Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, and Free State provinces of South Africa in January 2021

Rapid antigen test as a screening tool for SARS-CoV-2 infection: Head-to-head comparison with qRT-PCR in Ethiopia

Objective

This study aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) as a screening tool for SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to Quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR).

Methods

This study was conducted at six referral hospitals in Oromia Region, Ethiopia. One thousand seven hundred twenty-one patients who visited the hospitals for various medical conditions were tested with qRT-PCR and/or Ag-RDTs. Qualitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigen was performed using the Panbio™ COVID-19 Ag rapid test device.

Results

Compared with qRT-PCR, Ag-RDTs had a sensitivity of 33.3 % (95%CI: 30.9%-35.9 %) and a specificity of 99.3 % (95%CI: 98.8%-99.7 %) to detect active SARS-CoV-2 infection. The area under the receiver operator curve was 0.67 (95%CI: 0.63-0.69). The sensitivity of Ag-RDTs appeared high in patients with shortness of breath (73.3 %) and those presenting with all three symptoms - fever, cough, and dyspnea (71.4 %). In all instances, specificity was more than 98 %. The Ag-RDT positivity rate also correlated well with viral load: 51.7 % in cases with cycle threshold (Ct) < 25 (high viral load) and only 3.4 % when Ct > 25 (low viral load).

Conclusion

Although Ag-RDT for diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 is a good option as a point-of-care screening tool, it has a low sensitivity to detect active infections. Using Panbio™ COVID-19 Ag Rapid test for diagnostic and treatment decisions may lead to a false negative, resulting in patient misdiagnosis, ultimately contributing to disease spread and poor patient outcome.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Republic of Congo, February 2022

In resource-limited countries, the lack of widespread screening masks the true situation of COVID-19. We conducted this study to assess SARS-CoV-2 spread by detection of specific antibodies and to determine associated factors. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted. Subjects were tested for the presence of two antibodies (IgM and IgG) specific to SARS-CoV-2. Data collection was done using a smartphone with the KoboCollect application. Prevalence of antibodies was estimated with 95% confidence intervals. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with positive serological test. A total of 9,094 persons were tested in 4,340 households. The mean age was 30.18 ± 18.65 years, 46.5% male. The overall seroprevalence (prevalence, 95% CI) of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was (48.2% [47.2%-49.2%]). Being vaccinated, having been in contact with a COVID-19 patient, being older than 50 years, living in a union, having secondary education and having tertiary education were factors independently associated with the likelihood of having anti-sars-CoV-2. We estimate in February 2022 that 48% persons had antibodies against the COVID-19 virus, more among those vaccinated. Vaccination intensification in low prevalence departments will reduce the risk of new outbreaks.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G in HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

KwaZulu-Natal ranked second highest among South African provinces for the number of laboratory-confirmed cases during the second wave of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among certain vulnerable groups, such as people living with HIV in KwaZulu-Natal, is unknown.

Objective

The study aimed to determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) in HIV-positive versus HIV-negative patients.

Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of residual clinical blood specimens unrelated to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) submitted for diagnostic testing at Inkosi Albert Luthuli Central Hospital, Durban, from 10 November 2020 to 09 February 2021. Specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G on the Abbott Architect analyser.

Results

A total of 1977/8829 (22.4%) specimens were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seroprevalence varied between health districts from 16.4% to 37.3%, and was 19% in HIV-positive and 35.3% in HIV-negative specimens. Seroprevalence was higher among female patients (23.6% vs 19.8%; p < 0.0001) and increased with increasing age, with a statistically significant difference between the farthest age groups (< 10 years and > 79 years; p < 0.0001). The seroprevalence increased from 17% on 10 November 2020 to 43% on 09 February 2021 during the second wave.

Conclusion

Our results highlight that during the second COVID-19 wave in KwaZulu-Natal a large proportion of people living with HIV were still immunologically susceptible. The reduced seropositivity in people with virological failure further emphasises the importance of targeted vaccination and vaccine response monitoring in these individuals.

What the study adds

This study contributes to data on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence before and during the second wave in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which has the highest HIV prevalence globally. Reduced seropositivity was found among people living with HIV with virological failure, highlighting the importance of targeted booster vaccination and vaccine response monitoring.

Seroprevalence and SARS-CoV-2 invasion in general populations: A scoping review over the first year of the pandemic

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, counting infected people has underestimated asymptomatic cases. This literature scoping review assessed the seroprevalence progression in general populations worldwide over the first year of the pandemic. Seroprevalence studies were searched in PubMed, Web of Science and medRxiv databases up to early April 2021. Inclusion criteria were a general population of all ages or blood donors as a proxy. All articles were screened for the title and abstract by two readers, and data were extracted from selected articles. Discrepancies were resolved with a third reader. From 139 articles (including 6 reviews), the seroprevalence estimated in 41 countries ranged from 0 to 69%, with a heterogenous increase over time and continents, unevenly distributed among countries (differences up to 69%) and sometimes among regions within a country (up to 10%). The seroprevalence of asymptomatic cases ranged from 0% to 31.5%. Seropositivity risk factors included low income, low education, low smoking frequency, deprived area residency, high number of children, densely populated centres, and presence of a case in a household. This review of seroprevalence studies over the first year of the pandemic documented the progression of this virus across the world in time and space and the risk factors that influenced its spread.

Homologous Ad26.COV2.S vaccination results in reduced boosting of humoral responses in hybrid immunity, but elicits antibodies of similar magnitude regardless of prior infection

The impact of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on the durability of Ad26.COV2.S vaccine-elicited responses, and the effect of homologous boosting has not been well explored. We followed a cohort of healthcare workers for 6 months after receiving the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine and a further one month after they received an Ad26.COV2.S booster dose. We assessed longitudinal spike-specific antibody and T cell responses in individuals who had never had SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to those who were infected with either the D614G or Beta variants prior to vaccination. Antibody and T cell responses elicited by the primary dose were durable against several variants of concern over the 6 month follow-up period, regardless of infection history. However, at 6 months after first vaccination, antibody binding, neutralization and ADCC were as much as 33-fold higher in individuals with hybrid immunity compared to those with no prior infection. Antibody cross-reactivity profiles of the previously infected groups were similar at 6 months, unlike at earlier time points suggesting that the effect of immune imprinting diminishes by 6 months. Importantly, an Ad26.COV2.S booster dose increased the magnitude of the antibody response in individuals with no prior infection to similar levels as those with previous infection. The magnitude of spike T cell responses and proportion of T cell responders remained stable after homologous boosting, concomitant with a significant increase in long-lived early differentiated CD4 memory T cells. Thus, these data highlight that multiple antigen exposures, whether through infection and vaccination or vaccination alone, result in similar boosts after Ad26.COV2.S vaccination.

Durability of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine and hybrid humoral immunity against variants including omicron BA.1 and BA.4 6 months after vaccination (COV005): a post-hoc analysis of a randomised, phase 1b-2a trial

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccine rollout is lagging in Africa, where there has been a high rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to evaluate the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection before vaccination with the ChAdOx-nCoV19 (AZD1222) vaccine on antibody responses through to 180 days.

METHODS

We did an unmasked post-hoc immunogenicity analysis after the first and second doses of AZD1222 in a randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 1b-2a study done in seven locations in South Africa. AZD1222 recipients who were HIV-uninfected, were stratified into baseline seropositive or seronegative groups using the serum anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) immunoglobulin G (IgG) electroluminescence immunoassay to establish SARS-CoV-2 infection before the first dose of AZD1222. Binding IgG to spike (anti-S) and receptor binding domain (anti-RBD) were measured before the first dose (day 0), second dose (day 28), day 42, and day 180. Neutralising antibody (NAb) against SARS-CoV-2 variants D614G, beta, delta, gamma, and A.VOI.V2, and omicron BA1 and BA.4 variants, were measured by pseudovirus assay (day 28, day 42, and day 180). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04444674, and the Pan African Clinicals Trials Registry, PACTR202006922165132.

FINDINGS

Of 185 individuals who were randomly assigned to AZD1222, we included 91 individuals who were baseline seropositive and 58 who were baseline seronegative, in the final analysis. In the seropositive group, there was little change of anti-S IgG (and anti-RBD IgG) or neutralising antibody (NAb) titres at day 42 compared with at day 28. Anti-S (and anti-RBD) IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) were higher throughout in the seropositive compared with the seronegative group, including at day 180 (GMCs 517·8 [95% CI 411·3-651·9] vs 82·1 [55·2-122·3] BAU/mL). Also D614G NAb geometric mean titres (GMTs) were higher in the seropositive group than the seronegative group, as was the percentage with titres of at least 185 (80% putative risk reduction threshold [PRRT] against wild-type-alpha COVID-19), including at day 180 (92·0% [74·0-99·0] vs 18·2% [2·3-51·8). Similar findings were observed for beta, A.VOI.V2, and gamma. For delta, BA.1, and BA.4, NAb GMTs and the proportion with titres above the PRRT were substantially higher in the seropositive compared with seronegative group at day 28 and day 42, but no longer differed between the groups by day 180.

INTERPRETATION

A single dose of AZD1222 in the general African population, where COVID-19 vaccine coverage is low and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity is 90%, could enhance the magnitude and quality of antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the South African Medical Research Council, the UK Research and Innovation, the UK National Institute for Health Research, and the South African Medical Research Council.

TRANSLATION

For the Zulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

SARS CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Selected States of High and Low Disease Burden in Nigeria

IMPORTANCE

The global impact of COVID-19 has led to an increased need to continuously assess disease surveillance tools. The utility of SARS-CoV-2 serologic tools in determining immunity levels across different age groups and locations in helping to quickly assess the burden of COVID-19 with significant health policy implications is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies with respect to the age group and sex of participants.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A cross-sectional survey of 4904 individuals across 12 states with high and low COVID-19 disease burden in Nigeria was carried out between June 29 and August 21, 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used for the detection of specific SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G and immunoglobulin M antibodies, such as the nucleocapsid protein-NCP and spike protein S1. Interviewer-administered questionnaires provided information on participants' history of disease and associated risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 4904 individuals participated in the study (3033 were female [61.8%]; mean [SD] age, 26.7 [6.51] years). A high seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (78.9%) was obtained. Seropositivity was consistent across the states surveyed, ranging from 69.8% in Lagos to 87.7% in Borno. There was no association between sex and seropositivity (female, 2414 [79.6%]; male, 1456 [77.8%]; P = .61); however, an association was noted between age and seropositivity, with the peak prevalence observed in participants aged 15 to 19 years (616 [83.6%]; P = .001). Similarly, loss of appetite (751 [82.3%]; P = .04) and smell (309 [84.4%]; P = .01) were associated with seropositivity.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, a high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was obtained among the study population during the low level of vaccination at the time of the survey. Thus, there is a need for both an efficacy and antibody neutralization test study to ascertain the efficacy of the antibody detected and the potential for herd immunity in Nigeria.

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 in Blood Donors: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Determining the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in blood donors makes the control of virus circulation possible in healthy people and helps implement strategies to reduce virus transmission. The purpose of the study was to examine the seroprevalence of COVID-19 in blood donors using systematic review and meta-analysis.

Materials and Methods

The electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and the Google Scholar search engine were searched using standard keywords up to 2022-04-26. The variance of each study was calculated according to the binomial distribution. Studies were combined according to the sample size and variance. Q Cochrane test and I2 index were used to examine the heterogeneity of the studies. Data analysis was performed in STATA 14 software, and the significance level of the tests was P < 0.05.

Results

In the 28 papers examined with 227894 samples, the seroprevalence of COVID-19 in blood donors was 10% (95% CI: 9%, 11%), estimated 5% (95% CI: 4%, 7%) among men and 6% (95% CI: 4%, 7%) among women. This rate in different blood groups was as follows: A 12% (95% CI: 10%-14%), B 12% (95% CI: 10%-15%), AB 9% (95% CI: 7%-12%), and O 13% (95% CI: 11%-16%). The seroprevalence of COVID-19 in blood donors in North America 10%, Europe 7%, Asia 23%, South America 5%, and Africa was 4%; Moreover, the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies was estimated to be 23% (95% CI: 18%-29%) and IgM 29% (95% CI: 9%-49%).

Conclusion

The highest prevalence of COVID-19 serum in women blood donors was among blood group O and Asia. The seroprevalence of IgG and IgM antibodies was high too.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and antibody seroprevalence in routine surveillance patients, healthcare workers and general population in Kita region, Mali: an observational study 2020-2021

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the degree of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among healthcare workers (HCWs) and general population in Kita region of Mali.

DESIGN

Routine surveillance in 12 health facilities, HCWs serosurvey in five health facilities and community serosurvey in 16 villages in or near Kita town, Mali.

SETTING

Kita region, western Mali; local health centres around the central (regional) referral health centre.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients in routine surveillance, HCWs in local health centres and community members of all ages in populations associated with study health centres.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Seropositivity of ELISA test detecting SARS-CoV-2-specific total antibodies and real-time RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

From 2392 routine surveillance samples, 68 (2.8%, 95% CI: 2.2% to 3.6%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. The monthly positivity rate was 0% in June-August 2020 and gradually increased to 6% by December 2020 and 6.2% by January 2021, then declined to 5.5%, 3.3%, 3.6% and 0.8% in February, March, April and May 2021, respectively. From 397 serum samples collected from 113 HCWs, 175 (44.1%, 95% CI: 39.1% to 49.1%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The monthly seroprevalence was around 10% from September to November 2020 and increased to over 40% from December 2020 to May 2021. For community serosurvey in December 2020, overall seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 27.7%. The highest age-stratified seroprevalence was observed in participants aged 60-69 years (45.5%, 95% CI: 32.3% to 58.6%). The lowest was in children aged 0-9 years (14.0%, 95% CI: 7.4% to 20.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 in rural Mali is much more widespread than assumed by national testing data and particularly in the older population and frontline HCWs. The observation is contrary to the widely expressed view, based on limited data, that COVID-19 infection rates were lower in 2020-2021 in West Africa than in other settings.

The intersection of age, sex, race and socioeconomic status in COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths in South Africa

Older age, male sex, and non-white race have been reported to be risk factors for COVID-19 mortality. Few studies have explored how these intersecting factors contribute to COVID-19 outcomes. This study aimed to compare demographic characteristics and trends in SARS-CoV-2 admissions and the health care they received. Hospital admission data were collected through DATCOV, an active national COVID-19 surveillance programme. Descriptive analysis was used to compare admissions and deaths by age, sex, race, and health sector as a proxy for socio-economic status. COVID-19 mortality and healthcare utilisation were compared by race using random effect multivariable logistic regression models. On multivariable analysis, black African patients (adjusted OR [aOR] 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2, 1.3), coloured patients (aOR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1, 1.3), and patients of Indian descent (aOR 1.2, 95% CI 1.2, 1.3) had increased risk of in-hospital COVID-19 mortality compared to white patients; and admission in the public health sector (aOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.5, 1.6) was associated with increased risk of mortality compared to those in the private sector. There were higher percentages of COVID-19 hospitalised individuals treated in ICU, ventilated, and treated with supplemental oxygen in the private compared to the public sector. There were increased odds of non-white patients being treated in ICU or ventilated in the private sector, but decreased odds of black African patients being treated in ICU (aOR 0.5; 95% CI 0.4, 0.5) or ventilated (aOR 0.5; 95% CI 0.4, 0.6) compared to white patients in the public sector. These findings demonstrate the importance of collecting and analysing data on race and socio-economic status to ensure that disease control measures address the most vulnerable populations affected by COVID-19.

Estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in eight provinces of South Africa in November 2021

In line with previous instalments of analysis from this ongoing study to monitor 'Covid Seroprevalence' among blood donors in South Africa, we report on analysis of 3395 samples obtained from 8 to 12 November 2021 in all provinces of South Africa except the Western Cape. As in our previous analyses, we see no evidence of age and sex dependence of prevalence, but substantial variation by province, and by race within each province, from which we generated provincial total point estimates (EC-74%; FS-75%; GP-68%; ZN-73%; LP-66; MP-73%; NC-63%; NW-81% ) and a 'South Africa minus Western Cape' national prevalence estimate of 71% (95%CI 69-74%). We note that sample collection occurred just before the omicron variant driven wave in South Africa, but otherwise present these results without significant interpretation.

SARS-CoV-2 evolved during advanced HIV disease immunosuppression has Beta-like escape of vaccine and Delta infection elicited immunity

Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 evolution in specific geographies may help predict the properties of variants coming from these regions. We mapped neutralization of a SARS-CoV-2 strain that evolved over 6 months from the ancestral virus in a person with advanced HIV disease. Infection was before the emergence of the Beta variant first identified in South Africa, and the Delta variant. We compared early and late evolved virus to the ancestral, Beta, Alpha, and Delta viruses and tested against convalescent plasma from ancestral, Beta, and Delta infections. Early virus was similar to ancestral, whereas late virus was similar to Beta, exhibiting vaccine escape and, despite pre-dating Delta, strong escape of Delta-elicited neutralization. This example is consistent with the notion that variants arising in immune-compromised hosts, including those with advanced HIV disease, may evolve immune escape of vaccines and enhanced escape of Delta immunity, with implications for vaccine breakthrough and reinfections.

HIGHLIGHTS

A prolonged ancestral SARS-CoV-2 infection pre-dating the emergence of Beta and Delta resulted in evolution of a Beta-like serological phenotypeSerological phenotype includes strong escape from Delta infection elicited immunity, intermediate escape from ancestral virus immunity, and weak escape from Beta immunityEvolved virus showed substantial but incomplete escape from antibodies elicited by BNT162b2 vaccination.

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa

Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and risk factors among healthy blood donors in Luanda, Angola

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China and spread throughout the world due to its rapid transmission. The exposure rate in the healthy population is unknown, mainly in resource-limited countries. Herein, we estimated the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and risk factors among blood donors in Luanda, the capital city of Angola.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study conducted with 343 blood donors. Chi-square and logistic regression were calculated to predict the independent variable for SARS-CoV-2 infection and deemed significant when p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 was 4.7%. Positivity rates varied to age groups (3.5-14.3%), gender (0-5%), area of residence (3.1-.6%), educational level (5.1-10.2%), occupation (4.4-7.7%), and the blood donor category (2.0-5.1%). Past and recent infections were detected in 3.2% and 1.5%, respectively. Blood donors under the age of 20 years (OR: 4.58, p = 0.241) and from non-urbanized areas (OR: 1.86, p = 0.293) presented a high risk related to infection. The infection was higher in blood group A and lower in blood group O. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection has increased from January 2020 (OR: 0.03, p = 0.001) to August 2020 (OR: 0.57, p = 0.426).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide an estimate of the exposure of healthy blood donors in Luanda. Also, we detected anti-SARS-CoV-2 in January 2020, indicating that the SARS-CoV-2 could have been imported during the first month of 2020. Further studies should be performed to assess the exposure rate in different groups from Angola.

Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa

Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.

Cost, supply and logistics present challenges to COVID-19 vaccine rollout in low and middle income countries. Here, the authors model vaccination programmes in South Africa and demonstrate the importance of the pace of vaccine rollout, with even moderately efficacious vaccines likely to be cost-effective.

What Could Explain the Lower COVID-19 Burden in Africa despite Considerable Circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus?

The differential spread and impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), causing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), across regions is a major focus for researchers and policy makers. Africa has attracted tremendous attention, due to predictions of catastrophic impacts that have not yet materialized. Early in the pandemic, the seemingly low African case count was largely attributed to low testing and case reporting. However, there is reason to consider that many African countries attenuated the spread and impacts early on. Factors explaining low spread include early government community-wide actions, population distribution, social contacts, and ecology of human habitation. While recent data from seroprevalence studies posit more extensive circulation of the virus, continuing low COVID-19 burden may be explained by the demographic pyramid, prevalence of pre-existing conditions, trained immunity, genetics, and broader sociocultural dynamics. Though all these prongs contribute to the observed profile of COVID-19 in Africa, some provide stronger evidence than others. This review is important to expand what is known about the differential impacts of pandemics, enhancing scientific understanding and gearing appropriate public health responses. Furthermore, it highlights potential lessons to draw from Africa for global health on assumptions regarding deadly viral pandemics, given its long experience with infectious diseases.

Temporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya

Observed SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths are low in tropical Africa raising questions about the extent of transmission. We measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG by ELISA in 9,922 blood donors across Kenya and adjusted for sampling bias and test performance. By 1st September 2020, 577 COVID-19 deaths were observed nationwide and seroprevalence was 9.1% (95%CI 7.6-10.8%). Seroprevalence in Nairobi was 22.7% (18.0-27.7%). Although most people remained susceptible, SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely in Kenya with apparently low associated mortality.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2, Symptom Profiles and Sero-Neutralization in a Suburban Area, France

The World Health Organisation recommends monitoring the circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We investigated anti-SARS-CoV-2 total immunoglobulin (IgT) antibody seroprevalence and in vitro sero-neutralization in Nancy, France, in spring 2020. Individuals were randomly sampled from electoral lists and invited with household members over 5 years old to be tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 (IgT, i.e., IgA/IgG/IgM) antibodies by ELISA (Bio-rad); the sero-neutralization activity was evaluated on Vero CCL-81 cells. Among 2006 individuals, the raw seroprevalence was 2.1% (95% confidence interval 1.5 to 2.9), was highest for 20- to 34-year-old participants (4.7% (2.3 to 8.4)), within than out of socially deprived area (2.5% vs. 1%, p = 0.02) and with than without intra-family infection (p < 10^-6). Moreover, 25% of participants presented at least one COVID-19 symptom associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity (p < 10^-13), with highly discriminant anosmia or ageusia (odds ratio 27.8 [13.9 to 54.5]); 16.3% (6.8 to 30.7) of seropositive individuals were asymptomatic. Positive sero-neutralization was demonstrated in vitro for 31/43 seropositive subjects. Regarding the very low seroprevalence, a preventive effect of the lockdown in March 2020 can be assumed for the summer, but a second COVID-19 wave, as expected, could be subsequently observed in this poorly immunized population.

Higher COVID-19 mortality in low-income communities in the City of Cape Town - a descriptive ecological study

Background Cape Town, a South African city with high levels of economic inequality, has gone through two COVID-19 waves. There is evidence globally that low-income communities experience higher levels of morbidity and mortality during the pandemic. Methods Age-standardized COVID-19 mortality in the eight sub-districts of Cape Town was compared by economic indicators taken from the most recent Census (unemployment rate, monthly income). Results The overall Standardized Death Rate (SDR) for COVID-19 in Cape Town was 1 640 per million, but there was wide variation across the different sub-districts. A linear relationship was seen between sub-districts with high poverty and high COVID-19 SDRs. Conclusions Low-income communities in Cape Town experienced higher levels of COVID-19 mortality. As we continue to contend with COVID-19, these communities need to be prioritized for access to quality health care.

Rapidly increasing SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and limited clinical disease in three Malian communities: a prospective cohort study

Background

The extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure and transmission in Mali and the surrounding region is not well understood, although infection has been confirmed in nearly 14,000 symptomatic individuals and their contacts since the first case in March 2020. We aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in three Malian communities, and understand factors associated with infection.

Methods

Between 27 July 2020 and 29 January 2021, we collected blood samples along with demographic, social, medical and self-reported symptoms information from residents aged 6 months and older in three study communities at two study visits. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured using a highly specific two-antigen ELISA optimized for use in Mali. We calculated cumulative adjusted seroprevalence for each site and evaluated factors associated with serostatus at each visit by univariate and multivariate analysis.

Findings

Overall, 94.8% (2533/2672) of participants completed both study visits. A total of 50.3% (1343/2672) of participants were male, and 31.3% (837/2672) were aged <10 years, 27.6% (737/2672) were aged 10-17 years, and 41.1% (1098/2572) were aged ≥18 years. The cumulative SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate was 58.5% (95% CI: 47.5 to 69.4). This varied between sites and was 73.4% (95% CI: 59.2 to 87.5) in the urban community of Sotuba, 53.2% (95% CI: 42.8 to 63.6) in the rural town of Bancoumana, and 37.1% (95% CI: 29.6 to 44.5) in the rural village of Donéguébougou. This equates to an infection rate of approximately 1% of the population every three days in the study communities between visits. Increased age and study site were associated with serostatus at both study visits. There was minimal difference in reported symptoms based on serostatus.

Interpretation

The true extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Mali is greater than previously reported and now approaches hypothetical herd immunity in urban areas. The epidemiology of the pandemic in the region may be primarily subclinical and within background illness rates. In this setting, ongoing surveillance and augmentation of diagnostics to characterize locally circulating variants will be critical to implement effective mitigation strategies like vaccines.

Funding

This project was funded by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, and National Cancer Institute.

COVID-19 PREDICTION IN SOUTH AFRICA: ESTIMATING THE UNASCERTAINED CASES- THE HIDDEN PART OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ICEBERG

Understanding the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions as well as accounting for the unascertained cases remain critical challenges for epidemiological models for understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 spread. In this paper, we propose a new epidemiological model (eSEIRD) that extends the widely used epidemiological models such as extended Susceptible-Infected-Removed model (eSIR) and SAPHIRE (initially developed and used for analyzing data from Wuhan). We fit these models to the daily ascertained infected (and removed) cases from March 15, 2020 to Dec 31, 2020 in South Africa that reported the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths from the WHO African region. Using the eSEIRD model, the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South Africa was characterized by the estimated basic reproduction number (R 0) starting at 3.22 (95%CrI: [3.19, 3.23]) then dropping below 2 following a mandatory lockdown implementation and subsequently increasing to 3.27 (95%CrI: [3.27, 3.27]) by the end of 2020. The initial decrease of effective reproduction number followed by an increase suggest the effectiveness of early interventions and the combined effect of relaxing strict interventions and emergence of a new coronavirus variant in South Africa. The low estimated ascertainment rate was found to vary from 1.65% to 9.17% across models and time periods. The overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) was estimated as 0.06% (95%CrI: [0.04%, 0.22%]) accounting for unascertained cases and deaths while the reported case fatality ratio was 2.88% (95% CrI: [2.45%, 6.01%]). The models predict that from December 31, 2020, to April 1, 2021, the predicted cumulative number of infected would reach roughly 70% of total population in South Africa. Besides providing insights on the COVID-19 dynamics in South Africa, we develop powerful forecasting tools that enable estimation of ascertainment rates and IFR while quantifying the effect of intervention measures on COVID-19 spread.