Nasal mucosal IgA levels against SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal coronaviruses are low in children but boosted by reinfection

Repeated coronavirus infections in childhood drive progressive maturation of systemic immune responses into adulthood. Analyses of immune responses in children have focused primarily upon systemic assessment but the importance of mucosal immunity is increasingly recognised. We studied virus-specific antibody responses in contemporaneous nasal swabs and blood samples from 99 children (4-15 years) and 28 adults (22-56 years), all of whom had prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Whilst mucosal IgA titres against Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial virus were comparable between children and adults, those against all coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, were lower in children. Mucosal IgA antibodies demonstrated comparable relative neutralisation capacity in both groups and retained activity against recent omicron variants such as XBB.1 which are highly evasive of IgG neutralisation. SARS-CoV-2 reinfection preferentially enhanced mucosal IgA responses whilst the impact of vaccination was more modest. Nasal IgA levels against coronaviruses thus display a pattern of incremental response to reinfection which likely determines the natural history of reinfection. This highlights the particular significance of developing mucosal vaccines against coronaviruses in children.

Immunological imprinting of humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in children

Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 are globally dominant and infection rates are very high in children. We measure immune responses following Omicron BA.1/2 infection in children aged 6-14 years and relate this to prior and subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. Primary Omicron infection elicits a weak antibody response with poor functional neutralizing antibodies. Subsequent Omicron reinfection or COVID-19 vaccination elicits increased antibody titres with broad neutralisation of Omicron subvariants. Prior pre-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 virus infection or vaccination primes for robust antibody responses following Omicron infection but these remain primarily focussed against ancestral variants. Primary Omicron infection thus elicits a weak antibody response in children which is boosted after reinfection or vaccination. Cellular responses are robust and broadly equivalent in all groups, providing protection against severe disease irrespective of SARS-CoV-2 variant. Immunological imprinting is likely to act as an important determinant of long-term humoral immunity, the future clinical importance of which is unknown.

Prevalence of electronic screening for sepsis in National Health Service acute hospitals in England

Sepsis is a worldwide public health problem. Rapid identification is associated with improved patient outcomes-if followed by timely appropriate treatment.

OBJECTIVES

Describe digital sepsis alerts (DSAs) in use in English National Health Service (NHS) acute hospitals.

METHODS

A Freedom of Information request surveyed acute NHS Trusts on their adoption of electronic patient records (EPRs) and DSAs.

RESULTS

Of the 99 Trusts that responded, 84 had an EPR. Over 20 different EPR system providers were identified as operational in England. The most common providers were Cerner (21%). System C, Dedalus and Allscripts Sunrise were also relatively common (13%, 10% and 7%, respectively). 70% of NHS Trusts with an EPR responded that they had a DSA; most of these use the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2). There was evidence that the EPR provider was related to the DSA algorithm. We found no evidence that Trusts were using EPRs to introduce data driven algorithms or DSAs able to include, for example, pre-existing conditions that may be known to increase risk.Not all Trusts were willing or able to provide details of their EPR or the underlying algorithm.

DISCUSSION

The majority of NHS Trusts use an EPR of some kind; many use a NEWS2-based DSA in keeping with national guidelines.

CONCLUSION

Many English NHS Trusts use DSAs; even those using similar triggers vary and many recreate paper systems. Despite the proliferation of machine learning algorithms being developed to support early detection of sepsis, there is little evidence that these are being used to improve personalised sepsis detection.

Parents' and teachers' attitudes to and experiences of the implementation of COVID-19 preventive measures in primary and secondary schools following reopening of schools in autumn 2020: a descriptive cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVE

To assess implementation and ease of implementation of control measures in schools as reported by staff and parents.

DESIGN

A descriptive cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

Staff and parents/guardians of the 132 primary schools and 19 secondary schools participating in COVID-19 surveillance in school kids (sKIDs and sKIDsPLUS Studies).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Prevalence of control measures implemented in schools in autumn 2020, parental and staff perception of ease of implementation.

RESULTS

In total, 56 of 151 (37%) schools participated in this study, with 1953 parents and 986 staff members completing the questionnaire. Most common measures implemented by schools included regular hand cleaning for students (52 of 56, 93%) and staff (70 of 73, 96%), as reported by parents and staff, respectively, and was among the easiest to implement at all times for students (57%) and even more so, for staff (78%). Maintaining 2-metre distancing was less commonly reported for students (24%-51%) as it was for staff (81%-84%), but was one of the most difficult to follow at all times for students (25%) and staff (16%) alike. Some measures were more commonly reported by primary school compared to secondary school parents, including keeping students within the same small groups (28 of 41, 68% vs 8 of 15, 53%), ensuring the same teacher for classes (29 of 41, 71% vs 6 of 15, 40%). On the other hand, wearing a face covering while at school was reported by three-quarters of secondary school parents compared with only parents of 4 of 41 (10%) primary schools. Other measures such as student temperature checks (5%-13%) and advising staff work from home if otherwise healthy (7%-15%) were rarely reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Variable implementation of infection control measures was reported, with some easier to implement (hand hygiene) than others (physical distancing).

mRNA or ChAd0x1 COVID-19 Vaccination of Adolescents Induces Robust Antibody and Cellular Responses With Continued Recognition of Omicron Following mRNA-1273

Children and adolescents generally experience mild COVID-19. However, those with underlying physical health conditions are at a significantly increased risk of severe disease. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of antibody and cellular responses in adolescents with severe neuro-disabilities who received COVID-19 vaccination with either ChAdOx1 (n=6) or an mRNA vaccine (mRNA-1273, n=8, BNT162b2, n=1). Strong immune responses were observed after vaccination and antibody levels and neutralisation titres were both higher after two doses. Both measures were also higher after mRNA vaccination and were further enhanced by prior natural infection where one vaccine dose was sufficient to generate peak antibody response. Robust T-cell responses were generated after dual vaccination and were also higher following mRNA vaccination. Early T-cells were characterised by a dominant effector-memory CD4+ T-cell population with a type-1 cytokine signature with additional production of IL-10. Antibody levels were well-maintained for at least 3 months after vaccination and 3 of 4 donors showed measurable neutralisation titres against the Omicron variant. T-cell responses also remained robust, with generation of a central/stem cell memory pool and showed strong reactivity against Omicron spike. These data demonstrate that COVID-19 vaccines display strong immunogenicity in adolescents and that dual vaccination, or single vaccination following prior infection, generate higher immune responses than seen after natural infection and develop activity against Omicron. Initial evidence suggests that mRNA vaccination elicits stronger immune responses than adenoviral delivery, although the latter is also higher than seen in adult populations. COVID-19 vaccines are therefore highly immunogenic in high-risk adolescents and dual vaccination might be able to provide relative protection against the Omicron variant that is currently globally dominant.

Emergence of the delta variant and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in secondary school students and staff: Prospective surveillance in 18 schools, England

BACKGROUND

The role of educational settings in SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission remains controversial. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection, seroprevalence, and seroconversion rates in secondary schools during the 2020/21 academic year, which included the emergence of the more transmissible alpha and delta variants, in England.

METHODS

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) initiated prospective surveillance in 18 urban English secondary schools. Participants had nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and blood sampling for SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein and spike protein antibodies at the start (Round 1: September-October 2020) and end (Round 2: December 2020) of the autumn term, when schools reopened after national lockdown was imposed in January 2021 (Round 3: March-April 2021), and end of the academic year (Round 4: May-July 2021).

FINDINGS

We enrolled 2314 participants (1277 students, 1037 staff; one participant had missing data for PCR testing). In-school testing identified 31 PCR-positive participants (20 students, 11 staff). Another 247 confirmed cases (112 students, 135 staff) were identified after linkage with national surveillance data, giving an overall positivity rate of 12.0% (278/2313; staff: 14.1%, 146/1037 vs students: 10.3%, 132/1276; p = 0.006). Trends were similar to national infection data. Nucleoprotein-antibody seroprevalence increased for students and staff between Rounds 1 and 3 but were similar between Rounds 3 and 4, when the delta variant was the dominant circulating strain. Overall, Nucleoprotein-antibody seroconversion was 18.4% (137/744) in staff and 18.8% (146/778) in students, while Spike-antibody seroconversion was higher in staff (72.8%, 525/721) than students (21.3%, 163/764) because of vaccination.

INTERPRETATION

SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in secondary schools remained low when community infection rates were low, even as the delta variant was emerging in England.

FUNDING

This study was funded by the UK Department of Health and Social Care.

SARS Antibody Testing in Children: Development of Oral Fluid Assays for IgG Measurements

Seroepidemiological studies to monitor antibody kinetics are important for assessing the extent and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a population. Noninvasive sampling methods are advantageous for reducing the need for venipuncture, which may be a barrier to investigations, particularly in pediatric populations. Oral fluids are obtained by gingiva-crevicular sampling from children and adults and are very well accepted. Enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) based on these samples have acceptable sensitivity and specificity compared to conventional serum-based antibody EIAs and are suitable for population-based surveillance. We describe the development and evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 IgG EIAs using SARS-CoV-2 viral nucleoprotein (NP) and spike (S) proteins in IgG isotype capture format and an indirect receptor-binding-domain (RBD) IgG EIA, intended for use in children as a primary endpoint. All three assays were assessed using a panel of 1,999 paired serum and oral fluids from children and adults participating in school SARS-CoV-2 surveillance studies during and after the first and second pandemic wave in the United Kingdom. The anti-NP IgG capture assay was the best candidate, with an overall sensitivity of 75% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 71 to 79%) and specificity of 99% (95% CI: 78 to 99%) compared with paired serum antibodies. Sensitivity observed in children (80%, 95% CI: 71 to 88%) was higher than that in adults (67%, CI: 60% to 74%). Oral fluid assays (OF) using spike protein and RBD antigens were also 99% specific and achieved reasonable but lower sensitivity in the target population (78%, 95% CI [68% to 86%] and 53%, 95% CI [43% to 64%], respectively). IMPORTANCE We report on the first large-scale assessment of the suitability of oral fluids for detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibody obtained from healthy children attending school. The sample type (gingiva-crevicular fluid, which is a transudate of blood but is not saliva) can be self collected. Although detection of antibodies in oral fluids is less sensitive than that in blood, our study suggests an optimal format for operational use. The laboratory methods we have developed can reliably measure antibodies in children, who are able to take their own samples. Our findings are of immediate practical relevance for use in large-scale seroprevalence studies designed to measure exposure to infection, as they typically require venipuncture. Overall, our data indicate that OF assays based on the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies are a tool suitable for population-based seroepidemiology studies in children and highly acceptable in children and adults, as venipuncture is no longer necessary.

Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive spike-specific immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection

SARS-CoV-2 infection is generally mild or asymptomatic in children but a biological basis for this outcome is unclear. Here we compare antibody and cellular immunity in children (aged 3-11 years) and adults. Antibody responses against spike protein were high in children and seroconversion boosted responses against seasonal Beta-coronaviruses through cross-recognition of the S2 domain. Neutralization of viral variants was comparable between children and adults. Spike-specific T cell responses were more than twice as high in children and were also detected in many seronegative children, indicating pre-existing cross-reactive responses to seasonal coronaviruses. Importantly, children retained antibody and cellular responses 6 months after infection, whereas relative waning occurred in adults. Spike-specific responses were also broadly stable beyond 12 months. Therefore, children generate robust, cross-reactive and sustained immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 with focused specificity for the spike protein. These findings provide insight into the relative clinical protection that occurs in most children and might help to guide the design of pediatric vaccination regimens.

Antibody persistence and neutralising activity in primary school students and staff: Prospective active surveillance, June to December 2020, England

BACKGROUND

Prospective, longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 sero-surveillance in schools across England was initiated after the first national lockdown, allowing comparison of child and adult antibody responses over time.

METHODS

Prospective active serological surveillance in 46 primary schools in England tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during June, July and December 2020. Samples were tested for nucleocapsid (N) and receptor binding domain (RBD) antibodies, to estimate antibody persistence at least 6 months after infection, and for the correlation of N, RBD and live virus neutralising activity.

FINDINGS

In June 2020, 1,344 staff and 835 students were tested. Overall, 11.5% (95%CI: 9.4-13.9) and 11.3% (95%CI: 9.2-13.6; p = 0.88) of students had nucleoprotein and RBD antibodies, compared to 15.6% (95%CI: 13.7-17.6) and 15.3% (95%CI: 13.4-17.3; p = 0.83) of staff. Live virus neutralising activity was detected in 79.8% (n = 71/89) of nucleocapsid and 85.5% (71/83) of RBD antibody positive children. RBD antibodies correlated more strongly with neutralising antibodies (rs=0.7527; p<0.0001) than nucleocapsid antibodies (rs=0.3698; p<0.0001). A median of 24.4 weeks later, 58.2% (107/184) participants had nucleocapsid antibody seroreversion, compared to 20.9% (33/158) for RBD (p<0.001). Similar seroreversion rates were observed between staff and students for nucleocapsid (p = 0.26) and RBD-antibodies (p = 0.43). Nucleocapsid and RBD antibody quantitative results were significantly lower in staff compared to students (p = 0.028 and <0.0001 respectively) at baseline, but not at 24 weeks (p = 0.16 and p = 0.37, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

The immune response in children following SARS-CoV-2 infection was robust and sustained (>6 months) but further work is required to understand the extent to which this protects against reinfection.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant, infection rates, antibody seroconversion and seroprevalence rates in secondary school students and staff: Active prospective surveillance, December 2020 to March 2021, England

Objectives

We assessed SARS-CoV-2 infection, seroprevalence and seroconversion in students and staff when secondary schools reopened in March 2021.

Methods

We initiated SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in 18 secondary schools across six regions in September 2020. Participants provided nasal swabs for RT-PCR and blood samples for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the beginning (September 2020) and end (December 2020) of the autumn term and at the start of the spring term (March 2021).

Findings

In March 2021, 1895 participants (1100 students:795 staff) were tested; 5.6% (61/1094) students and 4.4% (35/792) staff had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from December 2020-March 2021. Nucleoprotein-antibody seroprevalence was 36.3% (370/1018) in students and 31.9% (245/769) in staff, while spike-antibody prevalence was 39.5% (402/1018) and 59.8% (459/769), respectively, similar to regional community seroprevalence. Between December 2020 and March 2021, 14.8% (97/656; 95%CI: 12.2–17.7) students and 10.0% (59/590; 95%CI: 7.7–12.7) staff seroconverted. Weekly seroconversion rates were similar from September to December 2020 (8.0/1000) and from December 2020 to March 2021 (7.9/1000; students: 9.3/1,000; staff: 6.3/1,000).

Interpretation

By March 2021, a third of secondary school students and staff had evidence of prior infection based on N-antibody seropositivity, and an additional third of staff had evidence of vaccine-induced immunity based on S-antibody seropositivity.

Implementation of preventive measures to prevent COVID-19: a national study of English primary schools in summer 2020

We examined the feasibility of implementing preventive measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 105 English primary schools in summer 2020 via a survey and interviews with headteachers. High rates of implementation of most recommended measures were noted with the exception of requiring 2 m distance for students, fitting hand sanitizers in classrooms and introducing one-way systems in school corridors. Measures such as regular handwashing and stopping assemblies were considered easy to implement. Majorly challenging measures included distancing between individuals (for students: 51%, N = 99; for staff: 34%; N = 98; for parents: 26%, N = 100), spacing out desks (34%, N = 99), keeping same staff assigned to each student group (33%, N = 97) and staggering break times (25%, N = 99). Rapid implementation was facilitated by staff commitment and communication among stakeholders, but hampered by limitations with guidance received, physical environments, resources, parental adherence and balancing preventive measures with learning. Difficulties with distancing for younger children suggest that smaller bubbles with fewer distancing requirements within these may be a policy option. Schools require further financial, human resource and other support for effective implementation of preventive measures.

SARS-CoV-2 infection, antibody positivity and seroconversion rates in staff and students following full reopening of secondary schools in England: A prospective cohort study, September-December 2020

BACKGROUND

Older children have higher SARS-CoV-2 infection rates than younger children. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection, seroprevalence and seroconversion rates in staff and students following the full reopening of all secondary schools in England.

METHODS

Public Health England (PHE) invited secondary schools in six regions (East and West London, Hertfordshire, Derbyshire, Manchester and Birmingham) to participate in SARS-CoV-2 surveillance during the 2020/21 academic year. Participants had nasal swabs for RT-PCR and blood samples for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the beginning (September 2020) and end (December 2020) of the autumn term. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess independent risk factors for seropositivity and seroconversion.

FINDINGS

Eighteen schools in six regions enrolled 2,209 participants, including 1,189 (53.8%) students and 1,020 (46.2%) staff. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were not significantly different between students and staff in round one (5/948; [0.53%] vs. 2/876 [0.23%]; p = 0.46) or round two (10/948 [1.05%] vs. 7/886 [0.79%]; p = 0.63), and similar to national prevalence. None of four and 7/15 (47%) sequenced strains in rounds 1 and 2 were the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant. In round 1, antibody seropositivity was higher in students than staff (114/893 [12.8%] vs. 79/861 [9.2%]; p = 0.016), but similar in round 2 (117/893 [13.1%] vs.117/872 [13.3%]; p = 0.85), comparable to local community seroprevalence. Between the two rounds, 8.7% (57/652) staff and 6.6% (36/549) students seroconverted (p = 0.16).

INTERPRETATION

In secondary schools, SARS-CoV-2 infection, seropositivity and seroconversion rates were similar in staff and students, and comparable to local community rates. Ongoing surveillance will be important for monitoring the impact of new variants in educational settings.

Providing an Evidence Base for Tissue Sampling and Culture Interpretation in Suspected Fracture-Related Infection

BACKGROUND

The recent consensus definition for the diagnosis of fracture-related infection (FRI) includes the identification of indistinguishable microorganisms in at least 2 surgical deep-tissue specimens as a confirmatory criterion. However, this cut-off, and the total number of specimens from a patient with suspected FRI that should be sent for microbiological testing, have not been validated. We endeavored to estimate the accuracy of different numbers of specimens and diagnostic cut-offs for microbiological testing of deep-tissue specimens in patients undergoing surgical treatment for possible FRI.

METHODS

A total of 513 surgical procedures in 385 patients with suspected FRI were included. A minimum of 2 surgical deep-tissue specimens were submitted for microbiological testing; 5 or more specimens were analyzed in 345 procedures (67%). FRI was defined by the presence of any confirmatory criteria other than microbiology. Resampling was utilized to model the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic cut-offs for the number of surgical specimens yielding indistinguishable microorganisms and for the total number of specimens. The likelihood of detecting all clinically relevant microorganisms was also assessed.

RESULTS

A diagnostic cut-off of at least 2 of 5 specimens with indistinguishable microorganisms identified by culture was 68% sensitive (95% confidence interval [CI], 62% to 74%) and 87% specific (95% CI, 81% to 94%) for the diagnosis of FRI. Two out of 3 specimens were 60% sensitive (95% CI, 55% to 66%) and 92% specific (95% CI, 88% to 96%). Submitting only 3 deep-tissue specimens risked missing clinically relevant microorganisms in at least 1 in 10 cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study was the first to validate microbiological criteria for the diagnosis of FRI, supporting the current confirmatory diagnostic criteria for FRI. Analysis of at least 5 deep-tissue specimens in patients with possible FRI is recommended.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Diagnostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in primary schools in England in June-December, 2020 (sKIDs): an active, prospective surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in educational settings. Public Health England initiated a study, COVID-19 Surveillance in School KIDs (sKIDs), in primary schools when they partially reopened from June 1, 2020, after the first national lockdown in England to estimate the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, seroprevalence, and seroconversion in staff and students.

METHODS

sKIDs, an active, prospective, surveillance study, included two groups: the weekly swabbing group and the blood sampling group. The swabbing group underwent weekly nasal swabs for at least 4 weeks after partial school reopening during the summer half-term (June to mid-July, 2020). The blood sampling group additionally underwent blood sampling for serum SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to measure previous infection at the beginning (June 1-19, 2020) and end (July 3-23, 2020) of the summer half-term, and, after full reopening in September, 2020, and at the end of the autumn term (Nov 23-Dec 18, 2020). We tested for predictors of SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity using logistic regression. We calculated antibody seroconversion rates for participants who were seronegative in the first round and were tested in at least two rounds.

FINDINGS

During the summer half-term, 11 966 participants (6727 students, 4628 staff, and 611 with unknown staff or student status) in 131 schools had 40 501 swabs taken. Weekly SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were 4·1 (one of 24 463; 95% CI 0·1-21·8) per 100 000 students and 12·5 (two of 16 038; 1·5-45·0) per 100 000 staff. At recruitment, in 45 schools, 91 (11·2%; 95% CI 7·9-15·1) of 816 students and 209 (15·1%; 11·9-18·9) of 1381 staff members were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, similar to local community seroprevalence. Seropositivity was not associated with school attendance during lockdown (p=0·13 for students and p=0·20 for staff) or staff contact with students (p=0·37). At the end of the summer half-term, 603 (73·9%) of 816 students and 1015 (73·5%) of 1381 staff members were still participating in the surveillance, and five (four students, one staff member) seroconverted. By December, 2020, 55 (5·1%; 95% CI 3·8-6·5) of 1085 participants who were seronegative at recruitment (in June, 2020) had seroconverted, including 19 (5·6%; 3·4-8·6) of 340 students and 36 (4·8%; 3·4-6·6) of 745 staff members (p=0·60).

INTERPRETATION

In England, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were low in primary schools following their partial and full reopening in June and September, 2020.

FUNDING

UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Identification of Reduced Host Transcriptomic Signatures for Tuberculosis Disease and Digital PCR-Based Validation and Quantification

Recently, host whole blood gene expression signatures have been identified for diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). Absolute quantification of the concentrations of signature transcripts in blood have not been reported, but would facilitate diagnostic test development. To identify minimal transcript signatures, we applied a transcript selection procedure to microarray data from African adults comprising 536 patients with TB, other diseases (OD) and latent TB (LTBI), divided into training and test sets. Signatures were further investigated using reverse transcriptase (RT)-digital PCR (dPCR). A four-transcript signature (GBP6, TMCC1, PRDM1, and ARG1) measured using RT-dPCR distinguished TB patients from those with OD (area under the curve (AUC) 93.8% (CI_95% 82.2-100%). A three-transcript signature (FCGR1A, ZNF296, and C1QB) differentiated TB from LTBI (AUC 97.3%, CI_95%: 93.3-100%), regardless of HIV. These signatures have been validated across platforms and across samples offering strong, quantitative support for their use as diagnostic biomarkers for TB.

Rapid triage for COVID-19 using routine clinical data for patients attending hospital: development and prospective validation of an artificial intelligence screening test

BACKGROUND

The early clinical course of COVID-19 can be difficult to distinguish from other illnesses driving presentation to hospital. However, viral-specific PCR testing has limited sensitivity and results can take up to 72 h for operational reasons. We aimed to develop and validate two early-detection models for COVID-19, screening for the disease among patients attending the emergency department and the subset being admitted to hospital, using routinely collected health-care data (laboratory tests, blood gas measurements, and vital signs). These data are typically available within the first hour of presentation to hospitals in high-income and middle-income countries, within the existing laboratory infrastructure.

METHODS

We trained linear and non-linear machine learning classifiers to distinguish patients with COVID-19 from pre-pandemic controls, using electronic health record data for patients presenting to the emergency department and admitted across a group of four teaching hospitals in Oxfordshire, UK (Oxford University Hospitals). Data extracted included presentation blood tests, blood gas testing, vital signs, and results of PCR testing for respiratory viruses. Adult patients (>18 years) presenting to hospital before Dec 1, 2019 (before the first COVID-19 outbreak), were included in the COVID-19-negative cohort; those presenting to hospital between Dec 1, 2019, and April 19, 2020, with PCR-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection were included in the COVID-19-positive cohort. Patients who were subsequently admitted to hospital were included in their respective COVID-19-negative or COVID-19-positive admissions cohorts. Models were calibrated to sensitivities of 70%, 80%, and 90% during training, and performance was initially assessed on a held-out test set generated by an 80:20 split stratified by patients with COVID-19 and balanced equally with pre-pandemic controls. To simulate real-world performance at different stages of an epidemic, we generated test sets with varying prevalences of COVID-19 and assessed predictive values for our models. We prospectively validated our 80% sensitivity models for all patients presenting or admitted to the Oxford University Hospitals between April 20 and May 6, 2020, comparing model predictions with PCR test results.

FINDINGS

We assessed 155 689 adult patients presenting to hospital between Dec 1, 2017, and April 19, 2020. 114 957 patients were included in the COVID-negative cohort and 437 in the COVID-positive cohort, for a full study population of 115 394 patients, with 72 310 admitted to hospital. With a sensitive configuration of 80%, our emergency department (ED) model achieved 77·4% sensitivity and 95·7% specificity (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0·939) for COVID-19 among all patients attending hospital, and the admissions model achieved 77·4% sensitivity and 94·8% specificity (AUROC 0·940) for the subset of patients admitted to hospital. Both models achieved high negative predictive values (NPV; >98·5%) across a range of prevalences (≤5%). We prospectively validated our models for all patients presenting and admitted to Oxford University Hospitals in a 2-week test period. The ED model (3326 patients) achieved 92·3% accuracy (NPV 97·6%, AUROC 0·881), and the admissions model (1715 patients) achieved 92·5% accuracy (97·7%, 0·871) in comparison with PCR results. Sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in negative PCR results improved apparent accuracy (ED model 95·1%, admissions model 94·1%) and NPV (ED model 99·0%, admissions model 98·5%).

INTERPRETATION

Our models performed effectively as a screening test for COVID-19, excluding the illness with high-confidence by use of clinical data routinely available within 1 h of presentation to hospital. Our approach is rapidly scalable, fitting within the existing laboratory testing infrastructure and standard of care of hospitals in high-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, University of Oxford, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Differential occupational risks to healthcare workers from SARS-CoV-2 observed during a prospective observational study

We conducted voluntary Covid-19 testing programmes for symptomatic and asymptomatic staff at a UK teaching hospital using naso-/oro-pharyngeal PCR testing and immunoassays for IgG antibodies. 1128/10,034 (11.2%) staff had evidence of Covid-19 at some time. Using questionnaire data provided on potential risk-factors, staff with a confirmed household contact were at greatest risk (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.82 [95%CI 3.45-6.72]). Higher rates of Covid-19 were seen in staff working in Covid-19-facing areas (22.6% vs. 8.6% elsewhere) (aOR 2.47 [1.99-3.08]). Controlling for Covid-19-facing status, risks were heterogenous across the hospital, with higher rates in acute medicine (1.52 [1.07-2.16]) and sporadic outbreaks in areas with few or no Covid-19 patients. Covid-19 intensive care unit staff were relatively protected (0.44 [0.28-0.69]), likely by a bundle of PPE-related measures. Positive results were more likely in Black (1.66 [1.25-2.21]) and Asian (1.51 [1.28-1.77]) staff, independent of role or working location, and in porters and cleaners (2.06 [1.34-3.15]).

Oral versus Intravenous Antibiotics for Bone and Joint Infection

BACKGROUND

The management of complex orthopedic infections usually includes a prolonged course of intravenous antibiotic agents. We investigated whether oral antibiotic therapy is noninferior to intravenous antibiotic therapy for this indication.

METHODS

We enrolled adults who were being treated for bone or joint infection at 26 U.K. centers. Within 7 days after surgery (or, if the infection was being managed without surgery, within 7 days after the start of antibiotic treatment), participants were randomly assigned to receive either intravenous or oral antibiotics to complete the first 6 weeks of therapy. Follow-on oral antibiotics were permitted in both groups. The primary end point was definitive treatment failure within 1 year after randomization. In the analysis of the risk of the primary end point, the noninferiority margin was 7.5 percentage points.

RESULTS

Among the 1054 participants (527 in each group), end-point data were available for 1015 (96.3%). Treatment failure occurred in 74 of 506 participants (14.6%) in the intravenous group and 67 of 509 participants (13.2%) in the oral group. Missing end-point data (39 participants, 3.7%) were imputed. The intention-to-treat analysis showed a difference in the risk of definitive treatment failure (oral group vs. intravenous group) of -1.4 percentage points (90% confidence interval [CI], -4.9 to 2.2; 95% CI, -5.6 to 2.9), indicating noninferiority. Complete-case, per-protocol, and sensitivity analyses supported this result. The between-group difference in the incidence of serious adverse events was not significant (146 of 527 participants [27.7%] in the intravenous group and 138 of 527 [26.2%] in the oral group; P=0.58). Catheter complications, analyzed as a secondary end point, were more common in the intravenous group (9.4% vs. 1.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Oral antibiotic therapy was noninferior to intravenous antibiotic therapy when used during the first 6 weeks for complex orthopedic infection, as assessed by treatment failure at 1 year. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research; OVIVA Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN91566927 .).

Experience of managing open fractures of the lower limb at a major trauma centre

INTRODUCTION

In April 2012 the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford became a major trauma centre (MTC). The British Orthopaedic Association and British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons joint standards for the management of open fractures of the lower limb (BOAST 4) require system-wide changes in referral practice that may be facilitated by the MTC and its associated major trauma network.

METHODS

From 2008 to 2013 a multistep audit of compliance with BOAST 4 was conducted to assess referral patterns, timing of surgery and outcomes (surgical site infection rates), to determine changes following local intervention and the establishment of the MTC.

RESULTS

Over the study period, 50 patients had soft tissue cover for an open lower limb fracture and there was a significant increase in the proportion of patients receiving definitive fixation in our centre (p=0.036). The median time from injury to soft tissue cover fell from 6.0 days to 3.5 days (p=0.051) and the median time from definitive fixation to soft tissue cover fell from 5.0 days to 2.0 days (p=0.003). The deep infection rate fell from 27% to 8% (p=0.247). However, in 2013 many patients still experienced a delay of >72 hours between injury and soft tissue cover, primarily owing to a lack of capacity for providing soft tissue cover.

CONCLUSIONS

Our experience may be relevant to other MTCs seeking to identify barriers to optimising the management of patients with these injuries.

Burden of disease in adults admitted to hospital in a rural region of coastal Kenya: an analysis of data from linked clinical and demographic surveillance systems

Background

Estimates of the burden of disease in adults in sub-Saharan Africa largely rely on models of sparse data. We aimed to measure the burden of disease in adults living in a rural area of coastal Kenya with use of linked clinical and demographic surveillance data.

Methods

We used data from 18 712 adults admitted to Kilifi District Hospital (Kilifi, Kenya) between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2012, linked to 790 635 person-years of observation within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, to establish the rates and major causes of admission to hospital. These data were also used to model disease-specific disability-adjusted life-years lost in the population. We used geographical mapping software to calculate admission rates stratified by distance from the hospital.

Findings

The main causes of admission to hospital in women living within 5 km of the hospital were infectious and parasitic diseases (303 per 100 000 person-years of observation), pregnancy-related disorders (239 per 100 000 person-years of observation), and circulatory illnesses (105 per 100 000 person-years of observation). Leading causes of hospital admission in men living within 5 km of the hospital were infectious and parasitic diseases (169 per 100 000 person-years of observation), injuries (135 per 100 000 person-years of observation), and digestive system disorders (112 per 100 000 person-years of observation). HIV-related diseases were the leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years lost (2050 per 100 000 person-years of observation), followed by non-communicable diseases (741 per 100 000 person-years of observation). For every 5 km increase in distance from the hospital, all-cause admission rates decreased by 11% (95% CI 7–14) in men and 20% (17–23) in women. The magnitude of this decline was highest for endocrine disorders in women (35%; 95% CI 22–46) and neoplasms in men (30%; 9–45).

Interpretation

Adults in rural Kenya face a combined burden of infectious diseases, pregnancy-related disorders, cardiovascular illnesses, and injuries. Disease burden estimates based on hospital data are affected by distance from the hospital, and the amount of underestimation of disease burden differs by both disease and sex.

Funding

The Wellcome Trust, GAVI Alliance.

Diagnosis of childhood tuberculosis and host RNA expression in Africa

BACKGROUND

Improved diagnostic tests for tuberculosis in children are needed. We hypothesized that transcriptional signatures of host blood could be used to distinguish tuberculosis from other diseases in African children who either were or were not infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

METHODS

The study population comprised prospective cohorts of children who were undergoing evaluation for suspected tuberculosis in South Africa (655 children), Malawi (701 children), and Kenya (1599 children). Patients were assigned to groups according to whether the diagnosis was culture-confirmed tuberculosis, culture-negative tuberculosis, diseases other than tuberculosis, or latent tuberculosis infection. Diagnostic signatures distinguishing tuberculosis from other diseases and from latent tuberculosis infection were identified from genomewide analysis of RNA expression in host blood.

RESULTS

We identified a 51-transcript signature distinguishing tuberculosis from other diseases in the South African and Malawian children (the discovery cohort). In the Kenyan children (the validation cohort), a risk score based on the signature for tuberculosis and for diseases other than tuberculosis showed a sensitivity of 82.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68.6 to 94.3) and a specificity of 83.6% (95% CI, 74.6 to 92.7) for the diagnosis of culture-confirmed tuberculosis. Among patients with cultures negative for Mycobacterium tuberculosis who were treated for tuberculosis (those with highly probable, probable, or possible cases of tuberculosis), the estimated sensitivity was 62.5 to 82.3%, 42.1 to 80.8%, and 35.3 to 79.6%, respectively, for different estimates of actual tuberculosis in the groups. In comparison, the sensitivity of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for molecular detection of M. tuberculosis DNA in cases of culture-confirmed tuberculosis was 54.3% (95% CI, 37.1 to 68.6), and the sensitivity in highly probable, probable, or possible cases was an estimated 25.0 to 35.7%, 5.3 to 13.3%, and 0%, respectively; the specificity of the assay was 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

RNA expression signatures provided data that helped distinguish tuberculosis from other diseases in African children with and those without HIV infection. (Funded by the European Union Action for Diseases of Poverty Program and others).

Detection of tuberculosis in HIV-infected and -uninfected African adults using whole blood RNA expression signatures: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

A major impediment to tuberculosis control in Africa is the difficulty in diagnosing active tuberculosis (TB), particularly in the context of HIV infection. We hypothesized that a unique host blood RNA transcriptional signature would distinguish TB from other diseases (OD) in HIV-infected and -uninfected patients, and that this could be the basis of a simple diagnostic test.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Adult case-control cohorts were established in South Africa and Malawi of HIV-infected or -uninfected individuals consisting of 584 patients with either TB (confirmed by culture of Mycobacterium tuberculosis [M.TB] from sputum or tissue sample in a patient under investigation for TB), OD (i.e., TB was considered in the differential diagnosis but then excluded), or healthy individuals with latent TB infection (LTBI). Individuals were randomized into training (80%) and test (20%) cohorts. Blood transcriptional profiles were assessed and minimal sets of significantly differentially expressed transcripts distinguishing TB from LTBI and OD were identified in the training cohort. A 27 transcript signature distinguished TB from LTBI and a 44 transcript signature distinguished TB from OD. To evaluate our signatures, we used a novel computational method to calculate a disease risk score (DRS) for each patient. The classification based on this score was first evaluated in the test cohort, and then validated in an independent publically available dataset (GSE19491). In our test cohort, the DRS classified TB from LTBI (sensitivity 95%, 95% CI [87-100]; specificity 90%, 95% CI [80-97]) and TB from OD (sensitivity 93%, 95% CI [83-100]; specificity 88%, 95% CI [74-97]). In the independent validation cohort, TB patients were distinguished both from LTBI individuals (sensitivity 95%, 95% CI [85-100]; specificity 94%, 95% CI [84-100]) and OD patients (sensitivity 100%, 95% CI [100-100]; specificity 96%, 95% CI [93-100]). Limitations of our study include the use of only culture confirmed TB patients, and the potential that TB may have been misdiagnosed in a small proportion of OD patients despite the extensive clinical investigation used to assign each patient to their diagnostic group.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, blood transcriptional signatures distinguished TB from other conditions prevalent in HIV-infected and -uninfected African adults. Our DRS, based on these signatures, could be developed as a test for TB suitable for use in HIV endemic countries. Further evaluation of the performance of the signatures and DRS in prospective populations of patients with symptoms consistent with TB will be needed to define their clinical value under operational conditions. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

A preliminary study of pneumonia etiology among hospitalized children in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is the leading cause of childhood death in the developing world. Higher-quality etiological data are required to reduce this mortality burden.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study of pneumonia etiology among children aged 1-59 months in rural Kenya. Case patients were hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe pneumonia (SP) or very severe pneumonia (VSP); controls were outpatient children without pneumonia. We collected blood for culture, induced sputum for culture and multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and obtained oropharyngeal swab specimens for multiplex PCR from case patients, and serum for serology and nasopharyngeal swab specimens for multiplex PCR from case patients and controls.

RESULTS

Of 984 eligible case patients, 810 (84%) were enrolled in the study; 232 (29%) had VSP. Blood cultures were positive in 52 of 749 case patients (7%). A predominant potential pathogen was identified in sputum culture in 70 of 417 case patients (17%). A respiratory virus was detected by PCR from nasopharyngeal swab specimens in 486 of 805 case patients (60%) and 172 of 369 controls (47%). Only respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) showed a statistically significant association between virus detection in the nasopharynx and pneumonia hospitalization (odds ratio, 12.5; 95% confidence interval, 3.1-51.5). Among 257 case patients in whom all specimens (excluding serum specimens) were collected, bacteria were identified in 24 (9%), viruses in 137 (53%), mixed viral and bacterial infection in 39 (15%), and no pathogen in 57 (22%); bacterial causes outnumbered viral causes when the results of the case-control analysis were considered.

CONCLUSIONS

A potential etiology was detected in >75% of children admitted with SP or VSP. Except for RSV, the case-control analysis did not detect an association between viral detection in the nasopharynx and hospitalization for pneumonia.

Evaluation of temperature-pulse centile charts in identifying serious bacterial illness: observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Distinguishing serious bacterial infection (SBI) from milder/self-limiting infections is often difficult. Interpretation of vital signs is confounded by the effect of temperature on pulse and respiratory rate. Temperature-pulse centile charts have been proposed to improve the predictive value of pulse rate in the clinical assessment of children with suspected SBI.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the utility of proposed temperature-pulse centile charts in the clinical assessment of children with suspected SBI.

STUDY DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

The predictive value for SBI of temperature-pulse centile categories, pulse centile categories and Advanced Paediatric Life Support (APLS) defined tachycardia were compared among 1360 children aged 3 months to 10 years presenting with suspected infection to a hospital emergency department (ED) in England; and among 325 children who presented to hospitals in the UK with meningococcal disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

SBI.

RESULTS

Among children presenting to the ED, 55 (4.0%) had SBI. Pulse centile category, but not temperature-pulse centile category, was strongly associated with risk of SBI (p=0.0005 and 0.288, respectively). APLS defined tachycardia was also strongly associated with SBI (OR 2.90 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.26), p=0.0002). Among children with meningococcal disease, higher pulse and temperature-pulse centile categories were both associated with more severe disease (p=0.004 and 0.041, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased pulse rate is an important predictor of SBI, supporting National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence recommendations that pulse rate be routinely measured in the assessment of febrile children. Temperature-pulse centile charts performed more poorly than pulse alone in this study. Further studies are required to evaluate their utility in monitoring the clinical progress of sick children over time.

Risk score to stratify children with suspected serious bacterial infection: observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To derive and validate a clinical score to risk stratify children presenting with acute infection.

STUDY DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

Observational cohort study of children presenting with suspected infection to an emergency department in England. Detailed data were collected prospectively on presenting clinical features, laboratory investigations and outcome. Clinical predictors of serious bacterial infection (SBI) were explored in multivariate logistic regression models using part of the dataset, each model was then validated in an independent part of the dataset, and the best model was chosen for derivation of a clinical risk score for SBI. The ability of this score to risk stratify children with SBI was then assessed in the entire dataset.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Final diagnosis of SBI according to criteria defined by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health working group on Recognising Acute Illness in Children.

RESULTS

Data from 1951 children were analysed. 74 (3.8%) had SBI. The sensitivity of individual clinical signs was poor, although some were highly specific for SBI. A score was derived with reasonable ability to discriminate SBI (area under the receiver operator characteristics curve 0.77, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.83) and risk stratify children with suspected SBI.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the potential utility of a clinical score in risk stratifying children with suspected SBI. Further work should aim to validate the score and its impact on clinical decision making in different settings, and ideally incorporate it into a broader management algorithm including additional investigations to further stratify a child's risk.

Paediatric tuberculosis

Tuberculosis continues to cause an unacceptably high toll of disease and death among children worldwide, particularly in the wake of the HIV epidemic. Increased international travel and immigration have led to a rise in childhood tuberculosis rates even in traditionally low burden, industrialised settings, and threaten to promote the emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant strains. Whereas intense scientific and clinical research efforts into novel diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive interventions have focused on tuberculosis in adults, childhood tuberculosis has been relatively neglected. However, children are particularly vulnerable to severe disease and death following infection, and those with latent infection become the reservoir for future transmission following disease reactivation in adulthood, fuelling future epidemics. Further research into the epidemiology, immune mechanisms, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of childhood tuberculosis is urgently needed. Advances in our understanding of tuberculosis in children would provide insights and opportunities to enhance efforts to control this disease.

Childhood tuberculosis: out of sight, out of mind?

Despite significant improvements in tuberculosis (TB) management under the WHO directly observed treatment, short course (DOTS) strategy, childhood TB has been relatively neglected. Children are at high risk of severe disease, and reactivation of latent infection in adulthood perpetuates the epidemic. Almost a million cases of childhood TB are estimated to occur annually, but good-quality epidemiological data are scarce due to inherent difficulties diagnosing paediatric TB. There remains an urgent need both for better diagnostic tests and for robust regional data on the true burden of disease, otherwise childhood TB will remain an essentially 'invisible' and therefore neglected disease.

Salmonella bacteremia in Kenyan children

BACKGROUND

Nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. are among the leading causes of childhood bacteremia in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there are few published clinical series, and the risk factors for acquiring infection are not fully understood.

METHODS

We examined data from 166 cases of nontyphoidal Salmonella bacteremia identified during a large prospective study of bacteremia among all children admitted to a district hospital in Kenya. We also investigated the importance of comorbidities, including current malaria parasitemia, recent malaria (detectable Plasmodium falciparum histidine rich protein 2 in the absence of parasitemia), sickle cell disease, malnutrition and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection.

RESULTS

Nontyphoidal Salmonella bacteremia was associated with severe malnutrition (33% cases), HIV infection (18% cases), a history of illness >7 days, recent hospital admission, splenomegaly, anemia and recent (but not current) malaria but was not associated with diarrhea. Seventy-seven (46%) children with nontyphoidal Salmonella bacteremia fulfilled World Health Organization clinical criteria for a diagnosis of pneumonia. Independent risk factors for death were diarrhea, tachypnea, HIV infection, severe malnutrition, meningitis and young age.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical diagnosis of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella infection in African children is difficult without microbiology facilities because clinical features overlap with other conditions. The common risk factors for nontyphoidal Salmonella infection differ from developed countries, with high a prevalence of malnutrition, HIV, malaria and anemia. Children with nontyphoidal Salmonella infection who fulfill World Health Organization clinical criteria for severe pneumonia may receive ineffective therapy in the form of penicillin.

Incidence of clinically significant bacteraemia in children who present to hospital in Kenya: community-based observational study

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the burden of invasive bacterial disease in sub-Saharan Africa have previously relied on selected groups of patients, such as inpatients; they are, therefore, probably underestimated, potentially hampering vaccine implementation. Our aim was to assess the incidence of bacteraemia in all children presenting to a hospital in Kenya, irrespective of clinical presentation or decision to admit.

METHODS

We did a community-based observational study for which we cultured blood from 1093 children who visited a Kenyan hospital outpatient department. We estimated bacteraemia incidence with a Demographic Surveillance System, and investigated the clinical significance of bacteraemia and the capacity of clinical signs to identify cases.

RESULTS

The yearly incidence of bacteraemia per 100,000 children aged younger than 2 years and younger than 5 years was 2440 (95% CI 1307-3573) and 1192 (692-1693), respectively. Incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia was 597 (416-778) per 100,000 person-years of observation in children younger than age 5 years. Three-quarters of episodes had a clinical focus or required admission, or both; one in six was fatal. After exclusion of children with occult bacteraemia, the incidence of clinically significant bacteraemia per 100,000 children younger than age 2 years or 5 years fell to 1741 (790-2692) and 909 (475-1343), respectively, and the yearly incidence of clinically significant pneumococcal bacteraemia was 436 (132-739) per 100,000 children younger than 5 years old. Clinical signs identified bacteraemia poorly.

INTERPRETATION

Clinically significant bacteraemia in children in Kilifi is twice as common, and pneumococcal bacteraemia four times as common, as previously estimated. Our data support the introduction of pneumococcal vaccine in sub-Saharan Africa.