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Furkan HB, Ayman N, Uddin MJ. Hybrid neural network models for time series disease prediction confronted by spatiotemporal dependencies. MethodsX 2025; 14:103093. [PMID: 39802431 PMCID: PMC11719402 DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2024.103093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2024] [Accepted: 12/06/2024] [Indexed: 01/16/2025] Open
Abstract
In infectious disease outbreak modeling, there remains a gap in addressing spatiotemporal challenges present in established models. This study addresses this gap by evaluating four established hybrid neural network models for predicting influenza outbreaks. These models were analyzed by employing time series data from eight different countries to challenge the models with imposed spatial difficulties, in a month-on-month structure. The models' predictions were compared using MAPE, and RMSE, as well as graphical representations generated by employed models. The SARIMA-LSTM model excelled in achieving the lowest average RMSE score of 66.93 as well as reporting the lowest RMSE score for three out of eight countries studied. In this case also, GA-ConvLSTM-CNN model comes in second place with an average RMSE score of 68.46. Considering these results and the ability to follow the seasonal trends of the actual values, this study suggests the SARIMA-LSTM model to be more robust to spatiotemporal challenges compared with the other models under examination. This study•Evaluated established methods with unique imposed difficulty.•Addressed spatiotemporal characteristics of the data.•Proposed the SARIMA-LSTM model based on evaluation metrics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamed Bin Furkan
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh
| | - Nabila Ayman
- Department of Computer Science & Engineering, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Jamal Uddin
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh
- Department of General Educational and Development, Daffodil International University, Dhaka 1216, Bangladesh
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Xia C, Wang J, Wang Z, Shen J. Correlation between notifiable infectious diseases and transportation passenger traffic from 2013 to 2019 in mainland China. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:3023. [PMID: 39482638 PMCID: PMC11529239 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-20479-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2024] [Accepted: 10/21/2024] [Indexed: 11/03/2024] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Population mobility significantly contributes to the spread and prevalence of infectious diseases, posing a serious threat to public health safety and sustainable development across the globe. Understanding the impact of population mobility on the prevention and control of infectious diseases holds profound significance. METHODS In this study, we collected the data on the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in mainland China from 2013 to 2019, and analyzed the characteristics of notifiable infectious diseases, as well as their correlation with transportation passenger traffic. RESULTS Among 29 common notifiable infectious diseases, the incidence rate of intestinal diseases per 100,000 people was the highest (256.35 cases), while the mortality rate was the lowest (0.017 cases). The mortality rate per 100,000 people due to sexually transmitted and bloodborne diseases was the highest (1.154 cases). A significant linear correlation was noted between commercial passenger traffic and the number of cases of tuberculosis (r = 0.83, P = 0.022), hepatitis A (r = 0.87, P = 0.012), bacillary and amebic dysentery (r = 0.90, P = 0.006), typhoid/paratyphoid (r = 0.94, P = 0.002), leptospirosis (r = 0.90, P = 0.005), AIDS(r=-0.90, P = 0.006), gonorrhea (r=-0.79, P = 0.035) and scarlet fever (r=-0.85, P = 0.016). A significant linear correlation was noted between public transportation passenger traffic and the number of cases of measles (r = 0.94, P = 0.002), hepatitis A (r = 0.96, P = 0.001), parasitic and vector-borne diseases (r = 0.96, P = 0.001), brucellosis (r = 0.95, P = 0.001), leptospirosis (r = 0.88, P = 0.008), other infectious diarrhea (r = 0.86, P = 0.013) and gonorrhea (r = 0.84, P = 0.018). CONCLUSION The results of this study indicated that transportation passenger traffic significantly affected the incidence of infectious diseases, and reasonable management of passenger traffic was a potentially important means of prevention and control of infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cuiping Xia
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, China
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Anhui Public Health Clinical Center, Hefei, 230012, China
| | - Jinyu Wang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, China
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Anhui Public Health Clinical Center, Hefei, 230012, China
| | - Zhongxin Wang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, China.
| | - Jilu Shen
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, China.
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Anhui Public Health Clinical Center, Hefei, 230012, China.
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Tang X, Wang P, Huang S, Peng J, Zhang W, Shi X, Shi L, Zhong X, Lyu M, Zhou X, Linghu E. Trend of gastrointestinal and liver diseases in China: Results of the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019. Chin Med J (Engl) 2024; 137:2358-2368. [PMID: 39227355 PMCID: PMC11441872 DOI: 10.1097/cm9.0000000000002975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND China is one of the countries with the largest burden of gastrointestinal and liver diseases (GILD) in the world. The GILD constitutes various causes of mortality and disability. The study aimed to investigate the trend of GILD in China using the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources from 1990 to 2019. METHODS The data on the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for GILD in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the GBD 2019 data resources. Furthermore, the ranking of the main causes of deaths and DALYs, as well as the trends of ASMR, DALYs, years of life lost (YLLs), and years of life lost due to disability (YLDs) per 1,000,000 in GILD were reported. RESULTS The ASMR and DALYs for stomach cancer, liver cancer, and esophageal cancer, which ranked top three among the GILDs from 1990 to 2019, were gradually decreasing. Significant decreases in the ASMR and DALYs were found in diarrheal diseases and acute hepatitis (A, E, and C). However, noteworthy increases were found in those of colon and rectum cancer (CRC) and pancreatic cancer. Trend of DALYs, mortality, and YLLs rates for most of GILD were decreasing from 1990 to 2019, except the burden of CRC and pancreatic cancer with an increasing trend. The DALYs, mortality and YLLs of most GILD diseases showed decreasing trends from 1990 to 2019, except the burden of CRC and pancreatic cancer with an increasing trends. CONCLUSIONS The result of the GBD 2019 showed that the rates of most GILDs decreased in China; however, gastrointestinal and liver cancer, such as stomach cancer still held the top ranking. Furthermore, the shift from infectious diseases to non-communicable causes among GILD burden is occurring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaowei Tang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Ping Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Shu Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui County People’s Hospital, Huaian, Jiangsu 210004, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui People’s Hospital of Kangda College Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu 210004, China
| | - Jieyu Peng
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Xiaomin Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Lei Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Xiaolin Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Muhan Lyu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Xian Zhou
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, Sichuan 646000, China
| | - Enqiang Linghu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China
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Chen SQ, Cao Y, Ma JJ, Zhang XC, Hu SB. Construction and evaluation of a practical model for measuring health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) in China. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:1667. [PMID: 38909195 PMCID: PMC11193283 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-19112-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/12/2024] [Indexed: 06/24/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND HALE is now a regular strategic planning indicator for all levels of the Chinese government. However, HALE measurements necessitate comprehensive data collection and intricate technology. Therefore, effectively converting numerous diseases into the years lived with disability (YLD) rate is a significant challenge for HALE measurements. Our study aimed to construct a simple YLD rate measurement model with high applicability based on the current situation of actual data resources within China to address challenges in measuring HALE target values during planning. METHODS First, based on the Chinese YLD rate in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, Pearson correlation analysis, the global optimum method, etc., was utilized to screen the best predictor variables from the current Chinese data resources. Missing data for predictor variables were filled in via spline interpolation. Then, multiple linear regression models were fitted to construct the YLD rate measurement model. The Sullivan method was used to measure HALE. The Monte Carlo method was employed to generate 95% uncertainty intervals. Finally, model performances were assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). RESULTS A three-input-parameter model was constructed to measure the age-specific YLD rates by sex in China, directly using the incidence of infectious diseases, the incidence of chronic diseases among persons aged 15 and older, and the addition of an under-five mortality rate covariate. The total MAE and MAPE for the combined YLD rate were 0.0007 and 0.5949%, respectively. The MAE and MAPE of the combined HALE in the 0-year-old group were 0.0341 and 0.0526%, respectively. There were slightly fewer males (0.0197, 0.0311%) than females (0.0501, 0.0755%). CONCLUSION We constructed a high-accuracy model to measure the YLD rate in China by using three monitoring indicators from the Chinese national routine as predictor variables. The model provides a realistic and feasible solution for measuring HALE at the national and especially regional levels, considering limited data.
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Affiliation(s)
- San Qian Chen
- School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, 330006, PR China
- Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, PR China
| | - Yu Cao
- School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, 330006, PR China
- Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, PR China
| | - Jing Jie Ma
- School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, 330006, PR China
- Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, PR China
| | - Xing Chao Zhang
- School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, 330006, PR China
- Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, PR China
| | - Song Bo Hu
- School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, 330006, PR China.
- Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, PR China.
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Wang Y, Zhang X, Huang Y, Ma X. Palliative Care for Cancer Patients in Asia: Challenges and Countermeasures. Oncol Rev 2024; 17:11866. [PMID: 38293617 PMCID: PMC10824851 DOI: 10.3389/or.2023.11866] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 02/01/2024] Open
Abstract
With the increasing incidence of cancer worldwide, palliative care has become an effective intervention to relieve cancer patients' pain and improve their quality of life, although the present development of palliative medicine and hospice care in many Asian countries remains insufficient. To this end, this review comprehensively discussed the main challenges that influence the promotion of palliative medicine, from the perspective of both healthcare professionals and cancer patients. We further proposed and summarized a series of potentially effective countermeasures and solutions, including the shared decision-making modal, multidisciplinary professional cooperation, application of modern science and technology, standardization training for medical workers, personalized palliative treatment regimens, and others, aiming to improve the clinical quality of palliative care practice for cancer patients and promote the development of palliative medicine in Asian regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Wang
- Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Xinqing Zhang
- School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yilin Huang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Xiangyu Ma
- Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
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Deng LL, Han YJ, Li ZW, Wang DY, Chen T, Ren X, He GX. Epidemiological characteristics of seven notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in the mainland of China: an analysis of national surveillance data from 2017 to 2021. Infect Dis Poverty 2023; 12:99. [PMID: 37953290 PMCID: PMC10642048 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-023-01147-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/11/2023] [Indexed: 11/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) remain a pressing public health concern, posing a significant threat to the well-being and lives of individuals. This study delves into the incidence of seven primary RIDs during the period 2017-2021, aiming to gain deeper insights into their epidemiological characteristics for the purpose of enhancing control and prevention strategies. METHODS Data pertaining to seven notifiable RIDs, namely, seasonal influenza, pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), mumps, scarlet fever, pertussis, rubella and measles, in the mainland of China between 2017 and 2021 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS). Joinpoint regression software was utilized to analyze temporal trends, while SaTScan software with a Poisson probability model was used to assess seasonal and spatial patterns. RESULTS A total of 11,963,886 cases of the seven RIDs were reported during 2017-2021, and yielding a five-year average incidence rate of 170.73 per 100,000 individuals. Among these RIDs, seasonal influenza exhibited the highest average incidence rate (94.14 per 100,000), followed by PTB (55.52 per 100,000), mumps (15.16 per 100,000), scarlet fever (4.02 per 100,000), pertussis (1.10 per 100,000), rubella (0.59 per 100,000), and measles (0.21 per 100,000). Males experienced higher incidence rates across all seven RIDs. PTB incidence was notably elevated among farmers and individuals aged over 65, whereas the other RIDs primarily affected children and students under 15 years of age. The incidences of PTB and measles exhibited a declining trend from 2017 to 2021 (APC = -7.53%, P = 0.009; APC = -40.87%, P = 0.02), while the other five RIDs peaked in 2019. Concerning seasonal and spatial distribution, the seven RIDs displayed distinct characteristics, with variations observed for the same RIDs across different regions. The proportion of laboratory-confirmed cases fluctuated among the seven RIDs from 2017 to 2021, with measles and rubella exhibiting higher proportions and mumps and scarlet fever showing lower proportions. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of PTB and measles demonstrated a decrease in the mainland of China between 2017 and 2021, while the remaining five RIDs reached a peak in 2019. Overall, RIDs continue to pose a significant public health challenge. Urgent action is required to bolster capacity-building efforts and enhance control and prevention strategies for RIDs, taking into account regional disparities and epidemiological nuances. With the rapid advancement of high-tech solutions, the development and effective implementation of a digital/intelligent RIDs control and prevention system are imperative to facilitate precise surveillance, early warnings, and swift responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Le-le Deng
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Ya-Jun Han
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Zhuo-Wei Li
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Da-Yan Wang
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Tao Chen
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
| | - Xiang Ren
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning On Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
| | - Guang-Xue He
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
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Wang W, Weng F, Zhu J, Li Q, Wu X. An Analytical Approach for Temporal Infection Mapping and Composite Index Development. MATHEMATICS 2023; 11:4358. [DOI: 10.3390/math11204358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2025]
Abstract
Significant and composite indices for infectious disease can have implications for developing interventions and public health. This paper presents an investment for developing access to further analysis of the incidence of individual and multiple diseases. This research mainly comprises two steps: first, an automatic and reproducible procedure based on functional data analysis techniques was proposed for analyzing the dynamic properties of each disease; second, orthogonal transformation was adopted for the development of composite indices. Between 2000 and 2019, nineteen class B notifiable diseases in China were collected for this study from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The study facilitates the probing of underlying information about the dynamics from discrete incidence rates of each disease through the procedure, and it is also possible to obtain similarities and differences about diseases in detail by combining the derivative features. There has been great success in intervening in the majority of notifiable diseases in China, like bacterial or amebic dysentery and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, while more efforts are required for some diseases, like AIDS and virus hepatitis. The composite indices were able to reflect a more complex concept by combining individual incidences into a single value, providing a simultaneous reflection for multiple objects, and facilitating disease comparisons accordingly. For the notifiable diseases included in this study, there was superior management of gastro-intestinal infectious diseases and respiratory infectious diseases from the perspective of composite indices. This study developed a methodology for exploring the prevalent properties of infectious diseases. The development of effective and reliable analytical methods provides special insight into infectious diseases’ common dynamics and properties and has implications for the effective intervention of infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiwei Wang
- School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- Data Mining Research Center, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
| | - Futian Weng
- School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- Data Mining Research Center, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
| | - Jianping Zhu
- National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- Data Mining Research Center, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- School of Management, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
| | - Qiyuan Li
- School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
| | - Xiaolong Wu
- School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
- Data Mining Research Center, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
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Hu J, Li W, Peng Z, Chen Z, Shi Y, Zheng Y, Liang Q, Wu Y, Liu W, Shen W, Dai Q, Zhu L, Bao C, Zhu F, Chen F. Annual incidence and fatality rates of notifiable infectious diseases in southeast China from 1950 to 2022 and relationship to socioeconomic development. J Glob Health 2023; 13:04107. [PMID: 37681663 PMCID: PMC10486175 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.13.04107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Over the past 70 years, China has advanced significantly in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases while simultaneously undergoing a socioeconomic transformation, making it a useful source of data for analysing relationships between public health policy and the control of infectious diseases. Methods We collected data on the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases and associated fatalities in Jiangsu province in southeast China from the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases, and the Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. We compared data from different historical periods using descriptive statistical methods, joinpoint regression, and correlation analysis. Results During 1950-2022, 75 754 008 cases of 46 notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Jiangsu, with an average annual incidence was 1679.49 per 100 000 population and a fatality rate of 1.82 per 1000 persons. The incidence of classes A-B decreased (average annual percent change (AAPC) = -2.1) during the entire study period, while the incidence of class C increased (AAPC = 10.8) after 2004. The incidence of intestinal diseases (AAPC = -4.4) and vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (AAPC = -8.1) decreased rapidly, while the incidence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases (AAPC = 1.8) increased. The number of medical and health institutions and the per capita gross domestic product correlated negatively with the annual incidence of diseases in classes A-B, but not with fatality rates. Conclusions Although the annual incidence of many severe infectious diseases has decreased in Jiangsu since 1950, the incidence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases increased. Socioeconomic growth and sustainable investment in health systems are associated with better control of infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianli Hu
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Enteric Pathogenic Microbiology, Nanjing, China
| | - Wei Li
- General office, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, WuXi, China
| | - Zhihang Peng
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Ziying Chen
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yingying Shi
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Yanze Zheng
- Department of Acute infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Lianyungang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lianyungang, China
| | - Qi Liang
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Ying Wu
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Wendong Liu
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Wenqi Shen
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Qigang Dai
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
- Jiangsu Province Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Nanjing, China
| | - Liguo Zhu
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
- Jiangsu Province Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Nanjing, China
| | - Changjun Bao
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
- Jiangsu Province Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Nanjing, China
| | - Fengcai Zhu
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Enteric Pathogenic Microbiology, Nanjing, China
| | - Feng Chen
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- China International Cooperation Center for Environment and Human Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
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Luo Y, Ye X, Wang Y, Liu Y, Liang R, He P, Zheng X. Consequences of China's special send-down movement on infectious disease control in rural areas: a natural experiment. SSM Popul Health 2023; 23:101421. [PMID: 37252290 PMCID: PMC10209325 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2023] [Revised: 04/24/2023] [Accepted: 04/29/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Background China's send-down movement in the 1960s and 1970s, as a natural experiment, provides a unique opportunity to investigate the relationship between peers' dissemination of health literacy, community health workers, and infectious disease control in areas with weak health systems and inadequate human resources. To address the lack of studies on the health effects of the send-down movement, this study examined the associations between prenatal exposure to the send-down movement and infectious diseases in China. Methods We analyzed 188,253 adults born in 1956-1977 with rural hukou who participated in the Second National Sample Survey on Disability in 2006 across 734 counties of China. Difference-in-difference models were used to detect the effect of the send-down movement on infectious diseases. Infectious diseases were ascertained by using the combination of self- or family members' reports and on-site medical diagnosis of disabilities attributed to infectious disease by experienced specialists. The density of the relocated urban sent-down youth or "sent-down youths" (SDYs) in each county defined the intensity variable of the send-down movement. Results Individuals in SDY-receiving areas with increased intensity of prenatal exposure to the send-down movement had a decreased probability of infectious diseases (β = -0.0362, 95% CI: 0.0591, -0.0133) after controlling for a set of regional and cohort characteristics. This association was stronger in counties with more prevalent infectious diseases prior to the send-down movement (β = -0.0466, 95% CI: 0.0884, -0.0048) than in those with less prevalence (β = -0.0265, 95% CI: 0.0429, -0.010). No substantial differences were found across sex-specific groups or by strictness of send-down movement implementation. On average, prenatal exposure to the send-down movement corresponded to a decrease in the probability of infectious diseases in rural areas by 19.70%. Conclusions For areas with weak health systems, strengthening community health workers and promoting health literacy may be two key points to address the burden of infectious diseases. Increasing education and primary health care through peer-to-peer dissemination may contribute to the reduction of infectious disease prevalence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanan Luo
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Xin Ye
- Institute for Global Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- LSE-Fudan Research Centre for Global Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yiran Wang
- School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yunduo Liu
- School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Richard Liang
- School of Medicine, Stanford University, California, USA
| | - Ping He
- China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoying Zheng
- School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
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10
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Zhou Q, Hu J, Hu W, Li H, Lin GZ. Interrupted time series analysis using the ARIMA model of the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases in China. BMC Infect Dis 2023; 23:375. [PMID: 37316780 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08229-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/16/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in China is ongoing. Some studies have shown that the incidence of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases in 2020 decreased significantly compared with previous years. Interrupted time series (ITS) is a time series analysis method that evaluates the impact of intervention measures on outcomes and can control the original regression trend of outcomes before and after the intervention. This study aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases using ITS in China. METHODS National data on the incidence rate of communicable diseases in 2009-2021 were obtained from the National Health Commission website. Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was used to analyse the changes in the incidence rate of infectious diseases before and after the COVID-19 epidemic. RESULTS There was a significant short-term decline in the incidence rates of respiratory infectious diseases and enteric infectious diseases (step values of -29.828 and - 8.237, respectively), which remained at a low level for a long time after the decline. There was a short-term decline in the incidence rates of blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases (step = -3.638), which tended to recover to previous levels in the long term (ramp = 0.172). There was no significant change in the incidence rate of natural focus diseases or arboviral diseases before and after the epidemic. CONCLUSION The COVID-19 epidemic had strong short-term and long-term effects on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and short-term control effects on blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases. Our methods for the prevention and control of COVID-19 can be used for the prevention and control of other notifiable communicable diseases, especially respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qin Zhou
- Department of disease control and prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1 Qide Road, Baiyun district, 510440, 510440, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
| | - Junxian Hu
- Department of disease control and prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1 Qide Road, Baiyun district, 510440, 510440, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Wensui Hu
- Department of disease control and prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1 Qide Road, Baiyun district, 510440, 510440, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Hailin Li
- Department of disease control and prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1 Qide Road, Baiyun district, 510440, 510440, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Guo-Zhen Lin
- Department of disease control and prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1 Qide Road, Baiyun district, 510440, 510440, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
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11
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Zhu Y, Lin S, Dong S, Zhang C, Shi L, Ren X, Li Z, Wang L, Fang L. Incidence and trends of 17 notifiable bacterial infectious diseases in China, 2004-2019. BMC Infect Dis 2023; 23:273. [PMID: 37131164 PMCID: PMC10152418 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08194-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Certain bacterial infectious diseases are categorized as notifiable infectious diseases in China. Understanding the time-varying epidemiology of bacterial infections diseases can provide scientific evidence to inform prevention and control measures. METHODS Yearly incidence data for all 17 major notifiable bacterial infectious diseases (BIDs) at the province level were obtained from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in China between 2004 and 2019. Of them 16 BIDs are divided into four categories, respiratory transmitted diseases (RTDs, 6 diseases), direct contact/fecal-oral transmitted diseases (DCFTDs, 3 diseases), blood-borne/sexually transmitted diseases (BSTDs, 2 diseases), and zoonotic and vector-borne diseases (ZVDs, 5 diseases), and neonatal tetanus is excluded in the analysis. We characterized the demographic, temporal, and geographical features of the BIDs and examined their changing trends using a joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS During 2004‒2019, 28 779 thousand cases of BIDs were reported, with an annualized incidence rate of 134.00 per 100 000. RTDs were the most commonly reported BIDs, accounting for 57.02% of the cases (16 410 639/28 779 000). Average annual percent changes (AAPC) in incidence were - 1.98% for RTDs, - 11.66% for DCFTDs, 4.74% for BSTDs, and 4.46% for ZVDs. Females had a higher incidence of syphilis than males, and other BIDs were more commonly reported in males. Among 0-5-year-olds, the diseases with the largest increases in incidence were pertussis (15.17% AAPC) and scarlet fever (12.05%). Children and students had the highest incidence rates of scarlet fever, pertussis, meningococcal meningitis, and bacillary dysentery. Northwest China had the highest incidence of RTDs, while South and East China had the highest incidences of BSTDs. Laboratory confirmation of BIDs increased from 43.80 to 64.04% during the study period. CONCLUSIONS RTDs and DCFTDs decreased from 2004 to 2019 in China, while BSTDs and ZVDs increased during the same period. Great attention should be paid to BSTDs and ZVDs, active surveillance should be strengthened, and timely control measures should be adopted to reduce the incidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuliang Zhu
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, China CDC, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, China
- Central People's Hospital of Zhanjiang, Zhanjiang, China
- Field Epidemiology Training Program, China CDC, Beijing, China
| | - Shenghong Lin
- The State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Shuaibing Dong
- Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing Research Center for Preventive medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Cuihong Zhang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, China CDC, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, China
- Fuyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuyang, China
| | - Lusha Shi
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, China CDC, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, China
- Complex Systems Research Center, School of Mathematics Sciences, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Xiang Ren
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, China CDC, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, China
| | - Zhongjie Li
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, China CDC, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, China
| | - Liping Wang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, China CDC, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, China.
| | - Liqun Fang
- The State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, China.
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12
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Wang Y, Xie N, Wang Z, Ding S, Hu X, Wang K. Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the risk of viral hepatitis B incidence based on INLA in 14 prefectures of Xinjiang from 2004 to 2019. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2023; 20:10678-10693. [PMID: 37322955 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and risk factors of hepatitis B (HB) in 14 prefectures of Xinjiang, China, and to provide a relevant reference basis for the prevention and treatment of HB. Based on HB incidence data and risk factor indicators in 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2019, we explored the distribution characteristics of the risk of HB incidence using global trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis and established a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to identify the risk factors of HB and their spatio-temporal distribution to fit and extrapolate the Bayesian spatiotemporal model using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method. There was spatial autocorrelation in the risk of HB and an overall increasing trend from west to east and north to south. The natural growth rate, per capita GDP, number of students, and number of hospital beds per 10, 000 people were all significantly associated with the risk of HB incidence. From 2004 to 2019, the risk of HB increased annually in 14 prefectures in Xinjiang, with Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Urumqi City, Karamay City, and Bayangol Mongol Autonomous Prefecture having the highest rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yijia Wang
- College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Na Xie
- Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Urumqi 830054, China
| | - Zhe Wang
- Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Shuzhen Ding
- College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Xijian Hu
- College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Kai Wang
- College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830017, China
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13
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Wang L, Cheng J, Yu G, Zong Q, Zhai C, Hu W, Wang Y, Yan Z, Zhang T, Wang J, Zhang C, Su H, Zou Y. Impact of diurnal temperature range on other infectious diarrhea in Tongcheng, China, 2010-2019: a distributed lag non-linear analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:51089-51098. [PMID: 36808040 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-25992-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/14/2023] [Indexed: 04/16/2023]
Abstract
Our study aimed to quantify the exposure-lag-response effects of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) on other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Tongcheng city and examine the vulnerable populations. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and generalized additive model (GAM) were applied jointly to quantify the association between DTR and the daily number of OID cases compared with the median DTR. Stratified analysis was performed by gender, age, and seasons of onset. There are a total of 8231 cases during this decade. We observed a j-shaped relationship between DTR and OID, with a peak point at the maximum DTR (RR: 2.651, 95% CI: 1.320-5.323) compared to the median DTR. As DTR increased from 8.2 to 10.9 °C, we found the RRs started to decrease and then rise from day 0, and the minimum value occurred on day 7 (RR:1.003, 95% CI: 0.996-1.010). From stratified analysis, we observed that females and adults are more likely to be affected by high DTR significantly. In addition, the influence of DTR was different in cold and warm seasons. High DTR in warm seasons affects the number of OID daily cases, but no statistical significance was identified in cold seasons. This study suggests a significant relationship between high DTR and the incidence risk of OID.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linlin Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Jian Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Guanghui Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Qiqun Zong
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Chunxia Zhai
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Wanqin Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Yuhua Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Ziye Yan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Tingyu Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Junwu Wang
- Tongcheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tongcheng, China
| | - Chengye Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Yanfeng Zou
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81, Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
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14
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Deng L, Han Y, Wang J, Liu H, Li G, Wang D, He G. Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Mainland China from 2010 to 2018. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:3946. [PMID: 36900957 PMCID: PMC10002032 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20053946] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2022] [Revised: 02/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) pose threats to people's health, some of which are serious public health problems. The aim of our study was to explore epidemic situations regarding notifiable RIDs and the epidemiological characteristics of the six most common RIDs in mainland China. We first collected the surveillance data of all 12 statutory notifiable RIDs for 31 provinces in mainland China that reported between 2010 and 2018, and then the six most prevalent RIDs were selected to analyze their temporal, seasonal, spatiotemporal and population distribution characteristics. From 2010 to 2018, there were 13,985,040 notifiable cases and 25,548 deaths from RIDs in mainland China. The incidence rate of RIDs increased from 109.85/100,000 in 2010 to 140.85/100,000 in 2018. The mortality from RIDs ranged from 0.18/100,000 to 0.24/100,000. The most common RIDs in class B were pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), pertussis, and measles, while those in class C were seasonal influenza, mumps and rubella. From 2010 to 2018, the incidence rate of PTB and rubella decreased; however, pertussis and seasonal influenza increased, with irregular changes in measles and mumps. The mortality from PTB increased from 2015 to 2018, and the mortality from seasonal influenza changed irregularly. PTB was mainly prevalent among people over 15 years old, while the other five common RIDs mostly occurred among people younger than 15 years old. The incidence of the six common RIDs mostly occurred in winter and spring, and they were spatiotemporally clustered in different areas and periods. In conclusion, PTB, seasonal influenza and mumps remain as public health problems in China, suggesting that continuous government input, more precise interventions, and a high-tech digital/intelligent surveillance and warning system are required to rapidly identify emerging events and timely response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lele Deng
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Yajun Han
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Jinlong Wang
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Haican Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Guilian Li
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Dayan Wang
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Guangxue He
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
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15
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Zhao N, Wang S, Wang L, Shi Y, Jiang Y, Tseng TJ, Liu S, Chan TC, Zhang Z. Epidemiological features and trends in the mortality rates of 10 notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2020: Based on national surveillance. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1102747. [PMID: 36875408 PMCID: PMC9982089 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1102747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 02/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives The aim of this study is to describe, visualize, and compare the trends and epidemiological features of the mortality rates of 10 notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2020. Setting Data were obtained from the database of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System (NIDSS) and reports released by the National and local Health Commissions from 2004 to 2020. Spearman correlations and Joinpoint regression models were used to quantify the temporal trends of RIDs by calculating annual percentage changes (APCs) in the rates of mortality. Results The overall mortality rate of RIDs was stable across China from 2004 to 2020 (R = -0.38, P = 0.13), with an APC per year of -2.2% (95% CI: -4.6 to 0.3; P = 0.1000). However, the overall mortality rate of 10 RIDs in 2020 decreased by 31.80% (P = 0.006) compared to the previous 5 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. The highest mortality occurred in northwestern, western, and northern China. Tuberculosis was the leading cause of RID mortality, and mortality from tuberculosis was relatively stable throughout the 17 years (R = -0.36, P = 0.16), with an APC of -1.9% (95% CI -4.1 to 0.4, P = 0.1000). Seasonal influenza was the only disease for which mortality significantly increased (R = 0.73, P = 0.00089), with an APC of 29.70% (95% CI 16.60-44.40%; P = 0.0000). The highest yearly case fatality ratios (CFR) belong to avian influenza A H5N1 [687.5 per 1,000 (33/48)] and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis [90.5748 per 1,000 (1,010/11,151)]. The age-specific CFR of 10 RIDs was highest among people over 85 years old [13.6551 per 1,000 (2,353/172,316)] and was lowest among children younger than 10 years, particularly in 5-year-old children [0.0552 per 1,000 (58/1,051,178)]. Conclusions The mortality rates of 10 RIDs were relatively stable from 2004 to 2020 with significant differences among Chinese provinces and age groups. There was an increased mortality trend for seasonal influenza and concerted efforts are needed to reduce the mortality rate of seasonal influenza in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Na Zhao
- School of Ecology and Environment, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, China.,Collaborative Innovation Center of Recovery and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystem in Wanjiang Basin Co-founded by Anhui Province and Ministry of Education, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, China
| | - Supen Wang
- College of Life Sciences, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, China
| | - Lan Wang
- Department of Geriatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yingying Shi
- College of Life Sciences, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, China
| | - Yixin Jiang
- College of Life Sciences, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, China
| | - Tzu-Jung Tseng
- Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Shelan Liu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Ta-Chien Chan
- Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Zhiruo Zhang
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China.,School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
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16
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Du M, Wang R, Yuan J, Lv X, Yan W, Liu Q, Qin C, Xiang N, Zhu L, Liang W, Liu M, Liu J. Trends and disparities in 44 national notifiable infectious diseases in China: An analysis of national surveillance data from 2010 to 2019. J Med Virol 2023; 95:e28353. [PMID: 36443103 PMCID: PMC10107249 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.28353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2022] [Revised: 10/08/2022] [Accepted: 11/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Research assessing the changing epidemiology of infectious diseases in China after the implementation of new healthcare reform in 2009 was scarce. We aimed to get the latest trends and disparities of national notifiable infectious diseases by age, sex, province, and season in China from 2010 to 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths, incidence rate, and mortality of 44 national notifiable infectious diseases by sex, age groups, and provincial regions from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and official reports and divided into six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes and three classes (A-C) in this descriptive study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends of incidence and mortality rate. We calculated the concentration index to measure economic-related inequality. Segmented interrupted time-series analysis was used to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemic of notifiable infectious diseases. The trend of incidence rate on six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes was stable, while only mortality of sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases increased from 0.6466 per 100 000 population in 2010 to 1.5499 per 100 000 population in 2019 by 8.76% per year (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.88-10.68). There was a decreasing trend of incidence rate on Class-A infectious diseases (EAPC = -16.30%; 95% CI: -27.93 to -2.79) and Class-B infectious diseases (EAPC = -1.05%; 95% CI: -1.56 to -0.54), while an increasing trend on Class-C infectious diseases (EAPC = 6.22%; 95% CI: 2.13-10.48). For mortality, there was a decreasing trend on Class-C infectious diseases (EAPC = -14.76%; 95% CI: -23.46 to -5.07), and an increasing trend on Class-B infectious diseases (EAPC = 4.56%; 95% CI: 2.44-6.72). In 2019, the infectious diseases with the highest incidence rate and mortality were respiratory diseases (340.95 per 100 000 population), and sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases (1.5459 per 100 000 population), respectively. The greatest increasing trend of incidence rate was observed in seasonal influenza, from 4.83 per 100 000 population in 2010 to 253.36 per 100 000 population in 2019 by 45.16% per year (95% CI: 29.81-62.33), especially among females and children aged 0-4 years old. The top disease with the highest mortality was still AIDs, which had the highest average yearly mortality in 24 provinces from 2010 to 2019, and its incidence rate (EAPC = 14.99%; 95% CI: 8.75-21.59) and mortality (EAPC = 9.65; 95%CI: 7.71-11.63) both increased from 2010 to 2019, especially among people aged 44-59 years old and 60 or older. Male incidence rate and mortality were higher than females each year from 2010 to 2018 on 29 and 10 infectious diseases, respectively. Additionally, sex differences in the incidence and mortality of AIDS were becoming larger. The curve lay above the equality line, with the negative value of the concentration index, which indicated that economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of incidence rate and mortality of respiratory diseases (incidence rate: the concentration index = -0.063, p < 0.0001; mortality: the concentration index = -0.131, p < 0.001), sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases (incidence rate: the concentration index = -0.039, p = 0.0192; mortality: the concentration index = -0.207, p < 0.0001), and the inequality disadvantageous to the poor (pro-rich). Respiratory diseases (Dec-Jan), intestinal diseases (May-Jul), zoonotic infectious diseases (Mar-Jul), and vector-borne infectious diseases (Sep-Oct) had distinct seasonal epidemic patterns. In addition, segmented interrupted time-series analyses showed that, after adjusting for potential seasonality, autocorrelation, GDP per capita, number of primary medical institutions, and other factors, there was no significant impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the monthly incidence rate of six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes from 2018 to 2020 (all p > 0.05). The incidence rates of six kinds of infectious diseases were stable in the past decade, and incidence rates of Class-A and Class-B infectious diseases were decreasing because of comprehensive prevention and control measures and a strengthened health system after the implementation of the new healthcare reform in China since 2009. However, age, gender, regional, and economic disparities were still observed. Concerted efforts are needed to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza (especially among children aged 0-4 years old) and the mortality of AIDs (especially among people aged 44-59 years old and 60 or older). More attention should be paid to the disparities in the burden of infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Min Du
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Ruitong Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Jie Yuan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Xuan Lv
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Wenxin Yan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Qiao Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Chenyuan Qin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Nijuan Xiang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Lin Zhu
- Department of Health Policy, School of MedicineStanford UniversityStanfordCaliforniaUSA
| | - Wannian Liang
- Vanke School of Public HealthTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Min Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Jue Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina
- Institute for Global Health and DevelopmentPeking UniversityBeijingChina
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17
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Zhang M, Chen X, Wang W, Li Q, Xie Z. Genetic characteristics of Coxsackievirus A6 from children with hand, foot and mouth disease in Beijing, China, 2017-2019. INFECTION, GENETICS AND EVOLUTION : JOURNAL OF MOLECULAR EPIDEMIOLOGY AND EVOLUTIONARY GENETICS IN INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2022; 106:105378. [PMID: 36257478 DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2022.105378] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2022] [Revised: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 10/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
OBJECT To investigate the evolution and genetic characteristics of Coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) which acted as the predominant pathogen of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children in Beijing, China, 2017-2019. METHODS Throat swab specimens were collected for general Enterovirus (EV), enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and CVA16 detection by Real-time PCR. These general EV-positive samples were identified by semi-nested RT-PCR method and sequencing. The CVA6 VP1 gene and genome sequences were amplified and sequenced. The phylogenetic, variation and recombination analyses were performed. RESULTS A total of 1721 HFMD patients were enrolled in this study, with the male to female ratio of 1.62:1. The majority of cases were less than five years, which accounted for 73.50%. The overall detection rate of EV was 88.32% (1520/1721). A total of 8 EV types were identified, including CVA6 (55.86%), CVA16 (26.32%), EV-A71 (2.24%), CVA10 (2.04%), CVA4 (1.05%), CVA5 (0.59%), CVA2 (0.33%), and CVA8 (0.07%), while 175 (11.51%) EV were untyped. The main pathogen of HFMD was CVA6 from 2017 to 2018, while CVA6 and CVA16 were the main causative pathogens in 2019. The nucleotide and amino acid sequence identities of the 120 CVA6 complete VP1 gene sequences in this study were 91.2%-100.0% and 97.7%-100.0%, respectively. Compared with the prototype strain (Gdula) of CVA6, the nucleotide and amino acid sequence identities were 81.7%-84% and 94.7%-96.3%, respectively. The phylogenetic tree indicated that all 120 CVA6 sequences belonged to sub-genotype D3, while 119 CVA6 sequences belonged to evolutionary branch D3a, except one from 2017 belonged to D3b. Recombination analysis based on the complete genome sequences showed that potential multiple recombination may have occurred in 2B and 3D protein coding regions with EV-A114. CONCLUSIONS The main pathogens of HFMD were CVA6 and CVA16 in Beijing, China, 2017-2019; while these CVA6, as recombination strains, belonged to the D3a evolutionary branch.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meng Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, Laboratory of Infection and Virology, Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing 100045, China; Department of Pediatrics of Beijing, Boai Hospital at China Rehabilitation Research Centre, Rehabilitation School of Capital Medical University, Beijing 100068, China
| | - Xiangpeng Chen
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, Laboratory of Infection and Virology, Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing 100045, China
| | - Wei Wang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, Laboratory of Infection and Virology, Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing 100045, China
| | - Qi Li
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, Laboratory of Infection and Virology, Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing 100045, China
| | - Zhengde Xie
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection diseases, Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 2019RU016, Laboratory of Infection and Virology, Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing 100045, China.
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Ge Y, Wang K, Liu J, Xu L. Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics between 2004 and 2017 and prediction of the changing pattern of other infectious diarrhea (OID) under COVID-19 in China. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e31090. [PMID: 36281122 PMCID: PMC9592137 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000031090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
The study describes epidemiological features and transmission of other infectious diarrhea (OID) before and during the epidemic of COVID-19 in China, which lays a foundation for OID prevention and control. Incidence rate and mortality data of OID containing detailed epidemiological information such as date, age and region from 2004 to 2017, and total OID case number from 2018 to 2020 were obtained from the Data Center of China's Public Health Science and the National Bureau of Statistics' statistical yearbook. The Joinpoint regression model and Z test was used to analyze, while R language and ArcGIS 10.5 for drawing. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the influence of COVID-19 on OID. The OID incidence rate increased from 31.69/10 million in 2004 to 92.42/10 million in 2017, and the mortality rate decreased from 1.82/10,000 to 0.14/10,000. The male to female incidence ratio was 1.39:1 (P < .001). The patients' age showed a decreased trend with age (P < .001). The scattered children devoted the most OID incidence rate. The bimodal distribution of OID incidence was summer peak in northern China, 2 apparent peaks in central and eastern, and winter peak in southern. The autoregressive integrated moving average model predicted 1,406,557 in 2020, comparing the actual OID cases in 2020 to 1,062,277. Affected by the epidemic control measures of COVID-19, the number of OID cases declined by 32.4% (Absolute percentage error = 32.4%). The OID incidence rate in China continuously increased and showed a bimodal distribution in summer and winter with inconspicuous regional characteristics, gender and age susceptibility differences, and occupational differences. Meanwhile, COVID-19 significantly reduced OID incidence in 2020. The discoveries might bring a beneficial effect on OID prevention and control policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujie Ge
- Centre for Health Management and Policy Research, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Center for Health Economics Experiment and Public Policy Research, Jinan, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Economics and Policy Research, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Kai Wang
- Department of Research, The PLA Rocket Force Characteristic Medical Center, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Liu
- Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China
| | - Lingzhong Xu
- Centre for Health Management and Policy Research, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Center for Health Economics Experiment and Public Policy Research, Jinan, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Economics and Policy Research, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- * Correspondence: Lingzhong Xu, Center for Health Management and Policy Research, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Wenhuaxi Road 44#, Jinan, Shandong 250012, China (e-mail: )
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19
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Zheng J, Zhang N, Shen G, Liang F, Zhao Y, He X, Wang Y, He R, Chen W, Xue H, Shen Y, Fu Y, Zhang WH, Zhang L, Bhatt S, Mao Y, Zhu B. Spatiotemporal and Seasonal Trends of Class A and B Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China: A Retrospective Analysis (Preprint). JMIR Public Health Surveill 2022; 9:e42820. [PMID: 37103994 PMCID: PMC10176137 DOI: 10.2196/42820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2022] [Revised: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 03/29/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND China is the most populous country globally and has made significant achievements in the control of infectious diseases over the last decades. The 2003 SARS epidemic triggered the initiation of the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Since then, numerous studies have investigated the epidemiological features and trends of individual infectious diseases in China; however, few considered the changing spatiotemporal trends and seasonality of these infectious diseases over time. OBJECTIVE This study aims to systematically review the spatiotemporal trends and seasonal characteristics of class A and class B notifiable infectious diseases in China during 2005-2020. METHODS We extracted the incidence and mortality data of 8 types (27 diseases) of notifiable infectious diseases from the CISDCP. We used the Mann-Kendall and Sen's methods to investigate the diseases' temporal trends, Moran I statistic for their geographical distribution, and circular distribution analysis for their seasonality. RESULTS Between January 2005 and December 2020, 51,028,733 incident cases and 261,851 attributable deaths were recorded. Pertussis (P=.03), dengue fever (P=.01), brucellosis (P=.001), scarlet fever (P=.02), AIDS (P<.001), syphilis (P<.001), hepatitis C (P<.001) and hepatitis E (P=.04) exhibited significant upward trends. Furthermore, measles (P<.001), bacillary and amebic dysentery (P<.001), malaria (P=.04), dengue fever (P=.006), brucellosis (P=.03), and tuberculosis (P=.003) exhibited significant seasonal patterns. We observed marked disease burden-related geographic disparities and heterogeneities. Notably, high-risk areas for various infectious diseases have remained relatively unchanged since 2005. In particular, hemorrhagic fever and brucellosis were largely concentrated in Northeast China; neonatal tetanus, typhoid and paratyphoid, Japanese encephalitis, leptospirosis, and AIDS in Southwest China; BAD in North China; schistosomiasis in Central China; anthrax, tuberculosis, and hepatitis A in Northwest China; rabies in South China; and gonorrhea in East China. However, the geographical distribution of syphilis, scarlet fever, and hepatitis E drifted from coastal to inland provinces during 2005-2020. CONCLUSIONS The overall infectious disease burden in China is declining; however, hepatitis C and E, bacterial infections, and sexually transmitted infections continue to multiply, many of which have spread from coastal to inland provinces.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junyao Zheng
- China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
- School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ning Zhang
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Guoquan Shen
- School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
| | - Fengchao Liang
- School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yang Zhao
- The George Institute for Global Health, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
- WHO Collaborating Centre on Implementation Research for Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Xiaochen He
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Ying Wang
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Rongxin He
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Wenna Chen
- Center for Chinese Public Administration Research and School of Government, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hao Xue
- Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Yue Shen
- Laboratory for Urban Future, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yang Fu
- Department of public administration, School of Government, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
| | - Wei-Hong Zhang
- International Centre for Reproductive Health, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Lei Zhang
- China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China
- Artificial Intelligence and Modelling in Epidemiology Program, Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia
- Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Samir Bhatt
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ying Mao
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Bin Zhu
- School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
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20
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Zheng J, Shen G, Hu S, Han X, Zhu S, Liu J, He R, Zhang N, Hsieh CW, Xue H, Zhang B, Shen Y, Mao Y, Zhu B. Small-scale spatiotemporal epidemiology of notifiable infectious diseases in China: a systematic review. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:723. [PMID: 36064333 PMCID: PMC9442567 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07669-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The prevalence of infectious diseases remains one of the major challenges faced by the Chinese health sector. Policymakers have a tremendous interest in investigating the spatiotemporal epidemiology of infectious diseases. We aimed to review the small-scale (city level, county level, or below) spatiotemporal epidemiology of notifiable infectious diseases in China through a systematic review, thus summarizing the evidence to facilitate more effective prevention and control of the diseases. Methods We searched four English language databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science) and three Chinese databases (CNKI, WanFang, and SinoMed), for studies published between January 1, 2004 (the year in which China’s Internet-based disease reporting system was established) and December 31, 2021. Eligible works were small-scale spatial or spatiotemporal studies focusing on at least one notifiable infectious disease, with the entire territory of mainland China as the study area. Two independent reviewers completed the review process based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Results A total of 18,195 articles were identified, with 71 eligible for inclusion, focusing on 22 diseases. Thirty-one studies (43.66%) were analyzed using city-level data, 34 (47.89%) were analyzed using county-level data, and six (8.45%) used community or individual data. Approximately four-fifths (80.28%) of the studies visualized incidence using rate maps. Of these, 76.06% employed various spatial clustering methods to explore the spatial variations in the burden, with Moran’s I statistic being the most common. Of the studies, 40.85% explored risk factors, in which the geographically weighted regression model was the most commonly used method. Climate, socioeconomic factors, and population density were the three most considered factors. Conclusions Small-scale spatiotemporal epidemiology has been applied in studies on notifiable infectious diseases in China, involving spatiotemporal distribution and risk factors. Health authorities should improve prevention strategies and clarify the direction of future work in the field of infectious disease research in China. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07669-9.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junyao Zheng
- China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.,School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Guoquan Shen
- School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
| | - Siqi Hu
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Xinxin Han
- School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Siyu Zhu
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Jinlin Liu
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, China
| | - Rongxin He
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Ning Zhang
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK
| | - Chih-Wei Hsieh
- Department of Public Policy, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Hao Xue
- Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Bo Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yue Shen
- Laboratory for Urban Future, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China
| | - Ying Mao
- School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Bin Zhu
- School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China.
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21
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Yue T, Zhang P, Hao Y, He J, Zheng J, De Clercq E, Li G, Huang Y, Zheng F. Epidemiology and Clinical Outcomes of HIV Infection in South-Central China: A Retrospective Study From 2003 to 2018. Front Public Health 2022; 10:902537. [PMID: 35757651 PMCID: PMC9218543 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.902537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective HIV epidemiology in South-Central China is rarely reported. This study aims to characterize epidemiological and clinical features of HIV-infected patients in Hunan Province, located in South-Central China, for better management of HIV infections. Methods This retrospective study retrieved multi-center records of laboratory-confirmed HIV-infected patients in Hunan province. Information on HIV-associated mortality and antiretroviral therapies was also collected. Results Among 34,297 patients diagnosed with HIV infections from 2003 to 2018, 73.9% were males, 41.3% were older adults (≥50 years), and 71.2% were infected by heterosexual transmission. Despite a slow growth of new HIV infections in the overall population, annual percentages of HIV infections increased in older males (85.3% through heterosexual transmission) and young patients <30 years (39.9% through homosexual transmission). At baseline, serum levels of CD4+ T-cell counts were lower in older adults (191.0 cells/μl) than in young patients (294.6 cells/μl, p-value < 0.0001). A large proportion (47.2%, N = 16,165) of HIV-infected patients had advanced HIV disease (CD4+ T-cell counts < 200 cells/μl) from 2003 to 2018. All-cause mortality (57.0% due to AIDS-related illnesses) was reported among 4411 HIV-infected patients, including 2619 older adults. The 10-year survival rate was significantly lower in elderly males than in other patients (59.0 vs. 78.4%, p-value < 0.05). Conclusions Elderly males are prone to HIV infections with a high risk of HIV-associated fatality. Our findings support early prevention and critical care for elderly populations to control HIV infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tingting Yue
- Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Pan Zhang
- Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Yuantao Hao
- Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jianmei He
- Hunan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China
| | - Jun Zheng
- Hunan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China
| | - Erik De Clercq
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute for Medical Research, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Guangdi Li
- Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, China
- Hunan Children's Hospital, Changsha, China
| | - Yaxiong Huang
- Department of Infectious Disease, The First Hospital of Changsha, Changsha, China
| | - Fang Zheng
- Department of Infectious Disease, The First Hospital of Changsha, Changsha, China
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22
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Incidence trend and disease burden of seven vaccine-preventable diseases in Shandong province, China, 2013-2017: Findings from a population-based observational study. Vaccine X 2022; 10:100145. [PMID: 35243321 PMCID: PMC8867126 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2022.100145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 12/19/2021] [Accepted: 01/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Although vaccines provide a cost-effective solution to vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), the disease burden of VPDs is still very high in most parts of the world. Methods A population-based observational study was conducted in Shandong province, China, from 2013 to 2017, giving an insight into the epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of seven VPDs. The incidence trend was estimated using the Poisson regression model. The disease burden was calculated using the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results Most VPDs included in the China’s National Immunization Program had higher incidence density (ID) in inland cities. The ID of mumps decreased significantly, while herpes zoster increased (both P < 0.05). The top three causes of the disease burden as assessed with DALYs included tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and hepatitis B, with the rates of 72.21, 59.99, and 52.10 DALYs/100 000, respectively. The disease burden of influenza and herpes zoster were relatively high in people aged > 50 years, while highest DALYs of hepatitis B were found in young adults. Conclusion Inequalities in the vaccine coverage by geography, socio-economic status, and targeted population contribute to the increasing incidence and high burden of VPDs and call for renewed and sustained immunization strategies in China.
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Huang J, Wu H, Lin S, Lu L, Zheng J, Liu B, Kumar R, Li D. Spatial-temporal analysis of HIV/AIDS and syphilis in mainland China from 2007 to 2017. J Med Virol 2022; 94:3328-3337. [PMID: 35297065 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2022] [Revised: 03/10/2022] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
Human immune deficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and syphilis are the most common sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) worldwide, as well as in China. The objective of this study is to describe the trend of spatial and temporal variation of HIV/AIDS and syphilis in mainland China from 2007 to 2017. Stratified analysis was conducted according to age and the GDP per capita. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) was calculated and spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to evaluate the epidemiology and identify clusters. The morbidity of new HIV infection increased from 2.5034/100 000 in 2007 to 6.9247/100 000 in 2017, with an EAPC of 9.84 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.07-10.60). From 2007 to 2017, the morbidity of syphilis presented a significant upward trend from 15.8834/100 000 to 34.4867/100 000 (EAPC = 6.48, 95% CI: 4.23-8.73). The number of new HIV infections (205 084) and syphilis (921 279) were highest in the 20-30 years old group, where the incidence decreased with age over 20 years. In general, HIV and syphilis infection had the same incidence trend according to age and time stratification. The morbidity of new HIV infection was mainly reported from Xinjiang and southwestern China. As for syphilis, the highest was found in Zhejiang in Xinjiang and southeast coastal areas. Both HIV and syphilis infection showed a nonrandom positive correlation by Moran's I value. The High-High cluster areas of HIV infection were concentrated in southwestern and eastern China due to syphilis. A highly significant positive correlation was found between gross domestic product per capita and syphilis infection (p < 0.05) but was not associated with HIV infection. The incidence of AIDS/HIV and syphilis is increasing year by year, and a higher prevalence is found in younger individuals. More attention should be paid to HIV infection in the southwest, syphilis in southeast coastal areas, and both the two diseases in Xinjiang.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaofeng Huang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Haicong Wu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital, Fuzhou, China
| | - Su Lin
- Department of Hepatology, Hepatology Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Lingling Lu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Jiaolong Zheng
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital, Fuzhou, China
| | - Bang Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Rahul Kumar
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Duke-NUS academic Medical Centre, Changi General Hospital, Singapore
| | - Dongliang Li
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China.,Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital, Fuzhou, China
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Su X, Zheng L, Zhang H, Shen T, Liu Y, Hu X. Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Front Med (Lausanne) 2022; 9:842088. [PMID: 35360747 PMCID: PMC8962367 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.842088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2021] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Understanding the patterns and trends in the context of both incidence and mortality and anticipating future trends is important for viral hepatitis prevention, treatment, and guiding resource allocation in China. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive temporal analysis of acute viral hepatitis and its type using the most updated data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate the incidence and mortality of hepatitis from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions to 2030. Methods The age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) of viral hepatitis in China were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019). Trends of ASIR and ASMR for viral hepatitis were plotted using locally weighted regression (LOESS). We used joinpoint regression analysis to detect temporal changes and estimate the annual percent of change (APC) of each trend segment and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed to describe ASIR and ASMR trends between 1990 and 2019 and projections to 2030. Results In 1990, there were 67 million incident cases of acute viral hepatitis, which then decreased to 47 million incidence cases in 2019. Hepatitis A and hepatitis B account for the majority of acute viral hepatitis, and the most pronounced declines in hepatitis B (−48.7%) and hepatitis C (−39.0%) were observed between 1990 and 2019. The ASIR of overall acute viral hepatitis shows a persistent decline, with an average annual percent of change (AAPC) of −1.9% (95% CI: −1.9, −1.8) between 1990 and 2019. The trend of ASMR demonstrated a rapid decline between 1990 and 2005, followed by a slow decline until 2030. Conclusion Our study reveals favorable declining trends of incidence and mortality for acute viral hepatitis in China from 1990 and 2019, and these favorable trends are predicted to continue up to 2030. Despite the favorable trends observed, the absolute number of viral hepatitis, especially hepatitis A and B, is still substantial in China. A scaled-up vaccine campaign is still needed to tackle the large number of vaccine preventable hepatitis infections.
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Hu M, Feng Y, Li T, Zhao Y, Wang J, Xu C, Chen W. The unbalanced risk of pulmonary tuberculosis in China at subnational scale: A spatio-temporal analysis (Preprint). JMIR Public Health Surveill 2022; 8:e36242. [PMID: 35776442 PMCID: PMC9288096 DOI: 10.2196/36242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2022] [Revised: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Background China has one of the highest tuberculosis (TB) burdens in the world. However, the unbalanced spatial and temporal trends of TB risk at a fine level remain unclear. Objective We aimed to investigate the unbalanced risks of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) at different levels and how they evolved from both temporal and spatial aspects using PTB notification data from 2851 counties over a decade in China. Methods County-level notified PTB case data were collected from 2009 to 2018 in mainland China. A Bayesian hierarchical model was constructed to analyze the unbalanced spatiotemporal patterns of PTB notification rates during this period at subnational scales. The Gini coefficient was calculated to assess the inequality of the relative risk (RR) of PTB across counties. Results From 2009 to 2018, the number of notified PTB cases in mainland China decreased from 946,086 to 747,700. The average number of PTB cases in counties was 301 (SD 26) and the overall average notification rate was 60 (SD 6) per 100,000 people. There were obvious regional differences in the RRs for PTB (Gini coefficient 0.32, 95% CI 0.31-0.33). Xinjiang had the highest PTB notification rate, with a multiyear average of 155/100,000 (RR 2.3, 95% CI 1.6-2.8; P<.001), followed by Guizhou (117/100,000; RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3-1.9; P<.001) and Tibet (108/100,000; RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.1; P<.001). The RR for PTB showed a steady downward trend. Gansu (local trend [LT] 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.96; P<.001) and Shanxi (LT 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.96; P<.001) experienced the fastest declines. However, the RRs for PTB in the western region (such as counties in Xinjiang, Guizhou, and Tibet) were significantly higher than those in the eastern and central regions (P<.001), and the decline rate of the RR for PTB was lower than the overall level (P<.001). Conclusions PTB risk showed significant regional inequality among counties in China, and western China presented a high plateau of disease burden. Improvements in economic and medical service levels are required to boost PTB case detection and eventually reduce PTB risk in the whole country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maogui Hu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, China
| | - Yuqing Feng
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Tao Li
- National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yanlin Zhao
- National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jinfeng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, China
| | - Chengdong Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Chen
- National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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26
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Pan J, Wang Y, Cao L, Wang Y, Zhao Q, Tang S, Gong W, Guo L, Liu Z, Wen Z, Zheng B, Wang W. Impact of immunization programs on 11 childhood vaccine-preventable diseases in China: 1950-2018. Innovation (N Y) 2021; 2:100113. [PMID: 34557762 PMCID: PMC8454656 DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2021.100113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Accepted: 04/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
To evaluate the achievements of China's immunization program between 1950 and 2018, we chose 11 vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) as representative notifiable diseases and used annual surveillance data obtained between 1950 and 2018 to derive disease incidence and mortality trends. Quasi-Poisson and polynomial regression models were used to estimate the impacts of specific vaccine programs, and life-table methods were used to calculate the loss of life expectancy, years of life lost, and loss of working years. The total notification number for the 11 VPDs was 211,866,000 from 1950 to 2018. The greatest number occurred in 1959, with a total incidence of 1,723 per million persons. From 1978 to 2018, a substantial decline was observed in the incidence of major infectious diseases. The incidence of pertussis fell 98% from 126.35 to 1.58 per million, and the incidences of measles, meningococcal meningitis, and Japanese encephalitis fell 99%, 99%, and 98%, respectively. The regression models showed that most of the 11 diseases exhibited dramatic declines in morbidity after their integration into the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI), while varicella and paratyphoid fever, which were not integrated into the EPI, showed increased morbidity. From 1978 to 2018, the total life expectancy for the 11 VPDs increased by 0.79 years, and similar results were obtained for different age groups. China has had great success in controlling VPDs in recent decades, and improving vaccination coverage is a key aspect of controlling VPDs in China. 11 vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) were examined to measure the impact of the national immunization program Most of the 11 VPDs exhibited dramatic declines in morbidity rate after their integration into the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) From 1978 to 2018, the total life expectancy for the 11 VPDs increased by 0.79 years, and similar results were obtained for different age groups Improving vaccination coverage is a key aspect of controlling VPDs in China
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinhua Pan
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yesheng Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Lingsheng Cao
- National Immunization Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Ying Wang
- Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.,School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Shenglan Tang
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Wenfeng Gong
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Lei Guo
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Zhixi Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Zexuan Wen
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Bo Zheng
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Weibing Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.,School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
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27
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Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004-2019: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18115607. [PMID: 34073943 PMCID: PMC8197385 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18115607] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2021] [Revised: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.
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28
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Martínez-López N, Muñoz-Almagro C, Launes C, Navascués A, Imaz-Pérez M, Reina J, Romero MP, Calvo C, Ruiz-García M, Megias G, Valencia-Ramos J, Otero A, Cabrerizo M. Surveillance for Enteroviruses Associated with Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease, and Other Mucocutaneous Symptoms in Spain, 2006-2020. Viruses 2021; 13:v13050781. [PMID: 33924875 PMCID: PMC8146579 DOI: 10.3390/v13050781] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Revised: 04/20/2021] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a mild illness caused by enteroviruses (EV), although in some Asian countries, large outbreaks have been reported in the last 25 years, with a considerable incidence of neurological complications. This study describes epidemiological and clinical characteristics of EV infections involved in HFMD and other mucocutaneous symptoms from 2006 to 2020 in Spain. EV-positive samples from 368 patients were included. EV species A were identified in 85.1% of those typed EV. Coxsackievirus (CV) A6 was the prevalent serotype (60.9%), followed by EV-A71 (9.9%) and CVA16 (7.7%). Infections affected children (1-6 years old) mainly, and show seasonality with peaks in spring-summer and autumn. Clinical data indicated few cases of atypical HFMD as well as those with neurological complications (associated with the 2016 EV-A71 outbreak). Phylogenetic analysis of CVA6 VP1 sequences showed different sub-clusters circulating from 2010 to present. In conclusion, HFMD or exanthemas case reporting has increased in Spain in recent years, probably associated with an increase in circulation of CVA6, although they did not seem to show greater severity. However, EV surveillance in mucocutaneous manifestations should be improved to identify the emergence of new types or variants causing outbreaks and more severe pathologies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nieves Martínez-López
- Enterovirus Unit, National Centre for Microbiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28220 Madrid, Spain; (N.M.-L.); (A.O.)
| | - Carmen Muñoz-Almagro
- Microbiological and Paediatric Departments, Hospital San Joan de Déu, 08950 Barcelona, Spain; (C.M.-A.); (C.L.)
| | - Cristian Launes
- Microbiological and Paediatric Departments, Hospital San Joan de Déu, 08950 Barcelona, Spain; (C.M.-A.); (C.L.)
| | - Ana Navascués
- Microbiological Department, Complejo Hospitalario de Navarra, 31008 Navarra, Spain;
| | - Manuel Imaz-Pérez
- Microbiological Department, Hospital de Basurto, 48013 Bilbao, Spain;
| | - Jordi Reina
- Microbiological Department, Hospital Son Espases, 07020 Palma de Mallorca, Spain;
| | - María Pilar Romero
- Microbiological and Paediatric Departments, Hospital La Paz, 28220 Madrid, Spain; (M.P.R.); (C.C.)
| | - Cristina Calvo
- Microbiological and Paediatric Departments, Hospital La Paz, 28220 Madrid, Spain; (M.P.R.); (C.C.)
| | | | - Gregoria Megias
- Microbiological and Paediatrics Department, Complejo Hospitalario de Burgos, 09006 Burgos, Spain; (G.M.); (J.V.-R.)
| | - Juan Valencia-Ramos
- Microbiological and Paediatrics Department, Complejo Hospitalario de Burgos, 09006 Burgos, Spain; (G.M.); (J.V.-R.)
| | - Almudena Otero
- Enterovirus Unit, National Centre for Microbiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28220 Madrid, Spain; (N.M.-L.); (A.O.)
| | - María Cabrerizo
- Enterovirus Unit, National Centre for Microbiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28220 Madrid, Spain; (N.M.-L.); (A.O.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +34-918-223-663
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29
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Ehrenberg N, Ehrenberg JP, Fontes G, Gyapong M, Rocha EMM, Steinmann P, Utzinger J, Zhou XN, de Savigny D. Neglected tropical diseases as a barometer for progress in health systems in times of COVID-19. BMJ Glob Health 2021; 6:e004709. [PMID: 33849898 PMCID: PMC8050874 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2020] [Revised: 02/18/2021] [Accepted: 02/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Gilberto Fontes
- Laboratory of Parasitology, Central-West Campus, Federal University of São João del Rei, Divinopolis, Brazil
| | - Margaret Gyapong
- Centre for Health Policy and Implementation Research, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
| | - Eliana M M Rocha
- Laboratory of Parasitology, Central-West Campus, Federal University of São João del Rei, Divinopolis, Brazil
| | - Peter Steinmann
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Jürg Utzinger
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Xiao-Nong Zhou
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Don de Savigny
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
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30
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Luo Z, Wang W, Ding Y, Xie J, Lu J, Xue W, Chen Y, Wang R, Li X, Wu L. Epidemiological Characteristics of Infectious Diseases Among Travelers Between China and Foreign Countries Before and During the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Front Public Health 2021; 9:739828. [PMID: 34869153 PMCID: PMC8634889 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.739828] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: International travel during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic carries a certain magnitude of infection risk both to travelers and their destination, which may be difficult to assess in the early stage. The characteristics of common infectious diseases of tourists may provide some clues to identify the high-risk travelers and protect susceptible population. Methods: From among 48,444 travelers screened at Shanghai Port, we analyzed 577 travelers with 590 infectious diseases for age, sex, disease type, and World Health Organization (WHO) regions. We used the Joinpoint Regression Program to identify the average percent changes (APC) in the various trends among these individuals. Results: Hepatitis B, syphilis, and HIV were the most common infectious diseases in travelers entering China, and Hepatitis B, pulmonary tuberculosis, and syphilis in Chinese nationals traveling abroad (overall detection rates, 1.43 and 0.74%, respectively; P < 0.05). Africa (2.96%), the Americas (1.68%), and the Western Pacific (1.62%) exhibited the highest detection rates. This trend did not decrease since the COVID-19 pandemic (P > 0.05) and rather showed an upward trend with increasing age [APC 95% CI = 5.46 (3.41,7.56)%, P < 0.05]. However, there were no evident trends in monthly infection rates of travelers exiting and entering China from different WHO regions (all P > 0.05). Conclusion: Travelers always carry a transmission risk of common infectious diseases. It may be reasonable to adjust strategies for airport screening and quarantine according to the age and departure area of travelers to prevent and control new infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zheng Luo
- Department of Neurology, Shanghai University of Medicine & Health Sciences Affiliated Zhoupu Hospital, Shanghai, China
| | - Wei Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease Surveillance, Shanghai International Travel Healthcare Center, Shanghai, China
| | - Yibo Ding
- Department of Epidemiology, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jiaxin Xie
- Department of High Altitude Operational Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Jinhua Lu
- Department of Infectious Disease Surveillance, Shanghai International Travel Healthcare Center, Shanghai, China
| | - Wen Xue
- Department of Infectious Disease Surveillance, Shanghai International Travel Healthcare Center, Shanghai, China
| | - Yichen Chen
- Office of Scientific Research and Information Management, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China
- Office of Scientific Research and Information Management, Fudan University Pudong Institute of Preventive Medicine, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China
| | - Ruiping Wang
- Office of Clinical Research Center, Shanghai Skin Disease Hospital, Shanghai, China
- *Correspondence: Ruiping Wang
| | - Xiaopan Li
- Office of Scientific Research and Information Management, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China
- Office of Scientific Research and Information Management, Fudan University Pudong Institute of Preventive Medicine, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China
- Xiaopan Li
| | - Lile Wu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Lile Wu
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