Islet Autoimmunity and HLA Markers of Presymptomatic and Clinical Type 1 Diabetes: Joint Analyses of Prospective Cohort Studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S

Childhood screening for type 1 diabetes comparing automated multiplex Antibody Detection by Agglutination-PCR (ADAP) with single plex islet autoantibody radiobinding assays

BACKGROUND

Two or more autoantibodies against either insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), islet antigen-2 (IA-2A) or zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A) denote stage 1 (normoglycemia) or stage 2 (dysglycemia) type 1 diabetes prior to stage 3 type 1 diabetes. Automated multiplex Antibody Detection by Agglutination-PCR (ADAP) assays in two laboratories were compared to single plex radiobinding assays (RBA) to define threshold levels for diagnostic specificity and sensitivity.

METHODS

IAA, GADA, IA-2A and ZnT8A were analysed in 1504 (54% females) population based controls (PBC), 456 (55% females) doctor's office controls (DOC) and 535 (41% females) blood donor controls (BDC) as well as in 2300 (48% females) patients newly diagnosed (1-10 years of age) with stage 3 type 1 diabetes. The thresholds for autoantibody positivity were computed in 100 10-fold cross-validations to separate patients from controls either by maximizing the χ2-statistics (chisq) or using the 98th percentile of specificity (Spec98). Mean and 95% CI for threshold, sensitivity and specificity are presented.

FINDINGS

The ADAP ROC curves of the four autoantibodies showed comparable AUC in the two ADAP laboratories and were higher than RBA. Detection of two or more autoantibodies using chisq showed 0.97 (0.95, 0.99) sensitivity and 0.94 (0.91, 0.97) specificity in ADAP compared to 0.90 (0.88, 0.95) sensitivity and 0.97 (0.94, 0.98) specificity in RBA. Using Spec98, ADAP showed 0.92 (0.89, 0.95) sensitivity and 0.99 (0.98, 1.00) specificity compared to 0.89 (0.77, 0.86) sensitivity and 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) specificity in the RBA. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were higher in PBC compared to DOC and BDC.

INTERPRETATION

ADAP was comparable in two laboratories, both comparable to or better than RBA, to define threshold levels for two or more autoantibodies to stage type 1 diabetes.

FUNDING

Supported by The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust (grant number 2009-04078), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research (Dnr IRC15-0067) and the Swedish Research Council, Strategic Research Area (Dnr 2009-1039). AL was supported by the DiaUnion collaborative study, co-financed by EU Interreg ÖKS, Capital Region of Denmark, Region Skåne and the Novo Nordisk Foundation.

Islet autoantibodies as precision diagnostic tools to characterize heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Islet autoantibodies form the foundation for type 1 diabetes (T1D) diagnosis and staging, but heterogeneity exists in T1D development and presentation. We hypothesized that autoantibodies can identify heterogeneity before, at, and after T1D diagnosis, and in response to disease-modifying therapies.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed PubMed and EMBASE databases (6/14/2022) assessing 10 years of original research examining relationships between autoantibodies and heterogeneity before, at, after diagnosis, and in response to disease-modifying therapies in individuals at-risk or within 1 year of T1D diagnosis. A critical appraisal checklist tool for cohort studies was modified and used for risk of bias assessment.

RESULTS

Here we show that 152 studies that met extraction criteria most commonly characterized heterogeneity before diagnosis (91/152). Autoantibody type/target was most frequently examined, followed by autoantibody number. Recurring themes included correlations of autoantibody number, type, and titers with progression, differing phenotypes based on order of autoantibody seroconversion, and interactions with age and genetics. Only 44% specifically described autoantibody assay standardization program participation.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence most strongly supports the application of autoantibody features to more precisely define T1D before diagnosis. Our findings support continued use of pre-clinical staging paradigms based on autoantibody number and suggest that additional autoantibody features, particularly in relation to age and genetic risk, could offer more precise stratification. To improve reproducibility and applicability of autoantibody-based precision medicine in T1D, we propose a methods checklist for islet autoantibody-based manuscripts which includes use of precision medicine MeSH terms and participation in autoantibody standardization workshops.

Refining the Definition of Stage 1 Type 1 Diabetes: An Ontology-Driven Analysis of the Heterogeneity of Multiple Islet Autoimmunity

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definitions of multiple islet autoantibody positivity (mIA).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) is a combined prospective data set of children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. who have an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes. Analysis included 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years and comparison between groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of 865 (5%) children with mIA, 537 (62%) progressed to type 1 diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied from the most stringent definition (mIA/Persistent/2: two or more islet autoantibodies positive at the same visit with two or more antibodies persistent at next visit; 88% [95% CI 85-92%]) to the least stringent (mIA/Any: positivity for two islet autoantibodies without co-occurring positivity or persistence; 18% [5-40%]). Progression in mIA/Persistent/2 was significantly higher than all other groups (P < 0.0001). Intermediate stringency definitions showed intermediate risk and were significantly different than mIA/Any (P < 0.05); however, differences waned over the 2-year follow-up among those who did not subsequently reach higher stringency. Among mIA/Persistent/2 individuals with three autoantibodies, loss of one autoantibody by the 2-year follow-up was associated with accelerated progression. Age was significantly associated with time from seroconversion to mIA/Persistent/2 status and mIA to stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The 15-year risk of progression to type 1 diabetes risk varies markedly from 18 to 88% based on the stringency of mIA definition. While initial categorization identifies highest-risk individuals, short-term follow-up over 2 years may help stratify evolving risk, especially for those with less stringent definitions of mIA.

Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND

Numerous laboratory tests are used in the diagnosis and management of diabetes mellitus. The quality of the scientific evidence supporting the use of these assays varies substantially.

APPROACH

An expert committee compiled evidence-based recommendations for laboratory analysis in screening, diagnosis, or monitoring of diabetes. The overall quality of the evidence and the strength of the recommendations were evaluated. The draft consensus recommendations were evaluated by invited reviewers and presented for public comment. Suggestions were incorporated as deemed appropriate by the authors (see Acknowledgments). The guidelines were reviewed by the Evidence Based Laboratory Medicine Committee and the Board of Directors of the American Association for Clinical Chemistry and by the Professional Practice Committee of the American Diabetes Association.

CONTENT

Diabetes can be diagnosed by demonstrating increased concentrations of glucose in venous plasma or increased hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) in the blood. Glycemic control is monitored by the people with diabetes measuring their own blood glucose with meters and/or with continuous interstitial glucose monitoring (CGM) devices and also by laboratory analysis of HbA1c. The potential roles of noninvasive glucose monitoring, genetic testing, and measurement of ketones, autoantibodies, urine albumin, insulin, proinsulin, and C-peptide are addressed.

SUMMARY

The guidelines provide specific recommendations based on published data or derived from expert consensus. Several analytes are found to have minimal clinical value at the present time, and measurement of them is not recommended.

Serum APOC1 levels are decreased in young autoantibody positive children who rapidly progress to type 1 diabetes

Better understanding of the early events in the development of type 1 diabetes is needed to improve prediction and monitoring of the disease progression during the substantially heterogeneous presymptomatic period of the beta cell damaging process. To address this concern, we used mass spectrometry-based proteomics to analyse longitudinal pre-onset plasma sample series from children positive for multiple islet autoantibodies who had rapidly progressed to type 1 diabetes before 4 years of age (n = 10) and compared these with similar measurements from matched children who were either positive for a single autoantibody (n = 10) or autoantibody negative (n = 10). Following statistical analysis of the longitudinal data, targeted serum proteomics was used to verify 11 proteins putatively associated with the disease development in a similar yet independent and larger cohort of children who progressed to the disease within 5 years of age (n = 31) and matched autoantibody negative children (n = 31). These data reiterated extensive age-related trends for protein levels in young children. Further, these analyses demonstrated that the serum levels of two peptides unique for apolipoprotein C1 (APOC1) were decreased after the appearance of the first islet autoantibody and remained relatively less abundant in children who progressed to type 1 diabetes, in comparison to autoantibody negative children.

Circulating metabolic signatures of rapid and slow progression to type 1 diabetes in islet autoantibody-positive children

Aims/hypothesis

Appearance of multiple islet cell autoantibodies in early life is indicative of future progression to overt type 1 diabetes, however, at varying rates. Here, we aimed to study whether distinct metabolic patterns could be identified in rapid progressors (RP, disease manifestation within 18 months after the initial seroconversion to autoantibody positivity) vs. slow progressors (SP, disease manifestation at 60 months or later from the appearance of the first autoantibody).

Methods

Longitudinal samples were collected from RP (n=25) and SP (n=41) groups at the ages of 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, or ≥ 36 months. We performed a comprehensive metabolomics study, analyzing both polar metabolites and lipids. The sample series included a total of 239 samples for lipidomics and 213 for polar metabolites.

Results

We observed that metabolites mediated by gut microbiome, such as those involved in tryptophan metabolism, were the main discriminators between RP and SP. The study identified specific circulating molecules and pathways, including amino acid (threonine), sugar derivatives (hexose), and quinic acid that may define rapid vs. slow progression to type 1 diabetes. However, the circulating lipidome did not appear to play a major role in differentiating between RP and SP.

Conclusion/interpretation

Our study suggests that a distinct metabolic profile is linked with the type 1 diabetes progression. The identification of specific metabolites and pathways that differentiate RP from SP may have implications for early intervention strategies to delay the development of type 1 diabetes.

Islet cells in human type 1 diabetes: from recent advances to novel therapies - a symposium-based roadmap for future research

There is a growing understanding that the early phases of type 1 diabetes (T1D) are characterised by a deleterious dialogue between the pancreatic beta cells and the immune system. This, combined with the urgent need to better translate this growing knowledge into novel therapies, provided the background for the JDRF-DiabetesUK-INNODIA-nPOD symposium entitled 'Islet cells in human T1D: from recent advances to novel therapies', which took place in Stockholm, Sweden, in September 2022. We provide in this article an overview of the main themes addressed in the symposium, pointing to both promising conclusions and key unmet needs that remain to be addressed in order to achieve better approaches to prevent or reverse T1D.

Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND

Numerous laboratory tests are used in the diagnosis and management of diabetes mellitus. The quality of the scientific evidence supporting the use of these assays varies substantially.

APPROACH

An expert committee compiled evidence-based recommendations for laboratory analysis in screening, diagnosis, or monitoring of diabetes. The overall quality of the evidence and the strength of the recommendations were evaluated. The draft consensus recommendations were evaluated by invited reviewers and presented for public comment. Suggestions were incorporated as deemed appropriate by the authors (see Acknowledgments). The guidelines were reviewed by the Evidence Based Laboratory Medicine Committee and the Board of Directors of the American Association of Clinical Chemistry and by the Professional Practice Committee of the American Diabetes Association.

CONTENT

Diabetes can be diagnosed by demonstrating increased concentrations of glucose in venous plasma or increased hemoglobin A1c (Hb A1c) in the blood. Glycemic control is monitored by the people with diabetes measuring their own blood glucose with meters and/or with continuous interstitial glucose monitoring (CGM) devices and also by laboratory analysis of Hb A1c. The potential roles of noninvasive glucose monitoring, genetic testing, and measurement of ketones, autoantibodies, urine albumin, insulin, proinsulin, and C-peptide are addressed.

SUMMARY

The guidelines provide specific recommendations based on published data or derived from expert consensus. Several analytes are found to have minimal clinical value at the present time, and measurement of them is not recommended.

Type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes is a chronic disease caused by autoimmune destruction of pancreatic β cells. Individuals with type 1 diabetes are reliant on insulin for survival. Despite enhanced knowledge related to the pathophysiology of the disease, including interactions between genetic, immune, and environmental contributions, and major strides in treatment and management, disease burden remains high. Studies aimed at blocking the immune attack on β cells in people at risk or individuals with very early onset type 1 diabetes show promise in preserving endogenous insulin production. This Seminar will review the field of type 1 diabetes, highlighting recent progress within the past 5 years, challenges to clinical care, and future directions in research, including strategies to prevent, manage, and cure the disease.

Islet autoantibody screening in at-risk adolescents to predict type 1 diabetes until young adulthood: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Screening for islet autoantibodies in children and adolescents identifies individuals who will later develop type 1 diabetes, allowing patient and family education to prevent diabetic ketoacidosis at onset and to enable consideration of preventive therapies. We aimed to assess whether islet autoantibody screening is effective for predicting type 1 diabetes in adolescents aged 10-18 years with an increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

Data were harmonised from prospective studies from Finland (the Diabetes Prediction and Prevention study), Germany (the BABYDIAB study), and the USA (Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young and the Diabetes Evaluation in Washington study). Autoantibodies against insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase, and insulinoma-associated protein 2 were measured at each follow-up visit. Children who were lost to follow-up or diagnosed with type 1 diabetes before 10 years of age were excluded. Inverse probability censoring weighting was used to include data from remaining participants. Sensitivity and the positive predictive value of these autoantibodies, tested at one or two ages, to predict type 1 diabetes by the age of 18 years were the main outcomes.

FINDINGS

Of 20 303 children with an increased type 1 diabetes risk, 8682 were included for the analysis with inverse probability censoring weighting. 1890 were followed up to 18 years of age or developed type 1 diabetes between the ages of 10 years and 18 years, and their median follow-up was 18·3 years (IQR 14·5-20·3). 442 (23·4%) of 1890 adolescents were positive for at least one islet autoantibody, and 262 (13·9%) developed type 1 diabetes. Time from seroconversion to diabetes diagnosis increased by 0·64 years (95% CI 0·34-0·95) for each 1-year increment of diagnosis age (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0·88, 95% CI 0·50-0·97, p=0·0020). The median interval between the last prediagnostic sample and diagnosis was 0·3 years (IQR 0·1-1·3) in the 227 participants who were autoantibody positive and 6·8 years (1·6-9·9) for the 35 who were autoantibody negative. Single screening at the age of 10 years was 90% (95% CI 86-95) sensitive, with a positive predictive value of 66% (60-72) for clinical diabetes. Screening at two ages (10 years and 14 years) increased sensitivity to 93% (95% CI 89-97) but lowered the positive predictive value to 55% (49-60).

INTERPRETATION

Screening of adolescents at risk for type 1 diabetes only once at 10 years of age for islet autoantibodies was highly effective to detect type 1 diabetes by the age of 18 years, which in turn could enable prevention of diabetic ketoacidosis and participation in secondary prevention trials.

FUNDING

JDRF International.

Stratifying risk for onset of type 1 diabetes using islet autoantibody trajectory clustering

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Islet autoantibodies can be detected prior to the onset of type 1 diabetes and are important tools for aetiologic studies, prevention trials and disease screening. Current risk stratification models rely on the positivity status of islet autoantibodies alone, but additional autoantibody characteristics may be important for understanding disease onset. This work aimed to determine if a data-driven model incorporating characteristics of islet autoantibody development, including timing, type and titre, could stratify risk for type 1 diabetes onset.

METHODS

Data on autoantibodies against GAD (GADA), tyrosine phosphatase islet antigen-2 (IA-2A) and insulin (IAA) were obtained for 1,415 children enrolled in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young study with at least one positive autoantibody measurement from years 1 to 12 of life. Unsupervised machine learning algorithms were trained to identify clusters of autoantibody development based on islet autoantibody timing, type and titre. Risk for type 1 diabetes across each identified cluster was evaluated using time-to-event analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 2-4 clusters in each year cohort that differed by autoantibody timing, titre and type. During the first 3 years of life, risk for type 1 diabetes onset was driven by membership in clusters with high titres of all three autoantibodies (1-year risk: 20.87-56.25%, 5-year risk: 67.73-69.19%). Type 1 diabetes risk transitioned to type-specific titres during ages 4 to 8, as clusters with high titres of IA-2A (1-year risk: 20.88-28.93%, 5-year risk: 62.73-78.78%) showed faster progression to diabetes compared with high titres of GADA (1-year risk: 4.38-6.11%, 5-year risk: 25.06-31.44%). The importance of high GADA titres decreased during ages 9 to 12, with clusters containing high titres of IA-2A alone (1-year risk: 14.82-30.93%) or both GADA and IA-2A (1-year risk: 8.27-25.00%) demonstrating increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This unsupervised machine learning approach provides a novel tool for stratifying risk for type 1 diabetes onset using multiple autoantibody characteristics. These findings suggest that age-dependent changes in IA-2A titres modulate risk for type 1 diabetes onset across 12 years of life. Overall, this work supports incorporation of islet autoantibody timing, type and titre in risk stratification models for aetiologic studies, prevention trials and disease screening.

The effect of age on longitudinal measures of beta cell function and insulin sensitivity during the progression of early stage type 1 diabetes

AIM/HYPOTHESIS

The risk of progressing from autoantibody positivity to type 1 diabetes is inversely related to age. Separately, whether age influences patterns of C-peptide loss or changes in insulin sensitivity in autoantibody-positive individuals who progress to stage 3 type 1 diabetes is unclear.

METHODS

Beta cell function and insulin sensitivity were determined by modelling of OGTTs performed in 658 autoantibody-positive participants followed longitudinally in the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1). In this secondary analysis of DPT-1 data, time trajectories of beta cell function and insulin sensitivity were analysed in participants who progressed to type 1 diabetes (progressors) to address the impact of age on patterns of metabolic progression to diabetes.

RESULTS

Among the entire DPT-1 cohort, the highest discriminant age for type 1 diabetes risk was 14 years, with participants aged <14 years being twice as likely to progress to type 1 diabetes as those aged ≥14 years. At study entry, beta cell glucose sensitivity was impaired to a similar extent in progressors aged <14 years and progressors aged ≥14 years. From study entry to stage 3 type 1 diabetes onset, beta cell glucose sensitivity and insulin sensitivity declined in both progressor groups. However, there were no significant differences in the yearly rate of decline in either glucose sensitivity (-13.7 [21.2] vs -11.9 [21.5] pmol min^-1 m^-2 [mmol/l]^-1, median [IQR], p=0.52) or insulin sensitivity (-22 [37] vs -14 [40] ml min^-1 m^-2, median [IQR], p=0.07) between progressors aged <14 years and progressors aged ≥14 years.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our data indicate that during progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes, rates of change in declining glucose and insulin sensitivity are not significantly different between progressors aged <14 years and progressors aged ≥14 years. These data suggest there is a predictable course of declining metabolic function during the progression to type 1 diabetes that is not influenced by age.

Matching for HLA-DR excluding diabetogenic HLA-DR3 and HLA-DR4 predicts insulin independence after pancreatic islet transplantation

Introduction

In pancreatic islet transplantation, the exact contribution of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) matching to graft survival remains unclear. Islets may be exposed to allogenic rejection but also the recurrence of type 1 diabetes (T1D). We evaluated the HLA-DR matching, including the impact of diabetogenic HLA-DR3 or HLA-DR4 matches.

Methods

We retrospectively examined the HLA profile in 965 transplant recipients and 2327 islet donors. The study population was obtained from patients enrolled in the Collaborative Islet Transplant Registry. We then identified 87 recipients who received a single-islet infusion. Islet-kidney recipients, 2nd islet infusion, and patients with missing data were excluded from the analysis (n=878).

Results

HLA-DR3 and HLA-DR4 were present in 29.7% and 32.6% of T1D recipients and 11.6% and 15.8% of the donors, respectively. We identified 52 T1D islet recipients mismatched for HLA-DR (group A), 11 with 1 or 2 HLA-DR-matches but excluding HLA-DR3 and HLA- DR4 (group B), and 24 matched for HLA-DR3 or HLA-DR4 (group C). Insulin-independence was maintained in a significantly higher percentage of group B recipients from year one through five post-transplantation (p<0.01). At five-year post-transplantation, 78% of group B was insulin-independent compared to 24% (group A) and 35% (group C). Insulin-independence correlated with significantly better glycemic control (HbA1c <7%), fasting blood glucose, and reduced severe hypoglycemic events. Matching HLA-A-B-DR (≥3) independently of HLA- DR3 or HLA-DR4 matching did not improve graft survival.

Conclusion

This study suggests that matching HLA-DR but excluding the diabetogenic HLA-DR3 and/or 4 is a significant predictor for long-term islet survival.

Quantifying the utility of islet autoantibody levels in the prediction of type 1 diabetes in children

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to explore the utility of islet autoantibody (IAb) levels for the prediction of type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive children.

METHODS

Prospective cohort studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden and the USA followed 24,662 children at increased genetic or familial risk of developing islet autoimmunity and diabetes. For the 1403 who developed IAbs (523 of whom developed diabetes), levels of autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA) and insulinoma-associated antigen-2 (IA-2A) were harmonised for analysis. Diabetes prediction models using multivariate logistic regression with inverse probability censored weighting (IPCW) were trained using 10-fold cross-validation. Discriminative power for disease was estimated using the IPCW concordance index (C index) with 95% CI estimated via bootstrap.

RESULTS

A baseline model with covariates for data source, sex, diabetes family history, HLA risk group and age at seroconversion with a 10-year follow-up period yielded a C index of 0.61 (95% CI 0.58, 0.63). The performance improved after adding the IAb positivity status for IAA, GADA and IA-2A at seroconversion: C index 0.72 (95% CI 0.71, 0.74). Using the IAb levels instead of positivity indicators resulted in even better performance: C index 0.76 (95% CI 0.74, 0.77). The predictive power was maintained when using the IAb levels alone: C index 0.76 (95% CI 0.75, 0.76). The prediction was better for shorter follow-up periods, with a C index of 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.83) at 2 years, and remained reasonable for longer follow-up periods, with a C index of 0.76 (95% CI 0.75, 0.76) at 11 years. Inclusion of the results of a third IAb test added to the predictive power, and a suitable interval between seroconversion and the third test was approximately 1.5 years, with a C index of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) at 10 years follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Consideration of quantitative patterns of IAb levels improved the predictive power for type 1 diabetes in IAb-positive children beyond qualitative IAb positivity status.

Islet Autoantibody Levels Differentiate Progression Trajectories in Individuals With Presymptomatic Type 1 Diabetes

In our previous data-driven analysis of evolving patterns of islet autoantibodies (IAb) against insulin (IAA), GAD (GADA), and islet antigen 2 (IA-2A), we discovered three trajectories, characterized according to multiple IAb (TR1), IAA (TR2), or GADA (TR3) as the first appearing autoantibodies. Here we examined the evolution of IAb levels within these trajectories in 2,145 IAb-positive participants followed from early life and compared those who progressed to type 1 diabetes (n = 643) with those remaining undiagnosed (n = 1,502). With use of thresholds determined by 5-year diabetes risk, four levels were defined for each IAb and overlaid onto each visit. In diagnosed participants, high IAA levels were seen in TR1 and TR2 at ages <3 years, whereas IAA remained at lower levels in the undiagnosed. Proportions of dwell times (total duration of follow-up at a given level) at the four IAb levels differed between the diagnosed and undiagnosed for GADA and IA-2A in all three trajectories (P < 0.001), but for IAA dwell times differed only within TR2 (P < 0.05). Overall, undiagnosed participants more frequently had low IAb levels and later appearance of IAb than diagnosed participants. In conclusion, while it has long been appreciated that the number of autoantibodies is an important predictor of type 1 diabetes, consideration of autoantibody levels within the three autoimmune trajectories improved differentiation of IAb-positive children who progressed to type 1 diabetes from those who did not.

Predictors of the Initiation of Islet Autoimmunity and Progression to Multiple Autoantibodies and Clinical Diabetes: The TEDDY Study

OBJECTIVE

To distinguish among predictors of seroconversion, progression to multiple autoantibodies and from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes in young children.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Genetically high-risk newborns (n = 8,502) were followed for a median of 11.2 years (interquartile range 9.3-12.6); 835 (9.8%) developed islet autoantibodies and 283 (3.3%) were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Predictors were examined using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Predictors of seroconversion and progression differed, depending on the type of first appearing autoantibody. Male sex, Finnish residence, having a sibling with type 1 diabetes, the HLA DR4 allele, probiotic use before age 28 days, and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs689_A (INS) predicted seroconversion to IAA-first (having islet autoantibody to insulin as the first appearing autoantibody). Increased weight at 12 months and SNPs rs12708716_G (CLEC16A) and rs2292239_T (ERBB3) predicted GADA-first (autoantibody to GAD as the first appearing). For those having a father with type 1 diabetes, the SNPs rs2476601_A (PTPN22) and rs3184504_T (SH2B3) predicted both. Younger age at seroconversion predicted progression from single to multiple autoantibodies as well as progression to diabetes, except for those presenting with GADA-first. Family history of type 1 diabetes and the HLA DR4 allele predicted progression to multiple autoantibodies but not diabetes. Sex did not predict progression to multiple autoantibodies, but males progressed more slowly than females from multiple autoantibodies to diabetes. SKAP2 and MIR3681HG SNPs are newly reported to be significantly associated with progression from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictors of IAA-first versus GADA-first autoimmunity differ from each other and from the predictors of progression to diabetes.

INnoVative trial design for testing the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of 6-month treatment with incretin-based therapy to prevent type 1 DIAbetes in autoantibody positive participants: A protocol for three parallel double-blind, randomised controlled trials (INVESTDIA)

AIMS

β-cell stress and dysfunction may contribute to islet autoimmunity and progression to clinical type 1 diabetes. We present a protocol of three randomised controlled trials assessing the effects of glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP - 1) analogue liraglutide in three early stages of type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

We will test 10- to 30-year-old people with multiple islet autoantibodies for their glucose metabolism and randomise participants with stage 1 (multiple islet autoantibodies and normoglycaemia), stage 2 (multiple islet autoantibodies and dysglycaemia) and early stage 3 (clinical diagnosis) type 1 diabetes, 10-14 persons in each, to a 6-month intervention with liraglutide or placebo with 6-month follow-up in the stage 2 and stage 3 trials and 18-month follow-up in the stage 1 trial. Primary efficacy outcome in the stage 1 and stage 2 trials is a first-phase insulin response in an intravenous glucose tolerance test and C-peptide area under the curve in a 2-h mixed-meal tolerance test in the stage 3 trial. In addition, safety and tolerability of liraglutide treatment will be assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Most prevention trials of type 1 diabetes have targeted the immune system. Treatment with GLP-1 analogue liraglutide supports the pancreatic β-cells, which should likewise attenuate islet autoimmunity. Our innovative study design allows simultaneous investigation of an intervention in three groups of people who represent various early stages of type 1 diabetes and maximises the eligibility to participate.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02611232 (stage 1 trial), NCT02898506 (stage 2 trial), NCT02908087 (stage 3 trial).

Exploring Minimally Invasive Approach to Define Stages of Type 1 Diabetes Remotely

Objective: New methods are pivotal in accurately predicting, monitoring, and diagnosing the clinical manifestation of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in high-risk children. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is a valuable tool for patients with T1D, but there is still a knowledge gap regarding its utility in the prediction of diabetes. The current study explored whether 10-day CGM or CGM during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) performed in the laboratory or at home (home-OGTT) could be accurate in detecting stages of T1D. Research Design and Methods: Forty-six subjects 4-25 years of age carrying genetic risk for T1D were recruited and classified into the following groups: islet autoantibody (IAb) negative, one IAb, and stages 1-3 of T1D, based on the laboratory OGTT and IAb results at baseline. A 10-day CGM was initiated before the OGTT. Results: In this study, we showed that CGM was sensitive in detecting asymptomatic individuals at stage 3, and dysglycemic individuals in stage 2 of T1D both during OGTT and the 10-day period. CGM also showed significant differences in several variables during the 10-day sensoring among individuals at different stages of T1D. Furthermore, CGM showed different OGTT profiles and detected significantly more abnormal OGTT results when compared with plasma glucose. Conclusions: CGM together with home-OGTT could detect stages of T1D and offer an alternative method to confirm normoglycemia in high-risk individuals.

Two-age islet-autoantibody screening for childhood type 1 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Early prediction of childhood type 1 diabetes reduces ketoacidosis at diagnosis and provides opportunities for disease prevention. However, only highly efficient approaches are likely to succeed in public health settings. We sought to identify efficient strategies for initial islet autoantibody screening in children younger than 15 years.

METHODS

We harmonised data from five prospective cohorts from Finland (DIPP), Germany (BABYDIAB), Sweden (DiPiS), and the USA (DAISY and DEW-IT) into the Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) cohort. 24 662 children at high risk of diabetes enrolled before age 2 years were included and followed up for islet autoantibodies and diabetes until age 15 years, or type 1 diabetes onset, whichever occurred first. Islet autoantibodies measured included those against glutamic acid decarboxylase, insulinoma antigen 2, and insulin. Main outcomes were sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of detected islet autoantibodies, tested at one or two fixed ages, for diagnosis of clinical type 1 diabetes.

FINDINGS

Of the 24 662 participants enrolled in the Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence cohort, 6722 total were followed up to age 15 years or until onset of type 1 diabetes. Type 1 diabetes developed by age 15 years in 672 children, but did not develop in 6050 children. Optimal screening ages for two measurements were 2 years and 6 years, yielding sensitivity of 82% (95% CI 79-86) and PPV of 79% (95% CI 75-80) for diabetes by age 15 years. Autoantibody positivity at the beginning of each test age was highly predictive of diagnosis in the subsequent 2-5·99 year or 6-15-year age intervals. Autoantibodies usually appeared before age 6 years even in children diagnosed with diabetes much later in childhood.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show that initial screening for islet autoantibodies at two ages (2 years and 6 years) is sensitive and efficient for public health translation but might require adjustment by country on the basis of population-specific disease characteristics.

FUNDING

Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.

Childhood Height Growth Rate Association With the Risk of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes

CONTEXT

Rapid growth has been suggested to promote islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D). Childhood growth has not been analyzed separately from the infant growth period in most previous studies, but it may have distinct features due to differences between the stages of development.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to analyze the association of childhood growth with development of islet autoimmunity and progression to T1D diagnosis in children 1 to 8 years of age.

METHODS

Longitudinal data of childhood growth and development of islet autoimmunity and T1D were analyzed in a prospective cohort study including 10 145 children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States, 1-8 years of age with at least 3 height and weight measurements and at least 1 measurement of islet autoantibodies. The primary outcome was the appearance of islet autoimmunity and progression from islet autoimmunity to T1D.

RESULTS

Rapid increase in height (cm/year) was associated with increased risk of seroconversion to glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibody, insulin autoantibody, or insulinoma-like antigen-2 autoantibody (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.26 [95% CI = 1.05, 1.51] for 1-3 years of age and HR = 1.48 [95% CI = 1.28, 1.73] for >3 years of age). Furthermore, height rate was positively associated with development of T1D (HR = 1.80 [95% CI = 1.15, 2.81]) in the analyses from seroconversion with insulin autoantibody to diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Rapid height growth rate in childhood is associated with increased risk of islet autoimmunity and progression to T1D. Further work is needed to investigate the biological mechanism that may explain this association.

Progression of type 1 diabetes from latency to symptomatic disease is predicted by distinct autoimmune trajectories

Development of islet autoimmunity precedes the onset of type 1 diabetes in children, however, the presence of autoantibodies does not necessarily lead to manifest disease and the onset of clinical symptoms is hard to predict. Here we show, by longitudinal sampling of islet autoantibodies (IAb) to insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase and islet antigen-2 that disease progression follows distinct trajectories. Of the combined Type 1 Data Intelligence cohort of 24662 participants, 2172 individuals fulfill the criteria of two or more follow-up visits and IAb positivity at least once, with 652 progressing to type 1 diabetes during the 15 years course of the study. Our Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Models, that are developed to discover and visualize latent states based on the collected data and clinical characteristics of the patients, show that the health state of participants progresses from 11 distinct latent states as per three trajectories (TR1, TR2 and TR3), with associated 5-year cumulative diabetes-free survival of 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35% to 47%), 62% (95% CI, 57% to 67%), and 88% (95% CI, 85% to 91%), respectively (p < 0.0001). Age, sex, and HLA-DR status further refine the progression rates within trajectories, enabling clinically useful prediction of disease onset.

Presence of islet autoantibodies precedes the onset of type 1 diabetes but it does not predict whether and how fast symptomatic disease appears. Here authors present a model to predict and visualize progression to diabetes by using a large longitudinal data set on autoantibodies and clinical parameters as input.