Increased Number of Human Cases of Influenza Virus A(H5N1) Infection, Egypt, 2014-15

State and situation of avian influenza in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Avian influenza viruses have had a significant burden of disease on animal and public health in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region. In this review, we aimed at describing the state of avian influenza in the region from 2011 to 2021. We gathered information available through the peer-reviewed scientific literature, public gene sequence depositories, OIE World Animal Health Information System platform, World Health Organization FluNet, Joint External Evaluation reports, and governmental, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and World Organization for Animal Health websites. We used an interdisciplinary perspective consistent with the One Health approach to perform a qualitative synthesis and making recommendations. Analysis showed that although avian influenza research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region has gained more attention during the last decade, it was limited to only few countries and to basic science research. Data highlighted the weakness in surveillance systems and reporting platforms causing underestimation of the actual burden of disease among humans and animals. Inter-sectoral communication and collaboration for avian influenza prevention, detection, and response remain weak. Influenza surveillance at the human-animal interface and the application of the One Health paradigm are lacking. Countries' animal health and public health sectors rarely publish their surveillance data and findings. This review suggested that surveillance at the human-animal interface, research, and reporting capacities should be enhanced to improve understanding and control of avian influenza in the region. Implementing a rapid and comprehensive One Health approach for zoonotic influenza in the Eastern Mediterranean Region is recommended.

Phenotypic effects of mutations observed in the neuraminidase of human origin H5N1 influenza A viruses

Global spread and regional endemicity of H5Nx Goose/Guangdong avian influenza viruses (AIV) pose a continuous threat for poultry production and zoonotic, potentially pre-pandemic, transmission to humans. Little is known about the role of mutations in the viral neuraminidase (NA) that accompanied bird-to-human transmission to support AIV infection of mammals. Here, after detailed analysis of the NA sequence of human H5N1 viruses, we studied the role of A46D, L204M, S319F and S430G mutations in virus fitness in vitro and in vivo. Although H5N1 AIV carrying avian- or human-like NAs had similar replication efficiency in avian cells, human-like NA enhanced virus replication in human airway epithelia. The L204M substitution consistently reduced NA activity of H5N1 and nine other influenza viruses carrying NA of groups 1 and 2, indicating a universal effect. Compared to the avian ancestor, human-like H5N1 virus has less NA incorporated in the virion, reduced levels of viral NA RNA replication and NA expression. We also demonstrate increased accumulation of NA at the plasma membrane, reduced virus release and enhanced cell-to-cell spread. Furthermore, NA mutations increased virus binding to human-type receptors. While not affecting high virulence of H5N1 in chickens, the studied NA mutations modulated virulence and replication of H5N1 AIV in mice and to a lesser extent in ferrets. Together, mutations in the NA of human H5N1 viruses play different roles in infection of mammals without affecting virulence or transmission in chickens. These results are important to understand the genetic determinants for replication of AIV in mammals and should assist in the prediction of AIV with zoonotic potential.

Influenza A virus circulation in backyard animals in the Pacific coast of Guatemala, 2013-2014

Due to their documented epidemiological relevance as hosts for influenza A viruses (IAV), humans, poultry and pigs in backyard production systems (BPS) within wetlands could be key to the emergence of novel IAV variants able to transmit between humans or animals. To better understand the circulation of IAV at the human-animal interface of BPS within wetlands, we studied IAV in backyard duck flocks and pig herds in the Pacific Coast of Guatemala. From April 2013 to October 2014, we estimated the monthly IAV per cent seropositive and viral positive flocks and herds in two resource-limited communities. We detected antibodies in sera against the IAV nucleoprotein through ELISA. We also detected IAV viral RNA in respiratory (ducks and pigs) and cloacal (ducks) swabs through rRT-PCR directed at the matrix gene. We attempted viral isolation in eggs or MDCK cells followed by sequencing from swabs positive for IAV. During our study period, IAV seropositivity in duck flocks was 38%, and viral positivity was 23% (n = 86 BPS sampled). IAV seropositivity in pig herds was 42%, and viral positivity was 20% (n = 90 BPS sampled). Both flocks and herds had detectable antibodies against IAV mostly year-round, and IAV was detected in several months. We isolated an H3N2 virus from one pig sampled at the end of 2013. Standard nucleotide BLAST searches indicate that the isolated virus was similar to seasonal viruses circulating in humans, suggesting human-to-pig transmission. Our data show concurrent circulation of IAV in multiple species of poultry and pigs that were commingled in rudimentary conditions in proximity to humans, but no significant risk factors could be identified.

Role of the Hemagglutinin Residue 227 in Immunogenicity of H5 and H7 Subtype Avian Influenza Vaccines in Chickens

Many H5 and H7 subtype avian influenza vaccines are poorly immunogenic in terms of inducing hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody titers. Residue 227 (H3 numbering) in the receptor binding site in the hemagglutinin (HA) is critical for the detectability of HI antibodies induced by H5 influenza vaccines. However, whether the effect of residue 227 on immunogenicity can be generalized in different subtypes is unclear. In this study, the impact of HA residue 227 on immunogenicity of H5N1, H5N6, and H7N9 avian influenza vaccines was evaluated in chickens. Polymorphism analysis revealed that S227 is overwhelmingly dominant in HA of the H5N1 and H7N9 subtypes, whereas this amino acid is present in a small proportion of H5N6 viruses. The H5N1, H5N6, and H7N9 vaccines harboring S227 in HA induced relatively low HI titers at week 2 postimmunization (pi), and antibody titers increased at week 3 pi. S227N substitution in these vaccines consistently enhanced HI titers significantly. Another H5N6 vaccine harboring Q227 in HA elicited a robust HI antibody response, and Q227S substitution led to a significant drop of HI titers. Cross-HI testing against the wild-type and mutant viruses revealed that the amino acid at position 227 was associated with the detectability of HI titers induced by H5 and H7 avian influenza vaccines. The results indicate an important role of residue 227 in HA in immunogenicity of H5 and H7 subtype avian influenza vaccines in chickens. Our findings also provided useful information for vaccine seed virus selection and genetic engineering for immunogenicity enhancement of avian influenza vaccines.

H5 Influenza Viruses in Egypt

For almost a decade, Egypt has been endemic for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) viruses. In addition to being catastrophic for poultry production, A(H5N1) has also caused 359 human infections in the country (∼40% of global cases), with 120 being fatal. From 2017, A(H5N1) viruses have been gradually replaced by HPAI A(H5N8) viruses seeded from Southeast Asia through Europe; no human cases have been reported since. This lack of human cases is not a consequence of fewer H5 infections in poultry. Despite governmental outbreak control, the number of avian influenza outbreaks has increased since 2006 partially fueled by noncompliance with preventive measures and suboptimal vaccination programs. Adherence to control measures is low because of social norms, especially among women and children-the main caretakers of household flocks in rural areas-and declining public awareness in the community. Egypt has thus become an epicenter for A(H5) virus evolution, with no clear resolution in sight.

Avian influenza H5N1: still a pandemic threat?

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses have become endemic in global poultry populations over the past 25 years and pose an ongoing public health threat. Although the incidence of human cases has declined, viruses from the H5N1 lineage can now be found in poultry throughout Asia, the Middle East and Africa, in addition to causing outbreaks in Europe and the Americas. The recent emergence and spread of reassortant H5Nx viruses, resulting in regional poultry outbreaks, has increased the risk for further evolution of these viruses and possible avian-to-human transmission. Ongoing surveillance and pandemic preparedness for H5N1 and other avian influenza viruses of public health concern are warranted.

Emergent Viral Infections of the CNS

Biological evolution of the microbiome continually drives the emergence of human viral pathogens, a subset of which attack the nervous system. The sheer number of pathogens that have appeared, along with their abundance in the environment, demand our attention. For the most part, our innate and adaptive immune systems have successfully protected us from infection; however, in the past 5 decades, through pathogen mutation and ecosystem disruption, a dozen viruses emerged to cause significant neurologic disease. Most of these pathogens have come from sylvatic reservoirs having made the energetically difficult, and fortuitously rare, jump into humans. But the human microbiome is also replete with agents already adapted to the host that need only minor mutations to create neurotropic/toxic agents. While each host/virus symbiosis is unique, this review examines virologic and immunologic principles that govern the pathogenesis of different viral CNS infections that were described in the past 50 years (Influenza, West Nile Virus, Zika, Rift Valley Fever Virus, Hendra/Nipah, Enterovirus-A71/-D68, Human parechovirus, HIV, and SARS-CoV). Knowledge of these pathogens provides us the opportunity to respond and mitigate infection while at the same time prepare for inevitable arrival of unknown agents.

Incidence and Seroprevalence of Avian Influenza in a Cohort of Backyard Poultry Growers, Egypt, August 2015-March 2019

Currently enzootic avian influenza H5N1, H9N2, and H5N8 viruses were introduced into poultry in Egypt in 2006, 2011, and 2016, respectively. Infections with H5N1 and H9N2 were reported among poultry-exposed humans. We followed 2,402 persons from households raising backyard poultry from 5 villages in Egypt during August 2015-March 2019. We collected demographic, exposure, and health condition data and annual serum samples from each participant and obtained swab samples from participants reporting influenza-like illness symptoms. We performed serologic and molecular analyses and detected 4 cases of infection with H5N1 and 3 cases with H9N2. We detected very low seroprevalence of H5N1 antibodies and no H5N8 antibodies among the cohort; up to 11% had H9 antibodies. None of the exposure, health status, or demographic variables were related to being seropositive. Our findings indicate that avian influenza remains a public health risk in Eqypt, but infections may go undetected because of their mild or asymptomatic nature.

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Infection in a Captive Giant Panda, Hong Kong

We report influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection in a captive giant panda in Hong Kong. The viral load peaked on day 1 and became undetectable on day 5, and an antibody response developed. Genome analysis showed 99.3%-99.9% nucleotide identity between the virus and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulating in Hong Kong.

Avian Influenza Human Infections at the Human-Animal Interface

Background

Avian influenza A viruses (AIVs) are among the most concerning emerging and re-emerging pathogens because of the potential risk for causing an influenza pandemic with catastrophic impact. The recent increase in domestic animals and poultry worldwide was followed by an increase of human AIV outbreaks reported.

Methods

We reviewed the epidemiology of human infections with AIV from the literature including reports from the World Health Organization, extracting information on virus subtype, time, location, age, sex, outcome, and exposure.

Results

We described the characteristics of more than 2500 laboratory-confirmed human infections with AIVs. Human infections with H5N1 and H7N9 were more frequently reported than other subtypes. Risk of death was highest among reported cases infected with H5N1, H5N6, H7N9, and H10N8 infections. Older people and males tended to have a lower risk of infection with most AIV subtypes, except for H7N9. Visiting live poultry markets was mostly reported by H7N9, H5N6, and H10N8 cases, while exposure to sick or dead bird was mostly reported by H5N1, H7N2, H7N3, H7N4, H7N7, and H10N7 cases.

Conclusions

Understanding the profile of human cases of different AIV subtypes would guide control strategies. Continued monitoring of human infections with AIVs is essential for pandemic preparedness.

Estimating Transmission Potential of H5N1 Viruses Among Humans in Egypt Using Phylogeny, Genetic Distance and Sampling Time Interval

In 2014 and 2015, the number of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza virus infections had increased dramatically in Egypt. This increase might be related to increase in the transmission potential of the virus among humans. To clarify the cause of the increase in H5N1 human cases, we investigate the transmissibility of H5N1 viruses among humans via estimating the basic reproduction number R₀ using nucleotide sequences and sampling dates of viruses. To this end, full-length hemagglutinin gene sequences of human and avian H5N1 influenza viruses isolated from 2006 to 2016 in Egypt were obtained from the NCBI influenza virus resource. Taking into account the phylogeny, genetic distance, sampling time difference among viruses, R₀ was estimated to be 0.05 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.13) assuming that human-to-human transmissions occurred within a city, 0.23(95% CI: 0.14, 0.35) assuming human-to-human transmissions among cities. Our results indicate that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 viruses in Egypt is limited, and the large increase in human cases is likely attributed to other factor than increase in human-to-human transmission potential.

Detecting influenza and emerging avian influenza virus by influenza and pneumonia surveillance systems in a large city in China, 2005 to 2016

Background

Detecting avian influenza virus has become an important public health strategy for controlling the emerging infectious disease.

Methods

The HIS (hospital information system) modified influenza surveillance system (ISS) and a newly built pneumonia surveillance system (PSS) were used to monitor the influenza viruses in Changsha City, China. The ISS was used to monitor outpatients in two sentinel hospitals and to detect mild influenza and avian influenza cases, and PSS was used to monitor inpatients in 49 hospitals and to detect severe and death influenza cases.

Results

From 2005 to 2016, there were 3,551,917 outpatients monitored by the ISS system, among whom 126,076 were influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, with the ILI proportion (ILI%) of 3.55%. After the HIS was used, the reported incident cases of ILI and ILI% were increased significantly. From March, 2009 to September, 2016, there were 5,491,560 inpatient cases monitored by the PSS system, among which 362,743 were pneumonia cases, with a proportion of 6.61%. Among pneumonia cases, about 10.55% (38,260/362,743) of cases were severe or death cases. The pneumonia incidence increased each year in the city. Among 15 avian influenza cases reported from January, 2005 to September, 2016, there were 26.7% (4/15) mild cases detected by the HIS-modified ISS system, while 60.0% (9/15) were severe or death cases detected by the PSS system. Two H5N1 severe cases were missed by the ISS system in January, 2009 when the PSS system was not available.

Conclusions

The HIS was able to improve the efficiency of the ISS for monitoring ILI and emerging avian influenza virus. However, the efficiency of the system needs to be verified in a wider area for a longer time span in China.

Improved capacity for influenza surveillance in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region: Progress in a challenging setting

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean has partnered with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to strengthen pandemic influenza preparedness and response in the Region since 2006. This partnership focuses on pandemic preparedness planning, establishing and enhancing influenza surveillance systems, improving laboratory capacity for detection of influenza viruses, estimating the influenza disease burden, and providing evidence to support policies for the introduction and increased use of seasonal influenza vaccines.

METHODS

Various published and unpublished data from public and WHO sources, programme indicators of the CDC cooperative agreement and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework were reviewed and analysed. Analyses and review of the programme indicators and published articles enabled us to generate information that was unavailable from only WHO sources.

RESULTS

Most (19/22) countries of the Region have established influenza surveillance system; 16 countries in the Region have designated National Influenza Centres. The Region has seen considerable improvement in geographic coverage of influenza surveillance and influenza detection. Virus sharing has improved and almost all of the participating laboratories have achieved a 100% efficiency score in the WHO external quality assessment programme. At least seven countries have estimated their influenza disease burden using surveillance data and at least 17 are now using seasonal influenza vaccines as a control strategy for influenza illness.

CONCLUSION

The Region has achieved substantial progress in surveillance and response to seasonal influenza, despite the adverse effects to the health systems of many countries due to acute and protracted emergencies and other significant challenges.

Respiratory disease due to mixed viral infections in poultry flocks in Egypt between 2017 and 2018: Upsurge of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 since 2018

For several years, poultry production in Egypt has been suffering from co-circulation of multiple respiratory viruses including highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 (clade 2.2.1.2) and low pathogenic H9N2 (clade G1-B). Incursion of HPAIV H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4b) to Egypt in November 2016 via wild birds followed by spread into commercial poultry flocks further complicated the situation. Current analyses focussed on 39 poultry farms suffering from respiratory manifestation and high mortality in six Egyptian governorates during 2017-2018. Real-time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) substantiated the co-presence of at least two respiratory virus species in more than 80% of the investigated flocks. The percentage of HPAIV H5N1-positive holdings was fairly stable in 2017 (12.8%) and 2018 (10.2%), while the percentage of HPAIV H5N8-positive holdings increased from 23% in 2017 to 66.6% during 2018. The proportion of H9N2-positive samples was constantly high (2017:100% and 2018:63%), and H9N2 co-circulated with HPAIV H5N8 in 22 out of 39 (56.8%) flocks. Analyses of 26 H5, 18 H9 and 4 N2 new sequences confirmed continuous genetic diversification. In silico analysis revealed numerous amino acid substitutions in the HA and NA proteins suggestive of increased adaptation to mammalian hosts and putative antigenic variation. For sensitive detection of H9N2 viruses by RT-qPCR, an update of primers and probe sequences was crucial. Reasons for the relative increase of HPAIV H5N8 infections versus H5N1 remained unclear, but lack of suitable vaccines against clade 2.3.4.4b cannot be excluded. A reconsideration of surveillance and control measures should include updating of diagnostic tools and vaccination strategies.

Unlocking pandemic potential: prevalence and spatial patterns of key substitutions in avian influenza H5N1 in Egyptian isolates

Background

Avian influenza H5N1 has a high human case fatality rate, but is not yet well-adapted to human hosts. Amino acid substitutions currently circulating in avian populations may enhance viral fitness in, and thus viral adaptation to, human hosts. Substitutions which could increase the risk of a human pandemic (through changes to host specificity, virulence, replication ability, transmissibility, or drug susceptibility) are termed key substitutions (KS). Egypt represents the epicenter of human H5N1 infections, with more confirmed cases than any other country. To date, however, there have not been any spatial analyses of KS in Egypt.

Methods

Using 925 viral samples of H5N1 from Egypt, we aligned protein sequences and scanned for KS. We geocoded isolates using dasymetric mapping, then carried out geospatial hot spot analyses to identify spatial clusters of high KS detection rates. KS prevalence and spatial clusters were evaluated for all detected KS, as well as when stratified by phenotypic consequence.

Results

A total of 39 distinct KS were detected in the wild, including 17 not previously reported in Egypt. KS were detected in 874 samples (94.5%). Detection rates varied by viral protein with most KS observed in the surface hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins, as well as the interior non-structural 1 (NS1) protein. The most frequently detected KS were associated with increased viral binding to mammalian cells and virulence. Samples with high overall detection rates of KS exhibited statistically significant spatial clustering in two governorates in the northwestern Nile delta, Alexandria and Beheira.

Conclusions

KS provide a possible mechanism by which avian influenza H5N1 could evolve into a pandemic candidate. With numerous KS circulating in Egypt, and non-random spatial clustering of KS detection rates, these findings suggest the need for increased surveillance in these areas.

Avian influenza A (H5N1) outbreaks in different poultry farm types in Egypt: the effect of vaccination, closing status and farm size

Background

The Avian Influenza A (H5N1) virus is endemic in poultry in Egypt. The winter of 2014/2015 was particularly worrying as new clusters of HPAI A (H5N1) virus emerged, leading to an important number of AI A (H5N1) outbreaks in poultry farms and sporadic human cases. To date, few studies have investigated the distribution of HPAI A (H5N1) outbreaks in Egypt in relation to protective / risk factors at the farm level, a gap we intend to fill. The aim of the study was to analyse passive surveillance data that were based on observation of sudden and high mortality of poultry or drop in duck or chicken egg production, as a basis to better understand and discuss the risk of HPAI A (H5N1) presence at the farm level in large parts of the Nile Delta.

Results

The probability of HPAI A (H5N1) presence was associated with several characteristics of the farms. Vaccination status, absence of windows/openings in the farm and the number of birds per cycle of production were found to be protective factors, whereas the presence of a duck farm with significant mortality or drop in egg production in the village was found to be a risk factor.

Conclusions

Results demonstrate the key role of several prevention and biosecurity measures to reduce HPAI A (H5N1) virus circulation, which could promote better poultry farm biosecurity in Egypt.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12917-018-1519-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An overview of the epidemiology and emergence of influenza A infection in humans over time

In recent years multiple novel influenza A strains have emerged in humans. We reviewed publically available data to summarise epidemiological characteristics of distinct avian influenza viruses known to cause human infection and describe changes over time. Most recently identified zoonotic strains have emerged in China (H7N9, H5N6, H10N8) – these strains have occurred mostly in association with visiting a live bird market. Most zoonotic AIVs and swine influenza variants typically cause mild infections in humans however severe illness and fatalities are associated with zoonotic H5N6, H10N8, H7N9 and H5N1 serotypes, and the H1N1 1918 Spanish Influenza. The changing landscape of avian influenza globally indicates a need to reassess the risk of a pandemic influenza outbreak of zoonotic origin.

Enhanced virulence of clade 2.3.2.1 highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1 viruses in ferrets

Sporadic avian to human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) viruses necessitates the analysis of currently circulating and evolving clades to assess their potential risk. Following the spread and sustained circulation of clade 2 viruses across multiple continents, numerous subclades and genotypes have been described. To better understand the pathogenesis associated with the continued diversification of clade 2A(H5N1) influenza viruses, we investigated the relative virulence of eleven human and poultry isolates collected from 2006 to 2013 by determining their ability to cause disease in the ferret model. Numerous clade 2 viruses, including a clade 2.2 avian isolate, a 2.2.2.1 human isolate, and two 2.2.1 human isolates, were found to be of low virulence in the ferret model, though lethality was detected following infection with one 2.2.1 human isolate. In contrast, three of six clade 2.3.2.1 avian isolates tested led to severe disease and death among infected ferrets. Clade 2.3.2.1b and 2.3.2.1c isolates, but not 2.3.2.1a isolates, were associated with ferret lethality. All A(H5N1) viruses replicated efficiently in the respiratory tract of ferrets regardless of their virulence and lethality. However, lethal isolates were characterized by systemic viral dissemination, including detection in the brain and enhanced histopathology in lung tissues. The finding of disparate virulence phenotypes between clade 2A(H5N1) viruses, notably differences between subclades of 2.3.2.1 viruses, suggests there are distinct molecular determinants present within the established subclades, the identification of which will assist in molecular-based surveillance and public health efforts against A(H5N1) viruses.

Biological characterization of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses that infected humans in Egypt in 2014-2015

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 influenza viruses emerged as a human pathogen in 1997 with expected potential to undergo sustained human-to-human transmission and pandemic viral spread. HPAI H5N1 is endemic in Egyptian poultry and has caused sporadic human infection. The first outbreak in early 2006 was caused by clade 2.2 viruses that rapidly evolved genetically and antigenically. A sharp increase in the number of human cases was reported in Egypt in the 2014/2015 season. In this study, we analyzed and characterized three isolates of HPAI H5N1 viruses isolated from infected humans in Egypt in 2014/2015. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the nucleotide sequences of eight segments of the three isolates were clustered with those of members of clade 2.2.1.2. We also found that the human isolates from 2014/2015 had a slight, non-significant difference in their affinity for human-like sialic acid receptors. In contrast, they showed significant differences in their replication kinetics in MDCK, MDCK-SIAT, and A549 cells as well as in embryonated chicken eggs. An antiviral bioassay study revealed that all of the isolates were susceptible to amantadine. Therefore, further investigation and monitoring is required to correlate the genetic and/or antigenic changes of the emerging HPAI H5N1 viruses with possible alteration in their characteristics and their potential to become a further threat to public health.

Global epidemiology of avian influenza A H5N1 virus infection in humans, 1997-2015: a systematic review of individual case data

Avian influenza viruses A(H5N1) have caused a large number of typically severe human infections since the first human case was reported in 1997. However, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological analysis of global human cases of H5N1 from 1997-2015. Moreover, few studies have examined in detail the changing epidemiology of human H5N1 cases in Egypt, especially given the most recent outbreaks since November 2014 which have the highest number of cases ever reported globally over a similar period. Data on individual cases were collated from different sources using a systematic approach to describe the global epidemiology of 907 human H5N1 cases between May 1997 and April 2015. The number of affected countries rose between 2003 and 2008, with expansion from East and Southeast Asia, then to West Asia and Africa. Most cases (67.2%) occurred from December to March, and the overall case fatality risk was 53.5% (483/903) which varied across geographical regions. Although the incidence in Egypt has increased dramatically since November 2014, compared to the cases beforehand there were no significant differences in the fatality risk , history of exposure to poultry, history of human case contact, and time from onset to hospitalization in the recent cases.

Chronological, geographical, and seasonal trends of human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in Vietnam, 2003-2014: a spatial analysis

Background

Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection continue to occur in Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to identify when and where human H5N1 cases have occurred in Vietnam and how the situation has changed from the beginning of the H5N1 outbreaks in 2003 through 2014, to assist with implementing methods of targeted disease management.

Methods

We assessed the disease clustering and seasonal variation of human H5N1 cases in Vietnam to evaluate the geographical and monthly timing trends. The clustering of H5N1 cases and associated mortality were examined over three time periods: the outbreak period (2003–2005), the post-outbreak (2006–2009), and the recent period (2010–2014) using the flexibly shaped space-time scan statistic. The most likely cases to co-cluster and the elevated risks for incidence and mortality were assessed via calculation of the relative risk (RR). The H5N1 case seasonal variation was analysed as the cyclic trend in incidence data using Roger’s statistical test.

Results

Between 2003 and 2005, H5N1 cases (RR: 2.15, p = 0.001) and mortality (RR: 2.49, p = 0.021) were significantly clustered in northern Vietnam. After 2010, H5N1 cases tended to occur on the border with Cambodia in the south, while H5N1 mortality clustered significantly in the Mekong delta area (RR: 6.62, p = 0.002). A significant seasonal variation was observed (p < 0.001), with a higher incidence of morbidity in December through April.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that clinical preparedness for H5N1 in Vietnam needs to be strengthened in southern Vietnam in December–April.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1391-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.