A Cross-Sectional Serosurvey of Anti-Orthopoxvirus Antibodies in Central and Western Africa

Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022

BackgroundFollowing the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks.AimWe combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM).MethodsSerum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the Rotterdam CSH, sera were linked to epidemiological and vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used to detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations were combined with published data on serial interval and vaccine effectiveness to inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates the risk of future mpox outbreaks.ResultsThe seroprevalence of VACV-specific antibodies was 45.4% and 47.1% in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission modelling showed that the impact of risk group vaccination on the original outbreak was likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, the number of mpox cases in a future outbreak would be markedly reduced because of vaccination. Simultaneously, the current level of immunity alone may not prevent future outbreaks. Maintaining a short time-to-diagnosis is a key component of any strategy to prevent new outbreaks.ConclusionOur findings indicate a reduced likelihood of large future mpox outbreaks among MSM in the Netherlands under current conditions, but emphasise the importance of maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities and disease awareness.

Serological methods for the detection of antibodies against monkeypox virus applicable for laboratories with different biosafety levels

The monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak in 2022 has renewed interest in the detection of antibodies against orthopox viruses (OPXV) and MPXV, as serological methods can aid diagnostics and are key to epidemiological studies. Here three complementary serological methods are described with different strengths to aid the development and evaluation of in-house assays: An immunofluorescence assay (IFA) for specific detection of IgG and IgM, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for higher sample throughput to aid epidemiological studies and a neutralization test to detect virus neutralizing antibodies. As implementation of MPXV-specific diagnostics is often hampered by the requirement for a dedicated biosafety level 3 laboratory (BSL-3), the focus of this study is on biosafety aspects to facilitate safe testing also under BSL-2 conditions. To this aim, it was analyzed whether OPXV, which can be handled under BSL-2 conditions, could be used as less virulent alternatives to MPXV. Furthermore, an inactivation method was established to remove up to five log-steps of infectious virus particles from viraemic sera without compromising antibody detection. The results show that immunological cross-reactivity between OPXV provides an opportunity for the interchangeable usage of different OPXV species in serological assays, enabling MPXV serology outside of BSL-3 facilities.

The global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and implications for current and future orthopoxvirus susceptibility: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than four decades after the eradication of smallpox, the ongoing 2022 monkeypox outbreak and increasing transmission events of other orthopoxviruses necessitate a greater understanding of the global distribution of susceptibility to orthopoxviruses. We aimed to characterise the current global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and orthopoxvirus susceptibility.

METHODS

We characterised the global landscape of smallpox vaccination at a subnational scale by integrating data on current demography with historical smallpox vaccination programme features (coverage and cessation dates) from eradication documents and published literature. We analysed this landscape to identify the factors that were most associated with geographical heterogeneity in current vaccination coverage. We considered how smallpox vaccination history might translate into age-specific susceptibility profiles for orthopoxviruses under different vaccination effectiveness scenarios.

FINDINGS

We found substantial global spatial heterogeneity in the landscape of smallpox vaccination, with vaccination coverage estimated to range from 7% to 60% within admin-1 regions (ie, regions one administrative level below country) globally, with negligible uncertainty (99·6% of regions have an SD less than 5%). We identified that geographical variation in vaccination coverage was driven mostly by differences in subnational demography. Additionally, we found that susceptibility for orthopoxviruses was highly age specific based on age at cessation and age-specific coverage; however, the age profile was consistent across vaccine effectiveness values.

INTERPRETATION

The legacy of smallpox eradication can be observed in the current landscape of smallpox vaccine protection. The strength and longevity of smallpox vaccination campaigns globally, combined with current demographic heterogeneity, have shaped the epidemiological landscape today, revealing substantial geographical variation in orthopoxvirus susceptibility. This study alerts public health decision makers to non-endemic regions that might be at greatest risk in the case of widespread and sustained transmission in the 2022 monkeypox outbreak and highlights the importance of demography and fine-scale spatial dynamics in predicting future public health risks from orthopoxviruses.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health and US National Science Foundation.

National Monkeypox Surveillance, Central African Republic, 2001-2021

We analyzed monkeypox disease surveillance in Central African Republic (CAR) during 2001-2021. Surveillance data show 95 suspected outbreaks, 40 of which were confirmed as monkeypox, comprising 99 confirmed and 61 suspected monkeypox cases. After 2018, CAR's annual rate of confirmed outbreaks increased, and 65% of outbreaks occurred in 2 forested regions bordering the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The median patient age for confirmed cases was 15.5 years. The overall case-fatality ratio was 7.5% (12/160) for confirmed and suspected cases, 9.6% (8/83) for children <16 years of age. Decreasing cross-protective immunity from smallpox vaccination and recent ecologic alterations likely contribute to increased monkeypox outbreaks in Central Africa. High fatality rates associated with monkeypox virus clade I also are a local and international concern. Ongoing investigations of zoonotic sources and environmental changes that increase human exposure could inform practices to prevent monkeypox expansion into local communities and beyond endemic areas.

Monkeypox 2022 outbreak in non-endemic countries: Open questions relevant for public health, nonpharmacological intervention and literature review

Starting from mid-May 2022, cases of human monkeypox started to rise in several non-endemic countries. By mid-July, more than 17000 confirmed/suspect cases have been reported by at least 82 countries worldwide, with a regular incremental trend. In order to contain the disease diffusion, risk evaluation is crucial to undertake informed decisions and effective communication campaigns. However, since orthopoxvirus infections so far have attracted low attention, due to the eradication of smallpox 40 years ago, and to the confinement of human monkeypox almost exclusively to endemic areas, several unresolved issues concerning natural history, ecology and pathogenesis remain. To this respect, we identified some open questions and reviewed the relevant literature on monkeypoxvirus and/or related orthopoxviruses. The results will be discussed in the perspective of their relevance to public health decisions, particularly those related to non-pharmacological interventions.

Atypical and Unique Transmission of Monkeypox Virus during the 2022 Outbreak: An Overview of the Current State of Knowledge

An ongoing monkeypox outbreak in non-endemic countries has resulted in the declaration of a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Though monkeypox has long been endemic in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, relatively little is known about its ecology, epidemiology, and transmission. Here, we consider the relevant research on both monkeypox and smallpox, a close relative, to make inferences about the current outbreak. Undetected circulation combined with atypical transmission and case presentation, including mild and asymptomatic disease, have facilitated the spread of monkeypox in non-endemic regions. A broader availability of diagnostics, enhanced surveillance, and targeted education, combined with a better understanding of the routes of transmission, are critical to identify at-risk populations and design science-based countermeasures to control the current outbreak.

Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017-2020

A monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria during 2017-2020 provides an illustrative case study for emerging zoonoses. We built a statistical model to simulate declining immunity from monkeypox at 2 levels: At the individual level, we used a constant rate of decline in immunity of 1.29% per year as smallpox vaccination rates fell. At the population level, the cohort of vaccinated residents decreased over time because of deaths and births. By 2016, only 10.1% of the total population in Nigeria was vaccinated against smallpox; the serologic immunity level was 25.7% among vaccinated persons and 2.6% in the overall population. The substantial resurgence of monkeypox in Nigeria in 2017 appears to have been driven by a combination of population growth, accumulation of unvaccinated cohorts, and decline in smallpox vaccine immunity. The expanding unvaccinated population means that entire households, not just children, are now more susceptible to monkeypox, increasing risk of human-to-human transmission.

Zoonotic disease preparedness in sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

The emergence of high consequence pathogens such as Ebola and SARS-CoV-2, along with the continued burden of neglected diseases such as rabies, has highlighted the need for preparedness for emerging and endemic infectious diseases of zoonotic origin in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using a One Health approach. To identify trends in SSA preparedness, the World Health Organization (WHO) Joint External Evaluation (JEE) reports were analysed. JEEs are voluntary, collaborative processes to assess country's capacities to prevent, detect and rapidly respond to public health risks. This report aimed to analyse the JEE zoonotic disease preparedness data as a whole and identify strengths and weaknesses.

METHODS

JEE zoonotic disease preparedness scores for 44 SSA countries who had completed JEEs were analysed. An overall zoonotic disease preparedness score was calculated as an average of the sum of all the SSA country zoonotic disease preparedness scores and compared to the overall mean JEE score. Zoonotic disease preparedness indicators were analysed and data were collated into regions to identify key areas of strength.

RESULTS

The mean 'Zoonotic disease' preparedness score (2.35, range 1.00-4.00) was 7% higher compared to the mean overall JEE preparedness score (2.19, range 1.55-3.30), putting 'Zoonotic Diseases' 5th out of 19 JEE sub-areas for preparedness. The average scores for each 'Zoonotic Disease' category were 2.45 for 'Surveillance Systems', 2.76 for 'Veterinary Workforce' and 1.84 for 'Response Mechanisms'. The Southern African region scored highest across the 'Zoonotic disease' categories (2.87).A multisectoral priority zoonotic pathogens list is in place for 43% of SSA countries and 70% reported undertaking national surveillance on 1-5 zoonotic diseases. 70% of SSA countries reported having public health training courses in place for veterinarians and 30% had veterinarians in all districts (reported as sufficient staffing). A multisectoral action plan for zoonotic outbreaks was in place for 14% countries and 32% reported having an established inter-agency response team for zoonotic outbreaks. The zoonotic diseases that appeared most in reported country priority lists were rabies and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) (both 89%), anthrax (83%), and brucellosis (78%).

CONCLUSIONS

With 'Zoonotic Diseases' ranking 5th in the JEE sub-areas and a mean SSA score 7% greater than the overall mean JEE score, zoonotic disease preparedness appears to have the attention of most SSA countries. However, the considerable range suggests that some countries have more measures in place than others, which may perhaps reflect the geography and types of pathogens that commonly occur. The category 'Response Mechanisms' had the lowest mean score across SSA, suggesting that implementing a multisectoral action plan and response team could provide the greatest gains.

Serological evidence for human exposure to Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis in the villages around Taï National Park, Côte d'Ivoire

Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) is an untypical anthrax-causing pathogen responsible for high wildlife mortality in Taï National Park (TNP), Côte d’Ivoire. However, nothing is known about its effect on the rural population living in the region bordering TNP. Contact to bushmeat is a known risk factor for exposure to a variety of zoonotic pathogens, but no human infections with Bcbva were noted so far. Therefore, we performed a retrospective seroprevalence analysis with sera from 1,386 study volunteers. We used assays which detect antibodies against the protective antigen PA, which is synthesized by both Bcbva and classic B. anthracis, and against the recently described antigen pXO2-60, a 35-kDa protein only produced by Bcbva. We found a high seroprevalence (22.37%) of antibodies against PA, and approximately half of those sera (10.46%) were also positive for the Bcbva-specific antigen pXO2-60. All sera negative for PA were also negative for antibodies against pXO2-60, confirming specificity and suitability of the PA/pXO2-60 combined serological assay. The fact that a large fraction of sera was positive for PA but negative for pXO2-60 can most likely be explained by lower immunogenicity of pXO2-60, but exposure to classic B. anthracis cannot be excluded. As only Bcbva has been detected in the TNP area so far, exposure to Bcbva can be suspected from the presence of antibodies against PA alone. In a questionnaire, most study participants reported contact to bushmeat and livestock carcasses. Unfortunately, risk factor analysis indicated that neither animal contacts, sex, age, nor country of origin were significant predictors of Bcbva seroprevalence. Nevertheless, our study added to an assessment of the distribution of Bcbva and its impact on the human population, and our data can serve to raise awareness of anthrax in the affected regions.

Anthrax is a zoonotic disease transmitted from animals to humans and normally caused by B. anthracis mainly in savanna regions. However, untypical bacteria named Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) were detected in a variety of wild animals in the rain forest region of the Taï National Park (TNP) in Côte d’Ivoire. No anthrax infections in humans living in the region around TNP were reported until now. Therefore, we assessed exposure to the pathogen by analysis of sera from human volunteers for the presence of antibodies against the protective antigen (PA), which is produced by B. anthracis and Bcbva, and against the Bcbva-specific protein pXO2-60. We found antibodies against PA in more than 20% of sera from humans living in the TNP region, and around 10% possessed also antibodies against pXO2-60, confirming exposure to Bcbva. As only Bcbva, but not classic B. anthracis was found in TNP, we assume that the majority of humans had contact with Bcbva and that pXO2-60 is less immunogenic than PA. Although most people reported animal contacts, there was no statistically significant correlation with the presence of antibodies against Bcbva. Nevertheless, our study confirmed that Bcbva represents a danger for humans living in the affected area.