Seasonal Patterns of Mpox Index Cases, Africa, 1970-2021

Across 133 confirmed mpox zoonotic index cases reported during 1970-2021 in Africa, cases occurred year-round near the equator, where climate is consistent. However, in tropical regions of the northern hemisphere under a dry/wet season cycle, cases occurred seasonally. Our findings further support the seasonality of mpox zoonotic transmission risk.

Understanding the impact of mobility on Plasmodium spp. carriage in an Amazon cross-border area with low transmission rate

Despite the large reduction in malaria incidence in the last decade, the last kilometre to elimination is often the hardest, especially in international border areas. This study investigated the impact of mobility on Plasmodium spp. carriage in people living in a cross-border area in Amazonia with a low malaria transmission rate. We implemented a longitudinal ancillary study in the French Guiana town of St. Georges de l'Oyapock, which is located on the border with Brazil. It was based on data from two transversal surveys performed in October 2017 and October 2018. Data were collected on peri-domestic mobility for food-producing activities, and longer-distance mobility in high-risk areas. Participants were screened for Plasmodium spp. carriage using PCR tests, and treated if positive. Vector density around a participant's home was estimated using a previously published model based on remote sensing and meteorological data. The association between Plasmodium spp. carriage and mobility was analysed using a generalized additive mixed model. A total of 1,192 inhabitants, aged between 0 and 92 years old, were included. Median age was 18 years in 2017 (IQR [8;35]). Plasmodium spp. prevalence in the study population was 7% in 2017 (n = 89) and 3% in 2018 (n = 35). Plasmodium spp. carriage was independently associated with i) travel to the adjoining Oiapoque Indigenous Territories in Brazil (OR = 1.76, p = 0.023), ii) the estimated vector density around a participant's home (High versus Low risk OR = 4.11, p<0.001), iii) slash-and-burn farming (OR = 1.96, p = 0.013), and iv) age (p = 0.032). Specific surveillance systems and interventions which take into account different types of mobility are needed in cross-border areas to achieve and maintain malaria elimination (e.g., reactive case detection and treatment in the places visited).

Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum carriage at the end of the dry season is associated with subsequent infection and clinical malaria in Eastern Gambia

BACKGROUND

Chronic carriage of asymptomatic low-density Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia in the dry season may support maintenance of acquired immunity that protects against clinical malaria. However, the relationship between chronic low-density infections and subsequent risk of clinical malaria episodes remains unclear.

METHODS

In a 2-years study (December 2014 to December 2016) in eastern Gambia, nine cross-sectional surveys using molecular parasite detection were performed in the dry and wet season. During the 2016 malaria transmission season, passive case detection identified episodes of clinical malaria.

RESULTS

Among the 5256 samples collected, 444 (8.4%) were positive for P. falciparum. A multivariate model identified village of residence, male sex, age ≥ 5 years old, anaemia, and fever as independent factors associated with P. falciparum parasite carriage. Infections did not cluster over time within the same households or recurred among neighbouring households. Asymptomatic parasite carriage at the end of dry season was associated with a higher risk of infection (Hazard Ratio, HR = 3.0, p < 0.0001) and clinical malaria (HR = 1.561, p = 0.057) during the following transmission season. Age and village of residence were additional predictors of infection and clinical malaria during the transmission season.

CONCLUSION

Chronic parasite carriage during the dry season is associated with an increased risk of malaria infection and clinical malaria. It is unclear whether this is due to environmental exposure or to other factors.

'Forest malaria' in Myanmar? Tracking transmission landscapes in a diversity of environments

BACKGROUND

In the Greater Mekong Subregion, case-control studies and national-level analyses have shown an association between malaria transmission and forest activities. The term 'forest malaria' hides the diversity of ecosystems in the GMS, which likely do not share a uniform malaria risk. To reach malaria elimination goals, it is crucial to document accurately (both spatially and temporally) the influence of environmental factors on malaria to improve resource allocation and policy planning within given areas. The aim of this ecological study is to characterize the association between malaria dynamics and detailed ecological environments determined at village level over a period of several years in Kayin State, Myanmar.

METHODS

We characterized malaria incidence profiles at village scale based on intra- and inter-annual variations in amplitude, seasonality, and trend over 4 years (2016-2020). Environment was described independently of village localization by overlaying a 2-km hexagonal grid over the region. Specifically, hierarchical classification on principal components, using remote sensing data of high spatial resolution, was used to assign a landscape and a climate type to each grid cell. We used conditional inference trees and random forests to study the association between the malaria incidence profile of each village, climate and landscape. Finally, we constructed eco-epidemiological zones to stratify and map malaria risk in the region by summarizing incidence and environment association information.

RESULTS

We identified a high diversity of landscapes (n = 19) corresponding to a gradient from pristine to highly anthropogenically modified landscapes. Within this diversity of landscapes, only three were associated with malaria-affected profiles. These landscapes were composed of a mosaic of dense and sparse forest fragmented by small agricultural patches. A single climate with moderate rainfall and a temperature range suitable for mosquito presence was also associated with malaria-affected profiles. Based on these environmental associations, we identified three eco-epidemiological zones marked by later persistence of Plasmodium falciparum, high Plasmodium vivax incidence after 2018, or a seasonality pattern in the rainy season.

CONCLUSIONS

The term forest malaria covers a multitude of contexts of malaria persistence, dynamics and populations at risk. Intervention planning and surveillance could benefit from consideration of the diversity of landscapes to focus on those specifically associated with malaria transmission.

Fever and health-seeking behaviour among migrants living along the Thai-Myanmar border: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Fever is a common reason to seek healthcare in Southeast Asia, and the decline of malaria has complexified how is perceived, and what actions are taken towards it. We investigated the concept of fever and the determinants influencing health-seeking behaviours among migrants on the Thai-Myanmar border, where rapid economic development collides with precarious political and socio-economic conditions.

METHODS

We implemented a mixed-methods study between August to December 2019. Phase I used a qualitative approach, with in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. Phase II used a quantitative approach with a close-ended questionnaire based on Phase I findings. A conditional inference tree (CIT) model first identified geographic and socio-demographic determinants, which were then tested using a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Fever corresponded to a high diversity of conceptions, symptoms and believed causes. Self-medication was the commonest behaviour at fever onset. If fever persisted, migrants primarily sought care in humanitarian cost-free clinics (45.5%, 92/202), followed by private clinics (43.1%, 87/202), health posts (36.1%, 73/202), public hospitals (33.7%, 68/202) and primary care units (30, 14.9%). The qualitative analysis identified distance and legal status as key barriers for accessing health care. The quantitative analysis further investigated determinants influencing health-seeking behaviour: living near a town where a cost-free clinic operated was inversely associated with seeking care at health posts (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.40, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] [0.19-0.86]), and public hospital attendance (aOR 0.31, 95% CI [0.14-0.67]). Living further away from the nearest town was associated with health posts attendance (aOR 1.05, 95% CI [1.00-1.10] per 1 km). Having legal status was inversely associated with cost-free clinics attendance (aOR 0.27, 95% CI [0.10-0.71]), and positively associated with private clinic and public hospital attendance (aOR 2.56, 95% CI [1.00-6.54] and 5.15, 95% CI [1.80-14.71], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Fever conception and believed causes are context-specific and should be investigated prior to any intervention. Distance to care and legal status were key determinants influencing health-seeking behaviour. Current economic upheavals are accelerating the unregulated flow of undocumented migrants from Myanmar to Thailand, warranting further inclusiveness and investments in the public health system.

Investigation of a mpox outbreak in Central African Republic, 2021-2022

Human monkeypox virus is spreading globally, and more information is required about its epidemiological and clinical disease characteristics in endemic countries. We report the investigation of an outbreak in November 2021 in Central African Republic (CAR). The primary case, a hunter, fell ill after contact with a non-human primate at the frontier between forest and savannah. The ensuing investigation in a small nearby town concerned two families and four waves of inter-human transmission, with 14 confirmed cases, 11 suspected cases and 17 non-infected contacts, and a secondary attack rate of 59.5% (25/42). Complications were observed in 12 of the 19 (63.2%) confirmed and suspected cases with available clinical follow-up data: eight cases of bronchopneumonia, two of severe dehydration, one corneal ulcer, one abscess, two cutaneous superinfections, and six cutaneous sequelae (cheloid scars, or depigmentation). There was one death, giving a case fatality ratio of 1/25 (4.0%) for confirmed and suspected cases. This outbreak, with the largest number of confirmed cases ever described in CAR, confirms the potential severity of the disease associated with clade I monkeypox viruses, and highlights the need for rapid control over virus circulation to prevent the further national and international spread of infection.

Social deprivation and SARS-CoV-2 testing: a population-based analysis in a highly contrasted southern France region

Background

Testing was the cornerstone of the COVID-19 epidemic response in most countries until vaccination became available for the general population. Social inequalities generally affect access to healthcare and health behaviors, and COVID-19 was rapidly shown to impact deprived population more drastically. In support of the regional health agency in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) in South-Eastern France, we analyzed the relationship between testing rate and socio-demographic characteristics of the population, to identify gaps in testing coverage and improve targeting of response strategies.

Methods

We conducted an ecological analysis of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 testing rate in the PACA region, based on data aggregated at the finest spatial resolution available in France (IRIS) and by periods defined by public health implemented measures and major epidemiological changes. Using general census data, population density, and specific deprivation indices, we used principal component analysis followed by hierarchical clustering to define profiles describing local socio-demographic characteristics. We analyzed the association between these profiles and testing rates in a generalized additive multilevel model, adjusting for access to healthcare, presence of a retirement home, and the age profile of the population.

Results

We identified 6 socio-demographic profiles across the 2,306 analyzed IRIS spatial units: privileged, remote, intermediate, downtown, deprived, and very deprived (ordered by increasing social deprivation index). Profiles also ranged from rural (remote) to high density urban areas (downtown, very deprived). From July 2020 to December 2021, we analyzed SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 testing rate over 10 periods. Testing rates fluctuated strongly but were highest in privileged and downtown areas, and lowest in very deprived ones. The lowest adjusted testing rate ratios (aTRR) between privileged (reference) and other profiles occurred after implementation of a mandatory healthpass for many leisure activities in July 2021. Periods of contextual testing near Christmas displayed the largest aTRR, especially during the last periods of 2021 after the end of free convenience testing for unvaccinated individuals.

Conclusion

We characterized in-depth local heterogeneity and temporal trends in testing rates and identified areas and circumstances associated with low testing rates, which the regional health agency targeted specifically for the deployment of health mediation activities.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and living conditions in Bamako (Mali): a cross-sectional multistage household survey after the first epidemic wave, 2020

OBJECTIVES

In low-income settings with limited access to diagnosis, COVID-19 information is scarce. In September 2020, after the first COVID-19 wave, Mali reported 3086 confirmed cases and 130 deaths. Most reports originated from Bamako, with 1532 cases and 81 deaths (2.42 million inhabitants). This observed prevalence of 0.06% appeared very low. Our objective was to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection among inhabitants of Bamako, after the first epidemic wave. We assessed demographic, social and living conditions, health behaviours and knowledges associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.

SETTINGS

We conducted a cross-sectional multistage household survey during September 2020, in three neighbourhoods of the commune VI (Bamako), where 30% of the cases were reported.

PARTICIPANTS

We recruited 1526 inhabitants in 3 areas, that is, 306 households, and 1327 serological results (≥1 years), 220 household questionnaires and collected answers for 962 participants (≥12 years).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We measured serological status, detecting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies in blood sampled. We documented housing conditions and individual health behaviours through questionnaires among participants. We estimated the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths in the population of Bamako using the age and sex distributions.

RESULTS

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was 16.4% (95% CI 15.1% to 19.1%) after adjusting on the population structure. This suggested that ~400 000 cases and ~2000 deaths could have occurred of which only 0.4% of cases and 5% of deaths were officially reported. Questionnaires analyses suggested strong agreement with washing hands but lower acceptability of movement restrictions (lockdown/curfew), and mask wearing.

CONCLUSIONS

The first wave of SARS-CoV-2 spread broadly in Bamako. Expected fatalities remained limited largely due to the population age structure and the low prevalence of comorbidities. Improving diagnostic capacities to encourage testing and preventive behaviours, and avoiding the spread of false information remain key pillars, regardless of the developed or developing setting.

ETHICS

This study was registered in the registry of the ethics committee of the Faculty of Medicine and Odonto-Stomatology and the Faculty of Pharmacy, Bamako, Mali, under the number: 2020/162/CA/FMOS/FAPH.

Malaria Temporal Dynamic Clustering for Surveillance and Intervention Planning

BACKGROUND

Targeting interventions where most needed and effective is crucial for public health. Malaria control and elimination strategies increasingly rely on stratification to guide surveillance, to allocate vector control campaigns, and to prioritize access to community-based early diagnosis and treatment (EDT). We developed an original approach of dynamic clustering to improve local discrimination between heterogeneous malaria transmission settings.

METHODS

We analysed weekly malaria incidence records obtained from community-based EDT (malaria posts) in Karen/Kayin state, Myanmar. We smoothed longitudinal incidence series over multiple seasons using functional transformation. We regrouped village incidence series into clusters using a dynamic time warping clustering and compared them to the standard, 5-category annual incidence standard stratification.

RESULTS

We included 1115 villages from 2016 to 2020. We identified eleven P. falciparum and P. vivax incidence clusters which differed by amplitude, trends and seasonality. Specifically the 124 villages classified as "high transmission area" in the standard P. falciparum stratification belonged to the 11 distinct groups when accounting to inter-annual trends and intra-annual variations. Likewise for P. vivax, 399 "high transmission" villages actually corresponded to the 11 distinct dynamics.

CONCLUSION

Our temporal dynamic clustering methodology is easy to implement and extracts more information than standard malaria stratification. Our method exploits longitudinal surveillance data to distinguish local dynamics, such as increasing inter-annual trends or seasonal differences, providing key information for decision-making. It is relevant to malaria strategies in other settings and to other diseases, especially when many countries deploy health information systems and collect increasing amounts of health outcome data.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Global Fund against AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Regional Artemisinin Initiative) and the Wellcome Trust funded the METF program.

Cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection within the homeless population: insights from a city-wide longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in a cohort of homeless people using survival analysis. Seroprevalence in the homeless community was also compared with that of the general population.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Data were collected across two testing sessions, 3 months apart, during which each participant was tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and completed a face-to-face survey.

PARTICIPANTS

All homeless adults sleeping rough, in slums or squats, in emergency shelters or transitional accommodation in Marseille were eligible.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Occurrence of a seroconversion event defined as a biologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Local data from a national seroprevalence survey were used for comparison between homeless people and the general population.

RESULTS

A total of 1249 people were included. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased from 6.0% (4.7-7.3) during the first session to 18.9% (16.0-21.7) during the second one, compared with 3.0% (1.9-4.2) and 6.5% (4.5-8.7) in the general population. Factors significantly associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 infection were: having stayed in emergency shelters (1.93 (1.18-3.15)), being an isolated parent (1.64 (1.07-2.52)) and having contact with more than 5-15 people per day (1.84 (1.27-2.67)). By contrast, smoking (0.46 (0.32-0.65)), having financial resources (0.70 (0.51-0.97)) and psychiatric or addictive comorbidities (0.52 (0.32-0.85)) were associated with a lower risk.

CONCLUSION

We confirm that homeless people have higher infection rates than the general population, with increased risk in emergency shelters. There is growing evidence that, in addition to usual preventive measures, public policies should pay attention to adapt the type of accommodation and overall approach of precariousness.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04408131.

The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infection on neutralising antibodies: a nation-wide cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

Neutralising antibodies (nAbs) play a critical role in the protection against severe COVID-19. In the era of vaccine boosters and repeated SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, identifying individuals at risk represents a public health priority.

METHODS

Relying on the Monaco COVID Public Health Programme, we evaluated nAbs from July 2021-June 2022 in 8,080 SARS-CoV-2 vaccinated and/or infected children and adults, at their inclusion visit. We stratified by infection status and investigated variables associated with nAbs using a generalised additive model.

RESULTS

Infected and vaccinated participants had high and consistent nAbs (>800 IU/mL), which remained stable over time since injection, regardless of the number of vaccine doses, body mass index, sex, or age. By contrast, uninfected participants showed larger variability (two doses [V2] median 157.6; interquartile range [IQR] 43.3-439.1 IU/mL) versus three doses [V3] median 882.5; [829.5-914.8] IU/mL). In the multivariate model, nAbs decreased by 20% per month after V2 (adjusted ratio 0.80; 95%CI [0.79-0.82]), but remained stable after V3 (adjusted ratio 0.98; 95%CI [0.92-1.05]).

CONCLUSIONS

Hybrid immunity provided stable, high and consistent nAbs over time. The benefit of boosters was marked to restore decaying nAbs in uninfected participants. NAbs could identify individuals at risk of severe COVID-19 and provide more targeted vaccine boosters' campaigns.

National Monkeypox Surveillance, Central African Republic, 2001-2021

We analyzed monkeypox disease surveillance in Central African Republic (CAR) during 2001-2021. Surveillance data show 95 suspected outbreaks, 40 of which were confirmed as monkeypox, comprising 99 confirmed and 61 suspected monkeypox cases. After 2018, CAR's annual rate of confirmed outbreaks increased, and 65% of outbreaks occurred in 2 forested regions bordering the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The median patient age for confirmed cases was 15.5 years. The overall case-fatality ratio was 7.5% (12/160) for confirmed and suspected cases, 9.6% (8/83) for children <16 years of age. Decreasing cross-protective immunity from smallpox vaccination and recent ecologic alterations likely contribute to increased monkeypox outbreaks in Central Africa. High fatality rates associated with monkeypox virus clade I also are a local and international concern. Ongoing investigations of zoonotic sources and environmental changes that increase human exposure could inform practices to prevent monkeypox expansion into local communities and beyond endemic areas.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Malaria Incidence in the Health District of Kati, Mali, 2015-2019

INTRODUCTION

Despite the implementation of control strategies at the national scale, the malaria burden remains high in Mali, with more than 2.8 million cases reported in 2019. In this context, a new approach is needed, which accounts for the spatio-temporal variability of malaria transmission at the local scale. This study aimed to describe the spatio-temporal variability of malaria incidence and the associated meteorological and environmental factors in the health district of Kati, Mali.

METHODS

Daily malaria cases were collected from the consultation records of the 35 health areas of Kati's health district, for the period 2015-2019. Data on rainfall, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, the normalized difference vegetation index, air pressure, and land use-land cover were extracted from open-access remote sensing sources, while data on the Niger River's height and flow were obtained from the National Department of Hydraulics. To reduce the dimension and account for collinearity, strongly correlated meteorological and environmental variables were combined into synthetic indicators (SI), using a principal component analysis. A generalized additive model was built to determine the lag and the relationship between the main SIs and malaria incidence. The transmission periods were determined using a change-point analysis. High-risk clusters (hotspots) were detected using the SatScan method and were ranked according to risk level, using a classification and regression tree analysis.

RESULTS

The peak of the malaria incidence generally occurred in October. Peak incidence decreased from 60 cases per 1000 person-weeks in 2015, to 27 cases per 1000 person-weeks in 2019. The relationship between the first SI (river flow and height, relative humidity, and rainfall) and malaria incidence was positive and almost linear. A non-linear relationship was found between the second SI (air pressure and temperature) and malaria incidence. Two transmission periods were determined per year: a low transmission period from January to July-corresponding to a persisting transmission during the dry season-and a high transmission period from July to December. The spatial distribution of malaria hotspots varied according to the transmission period.

DISCUSSION

Our study confirmed the important variability of malaria incidence and found malaria transmission to be associated with several meteorological and environmental factors in the Kati district. The persistence of malaria during the dry season and the spatio-temporal variability of malaria hotspots reinforce the need for innovative and targeted strategies.

Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data

Background

In malaria endemic countries, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions are performed during the high malaria transmission in accordance with epidemiological surveillance data. In this study we propose a predictive approach for tailoring the timing and number of cycles of SMC in all health districts of Mali based on sub-national epidemiological surveillance and rainfall data. Our primary objective was to select the best of two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season at the operational scale. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the number of malaria cases, hospitalisations and deaths in children under 5 years of age that would be prevented annually and the additional cost that would be incurred using the best approach.

Methods

For each of the 75 health districts of Mali over the study period (2014–2019), we determined (1) the onset of the rainy season period based on weekly rainfall data; (ii) the onset and duration of the high transmission season using change point analysis of weekly incidence data; and (iii) the lag between the onset of the rainy season and the onset of the high transmission. Two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 were evaluated.

Results

In the study period (2014–2019), the onset of the rainy season ranged from week (W) 17 (W17; April) to W34 (August). The onset of the high transmission season ranged from W25 (June) to W40 (September). The lag between these two events ranged from 5 to 12 weeks. The duration of the high transmission season ranged from 3 to 6 months. The best of the two approaches predicted the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 to be in June in two districts, in July in 46 districts, in August in 21 districts and in September in six districts. Using our proposed approach would prevent 43,819 cases, 1943 hospitalisations and 70 deaths in children under 5 years of age annually for a minimal additional cost. Our analysis shows that the number of cycles of SMC should be changed in 36 health districts.

Conclusion

Adapting the timing of SMC interventions using our proposed approach could improve the prevention of malaria cases and decrease hospitalisations and deaths. Future studies should be conducted to validate this approach.

Graphical Abstract

Surveillance to achieve malaria elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study

Background

The collection and utilization of surveillance data is essential in monitoring progress towards achieving malaria elimination, in the timely response to increases in malaria case numbers and in the assessment of programme functioning. This paper describes the surveillance activities used by the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme which operates in eastern Myanmar, and provides an analysis of data collected from weekly surveillance, case investigations, and monitoring and evaluation of programme performance.

Methods

This retrospective analysis was conducted using data collected from a network of 1250 malaria posts operational between 2014 and 2021. To investigate changes in data completeness, malaria post performance, malaria case numbers, and the demographic details of malaria cases, summary statistics were used to compare data collected over space and time.

Results

In the first 3 years of the METF programme, improvements in data transmission routes resulted in a 18.9% reduction in late reporting, allowing for near real-time analysis of data collected at the malaria posts. In 2020, travel restrictions were in place across Karen State in response to COVID-19, and from February 2021 the military coup in Myanmar resulted in widescale population displacement. However, over that period there has been no decline in malaria post attendance, and the majority of consultations continue to occur within 48 h of fever onset. Case investigations found that 43.8% of cases travelled away from their resident village in the 3 weeks prior to diagnosis and 36.3% reported never using a bed net whilst sleeping in their resident village, which increased to 72.2% when sleeping away from their resident village. Malaria post assessments performed in 82.3% of the METF malaria posts found malaria posts generally performed to a high standard.

Conclusions

Surveillance data collected by the METF programme demonstrate that despite significant changes in the context in which the programme operates, malaria posts have remained accessible and continue to provide early diagnosis and treatment contributing to an 89.3% decrease in Plasmodium falciparum incidence between 2014 and 2021.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04175-w.

Défavorisation sociale et facteurs associés au dépistage du SARS-CoV-2 à l'échelle locale dans une région du Sud de la France entre Juillet 2020 et Janvier 2022

Introduction

Les inégalités sociales sont fortement associées aux inégalités de santé, que ce soit pour les maladies chroniques ou infectieuses. Le SARS-CoV-2 ne fait pas exception, l'étude nationale EpiCov ayant montré dès juin 2020 un risque de COVID-19 croissant avec la défavorisation sociale.

Le dépistage demeure un des piliers du contrôle de cette pandémie, tant à l'échelle individuelle pour l'isolement des cas et de leurs contacts à risque, que populationnelle pour identifier et cibler certaines mesures d'accompagnement. L'accès au dépistage ne saurait être considéré comme uniforme, tant l'accès au soin apparaît déficitaire dans certains territoires (zones urbaines défavorisées, rurales). Par ailleurs, le manque de prise en compte des inégalités sociales dans les mesures de suivi des cas a été souligné.

Notre objectif était de prendre en compte le sous-diagnostic du SARS-CoV-2 lié à la défavorisation sociale afin d'améliorer le ciblage des actions de santé publique à l'échelle régionale.

Matériels et méthodes

Le nombre de tests (RT-PCR et antigéniques) et de cas de COVID-19 positifs enregistrés dans la base SI-DEP ont été agrégées à l'échelle spatiale des IRIS (subdivision géographique d'environ 2000 habitants) et temporelle selon des périodes correspondant aux grandes mesures de contrôle de l'épidémie (pré-, pendant, post-confinement, passe sanitaire…). Les taux de dépistage, d'incidence de COVID-19 et de positivité des tests ont été définis par IRIS et par période.

Nous avons caractérisé le profil socio-démographique de chaque IRIS à partir de données de population et d'accès au soin (source INSEE et DREES), et de l'European Deprivation Index (EDI), indicateur spécifique de défavorisation sociale.

Enfin, nous avons analysé le ratio de taux de dépistage (RTD) selon le profil socio-démographique après ajustement sur l'accès au soin, au moyen d'un modèle additif généralisé hiérarchique prenant en compte l'autocorrélation spatiale entre les IRIS voisins.

Résultats

Nous avons distingué 10 périodes entre Juillet 2020 et Janvier 2022, et identifié six profils d'IRIS : un profil rural, un rural/péri-urbain, et quatre profils urbains correspondant respectivement à des IRIS aisés, denses de centre-ville, défavorisées, et denses très défavorisées.

Le taux de dépistage des IRIS urbains très défavorisés était systématiquement inférieur au taux de dépistage des IRIS urbains/péri-urbains aisés (RTD entre 0.85 (IC95 %=0.80-0.91) et 0.64 (0.59-0.69)). Les pics d'incidence de COVID-19 ont été atteints plus tardivement dans les IRIS très défavorisées que dans les IRIS aisés lors de périodes de confinement (novembre 2020) ou de périodes de vaccination massive (juillet 2021).

Conclusion

Cette étude a permis d'identifier une liste limitée d'IRIS caractérisés par un sous-dépistage et un retard d'efficacité des mesures sanitaires de freinage de la COVID-19. Ils ont ainsi pu être priorisés dans les interventions mises en place par les acteurs régionaux et locaux de la réponse à la pandémie.

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Residential Mobility of a Cohort of Homeless People in Times of Crisis: COVID-19 Pandemic in a European Metropolis

Most vulnerable individuals are particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study takes place in a large city in France. The aim of this study is to describe the mobility of the homeless population at the beginning of the health crisis and to analyze its impact in terms of COVID-19 prevalence. From June to August 2020 and September to December 2020, 1272 homeless people were invited to be tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and virus and complete questionnaires. Our data show that homeless populations are sociologically different depending on where they live. We show that people that were living on the street were most likely to be relocated to emergency shelters than other inhabitants. Some neighborhoods are points of attraction for homeless people in the city while others emptied during the health crisis, which had consequences for virus circulation. People with a greater number of different dwellings reported became more infected. This first study of the mobility and epidemiology of homeless people in the time of the pandemic provides unique information about mobility mapping, sociological factors of this mobility, mobility at different scales, and epidemiological consequences. We suggest that homeless policies need to be radically transformed since the actual model exposes people to infection in emergency.

High levels of pathological jaundice in the first 24 hours and neonatal hyperbilirubinaemia in an epidemiological cohort study on the Thailand-Myanmar border

Population risks for neonatal hyperbilirubinaemia (NH) vary. Knowledge of local risks permits interventions that may reduce the proportion becoming severe. Between January 2015 and May 2016, in a resource-limited setting on the Thailand-Myanmar border, neonates from 28 weeks' gestation were enrolled into a prospective birth cohort. Each neonate had total serum bilirubin measurements: scheduled (24, 48, 72 and 144 hours of life) and clinically indicated; and weekly follow up until 1 month of age. Risk factors for developing NH were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard mixed model. Of 1710 neonates, 22% (376) developed NH (83% preterm, 19% term). All neonates born <35 weeks, four in five born 35-37 weeks, and three in twenty born ≥38 weeks had NH, giving an overall incidence of 249 per 1000 livebirths [95%CI 225, 403]. Mortality from acute bilirubin encephalopathy was 10% (2/20) amongst the 5.3% (20/376) who reached the severe NH threshold. One-quarter (26.3%) of NH occurred within 24 hours. NH onset varied with gestational age: at a median [IQR] 24 hours [24, 30] for neonates born 37 weeks or prematurely vs 59 hours [48, 84] for neonates born ≥38 weeks. Risk factors for NH in the first week of life independent of gestational age were: neonatal G6PD deficiency, birth bruising, Sgaw Karen ethnicity, primigravidae, pre-eclampsia, and prolonged rupture of membranes. The genetic impact of G6PD deficiency on NH was partially interpreted by using the florescent spot test and further genotyping work is in progress. The risk of NH in Sgaw Karen refugees may be overlooked internationally as they are most likely regarded as Burmese in countries of resettlement. Given high levels of pathological jaundice in the first 24 hours and overall high NH burden, guidelines changes were implemented including preventive PT for all neonates <35 weeks and for those 35-37 weeks with risk factors.

Longitudinal trends in malaria testing rates in the face of elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study

BACKGROUND

Providing at-risk communities with uninterrupted access to early diagnosis and treatment is a key component in reducing malaria transmission and achieving elimination. As programmes approach malaria elimination targets it is critical that each case is tested and treated early, which may present a challenge when the burden of malaria is reduced. In this paper we investigate whether malaria testing rates decline over time and assess the impacts of integrating malaria and non-malaria services on testing rates in the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme in the Kayin state of Myanmar.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted using weekly collected data on testing rates from a network of more than 1200 malaria posts during the period from 2014 to 2020. To determine whether monthly testing rates changed over the years of programme operations, and whether integrating malaria and non-malaria services impacted these testing rates, we fitted negative binomial mixed-effects regression models to aggregate monthly data, accounting for malaria seasonal variation.

RESULTS

In the first year of malaria post operation, testing rates declined, correlating with a decline in attendance by people from outside the malaria post catchment area, but then remained fairly constant (the Rate Ratio (RR) for 2nd versus 1st year open ranged from 0.68 to 0.84 across the four townships included in the analysis, the RR for 3rd to 6th year versus 1st year open were similar, ranging from 0.59-0.78). The implementation of a training programme, which was intended to expand the role of the malaria post workers, had minimal impact on testing rates up to 24 months after training was delivered (RR for integrated versus malaria-only services ranged from 1.00 to 1.07 across METF townships).

CONCLUSION

Despite the decline in malaria incidence from 2014 to 2020, there has been no decline in the malaria testing rate in the METF programme after the establishment of the complete malaria post network in 2016. While the integration of malaria posts with other health services provides benefits to the population, our evaluation questions the necessity of integrated services in maintaining malaria testing rates in areas approaching elimination of malaria.

Development of weight and age-based dosing of daily primaquine for radical cure of vivax malaria

BACKGROUND

In many endemic areas, Plasmodium vivax malaria is predominantly a disease of young adults and children. International recommendations for radical cure recommend fixed target doses of 0.25 or 0.5 mg/kg/day of primaquine for 14 days in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal patients of all ages. However, for many anti-malarial drugs, including primaquine, there is evidence that children have lower exposures than adults for the same weight-adjusted dose. The aim of the study was to develop 14-day weight-based and age-based primaquine regimens against high-frequency relapsing tropical P. vivax.

METHODS

The recommended adult target dose of 0.5 mg/kg/day (30 mg in a 60 kg patient) is highly efficacious against tropical P. vivax and was assumed to produce optimal drug exposure. Primaquine doses were calculated using allometric scaling to derive a weight-based primaquine regimen over a weight range from 5 to 100 kg. Growth curves were constructed from an anthropometric database of 53,467 individuals from the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to define weight-for-age relationships. The median age associated with each weight was used to derive an age-based dosing regimen from the weight-based regimen.

RESULTS

The proposed weight-based regimen has 5 dosing bands: (i) 5-7 kg, 5 mg, resulting in 0.71-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 8-16 kg, 7.5 mg, 0.47-0.94 mg/kg/day; (iii) 17-40 kg, 15 mg, 0.38-0.88 mg/kg/day; (iv) 41-80 kg, 30 mg, 0.37-0.73 mg/kg/day; and (v) 81-100 kg, 45 mg, 0.45-0.56 mg/kg/day. The corresponding age-based regimen had 4 dosing bands: 6-11 months, 5 mg, 0.43-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 1-5 years, 7.5 mg, 0.35-1.25 mg/kg/day; (iii) 6-14 years, 15 mg, 0.30-1.36 mg/kg/day; and (iv) ≥ 15 years, 30 mg, 0.35-1.07 mg/kg/day.

CONCLUSION

The proposed weight-based regimen showed less variability around the primaquine dose within each dosing band compared to the age-based regimen and is preferred. Increased dose accuracy could be achieved by additional dosing bands for both regimens. The age-based regimen might not be applicable to regions outside the GMS, which must be based on local anthropometric data. Pharmacokinetic data in small children are needed urgently to inform the proposed regimens.

Genetic surveillance in the Greater Mekong subregion and South Asia to support malaria control and elimination

Background

National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs) currently make limited use of parasite genetic data. We have developed GenRe-Mekong, a platform for genetic surveillance of malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) that enables NMCPs to implement large-scale surveillance projects by integrating simple sample collection procedures in routine public health procedures.

Methods

Samples from symptomatic patients are processed by SpotMalaria, a high-throughput system that produces a comprehensive set of genotypes comprising several drug resistance markers, species markers and a genomic barcode. GenRe-Mekong delivers Genetic Report Cards, a compendium of genotypes and phenotype predictions used to map prevalence of resistance to multiple drugs.

Results

GenRe-Mekong has worked with NMCPs and research projects in eight countries, processing 9623 samples from clinical cases. Monitoring resistance markers has been valuable for tracking the rapid spread of parasites resistant to the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine combination therapy. In Vietnam and Laos, GenRe-Mekong data have provided novel knowledge about the spread of these resistant strains into previously unaffected provinces, informing decision-making by NMCPs.

Conclusions

GenRe-Mekong provides detailed knowledge about drug resistance at a local level, and facilitates data sharing at a regional level, enabling cross-border resistance monitoring and providing the public health community with valuable insights. The project provides a rich open data resource to benefit the entire malaria community.

Funding

The GenRe-Mekong project is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP11188166, OPP1204268). Genotyping and sequencing were funded by the Wellcome Trust (098051, 206194, 203141, 090770, 204911, 106698/B/14/Z) and Medical Research Council (G0600718). A proportion of samples were collected with the support of the UK Department for International Development (201900, M006212), and Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave

Higher transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in cold and dry weather conditions has been hypothesized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but the level of epidemiological evidence remains low. During the first wave of the pandemic, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Canada and USA presented an early spread, a heavy COVID-19 burden, and low initial public health response until lockdowns. In a context when testing was limited, we calculated the basic reproduction number (R₀) in 63 regions from the growth in regional death counts. After adjusting for population density, early spread of the epidemic, and age structure, temperature and humidity were negatively associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. A reduction of mean absolute humidity by 1 g/m³ was associated with a 0.15-unit increase of R₀. Below 10 °C, a temperature reduction of 1 °C was associated with a 0.16-unit increase of R₀. Our results confirm a dependency of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility to weather conditions in the absence of control measures during the first wave. The transition from summer to winter, corresponding to drop in temperature associated with an overall decrease in absolute humidity, likely contributed to the intensification of the second wave in north-west hemisphere countries. Non-pharmaceutical interventions must be adjusted to account for increased transmissibility in winter conditions.

Factors associated with the spatial heterogeneity of the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a nationwide geo-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to better understand the factors associated with the heterogeneity of in-hospital COVID-19 morbidity and mortality across France, one of the countries most affected by COVID-19 in the early months of the pandemic.

METHODS

This geo-epidemiological analysis was based on data publicly available on government and administration websites for the 96 administrative departments of metropolitan France between March 19 and May 11, 2020, including Public Health France, the Regional Health Agencies, the French national statistics institute, and the Ministry of Health. Using hierarchical ascendant classification on principal component analysis of multidimensional variables, and multivariate analyses with generalised additive models, we assessed the associations between several factors (spatiotemporal spread of the epidemic between Feb 7 and March 17, 2020, the national lockdown, demographic population structure, baseline intensive care capacities, baseline population health and health-care services, new chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine dispensations, economic indicators, degree of urbanisation, and climate profile) and in-hospital COVID-19 incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates. Incidence rate was defined as the cumulative number of in-hospital COVID-19 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, mortality rate as the cumulative number of in-hospital COVID-19 deaths per 100 000, and case fatality rate as the cumulative number of in-hospital COVID-19 deaths per cumulative number of in-hospital COVID-19 cases.

FINDINGS

From March 19 to May 11, 2020, hospitals in metropolitan France notified a total of 100 988 COVID-19 cases, including 16 597 people who were admitted to intensive care and 17 062 deaths. There was an overall cumulative in-hospital incidence rate of 155·6 cases per 100 000 inhabitants (range 19·4-489·5), in-hospital mortality rate of 26·3 deaths per 100 000 (1·1-119·2), and in-hospital case fatality rate of 16·9% (4·8-26·2). We found clear spatial heterogeneity of in-hospital COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates, following the spread of the epidemic. After multivariate adjustment, the delay between the first COVID-19-associated death and the onset of the national lockdown was positively associated with in-hospital incidence (adjusted standardised incidence ratio 1·02, 95% CI 1·01-1·04), mortality (adjusted standardised mortality ratio 1·04, 1·02-1·06), and case fatality rates (adjusted standardised fatality ratio 1·01, 1·01-1·02). Mortality and case fatality rates were higher in departments with older populations (adjusted standardised ratio for populations with a high proportion older than aged >85 years 2·17 [95% CI 1·20-3·90] for mortality and 1·43 [1·08-1·88] for case fatality rate). Mortality rate was also associated with incidence rate (1·0004, 1·0002-1·001), but mortality and case fatality rates did not appear to be associated with baseline intensive care capacities. We found no association between climate and in-hospital COVID-19 incidence, or between economic indicators and in-hospital COVID-19 incidence or mortality rates.

INTERPRETATION

This ecological study highlights the impact of the epidemic spread, national lockdown, and reactive adaptation of intensive care capacities on the spatial distribution of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. It provides information for future geo-epidemiological analyses and has implications for preparedness and response policies to current and future epidemic waves in France and elsewhere.

FUNDING

None.

Evaluation of 11 DNA Automated Extraction Protocols for the Detection of the 5 Mains Candida Species from Artificially Spiked Blood

The molecular detection of Candida plays an important role in the diagnosis of candidaemia, a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The sensitivity of this diagnosis is partly related to the efficiency of yeast DNA extraction. In this monocentric study, we investigated the suitability of 11 recent automated procedures for the extraction of low and high amounts of Candida DNA from spiked blood. The efficacy of the DNA extraction procedures to detect Candida spp. in blood samples ranged from 31.4% to 80.6%. The NucliSENS^TM easyMAG^TM procedure was the most efficient, for each species and each inoculum. It significantly outperformed the other procedures at the lower Candida inocula mimicking the clinical setting. This study highlighted a heterogeneity in DNA extraction efficacy between the five main Candida species (Candida albicans, Candida glabrata, Candida parapsilosis, Candida tropicalis and Candida krusei). Up to five automated procedures were appropriate for C. krusei DNA extraction, whereas only one method yielded an appropriate detection of low amount of C. tropicalis. In the era of the syndromic approach to bloodstream infection diagnosis, this evaluation of 11 automated DNA extraction methods for the PCR diagnosis of candidaemia, puts the choice of an appropriate method in routine diagnosis within the reach of laboratories.

Association between the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections detected by passive surveillance and the magnitude of the asymptomatic reservoir in the community: a pooled analysis of paired health facility and community data

BACKGROUND

Passively collected malaria case data are the foundation for public health decision making. However, because of population-level immunity, infections might not always be sufficiently symptomatic to prompt individuals to seek care. Understanding the proportion of all Plasmodium spp infections expected to be detected by the health system becomes particularly paramount in elimination settings. The aim of this study was to determine the association between the proportion of infections detected and transmission intensity for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in several global endemic settings.

METHODS

The proportion of infections detected in routine malaria data, P(Detect), was derived from paired household cross-sectional survey and routinely collected malaria data within health facilities. P(Detect) was estimated using a Bayesian model in 431 clusters spanning the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The association between P(Detect) and malaria prevalence was assessed using log-linear regression models. Changes in P(Detect) over time were evaluated using data from 13 timepoints over 2 years from The Gambia.

FINDINGS

The median estimated P(Detect) across all clusters was 12·5% (IQR 5·3-25·0) for P falciparum and 10·1% (5·0-18·3) for P vivax and decreased as the estimated log-PCR community prevalence increased (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for P falciparum 0·63, 95% CI 0·57-0·69; adjusted OR for P vivax 0·52, 0·47-0·57). Factors associated with increasing P(Detect) included smaller catchment population size, high transmission season, improved care-seeking behaviour by infected individuals, and recent increases (within the previous year) in transmission intensity.

INTERPRETATION

The proportion of all infections detected within health systems increases once transmission intensity is sufficiently low. The likely explanation for P falciparum is that reduced exposure to infection leads to lower levels of protective immunity in the population, increasing the likelihood that infected individuals will become symptomatic and seek care. These factors might also be true for P vivax but a better understanding of the transmission biology is needed to attribute likely reasons for the observed trend. In low transmission and pre-elimination settings, enhancing access to care and improvements in care-seeking behaviour of infected individuals will lead to an increased proportion of infections detected in the community and might contribute to accelerating the interruption of transmission.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots in Central Senegal, 2008-2012

Background

In malaria endemic areas, identifying spatio-temporal hotspots is becoming an important element of innovative control strategies targeting transmission bottlenecks. The aim of this work was to describe the spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots in central Senegal and to identify the meteorological, environmental, and preventive factors that influence this variation.

Methods

This study analysed the weekly incidence of malaria cases recorded from 2008 to 2012 in 575 villages of central Senegal (total population approximately 500,000) as part of a trial of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Data on weekly rainfall and annual vegetation types were obtained for each village through remote sensing. The time series of weekly malaria incidence for the entire study area was divided into periods of high and low transmission using change-point analysis. Malaria hotspots were detected during each transmission period with the SaTScan method. The effects of rainfall, vegetation type, and SMC intervention on the spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots were assessed using a General Additive Mixed Model.

Results

The malaria incidence for the entire area varied between 0 and 115.34 cases/100,000 person weeks during the study period. During high transmission periods, the cumulative malaria incidence rate varied between 7.53 and 38.1 cases/100,000 person-weeks, and the number of hotspot villages varied between 62 and 147. During low transmission periods, the cumulative malaria incidence rate varied between 0.83 and 2.73 cases/100,000 person-weeks, and the number of hotspot villages varied between 10 and 43. Villages with SMC were less likely to be hotspots (OR = 0.48, IC95%: 0.33–0.68). The association between rainfall and hotspot status was non-linear and depended on both vegetation type and amount of rainfall. The association between village location in the study area and hotspot status was also shown.

Conclusion

In our study, malaria hotspots varied over space and time according to a combination of meteorological, environmental, and preventive factors. By taking into consideration the environmental and meteorological characteristics common to all hotspots, monitoring of these factors could lead targeted public health interventions at the local level. Moreover, spatial hotspots and foci of malaria persisting during LTPs need to be further addressed.

Trial registration

The data used in this work were obtained from a clinical trial registered on July 10, 2008 at www.clinicaltrials.gov under NCT00712374.

Geo-Epidemiology of Malaria at the Health Area Level, Dire Health District, Mali, 2013-2017

Background: According to the World Health Organization, there were more than 228 million cases of malaria globally in 2018, with 93% of cases occurring in Africa; in Mali, a 13% increase in the number of cases was observed between 2015 and 2018; this study aimed to evaluate the impact of meteorological and environmental factors on the geo-epidemiology of malaria in the health district of Dire, Mali. Methods: Meteorological and environmental variables were synthesized using principal component analysis and multiple correspondence analysis, the relationship between malaria incidence and synthetic indicators was determined using a multivariate general additive model; hotspots were detected by SaTScan. Results: Malaria incidence showed high inter and intra-annual variability; the period of high transmission lasted from September to February; health areas characterized by proximity to the river, propensity for flooding and high agricultural yield were the most at risk, with an incidence rate ratio of 2.21 with confidence intervals (95% CI: 1.85-2.58); malaria incidence in Dire declined from 120 to 20 cases per 10,000 person-weeks between 2013 and 2017. Conclusion: The identification of areas and periods of high transmission can help improve malaria control strategies.

Mass drug administrations with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and single low dose primaquine to eliminate Plasmodium falciparum have only a transient impact on Plasmodium vivax: Findings from randomised controlled trials

Background

Mass administrations of antimalarial drugs (MDA) have reduced the incidence and prevalence of P. falciparum infections in a trial in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Here we assess the impact of the MDA on P. vivax infections.

Methods

Between May 2013 and July 2017, four villages in each Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia and Lao PDR were selected based on high prevalence of P. falciparum infections. Eight of the 16 villages were randomly assigned to receive MDA consisting of three-monthly rounds of three-day courses of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and, except in Cambodia, a single low-dose of primaquine. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted at quarterly intervals to detect Plasmodium infections using ultrasensitive qPCR. The difference in the cumulative incidence between the groups was assessed through a discrete time survival approach, the difference in prevalence through a difference-in-difference analysis, and the difference in the number of participants with a recurrence of P. vivax infection through a mixed-effect logistic regression.

Results

3,790 (86%) residents in the intervention villages participated in at least one MDA round, of whom 2,520 (57%) participated in three rounds. The prevalence of P. vivax infections fell from 9.31% to 0.89% at month 3 but rebounded by six months to 5.81%. There was no evidence that the intervention reduced the cumulative incidence of P.vivax infections (95% confidence interval [CI] Odds ratio (OR): 0.29 to 1.36). Similarly, there was no evidence of MDA related reduction in the number of participants with at least one recurrent infection (OR: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.08 to 1.42).

Conclusion

MDA with schizontocidal drugs had a lasting effect on P. falciparum infections but only a transient effect on the prevalence of P. vivax infections. Radical cure with an 8-aminoquinoline will be needed for the rapid elimination of vivax malaria.

Extreme neonatal hyperbilirubinaemia in refugee and migrant populations: retrospective cohort

OBJECTIVE

To describe neonatal survival and long-term neurological outcome in neonatal hyperbilirubinaemia (NH) with extreme serum bilirubin (SBR) values.

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review, a one-off neurodevelopmental evaluation.

SETTING

Special care baby unit in a refugee camp and clinics for migrant populations at the Thailand-Myanmar border with phototherapy facilities but limited access to exchange transfusion (ET).

PATIENTS

Neonates ≥28 weeks of gestational age with extreme SBR values and/or acute neurological symptoms, neurodevelopment evaluation conducted at 23-97 months of age.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Neonatal mortality rate, prevalence of acute bilirubin encephalopathy (ABE) signs, prevalence of delayed development scores based on the Griffiths Mental Development Scale (GMDS).

RESULTS

From 2009 to 2014, 1946 neonates were diagnosed with jaundice; 129 (6.6%) had extreme SBR values during NH (extreme NH). In this group, the median peak SBR was 430 (IQR 371-487) µmol/L and the prevalence of ABE was 28.2%. Extreme NH-related mortality was 10.9% (14/129). Median percentile GMDS general score of 37 survivors of extreme NH was poor: 11 (2-42). 'Performance', 'practical reasoning' and 'hearing and language' domains were most affected. Four (10.8%) extreme NH survivors had normal development scores (≥50th centile). Two (5.4%) developed the most severe form of kernicterus spectrum disorders.

CONCLUSION

In this limited-resource setting, poor neonatal survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes, after extreme NH, were high. Early identification and adequate treatment of NH where ET is not readily available are key to minimising the risk of extreme SBR values or neurological symptoms.

Intracluster correlation coefficients in the Greater Mekong Subregion for sample size calculations of cluster randomized malaria trials

BACKGROUND

Sample size calculations for cluster randomized trials are a recognized methodological challenge for malaria research in pre-elimination settings. Positively correlated responses from the participants in the same cluster are a key feature in the estimated sample size required for a cluster randomized trial. The degree of correlation is measured by the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC) where a higher coefficient suggests a closer correlation hence less heterogeneity within clusters but more heterogeneity between clusters.

METHODS

Data on uPCR-detected Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections from a recent cluster randomized trial which aimed at interrupting malaria transmission through mass drug administrations were used to calculate the ICCs for prevalence and incidence of Plasmodium infections. The trial was conducted in four countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Cambodia. Exact and simulation approaches were used to estimate ICC values for both the prevalence and the incidence of parasitaemia. In addition, the latent variable approach to estimate ICCs for the prevalence was utilized.

RESULTS

The ICCs for prevalence ranged between 0.001 and 0.082 for all countries. The ICC from the combined 16 villages in the Greater Mekong Subregion were 0.26 and 0.21 for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively. The ICCs for incidence of parasitaemia ranged between 0.002 and 0.075 for Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam. There were very high ICCs for incidence in the range of 0.701 to 0.806 in Laos during follow-up.

CONCLUSION

ICC estimates can help researchers when designing malaria cluster randomized trials. A high variability in ICCs and hence sample size requirements between study sites was observed. Realistic sample size estimates for cluster randomized malaria trials in the Greater Mekong Subregion have to assume high between cluster heterogeneity and ICCs. This work focused on uPCR-detected infections; there remains a need to develop more ICC references for trials designed around prevalence and incidence of clinical outcomes. Adequately powered trials are critical to estimate the benefit of interventions to malaria in a reliable and reproducible fashion.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.govNCT01872702. Registered 7 June 2013. Retrospectively registered. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01872702.

Potential herd protection against Plasmodium falciparum infections conferred by mass antimalarial drug administrations

The global malaria burden has decreased over the last decade and many nations are attempting elimination. Asymptomatic malaria infections are not normally diagnosed or treated, posing a major hurdle for elimination efforts. One solution to this problem is mass drug administration (MDA), with success depending on adequate population participation. Here, we present a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of malaria episodes and asymptomatic infections in four villages undergoing MDA in Myanmar. In this study, individuals from neighborhoods with low MDA adherence had 2.85 times the odds of having a malaria episode post-MDA in comparison to those from high adherence neighborhoods, regardless of individual participation, suggesting a herd effect. High mosquito biting rates, living in a house with someone else with malaria, or having an asymptomatic malaria infection were also predictors of clinical episodes. Spatial clustering of non-adherence to MDA, even in villages with high overall participation, may frustrate elimination efforts.

Contribution of Asymptomatic Plasmodium Infections to the Transmission of Malaria in Kayin State, Myanmar

BACKGROUND

The objective of mass antimalarial drug administration (MDA) is to eliminate malaria rapidly by eliminating the asymptomatic malaria parasite reservoirs and interrupting transmission. In the Greater Mekong Subregion, where artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum is now widespread, MDA has been proposed as an elimination accelerator, but the contribution of asymptomatic infections to malaria transmission has been questioned. The impact of MDA on entomological indices has not been characterized previously.

METHODS

MDA was conducted in 4 villages in Kayin State (Myanmar). Malaria mosquito vectors were captured 3 months before, during, and 3 months after MDA, and their Plasmodium infections were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. The relationship between the entomological inoculation rate, the malaria prevalence in humans determined by ultrasensitive PCR, and MDA was characterized by generalized estimating equation regression.

RESULTS

Asymptomatic P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections were cleared by MDA. The P. vivax entomological inoculation rate was reduced by 12.5-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-100-fold), but the reservoir of asymptomatic P. vivax infections was reconstituted within 3 months, presumably because of relapses. This was coincident with a 5.3-fold (95% CI, 4.8-6.0-fold) increase in the vector infection rate.

CONCLUSION

Asymptomatic infections are a major source of malaria transmission in Southeast Asia.

The impact of targeted malaria elimination with mass drug administrations on falciparum malaria in Southeast Asia: A cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) threatens global malaria elimination efforts. Mass drug administration (MDA), the presumptive antimalarial treatment of an entire population to clear the subclinical parasite reservoir, is a strategy to accelerate malaria elimination. We report a cluster randomised trial to assess the effectiveness of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) MDA in reducing falciparum malaria incidence and prevalence in 16 remote village populations in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Lao People's Democratic Republic, where artemisinin resistance is prevalent.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

After establishing vector control and community-based case management and following intensive community engagement, we used restricted randomisation within village pairs to select 8 villages to receive early DP MDA and 8 villages as controls for 12 months, after which the control villages received deferred DP MDA. The MDA comprised 3 monthly rounds of 3 daily doses of DP and, except in Cambodia, a single low dose of primaquine. We conducted exhaustive cross-sectional surveys of the entire population of each village at quarterly intervals using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR to detect Plasmodium infections. The study was conducted between May 2013 and July 2017. The investigators randomised 16 villages that had a total of 8,445 residents at the start of the study. Of these 8,445 residents, 4,135 (49%) residents living in 8 villages, plus an additional 288 newcomers to the villages, were randomised to receive early MDA; 3,790 out of the 4,423 (86%) participated in at least 1 MDA round, and 2,520 out of the 4,423 (57%) participated in all 3 rounds. The primary outcome, P. falciparum prevalence by month 3 (M3), fell by 92% (from 5.1% [171/3,340] to 0.4% [12/2,828]) in early MDA villages and by 29% (from 7.2% [246/3,405] to 5.1% [155/3,057]) in control villages. Over the following 9 months, the P. falciparum prevalence increased to 3.3% (96/2,881) in early MDA villages and to 6.1% (128/2,101) in control villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.41 [95% CI 0.20 to 0.84]; p = 0.015). Individual protection was proportional to the number of completed MDA rounds. Of 221 participants with subclinical P. falciparum infections who participated in MDA and could be followed up, 207 (94%) cleared their infections, including 9 of 10 with artemisinin- and piperaquine-resistant infections. The DP MDAs were well tolerated; 6 severe adverse events were detected during the follow-up period, but none was attributable to the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Added to community-based basic malaria control measures, 3 monthly rounds of DP MDA reduced the incidence and prevalence of falciparum malaria over a 1-year period in areas affected by artemisinin resistance. P. falciparum infections returned during the follow-up period as the remaining infections spread and malaria was reintroduced from surrounding areas. Limitations of this study include a relatively small sample of villages, heterogeneity between villages, and mobility of villagers that may have limited the impact of the intervention. These results suggest that, if used as part of a comprehensive, well-organised, and well-resourced elimination programme, DP MDA can be a useful additional tool to accelerate malaria elimination.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01872702.

Spatiotemporal analysis of malaria for new sustainable control strategies

Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous through time and space, and mapping of this heterogeneity is necessary to better understand local dynamics. New targeted policies are needed as numerous countries have placed malaria elimination on their public health agenda for 2030. In this context, developing national health information systems and collecting information at sufficiently precise scales (at least at the 'week' and 'village' scales), is of strategic importance. In a recent study, Macharia et al. relied on extensive prevalence survey data to develop malaria risk maps for Kenya, including uncertainty assessments specifically designed to support decision-making by the National Malaria Control Program. Targeting local persistent transmission or epidemiologic changes is necessary to maintain efficient control, but also to deploy sustainable elimination strategies against identified transmission bottlenecks such as the reservoir of subpatent infections. Such decision-making tools are paramount to allocate resources based on sound scientific evidence and public health priorities.Please see related article: https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12936-018-2489-9 .

Indirect neonatal hyperbilirubinemia in hospitalized neonates on the Thai-Myanmar border: a review of neonatal medical records from 2009 to 2014

BACKGROUND

Indirect neonatal hyperbilirubinemia (INH) is a common neonatal disorder worldwide which can remain benign if prompt management is available. However there is a higher morbidity and mortality risk in settings with limited access to diagnosis and care. The manuscript describes the characteristics of neonates with INH, the burden of severe INH and identifies factors associated with severity in a resource-constrained setting.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective evaluation of anonymized records of neonates hospitalized on the Thai-Myanmar border. INH was defined according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines as 'moderate' if at least one serum bilirubin (SBR) value exceeded the phototherapy threshold and as 'severe' if above the exchange transfusion threshold.

RESULTS

Out of 2980 records reviewed, 1580 (53%) had INH within the first 14 days of life. INH was moderate in 87% (1368/1580) and severe in 13% (212/1580). From 2009 to 2011, the proportion of severe INH decreased from 37 to 15% and the mortality dropped from 10% (8/82) to 2% (7/449) coinciding with the implementation of standardized guidelines and light-emitting diode (LED) phototherapy. Severe INH was associated with: prematurity (< 32 weeks, Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 3.3; 95% CI 1.6-6.6 and 32 to 37 weeks, AOR 2.2; 95% CI 1.6-3.1), Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PD) (AOR 2.3; 95% CI 1.6-3.3), potential ABO incompatibility (AOR 1.5; 95% CI 1.0-2.2) and late presentation (AOR 1.8; 95% CI 1.3-2.6). The risk of developing severe INH and INH-related mortality significantly increased with each additional risk factor.

CONCLUSION

INH is an important cause of neonatal hospitalization on the Thai-Myanmar border. Risk factors for severity were similar to previous reports from Asia. Implementing standardized guidelines and appropriate treatment was successful in reducing mortality and severity. Accessing to basic neonatal care including SBR testing, LED phototherapy and G6PD screening can contribute to improve neonatal outcomes.

Effect of generalised access to early diagnosis and treatment and targeted mass drug administration on Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Eastern Myanmar: an observational study of a regional elimination programme

BACKGROUND

Potentially untreatable Plasmodium falciparum malaria threatens the Greater Mekong subregion. A previous series of pilot projects in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam suggested that mass drug administration was safe, and when added to provision of early diagnosis and treatment, could reduce the reservoir of P falciparum and interrupts transmission. We examined the effects of a scaled-up programme of this strategy in four townships of eastern Myanmar on the incidence of P falciparum malaria.

METHODS

The programme was implemented in the four townships of Myawaddy, Kawkareik, Hlaingbwe, and Hpapun in Kayin state, Myanmar. Increased access to early diagnosis and treatment of malaria was provided to all villages through community-based malaria posts equipped with rapid diagnostic tests, and treatment with artemether-lumefantrine plus single low-dose primaquine. Villages were identified as malarial hotspots (operationally defined as >40% malaria, of which 20% was P falciparum) with surveys using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR either randomly or targeted at villages where the incidence of clinical cases of P falciparum malaria remained high (ie, >100 cases per 1000 individuals per year) despite a functioning malaria post. During each survey, a 2 mL sample of venous blood was obtained from randomly selected adults. Hotspots received targeted mass drug administration with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus single-dose primaquine once per month for 3 consecutive months in addition to the malaria posts. The main outcome was the change in village incidence of clinical P falciparum malaria, quantified using a multivariate, generalised, additive multilevel model. Malaria prevalence was measured in the hotspots 12 months after mass drug administration.

FINDINGS

Between May 1, 2014, and April 30, 2017, 1222 malarial posts were opened, providing early diagnosis and treatment to an estimated 365 000 individuals. Incidence of P falciparum malaria decreased by 60 to 98% in the four townships. 272 prevalence surveys were undertaken and 69 hotspot villages were identified. By April 2017, 50 hotspots were treated with mass drug administration. Hotspot villages had a three times higher incidence of P falciparum at malarial posts than neighbouring villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2·7, 95% CI 1·8-4·4). Early diagnosis and treatment was associated with a significant decrease in P falciparum incidence in hotspots (IRR 0·82, 95% CI 0·76-0·88 per quarter) and in other villages (0·75, 0·73-0·78 per quarter). Mass drug administration was associated with a five-times decrease in P falciparum incidence within hotspot villages (IRR 0·19, 95% CI 0·13-0·26). By April, 2017, 965 villages (79%) of 1222 corresponding to 104 village tracts were free from P falciparum malaria for at least 6 months. The prevalence of wild-type genotype for K13 molecular markers of artemisinin resistance was stable over the three years (39%; 249/631).

INTERPRETATION

Providing early diagnosis and effective treatment substantially decreased village-level incidence of artemisinin-resistant P falciparum malaria in hard-to-reach, politically sensitive regions of eastern Myanmar. Targeted mass drug administration significantly reduced malaria incidence in hotspots. If these activities could proceed in all contiguous endemic areas in addition to standard control programmes already implemented, there is a possibility of subnational elimination of P falciparum.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Regional Artemisinin Initiative (Global Fund against AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), and the Wellcome Trust.

Scale up of a Plasmodium falciparum elimination program and surveillance system in Kayin State, Myanmar

Background: Myanmar has one of the largest malaria burdens in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). Throughout the GMS, Plasmodium falciparum parasites are increasingly resistant to artemisinin combination therapies. Given that there are no current alternative treatment therapies, one proposed solution to the threat of untreatable P. falciparum malaria is to eliminate the parasite from the region. Several small-scale elimination projects have been piloted in the GMS, including along the Myanmar-Thailand border. Following the success of the pilot elimination project along the Myanmar-Thailand border, there was a scale up to a broad area of Eastern Kayin State, Myanmar. Here we describe the establishment of the scale up elimination project in Easter Kayin State.

Methods: The scale up relied on geographic reconnaissance and a geographic information system, community engagement, generalized access to community-based early diagnosis and treatment, near real-time epidemiological surveillance, cross sectional malaria prevalence surveys and targeted mass drug administration in villages with high prevalence of P. falciparum malaria. Molecular markers of drug resistance were also monitored in individuals with symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.

Discussion: This protocol illustrates the establishment of an elimination project and operational research in a remote, rural area encompassing several armed groups, multiple political organizations and a near-absent health care infrastructure. The establishment of the project relied on a strong rapport with the target community, on-the-ground knowledge (through geographic surveys and community engagement), rapid decision making and an approach that was flexible enough to quickly adapt to a complex landscape. The elimination project is ongoing, now over three years in operation, and assessment of the impact of this operational research will follow. This project has relevance not only for other malaria elimination projects but also for operational research aimed at eliminating other diseases.

Scale up of a Plasmodium falciparum elimination program and surveillance system in Kayin State, Myanmar

Background: Myanmar has one of the largest malaria burdens in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). Throughout the GMS, Plasmodium falciparum parasites are increasingly resistant to artemisinin combination therapies. Given that there are no current alternative treatment therapies, one proposed solution to the threat of untreatable P. falciparum malaria is to eliminate the parasite from the region. Several small-scale elimination projects have been piloted in the GMS, including along the Myanmar-Thailand border. Following the success of the pilot elimination project along the Myanmar-Thailand border, there was a scale up to a broad area of Eastern Kayin State, Myanmar. Here we describe the establishment of the scale up elimination project in Easter Kayin State. Methods: The scale up relied on geographic reconnaissance and a geographic information system, community engagement, generalized access to community-based early diagnosis and treatment, near real-time epidemiological surveillance, cross sectional malaria prevalence surveys and targeted mass drug administration in villages with high prevalence of P. falciparum malaria. Molecular markers of drug resistance were also monitored in individuals with symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. Discussion: This protocol illustrates the establishment of an elimination project and operational research in a remote, rural area encompassing several armed groups, multiple political organizations and a near-absent health care infrastructure. The establishment of the project relied on a strong rapport with the target community, on-the-ground knowledge (through geographic surveys and community engagement), rapid decision making and an approach that was flexible enough to quickly adapt to a complex landscape. The elimination project is ongoing, now over three years in operation, and assessment of the impact of this operational research will follow. This project has relevance not only for other malaria elimination projects but also for operational research aimed at eliminating other diseases.

Multiple Introductions and Recent Spread of the Emerging Human Pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans across Africa

Buruli ulcer (BU) is an insidious neglected tropical disease. Cases are reported around the world but the rural regions of West and Central Africa are most affected. How BU is transmitted and spreads has remained a mystery, even though the causative agent, Mycobacterium ulcerans, has been known for more than 70 years. Here, using the tools of population genomics, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of M. ulcerans by comparing 165 isolates spanning 48 years and representing 11 endemic countries across Africa. The genetic diversity of African M. ulcerans was found to be restricted due to the bacterium's slow substitution rate coupled with its relatively recent origin. We identified two specific M. ulcerans lineages within the African continent, and inferred that M. ulcerans lineage Mu_A1 existed in Africa for several hundreds of years, unlike lineage Mu_A2, which was introduced much more recently, approximately during the 19th century. Additionally, we observed that specific M. ulcerans epidemic Mu_A1 clones were introduced during the same time period in the three hydrological basins that were well covered in our panel. The estimated time span of the introduction events coincides with the Neo-imperialism period, during which time the European colonial powers divided the African continent among themselves. Using this temporal association, and in the absence of a known BU reservoir or-vector on the continent, we postulate that the so-called "Scramble for Africa" played a significant role in the spread of the disease across the continent.

Safety and effectiveness of mass drug administration to accelerate elimination of artemisinin-resistant falciparum malaria: A pilot trial in four villages of Eastern Myanmar

Background: Artemisinin and partner drug-resistant falciparum malaria is expanding over the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS). Eliminating falciparum malaria in the GMS while drugs still retain enough efficacy could prevent global spread of antimalarial resistance. Eliminating malaria rapidly requires targeting the reservoir of asymptomatic parasite carriers.

This pilot trial aimed to evaluate the acceptability, safety, feasibility and effectiveness of mass-drug administration (MDA) in reducing malaria in four villages in Eastern Myanmar.

Methods: Villages with ≥30% malaria prevalence were selected. Long-lasting insecticidal bednets (LLINs) and access to malaria early diagnosis and treatment (EDT) were provided. Two villages received MDA immediately and two were followed for nine months pre-MDA. MDA consisted of a 3-day supervised course of  dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and single low-dose primaquine administered monthly for three months. Adverse events (AE) were monitored by interviews and consultations. Malaria prevalence was assessed by ultrasensitive PCR quarterly for 24 months. Symptomatic malaria incidence,entomological indices, and antimalarial resistance markers were monitored.

Results: MDA was well tolerated. There were no serious AE and mild to moderate AE were reported in 5.6%(212/3931) interviews. In the smaller villages, participation to three MDA courses was 61% and 57%, compared to 28% and 29% in the larger villages. Baseline prevalence was higher in intervention than in control villages (18.7% (95%CI=16.1-21.6) versus 6.8%(5.2-8.7), p<0.0001) whereas three months after starting MDA, prevalence was lower in intervention villages (0.4%(0.04-1.3) versus 2.7%(1.7-4.1), p=0.0014). After nine months the difference was no longer significant (2.0%(1.0-3.5) versus 0.9%(0.04-1.8), p=0.10). M0-M9 symptomatic falciparum incidence was similar between intervention and control. Before/after MDA comparisons showed that asymptomatic P. falciparum carriage and anopheline vector positivity decreased significantly whereas prevalence of the artemisinin-resistance molecular marker remained stable.

Conclusions: This MDA was safe and feasible, and, could accelerate elimination of P. falciparum in addition to EDT and LLINs when community participation was sufficient.

Combating multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Over the past 50 years, Plasmodium falciparum has developed resistance against all antimalarial drugs used against it: chloroquine, sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, quinine, piperaquine and mefloquine. More recently, resistance to the artemisinin derivatives and the resulting failure of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) are threatening all major gains made in malaria control. Each time resistance has developed progressively, with delayed clearance of parasites first emerging only in a few regions, increasing in prevalence and geographic range, and then ultimately resulting in the complete failure of that antimalarial. Drawing from this repeated historical chain of events, this article presents context-specific approaches for combating drug-resistant P. falciparum malaria. The approaches begin with a context of drug-sensitive parasites and focus on the prevention of the emergence of drug resistance. Next, the approaches address a scenario in which resistance has emerged and is increasing in prevalence and geographic extent, with interventions focused on disrupting transmission through vector control, early diagnosis and treatment, and the use of new combination therapies. Elimination is also presented as an approach for addressing the imminent failure of all available antimalarials. The final drug resistance context presented is one in which all available antimalarials have failed; leaving only personal protection and the use of new antimalarials (or new combinations of antimalarials) as a viable strategy for dealing with complete resistance. All effective strategies and contexts require a multipronged, holistic approach.

Limitations of malaria reactive case detection in an area of low and unstable transmission on the Myanmar-Thailand border

Background

Reactive case detection is an approach that has been proposed as a tool for malaria elimination in low-transmission settings. It is an intuitively justified approach based on the concept of space–time clustering of malaria cases. When an index malaria clinical case is detected, it triggers reactive screening and treatment in the index house and neighbouring houses. However, the efficacy of this approach at varying screening radii and malaria prevalence remains ill defined.

Methods

Data were obtained from a detailed demographic and geographic surveillance study in four villages on the Myanmar–Thailand border. Clinical cases were recorded at village malaria clinics and were linked back to patients’ residencies. These data were used to simulate the efficacy of reactive case detection for clinical cases using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT). Simulations took clinical cases in a given month and tabulated the number of cases that would have been detected in the following month at varying screening radii around the index houses. Simulations were run independently for both falciparum and vivax malaria. Each simulation of a reactive case detection effort was run in comparison with a strategy using random selection of houses for screening.

Results

In approximately half of the screenings for falciparum and 10% for vivax it would have been impossible to detect any malaria cases regardless of the screening strategy because the screening would have occurred during times when there were no cases. When geographically linked cases were present in the simulation, reactive case detection would have only been successful at detecting most malaria cases using larger screening radii (150-m radius and above). At this screening radius and above, reactive case detection does not perform better than random screening of an equal number of houses in the village. Screening within very small radii detects only a very small proportion of cases, but despite this low performance is better than random screening with the same sample size.

Conclusions

The results of these simulations indicate that reactive case detection for clinical cases using RDTs has limited ability in halting transmission in regions of low and unstable transmission. This is linked to high spatial heterogeneity of cases, acquisition of malaria infections outside the village, as well missing asymptomatic infections. When cases are few and sporadic, reactive case detection would result in major time and budgetary losses.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1631-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The role of early detection and treatment in malaria elimination

Falciparum malaria persists in hard-to-reach areas or demographic groups that are missed by conventional healthcare systems but could be reached by trained community members in a malaria post (MP). The main focus of a MP is to provide uninterrupted and rapid access to rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) too all inhabitants of a village. RDTs allow trained community members to perform malaria diagnosis accurately and prescribe appropriate treatment, reducing as much as possible any delay between the onset of fever and treatment. Early treatment with ACT and with a low-dose of primaquine prevents further transmission from human to mosquito. A functioning MP represents an essential component of any malaria elimination strategy. Implementing large-scale, high-coverage, community-based early diagnosis and treatment through MPs requires few technological innovations but relies on a very well structured organization able to train, supervise and supply MPs, to monitor activity and to perform strict malaria surveillance.

Seasonal Patterns of Buruli Ulcer Incidence, Central Africa, 2002-2012

To determine when risk for Buruli ulcer is highest, we examined seasonal patterns in a highly disease-endemic area of Cameroon during 2002–2012. Cases peaked in March, suggesting that risk is highest during the high rainy season. During and after this season, populations should increase protective behaviors, and case detection efforts should be intensified.

The suitability of laboratory-bred Anopheles cracens for the production of Plasmodium vivax sporozoites

BACKGROUND

A stenogamous colony of Anopheles cracens (A. dirus B) established 20 years ago in a Thai insectary proved susceptible to Plasmodium vivax. However, routine sporozoite production by feeding on field-collected blood samples has not been described. The setting-up of an A. cracens colony in an insectary on the Thai-Myanmar border and the process of using P. vivax field samples for the production of infectious sporozoites are described.

METHODS

The colony was started in 2012 from egg batches that were sent from the Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Chiang Mai, to the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit (SMRU), on wet filter paper in sealed Petri dishes. From May 2013 to December 2014, P. vivax-infected blood samples collected from patients seeking care at SMRU clinics were used for membrane feeding assays and sporozoite production.

RESULTS

Mosquitoes were fed on blood samples from 55 patients, and for 38 (69 %) this led to the production sporozoites. The average number of sporozoites obtained per mosquito was 26,112 (range 328-79,310). Gametocytaemia was not correlated with mosquito infectiousness (p = 0.82), or with the number of the sporozoites produced (Spearman's ρ = -0.016, p = 0.905). Infectiousness did not vary with the date of collection or the age of the patient. Mosquito survival was not correlated with sporozoite load (Spearman's ρ = 0.179, p = 0.282).

CONCLUSION

Consistent and routine P. vivax sporozoites production confirms that A. cracens is highly susceptible to P. vivax infection. Laboratory-bred colonies of this vector are suitable for experimental transmission protocols and thus constitute a valuable resource.

Topography and land cover of watersheds predicts the distribution of the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans in aquatic insects

Background

An understanding of the factors driving the distribution of pathogens is useful in preventing disease. Often we achieve this understanding at a local microhabitat scale; however the larger scale processes are often neglected. This can result in misleading inferences about the distribution of the pathogen, inhibiting our ability to manage the disease. One such disease is Buruli ulcer, an emerging neglected tropical disease afflicting many thousands in Africa, caused by the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Herein, we aim to describe the larger scale landscape process describing the distribution of M. ulcerans.

Methodology

Following extensive sampling of the community of aquatic macroinvertebrates in Cameroon, we select the 5 dominant insect Orders, and conduct an ecological niche model to describe how the distribution of M. ulcerans positive insects changes according to land cover and topography. We then explore the generalizability of the results by testing them against an independent dataset collected in a second endemic region, French Guiana.

Principal Findings

We find that the distribution of the bacterium in Cameroon is accurately described by the land cover and topography of the watershed, that there are notable seasonal differences in distribution, and that the Cameroon model does not predict the distribution of M. ulcerans in French Guiana.

Conclusions/Significance

Future studies of M. ulcerans would benefit from consideration of local structure of the local stream network in future sampling, and further work is needed on the reasons for notable differences in the distribution of this species from one region to another. This work represents a first step in the identification of large-scale environmental drivers of this species, for the purposes of disease risk mapping.

Many pathogens persist in the environment, and an understanding of where they are can assist in disease control, allowing us to identify areas of risk to local human populations. Herein, we use general linear models to describe the distribution of a particular environmental pathogen, Mycobacterium ulcerans, describing the landscape conditions correlated with the presence of this pathogen in local biota, and mapping the distribution of these habitats in a region of Cameroon, Africa. Our findings identify the importance of the watershed as a factor determining the distribution of the bacterium, where landscape conditions upstream of the sample site can influence the abundance of the bacterium in downstream sites. We find that the bacterium has notable seasonal changes in its distribution, between the wet and dry seasons, which may have implications for human health. We also discuss sensitivity of these models to extrapolation, finding that they work well in the African region and underperforming when extrapolated to another region in South America.

Ecological niche modelling of Hemipteran insects in Cameroon; the paradox of a vector-borne transmission for Mycobacterium ulcerans, the causative agent of Buruli ulcer

BACKGROUND

The mode of transmission of the emerging neglected disease Buruli ulcer is unknown. Several potential transmission pathways have been proposed, such as amoebae, or transmission through food webs. Several lines of evidence have suggested that biting aquatic insects, Naucoridae and Belostomatidae, may act as vectors, however this proposal remains controversial.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Herein, based on sampling in Cameroon, we construct an ecological niche model of these insects to describe their spatial distribution. We predict their distribution across West Africa, describe important environmental drivers of their abundance, and examine the correlation between their abundance and Buruli ulcer prevalence in the context of the Bradford-Hill guidelines.

RESULTS

We find a significant positive correlation between the abundance of the insects and the prevalence of Buruli ulcer. This correlation changes in space and time, it is significant in one Camerounese study region in (Akonolinga) and not other (Bankim). We discuss notable environmental differences between these regions.

CONCLUSION

We interpret the presence of, and change in, this correlation as evidence (though not proof) that these insects may be locally important in the environmental persistence, or transmission, of Mycobacterium. ulcerans. This is consistent with the idea of M. ulcerans as a pathogen transmitted by multiple modes of infection, the importance of any one pathway changing from region to region, depending on the local environmental conditions.