Sex-specific associations between sodium and potassium intake and overall and cause-specific mortality: a large prospective U.S. cohort study, systematic review, and updated meta-analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

The impact of sodium intake on cardiovascular disease (CVD) health and mortality has been studied for decades, including the well-established association with blood pressure. However, non-linear patterns, dose-response associations, and sex differences in the relationship between sodium and potassium intakes and overall and cause-specific mortality remain to be elucidated and a comprehensive examination is lacking. Our study objective was to determine whether intake of sodium and potassium and the sodium-potassium ratio are associated with overall and cause-specific mortality in men and women.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis of 237,036 men and 179,068 women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were utilized to calculate hazard ratios. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was also conducted.

RESULTS

During 6,009,748 person-years of follow-up, there were 77,614 deaths, 49,297 among men and 28,317 among women. Adjusting for other risk factors, we found a significant positive association between higher sodium intake (≥ 2,000 mg/d) and increased overall and CVD mortality (overall mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, men and women HRs = 1.06 and 1.10, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001; CVD mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, HRs = 1.07 and 1.21, Pnonlinearity = 0.0002 and 0.01). Higher potassium intake and a lower sodium-potassium ratio were associated with a reduced mortality, with women showing stronger associations (overall mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, HRs for potassium = 0.96 and 0.82, and HRs for the sodium-potassium ratio = 1.09 and 1.23, for men and women, respectively; Pnonlinearity < 0.05 and both P for interaction ≤ 0.0006). The overall mortality associations with intake of sodium, potassium and the sodium-potassium ratio were generally similar across population risk factor subgroups with the exception that the inverse potassium-mortality association was stronger in men with lower body mass index or fruit consumption (Pinteraction < 0.0004). The updated meta-analysis of cohort studies based on 42 risk estimates, 2,085,904 participants, and 80,085 CVD events yielded very similar results (highest versus lowest sodium categories, pooled relative risk for CVD events = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.20; Pnonlinearity < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates significant positive associations between daily sodium intake (within the range of sodium intake between 2,000 and 7,500 mg/d), the sodium-potassium ratio, and risk of CVD and overall mortality, with women having stronger sodium-potassium ratio-mortality associations than men, and with the meta-analysis providing compelling support for the CVD associations. These data may suggest decreasing sodium intake and increasing potassium intake as means to improve health and longevity, and our data pointing to a sex difference in the potassium-mortality and sodium-potassium ratio-mortality relationships provide additional evidence relevant to current dietary guidelines for the general adult population.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Identifier: CRD42022331618.

Fiber and whole grain intakes in relation to liver cancer risk: An analysis in 2 prospective cohorts and systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The association between fiber or whole grain intakes and the risk of liver cancer remains unclear. We assessed the associations between fiber or whole grain intakes and liver cancer risk among 2 prospective studies, and systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed these results with published prospective studies.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A total of 111,396 participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and 26,085 men from the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study were included. Intakes of total fiber and whole grains were estimated from validated food frequency questionnaires. Study-specific HRs and 95% CI with liver cancer risk were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. We systematically reviewed existing literature, and studies were combined in a dose-response meta-analysis. A total of 277 (median follow-up = 15.6 y) and 165 (median follow-up = 16.0 y) cases of liver cancer were observed in Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial and Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, respectively. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with liver cancer risk in Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (HR 10g/day : 0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.86). No significant associations were observed between whole grain intakes and liver cancer risk in either study. Our meta-analysis included 2383 incident liver cancer cases (7 prospective cohorts) for fiber intake and 1523 cases (5 prospective cohorts) for whole grain intake; combined HRs for liver cancer risk were 0.83 (0.76-0.91) per 10 g/day of fiber and 0.92 (0.85-0.99) per 16 g/day (1 serving) of whole grains.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary fiber and whole grains were inversely associated with liver cancer risk. Further research exploring potential mechanisms and different fiber types is needed.

Identification of pre-diagnostic lipid sets associated with liver cancer risk using untargeted lipidomics and chemical set analysis: A nested case-control study within the ATBC cohort

In pre-disposed individuals, a reprogramming of the hepatic lipid metabolism may support liver cancer initiation. We conducted a high-resolution mass spectrometry based untargeted lipidomics analysis of pre-diagnostic serum samples from a nested case-control study (219 liver cancer cases and 219 controls) within the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study. Out of 462 annotated lipids, 158 (34.2%) were associated with liver cancer risk in a conditional logistic regression analysis at a false discovery rate (FDR) <0.05. A chemical set enrichment analysis (ChemRICH) and co-regulatory set analysis suggested that 22/28 lipid classes and 47/83 correlation modules were significantly associated with liver cancer risk (FDR <0.05). Strong positive associations were observed for monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), triacylglycerols (TAGs) and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) having MUFA acyl chains. Negative associations were observed for sphingolipids (ceramides and sphingomyelins), lysophosphatidylcholines, cholesterol esters and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) containing TAGs and PCs. Stearoyl-CoA desaturase enzyme 1 (SCD1), a rate limiting enzyme in fatty acid metabolism and ceramidases seems to be critical in this reprogramming. In conclusion, our study reports pre-diagnostic lipid changes that provide novel insights into hepatic lipid metabolism reprogramming may contribute to a pro-cell growth and anti-apoptotic tissue environment and, in turn, support liver cancer initiation.

Sociodemographic inequities in the burden of carcinogenic industrial air emissions in the United States

BACKGROUND

Industrial facilities are not located uniformly across U.S. communities, but how the burden of exposure to carcinogenic air emissions may vary across population characteristics is unclear. We evaluated differences in carcinogenic industrial pollution among major sociodemographic groups in the U.S. and Puerto Rico.

METHODS

We evaluated cross-sectional associations of population characteristics including race and ethnicity, educational attainment, and poverty at the census tract level with point-source industrial emissions of 21 known human carcinogens using regulatory data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing the highest emissions (tertile or quintile) to the referent group (zero emissions/non-exposed) for all sociodemographic characteristics were estimated using multinomial, population density-adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

In 2018, approximately 7.4 million people lived in Census tracts with nearly 12 million pounds of carcinogenic air releases. The odds of tracts having the greatest burden of benzene, 1,3-butadiene, ethylene oxide, formaldehyde, trichloroethylene, and nickel emissions compared to non-exposed were 10%-20% higher for African Americans, whereas White populations were up to 18% less likely to live in tracts with the highest emissions. Among Hispanics and Latinos, odds were 16%-21% higher for benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and ethylene oxide. Populations experiencing poverty or with less than high school education were associated with up to 51% higher burden, irrespective of race and ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Carcinogenic industrial emissions disproportionately impact African Americans, Hispanics and Latinos, and people with limited education or experiencing poverty, thus representing a source of pollution that may contribute to observed cancer disparities.

Association with menopausal hormone therapy and asymptomatic gallstones in US women in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Study

15% of US adults have gallstones, most of which are clinically "silent". Several studies show that menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) increases symptomatic gallstones and cholecystectomy risk. MHT use may be contraindicated in women with gallstones and population studies may be biased by "confounding by contraindication" while the true association between MHT and gallstones remains underestimated. We sought to examine whether MHT use was associated with asymptomatic gallstones using instrumental variable (IV) analysis to account for confounding by contraindication. We used 2018 postmenopausal women from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to estimate associations of MHT use with asymptomatic gallstones. A traditional logistic regression analysis was compared to instrumental variable (IV) analysis to account for confounding by contraindication. 12% of women with asymptomatic gallstones and 25% of women without gallstones were current MHT users (P < 0.001). The traditional analysis suggested a decreased odds of asymptomatic gallstones in current versus never users (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37, 0.89), but increased odds (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.44, 5.16) in the IV analysis. The traditional analysis consistently underestimated the odds of asymptomatic gallstones with MHT use compared to the IV analysis. Accounting for confounding by contraindication, we found a suggestive, though imprecise, positive association between MHT use and asymptomatic gallstones among postmenopausal women. Failure to consider contraindication can produce incorrect results.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma stage by racial/ethnic group in the United States, 1992-2019

Background & Aims

Although incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) began to decline in the United States in the past decade, disparities in rates among racial/ethnic groups have persisted. Whether disparities in stage at diagnosis have remained over time, however, is unclear.

Methods

National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program has created a new staging-over-time variable that facilitates the examination of trends in HCC stage. Thus, the proportions of HCCs diagnosed by stage between 1992 and 2019 were examined among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) individuals. HCC incidence between 1992 and 2019 was also analysed using Joinpoint regression.

Results

Between 1992 and 2019, the proportion of stage 1 HCCs increased and the proportion of stage 4 HCCs decreased among non-Hispanic White, NHB, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander individuals. Among AI/AN persons, the proportion of stage 1 tumours remained stable, and the proportion of stage 4 tumours declined. In the most recent time period, NHB individuals had the lowest proportions of stage 1 HCCs (32%) and the highest proportion of stage 4 HCCs (20%) of any group. Joinpoint analysis found that HCC incidence began to decline by 2013 among all groups except AI/AN individuals, the only group that had an increase in incidence.

Conclusions

Despite generally favourable trends in HCC stage and incidence rates, disparities remain. NHB persons continue to have less favourable stages at diagnosis, and incidence rates continue to increase among AI/AN persons.

Impact and implications

HCC incidence rates among most United States racial/ethnic groups began to decline in recent years, but whether stage at diagnosis also improved was unclear. As a result, a new SEER stage variable was used to examine stage trends by race/ethnicity. Although the finding of generally favourable trends in stage as well as incidence is encouraging, continuity disparities in both stage and incidence require serious attention.

Prediagnostic Hormone Levels and Risk of Testicular Germ Cell Tumors: A Nested Case-Control Study in the Janus Serum Bank

BACKGROUND

It has been hypothesized that poorly functioning Leydig and/or Sertoli cells of the testes, indicated by higher levels of serum gonadotropins and lower levels of androgens, are related to the development of testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT). To investigate this hypothesis, we conducted a nested case-control study within the Janus Serum Bank cohort.

METHODS

Men who developed TGCT (n = 182) were matched to men who did not (n = 364). Sex steroid hormones were measured using LC/MS. Sex hormone binding globulin, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), and luteinizing hormone (LH) were quantified by direct immunoassay. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between hormone levels and TGCT risk.

RESULTS

Higher FSH levels [tertile (T) 3 vs. T2: OR = 2.89, 95% CI = 1.83-4.57] were associated with TGCT risk, but higher LH levels were not (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.81-1.96). The only sex steroid hormone associated with risk was androstane-3α, 17β-diol-3G (3α-diol-3G; OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.46-3.83). Analysis by histology found that increased FSH levels were related to seminoma (OR = 3.55, 95% CI = 2.12-5.95) but not nonseminoma (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.38-3.13). Increased levels of 3α-diol-3G were related to seminoma (OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.35-3.89) and nonsignificantly related to nonseminoma (OR = 2.71, 95% CI = 0.82-8.92).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher FSH levels are consistent with the hypothesis that poorly functioning Sertoli cells are related to the development of TGCT. In contrast, higher levels of 3α-diol-3G do not support the hypothesis that insufficient androgenicity is related to risk of TGCT.

IMPACT

Clarifying the role of sex hormones in the development of TGCT may stimulate new research hypotheses.

Endogenous sex steroid hormones and risk of liver cancer among US men: Results from the Liver Cancer Pooling Project

Background & Aims

Incidence rates of liver cancer in most populations are two to three times higher among men than women. The higher rates among men have led to the suggestion that androgens are related to increased risk whereas oestrogens are related to decreased risk. This hypothesis was investigated in the present study via a nested case-control analysis of pre-diagnostic sex steroid hormone levels among men in five US cohorts.

Methods

Concentrations of sex steroid hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin were quantitated using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and a competitive electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, respectively. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for associations between hormones and liver cancer among 275 men who subsequently developed liver cancer and 768 comparison men.

Results

Higher concentrations of total testosterone (OR per one-unit increase in log₂ = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.38-2.29), dihydrotestosterone (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.21-2.57), oestrone (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.08-2.79), total oestradiol (OR = 1.58, 95% CI=1.22-20.05), and sex hormone-binding globulin (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.27-2.11) were associated with increased risk. Higher concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), however, were associated with a 53% decreased risk (OR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.33-0.68).

Conclusions

Higher concentrations of both androgens (testosterone, dihydrotestosterone) and their aromatised oestrogenic metabolites (oestrone, oestradiol) were observed among men who subsequently developed liver cancer compared with men who did not. As DHEA is an adrenal precursor of both androgens and oestrogens, these results may suggest that a lower capacity to convert DHEA to androgens, and their subsequent conversion to oestrogens, confers a lower risk of liver cancer, whereas a greater capacity to convert DHEA confers a greater risk.

Impact and implications

This study does not fully support the current hormone hypothesis as both androgen and oestrogen levels were associated with increased risk of liver cancer among men. The study also found that higher DHEA levels were associated with lower risk, thus suggesting the hypothesis that greater capacity to convert DHEA could be associated with increased liver cancer risk among men.

Updating the Know Your Chances Website to Include Smoking Status as a Risk Factor for Mortality Estimates

Importance

To make wise decisions about the health risks they face, people need information about the magnitude of the threats as well as the context, such as how risks compare. Such information is often presented by age, sex, and race but rarely accounts for smoking status, a major risk factor for many causes of death.

Objective

To update the National Cancer Institute's Know Your Chances website to present mortality estimates for a broad set of causes of death and all causes combined by smoking status in addition to age, sex, and race.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cohort study, mortality estimates using life table methods were calculated with the National Cancer Institute's DevCan software package, combining data from the US National Vital Statistics System, National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, National Institutes of Health-AARP (American Association of Retired Persons), Cancer Prevention Study II, Nurses' Health and Health Professions follow-up studies, and Women's Health Initiative. Data were collected from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2018, and analyzed from August 27, 2019, to February 28, 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Age-conditional probabilities of dying due to various causes and all causes combined, accounting for competing causes of death, for people aged 20 to 75 years over the next 5, 10, or 20 years by sex, race, and smoking status.

Results

A total of 954 029 individuals aged 55 years or older (55.8% women) were included in the analysis. Regardless of sex or race, for never-smokers, coronary heart disease represented the highest 10-year chance of death after about 50 years of age, which is higher than for any malignant neoplasm. Among current smokers, the 10-year chance of death due to lung cancer was almost as high as for coronary heart disease in each group. For Black and White female current smokers aged from the mid-40s onward, the 10-year probability of death due to lung cancer was substantially higher than for breast cancer. After 40 years of age, the observed effect of never vs current smoking on the 10-year chance of death due to all causes approximated adding 10 years of age. After 40 years of age when conditioning on smoking status, mortality risk for Black individuals was approximately that of White individuals 5 years older.

Conclusions and Relevance

Using life table methods and accounting for competing risks, the revised Know Your Chances website presents age-conditional mortality estimates according to smoking status for a broad set of causes in the context of other conditions and all-cause mortality. The findings of this cohort study suggest that failing to account for smoking status results in inaccurate mortality estimates for many causes-namely, they are too low for smokers and too high for nonsmokers.

Abstract 1944: Racial and ethnic disparities in U.S. clinical trials in liver cancer in the last nineteen years

Background: Accurate representation of ethnic/racial population subgroups in clinical trials is fundamental to ensure universal effectiveness of new therapies as well as to decrease disparities in oncology care. In 2020, Hispanic (Hisp) and Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) people constituted 19% and 14% of the U.S. population, respectively. As of 2019, Hisp and NHB proportionally made up 23.2% and 11.1% of hepatocellular carcinoma cases, respectively, and 22.6% and 8.3% of biliary tract cancer cases. We analyzed the enrollment of racial/ethnic groups of liver cancer trials in the U.S in the last twenty years.

Methods: A database search was performed in clinicaltrials.gov for interventional liver cancer studies based only in the U.S. with reported results from 09/2002-08/2022. A total of 3492 trials were identified; studies were excluded if non-interventional (N=168), recruited in a foreign site (N= 2422), results were missing (N=713), or were not liver specific (N=63), resulting in a total of 126 studies. We sought to quantify the enrollment of racial/ethnic subgroups.

Results: From a total of 126 studies, enrolling 5197 patients, 53.2% reported race/ethnicity; amongst these, 57.1% of patients were Non-Hispanic White, 14.5% were NHB, 9.9% were Hisp, 8.5% Asian, 0.4% American Indian and 0.2% Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. NIH-funded studies had higher rates of race/ethnicity reporting without reaching statistical significance (65.1% vs 47.0%, p= 0.053). The rate of race/ethnicity reporting between clinical trial phases (I- IV) was not statistically significant (p= 0.70).

Conclusions: 47% of U.S. liver cancer studies in the last twenty years in clinicaltrials.gov did not report race/ethnicity. The relative representation of NHB and Hispanics in these trials is lower than the incidence reported in the U.S. Race/ethnicity reporting in U.S.-based clinical trials may be beneficial.

Table 1: Demographics of U.S-only Clinical Trials of Liver Cancer By Funding By Trial Phase All NIH Non-NIH P- value Phase I or II P- value P- value Trials 126 43 83 - 105 - - Participants 5306 1557 3749 - 3325 - - Race and ethnicity reported 53.2% 65.1% 47.0% 0.053 57.1% 0.70 0.70 Race and Ethnicity NHW* 57.1% 57.7% 56.7% 0.86 60.2% NA NA NHB* 14.5% 11.2% 16.8% 0.07 15.1% NA NA Hisp* 9.9% 13.4% 7.4% 0.30 7.1% NA NA Asian 8.5% 9.9% 7.5% 0.57 7.9% NA NA AI* 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.17 0.4% NA NA NH/PI* 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.76 0.2% NA NA *NHW= Non-Hispanic White, NHB= Non-Hispanic Black, Hisp= Hispanic, AI= American Indian, NH/PI= Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander

Citation Format: J. Alberto Maldonado, Barry I. Graubard, Katherine A. McGlynn, Tim F. Greten, Cecilia Monge. Racial and ethnic disparities in U.S. clinical trials in liver cancer in the last nineteen years [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 1944.

Confidence intervals for prevalence estimates from complex surveys with imperfect assays

There are established methods for estimating disease prevalence with associated confidence intervals for complex surveys with perfect assays, or simple random sample surveys with imperfect assays. We develop and study methods for the complicated case of complex surveys with imperfect assays. The new methods use the melding method to combine gamma intervals for directly standardized rates and established adjustments for imperfect assays by estimating sensitivity and specificity. One of the new methods appears to have at least nominal coverage in all simulated scenarios. We compare our new methods to established methods in special cases (complex surveys with perfect assays or simple surveys with imperfect assays). In some simulations, our methods appear to guarantee coverage, while competing methods have much lower than nominal coverage, especially when overall prevalence is very low. In other settings, our methods are shown to have higher than nominal coverage. We apply our method to a seroprevalence survey of SARS-CoV-2 in undiagnosed adults in the United States between May and July 2020.

Geographic Patterns in U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality and Cigarette Smoking

BACKGROUND

Despite the success of smoking cessation campaigns, lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in the U.S. Variations in smoking behavior and lung cancer mortality are evident by sex and region.

METHODS

Applying geospatial methods to lung cancer mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and county-level estimates of smoking prevalences from the NCI's Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Measures, we evaluated patterns in lung cancer mortality rates (2005-2018) in relation to patterns in ever cigarette smoking prevalences (1997-2003).

RESULTS

Overall, ever smoking spatial patterns were generally associated with lung cancer mortality rates, which were elevated in the Appalachian region and lower in the West for both sexes. However, we also observed geographic variation in mortality rates that is not explained by smoking. Using Lee's L statistic for assessing bivariate spatial association, we identified counties where the ever smoking prevalence was low and lung cancer rates were high. We observed a significant cluster of counties (n = 25; P values ranging from 0.001 to 0.04) with low ever smoking prevalence and high mortality rates among females around the Mississippi River region south of St. Louis, Missouri and a similar and smaller cluster among males in Western Mississippi (n = 12; P values ranging from 0.002 to 0.03) that has not been previously described.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses identified U.S. counties where factors other than smoking may be driving lung cancer mortality.

IMPACT

These novel findings highlight areas where investigation of environmental and other risk factors for lung cancer is needed.

Upper age-limits for US male HPV-vaccination for oropharyngeal cancer prevention: A microsimulation-based modeling study

BACKGROUND

HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer is the most common HPV-associated cancer in the United States. The age at acquisition of oral HPV infections that cause oropharyngeal cancer (causal infections) is unknown; consequently, the benefit of vaccination of US men aged 27-45 remains uncertain.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation-based, individual-level, state-transition model of oral HPV16 and HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer among heterosexual US men aged 15-84 years, calibrated to population-level data. We estimated the benefit of vaccination of men aged 27-45 for prevention of oropharyngeal cancer, while accounting for direct- and indirect/herd-effects of male and female vaccination.

RESULTS

In the absence of vaccination, most (70%) causal oral HPV16 infections are acquired by age 26, and 29% are acquired between ages 27-45. Among men aged 15-45 in 2021 (1976-2006 birth cohorts), status-quo vaccination of men through age 26 is estimated to prevent 95% of 153,450 vaccine-preventable cancers. Assuming 100% vaccination in 2021, extending the upper age-limit to 30, 35, 40, or 45 for men aged 27-45 (1976-1994 cohorts) is estimated to yield small benefit (3.0%, 4.2%, 5.1%, and 5.6% additional cancers prevented, respectively). Importantly, status-quo vaccination of men through age 26 is predicted to result in notable declines in HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer incidence in young men by 2035 (51% and 24% declines at ages 40-44 and 45-49, respectively) and noticeable declines (12%) overall by 2045.

CONCLUSION

Most causal oral HPV16 infections in US men are acquired by age 26, underscoring limited benefit from vaccination of men aged 27-45 for prevention of HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancers.

Testosterone therapy and cancer risks among men in the SEER-Medicare linked database

BACKGROUND

We examined associations between two forms of testosterone therapy (TT) and risks of seven cancers among men.

METHODS

SEER-Medicare combines cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme with Medicare claims. Our population-based case-control study included incident cancer cases diagnosed between 1992-2015: prostate (n = 130,713), lung (n = 105,466), colorectal (n = 56,433), bladder (n = 38,873), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 17,854), melanoma (n = 14,241), and oesophageal (n = 9116). We selected 100,000 controls from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries and used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

TT was associated with lower risk of distant-stage prostate cancer (injection/implantation OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.86; topical OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.24-1.03). We also observed inverse associations for distant-stage colorectal cancer (injection/implantation OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62-0.90; topical OR = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05-0.24). Risks of distant-stage colorectal and prostate cancers decreased with time after initiating TT by injection/implantation. By contrast, TT was positively associated with distant-stage melanoma (injection/implantation OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.37-2.11). TT was not associated with bladder cancer, oesophageal cancer, lung cancer or non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

CONCLUSION

TT was inversely associated with distant-stage prostate and colorectal cancers but was positively associated with distant-stage melanoma. These observations may suggest an aetiologic role for TT or the presence of residual confounding.

Sex disparities in the incidence of 21 cancer types: Quantification of the contribution of risk factors

BACKGROUND

Cancer incidence is higher in men than in women at most shared anatomic sites for currently unknown reasons. The authors quantified the extent to which behaviors (smoking and alcohol use), anthropometrics (body mass index and height), lifestyles (physical activity, diet, medications), and medical history collectively explain the male predominance of risk at 21 shared cancer sites.

METHODS

Prospective cohort analyses (n = 171,274 male and n = 122,826 female participants; age range, 50-71 years) in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011). Cancer-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate male-to-female hazard ratios (HRs). The degree to which risk factors explained the observed male-female risk disparity was quantified using the Peters-Belson method.

RESULTS

There were 26,693 incident cancers (17,951 in men and 8742 in women). Incidence was significantly lower in men than in women only for thyroid and gallbladder cancers. At most other anatomic sites, the risks were higher in men than in women (adjusted HR range, 1.3-10.8), with the strongest increases for bladder cancer (HR, 3.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-3.79), gastric cardia cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.37), larynx cancer (HR, 3.53; 95% CI, 2.46-5.06), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 10.80; 95% CI, 7.33-15.90). Risk factors explained a statistically significant (nonzero) proportion of the observed male excess for esophageal adenocarcinoma and cancers of liver, other biliary tract, bladder, skin, colon, rectum, and lung. However, only a modest proportion of the male excess was explained by risk factors (ranging from 50% for lung cancer to 11% for esophageal adenocarcinoma).

CONCLUSIONS

Men have a higher risk of cancer than women at most shared anatomic sites. Such male predominance is largely unexplained by risk factors, underscoring a role for sex-related biologic factors.

Prediction of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using anthropometry and body fat measures by sex and race/ethnicity in the United States

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing in the United States and is strongly linked to obesity in many, but not all, racial/ethnic groups. It is conceivable that the lack of correspondence is related to differential fat distribution. The study objective was to examine which fat distribution measures best predicted NAFLD by sex within racial/ethnic groups.

METHODS

The analysis included 1,404 participants from the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses compared the ability of dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry-measured percentage total fat and abdominal fat with measured BMI, waist circumference, and waist to height ratio to predict ultrasound transient-elastography-assessed NAFLD in each sex and racial/ethnic group.

RESULTS

AUC analysis found the best predictors of NAFLD among men were waist circumference and total abdominal fat area (AUC: 84.1%) and the best predictor among women was visceral fat (AUC: 85.2). NAFLD prediction by body fat measures, however, was similar between racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The best predictors of NAFLD, using body fat distribution measures, vary by sex but not by racial/ethnic group.

Racial/ethnic disparities in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and mortality rates in the United States, 1992-2018

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

HCC is characterized by racial/ethnic disparities in rates. Recent USA reports suggest that incidence has begun to decline, but it is not clear whether the declines have occurred among all groups, nor whether mortality has declined. Thus, the current study examined USA incidence and mortality between 1992 and 2018.

APPROACH & RESULTS

HCC incidence and incidence-based mortality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program were used to calculate age-standardized rates by race/ethnicity, sex, and age. Trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC). Age-period-cohort models assessed the effects on trends of age, calendar period, and birth cohort. Overall, HCC incidence significantly declined between 2015 and 2018 (APC, -5.6%). Whereas most groups experienced incidence declines, the trends were most evident among Asians/Pacific Islanders, women, and persons <50 years old. Exceptions were the rates among non-Hispanic Black persons, which did not significantly decline (APC, -0.7), and among American Indians/Alaska Natives, which significantly increased (APC, +4.3%). Age-period-cohort modeling found that birth cohort had a greater effect on rates than calendar period. Among the baby boom cohorts, the 1950-1954 cohort had the highest rates. Similar to the overall incidence decline, HCC mortality rates declined between 2013 and 2018 (APC, -2.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

HCC incidence and mortality rates began to decline for most groups in 2015, but persistent differences in rates continued to exist. Rates among non-Hispanic Black persons did not decline significantly, and rates among American Indians/Alaska Natives significantly increased, suggesting that greater effort is needed to reduce the HCC burden among these vulnerable groups.

Circulating bile acid concentrations and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in Guatemala

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major liver disease worldwide. Bile acid dysregulation may be a key feature in its pathogenesis and progression.

AIMS

To characterise the relationship between bile acid levels and NAFLD at the population level METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study in Guatemala in 2016 to examine the prevalence of NAFLD. Participants (n = 415) completed questionnaires, donated blood samples and had a brief medical exam. NAFLD was determined by calculation of the fatty liver index. The levels of 15 circulating bile acids were determined by LC-MS/MS. Adjusted prevalence odds ratios (POR_adj ) and 95% CI were calculated to examine the relationships between bile acid levels (in tertiles) and NAFLD.

RESULTS

Persons with NAFLD had significantly higher levels of the conjugated primary bile acids glycocholic acid (GCA) (POR_{adj T3 vs T1}  = 1.85), taurocholic acid (TCA) (POR_{adj T3 vs T1}  = 2.45) and taurochenodeoxycholic acid (TCDCA) (POR_{adj T3 vs T1}  = 2.10), as well as significantly higher levels the unconjugated secondary bile acid, deoxycholic acid (DCA) (POR_{adj T3 vs T1}  = 1.78) and its conjugated form, taurodeoxycholic acid (TDCA) (POR_{adj T3 vs T1}  = 1.81).

CONCLUSIONS

The bile acid levels of persons with and without NAFLD differed significantly. Among persons with NAFLD, higher levels of the conjugated forms of CA (i.e. GCA, TCA) and the secondary bile acids that derive from CA (i.e. DCA, TDCA) may indicate there is hepatic overproduction of CA, which may affect the liver via aberrant signalling mediated by the bile acids.

Sweetened beverage consumption and risk of liver cancer by diabetes status: A pooled analysis

BACKGROUND

Consumption of sweetened beverages has been linked to several risk factors for liver cancer including diabetes. Studies investigating the role of sweetened beverage consumption and liver cancer, however, are limited. As persons with diabetes are advised against consumption of sugar, the objective of this study was to examine the role of sweetened beverage consumption and liver cancer risk by diabetes status.

METHODS

Data from two U.S. cohorts: the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial were harmonized and pooled. Hazard ratios and 95%CI were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models stratified by median follow-up time.

RESULTS

Among persons without diabetes, there were no statistical evidence of associations between liver cancer and consumption of sweetened beverages overall, sugar sweetened beverages (SSB), or artificially sweetened beverages (ASB). Sugar sweetened (SS) soda consumption, however, was associated with liver cancer in the first follow-up interval (HR:1.18. 95%CI: 1.03, 1.35). In contrast, among persons with diabetes, there were significant associations between liver cancer and consumption of sweetened beverages overall (HR: 1.12, 95%CI 1.01, 1.24), ASBs (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.25), soda overall (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.26) and artificially sweetened (AS) soda (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.27) in the first follow-up interval.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased soda consumption may be associated with risk of liver cancer. The results suggest that decreasing consumption of SS soda by persons without diabetes, and AS soda by persons with diabetes, could be associated with reduced liver cancer risk.

fast.adonis: a computationally efficient non-parametric multivariate analysis of microbiome data for large-scale studies

Motivation

Nonparametric multivariate analysis has been widely used to identify variables associated with a dissimilarity matrix and to quantify their contribution. For very large studies ( n ≥ 5000 ) and many explanatory variables, existing software packages (e.g. adonis and adonis2 in vegan) are computationally intensive when conducting sequential multivariate analysis with permutations or bootstrapping. Moreover, for subjects from a complex sampling design, we need to adjust for sampling weights to derive an unbiased estimate.

Results

We implemented an R function fast.adonis to overcome these computational challenges in large-scale studies. fast.adonis generates results consistent with adonis/adonis2 but much faster. For complex sampling studies, fast.adonis integrates sampling weights algebraically to mimic the source population; thus, analysis can be completed very fast without requiring a large amount of memory.

Availability and implementation

fast.adonis is implemented using R and is publicly available at https://github.com/jennylsl/fast.adonis.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics Advances online.

Associations of Dietary Cholesterol, Serum Cholesterol, and Egg Consumption With Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality: Systematic Review and Updated Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite substantial research highlighting the importance of exogenous dietary cholesterol intake and endogenous serum cholesterol level in human health, a thorough evaluation of the associations is lacking. Our study objective was to examine overall and cause-specific mortality in relation to dietary and serum cholesterol, as well as egg consumption, and conduct an updated meta-regression analysis of cohort studies.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis of 27 078 men in the ATBC Study (Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention). Multivariable-controlled cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios and 31-year absolute mortality risk differences. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was also performed (PROSPERO [URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/; Unique identifier: CRD42021272756]).

RESULTS

Based on 482 316 person-years of follow-up, we identified 22 035 deaths, including 9110 deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Greater dietary cholesterol and egg consumption were associated with increased risk of overall and CVD-related mortality. Hazard ratios for each additional 300 mg cholesterol intake per day were 1.10 and 1.13 for overall and CVD-related mortality, respectively; for each additional 50-g egg consumed daily, hazard ratios were 1.06 and 1.09, respectively, for overall and CVD-related mortality (all P values<0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, higher serum total cholesterol concentrations were associated with increased risk of CVD-related mortality (hazard ratios per 1 SD increment, 1.14; P<0.0001). The observed associations were generally similar across cohort subgroups. The updated meta-analysis of cohort studies on the basis of 49 risk estimates, 3 601 401 participants, and 255 479 events showed consumption of 1 additional 50-g egg daily was associated with significantly increased CVD risk (pooled relative risk, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.00-1.08]; I²=80.1%). In the subgroup analysis of geographic regions (P_interaction=0.02), an increase of 50-g egg consumed daily was associated with a higher risk of CVD in US cohorts (pooled relative risk, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.02-1.14]) and appeared related to a higher CVD risk in European cohorts with borderline significance (pooled relative risk, 1.05), but was not associated with CVD risk in Asian cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective cohort study and updated meta-analysis, greater dietary cholesterol and egg consumption were associated with increased risk of overall and CVD-related mortality. Our findings support restricted consumption of dietary cholesterol as a means to improve long-term health and longevity.

Analysis of Familial Aggregation Using Recurrence Risk for Complex Survey Data

Familial or family aggregation of a disease is important for studying possible genetic etiology of a disease. A popular and useful measure of family aggregation is recurrence risk. Household health surveys with (family) network sampling, which surveyed individuals report about disease status of themselves and specified relatives, has been shown to be useful for estimating prevalence of diseases and more recently for estimating recurrence risk of disease using nonparametric classical survey methods. Because these surveys have complex sample designs with sample weighting for differential sample selection rates, this paper extends the composite-likelihood estimation and hypothesis of parameters of the quadratic exponential model (QEM) for simple random samples to data from these complex sample designs. In addition, the QEM is extended to simultaneously estimate and test parameters and recurrence risk for multiple family relationships, for comparing recurrence risk across family-level covariates (e.g., race) and utilizing propensity score weighting to adjust for confounding by individual-level covariates (e.g., age). Simulations are used to study the finite sample properties of the parameter estimation, variance estimation and level and power of hypothesis testing based on derived Wald and Quasi-Score tests for these extended QEMs. Finally, our methods are illustrated using the 1976 National Health Interview Survey diabetes data set.

Seroprevalence and Determinants of Helicobacter pylori Infection in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Helicobacter pylori infection is the primary known risk factor for gastric cancer. Despite the global decline in H. pylori prevalence, this infection remains a major public health concern in developing areas, including Latin America. Our study aimed to determine H. pylori seroprevalence and identified its determinants among Hispanics/Latinos living in the United States (U.S.).

METHODS

The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) is a population-based sample of self-identified Hispanics/Latinos (n = 16,144) in four U.S. communities, aged 18 to 74 years, recruited from randomly selected households using a stratified two-stage area probability sample design based on sampling households within sampled census block groups weighted for differential response rates. Anti-H. pylori immunoglobulin G antibodies were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using plasma samples. We calculated adjusted seroprevalence (i.e., predicted margins) from multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The overall weighted H. pylori seroprevalence was 57% among HCHS/SOL participants, with 38% and 62% seropositivity among U.S.-born and non-U.S.-born individuals, respectively. Age-adjusted prevalence varied by self-reported Hispanic/Latino background, ranging from 47% in Puerto Rican to 72% in Central American backgrounds. Adjusted H. pylori seroprevalence was higher in the following groups: older age, male sex, lower education, non-U.S. born status, smoking, greater number of missing teeth, fewer doctor visits, lower ferritin level, and hepatitis A seropositivity.

CONCLUSIONS

H. pylori seroprevalence in Hispanics/Latinos remains high and differed significantly by Hispanic/Latino background. H. pylori seropositivity is strongly associated with poor socioeconomic conditions. These findings highlight the ongoing importance of this bacterial infection in the U.S.

Estimated Number of Deaths Prevented Through Increased Physical Activity Among US Adults

This cohort study uses National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data to estimate the number of deaths that could be prevented through increased physical activity among US adults.

Associations between aflatoxin B 1 ‐albumin adduct levels with metabolic conditions in Guatemala: A cross‐sectional study

Background and Aims

Metabolic conditions such as obesity, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are highly prevalent in Guatemala and increase the risk for a number of disorders, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Aflatoxin B₁ (AFB₁) levels are also notably elevated in the population and are known to be associated with HCC risk. Whether AFB₁ also contributes to the high prevalence of the metabolic disorders has not been previously examined. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the association between AFB₁ and the metabolic conditions.

Methods

Four‐hundred twenty‐three individuals were included in the study, in which AFB₁‐albumin adduct levels were measured in sera. Metabolic conditions included diabetes, obesity, central obesity, metabolic syndrome, and NAFLD. Crude and adjusted prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated for the associations between the metabolic conditions and AFB₁‐albumin adduct levels categorized into quartiles.

Results

The study found a significant association between AFB₁‐albumin adduct levels and diabetes (Q4 vs Q1 POR = 3.74, 95%CI: 1.71‐8.19; P‐trend .003). No associations were observed between AFB₁‐albumin adduct levels and the other conditions.

Conclusions

As diabetes is the metabolic condition most consistently linked to HCC, the possible association between AFB₁ exposure and diabetes may be of public health importance. Further studies are warranted to replicate the findings and examine potential mechanisms.

Agreement Between the Prevalence of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Determined by Transient Elastography and Fatty Liver Indices

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global public health problem linked to the rising prevalence of obesity and metabolic disorders.1 Accurate estimates of NAFLD in populations are challenging because the gold standard for detection is liver biopsy, an invasive procedure that precludes its use in research settings.2 NAFLD can also be detected via noninvasive imaging, such as ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging-determined proton density fat fraction, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and the controlled attenuation parameter derived via transient elastography (CAP-TE).2 Given the complexities of imaging in population studies, however, many estimates have been based on calculated indices, such as the Fatty Liver Index (FLI)3 and the Hepatic Steatosis Index (HSI).4 Concern has been raised that the indices underestimate the prevalence of NAFLD,5 thus downplaying the scope of the public health challenge. Ability to examine whether these concerns are substantive has been provided by a recent study of the US population. Using data from the study, it was reported that the US prevalence of CAP-TE-determined NAFLD was 47.8%.6 The current analysis used data from the same national study to examine how well the fatty liver indices corresponded to CAP-TE-determined NAFLD. Because most persons with NAFLD reportedly have elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels,7 the correspondence between elevated ALT and CAP-TE was also examined.

Self-Reported Olfactory Dysfunction and Diet Quality: Findings from the 2011-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)

We identified associations between self-reported olfactory dysfunction (OD) and dietary attributes in participants aged ≥40 years (n = 6,356) from the nationally representative 2011–2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The chemosensory questionnaire and 24-h dietary recalls were administered by trained interviewers. OD was defined as self-report of either smell problems in the last year, worse smell relative to age 25, or perceiving phantom odors. Dietary outcomes included Healthy Eating Index 2015 score (HEI) with adequacy and moderation components (higher scores indicated higher diet quality), dietary diversity, energy density, and intake of major food groups. Survey-weighted linear regression models estimated OD–diet associations, adjusting for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors. Adjusted mean difference (95% CI) between those with versus without OD, showed that adults with OD had significantly lower HEI moderation score (−0.67 (−1.22, −0.11)) and diets higher in energy density (0.06 (0.00, 0.11)), and percent energy from saturated fat (0.47 (0.12, 0.81)), total fat (0.96 (0.22, 1.70)), and added sugar (1.00 (0.33, 1.66)). Age and sex-stratified analyses showed that younger females (40–64 years) primarily accounted for the associations with diet quality and total/saturated fat intake. These findings inform dietary screening and recommendations for adults who report OD, including those experiencing transient or persistent smell loss with COVID-19.

Associations of Helicobacter pylori and hepatitis A seropositivity with asthma in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL): addressing the hygiene hypothesis

Background

The hygiene hypothesis posits that microbial exposure reduces risk of asthma and other respiratory-related diseases. Helicobacter pylori and hepatitis A virus (HAV) are common fecal–oral infections. Our study aimed to examine associations of seropositivity to these agents with asthma in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

Methods

A total of 12,471 HCHS/SOL participants with baseline data on self-reported physician-diagnosed asthma, and antibodies anti-H. pylori and anti-HAV were included in this cross-sectional analysis. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the overall associations of seropositivity to each agent with asthma. Analyses were also stratified by Hispanic/Latino background. Effect modification by smoking status and nativity were tested. An analysis restricted to individuals with spirometry-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was also considered.

Results

The weighted overall prevalence of asthma was 16.6%. The weighted seroprevalence of H. pylori was 56.6% and of HAV was 76.6%, and they significantly differed by Hispanic/Latino background. After accounting for age, sex, education and other key confounders, we found no associations between H. pylori or HAV seropositivity with asthma (with and without COPD), either for all individuals combined or for any of the six specific backgrounds. There were no significant interactions by smoking and nativity.

Conclusion

Our findings did not provide support for the role of H. pylori or HAV, as evidence of the hygiene hypothesis in asthma among the large and diverse Hispanic/Latino populations of the HCHS/SOL.

Trial registration NCT02060344

Clock Time of First Eating Episode and Prospective Risk of All-Cause Mortality in US Adults

BACKGROUND

There is increasing recognition that a morning or evening preference is associated with time of eating, metabolic health, and morbidity. However, few studies have examined the association of time of eating with mortality.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association of time of first recalled ingestive episode with the prospective risk of all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We used mortality-linked data from the NHANES conducted in 1988-1994 and 1999-2014 (n = 34,609; age ≥ 40 years). The exposure was quartiles (Q1-Q4) of clock time of first eating episode self-reported in the baseline 24-hour dietary recall. The outcome was follow-up time from the date of NHANES examination to the date of death or end of the follow-up period (31 December 2015). We used proportional hazards regression methods to determine the independent association of time of first eating episode with relative hazard of all-cause mortality, with adjustments for multiple covariates and the complex survey design. Multiple linear regression methods were used to examine the associations of time of first eating episode with baseline cardiometabolic biomarkers and dietary attributes.

RESULTS

In this national cohort, with a median age of ∼55 years (95% CI: 54.6-55.4 years) at baseline and a median follow-up of 8.3 years (IQR, 8.75 years), there were 10,303 deaths. The median times of first eating episodes in Q1-Q4 were 05:45, 07:00, 08:00, and 10:00, respectively. Covariate-adjusted relative hazards of mortality in Q1 to Q3 of the time of the first eating episode were 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.96), 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.95), 0.94 (95% CI: 0.87-1.02), with Q4 as the referent (P = 0.0008). Qualitative dietary attributes were inversely related with the time of the first eating episode; however, BMI and serum concentrations of glycemic biomarkers increased with later times of first eating episode (P ≤ 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Recall of an earlier time of the first eating episode by ≥40-year-old US participants was suggestive of a small relative survival advantage in this observational study.

Evaluation of a suggested novel method to adjust BMI calculated from self-reported weight and height for measurement error

OBJECTIVE

In 2019, Ward et al. proposed a method to adjust BMI calculated from self-reported weight and height for bias relative to measured data. They did not evaluate the adjusted values relative to measured BMI values for the same individuals.

METHODS

A large data set (n = 37,439) with both measured and self-reported weight and height was randomly divided into two groups. The proposed method was used to adjust the BMI values in one group to the measured data from the other group. The adjusted values were then compared with the measured values for the same individuals.

RESULTS

Before adjustment, 24.9% were incorrectly classified relative to measured BMI categories, including 7.9% in too high a category; after adjustment, 24.3% were incorrectly classified, with 12.8% in too high a category. The variance of the difference was unchanged. The adjustments reduced some errors and introduced new errors. At an individual level, results were unpredictable.

CONCLUSIONS

The suggested method has little effect on misclassification, can introduce new errors, and could magnify errors associated with factors, such as age, race, educational level, or other characteristics. State-level estimates and projections of obesity prevalence from values adjusted by this method may be incorrect.

Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates in the United States and elsewhere. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in 9089 adults in the United States who had not been diagnosed previously with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflected the U.S. population (n = 27,716) were selected by quota sampling from 462,949 volunteers. Enrolled participants (n = 11,382) provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and dried blood samples. Survey questions coincident with the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey, a large probability-based national survey, were used to adjust for selection bias. Most blood samples (88.7%) were collected between 10 May and 31 July 2020 and were processed using ELISA to measure seropositivity (IgG and IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the spike protein receptor binding domain). The overall weighted undiagnosed seropositivity estimate was 4.6% (95% CI, 2.6 to 6.5%), with race, age, sex, ethnicity, and urban/rural subgroup estimates ranging from 1.1% to 14.2%. The highest seropositivity estimates were in African American participants; younger, female, and Hispanic participants; and residents of urban centers. These data indicate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections for every diagnosed case of COVID-19, and an estimated 16.8 million infections were undiagnosed by mid-July 2020 in the United States.

Abstract 787: Estimating the influence of sex on cancer risk: An analysis in a large US prospective cohort study

Historically in the United States, cancer incidence has been significantly higher in men than women. This disparity is often attributed to gender-related behavioral risk factors, such as smoking and drinking. The degree to which differences in age-adjusted cancer rates are due to sex (e.g., chromosomes, hormones) is unknown. We estimated the effect of sex on cancer risk by comparing cancer incidence at 21 shared sites between men and women while adjusting for known gender-related risk factors. We analyzed data from 122,826 women and 171,274 men enrolled in the NIH AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011), contributing 3.5 million person-years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate male-to-female (M:F) adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each of the cancers, controlling for relevant baseline cancer-specific demographic (age, race, marital status, education), lifestyle (self-reported health status, family history of cancer, diet, body mass index, physical activity), and behavioral factors (tobacco, alcohol use). We used the Peters-Belson method to partition the observed differences between the sexes in cancer incidence into the proportion of the difference explained by the modifiable environmental and behavioral exposures (explained disparity) and the remaining proportion that cannot be explained by these exposures (unexplained disparity). After adjustment for cancer-specific risk factors, risks remained significantly higher in men for nearly all sites. The highest M:F aHR was for esophageal adenocarcinoma (aHR: 10.59, 95% CI: 7.19, 15.61) followed by gastric cardia (aHR: 4.55, 95% CI: 3.28, 6.31) and larynx (aHR: 3.73, 95% CI: 2.84, 4.89) cancers. In contrast, men had a lower adjusted incidence of thyroid (aHR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.68) and gallbladder (aHR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.37, 0.82) cancers compared with women. Using the Peters-Belson method we found that, if men had the same exposure distribution as the women (under a counterfactual), the male predominance would remain for 12 cancers (bladder, skin, lung, colon, kidney, rectum, esophageal adenocarcinoma, larynx, gastric cardia, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, pancreas, and oropharynx). For 4 cancers (liver, gastric non-cardia, oral cavity, and anus), if men had the exposure distribution of women, they would have experienced a higher cancer incidence than what was observed. This elevated risk in men compared with women, after adjustment for risk factors, indicates potential innate sex differences across nearly all shared cancer sites.

Funding: Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics

Citation Format: Sarah S. Jackson, Morgan A. Marks, Hormuzd Katki, Barry I. Graubard, Michael D. Cook, Anil Chaturvedi. Estimating the influence of sex on cancer risk: An analysis in a large US prospective cohort study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr 787.

Aflatoxin B1 exposure and liver cirrhosis in Guatemala: a case-control study

Objective

In Guatemala, cirrhosis is among the 10 leading causes of death, and mortality rates have increased lately. The reasons for this heavy burden of disease are not clear as the prevalence of prominent risk factors, such as hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus and heavy alcohol consumption, appears to be low. Aflatoxin B₁ (AFB₁) exposure, however, appears to be high, and thus could be associated with the high burden of cirrhosis. Whether AFB₁ increases the risk of cirrhosis in the absence of viral infection, however, is not clear.

Design

Cirrhosis cases (n=100) from two major referral hospitals in Guatemala City were compared with controls (n=200) from a cross-sectional study. Logistic regression was used to estimate the ORs and 95% CIs of cirrhosis and quintiles of AFB₁ in crude and adjusted models. A sex-stratified analysis was also conducted.

Results

The median AFB₁ level was significantly higher among the cases (11.4 pg/mg) than controls (5.11 pg/mg). In logistic regression analyses, higher levels of AFB₁ was associated with cirrhosis (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, OR: 11.55; 95% CI 4.05 to 32.89). No attenuation was observed with adjustment by sex, ethnicity, hepatitis B virus status, and heavy alcohol consumption. A significantly increasing trend in association was observed in both models (p trend <0.01). Additionally, the cirrhosis–AFB₁ association was more prominent among men.

Conclusions

The current study found a significant positive association between AFB₁ exposure and cirrhosis. Mitigation of AFB₁ exposure and a better understanding of additional risk factors may be important to reduce the burden of cirrhosis in Guatemala.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease: A risk factor for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have suggested that gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) may be associated with risk of squamous cancers of the larynx and esophagus; however, most of these studies have had methodological limitations or insufficient control for potential confounders.

METHODS

We prospectively examined the association between GERD and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EADC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) in 490,605 participants of the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort who were 50-71 years of age at baseline. Exposure to risk factors were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. GERD diagnosis was extracted among eligible participants via linkage to Medicare diagnoses codes and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of GERD were computed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

From 1995 to 2011, we accrued 931 cases of EADC, 876 cases of LSCC, and 301 cases of ESCC in this cohort and estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs of 2.23 (95% CI, 1.72-2.90), 1.91 (95% CI, 1.24-2.94), and 1.99 (95% CI, 1.39-2.84) for EADC, LSCC, and ESCC, respectively. The associations were independent of sex, smoking status, alcohol intake, and follow-up time periods. We estimated that among the general population in the United States, 22.04% of people aged 50-71 years suffered from GERD. Using risk factor distributions for the United States from national survey data, 16.92% of LSCC cases and 17.32% of ESCC cases among individuals aged 50-71 years were estimated to be associated with GERD.

CONCLUSION

GERD is a common gastrointestinal disorder, but future prospective studies are needed to replicate our findings. If replicated, they may inform clinical surveillance of GERD patients and suggest new avenues for prevention of these malignancies.

Trends in oral contraceptive and intrauterine device use among reproductive-aged women in the US from 1999 to 2017

PURPOSE

Since the 1960s, increasing oral contraceptive (OC) use has mirrored decreasing ovarian cancer incidence. The impact of intrauterine devices (IUDs) on cancer risk is less well established. With improved access and increased options, we must consider how changing usage can affect cancer risks.

METHODS

Nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2016) and the National Survey for Family Growth (NSFG, 2006-2017) were used to evaluate contraceptive use over time in premenopausal women (NHANES n = 13,179; NSFG n = 26,262). Trends were assessed overall and by race, age, pregnancy history, education, and body mass index.

RESULTS

The average annual absolute increase in self-reported IUD use was 0.81% (NSFG), while OC use decreased 0.49% in NSFG and 0.47% in NHANES. This represents a significant decrease in OC use in NSFG [annual percent change (APC) - 2.2% (95% CI - 3.4, - 1.0%), p < 0.01]. Trends in OC use varied somewhat by pregnancy history in NHANES (p-interaction = 0.054). In contrast, IUD use increased 6.2% annually [(1.4, 11.2%), p = 0.03] and varied significantly by pregnancy history (p-interaction < 0.01). Nulligravid women increased IUD use 11.0% annually [(2.6, 20.1%), p = 0.02] compared to women with prior pregnancy at 5.2% [(0.4, 10.2%), p = 0.04]. In 2015-2017, IUD use was 76.5% hormonal (71.1, 81.8%) and 22.9% copper (17.4, 28.3%) with greater hormonal IUD use in obese women [89.4%, (82.9, 95.9%)].

CONCLUSION

Increasing IUD use outpaced declining OC use in premenopausal US women. There may be a resulting decreased gynecologic cancer risk as more women gain access to potentially risk-reducing contraceptives.

Blood lead levels and lung cancer mortality: An updated analysis of NHANES II and III

Previous analyses within the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II and III cycles suggested an association between blood lead levels (BLLs) and lung cancer mortality, although the evidence was limited by small case numbers. To clarify this relationship, we conducted updated analyses of 4,182 and 15,629 participants in NHANES II and III, respectively, (extending follow-up 20 and 8 years) aged ≥20 with BLL measurements and mortality follow-up through 2014. We fit multivariable Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) relating BLLs and lung cancer with adjustment for smoking and other factors. We did not observe an overall association between BLLs and lung cancer after adjustment for smoking (both surveys) and serum cotinine and environmental tobacco smoke exposure (NHANES III), although suggestive associations were observed among women (NHANES II: HR 2.7, 95% CI 0.7, 10.0 for ≥20.0 µg/dl vs. <10.0 µg/dl, P_trend = 0.07; NHANES III: HR 11.2, 95% CI 2.1, 59.4 for ≥10.0 µg/dl vs. <2.5 µg/dl, P_trend = 0.04). After stratifying on smoking status, an association with elevated BLLs was observed in NHANES II only among former smokers (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3, 8.0 for ≥15 vs. <15 µg/dl) and in NHANES III only among current smokers (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1, 2.8 for ≥5 vs. <5 µg/dl). In summary, we found elevated BLLs to be associated with lung cancer mortality among women in both NHANES II and III. Given the absence of an association among non-smokers, we cannot rule out residual confounding as an explanation for our findings.

Risk-Based Selection of Individuals for Oral Cancer Screening

PURPOSE

We evaluated proof of principle for resource-efficient, risk-based screening through reanalysis of the Kerala Oral Cancer Screening Trial.

METHODS

The cluster-randomized trial included three triennial rounds of visual inspection (seven clusters, n = 96,516) versus standard of care (six clusters, n = 95,354) and up to 9 years of follow-up. We developed a Cox regression-based risk prediction model for oral cancer incidence. Using this risk prediction model to adjust for the oral cancer risk imbalance between arms, through intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses that accounted for cluster randomization, we calculated the relative (hazard ratios [HRs]) and absolute (rate differences [RDs]) screening efficacy on oral cancer mortality and compared screening efficiency across risk thresholds.

RESULTS

Oral cancer mortality was reduced by 27% in the screening versus control arms (HR = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.98), including a 29% reduction in ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users (HR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.99). This relative efficacy was similar across oral cancer risk quartiles (P interaction = .59); consequently, the absolute efficacy increased with increasing model-predicted risk-overall trial: RD in the lowest risk quartile (Q1) = 0.5/100,000 versus 13.4/100,000 in the highest quartile (Q4), P trend = .059 and ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users: Q1 RD = 1.0/100,000 versus Q4 = 22.5/100,000; P trend = .026. In a population akin to the Kerala trial, screening of 100% of individuals would provide 27.1% oral cancer mortality reduction at number needed to screen (NNS) = 2,043. Restriction of screening to ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users with no additional risk stratification would substantially enhance efficiency (43.4% screened for 23.3% oral cancer mortality reduction at NNS = 1,029), whereas risk prediction model-based screening of 50% of ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users at highest risk would further enhance efficiency with little loss in program sensitivity (21.7% screened for 19.7% oral cancer mortality reduction at NNS = 610).

CONCLUSION

In the Kerala trial, the efficacy of oral cancer screening was greatest in individuals at highest oral cancer risk. These results provide proof of principle that risk-based oral cancer screening could substantially enhance the efficiency of screening programs.

Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.

Lifetime Pesticide Use and Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance in a Prospective Cohort of Male Farmers

BACKGROUND

Farmers have a higher incidence of multiple myeloma, and there is suggestive evidence of an elevated prevalence of its precursor, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), relative to the general population. Pesticide exposures are suspected to play a role; however, the biologic plausibility for associations with multiple myeloma remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to examine the prevalence of MGUS and evaluate associations with a wide range of pesticides in a large sample of farmers.

METHODS

We obtained sera and assessed MGUS among 1,638 male farmers ≥ 50  years of age in the Agricultural Health Study (AHS), a prospective cohort in Iowa and North Carolina. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed to estimate associations with MGUS for recent use (within the 12 months before phlebotomy) and cumulative intensity-weighted lifetime days of use of specific pesticides.

RESULTS

The age-standardized MGUS prevalence was significantly elevated among AHS farmers (7.7%) compared with demographically similar men in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2.8%) or Olmsted County, Minnesota (3.8%; p < 0.001 ). Recent use of permethrin was associated with MGUS [recent use vs. no recent use, OR = 1.82 (95% CI: 1.06, 3.13)], especially among those who had also used it in the past [recent and past use vs. never use, OR = 2.49 (95% CI: 1.32, 4.69)]. High intensity-weighted lifetime use of the organochlorine insecticides aldrin and dieldrin was associated with MGUS relative to those who never used either of these pesticides [OR = 2.42 (95% CI: 1.29, 4.54); p trend = 0.006 ]. We also observed a positive association with high lifetime use of petroleum oil/distillates as an herbicide, as well as an inverse association with fonofos use.

DISCUSSION

This is the largest investigation of MGUS in farmers and the first to identify an association with MGUS for permethrin, a pyrethroid insecticide previously associated with multiple myeloma. Given the continued widespread use of permethrin in various residential and commercial settings, our findings may have important implications for exposed individuals in the general population. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6960.

Weight calibration to improve efficiency for estimating pure risks from the additive hazards model with the nested case-control design

We study the efficiency of covariate-specific estimates of pure risk (one minus the survival function) when some covariates are only available for case-control samples nested in a cohort. We focus on the semiparametric additive hazards model in which the hazard function equals a baseline hazard plus a linear combination of covariates with either time-varying or time-invariant coefficients. A published approach uses the design-based inclusion probabilities to reweight the nested case-control data. We obtain more efficient estimates of pure risks by calibrating the design weights to data available in the entire cohort, for both time-varying and time-invariant covariate coefficients. We develop explicit variance formulas for the weight-calibrated estimates based on influence functions. Simulations show the improvement in precision by using weight calibration and confirm the consistency of variance estimators and the validity of inference based on asymptotic normality. Examples are provided using data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Study (PLCO).

Associations between Helicobacter pylori with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and other metabolic conditions in Guatemala

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested an association between Helicobacter pylori (H pylori) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim of the current study was to examine the association in Guatemala, a region with elevated prevalences of both H pylori and NAFLD. Associations between H pylori and other metabolic conditions were also examined, as were associations between H hepaticus and H bilis and the metabolic conditions.

MATERIALS & METHODS

The analysis included 424 participants from a cross-sectional study in Guatemala. H pylori seropositivity was defined as positivity for ≥ 4 antigens. Seropositivities for H bilis and H hepaticus were defined as positivity for ≥ 2 antigens. NAFLD was estimated using the Fatty Liver Index and the Hepatic Steatosis Index. Other conditions examined were obesity, central obesity, hypercholesterolemia, low HDL, diabetes and metabolic syndrome (MetSyn). Prevalence odds ratios (POR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated.

RESULTS

No overall associations between H pylori,H hepaticus, or H bilis and NAFLD or related metabolic conditions were found. Seropositivity for H pylori antigens CagA and VacA and H hepaticus antigen HH0713 was each significantly associated with NAFLD, however. In addition, associations were observed between the H pylori antigens HyuA, HP1564, and UreA and specified metabolic conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

While no overall associations between H pylori or Helicobacter species with NAFLD or related conditions were observed, some selected Helicobacter spp. antigens were associated with NAFLD. Further research is warranted to examine whether H. species are associated with any metabolic condition.

Dietary Polyunsaturated Fat Intake in Relation to Head and Neck, Esophageal, and Gastric Cancer Incidence in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study

Recent epidemiologic studies have examined the association of fish consumption with upper gastrointestinal cancer risk, but the associations with n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) subtypes remain unclear. Using the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (United States, 1995-2011), we prospectively investigated the associations of PUFA subtypes, ratios, and fish with the incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC; n = 2,453), esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA; n = 855), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (n = 267), and gastric cancer (cardia: n = 603; noncardia: n = 631) among 468,952 participants (median follow-up, 15.5 years). A food frequency questionnaire assessed diet. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. A Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure was used for false-discovery control. Long-chain n-3 PUFAs were associated with a 20% decreased HNC and EA risk (for HNC, quintile5 vs. 1 hazard ratio = 0.81, 95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.92, and BH-adjusted Ptrend = 0.001; and for EA, quintile5 vs. 1 hazard ratio = 0.79, 95% confidence interval: 0.64, 0.98, and BH-adjusted Ptrend = 0.1). Similar associations were observed for nonfried fish but only for high intake. Further, the ratio of long-chain n-3:n-6 was associated with a decreased HNC and EA risk. No consistent associations were observed for gastric cancer. Our results indicate that dietary long-chain n-3 PUFA and nonfried fish intake are associated with lower HNC and EA risk.

Whole grain and dietary fiber intake and risk of colorectal cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort

BACKGROUND

Whole grains and other foods containing fiber are thought to be inversely related to colorectal cancer (CRC). However, whether these associations reflect fiber or fiber source remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated associations of whole grain and dietary fiber intake with CRC risk in the large NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

METHODS

We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate HRs and 95% CIs for whole grain and dietary fiber intake and risk of CRC among 478,994 US adults, aged 50-71 y. Diet was assessed using a self-administered FFQ at baseline in 1995-1996, and 10,200 incident CRC cases occurred over 16 y and 6,464,527 person-years of follow-up. We used 24-h dietary recall data, collected on a subset of participants, to evaluate the impact of measurement error on risk estimates.

RESULTS

After multivariable adjustment for potential confounders, including folate, we observed an inverse association for intake of whole grains (HRQ5 vs.Q1 : 0.84; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.90; P-trend < 0.001), but not dietary fiber (HRQ5 vs. Q1: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.04; P-trend = 0.40), with CRC incidence. Intake of whole grains was inversely associated with all CRC cancer subsites, particularly rectal cancer (HRQ5 vs. Q1: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.87; P-trend < 0.001). Fiber from grains, but not other sources, was associated with lower incidence of CRC (HRQ5 vs. Q1: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.96; P-trend < 0.001), particularly distal colon (HRQ5 vs. Q1: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.73, 0.96; P-trend = 0.005) and rectal cancer (HRQ5 vs. Q1: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.88; P-trend < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary guidance for CRC prevention should focus on intake of whole grains as a source of fiber.