Seroprevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 IgG in Juba, South Sudan, 20201

Disparities in SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Race, Ethnicity, Language, and Social Vulnerability: Evidence from a Citywide Seroprevalence Study in Massachusetts, USA

OBJECTIVES

Uncovering and addressing disparities in infectious disease outbreaks require a rapid, methodical understanding of local epidemiology. We conducted a seroprevalence study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Holyoke, Massachusetts, a majority Hispanic city with high levels of socio-economic disadvantage to estimate seroprevalence and identify disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

We invited 2000 randomly sampled households between 11/5/2020 and 12/31/2020 to complete questionnaires and provide dried blood spots for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. We calculated seroprevalence based on the presence of IgG antibodies using a weighted Bayesian procedure that incorporated uncertainty in antibody test sensitivity and specificity and accounted for household clustering.

RESULTS

Two hundred eighty households including 472 individuals were enrolled. Three hundred twenty-eight individuals underwent antibody testing. Citywide seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 13.1% (95% CI 6.9-22.3) compared to 9.8% of the population infected based on publicly reported cases. Seroprevalence was 16.1% (95% CI 6.2-31.8) among Hispanic individuals compared to 9.4% (95% CI 4.6-16.4) among non-Hispanic white individuals. Seroprevalence was higher among Spanish-speaking households (21.9%; 95% CI 8.3-43.9) compared to English-speaking households (10.2%; 95% CI 5.2-18.0) and among individuals in high social vulnerability index (SVI) areas based on the CDC SVI (14.4%; 95% CI 7.1-25.5) compared to low SVI areas (8.2%; 95% CI 3.1-16.9).

CONCLUSIONS

The SARS-CoV-2 IgG seroprevalence in a city with high levels of social vulnerability was 13.1% during the pre-vaccination period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hispanic individuals and individuals in communities characterized by high SVI were at the highest risk of infection. Public health interventions should be designed to ensure that individuals in high social vulnerability communities have access to the tools to combat COVID-19.

Global prevalence of COVID-19-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is potentially a fatal form of respiratory failure among COVID-19 patients. Globally, there are inconsistent findings regarding ARDS among COVID-19 patients. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of COVID-19-induced ARDS among COVID-19 patients worldwide.

METHODS

To retrieve relevant studies, the authors searched Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google, and Google Scholar using a combination of search terms. The search was conducted for articles published from December 2019 to September 2022. Articles were searched and screened by title (ti), abstract (ab), and full-text (ft) by two reviewers independently. The quality of each included article was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Assessment Scale. Data were entered into Microsoft Word and exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. Heterogeneity was detected using the Cochrane Q statistics and I-square (I2). Then the sources of variations were identified by subgroup and meta-regression analysis. A random effect meta-analysis model was used. The publication bias was detected using the graphic asymmetry test of the funnel plot and/or Egger's test (p value < 0.05). To treat the potential publication bias, trim and fill analysis were computed. The protocol has been registered in an international database, the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) with reference number: CRD42023438277.

RESULTS

A total of 794 studies worldwide were screened for their eligibility. Of these 11 studies with 2845 participants were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The overall pooled prevalence of COVID-19-induced ARDS in the world was found to be 32.2% (95%CI = 27.70-41.73%), I2 = 97.3%, and p value < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The pooled prevalence of COVID-19-induced ARDS was found to be high. The virus remains a global burden because its genetic causes are constantly changing or it mutated throughout the pandemic to emerge a new strain of infection. Therefore, interventions such as massive vaccination, early case detection, screening, isolation, and treatment of the cases need to be implemented to tackle its severity.

Transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 in a humanitarian setting: First few X investigation of cases and contacts in Juba, South Sudan, 2020

BACKGROUND

The first few 'X' (FFX) studies provide evidence to guide public health decision-making and resource allocation. The adapted WHO Unity FFX protocol for COVID-19 was implemented to gain an understanding of the clinical, epidemiological, virological and household transmission dynamics of the first cases of COVID-19 infection detected in Juba, South Sudan.

METHODS

Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were identified through the national surveillance system, and an initial visit was conducted with eligible cases to identify all close contacts. Consenting cases and close contacts were enrolled between June 2020 and December 2020. Demographic, clinical information and biological samples were taken at enrollment and 14-21 days post-enrollment for all participants.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine primary cases and 82 contacts were included in the analyses. Most primary cases (n = 23/29, 79.3%) and contacts (n = 61/82, 74.4%) were male. Many primary cases (n = 18/29, 62.1%) and contacts (n = 51/82, 62.2%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline. The secondary attack rate among susceptible contacts was 12.9% (4/31; 95% CI: 4.9%-29.7%). All secondary cases and most (72%) primary cases were asymptomatic. Reported symptoms included coughing (n = 6/29, 20.7%), fever or history of fever (n = 4/29, 13.8%), headache (n = 3/29, 10.3%) and shortness of breath (n = 3/29, 10.3%). Of 38 cases, two were hospitalised (5.3%) and one died (2.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings were used to develop the South Sudanese Ministry of Health surveillance and contract tracing protocols, informing local COVID-19 case definitions, follow-up protocols and data management systems. This investigation demonstrates that rapid FFX implementation is critical in understanding the emerging disease and informing response priorities.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Republic of Congo, February 2022

In resource-limited countries, the lack of widespread screening masks the true situation of COVID-19. We conducted this study to assess SARS-CoV-2 spread by detection of specific antibodies and to determine associated factors. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted. Subjects were tested for the presence of two antibodies (IgM and IgG) specific to SARS-CoV-2. Data collection was done using a smartphone with the KoboCollect application. Prevalence of antibodies was estimated with 95% confidence intervals. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with positive serological test. A total of 9,094 persons were tested in 4,340 households. The mean age was 30.18 ± 18.65 years, 46.5% male. The overall seroprevalence (prevalence, 95% CI) of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was (48.2% [47.2%-49.2%]). Being vaccinated, having been in contact with a COVID-19 patient, being older than 50 years, living in a union, having secondary education and having tertiary education were factors independently associated with the likelihood of having anti-sars-CoV-2. We estimate in February 2022 that 48% persons had antibodies against the COVID-19 virus, more among those vaccinated. Vaccination intensification in low prevalence departments will reduce the risk of new outbreaks.

Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa

Country reported case counts suggested a slow spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Owing to inadequate public awareness, unestablished monitoring practices, limited testing and stigmas, there might exist extensive under-ascertainment of the true number of cases, especially at the beginning of the novel epidemic. We developed a compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early epidemics in 54 African countries. Data on the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to fit the model for the time period with no or little massive national interventions yet in each country. We estimated that the mean basic reproduction number is 2.02 (s.d. 0.7), with a range between 1.12 (Zambia) and 3.64 (Nigeria). The mean overall report rate was estimated to be 5.37% (s.d. 5.71%), with the highest 30.41% in Libya and the lowest 0.02% in São Tomé and Príncipe. An average of 5.46% (s.d. 6.4%) of all infected cases were severe cases and 66.74% (s.d. 17.28%) were asymptomatic ones. The estimated low reporting rates in Africa suggested a clear need for improved reporting and surveillance systems in these countries.

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

High seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the capital of Chad

Background. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Chad has had 7,417 confirmed cases and 193 deaths, one of the lowest in Africa. Objective. This study assessed SARS-CoV-2 immunity in N’Djamena. Methods. In August-October 2021, eleven N’Djamena hospitals collected outpatient data and samples. IgG antibodies against SARSCoV- 2 nucleocapsid protein were identified using ELISA. “Bambino Gesù” Laboratory, Rome, Italy, performed external quality control with chemiluminescence assay. Results. 25-34-year-old (35.2%) made up the largest age group at 31.9 12.6 years. 56.4% were women, 1.3 women/men. The 7th district had 22.5% and the 1st 22.3%. Housewives and students dominated. Overall seroprevalence was 69.5% (95% CI: 67.7-71.3), females 68.2% (65.8-70.5) and males 71.2% (68.6-73.8). >44-year-old had 73.9% seroprevalence. Under-15s were 57.4% positive. Housewives (70.9%), civil servants (71.5%), and health workers (9.7%) had the highest antibody positivity. N’Djamena’s 9th district had 73.1% optimism and the 3rd district had 52.5%. Seroprevalences were highest at Good Samaritan Hospital (75.4%) and National General Referral Hospital (74.7%). Conclusion. Our findings indicate a high circulation of SARSCoV- 2 in N’Djamena, despite low mortality and morbidity after the first two COVID-19 pandemic waves. This high seroprevalence must be considered in Chad’s vaccine policy.

Plasmodium infection is associated with cross-reactive antibodies to carbohydrate epitopes on the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein

Sero-surveillance can monitor and project disease burden and risk. However, SARS-CoV-2 antibody test results can produce false positive results, limiting their efficacy as a sero-surveillance tool. False positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody results are associated with malaria exposure, and understanding this association is essential to interpret sero-surveillance results from malaria-endemic countries. Here, pre-pandemic samples from eight malaria endemic and non-endemic countries and four continents were tested by ELISA to measure SARS-CoV-2 Spike S1 subunit reactivity. Individuals with acute malaria infection generated substantial SARS-CoV-2 reactivity. Cross-reactivity was not associated with reactivity to other human coronaviruses or other SARS-CoV-2 proteins, as measured by peptide and protein arrays. ELISAs with deglycosylated and desialated Spike S1 subunits revealed that cross-reactive antibodies target sialic acid on N-linked glycans of the Spike protein. The functional activity of cross-reactive antibodies measured by neutralization assays showed that cross-reactive antibodies did not neutralize SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. Since routine use of glycosylated or sialated assays could result in false positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody results in malaria endemic regions, which could overestimate exposure and population-level immunity, we explored methods to increase specificity by reducing cross-reactivity. Overestimating population-level exposure to SARS-CoV-2 could lead to underestimates of risk of continued COVID-19 transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and co-infection with malaria during the first wave of the pandemic (the Burkina Faso case)

Africa accounts for 1.5% of the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and 2.7% of deaths, but this low incidence has been partly attributed to the limited testing capacity in most countries. In addition, the population in many African countries is at high risk of infection with endemic infectious diseases such as malaria. Our aim is to determine the prevalence and circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants, and the frequency of co-infection with the malaria parasite. We conducted serological tests and microscopy examinations on 998 volunteers of different ages and sexes in a random and stratified population sample in Burkina-Faso. In addition, nasopharyngeal samples were taken for RT-qPCR of SARS-CoV-2 and for whole viral genome sequencing. Our results show a 3.2 and a 2.5% of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and PCR positivity; and 22% of malaria incidence, over the sampling period, with marked differences linked to age. Importantly, we found 8 cases of confirmed co-infection and 11 cases of suspected co-infection mostly in children and teenagers. Finally, we report the genome sequences of 13 SARS-CoV-2 isolates circulating in Burkina Faso at the time of analysis, assigned to lineages A.19, A.21, B.1.1.404, B.1.1.118, B.1 and grouped into clades; 19B, 20A, and 20B. This is the first population-based study about SARS-CoV-2 and malaria in Burkina Faso during the first wave of the pandemic, providing a relevant estimation of the real prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and variants circulating in this Western African country. Besides, it highlights the non-negligible frequency of co-infection with malaria in African communities.

Comparison of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in 10 Countries in Southern Africa, 2020-2021

We used publicly available data to describe epidemiology, genomic surveillance, and public health and social measures from the first 3 COVID-19 pandemic waves in southern Africa during April 6, 2020-September 19, 2021. South Africa detected regional waves on average 7.2 weeks before other countries. Average testing volume 244 tests/million/day) increased across waves and was highest in upper-middle-income countries. Across the 3 waves, average reported regional incidence increased (17.4, 51.9, 123.3 cases/1 million population/day), as did positivity of diagnostic tests (8.8%, 12.2%, 14.5%); mortality (0.3, 1.5, 2.7 deaths/1 million populaiton/day); and case-fatality ratios (1.9%, 2.1%, 2.5%). Beta variant (B.1.351) drove the second wave and Delta (B.1.617.2) the third. Stringent implementation of safety measures declined across waves. As of September 19, 2021, completed vaccination coverage remained low (8.1% of total population). Our findings highlight opportunities for strengthening surveillance, health systems, and access to realistically available therapeutics, and scaling up risk-based vaccination.

Seroincidence of Enteric Fever, Juba, South Sudan

We applied a new serosurveillance tool to estimate typhoidal Salmonella burden using samples collected during 2020 from a population in Juba, South Sudan. By using dried blood spot testing, we found an enteric fever seroincidence rate of 30/100 person-years and cumulative incidence of 74% over a 4-year period.

High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Burkina-Faso, Ghana and Madagascar in 2021: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The current COVID-19 pandemic affects the entire world population and has serious health, economic and social consequences. Assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 through population-based serological surveys is essential to monitor the progression of the epidemic, especially in African countries where the extent of SARS-CoV-2 spread remains unclear.

METHODS

A two-stage cluster population-based SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence survey was conducted in Bobo-Dioulasso and in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Fianarantsoa, Madagascar and Kumasi, Ghana between February and June 2021. IgG seropositivity was determined in 2,163 households with a specificity improved SARS-CoV-2 Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay. Population seroprevalence was evaluated using a Bayesian logistic regression model that accounted for test performance and age, sex and neighbourhood of the participants.

RESULTS

Seroprevalence adjusted for test performance and population characteristics were 55.7% [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49·0; 62·8] in Bobo-Dioulasso, 37·4% [95% CrI 31·3; 43·5] in Ouagadougou, 41·5% [95% CrI 36·5; 47·2] in Fianarantsoa, and 41·2% [95% CrI 34·5; 49·0] in Kumasi. Within the study population, less than 6% of participants performed a test for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection since the onset of the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

High exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was found in the surveyed regions albeit below the herd immunity threshold and with a low rate of previous testing for acute infections. Despite the high seroprevalence in our study population, the duration of protection from naturally acquired immunity remains unclear and new virus variants continue to emerge. This highlights the importance of vaccine deployment and continued preventive measures to protect the population at risk.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in three Kenyan health and demographic surveillance sites, December 2020-May 2021

BACKGROUND

Most of the studies that have informed the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya have relied on samples that are not representative of the general population. We conducted population-based serosurveys at three Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) to determine the cumulative incidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We selected random age-stratified population-based samples at HDSSs in Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, in Kenya. Blood samples were collected from participants between 01 Dec 2020 and 27 May 2021. No participant had received a COVID-19 vaccine. We tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using ELISA. Locally-validated assay sensitivity and specificity were 93% (95% CI 88-96%) and 99% (95% CI 98-99.5%), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates using classical methods and Bayesian modelling to account for the sampling scheme and assay performance.

RESULTS

We recruited 2,559 individuals from the three HDSS sites, median age (IQR) 27 (10-78) years and 52% were female. Seroprevalence at all three sites rose steadily during the study period. In Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, seroprevalences (95% CI) at the beginning of the study were 36.0% (28.2-44.4%), 32.4% (23.1-42.4%), and 14.5% (9.1-21%), and respectively; at the end they were 42.0% (34.7-50.0%), 50.2% (39.7-61.1%), and 24.7% (17.5-32.6%), respectively. Seroprevalence was substantially lower among children (<16 years) than among adults at all three sites (p≤0.001).

CONCLUSION

By May 2021 in three broadly representative populations of unvaccinated individuals in Kenya, seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 25-50%. There was wide variation in cumulative incidence by location and age.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome among patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to treatment center of Wollega University Referral Hospital, Western Ethiopia

Background

Acute respiratory distress syndrome is a life-threatening condition that has a significant effect on the occurrence of morbidity and mortality among patients with severe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To the best of researchers’ knowledge, there is no Study on ARDS of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the prevalence of ARDS and associated factors among severe COVID-19 patients at Wollega University Referral Hospital.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted from September 20, 2020, to June 10, 2021. Real-Time Reverse transcription-polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR) test was used to test Patients for COVID-19. Epi-data version 3.2 was used for data entry, and the final data analysis was through STATA version 14. After checking the assumption P-value<0.25 in the bivariable analysis was used to select a candidate variable for multi-variable analysis, and a p-value of <0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

Results

In this study, the prevalence of ARDS was 32%. Almost all the patients had the clinical feature of cough (93.7%), followed by shortness of breath (79.9%), fever (77.7%), and headache (67%). Age older than 65 years (AOR = 3.35, 95%CI = 1.31, 8.55), male gender (AOR = 5.63, 95%CI = 2.15, 14.77), and low oxygen saturation level (AOR = 4.60, 95%CI = 1.15, 18.35) were the independent predictors of ARDS among severe COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion

The prevalence of ARDS among patients with severe COVID-19 was high in the study area. Therefore, elders and patients with critical conditions (low oxygen saturation) better to get special attention during COVID-19 case management to enhance good care and monitoring of the patients.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

A reliable estimate of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies is increasingly important to track the spread of infection and define the true burden of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. A systematic review and a meta-analysis were conducted with the objective of estimating the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa. A systematic search of the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar electronic databases was conducted. Thirty-five eligible studies were included. Using meta-analysis of proportions, the overall seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was calculated as 16% (95% CI 13.1-18.9%). Based on antibody isotypes, 14.6% (95% CI 12.2-17.1%) and 11.5% (95% CI 8.7-14.2%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM, respectively, while 6.6% (95% CI 4.9-8.3%) were tested positive for both IgM and IgG. Healthcare workers (16.3%) had higher seroprevalence than the general population (11.7%), blood donors (7.5%) and pregnant women (5.7%). The finding of this systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) may not accurately reflect the true seroprevalence status of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa, hence, further seroprevalence studies across Africa are required to assess and monitor the growing COVID-19 burden.

Epidemiological characterization of COVID-19 in displaced populations of South Sudan

Introduction

South Sudan is facing a protracted humanitarian crisis with increasing population vulnerability. The study aimed to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in displaced populations in South Sudan.

Methods

the study involved the internally displaced populations (IDP) in Bentiu IDP camp, South Sudan. This was a descriptive cross-sectional study involving individuals that met the COVID-19 probable and confirmed case definitions from May 2020 to November 2021. Case data were managed using Microsoft Excel databases.

Results

the initial COVID-19 case in Bentiu IDP camp was reported on 2 May 2020. The overall cumulative attack rate (cases per million) was 3,230 for Bentiu IDP and 1,038 at the national level. The COVID-19 Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) among the IDPs was 19.08% among confirmed and 1.06% at the national level. There was one wave of COVID-19 transmission in the IDPs that coincided with the second COVID-19 wave in South Sudan for the period May 2020 to November 2021. Adult males aged 20-49 years were the most affected and constituted 47.1% of COVID-19 cases. Most severe cases were reported among adults 60-69 years (53%) and ≥ 70 years (80%). The risk of COVID-19 death (deaths per 10,000) increased with age and was highest in patients aged ≥ 60 years at 64.1. The commonest underlying illnesses among COVID-19 deaths was HIV-related illness, heart disease, and tuberculosis.

Conclusion

COVID-19 constitutes a significant impact on internally displaced populations of South Sudan. The COVID-19 response in displaced populations and the high-risk groups therein should be optimized.

The COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent

In December 2019, a new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and associated disease, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was identified in China. This virus spread quickly and in March, 2020, it was declared a pandemic. Scientists predicted the worst scenario to occur in Africa since it was the least developed of the continents in terms of human development index, lagged behind others in achievement of the United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs), has inadequate resources for provision of social services, and has many fragile states. In addition, there were relatively few research reporting findings on COVID-19 in Africa. On the contrary, the more developed countries reported higher disease incidences and mortality rates. However, for Africa, the earlier predictions and modelling into COVID-19 incidence and mortality did not fit into the reality. Therefore, the main objective of this forum is to bring together infectious diseases and public health experts to give an overview of COVID-19 in Africa and share their thoughts and opinions on why Africa behaved the way it did. Furthermore, the experts highlight what needs to be done to support Africa to consolidate the status quo and overcome the negative effects of COVID-19 so as to accelerate attainment of the SDGs.

SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Prevalence and Population-Based Death Rates, Greater Omdurman, Sudan

In a cross-sectional survey in Omdurman, Sudan, during March–April 2021, we estimated that 54.6% of the population had detectable severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibodies. Overall population death rates among those >50 years of age increased 74% over the first coronavirus disease pandemic year.

COVID-19 in Tunisia (North Africa): Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the General Population of the Capital City Tunis

Seroprevalence studies are essential to get an accurate estimate of the actual SARS-CoV-2 diffusion within populations. We report on the findings of the first serosurvey conducted in Tunis prior to the implementation of mass vaccination and analyzed factors associated with seropositivity. A household cross sectional survey was conducted (March–April 2021) in Tunis, spanning the end of the second wave and the beginning of the third wave of COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to the spike (S-RBD) or the nucleocapsid (N) proteins were detected by in-house ELISA tests. The survey included 1676 individuals from 431 households. The mean age and sex ratio were 43.3 ± 20.9 years and 0.6, respectively. The weighted seroprevalence of anti-N and/or anti-S-RBD IgG antibodies was equal to 38.0% (34.6–41.5). In multivariate analysis, age under 10, no tobacco use, previous diagnosis of COVID-19, a history of COVID-19 related symptoms and contact with a COVID-19 case within the household, were independently associated with higher SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. More than one third of people living in Tunis obtained antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Further studies are needed to monitor changes in these figures as Tunisian population is confronted to the subsequent epidemic waves and to guide the vaccine strategy.

Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination efforts and dose allocation within Madagascar

Background

While mass COVID-19 vaccination programs are underway in high-income countries, limited availability of doses has resulted in few vaccines administered in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) is a WHO-led initiative to promote vaccine access equity to LMICs and is providing many of the doses available in these settings. However, initial doses are limited and countries, such as Madagascar, need to develop prioritization schemes to maximize the benefits of vaccination with very limited supplies. There is some consensus that dose deployment should initially target health care workers, and those who are more vulnerable including older individuals. However, questions of geographic deployment remain, in particular associated with limits around vaccine access and delivery capacity in underserved communities, for example in rural areas that may also include substantial proportions of the population.

Methods

To address these questions, we developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and simulated various vaccination allocation strategies for Madagascar. Simulated strategies were based on a number of possible geographical prioritization schemes, testing sensitivity to initial susceptibility in the population, and evaluating the potential of tests for previous infection.

Results

Using cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 as the main outcome of interest, our results indicate that distributing the number of vaccine doses according to the number of elderly living in the region or according to the population size results in a greater reduction of mortality compared to distributing doses based on the reported number of cases and deaths. The benefits of vaccination strategies are diminished if the burden (and thus accumulated immunity) has been greatest in the most populous regions, but the overall strategy ranking remains comparable. If rapid tests for prior immunity may be swiftly and effectively delivered, there is potential for considerable gain in mortality averted, but considering delivery limitations modulates this.

Conclusion

At a subnational scale, our results support the strategy adopted by the COVAX initiative at a global scale.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13150-8.

Performance Evaluation of Lateral Flow Assays for Coronavirus Disease-19 Serology

The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), has undoubtedly resulted in significant morbidities, mortalities, and economic disruptions across the globe. Affordable and scalable tools to monitor the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the longevity of induced antibodies will be paramount to monitor and control the pandemic as multiple waves continue to rage in many countries. Serologic assays detect humoral responses to the virus, to determine seroprevalence in target populations, or induction of antibodies at the individual level following either natural infection or vaccination. With multiple vaccines rolling out globally, serologic assays to detect anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies will be important tools to monitor the development of herd immunity. To address this need, serologic lateral flow assays (LFAs), which can be easily implemented for both population surveillance and home use, will be vital to monitor the evolution of the pandemic and inform containment measures. Such assays are particularly important for monitoring the transmission dynamics and durability of immunity generated by natural infections and vaccination, particularly in resource-limited settings. In this review, we discuss considerations for evaluating the accuracy of these LFAs, their suitability for different use cases, and implementation opportunities.

Clinical progression and outcomes of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in humanitarian settings: A prospective cohort study in South Sudan and Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

Little information is available on COVID-19 in Africa and virtually none is from humanitarian and more resource-constrained settings. This study characterizes hospitalized patients in the African humanitarian contexts of Juba, South Sudan and North and South Kivu in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. This observational cohort was conducted between December 2020 and June 2021. Patients presenting for care at five facilities or referred from home-based care by mobile medical teams were eligible for enrollment and followed until death or recovery. Disease progression was characterized for hospitalized patients using survival analysis and mixed effects regression model to estimate survival odds for patient characteristics and treatments received. 144 COVID-19 cases enrolled as hospitalized patients were followed to recovery/death. The observed mortality proportion among hospitalized patients was 16.7% (CI: 11.2-23.3%); mortality was three times higher in South Sudan, where patients presented later after symptom onset and in worse conditions. Age and diabetes history were the only patient characteristics associated with decreased survival; clinical status indicators associated with decreased survival included fever, low oxygen level, elevated respiratory and pulse rates. The only therapy associated with survival was non-invasive oxygen; invasive oxygen therapies and other specialized treatments were rarely received. Improving availability of oxygen monitoring and proven COVID-19 therapies in humanitarian and resource-poor settings is critical for health equity. Customizing training to reflect availability of specific medications, therapies and operational constraints is particularly important given the range of challenges faced by providers in these settings.

SARS-CoV-2 Variants, South Sudan, January-March 2021

As the coronavirus pandemic continues, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequence data are required to inform vaccine efforts. We provide SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from South Sudan and document the dominance of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.525 (Eta variant) during the country's second wave of infection.

Cross-Reactive Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV in Pre-COVID-19 Blood Samples from Sierra Leoneans

Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have experienced lower COVID-19 caseloads and fewer deaths than countries in other regions worldwide. Under-reporting of cases and a younger population could partly account for these differences, but pre-existing immunity to coronaviruses is another potential factor. Blood samples from Sierra Leonean Lassa fever and Ebola survivors and their contacts collected before the first reported COVID-19 cases were assessed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for the presence of antibodies binding to proteins of coronaviruses that infect humans. Results were compared to COVID-19 subjects and healthy blood donors from the United States. Prior to the pandemic, Sierra Leoneans had more frequent exposures than Americans to coronaviruses with epitopes that cross-react with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), SARS-CoV, and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The percentage of Sierra Leoneans with antibodies reacting to seasonal coronaviruses was also higher than for American blood donors. Serological responses to coronaviruses by Sierra Leoneans did not differ by age or sex. Approximately a quarter of Sierra Leonian pre-pandemic blood samples had neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus, while about a third neutralized MERS-CoV pseudovirus. Prior exposures to coronaviruses that induce cross-protective immunity may contribute to reduced COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sierra Leone.

Why are there so few (or so many) circulating coronaviruses?

Despite vast diversity in non-human hosts and conspicuous recent spillover events, only a small number of coronaviruses have been observed to persist in human populations. This puzzling mismatch suggests substantial barriers to establishment. We detail hypotheses that might contribute to explain the low numbers of endemic coronaviruses, despite their considerable evolutionary and emergence potential. We assess possible explanations ranging from issues of ascertainment, historically lower opportunities for spillover, aspects of human demographic changes, and features of pathogen biology and pre-existing adaptive immunity to related viruses. We describe how successful emergent viral species must triangulate transmission, virulence, and host immunity to maintain circulation. Characterizing the factors that might shape the limits of viral persistence can delineate promising research directions to better understand the combinations of pathogens and contexts that are most likely to lead to spillover.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody among individuals aged above 15 years and residing in congregate settings in Dire Dawa city administration, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Determining the extent of seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody has the potential to guide prevention and control efforts. We aimed to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody among individuals aged above15 years and residing in the congregate settings of Dire Dawa city administration, Ethiopia.

METHOD

We analyzed COVID-19 seroprevalence data on 684 individuals from a community based cross-sectional survey conducted among individuals aged above 15 years and residing in congregate settings in Dire Dawa from June 15 to July 30, 2020. Data were collected using interview and blood sample collection. Participants were asked about demographic characteristics, COVID-19 symptoms, and their practice of preventive measures. Seroprevalence was determined using SARS-CoV-2 IgG test. Bivariate and multivariate multilevel mixed effects logistic regression model was fitted and statistical significance was set at p value < 0.05.

RESULT

The estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 3.2% (95 % CI 2.0-4.8) in the study region with no differences by age and sex but considerable differences were observed by self-reported practice of COVID-19 preventive measures. The cluster effect is not significant (P = 0.396) which has suggested no evidence of heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among the clusters. The odds of SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence were higher for individuals who were employed and work by moving from home to work area (AOR; 9.73 95% CI 2.51, 37.68), reported of not wearing facemasks when leaving home (AOR; 6.4 95% CI 2.30, 17.66) and did not practice physical distancing measures (AOR; 10 95% CI 3.01, 33.20) compared to their counterparts, respectively. Our estimated seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among participants who reported not to have practiced social distancing measures was 12.8 (95% CI, 7.0, 19) and 1.5 (95% CI, 0.5, 2.5) among those who reported of practicing them. More than 80% of study participants reported of implementing infection prevention measures (face masks and physical distancing recommendations).

CONCLUSION

The detected SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among the study participants was low at the time of the survey indicating higher proportion of population yet to be infected. COVID-19 preventive measures were associated with reduced seroprevalence and should be promoted to avoid transmission to the uninfected majority.

Temporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya

Observed SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths are low in tropical Africa raising questions about the extent of transmission. We measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG by ELISA in 9,922 blood donors across Kenya and adjusted for sampling bias and test performance. By 1st September 2020, 577 COVID-19 deaths were observed nationwide and seroprevalence was 9.1% (95%CI 7.6-10.8%). Seroprevalence in Nairobi was 22.7% (18.0-27.7%). Although most people remained susceptible, SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely in Kenya with apparently low associated mortality.