Parallel evolution of influenza across multiple spatiotemporal scales

The consequences of SARS-CoV-2 within-host persistence

SARS-CoV-2 causes an acute respiratory tract infection that resolves in most people in less than a month. Yet some people with severely weakened immune systems fail to clear the virus, leading to persistent infections with high viral titres in the respiratory tract. In a subset of cases, persistent SARS-CoV-2 replication results in an accelerated accumulation of adaptive mutations that confer escape from neutralizing antibodies and enhance cellular infection. This may lead to the evolution of extensively mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants and introduce an element of chance into the timing of variant evolution, as variant formation may depend on evolution in a single person. Whether long COVID is also caused by persistence of replicating SARS-CoV-2 is controversial. One line of evidence is detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and proteins in different body compartments long after SARS-CoV-2 infection has cleared from the upper respiratory tract. However, thus far, no replication competent virus has been cultured from individuals with long COVID who are immunocompetent. In this Review, we consider mechanisms of viral persistence, intra-host evolution in persistent infections, the connection of persistent infections with SARS-CoV-2 variants and the possible role of SARS-CoV-2 persistence in long COVID. Understanding persistent infections may therefore resolve much of what is still unclear in COVID-19 pathophysiology, with possible implications for other emerging viruses.

Virus Evolution in Prolonged Infections of Immunocompromised Individuals

BACKGROUND

Many viruses can cause persistent infection and/or viral shedding in immunocompromised hosts. This is a well-described occurrence not only with SARS-CoV-2 but for many other viruses as well. Understanding how viruses evolve and mutate in these patients and the global impact of this phenomenon is critical as the immunocompromised population expands.

CONTENT

In this review, we provide an overview of populations at risk for prolonged viral shedding, clinical manifestations of persistent viral infection, and methods of assessing viral evolution. We then review the literature on viral evolution in immunocompromised patients across an array of RNA viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, norovirus, influenza, and poliovirus, and discuss the global implications of persistent viral infections in these hosts.

SUMMARY

There is significant evidence for accelerated viral evolution and accumulation of mutations in antigenic sites in immunocompromised hosts across many viral pathogens. However, the implications of this phenomenon are not clear; while there are rare reports of transmission of these variants, they have not clearly been shown to predict disease outbreaks or have significant global relevance. Emerging methods including wastewater monitoring may provide a more sophisticated understanding of the impact of variants that evolve in immunocompromised hosts on the wider host population.

Within-host genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 across animal species

Infectious disease transmission to different host species makes eradication very challenging and expands the diversity of evolutionary trajectories taken by the pathogen. Since the beginning of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has been transmitted from humans to many different animal species, in which viral variants of concern could potentially evolve. Previously, using available whole genome consensus sequences of SARS-CoV-2 from four commonly sampled animals (mink, deer, cat, and dog), we inferred similar numbers of transmission events from humans to each animal species. Using a genome-wide association study, we identified 26 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) that tend to occur in deer-more than any other animal-suggesting a high rate of viral adaptation to deer. The reasons for this rapid adaptive evolution remain unclear, but within-host evolution-the ultimate source of the viral diversity that transmits globally-could provide clues. Here, we quantify intra-host SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity across animal species and show that deer harbor more intra-host SNVs (iSNVs) than other animals, providing a larger pool of genetic diversity for natural selection to act upon. Mixed infections involving more than one viral lineage are unlikely to explain the higher diversity within deer. Rather, a combination of higher mutation rates, longer infections, and species-specific selective pressures are likely explanations. Combined with extensive deer-to-deer transmission, the high levels of within-deer viral diversity help explain the apparent rapid adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 to deer.

Quantifying the impact of vaccination on transmission and diversity of influenza A variants in pigs

Global evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus (IAV) are fundamentally driven by the extent of virus diversity generated, transmitted, and shaped in individual hosts. How vaccination affects the degree of IAV genetic diversity that can be transmitted and expanded in pigs is unknown. To evaluate the effect of vaccination on the transmission of genetically distinct IAV variants and their diversity after transmission in pigs, we examined the whole genome of IAV recovered from the nasal cavities of pigs vaccinated with different influenza immunization regimens after being infected simultaneously by H1N1 and H3N2 IAVs using a seeder pig model. We found that the seeder pigs harbored more diversified virus populations than the contact pigs. Among contact pigs, H3N2 and H1N1 viruses recovered from pigs vaccinated with a single dose of an unmatched modified live vaccine generally accumulated more extensive genetic mutations than non-vaccinated pigs. Furthermore, the non-sterilizing immunity elicited by the single-dose-modified live vaccine may have exerted positive selection on H1 antigenic regions as we detected significantly higher nonsynonymous but lower synonymous evolutionary rates in H1 antigenic regions than non-antigenic regions. In addition, we observed that the vaccinated pigs shared significantly less proportion of H3N2 variants with seeder pigs than unvaccinated pigs. These results indicated that vaccination might reduce the impact of transmitted influenza variants on the overall diversity of IAV populations harbored in recipient pigs and that within-host genetic selection of IAV is more likely to occur in pigs vaccinated with improperly matched vaccines.IMPORTANCEUnderstanding how vaccination shapes the diversity of influenza variants that transmit and propagate among pigs is essential for designing effective IAV surveillance and control programs. Current knowledge about the transmission of IAV variants has primarily been explored in humans during natural infection. However, how immunity elicited by improperly matched vaccines affects the degree of IAV genetic diversity that can be transmitted and expanded in pigs at the whole-genome level is unknown. We analyzed IAV sequences from samples collected daily from experimentally infected pigs vaccinated with various protocols in a field-represented IAV co-infection model. We found that vaccine-induced non-sterilizing immunity might promote genetic variation on the IAV genome and drive positive selection at antigenic sites during infection. In addition, a smaller proportion of H3N2 viral variants were shared between seeder pigs and vaccinated pigs, suggesting the influence of vaccination on shaping the virus genomic diversity in recipient pigs during the transmission events.

Influenza A virus within-host evolution and positive selection in a densely sampled household cohort over three seasons

While influenza A virus (IAV) antigenic drift has been documented globally, in experimental animal infections, and in immunocompromised hosts, positive selection has generally not been detected in acute infections. This is likely due to challenges in distinguishing selected rare mutations from sequencing error, a reliance on cross-sectional sampling, and/or the lack of formal tests of selection for individual sites. Here, we sequenced IAV populations from 346 serial, daily nasal swabs from 143 individuals collected over three influenza seasons in a household cohort. Viruses were sequenced in duplicate, and intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) were identified at a 0.5% frequency threshold. Within-host populations exhibited low diversity, with >75% mutations present at <2% frequency. Children (0-5 years) had marginally higher within-host evolutionary rates than adolescents (6-18 years) and adults (>18 years, 4.4 × 10-6 vs. 9.42 × 10-7 and 3.45 × 10-6, P < .001). Forty-five iSNVs had evidence of parallel evolution but were not over-represented in HA and NA. Several increased from minority to consensus level, with strong linkage among iSNVs across segments. A Wright-Fisher approximate Bayesian computational model identified positive selection at 23/256 loci (9%) in A(H3N2) specimens and 19/176 loci (11%) in A(H1N1)pdm09 specimens, and these were infrequently found in circulation. Overall, we found that within-host IAV populations were subject to genetic drift and purifying selection, with only subtle differences across seasons, subtypes, and age strata. Positive selection was rare and inconsistently detected.

Influenza A virus within-host evolution and positive selection in a densely sampled household cohort over three seasons

While influenza A virus (IAV) antigenic drift has been documented globally, in experimental animal infections, and in immunocompromised hosts, positive selection has generally not been detected in acute infections. This is likely due to challenges in distinguishing selected rare mutations from sequencing error, a reliance on cross-sectional sampling, and/or the lack of formal tests of selection for individual sites. Here, we sequenced IAV populations from 346 serial, daily nasal swabs from 143 individuals collected over three influenza seasons in a household cohort. Viruses were sequenced in duplicate, and intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNV) were identified at a 0.5% frequency threshold. Within-host populations were subject to purifying selection with >75% mutations present at <2% frequency. Children (0-5 years) had marginally higher within-host evolutionary rates than adolescents (6-18 years) and adults (>18 years, 4.4×10-6 vs. 9.42×10-7 and 3.45×10-6, p <0.001). Forty-five iSNV had evidence of parallel evolution, but were not overrepresented in HA and NA. Several increased from minority to consensus level, with strong linkage among iSNV across segments. A Wright Fisher Approximate Bayesian Computational model identified positive selection at 23/256 loci (9%) in A(H3N2) specimens and 19/176 loci (11%) in A(H1N1)pdm09 specimens, and these were infrequently found in circulation. Overall, we found that within-host IAV populations were subject to purifying selection and genetic drift, with only subtle differences across seasons, subtypes, and age strata. Positive selection was rare and inconsistently detected.

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection: significance and implications

SARS-CoV-2 causes persistent infections in a subset of individuals, which is a major clinical and public health problem that should be prioritised for further investigation for several reasons. First, persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection often goes unrecognised, and therefore might affect a substantial number of people, particularly immunocompromised individuals. Second, the formation of tissue reservoirs (including in non-respiratory tissues) might underlie the pathophysiology of the persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection and require new strategies for diagnosis and treatment. Finally, persistent SARS-CoV-2 replication, particularly in the setting of suboptimal immune responses, is a possible source of new, divergent virus variants that escape pre-existing immunity on the individual and population levels. Defining optimal diagnostic and treatment strategies for patients with persistent virus replication and monitoring viral evolution are therefore urgent medical and public health priorities.

Within-host influenza viral diversity in the pediatric population as a function of age, vaccine, and health status

Seasonal influenza virus predominantly evolves through antigenic drift, marked by the accumulation of mutations at antigenic sites. Because of antigenic drift, influenza vaccines are frequently updated, though their efficacy may still be limited due to strain mismatches. Despite the high levels of viral diversity observed across populations, most human studies reveal limited intrahost diversity, leaving the origin of population-level viral diversity unclear. Previous studies show host characteristics, such as immunity, might affect within-host viral evolution. Here we investigate influenza A viral diversity in children aged between 6 months and 18 years. Influenza virus evolution in children is less well characterized than in adults, yet may be associated with higher levels of viral diversity given the lower level of pre-existing immunity and longer durations of infection in children. We obtained influenza isolates from banked influenza A-positive nasopharyngeal swabs collected at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia during the 2017-18 influenza season. Using next-generation sequencing, we evaluated the population of influenza viruses present in each sample. We characterized within-host viral diversity using the number and frequency of intrahost single-nucleotide variants (iSNVs) detected in each sample. We related viral diversity to clinical metadata, including subjects' age, vaccination status, and comorbid conditions, as well as sample metadata such as virus strain and cycle threshold. Consistent with previous studies, most samples contained low levels of diversity with no clear association between the subjects' age, vaccine status, or health status. Further, there was no enrichment of iSNVs near known antigenic sites. Taken together, these findings are consistent with previous observations that the majority of intrahost influenza virus infection is characterized by low viral diversity without evidence of diversifying selection.

Within-Host Rhinovirus Evolution in Upper and Lower Respiratory Tract Highlights Capsid Variability and Mutation-Independent Compartmentalization

BACKGROUND

Rhinovirus (RV) infections can progress from the upper (URT) to lower (LRT) respiratory tract in immunocompromised individuals, causing high rates of fatal pneumonia. Little is known about how RV evolves within hosts during infection.

METHODS

We sequenced RV complete genomes from 12 hematopoietic cell transplant patients with infection for up to 190 days from both URT (nasal wash, NW) and LRT (bronchoalveolar lavage, BAL). Metagenomic and amplicon next-generation sequencing were used to track the emergence and evolution of intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNVs).

RESULTS

Identical RV intrahost populations in matched NW and BAL specimens indicated no genetic adaptation is required for RV to progress from URT to LRT. Coding iSNVs were 2.3-fold more prevalent in capsid over nonstructural genes. iSNVs modeled were significantly more likely to be found in capsid surface residues, but were not preferentially located in known RV-neutralizing antibody epitopes. Newly emergent, genotype-matched iSNV haplotypes from immunocompromised individuals in 2008-2010 could be detected in Seattle-area community RV sequences in 2020-2021.

CONCLUSIONS

RV infections in immunocompromised hosts can progress from URT to LRT with no specific evolutionary requirement. Capsid proteins carry the highest variability and emergent mutations can be detected in other, including future, RV sequences.

Parallel evolution of picobirnaviruses from distinct ancestral origins

IMPORTANCE

Picobirnaviruses (PBVs) are highly heterogeneous viruses encoding a capsid and RdRp. Detected in a wide variety of animals with and without disease, their association with gastrointestinal and respiratory infections, and consequently their public health importance, has rightly been questioned. Determining the "true" host of Picobirnavirus lies at the center of this debate, as evidence exists for them having both vertebrate and prokaryotic origins. Using integrated and time-stamped phylogenetic approaches, we show they are contemporaneous viruses descending from two different ancestors: avian Reovirus and fungal Partitivirus. The fungal PBV-R2 species emerged with a single segment (RdRp) until it acquired a capsid from vertebrate PBV-R1 and PBV-R3 species. Protein and RNA folding analyses revealed how the former came to resemble the latter over time. Thus, parallel evolution from disparate hosts has driven the adaptation and genetic diversification of the Picobirnaviridae family.

Co-evolution of immunity and seasonal influenza viruses

Seasonal influenza viruses cause recurring global epidemics by continually evolving to escape host immunity. The viral constraints and host immune responses that limit and drive the evolution of these viruses are increasingly well understood. However, it remains unclear how most of these advances improve the capacity to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza viruses on human health. In this Review, we synthesize recent progress made in understanding the interplay between the evolution of immunity induced by previous infections or vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses driven by the heterogeneous accumulation of antibody-mediated immunity in humans. We discuss the functional constraints that limit the evolution of the viruses, the within-host evolutionary processes that drive the emergence of new virus variants, as well as current and prospective options for influenza virus control, including the viral and immunological barriers that must be overcome to improve the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

SARS-CoV-2 shedding and evolution in immunocompromised hosts during the Omicron period: a multicenter prospective analysis

Background

Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infections in immunocompromised hosts may predict or source the emergence of highly mutated variants. The types of immunosuppression placing patients at highest risk for prolonged infection and associated intrahost viral evolution remain unclear.

Methods

Adults aged ≥18 years were enrolled at 5 hospitals and followed from 4/11/2022 - 2/1/2023. Eligible patients were SARS-CoV-2-positive in the previous 14 days and had a moderate or severely immunocompromising condition or treatment. Nasal specimens were tested by rRT-PCR every 2-4 weeks until negative in consecutive specimens. Positive specimens underwent viral culture and whole genome sequencing. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess factors associated with duration of infection.

Results

We enrolled 150 patients with: B cell malignancy or anti-B cell therapy (n=18), solid organ or hematopoietic stem cell transplant (SOT/HSCT) (n=59), AIDS (n=5), non-B cell malignancy (n=23), and autoimmune/autoinflammatory conditions (n=45). Thirty-eight (25%) were rRT-PCR-positive and 12 (8%) were culture-positive ≥21 days after initial SARS-CoV-2 detection or illness onset. Patients with B cell dysfunction had longer duration of rRT-PCR-positivity compared to those with autoimmune/autoinflammatory conditions (aHR 0.32, 95% CI 0.15-0.64). Consensus (>50% frequency) spike mutations were identified in 5 individuals who were rRT-PCR-positive >56 days; 61% were in the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Mutations shared by multiple individuals were rare (<5%) in global circulation.

Conclusions

In this cohort, prolonged replication-competent Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections were uncommon. Within-host evolutionary rates were similar across patients, but individuals with infections lasting >56 days accumulated spike mutations, which were distinct from those seen globally.

Within-host rhinovirus evolution in upper and lower respiratory tract highlights capsid variability and mutation-independent compartmentalization

Background

Human rhinovirus (HRV) infections can progress from the upper (URT) to lower (LRT) respiratory tract in immunocompromised individuals, causing high rates of fatal pneumonia. Little is known about how HRV evolves within hosts during infection.

Methods

We sequenced HRV complete genomes from 12 hematopoietic cell transplant patients with prolonged infection for up to 190 days from both URT (nasal wash, NW) and LRT (bronchoalveolar lavage, BAL) specimens. Metagenomic (mNGS) and amplicon-based NGS were used to study the emergence and evolution of intra-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs).

Results

Identical HRV intra-host populations in matched NW and BAL specimens indicated no genetic adaptation is required for HRV to progress from URT to LRT. Microbial composition between matched NW and BAL confirmed no cross-contamination during sampling procedure. Coding iSNVs were 2.3-fold more prevalent in capsid over non-structural genes, adjusted for length. iSNVs modeled onto HRV capsid structures were significantly more likely to be found in surface residues, but were not preferentially located in known HRV neutralizing antibody epitopes. Newly emergent, serotype-matched iSNV haplotypes from immunocompromised individuals from 2008-2010 could be detected in Seattle-area community HRV sequences from 2020-2021.

Conclusion

HRV infections in immunocompromised hosts can progress from URT to LRT with no specific evolutionary requirement. Capsid proteins carry the highest variability and emergent mutations can be detected in other, including future, HRV sequences.

Genotype-phenotype landscapes for immune-pathogen coevolution

Our immune systems constantly coevolve with the pathogens that challenge them, as pathogens adapt to evade our defense responses, with our immune repertoires shifting in turn. These coevolutionary dynamics take place across a vast and high-dimensional landscape of potential pathogen and immune receptor sequence variants. Mapping the relationship between these genotypes and the phenotypes that determine immune-pathogen interactions is crucial for understanding, predicting, and controlling disease. Here, we review recent developments applying high-throughput methods to create large libraries of immune receptor and pathogen protein sequence variants and measure relevant phenotypes. We describe several approaches that probe different regions of the high-dimensional sequence space and comment on how combinations of these methods may offer novel insight into immune-pathogen coevolution.

A Cold Case of Equine Influenza Disentangled with Nanopore Sequencing

Massive sequencing techniques have allowed us to develop straightforward approaches for the whole genome sequencing of viruses, including influenza viruses, generating information that is useful for improving the levels and dimensions of data analysis, even for archival samples. Using the Nanopore platform, we determined the whole genome sequence of an H3N8 equine influenza virus, identified from a 2005 outbreak in Apulia, Italy, whose origin had remained epidemiologically unexplained. The virus was tightly related (>99% at the nucleotide level) in all the genome segments to viruses identified in Poland in 2005–2008 and it was seemingly introduced locally with horse trading for the meat industry. In the phylogenetic analysis based on the eight genome segments, strain ITA/2005/horse/Bari was found to cluster with sub-lineage Florida 2 in the HA and M genes, whilst in the other genes it clustered with strains of the Eurasian lineage, revealing a multi-reassortant nature.

Estimating linkage disequilibrium and selection from allele frequency trajectories

Genetic sequences collected over time provide an exciting opportunity to study natural selection. In such studies, it is important to account for linkage disequilibrium to accurately measure selection and to distinguish between selection and other effects that can cause changes in allele frequencies, such as genetic hitchhiking or clonal interference. However, most high-throughput sequencing methods cannot directly measure linkage due to short-read lengths. Here we develop a simple method to estimate linkage disequilibrium from time-series allele frequencies. This reconstructed linkage information can then be combined with other inference methods to infer the fitness effects of individual mutations. Simulations show that our approach reliably outperforms inference that ignores linkage disequilibrium and, with sufficient sampling, performs similarly to inference using the true linkage information. We also introduce two regularization methods derived from random matrix theory that help to preserve its performance under limited sampling effects. Overall, our method enables the use of linkage-aware inference methods even for data sets where only allele frequency time series are available.

Antigenic escape is accelerated by the presence of immunocompromised hosts

The repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 escape mutants from host immunity has obstructed the containment of the current pandemic and poses a serious threat to humanity. Prolonged infection in immunocompromised patients has received increasing attention as a driver of immune escape, and accumulating evidence suggests that viral genomic diversity and emergence of immune-escape mutants are promoted in immunocompromised patients. However, because immunocompromised patients comprise a small proportion of the host population, whether they have a significant impact on antigenic evolution at the population level is unknown. We consider an evolutionary epidemiological model that combines antigenic evolution and epidemiological dynamics. Applying this model to a heterogeneous host population, we study the impact of immunocompromised hosts on the evolutionary dynamics of pathogen antigenic escape from host immunity. We derived analytical formulae of the speed of antigenic evolution in heterogeneous host populations and found that even a small number of immunocompromised hosts in the population significantly accelerates antigenic evolution. Our results demonstrate that immunocompromised hosts play a key role in viral adaptation at the population level and emphasize the importance of critical care and surveillance of immunocompromised hosts.

Inferring Epistasis from Genetic Time-series Data

Epistasis refers to fitness or functional effects of mutations that depend on the sequence background in which these mutations arise. Epistasis is prevalent in nature, including populations of viruses, bacteria, and cancers, and can contribute to the evolution of drug resistance and immune escape. However, it is difficult to directly estimate epistatic effects from sampled observations of a population. At present, there are very few methods that can disentangle the effects of selection (including epistasis), mutation, recombination, genetic drift, and genetic linkage in evolving populations. Here we develop a method to infer epistasis, along with the fitness effects of individual mutations, from observed evolutionary histories. Simulations show that we can accurately infer pairwise epistatic interactions provided that there is sufficient genetic diversity in the data. Our method also allows us to identify which fitness parameters can be reliably inferred from a particular data set and which ones are unidentifiable. Our approach therefore allows for the inference of more complex models of selection from time-series genetic data, while also quantifying uncertainty in the inferred parameters.

A general approach to identify low-frequency variants within influenza samples collected during routine surveillance

Influenza viruses exhibit considerable diversity between hosts. Additionally, different quasispecies can be found within the same host. High-throughput sequencing technologies can be used to sequence a patient-derived virus population at sufficient depths to identify low-frequency variants (LFV) present in a quasispecies, but many challenges remain for reliable LFV detection because of experimental errors introduced during sample preparation and sequencing. High genomic copy numbers and extensive sequencing depths are required to differentiate false positive from real LFV, especially at low allelic frequencies (AFs). This study proposes a general approach for identifying LFV in patient-derived samples obtained during routine surveillance. Firstly, validated thresholds were determined for LFV detection, whilst balancing both the cost and feasibility of reliable LFV detection in clinical samples. Using a genetically well-defined population of influenza A viruses, thresholds of at least 10⁴ genomes per microlitre and AF of ≥5 % were established as detection limits. Secondly, a subset of 59 retained influenza A (H3N2) samples from the 2016-2017 Belgian influenza season was composed. Thirdly, as a proof of concept for the added value of LFV for routine influenza monitoring, potential associations between patient data and whole genome sequencing data were investigated. A significant association was found between a high prevalence of LFV and disease severity. This study provides a general methodology for influenza LFV detection, which can also be adopted by other national influenza reference centres and for other viruses such as SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, this study suggests that the current relevance of LFV for routine influenza surveillance programmes might be undervalued.

Influenza A virus undergoes compartmentalized replication in vivo dominated by stochastic bottlenecks

Transmission of influenza A viruses (IAV) between hosts is subject to numerous physical and biological barriers that impose genetic bottlenecks, constraining viral diversity and adaptation. The bottlenecks within hosts and their potential impacts on evolutionary pathways taken during infection are poorly understood. To address this, we created highly diverse IAV libraries bearing molecular barcodes on two gene segments, enabling high-resolution tracking and quantification of unique virus lineages within hosts. Here we show that IAV infection in lungs is characterized by multiple within-host bottlenecks that result in "islands" of infection in lung lobes, each with genetically distinct populations. We perform site-specific inoculation of barcoded IAV in the upper respiratory tract of ferrets and track viral diversity as infection spreads to the trachea and lungs. We detect extensive compartmentalization of discrete populations within lung lobes. Bottleneck events and localized replication stochastically sample individual viruses from the upper respiratory tract or the trachea that become the dominant genotype in a particular lobe. These populations are shaped strongly by founder effects, with limited evidence for positive selection. The segregated sites of replication highlight the jackpot-style events that contribute to within-host influenza virus evolution and may account for low rates of intrahost adaptation.

Immuno-epidemiology and the predictability of viral evolution

Understanding viral evolution depends on a synthesis of evolutionary biology and immuno-epidemiology.

System Complexity in Influenza Infection and Vaccination: Effects upon Excess Winter Mortality

Unexpected outcomes are usually associated with interventions in complex systems. Excess winter mortality (EWM) is a measure of the net effect of all competing forces operating each winter, including influenza(s) and non-influenza pathogens. In this study over 2400 data points from 97 countries are used to look at the net effect of influenza vaccination rates in the elderly aged 65+ against excess winter mortality (EWM) each year from the winter of 1980/81 through to 2019/20. The observed international net effect of influenza vaccination ranges from a 7.8% reduction in EWM estimated at 100% elderly vaccination for the winter of 1989/90 down to a 9.3% increase in EWM for the winter of 2018/19. The average was only a 0.3% reduction in EWM for a 100% vaccinated elderly population. Such outcomes do not contradict the known protective effect of influenza vaccination against influenza mortality per se—they merely indicate that multiple complex interactions lie behind the observed net effect against all-causes (including all pathogen causes) of winter mortality. This range from net benefit to net disbenefit is proposed to arise from system complexity which includes environmental conditions (weather, solar cycles), the antigenic distance between constantly emerging circulating influenza clades and the influenza vaccine makeup, vaccination timing, pathogen interference, and human immune diversity (including individual history of host-virus, host-antigen interactions and immunosenescence) all interacting to give the observed outcomes each year. We propose that a narrow focus on influenza vaccine effectiveness misses the far wider complexity of winter mortality. Influenza vaccines may need to be formulated in different ways, and perhaps administered over a shorter timeframe to avoid the unanticipated adverse net outcomes seen in around 40% of years.

Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination

Annual epidemics of seasonal influenza cause hundreds of thousands of deaths, high levels of morbidity, and substantial economic loss. Yet, global influenza circulation has been heavily suppressed by public health measures and travel restrictions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the influenza B/Yamagata lineage has not been conclusively detected since April 2020, and A(H3N2), A(H1N1), and B/Victoria viruses have since circulated with considerably less genetic diversity. Travel restrictions have largely confined regional outbreaks of A(H3N2) to South and Southeast Asia, B/Victoria to China, and A(H1N1) to West Africa. Seasonal influenza transmission lineages continue to perish globally, except in these select hotspots, which will likely seed future epidemics. Waning population immunity and sporadic case detection will further challenge influenza vaccine strain selection and epidemic control. We offer a perspective on the potential short- and long-term evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza and discuss potential consequences and mitigation strategies as global travel gradually returns to pre-pandemic levels.

Comparative Population Genetics in the Human Gut Microbiome

Genetic variation in the human gut microbiome is responsible for conferring a number of crucial phenotypes like the ability to digest food and metabolize drugs. Yet, our understanding of how this variation arises and is maintained remains relatively poor. Thus, the microbiome remains a largely untapped resource, as the large number of coexisting species in the microbiome presents a unique opportunity to compare and contrast evolutionary processes across species to identify universal trends and deviations. Here we outline features of the human gut microbiome that, while not unique in isolation, as an assemblage make it a system with unparalleled potential for comparative population genomics studies. We consciously take a broad view of comparative population genetics, emphasizing how sampling a large number of species allows researchers to identify universal evolutionary dynamics in addition to new genes, which can then be leveraged to identify exceptional species that deviate from general patterns. To highlight the potential power of comparative population genetics in the microbiome, we reanalyze patterns of purifying selection across ∼40 prevalent species in the human gut microbiome to identify intriguing trends which highlight functional categories in the microbiome that may be under more or less constraint.

Evolution of viral variants in remdesivir-treated and untreated SARS-CoV-2-infected pediatrics patients

Detailed information on intrahost viral evolution in SARS-CoV-2 with and without treatment is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from the upper respiratory tract of nine hospitalized children, three of whom were treated with remdesivir, revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral load in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain without any evidence of drug resistance found. Reduced levels of subgenomic RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. These likely arose from within-host evolution, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Although our dataset is small, observed sample-to-sample heterogeneity in variant frequencies across four of nine patients suggests the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalization could compromise the penetration of remdesivir into the lung, limiting the drugs in vivo efficacy, as has been observed in other lung infections.

Viral intra-host evolution in immunocompetent children contributes to human norovirus diversification at the global scale

Norovirus is a major cause of acute gastroenteritis. Human noroviruses present >30 different genotypes, with a single genotype (GII.4) predominating worldwide. Concurrent outbreaks of norovirus are often associated with the emergence of new viruses. While different hypotheses have been presented, the source of new mutations in noroviruses is still unknown. In this study, we applied high-resolution sequencing to determine the intra-host viral diversity presented by noroviruses during the acute and shedding phase of infection in children. Profiling viral intra-host diversification at nearly full genome level indicated that GII.4 viruses presented dynamic intra-host variation, while non-GII.4 viruses presented minimal variation throughout the infection. Notably, the intra-host genetic variation during the shedding phase recapitulates the genetic diversity observed at the global level, particularly those mapping at the VP1 antigenic sites. Thus the intra-host evolution in healthy children explains the source of norovirus mutations that results in diversification at the global scale.

Functional evaluation of the P681H mutation on the proteolytic activation the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) spike

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the agent causing the COVID-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 (Alpha), a WHO variant of concern (VOC) first identified in the UK in late 2020, contains several mutations including P681H in the spike S1/S2 cleavage site, which is predicted to increase cleavage by furin, potentially impacting the viral cell entry. Here, we studied the role of the P681H mutation in B.1.1.7 cell entry. We performed assays using fluorogenic peptides mimicking the Wuhan-Hu-1 and B.1.1.7 S1/S2 sequence and observed no significant difference in furin cleavage. Functional assays using pseudoparticles harboring SARS-CoV-2 spikes and cell-to-cell fusion assays demonstrated no differences between Wuhan-Hu-1, B.1.1.7 or a P681H point mutant. Likewise, we observed no differences in viral growth between USA-WA1/2020 and a B.1.1.7 isolate in cell culture. Our findings suggest that while the B.1.1.7 P681H mutation may slightly increase S1/S2 cleavage this does not significantly impact viral entry or cell-cell spread.

Within-host evolutionary dynamics of seasonal and pandemic human influenza A viruses in young children

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on infections in healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analyzed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H1N1pdm09 or A/H3N2 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous minority variants were more prevalent than synonymous ones. For A/H3N2 viruses in young children, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. As these infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants typically increased in frequency even when within-host virus titers decreased. Unlike the short-lived infections of adults where de novo within-host variants are rare, longer infections in young children allow for the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance creating potentially important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

Acute SARS-CoV-2 infections harbor limited within-host diversity and transmit via tight transmission bottlenecks

The emergence of divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages has raised concern that novel variants eliciting immune escape or the ability to displace circulating lineages could emerge within individual hosts. Though growing evidence suggests that novel variants arise during prolonged infections, most infections are acute. Understanding how efficiently variants emerge and transmit among acutely-infected hosts is therefore critical for predicting the pace of long-term SARS-CoV-2 evolution. To characterize how within-host diversity is generated and propagated, we combine extensive laboratory and bioinformatic controls with metrics of within- and between-host diversity to 133 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from acutely-infected individuals. We find that within-host diversity is low and transmission bottlenecks are narrow, with very few viruses founding most infections. Within-host variants are rarely transmitted, even among individuals within the same household, and are rarely detected along phylogenetically linked infections in the broader community. These findings suggest that most variation generated within-host is lost during transmission.

The Molecular Evolution of Type 2 Vaccine-Derived Polioviruses in Individuals with Primary Immunodeficiency Diseases

The oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), which prevents person-to-person transmission of poliovirus by inducing robust intestinal immunity, has been a crucial tool for global polio eradication. However, polio outbreaks, mainly caused by type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2), are increasing worldwide. Meanwhile, immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) is considered another risk factor during the final stage of global polio eradication. Patients with primary immunodeficiency diseases are associated with higher risks for long-term iVDPV infections. Although a limited number of chronic iVDPV excretors were reported, the recent identification of a chronic type 2 iVDPV (iVDPV2) excretor in the Philippines highlights the potential risk of inapparent iVDPV infection for expanding cVDPV outbreaks. Further research on the genetic characterizations and molecular evolution of iVDPV2, based on comprehensive iVDPV surveillance, will be critical for elucidating the remaining risk of iVDPV2 during the post-OPV era.

Dynamically linking influenza virus infection kinetics, lung injury, inflammation, and disease severity

Influenza viruses cause a significant amount of morbidity and mortality. Understanding host immune control efficacy and how different factors influence lung injury and disease severity are critical. We established and validated dynamical connections between viral loads, infected cells, CD8⁺ T cells, lung injury, inflammation, and disease severity using an integrative mathematical model-experiment exchange. Our results showed that the dynamics of inflammation and virus-inflicted lung injury are distinct and nonlinearly related to disease severity, and that these two pathologic measurements can be independently predicted using the model-derived infected cell dynamics. Our findings further indicated that the relative CD8⁺ T cell dynamics paralleled the percent of the lung that had resolved with the rate of CD8⁺ T cell-mediated clearance rapidly accelerating by over 48,000 times in 2 days. This complimented our analyses showing a negative correlation between the efficacy of innate and adaptive immune-mediated infected cell clearance, and that infection duration was driven by CD8⁺ T cell magnitude rather than efficacy and could be significantly prolonged if the ratio of CD8⁺ T cells to infected cells was sufficiently low. These links between important pathogen kinetics and host pathology enhance our ability to forecast disease progression, potential complications, and therapeutic efficacy.

Favipiravir-resistant influenza A virus shows potential for transmission

Favipiravir is a nucleoside analogue which has been licensed to treat influenza in the event of a new pandemic. We previously described a favipiravir resistant influenza A virus generated by in vitro passage in presence of drug with two mutations: K229R in PB1, which conferred resistance at a cost to polymerase activity, and P653L in PA, which compensated for the cost of polymerase activity. However, the clinical relevance of these mutations is unclear as the mutations have not been found in natural isolates and it is unknown whether viruses harbouring these mutations would replicate or transmit in vivo. Here, we infected ferrets with a mix of wild type p(H1N1) 2009 and corresponding favipiravir-resistant virus and tested for replication and transmission in the absence of drug. Favipiravir-resistant virus successfully infected ferrets and was transmitted by both contact transmission and respiratory droplet routes. However, sequencing revealed the mutation that conferred resistance, K229R, decreased in frequency over time within ferrets. Modelling revealed that due to a fitness advantage for the PA P653L mutant, reassortment with the wild-type virus to gain wild-type PB1 segment in vivo resulted in the loss of the PB1 resistance mutation K229R. We demonstrated that this fitness advantage of PA P653L in the background of our starting virus A/England/195/2009 was due to a maladapted PA in first wave isolates from the 2009 pandemic. We show there is no fitness advantage of P653L in more recent pH1N1 influenza A viruses. Therefore, whilst favipiravir-resistant virus can transmit in vivo, the likelihood that the resistance mutation is retained in the absence of drug pressure may vary depending on the genetic background of the starting viral strain.

Concerns about SARS-CoV-2 evolution should not hold back efforts to expand vaccination

When vaccines are in limited supply, expanding the number of people who receive some vaccine, such as by halving doses or increasing the interval between doses, can reduce disease and mortality compared with concentrating available vaccine doses in a subset of the population. A corollary of such dose-sparing strategies is that the vaccinated individuals may have less protective immunity. Concerns have been raised that expanding the fraction of the population with partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could increase selection for vaccine-escape variants, ultimately undermining vaccine effectiveness. We argue that, although this is possible, preliminary evidence instead suggests such strategies should slow the rate of viral escape from vaccine or naturally induced immunity. As long as vaccination provides some protection against escape variants, the corresponding reduction in prevalence and incidence should reduce the rate at which new variants are generated and the speed of adaptation. Because there is little evidence of efficient immune selection of SARS-CoV-2 during typical infections, these population-level effects are likely to dominate vaccine-induced evolution.

Recurrent deletions in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein drive antibody escape

Zoonotic pandemics, such as that caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), can follow the spillover of animal viruses into highly susceptible human populations. The descendants of these viruses have adapted to the human host and evolved to evade immune pressure. Coronaviruses acquire substitutions more slowly than other RNA viruses. In the spike glycoprotein, we found that recurrent deletions overcome this slow substitution rate. Deletion variants arise in diverse genetic and geographic backgrounds, transmit efficiently, and are present in novel lineages, including those of current global concern. They frequently occupy recurrent deletion regions (RDRs), which map to defined antibody epitopes. Deletions in RDRs confer resistance to neutralizing antibodies. By altering stretches of amino acids, deletions appear to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 antigenic evolution and may, more generally, drive adaptive evolution.

Recurrent deletions in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein drive antibody escape

Zoonotic pandemics, such as that caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), can follow the spillover of animal viruses into highly susceptible human populations. The descendants of these viruses have adapted to the human host and evolved to evade immune pressure. Coronaviruses acquire substitutions more slowly than other RNA viruses. In the spike glycoprotein, we found that recurrent deletions overcome this slow substitution rate. Deletion variants arise in diverse genetic and geographic backgrounds, transmit efficiently, and are present in novel lineages, including those of current global concern. They frequently occupy recurrent deletion regions (RDRs), which map to defined antibody epitopes. Deletions in RDRs confer resistance to neutralizing antibodies. By altering stretches of amino acids, deletions appear to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 antigenic evolution and may, more generally, drive adaptive evolution.

Prospective mapping of viral mutations that escape antibodies used to treat COVID-19

Antibodies are a potential therapy for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but the risk of the virus evolving to escape them remains unclear. Here we map how all mutations to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 affect binding by the antibodies in the REGN-COV2 cocktail and the antibody LY-CoV016. These complete maps uncover a single amino acid mutation that fully escapes the REGN-COV2 cocktail, which consists of two antibodies, REGN10933 and REGN10987, targeting distinct structural epitopes. The maps also identify viral mutations that are selected in a persistently infected patient treated with REGN-COV2 and during in vitro viral escape selections. Finally, the maps reveal that mutations escaping the individual antibodies are already present in circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains. These complete escape maps enable interpretation of the consequences of mutations observed during viral surveillance.

Mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2 are more prone to infect obese patient: a review

The current review critically analyzes obesity as an important risk factor for increased predisposition towards coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), its severity and causal death in current pandemic. Countries with higher prevalence of exposed obese individuals experienced the highest number of mortalities. The analysis also proved that individuals having more adipose tissue in body have a higher level of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which is identified as functional receptor for COVID-19. Therefore, obese individuals are worse in condition because of a higher presence of adiposity increases the number of ACE2 expressing cells. Furthermore, in silico interactions of ACE2 and different variants of coronavirus 2 (CoV-2) spike S1 protein suggest that mutant strains are more infectious than wildtype as they bind to host ACE2 protein with high binding affinities. Certain specific cancers including cervical cancer, pancreatic and rectal adenocarcinomas have more expression of such receptors and pose additional risk to already immunocompromised cancer patients. This review emphasizes obesity, as the covert risk factor of COVID-19 infection and sensitizes about of calorie restrictions, immunity building and preventive measures.

Prolonged Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Replication in an Immunocompromised Patient

We describe a case of chronic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a patient with lymphoma and associated B-cell immunodeficiency. Viral cultures and sequence analysis demonstrate ongoing replication of infectious severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) for at least 119 days. The patient had 3 admissions related to COVID-19 over a 4-month period and was treated twice with remdesivir and convalescent plasma with resolution of symptoms. The patient's lack of seroconversion and prolonged course illustrate the importance of humoral immunity in resolving SARS-CoV-2 infection. This case highlights challenges in managing immunocompromised hosts, who may act as persistent shedders and sources of transmission.

Longitudinal sampling is required to maximize detection of intrahost A/H3N2 virus variants

Seasonal human influenza viruses continually change antigenically to escape from neutralizing antibodies. It remains unclear how genetic variation in the intrahost virus population and selection at the level of individual hosts translates to the fast-paced evolution observed at the global level because emerging intrahost antigenic variants are rarely detected. We tracked intrahost variants in the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase surface proteins using longitudinally collected samples from 52 patients infected by A/H3N2 influenza virus, mostly young children, who received oseltamivir treatment. We identified emerging putative antigenic variants and oseltamivir-resistant variants, most of which remained detectable in samples collected at subsequent days, and identified variants that emerged intrahost immediately prior to increases in global rates. In contrast to most putative antigenic variants, oseltamivir-resistant variants rapidly increased to high frequencies in the virus population. Importantly, the majority of putative antigenic variants and oseltamivir-resistant variants were first detectable four or more days after onset of symptoms or start of treatment, respectively. Our observations demonstrate that de novo variants emerge, and may be positively selected, during the course of infection. Additionally, based on the 4–7 days post-treatment delay in emergence of oseltamivir-resistant variants in six out of the eight individuals with such variants, we find that limiting sample collection for routine surveillance and diagnostic testing to early timepoints after onset of symptoms can potentially preclude detection of emerging, positively selected variants.

Prospective mapping of viral mutations that escape antibodies used to treat COVID-19

Antibodies are becoming a frontline therapy for SARS-CoV-2, but the risk of viral evolutionary escape remains unclear. Here we map how all mutations to SARS-CoV-2's receptor-binding domain (RBD) affect binding by the antibodies in Regeneron's REGN-COV2 cocktail and Eli Lilly's LY-CoV016. These complete maps uncover a single amino-acid mutation that fully escapes the REGN-COV2 cocktail, which consists of two antibodies targeting distinct structural epitopes. The maps also identify viral mutations that are selected in a persistently infected patient treated with REGN-COV2, as well as in lab viral escape selections. Finally, the maps reveal that mutations escaping each individual antibody are already present in circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains. Overall, these complete escape maps enable immediate interpretation of the consequences of mutations observed during viral surveillance.

Asynchrony between virus diversity and antibody selection limits influenza virus evolution

Seasonal influenza viruses create a persistent global disease burden by evolving to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. New antigenic variants have a substantial selective advantage at the population level, but these variants are rarely selected within-host, even in previously immune individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that the temporal asynchrony between within-host virus exponential growth and antibody-mediated selection could limit within-host antigenic evolution. If selection for new antigenic variants acts principally at the point of initial virus inoculation, where small virus populations encounter well-matched mucosal antibodies in previously-infected individuals, there can exist protection against reinfection that does not regularly produce observable new antigenic variants within individual infected hosts. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for how virus antigenic evolution can be highly selective at the global level but nearly neutral within-host. They also suggest new avenues for improving influenza control.

Drivers of within-host genetic diversity in acute infections of viruses

Genetic diversity is the fuel of evolution and facilitates adaptation to novel environments. However, our understanding of what drives differences in the genetic diversity during the early stages of viral infection is somewhat limited. Here, we use ultra-deep sequencing to interrogate 43 clinical samples taken from early infections of the human-infecting viruses HIV, RSV and CMV. Hundreds to thousands of virus templates were sequenced per sample, allowing us to reveal dramatic differences in within-host genetic diversity among virus populations. We found that increased diversity was mostly driven by presence of multiple divergent genotypes in HIV and CMV samples, which we suggest reflect multiple transmitted/founder viruses. Conversely, we detected an abundance of low frequency hyper-edited genomes in RSV samples, presumably reflecting defective virus genomes (DVGs). We suggest that RSV is characterized by higher levels of cellular co-infection, which allow for complementation and hence elevated levels of DVGs.

The few days or weeks following infection with a virus, termed acute infection, are critical for virus establishment. Here we sought to characterize what leads to differences in the genetic diversity of different viruses sampled during acute infection. We performed ultra-deep sequencing of hundreds to thousands viral genomes from forty-three samples spanning three pathogenic human viruses: HIV, RSV and CMV. We found major differences in the genetic diversity of these different viruses, and in different patients infected with the same virus. We investigated the factors responsible for these differences. We found that the DNA virus CMV was less diverse, most likely since it has a lower mutation rate than the RNA viruses HIV and RSV. We also found that the samples with the highest genetic diversity, which included one CMV sample and two HIV samples, bore evidence for multiple genotype infection. In other words, patients from whom these samples were taken were infected with two different “strains” of the virus. Finally, we also found evidence that viral genomes of HIV, and in particular RSV, are edited by the innate immune system of the host, leading to the presence of defective virus genomes.

Potency and timing of antiviral therapy as determinants of duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding and intensity of inflammatory response

To affect the COVID-19 pandemic, lifesaving antiviral therapies must be identified. The number of clinical trials that can be performed is limited. We developed mathematical models to project multiple therapeutic approaches. Our models recapitulate off-treatment viral dynamics and predict a three-phase immune response. Simulated treatment with remdesivir, selinexor, neutralizing antibodies, or cellular immunotherapy demonstrates that rapid viral elimination is possible if in vivo potency is sufficiently high. Therapies dosed soon after peak viral load when symptoms develop may decrease shedding duration and immune response intensity but have little effect on viral area under the curve (AUC), which is driven by high early viral loads. Potent therapy dosed before viral peak during presymptomatic infection could lower AUC. Drug resistance may emerge with a moderately potent agent dosed before viral peak. Our results support early treatment for COVID-19 if shedding duration, not AUC, is most predictive of clinical severity.

Potency and timing of antiviral therapy as determinants of duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding and intensity of inflammatory response

To affect the COVID-19 pandemic, lifesaving antiviral therapies must be identified. The number of clinical trials that can be performed is limited. We developed mathematical models to project multiple therapeutic approaches. Our models recapitulate off-treatment viral dynamics and predict a three-phase immune response. Simulated treatment with remdesivir, selinexor, neutralizing antibodies, or cellular immunotherapy demonstrates that rapid viral elimination is possible if in vivo potency is sufficiently high. Therapies dosed soon after peak viral load when symptoms develop may decrease shedding duration and immune response intensity but have little effect on viral area under the curve (AUC), which is driven by high early viral loads. Potent therapy dosed before viral peak during presymptomatic infection could lower AUC. Drug resistance may emerge with a moderately potent agent dosed before viral peak. Our results support early treatment for COVID-19 if shedding duration, not AUC, is most predictive of clinical severity.

Beyond clinical trials: Evolutionary and epidemiological considerations for development of a universal influenza vaccine

The prospect of universal influenza vaccines is generating much interest and research at the intersection of immunology, epidemiology, and viral evolution. While the current focus is on developing a vaccine that elicits a broadly cross-reactive immune response in clinical trials, there are important downstream questions about global deployment of a universal influenza vaccine that should be explored to minimize unintended consequences and maximize benefits. Here, we review and synthesize the questions most relevant to predicting the population benefits of universal influenza vaccines and discuss how existing information could be mined to begin to address these questions. We review three research topics where computational modeling could bring valuable evidence: immune imprinting, viral evolution, and transmission. We address the positive and negative consequences of imprinting, in which early childhood exposure to influenza shapes and limits immune responses to future infections via memory of conserved influenza antigens. However, the mechanisms at play, their effectiveness, breadth of protection, and the ability to "reprogram" already imprinted individuals, remains heavily debated. We describe instances of rapid influenza evolution that illustrate the plasticity of the influenza virus in the face of drug pressure and discuss how novel vaccines could introduce new selective pressures on the evolution of the virus. We examine the possible unintended consequences of broadly protective (but infection-permissive) vaccines on the dynamics of epidemic and pandemic influenza, compared to conventional vaccines that have been shown to provide herd immunity benefits. In conclusion, computational modeling offers a valuable tool to anticipate the benefits of ambitious universal influenza vaccine programs, while balancing the risks from endemic influenza strains and unpredictable pandemic viruses. Moving forward, it will be important to mine the vast amount of data generated in clinical studies of universal influenza vaccines to ensure that the benefits and consequences of these vaccine programs have been carefully modeled and explored.

Uba C, Rivero-Perez N, Zaragoza-Bastida A, Shah MA, Behl T, Batiha GES. Factors Associated with Increased Morbidity and Mortality of Obese and Overweight COVID-19 Patients

Overweight and obesity are defined as an unnecessary accumulation of fat, which poses a risk to health. It is a well-identified risk factor for increased mortality due to heightened rates of heart disease, certain cancers, musculoskeletal disorders, and bacterial, protozoan and viral infections. The increasing prevalence of obesity is of concern, as conventional pathogenesis may indeed be increased in obese hosts rather than healthy hosts, especially during this COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 is a new disease and we do not have the luxury of cumulative data. Obesity activates the development of gene induced hypoxia and adipogenesis in obese animals. Several factors can influence obesity, for example, stress can increase the body weight by allowing people to consume high amounts of food with a higher propensity to consume palatable food. Obesity is a risk factor for the development of immune-mediated and some inflammatory-mediated diseases, including atherosclerosis and psoriasis, leading to a dampened immune response to infectious agents, leading to weaker post-infection impacts. Moreover, the obese host creates a special microenvironment for disease pathogenesis, marked by persistent low-grade inflammation. Therefore, it is advisable to sustain healthy eating habits by increasing the consumption of various plant-based and low-fat foods to protect our bodies and decrease the risk of infectious diseases, especially COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2-host dynamics: Increased risk of adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in obesity

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The pandemic of COVID-19 has put forward the public health system across countries to prepare themselves for the unprecedented outbreak of the present time. Recognition of the associated risks of morbidity and mortality becomes not only imperative but also fundamental to determine the prevention strategies as well as targeting the high-risk populations for appropriate therapies.

METHODS

We reviewed, collated and analysed the online database i.e. Pubmed, Google scholar, Researchgate to highlight the demographic and mechanistic link between obesity and associated risks of severity in COVID-19.

RESULTS

We observed a changing dynamic in the reporting from the time of initial pandemic in China to currently reported research. While, initially body mass index (BMI) did not find a mention in the data, it is now clearly emerging that obesity is one of the profound risk factors for complications of COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Our review will help clinicians and health policy makers in considering the importance of obesity in making the prevention and therapeutic strategies of COVID-19. An extra attention and precaution for patients with obesity in COVID-19 pandemic is recommended.

A large effective population size for established within-host influenza virus infection

Strains of the influenza virus form coherent global populations, yet exist at the level of single infections in individual hosts. The relationship between these scales is a critical topic for understanding viral evolution. Here we investigate the within-host relationship between selection and the stochastic effects of genetic drift, estimating an effective population size of infection Ne for influenza infection. Examining whole-genome sequence data describing a chronic case of influenza B in a severely immunocompromised child we infer an Ne of 2.5 × 107 (95% confidence range 1.0 × 107 to 9.0 × 107) suggesting that genetic drift is of minimal importance during an established influenza infection. Our result, supported by data from influenza A infection, suggests that positive selection during within-host infection is primarily limited by the typically short period of infection. Atypically long infections may have a disproportionate influence upon global patterns of viral evolution.