Pediatric ECG-Based Deep Learning to Predict Left Ventricular Dysfunction and Remodeling

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence-enhanced ECG analysis shows promise to detect ventricular dysfunction and remodeling in adult populations. However, its application to pediatric populations remains underexplored.

METHODS

A convolutional neural network was trained on paired ECG-echocardiograms (≤2 days apart) from patients ≤18 years of age without major congenital heart disease to detect human expert-classified greater than mild left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, hypertrophy, and dilation (individually and as a composite outcome). Model performance was evaluated on single ECG-echocardiogram pairs per patient at Boston Children's Hospital and externally at Mount Sinai Hospital using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).

RESULTS

The training cohort comprised 92 377 ECG-echocardiogram pairs (46 261 patients; median age, 8.2 years). Test groups included internal testing (12 631 patients; median age, 8.8 years; 4.6% composite outcomes), emergency department (2830 patients; median age, 7.7 years; 10.0% composite outcomes), and external validation (5088 patients; median age, 4.3 years; 6.1% composite outcomes) cohorts. Model performance was similar on internal test and emergency department cohorts, with model predictions of LV hypertrophy outperforming the pediatric cardiologist expert benchmark. Adding age and sex to the model added no benefit to model performance. When using quantitative outcome cutoffs, model performance was similar between internal testing (composite outcome: AUROC, 0.88, AUPRC, 0.43; LV dysfunction: AUROC, 0.92, AUPRC, 0.23; LV hypertrophy: AUROC, 0.88, AUPRC, 0.28; LV dilation: AUROC, 0.91, AUPRC, 0.47) and external validation (composite outcome: AUROC, 0.86, AUPRC, 0.39; LV dysfunction: AUROC, 0.94, AUPRC, 0.32; LV hypertrophy: AUROC, 0.84, AUPRC, 0.25; LV dilation: AUROC, 0.87, AUPRC, 0.33), with composite outcome negative predictive values of 99.0% and 99.2%, respectively. Saliency mapping highlighted ECG components that influenced model predictions (precordial QRS complexes for all outcomes; T waves for LV dysfunction). High-risk ECG features include lateral T-wave inversion (LV dysfunction), deep S waves in V1 and V2 and tall R waves in V6 (LV hypertrophy), and tall R waves in V4 through V6 (LV dilation).

CONCLUSIONS

This externally validated algorithm shows promise to inexpensively screen for LV dysfunction and remodeling in children, which may facilitate improved access to care by democratizing the expertise of pediatric cardiologists.

Automated Diagnostic Reports from Images of Electrocardiograms at the Point-of-Care

Timely and accurate assessment of electrocardiograms (ECGs) is crucial for diagnosing, triaging, and clinically managing patients. Current workflows rely on a computerized ECG interpretation using rule-based tools built into the ECG signal acquisition systems with limited accuracy and flexibility. In low-resource settings, specialists must review every single ECG for such decisions, as these computerized interpretations are not available. Additionally, high-quality interpretations are even more essential in such low-resource settings as there is a higher burden of accuracy for automated reads when access to experts is limited. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based systems have the prospect of greater accuracy yet are frequently limited to a narrow range of conditions and do not replicate the full diagnostic range. Moreover, these models often require raw signal data, which are unavailable to physicians and necessitate costly technical integrations that are currently limited. To overcome these challenges, we developed and validated a format-independent vision encoder-decoder model - ECG-GPT - that can generate free-text, expert-level diagnosis statements directly from ECG images. The model shows robust performance, validated on 2.6 million ECGs across 6 geographically distinct health settings: (1) 2 large and diverse US health systems- Yale-New Haven and Mount Sinai Health Systems, (2) a consecutive ECG dataset from a central ECG repository from Minas Gerais, Brazil, (3) the prospective cohort study, UK Biobank, (4) a Germany-based, publicly available repository, PTB-XL, and (5) a community hospital in Missouri. The model demonstrated consistently high performance (AUROC≥0.81) across a wide range of rhythm and conduction disorders. This can be easily accessed via a web-based application capable of receiving ECG images and represents a scalable and accessible strategy for generating accurate, expert-level reports from images of ECGs, enabling accurate triage of patients globally, especially in low-resource settings.

Derivation, External Validation and Clinical Implications of a deep learning approach for intracranial pressure estimation using non-cranial waveform measurements

Importance

Increased intracranial pressure (ICP) is associated with adverse neurological outcomes, but needs invasive monitoring.

Objective

Development and validation of an AI approach for detecting increased ICP (aICP) using only non-invasive extracranial physiological waveform data.

Design

Retrospective diagnostic study of AI-assisted detection of increased ICP. We developed an AI model using exclusively extracranial waveforms, externally validated it and assessed associations with clinical outcomes.

Setting

MIMIC-III Waveform Database (2000-2013), a database derived from patients admitted to an ICU in an academic Boston hospital, was used for development of the aICP model, and to report association with neurologic outcomes. Data from Mount Sinai Hospital (2020-2022) in New York City was used for external validation.

Participants

Patients were included if they were older than 18 years, and were monitored with electrocardiograms, arterial blood pressure, respiratory impedance plethysmography and pulse oximetry. Patients who additionally had intracranial pressure monitoring were used for development (N=157) and external validation (N=56). Patients without intracranial monitors were used for association with outcomes (N=1694).

Exposures

Extracranial waveforms including electrocardiogram, arterial blood pressure, plethysmography and SpO2.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Intracranial pressure > 15 mmHg. Measures were Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy at threshold of 0.5. We calculated odds ratios and p-values for phenotype association.

Results

The AUROC was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.90-0.91) on testing and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.80-0.80) on external validation. aICP had accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 73.8% (95% CI, 72.0%-75.6%), 99.5% (95% CI 99.3%-99.6%), and 76.9% (95% CI, 74.0-79.8%) on external validation. A ten-percentile increment was associated with stroke (OR=2.12; 95% CI, 1.27-3.13), brain malignancy (OR=1.68; 95% CI, 1.09-2.60), subdural hemorrhage (OR=1.66; 95% CI, 1.07-2.57), intracerebral hemorrhage (OR=1.18; 95% CI, 1.07-1.32), and procedures like percutaneous brain biopsy (OR=1.58; 95% CI, 1.15-2.18) and craniotomy (OR = 1.43; 95% CI, 1.12-1.84; P < 0.05 for all).

Conclusions and Relevance

aICP provides accurate, non-invasive estimation of increased ICP, and is associated with neurological outcomes and neurosurgical procedures in patients without intracranial monitoring.

Quantitative Prediction of Right Ventricular Size and Function From the ECG

BACKGROUND

Right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF) and end-diastolic volume (RVEDV) are not readily assessed through traditional modalities. Deep learning-enabled ECG analysis for estimation of right ventricular (RV) size or function is unexplored.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We trained a deep learning-ECG model to predict RV dilation (RVEDV >120 mL/m2), RV dysfunction (RVEF ≤40%), and numerical RVEDV and RVEF from a 12-lead ECG paired with reference-standard cardiac magnetic resonance imaging volumetric measurements in UK Biobank (UKBB; n=42 938). We fine-tuned in a multicenter health system (MSHoriginal [Mount Sinai Hospital]; n=3019) with prospective validation over 4 months (MSHvalidation; n=115). We evaluated performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for categorical and mean absolute error for continuous measures overall and in key subgroups. We assessed the association of RVEF prediction with transplant-free survival with Cox proportional hazards models. The prevalence of RV dysfunction for UKBB/MSHoriginal/MSHvalidation cohorts was 1.0%/18.0%/15.7%, respectively. RV dysfunction model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for UKBB/MSHoriginal/MSHvalidation cohorts was 0.86/0.81/0.77, respectively. The prevalence of RV dilation for UKBB/MSHoriginal/MSHvalidation cohorts was 1.6%/10.6%/4.3%. RV dilation model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for UKBB/MSHoriginal/MSHvalidation cohorts was 0.91/0.81/0.92, respectively. MSHoriginal mean absolute error was RVEF=7.8% and RVEDV=17.6 mL/m2. The performance of the RVEF model was similar in key subgroups including with and without left ventricular dysfunction. Over a median follow-up of 2.3 years, predicted RVEF was associated with adjusted transplant-free survival (hazard ratio, 1.40 for each 10% decrease; P=0.031).

CONCLUSIONS

Deep learning-ECG analysis can identify significant cardiac magnetic resonance imaging RV dysfunction and dilation with good performance. Predicted RVEF is associated with clinical outcome.

Peripheral Transcriptomics in Acute and Long-Term Kidney Dysfunction in SARS-CoV2 Infection

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV2 infection despite vaccination and leads to long-term kidney dysfunction. However, peripheral blood molecular signatures in AKI from COVID-19 and their association with long-term kidney dysfunction are yet unexplored.

Methods

In patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV2, we performed bulk RNA sequencing using peripheral blood mononuclear cells(PBMCs). We applied linear models accounting for technical and biological variability on RNA-Seq data accounting for false discovery rate (FDR) and compared functional enrichment and pathway results to a historical sepsis-AKI cohort. Finally, we evaluated the association of these signatures with long-term trends in kidney function.

Results

Of 283 patients, 106 had AKI. After adjustment for sex, age, mechanical ventilation, and chronic kidney disease (CKD), we identified 2635 significant differential gene expressions at FDR<0.05. Top canonical pathways were EIF2 signaling, oxidative phosphorylation, mTOR signaling, and Th17 signaling, indicating mitochondrial dysfunction and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress. Comparison with sepsis associated AKI showed considerable overlap of key pathways (48.14%). Using follow-up estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measurements from 115 patients, we identified 164/2635 (6.2%) of the significantly differentiated genes associated with overall decrease in long-term kidney function. The strongest associations were 'autophagy', 'renal impairment via fibrosis', and 'cardiac structure and function'.

Conclusions

We show that AKI in SARS-CoV2 is a multifactorial process with mitochondrial dysfunction driven by ER stress whereas long-term kidney function decline is associated with cardiac structure and function and immune dysregulation. Functional overlap with sepsis-AKI also highlights common signatures, indicating generalizability in therapeutic approaches.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Peripheral transcriptomic findings in acute and long-term kidney dysfunction after hospitalization for SARS-CoV2 infection are unclear. We evaluated peripheral blood molecular signatures in AKI from COVID-19 (COVID-AKI) and their association with long-term kidney dysfunction using the largest hospitalized cohort with transcriptomic data. Analysis of 283 hospitalized patients of whom 37% had AKI, highlighted the contribution of mitochondrial dysfunction driven by endoplasmic reticulum stress in the acute stages. Subsequently, long-term kidney function decline exhibits significant associations with markers of cardiac structure and function and immune mediated dysregulation. There were similar biomolecular signatures in other inflammatory states, such as sepsis. This enhances the potential for repurposing and generalizability in therapeutic approaches.

Implications of the Use of Artificial Intelligence Predictive Models in Health Care Settings : A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Substantial effort has been directed toward demonstrating uses of predictive models in health care. However, implementation of these models into clinical practice may influence patient outcomes, which in turn are captured in electronic health record data. As a result, deployed models may affect the predictive ability of current and future models.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate changes in predictive model performance with use through 3 common scenarios: model retraining, sequentially implementing 1 model after another, and intervening in response to a model when 2 are simultaneously implemented.

DESIGN

Simulation of model implementation and use in critical care settings at various levels of intervention effectiveness and clinician adherence. Models were either trained or retrained after simulated implementation.

SETTING

Admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) at Mount Sinai Health System (New York, New York) and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, Massachusetts).

PATIENTS

130 000 critical care admissions across both health systems.

INTERVENTION

Across 3 scenarios, interventions were simulated at varying levels of clinician adherence and effectiveness.

MEASUREMENTS

Statistical measures of performance, including threshold-independent (area under the curve) and threshold-dependent measures.

RESULTS

At fixed 90% sensitivity, in scenario 1 a mortality prediction model lost 9% to 39% specificity after retraining once and in scenario 2 a mortality prediction model lost 8% to 15% specificity when created after the implementation of an acute kidney injury (AKI) prediction model; in scenario 3, models for AKI and mortality prediction implemented simultaneously, each led to reduced effective accuracy of the other by 1% to 28%.

LIMITATIONS

In real-world practice, the effectiveness of and adherence to model-based recommendations are rarely known in advance. Only binary classifiers for tabular ICU admissions data were simulated.

CONCLUSION

In simulated ICU settings, a universally effective model-updating approach for maintaining model performance does not seem to exist. Model use may have to be recorded to maintain viability of predictive modeling.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences.

Comparing ChatGPT and GPT-4 performance in USMLE soft skill assessments

The United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) has been a subject of performance study for artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, their performance on questions involving USMLE soft skills remains unexplored. This study aimed to evaluate ChatGPT and GPT-4 on USMLE questions involving communication skills, ethics, empathy, and professionalism. We used 80 USMLE-style questions involving soft skills, taken from the USMLE website and the AMBOSS question bank. A follow-up query was used to assess the models' consistency. The performance of the AI models was compared to that of previous AMBOSS users. GPT-4 outperformed ChatGPT, correctly answering 90% compared to ChatGPT's 62.5%. GPT-4 showed more confidence, not revising any responses, while ChatGPT modified its original answers 82.5% of the time. The performance of GPT-4 was higher than that of AMBOSS's past users. Both AI models, notably GPT-4, showed capacity for empathy, indicating AI's potential to meet the complex interpersonal, ethical, and professional demands intrinsic to the practice of medicine.

Deep Learning on Electrocardiograms for Prediction of In-hospital Intradialytic Hypotension in Patients with ESKD

Intradialytic hypotension is common in patients who are on hemodialysis. We applied deep learning techniques to ECGs to predict patients at risk of IDH. The performance of the model was good with an AUC of 0.763 and AUPRC of 0.35.

A Novel ECG-Based Deep Learning Algorithm to Predict Cardiomyopathy in Patients With Premature Ventricular Complexes

BACKGROUND

Premature ventricular complexes (PVCs) are prevalent and, although often benign, they may lead to PVC-induced cardiomyopathy. We created a deep-learning algorithm to predict left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) reduction in patients with PVCs from a 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG).

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess a deep-learning model to predict cardiomyopathy among patients with PVCs.

METHODS

We used electronic medical records from 5 hospitals and identified ECGs from adults with documented PVCs. Internal training and testing were performed at one hospital. External validation was performed with the others. The primary outcome was first diagnosis of LVEF ≤40% within 6 months. The dataset included 383,514 ECGs, of which 14,241 remained for analysis. We analyzed area under the receiver operating curves and explainability plots for representative patients, algorithm prediction, PVC burden, and demographics in a multivariable Cox model to assess independent predictors for cardiomyopathy.

RESULTS

Among the 14,241-patient cohort (age 67.6 ± 14.8 years; female 43.8%; White 29.5%, Black 8.6%, Hispanic 6.5%, Asian 2.2%), 22.9% experienced reductions in LVEF to ≤40% within 6 months. The model predicted reductions in LVEF to ≤40% with area under the receiver operating curve of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77-0.81). The gradient weighted class activation map explainability framework highlighted the sinus rhythm QRS complex-ST segment. In patients who underwent successful PVC ablation there was a post-ablation improvement in LVEF with resolution of cardiomyopathy in most (89%) patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Deep-learning on the 12-lead ECG alone can accurately predict new-onset cardiomyopathy in patients with PVCs independent of PVC burden. Model prediction performed well across sex and race, relying on the QRS complex/ST-segment in sinus rhythm, not PVC morphology.

Interatrial Block Association With Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients Without a History of Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Interatrial block (IAB) is associated with thromboembolism and atrial arrhythmias. However, prior studies included small patient cohorts so it remains unclear whether IAB predicts adverse outcomes particularly in context of atrial fibrillation (AF)/atrial flutter (AFL).

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine whether IAB portends increased stroke risk in a large cohort in the presence or absence of AFAF/AFL.

METHODS

We performed a 5-center retrospective analysis of 4,837,989 electrocardiograms (ECGs) from 1,228,291 patients. IAB was defined as P-wave duration ≥120 ms in leads II, III, or aVF. Measurements were extracted as .XML files. After excluding patients with prior AF/AFL, 1,825,958 ECGs from 458,994 patients remained. Outcomes were analyzed using restricted mean survival time analysis and restricted mean time lost.

RESULTS

There were 86,317 patients with IAB and 355,032 patients without IAB. IAB prevalence in the cohort was 19.6% and was most common in Black (26.1%), White (20.9%), and Hispanic (18.5%) patients and least prevalent in Native Americans (9.2%). IAB was independently associated with increased stroke probability (restricted mean time lost ratio coefficient [RMTLRC]: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.35-1.51; tau = 1,895), mortality (RMTLRC: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.07-1.21; tau = 1,924), heart failure (RMTLRC: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.83-2.04; tau = 1,921), systemic thromboembolism (RMTLRC: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.53-1.71; tau = 1,897), and incident AF/AFL (RMTLRC: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10-1.22; tau = 1,888). IAB was not associated with stroke in patients with pre-existing AF/AFL.

CONCLUSIONS

IAB is independently associated with stroke in patients with no history of AF/AFL even after adjustment for incident AF/AFL and CHA2DS2-VASc score. Patients are at increased risk of stroke even when AF/AFL is not identified.

Proteomic characterization of acute kidney injury in patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV2 infection

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a known complication of COVID-19 and is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Unbiased proteomics using biological specimens can lead to improved risk stratification and discover pathophysiological mechanisms.

METHODS

Using measurements of ~4000 plasma proteins in two cohorts of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we discovered and validated markers of COVID-associated AKI (stage 2 or 3) and long-term kidney dysfunction. In the discovery cohort (N = 437), we identified 413 higher plasma abundances of protein targets and 30 lower plasma abundances of protein targets associated with COVID-AKI (adjusted p < 0.05). Of these, 62 proteins were validated in an external cohort (p < 0.05, N = 261).

RESULTS

We demonstrate that COVID-AKI is associated with increased markers of tubular injury (NGAL) and myocardial injury. Using estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) measurements taken after discharge, we also find that 25 of the 62 AKI-associated proteins are significantly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR (adjusted p < 0.05). Proteins most strongly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR included desmocollin-2, trefoil factor 3, transmembrane emp24 domain-containing protein 10, and cystatin-C indicating tubular dysfunction and injury.

CONCLUSIONS

Using clinical and proteomic data, our results suggest that while both acute and long-term COVID-associated kidney dysfunction are associated with markers of tubular dysfunction, AKI is driven by a largely multifactorial process involving hemodynamic instability and myocardial damage.

A foundational vision transformer improves diagnostic performance for electrocardiograms

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a ubiquitous diagnostic modality. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) applied towards ECG analysis require large sample sizes, and transfer learning approaches for biomedical problems may result in suboptimal performance when pre-training is done on natural images. We leveraged masked image modeling to create a vision-based transformer model, HeartBEiT, for electrocardiogram waveform analysis. We pre-trained this model on 8.5 million ECGs and then compared performance vs. standard CNN architectures for diagnosis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, low left ventricular ejection fraction and ST elevation myocardial infarction using differing training sample sizes and independent validation datasets. We find that HeartBEiT has significantly higher performance at lower sample sizes compared to other models. We also find that HeartBEiT improves explainability of diagnosis by highlighting biologically relevant regions of the EKG vs. standard CNNs. Domain specific pre-trained transformer models may exceed the classification performance of models trained on natural images especially in very low data regimes. The combination of the architecture and such pre-training allows for more accurate, granular explainability of model predictions.

Quantitative prediction of right ventricular and size and function from the electrocardiogram

Background

Right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF) and end-diastolic volume (RVEDV) are not readily assessed through traditional modalities. Deep-learning enabled 12-lead electrocardiogram analysis (DL-ECG) for estimation of RV size or function is unexplored.

Methods

We trained a DL-ECG model to predict RV dilation (RVEDV>120 mL/m2), RV dysfunction (RVEF≤40%), and numerical RVEDV/RVEF from 12-lead ECG paired with reference-standard cardiac MRI (cMRI) volumetric measurements in UK biobank (UKBB; n=42,938). We fine-tuned in a multi-center health system (MSHoriginal; n=3,019) with prospective validation over 4 months (MSHvalidation; n=115). We evaluated performance using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for categorical and mean absolute error (MAE) for continuous measures overall and in key subgroups. We assessed association of RVEF prediction with transplant-free survival with Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

Prevalence of RV dysfunction for UKBB/MSHoriginal/MSHvalidation cohorts was 1.0%/18.0%/15.7%, respectively. RV dysfunction model AUROC for UKBB/MSHoriginal/MSHvalidation cohorts was 0.86/0.81/0.77, respectively. Prevalence of RV dilation for UKBB/MSHoriginal/MSHvalidation cohorts was 1.6%/10.6%/4.3%. RV dilation model AUROC for UKBB/MSHoriginal/MSHvalidation cohorts 0.91/0.81/0.92, respectively. MSHoriginal MAE was RVEF=7.8% and RVEDV=17.6 ml/m2. Performance was similar in key subgroups including with and without left ventricular dysfunction. Over median follow-up of 2.3 years, predicted RVEF was independently associated with composite outcome (HR 1.37 for each 10% decrease, p=0.046).

Conclusions

DL-ECG analysis can accurately identify significant RV dysfunction and dilation both overall and in key subgroups. Predicted RVEF is independently associated with clinical outcome.

Proteomic Characterization of Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Hospitalized with SARS-CoV2 Infection

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a known complication of COVID-19 and is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Unbiased proteomics using biological specimens can lead to improved risk stratification and discover pathophysiological mechanisms. Methods Using measurements of ~4000 plasma proteins in two cohorts of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we discovered and validated markers of COVID-associated AKI (stage 2 or 3) and long-term kidney dysfunction. In the discovery cohort (N= 437), we identified 413 higher plasma abundances of protein targets and 40 lower plasma abundances of protein targets associated with COVID-AKI (adjusted p <0.05). Of these, 62 proteins were validated in an external cohort (p <0.05, N =261). Results We demonstrate that COVID-AKI is associated with increased markers of tubular injury ( NGAL ) and myocardial injury. Using estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) measurements taken after discharge, we also find that 25 of the 62 AKI-associated proteins are significantly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR (adjusted p <0.05). Proteins most strongly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR included desmocollin-2 , trefoil factor 3 , transmembrane emp24 domain-containing protein 10 , and cystatin-C indicating tubular dysfunction and injury. Conclusions Using clinical and proteomic data, our results suggest that while both acute and long-term COVID-associated kidney dysfunction are associated with markers of tubular dysfunction, AKI is driven by a largely multifactorial process involving hemodynamic instability and myocardial damage.

Multi-center retrospective cohort study applying deep learning to electrocardiograms to identify left heart valvular dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Aortic Stenosis and Mitral Regurgitation are common valvular conditions representing a hidden burden of disease within the population. The aim of this study was to develop and validate deep learning-based screening and diagnostic tools that can help guide clinical decision making.

METHODS

In this multi-center retrospective cohort study, we acquired Transthoracic Echocardiogram reports from five Mount Sinai hospitals within New York City representing a demographically diverse cohort of patients. We developed a Natural Language Processing pipeline to extract ground-truth labels about valvular status and paired these to Electrocardiograms (ECGs). We developed and externally validated deep learning models capable of detecting valvular disease, in addition to considering scenarios of clinical deployment.

RESULTS

We use 617,338 ECGs paired to transthoracic echocardiograms from 123,096 patients to develop a deep learning model for detection of Mitral Regurgitation. Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) is 0.88 (95% CI:0.88-0.89) in internal testing, and 0.81 (95% CI:0.80-0.82) in external validation. To develop a model for detection of Aortic Stenosis, we use 617,338 Echo-ECG pairs for 128,628 patients. AUROC is 0.89 (95% CI: 0.88-0.89) in internal testing, going to 0.86 (95% CI: 0.85-0.87) in external validation. The model's performance increases leading up to the time of the diagnostic echo, and it performs well in validation against requirement of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

Deep learning based tools can increase the amount of information extracted from ubiquitous investigations such as the ECG. Such tools are inexpensive, can help in earlier disease detection, and potentially improve prognosis.

Enhancing convolutional neural network predictions of electrocardiograms with left ventricular dysfunction using a novel sub-waveform representation

Background

Electrocardiogram (ECG) deep learning (DL) has promise to improve the outcomes of patients with cardiovascular abnormalities. In ECG DL, researchers often use convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and traditionally use the full duration of raw ECG waveforms that create redundancies in feature learning and result in inaccurate predictions with large uncertainties.

Objective

For enhancing these predictions, we introduced a sub-waveform representation that leverages the rhythmic pattern of ECG waveforms (data-centric approach) rather than changing the CNN architecture (model-centric approach).

Results

We applied the proposed representation to a population with 92,446 patients to identify left ventricular dysfunction. We found that the sub-waveform representation increases the performance metrics compared to the full-waveform representation. We observed a 2% increase for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and 10% increase for area under the precision-recall curve. We also carefully examined three reliability components of explainability, interpretability, and fairness. We provided an explanation for enhancements obtained by heartbeat alignment mechanism. By developing a new scoring system, we interpreted the clinical relevance of ECG features and showed that sub-waveform representation further pushes the scores towards clinical predictions. Finally, we showed that the new representation significantly reduces prediction uncertainties within subgroups that contributes to individual fairness.

Conclusion

We expect that this added control over the granularity of ECG data will improve the DL modeling for new artificial intelligence technologies in the cardiovascular space.

Automated Determination of Left Ventricular Function Using Electrocardiogram Data in Patients on Maintenance Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Left ventricular ejection fraction is disrupted in patients on maintenance hemodialysis and can be estimated using deep learning models on electrocardiograms. Smaller sample sizes within this population may be mitigated using transfer learning.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We identified patients on hemodialysis with transthoracic echocardiograms within 7 days of electrocardiogram using diagnostic/procedure codes. We developed four models: (1) trained from scratch in patients on hemodialysis, (2) pretrained on a publicly available set of natural images (ImageNet), (3) pretrained on all patients not on hemodialysis, and (4) pretrained on patients not on hemodialysis and fine-tuned on patients on hemodialysis. We assessed the ability of the models to classify left ventricular ejection fraction into clinically relevant categories of ≤40%, 41% to ≤50%, and >50%. We compared performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

We extracted 705,075 electrocardiogram:echocardiogram pairs for 158,840 patients not on hemodialysis used for development of models 3 and 4 and n=18,626 electrocardiogram:echocardiogram pairs for 2168 patients on hemodialysis for models 1, 2, and 4. The transfer learning model achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.86, 0.63, and 0.83 in predicting left ventricular ejection fraction categories of ≤40% (n=461), 41%-50% (n=398), and >50% (n=1309), respectively. For the same tasks, model 1 achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.74, 0.55, and 0.71, respectively; model 2 achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.71, 0.55, and 0.69, respectively, and model 3 achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.80, 0.51, and 0.77, respectively. We found that predictions of left ventricular ejection fraction by the transfer learning model were associated with mortality in a Cox regression with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.29 (95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.59).

CONCLUSION

A deep learning model can determine left ventricular ejection fraction for patients on hemodialysis following pretraining on electrocardiograms of patients not on hemodialysis. Predictions of low ejection fraction from this model were associated with mortality over a 5-year follow-up period.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2022_06_06_CJN16481221.mp3.

Proteomic Characterization of Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Hospitalized with SARS-CoV2 Infection.. [PMID: 36093350 PMCID: PMC9460972 DOI: 10.1101/2021.12.09.21267548]

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a known complication of COVID-19 and is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Unbiased proteomics using biological specimens can lead to improved risk stratification and discover pathophysiological mechanisms. Using measurements of ∼4000 plasma proteins in two cohorts of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we discovered and validated markers of COVID-associated AKI (stage 2 or 3) and long-term kidney dysfunction. In the discovery cohort (N= 437), we identified 413 higher plasma abundances of protein targets and 40 lower plasma abundances of protein targets associated with COVID-AKI (adjusted p <0.05). Of these, 62 proteins were validated in an external cohort (p <0.05, N =261). We demonstrate that COVID-AKI is associated with increased markers of tubular injury (NGAL) and myocardial injury. Using estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) measurements taken after discharge, we also find that 25 of the 62 AKI-associated proteins are significantly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR (adjusted p <0.05). Proteins most strongly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR included desmocollin-2, trefoil factor 3, transmembrane emp24 domain-containing protein 10, and cystatin-C indicating tubular dysfunction and injury. Using clinical and proteomic data, our results suggest that while both acute and long-term COVID-associated kidney dysfunction are associated with markers of tubular dysfunction, AKI is driven by a largely multifactorial process involving hemodynamic instability and myocardial damage.

Contrastive Learning Improves Critical Event Prediction in COVID-19 Patients

Deep Learning (DL) models typically require large-scale, balanced training data to be robust, generalizable, and effective in the context of healthcare. This has been a major issue for developing DL models for the coronavirus-disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic where data are highly class imbalanced. Conventional approaches in DL use cross-entropy loss (CEL) which often suffers from poor margin classification. We show that contrastive loss (CL) improves the performance of CEL especially in imbalanced electronic health records (EHR) data for COVID-19 analyses. We use a diverse EHR data set to predict three outcomes: mortality, intubation, and intensive care unit (ICU) transfer in hospitalized COVID-19 patients over multiple time windows. To compare the performance of CEL and CL, models are tested on the full data set and a restricted data set. CL models consistently outperform CEL models with differences ranging from 0.04 to 0.15 for AUPRC and 0.05 to 0.1 for AUROC.

Using Deep-Learning Algorithms to Simultaneously Identify Right and Left Ventricular Dysfunction From the Electrocardiogram

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to develop DL models capable of comprehensively quantifying left and right ventricular dysfunction from ECG data in a large, diverse population.

BACKGROUND

Rapid evaluation of left and right ventricular function using deep learning (DL) on electrocardiograms (ECGs) can assist diagnostic workflow. However, DL tools to estimate right- ventricular (RV) function do not exist, whereas those to estimate left ventricular (LV) function are restricted to quantification of very low LV function only.

METHODS

A multicenter study was conducted with data from 5 New York City hospitals: 4 for internal testing and 1 serving as external validation. We created novel DL models to classify left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) into categories derived from the latest universal definition of heart failure, estimate LVEF through regression, and predict a composite outcome of either RV systolic dysfunction or RV dilation.

RESULTS

We obtained echocardiogram LVEF estimates for 147,636 patients paired to 715,890 ECGs. We used natural language processing (NLP) to extract RV size and systolic function information from 404,502 echocardiogram reports paired to 761,510 ECGs for 148,227 patients. For LVEF classification in internal testing, area under curve (AUC) at detection of LVEF ≤40%, 40% < LVEF ≤50%, and LVEF >50% was 0.94 (95% CI: 0.94-0.94), 0.82 (95% CI: 0.81-0.83), and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.89-0.89), respectively. For external validation, these results were 0.94 (95% CI: 0.94-0.95), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.72-0.74), and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.87-0.88). For regression, the mean absolute error was 5.84% (95% CI: 5.82%-5.85%) for internal testing and 6.14% (95% CI: 6.13%-6.16%) in external validation. For prediction of the composite RV outcome, AUC was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.84-0.84) in both internal testing and external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

DL on ECG data can be used to create inexpensive screening, diagnostic, and predictive tools for both LV and RV dysfunction. Such tools may bridge the applicability of ECGs and echocardiography and enable prioritization of patients for further interventions for either sided failure progressing to biventricular disease.

Downregulation of exhausted cytotoxic T cells in gene expression networks of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) presents with fever, inflammation and pathology of multiple organs in individuals under 21 years of age in the weeks following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Although an autoimmune pathogenesis has been proposed, the genes, pathways and cell types causal to this new disease remain unknown. Here we perform RNA sequencing of blood from patients with MIS-C and controls to find disease-associated genes clustered in a co-expression module annotated to CD56dimCD57+ natural killer (NK) cells and exhausted CD8+ T cells. A similar transcriptome signature is replicated in an independent cohort of Kawasaki disease (KD), the related condition after which MIS-C was initially named. Probing a probabilistic causal network previously constructed from over 1,000 blood transcriptomes both validates the structure of this module and reveals nine key regulators, including TBX21, a central coordinator of exhausted CD8+ T cell differentiation. Together, this unbiased, transcriptome-wide survey implicates downregulation of NK cells and cytotoxic T cell exhaustion in the pathogenesis of MIS-C.

Predictive Approaches for Acute Dialysis Requirement and Death in COVID-19

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

AKI treated with dialysis initiation is a common complication of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among hospitalized patients. However, dialysis supplies and personnel are often limited.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Using data from adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from five hospitals from the Mount Sinai Health System who were admitted between March 10 and December 26, 2020, we developed and validated several models (logistic regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), random forest, and eXtreme GradientBoosting [XGBoost; with and without imputation]) for predicting treatment with dialysis or death at various time horizons (1, 3, 5, and 7 days) after hospital admission. Patients admitted to the Mount Sinai Hospital were used for internal validation, whereas the other hospitals formed part of the external validation cohort. Features included demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory and vital signs within 12 hours of hospital admission.

RESULTS

A total of 6093 patients (2442 in training and 3651 in external validation) were included in the final cohort. Of the different modeling approaches used, XGBoost without imputation had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve on internal validation (range of 0.93-0.98) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC; range of 0.78-0.82) for all time points. XGBoost without imputation also had the highest test parameters on external validation (AUROC range of 0.85-0.87, and AUPRC range of 0.27-0.54) across all time windows. XGBoost without imputation outperformed all models with higher precision and recall (mean difference in AUROC of 0.04; mean difference in AUPRC of 0.15). Features of creatinine, BUN, and red cell distribution width were major drivers of the model's prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

An XGBoost model without imputation for prediction of a composite outcome of either death or dialysis in patients positive for COVID-19 had the best performance, as compared with standard and other machine learning models.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2021_07_09_CJN17311120.mp3.

Development of a federated learning approach to predict acute kidney injury in adult hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in New York City

Federated learning is a technique for training predictive models without sharing patient-level data, thus maintaining data security while allowing inter-institutional collaboration. We used federated learning to predict acute kidney injury within three and seven days of admission, using demographics, comorbidities, vital signs, and laboratory values, in 4029 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 at five sociodemographically diverse New York City hospitals, between March-October 2020. Prediction performance of federated models was generally higher than single-hospital models and was comparable to pooled-data models. In the first use-case in kidney disease, federated learning improved prediction of a common complication of COVID-19, while preserving data privacy.

Relational Learning Improves Prediction of Mortality in COVID-19 in the Intensive Care Unit

Traditional Machine Learning (ML) models have had limited success in predicting Coronoavirus-19 (COVID-19) outcomes using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data partially due to not effectively capturing the inter-connectivity patterns between various data modalities. In this work, we propose a novel framework that utilizes relational learning based on a heterogeneous graph model (HGM) for predicting mortality at different time windows in COVID-19 patients within the intensive care unit (ICU). We utilize the EHRs of one of the largest and most diverse patient populations across five hospitals in major health system in New York City. In our model, we use an LSTM for processing time varying patient data and apply our proposed relational learning strategy in the final output layer along with other static features. Here, we replace the traditional softmax layer with a Skip-Gram relational learning strategy to compare the similarity between a patient and outcome embedding representation. We demonstrate that the construction of a HGM can robustly learn the patterns classifying patient representations of outcomes through leveraging patterns within the embeddings of similar patients. Our experimental results show that our relational learning-based HGM model achieves higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) than both comparator models in all prediction time windows, with dramatic improvements to recall.

Comparison of Approaches for Prediction of Renal Replacement Therapy-Free Survival in Patients with Acute Kidney Injury

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Acute kidney injury (AKI) in critically ill patients is common, and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is a preferred mode of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in hemodynamically unstable patients. Prediction of clinical outcomes in patients on CRRT is challenging. We utilized several approaches to predict RRT-free survival (RRTFS) in critically ill patients with AKI requiring CRRT.

METHODS

We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database to identify patients ≥18 years old with AKI on CRRT, after excluding patients who had ESRD on chronic dialysis, and kidney transplantation. We defined RRTFS as patients who were discharged alive and did not require RRT ≥7 days prior to hospital discharge. We utilized all available biomedical data up to CRRT initiation. We evaluated 7 approaches, including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and MLP with long short-term memory (MLP + LSTM). We evaluated model performance by using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS

Out of 684 patients with AKI on CRRT, 205 (30%) patients had RRTFS. The median age of patients was 63 years and their median Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II was 67 (interquartile range 52-84). The MLP + LSTM showed the highest AUROC (95% CI) of 0.70 (0.67-0.73), followed by MLP 0.59 (0.54-0.64), LR 0.57 (0.52-0.62), SVM 0.51 (0.46-0.56), AdaBoost 0.51 (0.46-0.55), RF 0.44 (0.39-0.48), and XGBoost 0.43 (CI 0.38-0.47).

CONCLUSIONS

A MLP + LSTM model outperformed other approaches for predicting RRTFS. Performance could be further improved by incorporating other data types.

Deep learning and the electrocardiogram: review of the current state-of-the-art

In the recent decade, deep learning, a subset of artificial intelligence and machine learning, has been used to identify patterns in big healthcare datasets for disease phenotyping, event predictions, and complex decision making. Public datasets for electrocardiograms (ECGs) have existed since the 1980s and have been used for very specific tasks in cardiology, such as arrhythmia, ischemia, and cardiomyopathy detection. Recently, private institutions have begun curating large ECG databases that are orders of magnitude larger than the public databases for ingestion by deep learning models. These efforts have demonstrated not only improved performance and generalizability in these aforementioned tasks but also application to novel clinical scenarios. This review focuses on orienting the clinician towards fundamental tenets of deep learning, state-of-the-art prior to its use for ECG analysis, and current applications of deep learning on ECGs, as well as their limitations and future areas of improvement.

Federated Learning of Electronic Health Records to Improve Mortality Prediction in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

Machine learning models require large datasets that may be siloed across different health care institutions. Machine learning studies that focus on COVID-19 have been limited to single-hospital data, which limits model generalizability.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to use federated learning, a machine learning technique that avoids locally aggregating raw clinical data across multiple institutions, to predict mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 within 7 days.

METHODS

Patient data were collected from the electronic health records of 5 hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System. Logistic regression with L1 regularization/least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models were trained by using local data at each site. We developed a pooled model with combined data from all 5 sites, and a federated model that only shared parameters with a central aggregator.

RESULTS

The LASSOfederated model outperformed the LASSOlocal model at 3 hospitals, and the MLPfederated model performed better than the MLPlocal model at all 5 hospitals, as determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The LASSOpooled model outperformed the LASSOfederated model at all hospitals, and the MLPfederated model outperformed the MLPpooled model at 2 hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

The federated learning of COVID-19 electronic health record data shows promise in developing robust predictive models without compromising patient privacy.

Contrastive Learning Improves Critical Event Prediction in COVID-19 Patients

Machine Learning (ML) models typically require large-scale, balanced training data to be robust, generalizable, and effective in the context of healthcare. This has been a major issue for developing ML models for the coronavirus-disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic where data is highly imbalanced, particularly within electronic health records (EHR) research. Conventional approaches in ML use cross-entropy loss (CEL) that often suffers from poor margin classification. For the first time, we show that contrastive loss (CL) improves the performance of CEL especially for imbalanced EHR data and the related COVID-19 analyses. This study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. We use EHR data from five hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS) to predict mortality, intubation, and intensive care unit (ICU) transfer in hospitalized COVID-19 patients over 24 and 48 hour time windows. We train two sequential architectures (RNN and RETAIN) using two loss functions (CEL and CL). Models are tested on full sample data set which contain all available data and restricted data set to emulate higher class imbalance.CL models consistently outperform CEL models with the restricted data set on these tasks with differences ranging from 0.04 to 0.15 for AUPRC and 0.05 to 0.1 for AUROC. For the restricted sample, only the CL model maintains proper clustering and is able to identify important features, such as pulse oximetry. CL outperforms CEL in instances of severe class imbalance, on three EHR outcomes with respect to three performance metrics: predictive power, clustering, and feature importance. We believe that the developed CL framework can be expanded and used for EHR ML work in general.

AKI in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Early reports indicate that AKI is common among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and associated with worse outcomes. However, AKI among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States is not well described.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational study involved a review of data from electronic health records of patients aged ≥18 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System from February 27 to May 30, 2020. We describe the frequency of AKI and dialysis requirement, AKI recovery, and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with mortality.

RESULTS

Of 3993 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, AKI occurred in 1835 (46%) patients; 347 (19%) of the patients with AKI required dialysis. The proportions with stages 1, 2, or 3 AKI were 39%, 19%, and 42%, respectively. A total of 976 (24%) patients were admitted to intensive care, and 745 (76%) experienced AKI. Of the 435 patients with AKI and urine studies, 84% had proteinuria, 81% had hematuria, and 60% had leukocyturia. Independent predictors of severe AKI were CKD, men, and higher serum potassium at admission. In-hospital mortality was 50% among patients with AKI versus 8% among those without AKI (aOR, 9.2; 95% confidence interval, 7.5 to 11.3). Of survivors with AKI who were discharged, 35% had not recovered to baseline kidney function by the time of discharge. An additional 28 of 77 (36%) patients who had not recovered kidney function at discharge did so on posthospital follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

AKI is common among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and is associated with high mortality. Of all patients with AKI, only 30% survived with recovery of kidney function by the time of discharge.

Practical consensus recommendations on management of HR + ve early breast cancer with specific reference to genomic profiling

Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease and patients are managed clinically based on ER, PR, HER2 expression, and key risk factors. The use of gene expression assays for early stage disease is already common practice. These tests have found a place in risk stratifying the heterogeneous group of stage I–II breast cancers for recurrence, for predicting chemotherapy response, and for predicting breast cancer-related mortality. Most guidelines for hormone receptor (HR)–positive early breast cancer recommend addition of adjuvant chemotherapy for most women, leading to overtreatment, which causes considerable morbidity and cost. Expert oncologist discussed about strategies of gene expression assays and aid in chemotherapy recommendations for treatment of HR + ve EBC and the expert group used data from published literature, practical experience and opinion of a large group of academic oncologists to arrive at this practical consensus recommendations for the benefit of community oncologists.

Retrospective cohort study of clinical characteristics of 2199 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in New York City

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health crisis, with over 33 million cases and 999 000 deaths worldwide. Data are needed regarding the clinical course of hospitalised patients, particularly in the USA. We aimed to compare clinical characteristic of patients with COVID-19 who had in-hospital mortality with those who were discharged alive.

DESIGN

Demographic, clinical and outcomes data for patients admitted to five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 between 27 February and 2 April 2020 were identified through institutional electronic health records. We performed a retrospective comparative analysis of patients who had in-hospital mortality or were discharged alive.

SETTING

All patients were admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System, a large quaternary care urban hospital system.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants over the age of 18 years were included.

PRIMARY OUTCOMES

We investigated in-hospital mortality during the study period.

RESULTS

A total of 2199 patients with COVID-19 were hospitalised during the study period. As of 2 April, 1121 (51%) patients remained hospitalised, and 1078 (49%) completed their hospital course. Of the latter, the overall mortality was 29%, and 36% required intensive care. The median age was 65 years overall and 75 years in those who died. Pre-existing conditions were present in 65% of those who died and 46% of those discharged. In those who died, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 11.7%, D-dimer was 2.4 μg/mL, C reactive protein was 162 mg/L and procalcitonin was 0.44 ng/mL. In those discharged, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 16.6%, D-dimer was 0.93 μg/mL, C reactive protein was 79 mg/L and procalcitonin was 0.09 ng/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort of hospitalised patients, requirement of intensive care and mortality were high. Patients who died typically had more pre-existing conditions and greater perturbations in inflammatory markers as compared with those who were discharged.

Machine Learning to Predict Mortality and Critical Events in a Cohort of Patients With COVID-19 in New York City: Model Development and Validation

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.

METHODS

We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.

RESULTS

Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.

Derivation and validation of genome-wide polygenic score for urinary tract stone diagnosis

Urinary tract stones have high heritability indicating a strong genetic component. However, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have uncovered only a few genome wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Polygenic risk scores (PRS) sum cumulative effect of many SNPs and shed light on underlying genetic architecture. Using GWAS summary statistics from 361,141 participants in the United Kingdom Biobank, we generated a PRS and determined association with stone diagnosis in 28,877 participants in the Mount Sinai BioMe Biobank. In BioMe (1,071 cases and 27,806 controls), for every standard deviation increase, we observed a significant increment in adjusted odds ratio of a factor of 1.2 (95% confidence interval 1.13-1.26). In comparison, a risk score comprised of GWAS significant SNPs was not significantly associated with diagnosis. After stratifying individuals into low and high-risk categories on clinical risk factors, there was a significant increment in adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (1.12-1.6) in the low- and 1.2 (1.1-1.2) in the high-risk group for every standard deviation increment in PRS. In a 14,348-participant validation cohort (Penn Medicine Biobank), every standard deviation increment was associated with a significant adjusted odds ratio of 1.1 (1.03 - 1.2). Thus, a genome-wide PRS is associated with urinary tract stones overall and in the absence of known clinical risk factors and illustrates their complex polygenic architecture.

Utilization of Deep Learning for Subphenotype Identification in Sepsis-Associated Acute Kidney Injury

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Sepsis-associated AKI is a heterogeneous clinical entity. We aimed to agnostically identify sepsis-associated AKI subphenotypes using deep learning on routinely collected data in electronic health records.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database, which consists of electronic health record data from intensive care units in a tertiary care hospital in the United States. We included patients ≥18 years with sepsis who developed AKI within 48 hours of intensive care unit admission. We then used deep learning to utilize all available vital signs, laboratory measurements, and comorbidities to identify subphenotypes. Outcomes were mortality 28 days after AKI and dialysis requirement.

RESULTS

We identified 4001 patients with sepsis-associated AKI. We utilized 2546 combined features for K-means clustering, identifying three subphenotypes. Subphenotype 1 had 1443 patients, and subphenotype 2 had 1898 patients, whereas subphenotype 3 had 660 patients. Subphenotype 1 had the lowest proportion of liver disease and lowest Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scores compared with subphenotypes 2 and 3. The proportions of patients with CKD were similar between subphenotypes 1 and 3 (15%) but highest in subphenotype 2 (21%). Subphenotype 1 had lower median bilirubin levels, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase compared with subphenotypes 2 and 3. Patients in subphenotype 1 also had lower median lactate, lactate dehydrogenase, and white blood cell count than patients in subphenotypes 2 and 3. Subphenotype 1 also had lower creatinine and BUN than subphenotypes 2 and 3. Dialysis requirement was lowest in subphenotype 1 (4% versus 7% [subphenotype 2] versus 26% [subphenotype 3]). The mortality 28 days after AKI was lowest in subphenotype 1 (23% versus 35% [subphenotype 2] versus 49% [subphenotype 3]). After adjustment, the adjusted odds ratio for mortality for subphenotype 3, with subphenotype 1 as a reference, was 1.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 2.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Utilizing routinely collected laboratory variables, vital signs, and comorbidities, we were able to identify three distinct subphenotypes of sepsis-associated AKI with differing outcomes.

Cytotoxic lymphocytes are dysregulated in multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) presents with fever, inflammation and multiple organ involvement in individuals under 21 years following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. To identify genes, pathways and cell types driving MIS-C, we sequenced the blood transcriptomes of MIS-C cases, pediatric cases of coronavirus disease 2019, and healthy controls. We define a MIS-C transcriptional signature partially shared with the transcriptional response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and with the signature of Kawasaki disease, a clinically similar condition. By projecting the MIS-C signature onto a co-expression network, we identified disease gene modules and found genes downregulated in MIS-C clustered in a module enriched for the transcriptional signatures of exhausted CD8 + T-cells and CD56 dim CD57 + NK cells. Bayesian network analyses revealed nine key regulators of this module, including TBX21 , a central coordinator of exhausted CD8 + T-cell differentiation. Together, these findings suggest dysregulated cytotoxic lymphocyte response to SARS-Cov-2 infection in MIS-C.

Federated Learning of Electronic Health Records Improves Mortality Prediction in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

Machine learning (ML) models require large datasets which may be siloed across different healthcare institutions. Using federated learning, a ML technique that avoids locally aggregating raw clinical data across multiple institutions, we predict mortality within seven days in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Patient data was collected from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) from five hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS). Logistic Regression with L1 regularization (LASSO) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models were trained using local data at each site, a pooled model with combined data from all five sites, and a federated model that only shared parameters with a central aggregator. Both the federated LASSO and federated MLP models performed better than their local model counterparts at four hospitals. The federated MLP model also outperformed the federated LASSO model at all hospitals. Federated learning shows promise in COVID-19 EHR data to develop robust predictive models without compromising patient privacy.

Prevalence and Impact of Myocardial Injury in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 Infection

BACKGROUND

The degree of myocardial injury, as reflected by troponin elevation, and associated outcomes among U.S. hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to describe the degree of myocardial injury and associated outcomes in a large hospitalized cohort with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients with COVID-19 admitted to 1 of 5 Mount Sinai Health System hospitals in New York City between February 27, 2020, and April 12, 2020, with troponin-I (normal value <0.03 ng/ml) measured within 24 h of admission were included (n = 2,736). Demographics, medical histories, admission laboratory results, and outcomes were captured from the hospitals' electronic health records.

RESULTS

The median age was 66.4 years, with 59.6% men. Cardiovascular disease (CVD), including coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure, was more prevalent in patients with higher troponin concentrations, as were hypertension and diabetes. A total of 506 (18.5%) patients died during hospitalization. In all, 985 (36%) patients had elevated troponin concentrations. After adjusting for disease severity and relevant clinical factors, even small amounts of myocardial injury (e.g., troponin I >0.03 to 0.09 ng/ml; n = 455; 16.6%) were significantly associated with death (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.37 to 2.24; p < 0.001) while greater amounts (e.g., troponin I >0.09 ng/dl; n = 530; 19.4%) were significantly associated with higher risk (adjusted HR: 3.03; 95% CI: 2.42 to 3.80; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Myocardial injury is prevalent among patients hospitalized with COVID-19; however, troponin concentrations were generally present at low levels. Patients with CVD are more likely to have myocardial injury than patients without CVD. Troponin elevation among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 is associated with higher risk of mortality.

Machine Learning in Cardiology-Ensuring Clinical Impact Lives Up to the Hype

Despite substantial advances in the study, treatment, and prevention of cardiovascular disease, numerous challenges relating to optimally screening, diagnosing, and managing patients remain. Simultaneous improvements in computing power, data storage, and data analytics have led to the development of new techniques to address these challenges. One powerful tool to this end is machine learning (ML), which aims to algorithmically identify and represent structure within data. Machine learning's ability to efficiently analyze large and highly complex data sets make it a desirable investigative approach in modern biomedical research. Despite this potential and enormous public and private sector investment, few prospective studies have demonstrated improved clinical outcomes from this technology. This is particularly true in cardiology, despite its emphasis on objective, data-driven results. This threatens to stifle ML's growth and use in mainstream medicine. We outline the current state of ML in cardiology and outline methods through which impactful and sustainable ML research can occur. Following these steps can ensure ML reaches its potential as a transformative technology in medicine.

Acute Kidney Injury in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE

Preliminary reports indicate that acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 patients and is associated with worse outcomes. AKI in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States is not well-described.

OBJECTIVE

To provide information about frequency, outcomes and recovery associated with AKI and dialysis in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

DESIGN

Observational, retrospective study.

SETTING

Admitted to hospital between February 27 and April 15, 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥18 years with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 Exposures: AKI (peak serum creatinine increase of 0.3 mg/dL or 50% above baseline). Main Outcomes and Measures: Frequency of AKI and dialysis requirement, AKI recovery, and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with mortality. We also trained and tested a machine learning model for predicting dialysis requirement with independent validation.

RESULTS

A total of 3,235 hospitalized patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. AKI occurred in 1406 (46%) patients overall and 280 (20%) with AKI required renal replacement therapy. The incidence of AKI (admission plus new cases) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit was 68% (553 of 815). In the entire cohort, the proportion with stages 1, 2, and 3 AKI were 35%, 20%, 45%, respectively. In those needing intensive care, the respective proportions were 20%, 17%, 63%, and 34% received acute renal replacement therapy. Independent predictors of severe AKI were chronic kidney disease, systolic blood pressure, and potassium at baseline. In-hospital mortality in patients with AKI was 41% overall and 52% in intensive care. The aOR for mortality associated with AKI was 9.6 (95% CI 7.4-12.3) overall and 20.9 (95% CI 11.7-37.3) in patients receiving intensive care. 56% of patients with AKI who were discharged alive recovered kidney function back to baseline. The area under the curve (AUC) for the machine learned predictive model using baseline features for dialysis requirement was 0.79 in a validation test.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

AKI is common in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, associated with worse mortality, and the majority of patients that survive do not recover kidney function. A machine-learned model using admission features had good performance for dialysis prediction and could be used for resource allocation.

Applications of machine learning methods in kidney disease: hope or hype?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The universal adoption of electronic health records, improvement in technology, and the availability of continuous monitoring has generated large quantities of healthcare data. Machine learning is increasingly adopted by nephrology researchers to analyze this data in order to improve the care of their patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

In this review, we provide a broad overview of the different types of machine learning algorithms currently available and how researchers have applied these methods in nephrology research. Current applications have included prediction of acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease along with progression of kidney disease. Researchers have demonstrated the ability of machine learning to read kidney biopsy samples, identify patient outcomes from unstructured data, and identify subtypes in complex diseases. We end with a discussion on the ethics and potential pitfalls of machine learning.

SUMMARY

Machine learning provides researchers with the ability to analyze data that were previously inaccessible. While still burgeoning, several studies show promising results, which will enable researchers to perform larger scale studies and clinicians the ability to provide more personalized care. However, we must ensure that implementation aids providers and does not lead to harm to patients.

Clinical Characteristics of Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients in New York City

Background

The coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic is a global public health crisis, with over 1.6 million cases and 95,000 deaths worldwide. Data are needed regarding the clinical course of hospitalized patients, particularly in the United States.

Methods

Demographic, clinical, and outcomes data for patients admitted to five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals with confirmed Covid-19 between February 27 and April 2, 2020 were identified through institutional electronic health records. We conducted a descriptive study of patients who had in-hospital mortality or were discharged alive.

Results

A total of 2,199 patients with Covid-19 were hospitalized during the study period. As of April 2 ^nd , 1,121 (51%) patients remained hospitalized, and 1,078 (49%) completed their hospital course. Of the latter, the overall mortality was 29%, and 36% required intensive care. The median age was 65 years overall and 75 years in those who died. Pre-existing conditions were present in 65% of those who died and 46% of those discharged. In those who died, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 11.7%, D-dimer was 2.4 ug/ml, C-reactive protein was 162 mg/L, and procalcitonin was 0.44 ng/mL. In those discharged, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 16.6%, D-dimer was 0.93 ug/ml, C-reactive protein was 79 mg/L, and procalcitonin was 0.09 ng/mL.

Conclusions

This is the largest and most diverse case series of hospitalized patients with Covid-19 in the United States to date. Requirement of intensive care and mortality were high. Patients who died typically had pre-existing conditions and severe perturbations in inflammatory markers.

Prevalence and Impact of Myocardial Injury in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 Infection

BACKGROUND

The degree of myocardial injury, reflected by troponin elevation, and associated outcomes among hospitalized patients with Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in the US are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the degree of myocardial injury and associated outcomes in a large hospitalized cohort with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients with COVID-19 admitted to one of five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals in New York City between February 27th and April 12th, 2020 with troponin-I (normal value <0.03ng/mL) measured within 24 hours of admission were included (n=2,736). Demographics, medical history, admission labs, and outcomes were captured from the hospital EHR.

RESULTS

The median age was 66.4 years, with 59.6% men. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) including coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure, was more prevalent in patients with higher troponin concentrations, as were hypertension and diabetes. A total of 506 (18.5%) patients died during hospitalization. Even small amounts of myocardial injury (e.g. troponin I 0.03-0.09ng/mL, n=455, 16.6%) were associated with death (adjusted HR: 1.77, 95% CI 1.39-2.26; P<0.001) while greater amounts (e.g. troponin I>0.09 ng/dL, n=530, 19.4%) were associated with more pronounced risk (adjusted HR 3.23, 95% CI 2.59-4.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Myocardial injury is prevalent among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and is associated with higher risk of mortality. Patients with CVD are more likely to have myocardial injury than patients without CVD. Troponin elevation likely reflects non-ischemic or secondary myocardial injury.

Emerging Advanced Technologies Developed by IPR for Bio Medical Applications ‑.A Review

Over the last decade, research has intensified worldwide on the use of low-temperature plasmas in medicine and healthcare. Researchers have discovered many methods of applying plasmas to living tissues to deactivate pathogens; to end the flow of blood without damaging healthy tissue; to sanitize wounds and accelerate its healing; and to selectively kill malignant cancer cells. This review paper presents the latest development of advanced and plasma-based technologies used for applications in neurology in particular. Institute for Plasma Research (IPR), an aided institute of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), has also developed various technologies in some of these areas. One of these is an Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Jet (APPJ). This device is being studied to treat skin diseases, for coagulation of blood at faster rates and its interaction with oral, lung, and brain cancer cells. In certain cases, in-vitro studies have yielded encouraging results and limited in-vivo studies have been initiated. Plasma activated water has been produced in the laboratory for microbial disinfection, with potential applications in the health sector. Recently, plasmonic nanoparticle arrays which allow detection of very low concentrations of chemicals is studied in detail to allow early-stage detection of diseases. IPR has also been developing AI-based software called DeepCXR and AIBacilli for automated, high-speed screening and detection of footprints of tuberculosis (TB) in Chest X-ray images and for recognizing single/multiple TB bacilli in sputum smear test images, respectively. Deep Learning systems are increasingly being used around the world for analyzing electroencephalogram (EEG) signals for emotion recognition, mental workload, and seizure detection.