Excess child mortality after discharge from hospital in Kilifi, Kenya: a retrospective cohort analysis

Nutritional supplementation in children with severe pneumonia in Uganda and Kenya (COAST-Nutrition): a phase 2 randomised controlled trial

Background

Severe pneumonia in African children results in poor long-term outcomes (deaths/readmissions) with undernutrition as a key risk factor. We hypothesised additional energy/protein-rich Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Foods (RUTF) would meet additional nutritional requirements and improve outcomes.

Methods

COAST-Nutrition was an open-label Phase 2 randomised controlled trial in children (aged 6 months-12 years) hospitalised with severe pneumonia (and hypoxaemia, SpO2 <92%) in Mbale, Soroti, Jinja, Masaka Regional Referral Hospitals, Uganda and Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya (ISRCTN10829073 (registered 6th June 2018) PACTR202106635355751 (registered 2nd June 2021)). Children were randomised (ratio 1:1) to enhanced nutritional supplementation with RUTF (plus usual diet) for 56 days vs usual diet (control). The primary outcome was change in mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) at 90 days as a composite with mortality. Secondary outcomes include anthropometric status, mortality, and readmissions at Days 28, 90 and 180.

Findings

Between 12 August 2018 and 22 April 2022, 846 eligible children were randomised, 424 to RUTF and 422 to usual diet, and followed for 180-days [12 (1%) lost-to-follow-up]. RUTF supplement was initiated in 417/419 (>99%). By Day 90, there was no significant difference in the composite endpoint (probabilistic index 0.49, 95% CI 0.45-0.53, p = 0.74). Respective 90-day mortality (13/420 3.1% vs 14/421 3.3%) and MUAC increment (0.54 (SD 0.85) vs 0.55 (SD 0.81)) were similar between arms. There was no difference in any anthropometric secondary endpoints to Day 28, 90 or 180 except skinfold thickness at Day 28 and Day 90 was greater in the RUTF arm. Serious adverse events were higher in the RUTF arm (n = 164 vs 108), mainly due to hospital readmission for acute illness (54/387 (14%) vs 37/375 (10%).

Interpretation

Our study suggested that nutritional supplementation with RUTF did not improve outcomes to 180 days in children with severe pneumonia.

Funding

This trial is part of the EDCTP2 programme (grant number RIA-2016S-1636-COAST-Nutrition) supported by the European Union, and UK Joint Global Health Trials scheme: Medical Research Council, Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust (grant number MR/L004364/1, UK).

A study protocol for predictors of post-discharge mortality among children aged 5-14 years admitted to tertiary hospitals in Tanzania: A prospective observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Globally, millions of children and adolescents die every year from treatable and preventable causes. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 55% of deaths of children aged 5-14 years in 2017. Despite this high burden, minimal effort has been directed toward reducing mortality among older children and adolescents in comparison to under-fives. Mortality rates of children post-discharge vary between 1-18% in limited-resource countries and are reported to exceed in-hospital mortality. In Tanzania, there is limited data regarding post-discharge mortality and its predictors among children aged 5-14 years.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to determine the post-discharge mortality rate and its predictors among children aged 5-14 years admitted to pediatric wards at MNH, MOI, and JKCI.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This will be a prospective observational cohort study that will be conducted among children aged 5-14 years admitted to pediatric wards at Muhimbili National Hospital, Jakaya Kikwete Cardiac Institue, and Muhimbili Orthopedic Institue in Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania. Data will be collected using a structured questionnaire and will include socio-demographic characteristics, clinical factors, and patients' outcomes. Post-discharge follow-up will be done at months 1, 2, and 3 after discharge via phone call. Data will be analyzed using SPSS version 23. The association of demographic, social economic, and clinical factors with the outcome of all causes, 3 months post-discharge mortality will be determined by Cox regression, and survival rates will be displayed through Kaplan-Meier curves.

DISCUSSION

This study will determine post-discharge mortality among children aged 5-14 years and its predictors in Tanzania. This information is expected to provide baseline data that will be useful for raising awareness of clinicians on how to prioritize and plan a proper follow-up of children following hospital discharge. These data may also be used to guide policy development to address and reduce the high burden of older children and adolescent mortality and may be used for future studies including those aiming to develop prediction models for post-discharge mortality among older children and adolescents.

The double burden of malnutrition in individuals: Identifying key challenges and re-thinking research focus

The 'double burden of malnutrition' is a global health challenge that increasingly affects populations in both low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This phenomenon refers to the coexistence of undernutrition and overweight or obesity, as well as other diet-related non-communicable diseases, in the same population, household or even individual. While noteworthy progress has been made in reducing undernutrition in some parts of the world, in many of these areas, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing, particularly in urban areas, resulting in greater numbers of people who were undernourished in childhood and have overweight or obesity in adulthood. This creates a complex and challenging situation for research experts and policymakers who must simultaneously address the public health burdens of undernutrition and overweight/obesity. This review identifies key challenges and limitations in the current research on the double burden of malnutrition in individuals, including the need for a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the drivers of malnutrition, the importance of context-specific interventions and the need for greater attention to the food environment and food systems. We advocate for the re-evaluation of research strategies and focus, with a greater emphasis on multidisciplinary and systems approaches and greater attention to the synergistic relationship between the biological, environmental, commercial and socio-economic determinants of malnutrition. Addressing these key challenges can enable us to better comprehend and tackle the multifaceted and dynamic issues of the double burden of malnutrition, particularly in individuals and work towards more effective and sustainable solutions.

Mortality among non-severely under nourished children with pneumonia globally: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Pneumonia remains the commonest cause of ill health and mortality among children worldwide. Severe undernutrition increases the mortality risk among children with pneumonia. While children with pneumonia are at increased risk of developing malnutrition, the impact of pneumonia on mortality and nutritional status of non-severely undernourished children is not well described. The impact of nutritional supplementation on mortality and nutritional status in this population is not well understood. This review will collate available evidence on the all-cause mortality and anthropometric indices outcomes following pneumonia, as well as the impact of nutritional supplementation on mortality and anthropometry among non-severely malnourished children with pneumonia.

Methods

The review will be done using a priori criteria developed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Data will be obtained from data bases, grey literature, and bibliographies. An experienced librarian will conduct article search in PUBMED, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Google scholar, and Scopus. Retrieved articles will be entered in Endnote ver 9.0, duplicates removed, and transferred to Epi-reviewer for screening and data abstraction. Risk of bias in the included articles will be assessed using standard criteria. Heterogeneity will be assessed using I 2-statistic and sub-group analysis will be done. Data will be analysed using both narrative and quantitative synthesis. Quantitative synthesis will be done using DeSimonian and Laird Random-effects model in STATA ver 15.0.

Conclusions

The results will provide baseline information about the mortality and anthropometric outcomes of pneumonia among non-severely malnourished children as well as the potential effect of nutritional supplementation on these outcomes. This will provide a basis to explore the potential for nutritional supplementation improving clinical outcomes like mortality and occurrence of severe acute malnutrition among children with severe pneumonia worldwide.

Registration

The review has been registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021257272; 15 July 2021).

Mortality and associated factors among children admitted to an intensive care unit in muhimbili national hospital, from the time of admission to three months after discharge: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mortality of children admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICU) is higher in low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) as compared to high-income countries (HICs). There is paucity of information on outcomes following discharge from ICU, especially from sub-Saharan Africa region. This study was conducted to determine mortality and its associated factors among children admitted to Pediatric ICU (PICU) at Muhimbili National Hospital, from admission to three months after discharge.

METHODOLOGY

This was a hospital-based prospective cohort study conducted between July 2021 and May 2022, among children admitted to PICU who were followed up for 3-month after discharge. Structured questionnaires were used to collect data from their medical charts. Telephone interviews were made after discharge. Medical records and verbal autopsy were used to determine the cause of death after discharge. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between variables. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Survival after PICU discharge was estimated by Kaplan - Meier curve.

RESULTS

Of 323 children recruited, 177(54.8%) were male, with a median age of 17 months (1-168). The leading cause of PICU admission was severe sepsis 90/323(27.9%). A total of 161/323 children died, yielding an overall mortality of 49.8%. Of 173 children discharged from PICU, 33(19.1%) died. The leading cause of death among children who died in the general ward or as readmission into PICU was sepsis 4/17(23.5%). Respiratory diseases 4/16(25.0%) were the commonest cause of death among those who died after hospital discharge. Independent predictors of overall mortality included single organ dysfunction with hazard ratio(HR):5.97, 95% confidence interval (CI)(3.05-12.26)] and multiple organ dysfunction [HR:2.77,95%CI(1.03-2.21)]. Chronic illness[HR:8.13,95%CI(2.45-27.02)], thrombocytosis [HR:3.39,95%CI(1.32-8.73)], single[HR:3.57,95%CI(1.42-9.03)] and multiple organ dysfunction[HR:3.11,95%CI(1.01-9.61)] independently predicted post-PICU discharge mortality.

CONCLUSION

Overall mortality and post- PICU discharge mortality were high and more likely to affect children with organ dysfunction, chronic illness, and thrombocytosis. The leading causes of mortality post- PICU discharge were sepsis and respiratory diseases. There is a need for a focused follow up plan of children post- PICU discharge, further research on the long term survival and strategies to improve it.

Prevalence and Correlates of Stunting among a High-Risk Population of Kenyan Children Recently Hospitalized for Acute Illnesses

Stunting (length/height-for-age z-score < -2) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. Children who are stunted and recently hospitalized for acute illness may be at particularly elevated risk for post-discharge mortality. In this cross-sectional analysis, we measured the prevalence of stunting at hospital discharge and identified host, caregiver, and environmental correlates of stunting among children aged 1-59 months in Western Kenya enrolled in the Toto Bora Trial. Child age- and site-adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated using Poisson regression. Of the 1,394 children included in this analysis, 23% were stunted at hospital discharge. Older children (12-23 months and 24-59 months versus 0-5 months) had a higher prevalence of stunting (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.04-2.36 and aPR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.08-2.34, respectively). HIV-exposed, uninfected children (aPR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.39-2.70), children with HIV infection (aPR: 2.73; 95% CI: 1.45-5.15), and those who were never exclusively breastfed in early life (aPR 2.51; 95% CI: 1.35-4.67) were more likely to be stunted. Caregiver education (primary school or less) and unimproved sanitation (pit latrine without slab floor or open defecation) were associated with increased risk of stunting (aPR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.54-2.44; aPR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.20-3.31; aPR: 3.57; 95% CI: 1.77-7.21, respectively). Hospital discharge represents an important opportunity for both identifying and delivering targeted interventions for nutrition-associated poor outcomes among a high-risk population of children.

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Under-five mortality remains concentrated in resource-poor countries. Post-discharge mortality is becoming increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to overall child mortality. With a substantial recent expansion of research and novel data synthesis methods, this study aims to update the current evidence base by providing a more nuanced understanding of the burden and associated risk factors of pediatric post-discharge mortality after acute illness.

Methods

Eligible studies published between January 1, 2017 and January 31, 2023, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. Studies published before 2017 were identified in a previous review and added to the total pool of studies. Only studies from countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index with a post-discharge observation period greater than seven days were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies. Studies were grouped by patient population, and 6-month post-discharge mortality rates were quantified by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, pooled risk factor estimates, and pooled post-discharge Kaplan-Meier survival curves. PROSPERO study registration: #CRD42022350975.

Findings

Of 1963 articles screened, 42 eligible articles were identified and combined with 22 articles identified in the previous review, resulting in 64 total articles. These articles represented 46 unique patient cohorts and included a total of 105,560 children. For children admitted with a general acute illness, the pooled risk of mortality six months post-discharge was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.5%-5.4%, I2 = 94.2%, n = 11 studies, 34,457 children), and the pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2%-7.7%, I2 = 98.7%, n = 12 studies, 63,307 children). Among disease subgroups, severe malnutrition (12.2%, 95% CI: 6.2%-19.7%, I2 = 98.2%, n = 10 studies, 7760 children) and severe anemia (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.2%-9.1%, I2 = 93.3%, n = 9 studies, 7806 children) demonstrated the highest 6-month post-discharge mortality estimates. Diarrhea demonstrated the shortest median time to death (3.3 weeks) and anemia the longest (8.9 weeks). Most significant risk factors for post-discharge mortality included unplanned discharges, severe malnutrition, and HIV seropositivity.

Interpretation

Pediatric post-discharge mortality rates remain high in resource-poor settings, especially among children admitted with malnutrition or anemia. Global health strategies must prioritize this health issue by dedicating resources to research and policy innovation.

Funding

No specific funding was received.

Trends in inpatient and post-discharge mortality among young infants admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To describe admission trends and estimate inpatient and post-discharge mortality and its associated exposures, among young infants (YI) admitted to a county hospital in Kenya.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Secondary level hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

YI aged less than 60 days admitted to hospital from January 2009 to December 2019: 12 271 admissions in 11 877 individuals. YI who were resident within a Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS): n=3625 with 4421 admissions were followed-up for 1 year after discharge.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Inpatient and 1-year post-discharge mortality, the latter in KHDSS residents.

RESULTS

Of 12 271 YI admissions, 4421 (36%) were KHDSS-resident. Neonatal sepsis, preterm complications and birth asphyxia accounted for 83% of the admissions. The proportion of YI among under-5s admissions increased from 19% in 2009 to 34% in 2019 (P_trend=0.02). Inpatient case fatality was 16%, with 66% of the deaths occurring within 48 hours of admission. The introduction of free maternity care in 2013 was not associated with a change in admissions or inpatient mortality among YI. During 1-year post-discharge, 208/3625 (5.7%) YI died, 64.3 (95% CI 56.2 to 73.7) per 1000 infant-years. 49% of the post-discharge deaths occurred within 1 month of discharge, and 49% of post-discharge deaths occurred at home. Both inpatient and post-discharge deaths were associated with low admission weight. Inpatient mortality was associated with clinical signs of disease severity, while post-discharge mortality was associated with the length of hospitalisation, leaving against advice and referral to a specialised hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

YIs accounted for an increasing proportion of paediatric admissions and their overall mortality remains high. Post-discharge mortality accounts for a lower proportion of deaths but mortality rate is higher than among children aged 2-59 months. Services to address post-discharge mortality are needed and should focus on infants at higher risk.

Enteric Permeability, Systemic Inflammation, and Post-Discharge Growth Among a Cohort of Hospitalized Children in Kenya and Pakistan

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether gut permeability is associated with post-discharge growth and systemic inflammation among hospitalized children in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

Children aged 2-23 months being discharged from Civil Hospital Karachi (Pakistan) and Migori County Referral Hospital (Kenya) underwent lactulose-rhamnose ratio (LRR) permeability testing and were compared to age-matched children from their home communities. Linear mixed effect models estimated the associations between LRR among discharged children with change in length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-age z score (WAZ) at 45, 90, and 180 days after discharge. Linear regression tested if relationships between LRR, systemic inflammation [C-reative protein (CRP), Cluster of Differentiation 14 (CD14), Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha (TNFα), Interleukin-6 (IL-6)], and enterocyte damage [Intestinal Fatty-Acid Binding protein (I-FABP)] differed between the hospitalized and community groups.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-seven hospitalized and 84 community participants were included. The hospitalized group had higher log-LRR [0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15-0.71, P = 0.003] than the community children. Adjustment for weight-for-length z score at discharge attenuated this association (0.31, 95% CI: 0.00-0.62, P = 0.049). LRR was not associated with changes in WAZ or LAZ in the post-discharge period. Associations between LRR and CRP (interaction P = 0.036), TNFα ( P = 0.017), CD14 ( P = 0.078), and IL-6 ( P = 0.243) differed between community and hospitalized groups. LRR was associated with TNFα ( P = 0.004) and approached significance with CD14 ( P = 0.078) and IL-6 ( P = 0.062) in community children, but there was no evidence of these associations among hospitalized children.

CONCLUSIONS

Although increased enteric permeability is more prevalent among children being discharged from hospital compared to children in the community, it does not appear to be an important determinant of systemic inflammation or post-discharge growth among hospitalized children.

The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) network nested case-cohort study protocol: a multi-omics approach to understanding mortality among children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Introduction: Many acutely ill children in low- and middle-income settings have a high risk of mortality both during and after hospitalisation despite guideline-based care. Understanding the biological mechanisms underpinning mortality may suggest optimal pathways to target for interventions to further reduce mortality. The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network ( www.chainnnetwork.org) Nested Case-Cohort Study (CNCC) aims to investigate biological mechanisms leading to inpatient and post-discharge mortality through an integrated multi-omic approach. Methods and analysis; The CNCC comprises a subset of participants from the CHAIN cohort (1278/3101 hospitalised participants, including 350 children who died and 658 survivors, and 270/1140 well community children of similar age and household location) from nine sites in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Systemic proteome, metabolome, lipidome, lipopolysaccharides, haemoglobin variants, toxins, pathogens, intestinal microbiome and biomarkers of enteropathy will be determined. Computational systems biology analysis will include machine learning and multivariate predictive modelling with stacked generalization approaches accounting for the different characteristics of each biological modality. This systems approach is anticipated to yield mechanistic insights, show interactions and behaviours of the components of biological entities, and help develop interventions to reduce mortality among acutely ill children. Ethics and dissemination. The CHAIN Network cohort and CNCC was approved by institutional review boards of all partner sites. Results will be published in open access, peer reviewed scientific journals and presented to academic and policy stakeholders. Data will be made publicly available, including uploading to recognised omics databases. Trial registration NCT03208725.

Cytomegalovirus Viremia Predicts Postdischarge Mortality in Kenyan HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children

BACKGROUND

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia is associated with mortality in severely ill immunocompetent adults and hospitalized children with HIV (CWH). We measured CMV viremia in HIV-exposed and -unexposed Kenyan children aged 1-59 months discharged from hospital and determined its relationship with postdischarge mortality.

METHODS

CMV DNA levels were measured in plasma from 1024 children (97 of which were HIV exposed uninfected [HEU], and 15 CWH). Poisson and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify correlates of CMV viremia ≥ 1000 IU/mL 
and estimate associations with 6-month mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

CMV viremia was detected in 31% of children, with levels ≥ 1000 IU/mL in 5.8%. HIV infection, age < 2 years, breastfeeding, and midupper arm circumference < 12.5 cm were associated with CMV viremia ≥ 1000 IU/mL. Among HEU children, CMV ≥ 1000 IU/mL (hazard ratio [HR] = 32.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.9-354.0; P = .005) and each 1-log increase in CMV viral load (HR = 5.04; 95% CI, 1.7-14.6; P = .003) were associated with increased risk of mortality. CMV viremia was not significantly associated with mortality in HIV-unexposed children.

CONCLUSIONS

CMV levels at hospital postdischarge predict increased risk of 6-month mortality in Kenyan HEU children. CMV suppression may be a novel target to reduce mortality in HEU children.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02414399.

Treatment-seeking and recovery among young undernourished children post-hospital discharge in Bangladesh: A qualitative study

INTRODUCTION

Post-hospital discharge mortality is high among undernourished children in many low and middle-income countries. Although a number of quantitative studies have highlighted a range of potential socio-cultural, economic and health system factors influencing paediatric post-discharge treatment-seeking and recovery, few studies have explored family and provider perspectives of the post-discharge period in-depth.

METHODS

This work was part of a large, multi-country prospective cohort study, the Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network. We conducted a qualitative sub-study to understand the post-discharge treatment-seeking and recovery experiences of families of undernourished children aged 2-23 months admitted in a rural and urban icddr,b (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh) hospital. Methods included repeat in-depth interviews (73 interviews in total) with 29 family members of 17 purposively selected children. These data were supplemented by interviews with 33 health workers, and by observations in hospitals and homes.

RESULTS

Important drivers of treatment-seeking perceived to support recovery included advice provided to family members while in hospital, media campaigns on hygiene practice, availability of free treatment, and social and financial support from family members, relatives and neighbours. Key perceived challenges included low household incomes, mothers having to juggle multiple responsibilities in addition to caring for the sick child, lack of support (sometimes violence) from the child's father, and family members' preference for relatively accessible drug shops, physicians or healers over hospital admission.

CONCLUSION

Development of interventions that address the challenges that families face is essential to support post-discharge adherence to medical advice and recovery. Potential interventions include strengthening information giving during hospitalization on what post-discharge care is needed and why, reducing direct and indirect costs associated with hospital visits, engaging fathers and other 'significant others' in post-discharge advice, and building mobile phone-based support for follow-up care.

The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) network nested case-cohort study protocol: a multi-omics approach to understanding mortality among children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Introduction: Many acutely ill children in low- and middle-income settings have a high risk of mortality both during and after hospitalisation despite guideline-based care. Understanding the biological mechanisms underpinning mortality may suggest optimal pathways to target for interventions to further reduce mortality. The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network ( www.chainnnetwork.org) Nested Case-Cohort Study (CNCC) aims to investigate biological mechanisms leading to inpatient and post-discharge mortality through an integrated multi-omic approach. Methods and analysis; The CNCC comprises a subset of participants from the CHAIN cohort (1278/3101 hospitalised participants, including 350 children who died and 658 survivors, and 270/1140 well community children of similar age and household location) from nine sites in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Systemic proteome, metabolome, lipidome, lipopolysaccharides, haemoglobin variants, toxins, pathogens, intestinal microbiome and biomarkers of enteropathy will be determined. Computational systems biology analysis will include machine learning and multivariate predictive modelling with stacked generalization approaches accounting for the different characteristics of each biological modality. This systems approach is anticipated to yield mechanistic insights, show interactions and behaviours of the components of biological entities, and help develop interventions to reduce mortality among acutely ill children. Ethics and dissemination. The CHAIN Network cohort and CNCC was approved by institutional review boards of all partner sites. Results will be published in open access, peer reviewed scientific journals and presented to academic and policy stakeholders. Data will be made publicly available, including uploading to recognised omics databases. Trial registration NCT03208725.

A Clinical and Physiological Prospective Observational Study on the Management of Pediatric Shock in the Post-Fluid Expansion as Supportive Therapy Trial Era

OBJECTIVES

Fluid bolus resuscitation in African children is harmful. Little research has evaluated physiologic effects of maintenance-only fluid strategy.

DESIGN

We describe the efficacy of fluid-conservative resuscitation of septic shock using case-fatality, hemodynamic, and myocardial function endpoints.

SETTING

Pediatric wards of Mbale Regional Referral Hospital, Uganda, and Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, conducted between October 2013 and July 2015. Data were analysed from August 2016 to July 2019.

PATIENTS

Children (≥ 60 d to ≤ 12 yr) with severe febrile illness and clinical signs of impaired perfusion.

INTERVENTIONS

IV maintenance fluid (4 mL/kg/hr) unless children had World Health Organization (WHO) defined shock (≥ 3 signs) where they received two fluid boluses (20 mL/kg) and transfusion if shock persisted. Clinical, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, and laboratory data were collected at presentation, during resuscitation and on day 28. Outcome measures were 48-hour mortality, normalization of hemodynamics, and cardiac biomarkers.

MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS

Thirty children (70% males) were recruited, six had WHO shock, all of whom died (6/6) versus three of 24 deaths in the non-WHO shock. Median fluid volume received by survivors and nonsurvivors were similar (13 [interquartile range (IQR), 9-32] vs 30 mL/kg [28-61 mL/kg], z = 1.62, p = 0.23). By 24 hours, we observed increases in median (IQR) stroke volume index (39 mL/m 2 [32-42 mL/m 2 ] to 47 mL/m 2 [41-49 mL/m 2 ]) and a measure of systolic function: fractional shortening from 30 (27-33) to 34 (31-38) from baseline including children managed with no-bolus. Children with WHO shock had a higher mean level of cardiac troponin ( t = 3.58; 95% CI, 1.24-1.43; p = 0.02) and alpha-atrial natriuretic peptide ( t = 16.5; 95% CI, 2.80-67.5; p < 0.01) at admission compared with non-WHO shock. Elevated troponin (> 0.1 μg/mL) and hyperlactatemia (> 4 mmol/L) were putative makers predicting outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Maintenance-only fluid therapy normalized clinical and myocardial perturbations in shock without compromising cardiac or hemodynamic function whereas fluid-bolus management of WHO shock resulted in high fatality. Troponin and lactate biomarkers of cardiac dysfunction could be promising outcome predictors in pediatric septic shock in resource-limited settings.

Post-discharge morbidity and mortality in children admitted with severe anaemia and other health conditions in malaria-endemic settings in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Severe anaemia is associated with high in-hospital mortality among young children. In malaria-endemic areas, surviving children also remain at increased risk of mortality for several months after hospital discharge. We aimed to compare the risks of morbidity and mortality among children discharged from hospital after recovery from severe anaemia versus other health conditions in malaria-endemic settings in Africa.

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central from inception to Nov 30, 2021, without language restrictions, for prospective or retrospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials that followed up children younger than 15 years for defined periods after hospital discharge in malaria-endemic countries in Africa. We excluded the intervention groups in trials and studies or subgroups involving children with sickle cell anaemia, malignancies, or surgery or trauma, or those reporting follow-up data that were combined with the in-hospital period. Two independent reviewers extracted the data and assessed the quality and risk of bias using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale or the Cochrane Collaboration's tool. The coprimary outcomes were all-cause death and all-cause readmissions 6 months after discharge. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017079282.

FINDINGS

Of 2930 articles identified in our search, 27 studies were included. For children who were recently discharged following hospital admission with severe anaemia, all-cause mortality by 6 months was higher than during the in-hospital period (n=5 studies; Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio 1·72, 95% CI 1·22-2·44; p=0·0020; I²=51·5%) and more than two times higher than children previously admitted without severe anaemia (n=4 studies; relative risk [RR] 2·69, 95% CI 1·59-4·53; p<0·0001; I²=69·2%). Readmissions within 6 months of discharge were also more common in children admitted with severe anaemia than in children admitted with other conditions (n=1 study; RR 3·05, 1·12-8·35; p<0·0001). Children admitted with severe acute malnutrition (regardless of severe anaemia) also had a higher 6-month mortality after discharge than those admitted for other reasons (n=2 studies; RR=3·12, 2·02-4·68; p<0·0001; I²=54·7%). Other predictors of mortality after discharge included discharge against medical advice, HIV, bacteraemia, and hypoxia.

INTERPRETATION

In malaria-endemic settings in Africa, children admitted to hospital with severe anaemia and severe acute malnutrition are at increased risk of mortality in the first 6 months after discharge compared with children admitted with other health conditions. Improved strategies are needed for the management of these high-risk groups during the period after discharge.

FUNDING

Research Council of Norway and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Childhood mortality during and after acute illness in Africa and south Asia: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mortality among children with acute illness in low-income and middle-income settings remains unacceptably high and the importance of post-discharge mortality is increasingly recognised. We aimed to explore the epidemiology of deaths among young children with acute illness across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to inform the development of interventions and improved guidelines.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled children aged 2-23 months with acute illness, stratified by nutritional status defined by anthropometry (ie, no wasting, moderate wasting, or severe wasting or kwashiorkor), who were admitted to one of nine hospitals in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia between Nov 20, 2016, and Jan 31, 2019. We assisted sites to comply with national guidelines. Co-primary outcomes were mortality within 30 days of hospital admission and post-discharge mortality within 180 days of hospital discharge. A priori exposure domains, including demographic, clinical, and anthropometric characteristics at hospital admission and discharge, as well as child, caregiver, and household-level characteristics, were examined in regression and survival structural equation models.

FINDINGS

Of 3101 children (median age 11 months [IQR 7-16]), 1120 (36·1%) had no wasting, 763 (24·6%) had moderate wasting, and 1218 (39·3%) had severe wasting or kwashiorkor. Of 350 (11·3%) deaths overall, 234 (66·9%) occurred within 30 days of hospital admission and 168 (48·0%) within 180 days of hospital discharge. 90 (53·6%) post-discharge deaths occurred at home. The proportion of children who died following discharge was relatively preserved across nutritional strata. Numerically large high-risk and low-risk groups could be disaggregated for early mortality and post-discharge mortality. Structural equation models identified direct pathways to mortality and multiple socioeconomic, clinical, and nutritional domains acting indirectly through anthropometric status.

INTERPRETATION

Among diverse sites in Africa and south Asia, almost half of mortality occurs following hospital discharge. Despite being highly predictable, these deaths are not addressed in current guidelines. A fundamental shift to a child-centred, risk-based approach to inpatient and post-discharge management is needed to further reduce childhood mortality, and clinical trials of these approaches with outcomes of mortality, readmission, and cost are warranted.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Antimicrobial resistance including Extended Spectrum Beta Lactamases (ESBL) among E. coli isolated from kenyan children at hospital discharge

Background

Children who have been discharged from hospital in sub-Saharan Africa remain at substantial risk of mortality in the post-discharge period. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) may be an important factor. We sought to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with AMR in commensal Escherichia coli(E. coli) from Kenyan children at the time of discharge.

Methodology/Principle findings

Fecal samples were collected from 406 children aged 1–59 months in western Kenya at the time of discharge from hospital and cultured for E. coli. Susceptibility to ampicillin, ceftriaxone, cefotaxime, ceftazidime, cefoxitin, imipenem, ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, combined amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, azithromycin, and chloramphenicol was determined by disc diffusion according to guidelines from the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI). Poisson regression was used to determine associations between participant characteristics and the presence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL) producing E. coli. Non-susceptibility to ampicillin (95%), gentamicin (44%), ceftriaxone (46%), and the presence of ESBL (44%) was high. Receipt of antibiotics during the hospitalization was associated with the presence of ESBL (aPR = 2.23; 95% CI: 1.29–3.83) as was being hospitalized within the prior year (aPR = 1.32 [1.07–1.69]). Open defecation (aPR = 2.02; 95% CI: 1.39–2.94), having a toilet shared with other households (aPR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.17–1.89), and being female (aPR = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.15–1.76) were associated with carriage of ESBL E. coli

Conclusions/Significance

AMR is common among isolates of E. coli from children at hospital discharge in Kenya, including nearly half having detectable ESBL.

Children who have been hospitalized in sub-Saharan Africa remain at a high risk of death and morbidity for at least 6 months following discharge. These children may harbor AMR in commensal bacteria following hospitalization, which may be associated with poor outcomes. There are limited data describing AMR and risk factors that are associated with AMR carriage at hospital discharge. In this cross-sectional study of Kenyan children under 5 years of age discharged from hospitals, we found AMR to be high. Children who received antibiotics in the hospital, had limited access to improved sanitation, and who were female had the highest prevalence of ESBL-producing E. coli.

Children's Oxygen Administration Strategies And Nutrition Trial (COAST-Nutrition): a protocol for a phase II randomised controlled trial

Background: To prevent poor long-term outcomes (deaths and readmissions) the integrated global action plan for pneumonia and diarrhoea recommends under the 'Treat' element of Protect, Prevent and Treat interventions the importance of continued feeding but gives no specific recommendations for nutritional support. Early nutritional support has been practiced in a wide variety of critically ill patients to provide vital cell substrates, antioxidants, vitamins, and minerals essential for normal cell function and decreasing hypermetabolism. We hypothesise that the excess post-discharge mortality associated with pneumonia may relate to the catabolic response and muscle wasting induced by severe infection and inadequacy of the diet to aid recovery. We suggest that providing additional energy-rich, protein, fat and micronutrient ready-to-use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to help meet additional nutritional requirements may improve outcome. Methods: COAST-Nutrition is an open, multicentre, Phase II randomised controlled trial in children aged 6 months to 12 years hospitalised with suspected severe pneumonia (and hypoxaemia, SpO 2 <92%) to establish whether supplementary feeds with RUTF given in addition to usual diet for 56-days (experimental) improves outcomes at 90-days compared to usual diet alone (control). Primary endpoint is change in mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) at 90 days and/or as a composite with 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes include anthropometric status, mortality, readmission at days 28 and 180. The trial will be conducted in four sites in two countries (Uganda and Kenya) enrolling 840 children followed up to 180 days. Ancillary studies include cost-economic analysis, molecular characterisation of bacterial and viral pathogens, evaluation of putative biomarkers of pneumonia, assessment of muscle and fat mass and host genetic studies.   Discussion: This study is the first step in providing an option for nutritional support following severe pneumonia and will help in the design of a large Phase III trial. Registration: ISRCTN10829073 (6 th June 2018) PACTR202106635355751 (2 nd June 2021).

Azithromycin for the prevention of rehospitalisation and death among Kenyan children being discharged from hospital: a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration of azithromycin to children in sub-Saharan Africa has been shown to improve survival in high-mortality settings. The period after hospital discharge is a time of elevated risk unaddressed by current interventions and might provide an opportunity for targeting empirical azithromycin administration. We aimed to assess the efficacy of azithromycin administered at hospital discharge on risk of death and rehospitalisation in Kenyan children younger than 5 years.

METHODS

In this double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial, children were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a 5-day course of azithromycin (oral suspension 10 mg/kg on day 1, followed by 5mg/kg per day on days 2-5) or identically appearing and tasting placebo at discharge from four hospitals in western Kenya. Children were eligible if they were aged 1-59 months at hospital discharge, weighed at least 2 kg, and had been admitted to hospital for any medical reason other than trauma, poisoning, or congenital anomaly. The primary outcome was death or rehospitalisation in the subsequent 6-month period in a modified intention-to-treat population, compared by randomisation group with Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier. Azithromycin resistance in Escherichia coli isolates from a random subset of children was compared by randomisation group with generalised estimating equations. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02414399.

FINDINGS

Between June 28, 2016, and Nov 4, 2019, 1400 children were enrolled in the trial at discharge from hospital, with 703 (50·2%) randomly assigned to azithromycin and 697 (49·8%) to placebo. Among the 1398 children included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis (702 in the azithromycin group and 696 in the placebo group), the incidence of death or rehospitalisation was 20·4 per 100 child-years in the azithromycin group and 22·5 per 100 child-years in the placebo group (adjusted hazard ratio 0·91, 95·5% CI 0·64-1·29, p=0·58). Azithromycin resistance was common in commensal E coli isolates from enrolled children before randomisation (37·7% of 406 isolates) despite only 3·7% of children having received a macrolide antibiotic during the hospitalisation. Azithromycin resistance was slightly higher at 3 months after randomisation in the azithromycin group (26·9%) than in the placebo group (19·1%; adjusted prevalence ratio 1·41, 95% CI 0·95-2·09, p=0·088), with no difference observed at 6 months (1·17, 0·78-1·76, p=0·44).

INTERPRETATION

We did not observe a significant benefit of a 5-day course of azithromycin delivered to children younger than 5 years at hospital discharge despite the overall high risk of mortality and rehospitalisation. These findings highlight the need for more research into mechanisms and interventions for prevention of morbidity and mortality in the post-discharge period.

FUNDING

Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development.

Children's Oxygen Administration Strategies And Nutrition Trial (COAST-Nutrition): a protocol for a phase II randomised controlled trial

Background: To prevent poor long-term outcomes (deaths and readmissions) the integrated global action plan for pneumonia and diarrhoea recommends under the 'Treat' element of Protect, Prevent and Treat interventions the importance of continued feeding but gives no specific recommendations for nutritional support. Early nutritional support has been practiced in a wide variety of critically ill patients to provide vital cell substrates, antioxidants, vitamins, and minerals essential for normal cell function and decreasing hypermetabolism. We hypothesise that the excess post-discharge mortality associated with pneumonia may relate to the catabolic response and muscle wasting induced by severe infection and inadequacy of the diet to aid recovery. We suggest that providing additional energy-rich, protein, fat and micronutrient ready-to-use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to help meet additional nutritional requirements may improve outcome. Methods: COAST-Nutrition is an open, multicentre, Phase II randomised controlled trial in children aged 6 months to 12 years hospitalised with suspected severe pneumonia (and hypoxaemia, SpO 2 <92%) to establish whether supplementary feeds with RUTF given in addition to usual diet for 56-days (experimental) improves outcomes at 90-days compared to usual diet alone (control). Primary endpoint is change in mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) at 90 days and/or as a composite with 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes include anthropometric status, mortality, readmission at days 28 and 180. The trial will be conducted in four sites in two countries (Uganda and Kenya) enrolling 840 children followed up to 180 days. Ancillary studies include cost-economic analysis, molecular characterisation of bacterial and viral pathogens, evaluation of putative biomarkers of pneumonia, assessment of muscle and fat mass and host genetic studies.   Discussion: This study is the first step in providing an option for nutritional support following severe pneumonia and will help in the design of a large Phase III trial. Registration: ISRCTN10829073 (6 th June 2018) PACTR202106635355751 (2 nd June 2021).

Knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of Kenyan healthcare workers regarding pediatric discharge from hospital

OBJECTIVE

To assess attitudes, perceptions, and practices of healthcare workers regarding hospital discharge and follow-up care for children under age five in Migori and Homa Bay, Kenya.

METHODS

This mixed-methods study included surveys and semi-structured telephone interviews with healthcare workers delivering inpatient pediatric care at eight hospitals between November 2017 and December 2018.

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 111 (85%) eligible HCWs. Ninety-seven of the surveyed HCWs were invited for interviews and 39 (40%) participated. Discharge tasks were reported to be "very important" to patient outcomes by over 80% of respondents, but only 37 (33%) perceived their hospital to deliver this care "very well" and 23 (21%) believed their facility provides sufficient resources for its provision. The vast majority (97%) of participants underestimated the risk of pediatric post-discharge mortality. Inadequate training, understaffing, stock-outs of take-home therapeutics, and user fees were commonly reported health systems barriers to adequate discharge care while poverty was seen as limiting caregiver adherence to discharge and follow-up care. Respondents endorsed the importance of follow-up care, but reported supportive mechanisms to be lacking. They requested enhanced guidelines on discharge and follow-up care.

CONCLUSION

Kenyan healthcare workers substantially underestimated the risk of pediatric post-discharge mortality. Pre- and in-service training should incorporate instruction on discharge and follow-up care. Improved post-discharge deaths tracking-e.g., through vital registry systems, child mortality surveillance studies, and community health worker feedback loops-is needed, alongside dissemination which could leverage platforms such as routine hospital-based mortality reports. Finally, further interventional trials are needed to assess the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of novel packages to improve discharge and follow-up care.

A cohort study of survival following discharge from hospital in rural Tanzanian children using linked data of admissions with community-based demographic surveillance

Background

To illustrate the public health potential of linking individual bedside data with community-based household data in a poor rural setting, we estimated excess pediatric mortality risk after discharge from St Francis Designated District Hospital in Ifakara, Tanzania.

Methods

Linked data from demographic and clinical surveillance were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 5 years, by age group and cause of admission. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors.

Results

Between March 2003 and March 2007, demographic surveillance included 28,910 children aged 0 to 5 years and among them 831 (3%) were admitted at least once to the district hospital. From all the children under the demographic surveillance 57,880 person years and 1381 deaths were observed in 24 months of follow up. Survivors of hospital discharge aged 0–5 years were almost two times more likely to die than children of the same age in the community who had not been admitted (RR = 1.9, P < 0.01, 95% CI 1.6, 2.4). Amongst children who had been admitted, mortality rate within a year was highest in infants (93 per 1000 person years) and amongst those admitted due to pneumonia and diarrhoea (97 and 85 per 1000 person years respectively). Those who lived 75 km or further from the district hospital, amongst children who were admitted and survived discharge from hospital, had a three times greater chance of dying within one year compared to those living within 25 km (adjusted HR 3.23, 95% CI 1.54,6.75). The probability of surviving the first 30 days post hospitalization was 94.4% [95% CI 94.4, 94.9], compared to 98.8% [95% CI 97.199.5] in non-hospitalized children of the same age in the commuity.

Conclusion

This study illustrates the potential of linking health related data from facility and household levels. Our results suggest that families may need additional support post hospitalization.

Systemic inflammation is negatively associated with early post discharge growth following acute illness among severely malnourished children - a pilot study

Background: Rapid growth should occur among children with severe malnutrition (SM) with medical and nutritional management. Systemic inflammation (SI) is associated with death among children with SM and is negatively associated with linear growth. However, the relationship between SI and weight gain during therapeutic feeding following acute illness is unknown. We hypothesised that growth post-hospital discharge is associated with SI among children with SM. Methods: We conducted secondary analysis of data from HIV-uninfected children with SM (n=98) who survived and were not readmitted to hospital during one year of follow-up. We examined the relationship between changes in absolute deficits in weight and mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) from enrolment at stabilisation to 60 days and one year later, and untargeted plasma proteome, targeted cytokines/chemokines, leptin, and soluble CD14 using multivariate regularized linear regression. Results: The mean change in absolute deficit in weight and MUAC was -0.50kg (standard deviation; SD±0.69) and -1.20cm (SD±0.89), respectively, from enrolment to 60 days later. During the same period, mean weight and MUAC gain was 3.3g/kg/day (SD±2.4) and 0.22mm/day (SD±0.2), respectively. Enrolment interleukins; IL17-alpha and IL-2, and serum amyloid P were negatively associated with weight and MUAC gain during 60 days. Lipopolysaccharide binding protein and complement component 2 were negatively associated with weight gain only. Leptin was positively associated with weight gain. Soluble CD14, beta-2 microglobulin, and macrophage inflammatory protein 1 beta were negatively associated with MUAC gain only. Glutathione peroxidase 3 was positively associated with weight and MUAC gain during one year. Conclusions: Early post-hospital discharge weight and MUAC gain were rapid and comparable to children with uncomplicated SM treated in the community. Higher concentrations of SI markers were associated with less weight and MUAC gain, suggesting inflammation negatively impacts recovery from wasting. This finding warrants further research on reducing inflammation on growth among children with SM.

Risk factors for postdischarge mortality following hospitalization for severe acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe and Zambia

BACKGROUND

Children discharged from hospital following management of complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have a high risk of mortality, especially HIV-positive children. Few studies have examined mortality in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) era.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to ascertain 52-wk mortality in children discharged from hospital for management of complicated SAM, and to identify independent predictors of mortality.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted in children enrolled from 3 hospitals in Zambia and Zimbabwe between July 2016 and March 2018. The primary outcome was mortality at 52 wk. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for death, and to investigate whether HIV modifies these associations.

RESULTS

Of 745 children, median age at enrolment was 17.4 mo (IQR: 12.8, 22.1 mo), 21.7% were HIV-positive, and 64.4% had edema. Seventy children (9.4%; 95% CI: 7.4, 11.7%) died and 26 exited during hospitalization; 649 were followed postdischarge. At discharge, 43.9% had ongoing SAM and only 50.8% of HIV-positive children were receiving ART. Vital status was ascertained for 604 (93.1%), of whom 55 (9.1%; 95% CI: 6.9, 11.7%) died at median 16.6 wk (IQR: 9.4, 21.9 wk). Overall, 20.0% (95% CI: 13.5, 27.9%) and 5.6% (95% CI: 3.8, 7.9%) of HIV-positive and HIV-negative children, respectively, died [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 3.83; 95% CI: 2.15, 6.82]. Additional independent risk factors for mortality were ongoing SAM (aHR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.22, 4.25), cerebral palsy (aHR: 5.60; 95% CI: 2.72, 11.50) and nonedematous SAM (aHR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.24, 4.01), with no evidence of interaction with HIV status.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-positive children have an almost 4-fold higher mortality than HIV-negative children in the year following hospitalization for complicated SAM. A better understanding of causes of death, an improved continuum of care for HIV and SAM, and targeted interventions to improve convalescence are needed.

Gender-related influences on adherence to advice and treatment-seeking guidance for infants and young children post-hospital discharge in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Post-hospital discharge mortality risk is high among young children in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). The available literature suggests that child, caregiver and health care provider gender all play important roles in post-discharge adherence to medical advice, treatment-seeking and recovery for ill children in LMICs, including those with undernutrition.

METHODS

A qualitative study was embedded within a larger multi-country multi-disciplinary observational cohort study involving children aged less than 2 years conducted by the Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network. Primary data were collected from family members of 22 purposively selected cohort children. Family members were interviewed several times in their homes over the 6 months following hospital discharge (total n = 78 visits to homes). These in-depth interviews were complemented by semi-structured individual interviews with 6 community representatives, 11 community health workers and 12 facility-based health workers, and three group discussions with a total of 24 community representatives. Data were analysed using NVivo11 software, using both narrative and thematic approaches.

RESULTS

We identified gender-related influences at health service/system and household/community levels. These influences interplayed to family members' adherence to medical advice and treatment-seeking after hospital discharge, with potentially important implications for children's recovery. Health service/system level influences included: fewer female medical practitioners in healthcare facilities, which influenced mothers' interest and ability to consult them promptly for their child's illnesses; gender-related challenges for community health workers in supporting mothers with counselling and advice; and male caregivers' being largely absent from the paediatric wards where information sessions to support post-discharge care are offered. Gendered household/community level influences included: women's role as primary caretakers for children and available levels of support; male family members having a dominant role in decision-making related to food and treatment-seeking behaviour; and greater reluctance among parents to invest money and time in the treatment of female children, as compared to male children.

CONCLUSIONS

A complex web of gender related influences at health systems/services and household/community levels have important implications for young children's recovery post-discharge. Immediate interventions with potential for positive impact include awareness-raising among all stakeholders - including male family members - on how gender influences child health and recovery, and how to reduce adverse consequences of gender-based discrimination. Specific interventions could include communication interventions in facilities and homes, and changes in routine practices such as who is present in facility interactions. To maximise and sustain the impact of immediate actions and interventions, the structural drivers of women's position in society and gender inequity must also be tackled. This requires interventions to ensure equal equitable opportunities for men and women in all aspects of life, including access to education and income generation activities. Given patriarchal norms locally and globally, men will likely need special targeting and support in achieving these objectives.

Association of sickle cell disease with anthropometric indices among under-five children: evidence from 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition continues to affect under-five children in Africa to an overwhelming proportion. The situation is further compounded by the burden of sickle cell disease (SCD). However, association of SCD with stunting, wasting, and underweight in a nationally representative sample of under-five children remains unexplored. We aimed to describe prevalence of undernutrition by sickle cell status, to evaluate its association with growth faltering ascertained by anthropometric indices, and to explore mediating role of hemoglobin.

METHODS

We availed data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the sample comprised 11,233 children aged 6-59 months who were successfully genotyped for SCD. The DHS employed a two-stage, stratified sampling strategy. SickleSCAN rapid diagnostic test was used for SCD genotyping. Z-scores of length/height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-height (WHZ), and weight-for-age (WAZ) were computed against the 2006 World Health Organization Child Growth Standards. We fitted logistic regression models to evaluate association of SCD with stunting, wasting, and underweight. Mediation analysis was performed to capture the indirect effect of and proportion of total effect mediated through hemoglobin level in SCD-anthropometric indices association.

RESULTS

Prevalences of stunting, wasting, and underweight among children with SCD were 55.4% (54.5-56.4), 9.1% (8.6-9.7), and 38.9% (38.0-39.8), respectively. The odds of stunting were 2.39 times higher (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.39, 95% CI: 1.26-4.54) among sickle children than those with normal hemoglobin. SCD was also significantly associated with underweight (aOR 2.64, 95% CI: 1.25-5.98), but not with wasting (aOR: 1.60, 95% CI 0.85-3.02). Association of SCD with all three anthropometric indices was significantly mediated through hemoglobin level: for SCD-HAZ, the adjusted indirect effect (aIE) was - 0.328 (95% CI: - 0.387, - 0.270); for SCD-WHZ, the aIE was - 0.080 (95% CI: - 0.114, - 0.050); and for SCD-WAZ, the aIE was - 0.245 (95% CI: - 0.291, - 0.200).

CONCLUSION

We presented compelling evidence of the negative impact of SCD on anthropometric indices of nutritional status of under-five children. Integration of a nutrition-oriented approach into a definitive SCD care package and its nationwide implementation could bring promising results by mitigating the nutritional vulnerability of children with SCD.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5−12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality.

Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74−116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3−38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria. 

Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5-12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality. Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74-116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3-38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria.  Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

Systemic inflammation is negatively associated with early post discharge growth following acute illness among severely malnourished children - a pilot study

Background: Rapid growth should occur among children with severe malnutrition (SM) when medically and nutritionally treated. Systemic inflammation (SI) is associated with death among children with SM and is negatively associated with linear growth. However, the relationship between SI and weight gain during therapeutic feeding following acute illness is unknown. We hypothesised that growth in the first 60 days post-hospital discharge is associated with SI among children with SM. Methods: We conducted secondary analysis of data from HIV-uninfected children with SM (n=98) who survived and were not readmitted to hospital during one year of follow up. We examined the relationship between changes in absolute deficits in weight and mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) from enrolment at stabilisation to 60 days later and untargeted plasma proteome, targeted cytokines/chemokines, leptin, and soluble CD14 (sCD14) using multivariate regularized linear regression. Results: The mean change in absolute deficit in weight and MUAC was -0.50kg (standard deviation; SD±0.69) and -1.20cm (SD±0.89), respectively, from enrolment to 60 days later. During the same period, mean weight and MUAC gain was 3.3g/kg/day (SD±2.4) and 0.22mm/day (SD±0.2), respectively. Enrolment inflammatory cytokines interleukin 17 alpha (IL17α), interleukin 2 (IL2), and serum amyloid P (SAP) were negatively associated with weight and MUAC gain. Lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP) and complement component 2 were negatively associated with weight gain only. Leptin was positively associated with weight gain. sCD14, beta-2 microglobulin (β2M), and macrophage inflammatory protein 1 beta (MIP1β) were negatively associated with MUAC gain only. Conclusions: Early post-hospital discharge weight and MUAC gain were rapid and comparable to children with uncomplicated SM treated with similar diet in the community. Higher concentrations of SI markers were associated with less weight and MUAC gain, suggesting inflammation negatively impacts recovery from wasting. This finding warrants further research on the role of inflammation on growth among children with SM.

Pediatric Patients in a Local Nepali Emergency Department: Presenting Complaints, Triage and Post-Discharge Mortality

Background. In low-income countries, pediatric emergency care is largely underdeveloped although child mortality in emergency care is more than twice that of adults, and mortality after discharge is high. Aim. We aimed at describing characteristics, triage categories, and post-discharge mortality in a pediatric emergency population in Nepal. Methods. We prospectively assessed characteristics and triage categories of pediatric patients who entered the emergency department (ED) in a local hospital. Patient households were followed-up by telephone interviews at 90 days. Results. The majority of pediatric emergency patients presented with injuries and infections (~40% each). Girls attended ED less frequent than boys. High triage priority categories (orange and red) were strong indicators for intensive care need and for mortality after discharge. Conclusion. The study supports the use and development of a pediatric triage systems in a low-resource general ED setting. We identify a need for interventions that can reduce mortality after pediatric emergency care. Interventions to reduce pediatric emergency disease burden in this setting should emphasize prevention and effective treatment of infections and injuries.

Clinical and laboratory predictors of 30-day mortality in severe acute malnourished children with severe pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

To determine the predictors of mortality within 30 days of hospital admission in a diarrhoeal disease hospital in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Cohort study of hospitalised children aged 0-59 months with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and severe pneumonia in Dhaka Hospital, icddr,b, Bangladesh from April 2015 to March 2017. Those discharged were followed up, and survival status at 30 days from admission was determined. Children who died were compared with the survivors in terms of clinical and laboratory biomarkers. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used for calculating adjusted odds ratio for death within 30 days of hospital admission.

RESULTS

We enrolled 191 children. Mortality within 30 days of admission was 6% (14/191). After adjusting for potential confounders (hypoxia, CRP and haematocrit) in logistic regression analysis, independent factors associated with death were female sex (aOR = 5.80, 95% CI: 1.34-25.19), LAZ <-4 (aOR = 6.51, 95% CI: 1.49-28.44) and Polymorphonuclear Leucocytes (PMNL) (>6.0 × 10⁹ /L) (aOR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.11). Using sex, Z-score for length for age (LAZ), and PMNL percentage, we used random forest and linear regression models to achieve a cross-validated AUC of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.84) for prediction of 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our data suggest that female sex, severe malnutrition (<-4 LAZ) and higher PMNL percentage were prone to be associated with 30-day mortality in children with severe pneumonia. Association of these factors may be used in clinical decision support for prompt identification and appropriate management for prevention of mortality in this population.

Survival status and mortality predictors among severely malnourished under 5 years of age children admitted to Minia University maternity and children hospital

BACKGROUND

Though effective treatment programs for severely malnourished children are available, mortality rate among children with acute malnutrition continue to rise and little is known about its long-term outcomes and potential predictors of its in-hospital and post-discharge mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the survival status and predictors for mortality in severely malnourished children admitted to Minia University Maternity and Children Hospital.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study which included 135 children under 5 years of age who were admitted to the nutrition rehabilitation ward with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) during the period from January to December 2018. Data were collected from the inpatient's hospital records and the children's parents/guardians were interviewed using a detailed structured questionnaire that inquired about demographic and socioeconomic variables. The logistic and Cox regressions were used to assess the factors associated with the SAM's mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 135 children were enrolled into the study. Death rate during hospitalization was 9.6%. The survival rate at the end of the fourth week of admission was 82.4%. There were 6.7% post-discharge deaths among 104 alive discharged children which occurred within 8 weeks after discharge. The adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for total SAM deaths were 1.57 (1.10-2.99) in children < 12 vs ≥ 12 months old; 4.79 (2.23-6.10) in those with WAZ < -3SD, 2.99 (1.16-4.66) in those with edema at admission and 3.44 (1.07-9.86) in children with complications. The respective ORs (95%CIs) for in-hospital SAM deaths in the same groups of children were 2.64 (1.22-6.43), 8.10 (2.16-11.67), 3.04 (1.70-6.06) and 3.71 (1.59-6.78). The main predictor for the SAM's post-discharge mortality was illiteracy of mothers; the adjusted HR (95%CI) was 7.10 (1.58-31.93; p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Age, WAZ, edema and complications at admission were predictors for both in-hospital and total SAM mortality, while mother's education contributed to the early post-discharge mortality. The identification of predictors for mortality is an important preliminary step for interventions aiming to reduce morbidity and mortality.

A quantitative cross-sectional survey of psychosocial stimulation and counselling interventions at nutritional rehabilitation units in Southern Malawi

Background

Inpatient treatment at nutritional rehabilitation units (NRUs) is needed for children who have severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and acute illness, loss of appetite, or severe oedema. World Health Organization guidelines state that nutritional counselling should be done with primary caregivers at NRUs. These recommendations also include psychosocial stimulation interventions to improve developmental outcomes in children with SAM. However, there is limited information about the delivery of these types of interventions for caregivers and children in NRU settings. The primary objective of this research was therefore to obtain data about NRU resources, activities, and protocols relevant to psychosocial stimulation and counselling interventions during inpatient treatment of children with SAM.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was administered by interview at all 16 NRUs in seven districts in Southern Malawi. Participants were health workers, nurses, and nutritionists employed at the respective NRUs.

Results

The response rate was 100% across NRUs. Half of participants said that psychosocial stimulation interventions are conducted at their respective NRUs, yet none of the NRUs have protocols for delivery of these interventions. Furthermore, 7/16 (44%) NRUs have no resources for psychosocial stimulation including play materials. Thirteen of 16 (81%) participants said that they feel this type of intervention is very important and 3/16 (19%) participants said that this somewhat important for children with SAM. All NRUs provide counselling to caregivers about breastfeeding and nutrition; 15/16 (94%) also give counselling about water, sanitation and hygiene.

Conclusions

Ultimately, results from this survey highlighted that there is a need to invest in comprehensive interventions to improve developmental and nutritional outcomes in these vulnerable children requiring admission to NRUs.

Projected impact and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus targeted azithromycin administration strategies for reducing child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Trials of mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin (AZM) report reductions in child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). AZM targeted to high-risk children may preserve benefit while minimizing antibiotic exposure. We modeled the cost-effectiveness of MDA to children 1-59 months of age, MDA to children 1-5 months of age, AZM administered at hospital discharge, and the combination of MDA and post-discharge AZM.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Models employed a payer perspective with a 1-year time horizon. Cost-effectiveness was presented as cost per DALY averted and death averted, with probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The model included parameters for macrolide resistance, adverse events, hospitalization, and mortality sourced from published data. Assuming a base-case 1.64% mortality risk among children 1-59 months old, 3.1% among children 1-5 months old, 4.4% mortality risk post-discharge, and 13.5% mortality reduction per trial data, post-discharge AZM would avert ~45,000 deaths, at a cost of $2.84/DALY (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.71-5.57) averted. MDA to only children 1-5 months old would avert ~186,000 deaths at a cost of $4.89/DALY averted (95% UI: 2.88-11.42), MDA to all under-5 children would avert ~267,000 deaths a cost of $14.26/DALY averted (95% UI: 8.72-27.08). Cost-effectiveness decreased with presumed diminished efficacy due to macrolide resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting AZM to children at highest risk of death may be an antibiotic-sparing and cost-effective, or even cost-saving, strategy to reduce child mortality. However, targeted AZM averts fewer absolute deaths and may not reach all children who would benefit. Any AZM administration decision must consider implications for antibiotic resistance.

Phenotype is sustained during hospital readmissions following treatment for complicated severe malnutrition among Kenyan children: A retrospective cohort study

Hospital readmission is common among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition (cSAM) but not well‐characterised. Two distinct cSAM phenotypes, marasmus and kwashiorkor, exist, but their pathophysiology and whether the same phenotype persists at relapse are unclear. We aimed to test the association between cSAM phenotype at index admission and readmission following recovery. We performed secondary data analysis from a multicentre randomised trial in Kenya with 1‐year active follow‐up. The main outcome was cSAM phenotype upon hospital readmission. Among 1,704 HIV‐negative children with cSAM discharged in the trial, 177 children contributed a total of 246 readmissions with cSAM. cSAM readmission was associated with age<12 months (p = .005), but not site, sex, season, nor cSAM phenotype. Of these, 42 children contributed 44 readmissions with cSAM that occurred after a monthly visit when SAM was confirmed absent (cSAM relapse). cSAM phenotype was sustained during cSAM relapse. The adjusted odds ratio for presenting with kwashiorkor during readmission after kwashiorkor at index admission was 39.3 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) [2.69, 1,326]; p = .01); and for presenting with marasmus during readmission after kwashiorkor at index admission was 0.02 (95% CI [0.001, 0.037]; p = .01). To validate this finding, we examined readmissions to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya occurring at least 2 months after an admission with cSAM. Among 2,412 children with cSAM discharged alive, there were 206 readmissions with cSAM. Their phenotype at readmission was significantly influenced by their phenotype at index admission (p < .001). This is the first report describing the phenotype and rate of cSAM recurrence.

Urinary Organic Acids Increase After Clinical Stabilization of Hospitalized Children With Severe Acute Malnutrition

BACKGROUND

Despite a reduction of child mortality in low-income countries, acutely ill undernourished children still have an elevated risk of death. Those at highest risk are children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) who often show metabolic dysregulation that remains poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

We performed a pilot study to examine changes in urinary organic acids during nutritional rehabilitation of children with SAM, and to identify metabolites associated with the presence of edema or with mortality.

METHODS

This study included 76 children aged between 6 and 60 months, hospitalized for SAM at the Moyo Nutritional Rehabilitation and Research Unit in Blantyre, Malawi. Urine was collected at admission and 3 days after clinical stabilization and metabolomics were performed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Metabolite concentrations were evaluated with both uni- and multivariate approaches.

RESULTS

Most metabolites increased 3 days after clinical stabilization, and total urinary concentration changed from 1.2 mM (interquartile range [IQR], 0.78-1.7) at admission to 3.8 mM (IQR, 2.1-6.6) after stabilization (P < .0001). In particular, 6 metabolites showed increases: 3-hydroxybutyric, 4-hydroxyhippuric, p-hydroxyphenylacetic, oxoglutaric, succinic, and lactic acids. Urinary creatinine was low at both time points, but levels did increase from 0.63 mM (IQR, 0.2-1.2) to 2.6 mM (IQR,1.6-4.4; P < .0001). No differences in urinary profiles were found between children who died versus those who survived, nor between children with severe wasting or edematous SAM.

CONCLUSIONS

Total urinary metabolites and creatinine increase after stabilization and may reflect partial recovery of overall metabolism linked to refeeding. The use of urinary metabolites for risk assessment should be furthered explored.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

TranSAM study (ISRCTN13916953).

Effect of strikes by health workers on mortality between 2010 and 2016 in Kilifi, Kenya: a population-based cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Health workers' strikes are a global occurrence. Kenya has had several strikes by health workers in recent years but their effect on mortality is unknown. We assessed the effect on mortality of six strikes by health workers that occurred from 2010 to 2016 in Kilifi, Kenya.

METHODS

Using daily mortality data obtained from the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, we fitted a negative binomial regression model to estimate the change in mortality during strike periods and in the 2 weeks immediately after strikes. We did subgroup analyses by age, cause of death, and strike week.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2010, and Nov 30, 2016, we recorded 1 829 929 person-years of observation, 6396 deaths, and 128 strike days (median duration of strikes, 18·5 days [range 9-42]). In the primary analysis, no change in all-cause mortality was noted during strike periods (adjusted rate ratio [RR] 0·93, 95% CI 0·81-1·08; p=0·34). Weak evidence was recorded of variation in mortality rates by age group, with an apparent decrease among infants aged 1-11 months (adjusted RR 0·58, 95% CI 0·33-1·03; p=0·064) and an increase among children aged 12-59 months (1·75, 1·11-2·76; p=0·016). No change was noted in mortality rates in post-strike periods and for any category of cause of death.

INTERPRETATION

The brief strikes by health workers during the period 2010-16 were not associated with obvious changes in overall mortality in Kilifi. The combined effects of private (and some public) health care during strike periods, a high proportion of out-of-hospital deaths, and a low number of events might have led us to underestimate the effect.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust and MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group.

Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network: a protocol for a multi-site prospective cohort study to identify modifiable risk factors for mortality among acutely ill children in Africa and Asia

INTRODUCTION

Children admitted to hospitals in resource-poor settings remain at risk of both inpatient and post-discharge mortality. While known risk factors such as young age and nutritional status can identify children at risk, they do not provide clear mechanistic targets for intervention. The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) cohort study aims to characterise the biomedical and social risk factors for mortality in acutely ill children in hospitals and after discharge to identify targeted interventions to reduce mortality.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The CHAIN network is currently undertaking a multi-site, prospective, observational cohort study, enrolling children aged 1 week to 2 years at admission to hospitals at nine sites located in four African and two South Asian countries. The CHAIN Network supports the sites to provide care according to national and international guidelines. Enrolment is stratified by anthropometric status and children are followed throughout hospitalisation and for 6 months after discharge. Detailed clinical, demographic, anthropometric, laboratory and social exposures are assessed. Scheduled visits are conducted at 45, 90 and 180 days after discharge. Blood, stool and rectal swabs are collected at enrolment, hospital discharge and follow-up. The primary outcome is inpatient or post-discharge death. Secondary outcomes include readmission to hospital and nutritional status after discharge. Cohort analysis will identify modifiable risks, children with distinct phenotypes, relationships between factors and mechanisms underlying poor outcomes that may be targets for intervention. A nested case-control study examining infectious, immunological, metabolic, nutritional and other biological factors will be undertaken.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study protocol was reviewed and approved primarily by the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee, and the institutional review boards of all partner sites. The study is being externally monitored. Results will be published in open access peer-reviewed scientific journals and presented to academic and policy stakeholders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03208725.

Biomarkers of post-discharge mortality among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition

High mortality after discharge from hospital following acute illness has been observed among children with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). However, mechanisms that may be amenable to intervention to reduce risk are unknown. We performed a nested case-control study among HIV-uninfected children aged 2-59 months treated for complicated SAM according to WHO recommendations at four Kenyan hospitals. Blood was drawn from 1778 children when clinically judged stable before discharge from hospital. Cases were children who died within 60 days. Controls were randomly selected children who survived for one year without readmission to hospital. Untargeted proteomics, total protein, cytokines and chemokines, and leptin were assayed in plasma and corresponding biological processes determined. Among 121 cases and 120 controls, increased levels of calprotectin, von Willebrand factor, angiotensinogen, IL8, IL15, IP10, TNFα, and decreased levels of leptin, heparin cofactor 2, and serum paraoxonase were associated with mortality after adjusting for possible confounders. Acute phase responses, cellular responses to lipopolysaccharide, neutrophil responses to bacteria, and endothelial responses were enriched among cases. Among apparently clinically stable children with SAM, a sepsis-like profile is associated with subsequent death. This may be due to ongoing bacterial infection, translocated bacterial products or deranged immune response during nutritional recovery.

Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy and cost of different methods for the assessment of severe anaemia in hospitalised children in Eastern Uganda

Background: Severe anaemia in children requiring hospital admission is a major public health problem in malaria-endemic Africa. Affordable methods for the assessment of haemoglobin have not been validated against gold standard measures for identifying those with severe anaemia requiring a blood transfusion, despite this resource being in short supply. Methods: We conducted a prospective descriptive study of hospitalized children aged 2 months - 12 years at Mbale and Soroti Regional Referral Hospitals, assessed to have pallor at triage by a nurse and two clinicians. Haemoglobin levels were measured using the HemoCue ® Hb 301 system (gold standard); the Haemoglobin Colour Scale; Colorimetric and Sahli's methods. We report clinical assessments of the degree of pallor, clinicians' intention to transfuse, inter-observer agreement, limits of agreement using the Bland-Altman method, and the sensitivity and specificity of each method in comparison to HemoCue ® Results: We recruited 322 children, clinically-assessed by the admitting nurse (n=314) as having severe (166; 51.6%), moderate (97; 30.1%) or mild (51; 15.8%) pallor. Agreement between the clinicians and the nurse were good: Clinician A Kappa=0.68 (0.60-0.76) and Clinician B Kappa=0.62 (0.53-0.71) respectively ( P<0.0001 for both). The nurse, clinicians A and B indicated that of 94/116 (81.0%), 83/121 (68.6%) and 93/120 (77.5%) respectively required transfusion. HemoCue ® readings indicated anaemia as mild (Hb10.0-11.9g/dl) in 8/292 (2.7%), moderate (Hb5.0-9.9g/dl) in 132/292 (45.2%) and severe (Hb<5.0g/dl) in 152/292 (52.1%). Comparing to HemoCue® the Sahli's method performed best in estimation of severe anaemia, with sensitivity 84.0% and specificity 87.9% and a Kappa score of  0.70 (0.64-0.80). Conclusions: Clinical assessment of severe pallor results has a low specificity for the diagnosis of severe anaemia. To target blood transfusion Hb measurement by either Hemocue® or Sahli's method for the cost of USD 4 or and USD 0.25 per test, respectively would be more cost-effective.

Health Outcomes, Pathogenesis and Epidemiology of Severe Acute Malnutrition (HOPE-SAM): rationale and methods of a longitudinal observational study

INTRODUCTION

Mortality among children hospitalised for complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains high despite the implementation of WHO guidelines, particularly in settings of high HIV prevalence. Children continue to be at high risk of morbidity, mortality and relapse after discharge from hospital although long-term outcomes are not well documented. Better understanding the pathogenesis of SAM and the factors associated with poor outcomes may inform new therapeutic interventions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Health Outcomes, Pathogenesis and Epidemiology of Severe Acute Malnutrition (HOPE-SAM) study is a longitudinal observational cohort that aims to evaluate the short-term and long-term clinical outcomes of HIV-positive and HIV-negative children with complicated SAM, and to identify the risk factors at admission and discharge from hospital that independently predict poor outcomes. Children aged 0-59 months hospitalised for SAM are being enrolled at three tertiary hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe and Lusaka, Zambia. Longitudinal mortality, morbidity and nutritional data are being collected at admission, discharge and for 48 weeks post discharge. Nested laboratory substudies are exploring the role of enteropathy, gut microbiota, metabolomics and cellular immune function in the pathogenesis of SAM using stool, urine and blood collected from participants and from well-nourished controls.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study is approved by the local and international institutional review boards in the participating countries (the Joint Research Ethics Committee of the University of Zimbabwe, Medical Research Council of Zimbabwe and University of Zambia Biomedical Research Ethics Committee) and the study sponsor (Queen Mary University of London). Caregivers provide written informed consent for each participant. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and to caregivers at face-to-face meetings.

Mortality after inpatient treatment for diarrhea in children: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is an increasing recognition that children remain at elevated risk of death following discharge from health facilities in resource-poor settings. Diarrhea has previously been highlighted as a risk factor for post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to estimate the incidence and demographic, clinical, and biochemical features associated with inpatient and 1-year post-discharge mortality amongst children aged 2-59 months admitted with diarrhea from 2007 to 2015 at Kilifi County Hospital and who were residents of Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Log-binomial regression was used to identify risk factors for inpatient mortality. Time at risk was from the date of discharge to the date of death, out-migration, or 365 days later. Post-discharge mortality rate was computed per 1000 child-years of observation, and Cox proportion regression used to identify risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

Two thousand six hundred twenty-six child KHDSS residents were admitted with diarrhea, median age 13 (IQR 8-21) months, of which 415 (16%) were severely malnourished and 130 (5.0%) had a positive HIV test. One hundred twenty-one (4.6%) died in the hospital, and of 2505 children discharged alive, 49 (2.1%) died after discharge: 21.4 (95% CI 16.1-28.3) deaths per 1000 child-years. Admission with signs of both diarrhea and severe pneumonia or severe pneumonia alone had a higher risk of both inpatient and post-discharge mortality than admission for diarrhea alone. There was no significant difference in inpatient and post-discharge mortality between children admitted with diarrhea alone and those with other diagnoses excluding severe pneumonia. HIV, low mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), and bacteremia were associated with both inpatient and post-discharge mortality. Signs of circulatory impairment, sepsis, and abnormal electrolytes were associated with inpatient but not post-discharge mortality. Prior admission and lower chest wall indrawing were associated with post-discharge mortality but not inpatient mortality. Age, stuntedness, and persistent or bloody diarrhea were not associated with mortality before or after discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results accentuate the need for research to improve the uptake and outcomes of services for malnutrition and HIV as well as to elucidate causal pathways and test interventions to mitigate these risks.

The introduction of a paediatric nutrition support program led by a clinical dietitian at a low-resource hospital setting in Malawi

In low- and middle-income countries, nutrition support strategies are often suboptimal or non-existent in hospital settings. This is further compounded by high rates of malnutrition in these countries. The first four dietitians graduated in Malawi in 2017 providing a new opportunity to build capacity to introduce nutrition support in an acute care setting. A paediatric nutrition support program was implemented at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH) in Blantyre, Malawi including the hiring of a local dietitian. This capacity building paper explains the development and introduction of the nutrition support program including a description of perceptions of health professionals at QECH working alongside the dietitian. In the first four months of the program at QECH, the dietitian provided nutrition support to 183 different patients across paediatric wards. Nutritional interventions predominantly included infant formula and breastmilk fortification, provision of therapeutic feeds orally or via nasogastric tubes, increased dietary protein intake for children identified to be at high risk, and nutritional counselling to caregivers. More complex nutritional interventions were also given such as the insertion of gastrostomy tubes to deliver nutrition directly to the stomach. Following the introduction of the program, qualitative interviews were done with health professionals at QECH including nurses (n = 5) and physicians (n = 11). All participants emphasized the importance and impact of the nutrition support program in enhancing the care of hospitalized children, therefore improving outcomes such as tolerability of clinical interventions, decreased duration of stay, and reduced risk of hospital readmission. In conclusion, there is a need for nutrition support provided by a dietitian for different paediatric patients which was corroborated by positive feedback from health professionals at QECH. Integration of dietitians into the healthcare system by respective Ministries of Health will require advocacy around the potential for nutrition support to strengthen the quality of care of vulnerable children. A Chichewa abstract for this paper is available in a supplementary file.

Postdischarge Mortality Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Although the burden of postdischarge mortality (PDM) in low-income settings appears to be significant, no clear recommendations have been proposed in relation to follow-up care after hospitalization. We aimed to determine the burden of pediatric PDM and develop predictive models to identify children who are at risk for dying after discharge.

METHODS

Deaths after hospital discharge among children aged <15 years in the last 17 years were reviewed in an area under demographic and morbidity surveillance in Southern Mozambique. We determined PDM over time (up to 90 days) and derived predictive models of PDM using easily collected variables on admission.

RESULTS

Overall PDM was high (3.6%), with half of the deaths occurring in the first 30 days. One primary predictive model for all ages included young age, moderate or severe malnutrition, a history of diarrhea, clinical pneumonia symptoms, prostration, bacteremia, having a positive HIV status, the rainy season, and transfer or absconding, with an area under the curve of 0.79 (0.75-0.82) at day 90 after discharge. Alternative models for all ages including simplified clinical predictors had a similar performance. A model specific to infants <3 months old was used to identify as predictors being a neonate, having a low weight-for-age z score, having breathing difficulties, having hypothermia or fever, having oral candidiasis, and having a history of absconding or transfer to another hospital, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (0.72-0.91) at day 90 of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Death after discharge is an important although poorly recognized contributor to child mortality. A simple predictive algorithm based on easily recognizable variables could readily be used to identify most infants and children who are at a high risk of dying after discharge.

Paediatric postdischarge mortality in developing countries: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To update the current evidence base on paediatric postdischarge mortality (PDM) in developing countries. Secondary objectives included an evaluation of risk factors, timing and location of PDM.

DESIGN

Systematic literature review without meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Searches of Medline and EMBASE were conducted from October 2012 to July 2017.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies were included if they were conducted in developing countries and examined paediatric PDM. 1238 articles were screened, yielding 11 eligible studies. These were added to 13 studies identified in a previous systematic review including studies prior to October 2012. In total, 24 studies were included for analysis.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent reviewers extracted and synthesised data using Microsoft Excel.

RESULTS

Studies were conducted mostly within African countries (19 of 24) and looked at all admissions or specific subsets of admissions. The primary subpopulations included malnutrition, respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, malaria and anaemia. The anaemia and malaria subpopulations had the lowest PDM rates (typically 1%-2%), while those with malnutrition and respiratory infections had the highest (typically 3%-20%). Although there was significant heterogeneity between study populations and follow-up periods, studies consistently found rates of PDM to be similar, or to exceed, in-hospital mortality. Furthermore, over two-thirds of deaths after discharge occurred at home. Highly significant risk factors for PDM across all infectious admissions included HIV status, young age, pneumonia, malnutrition, anthropometric variables, hypoxia, anaemia, leaving hospital against medical advice and previous hospitalisations.

CONCLUSIONS

Postdischarge mortality rates are often as high as in-hospital mortality, yet remain largely unaddressed. Most children who die following discharge do so at home, suggesting that interventions applied prior to discharge are ideal to addressing this neglected cause of mortality. The development, therefore, of evidence-based, risk-guided, interventions must be a focus to achieve the sustainable development goals.

Predictors of Mortality in Neonates and Infants Hospitalized With Sepsis or Serious Infections in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review

Background: Neonates and infants comprise the majority of the 6 million annual deaths under 5 years of age around the world. Most of these deaths occur in low/middle income countries (LMICs) and are preventable. However, the clinical identification of neonates and infants at imminent risk of death is challenging in developing countries. Objective: To systematically review the literature on clinical risk factors for mortality in infants under 12 months of age hospitalized for sepsis or serious infections in LMICs. Methods: MEDLINE and EMBASE were systematically searched using MeSH terms through April 2017. Abstracts were independently screened by two reviewers. Subsequently, full-text articles were selected by two independent reviewers based on PICOS criteria for inclusion in the final analysis. Study data were qualitatively synthesized without quantitative pooling of data due to heterogeneity in study populations and methodology. Results: A total of 1,139 abstracts were screened, and 169 full-text articles were selected for text review. Of these, 45 articles were included in the analysis, with 21 articles featuring neonatal populations (under 28 days of age) exclusively. Most studies were from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Risk factors for mortality varied significantly according to study populations. For neonatal deaths, prematurity, low birth-weight and young age at presentation were most frequently associated with mortality. For infant deaths, malnutrition, lack of breastfeeding and low oxygen saturation were associated with mortality in the highest number of studies. Conclusions: Risk factors for mortality differ between the neonatal and young infant age groups and were also dependant on the study population. These data can serve as a starting point for the development of individualized predictive models for in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and for the development of interventions to improve outcomes among these high-risk groups.

Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy and cost of different methods for the assessment of severe anaemia in hospitalised children in Eastern Uganda

Background: Severe anaemia in children requiring hospital admission is a major public health problem in malaria-endemic Africa. Affordable methods for the assessment of haemoglobin have not been validated against gold standard measures for identifying those with severe anaemia requiring a blood transfusion, despite this resource being in short supply. Methods: We conducted a prospective descriptive study of hospitalized children aged 2 months - 12 years at Mbale and Soroti Regional Referral Hospitals, assessed to have pallor at triage by a nurse and two clinicians. Haemoglobin levels were measured using the HemoCue ® Hb 301 system (gold standard); the Haemoglobin Colour Scale; calorimetric and Sahli's methods. We report clinical assessments of the degree of pallor, clinicians' intention to transfuse, inter-observer agreement, limits of agreement using the Bland-Altman method, and the sensitivity and specificity of each method in comparison to HemoCue ® Results: We recruited 322 children assessed by the admitting nurse as having severe (164; 51.0%), moderate (99; 30.7%) or mild (57; 17.7%) pallor. Agreement between the clinicians and the nurse were good: Clinician A Kappa=0.68 (0.60-0.76) and Clinician B Kappa=0.62 (0.53-0.71) respectively ( P<0.0001 for both). The nurse, clinicians A and B indicated that of 94/116 (81.0%), 83/121 (68.6%) and 93/120 (77.5%) respectively required transfusion. HemoCue ® readings indicated anaemia as mild (Hb10.0-11.9g/dl) in 8/292 (2.7%), moderate (Hb5.0-9.9g/dl) in 132/292 (45.2%) and severe (Hb<5.0g/dl) in 152/292 (52.1%). Comparing to HemoCue® the Sahli's method performed best in estimation of severe anaemia, with sensitivity 84.0% and specificity 87.9% and a Kappa score of  0.70 (0.64-0.80). Conclusions: Clinical assessment of severe pallor results has a low specificity for the diagnosis of severe anaemia. To target blood transfusion Hb measurement by either Hemocue® or Sahli's method for the cost of USD 4 or and USD 0.25 per test, respectively would be more cost-effective.

Prevalence and associated factors of pediatric emergency mortality at Tikur Anbessa specialized tertiary hospital: a 5 year retrospective case review study

BACKGROUND

Childhood mortality remains high in resource-limited third world countries. Most childhood deaths in hospital often occur within the first 24 h of admission. Many of these deaths are from preventable causes. This study aims to describe the patterns of mortality in children presenting to the pediatric emergency department.

METHODS

This was a five-year chart review of deaths in pediatric patients aged 7 days to 13 years presenting to the Tikur Anbessa Specialized Tertiary Hospital (TASTH) from January 2012 to December 2016. Data were collected using a pretested, structured checklist, and analyzed using the SPSS Version 20. Multivariate analysis by logistic regression was carried out to estimate any measures of association between variables of interest and the primary outcome of death.

RESULTS

The proportion of pediatric emergency department (PED) deaths was 4.1% (499 patients) out of 12,240 PED presentations. This translates to a mortality rate of 8.2 deaths per 1000 patients per year. The three top causes of deaths were pneumonia, congestive heart failure (CHF) and sepsis. Thirty two percent of the deaths occurred within 24 h of presentation with 6.5% of the deaths being neonates and the most common co-morbid illness was malnutrition (41.1%). Multivariate analysis revealed that shortness of breath [AOR=2.45, 95% CI (1.22-4.91)], late onset of signs and symptoms [AOR=3.22, 95% CI (1.34-7.73)], fever [AOR=3.17, 95% CI (1.28-7.86)], and diarrhea [AOR=3.36, 95% CI (1.69-6.67)] had significant association with early mortality.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of pediatric emergency mortality was high in our study. A delay in presentation of more than 48 hours, diarrheal diseases and shortness of breath were significantly associated with early pediatric mortality. Early identification and intervention are required to reduce pediatric emergency mortality.

Survival and nutritional status of children with severe acute malnutrition, six months post-discharge from outpatient treatment in Jigawa state, Nigeria

Background

The Outpatient Therapeutic Program (OTP) for treatment brings the management of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) closer to the community. Many lives have been saved through this approach, but little data exists on the outcome of the children after discharge from such programmes. This study was aimed to determine the survival and nutritional status of children at six months after discharge from OTP for SAM.

Methodology

This was a prospective study of children with SAM admitted into 10 OTPs in two local government areas of Jigawa state from June 2016 to July 2016.

Home visits at six months after discharge enabled the collection of data on survival and nutritional status.

The primary outcome measures were survival and nutritional status (Mid upper arm circumference and weight-for-height z-score).

Result

Of 494 children with SAM, 410 were discharged and 379 were followed up. Of these, 354, (93.4%) were found alive while 25 (6.6%) died. Among the survivors 333 (94.1%) had MUAC ≥12.5cm and 64 (18.1%) had WHZ<-3.

Mortality rates were higher 10 (8.4%) among the 6-11months old. Most deaths 16 (64%) occurred within the first 3months post-discharge. Those who died were significantly more stunted, p = 0.016 and had a smaller head circumference, p = 0.005 on entry to OTP programme.

There was improvement from admission to six months follow up in the number of children with complete immunization (27.4% to 35.6%), and a decrease in the number of unimmunized children (34.8% vs 20.6%) at follow-up.

Conclusion

The study demonstrates good post discharge survival rate and improved nutritional status for SAM patients managed in OTPs. There were, however considerable post discharge mortality, especially in the first three months and lower immunization uptake post discharge. A follow-up programme will improve these indices further.

HIV and early hospital readmission: evaluation of a tertiary medical facility in Lilongwe, Malawi

BACKGROUND

Delivery of quality healthcare in resource-limited settings is an important, understudied public health priority. Thirty-day (early) hospital readmission is often avoidable and an important indicator of healthcare quality.

METHODS

We investigated the prevalence of all-cause early readmission and its associated factors using age and sex adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A retrospective review of the medical ward database at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi was conducted between February and December 2013.

RESULTS

There were 3547 patients with an index admission of which 2776 (74.4%) survived and were eligible for readmission. Among these patients: 49.7% were male, mean age was 39.7 years, 36.1% were HIV-positive, 34.6% were HIV-negative, and 29.3% were HIV-unknown. The prevalence of early hospital readmission was 5.5%. Diagnoses associated with 30-day readmission were HIV-positive status (RR = 2.41; 95% CI: 1.64-3.53) and malaria (RR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.22-0.91). Other factors associated with readmission were multiple diagnoses (excluding HIV) (RR = 1.52; 95% CI: 1.11-2.06), and prolonged length of stay (≥ 16 days) at the index hospitalization (RR = 3.63; 95% CI: 1.72-7.67).

CONCLUSION

Targeting HIV-infected inpatients with multiple diagnoses and longer index hospitalizations may prevent early readmission and improve quality of care.