Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems

Assessment of spatial distribution of organic contaminants and metallic compounds on a tropical island' coral reef fish communities

The New Caledonian archipelago is an important hotspot of marine biodiversity. Due to mining activities, urbanization, and industrialization, significant amounts of contaminants are discharged into the lagoon. This study analysed the concentrations, spatial distribution, and potential drivers of 14 metallic compounds and trace elements (MTEs) and 22 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in ~400 coral reef fish sampled from various sites around New Caledonia, across a gradient from mining centers to remote, uninhabited locations. Boosted regression trees modelling explained between 61 and 86 % of the global variation in MTEs and POPs concentration. Fish body size emerged as the most important correlate of MTEs and POPs concentrations in coral reef fish. Monthly rainfalls were the second most important variable for POPs, whereas the reef area was the second variable explaining MTE concentrations. Our modelling approach allowed us to predict and map the distribution of concentrations at the fish community level for 17 contaminants (9 MTEs and 8 POPs). Predicted concentrations ranged from ~1.5 ng.g-1 (β-endosulfan) to ~11.5 μg.g-1 (Ni), and revealed a widespread contamination throughout the lagoon, from the coast to the barrier reef. Contamination by mining-related elements (Ni, Cr…) were clearly influenced by the surface area of mining registry and to lithology to a lesser extent, whereas Hg contamination strongly depended on biological variables. Our study is the largest of its kind at the archipelago scale, combining data on 36 contaminants in ~400 fish samples with a modelling framework offering insights into underlying processes and spatial data for policy use.

Widespread presence of metallic compounds and organic contaminants across Pacific coral reef fish

Coral reef fishes represent an invaluable source of macro- and micro-nutrients for tropical coastal populations. However, several potentially toxic compounds may jeopardize their contribution to food security. Concentrations of metallic compounds and trace elements (MTEs), and persistent organic pollutants (POPs, including pesticides and polychlorobiphenyls PCBs), totalizing 36 contaminants, were measured in coral reef fish from several Pacific islands. The objective of this study was to describe the spatial distribution of these compounds and contaminants in order to identify potential variables explaining their distribution at a Pacific-wide scale. To achieve this, we applied Boosted Regression Trees to model species-specific and community-level contaminant and inorganic compound concentrations at the scale of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Overall, using 15 easily accessible explanatory variables, we successfully explained between 60 and 87 % of the global variation, with fish body size being the most important correlate of MTEs and POPs concentrations in reef fish. Our modeling approach allowed us to estimate and map the distribution of the community-level concentration of 19 contaminants and inorganic compounds at the scale of the equatorial and south Pacific Ocean. Spatial patterns varied significantly depending on the compound, with modeled quantities per 100 g of fish flesh generally being higher in the central and southwest Pacific than in the eastern part of the basin. These patterns were influenced by a combination of biological, environmental, anthropogenic and biogeographical variables. Overall, this approach represents an important step toward the estimation of concentrations of the main compounds on the basis of species identity and fishing location. Our results enhance our understanding of the extent of contamination in the Pacific while underscoring the urgent need for long-term and large-scale spatial monitoring of diverse compounds in this region.

Incorporating uncertainty in Indigenous sea Country monitoring with Bayesian statistics: Towards more informed decision-making

Partnerships in marine monitoring combining Traditional Ecological Knowledge and western science are developing globally to improve our understanding of temporal changes in ecological communities that better inform coastal management practices. A fuller communication between scientists and Indigenous partners about the limitations of monitoring results to identify change is essential to the impact of monitoring datasets on decision-making. Here we present a 5-year co-developed case study from a fish monitoring partnership in northwest Australia showing how uncertainty estimated by Bayesian models can be incorporated into monitoring management indicators. Our simulation approach revealed there was high uncertainty in detecting immediate change over the following monitoring year when translated to health performance indicators. Incorporating credibility estimates into health assessments added substantial information to monitoring trends, provided a deeper understanding of monitoring limitations and highlighted the importance of carefully selecting the way we evaluate management performance indicators.

Interplay of management and environmental drivers shifts size structure of reef fish communities

Countries are expanding marine protected area (MPA) networks to mitigate fisheries declines and support marine biodiversity. However, MPA impact evaluations typically assess total fish biomass. Here, we examine how fish biomass disaggregated by adult and juvenile life stages responds to environmental drivers, including sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and human footprint, and multiple management types at 139 reef sites in the Mesoamerican Reef (MAR) region. We found that total fish biomass generally appears stable across the region from 2006 to 2018, with limited rebuilding of fish stocks in MPAs. However, the metric of total fish biomass masked changes in fish community structure, with lower adult than juvenile fish biomass at northern sites, and adult:juvenile ratios closer to 1:1 at southern sites. These shifts were associated with different responses of juvenile and adult fish to environmental drivers and management. Juvenile fish biomass increased at sites with high larval connectivity and coral cover, whereas adult fish biomass decreased at sites with greater human footprint and SST anomalies. Adult fish biomass decreased primarily in Honduran general use zones, which suggests insufficient protection for adult fish in the southern MAR. There was a north-south gradient in management and environmental drivers, with lower coverage of fully protected areas and higher SST anomalies and coastal development in the south that together may undermine the maintenance of adult fish biomass in the southern MAR. Accounting for the interplay between environmental drivers and management in the design of MPAs is critical for increasing fish biomass across life history stages.

Physical, biological and anthropogenic drivers of spatial patterns of coral reef fish assemblages at regional and local scales

Species abundance, diversity and community assemblage structure are determined by multiple physical, habitat and management drivers that operate across multiple spatial scales. Here we used a multi-scale coral reef monitoring dataset to examine regional and local differences in the abundance, species richness and composition of fish assemblages in no-take marine reserve (NTMR) and fished zones at four island groups in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. We applied boosted regression trees to quantify the influence of 20 potential drivers on the coral reef fish assemblages. Reefs in two locations, Magnetic Island and the Keppel Islands, had distinctive fish assemblages and low species richness, while the Palm and Whitsunday Islands had similar species composition and higher species richness. Overall, our analyses identified several important physical (temperature, wave exposure) and biological (coral, turf, macroalgal and unconsolidated substratum cover) drivers of inshore reef fish communities, some of which are being altered by human activities. Of these, sea surface temperature (SST) was more influential at large scales, while wave exposure was important both within and between island groups. Species richness declined with increasing macroalgal cover and exposure to cyclones, and increased with SST. Species composition was most strongly influenced by mean SST and percent cover of macroalgae. There was substantial regional variation in the local drivers of spatial patterns. Although NTMR zoning influenced total fish density in some regions, it had negligible effects on fish species richness, composition and trophic structure because of the relatively small number of species targeted by the fishery. These findings show that inshore reef fishes are directly influenced by disturbances typical of the nearshore Great Barrier Reef, highlighting the need to complement global action on climate change with more targeted localised efforts to maintain or improve the condition of coral reef habitats.

Coral reefs benefit from reduced land-sea impacts under ocean warming

Coral reef ecosystems are being fundamentally restructured by local human impacts and climate-driven marine heatwaves that trigger mass coral bleaching and mortality1. Reducing local impacts can increase reef resistance to and recovery from bleaching2. However, resource managers lack clear advice on targeted actions that best support coral reefs under climate change3 and sector-based governance means most land- and sea-based management efforts remain siloed4. Here we combine surveys of reef change with a unique 20-year time series of land-sea human impacts that encompassed an unprecedented marine heatwave in Hawai'i. Reefs with increased herbivorous fish populations and reduced land-based impacts, such as wastewater pollution and urban runoff, had positive coral cover trajectories predisturbance. These reefs also experienced a modest reduction in coral mortality following severe heat stress compared to reefs with reduced fish populations and enhanced land-based impacts. Scenario modelling indicated that simultaneously reducing land-sea human impacts results in a three- to sixfold greater probability of a reef having high reef-builder cover four years postdisturbance than if either occurred in isolation. International efforts to protect 30% of Earth's land and ocean ecosystems by 2030 are underway5. Our results reveal that integrated land-sea management could help achieve coastal ocean conservation goals and provide coral reefs with the best opportunity to persist in our changing climate.

A contemporary baseline of Madagascar's coral assemblages: Reefs with high coral diversity, abundance, and function associated with marine protected areas

Madagascar is a major hotspot of biodiversity in the Western Indian Ocean, but, as in many other regions, coral reefs surrounding the island confront large-scale disturbances and human-induced local stressors. Conservation actions have been implemented with encouraging results for fisheries, though their benefit on coral assemblages has never been rigorously addressed. In this context, we analyzed the multiscale spatial variation of the composition, generic richness, abundance, life history strategies, and cover of coral assemblages among 18 stations placed at three regions around the island. The potential influences of marine protected areas (MPAs), algal cover, substrate rugosity, herbivorous fish biomass, and geographic location were also analyzed. Our results highlight the marked spatial variability, with variation at either or both regional and local scales for all coral descriptors. The northeast coastal region of Masoala was characterized by the high abundance of coral colonies, most notably of the competitive Acropora and Pocillopora genera and stress-tolerant taxa at several stations. The southwest station of Salary Nord was distinguished by lower abundances, with depauperate populations of competitive taxa. On the northwest coast, Nosy-Be was characterized by higher diversity and abundance as well as by high coral cover (~42-70%) recorded at unfished stations. Results clearly underline the positive effects of MPAs on all but one of the coral descriptors, particularly at Nosy-Be where the highest contrast between fished and unfished stations was observed. Biomass of herbivorous fishes, crustose coralline algae cover, and substrate rugosity were also positively related to several coral descriptors. The occurrence of reefs with high diversity, abundance, and cover of corals, including the competitive Acropora, is a major finding of this study. Our results strongly support the implementation of locally managed marine areas with strong involvement by primary users, particularly to assist in management in countries with reduced logistic and human resources such as Madagascar.

Tissue-Specific and Time-Dependent Expressions of PC4s in Bay Scallop (Argopecten irradians irradians) Reveal Function Allocation in Thermal Response

Transcriptional coactivator p15 (PC4) encodes a structurally conserved but functionally diverse protein that plays crucial roles in RNAP-II-mediated transcription, DNA replication and damage repair. Although structures and functions of PC4 have been reported in most vertebrates and some invertebrates, the PC4 genes were less systematically identified and characterized in the bay scallop Argopecten irradians irradians. In this study, five PC4 genes (AiPC4s) were successfully identified in bay scallops via whole-genome scanning through in silico analysis. Protein structure and phylogenetic analyses of AiPC4s were conducted to determine the identities and evolutionary relationships of these genes. Expression levels of AiPC4s were assessed in embryos/larvae at all developmental stages, in healthy adult tissues and in different tissues (mantles, gills, hemocytes and hearts) being processed under 32 °C stress with different time durations (0 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 3 d, 6 d and 10 d). Spatiotemporal expression profiles of AiPC4s suggested the functional roles of the genes in embryos/larvae at all developmental stages and in healthy adult tissues in bay scallop. Expression regulations (up- and down-) of AiPC4s under high-temperature stress displayed both tissue-specific and time-dependent patterns with function allocations, revealing that AiPC4s performed differentiated functions in response to thermal stress. This work provides clues of molecular function allocation of PC4 in scallops in response to thermal stress and helps in illustrating how marine bivalves resist elevated seawater temperature.

Contingency planning for coral reefs in the Anthropocene; The potential of reef safe havens

Reducing the global reliance on fossil fuels is essential to ensure the long-term survival of coral reefs, but until this happens, alternative tools are required to safeguard their future. One emerging tool is to locate areas where corals are surviving well despite the changing climate. Such locations include refuges, refugia, hotspots of resilience, bright spots, contemporary near-pristine reefs, and hope spots that are collectively named reef 'safe havens' in this mini-review. Safe havens have intrinsic value for reefs through services such as environmental buffering, maintaining near-pristine reef conditions, or housing corals naturally adapted to future environmental conditions. Spatial and temporal variance in physicochemical conditions and exposure to stress however preclude certainty over the ubiquitous long-term capacity of reef safe havens to maintain protective service provision. To effectively integrate reef safe havens into proactive reef management and contingency planning for climate change scenarios, thus requires an understanding of their differences, potential values, and predispositions to stress. To this purpose, I provide a high-level review on the defining characteristics of different coral reef safe havens, how they are being utilised in proactive reef management and what risk and susceptibilities they inherently have. The mini-review concludes with an outline of the potential for reef safe haven habitats to support contingency planning of coral reefs under an uncertain future from intensifying climate change.

A systematic review of artificial reefs as platforms for coral reef research and conservation

Artificial reefs (ARs) have been used on coral reefs for ecological research, conservation, and socio-cultural purposes since the 1980s. We examined spatio-temporal patterns in AR deployment in tropical and subtropical coral reefs (up to 35° latitude) and evaluated their efficacy in meeting conservation objectives, using a systematic review of the scientific literature. Most deployments (136 studies) were in the North Atlantic and Central Indo-Pacific in 1980s – 2000s, with a pronounced shift to the Western Indo-Pacific in 2010s. Use of ARs in reef restoration or stressor mitigation increased markedly in response to accelerating coral decline over the last 2 decades. Studies that evaluated success in meeting conservation objectives (n = 51) commonly reported increasing fish abundance (55%), enhancing habitat quantity (31%) or coral cover (27%), and conserving target species (24%). Other objectives included stressor mitigation (22%), provision of coral nursery habitat (14%) or source populations (2%) and addressing socio-cultural and economic values (16%). Fish (55% of studies) and coral (53%) were the most commonly monitored taxa. Success in achieving conservation objectives was reported in 33 studies. Success rates were highest for provision of nursery habitat and increasing coral cover (each 71%). Increasing fish abundance or habitat quantity, mitigating environmental impacts, and attaining socio-cultural objectives were moderately successful (60–64%); conservation of target species was the least successful (42%). Failure in achieving objectives commonly was attributed to poor AR design or disruption by large-scale bleaching events. The scale of ARs generally was too small (m² –10s m²) to address regional losses in coral cover, and study duration too short (< 5 years) to adequately assess ecologically relevant trends in coral cover and community composition. ARs are mostly likely to aid in reef conservation and restoration by providing nursery habitat for target species or recruitment substrate for corals and other organisms. Promoting local socio-cultural values also has potential for regional or global impact by increasing awareness of coral reef decline, if prioritized and properly monitored.

Twenty years of change in benthic communities across the Belizean Barrier Reef

Disease, storms, ocean warming, and pollution have caused the mass mortality of reef-building corals across the Caribbean over the last four decades. Subsequently, stony corals have been replaced by macroalgae, bacterial mats, and invertebrates including soft corals and sponges, causing changes to the functioning of Caribbean reef ecosystems. Here we describe changes in the absolute cover of benthic reef taxa, including corals, gorgonians, sponges, and algae, at 15 fore-reef sites (12-15m depth) across the Belizean Barrier Reef (BBR) from 1997 to 2016. We also tested whether Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), in which fishing was prohibited but likely still occurred, mitigated these changes. Additionally, we determined whether ocean-temperature anomalies (measured via satellite) or local human impacts (estimated using the Human Influence Index, HII) were related to changes in benthic community structure. We observed a reduction in the cover of reef-building corals, including the long-lived, massive corals Orbicella spp. (from 13 to 2%), and an increase in fleshy and corticated macroalgae across most sites. These and other changes to the benthic communities were unaffected by local protection. The covers of hard-coral taxa, including Acropora spp., Montastraea cavernosa, Orbicella spp., and Porites spp., were negatively related to the frequency of ocean-temperature anomalies. Only gorgonian cover was related, negatively, to our metric of the magnitude of local impacts (HII). Our results suggest that benthic communities along the BBR have experienced disturbances that are beyond the capacity of the current management structure to mitigate. We recommend that managers devote greater resources and capacity to enforcing and expanding existing marine protected areas and to mitigating local stressors, and most importantly, that government, industry, and the public act immediately to reduce global carbon emissions.

Conserved fatty acid profiles and lipid metabolic pathways in a tropical reef fish exposed to ocean warming - An adaptation mechanism of tolerant species?

Climate warming is causing rapid spatial expansion of ocean warm pools from equatorial latitudes towards the subtropics. Sedentary coral reef inhabitants in affected areas will thus be trapped in high temperature regimes, which may become the "new normal". In this study, we used clownfish Amphiprion ocellaris as model organism to study reef fish mechanisms of thermal adaptation and determine how high temperature affects multiple lipid aspects that influence physiology and thermal tolerance. We exposed juvenile fish to two different experimental conditions, implemented over 28 days: average tropical water temperatures (26 °C, control) or average warm pool temperatures (30 °C). We then performed several analyses on fish muscle and liver tissues: i) total lipid content (%), ii) lipid peroxides, iii) fatty acid profiles, iv) lipid metabolic pathways, and v) weight as body condition metric. Results showed that lipid storage capacity in A. ocellaris was not affected by elevated temperature, even in the presence of lipid peroxides in both tissues assessed. Additionally, fatty acid profiles were unresponsive to elevated temperature, and lipid metabolic networks were consequently well conserved. Consistent with these results, we did not observe changes in fish weight at elevated temperature. There were, however, differences in fatty acid profiles between tissue types and over time. Liver showed enhanced α-linolenic and linoleic acid metabolism, which is an important pathway in stress response signaling and modulation on environmental changes. Temporal oscillations in fatty acid profiles are most likely related to intrinsic factors such as growth, which leads to the mobilization of energetic reserves between different tissues throughout time according to organism needs. Based on these results, we propose that the stability of fatty acid profiles and lipid metabolic pathways may be an important thermal adaptation feature of fish exposed to warming environments.

Microplastic exposure interacts with habitat degradation to affect behaviour and survival of juvenile fish in the field

Coral reefs are degrading globally due to increased environmental stressors including warming and elevated levels of pollutants. These stressors affect not only habitat-forming organisms, such as corals, but they may also directly affect the organisms that inhabit these ecosystems. Here, we explore how the dual threat of habitat degradation and microplastic exposure may affect the behaviour and survival of coral reef fish in the field. Fish were caught prior to settlement and pulse-fed polystyrene microplastics six times over 4 days, then placed in the field on live or dead-degraded coral patches. Exposure to microplastics or dead coral led fish to be bolder, more active and stray further from shelter compared to control fish. Effect sizes indicated that plastic exposure had a greater effect on behaviour than degraded habitat, and we found no evidence of synergistic effects. This pattern was also displayed in their survival in the field. Our results highlight that attaining low concentrations of microplastic in the environment will be a useful management strategy, since minimizing microplastic intake by fishes may work concurrently with reef restoration strategies to enhance the resilience of coral reef populations.

Coral community life histories and population dynamics driven by seascape bathymetry and temperature variability

Temperature variability, habitat, coral communities, and fishing intensity are important factors influencing coral responses to climate change. Consequently, chronic and acute sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and their interactions with habitat and fishing were studied along the East African coast (~400km) by evaluating changes over a ~25-year period in two major reef habitats-island and fringing reefs. These habitats had similar mean and standard deviation temperature measurements but differed in that islands had lower ocean heights and flatter and less right-skewed temperature distributions than fringing reefs. These patterns arise because islands are exposed to deep offshore water passing through deep channels while being protected from the open ocean storms and the strong inter-annual current temperature variability. Within these two seascapes, coral communities are shaped by population responses to the variable temperature distributions as determined by the taxa's associations with the competitive-stress-ruderal (CSR) life history groups. For example, competitive taxa were more abundant where temperature distributions were flat and lacked frequent warm water anomalies. In contrast, ruderal, weedy, and generalist taxa were more common where temperature distributions were centralized, standard deviations high, and warm water anomalies more frequent. Finally, stress-resistant taxa were more common in reefs with high temperature skew but flatter temperature distributions. The rare 1998 thermal anomaly impacted and disturbed the ruderal and stressed reef more than the competitive communities. Ruderal became more similar to stressed communities while the stressed community moved further from the mean before recovering towards the competitive community. Competitive taxa were more common on islands and the deeper fringing reef sites while ruderal were dominant in shallow fringing reef lagoons. Over time, islands were less disturbed than fringing reefs and maintained the highest coral cover, numbers of taxa, and most competitive or space-occupying taxa. However, some island reefs with a history of dynamite fishing aligned with the stress-resistant communities over the full study period. Compared to the in situ SST gauges at the study site, temperature proxies with global coverage were often good at estimating mean and standard deviations of the SSTs but much poorer at estimating the shape of the temperature distributions that reflect chronic and acute stress, as reflected by kurtosis and skewness metrics. Given that these stress variables were critical for understanding the impacts of rare climate disturbances, global climate models that use mean conditions are likely to be poor predictors of future impacts on corals, particularly their species and life history composition. Better predictions should be possible if appropriate chronic and acute stress metrics and their proxies are identified and used.

Size-specific recolonization success by coral-dwelling damselfishes moderates resilience to habitat loss

Increasing degradation of coral reef ecosystems and specifically, loss of corals is causing significant and widespread declines in the abundance of coral reef fishes, but the proximate cause(s) of these declines are largely unknown. Here, we examine specific responses to host coral mortality for three species of coral-dwelling damselfishes (Dascyllus aruanus, D. reticulatus, and Pomacentrus moluccensis), explicitly testing whether these fishes can successfully move and recolonize nearby coral hosts. Responses of fishes to localized coral loss was studied during population irruptions of coral feeding crown-of-thorns starfish, where starfish consumed 29 (34%) out of 85 coral colonies, of which 25 (86%) were occupied by coral-dwelling damselfishes. Damselfishes were not tagged or individually recognizable, but changes in the colonization of different coral hosts was assessed by carefully assessing the number and size of fishes on every available coral colony. Most damselfishes (> 90%) vacated dead coral hosts within 5 days, and either disappeared entirely (presumed dead) or relocated to nearby coral hosts. Displaced fishes only ever colonized corals already occupied by other coral-dwelling damselfishes (mostly conspecifics) and colonization success was strongly size-dependent. Despite movement of damselfishes to surviving corals, the local abundance of coral-dependent damselfishes declined in approximate accordance with the proportional loss of coral habitat. These results suggest that even if alternative coral hosts are locally abundant, there are significant biological constraints on movement of coral-dwelling damselfishes and recolonization of alternative coral habitats, such that localized persistence of habitat patches during moderate or patchy disturbances do not necessarily provide resilience against overall habitat loss.

Climatic and local stressor interactions threaten tropical forests and coral reefs

Tropical forests and coral reefs host a disproportionately large share of global biodiversity and provide ecosystem functions and services used by millions of people. Yet, ongoing climate change is leading to an increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events in the tropics, which, in combination with other local human disturbances, is leading to unprecedented negative ecological consequences for tropical forests and coral reefs. Here, we provide an overview of how and where climate extremes are affecting the most biodiverse ecosystems on Earth and summarize how interactions between global, regional and local stressors are affecting tropical forest and coral reef systems through impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. We also discuss some key challenges and opportunities to promote mitigation and adaptation to a changing climate at local and global scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Effects of SCUBA bubbles on counts of roving piscivores in a large remote marine protected area

This study examined the effects of SCUBA bubbles on fish counts in underwater visual surveys conducted in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM). Specifically, paired fish surveys were conducted at each survey site, utilizing two different gear types: open-circuit SCUBA (OC) and closed-circuit rebreather (CCR). Bubble exhaust released from the OC equipment is a potential source of bias for in-situ fish observations, as the associated audio and visual disturbances could either attract or repel fishes depending on whether their behavior is more driven by curiosity or caution. The study area, is a large (~1.5 million km²) and extremely remote marine protected area in which the response of coral reef fishes to divers represent natural behavior of naive fishes with little or no previous contact with humans. Historically, surveys conducted on OC in this area have shown an abundance of large roving piscivores and this study set out to determine the extant, if any, the audible and visual disturbances of OC bubbles have. The species typically seen in these prior surveys were Caranx ignobilis, Caranx melampygus, Aprion virescens, and a couple of species of sharks. We found differences in counts for some roving piscivores, including significantly more jacks observed on OC than CCR (Caranx ignobilis 57% more, and Caranx melampygus 113% more). Instance of first encounter, i.e. the time when a fish was first observed during a survey, also varied for some species. Higher numbers of Aprion virescens (p = 0.04), and C. melampygus (p = <0.001) were observed in the first 5-minutes of counts by divers on OC (i.e. when they were using breathing apparatus that produced noises that could be heard over long distances). Although not the focus of the study, we also assessed differences between OC and CCR counts for other groups of fishes. Estimated abundance of benthic damselfish was higher on OC than CCR, and counts of butterflyfish were lower on OC; but there were no significant differences for the other groups considered. This is an important control study that documents the natural responses of coral reef fishes to SCUBA bubbles generated by in-situ surveys.

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

Quarterly variability of floating plastic debris in the marine protected area of the Menorca Channel (Spain)

Plastic pollution is widespread in all the oceans and seas, representing a significant threat to most of their ecosystems even in marine protected areas (MPAs). This study determines the floating plastic distribution in four different periods between 2014 and 2015 in the recently approved Menorca Channel MPA (Balearic Islands). Plastic debris were persistent during all sampling periods on the surface of the Channel, composed mainly by the microplastic sizes. Average particle abundances ranged from 138,293 items⋅km^-2 in autumn to 347,793 items⋅km^-2 during the spring, while weight densities varied from 458.15 g(DW)⋅km^-2 in winter to 2016.67 g(DW)⋅km^-2 in summer. Rigid plastics were the most frequent particles in all the periods analysed (from 89.40%-winter to 94.54%-spring). The high-resolution and particle distribution models corroborated that the oceanographic variability shapes different patterns of presence of plastics, and in particular the existence of areas with almost no plastics.

Thermal stress induces persistently altered coral reef fish assemblages

Ecological communities are reorganizing in response to warming temperatures. For continuous ocean habitats this reorganization is characterized by large-scale species redistribution, but for tropical discontinuous habitats such as coral reefs, spatial isolation coupled with strong habitat dependence of fish species imply that turnover and local extinctions are more significant mechanisms. In these systems, transient marine heatwaves are causing coral bleaching and profoundly altering habitat structure, yet despite severe bleaching events becoming more frequent and projections indicating annual severe bleaching by the 2050s at most reefs, long-term effects on the diversity and structure of fish assemblages remain unclear. Using a 23-year time series spanning a thermal stress event, we describe and model structural changes and recovery trajectories of fish communities after mass bleaching. Communities changed fundamentally, with the new emergent communities dominated by herbivores and persisting for >15 years, a period exceeding realized and projected intervals between thermal stress events on coral reefs. Reefs which shifted to macroalgal states had the lowest species richness and highest compositional dissimilarity, whereas reefs where live coral recovered exceeded prebleaching fish richness, but remained dissimilar to prebleaching compositions. Given realized and projected frequencies of bleaching events, our results show that fish communities historically associated with coral reefs will not re-establish, requiring substantial adaptation by managers and resource users.

Seabird nutrient subsidies alter patterns of algal abundance and fish biomass on coral reefs following a bleaching event

Cross-ecosystem nutrient subsidies play a key role in the structure and dynamics of recipient communities, but human activities are disrupting these links. Because nutrient subsidies may also enhance community stability, the effects of losing these inputs may be exacerbated in the face of increasing climate-related disturbances. Nutrients from seabirds nesting on oceanic islands enhance the productivity and functioning of adjacent coral reefs, but it is unknown whether these subsidies affect the response of coral reefs to mass bleaching events or whether the benefits of these nutrients persist following bleaching. To answer these questions, we surveyed benthic organisms and fishes around islands with seabirds and nearby islands without seabirds due to the presence of invasive rats. Surveys were conducted in the Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean, immediately before the 2015-2016 mass bleaching event and, in 2018, two years following the bleaching event. Regardless of the presence of seabirds, relative coral cover declined by 32%. However, there was a post-bleaching shift in benthic community structure around islands with seabirds, which did not occur around islands with invasive rats, characterized by increases in two types of calcareous algae (crustose coralline algae [CCA] and Halimeda spp.). All feeding groups of fishes were positively affected by seabirds, but only herbivores and piscivores were unaffected by the bleaching event and sustained the greatest difference in biomass between islands with seabirds versus those with invasive rats. By contrast, corallivores and planktivores, both of which are coral-dependent, experienced the greatest losses following bleaching. Even though seabird nutrients did not enhance community-wide resistance to bleaching, they may still promote recovery of these reefs through their positive influence on CCA and herbivorous fishes. More broadly, the maintenance of nutrient subsidies, via strategies including eradication of invasive predators, may be important in shaping the response of ecological communities to global climate change.

Does trophic level drive organic and metallic contamination in coral reef organisms?

Metallic and organic pollutants constitute a serious threat for coral reef ecosystems, potentially affecting a great number of species interacting within complex trophodynamic processes. Pesticides, PCBs and trace elements were measured on coral reef communities of three Pacific islands (Moorea, Wallis and New Caledonia) in relation with δ¹⁵N values, a proxy of trophic level. Several potential sources of organic matter, benthic invertebrates and fish belonging to various trophic strategies were sampled at each island. Wallis and New Caledonia displayed, respectively, the highest concentrations of pesticides and trace elements. In the three islands, most trace element concentrations (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and V) decreased when δ¹⁵N was rising (i.e. bioreduction), whereas Hg and Se biomagnified with increasing δ¹⁵N values. Only few trace elements in some islands did not show any significant trend in relation with δ¹⁵N (i.e., Ag in New Caledonia, Zn in Wallis and As plus Zn in Moorea). PCBs concentrations showed a significant bioreduction in New Caledonia and in Moorea, but a significant biomagnification in Wallis. Aldrin and heptachlor were the only pesticides to show a similar significant bioreduction in the three islands. Other pesticides, such as chlordecone, diazinon, endosulfan I and II, heptachlor-epoxide A and B, lindane and pp'-DDE displayed contrasted patterns (e.g. chlordecone significantly biomagnified in New Caledonia, significantly bioreduced in Wallis and did not displayed any significant trend in Moorea). Finally, for unclear reasons, Moorea displayed only negative significant correlations between δ¹⁵N and all pesticides (except pp'-DDT). Our results highlight that trophic level, here assessed through δ¹⁵N values, is a good predictor of metallic trace elements biomagnification or bioreduction in coral reef organisms. However, at large spatial scale, trophic level relevance to predict pesticides and PCBs biomagnification or bioreduction should be considered with caution and studied in close relation with local characteristics.

The future of resilience-based management in coral reef ecosystems

Resilience underpins the sustainability of both ecological and social systems. Extensive loss of reef corals following recent mass bleaching events have challenged the notion that support of system resilience is a viable reef management strategy. While resilience-based management (RBM) cannot prevent the damaging effects of major disturbances, such as mass bleaching events, it can support natural processes that promote resistance and recovery. Here, we review the potential of RBM to help sustain coral reefs in the 21st century. We explore the scope for supporting resilience through existing management approaches and emerging technologies and discuss their opportunities and limitations in a changing climate. We argue that for RBM to be effective in a changing world, reef management strategies need to involve both existing and new interventions that together reduce stress, support the fitness of populations and species, and help people and economies to adapt to a highly altered ecosystem.

Coral microbiome diversity reflects mass coral bleaching susceptibility during the 2016 El Niño heat wave

Repeat marine heat wave-induced mass coral bleaching has decimated reefs in Seychelles for 35 years, but how coral-associated microbial diversity (microalgal endosymbionts of the family Symbiodiniaceae and bacterial communities) potentially underpins broad-scale bleaching dynamics remains unknown. We assessed microbiome composition during the 2016 heat wave peak at two contrasting reef sites (clear vs. turbid) in Seychelles, for key coral species considered bleaching sensitive (Acropora muricata, Acropora gemmifera) or tolerant (Porites lutea, Coelastrea aspera). For all species and sites, we sampled bleached versus unbleached colonies to examine how microbiomes align with heat stress susceptibility. Over 30% of all corals bleached in 2016, half of which were from Acropora sp. and Pocillopora sp. mass bleaching that largely transitioned to mortality by 2017. Symbiodiniaceae ITS2-sequencing revealed that the two Acropora sp. and P. lutea generally associated with C3z/C3 and C15 types, respectively, whereas C. aspera exhibited a plastic association with multiple D types and two C3z types. 16S rRNA gene sequencing revealed that bacterial communities were coral host-specific, largely through differences in the most abundant families, Hahellaceae (comprising Endozoicomonas), Rhodospirillaceae, and Rhodobacteraceae. Both Acropora sp. exhibited lower bacterial diversity, species richness, and community evenness compared to more bleaching-resistant P. lutea and C. aspera. Different bleaching susceptibility among coral species was thus consistent with distinct microbiome community profiles. These profiles were conserved across bleached and unbleached colonies of all coral species. As this pattern could also reflect a parallel response of the microbiome to environmental changes, the detailed functional associations will need to be determined in future studies. Further understanding such microbiome-environmental interactions is likely critical to target more effective management within oceanically isolated reefs of Seychelles.

Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?

Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change-the root cause of global coral decline.

Ecosystem-based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land-use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO 2 emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem-based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change-ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human-assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change-ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long-term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.

A simple function for full-subsets multiple regression in ecology with R

Full-subsets information theoretic approaches are becoming an increasingly popular tool for exploring predictive power and variable importance where a wide range of candidate predictors are being considered. Here, we describe a simple function in the statistical programming language R that can be used to construct, fit, and compare a complete model set of possible ecological or environmental predictors, given a response variable of interest and a starting generalized additive (mixed) model fit. Main advantages include not requiring a complete model to be fit as the starting point for candidate model set construction (meaning that a greater number of predictors can potentially be explored than might be available through functions such as dredge); model sets that include interactions between factors and continuous nonlinear predictors; and automatic removal of models with correlated predictors (based on a user defined criterion for exclusion). The function takes continuous predictors, which are fitted using smoothers via either gam, gamm (mgcv) or gamm4, as well as factor variables which are included on their own or as two-level interaction terms within the gam smooth (via use of the "by" argument), or with themselves. The function allows any model to be constructed and used as a null model, and takes a range of arguments that allow control over the model set being constructed, including specifying cyclic and linear continuous predictors, specification of the smoothing algorithm used, and the maximum complexity allowed for smooth terms. The use of the function is demonstrated via case studies that highlight how appropriate model sets can be easily constructed and the broader utility of the approach for exploratory ecology.

Acoustic monitoring to document the spatial distribution and hotspots of blast fishing in Tanzania

Destructive fishing using explosives occurs in a number of countries worldwide, negatively impacting coral reefs and fisheries on which millions of people rely. Documenting, quantifying and combating the problem has proved problematic. In March-April 2015 231h of acoustic data were collected over 2692km of systematically laid transects along the entire coast of Tanzania. A total of 318 blasts were confirmed using a combination of manual and supervised semi-autonomous detection. Blasts were detected along the entire coastline, but almost 62% were within 80km of Dar es Salaam, where blast frequency reached almost 10blasts/h. This study is one of the first to use acoustic monitoring to provide a spatial assessment of the intensity of blast fishing. This can be a useful tool that can provide reliable data to define hotspots where the activity is concentrated and determine where enforcement should be focused for maximum impact.

Thermal stress exposure, bleaching response, and mortality in the threatened coral Acropora palmata

Demographic data for Elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata, and in situ water temperature data from seven upper Florida Keys (USA) reefs revealed three warm thermal stress events between 2010 and 2016. During a mild bleaching event in 2011, up to 59% of colonies bleached, but no mortality resulted. In both 2014 and 2015, severe and unprecedented bleaching was observed with up to 100% of colonies bleached. A. palmata live tissue cover declined by one-third following the 2014-2015 events. Colony mortality of mildly- and non-bleached colonies did not differ but increased significantly with more severe bleaching. Increased bleaching prevalence corresponded to maximum daily average water temperatures above 31.3°C. However, the cumulative days with daily average exceeding 31.0°C provided a better predictor of bleaching response. The bleaching response of surviving colonies in 2015 was not consistent with acclimatization as most individual colonies bleached at least as badly as in 2014.

Detecting conservation benefits of marine reserves on remote reefs of the northern GBR

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) is the largest network of marine reserves in the world, yet little is known of the efficacy of no-fishing zones in the relatively lightly-exploited remote parts of the system (i.e., northern regions). Here, we find that the detection of reserve effects is challenging and that heterogeneity in benthic habitat composition, specifically branching coral cover, is one of the strongest driving forces of fish assemblages. As expected, the biomass of targeted fish species was generally greater (up to 5-fold) in no-take zones than in fished zones, but we found no differences between the two forms of no-take zone: 'no-take' versus 'no-entry'. Strong effects of zoning were detected in the remote Far-North inshore reefs and more central outer reefs, but surprisingly fishing effects were absent in the less remote southern locations. Moreover, the biomass of highly targeted species was nearly 2-fold greater in fished areas of the Far-North than in any reserve (no-take or no-entry) further south. Despite high spatial variability in fish biomass, our results suggest that fishing pressure is greater in southern areas and that poaching within reserves may be common. Our results also suggest that fishers 'fish the line' as stock sizes in exploited areas decreased near larger no-take zones. Interestingly, an analysis of zoning effects on small, non-targeted fishes appeared to suggest a top-down effect from mesopredators, but was instead explained by variability in benthic composition. Thus, we demonstrate the importance of including appropriate covariates when testing for evidence of trophic cascades and reserve successes or failures.

Marine reserves can mitigate and promote adaptation to climate change

Strong decreases in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the reduction trajectory resolved within the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, even these decreases will not avert serious stress and damage to life on Earth, and additional steps are needed to boost the resilience of ecosystems, safeguard their wildlife, and protect their capacity to supply vital goods and services. We discuss how well-managed marine reserves may help marine ecosystems and people adapt to five prominent impacts of climate change: acidification, sea-level rise, intensification of storms, shifts in species distribution, and decreased productivity and oxygen availability, as well as their cumulative effects. We explore the role of managed ecosystems in mitigating climate change by promoting carbon sequestration and storage and by buffering against uncertainty in management, environmental fluctuations, directional change, and extreme events. We highlight both strengths and limitations and conclude that marine reserves are a viable low-tech, cost-effective adaptation strategy that would yield multiple cobenefits from local to global scales, improving the outlook for the environment and people into the future.

The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change

Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central-southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid-century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.

Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the long-term maintenance of coral-dominated tropical ecosystems, and has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Coral bleaching and associated mortality events, which are predicted to become more frequent and intense, can alter the balance of different elements that are responsible for coral reef growth and maintenance. The geomorphic impacts of coral mass mortality have received relatively little attention, particularly questions concerning temporal recovery of reef carbonate production and the factors that promote resilience of reef growth potential. Here, we track the biological carbonate budgets of inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014, spanning the 1998 global bleaching event when these reefs lost more than 90% of coral cover. All 21 reefs had positive budgets in 1994, but in 2005 budgets were predominantly negative. By 2014, carbonate budgets on seven reefs were comparable with 1994, but on all reefs where an ecological regime shift to macroalgal dominance occurred, budgets remained negative through 2014. Reefs with higher massive coral cover, lower macroalgae cover and lower excavating parrotfish biomass in 1994 were more likely to have positive budgets post-bleaching. If mortality of corals from the 2016 bleaching event is as severe as that of 1998, our predictions based on past trends would suggest that six of eight reefs with positive budgets in 2014 would still have positive budgets by 2030. Our results highlight that reef accretion and framework maintenance cannot be assumed from the ecological state alone, and that managers should focus on conserving aspects of coral reefs that support resilient carbonate budgets.

Reserves as tools for alleviating impacts of marine disease

Marine protected areas can prevent over-exploitation, but their effect on marine diseases is less clear. We examined how marine reserves can reduce diseases affecting reef-building corals following acute and chronic disturbances. One year after a severe tropical cyclone, corals inside reserves had sevenfold lower levels of disease than those in non-reserves. Similarly, disease prevalence was threefold lower on reserve reefs following chronic exposure to terrestrial run-off from a degraded river catchment, when exposure duration was below the long-term site average. Examination of 35 predictor variables indicated that lower levels of derelict fishing line and injured corals inside reserves were correlated with lower levels of coral disease in both case studies, signifying that successful disease mitigation occurs when activities that damage reefs are restricted. Conversely, reserves were ineffective in moderating disease when sites were exposed to higher than average levels of run-off, demonstrating that reductions in water quality undermine resilience afforded by reserve protection. In addition to implementing protected areas, we highlight that disease management efforts should also target improving water quality and limiting anthropogenic activities that cause injury.

Local Stressors, Resilience, and Shifting Baselines on Coral Reefs

Understanding how and why coral reefs have changed over the last twenty to thirty years is crucial for sustaining coral-reef resilience. We used a historical baseline from Kosrae, a typical small island in Micronesia, to examine changes in fish and coral assemblages since 1986. We found that natural gradients in the spatial distribution of fish and coral assemblages have become amplified, as island geography is now a stronger determinant of species abundance patterns, and habitat forming Acropora corals and large-bodied fishes that were once common on the leeward side of the island have become scarce. A proxy for fishing access best predicted the relative change in fish assemblage condition over time, and in turn, declining fish condition was the only factor correlated with declining coral condition, suggesting overfishing may have reduced ecosystem resilience. Additionally, a proxy for watershed pollution predicted modern coral assemblage condition, suggesting pollution is also reducing resilience in densely populated areas. Altogether, it appears that unsustainable fishing reduced ecosystem resilience, as fish composition has shifted to smaller species in lower trophic levels, driven by losses of large predators and herbivores. While prior literature and anecdotal reports indicate that major disturbance events have been rare in Kosrae, small localized disturbances coupled with reduced resilience may have slowly degraded reef condition through time. Improving coral-reef resilience in the face of climate change will therefore require improved understanding and management of growing artisanal fishing pressure and watershed pollution.

Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density

The global decline of reef-building corals is understood to be due to a combination of local and global stressors. However, many reef scientists assume that local factors predominate and that isolated reefs, far from human activities, are generally healthier and more resilient. Here we show that coral reef degradation is not correlated with human population density. This suggests that local factors such as fishing and pollution are having minimal effects or that their impacts are masked by global drivers such as ocean warming. Our results also suggest that the effects of local and global stressors are antagonistic, rather than synergistic as widely assumed. These findings indicate that local management alone cannot restore coral populations or increase the resilience of reefs to large-scale impacts. They also highlight the truly global reach of anthropogenic warming and the immediate need for drastic and sustained cuts in carbon emissions.

Remote coral reefs can sustain high growth potential and may match future sea-level trends

Climate-induced disturbances are contributing to rapid, global-scale changes in coral reef ecology. As a consequence, reef carbonate budgets are declining, threatening reef growth potential and thus capacity to track rising sea-levels. Whether disturbed reefs can recover their growth potential and how rapidly, are thus critical research questions. Here we address these questions by measuring the carbonate budgets of 28 reefs across the Chagos Archipelago (Indian Ocean) which, while geographically remote and largely isolated from compounding human impacts, experienced severe (>90%) coral mortality during the 1998 warming event. Coral communities on most reefs recovered rapidly and we show that carbonate budgets in 2015 average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO₃ m⁻² yr⁻¹). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, the corals most severely impacted in 1998, averaged +8.4 G by 2015, comparable with estimates under pre-human (Holocene) disturbance conditions. These positive budgets are reflected in high reef growth rates (4.2 mm yr⁻¹) on Acropora-dominated reefs, demonstrating that carbonate budgets on these remote reefs have recovered rapidly from major climate-driven disturbances. Critically, these reefs retain the capacity to grow at rates exceeding measured regional mid-late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise, and close to IPCC sea-level rise projections through to 2100.

Habitat Selectivity and Reliance on Live Corals for Indo-Pacific Hawkfishes (Family: Cirrhitidae)

Hawkfishes (family: Cirrhitidae) are small conspicuous reef predators that commonly perch on, or shelter within, the branches of coral colonies. This study examined habitat associations of hawkfishes, and explicitly tested whether hawkfishes associate with specific types of live coral. Live coral use and habitat selectivity of hawkfishes was explored at six locations from Chagos in the central Indian Ocean extending east to Fiji in the Pacific Ocean. A total of 529 hawkfishes from seven species were recorded across all locations with 63% of individuals observed perching on, or sheltering within, live coral colonies. Five species (all except Cirrhitus pinnulatus and Cirrhitichthys oxycephalus) associated with live coral habitats. Cirrhitichthys falco selected for species of Pocillopora while Paracirrhites arcatus and P. forsteri selected for both Pocillopora and Acropora, revealing that these habitats are used disproportionately more than expected based on the local cover of these coral genera. Habitat selection was consistent across geographic locations, and species of Pocillopora were the most frequently used and most consistently selected even though this coral genus never comprised more than 6% of the total coral cover at any of the locations. Across locations, Paracirrhites arcatus and P. forsteri were the most abundant species and variation in their abundance corresponded with local patterns of live coral cover and abundance of Pocilloporid corals, respectively. These findings demonstrate the link between small predatory fishes and live coral habitats adding to the growing body of literature highlighting that live corals (especially erect branching corals) are critically important for sustaining high abundance and diversity of fishes on coral reefs.

Through bleaching and tsunami: Coral reef recovery in the Maldives

Coral reefs are degrading worldwide, but little information exists on their previous conditions for most regions of the world. Since 1989, we have been studying the Maldives, collecting data before, during and after the bleaching and mass mortality event of 1998. As early as 1999, many newly settled colonies were recorded. Recruits shifted from a dominance of massive and encrusting corals in the early stages of recolonisation towards a dominance of Acropora and Pocillopora by 2009. Coral cover, which dropped to less than 10% after the bleaching, returned to pre-bleaching values of around 50% by 2013. The 2004 tsunami had comparatively little effect. In 2014, the coral community was similar to that existing before the bleaching. According to descriptors and metrics adopted, recovery of Maldivian coral reefs took between 6 and 15years, or may even be considered unachieved, as there are species that had not come back yet.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling

Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management.

Recovery potential of the world's coral reef fishes

Continuing degradation of coral reef ecosystems has generated substantial interest in how management can support reef resilience. Fishing is the primary source of diminished reef function globally, leading to widespread calls for additional marine reserves to recover fish biomass and restore key ecosystem functions. Yet there are no established baselines for determining when these conservation objectives have been met or whether alternative management strategies provide similar ecosystem benefits. Here we establish empirical conservation benchmarks and fish biomass recovery timelines against which coral reefs can be assessed and managed by studying the recovery potential of more than 800 coral reefs along an exploitation gradient. We show that resident reef fish biomass in the absence of fishing (B0) averages ∼1,000 kg ha(-1), and that the vast majority (83%) of fished reefs are missing more than half their expected biomass, with severe consequences for key ecosystem functions such as predation. Given protection from fishing, reef fish biomass has the potential to recover within 35 years on average and less than 60 years when heavily depleted. Notably, alternative fisheries restrictions are largely (64%) successful at maintaining biomass above 50% of B0, sustaining key functions such as herbivory. Our results demonstrate that crucial ecosystem functions can be maintained through a range of fisheries restrictions, allowing coral reef managers to develop recovery plans that meet conservation and livelihood objectives in areas where marine reserves are not socially or politically feasible solutions.

Expectations and Outcomes of Reserve Network Performance following Re-zoning of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park

Networks of no-take marine reserves (NTMRs) are widely advocated for preserving exploited fish stocks and for conserving biodiversity. We used underwater visual surveys of coral reef fish and benthic communities to quantify the short- to medium-term (5 to 30 years) ecological effects of the establishment of NTMRs within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP). The density, mean length, and biomass of principal fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp., Variola spp.), were consistently greater in NTMRs than on fished reefs over both the short and medium term. However, there were no clear or consistent differences in the structure of fish or benthic assemblages, non-target fish density, fish species richness, or coral cover between NTMR and fished reefs. There was no indication that the displacement and concentration of fishing effort reduced coral trout populations on fished reefs. A severe tropical cyclone impacted many survey reefs during the study, causing similar declines in coral cover and fish density on both NTMR and fished reefs. However, coral trout biomass declined only on fished reefs after the cyclone. The GBRMP is performing as expected in terms of the protection of fished stocks and biodiversity for a developed country in which fishing is not excessive and targets a narrow range of species. NTMRs cannot protect coral reefs directly from acute regional-scale disturbance but, after a strong tropical cyclone, impacted NTMR reefs supported higher biomass of key fishery-targeted species and so should provide valuable sources of larvae to enhance population recovery and long-term persistence.