The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H7N7) Virus Epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003—Lessons Learned from the First Five Outbreaks

Alarming situation of emerging H5 and H7 avian influenza and effective control strategies

Avian influenza viruses continue to present challenges to animal and human health. Viruses bearing the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of the H5 subtype and H7 subtype have caused 2634 human cases around the world, including more than 1000 deaths. These viruses have caused numerous disease outbreaks in wild birds and domestic poultry, and are responsible for the loss of at least 422 million domestic birds since 2005. The H5 influenza viruses are spread by migratory wild birds and have caused three waves of influenza outbreaks across multiple continents, and the third wave that started in 2020 is ongoing. Many countries in Europe and North America control highly pathogenic avian influenza by culling alone, whereas some countries, including China, have adopted a "cull plus vaccination" strategy. As the largest poultry-producing country in the world, China lost relatively few poultry during the three waves of global H5 avian influenza outbreaks, and nearly eliminated the pervasive H7N9 viruses that emerged in 2013. In this review, we briefly summarize the damages the H5 and H7 influenza viruses have caused to the global poultry industry and public health, analyze the origin, evolution, and spread of the H5 viruses that caused the waves, and discuss how and why the vaccination strategy in China has been a success. Given that the H5N1 viruses are widely circulating in wild birds and causing problems in domestic poultry around the world, we recommend that any unnecessary obstacles to vaccination strategies should be removed immediately and forever.

Hemagglutinin Subtype Specificity and Mechanisms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Genesis

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses (HPAIVs) arise from low pathogenic precursors following spillover from wild waterfowl into poultry populations. The main virulence determinant of HPAIVs is the presence of a multi-basic cleavage site (MBCS) in the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein. The MBCS allows for HA cleavage and, consequently, activation by ubiquitous proteases, which results in systemic dissemination in terrestrial poultry. Since 1959, 51 independent MBCS acquisition events have been documented, virtually all in HA from the H5 and H7 subtypes. In the present article, data from natural LPAIV to HPAIV conversions and experimental in vitro and in vivo studies were reviewed in order to compile recent advances in understanding HA cleavage efficiency, protease usage, and MBCS acquisition mechanisms. Finally, recent hypotheses that might explain the unique predisposition of the H5 and H7 HA sequences to obtain an MBCS in nature are discussed.

Bayesian nonparametric inference for heterogeneously mixing infectious disease models

Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission continue to play a vital role in understanding, mitigating, and preventing outbreaks. The vast majority of epidemic models in the literature are parametric, meaning that they contain inherent assumptions about how transmission occurs in a population. However, such assumptions can be lacking in appropriate biological or epidemiological justification and in consequence lead to erroneous scientific conclusions and misleading predictions. We propose a flexible Bayesian nonparametric framework that avoids the need to make strict model assumptions about the infection process and enables a far more data-driven modeling approach for inferring the mechanisms governing transmission. We use our methods to enhance our understanding of the transmission mechanisms of the 2001 UK foot and mouth disease outbreak.

Infectious disease transmission models require assumptions about how the pathogen spreads between individuals. These assumptions may be somewhat arbitrary, particularly when it comes to describing how transmission varies between individuals of different types or in different locations, and may in turn lead to incorrect conclusions or policy decisions. We develop a general Bayesian nonparametric framework for transmission modeling that removes the need to make such specific assumptions with regard to the infection process. We use multioutput Gaussian process prior distributions to model different infection rates in populations containing multiple types of individuals. Further challenges arise because the transmission process itself is unobserved, and large outbreaks can be computationally demanding to analyze. We address these issues by data augmentation and a suitable efficient approximation method. Simulation studies using synthetic data demonstrate that our framework gives accurate results. We analyze an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in the United Kingdom, quantifying the spatial transmission mechanism between farms with different combinations of livestock.

Mortality Levels and Production Indicators for Suspicion of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Commercially Farmed Ducks

(1) Background: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a viral infection characterized by inducing severe disease and high levels of mortality in gallinaceous poultry. Increased mortality, drop in egg production or decreased feed or water intake are used as indicators for notification of suspicions of HPAI outbreaks. However, infections in commercial duck flocks may result in mild disease with low mortality levels, thereby compromising notifications. (2) Methods: Data on daily mortality, egg production, feed intake and water intake from broiler and breeder duck flocks not infected (n = 56 and n = 11, respectively) and infected with HPAIV (n = 13, n = 4) were used for analyses. Data from negative flocks were used to assess the baseline (daily) levels of mortality and production parameters and to identify potential threshold values for triggering suspicions of HPAI infections and assess the specificity (Sp) of these thresholds. Data from infected flocks were used to assess the effect of infection on daily mortality and production and to evaluate the sensitivity (Se) of the thresholds for early detection of outbreaks. (3) Results: For broiler flocks, daily mortality > 0.3% (after the first week of production) or using a regression model for aberration detection would indicate infection with Se and Sp higher than 80%. Drops in mean daily feed or water intake larger than 7 g or 14 mL (after the first week of production), respectively, are sensitive indicators of infection but have poor Sp. For breeders, mortality thresholds are poor indicators of infection (low Se and Sp). However, a consecutive drop in egg production larger than 9% is an effective indicator of a HPAI outbreak. For both broiler and breeder duck flocks, cumulative average methods were also assessed, which had high Se but generated many false alarms (poor Sp). (4) Conclusions: The identified reporting thresholds can be used to update legislation and provide guidelines to farmers and veterinarians to notify suspicions of HPAI outbreaks in commercial duck flocks.

[Monoclonal antibodies to hemagglutinin of influenza A/H7N3 virus (Orthomyxoviridae: Alphainfluenzavirus: Influenza A virus)]

INTRODUCTION

Variants of influenza virus A/H7 have the same high pandemic potential as A/H5. However, the information about the antigenic structure of H7 hemagglutinin (НА) is considerably inferior in quantitative terms to similar data for H5 НА.The aims of the study were development and characterization of the monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) panel for HA subtype H7 of the influenza A virus.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Viruses were accumulated in 10-day-old chicken embryos. Purification and concentration of the virus, determination of protein concentration, preparation of MAbs and ascitic fluids, hemagglutination and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests, assessment of antibodies' activity in indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), as well as determination of MAbs isotypes and neutralization reaction (NR) were carried out by standard methods.

RESULTS

The obtained MAbs to А/mallard/Netherlands/12/2000 (H7N3) strain were studied in HI test with a set of strains of different years of isolation belonging to different evolutionary groups. MAbs had a reduced reactivity compared to the immunogen-virus for all the studied strains. Cross-interaction of MAbs 9E11 and 9G12 in HI test with influenza A/H15 virus has been observed.

DISCUSSION

Influenza A agent with H7 HA variant could serve as a potential cause of a future pandemic. Development of the MAbs panel for subtype H7 HA is an urgent task for both veterinary medicine and public health.

CONCLUSION

The obtained MAbs can be used not only for epitope mapping of the H7 HA molecule (currently insufficiently studied) and as reagents for diagnostic assays, but also for determining common («universal») epitopes in HA of different strains of this subtype.

H7N7 Avian Influenza Virus Mutation from Low to High Pathogenicity on a Layer Chicken Farm in the UK

Avian influenza virus (AIV) subtypes H5 and H7 are capable of mutating from low to high pathogenicity strains, causing high mortality in poultry with significant economic losses globally. During 2015, two outbreaks of H7N7 low pathogenicity AIV (LPAIV) in Germany, and one each in the United Kingdom (UK) and The Netherlands occurred, as well as single outbreaks of H7N7 high pathogenicity AIV (HPAIV) in Germany and the UK. Both HPAIV outbreaks were linked to precursor H7N7 LPAIV outbreaks on the same or adjacent premises. Herein, we describe the clinical, epidemiological, and virological investigations for the H7N7 UK HPAIV outbreak on a farm with layer chickens in mixed free-range and caged units. H7N7 HPAIV was identified and isolated from clinical samples, as well as H7N7 LPAIV, which could not be isolated. Using serological and molecular evidence, we postulate how the viruses spread throughout the premises, indicating potential points of incursion and possible locations for the mutation event. Serological and mortality data suggested that the LPAIV infection preceded the HPAIV infection and afforded some clinical protection against the HPAIV. These results document the identification of a LPAIV to HPAIV mutation in nature, providing insights into factors that drive its manifestation during outbreaks.

Pathobiological Origins and Evolutionary History of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses

High-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have arisen from low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses via changes in the hemagglutinin proteolytic cleavage site, which include mutation of multiple nonbasic to basic amino acids, duplication of basic amino acids, or recombination with insertion of cellular or viral amino acids. Between 1959 and 2019, a total of 42 natural, independent H5 (n = 15) and H7 (n = 27) LPAI to HPAI virus conversion events have occurred in Europe (n = 16), North America (n = 9), Oceania (n = 7), Asia (n = 5), Africa (n = 4), and South America (n = 1). Thirty-eight of these HPAI outbreaks were limited in the number of poultry premises affected and were eradicated. However, poultry outbreaks caused by A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (H5Nx), Mexican H7N3, and Chinese H7N9 HPAI lineages have continued. Active surveillance and molecular detection and characterization efforts will provide the best opportunity for early detection and eradication from domestic birds.

Managing Free-Range Laying Hens-Part B: Early Range Users Have More Pathology Findings at the End of Lay but Have a Significantly Higher Chance of Survival-An Indicative Study

Simple Summary

Free-range facilities may present a biosecurity risk in some situations, but range use has also been associated with better hen welfare. We investigated the association between early-life range use (when hens were 18–21 weeks of age) and hen survival during the entire housing period as well as various health and welfare parameters at 74 weeks of age. Hens that preferred to use the range at early life were three times more likely to survive. Early range users were also 1.6 times more likely to become infected with gastrointestinal nematodes and showed significantly more frequent signs indicating spotty liver disease. Hens that preferred to stay in the shed during early life had a higher prevalence of Fatty Liver Syndrome and significantly less feather cover. In conclusion, hens that do not range during early life may benefit from additional management strategies to increase their likelihood of survival. Further investigations under controlled environmental conditions are warranted to quantify further the observed effects.

Abstract

While free-range laying hens frequently experience health and welfare challenges, the contribution of range use towards these risks are largely unknown. The aim of this pilot study was to investigate the survival, health and welfare of commercial free-range laying hens and explore the association with early range use. Range use of 9375 Lohmann Brown hens housed within five flocks was assessed during 18–21 weeks of age and individual hens were classified as “rangers” (frequent range users), “roamers” (intermittent range users), and “stayers” (rare/no range users) were then subject to necropsy at 74 weeks of age. Rangers and roamers were three times and 2.4 times more likely to survive than stayers, respectively (p = 0.001). Overall, rangers had significantly better feather cover and more lesions associated with spotty liver diseases compared to roamers and stayers (p = 0.001). Similarly, rangers and roamers had a higher prevalence of A. galli infection and less frequent signs of fatty liver syndrome compared to stayers. Rangers had a higher proportion of hens with full ovary follicle production compared to stayers and roamers (p = 0.035). This information is highly relevant to consider the targeted support of different flock subpopulations to improve hen health and welfare, directly affecting farm profitability. Further research on other farms is warranted to investigate the transferability of the observed results.

Orally administered recombinant baculovirus vaccine elicits partial protection against avian influenza virus infection in mice

Avian influenza outbreaks have placed a tremendous economic burden on the poultry industry, necessitating the need for an effective vaccine. Although multiple vaccine candidates are available, its development is hindered by several drawbacks associated with the vaccine platforms and as such, more improvements to the vaccines are needed. Therefore, in this study, the vaccine efficacy in the murine models was assessed prior to evaluation in chickens. An oral recombinant baculovirus (rBV) vaccine expressing influenza hemagglutinin (HA) (A/H5N1) was generated and its efficacy was investigated against homologous avian influenza infection in mice. Our results confirmed that oral administration of rBVs enhanced the level of virus-specific antibodies in the sera following boost immunization. Upon challenge infection with a lethal dose of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI, H5N1) virus, a marked increase in mucosal IgG and IgA were observed. Drastically increased antibody secretory cell responses from the bone marrow cells and splenocytes of vaccinated mice were observed, in addition to the strongly elicited germinal center responses in the lungs and the spleens. Vaccinated mice showed significantly reduced lung pro-inflammatory cytokine responses, lung viral loads, body weight loss, and mortality. Though mice were only partially protected upon challenge infection, these results highlight the potential of orally administered rBVs expressing the HA as a vaccine candidate for controlling avian influenza outbreaks.

Identification of High-Risk Areas for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Central Luzon, Philippines

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a major problem in the poultry industry. It is highly contagious and is associated with a high mortality rate. The Philippines experienced an outbreak of avian influenza (AI) in 2017. As there is always a risk of re-emergence, efforts to manage disease outbreaks should be optimal. Linked to this is the need for an effective surveillance procedure to capture disease outbreaks at their early stage. Risk-based surveillance is the most effective and economical approach to outbreak management. This study evaluated the potential of commercial poultry farms in Central Luzon to transmit HPAI by calculating their respective reproductive ratios (R0). The reproductive number for each farm is based on the spatial kernel and the infectious period. A risk map has been created based on the calculated R₀. There were 882 (76.63%) farms with R0 < 1. Farms with R0 ≥ 1 were all located in Pampanga Province. These farms were concentrated in the towns of San Luis (n = 12) and Candaba (n = 257). This study demonstrates the utility of mapping farm-level R0 estimates for informing HPAI risk management activities.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 outbreaks in Dutch poultry farms, 2014-2018: Clinical signs and mortality

In recent years, different subtypes of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses caused outbreaks in several poultry types worldwide. Early detection of HPAI virus infection is crucial to reduce virus spread. Previously, the use of a mortality ratio threshold to expedite notification of suspicion in layer farms was proposed. The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical signs reported in the early stages of HPAI H5N8 and H5N6 outbreaks on chicken and Pekin duck farms between 2014 and 2018 in the Netherlands and compare them with the onset of an increased mortality ratio (MR). Data on daily mortality and clinical signs from nine egg‐producing chicken farms and seven Pekin duck farms infected with HPAI H5N8 (2014 and 2016) and H5N6 (2017–2018) in the Netherlands were analysed. In 12 out of 15 outbreaks for which a MR was available, MR increase preceded or coincided with the first observation of clinical signs by the farmer. In one chicken and two Pekin duck outbreaks, clinical signs were observed prior to MR increase. On all farms, veterinarians observed clinical signs of general disease. Nervous or locomotor signs were reported in all Pekin duck outbreaks, but only in two chicken outbreaks. Other clinical signs were observed less frequently in both chickens and Pekin ducks. Compared to veterinarians, farmers observed and reported clinical signs, especially respiratory and gastrointestinal signs, less frequently. This case series suggests that a MR with a set threshold could be an objective parameter to detect HPAI infection on chicken and Pekin duck farms at an early stage. Observation of clinical signs may provide additional indication for farmers and veterinarians for notifying a clinical suspicion of HPAI infection. Further assessment and validation of a MR threshold in Pekin ducks are important as it could serve as an important tool in HPAI surveillance programs.

Detection of Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Subtype H10N7 in Poultry and Environmental Water Samples During a Clinical Outbreak in Commercial Free-Range Layers, Netherlands 2017

Wild birds are the natural reservoir of the avian influenza virus (AIV) and may transmit AIV to poultry via direct contact or indirectly through the environment. In the Netherlands, a clinically suspected free-range layer flock was reported to the veterinary authorities by the farmer. Increased mortality, a decreased feed intake, and a drop in egg production were observed. Subsequently, an infection with low pathogenic avian influenza virus was detected. This study describes the diagnostic procedures used for detection and subtyping of the virus. In addition to routine diagnostics, the potential of two different environmental diagnostic methods was investigated for detecting AIV in surface water. AIV was first detected using rRT-PCR and isolated from tracheal and cloacal swabs collected from the hens. The virus was subtyped as H10N7. Antibodies against the virus were detected in 28 of the 31 sera tested. An intravenous pathogenicity index (IVPI) experiment was performed, but no clinical signs (IVPI = 0) were observed. Post-mortem examination and histology confirmed the AIV infection. Multiple water samples were collected longitudinally from the free-range area and waterway near the farm. Both environmental diagnostic methods allowed the detection of the H10N7 virus, demonstrating the potential of these methods in detection of AIV. The described methods could be a useful additional procedure for AIV surveillance in water-rich areas with large concentrations of wild birds or in areas around poultry farms. In addition, these methods could be used as a tool to test if the environment or free-range area is virus-free again, at the end of an AIV epidemic.

Prioritization of livestock transboundary diseases in Belgium using a multicriteria decision analysis tool based on drivers of emergence

During the past decade, livestock diseases have (re-)emerged in areas where they had been previously eradicated or never been recorded before. Drivers (i.e. factors of (re-)emergence) have been identified. Livestock diseases spread irrespective of borders, and therefore, reliable methods are required to help decision-makers to identify potential threats and try stopping their (re-)emergence. Ranking methods and multicriteria approaches are cost-effective tools for such purpose and were applied to prioritize a list of selected diseases (N = 29 including 6 zoonoses) based on the opinion of 62 experts in accordance with 50 drivers-related criteria. Diseases appearing in the upper ranking were porcine epidemic diarrhoea, foot-and-mouth disease, low pathogenic avian influenza, African horse sickness and highly pathogenic avian influenza. The tool proposed uses a multicriteria decision analysis approach to prioritize pathogens according to drivers and can be applied to other countries or diseases.

Global patterns of avian influenza A (H7): virus evolution and zoonotic threats

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) continue to impose a negative impact on animal and human health worldwide. In particular, the emergence of highly pathogenic AIV H5 and, more recently, the emergence of low pathogenic AIV H7N9 have led to enormous socioeconomical losses in the poultry industry and resulted in fatal human infections. While H5N1 remains infamous, the number of zoonotic infections with H7N9 has far surpassed those attributed to H5. Despite the clear public health concerns posed by AIV H7, it is unclear why specifically this virus subtype became endemic in poultry and emerged in humans. In this review, we bring together data on global patterns of H7 circulation, evolution and emergence in humans. Specifically, we discuss data from the wild bird reservoir, expansion and epidemiology in poultry, significant increase in their zoonotic potential since 2013 and genesis of highly pathogenic H7. In addition, we analysed available sequence data from an evolutionary perspective, demonstrating patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions and reassortment dynamics. The integration of all aspects is crucial in the optimisation of surveillance efforts in wild birds, poultry and humans, and we emphasise the need for a One Health approach in controlling emerging viruses such as AIV H7.

A review of the animal disease outbreaks and biosecure animal mortality composting systems

Despite the development of new vaccines and the application of rigorous biosecurity measures, animal diseases pose a continuing threat to animal health, food safety, national economy, and the environment. Intense livestock production, increased travel, and changing climate have increased the risk of catastrophic animal losses due to infectious diseases. In the event of an outbreak, it is essential to properly manage the infected animals to prevent the spread of diseases. The most common disposal methods used during a disease outbreak include burial, landfilling, incineration and composting. Biosecurity, transportation logistics, public perception, and environmental concerns limit the use of some of these methods. During a disease outbreak, the large number of mortalities often exceeds the capacity of local rendering plants and landfills. Transporting mortalities to disposal and incineration facilities outside the production operation introduces biosecurity risks. Burying mortalities is limited by the size and availability of suitable sites and it has the risk of pathogen survival and contamination of groundwater and soil. Portable incinerators are expensive and have the potential to aerosolize infectious particles. Composting, on the other hand, has been recognized as a biosecure disposal method. Research showed that it eliminates bacterial pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157: H7, Salmonella spp., as well as viruses including highly pathogenic avian influenza, foot-and-mouth disease, Newcastle disease, and porcine epidemic diarrhea. This paper summarizes the lessons learned during the major animal disease outbreaks including the 2010 foot-and-mouth disease, 2016 highly pathogenic avian influenza, and recent African swine fever outbreaks. The purpose of this review is to critically discuss the biosecurity of composting as a mortality disposal method during the outbreaks of infectious animal diseases.

Spatial modelling for low pathogenicity avian influenza virus at the interface of wild birds and backyard poultry

Low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) is endemic in wild birds and poultry in Argentina, and active surveillance has been in place to prevent any eventual virus mutation into a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV), which is exotic in this country. Risk mapping can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems, but it has proven a very challenging task in the absence of disease data. We used a combination of expert opinion elicitation, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify the most suitable areas for the occurrence of LPAIV at the interface between backyard domestic poultry and wild birds in Argentina. This was achieved by calculating a spatially explicit risk index. As evidenced by the validation and sensitivity analyses, our model was successful in identifying high-risk areas for LPAIV occurrence. Also, we show that the risk for virus occurrence is significantly higher in areas closer to commercial poultry farms. Although the active surveillance systems have been successful in detecting LPAIV-positive backyard farms and wild birds in Argentina, our predictions suggest that surveillance efforts in those compartments could be improved by including high-risk areas identified by our model. Our research provides a tool to guide surveillance activities in the future, and presents a mixed methodological approach which could be implemented in areas where the disease is exotic or rare and a knowledge-driven modelling method is necessary.

A viral race for primacy: co-infection of a natural pair of low and highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza viruses in chickens and embryonated chicken eggs

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) infection in poultry caused devastating mortality and economic losses. HPAIV of subtypes H5 and H7 emerge from precursor viruses of low pathogenicity (LP) by spontaneous mutation associated with a shift in the susceptibility of the endoproteolytic cleavage site of the viral hemagglutinin protein from trypsin- to furin-like proteases. A recently described natural pair of LP/HP H7N7 viruses derived from two spatio-temporally linked outbreaks in layer chickens was used to study how a minority of mutated HP virions after de novo generation in a single host might gain primacy. Co-infection experiments in embryonated eggs and in chickens were conducted to investigate amplification, spread and transmissionof HPAIV within a poultry population that experiences concurrent infection by an antigenically identical LP precursor virus. Simultaneous LPAIV co-infection (inoculum dose of 10⁶ egg-infectious dose 50% endpoint (EID₅₀)/0.5 mL) withincreasing titers of HPAIV from 10¹ to 10^5.7 EID₅₀/0.5 mL) had a significant impeding impact on HP H7 replication, viral excretion kinetics, clinical signs and histopathological lesions (in vivo) and on embryo mortality (in ovo). LP/HP co-infected chickens required a hundredfold higher virus dose (HPAIV inoculum of 10⁵ EID₅₀) compared to HPAIV mono-infection (HPAIV inoculum of 10³ EID₅₀) to develop overt clinical signs, mortality and virus spread to uninfected sentinels. Escape and spread of HP phenotypes after de novo generation in an index host may therefore be highly precarious due to significant competition with co-circulating LP precursor virus.

Effective thresholds for reporting suspicions and improve early detection of avian influenza outbreaks in layer chickens

The objective of this study was to identify effective reporting thresholds for suspicions of both highly pathogenic (HPAI) and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks in layer farms. Daily mortality and egg-production data from 30 Dutch farms with no record of AI infection were analysed and thresholds set. Mortality rates above or egg-production below these thresholds for two consecutive days would trigger an alarm sign. The following thresholds were identified for mortality: (i) A mortality threshold of 0.08% or 0.13% for layers kept indoors or with free-range access respectively, (ii) a 2.9 times higher mortality than the average weekly mortality of the previous week, and iii) a moving-average threshold that could be implemented for each specific farm. For egg-production: (i) a weekly ratio lower than 0.94 in egg-production drop, and (ii) a moving-average threshold. The accuracy of these thresholds was assessed by quantifying their sensitivity, specificity and time to trigger disease detection using data from 15 infected and 31 non-infected farms. New thresholds were more sensitive and signalled infection two to six days earlier than the presently used thresholds. A high Specificity (97–100%) was obtained by combining mortality and egg production thresholds in a serial approach to trigger an alarm.

Risk for Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus on Poultry Farms, the Netherlands, 2007-2013

Using annual serologic surveillance data from all poultry farms in the Netherlands during 2007–2013, we quantified the risk for the introduction of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) in different types of poultry production farms and putative spatial-environmental risk factors: distance from poultry farms to clay soil, waterways, and wild waterfowl areas. Outdoor-layer, turkey (meat and breeder), and duck (meat and breeder) farms had a significantly higher risk for LPAIV introduction than did indoor-layer farms. Except for outdoor-layer, all poultry types (i.e., broilers, chicken breeders, ducks, and turkeys) are kept indoors. For all production types, LPAIV risk decreased significantly with increasing distance to medium-sized waterways and with increasing distance to areas with defined wild waterfowl, but only for outdoor-layer and turkey farms. Future research should focus not only on production types but also on distance to waterways and wild bird areas. In addition, settlement of new poultry farms in high-risk areas should be discouraged.

The Sentinel System as the Main Influenza Surveillance Tool

Poland has implemented the influenza surveillance system called Sentinel as of 2004. The system consists of both epidemiological and virological surveillance. It is an important tool for monitoring the situation in the entire country, coordinated by the National Influenza Center situated at the National Institute of Public Health-National Institute of Hygiene (NIPH-NIH) in Warsaw, Poland. In the 2015/2016 epidemic season, more than 1600 samples were tested in the Sentinel System, of which 38.6% were positive. The samples were evaluated in seven age-groups: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-25, 26-44, 45-64, and over 65 years of age. Significant differences were reported in the number of confirmed cases of infection caused by influenza and influenza-like viruses, depending on the age-group. The highest number of confirmed cases of infections was reported for the age range of 26-44 years, accounting for 30% of the total. In each age-group, the presence of infection caused by influenza-like viruses, collectively accounting for only 3.8% of all positive tests, was also confirmed. Weekly reports generated by the Sentinel System enable to determine and control a current influenza activity in the country, which is of essential importance in case of the emergence of a new strain with a pandemic potential.

Evaluation of the kinetics of anti-NP and anti-HA antibody after infection of Pekin ducks with low pathogenic avian influenza virus

Serological monitoring is a feature of surveillance programmes for the detection of the circulation of notifiable low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in commercial poultry holdings. Commercial multispecies nucleoprotein (NP) enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) have been replacing the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) test as pre‐screening tools. Few comparative studies have been conducted to test sera from domestic ducks for diagnostic purposes. Therefore, we evaluated the correlation between commercial NP ELISAs and the HI test. Anti‐NP and anti‐haemagglutinin (HA) antibodies were measured in sera from domestic ducks that had undergone serological screening and from juvenile domestic Pekin ducks that were experimentally infected with LPAI viruses. The findings highlight an absence of a correlation between NP ELISA and HI results with both field and experimental duck sera. Dissimilar kinetics of the antibodies detected during the follow‐up evaluation of the humoral immune responses in experimentally infected ducks may explain this lack of correlation. Indeed, anti‐NP titres decreased over time, whereas anti‐HA titres remained unchanged after inoculation with the H3N1 LPAI virus isolated from domestic duck or the H7N1 LPAI virus isolated from chicken. Despite these differences, the NP ELISA may serve as a valid pre‐screening tool to detect circulating LPAI viruses in domestic duck populations at the flock level.

Epidemic Reconstruction in a Phylogenetics Framework: Transmission Trees as Partitions of the Node Set

The use of genetic data to reconstruct the transmission tree of infectious disease epidemics and outbreaks has been the subject of an increasing number of studies, but previous approaches have usually either made assumptions that are not fully compatible with phylogenetic inference, or, where they have based inference on a phylogeny, have employed a procedure that requires this tree to be fixed. At the same time, the coalescent-based models of the pathogen population that are employed in the methods usually used for time-resolved phylogeny reconstruction are a considerable simplification of epidemic process, as they assume that pathogen lineages mix freely. Here, we contribute a new method that is simultaneously a phylogeny reconstruction method for isolates taken from an epidemic, and a procedure for transmission tree reconstruction. We observe that, if one or more samples is taken from each host in an epidemic or outbreak and these are used to build a phylogeny, a transmission tree is equivalent to a partition of the set of nodes of this phylogeny, such that each partition element is a set of nodes that is connected in the full tree and contains all the tips corresponding to samples taken from one and only one host. We then implement a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) procedure for simultaneous sampling from the spaces of both trees, utilising a newly-designed set of phylogenetic tree proposals that also respect node partitions. We calculate the posterior probability of these partitioned trees based on a model that acknowledges the population structure of an epidemic by employing an individual-based disease transmission model and a coalescent process taking place within each host. We demonstrate our method, first using simulated data, and then with sequences taken from the H7N7 avian influenza outbreak that occurred in the Netherlands in 2003. We show that it is superior to established coalescent methods for reconstructing the topology and node heights of the phylogeny and performs well for transmission tree reconstruction when the phylogeny is well-resolved by the genetic data, but caution that this will often not be the case in practice and that existing genetic and epidemiological data should be used to configure such analyses whenever possible. This method is available for use by the research community as part of BEAST, one of the most widely-used packages for reconstruction of dated phylogenies.

With sequence data becoming available in increasing high volumes and at decreasing costs, there has been substantial recent interest in the possibility of using pathogen genome sequences as a means to retrace the spread of disease amongst the infected hosts in an epidemic. While several such methods exist, many of them are not fully compatible with phylogenetic inference, which is the most commonly-used methodology for exploring the ancestry of the isolates represented by a set of sequences. Procedures using phylogenetics as a basis have either taken a single, fixed phylogenetic tree as input, or have been quite narrow in scope and not available in any current package for general use. For their part, standard phylogenetic methods usually assume a model of the pathogen population that is overly simplistic for the situation in an epidemic. Here, we bridge the gap by introducing a new, highly flexible method, implemented in the publicly-available BEAST package, which simultaneously reconstructs the transmission history of an epidemic and the phylogeny for samples taken from it. We apply the procedure to simulated data and to sequences from the 2003 H7N7 avian influenza outbreak in the Netherlands.

Agroterrorism targeting livestock: a review with a focus on early detection systems

Agroterrorism targeting livestock can be described as the intentional introduction of an animal disease agent against livestock with the purpose of causing economic damage, disrupting socioeconomic stability of a country, and creating panic and distress. This type of terrorism can be alluring to terrorists because animal disease agents are easily available. This review addresses the vulnerabilities of the livestock industry to agroterrorism. However, we also show that early detection systems have recently been developed for agroterrorism and deliberate spread of animal pathogens in livestock, including an agroterrorism intelligence cycle, syndromic surveillance programs, and computer-based clinical decision support systems that can be used for early detection of notifiable animal diseases. The development of DIVA-vaccines in the past 10 to 15 years has created, in principle, an excellent response instrument to counter intentional animal disease outbreaks. These developments have made our animal agriculture less vulnerable to agroterrorism. But we cannot relax; there are still many challenges, in particular with respect to integration of first line of defense, law enforcement, and early detection systems for animal diseases.

Application of loop analysis for the qualitative assessment of surveillance and control in veterinary epidemiology

Background

Systems for animal disease mitigation involve both surveillance activities and interventions to control the disease. They are complex organizations that are described by partial or imprecise data, making it difficult to evaluate them or make decisions to improve them. A mathematical method, called loop analysis, can be used to model qualitatively the structure and the behavior of dynamic systems; it relies on the study of the sign of the interactions between the components of the system. This method, currently widely used by ecologists, has to our knowledge never been applied in the context of animal disease mitigation systems. The objective of the study was to assess whether loop analysis could be applied to this new context. We first developed a generic model that restricted the applicability of the method to event-based surveillance systems of endemic diseases, excluding the emergence and eradication phases. Then we chose the mitigation system of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in Cambodia as an example of such system to study the application of loop analysis to a real disease mitigation system.

Results

Breaking down the generic model, we constructed a 6-variables model to represent the HPAI H5N1 mitigation system in Cambodia. This construction work improved our understanding of this system, highlighting the link between surveillance and control which is unclear in traditional representations of this system. Then we analyzed the effect of the perturbations to this HPAI H5N1 mitigation system that we interpreted in terms of investment in a given compartment. This study suggested that increasing intervention at a local level can optimize the system’s efficiency. Indeed, this perturbation both decreases surveillance and intervention costs and reduces the disease’s occurrence.

Conclusion

Loop analysis can be applied to disease mitigation systems. Its main strength is that it is easy to design, focusing on the signs of the interactions. It is a simple and flexible tool that could be used as a precursor to large-scale quantitative studies, to support reflection about disease mitigation systems structure and functioning.

Impact of virus strain characteristics on early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza infection in commercial table-egg layer flocks and implications for outbreak control

Early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection in commercial poultry flocks is a critical component of outbreak control. Reducing the time to detect HPAI infection can reduce the risk of disease transmission to other flocks. The timeliness of different types of detection triggers could be dependent on clinical signs that are first observed in a flock, signs that might vary due to HPAI virus strain characteristics. We developed a stochastic disease transmission model to evaluate how transmission characteristics of various HPAI strains might effect the relative importance of increased mortality, drop in egg production, or daily real-time reverse transcriptase (RRT)-PCR testing, toward detecting HPAI infection in a commercial table-egg layer flock. On average, daily RRT-PCR testing resulted in the shortest time to detection (from 3.5 to 6.1 days) depending on the HPAI virus strain and was less variable over a range of transmission parameters compared with other triggers evaluated. Our results indicate that a trigger to detect a drop in egg production would be useful for HPAI virus strains with long infectious periods (6-8 days) and including an egg-drop detection trigger in emergency response plans would lead to earlier and consistent reporting in some cases. We discuss implications for outbreak control and risk of HPAI spread attributed to different HPAI strain characteristics where an increase in mortality or a drop in egg production or both would be among the first clinical signs observed in an infected flock.

Vaccination of gallinaceous poultry for H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza: current questions and new technology

Vaccination of poultry for avian influenza virus (AIV) is a complex topic as there are numerous technical, logistic and regulatory aspects which must be considered. Historically, control of high pathogenicity (HP) AIV infection in poultry has been accomplished by eradication and stamping out when outbreaks occur locally. Since the H5N1 HPAIV from Asia has spread and become enzootic, vaccination has been used on a long-term basis by some countries to control the virus, other countries have used it temporarily to aid eradication efforts, while others have not used it at all. Currently, H5N1 HPAIV is considered enzootic in China, Egypt, Viet Nam, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia. All but Bangladesh and India have instituted vaccination programs for poultry. Importantly, the specifics of these programs differ to accommodate different situations, resources, and industry structure in each country. The current vaccines most commonly used are inactivated whole virus vaccines, but vectored vaccine use is increasing. Numerous technical improvements to these platforms and novel vaccine platforms for H5N1 vaccines have been reported, but most are not ready to be implemented in the field.

Implications of within-farm transmission for network dynamics: consequences for the spread of avian influenza

•

Cross-scale dynamics were investigated for avian influenza in British poultry.

•

Transmission risk is dependent on the assumed within-flock transmission mode.

•

Transmission risk may not scale with transmissibility or flock size.

•

Transmission risk corresponds with between-farm impact for 28% of farms.

•

These results have implications for targeted disease control at the farm-level.

The importance of considering coupled interactions across multiple population scales has not previously been studied for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the British commercial poultry industry. By simulating the within-flock transmission of HPAI using a deterministic S-E-I-R model, and by incorporating an additional environmental class representing infectious faeces, we tracked the build-up of infectious faeces within a poultry house over time. A measure of the transmission risk (TR) was computed for each farm by linking the amount of infectious faeces present each day of an outbreak with data describing the daily on-farm visit schedules for a major British catching company. Larger flocks tended to have greater levels of these catching-team visits. However, where density-dependent contact was assumed, faster outbreak detection (according to an assumed mortality threshold) led to a decreased opportunity for catching-team visits to coincide with an outbreak. For this reason, maximum TR-levels were found for mid-range flock sizes (~25,000–35,000 birds). When assessing all factors simultaneously using multivariable linear regression on the simulated outputs, those related to the pattern of catching-team visits had the largest effect on TR, with the most important movement-related factor depending on the mode of transmission. Using social network analysis on a further database to inform a measure of between-farm connectivity, we identified a large fraction of farms (28%) that had both a high TR and a high potential impact at the between farm level. Our results have counter-intuitive implications for between-farm spread that could not be predicted based on flock size alone, and together with further knowledge of the relative importance of transmission risk and impact, could have implications for improved targeting of control measures.

An epidemiologic simulation model of the spread and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) among commercial and backyard poultry flocks in South Carolina, United States

Epidemiologic simulation modeling of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks provides a useful conceptual framework with which to estimate the consequences of HPAI outbreaks and to evaluate disease control strategies. The purposes of this study were to establish detailed and informed input parameters for an epidemiologic simulation model of the H5N1 strain of HPAI among commercial and backyard poultry in the state of South Carolina in the United States using a highly realistic representation of this poultry population; to estimate the consequences of an outbreak of HPAI in this population with a model constructed from these parameters; and to briefly evaluate the sensitivity of model outcomes to several parameters. Parameters describing disease state durations; disease transmission via direct contact, indirect contact, and local-area spread; and disease detection, surveillance, and control were established through consultation with subject matter experts, a review of the current literature, and the use of several computational tools. The stochastic model constructed from these parameters produced simulated outbreaks ranging from 2 to 111 days in duration (median 25 days), during which 1 to 514 flocks were infected (median 28 flocks). Model results were particularly sensitive to the rate of indirect contact that occurs among flocks. The baseline model established in this study can be used in the future to evaluate various control strategies, as a tool for emergency preparedness and response planning, and to assess the costs associated with disease control and the economic consequences of a disease outbreak.

Estimating the per-contact probability of infection by highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N7) virus during the 2003 epidemic in The Netherlands

Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies. We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm. With these data, we used a maximum likelihood estimation approach to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced. The estimated conditional probabilities, conditional on the contact originating from an infectious farm, of virus transmission were: 0.000057 per infectious farm within 1 km per day, 0.000413 per infectious farm between 1 and 3 km per day, 0.0000895 per infectious farm between 3 and 10 km per day, 0.0011 per crisis organisation contact, 0.0414 per feed delivery contact, 0.308 per egg transport contact, 0.133 per other-professional contact and, 0.246 per rendering contact. We validate these outcomes against literature data on virus genetic sequences for outbreak farms. These estimates can be used to inform further studies on the role that improved biosecurity between contacts and/or contact frequency reduction can play in eliminating between-farm spread of the virus during future epidemics. The findings also highlight the need to; 1) understand the routes underlying the infections without traced contacts and, 2) to review whether the contact-tracing protocol is exhaustive in relation to all the farm’s day-to-day activities and practices.

Epidemic threats to the European Union: expert views on six virus groups

In recent years, several animal disease epidemics have occurred within the European Union (EU). At the 4th Annual Meeting of the EPIZONE network (7-10 June 2010, St. Malo, France), an interactive session was run to elicit the opinions of delegates on a pre-defined list of epidemic threats to the EU. Responses from over 190 delegates, to questions relating to impact and likelihood, were used to rank six virus groups with respect to their perceived threat now (2010) and in 2020. The combined opinions of all delegates suggested that, from the pre-selected list of virus groups, foot-and-mouth disease and influenza are currently of most concern. Delegates thought that influenza would be less of a threat and zoonotic arboviruses would be more of a threat in 2020. Although the virus group rankings should not be taken as definitive, the results could be used in conjunction with experimental and field data, by scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders when assessing and managing risks associated with these virus groups.

Cost analysis of various low pathogenic avian influenza surveillance systems in the Dutch egg layer sector

BACKGROUND

As low pathogenic avian influenza viruses can mutate into high pathogenic viruses the Dutch poultry sector implemented a surveillance system for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) based on blood samples. It has been suggested that egg yolk samples could be sampled instead of blood samples to survey egg layer farms. To support future decision making about AI surveillance economic criteria are important. Therefore a cost analysis is performed on systems that use either blood or eggs as sampled material.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The effectiveness of surveillance using egg or blood samples was evaluated using scenario tree models. Then an economic model was developed that calculates the total costs for eight surveillance systems that have equal effectiveness. The model considers costs for sampling, sample preparation, sample transport, testing, communication of test results and for the confirmation test on false positive results. The surveillance systems varied in sampled material (eggs or blood), sampling location (farm or packing station) and location of sample preparation (laboratory or packing station). It is shown that a hypothetical system in which eggs are sampled at the packing station and samples prepared in a laboratory had the lowest total costs (i.e. € 273,393) a year. Compared to this a hypothetical system in which eggs are sampled at the farm and samples prepared at a laboratory, and the currently implemented system in which blood is sampled at the farm and samples prepared at a laboratory have 6% and 39% higher costs respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study shows that surveillance for avian influenza on egg yolk samples can be done at lower costs than surveillance based on blood samples. The model can be used in future comparison of surveillance systems for different pathogens and hazards.

Moving-average trigger for early detection of rapidly increasing mortality in caged table-egg layers

Rapidly increasing and unexplained mortality in commercial poultry flocks may signal the presence of a highly transmissible and reportable disease. Activation of an infectious-disease surveillance system occurs when a key production parameter, i.e., mortality, changes. Various triggers have been proposed to alert producers when mortality exceeds normal limits for a given production system to enable early detection of such diseases. In this article we demonstrate that a simple moving-average trigger is useful for detecting any disease syndrome in caged table-egg layer flocks that manifests itself as sudden, rapidly increasing mortality. We superimposed HPAI disease mortality output data derived from a disease transmission model and from a naturally occurring HPAI outbreak onto normal mortality data from 12 healthy commercial egg-layer flocks, and compared the performance of 7-day moving-average triggers to previously proposed triggers. The moving-average trigger is more efficient, resulting in fewer false-positive alerts and an earlier time to disease detection. It can be easily calculated by using a computer spreadsheet providing only 7 days of mortality data and can be practically and inexpensively implemented by large commercial poultry integrators. A moving-average trigger can be an active component of a production-based surveillance system.

Genetic data from avian influenza and avian paramyxoviruses generated by the European network of excellence (EPIZONE) between 2006 and 2011--review and recommendations for surveillance

Since 2006, the members of the molecular epidemiological working group of the European "EPIZONE" network of excellence have been generating sequence data on avian influenza and avian paramyxoviruses from both European and African sources in an attempt to more fully understand the circulation and impact of these viruses. This review presents a timely update on the epidemiological situation of these viruses based on sequence data generated during the lifetime of this project in addition to data produced by other groups during the same period. Based on this information and putting it all into a European context, recommendations for continued surveillance of these important viruses within Europe are presented.

Accessible and inexpensive tools for global HPAI surveillance: A mobile-phone based system

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) disproportionately impacts poor livestock keepers in southern countries. Although the estimated cost of the disease in the billions, response to the epidemic remains fragmented and information channels slow. Given the continuing threat of outbreaks, and what appears to be the politicisation of outbreak reporting, new tools are needed to enforce transparency in stakeholder communication. In response to this need, we created a mobile-phone based surveillance system to aid critical information transfer among policy makers, practitioners and the poor themselves. The tool operates at the local, national and global levels and further links decision-makers to international databases.

The pathogenesis of low pathogenicity H7 avian influenza viruses in chickens, ducks and turkeys

Background

Avian influenza (AI) viruses infect numerous avian species, and low pathogenicity (LP) AI viruses of the H7 subtype are typically reported to produce mild or subclinical infections in both wild aquatic birds and domestic poultry. However relatively little work has been done to compare LPAI viruses from different avian species for their ability to cause disease in domestic poultry under the same conditions. In this study twelve H7 LPAI virus isolates from North America were each evaluated for their comparative pathogenesis in chickens, ducks, and turkeys.

Results

All 12 isolates were able to infect all three species at a dose of 10⁶ 50% egg infectious doses based on seroconversion, although not all animals seroconverted with each isolate-species combination. The severity of disease varied among isolate and species combinations, but there was a consistent trend for clinical disease to be most severe in turkeys where all 12 isolates induced disease, and mortality was observed in turkeys exposed to 9 of the 12 viruses. Turkeys also shed virus by the oral and cloacal routes at significantly higher titers than either ducks or chickens at numerous time points. Only 3 isolates induced observable clinical disease in ducks and only 6 isolates induced disease in chickens, which was generally very mild and did not result in mortality. Full genome sequence was completed for all 12 isolates and some isolates did have features consistent with adaptation to poultry (e.g. NA stalk deletions), however none of these features correlated with disease severity.

Conclusions

The data suggests that turkeys may be more susceptible to clinical disease from the H7 LPAI viruses included in this study than either chickens or ducks. However the severity of disease and degree of virus shed was not clearly correlated with any isolate or group of isolates, but relied on specific species and isolate combinations.

Isolation of a low pathogenic avian influenza virus (H7N7) from a black kite (Milvus migrans) in Egypt in 2005

Avian influenza is endemic in some species of wild birds and is generally believed to cause only an asymptomatic infection. These viruses are routinely transmitted from this wild bird reservoir to poultry in many areas all over the world. Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) was previously reported in Egypt from different types of wild birds. This report describes the isolation and genetic characterization of H7N7 LPAI virus from a black kite (Milvus migrans), the first reported from this species, during surveillance done on wild birds in 2005. The black kite is a migratory bird that has breeding habitat in Europe and migrates in the winter to North Africa and the Middle East. Eight samples were collected in South Sinai, Egypt, and tested by virus isolation in embryonating chicken eggs. One sample had positive hemagglutination activity after the second passage in specific-pathogen-free embryos. Virus identification and characterization were done and the isolate was confirmed as H7N7 LPAI. The sequence data showed that this isolate was most closely related to European H7 strains isolated from domestic and wild birds.

Stochastic model of the potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza from an infected commercial broiler operation in Georgia

The potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza among commercial broiler farms in Georgia, U. S. A., was mathematically modeled. The dynamics of the spread within the first infected flock were estimated using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) deterministic model, and predicted that grower detection of flock infection is most likely 5 days after virus introduction. Off-farm spread of virus was estimated stochastically for this period, predicting a mean range of exposed farms from 0-5, depending on the density of farms in the area. Modeled off-farm spread was most frequently associated with feed trucks (highest daily probability and number of farm visits) and with company personnel or hired help (highest level of bird contact).

Low-pathogenic notifiable avian influenza serosurveillance and the risk of infection in poultry - a critical review of the European Union active surveillance programme (2005-2007)

Please cite this paper as: Gonzales et al. (2010) Low‐pathogenic notifiable avian influenza serosurveillance and the risk of infection in poultry – a critical review of the European Union active surveillance programme (2005–2007). Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(2), 91–99.

Background  Since 2003, Member States (MS) of the European Union (EU) have implemented serosurveillance programmes for low pathogenic notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) in poultry. To date, there is the need to evaluate the surveillance activity in order to optimize the programme’s surveillance design.

Objectives  To evaluate MS sampling operations [sample size and targeted poultry types (PTs)] and its relation with the probability of detection and to estimate the PTs relative risk (RR) of being infected.

Methods  Reported data of the surveillance carried out from 2005 to 2007 were analyzed using: (i) descriptive indicators to characterize both MS sampling operations and its relation with the probability of detection and the LPNAI epidemiological situation, and (ii) multivariable methods to estimate each PTs RR of being infected.

Results  Member States sampling a higher sample size than that recommended by the EU had a significantly higher probability of detection. Poultry types with ducks & geese, game‐birds, ratites and “others” had a significant higher RR of being seropositive than chicken categories. The seroprevalence in duck & geese and game‐bird holdings appears to be higher than 5%, which is the EU‐recommended design prevalence (DP), while in chicken and turkey categories the seroprevalence was considerably lower than 5% and with that there is the risk of missing LPNAI seropositive holdings.

Conclusion  It is recommended that the European Commission discusses with its MS whether the results of our evaluation calls for refinement of the surveillance characteristics such as sampling frequency, the between‐holding DP and MS sampling operation strategies.

A quantitative assessment of the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain via legal trade of live poultry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is considered one of the most important diseases of poultry. During the last 9 years, HPAI epidemics have been reported in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and in 18 countries of the European Union (EU). For that reason, it is possible that the risk for HPAI virus (HPAIV) introduction into Spain may have recently increased. Because of the EU free-trade policy and because legal trade of live poultry was considered an important route for HPAI spread in certain regions of the world, there are fears that Spain may become HPAIV-infected as a consequence of the legal introduction of live poultry. However, no quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into Spain or into any other EU member state via the trade of poultry has been published in the peer-reviewed literature. This article presents the results of the first quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into a free country via legal trade of live poultry, along with estimates of the geographical variation of the risk and of the relative contribution of exporting countries and susceptible poultry species to the risk. The annual mean risk for HPAI introduction into Spain was estimated to be as low as 1.36 x 10(-3), suggesting that under prevailing conditions, introduction of HPAIV into Spain through the trade of live poultry is unlikely to occur. Moreover, these results support the hypothesis that legal trade of live poultry does not impose a significant risk for the spread of HPAI into EU member states.

Food safety in free-range and organic livestock systems: risk management and responsibility

Animal production systems that offer outdoor access to the animals have become increasingly popular in the Western world due to the growing general discontent of consumers with conventional bioindustrial farming practices. These open production systems offer improved animal welfare but may create new problems for animal health, resulting in increased food safety risks from bacterial, viral, or parasitic infections or environmental contaminants. Examples of these new problems include increased Toxoplasma gondii infections in pigs and high dioxin levels in eggs from free-range hens. In this review, the relation between positive and negative points of free-range and organic livestock production systems is discussed with reference to production in The Netherlands. We investigated how proponents of more animal welfare friendly systems deal with potential negative issues in public and whether any risk communication is used. Generally, we found that the existence of a dilemma is disputed or avoided in communication with the consumer. This avoidance could be detrimental for public trust in alternative animal production systems, should problems occur. To prevent future problems, it will be necessary to communicate about the relevant types and sources of the food safety risks to the consumers. The responsibility for protecting food safety should be properly divided among the various parties involved: producers, processors, governments, nongovernmental organizations, and consumers.