Health risk assessment of soil heavy metals in a typical mining town in north China based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with Positive matrix factorization model

The accumulation of heavy metals (HMs) in soil caused by mineral resource exploitation and its ancillary industrial processes poses a threat to ecology and public health. Effective risk control measures require a quantification of the impacts and contributions to health risks from individual sources of soil HMs. Based on high-density sampling, soil contamination risk indexes, positive matrix factorization (PMF) model, Monte Carlo simulation and human health risk analysis model were applied to investigate the risk of HMs in a typical mining town in North China. The results showed that As was the most dominant soil pollutant factor, Cd and Hg were the most dominant soil ecological risk factors, and Cr and Ni were the most dominant health risk factors in the study area. Overall, both pollution and ecological risks were at low levels, while there were still some higher hazard areas located in the central and south-central part of the region. According to the probabilistic health risk assessment (HRA), children suffered greater health risks than adults, with 21.63% of non-carcinogenic risks and 53.24% of carcinogenic risks exceeding the prescribed thresholds (HI > 1 and TCR>1E-4). The PMF model identified five potential sources: fuel combustion (FC), processing of building materials with limestone as raw materials (PBML), industry source (IS), iron ore mining combined with garbage (IOG), and agriculture source (AS). PBML is the primary source of soil HM contamination, as well as the major anthropogenic source of carcinogenic risk for all populations. Agricultural inputs associated with As are the major source of non-carcinogenic risk. This study offers a good example of probabilistic HRA using specific sources, which can provide a valuable reference for strategy establishment of pollution remediation and risk prevention and control.

Spatial distribution pattern and health risk of groundwater contamination by cadmium, manganese, lead and nitrate in groundwater of an arid area

Combining the results of base models to create a meta-model is one of the ensemble approaches known as stacking. In this study, stacking of five base learners, including eXtreme gradient boosting, random forest, feed-forward neural networks, generalized linear models with Lasso or Elastic Net regularization, and support vector machines, was used to study the spatial variation of Mn, Cd, Pb, and nitrate in Qom-Kahak Aquifers, Iran. The stacking strategy proved to be an effective substitute predictor for existing machine learning approaches due to its high accuracy and stability when compared to individual learners. Contrarily, there was not any best-performing base model for all of the involved parameters. For instance, in the case of cadmium, random forest produced the best results, with adjusted R2 and RMSE of 0.108 and 0.014, as opposed to 0.337 and 0.013 obtained by the stacking method. The Mn and Cd showed a tight link with phosphate by the redundancy analysis (RDA). This demonstrates the effect of phosphate fertilizers on agricultural operations. In order to analyze the causes of groundwater pollution, spatial methodologies can be used with multivariate analytic techniques, such as RDA, to help uncover hidden sources of contamination that would otherwise go undetected. Lead has a larger health risk than nitrate, according to the probabilistic health risk assessment, which found that 34.4% and 6.3% of the simulated values for children and adults, respectively, were higher than HQ = 1. Furthermore, cadmium exposure risk affected 84% of children and 47% of adults in the research area.

Investigating spatial distribution of fluoride in groundwater with respect to hydro-geochemical characteristics and associated probabilistic health risk in Baruipur block of West Bengal, India

Fluoride (F^-) enrichment in groundwater of the lower Gangetic plain in West Bengal, India is a major concern. Fluoride contamination and its toxicity were reported earlier in this region; however, limited evidence was available on the precise site of contamination, hydro-geochemical attributions of F^- mobilization and probabilistic health risk caused by fluoridated groundwater. The present study addresses the research gap by exploring the spatial distribution and physico-chemical parameters of fluoridated groundwater along with the depth-wise sedimental distribution of F^-. Approximately, 10 % of the groundwater samples (n = 824) exhibited high F^- ≥ 1.5 mg/l from 5, out of 19 gram-panchayats and Baruipur municipality area and the maximum F^- was observed in Dhapdhapi-II gram-panchayat with 43.7 % of samples showed ≥1.5 mg/l (n = 167). The distribution patterns of cations and anions in fluoridated groundwater were Na⁺ > Ca²⁺ > Mg²⁺ > Fe > K⁺ and Cl^- > HCO₃^- > SO₄^2- > CO₃^2- > NO₃^- > F^-. Different statistical models like Piper and Gibbs diagram, Chloro Alkaline plot, Saturation index were applied to better understand the hydro-geochemical characteristics for F^- leaching in groundwater. Fluoridated groundwater is of Na-Cl type which implies strong saline character. The intermediate zone between evaporation and rock dominance area controls F^- mobilization along with ion-exchange process occurring between groundwater and host silicate mineral. Furthermore, saturation index proves geogenic activities related to groundwater F^- mobilization. All cations present in sediment samples are closely interlinked with F^- in the depth range of 0-18.3 m. Mineralogical analyses revealed that muscovite is the most responsible mineral for F^- mobilization. The probabilistic health risk assessment disclosed severe health hazard in the order of infants > adults > children > teenagers through F^- tainted groundwater. At P95 percentile dose, all the studied age groups showed THQ >1 from Dhapdhapi-II gram-panchayat. Supply of F^- safe drinking water is required through reliable water supply strategies in the studied area.

Spatiotemporal distribution and probabilistic health risk assessment of arsenic in drinking water and wheat in Northwest China

Drinking water arsenic poisoning has been a health concern, however the importance of dietary arsenic exposure to health also needs to be taken into account. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive health risk assessment of arsenic-contaminated substances in drinking water and wheat-based food intake in the Guanzhong Plain, China. 87 samples of wheat and 150 samples of water were randomly selected from the research region and examined. The level of arsenic in 89.33% of the water samples in the region exceeded the limit for drinking water (10 μg/L), with an average concentration of 29.98 μg/L. The arsenic in 2.13% of the wheat samples exceeded the food limit (0.5 mg/kg) with an average concentration of 0.24 mg/kg. Under the situation of different exposure pathways, two scenarios of deterministic and probabilistic health risk assessments were compared and analyzed. By contrast, the probabilistic health risk assessment can ensure a certain degree of confidence in the assessment results. The findings of this study indicated that the total cancer risk value faced by the population aged 3-79 years, except for those aged 4-6 years, was 1.03E-4-1.21E-3, which exceeded the 10E-6-10E-4 range of thresholds usually used by USEPA as guidance recommendations for determination. And the non-cancer risk experienced by the population aged 6 months to 79 years was higher than the acceptable threshold (1), with children aged 9 months to 1 year having the highest total non-cancer risk of 7.25. The potential health risks of the exposed population were mainly due to the drinking water route, and consumption of arsenic-containing wheat increased both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. Finally, the sensitivity analysis revealed that the assessment findings were most significantly influenced by exposure time. The amount of intake was the second influencing factor in the health risk assessment from drinking water and dietary intakes of arsenic, and arsenic concentration was the second influencing factor in the health risk assessment due to dermal exposure to arsenic. The findings of this study can aid in understanding the negative health consequences of arsenic pollution to local residents and in adopting focused remediation strategies to alleviate environmental concerns.

An integrated approach for quantifying source apportionment and source-oriented health risk of heavy metals in soils near an old industrial area

Soil contamination of heavy metals (HMs) caused by the long-term industrial activities has become a major environmental issue due to its adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. In this paper, 50 soil samples were analyzed to evaluate the contamination characteristics, source apportionment and source-oriented health risk of HMs in soils near an old industrial area in NE China by applying an integrated approach of Pearson correlation analysis, Positive matrix factorization (PMF) model and Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the mean concentrations of all HMs greatly exceeded the soil background values (SBV), and the surface soils in the study area were heavily polluted with HMs, displaying a very high ecological risk. The toxic HMs emitted from the bullet production were identified as the primary source of HMs contamination in soils, with a contribution rate of 33.3%. The human health risk assessment (HHRA) suggested that the Hazard quotient (HQ) values of all HMs for children and adults are within the acceptable risk level (HQ < 1). The carcinogenic risk (CR) values of HMs for children and adults significantly exceeded the acceptable threshold of 1E-6 with a basic trend: As > Pb > Cr > Co > Ni, indicating a high cancer risk. For source-oriented health risk, the CR of four pollution sources for children and adults shows a same trend: Factor 4 > Factor 3 > Factor 2 > Factor 1. Among those, the source of HMs pollution from bullet production is the largest contributor to cancer risk, and As and Pb are the most important HMs pollutants that cause cancer risk to humans. The present study sheds some light on the contamination characteristics, source apportionment and source-health risk assessment of HMs in industrially contaminated soils, which helps improve the management of environmental risk control, prevention and remediation.

Seasonal and source characteristics of organophosphorus flame retardants in air and house dust in Taiwan residential microenvironments: Implications for young children's exposure and risk assessment using a probabilistic approach

Organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) are prevalent in multiple industries. They have gradually replaced brominated flame retardants in recent years. Eleven OPFRs were collected from indoor air and house dust in two primary activity spaces--bedrooms and living rooms. The aim of the present study was to explore the potential sources of, and health risks associated with, OPFR exposure in young children using integrated and probabilistic approaches. The level of 11 indoor air OPFRs (466 ng/m³) in the bedroom was greater than that measured in the living room (379 ng/m³), and these values contrasted with those detected in dust. The air OPFRs in the warmer season were higher than those measured in the cold season; the inverse was true for those detected in house dust. In both activity spaces, the composition profiles indicated that tris(1-chloro-2-propyl)phosphate in indoor air (39%) and tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate in house dust (67%) were the dominant congeners. The average daily exposure dose (ADD) of OPFRs via air inhalation and dust ingestion did not differ significantly between preschool and school-aged children or based on sex. The Monte-Carlo-simulated 95th percentile ADD of the OPFRs in dust ingested by preschool children was 1.4 times higher. The OPFR exposure from air inhalation and dust ingestion in Taiwanese children is currently an acceptable non-carcinogenic risk and a negligible carcinogenic risk to Taiwan residents.

Volatile organic compounds in water matrices: Recent progress, challenges, and perspective

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are a group of organic compounds that have a molecular structure containing carbon and their chemical properties allow them to be easily converted to steam and gas and remain for a long period of time and have diverse effects on the environment. The purpose of this study is determination of the concentration of VOCs such as alachlor, anthracene, benzene, bromoform, chloroform, heptachlor, isophorone, tetrachloroethylene, γ -chlordane, toluene, etc. in water matrices. The results showed that among studies conducted on VOCs, the concentration of tetrachloroethylene, m,p-xylene, and toluene were at the top in water matrices, and the lowest average concentrations were found in chloroform, anthracene, and butyl benzyl phthalate. In terms of VOC concentrations in water matrices, China was the most polluted country. Moreover, the data analysis indicated that China was the only country with carcinogenic risk. A Monte-Carlo simulation showed that although the averages obtained were comparable to the acceptable limits, for heptachlor, the maximum carcinogenic risk is achieved at a level that is slightly over the limit, only 25% from the population being exposed.

Risk assessment of organophosphorus pesticide residues in drinking water resources: Statistical and Monte-Carlo approach

A large part of the world's agricultural production, despite its adverse effects on human health and water resources, depends on the use of pesticides. Despite strict regulations, the use of pesticides continues around the world. This study aimed to determine the residual concentrations of malathion and diazinon in samples of drinking water resources. To achieve this goal, 384 samples from 8 various sites from January to December 2020 were analyzed using gas chromatography (GC) with an electron capture detector (ECD) and liquid-liquid extraction technique. Besides, statistical analysis and a risk-modeling approach supported by an automatic Monte-Carlo procedure were applied. The results showed that there is a high carcinogenic risk regarding malathion and that the low age population is at the most non-carcinogenic risk regarding diazinon.

Bioavailability and health risk of toxic heavy metals (As, Hg, Pb and Cd) in urban soils: A Monte Carlo simulation approach

Toxic heavy metals pollution in urban soil has become a major global issue due to its adverse effects on the environment and human health. In this paper, 26 soil samples were analyzed to assess the speciation, bioavailability and human health risk of Arsenic (As), Mercury (Hg), Lead (Pb) and Cadmium (Cd) in urban soils of a heavy industrial city in NE China by using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. The results showed that As, Hg, Pb and Cd concentrations in the soil all exceed the corresponding background value of study area. Mercury displays the highest value of geo-accumulation index (Igeo), followed by Cd, Pb and As. The pollution load index (PLI) value (>2) indicates a moderate pollution level in the study area. The chemical speciation of HMs mainly exists in residual fraction except Cd. The probabilistic health risk assessment demonstrated that the mean values of Total Carcinogenic Risk (TCR) and Hazard Index (HI) calculated with total concentration are at the unacceptable level, with a higher risk to children than adults. However, the mean values calculated with bioavailable fraction are all within the acceptable level. The mean value of TCR and HI obtained by bioavailable fraction is about 96% and 95% lower than that obtained by total concentration, respectively. Thus, this study suggested that the bioavailable fraction of HMs is a more reliable parameter for health risk assessment, while the total concentration of HMs can overestimate the true risk. The results of this study provide some insight into the speciation, bioavailability and health risks of toxic heavy metals in urban soils in those heavy industrial cities.

Source-specific health risks apportionment of soil potential toxicity elements combining multiple receptor models with Monte Carlo simulation

Understanding the source-specific human health risk of soil potential toxicity elements (PTEs) for human is beneficial for pollution control and risk prevention. Multivariate statistics, absolute principal component score/multiple linear regression (APCS/MLR) model, positive matrix factorization (PMF) model, and GIS mapping were used to identify and apportion the sources of soil PTEs in typical mining and industrial area, southwestern China. Furthermore, source-specific health risks were apportioned by combining source apportionment with probabilistic health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation which can define the probability that the risk exceed the guideline threshold value. The pollution factor and geo-accumulation index indicated that the soils were polluted by soil PTEs to different degrees. In particular, As and Cd were the primary pollutants. Mixed sources, agricultural activities, mining activities, and As-related smelting activities represented the potential sources of soil PTEs, with the contribution of 30.13%, 25.78%, 22.93%, and 21.16%, respectively. Source-specific probabilistic health risks indicated that As-related smelting activities contributed the most to non-carcinogenic risks (adults: 59.03%, children: 57.20%) and carcinogenic risks (adults: 81.82%; children 92.33%), despite the observation that it contributed the least to the accumulation of soil PTEs (21.16%). Non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk showed similar trend for children and adults. Therefore, As-related smelting activities were regarded as the priority source of soil PTEs, and corresponding prevention and control strategies should be implemented to protect human health.

A global systematic review on the concentration of organophosphate esters in water resources: Meta-analysis, and probabilistic risk assessment

Organophosphate esters (OPEs) are used as additives in various industries. They do not chemically bond with the polymeric structure of materials, so they can stay for a long time and have a very adverse effect on the environment. To analyze the development of the prevalence and concentration of OPEs such as TCEP, TCPP, TDCP, TnBP, TPHP, TBOEP, TEHP, TMP, TCIPP, TDCIPP, TMPP, and TDBPP in water resources, a search between January 01, 2000, to April 08, 2021, was followed by a systematic review and meta-analysis. Among of the 888 articles scanned in the identity step, 58 articles containing 2676 samples, 10 countries, and 4 water types were included in the meta-analysis study. Among all studied OPEs, the concentration of TcrP, TCPP, TDCPP, and TnBP were at the top in water resources, with values >715 μg L^-1 and lowest average concentrations were obtained for TDBPP and TpeP with values <0.0004 μg L^-1. The most polluted area in terms of the concentration of OPEs in water resources was China. Besides, data analysis showed that there only was carcinogenic risk for China. A Monte-Carlo simulation indicated that although these obtained averages are in the same order of magnitude as the acceptable limit, for both adults and children, 95% of the population is at risk.

The concentration of persistent organic pollutants in water resources: A global systematic review, meta-analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

The persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are environmentally stable and highly toxic chemicals that accumulate in living adipose tissue and have a very destructive effect on aquatic ecosystems. To analyze the evolution of the concentration and prevalence of POPs such as α-HCH, β-HCH, γ-HCH, ∑-HCH, Heptachlor, Aldrin, p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, ∑-DDT, and ∑-OCP in water resources, a search between January 01, 1970, to February 10, 2020, was followed using a systematic review and meta-analysis prevalence. Among the 2306 explored articles in the reconnaissance step, 311 articles with 5315 exemplars, 56 countries, and 4 types of water were included in the meta-analysis study. Among all studied POPs, the concentration of p,p'-DDT in water resources was the highest, especially in drinking water resources. The overall rank order based on the concentration and prevalence of POPs were surface water > drinking water > seawater > groundwater. To identify POPs-contaminated areas, the distance from the mean relative to their distribution was considered. The most to the least polluted areas included: South Africa, India, Turkey, Pakistan, Canada, Hong Kong, and China. The highest carcinogenic risk was observed for β-HCH (Turkey and China), followed by α-HCH (Mexico). The highest non-carcinogenic risk was identified for Aldrin (all analyzed countries), followed by Dieldrin (Turkey) and γ-HCH (Mexico). The Monte Carlo analysis (under the assumption that γ-HCH has a normal distribution), the mean obtained was 8.22E-07 for children and 3.83E-07 for adults. This is in accordance with the standard risk assessment approach. In terms of percentiles, the Monte-Carlo approach indicates that 75% of child population is under the 1.07E-06 risk and 95% of adults under 7.35E-06.

Characterization of groundwater nitrate exposure using Monte Carlo and Sobol sensitivity approaches in the diverse aquifer systems of an agricultural semiarid region of Lower Ganga Basin, India

Prevalence of nitrate in different aquifer systems is a growing environmental and public health concern. Efforts were made for the first-time to achieve a higher accuracy in health risks characterization associated with the nitrate in groundwater of the diverse aquifer systems on the residents of a semi-arid rural tract of Lower Ganga Basin using Monte Carlo Simulations and Sobol Sensitivity analyses. The nitrate levels in groundwater varied between 0 and 508.3 mg/L with a mean of 19.79 ± 32.78 mg/L and 0-435.0 mg/L with a mean of 24.44 ± 35.15 mg/L during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods, respectively. About 847.12-1000.25 km² area of the survey area (total area 4545 km²) exhibited nitrate concentrations (C) > the pre-intervention limits (45-50 mg/L). Minor populations, especially the infants from the granite gneiss, Rajmahal traps, laterite, recent alluvial and old alluvial aquifer zones under the Central Tendency Exposure (CTE) condition and all the aquifer zones (including the Gondwana supergroup aquifer zone) under Reasonable Maximum Exposure (RME) scenarios, were characterized as being at high risks of methemoglobinemia, primarily due to ingestion of untreated nitrate contaminated groundwater. Residents of the alluvial aquifer zones of the study area were found to the most vulnerable to the groundwater nitrate toxicity through oral and dermal exposures. The study validated the prediction accuracies of different interpolation methods including the Spline, Kriging, polynomial and Inverse Distance Weighted and revealed that Kriging predicted the Spatio-seasonal variations of groundwater nitrate of the district more accurately. Sobol Sensitivity analysis revealed C and the interaction effects of C and groundwater Ingestion Rate (IR), and C and Fraction of skin area contacted with groundwater (F) as the influential parameters for oral and dermal health risks exposure models. Therefore, the study recommends to residents of the study area to consume treated groundwater to mitigate nitrate related health morbidities.

Probabilistic health risk assessment of exposure to carcinogens of Chinese family cooking and influence analysis of cooking factors

Cooking oil fume (COF) have adverse health effects for people. A probabilistic health risk assessment model with risk parameters as random variables considering the differences in exposure concentration and exposure time of different cooking event was proposed to assess the inhalational incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The exposure of carcinogens such as benzene, formaldehyde, PM_2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAHs) and PM_2.5-bound heavy metals (PHMs) of Chinese family cooking was studied and the exposure concentrations of carcinogens were predicted by computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In addition, the influence of five key cooking factors (cooking method, the weight of ingredients (meat and vegetables), type of meat, ratio of meat to vegetables, and type of oil) that affect the generation of COF was explored. The ILCR of COF is assessed comprehensively in present study by the probabilistic health risk assessment model. The result showed that the sum of the risks of assessed carcinogens (total ILCR of COF) determined by Monte Carlo simulation method with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI) is 2.45 × 10^-4 to 1.61 × 10^-3, which far exceeds the acceptable limit of 1.00 × 10^-6. Generally, the ILCR of assessed carcinogens decreases in the following order: PHMs [ILCR (95%CI): 2.08 × 10^-4 to 1.54 × 10^-3] > formaldehyde [ILCR (95%CI): 9.04 × 10^-6 to 6.87 × 10^-5] and PPAHs [ILCR (95%CI): 5.97 × 10^-6 to 4.51 × 10^-5] > benzene [ILCR (95%CI): 2.99 × 10^-7 to 3.00 × 10^-6]. The results indicated that more attention should be paid to the ILCR of PM_2.5. Cooking method significantly affect the ILCR of carcinogens in COF excluding formaldehyde. The ILCRs of COF from water-based cooking methods are greater than those of oil-based cooking ones.

Comprehensive Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment for Exposure to Arsenic and Cadmium in Groundwater

Probabilistic health risk assessment has widely been used for more realistic risk analysis of contaminants. However, the existing probabilistic modeling process may be unable to reflect the actual health risks comprehensively. In the present study, the Monte Carlo simulation was employed to assess the probabilistic health risks of exposing to arsenic (As) and cadmium (Cd) in groundwater through ingestion and dermal contact pathways. To systematically evaluate the actual health risks of residents, two scenarios of the probabilistic health risk assessment were proposed: (1) fixed exposure parameters, whereas uncertain metal concentrations, and (2) uncertain exposure parameters and metal concentrations. The results indicated that the mean hazard index (HI) for local residents was mostly accepted (HI < 1), while the non-cancer risk of infants at the 95th percentile under scenario 2 (HI = 1.42) exceeded the safe level of 1, signifying the potential non-cancer risk on infants. Meanwhile, the average total cancer risk (TCR) values were several times greater than the acceptable limit of 1E-06 for all the age groups under both scenarios 1 and 2, reflecting the unacceptable cancer risk. Moreover, sensitivity analysis identified the exposure duration (ED) and concentration factor (C_W) were the most relevant parameters that affect the health risk. Overall, the results of this study will be useful for the policy makers in comprehensively understanding the actual health risks of the heavy metal(loids) contamination in groundwater on receptors, as well as setting up suitable groundwater management strategies to guarantee safe water supply and to maintain health for local residents.

Probabilistic human health risk assessment associated with fluoride and arsenic co-occurrence in drinking water from the metropolitan area of San Luis Potosí, Mexico

A major public health concern in Mexico is the natural contamination of groundwater with fluoride and arsenic. Therefore, this work aimed to evaluate the magnitude of human health risk after determining fluoride and arsenic concentrations in groundwater samples (n = 50) from the Metropolitan area of the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Fluoride levels in water were determined via a potentiometric method using an ion-selective electrode. Arsenic concentrations in water samples were determined with an Atomic Absorption technique. Subsequently, a probabilistic health risk assessment was developed (Monte Carlo Analysis). Fluoride levels in water ranged from 0.20 to 3.50 mg/L. For arsenic, the mean level found in the assessed water samples was 15.5 ± 5.50 μg/L (range: 2.50-30.0 μg/L). In addition, when the probabilistic health risk assessment was completed, a mean HI (cumulative hazardous index) of higher than 1 was detected, indicating a high NCR (non-carcinogenic risk) for children and adults. According to the results found in this study, exposure protection campaigns are imperative in the Metropolitan area of the city of San Luis Potosí, Mexico, to successfully diminish exposure to arsenic and fluoride and, as a consequence, decrease the NCR in the population living in that region of Mexico.

Human health risk assessment for exposure to BTEXN in an urban aquifer using deterministic and probabilistic methods: A case study of Chennai city, India

The aquifer in Tondiarpet, Chennai, had been severely contaminated with petroleum fuels due to an underground pipeline leakage. Groundwater samples were analyzed quarterly for priority pollutants such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and naphthalene (BTEXN) using purge and trap gas chromatography and mass spectrometer from 2016 to 2018. The maximum concentrations of BTEXN in groundwater at the site were found to be greater than the permissible limits significantly. Among the five sampling locations (MW1, MW2, MW3, MW4, and MW5), mean BTEXN levels were found to be higher near MW2, confirming the source location of petroleum leakage. Human health risk assessment was carried out using deterministic and probabilistic methods for exposure to BTEXN by oral and dermal exposure pathways. Risk analysis indicated that mean cancer and non-cancer risks were many times higher than the allowable limits of 1E-06 and 1 respectively in all age groups (children, teens, and adults), implying the adverse health effects. Oral exposure is predominately contributing (60-80%) to the total health risk in comparison to the dermal exposure route. Variability and uncertainty were addressed using the Monte Carlo simulations and the resultant minimum, maximum, 5th, 95th^, and mean percentile risks were predicted. Under the random exposure conditions to BTEXN, it was estimated that the risk would become unacceptable for >98.7% of the exposed population. Based on the sensitivity analysis, exposure duration, and ingestion rate are the crucial variables contributing significantly to the health risk. As part of the risk management, preliminary remediation goals for the study site were estimated, which require >99% removal of the BTEXN contamination for risk-free exposures. It is suggested that the residents of Tondiarpet shouldn't utilize the contaminated groundwater mainly for oral ingestion to lower the cancer incidence related to exposure to BTEXN.

Heavy metals risk assessment in drinking water: An integrated probabilistic-fuzzy approach

Heavy metal(loids) in drinking water have long been a critical water quality concern. Chronic exposure to toxic heavy metals and metalloids (TMMs) through water ingestion can result in significant health risks to the public, while elevated concentrations of less toxic heavy metals (LTMs) can compromise the aesthetic value of water. An integrated probabilistic-fuzzy approach was developed to help water utilities assess water quality regarding heavy metal(loids) (WQHM). In probabilistic assessments, the probabilities of exceedance of health risk guidelines due to chronic exposure to TMMs and exceedance of aesthetic objectives due to elevated LTMs concentrations were quantified through Monte Carlo simulations. The probabilistic assessments can address the aleatory uncertainties due to random variations of health risk parameters. A fuzzy inference system, composed of fuzzy membership functions, operators, and rules, was used to facilitate interpreting WQHM based on the probabilities of guideline exceedance. Epistemic uncertainties due to vagueness and imprecision in linguistic variables used for describing health risks and aesthetic impacts can be reduced by fuzzy inferencing. The developed approach was applied to four water quality scenarios characterized by different combinations of TMMs and LTMs concentrations. Reasonable decisions were recommended for WQHM management under the four scenarios. The developed approach offers a useful tool for systematically assessing WQHM from a health risk mitigation perspective by addressing different types of uncertainties.

Spatial analysis of chromium in southwestern part of Iran: probabilistic health risk and multivariate global sensitivity analysis

This study was concerned with chromium as a potential carcinogenic contaminant in 64 wells located in five aquifers, southwest of Iran. A probabilistic health risk assessment indicated a high risk to the local residents including adults and children in the study area. A sequential sensitivity analysis and a novel approach known as multivariate global sensitivity analysis using both principal component analysis and B-spline were applied to investigate the behavior of health risk model along time considering four independent input parameters in the risk equation. In this context, based on the results of sensitivity analysis, concentration of chromium in drinking water (C_w) and body weight (W) were the most influential parameters. Random forest (RF) was used as a variable selection method to choose the most influential parameters for the prediction of chromium. Five parameters, among 13 water quality variables, including phosphate, nitrate, fluoride, manganese and iron were selected by RF as the most important parameters for spatial prediction. Hybrid methods of RF and ordinary kriging (RFOK) and RF and inverse distance weighting (RFIDW) were then applied for spatial prediction of Cr using the secondary variables. The RFOK and RFIDW were more efficient than that of ordinary kriging (OK) with respect to a cross-validation algorithm. For instance, in terms of relative root mean squared error, the performance of OK was improved from 31.72 to 23.21 and 23.61 for RFOK and RFIDW, respectively.

Human health risk assessment of ground water contaminated with petroleum PAHs using Monte Carlo simulations: A case study of an Indian metropolitan city

Underground pipelines are frequently used to transport petroleum fuels, through industrial as well as residential zones. Chennai is one of the four largest metropolitan cities of India. The region of interest in this study is located in the northern part of the Chennai. Ground water of this area was contaminated with polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from the leaking oil storage tanks and pipe lines. Health risk assessment was conducted for exposure to PAHs in the ground water using incremental life time cancer risk (ILCR) models coupled with benzo[a]pyrene toxic equivalent method. The exposure pathways considered in this study were direct water ingestion and dermal contact under residential scenario. Exposure input parameters were transformed to statistical parameters using lognormal/uniform distributions and resultant probabilities of cancer risk were estimated by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Preliminary remediation goals were predicted using the combination of the cancer risk models of all the exposure routes with the consideration of high-safety risk of 1-in-1 million. Results showed that the cancer risk is predominantly contributed (greater than 98%) by dermal exposure than the oral in both adults and children. The total ILCR is found to be greater than a low safety risk of 1-in-10,000 with higher probability percentages (>90%). The 95th percentile values of the risk were presented in order to address the need for remediation. Appropriate remedial and treatment methods for the subject site were proposed. The results of the study will be useful for the regulatory boards and policy makers in India in understanding the actual impact of the contamination on receptors, setting up final remediation goals and deciding on a specific remedial method.

Health risk assessment of heavy metals through the consumption of food crops fertilized by biosolids: A probabilistic-based analysis

The objective of this study was to perform a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to assess the health risk of Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), and Zinc (Zn) through the consumption of food crops grown on farm lands fertilized by biosolids. The risk analysis was conducted using 8 years of historical heavy metal data (2005-2013) of the municipal biosolids generated by a nearby treatment facility considering one-time and long-term biosolids land application scenarios for a range of 5-100 t/ha fertilizer application rate. The 95th percentile of the hazard index (HI) increased from 0.124 to 0.179 when the rate of fertilizer application increased from 5 to 100 t/ha at one-time biosolids land application. The HI at long-term biosolids land application was also found 1.3 and 1.9 times greater than that of one-time land application at fertilizer application rates of 5 and 100 t/ha, respectively. Rice ingestion had more contribution to the HI than vegetable ingestion. Cd and Cu were also found to have more contribution to the health risk associated to vegetable and rice ingestion, respectively. Results indicated no potential risk to the human health even at long-term biosolids land application scenario at 100 t/ha fertilizer application rate.