Temporal dynamics and impact of climate factors on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in central Tunisia

Community-based symptom reporting among agro-pastoralists and their livestock in Chad in a One Health approach

One Health Syndromic Surveillance has a high potential for detecting early epidemiological events in remote and hard-to-reach populations. Chadian pastoralists living close to their animals and being socio-economically unprivileged have an increased risk for zoonosis exposure. Engaging communities in disease surveillance could also strengthen preparedness capacities for outbreaks in rural Chad. This study describes a retrospective cross-sectional survey that collected data on clinical symptoms reported in people and livestock in Chadian agro-pastoral communities. In January-February 2018, interviews were conducted in rural households living in nomadic camps or settled villages in the Yao and Danamadji health districts. The questionnaire covered demographic data and symptoms reported in humans and animals for the hot, wet, and cold seasons over the last 12 months. Incidence rates of human and animal symptoms were comparatively analyzed at the household level. Ninety-two households with a homogeneous socio-demographic distribution were included. We observed cough and diarrhea as the most frequent symptoms reported simultaneously in humans and animals. In all species, the incidence rate of cough was significantly higher during the cold season, and diarrhea tended to occur more frequently during the wet season. However, the incidence rate of cough and diarrhea in animals did not predict the incidence rate of these symptoms in humans. Overall, the variations in reported symptoms were consistent with known seasonal, regional, and sociological influences on endemic diseases. Our retrospective study demonstrated the feasibility of collecting relevant health data in humans and animals in remote regions with low access to health services by actively involving community members. This encourages establishing real-time community-based syndromic surveillance in areas such as rural Chad.

Human Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in North Africa and Its Threats to Public Health: A Statistical Study Focused on Djelfa (Algeria)

Cutaneous leishmaniasis, the most common form of leishmaniasis, causes long-term skin lesions on exposed areas of the skin. It is caused by a protozoan parasite belonging to the genus Leishmania and is transmitted via infected phlebotomine sand flies. In North Africa, particularly Algeria, the disease represents a major public health problem. This retrospective study, which focuses on the agropastoral region of Djelfa (central Algeria) during a period of 16 years, from 2006 to 2021, is part of the surveillance of cutaneous leishmaniasis to identify the key factors favouring its probable spread. The analyzed data reveal that this disease is more prevalent in male patients (53.60%) and is highly widespread in this vast area of 66,415 km2 with a total of 3864 CL cases, reaching a peak of 1407 cases in 2006. Statistically, the Pearson correlation validated by the p-value shows, in an original and sometimes unexpected way, that certain factors, such as temperature linked to climate change, are playing a significant role in the probable spread of the disease in Djelfa and its surrounding regions. The concentration of the population in some specific rural areas with limited or nonexistent access to public health services is another potential factor in disease transmission. The results were highlighted by a significant correlation coefficient (r=0.66) with a p-value less than 0.01. While there is currently no vaccine or prophylactic drug available, our research represents a preliminary approach that addresses various epidemiological aspects of the disease. This paves the way for a proactive preventive strategy involving the control of vector-borne diseases.

Impact of climatic factors on temporal variability of sand fly abundance in Sri Lanka: Longitudinal study (2018 to 2020) with two-stage hierarchical analysis

Background

Phlebotomine sand flies serve as vectors for leishmaniasis, a major health concern, but a neglected tropical disease. The risk of vector activity is governed by climatic factors that vary in different geographic zones in the country. Thus, we aimed to quantify the effect of climatic variables on sand fly vector activity in ten sentinel sites across Sri Lanka.

Methods

Mean rainfall, ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, soil temperature, evaporation, sunshine hours, and vector densities were recorded at monthly intervals in each location from March 2018 to February 2020. The association between weather variables and sand fly densities was analysed using a two-staged hierarchical procedure; Distributed Lag Non-Linear (DLNM) modelling framework and the DLNM method implemented in the R package dlnm (version number 2.4.6).

Results

Moderate rainfall values up to 120 mm per month and increasing RH up to 82 at lag of 0 months along with increasing soil temperature and evaporation rate at lag of 2 months were associated with statistically significant increase in the sand fly activity. These associations were heterogeneous across study settings. Whereas increasing ambient and soil temperature, sunshine hours, evaporation rate appeared to reduce the sand fly activity homogeneously at lag of 0 month in all the study settings.

Conclusions

The abundance of sand fly vectors varied in relation to selected climatic variables, either in real-time or with a time lag. This information can be utilized for predicting sand fly densities and for the development of effective strategies to prevent leishmaniasis transmission in specific settings.

Time series analysis of leishmaniasis incidence in Sri Lanka: evidence for humidity-associated fluctuations

Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease of which the transmission is highly influenced by climatic factors, whereas the nature and magnitude differ between geographical regions. The effects of climatic variables on leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka are poorly investigated. The present study focused on time-series analysis of leishmaniasis cases reported from Sri Lanka with selected climatic variables. Variance stabilized time series of leishmaniasis patients of entire Sri Lanka and major districts from 2014 to 2018 was fitted to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. All the possible models were generated by assigning different values for autoregression and moving average terms using a function written in R statistical program. The top ten models with the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) values were selected by writing another function. These models were further evaluated using RMSE and MAPE error parameters to select the optimal model for each area. Cross-autocorrelation analyses were performed to assess the associations between climate and the leishmaniasis incidence. Most associated lags of each variable were integrated into the optimal models to determine the true effects imposed. The optimal models varied depending on the area. SARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0)₁₂ was optimal for the country level. All the forecasts were within the 95% confidence intervals. Humidity was the most notable factor associated with leishmaniasis, which could be attributed to the positive impacts on sand fly activity. Rainfall showed a negative impact probably as a result of flooding of sand fly larval habitats. The ARIMA-based models performed well for the prediction of leishmaniasis in the short term.

Seasonal Patterns of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Caused by L. major and Transmitted by Phlebotomus papatasi in the North Africa Region, a Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

In North African countries, zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is a seasonal disease linked to Phlebotomus papatasi, Scopoli, 1786, the primary proven vector of L. major dynamics. Even if the disease is of public health importance, studies of P. papatasi seasonal dynamics are often local and dispersed in space and time. Therefore, a detailed picture of the biology and behavior of the vector linked with climatic factors and the framework of ZCL outbreaks is still lacking at the North African countries' level. Our study aims to fill this gap via a systematic review and meta-analysis of the seasonal incidence of ZCL and the activity of P. papatasi in North African countries. We address the relationship between the seasonal number of declared ZCL cases, the seasonal dynamic of P. papatasi, and climatic variables at the North African region scale.

METHODS

We selected 585 publications, dissertations, and archives data published from 1990 to July 2022. The monthly incidence data of ZCL were extracted from 15 documents and those on the seasonal dynamic of P. papatasi from 11 publications from four North African countries.

RESULTS

Our analysis disclosed that for most studied sites, the highest ZCL incidence is recorded from October to February (the hibernal season of the vector), while the P. papatasi density peaks primarily during the hot season of June to September. Overall, at the North African region scale, two to four months laps are present before the apparition of the scars reminiscent of infection by L. major.

CONCLUSIONS

Such analysis is of interest to regional decision-makers for planning control of ZCL in North African countries. They can also be a rationale on which future field studies combining ZCL disease incidence, vector activity, and climatic data can be built.

Ecological Survey of the Peridomestic Sand Flies of an Endemic Focus of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the South-East of Morocco

Leishmaniasis is a parasitosis caused by parasites of the genus Leishmania and is transmitted by Phlebotominae sand flies. An entomological survey was carried out in different localities of Zagora Province. Our work allowed us to establish an inventory of sand flies to study potential vectors of leishmaniasis and to compare the composition and the specific abundance of different endemic stations. The sand flies were collected using CDC miniature light traps during the month of July 2019 in the ten studied villages. The results indicate the presence of thirteen species, belonging to the genera Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia. Phlebotomus papatasi was the predominant species (46.65%) followed by Ph. alexandri (17%), Ph. longicuspis (11.55%), Ph. bergeroti (1.53%) and Ph. sergenti (1.27%). Phlebotomus kazeruni (0.03%) was rare, and only one female was captured in Ifred. Sergentomyia schwetzi (8.69%) was the most prevalent species in the Sergentomyia genus followed closely by Se. fallax (6.84%). Sergentomyia africana was present with a proportion of (3.86%) followed by Se. clydei (1.96%). Sergentomyia dreifussi (0.46%), Se. antennata (0.08%), and Se. minuta (0.08%) were very limited. Phlebotomus papatasi, Ph. alexandri, Ph. bergeroti, Ph. longicuspis, Ph. sergenti, Se. schwetzi, Se. clydei, and Se. fallax are constant species, being present at least in 50% of the stations (occurrence> 50%). Common species (25%–49%) were Se. minuta and Se. africana and rare species were Ph. kazeruni and Se. antennata with a very limited distribution (occurrence <12%). The greatest species richness was found in Ksar Mougni and Ifred with the occurrence of 11 species, but overall, it was high (>9 species) in most of the villages. The Shannon–Wiener index was high (H′ > 1) in eight localities (Ksar Mougni, Tassaouante, Bleida, ZaouiteLeftah, Ifred, Timarighine, Ait Oulahyane, and Ait Ali Ouhassou). The high value of this index is in favor of the ZaouiteLeftah locality (Shannon–Wiener index = 1.679) which is explained by the presence of a stand dominated by Ph. papatasi. In order to avoid exposure to infections, a good epidemiological surveillance and vector with rodent control measures must be well maintained. Awareness campaigns are also required and must be conducted for better knowledge of the disease.

The Influence of Transient Changes in Indoor and Outdoor Thermal Comfort on the Use of Outdoor Space by Older Adults in the Nursing Home

Recently, the requirements regarding the environment of nursing homes are high, because the elderly are a vulnerable group with limited adaptive capacity to respond to transient environmental change. This paper presents a field investigation on the influence of transient thermal comfort changes between the indoor and outdoor spaces (i.e., air temperature (Ta), solar radiation (SR), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), and the thermal comfort indices of Universal Thermal Index (UTCI)) on the willingness of the elderly to use outdoor spaces of the Wanxia nursing home of Chengdu City. Results indicated that, in summer, the mean UTCI values of indoor and corridor spaces corresponded to the level of moderate heat stress, while those of road and garden corresponded to the strong heat stress level. Road and garden spaces even showed moderate heat stress in spring. Approximately 28.93% (139) of the elderly living here used outdoor spaces every day. The morning period (from 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.) was the elderly’s favorited period for using outdoor spaces in seasons. The microclimatic transient differences between indoor and outdoor spaces ranged from 0.47 °C to 2.93 °C (|ΔTa|), from 86.09 W/m2 to 206.76 W/m2 (|ΔSR|), from 5.29% to 14.76% (ΔRH), from 0.01 m/s to 0.07 m/s (|ΔWS|), and from 0.25 °C to 2.25 °C (ΔUTCI). These big microclimate differences could cause enormous health risks for the elderly in the process of indoor and outdoor space conversion. The minimal transient change occurred between corridors and indoors. Pearson correlation analysis indicated ΔTa and ΔRH between indoor and outdoor spaces were the primary meteorological factors that influenced the elderly’s willing to use outdoor spaces. The elderly preferred to live in a constant Ta and RH environment. Only when the ΔTa and ΔRH are small enough to resemble a steady-state (ΔUTCI ≤ 0.5 °C), ΔWS and ΔSI could affect the elderly’s choice of using outdoor space. Optimal design strategies were put forward for reducing the transient differences between indoor and outdoor microclimates to inspire the elderly to use outdoor spaces safely, including improving outdoor canopy coverage and indoor mechanical ventilation.

A conceptual model for understanding the zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission risk in the Moroccan pre-Saharan area

Leishmanioses are of public health concern in Morocco, mainly the Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) endemic in the Moroccan pre-Saharian area. Transmission of this disease depends on eco-epidemiological and socio-economic conditions. Therefore, a multivariable approach is required to delineate the risk and intensity of transmission. This will help outline main disease risk factors and understand interactions between all underlying factors acting on disease transmission at a local and regional scale. In this context, we propose a new conceptual model, the Biophysical-Drivers-Response-Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (BDRZCL), adapted to the Pre-Saharian area. The proposed model highlights how the physical and human drivers affect the environment and human health. The incidence of ZCL is linked to human activity and biophysical changes or by their interactions. The human response added to risk drivers are the main components that influence the biophysical part. This model improves our understanding of the cause-effect interactions and helps decision-makers and stakeholders react appropriately.

Geographic distribution of Meriones shawi and Psammomys obesus, the main reservoirs and Phlebotomus papatasi vector of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Middle East and North Africa

Rodents play a significant role in the balance of a terrestrial ecosystem; they are considered prey for many predators like owls and snakes. However, they present a high risk to agriculture (damaging crops) and health. These rodents are the main reservoirs of some vector-borne diseases like leishmaniasis. Meriones shawi (MS) and Psammomys obesus (PO) are the primary Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) reservoirs in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). A review on the MS and PO at the MENA scale was explored. A database of about 1500 papers was used. 38 sites were investigated as foci for MS and 36 sites for PO, and 83 sites of Phlebotomus papatasi (Pp) in the studied region. An updated map at the regional scale and the trend of the reservoir distribution was carried out using a performing proper density analysis. In this paper, climatic conditions and habitat characteristics of these two reservoirs were reviewed. The association of rodent density with some climatic variables is another aspect explored in a case study from Tunisia in the period 2009–2015 using Pearson correlation. Lastly, the protection and control measures of the reservoir were analyzed. The high concentration of the MS, PO, and Pp can be used as an indicator to identify the high-risk area of leishmaniasis infection.

Canine leishmaniosis in Tunisia: Growing prevalence, larger zones of infection

Background

Discovered by Nicolle and Comte in 1908 in Tunisia, Leishmania infantum is an intracellular protozoan responsible for zoonotic canine leishmaniosis (CanL) and zoonotic human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL). It is endemic in several regions of the world, including Tunisia, with dogs considered as the main domestic reservoir. The geographic expansion of canine leishmaniosis (CanL) has been linked to global environmental changes that have affected the density and the distribution of its sand fly vectors.

Methodology/Principal findings

In this study, a cross-sectional epidemiological survey on CanL was carried out in 8 localities in 8 bioclimatic areas of Tunisia. Blood samples were taken from 317 dogs after clinical examination. Collected sera were tested by indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT; 1:80) for the presence of anti-Leishmania infantum antibodies. The overall seroprevalence was 58.3% (185/317). Among positive dogs, only 16.7% showed clinical signs suggestive of leishmaniosis. Seroprevalence rates varied from 6.8% to 84.6% and from 28% to 66% by bioclimatic zone and age group, respectively. Serological positivity was not statistically associated with gender. The presence of Leishmania DNA in blood, using PCR, revealed 21.2% (64/302) prevalence in dogs, which varied by bioclimatic zone (7.3% to 31%) and age group (7% to 25%). The entomological survey carried out in the studied localities showed 16 species of the two genera (Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia). P. perniciosus, P. papatasi, and P. perfiliewi were the most dominant species with relative abundances of 34.7%, 25% and 20.4%, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

The present report suggests a significant increase of CanL in all bioclimatic areas in Tunisia and confirms the ongoing spread of the infection of dogs to the country’s arid zone. Such an expansion of infection in dog population could be attributed to ecological, agronomic, social and climatic factors that affect the presence and density of the phlebotomine vectors.

Visceral leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum is an endemic disease in several regions of the world, especially, in the Mediterranean basin, where dogs constitute the main domestic reservoir for humans. This zoonotic vector-borne disease is closely associated with the environment.

We carried out studies in 8 different regions of Tunisia, collecting and testing blood samples from 317 dogs. Out of which, more than half (58.3%) tested positive for L. infantum (IFAT+), although, only one-third of these displayed clinical signs. However, the detection of Leishmania DNA by blood PCR revealed a global prevalence in dogs of 21.2% (64/302) with a variation between bioclimatic zones. Our entomological survey revealed 16 sand fly species, dominated by the Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia genera, of which the most dominant were P. perniciosus, P. perfiliewi and P. papatasi. The first two of these are recognized vectors of L. infantum. Canine leishmaniosis continues to spread across Tunisia, moving southward, to arid zones because of global warming and agronomic and social factors affecting the presence and density of the phlebotomine vectors.

The potential impact of climate change on the seasonality of Phlebotomus neglectus, the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in the East Mediterranean region

Phlebotomus neglectus is one of the most important vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe and Asia Minor. It was aimed to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality and the range of the species for 2014-2060. In the inland areas of Asia Minor, the Balkan Peninsula and the Carpathian Basin the elongation of the activity season will reach or exceed the two months in the middle of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century. The most affected regions are the middle elevations of the mountainous regions and the plains of the northern distribution areas. In some areas of the southern distribution border, the season is expected to shorten. In the Apennine Peninsula, mainly the mountainous areas could be impacted notably by climate change. The results indicate the potential spread of leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe due to the increasing environmental suitability of the region.

High humidity aggravates the severity of arthritis in collagen-induced arthritis mice by upregulating xylitol and L-pyroglutamic acid

Background

Humidity was an unfavorable factor for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). RA disease activity was severe in high humidity conditions. However, there is no evidence to demonstrate the effects of humidity on arthritis in the animal experiments and explore its relevant mechanism.

Methods

Using the DBA/1 mice, this study addressed the effects of a high humidity (80 ± 5%) on arthritis in collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) mice. Then, this study used the gas chromatography-mass spectrometer (GC-MS) to explore alterations in serum metabolome caused by the high humidity. Furthermore, xylitol and L-pyroglutamic acid, which were both significantly upregulated by the high humidity, were selected to further study their effects on arthritis in the CIA mice.

Results

The high humidity (80 ± 5%) could aggravate arthritis variables including increasing arthritis score and swelling, serum autoantibodies (anti-COII and anti-CCP), and proinflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-17A, and G-CSF). In addition, the high humidity could cause significant alterations in serum metabolome in the CIA mice. Xylitol and L-pyroglutamic acid were the representative serum metabolites that were significantly upregulated by the high humidity. Further experiments demonstrated that the supplementation of 0.4 mg/mL xylitol in drinking water after inducing the CIA model and 2.0 mg/mL in drinking water before inducing the CIA model could both aggravate arthritis in the CIA mice.

Conclusions

These data demonstrated that high humidity was not beneficial for arthritis development and its mechanism might be associated with xylitol and L-pyroglutamic acid.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-021-02681-x.

The effect of climate variables on the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan, Central Iran

In recent years, there have been considerable changes in the distribution of diseases that are potentially tied to ongoing climate variability. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and climatic factors in an Iranian city (Isfahan), which had the highest incidence of CL in the country. CL incidence and meteorological data were acquired from April 2010 to March 2017 (108 months) for Isfahan City. Univariate and multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), generalized additive models (GAM), and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to identify the association between CL cases and meteorological variables, and forecast CL incidence. AIC, BIC, and residual tests were used to test the goodness of fit of SARIMA models; and R² was used for GAM/GAMM. 6798 CL cases were recorded during this time. The incidence had a seasonal pattern and the highest number of cases was recorded from August to October. In univariate SARIMA, (1,0,1) (0,1,1)₁₂ was the best fit for predicting CL incidence (AIC=8.09, BIC=8.32). Time series regression (1,0,1) (0,1,1)₁₂ showed that monthly mean humidity after 4-month lag was inversely related to CL incidence (AIC=8.53, BIC=8.66). GAMM results showed that average temperature with 2-month lag, average relative humidity with 3-month lag, monthly cumulative rainfall with 1-month lag, and monthly sunshine hours with 1-month lag were related to CL incidence (R²=0.94). The impact of meteorological variables on the incidence of CL is not linear and GAM models that include non-linear structures are a better fit for prediction. In Isfahan, Iran, meteorological variables can greatly predict the incidence of CL, and these variables can be used for predicting outbreaks.

Spatiotemporal patterns of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the district upper and lower Dir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: A GIS-based spatial approaches

While Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is not a life-threatening disease, it leads to devastating effects on local community. CL is widely scattered manifesting a noticeable epidemiological pattern around the globe. The present study was planned to address the role of Geographic Information System (GIS) using CL clinico-epidemiological data to determine the high-risk areas of CL. Recorded data (2014-2018) of 3630 positive individuals was collected from Basic Health Units of the Upper and Lower Dir Districts, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Descriptive and statistical analysis was used for clinico-epidemiological characterization. For spatial analysis, ArcGIS V.10.3 was used and the CL average incidence was tagged on the proportional, choropleth, and digital elevation model maps. For focal transmission and high-risk zones, Inverse Density Weight (IDW) spatial interpolation, focal statistics, hot spot, cluster and outlier, and Bayesian geostatistical analysis were used. The trend of CL cases was elevated from 2014 to 2016 except for 2017 and 2018. Individuals of both genders younger than 20 years old were highly susceptible. Single lesions were more prominent (56%) and frequently affected facial parts (51%). The size and pretreatment duration of the CL lesion was significantly associated. Spatially, a choropleth map displayed the maximum CL incidences in Tehsil Balambat, Khal, and Termergara (31%-13%) located within a range of 948-1947m elevation in the central regions with proximal CL transmissions. Hot spot and cluster and outlier analysis affirmed that Tehsil Khal was the high-risk CL foci. The Bayesian geostatistical analysis revealed high temperature, less altitude, and annual precipitation as important risk factors. An increasing trend in CL transmission has become evident, affecting both genders and <20 years old children. GIS resolute the concealed CL hubs in the least elevated central regions which warrant the control strategies to restrict future epidemics.

Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is an important vector-borne disease with an incidence of 15.8 cases per 100,000 people in Iran in 2019. Despite all efforts to control the disease, ZCL has expanded into new areas during the last decades. The aim of this study was to predict the best ecological niches for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL under climate change scenarios in Iran. Several online scientific databases were searched. In this study, various scientific sources (Google Scholar, PubMed, SID, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Irandoc, Magiran) were searched. The inclusion criteria for this study included all records with spatial information about vectors and reservoirs of ZCL which were published between 1980 and 2019. The bioclimatic data were downloaded from online databases. MaxEnt model was used to predict the ecological niches for each species under two climate change scenarios in two periods: the 2030s and 2050s. The results obtained from the model were analysed in ArcMap to find the vulnerability of different provinces for the establishment of ZCL foci. The area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.8, which suggests the models are able to make an accurate prediction. The distribution of all studied species in different climatic conditions showed changes. The variables affecting each of the studied species are introduced in the article. The predicted maps show that by 2050 there will be more suitable areas for the co-occurrence of vector and reservoir(s) of ZCL in Iran compared to the current climate condition and RCP2.6 scenario. An area in the northwest of Iran is predicted to have suitable environmental conditions for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL, although the disease has not yet been reported in this area. These areas should be considered for field studies to confirm these results and to prevent the establishment of new ZCL foci in Iran.

Population structure of leishmania major in southeastern morocco

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an infectious disease caused by various Leishmania species. It is among the most neglected tropical diseases and has been considered a major health threat over the past decades in the country. Its zoonotic form caused by Leishmania (L) major is the most prevalent in Morocco. This study investigated the population structure of L. major in southeastern Morocco. Samples (n = 67) were collected from patients with CL in five different endemic areas located in three provinces (Ouarzazate, Tinghir, and Zagora). These samples were then sequenced using two nuclear markers: internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) and a fragment of the virulence factor GP63. Next, the sequences were edited and analyzed. Molecular diversity indices showed a high population genetic diversity but an overall low haplotype diversity. Our results suggest small population differentiation, indicating a low geographic structure. Tajima's D and Fu's Fs tests both suggested recent population expansion based on the significant deviations from neutrality in both tests for all populations except Tinghir, which may be due to a small sample size. Based on our findings, the region is experiencing rapid population expansion caused by recent CL outbreaks, and one of them has been recently studied. In addition, analysis of molecular variance and F_ST suggested gene flow between Zagora and both Ouarzazate and Tinghir. Nonetheless, no gene flow was observed between Tinghir and Ouarzazate. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first analysis of the population structure of L. major in Morocco. The results of this study provide crucial background information for epidemiological studies by showing the presence of gene flow between populations and clonal expansion in cases of an outbreak. This will drive authorities to reconsider the implemented control strategies.

Impact of Environmental and Climate Factors on Spatial Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeastern Iran: Utilizing Remote Sensing

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a dermal and parasitic disease.. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of environmental and climate factors on spatial distribution of CL in northeastern Iran by utilizing remote sensing from 20 March 2016 to 19 March 2017.

METHODS

In this ecological study, the data were divided into two parts: The descriptive data on human CL cases were gathered from Communicable Diseases center of Iran. The remote sensing techniques and satellite imagery data (TRMM, MODIS-Aqua, MODIS-Terra and AMSR-2 with spatial resolution 0.25°, 0.05°, 5600m and 10km) of environmental and climate factors were used to determine the spatial pattern changes of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence.

RESULTS

The incidence of CL in North Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, and South Khorasan was 35.80 per 100,000 people (309/863092), 34.14 per 100,000 people (2197/6,434,501) and 7.67 per 100,000 people (59/768,898), respectively. The incidence of CL had the highest correlation with soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Moreover, the incidence of disease was significantly correlated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and air humidity while it had the lowest correlation with rainfall. Furthermore, the CL incidence had an indirect correlation relation with the air temperature meaning that with an increase in the temperature, the incidence of disease decreased.

CONCLUSION

As such, the incidence of disease was also higher in the northern regions; most areas of North Khorasan and northern regions of Razavi Khorasan; where the rainfall, vegetation, specific humidity, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture was higher than the southern areas.

Effects of time-lagged meteorological variables on attributable risk of leishmaniasis in central region of Afghanistan

BACKGROUND

Leishmaniasis remains one of the world's most neglected vector-borne diseases, affecting predominantly poor communities mainly in developing countries. Previous studies have shown that the distribution and dynamics of leishmaniasis infections are sensitive to environmental factors, however, there are no studies on the burden of leishmaniasis attributable to time-varying meteorological variables.

METHODS

This study used data from 3 major leishmaniosis afflicted provinces of Afghanistan, between 2003 and 2009, to provide empirical analysis of change in heat/cold-leishmaniosis association. Non-linear and delayed exposure-lag-response relationship between meteorological variables and leishmaniasis were fitted with a distributed lag non-linear model applying a spline function which describes the dependency along the range of values with a lag of up to 12 months. We estimated the risk of leishmaniasis attributable to high and low temperature.

RESULTS

The median monthly mean temperature and rainfall were 16.1 °C and 0.6 in., respectively. Seasonal variations of leishmaniasis were consistent between males and females, however significant differences were observed among different age groups. Temperature effects were immediate and persistent (lag 0-12 months). The cumulative risks were highest at cold temperatures. The cumulative relative risks (logRR) for leishmaniasis were 6.16 (95% CI: 5.74-6.58) and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.32-1.31) associated with the 10th percentile temperature (2.16 °C) and the 90th percentile temperature (28.46 °C). The subgroup analysis showed increased risk for males as well as young and middle aged people at cold temperatures, however, higher risk was observed for the elderly in heat. The overall leishmaniasis-temperature attributable fractions was estimated to be 7.6% (95% CI: 7.5%-7.7%) and mostly due to cold.

CONCLUSION

Findings in this study highlight the non-linearity, delay of effects and magnitude of leishmaniasis risk associated with temperature. The disparity of risk between different subgroups can hopefully advise policy makers and assist in leishmaniasis control program.

Epidemiological features of a recent zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis outbreak in Zagora province, southern Morocco

BACKGROUND

Leishmania major is an endemic vector-borne disease in Morocco that causes zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), especially in arid pre-Saharan regions where its unique vector and reservoir are Phlebotomus papatasi and Meriones shawi, respectively, and may cause epidemics. In late 2017, the Zagora province, an endemic focus for ZCL in southern Morocco, had CL outbreak. The main objective of our investigation was to analyze the epidemiological features of this latest ZCL outbreak.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We analyzed epidemiological features of this latest ZCL outbreak. The Regional Delegation of Health, Zagora, recorded 4,402 CL patients between October 2017 and end of March 2018. Our findings showed that 24 municipalities were affected and majority (55.1%) of infected cases belonged to the Tinzouline rural municipality. Majority of patients were females (57.2%). While all age group patients were affected, those aged <10 years were the most affected (42.1%). During this outbreak over 5 days in December 2017, we conducted a survey in Tinzouline and recruited and sampled 114 CL patients to confirm CL diagnosis by parasitological (direct examination and culture) and molecular (ITS1-PCR) methods and identify the etiological agent of infection using ITS1-PCR-RFLP and sequencing. We completed a detailed questionnaire including clinical and epidemiological data for each patient and found 72.8% of patients presenting multiple lesions (≥2), with an average number of lesions of 5.16 ± 0.5. Lesions were more prevalent in the upper limbs, with the most common type being the ulcerocrusted lesion (60.5%). We detected no associations between lesion type and patients' sex or age.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Among 114 clinically diagnosed CL patients, we confirmed 90.35% and identified L. major as the species responsible for this outbreak. Self-medication using various products caused superinfection and inflammation of lesions and complicated the diagnosis and treatment. Thus, ZCL remains a major public health problem in the Zagora province, and commitment of all stakeholders is urgently required to implement a sustainable regional control program.

Management of Leishmaniases in the Era of Climate Change in Morocco

The proliferation of vector-borne diseases are predicted to increase in a changing climate and Leishmaniases, as a vector-borne diseases, are re-emerging diseases in several regions of the world. In Morocco, during the last decade, a sharp increase in cutaneous leishmaniases cases has been reported. Nevertheless, in Morocco, leishmaniases are a major public health problem, and little interest was given to climate change impacts on the distribution and spread of these diseases. As insect-borne diseases, the incidence and distribution of leishmaniases are influenced by environmental changes, but also by several socio-economic and cultural factors. From a biological point of view, environmental variables have effects on the survival of insect vectors and mammalian reservoirs, which, in turn, affects transmission. Here, we highlight the effects of climate change in Morocco and discuss its consequences on the epidemiology of leishmaniases to identify challenges and define targeted recommendations to fight this disease.

Forecasting zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis using meteorological factors in eastern Fars province, Iran: a SARIMA analysis

OBJECTIVES

To predict the occurrence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) and evaluate the effect of climatic variables on disease incidence in the east of Fars province, Iran using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model.

METHODS

The Box-Jenkins approach was applied to fit the SARIMA model for ZCL incidence from 2004 to 2015. Then the model was used to predict the number of ZCL cases for the year 2016. Finally, we assessed the relation of meteorological variables (rainfall, rainy days, temperature, hours of sunshine and relative humidity) with ZCL incidence.

RESULTS

SARIMA(2,0,0) (2,1,0)12 was the preferred model for predicting ZCL incidence in the east of Fars province (validation Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.27). It showed that ZCL incidence in a given month can be estimated by the number of cases occurring 1 and 2 months, as well as 12 and 24 months earlier. The predictive power of SARIMA models was improved by the inclusion of rainfall at a lag of 2 months (β = -0.02), rainy days at a lag of 2 months (β = -0.09) and relative humidity at a lag of 8 months (β = 0.13) as external regressors (P-values < 0.05). The latter was the best climatic variable for predicting ZCL cases (validation RMSE = 0.26).

CONCLUSIONS

Time series models can be useful tools to predict the trend of ZCL in Fars province, Iran; thus, they can be used in the planning of public health programmes. Introducing meteorological variables into the models may improve their precision.

Climate and environmental factors affecting the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan, Iran

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne human disease caused by Leishmania, a parasite transmitted by sand flies. CL is endemic in the Isfahan Province, Iran. This study was designed to identify the climate and environmental factors associated with CL incidence in Isfahan Province. Data included incident cases of CL, climate, and environmental factors, which were collected across 23 districts of province from 2007 to 2015. Analyses were performed with generalized linear models (GLMs) to fit a function to the relationships between the response and predictors. We used negative binomial regression due to over-dispersed distribution of CL cases. The effects of all seven climate and environmental factors were found to be significant (all p < 0.01), and the model explained 40% of the deviance of CL incidence. There was a positive relation between mean temperature, relative humidity, and slope of area with disease incidence; however, negative association was demonstrated between maximum wind speed, rainfall, altitude, and vegetation cover with CL incidence. Cutaneous leishmaniasis continues to be a widespread challenge, especially in northwestern parts of Iran. Climate and environmental factors should be considered when selecting the most appropriate strategies for preventing and controlling CL.

First detection of Leishmania DNA in Psammomys obesus and Psammomys vexillaris: Their potential involvement in the epidemiology of leishmaniasis in Tunisia

Leishmaniasis, a public health problem in Tunisia, are diseases caused by different Leishmania species. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is present from the North to the South under different forms, due to Leishmania (L.) major, L. infantum or L. tropica. Whereas, Psammomys (P.) obesus is the confirmed reservoir host of L. major, those of L. tropica and dermotropic L. infantum wait to be identified. Importantly, P. vexillaris species have been recently highlighted; however, no studies have been carried out to explore its potential role in leishmaniasis epidemiology. Seventy two rodents were collected from Central and South-West of Tunisia between 2007 and 2010. Using several methods, 43 animals were identified as P. obesus and 29 as P. vexillaris. Leishmania kinetoplast DNA was detected in liver samples by real-time PCR in 18 P. obesus and in 8 P. vexillaris. Then, the direct sequencing of the amplified internal transcribed spacer 1, allowed the identification of L. infantum DNA in five P. obesus and in three P. vexillaris, as well as L. tropica DNA in three other P. vexillaris. Whereas, PCR fluorescent fragment length analysis of the 7 spliced leaders, allowed identifying L. major among infected P. obesus and P. vexillaris, and interestingly co-infection (L. major/L. infantum) among two P. obesus. We report here for the first time, the infection of P. obesus, from Central Tunisia, by L. infantum. Suggesting that P. obesus the known reservoir host of L. major, may also serve as reservoir host for L. infantum and thus play a role in the spread of sporadic cutaneous or visceral leishmaniasis in this region. Of equal importance, this work establish for the first time, the natural infection of P. vexillaris by different Leishmania species, suggesting its potential epidemiological role as reservoir host.

Leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka: spatial distribution and seasonal variations from 2009 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Leishmaniasis is listed as one of the eight neglected tropical diseases by the World Health Organization and the number of cases in endemic areas has seen a sharp rise in the past decade. More alarmingly, reports have shown that leishmaniasis is spreading to non-endemic areas of the world due to co-infection with HIV. In Sri Lanka, leishmaniasis is considered as a notifiable disease from 2008 and has seen a rising trend of incidence since then. This is the first study describing the burden, seasonal variation and spatial distribution of leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka since the disease has been included as a notifiable disease.

METHODS

Data on health statistics from 2009 to 2016 were obtained from published databases maintained by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health in Sri Lanka. Climatic data for Sri Lanka were obtained from the Department of Meteorology and the populations in administrative districts were obtained from the Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka. Descriptive spatiotemporal analysis, correlation between leishmaniasis incidence and climatic variables were analyzed using SPSS statistical software.

RESULTS

The total number of people reported with leishmaniasis during the study period was 8487. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is the prominent form in Sri Lanka while few visceral and muco-cutaneous cases were reported. Although leishmaniasis patients were identified from all 25 districts in the island, almost 90% of the total caseload was reported from Anuradhapura, Hambantota, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala and Matara districts. The highest number of patients was reported from the Anuradhapura district and the highest incidence per 100,000 persons was reported from the Hambantota district. The disease has a seasonal trend, a peak of leishmaniasis occur in July to September in the north-central region and in October to December in the southern region. Maximum temperature, humidity and wind speed are significantly associated climatic variables with leishmaniasis in endemic regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Leishmaniasis is an emerging public health problem in north-central and southern Sri Lanka. Public awareness programs for the prevention and control of the disease in endemic regions are essential to reduce the incidence of leishmaniasis.

Natural infection of Ctenodactylus gundi by Leishmania major in Tunisia

Incriminating new rodent species, as reservoir hosts of Leishmania parasites is crucial for understanding the transmission cycle of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Tunisia. Ctenodactylus (C.) gundi was previously described as extremely abundant in all Tunisian Leishmania (L.) tropica foci in south Tunisia besides its presence in L. major endemic area. The aim of this study was to detect Leishmania species parasites among C. gundi in two endemic regions in Tunisia: Sidi Bouzid and Tataouine. Total DNA was isolated from the spleens and the livers of 92C. gundi. Leishmaniasis clinical manifestations were detected among 11 rodents (12%). Leishmania parasites were detected in 30 (32.6%) rodents using direct exam method. Leishmania DNA was detected in 40 (43.5%) C. gundi by combining results among spleens and livers using ITS1-PCR. Positive samples were confirmed to be L. major except for only one specimen which was L. tropica. These results demonstrated, for the first time, the high natural infection rate of C. gundi with L. major parasites in Tunisia. Hence, C. gundi should be considered as potential reservoir host of Leishmania parasites causing cutaneous leishmaniasis in Tunisia.

Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Prevalence Among Farmers in Central Tunisia, 2014

OBJECTIVE

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is endemic in central Tunisia and is more prevalent in rural agricultural areas. The aim of this work was to determine ZCL prevalence among farmers and to test their availability to take ownership of the problem and participate actively to fight and address the disease.

METHODS

A sample of farmers from Sidi Bouzid, central Tunisia, was selected randomly. Farmers were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire about ZCL lesion occurrence, its date of onset among family members, and the farmers' availability to contribute to fighting this disease.

RESULTS

ZCL occurred in at least one of the family members of 38.5% interviewed farmers. The disease was endemic with recurrent epidemics every 4 or 5 years. ZCL among farmers was associated with irrigation management. With regard to ZCL preventive measures, the majority of farmers agreed and expressed willingness to collaborate (93.1%), to follow health care facilities instructions (73.1%), and to join the nongovernmental organization (NGO) (56.9%). However, they did not agree to reduce irrigation activities mainly at night, to live far from their irrigated fields, or to sleep out of their houses at night.

CONCLUSIONS

ZCL is more prevalent in farmers engaged in irrigation activities. Farmers are not agreeable to reducing their activity to avoid exposure to the sand fly bites. Thus, population involvement and commitment is required to implement effective control measures to fight and address ZCL.

Modeling zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in central Tunisia from 2009-2015: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

Transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) depends on the presence, density and distribution of Leishmania major rodent reservoir and the development of these rodents is known to have a significant dependence on environmental and climate factors. ZCL in Tunisia is one of the most common forms of leishmaniasis. The aim of this paper was to build a regression model of ZCL cases to identify the relationship between ZCL occurrence and possible risk factors, and to develop a predicting model for ZCL's control and prevention purposes. Monthly reported ZCL cases, environmental and bioclimatic data were collected over 6 years (2009-2015). Three rural areas in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid were selected as the study area. Cross-correlation analysis was used to identify the relevant lagged effects of possible risk factors, associated with ZCL cases. Non-parametric modeling techniques known as generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied in this work. These techniques have the ability to approximate the relationship between the predictors (inputs) and the response variable (output), and express the relationship mathematically. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by Generalized cross-validation (GCV) score and residual test. There were a total of 1019 notified ZCL cases from July 2009 to June 2015. The results showed seasonal distribution of reported ZCL cases from August to January. The model highlighted that rodent density, average temperature, cumulative rainfall and average relative humidity, with different time lags, all play role in sustaining and increasing the ZCL incidence. The GAMM model could be applied to predict the occurrence of ZCL in central Tunisia and could help for the establishment of an early warning system to control and prevent ZCL in central Tunisia.

Environmental risk modelling and potential sand fly vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Chitral district: a leishmanial focal point of mount Tirich Mir, Pakistan

OBJECTIVE

To provide baseline information about suspected vectors and the incidence, distribution and an active zone of transmission for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Chitral, Pakistan, using GIS tools; and to investigate the role of environmental factors in the disease dynamics.

METHOD

Two surveys in 2014 and 2016 as a basis for choropleth and environmental risk mapping.

RESULTS

A total of 769 captured specimens yielded 14 Phlebotomus and six Sergentomyia species including two potential vectors of CL, i.e. Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus sergenti. P. papatasi (71%) was dominant, followed by P. sergenti (18%). A choropleth map generated in Arcmap 10.1 based on 1560 CL case reports displayed maximum prevalence (0.92-2.5%) in Ayun, Broz, Charun, Chitral 1 and 2 and Darosh 1 and 2 union councils. An environmental risk map constructed by MaxEnt 3.3.3 defined an active zone of transmission based on leishmaniasis occurrence records (n = 315). The analysis of variable contribution in MaxEnt indicates significance of elevation (54.4%), population density (23.3%) and land use/land cover (6.6%) in CL disease dynamics.

CONCLUSION

The probability of CL increases (0.6-1 on logistic scale) in severely deforested areas, in lowland valleys and in regions with high-population density.

A time series analysis of environmental and metrological factors impact on cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in an endemic area of Dehloran, Iran

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the environmental and metrological variables and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) transmission and its prediction in a region susceptible to this disease prevalence using a time series model. The accurate locations of 4437 CL diagnosed from 2011 to 2015 were obtained to be used in the time series model. Temperature, number of days with temperature over 30 °C, and number of earthquake were related to CL incidence using the Seasonal Auto-correlated Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model according to the Box-Jenkins method. In addition, the relationship between land use and surface soil type in 500- and 1000-m radius around the CL patients were investigated. The SARIMA models showed significant associations between environmental and meteorological variables and CL incidence adjusted for seasonality and auto-correlation. The result indicated that there are need more robust preventive programs in earthquake-prone areas with high temperature and inceptisol soil type than other areas. In addition, the region with these characteristics should be considered as high-risk areas for CL prevalence.

Spatially Correlated Time Series and Ecological Niche Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan

Leishmaniasis is the third most common vector-borne disease and a very important protozoan infection. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of the most common types of leishmaniasis infectious diseases with up to 1.2 million occurrences of new cases each year worldwide. A dynamic transmission multivariate time series model was applied to the data to account for overdispersion and evaluate the effects of three environmental layers as well as seasonality in the data. Furthermore, ecological niche modeling was used to study the geographically suitable conditions for cutaneous leishmaniasis using temperature, precipitation and altitude as environmental layers, together with the leishmaniasis presence data. A retrospective analysis of the cutaneous leishmaniasis spatial data in Afghanistan between 2003 and 2009 indicates a steady increase from 2003 to 2007, a small decrease in 2008, and then another increase in 2009. An upward trend and regularly repeating patterns of highs and lows were observed related to the months of the year, which suggests seasonality effect in the data. Two peaks were observed in the disease occurrence—January to March and September to December—which coincide with the cold period. Ecological niche modelling indicates that precipitation has the greatest contribution to the potential distribution of leishmaniasis.

Molecular Characterization of Leishmania Parasites in Giemsa-Stained Slides from Cases of Human Cutaneous and Visceral Leishmaniasis, Eastern Algeria

BACKGROUND

In Algeria, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is due to Leishmania (L.) infantum, while three cutaneous forms (CL) are caused by Leishmania major, Leishmania tropica and Leishmania infantum. In this study, the use of Giemsa-stained slides was evaluated with two PCR techniques, in Eastern Algeria.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 136 samples corresponding to 100 CL smears (skin scrapings) and 36 VL slides (bone marrow aspirates) collected from 2008 to 2014 were tested. Upon DNA extraction, two PCRs were used to amplify the ribosomal Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS1) and mini-exon genes. Amplified products were digested (PCR-RFLP) and profiles analyzed for Leishmania species identification. A statistical analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

ITS1-PCR was found significantly more sensitive than mini-exon-PCR (77.95% positives vs. 67.65%; p = 0.001). Comparison of PCR positivity showed statistically significant differences between old and recently prepared slides suggesting a better use of recent slides in PCR analyses. For species identification, PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) results of ITS1 and mini-exon were concordant. L. infantum was identified from VL cases and L. infantum, L. major, and L. tropica from CL ones. According to geographical origin, L. infantum was found in North-Eastern provinces, while L. major was distributed from the North to the Center-East of Algeria. Interestingly, two L. tropica samples were identified in Annaba, located far North-East Algeria.

CONCLUSION

Distribution of leishmaniasis in Eastern parts of Algeria, besides finding of L. tropica in the far North, is in this study described for the first time using molecular tools, thus confirming the usefulness of slides for PCR identification of Leishmania parasites in retrospective epidemiological investigations.

Joint spatial time-series epidemiological analysis of malaria and cutaneous leishmaniasis infection

Malaria and leishmaniasis are among the two most important health problems of many developing countries especially in the Middle East and North Africa. It is common for vector-borne infectious diseases to have similar hotspots which may be attributed to the overlapping ecological distribution of the vector. Hotspot analyses were conducted to simultaneously detect the location of local hotspots and test their statistical significance. Spatial scan statistics were used to detect and test hotspots of malaria and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Afghanistan in 2009. A multivariate negative binomial model was used to simultaneously assess the effects of environmental variables on malaria and CL. In addition to the dependency between malaria and CL disease counts, spatial and temporal information were also incorporated in the model. Results indicated that malaria and CL incidence peaked at the same periods. Two hotspots were detected for malaria and three for CL. The findings in the current study show an association between the incidence of malaria and CL in the studied areas of Afghanistan. The incidence of CL disease in a given month is linked with the incidence of malaria in the previous month. Co-existence of malaria and CL within the same geographical area was supported by this study, highlighting the presence and effects of environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation. People living in areas with malaria are at increased risk for leishmaniasis infection. Local healthcare authorities should consider the co-infection problem by recommending systematic malaria screening for all CL patients.

Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk.

Humidity: A review and primer on atmospheric moisture and human health

Research examining associations between weather and human health frequently includes the effects of atmospheric humidity. A large number of humidity variables have been developed for numerous purposes, but little guidance is available to health researchers regarding appropriate variable selection. We examine a suite of commonly used humidity variables and summarize both the medical and biometeorological literature on associations between humidity and human health. As an example of the importance of humidity variable selection, we correlate numerous hourly humidity variables to daily respiratory syncytial virus isolates in Singapore from 1992 to 1994. Most water-vapor mass based variables (specific humidity, absolute humidity, mixing ratio, dewpoint temperature, vapor pressure) exhibit comparable correlations. Variables that include a thermal component (relative humidity, dewpoint depression, saturation vapor pressure) exhibit strong diurnality and seasonality. Humidity variable selection must be dictated by the underlying research question. Despite being the most commonly used humidity variable, relative humidity should be used sparingly and avoided in cases when the proximity to saturation is not medically relevant. Care must be taken in averaging certain humidity variables daily or seasonally to avoid statistical biasing associated with variables that are inherently diurnal through their relationship to temperature.

Natural infection of Algerian hedgehog, Atelerix algirus (Lereboullet 1842) with Leishmania parasites in Tunisia

In Tunisia, Leishmania parasites are responsible of visceral leishmaniasis, caused by Leishmania infantum species while three cutaneous disease forms are documented: chronic cutaneous leishmaniasis due to Leishmania killicki, sporadic cutaneous form (SCL) caused by L. infantum and the predominant zoonotic cutaneous leishmanaisis (ZCL) due to Leishmania major. ZCL reservoirs are rodents of the Psammomys and Meriones genera, while for SCL the dog is supposed to be a reservoir. Ctenodactylus gundii is involved in the transmission of L. killicki. However, other mammals could constitute potential reservoir hosts in Tunisia and other North African countries. In order to explore the role of hedgehogs as potential reservoirs of leishmaniasis, specimens (N=6) were captured during July-November period in 2011-2013 in an SCL endemic area in El Kef region, North-Western Tunisia. Using morphological characteristics, all specimens were described and measured. Biopsies from liver, heart, kidney and spleen of each animal were used to extract genomic DNA, which was further used in PCR assays to assess the presence of Leishmania parasites. Different PCRs targeting kinetoplast minicircles, ITS1, mini-exon genes and a repetitive Leishmania- specific sequence, were applied. To further identify Leishmania species involved, RFLP analysis of amplified fragments was performed with appropriate restriction enzymes. Using morphological characters, animals were identified as North African hedgehogs, also called Algerian hedgehogs, that belong to the Erinaceidae family, genus Atelerix Pomel 1848, and species algirus (Lereboullet, 1842). PCR results showed in total that all specimens were Leishmania infected, with different organs incriminated, mainly liver and spleen. Results were confirmed by direct sequencing of amplified fragments. Species identification showed that all specimens were infected with L. major, three of which were additionally co-infected with L. infantum. The present study demonstrates, for the first time in Tunisia, natural infection of hedgehog animals (Atelerix algirus) by the Leishmania parasites species L. major and L. infantum. L. major is also detected for the first time in wild animals captured in the North Western part of the country; likewise for the co-infection of these animals by the 2 Leishmania species. This mammal could play a potential reservoir role in epidemiology of SCL or ZCL and could contribute to emergence or extension of ZCL in the studied region.

Spatio-temporal Genetic Structuring of Leishmania major in Tunisia by Microsatellite Analysis

In Tunisia, cases of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major are increasing and spreading from the south-west to new areas in the center. To improve the current knowledge on L. major evolution and population dynamics, we performed multi-locus microsatellite typing of human isolates from Tunisian governorates where the disease is endemic (Gafsa, Kairouan and Sidi Bouzid governorates) and collected during two periods: 1991–1992 and 2008–2012. Analysis (F-statistics and Bayesian model-based approach) of the genotyping results of isolates collected in Sidi Bouzid in 1991–1992 and 2008–2012 shows that, over two decades, in the same area, Leishmania parasites evolved by generating genetically differentiated populations. The genetic patterns of 2008–2012 isolates from the three governorates indicate that L. major populations did not spread gradually from the south to the center of Tunisia, according to a geographical gradient, suggesting that human activities might be the source of the disease expansion. The genotype analysis also suggests previous (Bayesian model-based approach) and current (F-statistics) flows of genotypes between governorates and districts. Human activities as well as reservoir dynamics and the effects of environmental changes could explain how the disease progresses. This study provides new insights into the evolution and spread of L. major in Tunisia that might improve our understanding of the parasite flow between geographically and temporally distinct populations.

In Tunisia, zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) constitutes a significant public health problem. Since 1884, the Gafsa, Kairouan and Sidi Bouzid governorates are the most endemic areas of ZCL. This study used a multi-locus microsatellite typing approach to study the evolution and the population dynamics of Leishmania major in Tunisia. Within the same area, in twenty years, parasite populations evolved by producing a genetically differentiated population, probably better adapted to the ecosystem. In agreement with the reported human cases of ZCL, the genetic data on samples from the three governorates shows that the disease did not spread according to a geographical gradient. Furthermore, L. major flows seem to still occur between governorates and neighboring districts. This study suggests that environmental changes, human activities and reservoir systems have influenced the spread and evolution of L. major populations. Our findings provide important knowledge on the epidemiology of L. major in Tunisia and might help understanding why the disease is still spreading from the south to the center, despite the control measures that have been put into place.

Control of cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in south-eastern Morocco

OBJECTIVE

The incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) caused by Leishmania major has increased in Morocco over the last decade, prompting the Ministry of Health to take intersectoral response measures including vector and reservoir control. The aim of this article was to describe the CL outbreak response measures taken in the province of Errachidia, where the reservoir of L. major, a sand rat (Meriones shawi), was targeted using strychnine-poisoned wheat baits from 2010 to 2012.

METHOD

We analysed routine surveillance data and other information using the data of the CL control programme.

RESULTS

We present data on the evolution and the extension of CL in this province as well as the epidemiological profile of the disease. Between 2004 and 2013, 7099 cases of CL were recorded in Errachidia Province, gradually affecting all districts. Our results demonstrate that more women were affected than men and that all age groups were represented.

CONCLUSION

Errachidia Province was the epicentre of the recent CL outbreak in Morocco. A notable decline in incidence rates was observed after 2011. The outbreak control measures may have contributed to this decline, as well as climatic trends or progressing herd immunity.

Dynamic Relations between Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Climatic Factors in Golestan Province, Iran

BACKGROUND

Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL), an important public health problem in Iran, is sensitive to climate conditions. This study aimed to examine dynamic relations between the climate factors and incidence of ZCL in Golestan Province, northern Iran during 2010-2012.

METHODS

Data of monthly climatic factors, including temperature variables, relative humidity variables, evaporation, total rainfall, and number of freezing and rainy days together with monthly ZCL incidence were used. Spear-man rank correlation was carried out to explain associations between the monthly ZCL incidence rate and climate factors at 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 months lagged periods. Pearson's correlation analysis was conducted to examine the type and strength of relationships between the spatially averaged climate factors and ZCL incidence rate in district level. Stepwise multiple regression was used to find the best combination of independent climatic variables, which predict the ZCL incidence.

RESULTS

Spearman correlation analysis indicated that the highest correlations between climate factors and monthly ZCL incidence were established when the climate time-series lagged the ZCL incidence series, especially two month prior to disease incidence. Based on the results of the both Spearman rank correlation and Pearson correlation analyses, ZCL incidences in Golestan Province tend to be more prevalent in areas with higher temperature, lower relative humidity, lower total rainfall, higher evaporation and lower number of rainy days. The results of stepwise regression analysis indicated that minimum temperature, mean humidity, and rainfall had considerable effect on ZCL incidence.

CONCLUSION

Climate factors are major determinants of ZCL incidence rate in Golestan Province and such climate conditions provide favourable conditions for propagation and transmission of ZCL in this endemic area.

Remote sensing, land cover changes, and vector-borne diseases: use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery to map the risk of occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Ghardaïa, Algeria

Ghardaïa, central Algeria, experienced a major outbreak of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in 2005. Two Leishmania species occur in this region: Leishmania major (MON-25) and Leishmania killicki (MON-301). The two species are transmitted respectively by the sandflies Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus sergenti and probably involve rodent reservoirs with different ecologies, suggesting distinct epidemiological patterns and distribution areas. The aims of this study were to establish risk maps for each Leishmania species in Ghardaïa, taking into account the specificities of their vectors and reservoirs biotopes, using land cover and topographical characteristics derived from remote sensing imagery. Using expert and bibliographic knowledge, habitats of vectors and reservoirs were mapped. Hazard maps, defined as areas of presence of both vectors and reservoirs, were then combined with vulnerability maps, defined as areas with human presence, to map the risk of CL occurrence due to each species. The vector habitat maps and risk maps were validated using available entomological data and epidemiological data. The results showed that remote sensing analysis can be used to map and differentiate risk areas for the two species causing CL and identify palm groves and areas bordering the river crossing the city as areas at risk of CL due to L. major, whereas more limited rocky hills on the outskirts of the city are identified as areas at risk of CL due to L. killicki. In the current context of urban development in Ghardaïa, this study provides useful information for the local authorities on the respective risk areas for CL caused by both parasites, in order to take prevention and control measures to prevent future CL outbreaks.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission.

METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000-2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases.

CONCLUSION

Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations.

Prevalence and determinants of Leishmania major infection in emerging and old foci in Tunisia

BACKGROUND

Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) due to Leishmania major (L. major) is still a serious public health problem in Tunisia. This study aimed to compare the prevalence and risk factors associated with L. major infection in old and new foci using leishmanin skin test (LST) in central Tunisia.

METHODS

A cross sectional household survey was carried out between January and May 2009 on a sample of 2686 healthy individuals aged between 5 and 65 years. We determined the prevalence of L. major infection using the LST. Risk factors of LST positivity were assessed using a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of LST positivity was 57% (95% CI: 53-59). The prevalence of L. major infection was significantly higher in the old focus (99%; 95% CI: 98-100) than in the emerging foci (43%; 95% CI: 39-46) (p = <0.001). Multivariate analysis of LST positivity risk factors showed that age, the nature of the foci (old/emerging), personal and family history of ZCL are determinants of positive LST results.

CONCLUSION

The results updated the current epidemiologic profile of ZLC in central Tunisia. Past history of transmission in a population should be considered as a potential confounder in future clinical trials for drugs and vaccines against L. major cutaneous leishmaniasis.

Global distribution maps of the leishmaniases

The leishmaniases are vector-borne diseases that have a broad global distribution throughout much of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Despite representing a significant public health burden, our understanding of the global distribution of the leishmaniases remains vague, reliant upon expert opinion and limited to poor spatial resolution. A global assessment of the consensus of evidence for leishmaniasis was performed at a sub-national level by aggregating information from a variety of sources. A database of records of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis occurrence was compiled from published literature, online reports, strain archives, and GenBank accessions. These, with a suite of biologically relevant environmental covariates, were used in a boosted regression tree modelling framework to generate global environmental risk maps for the leishmaniases. These high-resolution evidence-based maps can help direct future surveillance activities, identify areas to target for disease control and inform future burden estimation efforts.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa: a review

In North African countries, cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission has been increasing since the 1980s, with a significant increase in the incidence of cases and a spread of the geographical distribution. The disease currently represents a major public health problem with a productivity gap and an impediment for development, which results in dramatic socioeconomic and psycho-sanitary impacts. The incidence is more than thousands of cases every year in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. In Egypt, only a few dozen cases per year are reported, mainly in the Sinai Peninsula. Three Leishmania species, associated with distinct eco-epidemiological and clinical patterns, are involved, namely Leishmania infantum, L. major, and L. tropica. However, L. major is by far the most frequent in Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia, with more than 90% of the registered cases. It is mainly encountered in rural areas under semi-arid, arid and Saharan climates. Leishmania tropica is more prevalent in Morocco, reaching 30–40% of isolates in some districts. Much data is still missing concerning the risk factors of the infection and the lesion development, as well as vector and reservoir ecology and behavior. The knowledge of such parameters, following multidisciplinary and integrated approaches, is crucial for better management and control of the disease, that also faces a lack of resources and efficient control measures.