18 (5.7%) and 7 (3.7%) harbored a total of 595 and 283 Ae. aegypti immatures, respectively. The most productive breeding sites were water storage containers within the households and puddles and waste materials in public areas. Potential breeding sites without cover, surrounded by vegetation and containing organic matter were significantly associated with the presence of immatures, as were households that had water storage containers. None of the entomological indices, whether based on immatures, eggs or adults, detected a consistent pattern of vector clustering in the same areas over time. All the mosquito pools were negative for the tested arboviruses.

CONCLUSIONS

This low-income community displayed high diversity of Ae. aegypti habitats and a high degree of heterogeneity of vector abundance in both space and time, a scenario that likely reflects other low-income communities. Improving basic sanitation in low-income urban communities through the regular water supply, proper management of solid wastes and drainage may reduce water storage and the formation of puddles, minimizing opportunities for Ae. aegypti proliferation in such settings.

Spatial Analysis of Dengue Clusters at Department, Municipality and Local Scales in the Southwest of Colombia, 2014-2019

Dengue is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes and is one of the 15 main public health problems in the world, including Colombia. Where limited financial resources create a problem for management, there is a need for the department to prioritize target areas for public health implementation. This study focuses on a spatio-temporal analysis to determine the targeted area to manage the public health problems related to dengue cases. To this end, three phases at three different scales were carried out. First, for the departmental scale, four risk clusters were identified in Cauca (RR ≥ 1.49) using the Poisson model, and three clusters were identified through Getis-Ord Gi* hotspots analysis; among them, Patía municipality presented significantly high incidence rates in the time window (2014-2018). Second, on the municipality scale, altitude and minimum temperature were observed to be more relevant than precipitation; considering posterior means, no spatial autocorrelation for the Markov Chain Monte Carlo was found (Moran test ˂ 1.0), and convergence was reached for b₁-b₁₀₅ with 20,000 iterations. Finally, on the local scale, a clustered pattern was observed for dengue cases distribution (nearest neighbour index, NNI = 0.202819) and the accumulated number of pupae (G = 0.70007). Two neighbourhoods showed higher concentrations of both epidemiological and entomological hotspots. In conclusion, the municipality of Patía is in an operational scenario of a high transmission of dengue.

Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue

Transmission heterogeneity, whereby a disproportionate fraction of pathogen transmission events result from a small number of individuals or geographic locations, is an inherent property of many, if not most, infectious disease systems. For vector-borne diseases, transmission heterogeneity is inferred from the distribution of the number of vectors per host, which could lead to significant bias in situations where vector abundance and transmission risk at the household do not correlate, as is the case with dengue virus (DENV). We used data from a contact tracing study to quantify the distribution of DENV acute infections within human activity spaces (AS), the collection of residential locations an individual routinely visits, and quantified measures of virus transmission heterogeneity from two consecutive dengue outbreaks (DENV-4 and DENV-2) that occurred in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Negative-binomial distributions and Pareto fractions showed evidence of strong overdispersion in the number of DENV infections by AS and identified super-spreading units (SSUs): i.e. AS where most infections occurred. Approximately 8% of AS were identified as SSUs, contributing to more than 50% of DENV infections. SSU occurrence was associated more with DENV-2 infection than with DENV-4, a predominance of inapparent infections (74% of all infections), households with high Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance, and high host susceptibility to the circulating DENV serotype. Marked heterogeneity in dengue case distribution, and the role of inapparent infections in defining it, highlight major challenges faced by reactive interventions if those transmission units contributing the most to transmission are not identified, prioritized, and effectively treated.

A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru

The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures. Aedes aegypti is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, including the yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses. With an anthropophilic habit, Ae. aegypti prefers houses, human blood meals, and ovipositioning in water-filled containers. We hypothesized that this relatively simple ecological niche should allow us to predict the impacts of insecticidal control measures on mosquito populations. To do this, we use Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of Ae. aegypti population biology. SB2 builds on Skeeter Buster, which reproduced equilibrium dynamics of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos, Peru. Our goal was to validate SB2 by predicting the response of mosquito populations to perturbations by indoor insecticidal spraying and widespread destructive insect surveys. To evaluate SB2, we conducted two field experiments in Iquitos, Peru: a smaller pilot study in 2013 (S-2013) followed by a larger experiment in 2014 (L-2014). Here, we compare model predictions with (previously reported) empirical results from these experiments. In both simulated and empirical populations, repeated spraying yielded substantial yet temporary reductions in adult densities. The proportional effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, but we found noteworthy differences. In particular, SB2 consistently over-estimated the proportion of nulliparous females and the proportion of containers holding immature mosquitoes. We also observed less temporal variation in simulated surveys of adult abundance relative to corresponding empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities or sampling processes not effectively represented by SB2. Although additional empirical research could further improve the accuracy and precision of SB2, our results underscore the importance of non-linear dynamics in the response of Ae. aegypti populations to perturbations, and suggest general limits to the fine-grained predictability of its population dynamics over space and time.

Etiologies of Acute Undifferentiated Febrile Illnesses in and near Iquitos from 1993 to 1999 in the Amazon River Basin of Peru

The objective of this study was to determine the etiology of febrile illnesses among patients from October 1, 1993 through September 30, 1999, in the urban community of Iquitos in the Amazon River Basin of Peru. Epidemiological and clinical data as well as blood samples were obtained from consenting patients at hospitals, health clinics and private residences. Samples were tested for arboviruses in cell cultures and for IgM and IgG antibodies by ELISA. Blood smears were examined for malaria, and sera were tested for antibodies to Leptospira spp. by ELISA and microscopic agglutination. Among 6,607 febrile patients studied, dengue viruses caused 14.6% of the cases, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus caused 2.5%, Oropouche virus 1.0%, Mayaro virus 0.4%, and other arboviruses caused 0.2% of the cases. Also, 22.9% of 4,844 patients tested were positive for malaria, and of 400 samples tested, 9% had evidence of acute leptospirosis. Although the study was not designed to assess the importance of these pathogens as a cause of human morbidity in the total population, these results indicate that arboviruses, leptospirosis, and malaria were the cause of approximately 50% of the febrile cases. Although the arboviruses that were diagnosed can produce asymptomatic infections, our findings increased the overall understanding of the relative health burden of these infections, as well as baseline knowledge needed for designing and implementing further studies to better assess the health impact and threat of these pathogens in the Amazon Basin of Peru.

Spatio-Temporal Modelling Informing Wolbachia Replacement Releases in a Low Rainfall Climate

Releases of Aedes aegypti carrying Wolbachia bacteria are known to suppress arbovirus transmission and reduce the incidence of vector-borne diseases. In planning for Wolbachia releases in the arid environment of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, we collected entomological data with ovitraps across a 7-month period in four locations. Herein, we show that mosquito presence in basements does not differ from that of non-basement areas of buildings. In modelling mosquito presence across the study sites, we found the spatial structure to be statistically significant in one of the four sites, while a significant spatial structure was found for egg production data across three of the four sites. The length scales of the spatial covariance functions fitted to the egg production data ranged from 143 m to 574 m, indicating that high productivity regions can be extensive in size. Rank-correlation analyses indicated that mosquito presence tended to persist from the dry to wet season, but that egg production ranks at locations could reverse. The data suggest that, in Jeddah, the quality of the local environment for breeding can vary over time. The data support the feasibility of dry season releases but with release numbers needing to be flexible depending on local rates of invasion.

Use of mobile data collection systems within large-scale epidemiological field trials: findings and lessons-learned from a vector control trial in Iquitos, Peru

Vector-borne diseases are among the most burdensome infectious diseases worldwide with high burden to health systems in developing regions in the tropics. For many of these diseases, vector control to reduce human biting rates or arthropod populations remains the primary strategy for prevention. New vector control interventions intended to be marketed through public health channels must be assessed by the World Health Organization for public health value using data generated from large-scale trials integrating epidemiological endpoints of human health impact. Such phase III trials typically follow large numbers of study subjects to meet necessary power requirements for detecting significant differences between treatment arms, thereby generating substantive and complex datasets. Data is often gathered directly in the field, in resource-poor settings, leading to challenges in efficient data reporting and/or quality assurance. With advancing technology, mobile data collection (MDC) systems have been implemented in many studies to overcome these challenges. Here we describe the development and implementation of a MDC system during a randomized-cluster, placebo-controlled clinical trial evaluating the protective efficacy of a spatial repellent intervention in reducing human infection with Aedes-borne viruses (ABV) in the urban setting of Iquitos, Peru, as well as the data management system that supported it. We discuss the benefits, remaining capacity gaps and the key lessons learned from using a MDC system in this context in detail.

Association between densities of adult and immature stages of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in space and time: implications for vector surveillance

BACKGROUND

Mosquito control is currently the main tool available to contain the spread of several arboviruses in Brazil. We have evaluated the association between entomological surveys of female adult Aedes aegypti and the Breteau index (BI) in space and time in a hyperendemic area, and compared the human resources costs required to measure each of these indicators.

METHODS

Entomological surveys were conducted between 2016 and 2019 in Vila Toninho, a neighborhood in the city of São José do Rio Preto, Brazil. Monthly records of collected mosquito specimens were made and then grouped by season.

RESULTS

Our findings showed that adult and immature mosquitoes are more related in time than in space, possibly due to differences in their habitats or in climate variables. Bayesian temporal modeling revealed that an increase in 1 standard deviation in the BI was associated with a 27% increase in the number of adult female mosquitoes when adjusted for climatic conditions. The cost of entomological surveys of adult mosquitoes was found to be 83% lower than the cost of determining the BI when covering the same geographic area.

CONCLUSIONS

For fine-scale assessments, a simple measure of adult Ae. aegypti abundance may be more realistic than aquatic indicators, but the adult indices are not necessarily the only reliable measure. Surveying adult female mosquitoes has significant potential for optimizing vector control strategies because, unlike the BI, this tool provides an effective indicator for micro-areas within an urban region. It should be noted that the results of the present study may be due to specific features of of the study area, and future studies should analyze whether the patterns found in the study neighborhood are also found in other regions.

Rapid evolution of knockdown resistance haplotypes in response to pyrethroid selection in Aedes aegypti

This study describes the evolution of knockdown resistance (kdr) haplotypes in Aedes aegypti in response to pyrethroid insecticide use over the course of 18 years in Iquitos, Peru. Based on the duration and intensiveness of sampling (~10,000 samples), this is the most thorough study of kdr population genetics in Ae. aegypti to date within a city. We provide evidence for the direct connection between programmatic citywide pyrethroid spraying and the increase in frequency of specific kdr haplotypes by identifying two evolutionary events in the population. The relatively high selection coefficients, even under infrequent insecticide pressure, emphasize how quickly Ae. aegypti populations can evolve. In our examination of the literature on mosquitoes and other insect pests, we could find no cases where a pest evolved so quickly to so few exposures to low or nonresidual insecticide applications. The observed rapid increase in frequency of resistance alleles might have been aided by the incomplete dominance of resistance-conferring alleles over corresponding susceptibility alleles. In addition to dramatic temporal shifts, spatial suppression experiments reveal that genetic heterogeneity existed not only at the citywide scale, but also on a very fine scale within the city.

Exploring the utility of social-ecological and entomological risk factors for dengue infection as surveillance indicators in the dengue hyper-endemic city of Machala, Ecuador

The management of mosquito-borne diseases is a challenge in southern coastal Ecuador, where dengue is hyper-endemic and co-circulates with other arboviral diseases. Prior work in the region has explored social-ecological factors, dengue case data, and entomological indices. In this study, we bring together entomological and epidemiological data to describe links between social-ecological factors associated with risk of dengue transmission at the household level in Machala, Ecuador. Households surveys were conducted from 2014-2017 to assess the presence of adult Aedes aegypti (collected via aspiration) and to enumerate housing conditions, demographics, and mosquito prevention behaviors. Household-level dengue infection status was determined by laboratory diagnostics in 2014-2015. Bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify social-ecological variables associated with household presence of female Ae. aegypti and household dengue infection status, respectively. Aedes aegypti presence was associated with interruptions in water service and weekly trash collection, and household air conditioning was protective against mosquito presence. Presence of female Ae. aegypti was not associated with household dengue infections. We identified shaded patios and head of household employment status as risk factors for household-level dengue infection, while window screening in good condition was identified as protective against dengue infection. These findings add to our understanding of the systems of mosquito-borne disease transmission in Machala, and in the larger region of southern Ecuador, aiding in the development of improved vector surveillance efforts, and targeted interventions.

Infertility and fecundity loss of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti hatched from quiescent eggs is expected to alter invasion dynamics

The endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia shows viral blocking in its mosquito host, leading to its use in arboviral disease control. Releases with Wolbachia strains wMel and wAlbB infecting Aedes aegypti have taken place in several countries. Mosquito egg survival is a key factor influencing population persistence and this trait is also important when eggs are stored prior to releases. We therefore tested the viability of mosquitoes derived from Wolbachia wMel and wAlbB-infected as well as uninfected eggs after long-term storage under diurnal temperature cycles of 11-19°C and 22-30°C. Eggs stored at 11-19°C had higher hatch proportions than those stored at 22-30°C. Adult Wolbachia density declined when they emerged from eggs stored for longer, which was associated with incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) when wMel-infected males were crossed with uninfected females. Females from stored eggs at both temperatures continued to show perfect maternal transmission of Wolbachia, but storage reduced the fecundity of both wMel and wAlbB-infected females relative to uninfected mosquitoes. Furthermore, we found a very strong negative impact of the wAlbB infection on the fertility of females stored at 22-30°C, with almost 80% of females hatching after 11 weeks of storage being infertile. Our findings provide guidance for storing Wolbachia-infected A. aegypti eggs to ensure high fitness adult mosquitoes for release. Importantly, they also highlight the likely impact of egg quiescence on the population dynamics of Wolbachia-infected populations in the field, and the potential for Wolbachia to suppress mosquito populations through cumulative fitness costs across warm and dry periods, with expected effects on dengue transmission.

Do socioeconomic factors drive Aedes mosquito vectors and their arboviral diseases? A systematic review of dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika Virus

As the threat of arboviral diseases continues to escalate worldwide, the question of, "What types of human communities are at the greatest risk of infection?" persists as a key gap in the existing knowledge of arboviral diseases transmission dynamics. Here, we comprehensively review the existing literature on the socioeconomic drivers of the most common Aedes mosquito-borne diseases and Aedes mosquito presence/abundance. We reviewed a total of 182 studies on dengue viruses (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), yellow fever virus (YFVV), Zika virus (ZIKV), and presence of Aedes mosquito vectors. In general, associations between socioeconomic conditions and both Aedes-borne diseases and Aedes mosquitoes are highly variable and often location-specific. Although 50% to 60% of studies found greater presence or prevalence of disease or vectors in areas with lower socioeconomic status, approximately half of the remaining studies found either positive or null associations. We discuss the possible causes of this lack of conclusiveness as well as the implications it holds for future research and prevention efforts.

Spatial analysis of dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti ovitrap surveillance in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

OBJECTIVES

Understanding the intra-urban spatial dynamics of Aedes aegypti and dengue transmission is important to effectively guide vector control. Ovitraps are a sensitive, cost-effective vector surveillance tool, yet few longitudinal studies have evaluated ovitrap indices and dengue occurrence. We aimed to assess the spatial patterns of dengue incidence and Ae. aegypti ovitrap positivity index (OPI) over time and to examine the spatial relationship between these two variables.

METHODS

This study used 12 years (2007-2018) of dengue case records and biweekly Ae. aegypti ovitrap data in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. We aggregated data by year and health centre catchment area (n = 152) and used both univariate and bivariate global Moran's I statistic and LISA to evaluate spatial clustering.

RESULTS

Annual dengue incidence ranged from 18 to 6262/100 000 residents and displayed spatial autocorrelation in 10/12 years, with shifting areas of high incidence. Annual OPI ranged from 35.7 to 47.6% and was clustered in all study years, but unlike dengue had consistent spatial patterns over time. Bivariate analysis found both positive (6/12 years) and negative (1/12 years) spatial associations between the two variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Low detected presence of Ae. aegypti was not a limiting factor in dengue transmission. However, stable spatial distribution of OPI suggests that certain areas may have persistent breeding sites. Future research should identify factors related to persistent Ae. aegypti hotspots to better guide vector management. Vector control efforts should be paired with additional data on population immunity, circulating serotypes and urban factors to better predict and control outbreaks.

Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua

Dengue vector entomological indices are widely used to monitor vector density and disease control activities. But the value of these indices as predictors of dengue infection is not established. We used data from the impact assessment of a trial of community mobilization for dengue prevention (Camino Verde) to examine the associations between vector indices and evidence of dengue infection and their value for predicting dengue infection levels. In 150 clusters in Mexico and Nicaragua, two entomological surveys, three months apart, allowed calculation of the mean Container Index, Breteau index, Pupae per Household Index, and Pupae per Container Index across the two surveys. We measured recent dengue virus infection in children, indicated by a doubling of dengue antibodies in paired saliva samples over the three-month period. We examined the associations between each of the vector indices and evidence of dengue infection at household level and at cluster level, accounting for trial intervention status. To examine the predictive value for dengue infection, we constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at household and cluster level, considering the four vector indices as continuous variables, and calculated the positive and negative likelihood ratios for different levels of the indices. None of the vector indices was associated with recent dengue infection at household level. The Breteau Index was associated with recent infection at cluster level (Odds ratio 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.14–1.61). The ROC curve confirmed the weak predictive value for dengue infection of the Breteau Index at cluster level. Other indices showed no predictive value. Conventional vector indices were not useful in predicting dengue infection in Mexico and Nicaragua. The findings are compatible with the idea of sources of infection outside the household which were tackled by community action in the Camino Verde trial.

Vector control is the basis of preventing dengue virus infection. Measurement of dengue vector indices is widely used to monitor dengue control activities, but their utility as predictors of dengue infection is not clear. We used data about vector indices and evidence of recent dengue virus infection from a trial of community mobilization for dengue prevention in Mexico and Nicaragua (Camino Verde), to examine how four standard vector indices could predict dengue infection. Only the Breteau index was associated with evidence of dengue infection, and that only at cluster level. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves confirmed the Breteau Index was only a weak predictor of infection at cluster level; none of the other indices had predictive value. These findings indicate that the four entomological indices studied were not useful predictors of dengue infection. The results are compatible with the idea of sources of infection outside the household which were tackled by community action in the Camino Verde trial.

Risk factors for Aedes aegypti household pupal persistence in longitudinal entomological household surveys in urban and rural Kenya

Background

Aedes aegypti is an efficient vector of several arboviruses of public health importance, including Zika and dengue. Currently vector management is the only available avenue for disease control. Development of efficient vector control strategies requires a thorough understanding of vector ecology. In this study, we identified households that are consistently productive for Ae. aegypti pupae and determined the ecological and socio-demographic factors associated with the persistence and abundance of pupae in households in rural and urban Kenya.

Methods

We collected socio-demographic, environmental and entomological data monthly from July 2014 to June 2018 from 80 households across four sites in Kenya. Pupae count data were collected via entomological surveillance of households and paired with socio-demographic and environmental data. We calculated pupal persistence within a household as the number of months of pupal presence within a year. We used spatially explicit generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to identify the risk factors for pupal abundance, and a logistic regression to identify the risk factors for pupal persistence in households.

Results

The median number of months of pupal presence observed in households was 4 and ranged from 0 to 35 months. We identified pupal persistence in 85 house-years. The strongest risk factors for high pupal abundance were the presence of bushes or tall grass in the peri-domicile area (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.13–2.28), open eaves (OR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.33–4.95) and high habitat counts (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.21–1.66). The main risk factors for pupal persistence were the presence of bushes or tall grass in the peri-domicile (OR: 4.20, 95% CI: 1.42–12.46) and high number of breeding sites (OR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.03–4.58).

Conclusions

We observed Ae. aegypti pupal persistence at the household level in urban and rural and in coastal and inland Kenya. High counts of potential breeding containers, vegetation in the peri-domicile area and the presence of eaves were strongly associated with increased risk of pupal persistence and abundance. Targeting households that exhibit pupal persistence alongside the risk factors for pupal abundance in vector control interventions may result in more efficient use of limited resources.

Use of an Extended Premise Condition Index for detection of priority areas for vector control actions

The Premise Condition Index (PCI), proposed by Tun-Lin and colleagues in 1995, is a score that considers the conditions of a premise as well its yards and degree of shading. They hypothesized that the higher its value the greater the probability of the premise having the presence of Aedes aegypti. This study aimed to evaluate if there is a correspondence between PCI and Ae. aegypti infestation in four areas of a large city in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, if the inclusion of new categories related to the presence of animals in premises would increase the probability of detecting predictive areas for vector control actions and, if so, to propose an expanded PCI. The positivity of the premises for the presence of Ae. aegypti was modeled considering a Bernoulli probability distribution, in a Bayesian context using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The study showed that, in general, the higher the value of the PCI of a premise, the more likely it is to have the presence of Ae. aegypti, and the inclusion of information on the animals' presence can increase the discriminatory power of PCI. These results support the proposition of an extended PCI that would consider, in addition to the conditions of the premise, the presence of animals to classify it regarding the risk of the presence of Ae. aegypti.

Measuring health related quality of life for dengue patients in Iquitos, Peru

Previous studies measuring the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of individuals with dengue focused on treatment seeking populations. However, the vast majority of global dengue cases are unlikely to be detected by health systems. Representative measurements of HRQoL should therefore include patients with disease not likely to trigger treatment-seeking behavior. This study based in Iquitos, Peru used the Quality of Wellbeing Scale-Self Administered, a survey that enquires about not only physical health, but also psychological health, self-care, mobility, and usual social activities, and rates HRQoL between 0 (death) and 1 (optimum function), to evaluate the impact of dengue on HRQoL. In order to enroll treatment and non treatment-seeking participants, three modalities of participant recruitment were used. In addition to clinic and community-based febrile surveillance, a contact-cluster methodology was also employed to identify infected individuals less likely to seek treatment. We measured changes in HRQoL and identified common areas of health impairment in 73 virologically confirmed dengue cases at 3 time points during the participant's illness; the early-acute (days 0-6 post symptom onset), late-acute (days 7-20), and convalescent illness phases (days 21 +). Participants reported HRQoL related impairments at significantly higher frequency during the early-acute versus convalescent illness phase (Fisher's exact: P<0.01). There was substantial heterogeneity in scores during each illness phase with median scores in the early-acute, late-acute and convalescent phases of 0.56 (IQR: 0.41-0.64), 0.70 (IQR: 0.57-0.94), and 1 (IQR: 0.80-1.00), respectively. In all illness phases participants recruited in clinics had on average the lowest HRQoL scores where as those recruited in the contact clusters had the highest. Only 1 individual who was recruited in the contact-clusters had no reduction in HRQoL score during their illness. These data illustrate that dengue should be considered as a disease that may have significant implications for not only physical health but also psychological health and social functioning. The impact of dengue on the HRQoL of non-treatment-seeking individuals, although lower than the impact among treatment-seeking individuals, is not necessarily trivial.

Quantifying sociodemographic heterogeneities in the distribution of Aedes aegypti among California households

The spread of Aedes aegypti in California and other regions of the U.S. has increased the need to understand the potential for local chains of Ae. aegypti-borne virus transmission, particularly in arid regions where the ecology of these mosquitoes is less understood. For public health and vector control programs, it is helpful to know whether variation in risk of local transmission can be attributed to socio-demographic factors that could help to target surveillance and control programs. Socio-demographic factors have been shown to influence transmission risk of dengue virus outside the U.S. by modifying biting rates and vector abundance. In regions of the U.S. where Ae. aegypti have recently invaded and where residential areas are structured differently than those in the tropics where Ae. aegypti are endemic, it is unclear how socio-demographic factors modify the abundance of Ae. aegypti populations. Understanding heterogeneities among households in Ae. aegypti abundance will provide a better understanding of local vectorial capacity and is an important component of understanding risk of local Ae. aegypti-borne virus transmission. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Los Angeles County, California during summer 2017 to understand the causes of variation in relative abundance of Ae. aegypti among households. We surveyed 161 houses, representing a wide range of incomes. Surveys consisted of systematic adult mosquito collections, inspections of households and properties, and administration of a questionnaire in English or Spanish. Adult Ae. aegypti were detected at 72% of households overall and were found indoors at 12% of households. An average of 3.1 Ae. aegypti were collected per household. Ae. aegypti abundance outdoors was higher in lower-income neighborhoods and around older households with larger outdoor areas, greater densities of containers with standing water, less frequent yard maintenance, and greater air-conditioner use. We also found that Ae. aegypti abundance indoors was higher in households that had less window and door screening, less air-conditioner usage, more potted plants indoors, more rain-exposed containers around the home, and lower neighborhood human population densities. Our results indicate that, in the areas of southern California studied, there are behavioral and socio-demographic determinants of Ae. aegypti abundance, and that low-income households could be at higher risk for exposure to Ae. aegypti biting and potentially greater risk for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya virus transmission if a local outbreak were to occur.

Investigating Male Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Attraction to Different Oviposition Containers Using Various Configurations of the Sound Gravid Aedes Trap

Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus), the primary vectors of the arboviruses dengue virus and Zika virus, continue to expand their global distributions. In efforts to better control such species, several mosquito control programs are investigating the efficacy of rearing and releasing millions of altered male Aedes throughout landscapes to reduce populations and disease transmission risk. Unfortunately, little is known about Ae. aegypti, especially male, dispersal behaviors within urban habitats. We deployed Sound-producing Gravid Aedes Traps (SGATs) in Cairns, northern Australia, to investigate male Ae. aegypti attraction to various oviposition container configurations. The traps were arranged to include: 1) water only, 2) organically infused water, 3) infused water and L3 larvae, 4) infused water and a human-scented lure, and lastly 5) no water or olfactory attractant (dry). Our data suggest that males were more attracted to SGATs representing active larval sites than potential larval sites, but were equally attracted to dry SGATs relative to those containing water and/or infusion. Additionally, we found that female Ae. aegypti were equally attracted to wet SGATs, with or without infusion, but not dry ones. These results suggest that male Ae. aegypti within northern Australia are more attracted to active larval sites and equally attracted to dry containers as wet or infused ones. Additionally, female Ae. aegypti are unlikely to enter dry containers. Such findings contribute to our understanding of potentially attractive features for local and released Ae. aegypti throughout the northern Australian urban landscape.

RC, Perkins TA. Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

Recent years have seen rising incidence of dengue and large outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya, which are all caused by viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In most settings, the primary intervention against Aedes-transmitted viruses is vector control, such as indoor, ultra-low volume (ULV) spraying. Targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) has the potential to more effectively impact Aedes-borne diseases, but its implementation requires careful planning and evaluation. The optimal time to deploy these interventions and their relative epidemiological effects are, however, not well understood. We used an agent-based model of dengue virus transmission calibrated to data from Iquitos, Peru to assess the epidemiological effects of these interventions under differing strategies for deploying them. Specifically, we compared strategies where spray application was initiated when incidence rose above a threshold based on incidence in recent years to strategies where spraying occurred at the same time(s) each year. In the absence of spraying, the model predicted 361,000 infections [inter-quartile range (IQR): 347,000-383,000] in the period 2000-2010. The ULV strategy with the fewest median infections was spraying twice yearly, in March and October, which led to a median of 172,000 infections [IQR: 158,000-183,000], a 52% reduction from baseline. Compared to spraying once yearly in September, the best threshold-based strategy utilizing ULV had fewer median infections (254,000 vs. 261,000), but required more spraying (351 vs. 274 days). For TIRS, the best strategy was threshold-based, which led to the fewest infections of all strategies tested (9,900; [IQR: 8,720-11,400], a 94% reduction), and required fewer days spraying than the equivalent ULV strategy (280). Although spraying twice each year is likely to avert the most infections, our results indicate that a threshold-based strategy can become an alternative to better balance the translation of spraying effort into impact, particularly if used with a residual insecticide.

Comparing vector and human surveillance strategies to detect arbovirus transmission: A simulation study for Zika virus detection in Puerto Rico

Background

Detecting and monitoring the transmission of arboviruses such as Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus, and chikungunya virus is critical for prevention and control activities. Previous work has compared the ability of different human-focused surveillance strategies to detect ZIKV transmission in U.S. counties where no known transmission had occurred, but whether virological surveillance in mosquitoes could represent an effective surveillance system is unclear.

Objectives

We leveraged a unique set of data from human and virological surveillance in Ae. aegypti during the 2016 ZIKV epidemic in Caguas, Puerto Rico, to compare alternative strategies for detecting and monitoring ZIKV activity.

Methods

We developed a simulation model for mosquito and human surveillance strategies and simulated different transmission scenarios with varying infection rates and mosquito trap densities. We then calculated the expected weekly number of detected infections, the probability of detecting transmission, and the number of tests needed and compared the simulations with observed data from Caguas.

Results

In simulated high transmission scenarios (1 infection per 1,000 people per week), the models demonstrated that both approaches had estimated probabilities of detection of greater than 78%. In simulated low incidence scenarios, vector surveillance had higher sensitivity than human surveillance and sensitivity increased with more traps, more trapping effort, and testing. In contrast, the actual data from Caguas indicated that human virological surveillance was more sensitive than vector virological surveillance during periods of both high and low transmission.

Conclusion

In scenarios where human surveillance is not possible or when transmission intensity is very low, virological surveillance in Ae. aegypti may be able to detect and monitor ZIKV epidemic activity. However, surveillance for humans seeking care for Zika-like symptoms likely provides an equivalent or more sensitive indicator of transmission intensity in most circumstances.

Control of Zika virus and other mosquito-borne viruses is dependent on timely and accurate detection of viral activity. A previous assessment of surveillance strategies for U.S. counties where no known transmission had occurred, found that testing people seeking medical care with signs of Zika virus was a more effective strategy than testing blood donors or pregnant women. An alternative strategy to testing humans is to test the mosquitoes directly for viruses. In this study, we used data from human and mosquito surveillances during the Zika epidemic of 2016 in Caguas, Puerto Rico to compare these strategies for detecting and monitoring Zika virus activity. Using simulation models for human and mosquito surveillance strategies, we examined different transmission scenarios with varying Zika virus infection rates. The results suggest that in high Zika virus transmission scenarios, both approaches effectively identified transmission. In low transmission scenarios, routine mosquito surveillance had the potential for increased sensitivity compared to human-based surveillance. However, resource availability may also be an important factor when considering the most effective approach.

Associations between household environmental factors and immature mosquito abundance in Quetzaltenango, Guatemala

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti-borne diseases are becoming major public health problems in tropical and sub-tropical regions. While socioeconomic status has been associated with larval mosquito abundance, the drivers or possible factors mediating this association, such as environmental factors, are yet to be identified. We examined possible associations between proximity to houses and roads and immature mosquito abundance, and assessed whether these factors and mosquito prevention measures mediated any association between household environmental factors and immature mosquito abundance.

METHODS

We conducted two cross-sectional household container surveys in February-March and November-December, 2017, in urban and rural areas of Quetzaltenango, Guatemala. We used principal components analysis to identify factors from 12 variables to represent the household environment. One factor which included number of rooms in house, electricity, running water, garbage service, cable, television, telephone, latrine, well, and sewer system, was termed "environmental capital." Environmental capital scores ranged from 0 to 5.5. Risk factors analyzed included environmental capital, and distance from nearest house/structure, paved road, and highway. We used Poisson regression to determine associations between distance to nearest house/structure, roads, and highways, and measures of immature mosquito abundance (total larvae, total pupae, and positive containers). Using cubic spline generalized additive models, we assessed non-linear associations between environmental capital and immature mosquito abundance. We then examined whether fumigation, cleaning containers, and distance from the nearest house, road, and highway mediated the relationship between environmental capital and larvae and pupae abundance.

RESULTS

We completed 508 household surveys in February-March, and we revisited 469 households in November-December. Proximity to paved roads and other houses/structures was positively associated with larvae and pupae abundance and mediated the associations between environmental capital and total numbers of larvae/pupae (p ≤ 0.01). Distance to highways was not associated with larval/pupal abundance (p ≥ 0.48). Households with the lowest and highest environmental capital had fewer larvae/pupae than households in the middle range (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence that proximity to other houses and paved roads was associated with greater abundance of larvae and pupae. Understanding risk factors such as these can allow for improved targeting of surveillance and vector control measures in areas considered at higher risk for arbovirus transmission.

The basic reproductive number for disease systems with multiple coupled heterogeneities

In mathematical epidemiology, a well-known formula describes the impact of heterogeneity on the basic reproductive number, R₀, for situations in which transmission is separable and for which there is one source of variation in susceptibility and one source of variation in infectiousness. This formula is written in terms of the magnitudes of the heterogeneities, as quantified by their coefficients of variation, and the correlation between them. A natural question to ask is whether analogous results apply when there are multiple sources of variation in susceptibility and/or infectiousness. In this paper we demonstrate that with three or more coupled heterogeneities, R₀ under separable transmission depends on details of the distribution of the heterogeneities in a way that is not seen in the well-known simpler situation. We provide explicit formulae for the cases of multivariate normal and multivariate log-normal distributions, showing that R₀ can again be expressed in terms of the magnitudes of the heterogeneities and the pairwise correlations between them. The formulae, however, differ between the two multivariate distributions, demonstrating that no formula of this type applies generally when there are three or more coupled heterogeneities. We see that the results of the formulae are approximately equal when heterogeneities are relatively small and show that an earlier result in the literature (Koella, 1991) should be viewed in this light. We provide numerical illustrations of our results and discuss a setting in which coupled heterogeneities are likely to have a major impact on the value of R₀. We also describe a rather surprising result: in a system with three heterogeneities, R₀ can exhibit non-monotonic behavior with increasing levels of heterogeneity, in marked contrast to the familiar two heterogeneity setting in which R₀ either increases or decreases with increasing heterogeneity.

Fine-scale modelling finds that breeding site fragmentation can reduce mosquito population persistence

Fine-scale geographic variation in the transmission intensity of mosquito-borne diseases is primarily caused by variation in the density of female adult mosquitoes. Therefore, an understanding of fine-scale mosquito population dynamics is critical to understanding spatial heterogeneity in disease transmission and persistence at those scales. However, mathematical models of dengue and malaria transmission, which consider the dynamics of mosquito larvae, generally do not account for the fragmented structure of larval breeding sites. Here, we develop a stochastic metapopulation model of mosquito population dynamics and explore the impact of accounting for breeding site fragmentation when modelling fine-scale mosquito population dynamics. We find that, when mosquito population densities are low, fragmentation can lead to a reduction in population size, with population persistence dependent on mosquito dispersal and features of the underlying landscape. We conclude that using non-spatial models to represent fine-scale mosquito population dynamics may substantially underestimate the stochastic volatility of those populations.

Trap Location and Premises Condition Influences on Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Catches Using Biogents Sentinel Traps During a 'Rear and Release' Program: Implications for Designing Surveillance Programs

As the incidence of arboviral diseases such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever increases globally, controlling their primary vector, Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae), is of greater importance than ever before. Mosquito control programs rely heavily on effective adult surveillance to ensure methodological efficacy. The Biogents Sentinel (BGS) trap is the gold standard for surveilling adult Aedes mosquitoes and is commonly deployed worldwide, including during modern 'rear and release' programs. Despite its extensive use, few studies have directly assessed environmental characteristics that affect BGS trap catches, let alone how these influences change during 'rear and release' programs. We assessed male and female Ae. aegypti spatial stability, as well as premises condition and trap location influences on BGS trap catches, as part of Debug Innisfail 'rear and release' program in northern Australia. We found similar trends in spatial stability of male and female mosquitoes at both weekly and monthly resolutions. From surveillance in locations where no males were released, reduced catches were found at premises that contained somewhat damaged houses and unscreened properties. In addition, when traps were located in areas that were unsheltered, more than 10 m from commonly used sitting areas or more visually complex catches were also negatively affected. In locations where males were released, we found that traps in treatment sites, relative to control sites, displayed increased catches in heavily shaded premises and were inconsistently influenced by differences in house sets and building materials. Such findings have valuable implications for a range of Ae. aegypti surveillance programs.

Reducing contamination risk in cluster-randomized infectious disease-intervention trials

Background

Infectious disease interventions are increasingly tested using cluster-randomized trials (CRTs). These trial settings tend to involve a set of sampling units, such as villages, whose geographic arrangement may present a contamination risk in treatment exposure. The most widely used approach for reducing contamination in these settings is the so-called fried-egg design, which excludes the outer portion of all available clusters from the primary trial analysis. However, the fried-egg design ignores potential intra-cluster spatial heterogeneity and makes the outcome measure inherently less precise. Whereas the fried-egg design may be appropriate in specific settings, alternative methods to optimize the design of CRTs in other settings are lacking.

Methods

We present a novel approach for CRT design that either fully includes or fully excludes available clusters in a defined study region, recognizing the potential for intra-cluster spatial heterogeneity. The approach includes an algorithm that allows investigators to identify the maximum number of clusters that could be included for a defined study region and maintain randomness in both the selection of included clusters and the allocation of clusters to either the treatment group or control group. The approach was applied to the design of a CRT testing the effectiveness of malaria vector-control interventions in southern Malawi.

Conclusions

Those planning CRTs to evaluate interventions should consider the approach presented here during trial design. The approach provides a novel framework for reducing the risk of contamination among the CRT randomization units in settings where investigators determine the reduction of contamination risk as a high priority and where intra-cluster spatial heterogeneity is likely. By maintaining randomness in the allocation of clusters to either the treatment group or control group, the approach also permits a randomization-valid test of the primary trial hypothesis.

Aedes Mosquito Infestation in Socioeconomically Contrasting Neighborhoods of Panama City

The global expansion and proliferation of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus represents a growing public health threat due to their capacity to transmit a variety of arboviruses to humans, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. Particularly important in urban regions, where these species have evolved to breed in man-made containers and feed nearly exclusively on human hosts, the threat of vector-borne disease has risen in recent decades due to the growth of cities, progression of climate change, and increase in globalization. While the dynamics of Aedes populations in urban settings have been well studied in relation to ecological features of the landscape, relatively less is known about the relationship between neighborhood socioeconomic status and Aedes infestation. Here, we compare infestation levels of both A. aegypti and A. albopictus in four socioeconomically contrasting neighborhoods of urban Panama City, Panama. Our results indicate that infestation levels for both Aedes species vary between neighborhoods of contrasting socioeconomic status, being higher in neighborhoods having lower percentage of residents with bachelor degrees and lower monthly household income. Additionally, we find that proximity between socioeconomically contrasting neighborhoods can predict infestation levels by species, with A. aegypti increasing and A. albopictus decreasing with proximity between neighborhoods. These findings hold key implications for the control and prevention of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Panama, a region with ongoing arbovirus outbreaks and high economic inequity.

Estimating absolute indoor density of Aedes aegypti using removal sampling

BACKGROUND

Quantification of adult Aedes aegypti abundance indoors has relied on estimates of relative density (e.g. number of adults per unit of sampling or time), most commonly using traps or timed collections using aspirators. The lack of estimates of the sensitivity of collections and lack of a numerical association between relative and the absolute density of adult Ae. aegypti represent a significant gap in vector surveillance. Here, we describe the use of sequential removal sampling to estimate absolute numbers of indoor resting Ae. aegypti and to calculate calibration coefficients for timed Prokopack aspirator collections in the city of Merida, Yucatan State, Mexico. The study was performed in 200 houses that were selected based on recent occurrence of Aedes-borne viral illness in residents. Removal sampling occurred in 10-minute sampling rounds performed sequentially until no Ae. aegypti adult was collected for 3 hours or over 2 consecutive 10-minute periods.

RESULTS

A total of 3439 Ae. aegypti were collected. The sensitivity of detection of positive houses in the first sampling round was 82.5% for any adult Ae. aegypti, 78.5% for females, 75.5% for males and 73.3% for blood-fed females. The total number of Ae. aegypti per house was on average ~5 times higher than numbers collected for the first sampling round. There was a positive linear relationship between the relative density of Ae. aegypti collected during the first 10-min round and the absolute density for all adult metrics. Coefficients from the linear regression were used to calibrate numbers from 10-min collections into estimates of absolute indoor Ae. aegypti density for all adults, females and males.

CONCLUSIONS

Exhaustive removal sampling represents a promising method for quantification of absolute indoor Ae. aegypti density, leading to improved entomological estimates of mosquito distribution, a key measure in the assessments of the risk pathogen transmission, disease modeling and the evaluation of vector control interventions.

Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru

During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally.

Estimation of DENV-2 Transmission as a Function of Site-Specific Entomological Parameters from Three Cities in Colombia

Background:

Measuring dengue virus transmission in endemic areas is a difficult task as many variables drive transmission, and often are not independent of one another.

Objectives:

We aimed to determine the utility of vectorial capacity to explain the observed dengue infection rates in three hyperendemic cities in Colombia, and tested hypotheses related to three variables: mosquito density, effective vector competence, and biting rate.

Methods:

We estimated two of the most influential entomological variables related to cumulative vectorial capacity, which is a modification of the traditional vectorial capacity equation, of three Colombian mosquito populations. Laboratory studies were undertaken to measure vector competence and man biting rate of local mosquito populations. In addition, the assessment of cumulative vectorial capacity also incorporated site-specific estimations of mosquito density and the probability of daily survival from previous studies conducted in those cities.

Findings:

We found that the biting rates and mosquito infection rates differed among populations of mosquitoes from these three cities, resulting in differences in the site-specific measures of transmission potential. Specifically, we found that using site-specific entomological measures to populate the cumulative vectorial capacity equation was best at recapitulating observed mosquito infection rates when mosquito density was discounted compared to when we incorporated site-specific density measures.

Conclusions:

Specific mosquito-biting rate is likely sufficient to explain transmission differences in these three cities, confirming that this parameter is a critical parameter when predicting and assessing dengue transmission in three Colombian cities with different field observed transmission patterns.

Biased efficacy estimates in phase-III dengue vaccine trials due to heterogeneous exposure and differential detectability of primary infections across trial arms

Vaccine efficacy (VE) estimates are crucial for assessing the suitability of dengue vaccine candidates for public health implementation, but efficacy trials are subject to a known bias to estimate VE toward the null if heterogeneous exposure is not accounted for in the analysis of trial data. In light of many well-characterized sources of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, our goal was to estimate the potential magnitude of this bias in VE estimates for a hypothetical dengue vaccine. To ensure that we realistically modeled heterogeneous exposure, we simulated city-wide DENV transmission and vaccine trial protocols using an agent-based model calibrated with entomological and epidemiological data from long-term field studies in Iquitos, Peru. By simulating a vaccine with a true VE of 0.8 in 1,000 replicate trials each designed to attain 90% power, we found that conventional methods underestimated VE by as much as 21% due to heterogeneous exposure. Accounting for the number of exposures in the vaccine and placebo arms eliminated this bias completely, and the more realistic option of including a frailty term to model exposure as a random effect reduced this bias partially. We also discovered a distinct bias in VE estimates away from the null due to lower detectability of primary DENV infections among seronegative individuals in the vaccinated group. This difference in detectability resulted from our assumption that primary infections in vaccinees who are seronegative at baseline resemble secondary infections, which experience a shorter window of detectable viremia due to a quicker immune response. This resulted in an artefactual finding that VE estimates for the seronegative group were approximately 1% greater than for the seropositive group. Simulation models of vaccine trials that account for these factors can be used to anticipate the extent of bias in field trials and to aid in their interpretation.

A Novel Sampling Method to Measure Socioeconomic Drivers of Aedes Albopictus Distribution in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina

Climate change, urbanization, and globalization have facilitated the spread of Aedes mosquitoes into regions that were previously unsuitable, causing an increased threat of arbovirus transmission on a global scale. While numerous studies have addressed the urban ecology of Ae. albopictus, few have accounted for socioeconomic factors that affect their range in urban regions. Here we introduce an original sampling design for Ae. albopictus, that uses a spatial optimization process to identify urban collection sites based on both geographic parameters as well as the gradient of socioeconomic variables present in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, encompassing the city of Charlotte, a rapidly growing urban environment. We collected 3,645 specimens of Ae. albopictus (87% of total samples) across 12 weeks at the 90 optimized site locations and modelled the relationships between the abundance of gravid Ae. albopictus and a variety of neighborhood socioeconomic attributes as well as land cover characteristics. Our results demonstrate that the abundance of gravid Ae. albopictus is inversely related to the socioeconomic status of the neighborhood and directly related to both landscape heterogeneity as well as proportions of particular resident races/ethnicities. We present our results alongside a description of our novel sampling scheme and its usefulness as an approach to urban vector epidemiology. Additionally, we supply recommendations for future investigations into the socioeconomic determinants of vector-borne disease risk.

Efficacy of Aedes aegypti control by indoor Ultra Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in Iquitos, Peru

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti is a primary vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and urban yellow fever viruses. Indoor, ultra low volume (ULV) space spraying with pyrethroid insecticides is the main approach used for Ae. aegypti emergency control in many countries. Given the widespread use of this method, the lack of large-scale experiments or detailed evaluations of municipal spray programs is problematic.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Two experimental evaluations of non-residual, indoor ULV pyrethroid spraying were conducted in Iquitos, Peru. In each, a central sprayed sector was surrounded by an unsprayed buffer sector. In 2013, spray and buffer sectors included 398 and 765 houses, respectively. Spraying reduced the mean number of adults captured per house by ~83 percent relative to the pre-spray baseline survey. In the 2014 experiment, sprayed and buffer sectors included 1,117 and 1,049 houses, respectively. Here, the sprayed sector's number of adults per house was reduced ~64 percent relative to baseline. Parity surveys in the sprayed sector during the 2014 spray period indicated an increase in the proportion of very young females. We also evaluated impacts of a 2014 citywide spray program by the local Ministry of Health, which reduced adult populations by ~60 percent. In all cases, adult densities returned to near-baseline levels within one month.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results demonstrate that densities of adult Ae. aegypti can be reduced by experimental and municipal spraying programs. The finding that adult densities return to approximately pre-spray densities in less than a month is similar to results from previous, smaller scale experiments. Our results demonstrate that ULV spraying is best viewed as having a short-term entomological effect. The epidemiological impact of ULV spraying will need evaluation in future trials that measure capacity of insecticide spraying to reduce human infection or disease.

Calling in sick: impacts of fever on intra-urban human mobility

Pathogens inflict a wide variety of disease manifestations on their hosts, yet the impacts of disease on the behaviour of infected hosts are rarely studied empirically and are seldom accounted for in mathematical models of transmission dynamics. We explored the potential impacts of one of the most common disease manifestations, fever, on a key determinant of pathogen transmission, host mobility, in residents of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We did so by comparing two groups of febrile individuals (dengue-positive and dengue-negative) with an afebrile control group. A retrospective, semi-structured interview allowed us to quantify multiple aspects of mobility during the two-week period preceding each interview. We fitted nested models of each aspect of mobility to data from interviews and compared models using likelihood ratio tests to determine whether there were statistically distinguishable differences in mobility attributable to fever or its aetiology. Compared with afebrile individuals, febrile study participants spent more time at home, visited fewer locations, and, in some cases, visited locations closer to home and spent less time at certain types of locations. These multifaceted impacts are consistent with the possibility that disease-mediated changes in host mobility generate dynamic and complex changes in host contact network structure.

Community participation in mosquito breeding site control: an interdisciplinary mixed methods study in Curaçao

BACKGROUND

As the arboviral diseases dengue, chikungunya and Zika emerge in the Americas, so does the need for sustainable vector control policies. To successfully achieve mosquito control, joint efforts of both communities and governments are essential. This study investigates this important, but by-and-large neglected topic.

METHODS

In June and July 2015, a cross-sectional mixed methods study applying a survey questionnaire (response rate of 82.5%; n = 339), in-depth interviews (n = 20) and focus group discussions (n = 7; 50 participants) was performed in Curaçao. The study was designed based on an integrated theoretical framework of the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

RESULTS

Participants showed a good knowledge of, and a high-level performance of mosquito breeding site control (MBSC) practices. Personal protection against mosquitoes (e.g. topical repellents) was perceived as relatively less effective thus practiced to lower extent compared to MBSC practices (i.e. larval source management). A lower intention to perform MBSC was independently associated with: (i) satisfaction on governmental MBSC (P = 0.012); (ii) barriers to perform MBSC practices, i.e. 'Government doesn't control other breeding sites' (P = 0.005), 'Don't know how to control breeding sites' (P = 0.041), and 'a mosquito does not transmit dengue' (P = 0.016), (iii) attitudes towards MBSC (P = 0.001) and self-efficacy (person's perceived ability to act) to perform MBSC (P = 0.002). Mixed-methods evidence highlights three possible ways of improving community participation in MBSC. First, it highlights the need for ongoing media coverage, targeting (i) communities' perceptions on transmission routes of dengue and chikungunya, and (ii) presence of car tires in yards. Secondly, it shows that promotion of governmental activities in MBSC can enhance MBSC of communities, if people develop a sense of responsibility to perform MBSC at their own properties. Thirdly, this study describes the presence of key persons in communities, who could be engaged in mosquito control policies to improve MBSC in neighbourhoods.

CONCLUSION

This study reveals gaps between policy and communities' lived realities. These gaps might be overcome with the proposed interventions, resulting in a higher performance of MBSC in the community in Curaçao. Furthermore, this study shows how interdisciplinary mixed methods research can provide important, comprehensive, and in-depth insights to inform mosquito control policies.

Deltamethrin resistance in Aedes aegypti results in treatment failure in Merida, Mexico

The operational impact of deltamethrin resistance on the efficacy of indoor insecticide applications to control Aedes aegypti was evaluated in Merida, Mexico. A randomized controlled trial quantified the efficacy of indoor residual spraying (IRS) against adult Ae. aegypti in houses treated with either deltamethrin (to which local Ae. aegypti expressed a high degree of resistance) or bendiocarb (to which local Ae. aegypti were fully susceptible) as compared to untreated control houses. All adult Ae. aegypti infestation indices during 3 months post-spraying were significantly lower in houses treated with bendiocarb compared to untreated houses (odds ratio <0.75; incidence rate ratio < 0.65) whereas no statistically significant difference was detected between the untreated and the deltamethrin-treated houses. On average, bendiocarb spraying reduced Ae. aegypti abundance by 60% during a 3-month period. Results demonstrate that vector control efficacy can be significantly compromised when the insecticide resistance status of Ae. aegypti populations is not taken into consideration.

The relationship between entomological indicators of Aedes aegypti abundance and dengue virus infection

Routine entomological monitoring data are used to quantify the abundance of Ae. aegypti. The public health utility of these indicators is based on the assumption that greater mosquito abundance increases the risk of human DENV transmission, and therefore reducing exposure to the vector decreases incidence of infection. Entomological survey data from two longitudinal cohort studies in Iquitos, Peru, linked with 8,153 paired serological samples taken approximately six months apart were analyzed. Indicators of Ae. aegypti density were calculated from cross-sectional and longitudinal entomological data collected over a 12-month period for larval, pupal and adult Ae. aegypti. Log binomial models were used to estimate risk ratios (RR) to measure the association between Ae. aegypti abundance and the six-month risk of DENV seroconversion. RRs estimated using cross-sectional entomological data were compared to RRs estimated using longitudinal data. Higher cross-sectional Ae. aegypti densities were not associated with an increased risk of DENV seroconversion. Use of longitudinal entomological data resulted in RRs ranging from 1.01 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.46) for adult stage density estimates and RRs ranging from 1.21 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.37) to 1.75 (95% CI: 1.23, 2.5) for categorical immature indices. Ae. aegypti densities calculated from longitudinal entomological data were associated with DENV seroconversion, whereas those measured cross-sectionally were not. Ae. aegypti indicators calculated from cross-sectional surveillance, as is common practice, have limited public health utility in detecting areas or populations at high risk of DENV infection.

Indoor Resting Behavior of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Acapulco, Mexico

The markedly anthropophilic and endophilic behaviors of Aedes aegypti (L.) make it a very efficient vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Although a large body of research has investigated the immature habitats and conditions for adult emergence, relatively few studies have focused on the indoor resting behavior and distribution of vectors within houses. We investigated the resting behavior of Ae. aegypti indoors in 979 houses of the city of Acapulco, Mexico, by performing exhaustive indoor mosquito collections to describe the rooms and height at which mosquitoes were found resting. In total, 1,403 adult and 747 female Ae. aegypti were collected, primarily indoors (98% adults and 99% females). Primary resting locations included bedrooms (44%), living rooms (25%), and bathrooms (20%), followed by kitchens (9%). Aedes aegypti significantly rested below 1.5 m of height (82% adults, 83% females, and 87% bloodfed females); the odds of finding adult Ae. aegypti mosquitoes below 1.5 m was 17 times higher than above 1.5 m. Our findings provide relevant information for the design of insecticide-based interventions selectively targeting the adult resting population, such as indoor residual spraying.

Changing paradigms in Aedes control: considering the spatial heterogeneity of dengue transmission

Current dengue vector control strategies, focusing on reactive implementation of insecticide-based interventions in response to clinically apparent disease manifestations, tend to be inefficient, short-lived, and unsustainable within the worldwide epidemiological scenario of virus epidemic recrudescence. As a result of a series of expert meetings and deliberations, a paradigm shift is occurring and a new strategy, using risk stratification at the city level in order to concentrate proactive, sustained efforts in areas at high risk for transmission, has emerged. In this article, the authors 1) outline this targeted, proactive intervention strategy, within the context of dengue epidemiology, the dynamics of its transmission, and current Aedes control strategies, and 2) provide support from published literature for the need to empirically test its impact on dengue transmission as well as on the size of disease outbreaks. As chikungunya and Zika viruses continue to expand their range, the need for a science-based, proactive approach for control of urban Aedes spp. mosquitoes will become a central focus of integrated disease management planning.

Combining contact tracing with targeted indoor residual spraying significantly reduces dengue transmission

The widespread transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), coupled with the alarming increase of birth defects and neurological disorders associated with Zika virus, has put the world in dire need of more efficacious tools for Aedes aegypti-borne disease mitigation. We quantitatively investigated the epidemiological value of location-based contact tracing (identifying potential out-of-home exposure locations by phone interviews) to infer transmission foci where high-quality insecticide applications can be targeted. Space-time statistical modeling of data from a large epidemic affecting Cairns, Australia, in 2008-2009 revealed a complex pattern of transmission driven primarily by human mobility (Cairns accounted for ~60% of virus transmission to and from residents of satellite towns, and 57% of all potential exposure locations were nonresidential). Targeted indoor residual spraying with insecticides in potential exposure locations reduced the probability of future DENV transmission by 86 to 96%, compared to unsprayed premises. Our findings provide strong evidence for the effectiveness of combining contact tracing with residual spraying within a developed urban center, and should be directly applicable to areas with similar characteristics (for example, southern USA, Europe, or Caribbean countries) that need to control localized Aedes-borne virus transmission or to protect pregnant women's homes in areas with active Zika transmission. Future theoretical and empirical research should focus on evaluation of the applicability and scalability of this approach to endemic areas with variable population size and force of DENV infection.