Lifetime and 10-year risks of cardiovascular mortality in relation to risk factors in middle and old age: 50-year follow-up of the Whitehall study of London Civil Servants

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality has declined substantially in the United Kingdom (UK) in recent decades, but the continued relevance of conventional risk factors for prediction of CVD mortality throughout the life-course is uncertain. We compared the 10-year risks and lifetime risks of CVD mortality associated with conventional risk factors recorded in middle and old age.

METHODS

The Whitehall study was a prospective study of 19,019 male London civil servants (mean age 52 years) when enrolled in 1967-1970 and followed-up for 50 years for cause-specific mortality. In 1997, 7044 (83%) survivors (mean age 77 years) were re-surveyed. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD mortality were estimated by levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and old-age, respectively.

RESULTS

By July 2020, 97% had died (22%, 51% and 80% before age 70, 80 and 90 years, respectively) and 7944 of 17,673 deaths (45%) were from CVD. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD death increased linearly with higher levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and in old-age. Individuals in the top versus bottom 5% of CVD risk scores in middle age had a 10.3% (95% CI:7.2-13.4) vs 0.6% (0.1-1.2) 10-year risk of CVD mortality, a 61.4% (59.4-65.3) vs 31.3% (24.1-34.5) lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 12-year difference in life expectancy from age 50 years. The corresponding differences using a CVD risk score in old-age were 11.0% (4.4-17.5) vs 0.8% (0.0-2.2) for 10-year risk and 42.1% (28.2-50.0) vs 30.3% (6.0-38.0) for lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 6-year difference in life expectancy from age 70 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Conventional risk factors remained highly predictive of CVD mortality and life expectancy through the life-course. The findings highlight the relevance of estimation of both lifetime risks of CVD and 10-year risks of CVD for primary prevention of CVD.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

The role of rigid laryngo-tracheo-bronchoscopy in children with obstructive sleep apnoea: a case series of 65 children

OBJECTIVE

To assess the role of laryngo-tracheo-bronchoscopy in children with obstructive sleep apnoea by identifying airway abnormalities at surgery, that occur separately or in addition to adenotonsillar hypertrophy, and examining the correlation with respiratory parameters.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted of children with obstructive sleep apnoea who underwent laryngo-tracheo-bronchoscopy intra-operatively, performed by a single ENT surgeon from February 2016 to July 2019. Pre- and post-operative minimum oxygen saturation, apnoea-hypopnoea index, and oxygen desaturation index were recorded.

RESULTS

Sixty-five children were identified; 34 were aged less than three years and 31 were aged three years or more. 77 per cent and 13 per cent respectively had an airway abnormality; the t-test showed a significantly higher mean oxygen desaturation index and lower mean minimum oxygen saturation pre-operatively compared to children without an airway abnormality.

CONCLUSION

An update of the surgical pathway for children aged less than three years with obstructive sleep apnoea is required to include laryngo-tracheo-bronchoscopy intra-operatively. A t-test analysis of the pre-operative respiratory parameters suggests that airway abnormalities contribute to obstructive sleep apnoea severity.

Immp2l knockdown in male mice increases stimulus-driven instrumental behaviour but does not alter goal-directed learning or neuron density in cortico-striatal circuits in a model of Tourette syndrome and autism spectrum disorder

Cortico-striatal neurocircuits mediate goal-directed and habitual actions which are necessary for adaptive behaviour. It has recently been proposed that some of the core symptoms of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and Gilles de la Tourette syndrome (GTS), such as tics and other repetitive behaviours, may emerge because of imbalances in these neurocircuits. We have recently developed a model of ASD and GTS by knocking down Immp2l, a mitochondrial gene frequently associated with these disorders. The current study sought to determine whether Immp2l knockdown (KD) in male mice alters flexible, goal- or cue- driven behaviour using procedures specifically designed to examine response-outcome and stimulus-response associations, which underlie goal-directed and habitual behaviour, respectively. Whether Immp2l KD alters neuron density in cortico-striatal neurocircuits known to regulate these behaviours was also examined. Immp2l KD mice and wild type-like mice (WT) were trained on Pavlovian and instrumental learning procedures where auditory cues predicted food delivery and lever-press responses earned a food outcome. It was demonstrated that goal-directed learning was not changed for Immp2l KD mice compared to WT mice, as lever-press responses were sensitive to changes in the value of the food outcome, and to contingency reversal and degradation. There was also no difference in the capacity of KD mice to form habitual behaviours compared to WT mice following extending training of the instrumental action. However, Immp2l KD mice were more responsive to auditory stimuli paired with food as indicated by a non-specific increase in lever response rates during Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer. Finally, there were no alterations to neuron density in striatum or any prefrontal cortex or limbic brain structures examined. Thus, the current study suggests that Immp2l is not necessary for learned maladaptive goal or stimulus driven behaviours in ASD or GTS, but that it may contribute to increased capacity for external stimuli to drive behaviour. Alterations to stimulus-driven behaviour could potentially influence the expression of tics and repetitive behaviours, suggesting that genetic alterations to Immp2l may contribute to these core symptoms in ASD and GTS. Given that this is the first application of this battery of instrumental learning procedures to a mouse model of ASD or GTS, it is an important initial step in determining the contribution of known risk-genes to goal-directed versus habitual behaviours, which should be more broadly applied to other rodent models of ASD and GTS in the future.

Evaluating the effect of child home safety training upon three family support practitioner groups: a mixed-methods study

AIMS

Unintentional injuries in the home contribute substantially to preschool child morbidity and mortality. Practitioners such as health visitors, family mentors and children's centre staff are well-positioned to facilitate child injury prevention by providing home safety advice to families, and training may enhance their ability to do so. We aimed to assess the impact of child home safety training for these practitioners.

METHODS

An explanatory mixed-methods design was used. Practitioners completed questionnaires before, and up to 7 months after, receiving child home safety training and took part in interviews. Seventy-eight health visitors, 72 family mentors and 11 children's centre staff members completed questionnaires. Items were used to calculate scores on home safety knowledge, confidence to provide home safety advice and belief that child home safety promotion is important. Thematic analysis of interviews with seven health visitors and nine family mentors, open-ended responses to the questionnaires and an additional evaluation form was conducted to explore attendees' perceptions of the training and its impact. In addition, seven health visitors and six children's centre staff who had received no training were interviewed.

RESULTS

Knowledge was greater post-training than pre-training across all participants (p < .001). When practitioner groups were analysed separately, there were significant increases in family mentors' knowledge (p < .001) and belief (p = .016), and health visitors' confidence (p = .0036). Qualitative findings indicated that most training session attendees valued the training, believed their practice relating to child home safety had improved as a result, and felt further similar training sessions would be beneficial. Those who had not attended the sessions described a need for more child home safety training.

CONCLUSIONS

Delivering training to practitioners providing child home safety promotion to families with preschool children can enhance injury prevention knowledge, beliefs and confidence and positively impact on home safety promotion by practitioners.

Stabilized Radiation Pressure Acceleration and Neutron Generation in Ultrathin Deuterated Foils

Premature relativistic transparency of ultrathin, laser-irradiated targets is recognized as an obstacle to achieving a stable radiation pressure acceleration in the "light sail" (LS) mode. Experimental data, corroborated by 2D PIC simulations, show that a few-nm thick overcoat surface layer of high Z material significantly improves ion bunching at high energies during the acceleration. This is diagnosed by simultaneous ion and neutron spectroscopy following irradiation of deuterated plastic targets. In particular, copious and directional neutron production (significantly larger than for other in-target schemes) arises, under optimal parameters, as a signature of plasma layer integrity during the acceleration.

Defining core patient descriptors for perforated peptic ulcer research: international Delphi

BACKGROUND

Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) remains a common condition globally with significant morbidity and mortality. Previous work has demonstrated variation in reporting of patient characteristics in PPU studies, making comparison of studies and outcomes difficult. The aim of this study was to standardize the reporting of patient characteristics, by creating a core descriptor set (CDS) of important descriptors that should be consistently reported in PPU research.

METHODS

Candidate descriptors were identified through systematic review and stakeholder proposals. An international Delphi exercise involving three survey rounds was undertaken to obtain consensus on key patient characteristics for future research. Participants rated items on a scale of 1-9 with respect to their importance. Items meeting a predetermined threshold (rated 7-9 by over 70 per cent of stakeholders) were included in the final set and ratified at a consensus meeting. Feedback was provided between rounds to allow refinement of ratings.

RESULTS

Some 116 clinicians were recruited from 29 countries. A total of 63 descriptors were longlisted from the literature, and 27 were proposed by stakeholders. After three survey rounds and a consensus meeting, 27 descriptors were included in the CDS. These covered demographic variables and co-morbidities, risk factors for PPU, presentation and pathway factors, need for organ support, biochemical parameters, prognostic tools, perforation details, and surgical history.

CONCLUSION

This study defines the core descriptive items for PPU research, which will allow more robust synthesis of studies.

Multiplexed apolipoprotein profiling advances the assessment of residual lipid-related cardiovascular risk

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

Background and Purpose

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is among the conventional lipid parameters used to predict risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Statins lower blood levels of pro-atherogenic LDL-C, but a residual cardiovascular risk remains in some individuals with therapeutically optimised LDL-C levels. Although the metabolism of LDL-C and other lipoprotein particles is governed by a range of different apolipoproteins, only apolipoproteins A-I and B are measured in clinical assays. Using a more comprehensive apolipoprotein panel in a large epidemiological cohort, this study aimed to determine the association of individual apolipoprotein levels with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD).

Methods

Bottom-up multiple reaction monitoring–mass spectrometry (MRM–MS) was used in conjunction with stable isotope-labelled peptide standards to quantify plasma levels of 13 apolipoproteins in participants of the Precocious Coronary Artery Disease (PROCARDIS) study (N = 1916; 941 cases of CHD, 975 controls). The relationship between apolipoprotein levels and CHD was assessed after adjusting for established risk factors for CVD and correcting for statin use.

Results

The strongest positive associations with CHD in the PROCARDIS study were seen for triglyceride-related apolipoproteins C-I (odds ratio [OR] 2.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.63–3.46), C-III (OR 2.95, 95% CI 1.85–4.71) and E (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.54–3.58), as well as for apolipoprotein (a) (kringle IV type 2 repeat, OR 2.84, 95% CI 2.04–3.95). Comparing these with associations of apolipoproteins with CVD in the Bruneck study (N = 688) revealed consistency across the two cohorts. Robust inverse associations with CHD were observed for apolipoproteins A-IV (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.31–0.65) and M (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.19–0.44).

Conclusion

Analysing two large epidemiological cohorts, Bruneck and PROCARDIS, demonstrated that multiplexed apolipoprotein profiling improves the understanding of cardiovascular risk independent of conventional lipid parameters. Most prominently, triglyceride-related apolipoproteins were shown to positively associate with residual cardiovascular risk. The findings of this study support the need for development and implementation of standardised, MRM–MS-based apolipoprotein profiling assays to guide novel lipid-modifying therapies beyond statins.

Absolute calibration of Fujifilm BAS-TR image plate response to laser driven protons up to 40 MeV

Image plates (IPs) are a popular detector in the field of laser driven ion acceleration, owing to their high dynamic range and reusability. An absolute calibration of these detectors to laser-driven protons in the routinely produced tens of MeV energy range is, therefore, essential. In this paper, the response of Fujifilm BAS-TR IPs to 1-40 MeV protons is calibrated by employing the detectors in high resolution Thomson parabola spectrometers in conjunction with a CR-39 nuclear track detector to determine absolute proton numbers. While CR-39 was placed in front of the image plate for lower energy protons, it was placed behind the image plate for energies above 10 MeV using suitable metal filters sandwiched between the image plate and CR-39 to select specific energies. The measured response agrees well with previously reported calibrations as well as standard models of IP response, providing, for the first time, an absolute calibration over a large range of proton energies of relevance to current experiments.

Inter-relationships of different electrocardiographic indicators of left ventricular hypertrophy in 25,000 Chinese adults

Background

Several electrocardiographic (ECG) indices have previously been proposed to diagnose left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). Such indices utilize different criteria, including increased QRS voltage, prolonged QRS duration, left axis deviation, and LAFB and LBBB-like patterns in varying combinations. However, the inter-relationships of these different electrocardiographic indices of LVH with each otherare not fully understood.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between the different LVH indices.

Methods

Electronic tracings of 12-lead ECGs recorded in 24,786 adult participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank recorded in 2014 were accessed to detect presence of LVH. ECG parameters of LVH, including individual and combinations of such parameters (voltage-only criteria such as Sokolov-Lyon, Cornell, Gubner as well as scores such as Romhilt-Estes point score) were estimated using customized computer software (Cardiolyse Oy, Finland) and compared proprietary LVH point score algorithms (Mortara, USA). Relationships between the different indices were assessed using a correlation matrix to explore associations between individual parameters and combined indices of such parameters. The matrices were used to construct heat maps and identify clustering of individual parameters.

Results

Overall, approximately 10% of the population had LVH assessed by Mortara algorithms. This graph shows that along with the free standing peaks, the rest are divided into two clusters of interconnected individual parameters. In the center of the largest cluster is the parameter, reflecting R-peak magnitude in aVL lead. In the center of another cluster was the left ventricular strain pattern, as described in Romhilt-Estes point score system. Overall, the Sokolov-Lyon index and LVH point score in Veritas algorithm had the strongest relationships with each other, but the Gubner and Cornell indices had relatively weak correlations with the other indices (Table 1). The mean correlation coefficient between five combined LVH indices was as follows: Veritas (Mortara) – 0.58, Sokolov-Lyon – 0.56, Romhilt-Estes – 0.45, Gubner – 0,32, Cornell – 0,3.

Conclusions

Parameters such as R-peak magnitude in aVL and left ventricular strain pattern were the most strongly related with each other. Aggregate indices, such as the Sokolov-Lyon index and LVH point score in Veritas algorithm were the most strongly related with all other indices, but the Gubner and Cornell indices were only weakly correlated. The results reinforce the utility of Sokolov-Lyon index and Mortara algorithms as the optimum measures of LVH.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

921 Management of Acute Cholecystitis - the MACHO Study

Background

Acute cholecystitis is a common surgical condition. Gold standard treatment is index cholecystectomy, although there are reasons this might not be offered. The aim of this study was to explore treatments and outcomes in patients with acute cholecystitis.

Method

A multicentre retrospective study was carried out to identify a historic three-month cohort. Patients were identified through clinical coding. Demographics, clinical outcomes, comorbidities, Tokyo grade, and intervention descriptors were collected. Logistic regression was performed to identify characteristics of patients receiving a drain, and to propensity match for clinical outcomes.

Results

Seven centres reported on 1130 patients. Median age was 62 years, and 145 (12.8%) had grade III cholecystitis. Grade III cholecystitis was present in 19 (25.6%) of those who underwent cholecystostomy, 34 (9.3%) of those who underwent index cholecystectomy, and 92 (13.3%) of those who were conservatively managed. Overall complication rates were higher for those managed with cholecystostomy (36.5%) or conservatively (22.6%) vs index cholecystectomy (7.5%) (p &lt; 0.001). Logistic regression found CCI and grade III cholecystitis were associated with increased rates of any complication. Increased CCI and grade II/III cholecystitis were associated with increased rates of major complications.

Conclusions

'Hot' laparoscopic cholecystectomy seems to be offered to mild cases in fit patients. Patients with grade III disease and moderate comorbidities may not have cholecystectomy in a timely manner, leaving them at risk of repeated severe episodes.

Detection of asymptomatic carotid stenosis in patients with lower-extremity arterial disease: development and external validations of a risk score

BACKGROUND

Recommendations for screening patients with lower-extremity arterial disease (LEAD) to detect asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) are conflicting. Prediction models might identify patients at high risk of ACS, possibly allowing targeted screening to improve preventive therapy and compliance.

METHODS

A systematic search for prediction models for at least 50 per cent ACS in patients with LEAD was conducted. A prediction model in screened patients from the USA with an ankle : brachial pressure index of 0.9 or less was subsequently developed, and assessed for discrimination and calibration. External validation was performed in two independent cohorts, from the UK and the Netherlands.

RESULTS

After screening 4907 studies, no previously published prediction models were found. For development of a new model, data for 112 117 patients were used, of whom 6354 (5.7 per cent) had at least 50 per cent ACS and 2801 (2.5 per cent) had at least 70 per cent ACS. Age, sex, smoking status, history of hypercholesterolaemia, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, coronary heart disease and measured systolic BP were predictors of ACS. The model discrimination had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.71 (95 per cent c.i. 0.71 to 0.72) for at least 50 per cent ACS and 0.73 (0.72 to 0.73) for at least 70 per cent ACS. Screening the 20 per cent of patients at greatest risk detected 12.4 per cent with at least 50 per cent ACS (number needed to screen (NNS) 8] and 5.8 per cent with at least 70 per cent ACS (NNS 17). This yielded 44.2 and 46.9 per cent of patients with at least 50 and 70 per cent ACS respectively. External validation showed reliable discrimination and adequate calibration.

CONCLUSION

The present risk score can predict significant ACS in patients with LEAD. This approach may inform targeted screening of high-risk individuals to enhance the detection of ACS.

Characterisation, identification, clustering, and classification of disease

The importance of quantifying the distribution and determinants of multimorbidity has prompted novel data-driven classifications of disease. Applications have included improved statistical power and refined prognoses for a range of respiratory, infectious, autoimmune, and neurological diseases, with studies using molecular information, age of disease incidence, and sequences of disease onset (“disease trajectories”) to classify disease clusters. Here we consider whether easily measured risk factors such as height and BMI can effectively characterise diseases in UK Biobank data, combining established statistical methods in new but rigorous ways to provide clinically relevant comparisons and clusters of disease. Over 400 common diseases were selected for analysis using clinical and epidemiological criteria, and conventional proportional hazards models were used to estimate associations with 12 established risk factors. Several diseases had strongly sex-dependent associations of disease risk with BMI. Importantly, a large proportion of diseases affecting both sexes could be identified by their risk factors, and equivalent diseases tended to cluster adjacently. These included 10 diseases presently classified as “Symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified”. Many clusters are associated with a shared, known pathogenesis, others suggest likely but presently unconfirmed causes. The specificity of associations and shared pathogenesis of many clustered diseases provide a new perspective on the interactions between biological pathways, risk factors, and patterns of disease such as multimorbidity.

Effects of within-person variability in spot urinary sodium measurements on the associations with blood pressure and risk of cardiovascular disease in 0.5 Million adults in UK Biobank

Background

Randomised control trials have demonstrated direct positive and causal associations of 24-hr measurements of urinary sodium excretion on blood pressure. However, prospective studies, which often used spot (not 24-hr) measurements of urinary sodium, have reported J-shaped associations with higher risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at sodium intake &lt;4 g/day. The reasons for the discrepant results are not fully understood, but have prompted some to question the World Health Organisation's recommendations to restrict sodium intake to &lt;2.3g/day.

Purpose

We examined the effects of within-person variability in spot urinary sodium (UNa) measurements on immediate and delayed associations of UNa with blood pressure at baseline and at resurvey, and with incident cardiovascular disease in the UK Biobank (UKB).

Methods

Baseline spot urine samples were measured in 502,619 adults at baseline and in 20,346 participants who were resurveyed at 4 years after baseline. Linear regression was used to assess associations of baseline UNa measurements with systolic blood pressure (SBP; mmHg) at baseline and at resurvey. Cox regression was used estimate the associations between baseline measures of UNa with incident CVD events (recorded from linkage with hospital records). All analyses were adjusted for confounders and corrected for regression dilution bias.

Results

After excluding participants with prevalent diseases, the primary analyses involved 386,060 adults who were followed-up for a median of 7.8 years, during which ∼13,000 CVD events occurred. Estimated mean (SD) urinary sodium excretion was 77.4 mmol/L (SD 44.4, IQR = 42.8–103.7 mmol/L), and mean SBP/DBP were 137.5/82.3 (SD 18.5/10.1) mmHg, respectively. Within-person variability in UNa was high, with a self-correlation of 0.35 at 4 years between measurements. After adjustment for confounders and correction for regression dilution bias, a 100 mmol/L higher UNa was associated with an immediate 3.2 mmHg higher SBP (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.8–3.6) in cross-sectional analyses (Figure 1). However, the corresponding associations of baseline UNa with SBP at resurvey was completely attenuated (p=0.20). The predicted risk of CVD was 1.06 (95% CI 1.06–1.07, p&lt;0.001) for a 3.2 mmHg higher SBP, but the observed risk for a 100 mmol/L higher UNa was 0.95 (95% CI 0.82–1.10, p=0.47) (Figure 1).

Conclusions

While spot measurements of UNa were strongly associated with immediate effects on SBP, the magnitude of within-person variability in UNa precluded detection of associations with SBP several years after baseline or with risk of CVD. The extreme within-person variability in spot UNa may explain the discrepant results of the trials and observational studies of sodium and blood pressure.

Figure 1. Spot UNa with SBP and CVD in UK Biobank

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Core funding from the Medical Research Council-Population Health Research Unit, British Heart Foundation

Height and risk of ischaemic stroke subtypes: a Mendelian randomisation study

Background

Taller adult height is associated with lower risks of ischaemic heart disease in both conventional and Mendelian randomisation studies, providing support for a causal association, but the associations of height with ischaemic stroke and ischaemic stroke subtypes are uncertain.

Purpose

To examine the causal relevance of height for ischaemic stroke and ischaemic stroke subtypes.

Methods

Two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses were used to examine the associations of height with: (i) ischaemic stroke and ischaemic stroke subtypes in MEGASTROKE (using summary data from 34 217 ischaemic stroke cases), and with (ii) established cardiovascular and other risk factors using individual data from 336 433 participants in UK Biobank and 57 785 in the China Kadoorie Biobank. Instruments for Mendelian randomisation were constructed from up to 3280 height-associated genetic variants, previously identified as having genome-wide significant effects on height.

Results

Genetically-determined taller height was inversely associated with ischaemic stroke (3% [95% CI: 1–6] lower risk per 1 standard deviation taller height) in MEGASTROKE but this masked much stronger opposing associations on risks of different ischaemic stroke subtypes: 15% (95% CI: 9–21) higher risk of cardioembolic stroke, 10% (4–15) lower risk of large-artery atherosclerotic stroke, and 15% (10–20) lower risk of small-vessel stroke (Figure). Genetically-determined taller height was strongly associated with atrial fibrillation and higher lean body mass and lung function but more weakly associated with lower levels of LDL cholesterol and blood pressure.

Conclusions

The findings support a causal association between taller adult height and risk of atrial fibrillation and cardioembolic stroke. The opposing associations of height with other ischaemic stroke subtypes provide further support for considering ischaemic stroke subtypes as distinct diseases in both research and clinical practice.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation

Independent relevance of left ventricular hypertrophy for risk of ischaemic heart disease in 25,000 Chinese adults

Background

The prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is strongly related with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and, hence, there has been some uncertainty about its independent relevance for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) after taking account of such risk factors.

Purpose

To examine the associations of LVH with prevalent and incident cases of IHD after adjustment for established risk factors for CVD in a population-based study of Chinese adults.

Methods

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study was conducted in the general population of 5 urban and 5 rural areas in China, with a baseline survey in 2004–2008. A random sample of 24,786 participants had a 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) recorded at the second resurvey in 2013–2014. Electronic records of ECG tracings were used to estimate LVH using 5 different criteria (Sokolov, Cornell, Romhilt-Estes, Gubner and Mortara). IHD cases were recorded by linkage to electronic records of hospitalisation, death and disease registries. Cox regression was used to estimate the associations of LVH with prevalent (n=1325) and incident (n=900) cases of IHD after adjustment for age, sex, region, prior vascular disease, smoking, alcohol, SBP, diabetes, lipids and body mass index (BMI).

Results

The overall prevalence of LVH in the population varied depending on the criteria used for detection (Mortara [10%], Sokolov [14%], Cornell [6%], Romhilt-Estes [4%] and Gubner [1%]). The prevalence of LVH (using Sokolov) increased with age and was higher in men than women (20% vs 10%) and linearly with levels of SBP, but also by ∼10-fold between the 10 regions in China. Irrespective of which criteria were used for detection (Table), LVH was strongly associated with both prevalent and incident cases of IHD after adjustment for age, sex, region and established CVD risk factors. Any one measure of LVH was associated with an adjusted OR (95% CI) of 1.30 (1.10, 1.53) for prevalent IHD and 1.40 (1.20, 1.64) for incident IHD, respectively.

Conclusions

Overall, 1 in 10 Chinese adults had LVH, and LVH was associated with 30% higher risk of prevalent IHD and 40% higher risk of IHD independent of established CVD risk factors.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): UK Wellcome Trust

Aerial strategies advance volcanic gas measurements at inaccessible, strongly degassing volcanoes

Volcanic emissions are a critical pathway in Earth's carbon cycle. Here, we show that aerial measurements of volcanic gases using unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) transform our ability to measure and monitor plumes remotely and to constrain global volatile fluxes from volcanoes. Combining multi-scale measurements from ground-based remote sensing, long-range aerial sampling, and satellites, we present comprehensive gas fluxes-3760 ± [600, 310] tons day^-1 CO₂ and 5150 ± [730, 340] tons day^-1 SO₂-for a strong yet previously uncharacterized volcanic emitter: Manam, Papua New Guinea. The CO₂/S_T ratio of 1.07 ± 0.06 suggests a modest slab sediment contribution to the sub-arc mantle. We find that aerial strategies reduce uncertainties associated with ground-based remote sensing of SO₂ flux and enable near-real-time measurements of plume chemistry and carbon isotope composition. Our data emphasize the need to account for time averaging of temporal variability in volcanic gas emissions in global flux estimates.

The impact of COVID-19 on African American communities in the United States

Importance:

The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), declared a pandemic in March 2020, may present with disproportionately higher rates in underrepresented racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States, including African American communities who have traditionally been over-represented in negative health outcomes.

Study Objective:

To understand the impact of the density of African American communities (defined as the percentage of African Americans in a county) on COVID-19 prevalence and death rate within the three most populous counties in each U.S. state and territory (n=152). Design: An ecological study using linear regression was employed for the study.

Setting:

The top three most populous counties of each U.S. state and territory were included in analyses for a final sample size of n=152 counties.

Participants:

Confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths that were accumulated between January 22, 2020 and April 12, 2020 in each of the three most populous counties in each U.S. state and territory were included.

Main outcome measures:

Linear regression was used to determine the association between African American density and COVID-19 prevalence (defined as the percentage of cases for the county population), and death rate (defined as number of deaths per 100,000 population). The models were adjusted for median age and poverty.

Results:

There was a direct association between African American density and COVID-19 prevalence; COVID-19 prevalence increased 5% for every 1% increase in county AA density (p<.01). There was also an association between county AA density and COVID-19 deaths, such; the death rate increased 2 per 100,000 for every percentage increase in county AA density (p=.02).

Conclusion:

These study findings indicate that communities with a high African American density have been disproportionately burdened with COVID-19. Further study is needed to indicate if this burden is related to environmental factors or individual factors such as types of employment or comorbidities that members of these community have.

Parenthood and risk of hip fracture: a 10-year follow-up prospective study of middle-aged women and men in China

This prospective study of Chinese adults demonstrated an inverse J-shaped association of number of children with risk of hip fracture in both men and postmenopausal women aged 50 years or older. Women with 2 or 3 children and men with 4 children had the lowest risk of hip fracture.

INTRODUCTION

Women have higher absolute risks of fracture than men, which is believed to reflect differences in oestrogen exposure. The aim of this study was to compare the associations of number of children with risk of hip fracture between men and women aged over 50 years.

METHODS

The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited 133,399 women and 110,296 men, aged 50 years or older between 2004 and 2008. During 10-year follow-up, 2068 participants (1394 women and 674 men) suffered a hip fracture. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate sex-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI for incident hip fracture.

RESULTS

Over 98% of both subsets of men and women aged 50 or older reported having children. Women who had 2 or 3 children had the lowest risks of hip fracture compared with other groups. Compared with nulliparous women, the adjusted HR for hip fracture were 0.89 (95% CI; 0.72, 1.10) for 1 child, 0.79 (0.70, 0.90) for 2 children, 0.79 (0.72, 0.87) for 3 children, 0.81 (0.72, 0.91) for 4 children, and 0.95 (0.83, 1.10) for those with 5 or more children. The associations of number of children with hip fracture were broadly consistent in men of a similar age.

CONCLUSIONS

The concordant effects of the number of children with risk of hip fracture between men and women suggest that the lower risks in multiparous women are not due to differences in oestrogen exposure or other biological effects, but may reflect residual confounding by socioeconomic or lifestyle factors.

Publisher Correction: Parenthood and risk of hip fracture: a 10-year follow-up prospective study of middle-aged women and men in China

The original version of this article, published on 25 November 2019, unfortunately contained a mistake.

P5505Inflammation implicated in the aetiology of major vascular and non-vascular diseases in East Asians

Background

Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies using genetic variants in the IL6R gene encoding the interleukin-6 (IL-6) receptor have demonstrated that IL-6 plays a causal role in the aetiology of coronary heart disease (CHD) in European populations, with implications for the development of drugs targeting inflammation-related pathways. It is less clear whether IL-6 signalling plays a causal role in vascular disease or major non-vascular diseases in East Asians.

Purpose

Using an MR approach, we investigated associations of altered IL-6 signalling with subtypes of CHD, stroke, cancer and respiratory disease in a large East Asian cohort.

Methods

In approximately 150,000 Chinese adults from the China Kadoorie Biobank, we investigated associations of rs7529229 (in strong linkage disequilibrium, r2=0.99, with the IL6R Asp358Ala variant rs2228145) with blood biomarkers and selected disease events in which inflammation has previously been implicated. First, we used linear regression to quantify the per-allele association of rs7529229 with levels in plasma of log-transformed C-reactive protein (CRP) (n=17,866), fibrinogen (n=9,255), and IL-6 protein (n=633). Second, we used logistic regression to evaluate the association of rs7529229 with incidence of CHD, stroke, cancer, and respiratory disease events. All models were adjusted for age, age-squared, sex (except breast cancer), and case ascertainment (for CRP and fibrinogen), and stratified by recruitment region. We assessed significance at a 5% false discovery rate.

Results

IL6R rs7529229 C-allele was associated with lower log CRP (–0.11 SDs per C-allele; p=4.9x10–25) and log fibrinogen (–0.07 SDs; p=2.2x10–7), and higher log IL-6 (0.15 SDs; p=0.011) (Figure 1), mimicking therapeutic blockade of IL6R. IL6R rs7529229 was associated with a lower risk of acute myocardial infarction (n=4,047 cases; OR: 0.92 [95% CI 0.88–0.96] per C-allele; p=2.8x10–4), with the association similar for fatal and non-fatal cases (Figure 2). There was no evidence of association with ischaemic stroke (n=18,315; OR: 1.00 [0.98–1.03]; p=0.90) or intracerebral haemorrhage (n=7,372; OR: 1.03 [0.99–1.07]; p=0.10). For non-cardiovascular diseases, the IL6R rs7529229 was associated with a lower risk of oesophageal (n=824; OR: 0.88 [0.79–0.97] per C-allele; p=0.013) and colorectal (n=1,151; OR: 0.89 [0.82–0.97]; p=8.3x10–3) cancers, but a higher risk of tuberculosis (n=1,017; OR: 1.15 [1.05–1.26]; p=2.4x10–3).

Conclusion

The results of the present study are consistent with a causal role for the IL-6 signalling pathway in the aetiology of myocardial infarction and some cancers, but not of stroke. These findings provide further genetic support for drug development targeting inflammation in the prevention and treatment of coronary and selected cancer outcomes.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Wellcome Trust, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, BHF, CRUK, NIHR

P2777Natural history and long-term prognosis of stroke types in urban and rural China: a 9-year prospective study of 0.5 million adults

Background

Stroke is a major cause of premature death and disability worldwide. However, relatively little is known about the natural history and long-term prognosis following stroke in many low and middle income countries, including China.

Methods

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 512,000 adults (59% women, mean age 51 years) from 10 (5 urban, 5 rural) areas in China during 2004–08. Information about death and hospitalisation for specific causes was collected by linkage with mortality registries and nationwide health insurance systems. During a 9-year follow-up, 45,732 incident cases of stroke (∼92% confirmed by neuroimaging) were recorded among individuals without prior vascular disease at baseline. The adjusted 28-day case-fatality rates and long-term cumulative risks of recurrent stroke, major vascular events, and mortality following first-ever stroke were estimated by stroke types.

Results

Of the 45,732 first-ever stroke cases reported, 80% (36,588) had IS, 17% (7440) had intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), 2% (702) had subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), and only 1002 (1%) had an unspecified stroke type. The overall 28-day case-fatality following first stroke was 11%, but increased with age and was higher in those in rural than in urban areas (16% vs 6%) and in men than in women (13% vs 10%). The 28-day case-fatality was highest for ICH (47%), lowest for IS (3%) and intermediate for SAH (19%) and unspecified strokes (24%). Among those who survived beyond 28 days, 17% died (28% for ICH, 16% for IS) and 41% had a recurrent stroke (44% for ICH, 41% for IS) at 5 years. For those with first-ever IS, 91% of the subsequent recurrent strokes involved same pathological type, while for ICH, 41% of the recurrent strokes were IS.

Stroke prognosis

Conclusions

Among Chinese adults, the short- and long-term prognosis following first-ever stroke were poor, highlighting the urgent need to implement more effective treatment and secondary prevention strategies for stroke cases.

Acknowledgement/Funding

UK MRC, UK Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, The Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, the Chinese National Science

P2494Cardiovascular disease burden attributed to high blood pressure in Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the most common cause of death among people with diabetes, reflecting in part co-existence with other CVD risk factors, including high blood pressure. However, controversy persists about the nature of the relationship of blood pressure with risk of CVD in individuals with diabetes, and about the associated disease burden.

Methods

We analysed data from 26,315 men and women aged 30–79 years with type 2 diabetes but no prior history of CVD, who were recruited into the China Kadoorie Biobank in 2004–2008 from 10 diverse areas in China. During ∼10 years' follow-up 1,190 major coronary events (MCE), 4,362 ischaemic stroke (IS), 469 intra-cerebral haemorrhage (ICH) events and 4,503 deaths (including 1,807 CVD deaths) were recorded. Usual systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure and uncontrolled hypertension were related to risks of incident CVD and all-cause mortality, after adjustment for relevant confounders.

Results

Overall, 75.7% of participants had prior doctor-diagnosed (24.8%) or screen-detected (67.7%) hypertension, compared with 54.3% among those without diabetes. The age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension was higher among men and in rural areas. Among those with previously diagnosed hypertension, 39.3% reported use of anti-hypertensive medications (on average, 1 agent) and 8.5% had controlled hypertension (<130/80 mmHg). Usual SBP was continuously and positively associated with the risk of CVD, with no evidence of a threshold throughout the range examined (120–180 mmHg). Each 10 mmHg higher SBP was associated with a 27% higher risk for CVD death (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.25–1.30). Strong positive associations were also seen for MCE (1.16, 1.12–1.21), IS (1.15, 1.13–1.18), and ICH (1.46, 1.34–1.60). Overall, uncontrolled hypertension accounts for an estimated 39% (32–45%), 30% (21–38%), 24% (20–28%) and 48% (34–58%) of CVD deaths, MCE, IS and ICH, respectively, among Chinese adults with diabetes.

Conclusion

Hypertension is common but frequently undetected and uncontrolled among adults with type 2 diabetes in China. Effective diagnosis and management of hypertension among individuals with diabetes would be expected to achieve substantial reductions in CVD morbidity and mortality.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, Kadoorie Foundation, MoST, NSFC

P3824Body composition and mortality from vascular or metabolic causes among 150,000 participants in the Mexico City Prospective Study

Background

Higher body-mass index is associated with increased mortality from vascular disease, renal disease and other metabolic causes. However, body mass reflects both fat and lean mass, which may have very different effects on risk. We investigated the individual and joint relevance of fat and lean mass to mortality from these causes, using data from the Mexico City Prospective Study.

Methods

Between 1998 and 2004, 150,000 adults from Mexico City were recruited into a prospective study and tracked for cause-specific mortality for 14 years. Fat and lean mass at recruitment were predicted using Mexican-specific anthropometric equations, validated in a subset of participants with additional bio-impedance measures. Cox regression was used to assess the relevance of fat and lean mass at recruitment to mortality from a vascular, renal, or other metabolic cause at ages 35–74 years. Analyses were adjusted for age at risk, sex, residential district, education, recreational physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption. To avoid reverse causality, analyses excluded those with diabetes or other chronic diseases at recruitment, and deaths in the first 5 years of follow-up. Mortality rate ratios (RRs) relate to the differences per SD of the usual values of various factors or the differences between the top tenth and bottom fifth of the values.

Results

Among 112,923 participants aged 35–74 years, mean (SD) fat mass in men and women was 22.0 (6.4) kgs and 29.4 (7.8) kgs respectively, while mean (SD) lean mass was 54.9 (7.2) kgs and 39.2 (5.0) kgs respectively. In both men and women, equation-predicted fat and lean mass closely matched the bio-impedance values (all r>0.86). Both fat and lean mass were positively and approximately log-linearly associated with mortality from a vascular or metabolic cause. However, the association of lean mass with mortality was more than accounted for by the correlation of lean with fat mass. Hence, after adjustment for fat mass, lean mass was inversely associated with risk. For a given amount of fat mass, the RR for vascular/metabolic mortality comparing those in the top tenth versus bottom fifth of the predicted lean mass was 0.35 (95% CI 0.24–0.52). Conversely, for a given amount of lean mass, the RR comparing those in the top tenth versus bottom fifth of the predicted fat mass was 4.06 (3.06–5.39). The RRs associated with each SD higher fat mass (1.51, 1.40–1.63) or lean mass (0.79, 0.73–0.86) appeared to be little affected by age, sex, or levels of other confounders, and were broadly similar for the major vascular, renal, and other metabolic mortality. The height-adjusted RRs were 1.41 (1.30–1.53) for fat mass and 0.91 (0.82–1.00) for lean mass.

Conclusions

In this Mexican cohort, predicted fat and lean mass had opposing effects on vascular and other metabolic deaths, with no evidence of any thresholds throughout the ranges studied.

P6231Iron status and risk of cardio-metabolic diseases in European adults: a Mendelian randomization study

Background

Observational studies have reported conflicting results about the associations of iron status with risk of cardio-metabolic diseases but such studies are constrained by confounding and reverse causality.

Purpose

To assess the causal relevance of iron status biomarkers (transferrin, serum iron, and ferritin) for risk of coronary artery diseases (CAD), ischaemic stroke (IS), and type 2 diabetes (T2D), using Mendelian randomization (MR).

Methods

Effect size estimates for genetic variants associated with iron status biomarkers were obtained from the Genetics of Iron Status consortium (transferrin saturation, serum iron, and ferritin: n=48,972). The corresponding effects of these variants on the risk of CAD, IS and T2D were obtained from a meta-analysis of unrelated participants of European ancestry in the UK Biobank (UKB), together with previously recruited participants in CARDIOGRAMplusC4D (total n=90,377 CAD cases), MEGASTROKE (total n=43,381 IS cases) and DIAGRAM (total n=74,124 T2D cases), respectively. The main analysis used a two-sample inverse-variance weighted MR, while the sensitivity analyses used weighted-median, weighted-mode, MR-PRESSO, and MR-Egger approaches.

Results

MR analysis demonstrated significant inverse association of each of the three genetically-instrumented iron status biomarker with risk of CAD (transferrin saturation OR=0.96 [95% CI: 0.92–0.99], p=0.02; serum iron OR=0.93 [0.89–0.97], p=0.001; and ferritin OR=0.86 (0.79–0.94), p=0.001, per 1 SD higher level). In contrast, these iron status biomarkers showed positive associations with risk of T2D (transferrin saturation OR=1.06 [1.01–1.11], p=0.01; serum iron OR=1.06 [0.99–1.13], p=0.07; and ferritin OR=1.12 [0.99–1.26], p=0.06, per 1 SD higher level). There was positive, but non-significant, association of IS with each of the iron status biomarker analysed. Sensitivity analyses using several different MR approaches yielded concordant results.

Conclusions

Among European adults, iron status appeared to have causal associations, but in opposite directions, with the risk of CHD and T2D. Our findings highlight the need for caution about strategies for advocating iron supplementation in individuals with normal haemoglobin levels for prevention of CAD.

Acknowledgement/Funding

British Heart Found, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford

P1228Impact of history of vascular disease on lipoprotein(a) associations with cardiovascular outcomes: a Mendelian randomisation study in 283,658 UK Biobank participants

Background

Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies have been widely used to assess the causal relevance of risk factors for disease and to elucidate the likely effects of novel drug targets. MR studies have confirmed the causal relevance of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] for risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the impact of prior vascular disease on these associations remains unclear, and is potentially important when testing the effects of Lp(a) lowering therapies.

Purpose

To examine the associations of LPA variants, as a proxy for Lp(a) levels, with risk of CHD, ischaemic stroke and peripheral vascular disease (PVD), by history of vascular disease in UK Biobank (UKB).

Methods

An LPA genotype score was constructed in 283,658 unrelated white British UKB participants, using 2 SNPs (rs3798220 and rs10455872) previously shown to be independently associated with, and explain ∼40% of the variance in, Lp(a) levels. The LPA score was tested for association with hospitalisation for CHD (n=23,165), presumed ischaemic stroke (n=2,579) and PVD (n=3,780) using Cox PH models. Estimated hazard ratios (per LPA variant) for cardiovascular outcomes are reported both overall and by history of vascular disease (CHD, ischaemic stroke or PVD) at baseline.

Results

As observed in previous studies, LPA was associated with a higher risk of CHD (Hazard ratio [HR] 1.27 per LPA variant; 95% CI: 1.24–1.31). However, the effect was substantially attenuated in participants with versus without prior vascular disease (p-interaction = 3x10–5; Figure). The effect of the LPA score on PVD was comparable to that for CHD (p-heterogeneity = 0.25), whilst the effect on ischaemic stroke was significantly weaker than that for CHD (p-heterogeneity = 6x10–3). As for CHD, the effects of the LPA score on both ischaemic stroke and PVD were weaker in those with versus those without prior vascular disease. Furthermore, the heterogeneity between the effects on cardiovascular outcomes was more extreme when stratified by history of CHD.

Conclusions

This MR study shows that the effects of LPA on risk of CHD, ischaemic stroke and PVD are weaker in individuals with a history of vascular disease, perhaps reflecting the effects of medications used in this setting. Therefore, MR studies in the general population may overestimate the anticipated effects of Lp(a)-lowering therapies in randomised trials, which are typically conducted in individuals with prior vascular disease.

Acknowledgement/Funding

British Heart Foundation

P2780Accuracy of electronic healthcare records for diagnosis of stroke types in a large community-based prospective cohort study in China

Background and purpose

Reliable assessment of the determinants of major pathological types of stroke is dependent on the accuracy of diagnosis in population-based studies. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of stroke types in a large community-based cohort study involving health records collected in China.

Methods

In 2004–08, >0.5 million adults aged 30–79 years were recruited from general populations of 10 diverse areas (5 urban, 5 rural) in China. During an approximate 7-year follow-up, 37,694 stroke cases had been reported by linkage to electronic health records from disease-specific and mortality registries and from national health insurance agencies. For all reported stroke cases, hospital medical records were retrieved systematically and relevant data extracted for subsequent adjudication by specialists using bespoke electronic platforms.

Results

Among all reported incident stroke cases, 80% were ischaemic stroke (IS), 17% were intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), and 1% were subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). To date, medical records have been retrieved for 29,632 cases, with reports of stroke diagnosis verified by public health staff in 27,115 (92%) cases, of which 3,778 (14%) were secondary diagnoses. Evidence of neuroimaging was found in 92% of all verified stroke cases. Of 23,337 primary stroke cases sent for specialist adjudication, a diagnosis of pathological stroke type was confirmed in 19,718 cases with the positive predictive values being 82.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82.0% - 82.8%) for IS, 97.8% (97.6 - 97.9) for ICH, and 98.2% (98.1 - 98.3) for SAH. Overall, the strength of association of systolic blood pressure was over 6-fold greater for confirmed than non-confirmed stroke cases and was nearly 3-fold greater for confirmed ICH than IS cases.

Diagnostic accuracy by stroke type Reported Retrieved Verified Adjudicated Confirmed Approximate 95% CI n n % n % n % n PPV, % IS 30,143 25,477 85 23,551 92 20,045 85 16,515 82.4 (82.0–82.8) ICH 6,484 3,486 54 3,079 88 2,919 95 2,854 97.8 (97.6–97.9) SAH 557 397 71 326 82 279 86 274 98.2 (98.1–98.3) Other 510 272 53 159 59 94 59 75 79.8 (79.4–80.2) IS indicates ischaemic stroke; ICH, intracerebral haemorrhage; SAH, subarachnoid haemorrhage; and PPV, positive predictive value.

Conclusions

The overall diagnostic accuracy of pathological stroke types obtained from hospital records in China is comparable to reports from Western populations. Despite advances in electronic healthcare records, reliable classification of stroke types requires clinical adjudication using additional relevant investigations.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Wellcome Trust & National Natural Science Foundation and National Key Research and Development Program of China

First behavioural assessment of a novel Immp2l knockdown mouse model with relevance for Gilles de la Tourette syndrome and Autism spectrum disorder

Gilles de la Tourette syndrome (GTS) is a neurodevelopmental disorder, which shares some clinical features with Autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The genetic factors relevant to the development of both disorders are yet to be fully understood, however, some genetic association studies have identified inner mitochondrial membrane peptidase subunit 2 (IMMP2L) as a potential risk gene for both GTS and ASD. The impact of Immp2l deficiency on behavioural domains is currently unknown. A new genetic mouse model for Immp2l was developed. Adult heterozygous (HET) and homozygous (HOMO) Immp2l knockdown (Immp2l KD) mice of both sexes were compared to wild type-like (WT) littermates in the open field (OF), social interaction, novel object recognition, marble burying, and prepulse inhibition (PPI). The effect of acute dexamphetamine (2 mg/kg) on OF behaviour was also determined. OF locomotion was significantly higher in HET compared to HOMO male littermates. Male and female HOMO mice were much more sensitive to the locomotor-stimulating effects of dexamphetamine (DEX), whereas only HOMO males exhibited significant increased DEX-induced OF exploration compared to control groups. HOMO females failed to habituate to an acoustic startle stimulus. Furthermore, compared to HOMO females, HET females showed reduced social interaction, and a similar trend was seen in HET males. The Immp2l KD mouse model possesses moderate face validity for preclinical research into GTS and ASD, in particular as dysfunctional dopaminergic neurotransmission appears to be one mechanism leading to disease presentation. The sex-dependent differences observed in most findings reinforce the strong influence of sex in the pathophysiology of GTS and ASD.

Supersonic plasma turbulence in the laboratory

The properties of supersonic, compressible plasma turbulence determine the behavior of many terrestrial and astrophysical systems. In the interstellar medium and molecular clouds, compressible turbulence plays a vital role in star formation and the evolution of our galaxy. Observations of the density and velocity power spectra in the Orion B and Perseus molecular clouds show large deviations from those predicted for incompressible turbulence. Hydrodynamic simulations attribute this to the high Mach number in the interstellar medium (ISM), although the exact details of this dependence are not well understood. Here we investigate experimentally the statistical behavior of boundary-free supersonic turbulence created by the collision of two laser-driven high-velocity turbulent plasma jets. The Mach number dependence of the slopes of the density and velocity power spectra agree with astrophysical observations, and supports the notion that the turbulence transitions from being Kolmogorov-like at low Mach number to being more Burgers-like at higher Mach numbers.

Abstract P2-06-14: The role of SLC7A5 (LAT1) in endocrine therapy-resistant breast cancer

Endocrine therapies are commonly used to treat estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancers, which comprise 70% of all new breast cancer cases. Unfortunately, emergence of resistance to these therapies presents a major clinical challenge. Cancer cells can adapt to the dysregulation of cellular metabolism induced by endocrine therapy in order to evade cell death.Central to this adaptation is the scavenging of free-formed amino acids from the tumor microenvironment. For example, we found 109 solute carrier (SLC) mRNAs to be differentially expressed between endocrine-sensitive and resistant cells. We began our mechanistic studies of these genes with SLC family 7 member 5 (SLC7A5 or LAT1). SLC7A5 is a key component of a transmembrane transporter, which can complex with CD98 and increase the uptake of large, neutral amino acids (such as leucine or tyrosine).

We used a panel of endocrine therapy-resistant (LCC9) and sensitive (MCF7; LCC1) breast cancer cells. SLC7A5 expression was upregulated by estrogen in MCF7 and LCC1 cells; this induction was blocked by fulvestrant treatment. Basal expression of the SLC7A5 protein in the absence of estrogen was 2.75-fold higher in LCC9 cells compared with MCF7 cells; SLC7A5 mRNA expression was 71-fold higher. Fulvestrant treatment did not significantly alter SLC7A5 mRNA or protein expression in LCC9 cells. Inhibiting SLC7A5 function using either a pharmacological inhibitor (JPH203), or depleting expression using siRNA, led to significant suppression of LCC9 cell growth. Cell cycle analysis revealed that SLC7A5 depletion caused cells to accumulate in the G1-phase, with a concurrent reduction of cells in S-phase. In four publicly available datasets of ER+, tamoxifen treated breast cancer patients, high expression of SLC7A5 was significantly associated with poor relapse-free survival.

This study uncovers a novel adaptive mechanism in endocrine therapy-resistant breast cancer cells that is facilitated by increased expression of SLC7A5, which enables them to supplement their increased metabolic needs and promoting cell growth. Blocking the functions of SLC7A5, perhaps in conjunction with inhibition of autophagy, may therefore offer a new avenue of potential therapeutic intervention against endocrine therapy-resistant breast cancers.

Citation Format: Sevigny CM, Sengupta S, Luo Z, Jin L, Pearce D, Clarke R. The role of SLC7A5 (LAT1) in endocrine therapy-resistant breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-06-14.

Abstract P2-06-07: Investigating the role of focal adhesion kinase in regulating CSC activity in invasive ductal carcinoma

Background

Breast Cancer Stem-like Cells (BCSCs) have been associated with tumour development, metastasis and recurrence1. Focal Adhesion Kinase (FAK) is a non-receptor tyrosine kinase classically known for its role in metastasis, proliferation and survival. We have previously shown FAK plays a role in regulating CSC activity in DCIS2. We aimed to investigate FAK and CSC marker expression in a retrospective patient cohort. We aimed to evaluate the effects of FAK inhibition on CSC activity in Invasive Ductal Carcinoma.

Methods

Using a retrospective case-control cohort of 244 patients across a range of molecular phenotypes we evaluated FAK Immunohistochemical expression alongside CSC markers; Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) and Integrin Alpha 6 (ITGa6). FAK expression was measured in IDC cell lines and ALDEFLUOR high expressing cells. FAK was inhibited using 0.5μM VS4718 or SiRNA and CSC activity evaluated in 5 cell lines and 25 patient samples. We determined the effects of 50mg/kg VS4718 for 4 weeks as single agent or in combination with Paclitaxel 7.5mg/kg in a ER-/PR-/HER- Patient Derived Xenograft model (PDX).

Results

Total FAK expression was associated with reduced breast cancer survival. Co-expression of FAK and either BCSC marker was associated with the poorest survival.

FAK and CSC marker expression pFAKtFAKALDH1ITGα6tFAK and ALDH1tFAK and ITGα6Recurrence Risk0.58 (0.31-1.08) p = 0.0842.05 (1.23-3.43) p = 0.0062.21 (1.20-4.05) p=0.0111.54 (0.92-2.23) p=0.107  Breast Cancer Death0.41 (0.12-1.51) p=0.1824.84 (2.33 -10.04) p = &lt;0.0016.58 (1.87-23.10) p=0.0032.23 (1.08-4.58) p=0.03016.7 (3.7-73.9) p=&lt;0.00112.8 (1.37-13.2,) p=0.012Hazard ratios calculated using cox-proportional hazard regression analysis.

pFAK was higher in ALDEFLUOR expressing cells and triple negative cell lines. SiRNA knockout of FAK reduced mammosphere formation, self-renewal and ALDEFLUOR expression from 1.2% to 0.2% (p=&lt;0.01, unpaired t-test) in MDA-MB-231 cells. VS4718 reduced primary mammosphere forming efficiency in all cell lines and reduced self-renewal in ER negative cell lines. FAK inhibition led to a reduction in mammosphere forming efficiency and self-renewal in 25 primary breast cancer specimens as outlined below:

FAK inhibition reduces MFE Primary Breast Cancer samples  ER negative cell lines   ER+/PR+/ Her2-ER-/PR-/Her2+ER-/PR-/Her2-SKBr3MDA-MB-231SUM159Primary mammosphere formation51.1% (n=17)53.2% (n=4)49.6% (n=5)74.1%84.8%67.6%Secondary mammosphere formation45.8% (n=8) 43.9% (n=3)42.1%57.9%47.5%Percentage of mammospheres formed given relative to control. Cell line work, minimum n=6. All above significant p=&lt;0.05, One way Anova used with post hoc Tukeys test.

VS4718 reduced tumour growth, Ki67 staining and CSC activity in our triple negative PDX model. VS4718 administration reduced ex-vivo mammosphere formation, tumour initiating capacity and prevented ALDEFLUOR enrichment when used in combination with Paclitaxel.

Conclusions

FAK, ALDH1 and ITGa6 are associated with increased breast cancer mortality in early breast cancer. Inhibition of FAK reduces CSC activity in vitro and in vivo in cell lines and patient samples. This data suggest that FAK inhibition may be used to reduce CSC activity in triple negative carcinoma.

1. Williams et al, Stem cells 2015.

Citation Format: Timbrell S, Aglan H, Cramer A, Foden P, Weaver D, Pachter J, Farnie G, Clarke R, Bundred N. Investigating the role of focal adhesion kinase in regulating CSC activity in invasive ductal carcinoma [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-06-07.

Abstract P5-04-17: Local network topology differences between early and late recurrence in ER+ breast cancers

Background: Late recurrence is characteristic of ER+ breast cancers. Despite an apparently effective adjuvant endocrine therapy, many breast cancers recur years after their initial endocrine treatment. Why some tumors recur early (&lt;3 years) and some recur later (&gt;5 years) is poorly understood. If systemic endocrine therapies killed all cells, recurrence would reflect only the appearance of new disease. Thus, we hypothesized that cells that survive and lie dormant may be driven, in part, by altered wiring of their cell death signaling. We, therefore, studied how cell death signaling is differentially wired in primary tumors that will recur early versus those that will recur later.

Method: Genes involved in apoptosis, autophagy, ferroptosis, necrosis, and pyroptosis were identified from KEGG to initiate network feature analysis of gene expression data from public and our first in-house gene expression dataset. Data were collected from ER+ breast cancer pre-endocrine treatment samples with up to 20 years follow-up. Publicly available datasets used were GSE6532, GSE2034, GSE7390, GSE17705, GSE12093, and TCGA. We applied our Knowledge-fused Differential Dependency Network (KDDN) analysis tool to the public datasets; KDDN has provided powerful new insights into signaling in breast and other cancers. Common gene-gene interactions (edges) predicted in at least two different datasets were extracted from all KDDN analyses results. To strengthen the relevance of these features, predicted network edges that represent known protein-protein interactions (PPI) were identified from the STRING database, and these edges were noted in the signaling graphs. Final network graphs were constructed using the common edges from all overlaid networks. We conducted IPA analysis on all nodes in the final network and selected those incorporating network hubs. We took a similar approach to our second in-house dataset, which we used for independent testing. Here, patients were included if their tumor exhibited an initial reduction in volume of at least 40% by four months in response to neo-adjuvant Letrozole. Patients were then classified into two groups during follow-up of up to 3.7 years: i) initial tumor size reduction followed by continued response (expected to recur late); ii) initial reduction followed by tumor regrowth (expected to recur early). KDDN analysis was performed on pretreatment samples from these two groups and a network created annotated with PPI information.

Results: MAPK8 and CYCS (Molecular Mechanisms of Cancer, p=1.58E-52), TNFRSF1A Neuroinflammation Signaling Pathway, p=1.26E-54), RELA, and NFKB1 (Colorectal Cancer Metastasis Signaling, p=7.94E-35), were identified as hubs. Hubs may be critical signaling components driving the differences between tumors that will become dormant and recur late. Connections between SLC25A6 and SQSTM1 (p = 0.008), BIRC2 and GABARAP (p = 0.021) in the early group, and AKT3 and IRS2 (p = 0.014) in the late group, were shared between the two final networks. With longer follow-up time on the second in-house dataset, we will better define the two groups and identify additional common phenotype specific gene-gene interactions.

Citation Format: Clarke R, Dixon M, Jin L, Pearce D, Turnbull A, Selli C, Hu R, Zwart A, Wang Y, Xuan J, Sengupta S, Sims A, Liu MC. Local network topology differences between early and late recurrence in ER+ breast cancers [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-04-17.

Abstract P3-10-26: Predicting benefit from HER2-targeted therapies in patients with ER+/HER2+ breast cancer

Background: ER+/HER2+ accounts for up to 10% of all breast cancers (BCs) and most are treated with endocrine therapy (ET) after surgery to reduce the recurrence risk. We developed and validated an immunohistochemistry (IHC) based test (EA2Clin) that incorporates baseline IL6ST, clinical variables and on-treatment measurement of MCM4. Responders (Rs) and non-responders (NRs) to ET are identified and it accurately estimates recurrence-free survival (RFS) and BC-specific overall survival (BCSS). The aim was to determine if EA2Clin could accurately predict ER+/HER2+ patients likely to benefit from ET and to determine if it can identify those for whom HER2-targeted therapies are required.

Methods: 3 cohorts were studied:

A: 32 post-menopausal women (PMW) with large ER+/HER2+ BC treated with neoadjuvant (3-6 months) then adjuvant letrozole. 5 also received adjuvant chemotherapy plus Herceptin. Neoadjuvant clinical response was assessed by changes in tumour volume. Tumour core biopsies were taken at 0, 14 days and 3 months. Gene expression analysis using Illumina HT12 whole-genome beadarrays was performed on a subset (n=17) where fresh tissue was available.

B: 13 PMW with ER+/HER2+ BC who were treated by surgery without neoadjuvant therapy. RNA was extracted from excision tissues and analysed using whole-genome Affymetrix U133A microarrays.

C: 15 PMW with ER+/HER2+ BC treated with 2-weeks of pre-operative letrozole (n=7) or anastrozole (n=8). All received adjuvant letrozole. Tissues were collected at pre-treatment and at surgery. None received Herceptin or chemotherapy.

All patients were followed-up after surgery (median follow-up = 6.4 years).

Results: In cohort A, half (16/32) of the patients responded to ET with tumour volume reductions of &gt;70% with neoadjuvant treatment. Innate resistance was apparent in 3 patients with continued tumour growth on ET, whereas 13 patients developed resistance after a period of response. EAClin2 predicted neoadjuvant response with a 92% accuracy. There was increased expression of phospho-AKT and phospho-ERK in NRs, not seen in Rs. Half (8/16) of the NR cancers expressed phospho-ER; but was not seen in any responsive cancer. Gene expression analysis in 17 patients showed increased MAPK and PI3K pathway activity in the 9 NR compared with the 8 R tumours. These results were recapitulated in cohort B where MAPK and PI3K activity were associated with low levels of IL6ST.

In the 16/32 patients who responded well to neoadjuvant ET the actuarial recurrence rate was 0% at 5 and 10 years. The rate of recurrence in the NR was 30% at both 5 and 10 years. Of the 5 patients who received chemotherapy plus Herceptin, none recurred despite a poor response to neoadjuvant letrozole (median length to last follow-up was 6.1 years). Initial data suggest that in cohort B EA2Clin identifies a group of ER+/HER2+ cancers that can be managed by ET alone.

Conclusions:

· The EA2Clin test identifies ER+/HER2+ BCs who respond well to ET alone and those with a poor clinical response who have higher risk of recurrence.

· NR to ET have increased expression of PI3K and MAPK pathways, consistent with active HER2 signalling.

· There is potential role for EA2Clin in selecting ER+/HER2+ patients that require and benefit from HER2-targeted therapies.

Citation Format: Turnbull AK, Webber V, McStay D, Arthur L, Martinez-Perez C, Fernando A, Renshaw L, Keys J, Clarke R, Sims AH, Dixon JM. Predicting benefit from HER2-targeted therapies in patients with ER+/HER2+ breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-10-26.

A systematic approach to monitoring high preharvest aflatoxin levels in maize and peanuts in Africa and Asia

Aflatoxin in maize and peanuts remains a critical problem in much of Africa and Asia. Many countries in these regions lack a systematic preharvest approach for providing government agencies with warnings of a potential threat to human and animal health resulting from excessive levels of aflatoxin in crops at harvest. This paper sets out an approach to such a system. It is based on the establishment of a surveillance system in each community to monitor aflatoxin contamination resulting from drought stress before harvest and advise on remedial actions. The system should be under the control of a central government coordinator. If severe drought stress occurs, the coordinator would arrange for samples of the affected crop to be provided to a central aflatoxin laboratory established and controlled by the relevant government department. Assays from the central laboratory would be sent via the central coordinator to a government scientific advisory body, which would recommend appropriate remedial action to be taken at government level.

Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980 793 adults from 68 prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men.

METHODS

In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes.

RESULTS

Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980 793 adults. During 9·8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19 686 (25·6%) of 76 965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2·10, 95% CI 1·97-2·24) and tripled risk among women (3·00, 2·71-3·33; χ2 test for heterogeneity p<0·0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35-59 years: 2·60, 2·30-2·94) than in older individuals (aged 70-89 years: 2·01, 1·85-2·19; p=0·0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35-59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5·55, 4·15-7·44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35-59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0·05% (95% CI 0·03-0·07) per year in women compared with 0·08% (0·05-0·10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70-89 years was 1·08% (0·84-1·32) per year in women and 0·91% (0·77-1·05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes.

INTERPRETATION

Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union BIOMED programme, and National Institute on Aging (US National Institutes of Health).

Evaluation of the Normal Cochlear Second Interscalar Ridge Angle and Depth on 3D T2-Weighted Images: A Tool for the Diagnosis of Scala Communis and Incomplete Partition Type II

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Cochlear malformations may be be subtle on imaging studies. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the angle and depth of the lateral second interscalar ridge or notch in ears without sensorineural hearing loss (normal ears) and compare them with ears that have a documented incomplete type II partition malformation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The second interscalar ridge notch angle and depth were measured on MR imaging in normal ears by a single experienced neuroradiologist. The images of normal and incomplete partition II malformation ears were then randomly mixed for 2 novice evaluators to measure both the second interscalar ridge notch angle and depth in a blinded manner. For the mixed group, interobserver agreement was calculated, normal and abnormal ear measurements were compared, and receiver operating characteristic curves were generated.

RESULTS

The 94 normal ears had a mean second interscalar ridge angle of 80.86° ± 11.4° and depth of 0.54 ± 0.14 mm with the 98th percentile for an angle of 101° and a depth of 0.3 mm. In the mixed group, agreement between the 2 readers was excellent, with significant differences for angle and depth found between normal and incomplete partition type II ears for angle and depth on average (P < .001). Receiver operating characteristic cutoffs for delineating normal from abnormal ears were similar for both readers (depth, 0.31/0.34 mm; angle, 114°/104°).

CONCLUSIONS

A measured angle of >114° and a depth of the second interscalar ridge notch of ≤0.31 mm suggest the diagnosis of incomplete partition type II malformation and scala communis. These measurements can be accurately made by novice readers.

The integration of transabdominal ultrasound simulators into an ultrasound curriculum

Introduction

Simulation is increasingly used throughout medicine. Within ultrasound, simulators are more established for learning transvaginal and interventional procedures. The use of modern high-fidelity transabdominal simulators is increasing, particularly in centres with large trainee numbers. There is no current literature on the value of these simulators in gaining competence in abdominal ultrasound. The aim was to investigate the impact of a new ultrasound curriculum, incorporating transabdominal simulators into the first year of training in a UK radiology academy.

Methods

The simulator group included 13 trainees. The preceding cohort of 15 trainees was the control group. After 10 months, a clinical assessment was performed to assess whether the new curriculum resulted in improved ultrasound skills. Questionnaires were designed to explore the acceptability of simulation training and whether it had any impact on confidence levels.

Results

Trainees who had received simulator-enriched training scored higher in an objective clinical ultrasound assessment, which was statistically significant (p = 0.0463). End confidence scores for obtaining diagnostic images and demonstrating pathology were also higher in the simulation group. All trainees stated that transabdominal simulator training was useful in early training.

Conclusions

This initial study shows that embedded into a curriculum, transabdominal ultrasound simulators are an acceptable training method that can result in improved ultrasound skills and higher confidence levels. Using simulators early in training could allow trainees to master the basics, improve their confidence, enabling them to get more educational value from clinical ultrasound experience while reducing the impact of training on service provision.

Abstract P4-04-10: Molecular features of dormancy in ER+ breast cancers

Background:Late recurrence (emergence from dormancy) is characteristic of ER+ breast cancers. Despite adjuvant endocrine therapy, many breast cancers recur decades after their initial diagnosis and treatment. Why this occurs is poorly understood.

Methods: We studied 2 independent datasets of endocrine treated, ER+ breast cancers with up to 20 years follow-up. The 1st comprised matched samples from the primary tumor pretreatment at diagnosis and the first recurrence after or during adjuvant endocrine therapy (all FFPE). The 2nd dataset comprised pretreatment biopsies only (all snap frozen). For both datasets, high quality RNA was amplified, labelled, and subjected to transcriptome analysis using the Affymetrix technology (U133 Plus 2.0). Low quality data were identified using 'simpleaffy' and 'ffpe', and removed; all tools were from the R package unless otherwise noted. Remaining data were normalized using 'frma'. Genes differentially expressed between early (≤3 years) and late (≥ 5 years) were selected using limma. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering and PCA explored the structure of the data.

A similar molecular analysis was done on the 2nd dataset. A classification scheme that robustly separated early from late recurrences was validated in an independent public dataset of comparable patients, array platform, and frozen tissues. We also explored features in pretreatment samples that predetermined response duration.

Results: Genes that separated pretreatment specimens by recurrence time did not separate posttreatment specimens. Specimens did not cluster in patient pairs or by site of recurrence.

8245 genes were differentially expressed between early and late recurrences in the FFPE samples, while 2400 genes were significantly different in the same comparison in the frozen samples. Initial pathway analysis was done on each dataset independently using IPA (Ingenuity® Systems, www.ingenuity.com). 70 canonical pathways were identified in common between the two datasets (pretreatment). We then looked for genes regulated in both datasets (ignores FFPE and frozen tissue as source). There were 279 genes in common that differentially regulated in the same direction (upregulated; downregulated). IPA analysis of these genes identified 49 canonical pathways. We also explored the differentially expressed gene sets using 'GSEA' (www.software.broadinstitute.org/gsea/index.jsp). Pathways consistently associated with early vs. late recurrence include integrin signaling, the unfolded protein response, endoplasmic reticulum stress, actin-based motility, and estrogen biosynthesis.

Conclusion: Analysis of pretreatment tumors can predict early recurrences from those that will remain dormant and recur much later. Recurrent tumors exhibit a remodeled molecular landscape that likely reflects the effects of treatments and/or a recreation of a niche with potentially common features at the site of recurrence. Changes in molecular signaling associated with duration of recurrence are consistent with our experimental model studies in vitro implicating UPR signaling as a major integrator of response to endocrine therapy and duration of survival. Additional data sets are being arrayed and more detailed molecular signaling studies are in progress.

Citation Format: Clarke R, Dixon MJ, Jin L, Turnbull A, Hu R, Zwart A, Wang Y, Xuan J, Sengupta S, Renshaw L, Sims A, Liu MC. Molecular features of dormancy in ER+ breast cancers [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-04-10.

An assessment of the acute dietary exposure to glyphosate using deterministic and probabilistic methods

Use of glyphosate in crop production can lead to residues of the active substance and related metabolites in food. Glyphosate has never been considered acutely toxic; however, in 2015 the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) proposed an acute reference dose (ARfD). This differs from the Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR) who in 2016, in line with their existing position, concluded that an ARfD was not necessary for glyphosate. This paper makes a comprehensive assessment of short-term dietary exposure to glyphosate from potentially treated crops grown in the EU and imported third-country food sources. European Union and global deterministic models were used to make estimates of short-term dietary exposure (generally defined as up to 24 h). Estimates were refined using food-processing information, residues monitoring data, national dietary exposure models, and basic probabilistic approaches to estimating dietary exposure. Calculated exposures levels were compared to the ARfD, considered to be the amount of a substance that can be consumed in a single meal, or 24-h period, without appreciable health risk. Acute dietary intakes were <100% of the ARfD for all foodstuffs, except wild fungi, when calculated using the EFSA model. The model assumptions differ from those of the source model (German national model), resulting in the use of a higher variability factor. Intakes estimated with the German model represented only 18% of the ARfD. The impact of differing assumptions regarding variability and other input parameters is discussed. Probabilistic exposure estimates showed that the acute intake on no person-days exceeded 10% of the ARfD, even for the pessimistic scenario.