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Kambach S, Attorre F, Axmanová I, Bergamini A, Biurrun I, Bonari G, Carranza ML, Chiarucci A, Chytrý M, Dengler J, Garbolino E, Golub V, Hickler T, Jandt U, Jansen J, Jiménez-Alfaro B, Karger DN, Lososová Z, Rašomavičius V, Rūsiņa S, Sieber P, Stanisci A, Thuiller W, Welk E, Zimmermann NE, Bruelheide H. Climate regulation processes are linked to the functional composition of plant communities in European forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17189. [PMID: 38375686 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Revised: 01/05/2024] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 02/21/2024]
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems affect climate by reflecting solar irradiation, evaporative cooling, and carbon sequestration. Yet very little is known about how plant traits affect climate regulation processes (CRPs) in different habitat types. Here, we used linear and random forest models to relate the community-weighted mean and variance values of 19 plant traits (summarized into eight trait axes) to the climate-adjusted proportion of reflected solar irradiation, evapotranspiration, and net primary productivity across 36,630 grid cells at the European extent, classified into 10 types of forest, shrubland, and grassland habitats. We found that these trait axes were more tightly linked to log evapotranspiration (with an average of 6.2% explained variation) and the proportion of reflected solar irradiation (6.1%) than to net primary productivity (4.9%). The highest variation in CRPs was explained in forest and temperate shrubland habitats. Yet, the strength and direction of these relationships were strongly habitat-dependent. We conclude that any spatial upscaling of the effects of plant communities on CRPs must consider the relative contribution of different habitat types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephan Kambach
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | - Fabio Attorre
- Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Roma, Italy
| | - Irena Axmanová
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Ariel Bergamini
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Idoia Biurrun
- Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Bilbao, Spain
| | | | - Maria Laura Carranza
- Envixlab, Department of Biosciences and Territory, University of Molise, Pesche, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), Palermo, Italy
| | - Alessandro Chiarucci
- BIOME Lab, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BiGeA), Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Milan Chytrý
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Jürgen Dengler
- Vegetation Ecology Research Group, Institute of Natural Resource Sciences (IUNR), Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), Wädenswil, Switzerland
- Bayreuth Center for Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany
| | | | | | - Thomas Hickler
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Department of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Ute Jandt
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Jan Jansen
- Department of Ecology and Physiology, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Borja Jiménez-Alfaro
- IMIB Biodiversity Research Institute (Univ. Oviedo-CSIC-Princ. Asturias), University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain
| | | | - Zdeňka Lososová
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | | | - Solvita Rūsiņa
- Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
| | - Petra Sieber
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Angela Stanisci
- Envixlab, Department of Biosciences and Territory, University of Molise, Pesche, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), Palermo, Italy
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Grenoble, France
| | - Erik Welk
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | | | - Helge Bruelheide
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
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2
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Marti B, Yakovlev A, Karger DN, Ragettli S, Zhumabaev A, Wakil AW, Siegfried T. CA-discharge: Geo-Located Discharge Time Series for Mountainous Rivers in Central Asia. Sci Data 2023; 10:579. [PMID: 37666883 PMCID: PMC10477246 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02474-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Accepted: 08/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/06/2023] Open
Abstract
We present a collection of 295 gauge locations in mountainous Central Asia with norm discharge as well as time series of river discharge from 135 of these locations collected from hydrological yearbooks in Central Asia. Time series have monthly, 10-day and daily temporal resolution and are available for different duration. A collection of third-party data allows basin characterization for all gauges. The time series data is validated using standard quality checks. Norm discharge is validated against literature values and by using a water balance approach. The novelty of the data consists in the combination of discharge time series and gauge locations for mountainous rivers in Central Asia which is not available anywhere else. The geo-located discharge time series can be used for water balance modelling and training of forecast models for river runoff in mountainous Central Asia.
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3
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Karger DN, Saladin B, Wüest RO, Graham CH, Zurell D, Mo L, Zimmermann NE. Interannual climate variability improves niche estimates for ectothermic but not endothermic species. Sci Rep 2023; 13:12538. [PMID: 37532828 PMCID: PMC10397316 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-39637-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate is an important limiting factor of species' niches and it is therefore regularly included in ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values, yet many species experience wide climatic variation over their lifespan and within their geographical range which is unlikely captured by long-term means. Further, depending on their physiology, distinct groups of species cope with climate variability differently. Ectothermic species, which are directly dependent on the thermal environment are expected to show a different response to temporal or spatial variability in temperature than endothermic groups that can decouple their internal temperature from that of their surroundings. Here, we explore the degree to which spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation change niche estimates for ectothermic (730 amphibian, 1276 reptile), and endothermic (1961 mammal) species globally. We use three different species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability, based on global range maps of all species and climate data from 1979 to 2013. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The mean performance of SDMs using only climatic means as predictors was TSS = 0.71 and AUC = 0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS = 0.74, mean AUC = 0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS = 0.80, mean AUC = 0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows the highest scores in AUC and TSS. Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in ectotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endothermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that including long term climate interannual climate variability into niche estimations matters most for ectothermic species that cannot decouple their physiology from the surrounding environment as endothermic species can.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
| | - Bianca Saladin
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Rafael O Wüest
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Catherine H Graham
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 3, 14469, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Lidong Mo
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Niklaus E Zimmermann
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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4
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Kambach S, Sabatini FM, Attorre F, Biurrun I, Boenisch G, Bonari G, Čarni A, Carranza ML, Chiarucci A, Chytrý M, Dengler J, Garbolino E, Golub V, Güler B, Jandt U, Jansen J, Jašková A, Jiménez-Alfaro B, Karger DN, Kattge J, Knollová I, Midolo G, Moeslund JE, Pielech R, Rašomavičius V, Rūsiņa S, Šibík J, Stančić Z, Stanisci A, Svenning JC, Yamalov S, Zimmermann NE, Bruelheide H. Climate-trait relationships exhibit strong habitat specificity in plant communities across Europe. Nat Commun 2023; 14:712. [PMID: 36759605 PMCID: PMC9911725 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36240-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 01/20/2023] [Indexed: 02/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Ecological theory predicts close relationships between macroclimate and functional traits. Yet, global climatic gradients correlate only weakly with the trait composition of local plant communities, suggesting that important factors have been ignored. Here, we investigate the consistency of climate-trait relationships for plant communities in European habitats. Assuming that local factors are better accounted for in more narrowly defined habitats, we assigned > 300,000 vegetation plots to hierarchically classified habitats and modelled the effects of climate on the community-weighted means of four key functional traits using generalized additive models. We found that the predictive power of climate increased from broadly to narrowly defined habitats for specific leaf area and root length, but not for plant height and seed mass. Although macroclimate generally predicted the distribution of all traits, its effects varied, with habitat-specificity increasing toward more narrowly defined habitats. We conclude that macroclimate is an important determinant of terrestrial plant communities, but future predictions of climatic effects must consider how habitats are defined.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephan Kambach
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany. .,German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
| | - Francesco Maria Sabatini
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany.,German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,BIOME Lab, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BiGeA), Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.,Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague - Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Fabio Attorre
- Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Roma, Italy
| | - Idoia Biurrun
- Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Bilbao, Spain
| | | | - Gianmaria Bonari
- Faculty of Science and Technology, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Bolzano, Italy
| | - Andraž Čarni
- Research Centre of the Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Jovan Hadži Institute of Biology, ZRC-SAZU, Ljubljana, Slovenia.,University of Nova Gorica, School for Viticulture and Enology, Nova Gorica, Slovenia
| | - Maria Laura Carranza
- Envixlab, Department of Biosciences and Territory, University of Molise, Pesche, Italy
| | - Alessandro Chiarucci
- BIOME Lab, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BiGeA), Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Milan Chytrý
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Jürgen Dengler
- Vegetation Ecology Research Group, Institute of Natural Resource Sciences (IUNR), Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), Wädenswil, Switzerland.,Plant Ecology, Bayreuth Center for Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany
| | - Emmanuel Garbolino
- Climpact Data Science (CDS), Nova Sophia - Regus Nova, Sophia Antipolis Cedex, France
| | - Valentin Golub
- Samara Federal Research Scientific Center, Institute of Ecology of the Volga River Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences, Togliatti, Russia
| | - Behlül Güler
- Biology Education, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey
| | - Ute Jandt
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany.,German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Jan Jansen
- Department of Ecology and Physiology, Faculty of Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Anni Jašková
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Borja Jiménez-Alfaro
- IMIB Biodiversity Research Institute (Univ.Oviedo-CSIC-Princ. Asturias), University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain
| | | | - Jens Kattge
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| | - Ilona Knollová
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Gabriele Midolo
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | | | - Remigiusz Pielech
- Department of Forest Biodiversity, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Kraków, Poland
| | | | - Solvita Rūsiņa
- Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
| | - Jozef Šibík
- Institute of Botany, Plant Science and Biodiversity Center, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Zvjezdana Stančić
- Faculty of Geotechnical Engineering, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Angela Stanisci
- Envixlab, Department of Biosciences and Territory, University of Molise, Pesche, Italy
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Sergey Yamalov
- Botanical Garden-Institute, Ufa Scientific Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russia
| | | | - Helge Bruelheide
- Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany.,German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
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5
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Cai L, Kreft H, Taylor A, Denelle P, Schrader J, Essl F, van Kleunen M, Pergl J, Pyšek P, Stein A, Winter M, Barcelona JF, Fuentes N, Karger DN, Kartesz J, Kuprijanov A, Nishino M, Nickrent D, Nowak A, Patzelt A, Pelser PB, Singh P, Wieringa JJ, Weigelt P. Global models and predictions of plant diversity based on advanced machine learning techniques. New Phytol 2023; 237:1432-1445. [PMID: 36375492 DOI: 10.1111/nph.18533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Despite the paramount role of plant diversity for ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and human welfare, knowledge of its global distribution is still incomplete, hampering basic research and biodiversity conservation. Here, we used machine learning (random forests, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks) and conventional statistical methods (generalized linear models and generalized additive models) to test environment-related hypotheses of broad-scale vascular plant diversity gradients and to model and predict species richness and phylogenetic richness worldwide. To this end, we used 830 regional plant inventories including c. 300 000 species and predictors of past and present environmental conditions. Machine learning showed a superior performance, explaining up to 80.9% of species richness and 83.3% of phylogenetic richness, illustrating the great potential of such techniques for disentangling complex and interacting associations between the environment and plant diversity. Current climate and environmental heterogeneity emerged as the primary drivers, while past environmental conditions left only small but detectable imprints on plant diversity. Finally, we combined predictions from multiple modeling techniques (ensemble predictions) to reveal global patterns and centers of plant diversity at multiple resolutions down to 7774 km2 . Our predictive maps provide accurate estimates of global plant diversity available at grain sizes relevant for conservation and macroecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lirong Cai
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Holger Kreft
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use, University of Göttingen, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Amanda Taylor
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Pierre Denelle
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Julian Schrader
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
- School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, 2109, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Franz Essl
- Bioinvasions, Global Change, Macroecology-Group, University of Vienna, 1030, Vienna, Austria
| | - Mark van Kleunen
- Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, 78464, Konstanz, Germany
- Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation, Taizhou University, 318000, Taizhou, China
| | - Jan Pergl
- Department of Invasion Ecology, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, 25243, Průhonice, Czech Republic
| | - Petr Pyšek
- Department of Invasion Ecology, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, 25243, Průhonice, Czech Republic
- Department of Ecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, 12844, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Anke Stein
- Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, 78464, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Marten Winter
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Julie F Barcelona
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, 8140, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Nicol Fuentes
- Departamento de Botánica, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Oceanográficas, Universidad de Concepción, 4030000, Concepción, Chile
| | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - John Kartesz
- Biota of North America Program (BONAP), Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA
| | | | - Misako Nishino
- Biota of North America Program (BONAP), Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA
| | - Daniel Nickrent
- Plant Biology Section, School of Integrative Plant Science, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
| | - Arkadiusz Nowak
- Department of Botany and Nature Protection, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, 10-728, Olsztyn, Poland
- PAS Botanical Garden, 02-973, Warszawa, Poland
| | - Annette Patzelt
- Hochschule Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, University of Applied Sciences, Vegetation Ecology, 85354, Freising, Germany
| | - Pieter B Pelser
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, 8140, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | | | - Jan J Wieringa
- Naturalis Biodiversity Center, 2333 CR, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Patrick Weigelt
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use, University of Göttingen, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
- Campus-Institut Data Science, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
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6
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Alsos IG, Rijal DP, Ehrich D, Karger DN, Yoccoz NG, Heintzman PD, Brown AG, Lammers Y, Pellissier L, Alm T, Bråthen KA, Coissac E, Merkel MKF, Alberti A, Denoeud F, Bakke J. Postglacial species arrival and diversity buildup of northern ecosystems took millennia. Sci Adv 2022; 8:eabo7434. [PMID: 36170372 PMCID: PMC9519041 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abo7434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 08/12/2022] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
What drives ecosystem buildup, diversity, and stability? We assess species arrival and ecosystem changes across 16 millennia by combining regional-scale plant sedimentary ancient DNA from Fennoscandia with near-complete DNA and trait databases. We show that postglacial arrival time varies within and between plant growth forms. Further, arrival times were mainly predicted by adaptation to temperature, disturbance, and light. Major break points in ecological trait diversity were seen between 13.9 and 10.8 calibrated thousand years before the present (cal ka BP), as well as break point in functional diversity at 12.0 cal ka BP, shifting from a state of ecosystem buildup to a state where most habitat types and biotic ecosystem components were in place. Trait and functional diversity stabilized around 8 cal ka BP, after which both remained stable, although changes in climate took place and species inflow continued. Our ecosystem reconstruction indicates a millennial-scale time phase of formation to reach stable and resilient levels of diversity and functioning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Inger Greve Alsos
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Dilli Prasad Rijal
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Institute of Marine Research, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Dorothee Ehrich
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Nigel Gilles Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Peter D. Heintzman
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Antony G. Brown
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Youri Lammers
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Torbjørn Alm
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Kari Anne Bråthen
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Eric Coissac
- Université Grenoble-Alpes, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | | | - Adriana Alberti
- Génomique Métabolique, Genoscope, Institut François Jacob, CEA, CNRS, Université Evry, Université Paris-Saclay, Evry, France
| | - France Denoeud
- Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Jostein Bakke
- Department of Earth Science and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
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7
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Brambilla M, Rubolini D, Appukuttan O, Calvi G, Karger DN, Kmecl P, Mihelič T, Sattler T, Seaman B, Teufelbauer N, Wahl J, Celada C. Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions. Glob Chang Biol 2022; 28:4276-4291. [PMID: 35441422 PMCID: PMC9546033 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Revised: 03/26/2022] [Accepted: 03/30/2022] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high-elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041-2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in-situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex-situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high-resolution occurrence dataset (2901-12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%-59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km2 of the Alpine region as in-situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%-66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine high-elevation species and habitats, where habitat degradation/alteration by human activities should be prevented to ensure future suitability for alpine species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mattia Brambilla
- Lipu/BirdLife ItaliaParmaItaly
- MUSE–Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei VertebratiTrentoItaly
- Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente, Settore Biodiversità e aree protetteMilanoItaly
- Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche AmbientaliUniversità degli Studi di MilanoMilanoItaly
| | - Diego Rubolini
- Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche AmbientaliUniversità degli Studi di MilanoMilanoItaly
- Istituto di Ricerca sulle Acque, IRSA‐CNRBrugherioItaly
| | - Ojan Appukuttan
- Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche AmbientaliUniversità degli Studi di MilanoMilanoItaly
| | | | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL)BirmensdorfSwitzerland
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Johannes Wahl
- Dachverband Deutscher Avifaunisten (DDA)MünsterGermany
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8
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Bose AK, Scherrer D, Camarero JJ, Ziche D, Babst F, Bigler C, Bolte A, Dorado-Liñán I, Etzold S, Fonti P, Forrester DI, Gavinet J, Gazol A, de Andrés EG, Karger DN, Lebourgeois F, Lévesque M, Martínez-Sancho E, Menzel A, Neuwirth B, Nicolas M, Sanders TGM, Scharnweber T, Schröder J, Zweifel R, Gessler A, Rigling A. Climate sensitivity and drought seasonality determine post-drought growth recovery of Quercus petraea and Quercus robur in Europe. Sci Total Environ 2021; 784:147222. [PMID: 34088042 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2021] [Revised: 04/14/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Recent studies have identified strong relationships between delayed recovery of tree growth after drought and tree mortality caused by subsequent droughts. These observations raise concerns about forest ecosystem services and post-drought growth recovery given the projected increase in drought frequency and extremes. For quantifying the impact of extreme droughts on tree radial growth, we used a network of tree-ring width data of 1689 trees from 100 sites representing most of the distribution of two drought tolerant, deciduous oak species (Quercus petraea and Quercus robur). We first examined which climatic factors and seasons control growth of the two species and if there is any latitudinal, longitudinal or elevational trend. We then quantified the relative departure from pre-drought growth during droughts, and how fast trees were able to recover the pre-drought growth level. Our results showed that growth was more related to precipitation and climatic water balance (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) than to temperature. However, we did not detect any clear latitudinal, longitudinal or elevational trends except a decreasing influence of summer water balance on growth of Q. petraea with latitude. Neither species was able to maintain the pre-drought growth level during droughts. However, both species showed rapid recovery or even growth compensation after summer droughts but displayed slow recovery in response to spring droughts where none of the two species was able to fully recover the pre-drought growth-level over the three post-drought years. Collectively, our results indicate that oaks which are considered resilient to extreme droughts have also shown vulnerability when droughts occurred in spring especially at sites where long-term growth is not significantly correlated with climatic factors. This improved understanding of the role of drought seasonality and climate sensitivity of sites is key to better predict trajectories of post-drought growth recovery in response to the drier climate projected for Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arun K Bose
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Forestry and Wood Technology Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh.
| | - Daniel Scherrer
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - J Julio Camarero
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Avda. Montañana 1005, Apdo. 202, Zaragoza E-50192, Spain
| | - Daniel Ziche
- Faculty of Forest and Environment, Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
| | - Flurin Babst
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA
| | - Christof Bigler
- ETH Zurich, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Universitätstrasse 22, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Andreas Bolte
- Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems, Alfred-Moeller-Str. 1, Haus 41/42, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
| | - Isabel Dorado-Liñán
- Forest Genetics and Ecophysiology Research Group, E.T.S. Forestry Engineering, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain
| | - Sophia Etzold
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Patrick Fonti
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - David I Forrester
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Jordane Gavinet
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), UMR 5175, CNRS, Univ Montpellier, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, 1919 route de Mende, F-34293 Montpellier, Cedex 5, France
| | - Antonio Gazol
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Avda. Montañana 1005, Apdo. 202, Zaragoza E-50192, Spain
| | - Ester González de Andrés
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Avda. Montañana 1005, Apdo. 202, Zaragoza E-50192, Spain
| | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | | | - Mathieu Lévesque
- ETH Zurich, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Universitätstrasse 22, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Elisabet Martínez-Sancho
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Annette Menzel
- Technische Universität München, TUM School of Life Sciences, Freising, Germany; Technische Universität München, Institute for Advanced Study, Garching, Germany
| | | | - Manuel Nicolas
- Departement Recherche et Développement, ONF, Office National des Fôrets, Batiment B, Boulevard de Constance, Fontainebleau F-77300, France
| | - Tanja G M Sanders
- Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems, Alfred-Moeller-Str. 1, Haus 41/42, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
| | - Tobias Scharnweber
- Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Soldmannstr.15, 17487 Greifswald, Germany
| | - Jens Schröder
- Faculty of Forest and Environment, Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
| | - Roman Zweifel
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Arthur Gessler
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Andreas Rigling
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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9
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Laughlin DC, Mommer L, Sabatini FM, Bruelheide H, Kuyper TW, McCormack ML, Bergmann J, Freschet GT, Guerrero-Ramírez NR, Iversen CM, Kattge J, Meier IC, Poorter H, Roumet C, Semchenko M, Sweeney CJ, Valverde-Barrantes OJ, van der Plas F, van Ruijven J, York LM, Aubin I, Burge OR, Byun C, Ćušterevska R, Dengler J, Forey E, Guerin GR, Hérault B, Jackson RB, Karger DN, Lenoir J, Lysenko T, Meir P, Niinemets Ü, Ozinga WA, Peñuelas J, Reich PB, Schmidt M, Schrodt F, Velázquez E, Weigelt A. Root traits explain plant species distributions along climatic gradients yet challenge the nature of ecological trade-offs. Nat Ecol Evol 2021; 5:1123-1134. [PMID: 34112996 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01471-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Ecological theory is built on trade-offs, where trait differences among species evolved as adaptations to different environments. Trade-offs are often assumed to be bidirectional, where opposite ends of a gradient in trait values confer advantages in different environments. However, unidirectional benefits could be widespread if extreme trait values confer advantages at one end of an environmental gradient, whereas a wide range of trait values are equally beneficial at the other end. Here, we show that root traits explain species occurrences along broad gradients of temperature and water availability, but model predictions only resembled trade-offs in two out of 24 models. Forest species with low specific root length and high root tissue density (RTD) were more likely to occur in warm climates but species with high specific root length and low RTD were more likely to occur in cold climates. Unidirectional benefits were more prevalent than trade-offs: for example, species with large-diameter roots and high RTD were more commonly associated with dry climates, but species with the opposite trait values were not associated with wet climates. Directional selection for traits consistently occurred in cold or dry climates, whereas a diversity of root trait values were equally viable in warm or wet climates. Explicit integration of unidirectional benefits into ecological theory is needed to advance our understanding of the consequences of trait variation on species responses to environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Liesje Mommer
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Francesco Maria Sabatini
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Helge Bruelheide
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,Institute of Biology/Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Thom W Kuyper
- Soil Biology Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | | | - Joana Bergmann
- Sustainable Grassland Systems, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Paulinenaue, Germany
| | - Grégoire T Freschet
- Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station (SETE), National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Moulis, France
| | - Nathaly R Guerrero-Ramírez
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, Faculty of Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology, University of Goettingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Colleen M Iversen
- Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
| | - Jens Kattge
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,Functional Biogeography, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| | - Ina C Meier
- Functional Forest Ecology, Department of Biology, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Hendrik Poorter
- Plant Sciences (IBG-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany.,Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Catherine Roumet
- CEFE, University of Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Marina Semchenko
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.,Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Christopher J Sweeney
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Oscar J Valverde-Barrantes
- Institute of Environment, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Fons van der Plas
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.,Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Jasper van Ruijven
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | | | - Isabelle Aubin
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, Canada
| | - Olivia R Burge
- Ecosystems and Conservation, Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand
| | - Chaeho Byun
- Department of Biological Sciences and Biotechnology, Andong National University, Andong, Republic of Korea
| | - Renata Ćušterevska
- Institute of Biology, University of Ss. Cyril and Methodius, Skopje, North Macedonia
| | - Jürgen Dengler
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Natural Resource Sciences (IUNR), Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), Wädenswil, Switzerland.,Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany
| | - Estelle Forey
- Normandie Université, UNIROUEN, INRAE, ECODIV, Rouen, France
| | - Greg R Guerin
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.,Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN), The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Bruno Hérault
- CIRAD, UPR Forêts et Sociétés, Yamoussoukro, Côte d'Ivoire.,Forêts et Sociétés, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France.,Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Yamoussoukro, Côte d'Ivoire
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.,Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Biodiversity and Conservation Biology, Spatial Evolutionary Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UMR CNRS 7058 'Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN)', Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Tatiana Lysenko
- Laboratory of Vegetation Science, Komarov Botanical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Saint Petersburg, Russia.,Laboratory of Phytodiversity Problems and Phytocoenology, Institute of Ecology of the Volga River Basin, Samara Scientific Center, RAS, Togliatti, Russia.,Group of Ecology of living organisms, Tobolsk Complex Scientific Station, Ural Branch, RAS, Tobolsk, Russia
| | - Patrick Meir
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.,School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ülo Niinemets
- Crop Science and Plant Biology, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia.,Estonian Academy of Sciences, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Wim A Ozinga
- Vegetation, Forest and Landscape Ecology, Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Josep Peñuelas
- CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain.,CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - Peter B Reich
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA.,Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Marco Schmidt
- Data and Modelling Centre, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt, Germany.,Palmengarten, Frankfurt, Germany
| | | | - Eduardo Velázquez
- Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute, University of Valladolid and INIA, Palencia, Spain.,School of Agricultural Engineering, University of Valladolid, Palencia, Spain
| | - Alexandra Weigelt
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,Systematic Botany and Functional Biodiversity, Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
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10
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Karger DN, Schmatz DR, Dettling G, Zimmermann NE. High-resolution monthly precipitation and temperature time series from 2006 to 2100. Sci Data 2020; 7:248. [PMID: 32703947 PMCID: PMC7378208 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00587-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting future climatic conditions at high spatial resolution is essential for many applications and impact studies in science. Here, we present monthly time series data on precipitation, minimum- and maximum temperature for four downscaled global circulation models. We used model output statistics in combination with mechanistic downscaling (the CHELSA algorithm) to calculate mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as monthly precipitation at ~5 km spatial resolution globally for the years 2006-2100. We validated the performance of the downscaling algorithm by comparing model output with the observed climate of the historical period 1950-1969.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
| | - Dirk R Schmatz
- Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Gabriel Dettling
- Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Niklaus E Zimmermann
- Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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11
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Grünig M, Mazzi D, Calanca P, Karger DN, Pellissier L. Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change. Commun Biol 2020; 3:233. [PMID: 32393851 PMCID: PMC7214431 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-020-0962-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2020] [Accepted: 04/17/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a metaweb approach including all interaction links between 126 crops and forest tree species and 89 black-listed insect pest species, we show that the metawebs shift toward increased numbers of links and overlap of suitable area under climate change. Decomposing the metaweb across regions shows large saturation in southern Europe, while many novel interactions are expected for northern Europe. In light of the rising consumer awareness about human health and environmental impacts of food and wood production, the challenge will be to effectively exploit new opportunities to create diverse local agriculture and forestry while controlling pest species and reducing risks from pesticide use. Marc Grünig et al. report a study of land-use opportunities and risks of introducing novel insect pests in Europe that may arise from global climate change. Using a metaweb approach, they find that there is a predicted general increase in risk of pests to managed plant species under climate change due to an increase in land with suitable climate for both pests and plants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marc Grünig
- Agroscope, RD Plant Protection, Wädenswil, Switzerland. .,Agroscope, RD Agroecology and Environment, Zurich, Switzerland. .,ETH, Landscape Ecology, Zurich, Switzerland. .,Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
| | | | | | | | - Loïc Pellissier
- ETH, Landscape Ecology, Zurich, Switzerland.,Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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12
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Chen CW, Rothfels CJ, Mustapeng AMA, Gubilil M, Karger DN, Kessler M, Huang YM. End of an enigma: Aenigmopteris belongs in Tectaria (Tectariaceae: Polypodiopsida). J Plant Res 2018; 131:67-76. [PMID: 28741041 DOI: 10.1007/s10265-017-0966-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2017] [Accepted: 06/26/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
The phylogenetic affinities of the fern genus Aenigmopteris have been the subject of considerable disagreement, but until now, no molecular data were available from the genus. Based on the analysis of three chloroplast DNA regions (rbcL, rps16-matK, and trnL-F) we demonstrate that Aenigmopteris dubia (the type species of the genus) and A. elegans are closely related and deeply imbedded in Tectaria. The other three species of genus are morphologically very similar; we therefore transfer all five known species into Tectaria. Detailed morphological comparison further shows that previously proposed diagnostic characters of Aenigmopteris fall within the range of variation of a broadly circumscribed Tectaria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng-Wei Chen
- Division of Silviculture, Taiwan Forestry Research Institute, 53 Nan-Hai Rd., Taipei, 100, Taiwan
| | - Carl J Rothfels
- University Herbarium and Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
| | - Andi Maryani A Mustapeng
- Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, PO Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Markus Gubilil
- Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, PO Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Institute of Systematic Botany, University of Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Michael Kessler
- Institute of Systematic Botany, University of Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Yao-Moan Huang
- Division of Silviculture, Taiwan Forestry Research Institute, 53 Nan-Hai Rd., Taipei, 100, Taiwan.
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13
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Karger DN, Conrad O, Böhner J, Kawohl T, Kreft H, Soria-Auza RW, Zimmermann NE, Linder HP, Kessler M. Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas. Sci Data 2017. [PMID: 28872642 DOI: 10.1594/wdcc/chelsa_v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/17/2023] Open
Abstract
High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstr 111, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
| | - Olaf Conrad
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Jürgen Böhner
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Tobias Kawohl
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Holger Kreft
- Biodiversity, Macroecology &Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, Göttingen 37077, Germany
| | - Rodrigo Wilber Soria-Auza
- Biodiversity, Macroecology &Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, Göttingen 37077, Germany
- Asociación Armonía, Av. Lomas de Arena # 400, Zona Palmasola, Santa Cruz de la Sierra 10260, Bolivia
| | - Niklaus E Zimmermann
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstr 111, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
| | - H Peter Linder
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
| | - Michael Kessler
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
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14
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Karger DN, Conrad O, Böhner J, Kawohl T, Kreft H, Soria-Auza RW, Zimmermann NE, Linder HP, Kessler M. Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas. Sci Data 2017. [PMID: 28872642 DOI: 10.5061/dryad.kd1d4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/24/2023] Open
Abstract
High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstr 111, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
| | - Olaf Conrad
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Jürgen Böhner
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Tobias Kawohl
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Holger Kreft
- Biodiversity, Macroecology &Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, Göttingen 37077, Germany
| | - Rodrigo Wilber Soria-Auza
- Biodiversity, Macroecology &Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, Göttingen 37077, Germany
- Asociación Armonía, Av. Lomas de Arena # 400, Zona Palmasola, Santa Cruz de la Sierra 10260, Bolivia
| | - Niklaus E Zimmermann
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstr 111, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
| | - H Peter Linder
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
| | - Michael Kessler
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
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Karger DN, Conrad O, Böhner J, Kawohl T, Kreft H, Soria-Auza RW, Zimmermann NE, Linder HP, Kessler M. Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas. Sci Data 2017; 4:170122. [PMID: 28872642 PMCID: PMC5584396 DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2017.122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1012] [Impact Index Per Article: 144.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2016] [Accepted: 07/21/2017] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstr 111, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
| | - Olaf Conrad
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Jürgen Böhner
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Tobias Kawohl
- Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Holger Kreft
- Biodiversity, Macroecology & Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, Göttingen 37077, Germany
| | - Rodrigo Wilber Soria-Auza
- Biodiversity, Macroecology & Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, Göttingen 37077, Germany
- Asociación Armonía, Av. Lomas de Arena # 400, Zona Palmasola, Santa Cruz de la Sierra 10260, Bolivia
| | | | - H. Peter Linder
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
| | - Michael Kessler
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich 8008, Switzerland
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Lehtonen S, Silvestro D, Karger DN, Scotese C, Tuomisto H, Kessler M, Peña C, Wahlberg N, Antonelli A. Environmentally driven extinction and opportunistic origination explain fern diversification patterns. Sci Rep 2017; 7:4831. [PMID: 28684788 PMCID: PMC5500532 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-05263-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2017] [Accepted: 05/25/2017] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Combining palaeontological and neontological data offers a unique opportunity to investigate the relative roles of biotic and abiotic controls of species diversification, and the importance of origination versus extinction in driving evolutionary dynamics. Ferns comprise a major terrestrial plant radiation with an extensive evolutionary history providing a wealth of modern and fossil data for modelling environmental drivers of diversification. Here we develop a novel Bayesian model to simultaneously estimate correlations between diversification dynamics and multiple environmental trajectories. We estimate the impact of different factors on fern diversification over the past 400 million years by analysing a comprehensive dataset of fossil occurrences and complement these findings by analysing a large molecular phylogeny. We show that origination and extinction rates are governed by fundamentally different processes: originations depend on within-group diversity but are largely unaffected by environmental changes, whereas extinctions are strongly affected by external factors such as climate and geology. Our results indicate that the prime driver of fern diversity dynamics is environmentally driven extinction, with origination being an opportunistic response to diminishing ecospace occupancy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuli Lehtonen
- Herbarium, Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.
| | - Daniele Silvestro
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22B, Gothenburg, 413 19, Sweden.
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Box 461, SE-405 30, Gothenburg, Sweden.
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Quartier Sorge, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.
| | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, 8008, Zurich, Switzerland
| | | | - Hanna Tuomisto
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Michael Kessler
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, 8008, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Carlos Peña
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Niklas Wahlberg
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
- Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Alexandre Antonelli
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22B, Gothenburg, 413 19, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Box 461, SE-405 30, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Botanical Garden, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22 A, Gothenburg, 413 19, Sweden
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Abrahamczyk S, Kessler M, Hanley D, Karger DN, Müller MPJ, Knauer AC, Keller F, Schwerdtfeger M, Humphreys AM. Pollinator adaptation and the evolution of floral nectar sugar composition. J Evol Biol 2016; 30:112-127. [PMID: 27747987 DOI: 10.1111/jeb.12991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2016] [Revised: 10/08/2016] [Accepted: 10/12/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
A long-standing debate concerns whether nectar sugar composition evolves as an adaptation to pollinator dietary requirements or whether it is 'phylogenetically constrained'. Here, we use a modelling approach to evaluate the hypothesis that nectar sucrose proportion (NSP) is an adaptation to pollinators. We analyse ~ 2100 species of asterids, spanning several plant families and pollinator groups (PGs), and show that the hypothesis of adaptation cannot be rejected: NSP evolves towards two optimal values, high NSP for specialist-pollinated and low NSP for generalist-pollinated plants. However, the inferred adaptive process is weak, suggesting that adaptation to PG only provides a partial explanation for how nectar evolves. Additional factors are therefore needed to fully explain nectar evolution, and we suggest that future studies might incorporate floral shape and size and the abiotic environment into the analytical framework. Further, we show that NSP and PG evolution are correlated - in a manner dictated by pollinator behaviour. This contrasts with the view that a plant necessarily has to adapt its nectar composition to ensure pollination but rather suggests that pollinators adapt their foraging behaviour or dietary requirements to the nectar sugar composition presented by the plants. Finally, we document unexpectedly sucrose-poor nectar in some specialized nectarivorous bird-pollinated plants from the Old World, which might represent an overlooked form of pollinator deception. Thus, our broad study provides several new insights into how nectar evolves and we conclude by discussing why maintaining the conceptual dichotomy between adaptation and constraint might be unhelpful for advancing this field.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Abrahamczyk
- Nees Institute for Plant Biodiversity, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - M Kessler
- Institute of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - D Hanley
- Department of Biology, Long Island University - Post, Brookville, NY, USA
| | - D N Karger
- Institute of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - M P J Müller
- Institute of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - A C Knauer
- Institute of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - F Keller
- Institute of Plant Science, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - M Schwerdtfeger
- Albrecht-v.-Haller Institute of Plant Science, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
| | - A M Humphreys
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Berkshire, UK.,Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, University of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden
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Karger DN. Recent advances in probabilistic species pool delineations. Frontiers of Biogeography 2016. [DOI: 10.21425/f5fbg30545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
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Weigelt P, Kissling WD, Kisel Y, Fritz SA, Karger DN, Kessler M, Lehtonen S, Svenning JC, Kreft H. Global patterns and drivers of phylogenetic structure in island floras. Sci Rep 2015. [PMID: 26198002 PMCID: PMC4510489 DOI: 10.1038/srep12213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Islands are ideal for investigating processes that shape species assemblages because they are isolated and have discrete boundaries. Quantifying phylogenetic assemblage structure allows inferences about these processes, in particular dispersal, environmental filtering and in-situ speciation. Here, we link phylogenetic assemblage structure to island characteristics across 393 islands worldwide and 37,041 vascular plant species (representing angiosperms overall, palms and ferns). Physical and bioclimatic factors, especially those impeding colonization and promoting speciation, explained more variation in phylogenetic structure of angiosperms overall (49%) and palms (52%) than of ferns (18%). The relationships showed different or contrasting trends among these major plant groups, consistent with their dispersal- and speciation-related traits and climatic adaptations. Phylogenetic diversity was negatively related to isolation for palms, but unexpectedly it was positively related to isolation for angiosperms overall. This indicates strong dispersal filtering for the predominantly large-seeded, animal-dispersed palm family whereas colonization from biogeographically distinct source pools on remote islands likely drives the phylogenetic structure of angiosperm floras. We show that signatures of dispersal limitation, environmental filtering and in-situ speciation differ markedly among taxonomic groups on islands, which sheds light on the origin of insular plant diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick Weigelt
- 1] Biodiversity, Macroecology &Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany [2] Systemic Conservation Biology, University of Göttingen, 37073 Göttingen, Germany
| | - W Daniel Kissling
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), University of Amsterdam, 1090 GE Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Yael Kisel
- Biodiversity, Macroecology &Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Susanne A Fritz
- Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) &Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany
| | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- 1] Institute of Systematic Botany, University of Zurich, 8008 Zurich, Switzerland [2] Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014 Turku, Finland
| | - Michael Kessler
- Institute of Systematic Botany, University of Zurich, 8008 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Samuli Lehtonen
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014 Turku, Finland
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Section for Ecoinformatics &Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Holger Kreft
- Biodiversity, Macroecology &Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
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