Uptake of intra-muscular vitamin K administration after birth: A national cohort study

AIM

A long-acting monoclonal antibody against RSV (nirsevimab), given as an injection shortly after birth, is currently being rolled out globally. Carer acceptance of intra-muscular (IM) vitamin K, another injection given shortly after birth, could serve to indicate the acceptability of nirsevimab.

METHODS

We analysed a national dataset of postnatal health visitor visits in Scotland; individual-level data on gestation were not available. The primary outcome measure was the modality of administration of vitamin K; potential explanatory variables were maternal age, infant ethnicity, English as a first language, and measures of socio-economic deprivation. We examined associations between IM vitamin K administration or oral/no vitamin K and each explanatory variable.

RESULTS

From 2019 to 2021, questionnaires were available for 142 857 infants; data was missing for 2.7%. IM Vitamin K uptake was high: 95.5% of carers consented, with 1.1% requesting oral vitamin K and 0.9% refusing vitamin K altogether. Infant ethnicity, use of English as a first language, socio-economic status and maternal age were not associated with reduced uptake of IM vitamin K.

CONCLUSION

If IM Vitamin K administration is a valid proxy measure for nirsevimab acceptance, we did not identify groups that might require increased engagement prior to nirsevimab roll-out.

The clinical impact of serious respiratory disease in children under the age of two years during the 2021-2022 bronchiolitis season in England, Scotland and Ireland

BACKGROUND

Interventions introduced to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 led to a widespread reduction in childhood infections. However, from spring 2021 onwards the United Kingdom and Ireland experienced an unusual out-of-season epidemic of respiratory disease.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational study (BronchStart), enrolling children 0-23 months of age presenting with bronchiolitis, lower respiratory tract infection or first episode of wheeze to 59 Emergency Departments across England, Scotland and Ireland from May 2021 to April 2022. We combined testing data with national admissions datasets to infer the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease.

RESULTS

The BronchStart study collected data on 17,899 presentations for 17,164 children. Risk factors for admission and escalation of care included prematurity and congenital heart disease, but most admissions were for previously healthy term-born children. Of those aged 0-11 months who were admitted and tested for RSV, 1,907/3,912 (48.7%) tested positive. We estimate that every year in England and Scotland 28,561 (95% confidence interval 27,637-29,486) infants are admitted with RSV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

RSV infection was the main cause of hospitalisations in this cohort, but 51.3% of admissions in infants were not associated with the virus. The majority of admissions were in previously healthy term-born infants.

Using administrative data to evaluate national policy impacts on child and maternal health: a research framework from the Maternal and Child Health Network (MatCHNet)

Reducing health inequalities by addressing the social circumstances in which children are conceived and raised is a societal priority. Early interventions are key to improving outcomes in childhood and long-term into adulthood. Across the UK nations, there is strong political commitment to invest in the early years. National policy interventions aim to tackle health inequalities and deliver health equity for all children. Evidence to determine the effectiveness of socio-structural policies on child health outcomes is especially pressing given the current social and economic challenges facing policy-makers and families with children. As an alternative to clinical trials or evaluating local interventions, we propose a research framework that supports evaluating the impact of whole country policies on child health outcomes. Three key research challenges must be addressed to enable such evaluations and improve policy for child health: (1) policy prioritisation, (2) identification of comparable data and (3) application of robust methods.

Vaccine effectiveness for prevention of covid-19 related hospital admission during pregnancy in England during the alpha and delta variant dominant periods of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: population based cohort study

Objective

To estimate vaccine effectiveness for preventing covid-19 related hospital admission in individuals first infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus during pregnancy compared with those of reproductive age who were not pregnant when first infected with the virus.

Design

Population based cohort study.

Setting

Office for National Statistics Public Health Data Asset linked dataset, providing national linked census and administrative data in England, 8 December 2020 to 31 August 2021.

Participants

815 477 females aged 18-45 years (mean age 30.4 years) who had documented evidence of a first SARS-CoV-2 infection in the NHS Test and Trace or Hospital Episode Statistics data.

Main outcome measures

Hospital admission where covid-19 was recorded as the primary diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for calendar time of infection, sociodemographic factors, and pre-existing health conditions related to uptake of the covid-19 vaccine and risk of severe covid-19 outcomes, were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness as the complement of the hazard ratio for hospital admission for covid-19.

Results

Compared with pregnant individuals who were not vaccinated, the adjusted rate of hospital admission for covid-19 was 77% (95% confidence interval 70% to 82%) lower for pregnant individuals who had received one dose and 83% (76% to 89%) lower for those who had received two doses of vaccine. These estimates were similar to those found in the non-pregnant group: 79% (77% to 81%) for one dose and 83% (82% to 85%) for two doses of vaccine. Among those who were vaccinated >90 days before infection, having two doses of vaccine was associated with a greater reduction in risk than one dose.

Conclusions

Covid-19 vaccination was associated with reduced rates of hospital admission in pregnant individuals infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the reduction in risk was similar to that in non-pregnant individuals. Waning of vaccine effectiveness occurred more quickly after one than after two doses of vaccine.

Identifying opportunities for upstream evaluations relevant to child and maternal health: a UK policy-mapping review

OBJECTIVE

Interventions to tackle the social determinants of health can improve outcomes during pregnancy and early childhood, leading to better health across the life course. Variation in content, timing and implementation of policies across the 4 UK nations allows for evaluation. We conducted a policy-mapping review (1981-2021) to identify relevant UK early years policies across the social determinants of health framework, and determine suitable candidates for evaluation using administrative data.

METHODS

We used open keyword and category searches of UK and devolved Government websites, and hand searched policy reviews. Policies were rated and included using five criteria: (1) Potential for policy to affect maternal and child health outcomes; (2) Implementation variation across the UK; (3) Population reach and expected effect size; (4) Ability to identify exposed/eligible group in administrative data; (5) Potential to affect health inequalities. An expert consensus workshop determined a final shortlist.

RESULTS

336 policies and 306 strategy documents were identified. Policies were mainly excluded due to criteria 2-4, leaving 88. The consensus workshop identified three policy areas as suitable candidates for natural experiment evaluation using administrative data: pregnancy grants, early years education and childcare, and Universal Credit.

CONCLUSION

Our comprehensive policy review identifies valuable opportunities to evaluate sociostructural impacts on mother and child outcomes. However, many potentially impactful policies were excluded. This may lead to the inverse evidence law, where there is least evidence for policies believed to be most effective. This could be ameliorated by better access to administrative data, staged implementation of future policies or alternative evaluation methods.

Target Trial Emulation and Bias Through Missing Eligibility Data: An Application to a Study of Palivizumab for the Prevention of Hospitalization Due to Infant Respiratory Illness

Target trial emulation (TTE) applies the principles of randomized controlled trials to the causal analysis of observational data sets. One challenge that is rarely considered in TTE is the sources of bias that may arise if the variables involved in the definition of eligibility for the trial are missing. We highlight patterns of bias that might arise when estimating the causal effect of a point exposure when restricting the target trial to individuals with complete eligibility data. Simulations consider realistic scenarios where the variables affecting eligibility modify the causal effect of the exposure and are missing at random or missing not at random. We discuss means to address these patterns of bias, namely: 1) controlling for the collider bias induced by the missing data on eligibility, and 2) imputing the missing values of the eligibility variables prior to selection into the target trial. Results are compared with the results when TTE is performed ignoring the impact of missing eligibility. A study of palivizumab, a monoclonal antibody recommended for the prevention of respiratory hospital admissions due to respiratory syncytial virus in high-risk infants, is used for illustration.

Tracking Changes in Mobility Before and After the First SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Using Global Positioning System Data in England and Wales (Virus Watch): Prospective Observational Community Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that individuals may change adherence to public health policies aimed at reducing the contact, transmission, and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus after they receive their first SARS-CoV-2 vaccination when they are not fully vaccinated.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to estimate changes in median daily travel distance of our cohort from their registered addresses before and after receiving a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

METHODS

Participants were recruited into Virus Watch starting in June 2020. Weekly surveys were sent out to participants, and vaccination status was collected from January 2021 onward. Between September 2020 and February 2021, we invited 13,120 adult Virus Watch participants to contribute toward our tracker subcohort, which uses the GPS via a smartphone app to collect data on movement. We used segmented linear regression to estimate the median daily travel distance before and after the first self-reported SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose.

RESULTS

We analyzed the daily travel distance of 249 vaccinated adults. From 157 days prior to vaccination until the day before vaccination, the median daily travel distance was 9.05 (IQR 8.06-10.09) km. From the day of vaccination to 105 days after vaccination, the median daily travel distance was 10.08 (IQR 8.60-12.42) km. From 157 days prior to vaccination until the vaccination date, there was a daily median decrease in mobility of 40.09 m (95% CI -50.08 to -31.10; P<.001). After vaccination, there was a median daily increase in movement of 60.60 m (95% CI 20.90-100; P<.001). Restricting the analysis to the third national lockdown (January 4, 2021, to April 5, 2021), we found a median daily movement increase of 18.30 m (95% CI -19.20 to 55.80; P=.57) in the 30 days prior to vaccination and a median daily movement increase of 9.36 m (95% CI 38.6-149.00; P=.69) in the 30 days after vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates the feasibility of collecting high-volume geolocation data as part of research projects and the utility of these data for understanding public health issues. Our various analyses produced results that ranged from no change in movement after vaccination (during the third national lock down) to an increase in movement after vaccination (considering all periods, up to 105 days after vaccination), suggesting that, among Virus Watch participants, any changes in movement distances after vaccination are small. Our findings may be attributable to public health measures in place at the time such as movement restrictions and home working that applied to the Virus Watch cohort participants during the study period.

Trends in hospital admissions during transition from paediatric to adult services for young people with learning disabilities or autism: Population-based cohort study

Background

Transition from paediatric to adult health care may disrupt continuity of care, and result in unmet health needs. We describe changes in planned and unplanned hospital admission rates before, during and after transition for young people with learning disability (LD), or autism spectrum disorders (ASD) indicated in hospital records, who are likely to have more complex health needs.

Methods

We developed two mutually exclusive cohorts of young people with LD, and with ASD without LD, born between 1990 and 2001 in England using national hospital admission data. We determined the annual rate of change in planned and unplanned hospital admission rates before (age 10–15 years), during (16–18 years) and after (19–24 years) transition to adult care using multilevel negative binomial regression models, accounting for area-level deprivation, sex, birth year and presence of comorbidities.

Findings

The cohorts included 51,291 young people with LD, and 46,270 autistic young people. Admission rates at ages 10–24 years old were higher for young people with LD (54 planned and 25 unplanned admissions per 100 person-years) than for autistic young people (17/100 and 16/100, respectively). For young people with LD, planned admission rates were highest and constant before transition (rate ratio [RR]: 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.98–0.99), declined by 14% per year of age during (RR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.85–0.88), and remained constant after transition (RR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.99–1.00), mainly due to fewer admissions for non-surgical care, including respite care. Unplanned admission rates increased by 3% per year of age before (RR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02–1.03), remained constant during (RR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00–1.03) and increased by 3% per year after transition (RR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02–1.04). For autistic young people, planned admission rates increased before (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.05–1.06), decreased during (RR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93–0.97), and increased after transition (RR: 1.05, 95%: 1.04–1.07). Unplanned admission rates increased most rapidly before (RR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.15–1.17), remained constant during (RR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99–1.03), and increased moderately after transition (RR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02–1.04).

Interpretation

Decreases in planned admission rates during transition were paralleled by small but consistent increases in unplanned admission rates with age for young people with LD and autistic young people. Decreases in non-surgical planned care during transition could reflect disruptions to continuity of planned/respite care or a shift towards provision of healthcare in primary care and community settings and non-hospital arrangements for respite care.

Funding

National Institute for Health Research Policy Research Programme.

Socioeconomic position, bronchiolitis and asthma in children: counterfactual disparity measures from a national birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

The debated link between severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in early life and asthma has yet to be investigated within a social inequity lens. We estimated the magnitude of socioeconomic disparity in childhood asthma which would remain if no child were admitted to hospital for bronchiolitis, commonly due to RSV, during infancy.

METHODS

The cohort, constructed from national administrative health datasets, comprised 83853 children born in Scotland between 1 January 2007 and 31 June 2008. Scottish Index for Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) was used to capture socioeconomic position. Emergency admissions for bronchiolitis before age 1 year were identified from hospital records. Yearly indicators of asthma/wheeze from ages 2 to 9 years were created using dispensing data and hospital admission records.

RESULTS

Using latent class growth analysis, we identified four trajectories of asthma/wheeze: early-transient (2.2% of the cohort), early-persistent (2.0%), intermediate-onset (1.8%) and no asthma/wheeze (94.0%). The estimated marginal risks of chronic asthma (combining early-persistent and intermediate-onset groups) varied by SIMD, with risk differences for the medium and high deprivation groups, relative to the low deprivation group, of 7.0% (95% confidence interval: 3.7-10.3) and 13.0% (9.6-16.4), respectively. Using counterfactual disparity measures, we estimated that the elimination of bronchiolitis requiring hospital admission could reduce these risk differences by 21.2% (4.9-37.5) and 17.9% (10.4-25.4), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of disparity in chronic asthma prevalence by deprivation level remains unexplained. Our paper offers a guide to using causal inference methods to study other plausible pathways to inequities in asthma using complex, linked administrative data.

Linking fathers and children in administrative data for public health research: A systematic scoping review

ObjectivesThe evidence-base for inter-related paternal and child health trajectories is not supported by linked, routinely collected administrative data in England. We conducted a scoping review to identify methods used globally for linking fathers and children in administrative data for public health research and map these methods onto dimensions of fatherhood. ApproachWe searched PubMed, Scopus and Google/Google Scholar for articles published 2000-2020 from OECD countries that link fathers’ and children’s records in administrative data. Search terms included for example: “father” and “administrative data” or “record linkage”. The exposures of interest were any demographic, health, or other characteristics of fathers during their offspring's childhood or prior to birth captured within administrative data. We included studies where paternal information came from fathers' linked records and if outcomes were related to child health and development (e.g. educational attainment, behavioural outcomes, hospital admissions) measured before 18 years of age. ResultsWe identified 77 studies that quantified the association between paternal exposures and child health and development outcomes, using linked administrative data on fathers and their children. Four methods have been used globally to link fathers and children across vital statistics, health, social care, education, and criminal justice records. These methods are based on personal identity numbers (PINs), address or household identifiers, information from birth registrations, or health claims. We mapped what we can learn from these different linkages to dimensions of fatherhood identified through a conceptual framework. For example, for the linkage method based on address/household identifiers, co-residency may be used as a proxy for all dimensions of paternal involvement. However, substantial assumptions are needed when using linkage methods as proxies for paternal involvement. ConclusionIn many settings, changes in practice (such as recording fathers’ National Health Service numbers on hospital birth notifications in England) are required to facilitate linkage of father-child health data at the population level. This would help advance fatherhood research and enable targeted service offers to new fathers.

SARS-CoV-2 tests, confirmed infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions in children and young people: birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

There have been no population-based studies of SARS-CoV-2 testing, PCR-confirmed infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions across the full paediatric age range. We examine the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in children and young people (CYP) aged <23 years.

METHODS

We used a birth cohort of all children born in Scotland since 1997, constructed via linkage between vital statistics, hospital records and SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data. We calculated risks of tests and PCR-confirmed infections per 1000 CYP-years between August and December 2020, and COVID-19-related hospital admissions per 100 000 CYP-years between February and December 2020. We used Poisson and Cox proportional hazards regression models to determine risk factors.

RESULTS

Among the 1 226 855 CYP in the cohort, there were 378 402 tests (a rate of 770.8/1000 CYP-years (95% CI 768.4 to 773.3)), 19 005 PCR-confirmed infections (179.4/1000 CYP-years (176.9 to 182.0)) and 346 admissions (29.4/100 000 CYP-years (26.3 to 32.8)). Infants had the highest COVID-19-related admission rates. The presence of chronic conditions, particularly multiple types of conditions, was strongly associated with COVID-19-related admissions across all ages. Overall, 49% of admitted CYP had at least one chronic condition recorded.

CONCLUSIONS

Infants and CYP with chronic conditions are at highest risk of admission with COVID-19. Half of admitted CYP had chronic conditions. Studies examining COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among children with chronic conditions and whether maternal vaccine during pregnancy prevents COVID-19 admissions in infants are urgently needed.

Determinants of accident and emergency attendances and emergency admissions in infants: birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is limited understanding of the drivers of increasing infant accident and emergency (A&E) attendances and emergency hospital admissions across England. We examine variations in use of emergency hospital services among infants by local areas in England and investigate the extent to which infant and socio-economic factors explain these variations.

METHODS

Birth cohort study using linked administrative Hospital Episode Statistics data in England. Singleton live births between 1-April-2012 and 31-March-2019 were followed up for 1 year; from 1-April-2013 (from the discharge date of their birth admission) until their first birthday, death or 31-March-2019. Mixed effects negative binomial models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios for A&E attendances and emergency admissions and mixed effects logistic regression models estimated odds ratio of conversion (the proportion of infants subsequently admitted after attending A&E). Models were adjusted for individual-level factors and included a random effect for local authority (LA).

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 3,665,414 births in 150 English LAs. Rates of A&E attendances and emergency admissions were highest amongst: infants born < 32 weeks gestation; with presence of congenital anomaly; and to mothers < 20-years-old. Area-level deprivation was positively associated with A&E attendance rates, but not associated with conversion probability. A&E attendance rates were highest in the North East (916 per 1000 child-years, 95%CI: 911 to 921) and London (876 per 1000, 95%CI: 874 to 879), yet London had the lowest emergency admission rates (232 per 1000, 95%CI: 231 to 234) and conversion probability (25% vs 39% in South West). Adjusting for individual-level factors did not significantly affect variability in A&E attendance and emergency admission rates by local authority.

CONCLUSIONS

Drivers of A&E attendances and emergency admissions include individual-level factors such being born premature, with congenital anomaly and from socio-economically disadvantaged young parent families. Support for such vulnerable infants and families should be provided alongside preventative health care in primary and community care settings. The impact of these services requires further investigation. Substantial geographical variations in rates were not explained by individual-level factors. This suggests more detailed understanding of local and underlying service-level factors would provide targets for further research on mechanisms and policy priority.

Description and evaluation of a pathway for unaccompanied asylum-seeking children

OBJECTIVE

(1) To describe a novel integrated pathway for unaccompanied asylum-seeking children (UASC).(2) To evaluate a population engaged with this service.

DESIGN

Description of the integrated pathway (objective 1) and retrospective evaluation, using data from community paediatrics, infectious diseases (IDs) screening and a sexual health (SH) service (objective 2).

SETTING

Unlinked data were collected from three services across three National Health Service (NHS) trusts in London.

PATIENTS

All Camden UASC engaged with the service from 01 January 2016 to 30 March 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

A multidisciplinary approach prioritising the health needs of UASC including a childre and adolescent mental health service (CAMHS) clinican and a health improvement practitioner. There are low thresholds for onward referral and universal asymptomatic screening of UASC for ID.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Data on demographics, unmet health needs and known outcomes.

RESULTS

Data were available for 101 UASC, 16% female, median age 16 years (range 14-17). Physical assault/abuse was reported in 67% and 13% disclosed sexual assault/abuse, including 38% of female UASC. Mental health symptoms were documented in 77%. IDs warranting treatment were identified in 41% including latent tuberculosis (25%) and schistosomiasis (13%). Interpreters were required for 97% and initial non-attendance rates at follow-up were 40% (ID) and 49% (SH).

CONCLUSIONS

These data demonstrate high rates of historical physical and sexual assault/abuse, unmet physical, mental and emotional health needs among UASC and significant barriers to engaging with services. An integrated pathway has been successfully implemented and shown to deliver appropriate, joined-up care for UASC, consistent with current recommendations, with the potential to improve outcomes.

Factors predicting amoxicillin prescribing in primary care among children: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic prescribing during childhood, most commonly for respiratory tract infections (RTIs), contributes to antimicrobial resistance, which is a major public health concern.

AIM

To identify factors associated with amoxicillin prescribing and RTI consultation attendance in young children in primary care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cohort study in Bradford spanning pregnancy to age 24 months, collected 2007-2013, linked to electronic primary care and air pollution data.

METHOD

Amoxicillin prescribing and RTI consultation rates/1000 child-years were calculated. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were fitted with general practice (GP) surgery as the random effect.

RESULTS

The amoxicillin prescribing rate among 2493 children was 710/1000 child-years during year 1 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 677 to 744) and 780/1000 (95% CI = 745 to 816) during year 2. During year 1, odds of amoxicillin prescribing were higher for boys (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.36, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.61), infants from socioeconomically deprived households (aOR 1.36, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.86), and infants with a Pakistani ethnic background (with mothers born in the UK [aOR 1.44, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.94] and outside [aOR 1.42, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.90]). During year 2, odds of amoxicillin prescribing were higher for infants with a Pakistani ethnic background (with mothers born in the UK [aOR 1.46, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.94] and outside [aOR 1.56, 95% CI = 1.19 to 2.04]) and those born <39 weeks gestation (aOR 1.20, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.45). Additional risk factors included caesarean delivery, congenital anomalies, overcrowding, birth season, and childcare attendance, with GP surgery explaining 7%-9% of variation.

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic status and ethnic background were associated with amoxicillin prescribing during childhood. Efforts to reduce RTI spread in household and childcare settings may reduce antibiotic prescribing in primary care.

Symptom profiles and accuracy of clinical case definitions for COVID-19 in a community cohort: results from the Virus Watch study

Background: Understanding symptomatology and accuracy of clinical case definitions for community COVID-19 cases is important for Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) and future targeting of early antiviral treatment.   Methods: Community cohort participants prospectively recorded daily symptoms and swab results (mainly undertaken through the UK TTI system).  We compared symptom frequency, severity, timing, and duration in test positive and negative illnesses.  We compared the test performance of the current UK TTI case definition (cough, high temperature, or loss of or altered sense of smell or taste) with a wider definition adding muscle aches, chills, headache, or loss of appetite.     Results: Among 9706 swabbed illnesses, including 973 SARS-CoV-2 positives, symptoms were more common, severe and longer lasting in swab positive than negative illnesses.  Cough, headache, fatigue, and muscle aches were the most common symptoms in positive illnesses but also common in negative illnesses. Conversely, high temperature, loss or altered sense of smell or taste and loss of appetite were less frequent in positive illnesses, but comparatively even less frequent in negative illnesses.  The current UK definition had 81% sensitivity and 47% specificity versus 93% and 27% respectively for the broader definition. 1.7-fold more illnesses met the broader case definition than the current definition.  Conclusions: Symptoms alone cannot reliably distinguish COVID-19 from other respiratory illnesses. Adding additional symptoms to case definitions could identify more infections, but with a large increase in the number needing testing and the number of unwell individuals and contacts self-isolating whilst awaiting results.

Establishing risk factors and outcomes for congenital hypothyroidism with gland in situ using population-based data linkage methods: study protocol

INTRODUCTION

There has been an increase in the birth prevalence of congenital hypothyroidism (CH) since the introduction of newborn screening, both globally and in the UK. This increase can be accounted for by an increase in CH with gland in situ (CH-GIS). It is not known why CH-GIS is becoming more common, nor how it affects the health, development and learning of children over the long term. Our study will use linked administrative health, education and clinical data to determine risk factors for CH-GIS and describe long-term health and education outcomes for affected children.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will construct a birth cohort study based on linked, administrative data to determine what factors have contributed to the increase in the birth prevalence of CH-GIS in the UK. We will also set up a follow-up study of cases and controls to determine the health and education outcomes of children with and without CH-GIS. We will use logistic/multinomial regression models to establish risk factors for CH-GIS. Changes in the prevalence of risk factors over time will help to explain the increase in birth prevalence of CH-GIS. Multivariable generalised linear models or Cox proportional hazards regression models will be used to assess the association between type of CH and school performance or health outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the London Queen Square Research Ethics Committee and the Health Research Authority's Confidentiality Advisory Group CAG. Approvals are also being sought from each data provider. Obtaining approvals from CAG, data providers and information governance bodies have caused considerable delays to the project. Our methods and findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at academic conferences.

Trends, patterns and psychological influences on COVID-19 vaccination intention: Findings from a large prospective community cohort study in England and Wales (Virus Watch)

BACKGROUND

Vaccination intention is key to the success of any vaccination programme, alongside vaccine availability and access. Public intention to take a COVID-19 vaccine is high in England and Wales compared to other countries, but vaccination rate disparities between ethnic, social and age groups has led to concern.

METHODS

Online survey of prospective household community cohort study participants across England and Wales (Virus Watch). Vaccination intention was measured by individual participant responses to 'Would you accept a COVID-19 vaccine if offered?', collected in December 2020 and February 2021. Responses to a 13-item questionnaire collected in January 2021 were analysed using factor analysis to investigate psychological influences on vaccination intention.

RESULTS

Survey response rate was 56% (20,785/36,998) in December 2020 and 53% (20,590/38,727) in February 2021, with 14,880 adults reporting across both time points. In December 2020, 1,469 (10%) participants responded 'No' or 'Unsure'. Of these people, 1,266 (86%) changed their mind and responded 'Yes' or 'Already had a COVID-19 vaccine' by February 2021. Vaccination intention increased across all ethnic groups and levels of social deprivation. Age was most strongly associated with vaccination intention, with 16-24-year-olds more likely to respond "Unsure" or "No" versus "Yes" than 65-74-year-olds in December 2020 (OR: 4.63, 95 %CI: 3.42, 6.27 & OR 7.17 95 %CI: 4.26, 12.07 respectively) and February 2021 (OR: 27.92 95 %CI: 13.79, 56.51 & OR 17.16 95 %CI: 4.12, 71.55). The association between ethnicity and vaccination intention weakened, but did not disappear, over time. Both vaccine- and illness-related psychological factors were shown to influence vaccination intention.

CONCLUSIONS

Four in five adults (86%) who were reluctant or intending to refuse a COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020 had changed their mind in February 2021 and planned to accept, or had already accepted, a vaccine.

Hospital admissions for stress-related presentations among school-aged adolescents during term time versus holidays in England: weekly time series and retrospective cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

Schools are a potential stressor for adolescents and may contribute to emergency hospital admissions.

AIMS

We describe rates of stress-related presentations (SRPs) among school-aged adolescents (11-17 years) during school terms and holidays, and explore differences by age and gender.

METHOD

Using national administrative hospital data, we defined an SRP as an emergency hospital admission with a primary diagnosis related to pain, psychosomatic symptoms (e.g. fatigue) or mental health problems, or with self-harm indicated in any diagnostic position. We estimated incidence rate ratios for weekly SRPs in term time versus holidays from 2014-2015 to 2017-2018, using negative binomial regression models, stratified by age and gender. We estimated the cumulative incidence of any SRP between 11 and 17 years by analysing prior hospital admission histories of adolescents with an SRP in 2017-2018.

RESULTS

Over the 4-year study period, 305 491 SRPs in 171 013 school-aged adolescents accounted for 31% of emergency admissions for this group. SRPs were predominantly for mental health problems or self-harm (38%), or pain (35%). Weekly admission rates for SRPs were higher in term time than holidays for all ages (age-specific incidence rate ratios were 1.15-1.49 for girls and 1.08-1.60 for boys). Rates were highest for girls aged 14 and 15 years. The estimated cumulative incidence of any SRP between 11 and 17 years was 7.9% for girls and 4.1% for boys.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital admissions for SRPs are common among adolescents, affecting around two girls and one boy in every classroom. Higher rates in term time than holidays suggest that school factors may contribute.

Deprivation and exposure to public activities during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales

Background

Differential exposure to public activities may contribute to stark deprivation-related inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes but has not been directly investigated. We set out to investigate whether participants in Virus Watch—a large community cohort study based in England and Wales—reported differential exposure to public activities and non-household contacts during the autumn–winter phase of the COVID-19 pandemic according to postcode-level socioeconomic deprivation.

Methods

Participants (n=20 120–25 228 across surveys) reported their daily activities during 3 weekly periods in late November 2020, late December 2020 and mid-February 2021. Deprivation was quantified based on participants’ residential postcode using English or Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles. We used Poisson mixed-effect models with robust standard errors to estimate the relationship between deprivation and risk of exposure to public activities during each survey period.

Results

Relative to participants in the least deprived areas, participants in the most deprived areas exhibited elevated risk of exposure to vehicle sharing (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) range across time points: 1.73–8.52), public transport (aRR: 3.13–5.73), work or education outside of the household (aRR: 1.09–1.21), essential shops (aRR: 1.09–1.13) and non-household contacts (aRR: 1.15–1.19) across multiple survey periods.

Conclusion

Differential exposure to essential public activities—such as attending workplaces and visiting essential shops—is likely to contribute to inequalities in infection risk and outcomes. Public health interventions to reduce exposure during essential activities and financial and practical support to enable low-paid workers to stay at home during periods of intense transmission may reduce COVID-related inequalities.

Are infant mortality rates increasing in England? The effect of extreme prematurity and early neonatal deaths

BACKGROUND

Infant mortality has been rising in England since 2014. We examined potential drivers of these trends.

METHODS

We used aggregate data on all live births, stillbirths and linked infant deaths in England in 2006-2016 from the Office for National Statistics. We compared trends in infant mortality rates overall, excluding births at <24 weeks of gestation, by quintile of SES and gestational age.

RESULTS

Infant mortality decreased from 4.78 deaths/1000 live births in 2006 to 3.54/1000 in 2014 (annual decrease of 0.15/1000) and increased to 3.67/1000 in 2016 (annual increase of 0.07/1000). This rise was driven by increases in deaths at 0-6 days of life. After excluding infants born at <24 weeks of gestation, infant mortality continued to decrease after 2014. The risk of infant death was 94% higher in the most versus least deprived SES quintile, which reduced to a 55% higher risk after adjusting for gestational age.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed increase in infant mortality rates since 2014 is wholly explained by an increasing number of deaths at 0-6 days of age among babies born at <24 weeks of gestation. Policies focused on improving maternal health to reduce preterm birth could substantially reduce the socio-economic gap in infant survival.

Access to palivizumab among children at high risk of respiratory syncytial virus complications in English hospitals

AIMS

Palivizumab is a monoclonal antibody which can prevent infection with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Due to its high cost, it is recommended for high-risk infants only. We aimed to determine the proportion of infants eligible for palivizumab treatment in England who receive at least one dose.

METHODS

We used the Hospital Treatment Insights database, which contains hospital admission records linked to hospital pharmacy dispensing data for 43 out of 153 hospitals in England. Infants born between 2010 and 2016 were considered eligible for palivizumab if their medical records indicated chronic lung disease (CLD), congenital heart disease (CHD) or severe immunodeficiency (SCID), and they met additional criteria based on gestational age at birth and age at start of the RSV season (beginning of October). We calculated the proportion of infants who received at least one dose of palivizumab in their first RSV season, and modelled the odds of treatment according to multiple child characteristics using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We identified 3712 eligible children, of whom 2479 (67%) had complete information on all risk factors. Palivizumab was prescribed to 832 of eligible children (34%). Being born at <30 weeks' gestation, aged <6 months at the start of RSV season, and having two or more of CLD, CHD or SCID were associated with higher odds of treatment.

CONCLUSION

In England, palivizumab is not prescribed to the majority of children who are eligible to receive it. Doctors managing these infants may be unfamiliar with the eligibility criteria or constrained by other considerations, such as cost.

Age specific trends in mortality disparities by socio-economic deprivation in small geographical areas of England, 2002-2018: A retrospective registry study

BACKGROUND

Disparities in mortality rates according to socioeconomic position (SEP) have been rising in England. We describe the association between recent changes in socioeconomic inequality and trends in mortality disparities for different age and sex groups at small-area level in England.

METHODS

Vital registration data from the Office for National Statistics on resident population size and number of deaths in each Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) in England from 2002 to 2018 were stratified by sex and 5-year age group. We grouped LSOA into ventiles of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), our indicator of SEP. We examined time trends in smoothed mortality rates, using 3 year moving averages for the period 2003-2017, by age across the IMD distribution. We measured mortality inequalities using the ratio of mortality rates between different deprivation groups. We calculated mortality rate ratios between the most and the least deprived 10% of areas (Total Inequality) and between the median and least deprived (Lower Inequality) 10% of areas by year, gender and age group, to examine where in the distribution of deprivation trends in mortality inequality arose.

FINDINGS

Among <1 year olds, the inequality in mortality rates between the poorest 10% of LSOAs and the richest 10% of LSOAs fell between 2003 and 2017 by 22•7% for men and 22•8% for women. The largest inequalities were observed among 40 to 54 year olds. This inequality increased over the study period - from 3•2 times higher mortality rates for men in the most as opposed to the least deprived 10% of LSOAs in 2003 to 3•3 times in 2017. The rise was from 2•4 to 2•6 for women. Age groups ≥65 years, who experience the highest mortality risk, had low but rising inequality. Men and women aged 65 to 79 living in the most deprived LSOAs had a mortality rate 1•9 times higher than the least deprived in 2003 but this had increased to 2•2 times higher for women and 2•3 times higher for men by 2017. This was due to rising inequality in both halves of the distribution - between the top 10% of LSOA and the middle, and between the middle and the bottom 10% of LSOA.

INTERPRETATION

Overall mortality inequality rose in England but there were substantial differences in the trends for specific age and sex groups. Infant and child mortality inequality fell. At older ages, mortality inequality rose across cohorts, although in different ways, as each cohort's exposure to life-course to labour market inequality has differed. Policy goals of reducing mortality inequality will be best met by a focus on the risk factors that are specific to particular age and deprivation groups.

FUNDING

Economic and Social Research Council, through the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at the IFS. We gratefully acknowledge the support of the Nuffield Foundation, grant reference WEL/43603. The project has been funded by the Nuffield Foundation, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the Foundation. Visit www.nuffieldfoundation.org. Research at UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health is supported by the NIHR Great Ormond Street Hospital Biomedical Research Centre.

Challenges of using asthma admission rates as a measure of primary care quality in children: An international comparison

Objectives

To demonstrate the challenges of interpreting cross-country comparisons of paediatric asthma hospital admission rates as an indicator of primary care quality.

Methods

We used hospital administrative data from >10 million children aged 6–15 years, resident in Austria, England, Finland, Iceland, Ontario (Canada), Sweden or Victoria (Australia) between 2008 and 2015. Asthma hospital admission and emergency department (ED) attendance rates were compared between countries using Poisson regression models, adjusted for age and sex.

Results

Hospital admission rates for asthma per 1000 child-years varied eight-fold across jurisdictions. Admission rates were 3.5 times higher when admissions with asthma recorded as any diagnosis were considered, compared with admissions with asthma as the primary diagnosis. Iceland had the lowest asthma admission rates; however, when ED attendance rates were considered, Sweden had the lowest rate of asthma hospital contacts.

Conclusions

The large variations in childhood hospital admission rates for asthma based on the whole child population reflect differing definitions, admission thresholds and underlying disease prevalence rather than primary care quality. Asthma hospital admissions among children diagnosed with asthma is a more meaningful indicator for inter-country comparisons of primary care quality.

Risk factors, symptom reporting, healthcare-seeking behaviour and adherence to public health guidance: protocol for Virus Watch, a prospective community cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused significant global mortality and impacted lives around the world. Virus Watch aims to provide evidence on which public health approaches are most likely to be effective in reducing transmission and impact of the virus, and will investigate community incidence, symptom profiles and transmission of COVID-19 in relation to population movement and behaviours.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Virus Watch is a household community cohort study of acute respiratory infections in England and Wales and will run from June 2020 to August 2021. The study aims to recruit 50 000 people, including 12 500 from minority ethnic backgrounds, for an online survey cohort and monthly antibody testing using home fingerprick test kits. Nested within this larger study will be a subcohort of 10 000 individuals, including 3000 people from minority ethnic backgrounds. This cohort of 10 000 people will have full blood serology taken between October 2020 and January 2021 and repeat serology between May 2021 and August 2021. Participants will also post self-administered nasal swabs for PCR assays of SARS-CoV-2 and will follow one of three different PCR testing schedules based on symptoms.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the Hampstead National Health Service (NHS) Health Research Authority Ethics Committee (ethics approval number 20/HRA/2320). We are monitoring participant queries and using these to refine methodology where necessary, and are providing summaries and policy briefings of our preliminary findings to inform public health action by working through our partnerships with our study advisory group, Public Health England, NHS and government scientific advisory panels.

Community-Based Antibiotic Prescribing Attributable to Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Other Common Respiratory Viruses in Young Children: A Population-Based Time-series Study of Scottish Children

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, such as for viral illness, remains common in primary care. The objective of this study was to estimate the proportion of community-prescribed antibiotics to children aged less than 5 years attributable to common respiratory viruses.

METHODS

We fitted time-series negative binomial models to predict weekly antibiotic prescribing rates from positive viral pathogen tests for the period 1 April 2009 through 27 December 2017 using comprehensive, population-based administrative data for all children (<5 years) living in Scotland. Multiple respiratory viral pathogens were considered, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), rhinovirus, and human parainfluenza (HPIV) types 1-4. We estimated the proportion of antibiotic prescriptions explained by virus circulation according to type of virus, by age group, presence of high-risk chronic conditions, and antibiotic class.

RESULTS

We included data on 6 066 492 antibiotic prescriptions among 452 877 children. The antibiotic-prescribing rate among all Scottish children (<5 years) was 609.7 per 1000 child-years. Our final model included RSV, influenza, HMPV, HPIV-1, and HPIV-3. An estimated 6.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.6-8.3%), 2.4% (1.7-3.1%), and 2.3% (.8-3.9%) of antibiotics were attributable to RSV, influenza, and HMPV, respectively. RSV was consistently associated with the highest proportion of prescribed antibiotics, particularly among children without chronic conditions and for amoxicillin and macrolide prescriptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly 14% of antibiotics prescribed to children in this study were estimated to be attributable to common viruses for which antibiotics are not recommended. A future RSV vaccine could substantially reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing among children.

Health outcomes in international migrant children: protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Migration status is a key determinant of health, but health outcomes among migrant children and young people (CYP), that is, those aged under 18 years, are poorly understood. A 'healthy migrant' effect has been demonstrated among adults, but evidence for the same effect in CYP is lacking. No large studies or reviews exist reporting comprehensive or holistic health outcomes among migrant CYP. We aim to identify and synthesise original quantitative research on health of migrant CYP to explore the relations between migration status and health outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A search of PubMed/Medline, Embase, Cochrane and grey literature sites will be undertaken for any original quantitative research on health outcomes of migrant CYP from 01 January 2000 onwards. Outcomes addressed: mortality, communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, nutritional status, mental health, disability, vaccine coverage, and accidental and non-accidental injuries (including assault and abuse). Search results will be screened and presented in a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses flow diagram.The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale assessment tool will be used to assess study quality. If feasible, depending on study availability data heterogeneity (explored using I² statistic), results will be pooled for meta-analysis. If sufficient data are available, a priori defined subgroup analyses will be undertaken. A narrative quantitative synthesis will be presented, taking account of study quality and assessed risk of bias.The anticipated search completion date is 01 June 2021 with write-up completed by 01 April 2022.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Formal ethical approval will not be sought as we will be accessing data already in the public domain. This review will be submitted for publication in a high-impact journal and presented at international conferences. The results of this work will be shared with groups of migrant children as part of an ongoing engagement project.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020166305.

Air Pollution, housing and respirfatory tract Infections in Children: NatIonal birth Cohort study (PICNIC): study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are the most common reason for hospital admission among children <5 years in the UK. The relative contribution of ambient air pollution exposure and adverse housing conditions to RTI admissions in young children is unclear and has not been assessed in a UK context.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The aim of the PICNIC study (Air Pollution, housing and respiratory tract Infections in Children: NatIonal birth Cohort Study) is to quantify the extent to which in-utero, infant and childhood exposures to ambient air pollution and adverse housing conditions are associated with risk of RTI admissions in children <5 years old. We will use national administrative data birth cohorts, including data from all children born in England in 2005-2014 and in Scotland in 1997-2020, created via linkage between civil registration, maternity and hospital admission data sets. We will further enhance these cohorts via linkage to census data on housing conditions and socioeconomic position and small area-level data on ambient air pollution and building characteristics. We will use time-to-event analyses to examine the association between air pollution, housing characteristics and the risk of RTI admissions in children, calculate population attributable fractions for ambient air pollution and housing characteristics, and use causal mediation analyses to explore the mechanisms through which housing and air pollution influence the risk of infant RTI admission.

ETHICS, EXPECTED IMPACT AND DISSEMINATION

To date, we have obtained approval from six ethics and information governance committees in England and two in Scotland. Our results will inform parents, national and local governments, the National Health Service and voluntary sector organisations of the relative contribution of adverse housing conditions and air pollution to RTI admissions in young children. We will publish our results in open-access journals and present our results to the public via parent groups and social media and on the PICNIC website. Code and metadata will be published on GitHub.

Respiratory syncytial virus in young children: community cohort study integrating serological surveys, questionnaire and electronic health records, Born in Bradford cohort, England, 2008 to 2013

Background

Bronchiolitis caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in infants.

Aim

To describe RSV epidemiology in children in the community in a high-income setting.

Methods

We used stored blood samples from the United Kingdom Born in Bradford cohort study that had been collected at birth, age 1 and 2 years old, tested for IgG RSV postfusion F antibody and linked to questionnaires and primary and hospital care records. We used finite mixture models to classify children as RSV infected/not infected according to their antibody concentrations at age 1 and 2 years. We assessed risk factors for primary RSV infection at each age using Poisson regression models.

Results

The study cohort included 700 children with cord blood samples; 490 had additional blood samples taken at both ages 1 and 2 years old. Of these 490 children, 258 (53%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 48–57%) were first infected with RSV at age 1, 99 of whom (38%; 95% CI: 33–43%) had been in contact with healthcare during peak RSV season (November–January). Having older siblings, birth in October–June and attending formal childcare were associated with risk of RSV infection in infancy. By age 2, a further 164 of 490 children (33%; 95% CI: 29–38%) had been infected.

Conclusion

Over half of children experienced RSV infection in infancy, a further one third had evidence of primary RSV infection by age 2, and one in seven remained seronegative by their second birthday. These findings will inform future analyses to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSV vaccination programmes in high-income settings.

Health outcomes, healthcare use and development in children born into or growing up in single-parent households: a systematic review study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Up to a quarter of all children globally live in single-parent households. Studies have concluded that children who grow up with continuously married parents have better health outcomes than children who grow up with single or separated parents. This is consistent for key health and development outcomes including physical health, psychological well-being and educational attainment. Possible explanations include higher poverty and time limitations of parental engagement within single-parent families, but these only represent a narrow range of mechanisms. We aim to identify and synthesise the evidence on how being born into and/or living in a single-parent household compared with living in a two-parent household as a child impacts health and development outcomes, healthcare use and factors that may be driving differences.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will search PubMed, Scopus and ERIC and adapt our search terms for search engines and grey literature sites to include relevant conference abstracts and grey literature. We will restrict results to English language publications from 2000 to 2020 and screen against inclusion criteria. We will categorise main outcomes into five groups of outcomes: birth outcomes, mortality, physical health, mental health and development, and healthcare use. We will use the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the methodological quality of studies. Narrative synthesis will form the primary analysis in the review. Synthesis of effect estimates without meta-analysis will follow the Synthesis Without Meta-analysis guidelines.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All documents used are publicly accessible. We will submit results to a peer-reviewed journal and international social science conferences. We will communicate results with single-parent groups and relevant charitable organisations. This review will also be included in IL's PhD thesis.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020197890.

Developing a national birth cohort for child health research using a hospital admissions database in England: The impact of changes to data collection practices

BACKGROUND

National birth cohorts derived from administrative health databases constitute unique resources for child health research due to whole country coverage, ongoing follow-up and linkage to other data sources. In England, a national birth cohort can be developed using Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), an administrative database covering details of all publicly funded hospital activity, including 97% of births, with longitudinal follow-up via linkage to hospital and mortality records. We present methods for developing a national birth cohort using HES and assess the impact of changes to data collection over time on coverage and completeness of linked follow-up records for children.

METHODS

We developed a national cohort of singleton live births in 1998-2015, with information on key risk factors at birth (birth weight, gestational age, maternal age, ethnicity, area-level deprivation). We identified three changes to data collection, which could affect linkage of births to follow-up records: (1) the introduction of the "NHS Numbers for Babies (NN4B)", an on-line system which enabled maternity staff to request a unique healthcare patient identifier (NHS number) immediately at birth rather than at civil registration, in Q4 2002; (2) the introduction of additional data quality checks at civil registration in Q3 2009; and (3) correcting a postcode extraction error for births by the data provider in Q2 2013. We evaluated the impact of these changes on trends in two outcomes in infancy: hospital readmissions after birth (using interrupted time series analyses) and mortality rates (compared to published national statistics).

RESULTS

The cohort covered 10,653,998 babies, accounting for 96% of singleton live births in England in 1998-2015. Overall, 2,077,929 infants (19.5%) had at least one hospital readmission after birth. Readmission rates declined by 0.2% percentage points per annual quarter in Q1 1998 to Q3 2002, shifted up by 6.1% percentage points (compared to the expected value based on the trend before Q4 2002) to 17.7% in Q4 2002 when NN4B was introduced, and increased by 0.1% percentage points per annual quarter thereafter. Infant mortality rates were under-reported by 16% for births in 1998-2002 and similar to published national mortality statistics for births in 2003-2015. The trends in infant readmission were not affected by changes to data collection practices in Q3 2009 and Q2 2013, but the proportion of unlinked mortality records in HES and in ONS further declined after 2009.

DISCUSSION

HES can be used to develop a national birth cohort for child health research with follow-up via linkage to hospital and mortality records for children born from 2003 onwards. Re-linking births before 2003 to their follow-up records would maximise potential benefits of this rich resource, enabling studies of outcomes in adolescents with over 20 years of follow-up.

Estimating the Proportion of Antibiotics Attributable to Common Paediatric Respiratory Viruses: An Example Leveraging Unique Population-Based Prescribing and Laboratory Data

IntroductionInappropriate antibiotic prescribing, such as that for viral illness, is common in primary care. This is of growing interest given concerns around antimicrobial resistance and harms associated with unnecessary treatment; however, current data limitations have hindered population-based estimates of the proportion of community-prescribed antibiotics attributable to common respiratory viruses. Objectives and ApproachTo estimate the proportion of antibiotics prescribed in primary care to young children attributable to common respiratory viruses, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, human metapneumovirus (HuMPV) and parainfluenza. We leveraged two unique sources of comprehensive, linked population-based administrative data on dispensed antibiotic prescriptions and laboratory tests for respiratory viruses for all Scottish children (<5 years). We fit time series negative binomial models to predict weekly antibiotic prescribing rates from positive viral tests rates for the period April 1, 2009 through Dec 27, 2017. Using linked demographic and hospitalization data, we stratified our analysis by age, presence of high-risk chronic medical conditions, and antibiotic class. ResultsWe included data on over 6 million antibiotic prescriptions among nearly 800,000 children. An estimated 6.9% (95% CI: 5.6,8.3), 2.4% (1.7,3.1), and 2.3% (0.8,3.9) of prescribed antibiotics were attributable to RSV, influenza and HuMPV, respectively. RSV was consistently associated with the highest proportion of antibiotics prescribed across all analyses but particularly among children without chronic conditions [4.30% (3.19, 5.41)] and for amoxicillin [8.10% (6.43, 9.76)] and macrolide prescriptions [7.65% (6.14, 9.16)]. Conclusion / ImplicationsNearly 14% of antibiotics prescribed to Scottish children in this study were attributable to common viral pathogens such as RSV for which antibiotics are not recommended. This highlights clear targets for antibiotic stewardship programs and suggests antibiotic prescribing could be reduced once an RSV vaccine is introduced.

Emergency paediatric critical care in England: describing trends using routine hospital data

OBJECTIVE

To determine trends in emergency admission rates requiring different levels of critical care in hospitals with and without a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

DESIGN

Birth cohort study created from Hospital Episode Statistics.

SETTING

National Health Service funded hospitals in England.

PATIENTS

8 577 680 singleton children born between 1 May 2003 and 31 April 2017.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Using procedure and diagnostic codes, we assigned indicators of high dependency care (eg, non-invasive ventilation) or intensive care (eg, invasive ventilation) to emergency admissions.

INTERVENTIONS

Children were followed up until their fifth birthday to estimate high dependency and intensive care admission rates in hospitals with and without a PICU. We tested the yearly trend of high dependency and intensive care admissions to hospitals without a PICU using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Emergency admissions requiring high dependency care in hospitals without a PICU increased from 3.30 (95% CI 3.09 to 3.51) per 10 000 child-years in 2008/2009 to 7.58 (95% CI 7.28 to 7.89) in 2016/2017 and overtook hospitals with a PICU in 2015/2016. The odds of an admission requiring high dependency care to a hospital without a PICU compared with a hospital with a PICU increased by 9% per study year (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.10). The same trend was not present for admissions requiring intensive care (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2008/2009 and 2016/2017, an increasing proportion of admissions with indicators of high dependency care took place in hospitals without a PICU.

Is socioeconomic position associated with bronchiolitis seasonality? A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Understanding differences in the seasonality of bronchiolitis can help to plan the timing of interventions. We quantified the extent to which seasonality in hospital admissions for bronchiolitis is modified by socioeconomic position.

METHODS

Using Hospital Episode Statistics, we followed 3 717 329 infants born in English National Health Service hospitals between 2011 and 2016 for 1 year. We calculated the proportion of all infant admissions due to bronchiolitis and the incidence rate of bronchiolitis admissions per 1000 infant-years, according to year, month, age, socioeconomic position and region. We used harmonic Poisson regression analysis to assess whether socioeconomic position modified bronchiolitis seasonality.

RESULTS

The admission rate for bronchiolitis in England increased from 47.4 (95% CI 46.8 to 47.9) to 58.9 per 1000 infant-years (95% CI 58.3 to 59.5) between 2012 and 2016. We identified some variation in the seasonality of admissions by socioeconomic position: increased deprivation was associated with less seasonal variation and a slightly delayed epidemic peak. At week 50, the risk of admission was 38% greater (incidence rate ratios 1.38; 95% CI 1.35 to 1.41) for infants in the most deprived socioeconomic group compared with the least deprived group.

CONCLUSION

These results do not support the need for differential timing of prophylaxis or vaccination by socioeconomic group but suggest that infants born into socioeconomic deprivation should be considered a priority group for future interventions. Further research is needed to establish if the viral aetiology of bronchiolitis varies by season and socioeconomic group, and to quantify risk factors mediating socioeconomic deprivation and bronchiolitis rates.

β2-integrin LFA1 mediates airway damage following neutrophil transepithelial migration during respiratory syncytial virus infection

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is the most common cause of infant hospital admissions, but there is limited understanding of the mechanisms of disease, and no specific antiviral treatment. Using a novel in vitro primary transepithelial neutrophil migration model and innovative imaging methods, we show that RSV infection of nasal airway epithelium increased neutrophil transepithelial migration and adhesion to infected epithelial cells, which is associated with epithelial cell damage and reduced ciliary beat frequency, but also with a reduction in infectious viral load.Following migration, RSV infection results in greater neutrophil activation, degranulation and release of neutrophil elastase into the airway surface media compared to neutrophils that migrated across mock-infected nasal epithelial cells. Blocking of the interaction between the ligand on neutrophils (the β₂-integrin LFA-1) for intracellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1 on epithelial cells reduced neutrophil adherence to RSV-infected cells and epithelial cell damage to pre-infection levels, but did not reduce the numbers of neutrophils that migrated or prevent the reduction in infectious viral load.These findings have provided important insights into the contribution of neutrophils to airway damage and viral clearance, which are relevant to the pathophysiology of RSV bronchiolitis. This model is a convenient, quantitative preclinical model that will further elucidate mechanisms that drive disease severity and has utility in antiviral drug discovery.

Correction to: Profile of severely growth-restricted births undelivered at 40 weeks in Western Australia

Unfortunately, after publication, we found errors in the extraction of data on gestational diabetes and threatened miscarriage.

The contribution of child, family and health service factors to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospital admissions in the first 3 years of life: birth cohort study in Scotland, 2009 to 2015

Introduction

Several vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are under development. Designing an effective vaccination programme for RSV requires information about the relative contribution of risk factors for severe RSV symptoms.

Aim

To inform preventive strategies in Europe by quantifying the contribution of key child, family and health service risk factors to the burden of RSV hospital admissions in young children.

Methods

We constructed a birth cohort study of all singleton children born in Scotland between October 2009 and September 2012 using linkage between birth registration, maternity, vaccination and hospital admission records, with follow-up until the age of 3 years. RSV-confirmed hospital admissions were defined using linkage to national laboratory surveillance data. We estimated hospital admission rates per 1,000 child years and length of stay according to each risk factor. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios.

Results

There were 5,185 RSV admissions among the 169,726 children in the cohort: 48.6% of admissions occurred before the age of 6 months, and 29.6% after the age of 1 year. Children born prematurely, small for gestational age, between July and December, with chronic conditions, older siblings, mothers < 30 years old or delayed infant vaccination had a significantly increased risk of admission. Minimising the risk posed by older siblings could reduce RSV admissions by up to 34%.

Conclusion

Future RSV vaccination programmes must protect children throughout early childhood. Vaccination and/or interventions to reduce transmission by older siblings could substantially reduce RSV hospital admissions.

Deprivation and mortality related to pediatric respiratory tract infection: a cohort study in 3 high-income jurisdictions

BACKGROUND

Deaths from respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in children are preventable through timely access to public health and medical interventions. We aimed to assess whether socioeconomic disparities in mortality related to pediatric RTI persisted after accounting for health status at birth.

METHODS

We compared the prevalence of and risk factors for RTI-related death in singletons aged 28 days to 4 years across Ontario (Canada), Scotland and England (jurisdictions with universal health care) using linked administrative data for 2003-2013. We estimated rates of RTI-related mortality for children living in deprived areas and those born to teenage girls; we estimated both crude rates and those adjusted for health status at birth.

RESULTS

A total of 1 299 240 (Ontario), 547 556 (Scotland) and 3 910 401 (England) children were included in the study. Across all jurisdictions, children born in the most deprived areas experienced the highest rates of RTI-related mortality. After adjustment for high-risk chronic conditions and prematurity, we observed differences in mortality according to area-level deprivation in Ontario and England but not in Scotland. In Ontario, teenage motherhood was also an independent risk factor for RTI-related mortality.

INTERPRETATION

Socioeconomic disparities played a substantial role in child mortality related to RTI in all 3 jurisdictions. Context-specific investigations around the mechanisms of this increased risk and development of programs to address socioeconomic disparities are needed.

National data opt out programme: consequences for maternity statistics in England

Electronic health records offer great potential for individual care, service improvement and, when collated, the health of the wider population. Datasets composed of these types of records have been invaluable to our understanding of risk factors for maternal and infant ill-health. However, a potential barrier to data quality in England is emerging where patients choose to opt out of sharing their information beyond the NHS. Focussing on maternity statistics, we will present the importance of population level health data for monitoring NHS services, and the potential consequences for patients of opting out. Evidencing the success of similar systems in Nordic countries, we argue that the English population must be better informed of the implications of opting out of sharing NHS data for research and the safeguards in place to protect patient information.

Geospatial and seasonal variation of bronchiolitis in England: a cohort study using hospital episode statistics

BACKGROUND

Rates of hospital admissions for bronchiolitis vary seasonally and geographically across England; however, seasonal differences by area remain unexplored. We sought to describe spatial variation in the seasonality of hospital admissions for bronchiolitis and its association with local demographic characteristics.

METHODS

Singleton children born in English National Health Service hospitals between 2011 and 2016 (n=3 727 013) were followed up for 1 year. Poisson regression models with harmonic functions to model seasonal variations were used to calculate weekly incidence rates and peak timing of bronchiolitis admissions across English regions and clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). Linear regression was used to estimate the joint association of population density and deprivation with incidence and peak timing of bronchiolitis admissions at the CCG level.

RESULTS

Bronchiolitis admission rates ranged from 30.9 per 1000 infant-years (95% CI 30.4 to 31.3) in London to 68.7 per 1000 (95% CI 67.9 to 69.5) in the North West. Across CCGs, there was a 5.3-fold variation in incidence rates and the epidemic peak ranged from week 49.3 to 52.2. Admission rates were positively associated with area-level deprivation. CCGs with earlier peak epidemics had higher population densities, and both high and low levels of deprivation were associated with earlier peak timing.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one quarter of the variation in admission rates and two-fifths of the variation in peak timing of hospital admissions for bronchiolitis were explained by local demographic characteristics. Implementation of an early warning system could help to prepare hospitals for peak activity and to time public health messages.

Phenotyping congenital anomalies in administrative hospital records

BACKGROUND

Congenital anomalies are a major cause of co-morbidity in children. Diagnostic code lists are increasingly used to identify congenital anomalies in administrative health records. Evidence is lacking on comparability of these code lists.

OBJECTIVES

To compare prevalence of congenital anomalies and prognostic outcomes for children with congenital anomalies identified in administrative health records using three different code lists.

METHODS

We developed national cohorts of singleton livebirths in England (n = 7 354 363, 2003-2014) and Scotland (n = 493 556, 2003-2011). Children with congenital anomalies were identified if congenital anomaly diagnosis was recorded at birth, during subsequent hospital admission or as cause of death before 2 years old. We used three code lists: the EUROCAT list for congenital anomaly surveillance in Europe; the Hardelid list developed to identify children with chronic conditions (including congenital anomalies) admitted to hospital in England; and the Feudtner list developed to indicate children with complex chronic conditions (including congenital anomalies) admitted to hospitals in the United States. We compared prevalence, and risks of postnatal hospital readmission and death according to each code list in England and Scotland.

RESULTS

Prevalence of congenital anomalies was highest using the EUROCAT list (4.1% of livebirths in England, 3.7% in Scotland), followed by Hardelid (3.1% and 3.0% of livebirths, respectively) and Feudtner (1.8% and 1.5% of livebirths, respectively). 67.2%-73.3% of children with congenital anomalies in England and 65.2%-77.0% in Scotland had at least one postnatal hospital admission across the three code lists; mortality ranged between 42.6-75.4 and 41.5-88.7 deaths per 1000 births in England Scotland, respectively. The risk of these adverse outcomes was highest using Feudtner and lowest using EUROCAT code lists.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of congenital anomalies varied by congenital anomaly code list, over time and between countries, reflecting in part differences in hospital coding practices and admission thresholds. As a minimum, researchers using administrative health data to study congenital anomalies should report sensitivity analyses using different code lists.

Origins of disparities in preventable child mortality in England and Sweden: a birth cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To compare mortality in children aged <5 years from two causes amenable to healthcare prevention in England and Sweden: respiratory tract infection (RTI) and sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI).

DESIGN

Birth cohort study using linked administrative health databases from England and Sweden.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Singleton live births between 2003 and 2012 in England and Sweden, followed up from age 31 days until the fifth birthday, death or 31 December 2013.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures were HR for RTI-related mortality at 31-364 days and at 1-4 years and SUDI mortality at 31-364 days in England versus Sweden estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. We calculated unadjusted HRs and HRs adjusted for birth characteristics (gestational age, birth weight, sex and congenital anomalies) and socioeconomic factors (maternal age and socioeconomic status).

RESULTS

The English cohort comprised 3 928 483 births, 768 RTI-related deaths at 31-364 days, 691 RTI-related deaths at 1-4 years and 1166 SUDIs; the corresponding figures for the Swedish cohort were 1 012 682, 131, 118 and 189. At 31-364 days, unadjusted HR for RTI-related death in England versus Sweden was 1.52 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.82). After adjusting for birth characteristics, the HR reduced to 1.16 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.40) and for socioeconomic factors to 1.11 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.34). At 1-4 years, unadjusted HR was 1.58 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.92) and decreased to 1.32 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.61) after adjusting for birth characteristics and to 1.30 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.59) after further adjustment for socioeconomic factors. For SUDI, the respective HRs were 1.59 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.85) in the unadjusted model, and 1.40 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.63) after accounting for birth characteristics and 1.19 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.39) in the fully adjusted model.

CONCLUSION

Interventions that improve maternal health before and during pregnancy to reduce the prevalence of adverse birth characteristics and address poverty could reduce child mortality due to RTIs and SUDIs in England.

Temporal trends and socioeconomic differences in acute respiratory infection hospitalisations in children: an intercountry comparison of birth cohort studies in Western Australia, England and Scotland

OBJECTIVES

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a global cause of childhood morbidity. We compared temporal trends and socioeconomic disparities for ARI hospitalisations in young children across Western Australia, England and Scotland.

DESIGN

Retrospective population-based cohort studies using linked birth, death and hospitalisation data.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Population birth cohorts spanning 2000-2012 (Western Australia and Scotland) and 2003-2012 (England).

OUTCOME MEASURES

ARI hospitalisations in infants (<12 months) and children (1-4 years) were identified through International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition diagnosis codes. We calculated admission rates per 1000 child-years by diagnosis and jurisdiction-specific socioeconomic deprivation and used negative binomial regression to assess temporal trends.

RESULTS

The overall infant ARI admission rate was 44.3/1000 child-years in Western Australia, 40.7/1000 in Scotland and 40.1/1000 in England. Equivalent rates in children aged 1-4 years were 9.0, 7.6 and 7.6. Bronchiolitis was the most common diagnosis. Compared with the least socioeconomically deprived, those most deprived had higher ARI hospitalisation risk (incidence rate ratio 3.9 (95% CI 3.5 to 4.2) for Western Australia; 1.9 (1.7 to 2.1) for England; 1.3 (1.1 to 1.4) for Scotland. ARI admissions in infants were stable in Western Australia but increased annually in England (5%) and Scotland (3%) after adjusting for non-ARI admissions, sex and deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

Admissions for ARI were higher in Western Australia and displayed greater socioeconomic disparities than England and Scotland, where ARI rates are increasing. Prevention programmes focusing on disadvantaged populations in all three countries are likely to translate into real improvements in the burden of ARI in children.

The contribution of child, family and health service factors to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospital admissions in the first 3 years of life: birth cohort study in Scotland, 2009 to 2015

IntroductionSeveral vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are under development. Designing an effective vaccination programme for RSV requires information about the relative contribution of risk factors for severe RSV symptoms.AimTo inform preventive strategies in Europe by quantifying the contribution of key child, family and health service risk factors to the burden of RSV hospital admissions in young children.MethodsWe constructed a birth cohort study of all singleton children born in Scotland between October 2009 and September 2012 using linkage between birth registration, maternity, vaccination and hospital admission records, with follow-up until the age of 3 years. RSV-confirmed hospital admissions were defined using linkage to national laboratory surveillance data. We estimated hospital admission rates per 1,000 child years and length of stay according to each risk factor. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios.ResultsThere were 5,185 RSV admissions among the 169,726 children in the cohort: 48.6% of admissions occurred before the age of 6 months, and 29.6% after the age of 1 year. Children born prematurely, small for gestational age, between July and December, with chronic conditions, older siblings, mothers < 30 years old or delayed infant vaccination had a significantly increased risk of admission. Minimising the risk posed by older siblings could reduce RSV admissions by up to 34%.ConclusionFuture RSV vaccination programmes must protect children throughout early childhood. Vaccination and/or interventions to reduce transmission by older siblings could substantially reduce RSV hospital admissions.