PRE-EXPOSING CANADA GEESE ( BRANTA CANADENSIS ) TO A LOW-PATHOGENIC H1N1 AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS PROTECTS THEM AGAINST H5N1 HPAI VIRUS CHALLENGE

Perpetuation of Avian Influenza from Molt to Fall Migration in Wild Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides): An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir of avian influenza, but their distinct annual life cycle stages and their contribution to disease dynamics are not well understood. Studies of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus have primarily focused on wintering grounds, where human and poultry densities are high year-round, compared with breeding grounds, where migratory waterfowl are more isolated. Few if any studies of avian influenza have focused on the molting stage where wild waterfowl congregate in a few selected wetlands and undergo the simultaneous molt of wing and tail feathers during a vulnerable flightless period. The molting stage may be one of the most important periods for the perpetuation of the disease in waterfowl, since during this stage, immunologically naïve young birds and adults freely intermix prior to the fall migration. Our study incorporated empirical data from virological field samplings and markings of Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides) on their breeding grounds in Mongolia in an integrated agent-based model (ABM) that included susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) states. Our ABM results provided unique insights and indicated that individual movements between different molting wetlands and the transmission rate were the key predictors of HPAI perpetuation. While wetland extent was not a significant predictor of HPAI perpetuation, it had a large effect on the number of infections and associated death toll. Our results indicate that conserving undisturbed habitats for wild waterfowl during the molting stage of the breeding season could reduce the risk of HPAI transmission.

Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Influenza A Virus (IAV) in Blue-Winged Teal in the Mississippi Flyway Is Following the Historic Seasonal Pattern of Low-Pathogenicity IAV in Ducks

Highly pathogenic H5N1 (HP H5N1) influenza A virus (IAV) has been detected annually in North American ducks since its introduction during 2021, but it is unknown if this virus will follow the same seasonal and geographic patterns that have been observed with low-pathogenicity (LP) IAV in this reservoir. We monitored blue-winged teal in the Mississippi flyway prior to the detection of HP H5N1 and during two post-introduction migration cycles from spring 2022 to spring 2024, testing birds for infection and antibodies to IAV nucleoprotein (NP), hemagglutinin subtype H5, and neuraminidase subtype N1. Antigens representing clade 2.3.4.4b HP H5 and LP North American H5 were used for hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and virus neutralization (VN) tests for H5 antibodies. Virologic results were consistent with historic seasonal and geographic patterns reported for LP IAV with peak infections occurring in pre-migration staging areas in Minnesota during fall 2022. However, the high prevalence of the H5 subtype was exceptional compared to historic prevalence estimates at this same site and for the Mississippi flyway. HP H5N1 was detected on wintering areas in Louisiana and Texas during the fall of that same year and this was followed by an increase in estimated antibody prevalence to NP, H5, and N1 with no HP H5N1 detections during the wintering or spring migration periods of 2022/2023. HP H5N1 was not detected in Minnesota during fall 2023 but was detected from a single bird in Louisiana. However, a similar increase in antibody prevalence was observed during the winter and spring period of 2023 and 2024. Over the two migration cycles, there was a temporal shift in observed prevalence and relative titers against the H5 antigens with a higher proportion of ducks testing positive to the 2.3.4.4b H5 antigen and higher relative titer to that antigen compared to the representative LP North American H5 antigen. The seasonal and geographic patterns observed appear to be driven by population immunity during the migration cycle. Results support an initial high infection rate of HP H5N1 in blue-winged teal in the Mississippi flyway followed by a high prevalence of antibodies to NP, H5, and N1. Although prevalence was much reduced in the second migration cycle following introduction, it is not known if this pattern will persist in the longer term or affect historic patterns of subtype diversity in this reservoir.

North American wintering mallards infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza show few signs of altered local or migratory movements

Avian influenza viruses pose a threat to wildlife and livestock health. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in wild birds and poultry in North America in late 2021 was the first such outbreak since 2015 and the largest outbreak in North America to date. Despite its prominence and economic impacts, we know relatively little about how HPAI spreads in wild bird populations. In January 2022, we captured 43 mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in Tennessee, USA, 11 of which were actively infected with HPAI. These were the first confirmed detections of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in the Mississippi Flyway. We compared movement patterns of infected and uninfected birds and found no clear differences; infected birds moved just as much during winter, migrated slightly earlier, and migrated similar distances as uninfected birds. Infected mallards also contacted and shared space with uninfected birds while on their wintering grounds, suggesting ongoing transmission of the virus. We found no differences in body condition or survival rates between infected and uninfected birds. Together, these results show that HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b infection was unrelated to body condition or movement behavior in mallards infected at this location during winter; if these results are confirmed in other seasons and as HPAI H5N1 continues to evolve, they suggest that these birds could contribute to the maintenance and dispersal of HPAI in North America. Further research on more species across larger geographic areas and multiple seasons would help clarify potential impacts of HPAI on waterfowl and how this emerging disease spreads at continental scales, across species, and potentially between wildlife and domestic animals.

Naturally Acquired Antibodies to Influenza A Virus in Fall-Migrating North American Mallards

Although waterfowl are the primary reservoir for multiple subtypes of influenza A virus (IAV), our understanding of population immunity in naturally infected waterfowl is poorly understood. Population immunity may be an important driver of seasonal subtype predominance in waterfowl populations and may affect the potential for establishment of introduced IAV such as the Eurasian-like A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage in these populations. Here, we examine the prevalence of naturally acquired antibodies to nucleoprotein (NP), hemagglutinin (H3, H4, H5), and neuraminidase (N1, N2, N6, N8) in early migrating mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) sampled in Northwest Minnesota during staging and early fall migration in September 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018. Serologic results were compared to historic and contemporary virus isolation results from these same study sites. The prevalence of antibodies to NP ranged from 60.8−76.1% in hatch-year (HY) birds and from 86.0−92.7% in after-hatch-year (AHY, >1-year-old) mallards indicating a high level of previous infection with IAV early in the fall migration season. Neutralizing antibodies were detected against H3, H4, and H5 in all years as were antibodies to N1, N2, N6, and N8. A high proportion of NP seropositive ducks tested positive for antibodies to multiple HA and NA subtypes, and this was more common in the AHY age class. Antibody prevalence to the HA and NA subtypes included in this study were consistent with the predominance of H4N6 in these populations during all years and reflected a broadening of the antibody response with age. Additional work is needed to document the longevity of these immune responses, if and how they correlate with protection against IAV transmission, infection, and disease, and if, as detected in this study, they adequately describe the true extent of exposure to IAV or specific HA or NA subtypes.

Seroprevalence of avian influenza in Baltic common eiders (Somateria mollissima) and pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus)

Blood plasma was collected during 2016-2018 from healthy incubating eiders (Somateria molissima, n = 183) in three Danish colonies, and healthy migrating pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus, n = 427) at their spring roost in Central Norway (Svalbard breeding population) and their novel flyway through the Finnish Baltic Sea (Russian breeding population). These species and flyways altogether represent terrestrial, brackish and marine ecosystems spanning from the Western to the Eastern and Northern part of the Baltic Sea. Plasma of these species was analysed for seroprevalence of specific avian influenza A (AI) antibodies to obtain information on circulating AI serotypes and exposure. Overall, antibody prevalence was 55% for the eiders and 47% for the pink-footed geese. Of AI-antibody seropositive birds, 12% (22/183) of the eiders and 3% (12/427) of the pink-footed geese had been exposed to AI of the potentially zoonotic serotypes H5 and/or H7 virus. AI seropositive samples selected at random (n = 33) showed a low frequency of serotypes H1, H6 and H9. Future projects should aim at sampling and isolating AI virus to characterize dominant serotypes and virus strains (PCR). This will increase our understanding of how AI exposure may affect health, breeding and population viability of Baltic common eiders and pink-footed geese as well as the potential spill-over to humans (zoonotic potential).

LIMITED DETECTION OF ANTIBODIES TO CLADE 2.3.4.4 A/GOOSE/GUANGDONG/1/1996 LINEAGE HIGHLY PATHOGENIC H5 AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS IN NORTH AMERICAN WATERFOWL

During 2014, highly pathogenic (HP) influenza A viruses (IAVs) of the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage (GsGD-HP-H5), originating from Asia, were detected in domestic poultry and wild birds in Canada and the US. These clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 viruses included reassortants possessing North American lineage gene segments; were detected in wild birds in the Pacific, Central, and Mississippi flyways; and caused the largest HP IAV outbreak in poultry in US history. To determine if an antibody response indicative of previous infection with clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 IAV could be detected in North American wild waterfowl sampled before, during, and after the 2014-15 outbreak, sera from 2,793 geese and 3,715 ducks were tested by blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests using both clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HPH5 and North American lineage low pathogenic (LP) H5 IAV antigens. We detected an antibody response meeting a comparative titer-based criteria (HI titer observed with 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 antigens exceeded the titer observed for LP H5 antigen by two or more dilutions) for previous infection with clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 IAV in only five birds, one Blue-winged Teal (Spatula discors) sampled during the outbreak and three Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and one Canada Goose (Branta canadensis) sampled during the post-outbreak period. These serologic results are consistent with the spatiotemporal extent of the outbreak in wild birds in North America during 2014 and 2015 and limited exposure of waterfowl to GsGD-HP-H5 IAV, particularly in the central and eastern US.

Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population

Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

PB2 and hemagglutinin mutations confer a virulent phenotype on an H1N2 avian influenza virus in mice

We previously obtained mouse-adapted variants of H1N2 avian influenza virus that contained PB2-L134H, PB2-I647L, PB2-D701N, HA-G228S, and M1-D231N mutations. Here, we analyzed the effects of these mutations on viral pathogenicity in a mammalian model. By evaluating the virulence of mouse-adapted H1N2 variants at different generations, we found that the PB2-D701N and HA-G228S mutations both contribute to the virulence of this virus in mammals. Furthermore, we found that the PB2-D701N and HA-G228S mutations both enhance the ability of the virus to replicate in vivo and in vitro and that the PB2-D701N substitution results in an expansion of viral tissue tropism. These results suggest that the PB2-D701N mutation and the HA-G228S mutation are the major mammalian determinants of H1N2 virus. These results help us to understand more about the mechanisms by which influenza viruses adapt to mammals, and monitoring of these mutations can be used in continuous influenza surveillance to assess the pandemic potential of avian influenza virus variants.

Lessons learned from research and surveillance directed at highly pathogenic influenza A viruses in wild birds inhabiting North America

Following detections of highly pathogenic (HP) influenza A viruses (IAVs) in wild birds inhabiting East Asia after the turn of the millennium, the intensity of sampling of wild birds for IAVs increased throughout much of North America. The objectives for many research and surveillance efforts were directed towards detecting Eurasian origin HP IAVs and understanding the potential of such viruses to be maintained and dispersed by wild birds. In this review, we highlight five important lessons learned from research and surveillance directed at HP IAVs in wild birds inhabiting North America: (1) Wild birds may disperse IAVs between North America and adjacent regions via migration, (2) HP IAVs can be introduced to wild birds in North America, (3) HP IAVs may cross the wild bird-poultry interface in North America, (4) The probability of encountering and detecting a specific virus may be low, and (5) Population immunity of wild birds may influence HP IAV outbreaks in North America. We review empirical support derived from research and surveillance efforts for each lesson learned and, furthermore, identify implications for future surveillance efforts, biosecurity, and population health. We conclude our review by identifying five additional areas in which we think future mechanistic research relative to IAVs in wild birds in North America are likely to lead to other important lessons learned in the years ahead.

Changing Role of Wild Birds in the Epidemiology of Avian Influenza A Viruses

Waterbirds are the main reservoir for low pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (LPAIV), from which occasional spillover to poultry occurs. When circulating among poultry, LPAIV may become highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (HPAIV). In recent years, the epidemiology of HPAIV viruses has changed drastically. HPAIV H5N1 are currently endemic among poultry in a number of countries. In addition, global spread of HPAIV H5Nx viruses has resulted in major outbreaks among wild birds and poultry worldwide. Using data collected during these outbreaks, the role of migratory birds as a vector became increasingly clear. Here we provide an overview of current data about various aspects of the changing role of wild birds in the epidemiology of avian influenza A viruses.

Infectivity, transmission and pathogenicity of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza clade 2.3.4.4 (H5N8 and H5N2) United States index viruses in Pekin ducks and Chinese geese

In late 2014, a H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, clade 2.3.4.4, spread by migratory waterfowl into North America reassorting with low pathogenicity AI viruses to produce a H5N2 HPAI virus. Since domestic waterfowl are common backyard poultry frequently in contact with wild waterfowl, the infectivity, transmissibility, and pathogenicity of the United States H5 HPAI index viruses (H5N8 and H5N2) was investigated in domestic ducks and geese. Ducks infected with the viruses had an increase in body temperature but no or mild clinical signs. Infected geese did not show increase in body temperature and most only had mild clinical signs; however, some geese presented severe neurological signs. Ducks became infected and transmitted the viruses to contacts when inoculated with high virus doses [(104 and 106 50% embryo infective dose (EID50)], but not with a lower dose (102 EID50). Geese inoculated with the H5N8 virus became infected regardless of the virus dose given, and transmitted the virus to direct contacts. Only geese inoculated with the higher doses of the H5N2 and their contacts became infected, indicating differences in infectivity between the two viruses and the two waterfowl species. Geese shed higher titers of virus and for a longer period of time than ducks. In conclusion, the H5 HPAI viruses can infect domestic waterfowl and easily transmit to contact birds, with geese being more susceptible to infection and disease than ducks. The disease is mostly asymptomatic, but infected birds shed virus for several days representing a risk to other poultry species.

Subtype-specific influenza A virus antibodies in Canada geese (Branta canadensis)

Historically, surveillance for influenza A viruses (IAVs) in wild birds has relied on viral detection assays. This was largely due to poor performance of serological assays in wild birds; however, recently developed commercial serological assays have improved the ability to detect IAV antibodies in wild birds. Serological surveillance for IAV antibodies in Canada geese (Branta canadensis) has shown that, despite a low prevalence of virus isolations, Canada geese are frequently exposed to IAVs and that exposure increases with latitude, which follows virus isolation prevalence patterns observed in dabbling ducks. The objectives of this study were to further evaluate IAV antibodies in Canada geese using a subtype-specific serological assay to determine if Canada geese are exposed to subtypes that commonly circulate in dabbling ducks. We collected serum samples from Canada geese in Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and tested for antibodies to IAVs using a blocking ELISA. Positive samples were further tested by hemagglutination inhibition for 10 hemagglutinin IAV subtypes (H1-H10). Overall, we detected antibodies to NP in 24% (714/2919) of geese. Antibodies to H3, H4, H5, and H6 subtypes predominated, with H5 being detected most frequently. A decrease in H5 HI antibody prevalence and titers was observed from 2009 to 2012. We also detected similar exposure pattern in Canada geese from New Jersey, Minnesota, Washington and Wisconsin. Based on the published literature, H3, H4, and H6 viruses are the most commonly reported IAVs from dabbling ducks. These results indicate that Canada geese also are frequently exposed to viruses of the same HA subtypes; however, the high prevalence of antibodies to H5 viruses was not expected as H5 IAVs are generally not well represented in reported isolates from ducks.

Serological evidence for non-lethal exposures of Mongolian wild birds to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus

Surveillance for highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) in wild birds is logistically demanding due to the very low rates of virus detection. Serological approaches may be more cost effective as they require smaller sample sizes to identify exposed populations. We hypothesized that antigenic differences between classical Eurasian H5 subtype viruses (which have low pathogenicity in chickens) and H5N1 viruses of the Goose/Guangdong/96 H5 lineage (which are HPAIV) may be used to differentiate populations where HPAIVs have been circulating, from those where they have not. To test this we performed hemagglutination inhibition assays to compare the reactivity of serum samples from wild birds in Mongolia (where HPAIV has been circulating, n = 1,832) and Europe (where HPAIV has been rare or absent, n = 497) to a panel of reference viruses including classical Eurasian H5 (of low pathogenicity), and five HPAIV H5N1 antigens of the Asian lineage A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96. Antibody titres were detected against at least one of the test antigens for 182 Mongolian serum samples (total seroprevalence of 0.10, n = 1,832, 95% adjusted Wald confidence limits of 0.09-0.11) and 25 of the European sera tested (total seroprevalence of 0.05, n = 497, 95% adjusted Wald confidence limits of 0.03-0.07). A bias in antibody titres to HPAIV antigens was found in the Mongolian sample set (22/182) that was absent in the European sera (0/25). Although the interpretation of serological data from wild birds is complicated by the possibility of exposure to multiple strains, and variability in the timing of exposure, these findings suggest that a proportion of the Mongolian population had survived exposure to HPAIV, and that serological assays may enhance the targeting of traditional HPAIV surveillance toward populations where isolation of HPAIV is more likely.