Achievement of Target Gain Larger than Unity in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

On December 5, 2022, an indirect drive fusion implosion on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved a target gain G_{target} of 1.5. This is the first laboratory demonstration of exceeding "scientific breakeven" (or G_{target}>1) where 2.05 MJ of 351 nm laser light produced 3.1 MJ of total fusion yield, a result which significantly exceeds the Lawson criterion for fusion ignition as reported in a previous NIF implosion [H. Abu-Shawareb et al. (Indirect Drive ICF Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.129.075001]. This achievement is the culmination of more than five decades of research and gives proof that laboratory fusion, based on fundamental physics principles, is possible. This Letter reports on the target, laser, design, and experimental advancements that led to this result.

An evaluation of AI generated literature reviews in musculoskeletal radiology

PURPOSE

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) tools to aid in summarizing information in medicine and research has recently garnered a huge amount of interest. While tools such as ChatGPT produce convincing and naturally sounding output, the answers are sometimes incorrect. Some of these drawbacks, it is hoped, can be avoided by using programmes trained for a more specific scope. In this study we compared the performance of a new AI tool (the-literature.com) to the latest version OpenAI's ChatGPT (GPT-4) in summarizing topics that the authors have significantly contributed to.

METHODS

The AI tools were asked to produce a literature review on 7 topics. These were selected based on the research topics that the authors were intimately familiar with and have contributed to through their own publications. The output produced by the AI tools were graded on a 1-5 Likert scale for accuracy, comprehensiveness, and relevance by two fellowship trained consultant radiologists.

RESULTS

The-literature.com produced 3 excellent summaries, 3 very poor summaries not relevant to the prompt, and one summary, which was relevant but did not include all relevant papers. All of the summaries produced by GPT-4 were relevant, but fewer relevant papers were identified. The average Likert rating was for the-literature was 2.88 and 3.86 for GPT-4. There was good agreement between the ratings of both radiologists (ICC = 0.883).

CONCLUSION

Summaries produced by AI in its current state require careful human validation. GPT-4 on average provides higher quality summaries. Neither tool can reliably identify all relevant publications.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

GP assessment of unmet need in a complex multimorbid population using a data-driven and clinical triage system: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with unmet healthcare needs are more likely to access unscheduled care. Identifying these patients through data-driven and clinical risk stratification for active case management in primary care can help address patient need and reduce demand on acute services.

AIM

To determine how a proactive digital healthcare system can be used to undertake comprehensive needs analysis of patients at risk of unplanned admission and mortality.

DESIGN & SETTING

Prospective cohort study of six general practices in a deprived UK city.

METHOD

To identify those with unmet needs, the study's population underwent digitally-driven risk stratification into Escalated and Non-escalated groups using seven risk factors. The Escalated group underwent further stratification using GP clinical assessment into Concern and No concern groups. The Concern group underwent Unmet Needs Analysis (UNA).

RESULTS

From 24 746 patients, 516 (2.1%) were triaged into the Concern group and 164 (0.7%) underwent UNA. These patients were more likely to be older (t = 4.69, P<0.001), female (X2 = 4.46, P<0.05), have a Patients At Risk of Re-hospitalisation (PARR) score ≥80 (X2 = 4.31, P<0.05), be a nursing home resident (X2 = 6.75, P<0.01), or on an end-of-life (EOL) register (X2 = 14.55, P<0.001). Following UNA, 143 (87.2%) patients had further review planned or were referred for further input. The majority of patients had four domains of need. In those who GPs would not be surprised if they died within the next few months, n = 69 (42.1%) were not on an EOL register.

CONCLUSION

This study showed how an integrated, patient-centred, digital care system working with GPs can highlight and implement resources to address the escalating care needs of complex individuals.

Framework for Implementing Individualised Dosing of Anti-Cancer Drugs in Routine Care: Overcoming the Logistical Challenges

Precision medicine in oncology involves identifying the 'right drug', at the 'right dose', for the right person. Currently, many orally administered anti-cancer drugs, particularly kinase inhibitors (KIs), are prescribed at a standard fixed dose. Identifying the right dose remains one of the biggest challenges to optimal patient care. Recently the Precision Dosing Group established the Accurate Dosing of Anti-cancer Patient-centred Therapies (ADAPT) Program to address individualised dosing; thus, use existing anti-cancer drugs more safely and efficiently. In this paper, we outline our framework, based on the Medical Research Council (MRC) framework, with a simple 6-step process and strategies which have led to the successful implementation of the ADAPT program in South Australia. Implementation strategies in our 6-step process involve: (1) Evaluate the evidence and identify the cancer drugs: Literature review, shadowing other experts, establishing academic partnerships, adaptability/flexibility; (2) Establishment of analytical equipment for drug assays for clinical purposes: assessment for readiness, accreditation, feasibility, obtaining formal commitments, quality assurance to all stakeholders; (3) Clinical preparation and education: educational material, conducted educational meetings, involve opinion leaders, use of mass media, promote network weaving, conduct ongoing training; (4) Blood collection, sample preparation and analyses: goods received procedures, critical control points (transport time); (5) Interpret and release results with recommendations: facilitate the relay of clinical data to providers; (6) Clinical application: providing ongoing consultation, identify early adopters, identify, and prepare champions. These strategies were selected from the 73 implementation strategies outlined in the Expert Recommendations for Implementing Change (ERIC) study. The ADAPT program currently provides routine plasma concentrations for patients on several orally administered drugs in South Australia and is currently in its evaluation phase soon to be published. Our newly established framework could provide great potential and opportunities to advance individualised dosing of oral anti-cancer drugs in routine clinical care.

Beyond fear and anger: A global analysis of emotional response to Covid-19 news on Twitter using deep learning

The media has been used to disseminate public information amid the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the Covid-19 news has triggered emotional responses in people that have impacted their mental well-being and led to news avoidance. To understand the emotional response to the Covid-19 news, we study user comments on the news published on Twitter by 37 media outlets in 11 countries from January 2020 to December 2022. We employ a deep-learning-based model to identify one of the 6 Ekman's basic emotions, or the absence of emotional expression, in comments to the Covid-19 news, and an implementation of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to identify 12 different topics in the news messages. Our analysis finds that while nearly half of the user comments show no significant emotions, negative emotions are more common. Anger is the most common emotion, particularly in the media and comments about political responses and governmental actions in the United States. Joy, on the other hand, is mainly linked to media outlets from the Philippines and news on vaccination. Over time, anger is consistently the most prevalent emotion, with fear being most prevalent at the start of the pandemic but decreasing and occasionally spiking with news of Covid-19 variants, cases, and deaths. Emotions also vary across media outlets, with Fox News having the highest level of disgust, the second-highest level of anger, and the lowest level of fear. Sadness is highest at Citizen TV, SABC, and Nation Africa, all three African media outlets. Also, fear is most evident in the comments to the news from The Times of India.

Child, parent, and family mental health and functioning in Australia during COVID-19: comparison to pre-pandemic data

The COVID-19 pandemic presents significant risks to population mental health. Despite evidence of detrimental effects for adults, there has been limited examination of the impact of COVID-19 on parents and children specifically. We aim to examine patterns of parent and child (0-18 years) mental health, parent substance use, couple conflict, parenting practices, and family functioning during COVID-19, compared to pre-pandemic data, and to identify families most at risk of poor outcomes according to pre-existing demographic and individual factors, and COVID-19 stressors. Participants were Australian mothers (81%) and fathers aged 18 years and over who were parents of a child 0-18 years (N = 2365). Parents completed an online self-report survey during 'stage three' COVID-19 restrictions in April 2020. Data were compared to pre-pandemic data from four Australian population-based cohorts. Compared to pre-pandemic estimates, during the pandemic period parents reported higher rates of parent depression, anxiety, and stress (Cohen's d = 0.26-0.81, all p < 0.001), higher parenting irritability (d = 0.17-0.46, all p < 0.001), lower family positive expressiveness (d = - 0.18, p < 0.001), and higher alcohol consumption (22% vs 12% drinking four or more days per week, p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, we consistently found that younger parent age, increased financial deprivation, pre-existing parent and child physical and mental health conditions, COVID-19 psychological and environmental stressors, and housing dissatisfaction were associated with worse parent and child functioning and more strained family relationships. Our data suggest wide-ranging, detrimental family impacts associated with the COVID-19 pandemic; and support policy actions to assist families with financial supports, leave entitlements, and social housing.

Lawson Criterion for Ignition Exceeded in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion.

Patient motivation and adherence to an on-demand app-based heart rate and rhythm monitoring infrastructure for atrial fibrillation management through teleconsultation. TeleCheck-AF project results

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

TeleCheck-AF is a mobile health (mHealth) infrastructure developed to provide remote management and comprehensive care to patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) during the Covid disease-19 pandemic lockdown within cardiology centers in Europe. TeleCheck-AF integrates an on-demand photoplethysmography-based heart rate/rhythm monitoring application supported a scheduled teleconsultation.

Purpose

The current sub-study of the TeleCheck-AF project aimed to provide the first real-world dataset on patient adherence and motivation to a standardized mHealth application integrated in remote AF management.

Methods

Patients were instructed to perform 60-second app-based heart rate/rhythm recordings three times daily and in case of symptoms for seven consecutive days prior to teleconsultation. Motivation was defined as number of days in which the expected number of measurements (≥three/day) were performed per number of days over the entire prescription period. Adherence was defined as number of performed measurements per number of expected measurements over the entire prescription period.

Results

Data from 990 consecutive patients with diagnosed AF (median age 64 [57-71] years, 39% female) from 10 centers that included the highest number of patients (≥25) were analyzed. Patients with both optimal motivation (100%) and adherence (≥100%) constituted 28% of the study population and had a lower percentage of recordings in sinus rhythm (90 [53-100%] vs 100 [64-100%], P&lt;0.001) compared to others. Age and diabetes were predictors of both optimal motivation and adherence (odds ratio [OR] 1.02, 95% coincidence interval [95% CI] 1.01-1.04, P&lt;0.001 and OR, 0.49, 95% CI 0.28-0.86, P=0.013, respectively). Patients with 100% motivation also had ≥100% adherence. Independent predictors for optimal adherence alone were age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.04, P=0.014), female sex (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.29-2.23, P&lt;0.001), previous AF ablation (OR 1.35, 95%CI 1.03-1.07, P=0.028).

Conclusion

In the TeleCheck-AF project, older age and diabetes were predictors of optimal patient motivation and adherence to app-based heart rate/rhythm monitoring. Therefore, physicians, nurses and allied health specialists involved in the management and care for patients with AF should not be discouraged to provide a mHealth infrastructure to elderly patients. Patient engagement improves mHealth adherence/motivation, hence, it is crucial to tailor the mHelath intervention to the needs and preferences of the patient.

Multiple early factors anticipate post-acute COVID-19 sequelae

Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) represent an emerging global crisis. However, quantifiable risk factors for PASC and their biological associations are poorly resolved. We executed a deep multi-omic, longitudinal investigation of 309 COVID-19 patients from initial diagnosis to convalescence (2-3 months later), integrated with clinical data and patient-reported symptoms. We resolved four PASC-anticipating risk factors at the time of initial COVID-19 diagnosis: type 2 diabetes, SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia, Epstein-Barr virus viremia, and specific auto-antibodies. In patients with gastrointestinal PASC, SARS-CoV-2-specific and CMV-specific CD8+ T cells exhibited unique dynamics during recovery from COVID-19. Analysis of symptom-associated immunological signatures revealed coordinated immunity polarization into four endotypes, exhibiting divergent acute severity and PASC. We find that immunological associations between PASC factors diminish over time, leading to distinct convalescent immune states. Detectability of most PASC factors at COVID-19 diagnosis emphasizes the importance of early disease measurements for understanding emergent chronic conditions and suggests PASC treatment strategies.

What can we Learn from Patients who Died from Covid-19 Following Escalation to a Respiratory High Dependency Unit for Trial of Non-Invasive Respiratory Support?

Background: Covid-19 infection is associated with significant risk of death, particularly in older, comorbid patients. Emerging evidence supports use of non-invasive respiratory support (CPAP and high-flow nasal oxygen [HFNO]) in this context, but little is known about its use in patients receiving end-of-life care. Methods: This was a retrospective study of 33 patients who died of Covid-19 on the Respiratory High Dependency Unit at the John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford between 28/03/20 and 20/05/20. Data was sourced via retrospective review of electronic patient records and drug charts. Results: Patients dying from Covid-19 on the Respiratory HDU were comorbid with median Charlson Comorbidity Index 5 (IQR 4-6); median age 78 (IQR 72-85). Respiratory support was trialled in all but one case with CPAP being the most common form of first line respiratory support (84.8%) however, was only tolerated in 44.8% of patients. Median time to death was 10.7 days from symptom onset (IQR 7.5-14.6) and 4.9 days from hospital admission (IQR 3.1-8.3). 48.5% of patients remained on respiratory support at the time of death. Conclusions: End-of-life care for patients with Covid-19 remains a challenge. Patients tend to be frail and comorbid with a rapid disease trajectory. Non-Invasive Respiratory Support may play a key role in symptom management in select patients, however, further work is needed in order to identify patients who will most benefit from Respiratory Support and those for whom withdrawal may prevent unnecessary distress at the end of life or potential prolongation of suffering.

Online psychological interventions to reduce symptoms of depression, anxiety, and general distress in those with chronic health conditions: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Over the past 15 years, there has been substantial growth in web-based psychological interventions. We summarize evidence regarding the efficacy of web-based self-directed psychological interventions on depressive, anxiety and distress symptoms in people living with a chronic health condition.

METHOD

We searched Medline, PsycINFO, CINAHL, EMBASE databases and Cochrane Database from 1990 to 1 May 2019. English language papers of randomized controlled trials (usual care or waitlist control) of web-based psychological interventions with a primary or secondary aim to reduce anxiety, depression or distress in adults with a chronic health condition were eligible. Results were assessed using narrative synthases and random-effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

In total 70 eligible studies across 17 health conditions [most commonly: cancer (k = 20), chronic pain (k = 9), arthritis (k = 6) and multiple sclerosis (k = 5), diabetes (k = 4), fibromyalgia (k = 4)] were identified. Interventions were based on CBT principles in 46 (66%) studies and 42 (60%) included a facilitator. When combining all chronic health conditions, web-based interventions were more efficacious than control conditions in reducing symptoms of depression g = 0.30 (95% CI 0.22-0.39), anxiety g = 0.19 (95% CI 0.12-0.27), and distress g = 0.36 (95% CI 0.23-0.49).

CONCLUSION

Evidence regarding effectiveness for specific chronic health conditions was inconsistent. While self-guided online psychological interventions may help to reduce symptoms of anxiety, depression and distress in people with chronic health conditions in general, it is unclear if these interventions are effective for specific health conditions. More high-quality evidence is needed before definite conclusions can be made.

Patient and public involvement in a UK National Institute for Health Research Programme Grant for Applied Research: experiences from the Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study (CHESS)

BACKGROUND

Patient and public involvement (PPI) plays a crucial role in ensuring research is carried out in conjunction with the people that it will impact upon. In this article, we present our experiences and reflections from working collaboratively with patients and public through the lifetime of an National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) programme grant; the Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study (CHESS) which took place between 2015 and 2020.

PPI OVER THE COURSE OF CHESS

We worked closely with three leading UK migraine charities and a lay advisory group throughout the programme. We followed NIHR standards and used the Guidance for Reporting Involvement of Patients and the Public checklist. We consulted our PPI contacts using a variety of methods depending on the phase of the study and the nature of the request. This included emails, discussions, and face-to-face contact.PPI members contributed throughout the study in the programme development, in the grant application, ethics documentation, and trial oversight. During the feasibility study; in supporting the development of a classification interview for chronic headache by participating in a headache classification conference, assessing the relevance, and acceptability of patient-reported outcome measures by helping to analyse cognitive interview data, and testing the smartphone application making suggestions on how best to present the summary of data collected for participants. Due to PPI contribution, the content and duration of the study intervention were adapted and a Delphi study with consensus meeting developed a core outcome set for migraine studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The involvement of the public and patients in CHESS has allowed us to shape its overall design, intervention development, and establish a core outcome set for future migraine studies. We have reflected on many learning points for the future application of PPI.

"Poison" or "protection"? A mixed methods exploration of Australian parents' COVID-19 vaccination intentions

OBJECTIVE

The success of COVID-19 vaccination programs relies on community attitudes, yet little is known about parents' views. We aimed to explore the reasons behind Australian parents' vaccine intentions for themselves and for their children.

METHOD

This mixed methods study relates to Wave 13 (January 2021) of a longitudinal study of Australian parents' experiences during COVID-19 and contained 1094 participants (83% mothers). We used multinomial logistic regression to understand demographic predictors of vaccine intention, and a descriptive template thematic analysis to analyse open-ended questions about parents' reasons for vaccine intentions for themselves and their children.

RESULTS

64% of Australian parents intend on vaccination, 26% are unsure and 9% intend to decline; 48% intend to vaccinate their children, 38% are unsure, and 14% intend to decline. Relative to those intending to vaccinate, parents unsure (OR = -0.63, 95% CI: 0.46, -0.84, p = .002) or not intending (OR = -0.41, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.67 p < .001) to vaccinate were more likely to have lower trust in doctors. Similar predictors emerged for parents who did not intend to vaccinate their children (OR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.31, 0.70, p < .001). Qualitative data indicated that many parents had not made a firm decision, including a lack of alignment between intentions and reasons. For example, parents who said 'yes' to vaccination, often then expressed hesitance and a focus on risks in their written response. Reasons for hesitancy for themselves included concerns about testing, side effects, and long-term outcomes. Similar themes were present for children, but parents expressed a strong desire to protect their children, and an eagerness for health information.

CONCLUSION

Based on prior research and the themes identified here, a multipronged campaign that includes education/promotion, good access to vaccines and role models, is likely to support parents to make informed decisions regarding COVID-19 vaccination.

OP0147 RHEUMATIC? - A DIGITAL DIAGNOSTIC DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR INDIVIDUALS SUSPECTING RHEUMATIC DISEASES: A MULTICENTER VALIDATION STUDY

Background:

Digital diagnostic decision support tools promise to accelerate diagnosis and increase health care efficiency in rheumatology. Rheumatic? is an online tool developed by specialists in rheumatology and general medicine together with patients and patient organizations for individuals suspecting a rheumatic disease.1,2 The tool can be used by people suspicious for rheumatic diseases resulting in individual advise on eventually seeking further health care.

Objectives:

We tested Rheumatic? for its ability to differentiate symptoms from immune-mediated diseases from other rheumatic and musculoskeletal complaints and disorders in patients visiting rheumatology clinics.

Methods:

The performance of Rheumatic? was tested using data from 175 patients from three university rheumatology centers covering two different settings:

A.Risk-RA phase setting. Here, we tested whether Rheumatic? could predict the development of arthritis in 50 at risk-individuals with musculoskeletal complaints and anti-citrullinated protein antibody positivity from the KI (Karolinska Institutet)

B.Early arthritis setting. Here, we tested whether Rheumatic? could predict the development of an immune-mediated rheumatic disease in i) EUMC (Erlangen) n=52 patients and ii) LUMC (Leiden) n=73 patients.

In each setting, we examined the discriminative power of the total score with the Wilcoxon rank test and the area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).

Results:

In setting A, the total test score clearly differentiated between individuals developing arthritis or not, median 245 versus 163, P < 0.0001, AUC-ROC = 75.3 (Figure 1). Also within patients with arthritis the Rheumatic? total score was significantly higher in patients developing an immune-mediated arthritic disease versus those who did not: median score EUMC 191 versus 107, P < 0.0001, AUC-ROC = 79.0, and LUMC 262 versus 212, P < 0.0001, AUC-ROC = 53.6.

Figure 1.

(Area under) the receiver operating curve for the total Rheumatic? score

Conclusion:

Rheumatic? is a web-based patient-centered multilingual diagnostic tool capable of differentiating immune-mediated rheumatic conditions from other musculoskeletal problems. A following subject of research is how the tool performs in a population-wide setting.

References:

[1]Knitza J. et al. Mobile Health in Rheumatology: A Patient Survey Study Exploring Usage, Preferences, Barriers and eHealth Literacy. JMIR mHealth and uHealth. 2020.

[2]https://rheumatic.elsa.science/en/

Acknowledgements:

This project has received funding from EIT Health. EIT Health is supported by the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), a body of the European Union that receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program.

This project has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 777357, RTCure.

Disclosure of Interests:

Rachel Knevel: None declared, Johannes Knitza: None declared, Aase Hensvold: None declared, Alexandra Circiumaru: None declared, Tor Bruce Employee of: Ocean Observations, Sebastian Evans Employee of: Elsa Science, Tjardo Maarseveen: None declared, Marc Maurits: None declared, Liesbeth Beaart- van de Voorde: None declared, David Simon: None declared, Arnd Kleyer: None declared, Martina Johannesson: None declared, Georg Schett: None declared, Thomas Huizinga: None declared, Sofia Svanteson Employee of: Elsa Science, Alexandra Lindfors Employee of: Ocean Observations, Lars Klareskog: None declared, Anca Catrina: None declared

Can we reduce the stigmatisation experience with psychosocial interventions? An investigation of the meeting centre support programme impact on people with cognitive impairments

Introduction

People living with dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) experience stigmatisation and there are not many specific psychosocial interventions dedicated to help them coping with this issue, reducing its impact on their lives.

Objectives

This study aimed to a) investigate the stigmatisation level among people with dementia and MCI in Poland, Italy and the United Kingdom and b) assess the role of the Meeting Centre Support Programme (MCSP) in decreasing stigmatisation.

Methods

We investigated outcomes for 114 people with dementia and MCI living in Italy, Poland and the UK who participated 6 months in MCSP or usual care (UC) using a pre/post-test control group study design. Level of stigmatisation was assessed with the Stigma Impact Scale: neurological impairment (SIS).

Results

Stigmatisation level (SIS) among participants varied from 2 to 65 (median=33.5; Q1=27; Q3=41) with people from the UK experiencing a statistically significantly higher level of stigmatisation than people in Italy and Poland. In Italy, stigmatisation was lower (p=0.02) in the MCSP group following the intervention. In Poland, the social isolation level did not significantly change in MCSP, but increased (p=0.05) in UC. In the UK, the social rejection level raised (p=0.03) in MCSP. Overall, the combined data of the three countries did not show statistically significant differences in SIS between MCSP and UC.

Conclusions

Stigmatisation among people with dementia and MCI is complex and seems culturally dependent. There is a great opportunity in psychosocial interventions to reduce the burden of stigma among people with dementia which requires further investigation.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on mental health, wellbeing, sleep, and alcohol use in a UK student sample

The COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent restrictions imposed by governments worldwide have had profound social and psychological effects, particularly for young adults. This study used longitudinal data to characterise effects on mental health and behaviour in a UK student sample, measuring sleep quality and diurnal preference, depression and anxiety symptoms, wellbeing and loneliness, and alcohol use. Self-report data was collected from 254 undergraduates (219 females) at a UK university at two-time points: autumn 2019 (baseline, pre-pandemic) and April/May 2020 (under 'lockdown' conditions).  Longitudinal analyses showed a significant rise in depression symptoms and a reduction in wellbeing at lockdown. Over a third of the sample could be classed as clinically depressed at lockdown compared to 15% at baseline. Sleep quality was not affected across the sample as a whole. The increase in depression symptoms was highly correlated with worsened sleep quality. A reduction in alcohol use, and a significant shift towards an 'evening' diurnal preference, were also observed. Levels of worry surrounding contracting COVID-19 were high. Results highlight the urgent need for strategies to support young people's mental health: alleviating worries around contracting COVID, and supporting good sleep quality, could benefit young adults' mental health as the COVID-19 crisis unfolds.

Indeterminate pulmonary nodules are not associated with worse overall survival in Ewing Sarcoma

AIM

Lung metastases are a negative prognostic factor in Ewing sarcoma, however, the incidence and significance of sub-centimetre pulmonary nodules at diagnosis is unclear. The aims of this study were to (1): determine the incidence of indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) in patients diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma (2); establish the impact of IPNs on overall and metastasis-free survival and (3) identify patient, oncological and radiological factors that correlate with poorer prognosis in patients that present with IPNs on their staging chest CT.

MATERIALS & METHODS

Between 2008 and 2016, 173 patients with a first presentation of Ewing sarcoma of bone were retrospectively identified from an institutional database. Staging and follow-up chest CTs for all patients with IPN were reviewed by a senior radiologist. Clinical and radiologic course were examined to determine overall- and metastasis-free survival for IPN patients and to identify demographic, oncological or nodule-specific features that predict which IPN represent true lung metastases.

RESULTS

Following radiologic re-review, IPN were found in 8.7% of patients. Overall survival for IPN patients was comparable to those with a normal staging chest CT (2-year overall survival of 73.3% [95% CI 43.6-89] and 89.4% [95% CI 81.6-94], respectively; p = 0.34) and was significantly better than for patients with clear metastases (46.0% [95% CI 31.9-59]; p < 0.0001). Similarly, there was no difference in metastasis-free survival between 'No Metastases' and 'IPN' patients (p = 0.16). Lung metastases developed in 40% of IPN patients at a median 9.6 months. Reduction of nodule size on neoadjuvant chemotherapy was associated with worse overall survival in IPN patients (p = 0.0084).

CONCLUSION

IPN are not uncommon in patients diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma. In this study, we were unable to detect a difference in overall- or metastasis-free survival between patients with IPN at diagnosis and patients with normal staging chest CTs.

Association between light exposure and metabolic syndrome in a rural Brazilian town

Context

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a complex condition comprising a ‘clustering’ of components representing cardiometabolic risk factors for heart disease and diabetes; its prevalence rate is high and consequences serious. Evidence suggests that light exposure patterns and misalignment of circadian rhythms might contribute to MetS etiology by impacting energy metabolism and glucose regulation.

Objective

We hypothesised that individuals with MetS would show disrupted circadian and sleep parameters alongside differences in light exposure profiles. We investigated this using data from a cohort study in Brazil.

Methods

Data from 103 individuals from the Baependi Heart Cohort Study aged between 50 and 70 were analysed. Motor activity and light exposure were measured using wrist-worn actigraphy devices. Cardiometabolic data were used to calculate the number of MetS components present in each participant, and participants grouped as MetS/non-MetS according to standard guidelines. Between-group comparisons were made for the actigraphy measures; additionally, correlation analyses were conducted.

Results

Motor activity and circadian profiles showed no differences between groups. However, the MetS group presented lower light exposure during the day and higher light exposure at night. Correlation analyses, including all participants, showed that greater daytime light exposure and greater light exposure difference between day and night were associated with reduced MetS risk (a lower number of MetS components). Also, the light exposure difference between day and night correlated with body mass index across all participants.

Conclusions

The observed results suggest a direct association between light exposure and MetS which appears to not be attributable to disruptions in circadian activity rhythm nor to sleep parameters. This link between light exposure patterns and MetS risk could inform possible prevention strategies.

Implementation of a clinical pathway for the surgical treatment of colorectal cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic

AIM

This report summarizes the early experience of implementing elective colorectal cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A pathway to minimize the risk of including COVID-19-positive patients for elective surgery was established. Prioritization and additional safety measures were introduced into clinical practice. Minimal invasive surgery was used where appropriate.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight patients were prioritized, and 23 patients underwent surgery (eight colon, 14 rectal and one anal cancer). The minimal invasive surgery rate was 78%. There were no major postoperative complications or patients diagnosed with COVID-19. Histopathological outcomes were similar to normal practice.

CONCLUSION

A safe pathway to offer standard high-quality surgery to colorectal cancer patients during the COVID-19 pandemic is feasible.

Binocular Vision, Visual Function, and Pupil Dynamics in People Living With Dementia and Their Relation to the Rate of Cognitive Decline and Structural Changes Within the Brain: Protocol for an Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Visual impairment is a common comorbidity in people living with dementia. Addressing sources of visual difficulties can have a significant impact on the quality of life for people living with dementia and their caregivers. Depth perception problems are purportedly common in dementia and also contribute to falls, visuomotor task difficulties, and poorer psychosocial well-being. However, depth perception and binocular vision are rarely assessed in dementia research. Sleep fragmentation is also common for people living with dementia, and binocular cooperation for depth perception can be affected by fatigue. Pupillary responses under cognitive load also have the potential to be a risk marker for cognitive decline in people living with dementia and can be combined with the above measures for a comprehensive evaluation of clinical visual changes in people living with dementia and their relation to changes in cognitive status, sleep quality, and cortical structure or function.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to characterize the nature of clinical visual changes and altered task-evoked pupillary responses that may occur in people living with dementia and evaluate whether these responses relate to changes in cognitive status (standardized Mini Mental State Examination [MMSE] score), Pittsburgh sleep quality index, and cortical structure or function.

METHODS

This proposed exploratory observational study will enroll ≤210 people with recently diagnosed dementia (within the last 24 months). The following parameters will be assessed on 3 occasions, 4 months apart (plus or minus 2 weeks): visual function (visual acuity and contrast sensitivity), binocular function (motor fusion and stereopsis), task-evoked pupillary responses (minimum and maximum pupil size, time to maximum dilation, and dilation velocity), cognitive status (MMSE score), and sleep quality (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index). A subset of patients (n=30) with Alzheimer disease will undergo structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging at first and third visits, completing a 10-day consensus sleep diary to monitor sleep quality, verified by sleep actimetry.

RESULTS

This research was funded in February 2018 and received National Health Service Research Ethics Committee approval in September 2018. The data collection period was from October 1, 2018, to November 30, 2019. A total of 24 participants were recruited for the study. The data analysis is complete, with results expected to be published before the end of 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings will demonstrate how often people with dementia experience binocular vision problems. If frequent, diagnosing and treating them could improve quality of life by reducing the risk of falls and fine visuomotor task impairment and by relieving psychosocial anxiety. This research will also demonstrate whether changes in depth perception, pupillary responses, and quality of vision relate to changes in memory or sleep quality and brain structure or function. If related, these quick and noninvasive eye tests help monitor dementia. This would help justify whether binocular vision and pupillary response testing should be included in dementia-friendly eye-testing guidelines.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR1-10.2196/16089.

Low availability of code in ecology: A call for urgent action

Access to analytical code is essential for transparent and reproducible research. We review the state of code availability in ecology using a random sample of 346 nonmolecular articles published between 2015 and 2019 under mandatory or encouraged code-sharing policies. Our results call for urgent action to increase code availability: only 27% of eligible articles were accompanied by code. In contrast, data were available for 79% of eligible articles, highlighting that code availability is an important limiting factor for computational reproducibility in ecology. Although the percentage of ecological journals with mandatory or encouraged code-sharing policies has increased considerably, from 15% in 2015 to 75% in 2020, our results show that code-sharing policies are not adhered to by most authors. We hope these results will encourage journals, institutions, funding agencies, and researchers to address this alarming situation.

Publication of the analytical code underlying a scientific study is increasingly expected or even mandated by journals, allowing others to reproduce the results. However, a survey of more than 300 recently published ecology papers finds the majority have no code publicly available, handicapping efforts to improve scientific transparency.

Older people's perspectives on living in integrated housing and care settings: the case of extra care housing

Purpose

This paper explores residents' perceptions and experiences of extra care housing as an integrated model of housing with care.

Design/methodology/approach

Data were collected in a longitudinal qualitative study based on four extra care housing schemes. Data from interviews with residents, care workers, managers and local commissioners were analysed thematically.

Findings

The integration of housing with care enabled many older people to manage their care proactively. However, the increasing number of residents with complex health and care needs, including chronic illness, led some residents to question the ability of the model to support residents to live independently.

Research limitations/implications

The study struggled to recruit sufficient residents from the specialist dementia setting who were able to communicate their consent to take part in the research. In addition, the quality of qualitative data collected in interviews with participants at this setting reduced over successive rounds of interviews.

Practical implications

The study suggests the need to ensure that residents are fully informed about levels of care and support is available when considering a move into extra care housing.

Originality/value

This paper provides a timely opportunity to consider extra care housing as an example of an integrated housing service, particularly in light of the current challenges facing the sector.

'You have got to stick to your times': Care workers and managers' experiences of working in extra care housing

Extra care housing (ECH) has been lauded as an innovative model of housing with care for older people that promotes and supports independent living. The study used a qualitative design to explore how care is delivered in four extra care settings in England over 20 months during 2016-2017. This paper reports findings from semi-structured interviews with 20 care workers and seven managers. The article argues that, despite being heralded as a new model, care workers in ECH face similar organisational pressures as those working in more conventional settings and, in turn, the care which they are able to provide to residents mimics traditional forms of care.

Clarifying the role of belief-motive explanations in multi-stakeholder realist evaluation

In realist evaluation, where researchers aim to make program theories explicit, they can encounter competing explanations as to how programs work. Managing explanatory tensions from different sources of evidence in multi-stakeholder projects can challenge external evaluators, especially when access to pertinent data, like client records, is mediated by program stakeholders. In this article, we consider two central questions: how can program stakeholder motives shape a realist evaluation project; and how might realist evaluators respond to stakeholders' belief-motive explanations, including those about program effectiveness, based on factors such as supererogatory commitment or trying together in good faith? Drawing on our realist evaluation of a service reform initiative involving multiple agencies, we describe stakeholder motives at key phases, highlighting a need for tactics and skills that help to manage explanatory tensions. In conclusion, the relevance of stakeholders' belief-motive explanations ('we believe the program works') in realist evaluation is clarified and discussed.

A systematic review of structural MRI investigations within borderline personality disorder: Identification of key psychological variables of interest going forward

Existing models of Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) suggest that a combination of genetic vulnerability, childhood trauma, and disrupted attachment can lead to the marked emotional lability, impulsivity and interpersonal difficulties observed clinically. Brain structural differences in frontal, limbic and hippocampal regions have been reported in BPD. Less clear is how specific psychological factors relate to these structural differences, and how consistently this is found across studies. This was the focus of the present review. Eighteen studies published between 2004 and 2018 met inclusion criteria encompassing 990 participants. Study quality was assessed using the Nottingham-Ottawa Scale. We also introduce a newly devised scale to assess MRI reporting quality. The most frequently investigated psychological variable were impulsivity (9 studies), depression (8), trauma (6), aggression (6), severity of symptoms (3), global functioning, abuse and dissociation (2). Study quality varied, however, a trend was observed where newer studies were higher in reporting quality. Impulsivity demonstrated greater association with frontal structures, trauma related to the hypothalamus and limbic systems, and aggression with hippocampal and frontal structures. The present review recommends greater exploration of neurocognitive and psychosis-related features such as delusions, paranoia and voice-hearing in future studies, and to investigate cortical changes in longitudinal designs.

Anterior translation of the tibia in relation to femur in mucoid degeneration of ACL - An observational study

Background

Mucoid degeneration (MD) of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) are a well-known pathological entity.We have encountered several patients with MD of the ACL, found to have a anterior translation of tibia a exceeding 5 mm with an intact ACL. We studied this cohort and investigated the likely cause of this.

Methods

A retrospective search of our department's radiology system to identify all patients referred from the knee orthopaedic clinic for MR imaging over a span of 10 years. All patients had MD within the substance of the ACL and an intact ACL. We evaluated the degree of anterior translation of the tibia (ATT) in relation to the femur in mucoid degeneration of ACL.

Results

We identified 464 consecutive cases. The mean age was 52 years. There was a male predominance of 261 to 203 female. The average PTF measurement was 2.4 mm with a range of 0-20mm. Of the 464 cases, 3 397 patients had an insignificant ATT of < 5 mm. (0mm. 67. 67 67 patients had a ATT >5 mm. Of them, 32.8% had a ATT of 6 mm, 53.7% had a ATT range between 7 and 9 mm, with the remaining 13.4% above 9 mm in length.

Conclusion

It is essential to look for other secondary signs of ACL tears and not only focus on ATT as well as correlate this with clinical findings.

The impact of the implementation of the Dutch combined Meeting Centres Support Programme for family caregivers of people with dementia in Italy, Poland and UK

Objectives: The MEETINGDEM research project aimed to implement the combined Dutch Meeting Centre Support Programme (MCSP) for community-dwelling people with dementia and caregivers within Italy, Poland and UK and to assess whether comparable benefits were found in these countries as in the Netherlands.Method: Nine pilot Meeting Centres (MCs) participated (Italy-5, Poland-2, UK-2). Effectiveness of MCSP was compared to usual care (UC) on caregiver outcomes measuring competence (SSCQ), mental health (GHQ-12), emotional distress (NPI-Q) and loneliness (UCLA) analysed by ANCOVAs in a 6-month pre-test/post-test controlled trial. Interviews using standardised measures were completed with caregivers.Results: Pre/post data were collected for 93 caregivers receiving MCSP and 74 receiving UC. No statistically significant differences on the outcome measures were found overall. At a country level MC caregivers in Italy showed significant better general mental health (p = 0.04, d = 0.55) and less caregiver distress (p = 0.02, d = 0.62) at post-test than the UC group. Caregiver satisfaction was rated on a sample at 3 months (n = 81) and 6 months (n = 84). The majority of caregivers reported feeling less burdened and more supported by participating in MCSP.Conclusion: The moderate positive effect on sense of competence and the greater mental health benefit for lonely caregivers using the MCSP compared to UC as found in the original Dutch studies were not replicated. However, subject to study limitations, caregivers in Italy using MCSP benefitted more regarding their mental health and emotional distress than caregivers using UC. Further evaluation of the benefits of MCSP within these countries in larger study samples is recommended.

Unhatched eggs represent the invisible fraction in two wild bird populations

Prenatal mortality is typically overlooked in population studies, which biases evolutionary inference by confounding selection and inheritance. Birds represent an opportunity to include this ‘invisible fraction’ if each egg contains a zygote, but whether hatching failure is caused by fertilization failure versus prenatal mortality is largely unknown. We quantified fertilization failure rates in two bird species that are popular systems for studying evolutionary dynamics and found that overwhelming majorities (99.9%) of laid eggs were fertilized. These systems thus present opportunities to eliminate the invisible fraction from life-history data.